nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒03‒08
sixty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Charter Schools’ Effectiveness, Mechanisms, and Competitive Influence By Sarah R. Cohodes; Katharine S. Parham
  2. Dissimilarity effects on house prices: What is the value of similar neighbours? By Bonakdar, Said Benjamin; Roos, Michael W. M.
  3. Real estate transaction taxes and credit supply By Koetter, Michael; Marek, Philipp; Mavropoulos, Antonios
  4. Widespread race and class disparities in surface urban heat extremes across the United States By Benz, Susanne A.; Burney, Jennifer
  5. The housing market in Spain: 2014-2019 By Dirección General de Economía y Estadística
  6. Urban Growth Shadows By David Cuberes; Klaus Desmet; Jordan Rappaport
  7. Household wealth: what is it, who has it, and why it matters By Horan, David; Lydon, Reamonn; McIndoe-Calder, Tara
  8. The option value of vacant land: Don't build when demand for housing is booming By Rutger-Jan Lange; Coen N. Teulings
  9. Peers' Race in Adolescence and Voting Behavior By Polipciuc, Maria; Cörvers, Frank; Montizaan, Raymond
  10. Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work By Christopher T. Stanton; Pratyush Tiwari
  11. The Importance of Peer Quality for Completion of Higher Education By Humlum, Maria Knoth; Thorsager, Mette
  12. The role of social housing in reducing inequality in South African cities By Andreas SCHEBA; Ivan TUROK; Justin VISAGIE
  13. Accessibility and congestion in European cities: Final deliverable of Task 1 of the REGIOTRANSII project By Aris Christodoulou; Panayotis Christidis
  14. Rapid Reporting of Vehicle Crash Data in California to Understand Impacts from COVID-19 Pandemic on Traffic and Incidents By Waetjen, David PhD; Shilling, Fraser PhD
  15. Do Lenders Still Discriminate? A Robust Approach for Assessing Differences in Menus By Paul S. Willen; David Hao Zhang
  16. To rent or not to rent: A household finance perspective on Berlin's short-term rental regulation By Mavropoulos, Antonios
  17. Urban Design that Reduces Vehicle Miles Traveled Can Create Economic Benefits By Boarnet, Marlon G.; Burinskiy, Evgeny; Deaderick, Lauren; Guillen, Danielle; Ryu, Nicholas
  18. Scaling of Urban Income Inequality in the United States By Elisa Heinrich Mora; Jacob J. Jackson; Cate Heine; Geoffrey B. West; Vicky Chuqiao Yang; Christopher P. Kempes
  19. Homeowners have easier and cheaper access to business credit By Benedikt Vogt
  20. Multiple deprivation in Athens: a legacy of persisting and deepening spatial divisions By Arapoglou, Vassilis; Karadimitriou, Nikos; Maloutas, Thomas; Sayas, John
  21. Does urban concentration matter for changes in country economic performance? By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  22. Central exams and adult skills: Evidence from PIAAC By Leschnig, Lisa; Schwerdt, Guido; Zigova, Katarina
  23. Impact of Housing Policy Uncertainty on Herding Behavior: Evidence from UK's Regional Housing Markets By Geoffrey M. Ngene; Rangan Gupta
  24. Racial Inequality and Minimum Wages in Frictional Labor Markets By Wursten, Jesse; Reich, Michael
  25. Administrative reforms, urban hierarchy, and local population growth. Lessons from Italian unification By Giulio Cainelli; Carlo Ciccarelli; Roberto Ganau
  26. Public intervention in the rental housing market: a review of international experience By David López-Rodríguez; María de los Llanos Matea
  27. What is essential travel? Socio-economic differences in travel demand during the COVID-19 lockdown By Kar, Armita; Le, Huyen T. K.; Miller, Harvey J.
  28. Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Error Correction Networks and Common Correlated Effects By Arnab Bhattacharjee; Sean Holly; Jan Ditzen
  29. Community influence as an explanatory factor why Roma children get little schooling By Stark, Oded; Berlinschi, Ruxanda
  30. Sick of Your Poor Neighborhood? By Linea Hasager; Mia Jørgensen
  31. Drive less, drive better, or both? Behavioral adjustments to fuel price changes in Germany By Alberini, Anna; Horvath, Marco; Vance, Colin
  32. Institutions and the Productivity Challenge for European Regions By Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Roberto Ganau;
  33. Reclaiming public space in Kuwait’s residential neighbourhoods: an applied policy-oriented approach By Peca Amaral Gomes, Alexandra; Al-Ragam, Asseel; AlShalfan, Sharifa
  34. Faith and Assimilation: Italian Immigrants in the US By Stefano Gagliarducci; Marco Tabellini
  35. High School Dropout and the Intergenerational Transmission of Crime By Dragone, Davide; Migali, Giuseppe; Zucchelli, Eugenio
  36. Will urban air mobility fly? The efficiency and distributional impacts of UAM in different urban spatial structures By Anna Straubinger; Erik T. Verhoef; Henri L.F. de Groot
  37. COVID-19, Race, and Redlining By Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
  38. Train to Opportunity: the Effect of Infrastructure on Intergenerational Mobility By Julián Costas-Fernández; José-Alberto Guerra; Myra Mohnen
  39. Revisiting the causal effect of education on political participation and interest By Bömmel, Nadja; Heineck, Guido
  40. Depowering Risk: Vehicle Power Restriction and Teen Driver Accidents in Italy By R. Brau; M. G. Nieddu; S. Balia
  41. A Review of Public Transport Policies in Remote Communities in Chile By Roberto Villalobos; Marcela Muñoz; Natalia Berríos; Eduardo Koffman
  42. Social capital and economic growth in the regions of Europe By Muringani, Jonathan; Dahl Fitjar, Rune; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  43. A Structural Econometric Approach to Analyzing the Impact of Teacher Pension Reform By Wei Kong; Shawn Ni
  44. Economies of scale in public primary and junior high school education in Japan -an empirical analysis focusing on expense categories- By Miki Miyaki; Nobuo Akai
  45. Location, location, location! - A quality-adjusted rent index for the Oslo office market By Anundsen, André K.; Hagen, Marius
  46. Intergroup contact and its effects on discriminatory attitudes: Evidence from India By Shreya Bhattacharya
  47. Does Bankruptcy Protection Affect Asset Prices? Evidence from changes in Homestead Exemptions By Yildiray Yildirim; Albert Alex Zevelev
  48. The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: evidence from UK’s single regeneration budget By Gibbons, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.; Sarvimäki, Matti
  49. Intended Bequests and Housing Equity in Older Age By Gary V. Engelhardt; Michael D. Eriksen
  50. Summary of Interviews with California Metropolitan Planning Organizations About Senate Bill 375 and the Sustainable Communities Strategies By Amini, Jazmin; Kerchof, Clay; Mathews, Laurel; Thompson, Matthew
  51. From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse By Förster, Manuel; Karos, Dominik
  52. Raising Truck Speed Limits in California Could Increase Mobility But May Also Increase Crashes By Zhang, Michael PhD; Musabbir, Sarder Rafee
  53. COVID-19, Public Charge Rules, and Immigrant Employment in the United States By Dias, Felipe A; Chance, Joseph
  54. Persecution and Escape : Professional Networks and High-Skilled Emigration from Nazi Germany By Becker, Sascha O.; Lindenthal, Volker; Mukand, Sharun; Waldinger, Fabian
  55. Setting a Good Example? Examining Sibling Spillovers in Educational Achievement Using a Regression Discontinuity Design By Karbownik, Krzysztof; Özek, Umut
  56. Chapter 6: Mobility on Demand: Evolving and Growing Shared Mobility in the Suburbs of Northern Virginia By Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Farrar, Emily
  57. Euro area house price fluctuations and unconventional monetary policy surprises By Hülsewig, Oliver; Rottmann, Horst
  58. Convergence of Income across Central Provinces and Cities in Vietnam By Ly Dai Hung
  59. Partial Order Algorithms for the Assessment of Italian Cities Sustainability By Arcagni, Alberto; Cavalli, Laura; Fattore, Marco
  60. The core for housing markets with limited externalities By Bettina Klaus; Claudio Meo
  61. Trends of International Migration since Post-World War II By David, Blight
  62. The Contingent Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence From Education Reforms in Tanzania By Opalo, Ken Ochieng'; Habyarimana, James; Schipper, Youdi

  1. By: Sarah R. Cohodes; Katharine S. Parham
    Abstract: This paper reviews the research on the impacts of charter school attendance on students’ academic and other outcomes, the mechanisms behind those effects, and the influence of charter schools on nearby traditional public schools, almost three decades after the first charter school was established. Across the United States, charter schools appear to perform, on average, at about the same level as their district counterparts. Underlying the similarity in performance across sectors is a consistent finding: charters located in urban areas boost student test scores, particularly for Black, Latinx, and low-income students. Attending some urban charter schools also increases college enrollment and voting and reduces risky behavior, but evidence on such longer-term outcomes has been found in only a few sites and has a limited time horizon. No Excuses charter schools generate test score gains, but their controversial disciplinary practices are not a necessary a condition for academic success. Charter school teachers tend to be less qualified and more likely to leave the profession than traditional public school teachers, though the labor market implications are understudied. The influence of charter authorizers and related accountability structures is also limited and would benefit from more rigorous examination. The competitive impact of charter schools on traditional public schools suggests a small, beneficial influence on neighboring schools’ student achievement, though there is variation across contexts. Charters also appear to induce a negative financial impact for districts, at least in the short term. Finally, there is competing evidence on charters’ contribution to school racial segregation, and little evidence on the impact of newer, intentionally diverse school models. While we know much about charter schools, more research, in more contexts, is needed to further understand where, for whom, and why charters are most effective.
    JEL: H75 I2 I21
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Bonakdar, Said Benjamin; Roos, Michael W. M.
    Abstract: Residential choice does not only depend on properties of the dwelling, neighborhood amenities and affordability, but is also affected by the population composition within a neighbourhood. All these attributes are capitalised in the house price. Empirically, it is not easy to disentangle the effect of the neighbourhood on house prices from the effects of the dwelling attributes. We implement an agentbased model of an urban housing market that allows us to analyse the interaction between residential choice, population composition in a neighbourhood and house prices. Agents differ in terms of education, income and group affiliation (majority vs. minority). The results show that the "wrong" neighbourhood can lead to an average house price depreciation of up to 13,500 monetary units or 7.1 percent. Whereas rich agents can afford to move to preferred places, roughly 13.01% of poor minorities and 8.02% of poor majority agents are locked in their current neighbourhood. By introducing a policy that provides agents more access to credit, we find that all population groups denote higher satisfaction levels. Poor agents show the largest improvements. The general satisfaction level across all population groups increases. However, the extra credit accessibility also drives up house prices and leads to higher wealth inequality within the city. If agents have a preference for status rather than for similarity, the effect of the overall inequality is smaller, since agents become more satisfied living in areas with less similar agents.
    Keywords: Agent-based modelling,residential choice,housing demand,neighbourhood characteristics,house prices
    JEL: C63 R21 R23 R32
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Koetter, Michael; Marek, Philipp; Mavropoulos, Antonios
    Abstract: We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.
    Keywords: Fiscal Shocks,Real Estate Markets,Mortgage Lending,Price-to-Rentratio
    JEL: H30 R00 R31
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Benz, Susanne A.; Burney, Jennifer
    Abstract: Here we use 1000-m satellite land surface temperature anomaly measurements to explore the distribution of the United States' urban heating burden, both at high resolution (within cities or counties) and at scale (across the whole contiguous United States). While a rich literature has documented neighborhood-level disparities in urban heat exposures in individual cities, data constraints have precluded comparisons across locations. Here, drawing on extreme summer urban heat measurements from all 1056 U.S. counties with more than 10 developed census tracts, we find that the poorest tracts (and those with lowest average education levels) within a county are significantly hotter than the richest (and more educated) neighborhoods for 76% of these counties (54\% for education); we also find that neighborhoods with higher Black, Hispanic, and Asian population shares are hotter than the more White, non-Hispanic areas in each county. This holds in counties with both large and small spreads in these population shares, and for 71% of all counties the significant racial urban heat disparities persist even when adjusting for income. Although individual locations have different histories that have contributed to race- and class-based geographies, we find that the physical features of the urban environments driving these heat exposure gradients are fairly uniform across the country. Systematically, the disproportionate heat exposures faced by minority communities are due to higher population density, more built-up neighborhoods, and less vegetation.
    Date: 2021–02–13
  5. By: Dirección General de Economía y Estadística (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This paper describes the main features of the Spanish housing market during the latest expansionary period (2014-2019), and discusses two aspects relating to its recent situation. First, it analyses the evidence of households’ possible housing affordability difficulties. It finds that these difficulties have been exacerbated in recent years, especially for specific groups such as the young and low-income households, and particularly in certain zones, such as the major metropolitan areas. Next, it reviews the ensuing consequences from the standpoint of economic efficiency and of social challenges, analysing potential public measures that might be considered to alleviate these difficulties. Finally, it assesses the potential systemic risks associated with the residential real estate market, concluding that these were, at end-2019, more limited than those prevalent in the run-up to the financial crisis that broke in 2008.
    Keywords: housing market, mortgage market, housing affordability, systemic risks, public intervention
    JEL: R30 R31 R38 G21 G51
    Date: 2020–05
  6. By: David Cuberes; Klaus Desmet; Jordan Rappaport
    Abstract: Does a location's growth benefit or suffer from being geographically close to large economic centers? Spatial proximity may lead to competition and hurt growth, but it may also improve market access and enhance growth. Using data on U.S. counties and metro areas for the period 1840-2017, we document this tradeoff between urban shadows and urban access. Proximity to large urban centers was negatively associated with growth between 1840 and 1920, and positively associated with growth after 1920. Using a two-city spatial model, we show that the secular evolution of inter-city and intra-city commuting costs can account for this. Alternatively, the long-run decline in inter-city shipping costs relative to intra-city commuting costs is also consistent with these observed patterns.
    JEL: N91 N92 R11 R12
    Date: 2021–02
  7. By: Horan, David (Central Bank of Ireland); Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland); McIndoe-Calder, Tara (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: The distribution of wealth, incomes and spending is crucial to understanding the differential impacts of econmic shocks and recoveries across households. Household wealth in Ireland increased by over 76,000 euro, or 74 per cent, for the median household between 2013 and 2018. House price growth and declining mortgage debt were the primary drivers of this development. Median incomes grew by more than 18 per cent, while wealth inequality – as measured by the gini coefficient – fell over the five year period. The decline in the number of negative equity households – down from 33 to 4 per cent of mortgaged households – is one driver of the fall in inequality. Home ownership has fallen slightly from 2013, and the age at which households take out their first mortgage has risen. Despite wealth in 2018 exceeding the previous peak in 2007, most households are not using this wealth to fund spending or further housing investment, as was previously the case. We find that the household sector continues to inject housing equity at a rate of 10 per cent of disposable income, reflecting, amongst other factors, the continued repayment of mortgage debt taken out at the height of the credit boom in the mid-2000s.
    Keywords: Wealth distribution; Consumption, savings and wealth; Household finance.
    JEL: D31 E21 G5
    Date: 2020–09
  8. By: Rutger-Jan Lange (Erasmus School of Economics); Coen N. Teulings (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: Urban structures and urban growth rates are highly persistent. This has far-reaching implications for the optimal size and timing of new construction. We prove that rational developers postpone construction not because prospects are gloomy, but because they are bright. The slow mean reversion in urban growth rates for the Netherlands and the United States (estimated at 0.07 per annum) implies that a substantial share of cities should optimally postpone construction due to high growth. Observed heterogeneity in floorspace density across cities can be explained not by differences in population levels, but in growth rates.
    Keywords: irreversible investment, mean-reverting growth, real-estate construction, real options, urban growth
    JEL: D81 G12 R14 R31 R51
    Date: 2021–02–24
  9. By: Polipciuc, Maria (Maastricht University); Cörvers, Frank (ROA, Maastricht University); Montizaan, Raymond (ROA, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Using a representative longitudinal survey of U.S. teenagers, we investigate how peer racial composition in high school affects individual turnout of young adults. We exploit across-cohort, within-school differences in peer racial composition. One within-school standard deviation increase in the racial diversity index leads to a 2.2 percent increase in the probability of being registered to vote seven years later and to a 2.6 percent higher probability of voting six years later. These effects are likely due to positive interracial contact when socialization has long-lasting effects: higher racial diversity in school is linked to more interracial friendships in school and later on.
    Keywords: voting behavior, school-cohort racial diversity, peers
    JEL: D72 I24 J15
    Date: 2021–02
  10. By: Christopher T. Stanton; Pratyush Tiwari
    Abstract: This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the pandemic, the expenditure share on housing was more than seven percent higher for remote households compared to similar non-remote households in the same commuting zone. Remote households’ higher housing expenditures arise from larger dwellings (more rooms) and a higher price per room. Pre-COVID, households with remote workers were actually located in areas with above-average housing costs, and sorting within-commuting zone to suburban or rural areas was not economically meaningful. Using the pre-COVID distribution of locations, we estimate how much additional pre-tax income would be necessary to compensate non-remote households for extra housing expenses arising from remote work in the absence of geographic mobility, and we compare this compensation to commercial office rents in major metro areas.
    JEL: J32 J81 J82 R21 R3 R40
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Humlum, Maria Knoth (Aarhus University); Thorsager, Mette (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Applied Social Science)
    Abstract: Using detailed Danish administrative data covering the entire population of students entering higher education in the period 1985 to 2010, we investigate the importance of a student's peers in higher education for the decision to drop out. We use high school GPA as a predetermined measure of student ability and idiosyncratic variation in peer composition across cohorts within the same education and institution. Our findings suggest that peer ability is an important determinant of students' drop out decisions as well as later labor market outcomes. Overall, we find that a one standard deviation increase in peers' high school GPA reduces the probability of dropping out by 4.6 percentage points. This number masks considerable heterogeneity by level and field of study. Allowing for a more flexible specification, we find that low quality peers have adverse effects on the probability of dropping out while high quality peers have beneficial effects. These effects are more pronounced for lower ability students.
    Keywords: dropout, peer effects, peer quality, higher education
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2021–02
  12. By: Andreas SCHEBA; Ivan TUROK; Justin VISAGIE
    Abstract: Social housing is a powerful tool to integrate divided cities by providing decent rental accommodation for low- and moderate-income working families. It can bring communities together in dense urban areas with plentiful opportunities, and revitalise run down inner cities. Success depends on several enabling conditions: capable social housing agencies, viable subsidy levels, well-located land, support across government, private sector involvement and determined implementation. The paper maps the spatial distribution of all social housing projects built in South Africa’s seven largest cities since the 1990s. It reveals a steady ‘spatial drift’ of new projects from inner urban areas towards outlying areas. This contradicts the objectives of urban restructuring and social integration. The dispersal trend has been driven by the high cost of private land and the failure to make surplus public land available. Recommendations are offered to steer social housing schemes back towards well-located areas.
    Keywords: Afrique du Sud
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2021–02–08
  13. By: Aris Christodoulou (European Commission - JRC); Panayotis Christidis (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This is the second and final deliverable of the 1st task of the REGIOTRANSII project and refers to the results that have already been presented in two scientific journal publications: Christodoulou et al. (2020) and Christodoulou and Christidis (in press), and a JRC Technical Report: Christodoulou and Christidis (2020a). Different accessibility indicators are calculated for all urban areas with more than 250 thousand people in the EU27, the UK, Switzerland and Norway. Each city is analysed by means of a population grid of 500 m by 500 m and represented by a wider area covering both the densely populated urban centre and the commuting zone. To capture congestion, we measure accessibility for each grid cell at different times of the day that correspond to different traffic conditions using the detailed network and congestion information provided by TomTom.
    Keywords: accessibility, congestion, European cities, REGIOTRANS, fine resolution
    Date: 2020–12
  14. By: Waetjen, David PhD; Shilling, Fraser PhD
    Abstract: In 2015, the Road Ecology Center at UC Davis developed a web-based method to collect all incident data that appear on the CHP real-time incident-reporting website ( These data are assembled into a database called CHIPS, the California Highway Incident Processing System. Previous analyses suggest that these data are more spatially accurate than other state resources (e.g., the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS)). Because they are collected and organized in real-time, they can also be shared and queried more easily. The current project developed a web-portal that supports queries for counties and specific highways ( traffic). The results shown make apparent the reduction in crashes and traffic during the summer 2020 peak of the COVID19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Engineering, Traffic incidents, traffic data, crash data, crash rates, databases, websites, data fusion, real time information, geospatial data
    Date: 2021–02–01
  15. By: Paul S. Willen; David Hao Zhang
    Abstract: We use a new methodology to assess mortgage pricing discrimination faced by minority borrowers. We identify a “menu problem” that comes from the multidimensional nature of mortgage pricing: When getting a mortgage, borrowers can choose to avoid closing costs and pay a high interest rate or contribute to closing costs to get a lower rate. While data on both dimensions of mortgage pricing are by now often available, intuitively attractive metrics of lender pricing discrimination used in the literature can lead to both false and contradictory results. For example, it is sometimes observed that conditional on rate, minority borrowers pay the same closing costs as white borrowers, but conditional on closing costs, minority borrowers pay a higher rate. Though generally underappreciated, the menu problem is broadly relevant in economic assessments of differences in opportunity given data on outcomes. We develop a solution to the menu problem by defining (1) a test statistic for equality in menus and (2) a difference in menus (DIM) metric for assessing whether one group of borrowers would prefer to switch to another group’s menus, both based on pairwise dominance relationships in the data. Our proposed solution is robust to arbitrary heterogeneity in borrower preferences across racial groups. We show how our metrics can be computed using methods from optimal transport and also devise a new procedure for hypothesis testing in this class of problems based on directional differentiation. Finally, we implement our methodology on a data set linking 2018–2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to Optimal Blue rate locks, and present novel results on mortgage pricing discrimination.
    Keywords: mortgage pricing discrimination; minority borrowers; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act
    JEL: G21 G51
    Date: 2020–12–01
  16. By: Mavropoulos, Antonios
    Abstract: With the increasing concerns that accompany the rising trends of house sharing economies, regulators impose new laws to counteract housing supply scarcity. In this paper, I investigate whether the ban on short-term entire house listings activated in Berlin in May 2016 had any adverse effects from a household finance perspective. More specifically, I derive short-term rental income and counter-factually compare it with long-term rental income to find that the ban, by decreasing the supply of short-term housing, accelerated short-term rental income but did not have any direct effect on long-term rental income. Commercial home-owners therefore would find renting on the short-term market to be financially advantageous.
    Keywords: Airbnb,housing markets,sharing economy regulation,short-term rental markets
    JEL: D31 R30 R31
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Boarnet, Marlon G.; Burinskiy, Evgeny; Deaderick, Lauren; Guillen, Danielle; Ryu, Nicholas
    Abstract: Practitioners and scholars have traditionally held the view that building transportation infrastructure, such as highways that facilitate more driving, will improve economic development. Evidence for this view was derived from construction of new transportation networks such as the Interstate Highway System in the 1950s and 1960s that forged new regional connections and contributed to economic growth. But now, decades later, infrastructure improvements to a mature system have less-clear benefits and may simply shift economic activity around. More recently, as cities and regions have begun implementing policies to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the question of the economic role of less VMT has emerged. In many cases, higher economic performance is associated with walkable, pedestrian-oriented neighborhoods, designed in ways that reduce car travel. Researchers at the University of Southern California reviewed the literature on property values, business sentiment, and productivity to understand how VMT-reducing place-making can help boost neighborhood economies. Placemaking refers to transportation projects that reduce driving and become neighborhood amenities such as complete streets, pedestrian malls, or bicycle sharing. The research showed neighborhoods that support alternatives to car travel are associated with higher—not lower—economic vitality. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Economic benefits, Land use planning, Livability, Neighborhoods, Nonmotorized transportation, Social benefits, Travel demand management, Vehicle miles of travel, Walkability
    Date: 2021–02–01
  18. By: Elisa Heinrich Mora; Jacob J. Jackson; Cate Heine; Geoffrey B. West; Vicky Chuqiao Yang; Christopher P. Kempes
    Abstract: Urban scaling analysis, the study of how aggregated urban features vary with the population of an urban area, provides a promising framework for discovering commonalities across cities and uncovering dynamics shared by cities across time and space. Here, we use the urban scaling framework to study an important, but under-explored feature in this community - income inequality. We propose a new method to study the scaling of income distributions by analyzing total income scaling in population percentiles. We show that income in the least wealthy decile (10%) scales close to linearly with city population, while income in the most wealthy decile scale with a significantly superlinear exponent. In contrast to the superlinear scaling of total income with city population, this decile scaling illustrates that the benefits of larger cities are increasingly unequally distributed. For the poorest income deciles, cities have no positive effect over the null expectation of a linear increase. We repeat our analysis after adjusting income by housing cost, and find similar results. We then further analyze the shapes of income distributions. First, we find that mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of income distributions all increase with city size. Second, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a city's income distribution and that of the largest city decreases with city population, suggesting the overall shape of income distribution shifts with city population. As most urban scaling theories consider densifying interactions within cities as the fundamental process leading to the superlinear increase of many features, our results suggest this effect is only seen in the upper deciles of the cities. Our finding encourages future work to consider heterogeneous models of interactions to form a more coherent understanding of urban scaling.
    Date: 2021–02
  19. By: Benedikt Vogt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: Banks often demand collateral for business loans. Apart from business assets, for many small entrepreneurs their own home is the most important security they can offer. The interaction between the housing market and entrepreneurial credit can therefore amplify the consequences of an economic crisis. Because of declining collateral values, the probability of obtaining credit could be lower, making it more difficult to finance entrepreneurial activities. Between 2008 and 2013, real house prices declined by nearly 25 percent in the Netherlands. Such a decline in house prices can amplify the effect of an economic crisis via the credit channel for small entrepreneurs. In the economic literature this effect is known as collateral lending channel. In this study we answer three questions: to what extent did the decrease in house prices impact the incidence of bank credit of small companies? what is the relationship between the housing market status of an entrepreneur and the costs of credit? Is there, as a consequence, an association between the housing market status and entrepreneurial exits?
    JEL: G23 L26 R2 R31
    Date: 2021–03
  20. By: Arapoglou, Vassilis; Karadimitriou, Nikos; Maloutas, Thomas; Sayas, John
    Abstract: This paper, first time in the Greek literature, measures and maps multiple deprivation in Athens in 2001 and three years into the economic crisis, in 2011, capturing the effects of two decades of urban development. We find that the spatial distribution of multiple deprivation in Athens, follows a centre-periphery as well as an east-west division that has persisted through time, and deepened during the decade of the 2000s. These divisions are linked to the political construction of the Athenian space, the way that the state has historically shaped how the city developed during the post-war period and has responded to the sovereign debt crisis since 2009. We argue that given the scale and persistency of multiple deprivation it is about time to reconsider the role of Greek urban regeneration policies that are implemented within a politically controlled and fragmented field of planning, without openly addressing redistribution and equity concerns.
    Keywords: multiple deprivation; social disadvantage; urban development; Athens; Greece
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2021–03–01
  21. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: This paper uses a novel, globally-harmonised city-level dataset —with cities defined at the Functional Urban Area (FUA) level— to revisit the link between urban concentration and country-level economic dynamics. The empirical analysis, involving 108 low- and high-income countries, examines how differences in urban concentration impinge on changes in employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and labour productivity at country level over the period 2000-2016. The results indicate that urban concentration reduces employment growth, but increases GDP per capita and labour productivity growth. The returns of urban concentration are higher for high- than for low-income countries, and are mainly driven by the ‘core’ of FUAs, rather than by sub-urban areas.
    Keywords: Urban concentration; long-run economic dynamics; employment growth; GDP per capita growth; labour productivity; Cross-country analysis
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2021–02–10
  22. By: Leschnig, Lisa; Schwerdt, Guido; Zigova, Katarina
    Abstract: Central exams are often hypothesized to favorably affect incentive structures in schools. Indeed, previous research provides vast evidence on the positive effects of central exams on student test scores. But critics warn that these effects may arise through the strategic behavior of students and teachers, which may not affect human capital accumulation in the long run. Exploiting variation in examination types across school systems and over time, we provide the first evidence that central exams positively affect adult skills. However, our estimates are small compared to the existing estimates for students, which may indicate some fade-out in the effect on skills over time.
    JEL: I20 J24 J31
    Date: 2021–02–25
  23. By: Geoffrey M. Ngene (Stetson-Hatcher School of Business (SHSB), Mercer University, 1501 Mercer University Drive, Macon, GA 32107, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of housing policy uncertainty on the herding behavior in the UK's regional housing markets. Using a sample of thirteen regional housing markets and quarterly data from 1973Q4 to 2019Q2, we find that the probability of herding behavior is increasing in policy uncertainty in nine of the thirteen regions and the national housing market. However, London and the Outer Metro regions, which have a high presence of institutional investors and high population, exhibit decreasing probability of herding as policy uncertainty increases. We attribute this to the presence of informed investors and low asset value uncertainty. Therefore, since herding amplify market volatility, instability, fragility and asset mispricing, policy makers need to minimize policy uncertainties and implement regulatory mechanisms such as circuit breakers to circumvent the policy information risk from inducing non-information and irrational herding behavior among the investors.
    Keywords: Herding, Regional Housing Markets, Housing Policy Uncertainty, United Kingdom
    JEL: C32 G11 G14
    Date: 2021–02
  24. By: Wursten, Jesse; Reich, Michael
    Abstract: We examine how the racial patchwork of federal and state minimum wage changes between 1990 and 2019 has affected racial wage gaps, with specific attention to effects on labor market frictions. Black workers on average are less likely to live in high-wage states that have raised their wage floors. The effect of state minimum wages on the national racial wage gap is thus not self-evident. Using five different causal specifications, including the “bunching” estimator of Cengiz et al. (2019), and data from the CPS and the QWI, we find that minimum wage changes since 1990 did reduce the 2019 racial wage gaps, by 12 percent among all workers and 60 percent among less-educated workers. The reductions are greater among black women and among black prime age workers. The gains for black workers are concentrated well above the new minimum wage, beyond the usual spillover estimates. Earnings of all race/ethnic/gender groups grew, with larger effects among black workers. We do not find disemployment effects for any group. Surprisingly, racial differences in initial wages do not explain the reduction in the racial wage gap. Rather, minimum wages expand job opportunities for black workers more than for white workers. We present a model in which minimum wages assist the job search of workers who do not own automobiles and who live farther from jobs. Our causal results using the ACS show that minimum wages increase commuting via automobile among black workers, supporting our model. Minimum wages also reduce racial gaps in separations and hires, further suggesting the policies especially enhance job opportunities for black workers.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, racial wage gaps, minimum wages, black wages, Hispanic wages, labor markets
    Date: 2021–02–04
  25. By: Giulio Cainelli; Carlo Ciccarelli; Roberto Ganau
    Abstract: We analyze the local-level demographic effects of the 1865 Italian “Lanza administrative reform†. This reform established the skeleton and functioning of the entire public administration in the Kingdom of Italy, unified in 1861, by re-assigning administrative functions to municipalities throughout the country. We focus on municipality-level population dynamics over the period 1861-2011, while also providing evidence of more recent local-level economic performance. We rely on ‘generalized’ difference-in-differences and matching techniques, and find that municipalities that emerged from the reform with new or increased administrative functions at supra-municipal level gained a population growth premium, persistent over time. Moreover, local labor market productivity increased during the early 2000s.
    Keywords: Administrative reforms; local population growth; nation-building process; Italy
    JEL: C31 N13 R11
    Date: 2021–02
  26. By: David López-Rodríguez (Banco de España); María de los Llanos Matea (Banco de España)
    Abstract: In recent years, residential rental prices have experienced remarkable growth in many of the major metropolitan areas of advanced economies. On occasions, these increases in rental prices have caused a significant increase in the cost of rental housing in the household consumption basket and difficulties in access to housing for certain groups. In this context, there has been a resurgence of the debate about the role of public policies in the rental housing market, designed to mitigate both the problems of access to housing and the potential negative effects of the growth of rental prices on workers’ mobility or on the macro-financial stability of the economy. In this paper we review the main instruments of public intervention in the residential rental market, in the light of international experience among the main advanced economies. Broadly speaking, the different policies can be classified into three main groups: rent controls; public provision of rental housing; and a wide range of heterogeneous measures aimed at both incentivising the supply of private rental housing and containing the increase in household spending caused by rising rents. The experience accumulated over decades in the development of these policies and the increasing availability of quantitative evaluations of their impact illustrate some of the implementation challenges presented by support policies for residential rentals, as well as the wanted and unwanted consequences associated with this type of intervention.
    Keywords: rental market, rent control, public provision of housing, incentives for housing rental
    JEL: R31 R21 R38 O18 H20 H42 K12 K23 K25 R52
    Date: 2020–03
  27. By: Kar, Armita; Le, Huyen T. K.; Miller, Harvey J.
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped urban mobility. During the lockdown, workers teleworked if possible and left home only for essential activities. Our study investigates the spatial patterns of essential travel and their socio-economic differences during the COVID-19 lockdown phase in comparison with the same period in 2019. Using data from Columbus, Ohio, we categorized travelers into high, moderate, and low socio-economic status (SES) clusters and modeled travel demand of SES clusters for both phases using spatially weighted interaction models. Then, we characterized the SES variability in essential travel based on frequently visited business activities from each cluster. Results suggest that disparities in travel across SES clusters existed prior to COVID-19 are exacerbated during the pandemic lockdown. The diffused travel pattern of high and moderate SES cluster became localized while the pre-existing localized travel pattern of low SES cluster became diffused. During the lockdown, the low and moderate SES clusters travelled mostly for work with long and medium distance trips, respectively, while the high SES cluster travelled mostly for recreational and other non-work purposes with short distance trips. This study draws some conclusions and implications to help researchers and practitioners plan for resilient and economically vibrant transportation systems in response to future shocks.
    Date: 2021–02–16
  28. By: Arnab Bhattacharjee; Sean Holly; Jan Ditzen
    Abstract: We provide a way to represent spatial and temporal equilibria in terms of error correction models in a panel setting. This requires potentially two different processes for spatial or network dynamics, both of which can be expressed in terms of spatial weights matrices. The first captures strong cross-sectional dependence, so that a spatial difference, suitably defined, is weakly cross-section dependent (granular) but can be nonstationary. The second is a conventional weights matrix that captures short-run spatio-temporal dynamics as stationary and granular processes. In large samples, cross-section averages serve the first purpose and we propose the mean group, common correlated effects estimator together with multiple testing of cross-correlations to provide the short-run spatial weights. We apply this model to the 324 local authorities of England, and show that our approach is useful for modelling weak and strong cross-section dependence, together with partial adjustments to two long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run spatio-temporal dynamics. This exercise provides new insights on the (spatial) long run relationship between house prices and income in the UK.
    Keywords: Spatio-temporal dynamics, Error Correction Models, Weak and strong cross sectional dependence
    JEL: C21 C22 C23 R3
    Date: 2021–02
  29. By: Stark, Oded; Berlinschi, Ruxanda
    Abstract: Parents who experience poverty and who want to provide their children with an escape route can be expected to encourage and support their progeny's education. The evidence that Roma parents behave differently is unsettling. In this paper we test empirically an explanation for that behavior. The explanation is based on a theory (Stark et al. 2018) that can be 'borrowed' to rationalize the enforcement of norms of little formal education in underprivileged communities. An analysis of survey data collected in Roma communities in four Central and Eastern European countries lends support to the explanation. The analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between the influence of the Roma community on an individual member's life and the importance accorded by the individual to formal schooling for children. The correlation is robust to controlling for standard determinants of attitudes towards schooling, such as poverty, unemployment, labor market discrimination, and parents' educational attainment. The analysis suggests that policy interventions aiming to increase the formal education of Roma children need to reckon with the influence of Roma community norms on individual choices.
    Keywords: Community influence,Social norms,Social distance,Exposure to relative deprivation,Roma communities,Formal education of children
    JEL: J15 J24 J70 O12 Z13
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Linea Hasager (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Mia Jørgensen (Danmarks Nationalbank)
    Abstract: Does living in a low-income neighborhood have negative health consequences? We document causal neighborhood effects on health by exploiting a Spatial Dispersal Policy that quasi-randomly resettled refugees across neighborhoods from 1986-1998. The risk of developing a lifestyle related disease before 2018 increased by 5.1 percent for those allocated to the poorest third of neighborhoods compared with those in the richest third of neighborhoods. Our results suggest that interaction with neighbors and the characteristics of the immediate environment are important determinants for health outcomes. Differences in health care access, ethnic networks, and individual labor market outcomes cannot explain our findings.
    Keywords: health inequality, refugee dispersal policy, lifestyle related diseases, neighborhood effects
    JEL: J15 I12 I14 I31
    Date: 2021–02–09
  31. By: Alberini, Anna; Horvath, Marco; Vance, Colin
    Abstract: The demand for motor fuel should decline when its price rises, but how exactly does that happen? Do people drive less, do they drive more carefully to conserve fuel, or do they do both? To answer these questions, we use data from the German Mobility Panel from 2004 to 2019, taking advantage of the fluctuations in motor fuel prices over time and across locales to see how they affect Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) and on-road fuel economy (expressed in kilometers per liter). Our reduced-form regressions show that while the VKTs driven by gasoline cars decrease when the price of gasoline rises, their fuel economy tends to get worse. It is unclear why this happens. Perhaps attempts to save on gasoline-cutting on solo driving, forgoing long trips on the highway, driving more in the city-end up compromising the fuel economy. By contrast, both the VKTs and the fuel economy of diesel cars appear to be insensitive to changes in the price of diesel. Latent class models confirm our main findings, including the fact that while fuel prices, car attributes, and household and location characteristics explain much of the variation in the VKTs, it remains difficult to capture the determinants of on-road fuel economy. Since the price elasticity of fuel consumption is the difference between the price elasticity of VKT and the price elasticity of the fuel economy, our results suggest that the fuel economy might be the "weakest link" of price-based policies that seek to address environmental externalities, such as a carbon tax.
    Keywords: On-Road fuel economy,price elasticity,vehicle kilometers traveled,motor fuel prices
    JEL: Q41 Q53 Q54 R41
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Roberto Ganau;
    Abstract: Europe has witnessed a considerable labour productivity slowdown in recent decades. Many potential explanations have been proposed to address this productivity ‘puzzle’. However, how the quality of local institutions influences labour productivity has been overlooked by the literature. This paper addresses this gap by evaluating how institutional quality affects labour productivity growth and, particularly, its determinants at the regional level during the period 2003-2015. The results indicate that institutional quality influences regions’ labour productivity growth both directly —as improvements in institutional quality drive productivity growth— and indirectly —as the short- and long-run returns of human capital and innovation on labour productivity growth are affected by regional variations in institutional quality.
    Keywords: Labour productivity; institutional quality; physical capital; human capital; innovation; regions; Europe
    JEL: E24 J24 O47 R11
    Date: 2021–02
  33. By: Peca Amaral Gomes, Alexandra; Al-Ragam, Asseel; AlShalfan, Sharifa
    Abstract: Kuwait’s population is expanding rapidly and accommodating this growth through sustainable urban development will be a challenge for the small emirate. This calls for a shift in current urbanisation patterns that are contributing to high levels of motorisation, public space neglect, physical inactivity and health and environmental problems.1 These negative externalities are coupled with unsustainable and profit-driven regeneration schemes that neglect the relationship between everyday behaviour and public space. Consequently, re-evaluating the relationship between urban growth and public space standards becomes vital. This applied policy-oriented research expands on the limited qualitative studies on public space in Kuwait and challenges state top-down design standards used in planning its residential neighbourhoods. It explores the impact that planning, design, and behavioural factors have on public space use. Building on the existing literature, it also adds a socio-spatial dimension to public space studies and contributes a qualitative policy-oriented approach that is environmentally sustainable and one that leads to healthier social and individual behaviour. A comparative case study method guided the investigation on two local streets in residential neighbourhoods in Kuwait with divergent urban characteristics: 4th Street, Qortuba and AlDimna Street, Salmiya. A qualitative user-centred analysis based on Gehl’s public survey tools2 was then used ‘to measure public space and public life’.3 The findings highlight that an overlap in responsibilities at state planning authorities and limited user-centred policies have hindered the successful use of public space in Kuwait. However, and as this investigation illustrates, public space improvement cannot be achieved with isolated measures. Design improvements to public space must also take into account the cultural and climatic impact of users’ social negotiations that take place in the public space of residential neighbourhoods in Kuwait. This investigation uses the selected case studies to address these different factors. The aim is to explore the impact of qualitative methods of analysis in understanding public space and to use the collected data to generate evidence-based policies that could then be applied on a much larger scale to the sustainable urban development of Kuwait. Effective urban policies and management will promote the necessary change that will help create more vibrant communities.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2021–03–01
  34. By: Stefano Gagliarducci (University of Rome Tor Vergata, EIEF and IZA); Marco Tabellini (Harvard Business School and CEPR)
    Abstract: We study the effects of religious organizations on immigrants' assimilation. We focus on the arrival of Italian Catholic churches in the US between 1900 and 1920, when four million Italians had moved to America, and anti-Catholic sentiments were widespread. We combine newly collected Catholic directories on the presence of Italian churches across years and counties with the full count US Census of Population. We find that Italian churches reduced the social assimilation of Italian immigrants, lowering intermarriage rates and increasing ethnic residential segregation. We find no evidence that this was the result of either lower effort exerted by immigrants to “fit in” the American society or increased desire to vertically transmit national culture. Instead, we provide evidence for other two, non-mutually exclusive, mechanisms. First, Italian churches raised the frequency of interactions among fellow Italians, likely generating peer effects and reducing contact with other groups. Second, they increased the salience of the immigrant community among natives, thereby triggering backlash and discrimination.
    Date: 2021
  35. By: Dragone, Davide (University of Bologna); Migali, Giuseppe (Lancaster University); Zucchelli, Eugenio (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)
    Abstract: We explore the relationship between high school dropout and pupils' adult crime by accounting for the role of the intergenerational transmission of crime. We employ a human capital model of schooling and crime and show that the intergenerational transmission of crime could have a direct effect on adult crime as well as an indirect effect mediated by high school dropout. We empirically assess the relevance of these relationships using fixed effects linear probability models and inverse probability weighting regression adjustment on US data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We find that dropping out from high school and having a convicted father increase the probability of adult crime, with the former presenting a larger effect. Our empirical models also suggest that having a convicted father increases the probability of dropping out from school. This reveals that paternal crime imposes a double penalty on children: it increases their probability of committing crimes later on in life both directly and indirectly via school dropout. When considering the role of the environment, we find that while an early exposure to high levels of crime exacerbates dropping out, it has no direct long-term effect on adult crime. Finally, we show that individual traits may also play a role, as pupils with lower levels of cognitive skills present higher probabilities of adult criminal behaviour and stronger intergenerational effects.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission, crime, high school dropout, Add Health
    JEL: I26 J62 K42
    Date: 2021–02
  36. By: Anna Straubinger (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Erik T. Verhoef (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Henri L.F. de Groot (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Recent technological developments open up possibilities for introducing a vast number of novel mobility concepts in urban environments. One of these new concepts is urban air mobility (UAM). It makes use of passenger drones for on-demand transport in urban settings, promising high travel speeds for those willing and able to pay. This research aims to answer the question how benefits from UAM will be distributed, taking into account the spatial dimension and the differential impacts on low- and high-skilled households. We develop a framework that can more generally be used to assess the welfare impacts resulting from the introduction of novel transport modes. The development of an urban spatial computable general equilibrium model building on the polycentric modelling tradition developed by Anas and co-authors allows for an analysis of mutually dependent effects on the land, labour and product markets, triggered by changes on the transport market. Allowing for an endogenous spatial structure through the introduction of agglomeration effects and an amenity-based approach, the framework investigates the relevance of the initial spatial structure for the impact of the introduction of UAM. Incorporating different skill levels of households allows to assess location choice and travel behaviour for households with different characteristics. A numerical simulation of the model shows that the different initial spatial structures impose comparable welfare changes. Variations in UAM features like marginal cost, prices, land demand for infrastructure, vertical travel speed and access and egress times have a (much) more decisive impact on modal choice and welfare effects than the initial urban structure. Simulations show that considering households of different skill levels brings additional insights, as welfare effects of UAM introduction strongly differ between groups and sometimes even go in opposing directions.
    Keywords: Urban air mobility, spatial equilibrium, welfare effects, agglomeration effects
    JEL: R13 R41 C68
    Date: 2021–02–24
  37. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
    Abstract: Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since|as of June 16, 2020|they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neigh- borhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre- treatment di erences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
    Keywords: COVID-19, deaths, blacks, redlining, vulnerability, Cook County, Chicago.
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Julián Costas-Fernández; José-Alberto Guerra; Myra Mohnen
    Abstract: Can transport infrastructure promote intergenerational mobility? This paper estimates the causal impact of the railroad network on intergenerational occupation mobility in nineteenth century England and Wales. We create a new dataset of father and son pairs by linking individuals across the 100% censuses of 1851, 1881 and 1911. By geolocating individuals down to the street level, we measure access to the railroad network using the distance to the nearest train station. To address the non-random access to the railroad network, we create a hypothetical railway map based solely on geographic cost consideration. We fi nd that sons who grew up one standard deviation (roughly 5 km) closer to the train station are 6 percentage points more likely to work in a different occupation than their father and 5 percentage points more likely to be upward mobile. Access to the railroad network bene tted families at the top and bottom of the occupational ranking. Through a decomposition exercise, we fi nd that the majority of upward mobility is driven by improvements in local labour opportunities
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, infrastructure, spatial mobility
    JEL: H54 J62 N13
    Date: 2020–12–21
  39. By: Bömmel, Nadja; Heineck, Guido
    Abstract: A substantial number of studies suggests a strong relationship between education and aspects of political participation and interest. Only a small body of literature, however, addresses whether these patterns represent causal effects. We add to this research and re-examine the question in the German context. For identification, we exploit an exogenous increase in lower secondary compulsory schooling between 1949 and 1969 in former West Germany, and use data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) to identify individuals' educational biographies more precisely than prior research. Our results reinforce findings from Siedler (2010): multiple regression analyses first indicate a positive, statistically significant correlation between schooling and our measures of political activities. IV estimates, however, are all trivial, for both compliers and the full sample, indicating that the reform did not stimulate longterm changes in political participation and interest.
    Keywords: school reform,political participation,IV estimation,returns to education,Germany
    JEL: I2 H4 H23
    Date: 2020
  40. By: R. Brau; M. G. Nieddu; S. Balia
    Abstract: This paper investigates how a vehicle power limit on young novice drivers impacts teen traffic accidents in Italy. First introduced in 2011, the reform prevents drivers from using high-performance vehicles during their first license year. We combine rich administrative data on severe accidents over the period 2006-2016 with the driving license census to assess whether undergoing the power limit lowers the likelihood of causing a traffic accident. Our difference- in-difference estimates – we leverage on the between-cohort differences in the exposure to the reform – reveal that the power limit reduces road accidents per capita by about 18%, and accidents per licensee by 13%. The effect is entirely determined by a drop in accidents caused by above-limit vehicles and is primarily driven by fewer speed violations. Moreover, the beneficial impact of the one-year restriction period persists even after its expiration. Our findings highlight the importance of policies that, instead of directly targeting risky behaviours, are aimed at reducing exposure to high-risk settings. In frameworks where deterrence policies and screening mechanisms are hard to implement and maintain, these policies stand out as an effective, yet feasible strategy to increase teen road safety.
    Keywords: youth road accidents;risky behaviours;risk exposure;graduated licensing;driving restriction
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Roberto Villalobos (Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications, Chile); Marcela Muñoz (Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications, Chile); Natalia Berríos (Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications, Chile); Eduardo Koffman (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
    Abstract: This report looks at the policies and programmes Chile has been putting in place over the past few decades to foster the development of public transport in remote communities. In particular, it has been taking a regional approach and encouraging private investment in transport.
    Date: 2021–01–07
  42. By: Muringani, Jonathan; Dahl Fitjar, Rune; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: Social capital is an important factor explaining differences in economic growth among regions. However, the key distinction between bonding social capital, which can lead to lock-in and myopia, and bridging social capital, which promotes knowledge flows across diverse groups, has been overlooked in growth research. In this paper, we address this shortcoming by examining how bonding and bridging social capital affect regional economic growth, using data for 190 regions in 21 EU countries, covering eight waves of the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2016. The findings confirm that bridging social capital is linked to higher levels of regional economic growth. Bonding social capital is highly correlated with bridging social capital and associated with lower growth when this is controlled for. We do not find significantly different effects of bonding social capital in regions with more or less bridging social capital, or vice versa. We examine the interaction between social and human capital, finding that bridging social capital is fundamental for stimulating economic growth, especially in low-skilled regions. Human capital also moderates the relationship between bonding social capital and growth, reducing the negative externalities imposed by excessive bonding.
    Keywords: social capital; bonding; bridging; regions; economic growth; EU; forthcoming
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–02–15
  43. By: Wei Kong (School of Business, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics); Shawn Ni (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia)
    Abstract: The growing fiscal cost of K-12 teacher pension plans and pension-induced labor market distortions have led to calls for teacher pension reforms. Dynamic structural econometric models are a useful way to analyze the fiscal and staffing consequences of current and alternative retirement plans. This paper lays out the benefits of the structural econometric modeling approach for analyzing changes to teacher pension plans, and estimates such a model for Missouri public school teachers. The results are then used to simulate effects of a pension reform on teacher retirement and employer pension costs.
    Keywords: teacher retirement, pension reform, structural models
    JEL: H75 I21 J26 J45
    Date: 2021
  44. By: Miki Miyaki (Chuo University, Faculty of Economics); Nobuo Akai (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This study examines economies of scale in public primary and junior high school education focusing on expense categories applying fixed effect analysis to the prefecture-level panel data from the period of FY1980 to FY2016. The estimation results show that there are economies of scale over total ordinary expenditure, personnel expenditure, administrative expenditure, sub activity expenditure (only in primary school) and insurance expenditure. The cost elasticity of the number of students found to be larger in administrative and insurance expenditures than in personnel expenditure. These results remain to be the same even after controlling for the effect of class size on the cost, which implies that in time of declining birthrates, maintaining or expanding class size could achieve financial efficiency. Moreover, after the amendment of the Act on Standards for Class Formation and Fixed Number of School Personnel of Public Compulsory Education Schools in FY2001, since each local government became to be more responsible to decide class size, the magnitude of economies of scale tends to becoming larger.
    Keywords: economies of scale, public education, expense categories
    JEL: C33 H52 H75 I22
    Date: 2021–02
  45. By: Anundsen, André K.; Hagen, Marius
    Abstract: In this paper, we construct a quality-adjusted rent index for the office market in Oslo. Commonly used rent indices are based on average developments or expert opinions. Such indices often suffer from compositional biases or low data coverage. Using detailed data from more than 16,000 rental contracts, we show that compositional biases can have a large impact on rental price developments. By adding building fixed effects to a standard hedonic regression model, we show that the explanatory power increases considerably. Furthermore, indices controlling for micro-location portray a different picture of rent developments than indices that do not take this into account. We also document a considerable rent premium for proximity to a metro station. Finally, we exploit information on contract signature date and find that a more timely detection of turning-points can be achieved by using the signature date instead of the more typically used start date of the lease. The financial system is heavily exposed towards the commercial real estate market and timely detection of turning-points is of major importance to policymakers.
    Keywords: Hedonic index, commercial real estate, financial stability
    JEL: C20 E30 G01 R30 R33
    Date: 2020–02–12
  46. By: Shreya Bhattacharya
    Abstract: The contact hypothesis posits that having diverse neighbours may reduce one's intergroup prejudice. This hypothesis is difficult to test as individuals self-select into neighbourhoods. Using a slum relocation programme in India that randomly assigned neighbours, I examine the effects of exposure to other-caste neighbours on trust and attitudes towards members of other castes. Combining administrative data on housing assignment with original survey data on attitudes, I find evidence corroborating the contact hypothesis.
    Keywords: Caste, Slums, India, Trust, Discrimination, Survey data
    Date: 2021
  47. By: Yildiray Yildirim; Albert Alex Zevelev
    Abstract: Does the ability to protect an asset from unsecured creditors affect its price? This paper identifies the impact of bankruptcy protection on house prices using 139 changes in homestead exemptions. Large increases in the homestead exemption raised house prices 3% before 2005. Smaller exemption increases, to adjust for inflation, did not affect house prices. The effect disappeared after BAPCPA, a 2005 federal law designed to prevent bankruptcy abuse. The effect was bigger in inelastic locations.
    Date: 2021–02
  48. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.; Sarvimäki, Matti
    Abstract: Many governments aim to improve the labour market outcomes of people living in deprived areas through "place-making" initiatives. Economists are often sceptical about the effectiveness of such policies, but empirical evidence on their impacts remains limited. We examine the impact of building subsidised business floor space in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. Our estimates suggest that while the £8.2bn investment into these projects increased the number of jobs located in the targeted neighbourhoods, it did little to improve the employment of local residents.
    Keywords: single regeneration budget; regeneration; employment; neighbourhoods; urban policy; ES/J021342/1; ES/G005966/1; APC paid from UKRI fund
    JEL: R11 J08 H50
    Date: 2021–03–01
  49. By: Gary V. Engelhardt; Michael D. Eriksen
    Abstract: This paper examines how homeownership evolves in old age and around the time of death, using detailed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to assess the extent to which housing wealth held by older Americans might be used to complement Social Security in the provision of retirement income. Critical components of the analysis include the use of rich information on medical diagnoses, functional status, and bequest intentions in a competing-risks proportional hazard model of the likelihood of making a tenure transition out of homeownership, where death is the competing risk. The paper found that: ¥ The age profile of homeownership falls to under 10 percent among the oldest old, which in past studies has been a sufficient statistic for life-cycle behavior. ¥ For a baseline sample of homeowners, roughly half transition to renting before death; the other half die as homeowners. ¥ Health shock and bequest intentions play important roles in explaining why the elderly fail to spend housing wealth via tenure transitions. The policy implications of the findings are: ¥ Along with entitlements to Social Security and employer-provided pensions, housing is the most important asset in elderly portfolios, so that housing might supplement the retirement income of future retirees. ¥ The annual flow of housing bequests is about 4 percent of the aggregate housing value held by older Americans. ¥ About 80 percent of aggregate housing wealth of those 62 and older may be available to support consumption in retirement net of intended bequests.
    Date: 2021–01
  50. By: Amini, Jazmin; Kerchof, Clay; Mathews, Laurel; Thompson, Matthew
    Abstract: In July and August of 2020, a research team of four graduate students from UC Berkeley’s Department of City and Regional Planning conducted interviews with directors and other high-level staff representing several of California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to gather information on the achievements and challenges associated with the implementation of SB 375. Key takeaways from this effort include: 1) MPOs are not requesting additional authorities or oversight of local land use decisions; 2) MPOs use funding as “carrots” to incentivize local plans to align with regional goals, and many MPOs desire more discretionary funding and priority-specific funding; 3) some MPOs want to focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies, such as telecommuting, active transportation, and technological advancement, in order to meet their GHG emission targets; 4) MPOs want the State to develop policies in ways that acknowledge distinct planning nuances and economic and geographic contexts across regions; 5) the process of developing and submitting regional plans to the State for review is staff-intensive and technically complex for MPOs, which takes away from the agencies’ capacity to focus on implementation and other work; 6) Senate Bill 375 has empowered MPOs to consider more deeply the relationship between land use and transportation; and 7) as a result of Senate Bill 375, there is now increased communication and engagement between the MPO and a broader set of stakeholders
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, greenhouse gases, climate change, environmental policy, policy analysis, regional planning vehicle miles of travel, incentives, metropolitan planning organizations, interviews
    Date: 2021–02–01
  51. By: Förster, Manuel (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Karos, Dominik (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Abstract: A designer conducts random searches to detect criminals, and may condition the search probability on individuals' appearance. She updates her belief about the distribution of criminals across appearances using her search results, but incorrectly takes her sample distribution for the population distribution. In equilibrium she employs optimal search probabilities given her belief, and her belief is consistent with her findings. We show that she will be discriminating an appearance if and only if she overestimates the probability of this appearance's being criminal. Moreover, in a linear model, tightening her budget will worsen the situation of those most discriminated against.
    Keywords: Biased inference, police search, naἴve intuitive statistics, racial profiling, discrimination
    Date: 2021–03–01
  52. By: Zhang, Michael PhD; Musabbir, Sarder Rafee
    Abstract: Highway speed limits inherently represent a tradeoff between safety and mobility. While higher speed limits shorten travel times and foster economic benefits (especially for the trucking and logistics industries), they can also increase the likelihood and severity of crashes, as higher vehicle speeds require longer stopping distances and generate more energy during a collision. Highway speed limits are increasing nationwide. While there is no consensus on the optimal speed limit (Figure 1), research generally shows that lower speed limits reduce the frequency and severity of crashes. Likewise, there is mixed evidence on whether a universal speed limit (trucks and passenger vehicles subject to the same speed limit) or a differential speed limit (trucks subject to a lower speed limit than passenger vehicles) is safer. While some evidence indicates that setting lower speed limits for heavier trucks that are slow to stop has safety benefits, other research suggests that differential speed limits create bottlenecks that may actually cause more crashes as cars attempt to overtake slower trucks. California is one of only seven states that set differential speed limits.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2021–02–01
  53. By: Dias, Felipe A; Chance, Joseph
    Abstract: This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immigrant employment in the United States using data from the Current Population Survey. It also provides the first evidence about the impact of the new public charge rules on the employment behavior of immigrants during the post-outbreak recovery. The authors find that among immigrants with household earnings at levels that make them susceptible to inadmissibility under the new rules, noncitizen status is associated with a 3.7% increase in employment among immigrant men. This effect is robust to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic characteristics and various fixed effects, and it is concentrated for men in states with below average unemployment benefit take-up. Findings also show that the differential employment effect is stronger in state-months with higher COVID-19 rates, suggesting that impacted workers may be increasing their workplace exposure to COVID-19.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Labor supply, COVID-19, covid, Public Charge Rule, Immigration, Employment
    Date: 2021–02–02
  54. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University and University of Warwick); Lindenthal, Volker (University of Munich); Mukand, Sharun (University of Warwick); Waldinger, Fabian (University of Munich)
    Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating the escape of persecuted academics from Nazi Germany. From 1933, the Nazi regime started to dismiss academics of Jewish origin from their positions. The timing of dismissals created individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of emigration from Nazi Germany, allowing us to estimate the causal effect of networks for emigration decisions. Academics with ties to more colleagues who had emigrated in 1933 or 1934 (early émigrés) were more likely to emigrate. The early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes†that helped other academics cross over to their destination. Furthermore, we provide some of the first empirical evidence of decay in social ties over time. The strength of ties also decays across space, even within cities. Finally, for high-skilled migrants, professional networks are more important than community networks.
    Date: 2021
  55. By: Karbownik, Krzysztof (Emory University); Özek, Umut (American Institutes for Research)
    Abstract: Using a regression discontinuity design generated by school-entry cutoffs and school records from an anonymous district in Florida, we identify externalities in human capital production function arising from sibling spillovers. We find positive spillover effects from an older to a younger child in less affluent families and negative spillover effects from a younger to an older child in more affluent families. These results provide empirical evidence that educational policies could create both positive and negative within-family externalities depending on the characteristics of the affected households.
    Keywords: school starting age, sibling spillovers, human capital externalities
    JEL: D13 I20 J13
    Date: 2021–02
  56. By: Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Farrar, Emily
    Abstract: For as long as there have been cities, there have been suburbs. Shared mobility—the shared use of a vehicle, bicycle, or other travel mode—is an innovative transportation strategy that enables users to have short-term access to a transportation mode on an as-needed basis. Shared mobility can enhance access and reduce social exclusion in lower-density environments and provide transportation options to carless and public transit-dependent households, particularly in areas without high-quality, fixed-route public transportation service. This chapter discusses the design and evolution of suburbs and how this impacts the transportation network. Additionally, this chapter reviews suburban applications of shared mobility services and provides a case study of shared mobility service deployments in Northern Virginia. The chapter concludes with key takeaways and a discussion of the potential future of shared mobility services in lower-density built environments.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2020–01–01
  57. By: Hülsewig, Oliver; Rottmann, Horst
    Abstract: This paper examines the reaction of house prices in a panel of euro area countries to monetary policy surprises over the period 2010-2019. UsingJordà's (2005) local projection method, we find that house prices rise in response to expansionary monetary policy shocks that can be related to unconventional monetary policy measures. Thus, monetary policy should take into account the risk of house price fluctuations when implementing new large scale policy interventions.
    Keywords: House price fluctuations,unconventional monetary policy,local projection method
    JEL: E52 E58 E32 G21
    Date: 2021
  58. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper asscesses the determinants of income convergence (absolute convergence) across provinces and central cities in Vietnam. The analysis methodology combines the theoretical model based on Solow (1956) with emprical evidence based on a dataset of 63 provinces and central cities over 2010-2019. The result shows that the initial income level, the difference on economic growth rate of each provinces and central cities compared with the leading province and the human capital jointly affect positively the convergence of income. Thus, the paper implies that the public policy for income convergence can focus on the human capital, one of three strategic breakthroughs for the next years.
    Keywords: Convergence of Income,Neo-classical Growth Model,Economics of Regions and Provinces
    Date: 2020–12
  59. By: Arcagni, Alberto; Cavalli, Laura; Fattore, Marco
    Abstract: In this paper, we introduce some recent non-aggregative algorithms, for the construction of synthetic indicators on multi-indicators systems, and exemplify them on data pertaining to the sustainability of main Italian cities. The procedure employs tools from Partial Order Theory and computes the final synthetic scores, without the compensation effects of classical composite indicators, so better preserving the nuances of city sustainability. Since turning multi-indicator systems into single synthetic indicators is unavoidably forcing, the procedure provides also ways to assess the degrees of “rankability” of statistical units, so to help researchers evaluating the soundness of the synthesis process. The algorithms introduced in the paper can be easily implemented, using the package Parsec, freely available in the R ecosystem.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2021–02–03
  60. By: Bettina Klaus; Claudio Meo
    Abstract: We propose a variant of the housing market model a la Shapley and Scarf (1974) that incorporates a limited form of externality in consumption; that is, agents care both about their own consumption (demand preferences) and about the agent who receives their endowment (supply preferences).We consider different domains of preference relations by taking demand and supply aspects of preferences into account. First, for markets with three agents who have (additive) separable preferences such that all houses and agents are acceptable, the strong core is nonempty; a result that can be neither extended to the unacceptable case nor to markets with a larger number of agents. Second, for markets where all agents have demand lexicographic preferences (or all of them have supply lexicographic preferences), we show that the strong core is nonempty, independent of the number of agents and the acceptability of houses or agents, and possibly multi-valued.
    Keywords: Externalities,housing markets, weak core, strong core
    JEL: C70 C71 C78 D62 D64
    Date: 2021–02
  61. By: David, Blight
    Abstract: This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐World War II global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐World War II migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, substitution effects can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
    Keywords: migration, trends, determinants, policy, visa, refugee
    JEL: J1 J11 J15 J18
    Date: 2020
  62. By: Opalo, Ken Ochieng' (Georgetown University); Habyarimana, James; Schipper, Youdi
    Abstract: A large literature documents the electoral benefits of clientelist and programmatic policies in low-income states. We extend this literature by showing the cyclical electoral responses to a large programmatic intervention to expand access to secondary education in Tanzania over multiple electoral periods. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that the incumbent party’s vote share increased by 2 percentage points in the election following the policy’s announcement as a campaign promise (2005), but decreased by -1.4 percentage points in the election following implementation (2010). We find no discernible electoral impact of the policy in 2015, two electoral cycles later. We attribute the electoral penalty in 2010 to how the secondary school expansion policy was implemented. Our findings shed light on the temporally-contingent electoral impacts of programmatic policies, and highlight the need for more research on how policy implementation structures public opinion and vote choice in low-income states.
    Date: 2021–02–16

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