|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Bremus, Franziskus; Krause, Thomas; Noth, Felix |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger are mortgage, house price, and employment growth. While shocks at the level of shadow banks significantly affect mortgage and house price dynamics, too, they do not matter much for employment. |
| Keywords: | credit supply shocks,mortgage market concentration,real effects from housing markets |
| JEL: | E44 G21 R20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:32021&r=all |
| By: | Vicki Been; Ingrid Ellen; David N. Figlio; Ashlyn Nelson; Stephen Ross; Amy Ellen Schwartz; Leanna Stiefel |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities. |
| JEL: | I2 R3 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28428&r=all |
| By: | ; Fabian Eckert |
| Abstract: | Children's education and economic opportunities differ substantially across US neighborhoods. This paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model that links children's education outcomes to their childhood location. Two endogenous factors determine education choices in each location: local education quality and local labor market access. We estimate the model with US county-level data and study the effects of a school funding equalization on education outcomes and social mobility. The reform's direct effects improve education outcomes among children from low-skill families. However, the effects are weaker in spatial general equilibrium because average returns to education decline and residential and educational choices of low-skill families shift them toward locations with lower education quality. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility; Equality of opportunity; School access; Education reform; Regional labor markets; Economic geography; Spatial economics |
| JEL: | E24 E62 R12 R23 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:90368&r=all |
| By: | Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of foreclosures on house prices in Italy using a large dataset of listings. We estimate that the foreclosure discount is considerable, and this would suggest a high degree of market segmentation and limited spillovers from foreclosures to the market for non-foreclosed homes. However, we find that the entry of foreclosures into the market increases the propensity of home sellers to adjust their list price. Moreover, foreclosure listings have a significant and negative impact on the prices of non-foreclosed homes nearby. Our evidence is quantitatively consistent with the recent literature on the impact of foreclosures on the US housing market. |
| Keywords: | house prices, foreclosures, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | R31 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1325_21&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Duranton (University of Pennsylvania); Diego Puga (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | We develop an urban growth model where human capital spillovers foster entrepreneurship and learning in heterogenous cities. Incumbent residents limit city expansion through planning regulations so that commuting and housing costs do not outweigh productivity gains. The model builds on strong microfoundations, matches key regularities at the city and economywide levels, and generates novel predictions for which we provide evidence. It can be quantified relying on few parameters, provides a basis to estimate the main ones, and remains transparent regarding its mechanisms. We examine various counterfactuals to assess quantitatively the effect of cities on economic growth and aggregate income. |
| Keywords: | Urban growth, agglomeration economies, urban costs, planning regulations, city size distributions. |
| JEL: | C52 R12 D24 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2020_2013&r=all |
| By: | Wellmann, Nicolas; Czarnowske, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the marginal willingness to pay for a reduction of automobile traffic. By using a new structural approach in a hedonic framework by Bishop and Timmins 2019 we are able to avoid common issues in hedonic studies using instrumental variables. Our analysis is based on data from nine large cities in Germany between 2016 and 2019 and includes 533,402 detailed observations at the apartment level as well as for various points of interest. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper to conduct this analysis for Germany. We estimate that the average willingness to pay for a reduction of traffic by city and per year ranges between €30.3-59.2 for a 10% reduction, €93.8-158.3 for a 20% reduction and €190.6-252 for a 30% reduction. The highest willingness to pay for a reduction of traffic is observed in Frankfurt am Main, the lowest in Leipzig. Further, we compute the expected gains for a reduction of traffic at the city level. In addition to the willingness to pay for a reduction of traffic, this considers the composition of the road network as well as for the number of households. Accordingly, these expected gains amount to €163,970-1,019,454€ for a 10% reduction, €484,023-3,261,837 for a 20% reduction, and €1,018,240-6,727,148 for a 30% reduction. The highest expected gains for a reduction of traffic is observed in Munich, the lowest in Leipzig |
| Keywords: | willingness to pay,traffic,air pollution,hedonic price models,rent prices,environmental policy |
| JEL: | O18 Q51 R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:361&r=all |
| By: | Mikkel Hermansen |
| Abstract: | Regions with large cities are driving growth in Bulgaria, while many rural regions suffer from depopulation and rapid ageing. Improving living standards across all regions will require better coverage and access to public services, notably in health and long-term care. Policy action to integrate the Roma, around one-tenth of the population most of which live in poverty and socially excluded neighbourhoods, would help to tackle labour shortages in the medium term in addition to improving well-being. Investments in infrastructure and housing reform are needed to boost mobility and strengthen linkages to national and international supply chains. This would also benefit agriculture that accounts for almost a third of employment in lagging regions and has undergone a rapid restructuring, polarising and distorting the sector towards low-value added products. While the coronavirus outbreak has hit the tourism industry hard, the diverse Bulgarian landscape offers opportunities for developing profitable experience-based tourism, when international travel resumes. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, Bulgaria, health care, housing markets, infrastructure, regions, Roma, tourism |
| JEL: | H71 H75 I18 J15 J61 O18 Q18 R10 R31 R58 Z32 |
| Date: | 2021–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1663-en&r=all |
| By: | Jung, Philip (TU Dortmund); Korfmann, Philipp (TU Dortmund); Preugschat, Edgar |
| Abstract: | We document large and persistent spatial dispersion in unemployment rates, vacancies, labor market tightness, labor market flows, and wages for Germany on a granular regional level. We show that in the 1990s differences in inflows from employment to unemployment were the key driver of regional dispersion in unemployment rates while in the 2000s outflows became more important. To account for the documented regional dispersion we develop a spatial search and matching model with risk-averse agents, endogenous separations and unobservable search effort that leads to moral hazard and quantify the relative importance of 4 potential structural driving forces: dispersion in productivity, in the bargaining strength of workers, in idiosyncratic risk components and in regional matching efficiency. Based on region-specific estimates of these factors we then study the resulting policy trade-off between insurance, regional redistribution and efficiency. We design (optimal) region-specific labor market policies that can be implemented using hiring subsidies, layoff taxes, unemployment insurance benefits and transfers financed by social insurance contributions. We find that a move towards an optimal tax system that explicitly conditions on regional characteristics could lead to sizable welfare and employment gains. |
| Keywords: | optimal labor market policies, regional unemployment |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14204&r=all |
| By: | Pouya Rezaeinia; André de Palma; Robin Lindsey (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Tradable permits (TP) have been proposed as a tool for controlling road traffic congestion. Unlike with tolls, travelers in aggregate do not incur net out-of-pocket costs if permits are distributed free. Moreover, if travel conditions do not change, a TP scheme can be designed to support the same traffic flows as tolls. However, the two instruments are no longer equivalent if conditions fluctuate, and neither permit quantities nor toll levels can be adjusted accordingly. In this paper, we compare the economic efficiency of TP and tolls during a morning peak travel period on a stylized urban road network. Road link capacities are susceptible to temporary reductions due to incidents, bad weather, road repairs or other shocks. We apply the dynamic traffic network simulator METROPOLIS in which travelers make mode, departure time and route choice decisions. Permit quantities and tolls are chosen to control the number of vehicle trips into the city centre with the goal of maximizing welfare defined by expected social surplus. We find that tolls outperform TP if road capacities are perfectly correlated (e.g., due to bad weather), whereas TP outperform tolls if capacity fluctuations are independent (e.g., due to crashes). |
| Keywords: | Congestion tolls; permits, departure time, uncertainly, network, second-best |
| JEL: | D62 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2021-09&r=all |
| By: | Gianluca Orsatti; Francesco Quatraro; Alessandra Scandura |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the association between region-level recombinant capabilities and the generation of green technologies (GTs), together with their interplay with the intensity of academic involvement in innovation dynamics. The analysis focuses on Italian NUTS 3 regions, over the period 1998-2009. We show that the local capacity to introduce novel combinations is positively and strongly associated to the generation of GTs, while the involvement of academic inventors in local innovation dynamics shows an interesting compensatory role when local contexts lack such capacity. |
| Keywords: | green technologies, academic inventors, recombinant novelty. |
| JEL: | O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:617&r=all |
| By: | Gaurav Khanna; Wenquan Liang; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Ran Song |
| Abstract: | Migration and pollution are two defining features of China's impressive growth performance over the last 30 years. In this paper we study the migration response to pollution in Chinese cities, and its consequences for productivity and welfare. We document a robust pattern in which skilled workers emigrate more in response to pollution than the unskilled. Their greater sensitivity to air quality holds up in cross-sectional variation across cities, panel variation with individual fixed-effects, and when instrumenting for pollution using distant power-plants upwind of cities, or thermal inversions that trap pollution. Pollution therefore changes the spatial distribution of skilled and unskilled workers, which results in higher returns to skill in cities that the educated migrate away from. We quantify the loss in aggregate productivity due to this re-sorting by estimating a model of demand and supply of skilled and unskilled workers across Chinese cities. Counterfactual simulations from the estimated model show that reducing pollution would increase productivity through spatial re-sorting by approximately as much as the direct health benefits of clean air. Physical and institutional restrictions on mobility exacerbate welfare losses. People's dislike of pollution explains a substantial portion of the wage gap between cities. |
| JEL: | E24 J61 O18 Q52 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28401&r=all |
| By: | Elliot Anenberg; Tess Scharlemann |
| Abstract: | The contrast between the labor market and house prices during the pandemic has been stark. In this note, we document a strong positive relationship between forbearance takeup and house price growth at the county level, controlling for the unemployment rate and other factors. |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-03-19-2&r=all |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Autonomous University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Alfonso Herranz-Loncán (University of Barcelona and 'Antoni de Capmany' Research Centre); Filippo Tassinari (University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact that Spanish road construction had on local population growth between 1787 and 1857. We find that the increase in market access associated to road accessibility had a substantial effect on local population growth. The impact was substantially higher on the municipalities that were connected earlier and that had a more diversified occupational structure. By contrast, the effect of the new network on population growth was negative in municipalities close but without direct access to the roads. We interpret these findings as evidence of a process of rural-to-rural migration due to the new roads. |
| Keywords: | roads, accessibility, market access, population growth, pre-railway transport, Spain |
| JEL: | H54 N73 N93 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0209&r=all |
| By: | Liam Brunt (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | A large literature characterizes urbanisation as the result of productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. We incorporate economic geography elements into a growth model and suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that sets off sustained economic growth. The model is consistent with the fact that urbanisation rates in Western Europe, and notably in England, reached unprecedented levels by the mid-18 th century, the eve of the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | industrialization,urbanisation,innovation,long-run growth |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03123659&r=all |
| By: | Nicola Cortinovis; Zhiling Wang; Hengky Kurniawan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore how spillovers from multinational enterprises (MNEs) spread and impact domestic firms through different channels and at various spatial scales. Taking a firm-level approach, we test whether industrial relatedness mediates spillover effects from MNEs over and above horizontal and vertical linkages traditionally identified by the literature. Thanks to fine- grained geographical information, we further investigate the spatial reach of the spillovers and how they are associated with domestic firms’ characteristics such as absorptive capacity and technological sophistication. Our hypotheses are tested on a panel data set of Indonesian manufacturing firms census between 2002 to 2009. We find that domestic firms have higher total factor productivity when being exposed to a higher share of output from multinational firms in related industries, on top of the widely acknowledged horizontal and vertical MNE spillovers. We also show that MNE spillovers are sensitive to distance, with relatedness-mediated ones being detected between 30 and 60 km from the municipality of the MNE. Regarding heterogeneity, large firms benefit from productivity-enhancing relatedness spillovers at a wider spatial distance (up to 90km), and firms in less-advanced industries benefit from relatedness mediated effects as much as those in more advanced industries. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises, spillovers, industrial relatedness, spatial effects. |
| JEL: | D24 F23 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2111&r=all |
| By: | Marc Anderes (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We examine the dynamic effects of housing demand shocks on a large set of U.S. macroeconomic series and detailed household balance sheet components for four wealth percentile groups. The results show that a positive housing shock translates into a large and persistent boom of economic activity, an expansion of credit and an increase of interest rates. While households of all wealth percentile groups make heavy use of home equity-based borrowing, we find a larger consumer spending sensitivity for weaker balance sheet households. This is supported by the elasticities of consumption with respect to house prices implied by our structural dynamic factor model. A historical decomposition suggests that housing demand shocks have largely contributed to the pronounced drop in poorer households’ consumption during the Great Recession. Variance decompositions indicate that the identified housing shock has high explanatory power for key economic indicators, housing indices and household balance sheet series. |
| Keywords: | : Housing demand shocks, Household balance sheets, Bayesian dynamic factor model |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E32 E44 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:21-492&r=all |
| By: | Bondy, Malvina; Roth, Sefi; Sager, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies have examined the various determinants of crime. However, the link between crime and air pollution has been largely overlooked. In this paper we study whether exposure to ambient air pollution affects crime using daily administrative data for London in 2004-05. For identification, we estimate models with ward fixed effects and implement two instrumental variable strategies, using atmospheric inversions and wind direction as exogenous shocks to local pollution. We find that air pollution has a positive and statistically significant impact on overall crime and on several major crime categories, including those with economic motives. Importantly, the effect also occurs at pollution levels which are well below current regulatory standards and appears to be unevenly distributed across income groups. Our results suggest that reducing air pollution in urban areas may be an effective measure to reduce crime and that air pollution forecasts can be used to improve predictive policing. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; crime; economic incentives |
| JEL: | H23 K42 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:102198&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Bardin; Alice Ann Gola |
| Abstract: | Using data from the School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study, this paper seeks to re-examine the association between students’ (N = 1963) weight status and participation in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and School Breakfast Program (SBP) since the implementation of these policy changes to determine whether, and how, this relationship has changed. |
| Keywords: | body mass index, School Nutrition Meal Cost Study, school meal participation, National School Lunch Program, weight status |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:f4a170c423594ec8ba0fa53b3f794ce6&r=all |
| By: | Dijkstra, Lewis; Poelman, Hugo; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Support for parties opposed to European Union (EU) integration has risen rapidly, and a wave of discontent has taken over the EU. This discontent is purportedly driven by the very factors behind the surge of populism: differences in age, wealth, education, or economic and demographic trajectories. This paper maps the geography of EU discontent across more than 63,000 electoral districts in the EU-28 and assesses which factors push anti-EU voting. The results show that the anti-EU vote is mainly a consequence of local economic and industrial decline in combination with lower employment and a less educated workforce. Many of the other suggested causes of discontent, by contrast, matter less than expected, or their impact varies depending on levels of opposition to European integration. |
| Keywords: | anti-Europeanism; anti-system voting; populism; economic decline; industrial decline; education; migration; European Union |
| JEL: | D72 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101307&r=all |
| By: | Matteo Laffi; Ron Boschma; |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to shed light on the role played by regional knowledge bases in Industry 3.0 in fostering new technologies in Industry 4.0 in European regions (NUTS3) over the period 1991-2015. We find that 4.0 technologies appear to be quite related to 3.0 technologies, with some heterogeneity among different technology fields. The paper investigates the geographical implications. We find that the probability of developing Industry 4.0 technologies is higher in regions that are specialised in Industry 3.0 technologies. However, other types of knowledge bases also sustain regional diversification in Industry 4.0 technologies. |
| Keywords: | Fourth Industrial Revolution, Industry 4.0, regional innovation, patents, knowledge space, relatedness, EU regions |
| JEL: | B52 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2112&r=all |
| By: | Löffler, Max; Siegloch, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We analyze the welfare implications of property taxation. Using a sufficient statistics approach, we show that the tax incidence depends on how housing prices, labor and other types of incomes as well as public services respond to property tax changes. Empirically, we exploit the German institutional setting with 5,200 municipal tax reforms for identification. We find that higher taxes are fully passed on to rental prices after three years. The pass-through is lower when housing supply is inelastic. Combining reduced form estimates with our theoretical framework, we simulate the welfare effects of property taxes and show that they are regressive. |
| Keywords: | property taxation,welfare,tax incidence,local labor markets,rental housing |
| JEL: | H22 H41 H71 R13 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21026&r=all |
| By: | Salamah Ansari (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode) |
| Abstract: | Situating Indian urbanism, this paper attempts to delineate resilience as a central paradigm in the discourse on sustainable urban transformation. This paper highlights how the notion of resilience gets misconstrued to represent only urban transformation while ignoring an equally important aspect of urban adaptation. In India, the pressure to create world-class cities is so high, that there are frequent demolition of urban slums and informal settlements for urban gentrification. This exclusionary process often ignores that resilience is also about the protection of existing adaptive structures and not only about transforming urban areas by creating world-class cities. Microstoria antenarrative analysis is used as a methodology to capture the lived experiences of people affected by slum demolition in Delhi from 1990 through 2020. This analysis provides critical evidence against the grand narratives concerning urban transformation which form an integral part of grand narratives of macro- history of Indian urbanization. Resilience in under-researched in urban development and increased attention to resilience in urbanization can foster sustainable outcomes. Such a systematic inquiry can bolster the efforts towards achieving resilience which can then be instrumental in achieving inclusive participatory urbanization. |
| Keywords: | resilience, sustainable urban development, participatory urbanization |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iik:wpaper:394&r=all |
| By: | Honorata Bogusz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Labfam, Data Science Lab WNE UW) |
| Abstract: | In this article I provide a quantitative analysis of suburban migration patterns in Warsaw, Poland. Basing this analysis on the extended gravity model of migration, an econometric panel model was built to identify key pulling factors for migrants who move from Warsaw to its suburbs. The role of residential lot prices and the resulting possible endogeneity are also discussed. It was confirmed that migrants choose boroughs of greater population density that have higher average relative income and more amenities, but at a smaller distance to Warsaw’s city center and with lower residential lot prices relative to those in Warsaw. |
| Keywords: | gravity model of migration, suburbanization, Mundlak terms, Correlated Random Effects |
| JEL: | R23 P25 C23 C51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2021-01&r=all |
| By: | Oto-Peralías, Daniel (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Gutiérrez Mora, Dolores |
| Abstract: | This paper uses text analysis to measure gender bias in cities through the use of street names. Focusing on the case of Spain, we collect data on 15 million street names to analyze gender inequality in urban toponyms. We calculate for each Spanish municipality and each year from 2001 to 2020 a variable measuring the percentage of streets with female names over the total number of streets with male and female names. Our results reveal a strong gender imbalance in Spanish cities: the percentage of streets named after women over the total named after men and women is only 12% in 2020. We also observe that there are substantial differences across the Spanish regions, and concerning new streets, gender bias is lower but still far from parity. The second part of the paper analyzes the correlation of our indicator of gender bias in street names with the cultural factor it is supposed to capture, with the results suggesting that it constitutes a useful cultural measure of gender inequality at the city level. This research has policy implications since it helps to measure a relevant phenomenon, given the strong symbolic power attributed to street names, which has been elusive to quantify so far. |
| Date: | 2021–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:b9n4k&r=all |
| By: | Arden Hall; Ramain Quinn Maingi |
| Abstract: | An implication of the dual trigger theory of default is that mortgage borrowers who experience an unexpected financial reverse will prepay their mortgage rather than default if their equity in the house is positive. We test this idea with a new data set created by matching mortgage servicing records and credit bureau records to classify prepayments by what happens subsequently. In particular, we can identify a subset of prepayments that seems consistent with the dual trigger theory. If the theory is correct, these prepayments should exhibit similarities to defaults in the data set rather than other prepayments. We test this idea and find that these prepayments are in fact more closely related to defaults than to other prepayments. However, our data also support a role for strategic default. Understanding these relationships may be critical in predicting mortgage default when house prices decline after a long period of increases. While our work is only a first step in this direction, we believe that a better understanding how prepayments may be driven by financial reverses would be valuable for participants in and regulators of mortgage markets. |
| Keywords: | mortgage finance; prepayment; default; nested logit model |
| JEL: | D12 G51 R21 |
| Date: | 2021–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:90369&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Duranton (University of Pennsylvania); Diego Puga (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | Urban density boosts productivity and innovation, improves access to goods and services, reduces typical travel distances, encourages energy-efficient construction and transport, and facilitates sharing scarce amenities. However, density is also synonymous with crowding, makes living and moving in cities more costly, and concentrates exposure to pollution and disease. We explore the appropriate measurement of density and describe how it is both a cause and a consequence of the evolution of cities. We then discuss whether and how policy should target density and why the trade-off between its pros and cons is unhappily resolved by market and political forces. |
| Keywords: | Density, agglomeration, urban costs. |
| JEL: | R12 R31 R32 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2020_2015&r=all |
| By: | Camila Vammalle; Indre Bambalaite |
| Abstract: | The bulk of government investment is done at the local level in OECD countries, representing on average 41% of total public investment. Most studies on subnational government debt focus on the regional or state level, and very few studies analyse public investment specifically by local governments. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a framework to analyse the key factors, which affect the capacity of local governments to fund and finance public investment, and illustrates the framework with five case studies: Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Netherlands and New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | fiscal federalism, intergovernmental coordination, public financing frameworks, public investment, subnational governments |
| JEL: | H54 H74 R53 |
| Date: | 2021–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaab:34-en&r=all |
| By: | Leonardo Becchetti; Gianluigi Conzo; Pierluigi Conzo; Francesco Salustri |
| Abstract: | The uneven geographical distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Italy is a puzzle given the intense flow of movements among the different geographical areas before lockdown decisions. To shed light on it, we test the effect of the quality of air (as measured by particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) and lockdown restrictions on daily adverse COVID-19 outcomes at province level. We find that air pollution is positively correlated with adverse outcomes of the epidemic, with lockdown being strongly significant and more effective in reducing deceases in more polluted areas. Results are robust to different methods including cross-section, pooled and fixed-effect panel regressions (controlling for spatial correlation), instrumental variable regressions, and difference-in differences estimates of lockdown decisions through predicted counterfactual trends. They are consistent with the consolidated body of literature in previous medical studies suggesting that poor quality of air creates chronic exposure to adverse outcomes from respiratory diseases. The estimated correlation does not change when accounting for other factors such as temperature, commuting flows, quality of regional health systems, share of public transport users, population density, the presence of Chinese community, and proxies for industry breakdown such as the share of small (artisan) firms. Our findings provide suggestions for investigating uneven geographical distribution patterns in other countries, and have implications for environmental and lockdown policies. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, particulate matter, lockdown, economic activity. |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 J18 H12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:614&r=all |
| By: | Luis Ayala (Facultad de Derecho, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, ES); Ana Herrero-Alcade (Facultad de Derecho, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, ES); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of welfare benefit levels within a highly fiscally decentralized context. More specifically, we analyze the role of mimicking as a driver of the institutional design of subnational government policies in the absence of federal co-ordination and financing. Empirically, we focus on the welfare benefit programs of Spanish regional governments during the period 1996-2015. Our results strongly support the significant role played by mimicking: regional public agents observe what their peers are doing and act accordingly, and this holds even in a context of low mobility of households. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2107&r=all |
| By: | Kuang-Liang Chang; Charles Ka Yui Leung |
| Abstract: | The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) changes the relative economic riskiness and risk-adjusted-performance of different asset markets. While the empirical distribution for stock return shifted to the right and became more concentrated around the mean after the GFC, the real estate market counterparts moved to the left and became more spread out. The economic risk of the OFHEO and Case-Shiller housing indices was smaller than the counterpart of the equity REIT (EREITs) market before the financial crisis, it substantially increased. Also, the economic performance of the OFHEO and Case-Shiller housing indices decreased after the financial crisis. They are below the performance indices of the stock and EREITs markets. The ex-post real estate premium vanishes. If we presume the "best model" to be the same before and after the GFC, we could severely misestimate the risk after the GFC. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1124&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Chareyron; Tidiane Ly; Yohann Trouvé-Sargison |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp21-03&r=all |
| By: | Isabel Martinez (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | I analyze mobility responses to the unique introduction of regressive local income schedule in the Swiss Canton of Obwalden in 2006, which was aimed at attracting the top 1%. Difference-in-Differences estimations comparing Obwalden to all other cantons confirm that the reform successfully attracted rich taxpayers: by 2016, the share of rich in the canton more than doubled and average income per taxpayer was 16% higher relative to 2005. Using individual tax data and an instrumental variable approach, I find a large elasticity of the stock of rich taxpayers of 1.5–2 with respect to the average net-of-tax rate. The corresponding flow elasticity ranges from 6.5 to 10. However, the reform did not yield any Laffer effects. Finally, I find positive effects on local employment: the number of jobs per 1,000 inhabitants rose by an estimated 2.3% relative to other cantons and compared to 2005. However, these employment effects are likely driven by a simultaneous reduction of the corporate tax rate. |
| Keywords: | : Mobility; Personal income tax; Local taxes; Tax competition; Regressive income tax |
| JEL: | H24 H31 H71 H73 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:21-490&r=all |
| By: | Andrea La Nauze |
| Abstract: | I test whether economic incentives dampen peer effects in public-good settings. I study how a visible and subsidized contribution to a public good (installing solar panels) affects peer contributions that are neither subsidized nor visible (electing green power). Exploiting spatial variation in the feasibility of installing solar panels, I find that panels increase voluntary purchases of green power by neighbors. However, using sharp changes in government incentives over time, I find that the magnitude of the spillover depends on the level of subsidies to solar. The results support the hypothesis that signals drive peer responses to visible public-good contributions and that economic incentives blur those signals. |
| Keywords: | motivation, public goods contribution, solar panels, green energy, environmental public goods |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8940&r=all |
| By: | Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P.; Burret, Heiko Tobias |
| Abstract: | Marginal rates of contribution (MRC), i.e., the rates at which additional revenues are skimmed via larger contributions or lower transfer receipts, quantify the incentives of a fiscal equalization scheme. The present paper is the first to calculate the marginal rates of contribution for the Laender (states) in the German fiscal equalization scheme for each of the 50 years since its establishment in 1970 and over five major reforms, taking into account all relevant revenues. Our results show that MRC have been at a consistently high level. Until 2019 the scheme induced an almost full skimming of additional tax revenues of recipient states. With the system's latest reform in 2020, MRC did increase further. Recipient states now face an over-skimming of additional tax revenues and thus, massive fiscal disincentives to maintain their own tax base. While these findings have been widely expected, comprehensive evidence has been missing so far. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal equalization,Marginal contribution rates,Constitutional reform |
| JEL: | H71 H73 H77 H11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:2104&r=all |
| By: | Paul Brandily (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Clément Brébion (CBS - Copenhagen Business School [Copenhagen]); Simon Briole (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Laura Khoury (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | While a burgeoning literature has documented the unequal distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases,there is still little evidence on the causal effect of the epidemic on mortality inequalities. In this pa-per, we exploit exhaustive municipality-level data in France, one of the most severely hit country in the world, to identify a persistent negative relationship between income and excess mortality withinurban areas. Over the year 2020, the poorest municipalities experienced a 42% higher increase inexcess mortality. Our analyses further reveal that the policy responses to the epidemic - including thelockdowns - play no role in this heterogeneous impact. Last, we show that both labour-market expo-sure and housing conditions are major determinants of the direct effect of the epidemic on mortalityinequalities, but that their respective role depends on the state of the epidemic and the lockdown policy |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,poverty,inequality,mortality,labor market,housing conditions |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03154551&r=all |
| By: | Sandeep Yadav (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode); Rajesh Srivinas Upadhyayula (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode) |
| Abstract: | This study examines, whether emerging market firms use global linkages as a substitute to the location in geographical clusters to promote the speed of foreign market entry. Drawing from economic geography, we find a slower speed of foreign market entry by firms located outside geographical clusters in the home country as compared to firms inside clusters. This relationship is further moderated by the firm's cognitive proximity in the foreign markets (measured as a firm’s extent of informal global linkages). Cognitive proximity increases the transfer of tacit knowledge and weakens the negative impact of firm cluster absence on the speed of foreign entry. We test the proposed hypotheses using the cox proportional hazard model based on a longitudinal sample of 747 Indian firms in the information technology industry (IT) from 2000 to 2019. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets; emerging market firm; theory of EMNE; clusters; cognitive proximity |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iik:wpaper:404&r=all |
| By: | Sekou Keita (IAB - Institute for Employment Research); Thomas Renault (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jérôme Valette (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Immigration and crime are two first-order issues that are often considered jointly in people's minds. This paper analyzes how media reporting policies on crime impact natives' attitudes towards immigration. We depart from most studies by investigating the content of crime-related articles instead of their coverage. Specifically, we use a radical change in local media reporting on crime in Germany as a natural experiment. This unique framework allows us to estimate whether systematically disclosing the places of origin of criminals affects natives' attitudes towards immigration. We combine individual survey data collected between January 2014 and December 2018 from the German SocioEconomic Panel with data from more than 545,000 crime-related articles in German newspapers and data on their diffusion across the country. Our results indicate that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals, especially when offenders are natives, significantly reduces natives' concerns about immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration,Crime,Media Bias |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03167833&r=all |
| By: | Adachi, Yoshimi; Kitamura, Tomoki |
| Abstract: | This study examines the Japanese government’s financial support program that began providing educational cost relief to high school students in 2010. The program has since been providing partial support for private high school tuition, depending on household income. Our results indicate that this financial support program overall has an insignificant impact on education-related expenditures, while we have some marginal evidence of educational cost reduction depending on the specifications. |
| Keywords: | Educational financial aid, High School Tuition Support Fund Program in Japan, Education related expenditure, Private high school choice |
| JEL: | A21 D12 D4 |
| Date: | 2021–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106769&r=all |
| By: | Hande Inanc; Megan McIntyre |
| Abstract: | In 2020, youth unemployment increased significantly across all states due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on economic activity and employment opportunities for youth. |
| Keywords: | Youth Unemployment, unemployment rates, state level |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:c08c4ee0a6554680a27d06b956355eb3&r=all |
| By: | Bellemare, Charles (Université Laval); Kyui, Natalia (Bank of Canada); Lacroix, Guy (Université Laval) |
| Abstract: | We show that survey and administrative data-based estimates of a panel data model of earnings, employment, and outmigration yield very different qualitative and quantitative predictions. Survey-based estimates substantially overpredict outmigration, in particular for lower performing immigrants. Consequently, employment and earnings of immigrants who remain in the country are overpredicted relative to model predictions from administrative data. Importantly, estimates from both data sources find opposite self-selection mechanisms into outmigration. Differences hold despite using the same cohort, survey period, and observable characteristics. Differences in predictions are driven by difficulties of properly separating non-random sample attrition from selective outmigration in survey data. |
| Keywords: | sample attrition, outmigration, measurement errors, employment and earnings |
| JEL: | C33 J31 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14217&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Forrestal; Elizabeth Potamites; Joanne Guthrie; Nora Paxton |
| Abstract: | Using data from the first School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study, this analysis compared the contributions of school and non-school foods to the energy intakes and diet quality of students classified as food insecure, marginally secure, or food secure. |
| Keywords: | food security, National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, free and reduced-price lunch, energy intakes, Healthy Eating Index, school-age children, School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study, school nutrition dietary assessment study |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:34ded49c2a464d57857a407d427a4729&r=all |
| By: | Runato A. Basañes (University of Antique, Sibalom, Antique, Philippines Author-2-Name: Junelene May C. Dagol Author-2-Workplace-Name: Department of Education, San Jose District, Schools Division of Antique, Philippines Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - The primary purpose of this research work is to determine the relationship between work engagement of public elementary school (PES) teachers and organizational support in the District of San Jose, Schools Division of Antique, Philippines. Methodology/Technique - Descriptive-correlational design was employed in undertaking this study. A total sample of 167 was purposively selected among the PES teachers in San Jose District, Schools Division of Antique for the survey. The researchers adapted the accomplished Individual Performance Commitment and Review Form of teachers and Eisenberger's (1986) perceived Organizational Support Scale for the study. Findings - The results show that PES teachers' level of work engagement was very satisfactory in all of 4 work engagement aspects - teaching-learning process, student outcomes, community involvement, and professional growth and development. The results also indicated that the PES teachers have a high organizational support level when the different variables were considered in this study - teaching load, teaching position, sex, and marital status. Moreover, looking into the PES teachers' work engagement, a significant difference was noted in community involvement when grouped according to teaching load; and professional growth and development when grouped according to sex. However, no significant difference was noted in all aspects when grouped according to a teaching position and marital status. A significant difference was also pointed out in organizational support in terms of teaching load, teaching position, sex, and marital status. Finally, there was no significant relationship between work engagement and organizational support of PES teachers. Novelty - The study suggests that the Department of Education subjects its personnel to continuing education, training, seminars, and values formation activities to help teachers become more effective in delivering their daily obligations, engage in their work for skills development, and make them feel they are given much attention by the organization where they belong. |
| Keywords: | Community Involvement; Organizational Support; Professional Growth and Development; Student Outcomes; Teaching-learning Process; Work Engagement |
| JEL: | M31 M39 |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr263&r=all |
| By: | Christian Desmaris (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Guillaume Monchambert (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the productive efficiency of French regional rail operators. Benefiting from unique databases (2012-2016), we use a panel stochastic frontier model to measure and explain the productive efficiency. We consider the regional monopoly nature of these operators by introducing specific contract-related variables into the model. The technical efficiency level of regional operators ranges from 59 to 98 per cent, revealing a high degree of heterogeneity in productive performance between regional operators. Factors related to the societal environment (density and delinquency rate), the characteristics of the rail system (network length and number of stations) and contractual design are significantly correlated with the technical efficiency. The policy implications of these results are substantial for both public authorities and rail operators. |
| Keywords: | TER,France,Stochastic frontiers,Regional rail passenger market,Rail regulation,Productive efficiency,Working Papers du LAET |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03118747&r=all |
| By: | Chenevier, Randall; Piper, Alan T.; Willis, Craig |
| Abstract: | Every year many Chileans migrate, an increasing trend. Academic literature often highlights the roles of individual well-being and crime among important reasons for migration in general. We contribute to this literature by focusing on Chile. This investigation considers, with multiple years of a secondary dataset, the intention to migrate and, with a primary data sample, the post migration life of Chileans. We find that Chileans are more likely to migrate if they are less satisfied with life, have themselves or a family member been a victim of crime, are highly dissatisfied with their income, at least reasonably well-educated, self-employed and male. We also present tentative evidence that, for those who have migrated, being a victim of crime when in Chile is associated with greater life satisfaction in the host country. Policy implications are also presented, reflecting the desire of the Chilean government desire to slow this increasing trend of migration. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Migration; Life Satisfaction; Chile; Latinobarometer |
| JEL: | F22 I31 N36 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106502&r=all |
| By: | Kevin Genna (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christian Ghiglino (Department of Economics, University of Essex - University of Essex); Kazuo Nishimura (RIEB, Kobe University - Kobe University); Alain Venditti (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EDHEC - EDHEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | How will structural change unfold beyond the rise of services? Motivated by the observed dynamics within the service sector we propose a model of structural change in which productivity is endogenous and output is produced with two intermediate substitutable capital goods. In the progressive sector the accumulation of knowledge leads to an unbounded increase in TFP, as sector becoming asymptotically dominant. We are then able to recover the increasing shares of workers, the increasing real and nominal shares of the output observed in progressive service and IT sectors in the US. Interestingly, the economy follows a growth path converging to a particular level of wealth that depends on the initial price of capital and knowledge. As a consequence, countries with the same fundamentals but lower initial wealth will be characterized by lower asymptotic wealth. |
| Keywords: | two-sector model,technological knowledge,constant elasticity of substitution,non-balanced endogenous growth,structural change,Kaldor and Kuznets facts |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03164854&r=all |
| By: | Howard Bodenhorn |
| Abstract: | Penology in the Jim Crow South centered on the chain gang. Gangs ostensibly served three purposes: their severity served as a deterrent; their putting convicts to work on roads and other public improvements reduced the taxpayers’ costs of infrastructure; and their discriminatory implementation reinforced the social order defined by Jim Crow. Drawing on insights from the economics of crime literature, this paper analyzes whether chain gangs reduced road maintenance costs. Using a fixed-effects design, the analysis finds that the costs of using gangs in road maintenance were marginally lower on average than using wage labor. The results are consistent with county officials choosing between convict and free labor in manner consistent with minimizing taxpayers’ costs. |
| JEL: | K42 N12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28405&r=all |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn; Thomas Chaney; Tarek Alexander Hassan; Aakaash Rao |
| Abstract: | We study how decades-long exposure to individuals of a given foreign descent shapes natives' attitudes and behavior toward that group, exploiting plausibly exogenous shocks to the ancestral composition of US counties. We combine several existing large-scale surveys, cross-county data on implicit prejudice, a newly-collected national survey, and individualized donations data from large charitable organizations. We first show that greater long-term exposure to Arab-Muslims: i) decreases both explicit and implicit prejudice against Arab-Muslims, ii) reduces support for policies and political candidates hostile toward Arab-Muslims, iii) increases charitable donations to Arab countries, iv) leads to more personal contact with Arab-Muslim individuals, and v) increases knowledge of Arab-Muslims and Islam in general. We then generalize our analysis, showing that exposure to any given foreign ancestry leads to more altruistic behavior toward that group. |
| JEL: | D83 D91 J15 P16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28448&r=all |
| By: | Isil R. Yavuz (Bryant University); Berrak Bahadir (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the moderating influence of home country ethnic diversity in the relationship between migrant remittances and new business creation in developing countries. By employing the theories of transaction cost, social network, social identity, and trust, we argue that ethnic diversity is negatively associated with new business creation; nevertheless, it strengthens the positive association between migrant remittances and new business creation in developing countries. We test our hypotheses on 64 developing countries over an 11-year period (2006-2016). This paper contributes to entrepreneurship literature by emphasizing the importance of home country ethnic diversity in channeling migrants’ remittances to new business creation in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Migrant Remittances, New Business Creation, Ethnic Diversity, Developing Countries |
| JEL: | L26 M13 J15 F24 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2110&r=all |
| By: | Mariani, Fabio (Université catholique de Louvain); Mercier, Marion (Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Contrary to popular perception, empirical evidence suggests that immigrants do not necessarily commit more crimes than natives, in spite of having lower legitimate earning opportunities. To make sense of this, we propose a novel theoretical framework based on a predator/prey model of crime, where endogenous migration decisions and career choices (between licit and illicit activities) are jointly determined. In this setting, we show that the involvement of migrants in crime crucially depends on self-selection into migration, as well as on productivity and institutional quality in the host economy. In particular, immigrants may display a lower crime rate than natives even if they are less productive on the honest labor market – and this result can still hold if career choices are revised after migration. We also find that stricter immigration policies could induce an adverse selection of migrants, and eventually attract more foreign-born criminals. Finally, a dynamic extension of our model can account for the higher crime rates of second-generation immigrants, and highlights the critical role of immigration and assimilation for the long-run evolution of crime and institutions in host countries. |
| Keywords: | migration, crime |
| JEL: | F22 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14215&r=all |
| By: | Camila Vammalle; Indre Bambalaite |
| Abstract: | This paper describes and analyses the fiscal rules for subnational governments (SNGs) in OECD countries immediately prior to the COVID-19 crisis. It is based on information from the 2019 survey of fiscal rules for SNGs by the OECD Network on Fiscal Relations across Levels of Government. The paper analyses the details of the application of these SNG fiscal rules, and shows that the effective stringency of statutorily similar rules may vary greatly. |
| Keywords: | fiscal federalism, fiscal rules, intergovernmental fiscal relations, subnational governments |
| JEL: | H72 H74 H81 |
| Date: | 2021–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaab:35-en&r=all |
| By: | Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez (Escuela Internacional de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de La Sabana, Chía, Colombia.); Jorge Hirs-Garzón (Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC, US.); Sebastián Sanin-Restrepo (Banco de la República, Bogotá, Colombia.); Jorge M. Uribe (Riskcenter, University of Barcelona, Faculty of Economics and Business, Open University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of macroeconomic and financial U.S. uncertainty shocks on international housing markets using a multi-country FAVAR model. This approach allows the identification of the effects of different sources of uncertainty on the global economy by imposing natural contemporaneous restrictions on the data generating process, which cannot be used within a single-country perspective. We find that financial uncertainty has an immediate negative effect on most REIT markets around the world lasting between one and three quarters. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty is diverse. Various countries do not experience a negative effect on REIT markets. Some countries even show a positive response about a year after, suggesting housing markets outside the U.S. may benefit from increases in U.S. uncertainty, arguably due to the investment diversification opportunities they offer during times of economic distress in the U.S. The response of credit to uncertainty shocks resembles the response of REIT returns, but in a lower magnitude. This finding suggests that while housing markets and credit have important feedback mechanisms, housing markets respond also directly to financial uncertainty developments through the expectations channel. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Housing markets, REITs, FAVAR model. JEL classification: R31, D80, E44, F21, F44, G15. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202105&r=all |
| By: | Du Caju, Philip; Périlleux, Guillaume; Rycx, François; Tojerow, Ilan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potentially non-linear relation between households' indebtedness and their consumption between 2010 and 2014 in Belgium, using panel data from the two waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Unlike previous studies, we find a negative effect of households' indebtedness on their consumption, even in the absence of negative shock on their assets. Our findings suggest that, without such a shock, it is the day-to-day sustainability of the debt, rather than its overall sustainability, that leads households to reduce their consumption. We perform as well a threshold analysis, whose results suggest that households should not have a debt-service-to-income ratio greater than 30%. The effect appears to be robust to various specifications, to result from a trade-off between housing and consumption, and to be more prevalent among more fragile households. |
| Keywords: | Households,Indebtedness,Consumption,Debt-Service-to-Income,Non-linear Heterogeneous Effects |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:799&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin Lochner (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg and Institute for Employment Research (IAB)); Bastian Schulz (Department of Economics and Business Economics, the Dale T. Mortensen Centre, Aarhus University and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | We study the link between firms’ productivity and the wages firms pay. Guided by labor market sorting theory, we infer firm productivity from estimating firm-level production functions, taking into account that worker ability and firm productivity may interact at the match level. Using German data, we find that high wages are not necessarily a reflection of high firm productivity. Observed worker transitions towards higher wages are sometimes directed downwards on the firm-productivity ladder. Worker sorting into high-productivity firms is thus less pronounced than sorting into high-wage firms. Consequently, an implication of increasing wage sorting could be decreasing allocative efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Assortative Matching, Labor Market Sorting, Wage Inequality, Job Mobility, Unobserved Heterogeneity, Firm Productivity, Production Function Estimation |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J40 J62 J64 L25 |
| Date: | 2021–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2021-04&r=all |