nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒03‒22
fifty-nine papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States By Franziska Bremus; Thomas Krause; Felix Noth
  2. On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market By Winfried Koeniger; Benedikt Lennartz; Marc-Antoine Ramelet
  3. Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal for the 1991-2011 period By Patrícia C. Melo; Conceição Rego; Paulo Rui Anciães; Nuno Guiomar; José Muñoz-Rojas
  4. The Network of US Airports and its Effects on Employment By Nicholas Sheard
  5. Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students By Figlio, David N.; Giuliano, Paola; Marchingiglio, Riccardo; Ozek, Umut; Sapienza, Paola
  6. Government institutions and the dynamics of urban growth in China By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Zhang, Min
  7. Regional income disparities, monopoly and finance By Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona
  8. The Economic Complexity of US Metropolitan Areas By Fritz, Benedikt; Manduca, Robert
  9. Urban Sprawl and Air Quality in European Cities: an Empirical Assessment By Federica Cappelli; Gianni Guastella; Stefano Pareglio
  10. When Distance Drives Destination, Towns Can Stimulate Development By De Weerdt, Joachim; Christiaensen, Luc; Kanbur, Ravi
  11. The Demand for Mobility: Evidence from an Experiment with Uber Riders By Christensen, Peter; Osman, Adam
  12. Caste in Class: Evidence from Peers and Teachers By Javier García-Brazales
  13. Whose Job Is It Anyway? Co-Ethnic Hiring in New U.S. Ventures By Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr
  14. The geography of innovation and technology news - An empirical study of the German news media By Burcu Ozgun; Tom Broekel;
  15. How Do Low-Skilled Immigrants Adjust to Chinese Import Shocks? Evidence Using English Language Proficiency By Furtado, Delia; Kong, Haiyang
  16. Does Re-Opening Schools Contribute to the Spread of Sars-Cov-2? Evidence From Staggered Summer Breaks in Germany By Ingo E. Isphording; Marc Lipfert; Nico Pestel
  17. Police Militarization and Local Elections By Christos Mavridis; Orestis Troumpounis; Maurizio Zanardi
  18. Home Ownership and Home Equity Promote Entrepreneurial Activity By Hassink, Wolter; Millone, Matteo; Mocking, Remco; Vogt, Benedikt
  19. Teacher Characteristics and Student Performance: Evidence from Random Teacher-Student Assignments in China By Huang, Wei; Li, Teng; Pan, Yinghao; Ren, Jinyang
  20. Immigrants and the making of America By Sequeira, Sandra; Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy
  21. Age of Starting School, Academic Performance, and the Impact of Non-Compliance: An Experiment within an Experiment, Evidence from Australia By Beatton, Tony; Kidd, Michael; Niu, Anthony; Vella, Francis
  22. The Causal Effect of Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from a New Historical Database By Lindgren, Erik; Pettersson-Lidbom, Per; Tyrefors, Björn
  23. Crime, Inequality and Subsidized Housing: Evidence from South Africa By Roxana Manea; Patrizio Piraino; Martina Viarengo
  24. Welfare Effects of Property Taxation By Loeffler, Max; Siegloch, Sebastian
  25. The Effects of Free Secondary School Track Choice: A Disaggregated Synthetic Control Approach By Kristina Strohmaier; Aderonke Osikominu; Gregor Pfeifer
  26. Trade and Geography By Stephen J Redding
  27. The Association of Opening K-12 Schools and Colleges with the Spread of Covid-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis By Victor Chernozhukov; Hiroyuki Kasahara; Paul Schrimpf
  28. Decentralising the United Kingdom: the Northern Powerhouse strategy and urban ownership links between firms since 2010 By Natalia Zdanowska; Robin Morphet
  29. Asian Discrimination in the Coronavirus Era: Implications for Business Formation and Survival By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Borra, Cristina; Wang, Chunbei
  30. Accessibility and patronage of urban open spaces in a south-western Nigeria city By Ajayi, Ayodeji Olusola; Amole, Oludolapo Olutosin
  31. Shifting Streets COVID-19 Mobility Data: Findings from a global dataset and a research agenda for transport planning and policy By Combs, Tabitha; Pardo, Carlos F.
  32. A regional approach to the study of industrial diversity in Argentina (1996-2012) By Belmartino, Andrea; Calá, Carla Daniela
  33. Youth Unemployment Rates in Metro Areas, 2019 to 2020 By Hande Inanc; Megan McIntyre
  34. Water Infrastructure and Health in U.S. Cities By Brian Beach
  35. Changes in Metropolitan Area Definition, 1910-2010 By Todd Gardner
  36. On the Effects of COVID-19 Safer-At-Home Policies on Social Distancing, Car Crashes and Pollution By Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Wright, Taylor
  37. Extending A Regional Innovation Network: A Technology Intelligence Approach By Johannes van der Pol; Jean-Paul Rameshkoumar; Sarah Teulière; Thierry Bazerque
  38. Primary schooling, human capital, and COVID-19: A multidimensional evaluation: Upcoming evidence from Mozambique By Chimbutane, Feliciano; Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Lauchande, Carlos; Leight, Jessica
  39. When the Mob Goes Silent: Uncovering the Effects of Racial Harassment through a Natural Experiment By Mauro Caselli; Paolo Falco
  40. The Local Political Economy of Austerity: Lessons from Hospital Closures in Romania By Savu, A.
  41. Backcasting, Nowcasting, and Forecasting Residential Repeat-Sales Returns: Big Data meets Mixed Frequency By Matteo Garzoli; Alberto Plazzi; Rossen I. Valkanov
  42. The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigration By Sekou Keita; Thomas Renault; Jérôme Valette
  43. Are voters rational? By Lyytikainen, Teemu; Tukiainen, Janne
  44. Comparing spatial data sources for cycling studies – a review By Willberg, Elias S; Tenkanen, Henrikki; Poom, Age; Salonen, Maria; Toivonen, Tuuli
  45. Tourism Resilience and the EU Regional Economy By Radu Radulescu; Alexandru Meleca
  46. Understanding the Economic, Social, and Political Trends of International Migration By Zakiyyah, Varachia
  47. Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-War Czechoslovakia By Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štepán; Roesel, Felix
  48. Knowledge dynamics in employee entrepreneurship : Implications for parents and offspring By Chila, Vilma
  49. Critical Review and Analysis of Economic, Social and Political Trends of International Migration By Bruce, Curtis
  50. Segregation and preferences for redistribution By Dilara Tosu; Montserrat Vilalta-Bufí
  51. Unequal Jury Representation and Its Consequences By Anwar, Shamena; Bayer, Patrick; Hjalmarsson, Randi
  52. The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission? By Dominika Ehrenbergerova; Josef Bajzik
  53. Persecution and Escape: Professional Networks and High-Skilled Emigration from Nazi Germany By Sascha O. Becker; Volker Lindenthal; Sharun Mukand; Fabian Waldinger
  54. Identity and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants By Maria Rosaria Carillo; Vincenzo Lombardo; Tiziana Venittelli
  55. Migration and Redistribution: Federal Governance of an Economic Union Matters By Assaf Razin; Efraim Sadka
  56. A Bigger House at the Cost of an Empty Fridge? The Effect of Households' Indebtedness on Their Consumption: Micro-Evidence Using Belgian HFCS Data By Du Caju, Philip; Périlleux, Guillaume; Rycx, Francois; Tojerow, Ilan
  57. On Immigration and Native Entrepreneurship By Duleep, Harriet; Jaeger, David A.; McHenry, Peter
  58. Estimating Commercial Property Price Misalignment in the CEE Countries By Hana Hejlova; Michal Hlavacek; Blanka Vackova
  59. The impact of measurement error in models using police recorded crime rates By Pina-Sánchez, Jose; Buil-Gil, David; brunton-smith, ian; Cernat, Alexandru

  1. By: Franziska Bremus; Thomas Krause; Felix Noth
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger are mortgage, house price, and employment growth. While shocks at the level of shadow banks significantly affect mortgage and house price dynamics, too, they do not matter much for employment.
    Keywords: Credit supply shocks, mortgage market concentration, real effects from housing markets
    JEL: E44 G21 R20
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Winfried Koeniger; Benedikt Lennartz; Marc-Antoine Ramelet
    Abstract: We provide empirical evidence on the heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy to the housing market across and within countries. We use household-level data from Germany, Italy and Switzerland together with the respective monetary policy shocks identified from high-frequency data. We find that the pass-through of monetary policy shocks to rates of newly originated (fixed-rate) mortgages is twice as strong in Switzerland than in Germany and Italy. After an accommodative monetary policy shock, this is associated in the housing market with a larger immediate, and persistent increase of transitions from renting to owning; a stronger decrease in rents; and an increase of the price-rent ratio. Within Italy, we find a stronger pass-through to mortgage rates, housing tenure transitions and the price-rent ratio in the northern regions that have been characterized in the literature as more financially developed than the southern regions.
    Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, housing market, home ownership, rents, house prices
    JEL: E21 E52 R21
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Patrícia C. Melo; Conceição Rego; Paulo Rui Anciães; Nuno Guiomar; José Muñoz-Rojas
    Abstract: Transport investment is frequently advocated as having the double virtue of achieving both economic growth and territorial cohesion. The idea is that improving the accessibility of lagging regions to cities, increases the attractiveness of those regions for people and businesses. However, transport is only one of the factors affecting local development and there is no consensus on its net effect on population growth. The large scale of public funding allocated to motorway investment since the country joined the European Union in 1986 makes Portugal an ideal case study to examine the potential effect of improved road accessibility on the development of lagging rural areas. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between rural population change and road accessibility to the urban hierarchy (i.e. cities of different sizes) between 1991 and 2011. Regression analyses show that rural population growth is negatively associated with road distance and road travel time to the urban hierarchy, notably to medium-sized cities (i.e. 20,000-99,999 inhabitants). This suggests that medium-size cities play an important role in supporting population growth in their rural hinterlands. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of these findings. There is no evidence of nonlinearities in the magnitude of the effect between accessible and remote rural areas, which may be partially related to the relatively small size of the country.
    Keywords: rural areas, population change, road accessibility, rural-urban linkages, spillover effects
    JEL: R11 R12 J21
    Date: 2021–03
  4. By: Nicholas Sheard
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of airport infrastructure on employment and the distribution of the labor force in US metropolitan areas. The analysis is based on models for the air network and for its effects on employment, which are estimated using US data. Air traffic is found to have a positive effect on the population of the local area, with an elasticity of 0.010, so airport improvements induce a reallocation of workers between regions. Air traffic is also found to have a positive effect on employment in the local area with an elasticity of 0.036 and a weakly positive effect on the employment rate in other places within 400 miles. Simulations suggest that for each job created in the local area by an airport expansion, two and a half jobs are created elsewhere in the US due to the changes in the air network and the distribution of employment. Expanding the average airport adds one job in the US for roughly each $78,000 invested. The results further suggest that the US air network is less centralized than would be optimal.
    Keywords: Airport, Network, Transportation infrastructure, Urban growth
    JEL: H54 L93 R11 R42
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Figlio, David N. (Northwestern University); Giuliano, Paola (University of California, Los Angeles); Marchingiglio, Riccardo (Northwestern University); Ozek, Umut (American Institutes for Research); Sapienza, Paola (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: We study the effect of exposure to immigrants on the educational outcomes of US-born students, using a unique dataset combining population-level birth and school records from Florida. This research question is complicated by substantial school selection of US-born students, especially among White and comparatively affluent students, in response to the presence of immigrant students in the school. We propose a new identification strategy to partial out the unobserved non-random selection into schools, and find that the presence of immigrant students has a positive effect on the academic achievement of US-born students, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Moreover, the presence of immigrants does not affect negatively the performance of affluent US-born students, who typically show a higher academic achievement compared to immigrant students. We provide suggestive evidence on potential channels.
    Keywords: immigrant students, educational attainment
    JEL: I21 I24 J15
    Date: 2021–03
  6. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Zhang, Min
    Abstract: Economic growth in China in recent decades has largely rested on the dynamism of its cities. High economic growth has coincided with measures aimed at improving the efficiency of local governments and with a mounting political drive to curb corruption. Yet the connection between government institutions and urban growth in China remains poorly understood. This paper is the first to look into the link between government efficiency and corruption, on the one hand, and urban growth in China, on the other hand and to assess what is the role of institutions relative to more traditional factors for economic growth in Chinese cities. Using panel data for 283 cities over the period between 2003 and 2014, the results show that the urban growth in China is a consequence of a combination of favorable human capital, innovation, density, local conditions, foreign direct investment, and city-level government institutions. Both government quality—especially for those cities with the best governments—and the fight against corruption at the city level have a direct effect on urban growth. Measures to tackle corruption at the provincial level matter in a more indirect way, by raising or lowering the returns of other growth-inducing factors.
    Keywords: economic growth; cities; government efficiency; corruption; China
    JEL: O4 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–09
  7. By: Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: The overall rise in inequality in the USA since 1980 has been matched by a rise in inequality between places; local and regional development policies aimed at reversing this polarisation have seen limited success. We propose an explanation for the spatial polarisation of prosperity and the failure of the policies to remedy it. Our explanation is based on the interaction of monopoly power, agglomeration economies in technology clusters and the power of financial sector actors over non-financial firms—all phenomena characteristic of the post-1980 economy. We review evidence for each of these elements and propose some causal relationships between them, as an outline of an ongoing research programme.
    Keywords: Regional income distribution; Monopoly; Technology clusters; Platforms; Financialization; Spatial inequality; LSE OA Fund
    JEL: O33 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–12–31
  8. By: Fritz, Benedikt; Manduca, Robert
    Abstract: Regional Studies, Forthcoming. This is the last draft version (the version submitted to the journal before acceptance) | We calculate measures of economic complexity for US metropolitan areas for the years 1998-2015 based on employment data. We show that the concept translates well to the regional setting and to local and traded industries. Large cities and the Northeast have the highest complexity, while most traded industries are more complex than most local ones. In cross-section, metropolitan complexity is associated with higher incomes, though to a lesser extent recently than in the past. However, within-city increases in complexity are associated with income decreases. Our findings highlight the need for caution when interpreting the relationship between complexity and socioeconomic outcomes.
    Date: 2021–01–26
  9. By: Federica Cappelli (Roma Tre University); Gianni Guastella (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Stefano Pareglio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: In this paper we estimate the relationship between urban sprawl and a measure of air quality, namely the number of days in which the PM10 concentration exceeds safeguard limits in European Union cities. Building on a multidimensional representation of sprawl, the paper employs several indicators to account for built-up area development, population density, and residential discontinuity. The paper employs generalised additive models to disentangle the non-linear effects in the variables and the interaction effects of the three sprawl dimensions. A significant and robust effect of urban morphology emerges after controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and climatic factors and the geographical location of the city. We find that urban sprawl impacts positively on pollutant concentration, but the effect is highly context-specific because of threshold effects and interactions.
    Keywords: Air Pollution, Urban Sprawl, European Cities, Additive Models
    JEL: Q53 R14 C21
    Date: 2021–03
  10. By: De Weerdt, Joachim (University of Antwerp); Christiaensen, Luc (World Bank); Kanbur, Ravi (Cornell University)
    Abstract: While city migrants see their welfare increase much more than those moving to towns, many more rural-urban migrants end up in towns. This phenomenon, documented in detail in Kagera, Tanzania, begs the question why migrants move to seemingly suboptimal destinations. Using an 18-year panel of individuals from this region and information on the possible destinations from the census, this study documents, through dyadic regressions and controlling for individual heterogeneity, how the deterrence of further distance to cities (compared to towns) largely trumps the attraction from their promise of greater wealth, making towns more appealing destinations. Education mitigates these effects (lesser deterrence from distance; greater attraction from wealth), while poverty reduces the attraction of wealth, consistent with the notion of urban sorting. With about two thirds of the rural population in low-income countries living within two hours from a town, these findings underscore the importance of vibrant towns for inclusive development.
    Keywords: Africa, internal migration, urbanization, secondary towns
    JEL: J61 O15 O55
    Date: 2021–03
  11. By: Christensen, Peter (University of Illinois); Osman, Adam (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
    Abstract: Changes in transport costs can affect mobility in ways that differ across the population, affecting the impacts of transport policies. We randomly assign large price reductions on Uber in Egypt over a 3-month period and collect comprehensive data on participant mobility using Google Timeline. A 50% price reduction quadruples Uber usage and induces a 42% increase in total travel. Effects and welfare gains are larger for women, who are less mobile at baseline and perceive public transit as unsafe. The price elasticity of private vehicle kilometers traveled (-1.28) implies that mobility and external costs increase substantially when ride-hailing prices fall.
    Keywords: travel demand, travel safety, ride-hailing, mobility on demand
    JEL: J16 J28 J61 Q55 R48
    Date: 2021–03
  12. By: Javier García-Brazales (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)
    Abstract: Differences in academic achievement across Indian castes are both large and persistent. I make use of rich individual data to explore how class caste composition affects academic progress as well as the mechanisms in place. Benefiting from exogenous assignment of students to classes and teachers, I find that a one-percentage point increase in the proportion of low-caste class- mates leads to a fall of around 2% of a standard deviation in the mathematics score and to much smaller effects in English. This phenomenon is mediated through lower effort exerted by the students, which itself emanates from the students' worsened perception about the extent to which their teachers value them. This non-cognitive channel, which has not been previously identified in the peer effects literature, suggests that the use of a fairly malleable input such as more open and receptive teachers among low-caste students would be an appropriate policy response.
    Keywords: Castes, peer effects, non-cognitive skills, India.
    JEL: I24 J15 J24
    Date: 2020–09
  13. By: Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr
    Abstract: We explore co-ethnic hiring among new ventures using U.S. administrative data. Co-ethnic hiring is ubiquitous among immigrant groups, averaging about 22.5% and ranging from 2% to 40%. Co-ethnic hiring grows with the size of the local ethnic workforce, greater linguistic distance to English, lower cultural/genetic similarity to U.S. natives, and in harsher policy environments for immigrants. Co ethnic hiring is remarkably persistent for ventures and for individuals. Co-ethnic hiring is associated with greater venture survival and growth when thick local ethnic employment surrounds the business. Our results are consistent with a blend of hiring due to information advantages within ethnic groups with some taste-based hiring.
    Keywords: Hiring, immigration, entrepreneurship, job creation, E-Verify
    JEL: F22 J15 J44 J61 J62 J71 L26 M13 M51
    Date: 2021–03
  14. By: Burcu Ozgun; Tom Broekel;
    Abstract: Variations in the frequency and tone of news media are the focus of a growing literature. However, to date, empirical investigations have primarily confirmed the existence of such differences at the country level. This paper extends those insights to the subnational level. We provide theoretical arguments and empirical support for systematic regional variations in the frequency and sentiments of news related to innovation and new technologies. These variations reflect regional socio-economic structures. We find that the average newspaper circulating in urban areas features more news on innovation and new technologies than media in more rural areas. Similar endings hold for locations in East Germany and to a certain degree for regions with low unemployment. The sentiments of innovation and new technology news are negatively associated to the unemployment rate, and they tend to be lower in regional newspapers than in national ones. Overall, our results suggest a strong link between the regional socioeconomic conditions and how newspapers circulating in these places report on innovation and new technologies.
    Keywords: innovation, technology, news media, sentiment analysis, topic modeling
    JEL: O33 R12 L82
    Date: 2021–03
  15. By: Furtado, Delia (University of Connecticut); Kong, Haiyang (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the link between trade-induced changes in local labor market opportunities and English language fluency rates among low-skilled immigrants in the United States. Many of the production-based manufacturing jobs lost in recent years due to Chinese import competition did not require strong English-speaking skills while many of the jobs in expanding industries, mostly in the service sector, did. Consistent with responses to these changing labor market opportunities, we find that a $1,000 increase in import exposure per worker in a local area led to an increase in the share of low-skilled immigrants speaking English very well in that area by about half a percentage point. As evidence that at least part of this is a result of actual improvements in English language speaking abilities, we show that low-skilled immigrants in trade-impacted areas became especially likely to be enrolled in school compared to similarly low-skilled natives. However, while we find little support for selective domestic migration in response to trade shocks, we present evidence suggesting that new immigrants arriving from abroad choose where to settle based either on their English fluency or their ability to learn English. Regardless of whether low-skilled immigrants respond to trade shocks via actual improvements in English fluency or migration choices, our results suggest that immigrants help to equilibrate labor markets, an implication we find evidence for in the data.
    Keywords: immigrants, language fluency, import competition, immigrant assimilation
    JEL: J15 J61 J24 F16
    Date: 2021–02
  16. By: Ingo E. Isphording; Marc Lipfert; Nico Pestel
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the end of school summer breaks on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany. The staggered timing of summer breaks across federal states allows us to implement an event study design. We base our analysis on official daily counts of confirmed coronavirus infections by age groups across all 401 German counties. We consider an event window of two weeks before and four weeks after the end of summer breaks. We do not find evidence of a positive effect of school re-openings on case numbers. For individuals aged between 5-59 years, which comprise school-aged children and their parents, our preferred specification indicates that the end of summer breaks had a negative but insignificant effect on the number of new confirmed cases. Our results are not explained by changes in mobility patterns around school re-openings arising from travel returnees. Analyses of Google Trends data suggest that behavioral changes of parents may have contributed to contain larger outbreaks after school re-openings. We conclude that school re-openings in Germany under strict hygiene measures combined with quarantine and containment measures have not increased the number of newly confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.
    Keywords: COVID-19, schooling, education, Germany
    JEL: I10 I18 I28
    Date: 2021–01
  17. By: Christos Mavridis (Middlesex University London); Orestis Troumpounis (University of Padova and Lancaster University); Maurizio Zanardi (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: US local law enforcement agencies have been receiving substantial military equipment through the “1033 Program" during the last decades. Sheriffs, one of the agencies requesting such transfers, are directly accountable to voters for their actions, so one may wonder: how do military equipment transfers in a given county affect the re-election prospects of the county's sheriff? We construct a unique dataset on local electoral races covering 6,218 sheriff elections in 2,381 counties between 2006 and 2016 and reveal the causal effect of military transfers on sheriffs' re-election probabilities: an increase in military transfers in a given county (from none to the median value) results in an increase in the probability the county's sheriff is re-elected (by 3:6 to 9:9 percentage points). This result explains sheriffs' strong support for the “1033 Program" and suggests that the image of a “tough" sheriff in town seems to be rewarded, overall providing fresh evidence on voters' responsiveness in local office elections.
    JEL: D72 H56 H76 K42
    Date: 2021–03
  18. By: Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University); Millone, Matteo (De Nederlandsche Bank); Mocking, Remco (Dutch Ministry of Finance); Vogt, Benedikt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of private real estate collateral on entrepreneurial lending and entrepreneurial activity in the Netherlands. The residential collateral channel is especially relevant for sole-proprietors who own a business with unlimited liability. We used administrative data on outstanding bank credit based on all Dutch sole-proprietorships in the 2007-2013 period. Our results indicate that, during a severe economic crisis, home-owning entrepreneurs are affected less severely than renting entrepreneurs. Home ownership improved access to credit at the extensive and intensive margin, and it reduced the probability of exit. Positive home equity is the driving force behind this effect, as entrepreneurs with negative home equity are not treated significantly differently from renters.
    Keywords: collateral lending channel, house price shocks, negative home equity, entrepreneurial lending
    JEL: G23 L26 R2 R31
    Date: 2021–03
  19. By: Huang, Wei (National University of Singapore); Li, Teng (National University of Singapore); Pan, Yinghao (National University of Singapore); Ren, Jinyang (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of teacher characteristics on student performance using a nationally representative and randomly assigned teacher-student sample in China. We find that having a more experienced or female homeroom teacher (HRT) with additional classroom management duties significantly improves students' test scores and cognitive and noncognitive abilities. In contrast, these effects are not observed for subject teachers who are responsible only for teaching. More experienced or female HRTs are also associated with a better classroom environment, more self-motivated students, more parental involvement, and higher parental expectations. These mechanisms explain 10-25 percent of HRT effects on test scores and cognitive ability and 50-60 percent of HRT effects on noncognitive ability. Our findings highlight the importance of teacher management skills in education production.
    Keywords: teacher value-added, education production function, student performance
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2021–03
  20. By: Sequeira, Sandra; Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy
    Abstract: We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
    Keywords: Economic development; Historical persistence; Immigration
    JEL: B52 F22 O10 O40
    Date: 2020–01
  21. By: Beatton, Tony (University of Queensland); Kidd, Michael (Queensland University of Technology); Niu, Anthony (RMIT University); Vella, Francis (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the difference in academic performance of the oldest and youngest students in a given grade. We employ Queensland Department of Education school administration panel data for the population of state school students for the years 2008-2016. Academic performance is measured by National standard test scores (NAPLAN) and teacher assessed measures of performance and effort for individuals in grades 3, 5 and 7. The empirical analysis employs a regression discontinuity design (RDD) based on administrative rules on age of school enrolment. The class assigning mechanism operates via a known cut-off date and results in the oldest child in the grade being almost a year older than the youngest. However, as parents may anticipate a disadvantage in their child being the youngest in grade they may choose to delay the timing of initial enrolment. This lack of compliance potentially creates difficulties for the RDD identification strategy, in particular the assumption of exchangeability around the cut-off. We exploit a change in the cut-off rule from a 2008 reform which postponed the school starting age by 6 months and produced a large increase in the compliance rate. This enables one to gauge the importance of non-compliance in estimating the treatment effect of being older versus younger in cohort. We find that the pre-reform treatment effect is small and generally statistically insignificant. Post-reform there is a sizeable and statistically significant treatment effect which diminishes as the sample proceeds through school grades, 3, 5 and 7.
    Keywords: national standard achievement tests, compliance rates, fuzzy regression discontinuity
    JEL: I29
    Date: 2021–03
  22. By: Lindgren, Erik (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Pettersson-Lidbom, Per (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) and Department of Economics, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways on three measures of local economic activity: real nonagricultural income, agricultural land values and population size. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 regions, i.e., local governments, during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event study design that is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, we find extremely large reduced-form effects of having access to railways. For real nonagricultural income, the cumulative treatment effect is approximately 120% after 30 years. Therefore, this effect is 20 times larger than most reduced-form effects found in previous works on the effect of transport infrastructure on economic activity. Equally important, we also show that our reduced-form effect reflects growth rather than a reorganization of existing economic activity.
    Keywords: railways; transport infrastructure; real income; land value; event study; treatment heterogeneity
    JEL: H54 L92 N73 O22 R12 R42
    Date: 2021–03–08
  23. By: Roxana Manea; Patrizio Piraino; Martina Viarengo
    Abstract: We study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in South Africa. We create a novel panel dataset combining information on crimes at the police station level with census data. We find that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. An increase of one standard deviation in housing inequality explains between 9 and 13 percent of crime increases. Additionally, we show that a prominent post-apartheid housing program for low-income South Africans led to a reduction in inequality and a decline in violent crimes. Together, these findings suggest the important role that equality in housing conditions can play in the reduction of crime in an emerging economy context.
    Keywords: inequality, crime, economic development
    JEL: D63 O10 K14
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Loeffler, Max (Maastricht University); Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim)
    Abstract: We analyze the welfare implications of property taxation. Using a sufficient statistics approach, we show that the tax incidence depends on how housing prices, labor and other types of incomes as well as public services respond to property tax changes. Empirically, we exploit the German institutional setting with 5,200 municipal tax reforms for identification. We find that higher taxes are fully passed on to rental prices after three years. The pass-through is lower when housing supply is inelastic. Combining reduced form estimates with our theoretical framework, we simulate the welfare effects of property taxes and show that they are regressive.
    Keywords: property taxation, welfare, tax incidence, local labor markets, rental housing
    JEL: H22 H41 H71 R13 R31 R38
    Date: 2021–03
  25. By: Kristina Strohmaier; Aderonke Osikominu; Gregor Pfeifer
    Abstract: We exploit a recent state-level reform in Germany that granted parents the right to decide on the highest secondary school track suitable for their child, changing the purpose of the primary teacher's recommendation from mandatory to informational. Applying a disaggregated synthetic control approach to administrative district-level data, we find that transition rates to the higher school tracks increased substantially, with stronger responses among children from richer districts. Simultaneously, grade repetition in the first grades of secondary school increased dramatically, suggesting that parents choose school tracks also to align with their own aspirations – resulting in greater misallocation of students.
    Keywords: school tracking, student performance, synthetic control method, treatment effect distributions, treatment effect heterogeneity
    JEL: C21 C46 I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Stephen J Redding (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent research on geography and trade. One of the key empirical findings over the last decade has been the role of geography in shaping the distributional consequences of trade. One of the major theoretical advances has been the development of quantitative spatial models that incorporate both exogenous first-nature geography (natural endowments) and endogenous second-nature geography (the location choices of economic agents relative to one another) as determinants of the distribution of economic activity across space. These models are sufficiently rich to capture first-order features of the data, such as gravity equations for flows of goods and people. Yet they remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of the properties of the general equilibrium and facilitate counterfactuals for realistic policy interventions. We distinguish between models of regions or systems of cities (where goods trade and migration take center stage) and models of the internal structure of cities (where commuting becomes relevant). We review some of key empirical predictions of both sets of theories and show that they have been remarkably successful in rationalizing the empirical findings from reduced-form research. Looking ahead, the combination of recent theoretical advances and novel geo-coded data on economic interactions at a fine spatial scale promises many interesting avenues for further research, including discriminating between alternative mechanisms for agglomeration, understanding the implications of new technologies for the organization of work, and assessing the causes, consequences and potential policy implications of spatial sorting.
    JEL: F10 F12 R12
    Date: 2020–09
  27. By: Victor Chernozhukov; Hiroyuki Kasahara; Paul Schrimpf
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines how the opening of K-12 schools and colleges is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. Using data on foot traffic and K-12 school opening plans, we analyze how an increase in visits to schools and opening schools with different teaching methods (in-person, hybrid, and remote) is related to the 2-weeks forward growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our debiased panel data regression analysis with a set of county dummies, interactions of state and week dummies, and other controls shows that an increase in visits to both K-12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K-12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the positive association of K-12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These results have a causal interpretation in a structural model with unobserved county and time confounders. Sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to timing assumptions and alternative specifications.
    Keywords: K-12 school openings, in-person, hybrid, and remote, mask-wearing requirements for staff, foot traffic data, debiased estimator
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Natalia Zdanowska; Robin Morphet
    Abstract: This paper explores a decentralisation initiative in the United Kingdom - the Northern Powerhouse strategy (NPS) - in terms of its main goal: strengthening connectivity between Northern cities of England. It focuses on economic interactions of these cities, defined by ownership linkages between firms, since the NPS's launch in 2010. The analysis reveals a relatively weak increase in the intensity of economic regional patterns in the North, in spite of a shift away from NPS cities' traditional manufacturing base. These results suggest potential directions for policy-makers in terms of the future implementation of the NPS.
    Date: 2021–03
  29. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Borra, Cristina (University of Seville); Wang, Chunbei (University of Oklahoma)
    Abstract: With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Asians became the victims of a sudden increase in racial discrimination as public officials repeatedly referred to the virus as the "Chinese virus." We document that Asian entrepreneurship has been disproportionally hurt after January 2020, particularly among Asian immigrants, declining by 17 percent when compared to non-Hispanic whites. Examining the dynamics of transitions into and out of self-employment, we find a substantial increase in Asian immigrants' self-employment exits, increased necessity entries, and reductions in opportunity entries – patterns suggestive of customer and employer 'taste discrimination'. The pandemic has also proven particularly harmful on businesses owned by recently arrived immigrants and by East Asian immigrants. While Asian enclaves help palliate the pandemic's damaging impact, the latter has reached a broad spectrum of businesses. Gaining a better understanding of how the pandemic has impacted Asian businesses is crucial to inform about the emergence of discriminatory behaviors that widen inequities and endanger a fast recovery.
    Keywords: asian, discrimination, COVID-19, business ownership, business dynamics
    JEL: J15 J61 J71 J78
    Date: 2021–03
  30. By: Ajayi, Ayodeji Olusola; Amole, Oludolapo Olutosin
    Abstract: This paper examines the patronage and utilization of urban open spaces in Osogbo, Nigeria. Data were obtained through a multi-stage sampling technique. The study area was divided into high, medium and low density areas and 553 (5%) of buildings were systematic selected from 11,022 buildings identified through preliminary survey and satellite images. One teenager and two adults (a male and female) were selected in each building resulting in the total sample size of 1,659. Information on respondent's socio-economic characteristics, frequency of utilization open spaces, travel time, means of transportation and time spent in open spaces were obtained from the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. The results show that most of the respondents (60.8%) were occasional users of open spaces, 2.2% of respondents never used the open spaces while 37% were frequent users. In addition, the most frequently used open space was the neighborhood park (42.1%), followed by school playgrounds (39.2%) and pocket parks (32.7%). Incidental open spaces had the lowest proportion of patronage(20.9%). The longest duration of use occurred in school playgrounds while the neighbourhood park was the most accessible to the respondents. The frequency of use varies across typologies and residential densities. The mean travel time of respondents across all open spaces was 13.62 seconds, the variations in travel time across typologies were not statically significant (F=3.802, p =.010). Recommendations to make open spaces more accessible were suggested.
    Keywords: Open space typologies,Accessibility,Urban neighbourhoods,Open space utilization,Proximity
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Combs, Tabitha; Pardo, Carlos F.
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic brought a dramatic shift in demand for spaces for safe, physically distanced walking, bicycling, and outdoor commerce. Cities around the world responded by instituting a variety of policies and programs meant to address this shift, such as carving out roadway space for non-car uses, putting pedestrian walk signals on recall, reducing speed limits, and subsidizing bike share schemes. The extraordinarily rapid pace and global scale of these responses—and the public’s reactions to them—suggest that the transport planning, policy, and engineering professions may be at an inflection point with respect to equitable accommodation of non-car transport modes. In this paper we describe an effort to support potential shifts in practice by documenting and cataloging over a thousand COVID-19-related mobility responses into a publicly available database. We provide detailed guidance on using the database, along with preliminary summaries of key variables in the database. We also put forth a research agenda intended to build understanding about the processes that led to these actions, their implications for future efforts to design and implement pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, and ways in which the transport professions might evolve in response to lessons learned during and after the pandemic.
    Date: 2021–02–05
  32. By: Belmartino, Andrea; Calá, Carla Daniela
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to quantify the productive diversity of the manufacturing industry in the provinces of Argentina, to analyse trends in productive diversity between 1996 and 2012, and to identify the main related economic factors. A diversity index is calculated based on official data on total registered wage employment from the Dynamic Employment Analysis Database (BADE). An analysis is then performed of trends in diversity in the different provinces over the period. Lastly, an econometric panel data model is estimated to identify the main related economic factors. The industrial diversity of the provinces is negatively associated with withdrawal of firms and positively associated with level of development, region size, higher levels of urbanization and greater territorial capabilities. The results of this study can be used to design policies to promote regional diversity.
    Keywords: Industria; Empresas Industriales; Empresas Manufactureras; Productos Manufacturados; Modelos Econométricos; Análisis Provincial;
    Date: 2020–04
  33. By: Hande Inanc; Megan McIntyre
    Abstract: From 2019 to 2020, unemployment among youth increased across all large metro areas. Those with the largest percentage change in youth unemployment, compared to the previous year, were Orlando; Burlington (VT); Denver; Baltimore; Nashville; Sacramento; Cincinnati; San Antonio; San Francisco; and Boston.
    Keywords: Youth Unemployment, Metro Areas, COVID-19
  34. By: Brian Beach
    Abstract: Between 1900 and 1930 typhoid fever and other waterborne diseases were largely eradicated from U.S. cities. This achievement required a mix of technological, scientific, economic, and bureaucratic innovations. This article examines how the interaction of those forces influenced water and sanitary infrastructure provision during the 19th and early 20th centuries. I show the sharp link between infrastructure investments and declines in waterborne disease and discuss how that relationship informs the methodological approaches one should use to assess the impact of sanitary investments on urban development. Finally, I review the literature on the social returns to eliminating the threat of waterborne disease. The evidence suggests the benefits of infrastructure investment far exceeded the costs.
    JEL: I0 N0
    Date: 2021–03
  35. By: Todd Gardner
    Abstract: The Census Bureau was established as a permanent agency in 1902, as industrialization and urbanization were bringing about rapid changes in American society. The years following the establishment of a permanent Census Bureau saw the first attempts at devising statistical geography for tabulating statistics for large cities and their environs. These efforts faced several challenges owing to the variation in settlement patterns, political organization, and rates of growth across the United States. The 1910 census proved to be a watershed, as the Census Bureau offered a definition of urban places, established the first census tract boundaries for tabulating data within cities, and introduced the first standardized metropolitan area definition. It was not until the middle of the twentieth century, however, the Census Bureau in association with other statistical agencies had established a flexible standard metropolitan definition and a more consistent means of tabulating urban data. Since 1950, the rules for determining the cores and extent of metropolitan areas have been largely regarded as comparable. In the decades that followed, however, a number of rule changes were put into place that accounted for metropolitan complexity in differing ways, and these have been the cause of some confusion. Changes put into effect with the 2000 census represent a consensus of sorts for how to handle these issues.
    Keywords: statistical geography, metropolitan areas, urbanized areas, history
    Date: 2021–02
  36. By: Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Wright, Taylor
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of COVID-19 safer-at-home polices on collisions and pollution. We find that statewide safer-at-home policies lead to a 20% reduction in vehicular collisions and that the effect is entirely driven by less severe collisions. For pollution, we find particulate matter concentration levels approximately 1.5µg/m3 lower during the period of a safer-at-home order, representing a 25% reduction. We document a similar reduction in air pollution following the implementation of similar policies in Europe. We calculate that as of the end of June 2020, the benefits from avoided car collisions in the U.S. were approximately $16 billion while the benefits from reduced air pollution could be as high as $13 billion.
    Keywords: COVID-19,safer-at-home,lockdowns,air pollution,car crashes
    JEL: P48 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2021
  37. By: Johannes van der Pol; Jean-Paul Rameshkoumar; Sarah Teulière; Thierry Bazerque
    Abstract: In France, Regions do not make their own innovation policies, this is the role of the State. A Region implements national policies and uses grants and subsidies to create and dynamize innovation eco-systems important for its economic development. The Region’s role is therefore largely influential. In order to influence one needs to how and when to exert this influence. A precise understanding of an innovation eco-system is therefore of vital importance. On the occasion of the venue of a Nobel laureate to the French region of Nouvelle-Aquitaine the regional counsel aimed to connect her with the regional innovation eco-system around her research. The purpose of this paper is to show methods and techniques using patents, scientific publications and non-patent literature citations that can help with the identification of an innovation eco-system and how to integrate a researcher into this eco-system.
    Keywords: NPL ; Technology Intelligence ; Patents ; innovation networks
    JEL: R11 O34
    Date: 2021
  38. By: Chimbutane, Feliciano; Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Lauchande, Carlos; Leight, Jessica
    Abstract: This evaluation encompasses two related investigations. The first is a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impacts of school meals and literacy programs that will launch when Mozambican primary schools reopen from COVID-19 closures; the evaluation will measure the effects of the interventions on early-grade student outcomes, including nutrition, reading, and school attainment. The second analyzes the effects of school closures due to COVID-19 on schooling attainment, well-being, and mental health among young adolescents in the same schools, particularly adolescent girls.
    Keywords: MOZAMBIQUE; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; education; human capital; primary schools; schools; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; school feeding; nutrition; gender; adolescents; girls; households; impact assessment
    Date: 2020
  39. By: Mauro Caselli; Paolo Falco
    Abstract: How does harassment impact the performance of discriminated minorities? Using a natural experiment induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, we test how the sudden absence of supporters at football games impacts the performance of players from minority groups in Italy. We find that players from Africa, who are most commonly targeted by racial harassment, experience a significant improvement in performance when supporters are no longer at the stadium. Using data on o
    Date: 2021
  40. By: Savu, A.
    Abstract: I study whether austerity measures implemented by a central government incentivize electorally-motivated policy adjustments at the local level. To do so, I first quantify the effects of a controversial 2011 health-sector reform carried out in Romania, whereby a significant proportion of the country’s public hospitals was discontinued. Exploiting geographic constituency-level variation in austerity exposure created by this measure, I document a significant increase in local "voter-friendly" government spending targeted towards infrastructure investments in the policy’s catchment areas. Consistent with an electoral mechanism explaining this response, the evidence suggests that the effect is driven by the actions of local politicians affiliated with those responsible for the reform. To rule out alternative explanations, I take advantage of a second natural experiment wherein a party previously in opposition to those responsible for the closure of hospitals allied itself with the measure’s principal orchestrator. Following this re-alignment, I find heterogeneous increases in local voter-friendly spending which further corroborate the electoral mechanism. Overall, my results indicate that the electorally-driven responses of sub-national governments may partially mitigate the political costs of carrying out austerity.
    Keywords: Austerity, Political Costs, Central and Local Governments, Electoral Spending
    JEL: D72 D73 D78 H71 H72 H74 H76 H77
    Date: 2021–01–06
  41. By: Matteo Garzoli (University of Lugano); Alberto Plazzi (Swiss Finance Institute; Universita' della Svizzera italiana); Rossen I. Valkanov (University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management)
    Abstract: The Case-Shiller is the reference repeat-sales index for the U.S. residential real estate market, yet it is released with a two-month delay. We find that incorporating recent information from 71 financial and macro predictors improves backcasts, now-casts, and short-term forecasts of the index returns. Combining individual forecasts with recently-proposed weighting schemes delivers large improvements in forecast accuracy at all horizons. Additional gains obtain with mixed-data sampling methods that exploit the daily frequency of financial variables, reducing the mean square forecast error by as much as 13% compared to a simple autoregressive benchmark. The forecast improvements are largest during economic turmoils, throughout the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic period, and in more populous metropolitan areas.
    Keywords: Real estate, Case-Shiller, MIDAS, Forecasting, Big Data
    JEL: C22 C53 R30
    Date: 2021–03
  42. By: Sekou Keita (IAB); Thomas Renault (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Jérôme Valette (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Immigration and crime are two first-order issues that are often considered jointly in people's minds. This paper analyzes how media reporting policies on crime impact natives' attitudes towards immigration. We depart from most studies by investigating the content of crime-related articles instead of their coverage. Specifically, we use a radical change in local media reporting on crime in Germany as a naturel experiment. This unique framework allows us to estimate whether systematically disclosing the places of origin of criminals affects natives' attitudes towards immigration. We combine individual survey data collected between January 2014 and December 2018 from the Germain socio-Economic Panel with data from more than 545,000 crime-related articles in German newspapers and data on their diffusion across the country. Our results indicate that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals, especially when offenders are natives, significantly reduces natives' concerns about immigration
    Keywords: Immigration; Crime; Media Bias
    JEL: F22 K42 L82
    Date: 2021–03
  43. By: Lyytikainen, Teemu; Tukiainen, Janne
    Abstract: We test whether a voter’s decision to cast a vote depends on its probability of affecting the election outcome. Using exogenous variation arising at population cutoffs determining council sizes in Finnish municipal elections, we show that larger council size increases both pivotal probabilities and turnout. These effects are statistically significant, fairly large and robust. Finally, we use a novel instrumental variables design to show that the jumps in the pivotal probabilities are the likely candidate for explaining the increase in turnout, rather than the other observed simultaneous jumps at the council size cutoffs. Moreover, our results indicate that turnout responds only to within-party pivotal probabilities, perhaps because they are more salient to the voters than the between-party ones.
    Keywords: local government elections; instrumental variables; rational voting; regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2019–09–01
  44. By: Willberg, Elias S; Tenkanen, Henrikki; Poom, Age; Salonen, Maria; Toivonen, Tuuli
    Abstract: Cycling is integral for developing human-scale cities. To attract more people on bikes, urban planning and research share a need to better understand the spatial, temporal and social aspects of cycling. Novel data sources provide new opportunities to respond to this need, but understanding their strengths and weaknesses is crucial to facilitate the use of the most fitting data. We reviewed common cycling data sources and carried out a survey among NECTAR researchers and their networks of experts to compare the suitability of different data for answering some of the most common questions on cycling. Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of data availability, representativeness and fitness-for-use. The lack of cycling data and access to it is still identified as a main limitation among several of the reviewed data sources, both novel and traditional. We call for increased emphasis on responsible data sharing and open science practices whenever possible.
    Date: 2021–01–27
  45. By: Radu Radulescu (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of IaÅŸi, Romania,); Alexandru Meleca (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of IaÅŸi, Romania)
    Abstract: Regions around the world have faced many unexpected events, such as terrorist attacks, political crises, economic crises and pandemics, and these have affected their functions and structures, leading to destabilization. Each region responded differently to these shocks and crises: some regions overcame successfully, while others did not, some regions reacted directly and quickly, and others more slowly. Following the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the tourism industry has shown in some regions that it is more resilient to the economy of those regions. Given the current context caused by the new coronavirus COVID-19, the tourism industry has felt the effects as hotels and restaurants have been closed, international flights canceled, and depending on each region or country, various measures have been taken to ban travel, isolation and social distancing, and these measures can make major differences in the recovery of tourism. This paper presents a method of measuring the economic resilience of the European Union's tourism industry, assuming that regions based on domestic tourism will recover much faster than the rest of the regions. The questions that determined me to choose this research topic starting from the approach that in conditions of crisis the tourism industry is affected but it recovers would be: The tourism industry recovers faster than the regional economy following an economic crisis? Are the cycles of the regional economy and the tourism industry correlated?
    Keywords: tourism, regional resilience, tourism resilience, crisis
    Date: 2020–08
  46. By: Zakiyyah, Varachia
    Abstract: This study synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐World War II global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐World War II migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, substitution effects can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
    Keywords: migration, trends, determinants, policy, visa, refugee
    JEL: J1 J15 J6 J61 J62
    Date: 2020
  47. By: Grossmann, Jakub (CERGE-EI); Jurajda, Štepán (CERGE-EI); Roesel, Felix (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
    Abstract: How do staying minorities that evade ethnic cleansing integrate into re-settled communities? After World War Two, three million ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland, but some were allowed to stay, many of them left-leaning anti-fascists. We study quasi-experimental local variation in the number of anti-fascist Germans staying in post-war Czechoslovakia and find a long-lasting footprint: Communist party support, party cell frequencies, far-left values, and social policies are stronger today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among stayers who faced new local ethnic majorities.
    Keywords: forced migration, displacement, ethnic cleansing, stayers, minorities, identity, integration, communist party, Czechoslovakia, Sudetenland
    JEL: J15 F22 D72 D74 N34
    Date: 2021–03
  48. By: Chila, Vilma (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2021
  49. By: Bruce, Curtis
    Abstract: This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐World War II global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐World War II migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, substitution effects can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
    Keywords: migration, trends, determinants, economic, social, policy, visa, refugee
    JEL: J1 J15 J6 J61 J62
    Date: 2020
  50. By: Dilara Tosu (Universitat de Girona); Montserrat Vilalta-Bufí (Universitat de Barcelona, BEAT, CREB)
    Abstract: We study the relationship between segregation and preferences for redistribution in Europe. We measure segregation as the incidence of assortative mating in terms of education and occupation. Assortative mating is measured at the regional level for 10 European countries using the IPUMS data. We combine these data with eight waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2016). We find that increased socioeconomic segregation in most forms of assortative mating leads affluent individuals to support less redistribution. Results suggest that affluent individuals are less socially attached when there are high levels of segregation.
    Keywords: Segregation, assortative mating, preferences for redistribution, European regions.
    JEL: D31 D63 Z13
    Date: 2021
  51. By: Anwar, Shamena (RAND Corporation); Bayer, Patrick (Duke University); Hjalmarsson, Randi (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: We analyze the extent and consequences of unequal representation on juries in Harris County, Texas. We first document that residents from predominantly white and high-income neighborhoods are substantially over-represented on juries. Using quasi-random variation in those called for jury duty each day, we next establish that Black defendants are more likely to be convicted and receive longer sentences from juries with more residents from these over-represented neighborhoods. We estimate that equal representation would reduce Black defendants’ median sentence length by 50 percent and the probability of receiving a life sentence by 67 percent. Straightforward remedies could mitigate this severe bias.
    Keywords: jury; crime; sentences; representation; inequality; race
    JEL: J15 K40
    Date: 2021–03
  52. By: Dominika Ehrenbergerova; Josef Bajzik
    Abstract: In the current long-lasting period of low interest rates and overheating housing markets, the discussion of the effect of monetary policy on house prices has arisen again. We examine the broad empirical literature on this topic. We collect 1,447 estimates of the effect of changes in short-term interest rates on house prices. These estimates come from 31 studies and are drawn from vector autoregression models. On average, an increase in the interest rate by one percentage point causes a median decrease in house prices of 0.7 percent for the one-year horizon and 0.9 percent for the two-year horizon. Moreover, we show that at the medium-term (monetary policy) horizon, the effect of monetary policy remains significant after correcting for the publication bias present in the literature. In addition, we collect more than 40 control variables. These capture, first, the context in which the estimates were obtained, and, second, the characteristics of the economies in question. Within both groups of variables we identify several significant aspects explaining differences in the estimates reported in the literature. The most prominent drivers of the heterogeneity are the use of sign restrictions, the inclusion of additional endogenous variables in VAR models, and the level of indebtedness.
    Keywords: House prices, meta-analysis, monetary policy, publication selection, transmission
    JEL: C83 E52 R21
    Date: 2020–12
  53. By: Sascha O. Becker; Volker Lindenthal; Sharun Mukand; Fabian Waldinger
    Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating the escape of persecuted academics from Nazi Germany. From 1933, the Nazi regime started to dismiss academics of Jewish origin from their positions. The timing of dismissals created individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of emigration from Nazi Germany, allowing us to estimate the causal effect of networks for emigration decisions. Academics with ties to more colleagues who had emigrated in 1933 or 1934 (early émigrés) were more likely to emigrate. The early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes” that helped other academics cross over to their destination. Furthermore, we provide some of the first empirical evidence of decay in social ties over time. The strength of ties also decays across space, even within cities. Finally, for high-skilled migrants, professional networks are more important than community networks.
    Keywords: professional networks, high-skilled emigration, Nazi Germany, Jewish academics, universities
    JEL: I20 I23 I28 J15 J24 N30 N34 N40 N44
    Date: 2021
  54. By: Maria Rosaria Carillo; Vincenzo Lombardo; Tiziana Venittelli
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between social identity and labor market outcomes of immigrants. Using survey data from Italy, we provide robust evidence that immigrants with stronger feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country have higher employment rates, while those who exclusively identify with the host country culture do not have a net occupational advantage. Analysis of the potential mechanisms suggests that, although simultaneous identification with host and home country groups can be costly, the positive effect of multiple social identities is especially triggered by the enlarged information transmission and in-group favoritism that identification with, and membership of, extended communities ensure.
    Keywords: Migration; Integration; Ethnic identity; Acculturation; Culture; Labor market.
    Date: 2021–03–17
  55. By: Assaf Razin; Efraim Sadka
    Abstract: Both the U.S. and the EU are an economic union: There is a single market for goods, capital, finance, and labor. That is, there is free mobility of goods and services, physical and financial capital, and labor among the member countries of the union. Nevertheless, there is much higher degree of economic policy coordination among the member states of the U.S than of the EU. We argue, by using a model of a union exhibiting migration-based fiscal externality, that the degree of coordination among the member states potentially contribute a great deal to our understanding of observed policy differences between the EU and the US as economic unions: the generosity of the welfare state and the skill composition of migration.
    JEL: F02 H0 H77
    Date: 2021–03
  56. By: Du Caju, Philip (National Bank of Belgium); Périlleux, Guillaume (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Rycx, Francois (Free University of Brussels); Tojerow, Ilan (Free University of Brussels)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potentially non-linear relation between households' indebtedness and their consumption between 2010 and 2014 in Belgium, using panel data from the two waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Unlike previous studies, we find a negative effect of households' indebtedness on their consumption, even in the absence of negative shock on their assets. Our findings suggest that, without such a shock, it is the day-to-day sustainability of the debt, rather than its overall sustainability, that leads households to reduce their consumption. We perform as well a threshold analysis, whose results suggest that households should not have a debt-service-to-income ratio greater than 30%. The effect appears to be robust to various specifications, to result from a trade-off between housing and consumption, and to be more prevalent among more fragile households.
    Keywords: households, indebtedness, consumption, debt-service-to-income, non-linear heterogeneous effects
    JEL: D12 D14 E21
    Date: 2021–03
  57. By: Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary); Jaeger, David A. (University of St. Andrews); McHenry, Peter (College of William and Mary)
    Abstract: We present a novel theory that immigrants facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship by being willing and able to invest in new skills. Immigrants whose human capital is not immediately transferable to the host country face lower opportunity costs of investing in new skills or methods and will be more exible in their human capital investments than observationally equivalent natives. Areas with large numbers of immigrants may therefore lead to more entrepreneurship and innovation, even among natives. We provide empirical evidence from the United States that is consistent with the theory's predictions.
    Keywords: immigration, innovation, entrepreneurship, human capital
    JEL: J15 J24 J39 J61 L26
    Date: 2021–03
  58. By: Hana Hejlova; Michal Hlavacek; Blanka Vackova
    Abstract: In this article, we estimate the misalignment of commercial property prices. To this end, we propose a semi-structural model which imitates the functioning of various segments of the commercial real estate market. To estimate this model, we use a unique set of data on the markets for two property types (office and industrial) in five CEE countries and Germany, provided by JLL. First, we estimate the model for each property type on a panel of countries to capture the international nature of the markets. Secondly, for the example of the Czech Republic we estimate the model on a panel of property types to capture the possible orientation of individual investors towards a certain country. Finally, we compare the outcomes. The results suggest that investors tend to orientate towards certain property types rather than particular countries. It also shows that our approach avoids the end-point bias which can be present when assessing commercial property prices with an HP filter.
    Keywords: Commercial property, misalignment of prices, types of property
    JEL: C31 E58 R32
    Date: 2020–12
  59. By: Pina-Sánchez, Jose; Buil-Gil, David (University of Manchester); brunton-smith, ian; Cernat, Alexandru
    Abstract: Objectives: Assess the extent to which measurement error in police recorded crime rates impact the estimates of regression models exploring the causes and consequences of crime. Methods: We focus on linear models where crime rates are included either as the response or as an explanatory variable, in their original scale, or log-transformed. Two measurement error mechanisms are considered, systematic errors in the form of under-recorded crime, and random errors in the form of recording inconsistencies across areas. The extent to which such measurement error mechanisms impact model parameters is demonstrated algebraically, using formal notation, and graphically, using simulations. Results: Most coefficients and measures of uncertainty from models where crime rates are included in their original scale are severely biased. However, in many cases, this problem could be minimised, or altogether eliminated by log-transforming crime rates. This transforms the multiplicative measurement error observed in police recorded crime rates into a less harmful additive mechanism. Conclusions: The validity of findings from regression models where police recorded crime rates are used in their original scale is put into question. In interpreting the large evidence base exploring the effects and consequences of crime using police statistics we urge researchers to consider the biasing effects shown here. Equally, we urge researchers to log-transform crime rates before they are introduced in statistical models.
    Date: 2021–02–03

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