nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒03‒01
39 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Racial and Socioeconomic Test-Score Gaps in New England Metropolitan Areas: State School Aid and Poverty Segregation By Katharine L. Bradbury
  2. The Roles of State Aid and Local Conditions in Elementary School Test-Score Gaps By Katharine L. Bradbury
  3. Consumption access and agglomeration: evidence from smartphone data By Yuhei Miyauchi; Kentaro Nakajima; Stephen J. Redding
  4. Agglomeration Effects on Job Matching Efficiency: Evidence from Japan By Yudai Higashi
  5. Revisiting the determinants of house prices in China’s megacities: cross-sectional heterogeneity, interdependencies and spillovers By Liu, Chunping; Ou, Zhirong
  6. What can schools and teachers do to boost students academically? By OECD
  7. Simple and Credible Value-Added Estimation Using Centralized School Assignment By Joshua D. Angrist; Peter Hull; Parag Pathak; Christopher Walters
  8. Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-SIR Model with Behavioral Responses By Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
  9. To Pool or Not to Pool? Understanding the Time and Price Tradeoffs of OnDemand Ride Users – Opportunities, Challenges, and Social Equity Considerations for Policies to Promote Shared-Ride Services By Shaheen, Susan PhD; Lazarus, Jessica; Caicedo, Juan; Bayen, Alexandre PhD
  10. Equity in new active travel infrastructure: a spatial analysis of London’s new Low Traffic Neighbourhoods By Aldred, Rachel; Verlinghieri, Ersilia; Sharkey, Megan; Itova, Irena; Goodman, Anna
  11. Commuting for crime By Thomas Kirchmaier; Monica Langella; Alan Manning
  12. PolicySpace2: modeling markets and endogenous housing policies By Bernardo Alves Furtado
  13. Spatial Economics for Granular Settings By Jonathan I. Dingel; Felix Tintelnot
  14. The Expediting Effect of Monitoring on Infrastructural Works. A Regression-Discontinuity Approach with Multiple Assignment Variables By Giuseppe Francesco Gori; Patrizia Lattarulo; Marco Mariani
  15. Mortgage regulation and financial vulnerability at the household level By Knut Are Aastveit; Ragnar Enger Juelsrud; Ella Getz Wold
  16. Examining the relationship between Tourism Seasonality and Tourism Carrying Capacity indexes for the Greek prefectures By Krabokoukis, Thomas; Polyzos, Serafeim
  17. Racing to Zipf's Law: Race and Metro Population Size 1910-2010 By Fernholz, Ricardo; Kramer, Rory
  18. COVID-19 and Guests' Preferences in Short-Term Rentals: Evidence from Madrid By Alberto Hidalgo; Massimo Riccaboni; Francisco J. Velazquez
  19. Does the quality of land records affect credit access of households in India? By Susan Thomas; Diya Uday
  20. Professionalisation of short-term rentals and emergent tourism gentrification in post-crisis Thessaloniki By Katsinas, Philipp
  21. Local entrepreneurship ecosystems and emerging industries: Case study of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, United Kingdom By OECD
  22. The Final straw: High school dropout for marginal students By Andresen, Martin Eckhoff; Løkken, Sturla Andreas
  23. The Effect of Teacher Characteristics on Students’ Science Achievement By Pietro Sancassani
  24. The Association of Opening K-12 Schools and Colleges with the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis By Victor Chernozhukov; Hiroyuki Kasahara; Paul Schrimpf
  25. Spatial Extension of Mixed Analysis of Variance Models By Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
  26. Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-war Czechoslovakia By Jakub Grossmann; Stepan Jurajda; Felix Roesel
  27. Mortgage Rates Decline and (Prime) Households Take Advantage By Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
  28. Honing in on Housing By Zoë Venter
  29. Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages By Meinen, Philipp; Serafini, Roberta; Papagalli, Ottavia
  30. Housing and housing assistance pathways with companion animals: risks, costs, benefits and opportunities By Huang, Donna; Stone, Wendy; Power, Emma; Tually, Selina; James, Amity; Faulkner, Debbie; Goodall, Zoë; Buckle, Caitlin
  31. Mixed services and mediated deservingness: access to housing for migrants in Greece By Glyniadaki, Katerina
  32. A Nonparametric Method for Estimating Teacher Value-Added By Michael Gilraine; Jiaying Gu; Robert McMillan
  33. Police Repression And Protest Behavior: Evidence From Student Protests In Chile By Prem, M; González, F
  34. Introduction to city planning: A historical perspective By Kauffman, Howel
  35. Artificial Intelligence, Teacher Tasks and Individualized Pedagogy By Ferman, Bruno; Lima, Lycia; Riva, Flávio
  36. Regional and Sectoral Structures and Their Dynamics of Chinese Economy: A Network Perspective from Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables By Tao Wang; Shiying Xiao; Jun Yan; Panpan Zhang
  37. School starting age, maternal age at birth, and child outcomes By Fredriksson, Peter; Huttunen, Kristiina; Öckert, Björn
  38. The Social Side of Early Human Capital Formation: Using a Field Experiment to Estimate the Causal Impact of Neighborhoods By John A. List; Fatemeh Momeni; Yves Zenou
  39. Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method For Causal Attribution By Peter Ganong; Pascal J. Noel

  1. By: Katharine L. Bradbury
    Abstract: Test-score data show that both low-income and racial-minority children score lower, on average, on states’ elementary-school accountability tests compared with higher-income children or white children. While different levels of scholastic achievement depend on a host of influences, such test-score gaps point toward unequal educational opportunity as a potentially important contributor. This report explores the relationship between racial and socioeconomic test-score gaps in New England metropolitan areas and two factors associated with unequal opportunity in education: state equalizing school-aid formulas and geographic segregation of low-income students. The underlying methods do not allow a strict causal interpretation; however, both aspects are strongly related to test-score gaps, with poverty segregation between school districts especially important in New England. The report first explores the degree to which state school aid is progressive, that is, distributed disproportionately to districts with high fractions of students living in poverty; more progressive distributions are associated with smaller test-score gaps in high-poverty metropolitan areas. All U.S. states distribute some state revenue to support local school districts, but the extent to which such aid is focused on districts with greater concentrations of poverty varies considerably. The relationships estimated in the empirical analysis suggest that New England metro areas with high average district poverty in states with more progressive aid distributions, such as Springfield, Massachusetts, should see somewhat smaller racial and socioeconomic test-score gaps than metro areas with lower district poverty in states with less progressive school aid, such as Burlington, Vermont; that predicted difference in white-Black test-score gaps amounts to about one-quarter of the actual difference between Springfield’s gap and Burlington’s gap. The second factor explored is poverty segregation; test-score gaps are larger in metropolitan areas where, compared with white children or higher-income children, minority children or low-income children go to school with, or are in school districts with, more students from low-income families. Partly because school districts (and cities and towns) are relatively small geographically in New England, poverty segregation in the region’s metropolitan areas is most pronounced between districts, not between schools within school districts. The sizes of the estimated relationships suggest that metro areas with the highest between-district poverty segregation, such as Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut, should have markedly larger test-score gaps than metro areas with moderate poverty segregation between districts, such as Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire; those predicted differences amount to 60 percent to 90 percent of the actual test-score gap differences between the Bridgeport and Manchester metro areas. States can alter either or both of these factors via policy changes. States set the terms—and thereby the progressivity—of school-aid policy. Many states include cost adjustments in their aid formulas to offset some of the additional costs of educating students from low-income families, and some recent proposals (such as for Connecticut) or policy changes (such as in Massachusetts) involve more closely targeting state equalizing aid to high-poverty districts. State policy levers regarding between-district poverty segregation are less direct and potentially more controversial. Nonetheless, statewide affordable housing policies, such as those in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, if applied more comprehensively, might reduce concentrations of poverty and provide more low-income families access to the higher-quality schools in low-poverty suburban districts.
    Keywords: racial segregation; socioeconomic segregation; state aid to public schools; student test-score gaps; inequality of opportunity; New England; NEPPC; education funding; segregation; low income
    Date: 2021–02–01
  2. By: Katharine L. Bradbury
    Abstract: Equal educational opportunity is a core American value. Yet many children of low-income or minority racial or ethnic status attend public schools that are lower quality compared with those that white children or high-income children attend. And data indicate that, on average, low-income or minority children score lower on states’ elementary-school accountability tests compared with higher-income children or white children. Such test-score gaps serve as evidence of unequal educational opportunity. This study uses information from metropolitan areas and from school districts to understand which factors are strongly related to the size of racial and socioeconomic test-score gaps. One key factor is the degree to which state aid to school districts is distributed progressively—that is, distributed disproportionately to districts with high fractions of students living in poverty—with progressive distributions associated with smaller test-score gaps in high-poverty metros or districts. Second, test-score gaps are larger in metropolitan areas and districts where poverty segregation is greater, that is, where, compared with white children or higher-income children, minority children or low-income children go to school with, or are in school districts with, more students from low-income families.
    Keywords: inequality of opportunity; student test-score gaps; state aid to public schools; socioeconomic segregaton; racial segregation
    JEL: H75 H77 I22 I24 I28
    Date: 2020–11–01
  3. By: Yuhei Miyauchi; Kentaro Nakajima; Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: We provide new theory and evidence on the role of consumption access in understanding the agglomeration of economic activity. We combine smartphone data that records user location every 5 minutes of the day with economic census data on the location of service-sector establishments to measure commuting and non-commuting trips within the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area. We show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. Using the structure of the model, we estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access, and show that consumption access makes a sizable contribution relative to workplace access in explaining the observed variation in residents and land prices across locations. Undertaking counterfactuals for changes in travel costs, we show that abstracting from consumption trips leads to a substantial underestimate of the welfare gains from a transport improvement (because of the undercounting of trips) and leads to a distorted picture of changes in travel patterns within the city (because of the different geography of commuting and non-commuting trips).
    Keywords: agglomeration, urbanization, transportation
    JEL: O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2021–02
  4. By: Yudai Higashi (Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Okayama University and Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of agglomeration on the regional efficiency of matching of job seekers and vacancies by using Japanese regional panel data. We find that a higher population density improves or at least does not deteriorate regional matching efficiency for most of the sample periods, suggesting that the benefit of agglomeration tends to be significant. However, the effect is significantly negative in 2011 when a serious earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan, suggesting that the congestion effect is superior to the benefit of agglomeration when labor markets suffer from damages, such as those caused by natural disasters.
    Keywords: Job search; Matching function; Agglomeration; Local labor market
    JEL: J64 R11
    Date: 2021–01
  5. By: Liu, Chunping (Nottingham Trent University); Ou, Zhirong (Cardiff Business School)
    Abstract: We revisit the determinants of house prices in Chinaís megacities. Previous work on similar topics fails to account for the widespread cross-sectional heterogeneity and interdependencies, despite the importance of them. Using a PVAR estimated by the Bayesian method allowing for these features, we Önd each city is rather unique, especially on the extent to which local house prices are disturbed by external house price shocks. The spillovers are mainly due to direct housing market interdependence, which seems related more to demand before 2010, but more to supply thereafter due to property purchase restrictions. The new evidence we establish therefore suggests that city-level stabilisation of house prices should fully respect local features, including how local markets respond to external disturbances.
    Keywords: House price; Chinese megacities; PVAR; cross-sectional heterogeneity and interdependencies
    JEL: C11 R15 R31
    Date: 2021–02
  6. By: OECD
    Abstract: With most students around the world having experienced remote learning over the past year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of teachers and schools has become all the more evident. Temporary school closures underline how richly students benefit from being in school with their teachers and classmates. Positive, High-achieving Students? What Schools and Teachers Can Do pinpoints some of the factors that make an effective teacher and school.
    Keywords: assessment, classrooms, performance, school leaders, schools, students, teachers, teaching
    Date: 2021–02–10
  7. By: Joshua D. Angrist (Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Department of Economics; NBER); Peter Hull (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER); Parag Pathak (Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Department of Economics); Christopher Walters (University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; NBER)
    Abstract: Many large urban school districts match students to schools using algorithms that incorporate an element of random assignment. We introduce two simple empirical strategies to harness this randomization for value-added models (VAMs) measuring the causal effects of individual schools. The first estimator controls for the probability of being offered admission to different schools, treating the take-up decision as independent of potential outcomes. Randomness in school assignments is used to test this key conditional independence assumption. The second estimator exploits randomness in offers to generate instrumental variables (IVs) for school enrollment. This procedure uses a low-dimensional model of school quality mediators to solve the under- identification challenge arising from the fact that some schools are under-subscribed. Both approaches relax the assumptions of conventional value-added models while obviating the need for elaborate nonlinear estimators. In applications to data from Denver and New York City, we find that models controlling for both assignment risk and lagged achievement yield highly reliable VAM estimates. Estimates from models with fewer controls and older lagged score controls are improved markedly by IV.
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
    Abstract: We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model concerning these variables do not hold when agents interact with neighbors in a (two dimensional) geographical space. Indeed, the spatial model's local interactions generate matching frictions and local herd immunity effects, which play a fundamental role in the infection dynamics. We also show that geographical factors affect how behavioral responses affect the epidemics. We derive relevant implications for estimating the effects of the epidemics and policy interventions that use panel data from several geographical units.
    Date: 2021–02
  9. By: Shaheen, Susan PhD; Lazarus, Jessica; Caicedo, Juan; Bayen, Alexandre PhD
    Abstract: On-demand mobility services including transportation network companies (also known as ridesourcing and ridehailing) like Lyft and Uber are changing the way that people travel by providing dynamic mobility that can supplement public transit and personal-vehicle use. However, TNC services have been found to contribute to increasing vehicle mileage, traffic congestion, and greenhouse gas emissions. Pooling rides ⎯ sharing a vehicle by multiple passengers to complete journeys of similar origin and destination ⎯ can increase the average vehicle occupancy of TNC trips and thus mitigate some of the negative impacts. Several mobility companies have launched app-based pooling services in recent years including app-based carpooling services (e.g., Waze Carpool, Scoop) that match drivers with riders; pooled on-demand ride services (e.g., Uber Pool and Lyft Shared rides) that match multiple TNC users; and microtransit services (e.g., Bridj, Chariot, Via) that offer on-demand, flexibly routed service, typically in larger vehicles such as vans or shuttles. However, information on the potential impacts of these options is so far limited. This research employs a general population stated preference survey of four California metropolitan regions (Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego, and the San Francisco Bay Area) in Fall 2018 to examine the opportunities and challenges for drastically expanding the market for pooling, accounting for differences in emergent travel behavior and preferences across the four metropolitan regions surveyed. The travel profiles, TNC use patterns, and attitudes and perceptions of TNCs and pooling are analyzed across key socio-demographic attributes to enrich behavioral understanding of marginalized and price sensitive users of on-demand ride services. This research further develops a discrete choice model to identify significant factors influencing a TNC user’s choice to pool or not to pool, as well as estimating a traveler’s value of time (VOT) across different portions of a TNC trip. This research provides key insights and social equity considerations for policies that could be employed to reduce vehicle miles traveled and emissions from passenger road transportation by incentivizing the use of pooled on-demand ride services and public transit
    Keywords: Engineering, Demand responsive transportation, ridesourcing, shared mobility, stated preference, surveys, travel behavior, choice models
    Date: 2021–02–01
  10. By: Aldred, Rachel; Verlinghieri, Ersilia; Sharkey, Megan; Itova, Irena; Goodman, Anna
    Abstract: In this article we examine equity in new active travel infrastructure in London, UK. We focus on Low Traffic Neighbourhood schemes (LTNs) introduced during Covid-19. These mainly involve ‘modal filters’ that restrict through motor traffic from residential streets. Such approaches to traffic management are traditional in the Netherlands, but relatively new in London and other global cities such as Barcelona. LTNs are often controversial, with one criticism being that they are implemented in affluent areas and hence benefit richer residents. London represents an excellent opportunity to investigate the extent to which these rapidly introduced schemes have so far been equitably distributed. We focused on LTNs introduced between March and September 2020 and still present at the end of October 2020. Having generated datasets representing these new LTN locations and their boundary roads, we matched these to Output Areas (OAs, administrative areas containing around 300 residents). We then examined the extent to which LTN implementation was associated with age, ethnicity, disability, employment and car ownership (Census 2011) and small-area deprivation (Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019). We estimated that 3.7% of all Londoners live inside a new LTN, and 8.8% live within 500m walking distance of a new modal filter. Across London as a whole, people in the most deprived quarter of OAs were 2.7 times more likely to live in or near a new LTN, compared to Londoners in the least deprived quarter. While overall Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people were slightly more likely than White Londoners to live in a new LTN, this varied by ethnic group. Specifically, Black Londoners were somewhat more likely, and Asian Londoners somewhat less likely than White people to live in or near a new LTN. Car-free households were more likely to live in or near a new LTN. Within London’s districts – which lead the implementation of LTNs - there was wide variation, with people in more deprived areas and/or ethnic minorities more likely to live in an LTN in some districts, less likely in others. In the median (‘typical’) district, people in more deprived areas were more likely to live in an LTN than people in less deprived areas, suggesting that, on average, individual districts have prioritised their more deprived areas. However, in the median district, BAME residents were slightly less likely to live in an LTN than White residents. Finally, at the micro level, residents living in LTNs were demographically similar to neighbours living in OAs that touched an LTN boundary road. We conclude that LTN implementation has been broadly equitable at the city level and at the micro level, but not always at the district level. Such metrics should be used in policy and research to monitor and improve the equity of active travel interventions.
    Date: 2021–02–26
  11. By: Thomas Kirchmaier; Monica Langella; Alan Manning
    Abstract: People care about crime, with the spatial distribution of both actual and perceived crime affecting the amenities from living in different areas and residential decisions. The literature finds that crime tends to happen close to the offender's residence but does not clearly establish whether this is because the location of likely offenders and crime opportunities are close to each other or whether there is a high commuting cost for criminals. We use a rich administrative dataset from one of the biggest UK police forces to disentangle these two hypotheses, providing an estimate of the cost of distance and how local socio-economic characteristics affect both crimes that are committed and the offenders' location. We find that the cost of distance is very high and has a great deterrence effect. We also propose a procedure for controlling for the selection bias induced by the fact that offenders' location is only known when they are caught.
    Keywords: crime, commuting
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2021–02
  12. By: Bernardo Alves Furtado
    Abstract: Policymakers decide on alternative policies facing restricted budgets and uncertain, ever-changing future. Designing housing policies is further difficult giving the heterogeneous characteristics of properties themselves and the intricacy of housing markets and the spatial context of cities. We propose PolicySpace2 (PS2) as an adapted and extended version of the open source PolicySpace agent-based model. PS2 is a computer simulation that relies on empirically detailed spatial data to model real estate, along with labor, credit and goods and services markets. Interaction among workers, firms, a bank, households and municipalities follow the literature benchmarks to integrate economic, spatial and transport literature. PS2 is applied to a comparison among three competing municipal housing policies aimed at alleviating poverty: (a) property acquisition and distribution, (b) rental vouchers and (c) monetary aid. Within the model context, the monetary aid, that is, a smaller amounts of help for a larger number of households, makes the economy perform better in terms of production, consumption, reduction of inequality and maintenance of financial duties. PS2 as such is also a framework that may be further adapted to a number of related research questions.
    Date: 2021–02
  13. By: Jonathan I. Dingel (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; NBER; CEPR); Felix Tintelnot (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER; CEPR)
    Abstract: We introduce a general-equilibrium model of a “granular†spatial economy populated by a finite number of people. Our quantitative model is designed for application to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study economic outcomes for regions, cities, and neighborhoods. Conventional approaches invoking the law of large numbers are ill-suited for such empirical settings. We evaluate quantitative spatial models’ out-of-sample predictions using event studies of large office openings in New York City. Our granular framework improves upon the conventional continuum-of-individuals model, which perfectly fits the pre-event data but produces predictions uncorrelated with the observed changes in commuting flows.
    Keywords: Commuting, granularity, gravity equation, quantitative spatial economics
    JEL: C25 F16 R1 R13 R23
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Giuseppe Francesco Gori; Patrizia Lattarulo; Marco Mariani
    Abstract: Decentralised government levels are often entrusted with the management of public works and required to ensure well-timed infrastructure delivery to their communities. We investigate whether monitoring the activity of local procuring authorities during the execution phase of the works they manage may expedite the infrastructure delivery process. Focussing on an Italian regional law which imposes monitoring by the regional government on "strategic" works carried out by local buyers, we draw causal claims using a regression-discontinuity approach, made unusual by the presence of multiple assignment variables. Estimation is performed through discrete-time survival analysis techniques. Results show that monitoring does expedite infrastructure delivery.
    Date: 2021–02
  15. By: Knut Are Aastveit; Ragnar Enger Juelsrud; Ella Getz Wold
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on credit volumes, household balance sheets and the reaction to adverse economic shocks. Using a comprehensive dataset of all housing transactions in Norway matched with buyers' balance sheet information from official tax records, we identify causal effects of mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limits. Our results show that LTV-requirements have substantial effects on credit volumes, especially on the extensive margin. As a result, such requirements contribute to dampening aggregate credit growth. We find that affected households lower their debt uptake and face lower interest expenses, thereby reducing their vulnerability to adverse shocks. However, affected households also deplete liquid assets when purchasing a home, in order to meet the new requirement. This negative effect on liquid savings persists in the years following the house purchase, suggesting that the impact on financial vulnerability at the household level is in fact ambiguous. We illustrate this further by documenting that households affected by the regulation are more likely to sell their home when becoming unemployed compared to non-affected households.
    Keywords: household leverage, financial regulation, macroprudential policy, mortgage markets
    JEL: E21 E58 G21 G28 G51
    Date: 2020–06
  16. By: Krabokoukis, Thomas; Polyzos, Serafeim
    Abstract: Tourism seasonality and tourism carrying capacity are major issues in the study of the tourism phenomenon. Destinations with high values in related indexes are faced with tourism saturation and sustainability. Within this context, this paper examines the relationship between tourism seasonality and tourism carrying capacity of the Greek prefectures, on data referring for the year 2018. The analysis measures tourism seasonality based on the Relative Seasonal Index (RSI), while for measurement of tourism carrying capacity (TCC) used an index consisting of fourteen sub-indices. The two variables are examined by using statistical techniques to classify the Greek prefectures by their performance. In further analysis, is applying a simple linear regression and outlier cases identified. The overall approach proposes a useful quantitative tool for tourism management and regional development because it allows considering in common the temporal and spatial dimensions of the tourism seasonality phenomenon.
    Keywords: tourism seasonality; tourism carrying capacity; regional development; spatial distribution; classification
    JEL: L8 Q5
    Date: 2020–11
  17. By: Fernholz, Ricardo; Kramer, Rory
    Abstract: Residential segregation scholarship traditionally focuses on segregation within metro- politan areas. Concurrently, urban economists have identi?ed that cities and metro areas within a coherent, connected system of cities have population distributions that follow a power law. Further, subpopulations with equal mobility should also have pop- ulation distributions that follow a power law. Using this insight, we introduce a novel method for identifying whether or not racial segregation between metro areas is due to geographical patterns of immigration into coherent systems or due to constrained mobility. We demonstrate the potential of this method by measuring the coherence of the U.S. urban system from 1910-2010 for the white, Black, Asian, and Hispanic populations. Black residents were only distributed across cities in a coherent system after the Great Migration, while Asian and Hispanic residents reached coherence more quickly and stayed coherent more consistently. It appears the Black reverse migration to the south has unsettled their power law distribution. We also ?nd that the size of those networks di?er across populations, and these di?erences are not an artifact of the relative size of the di?erent populations. We conclude with more potential applications of the methodology.
    Date: 2021–02–19
  18. By: Alberto Hidalgo (IMT School for advanced studies); Massimo Riccaboni (IMT School for advanced studies); Francisco J. Velazquez (Complutense University of Madrid)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how guests' preferences in peer-to-peer accommodations changed during the COVID-19 summer season. To this end, we adopt a semi- parametric hedonic pricing model and test the importance of attributes that better allow for social distancing. We take the city of Madrid as a compelling case study of an important tourist destination severely hit by the crisis. We show that guests' marginal willingness to pay for social distancing characteristics has changed from August 2019 to August 2020. In particular, we find that whereas those listings that have kitchen amenities have a premium price of around 20.4% in August 2020, which represents a 15.2 percentage point increase with respect to the previous year, the marginal willingness to pay for size-related character- istics decreased in 2.7 percentage points. Results are robust to sample and time composition.
    Keywords: Hedonic modelling, Peer-to-peer accommodation, COVID-19 pandemic, Generalized Additive Models
    JEL: C21 L83 R30
    Date: 2021–02
  19. By: Susan Thomas (xKDR); Diya Uday (xKDR)
    Abstract: Under-utilisation of land as collateral for loans is often attributed to the poor quality of the land records infrastructure, which is seen to both increase the cost of closing credit transactions and the risk in collection if a loan fails. In this paper, we examine the link between the heterogeneity of the quality of the land records infrastructure across states and the access to credit by households in these states using two new data-sets for the analysis. The state-level variation in land record quality is measured using the NCAER Land Records Services Index score while the Consumer Pyramids household data is used to capture household borrowing. Our findings are that there is a weak link between the borrowing patterns of households and quality of land records infrastructure, particularly the availability of spatial records. However, it does not appear that this is sufficient to capture the extent to which households are able to access credit from formal financial sources.
    JEL: E2 G2 R1 R5 O4
    Date: 2021–02
  20. By: Katsinas, Philipp
    Abstract: This paper contributes to research on short-term rentals (STRs), their suppliers and their impact on housing and the local community, focusing on Thessaloniki, a recessionary city off the tourist map until recently. Through the conduction of in-depth interviews with hosts and other key informants, and the analysis of quantitative data on Airbnb listings, I argue that: (1) far from enabling a sharing economy, Airbnb facilitates (re)investment in housing by different types of hosts. But investors outcompete amateur hosts and contribute to the professionalisation of STRs and the concentration of revenues. (2) the extraction of higher rents through STRs leads to the displacement of tenants and to gentrification in cities previously considered as ungentrifiable, driven by increased tourism and the short-term character of these rentals. However, the type and scale of investors involved, and the impact of gentrification are conditioned by contextual differences and the position of cities in the international competition to attract tourists.
    Keywords: Airbnb; gentrification; housing; Thessaloniki; tourism
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–01–20
  21. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper examines how local-level policies can strengthen entrepreneurship and innovation in the region of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough in the United Kingdom. It investigates the quality of the local entrepreneurship ecosystem for generating innovative start-ups and scale-ups and the regional conditions for generating positive industry transitions by supporting the strategic sectors of life sciences, information technologies, agri-tech and advanced manufacturing. Key areas of focus are on skills development, entrepreneurship development and knowledge exchange for local economic development. A number of policy recommendations are offered based on the analysis together with international inspiring policy practice examples.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, industry transition, knowledge exchange, regional policy, skills
    JEL: J24 L52 L53 R58
    Date: 2021–02–02
  22. By: Andresen, Martin Eckhoff; Løkken, Sturla Andreas
    Abstract: We investigate the consequences of failing a high-stakes exam in Norwegian high schools. Second-year high school students are randomly assigned to either a locally graded oral exam or a centrally graded written exam. Students assigned to written exams consistently receive lower grades and have a greater probability of failing, particularly in the case of already low-performing students. Because passing the exam is required to obtain a high school diploma, this translates into a reduction in high school graduation rates that remains significant over time, permanently shifting a group of marginal students into dropping out of high school altogether. We show that these marginal students are severely disadvantaged across several dimensions, even more so than dropouts in general. Our analysis of what predicts dropout among these marginal students suggests that effective policies for combating high school dropout should target students exclusively on the basis of poor academic performance, rather than other measures of disadvantage such as socioeconomic status, even though these characteristics are associated with dropout among students in general.
    Keywords: Exam type, high school dropout, school performance
    JEL: I21 I26 J24
    Date: 2020–12–19
  23. By: Pietro Sancassani
    Abstract: Using data from TIMSS 2015, an international large-scale assessment of student skills, I investigate the effect of teacher characteristics on students’ science achievement. My identification strategy exploits the feature that in many education systems different science domains (physics, biology, chemistry, and earth science) are taught by different teachers. The availability of students’ test scores as well as teachers’ questionnaires for each of these domains allows me to implement a withinstudent approach which controls for unobserved student heterogeneity. I find a positive and significant effect of teacher specialization in the specific science domain on students’ results, equivalent to 1.7% of a standard deviation. Holding a Master’s degree, pedagogical preparation and teaching experience have no significant effect. Teachers’ experience has a negative impact on the extent to which students like to study a subject or find teaching engaging.
    Keywords: Teachers, student achievement, teacher characteristics, education production function, TIMSS
    JEL: I21 I29 C21 J24
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Victor Chernozhukov; Hiroyuki Kasahara; Paul Schrimpf
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines how the opening of K-12 schools and colleges is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. Using data on foot traffic and K-12 school opening plans, we analyze how an increase in visits to schools and opening schools with different teaching methods (in-person, hybrid, and remote) is related to the 2-weeks forward growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our debiased panel data regression analysis with a set of county dummies, interactions of state and week dummies, and other controls shows that an increase in visits to both K-12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K-12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the positive association of K-12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These results have a causal interpretation in a structural model with unobserved county and time confounders. Sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to timing assumptions and alternative specifications.
    Date: 2021–02
  25. By: Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
    Abstract: This paper proposes a spatial extension of mixed analysis of variance models for spatial multilevel data in which individual belongs to one of spatial regions, which are called spatial error models for multilevel data (SEMM). We have introduced empirical bayes estimation methods in two steps because SEMM models which are defined by two level equations, individual and regional levels, can be regarded as a Bayesian hierarchal model. The first step estimator based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation methods specifies the hyper parameters and has been justified in asymptotic situations, and posterior distributions for the parameters are evaluated with the hyperparameters estimated in the first step. The proposed models are applied to happiness survey data in Japan to demonstrate empirical properties.
    Date: 2021–02
  26. By: Jakub Grossmann; Stepan Jurajda; Felix Roesel
    Abstract: Forced migration traumatizes millions displaced from their homes, but little is known about the few who manage to stay and become a minority in a new society. We study the case of German stayers in Sudetenland, a region from which Czechoslovakia expelled ethnic Germans after World War Two. The unexpected presence of the US Army in parts of 1945 Czechoslovakia resulted in more anti-fascist Germans avoiding displacement compared to regions liberated by the Red Army. We study the long-run impacts of this local variation in the presence of left-leaning stayers and find that Communist party support and local party cell frequencies, as well as far-left values and social policies are more pronounced today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among anti-fascist stayers. The German staying minority shaped the political identity of newly formed local societies after ethnic cleansing by providing the ‘small seed’ of political development.
    Keywords: forced migration; displacement; ethnic cleansing; stayers; minorities; identity; Communist party; Czechoslovakia; Sudetenland;
    JEL: J15 F22 D72 D74 N34
    Date: 2021–01
  27. By: Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
    Abstract: Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that household debt balances increased by $206 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, marking a $414 billion increase since the end of 2019. But the COVID pandemic and ensuing recession have marked an end to the dynamics in household borrowing that have characterized the expansion since the Great Recession, which included robust growth in auto and student loans, while mortgage and credit card balances grew more slowly. As the pandemic took hold, these dynamics were altered. One shift in 2020 was a larger bump up in mortgage balances. Mortgage balances grew by $182 billion, the biggest quarterly uptick since 2007, boosted by historically high volumes of originations. Here, we take a close look at the composition of mortgage originations, which neared $1.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020, the highest single-quarter volume seen since our series begins in 2000. The Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit and this analysis are based on the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, which is itself based on anonymized Equifax credit data.
    Keywords: mortgages; housing; CCP; household finance; Consumer Credit Panel
    JEL: R31 D14
    Date: 2021–02–17
  28. By: Zoë Venter
    Abstract: Using a six variable SVAR model, we study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the housing market over the period between 1996:Q1 and 2019:Q4. The SVAR is repeated for two measures of fiscal policy namely, tax revenue and government spending as well as for three measures of the housing market namely, residential prices, the price-to-rent ratio and the price-to-income ratio. Our main results show that monetary policy shocks do not have an impact on residential prices however, when running our model using fiscal policy shocks instead of monetary policy shocks, the results become statistically significant. Further, our results show that the response of housing prices to fiscal policy shocks differs between Portugal and Spain. We conclude that the difference in the housing markets in these two countries can be attributed to the variation in the fiscal policy mandates adopted while the common monetary policy framework implemented by the ECB does not play a role.
    Keywords: E44; E52; R21
    Date: 2021–02
  29. By: Meinen, Philipp; Serafini, Roberta; Papagalli, Ottavia
    Abstract: The paper provides an ex-post analysis of the determinants of within-country regional heterogeneity of the labour market impact of COVID-19. By focussing on the first wave of the pandemic in the four largest euro area economies, it finds that the propagation of the economic impact across regions cannot be explained by the spread of infections only. Instead, a region’s economic structure is a significant driver of the observed heterogeneity. Moreover, our results suggest that a region's trade relations, both within and across countries, represent a relevant indirect channel through which COVID-19 related disruptions affect regional economic activity. In this regard, the analysis depicts vulnerabilities arising from potential disruptions of the highly integrated EU supply chains. JEL Classification: R11, F14, J40, R15
    Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, input-output linkages, regional differences, sectoral exposure, short-time work
    Date: 2021–02
  30. By: Huang, Donna; Stone, Wendy; Power, Emma; Tually, Selina; James, Amity; Faulkner, Debbie; Goodall, Zoë; Buckle, Caitlin
    Abstract: This study investigated the policy and regulatory settings that shape housing options available to households that own companion animals. It considers housing and housing assistance contexts nationally across tenures, sectors (e.g. ownership, private rental housing), emergency/crisis accommodation and for diverse population groups receiving income and housing assistance support.
    Date: 2021–02–18
  31. By: Glyniadaki, Katerina
    Abstract: As the delivery of social services is increasingly carried out by contractors, it is no longer state officials alone who determine clients' 'deservingness'. This article draws attention to the interrelated notions of mixed services and mediated deservingness as they apply in the context of migrants' access to housing in Athens, Greece, during the so-called 'migration crisis' of 2015-2017. It argues that non-state actors essentially act as intermediaries between the state and the migrant clients, making their own judgements on the migrants' deservingness and using their discretionary power accordingly. The findings reveal distinct discretionary patterns among street-level actors who represent migrants, depending on how each interprets the notion of 'vulnerability' with regard to gender and age. Although these actors' room for manoeuvre is framed by the policy framework and the structural conditions in which they operate, their individual normative assumptions play a critical role in shaping their discretionary behaviour towards migrants.
    Keywords: deservingness; housing; street-level bureaucracy; migrants
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–01–25
  32. By: Michael Gilraine; Jiaying Gu; Robert McMillan
    Abstract: This paper proposes a computationally feasible nonparametric methodology for estimating teacher value-added. Our estimator, drawing on Robbins (1956), permits the unobserved teacher value-added distribution to be estimated directly, rather than assuming normality as is standard. Simulations indicate the estimator performs very well regardless of the true distribution, even in moderately-sized samples. Implementing our method in practice using two large-scale administrative datasets, the estimated teacher value-added distributions depart from normality and differ from each other. Further, compared with widely-used parametric estimates, we show our nonparametric estimates can make a significant difference to teacher-related policy calculations, in both short and longer terms.
    Keywords: Teacher Value-Added, Nonparametric Empirical Bayes, Education Policy, Teacher Release Policy
    JEL: C11 H75 I21 J24
    Date: 2021–02–13
  33. By: Prem, M; González, F
    Abstract: Police repression is a common feature of street protests around the world but evidence about its impact on dissident behavior is limited. We provide an empirical analysis of people linked to a student killed by a stray bullet coming from a policeman during a large protest. Using administrative data on daily school attendance, we follow his schoolmates and those living nearby the shooting in hundreds of protest and non-protest days to estimate whether police repression affected their protest behavior. We find that repression causes a temporary deterrence effect but only on students with social (rather than geographic) links to the victim. Moreover, we show that police violence increased adherence to a student-led boycott two years after the shooting and had negative educational consequences for students. These findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of police repression in quieting dissent and ensuring public safety.
    Keywords: Police repression, state repression, protest, students
    JEL: H75
    Date: 2021–01–25
  34. By: Kauffman, Howel
    Abstract: This study is an introduction to the world's history of urban planning from its beginnings in the mid-19th Century until today. The work looks at significant planning historical issues. Why did town design go the way it did? How did it work and how did it change the goals? What was the prosperity of preparation, and who were its leaders? What were the core concepts and their relation to thought and social progress in the planning process? This essay gives a summary of the vast literature of urban planning and history by addressing certain queries. This work is divided into three phases of history: an initial era of separate but increasingly converging principles of a designated city; a second phase of national organisation, innovation and development; and a third period in which the planning concepts were applied at almost all levels and areas of urban policy. The roots of modern planning are discovered in community care campaigns, civil sculpture, and embellishment, classically resurrected urban architecture, and neighborhood settlements, and the reform of housing. A second portion deals with institutionalizing the profession, the advancement of zoning and comprehensive planning, significant time statistics and the New Deal initiative for new cities.
    Date: 2021–02–07
  35. By: Ferman, Bruno; Lima, Lycia; Riva, Flávio
    Abstract: This paper investigates how educational technologies that use different combinations of artificial and human intelligence are incorporated into classroom instruction, and how they ultimately affect learning. We conducted a field experiment to study two technologies that allow teachers to outsource grading and feedback tasks on writing practices of high school seniors. The first technology is a fully automated evaluation system that provides instantaneous scores and feedback. The second one uses human graders as an additional resource to enhance grading and feedback quality in aspects in which the automated system arguably falls short. Both technologies significantly improved students' essay scores in a large college admission exam, and the addition of human graders did not improve effectiveness in spite of increasing perceived feedback quality. Both technologies also similarly helped teachers engage more frequently on personal discussions on essay quality with their students. Taken together, these results indicate that teachers' task composition shifted toward nonroutine activities and this helped circumvent some of the limitations of artificial intelligence. More generally, our results illustrate how the most recent wave of technological change may relocate labor to analytical and interactive tasks that still remain a challenge to automation.
    Date: 2021–02–17
  36. By: Tao Wang; Shiying Xiao; Jun Yan; Panpan Zhang
    Abstract: A multi-regional input-output table (MRIOT) containing the transactions among the region-sectors in an economy defines a weighted and directed network. Using network analysis tools, we analyze the regional and sectoral structure of the Chinese economy and their temporal dynamics from 2007 to 2012 via the MRIOTs of China. Global analyses are done with network topology measures. Growth-driving province-sector clusters are identified with community detection methods. Influential province-sectors are ranked by weighted PageRank scores. The results revealed a few interesting and telling insights. The level of inter-province-sector activities increased with the rapid growth of the national economy, but not as fast as that of intra-province economic activities. Regional community structures were deeply associated with geographical factors. The community heterogeneity across the regions was high and the regional fragmentation increased during the study period. Quantified metrics assessing the relative importance of the province-sectors in the national economy echo the national and regional economic development policies to a certain extent.
    Date: 2021–02
  37. By: Fredriksson, Peter; Huttunen, Kristiina; Öckert, Björn
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of maternal school starting age and maternal age-at-birth on children’s short and long-term outcomes using Finnish register data. We exploit a school-starting-age rule for identification. Mothers who are born after the school entry cut-off give birth at higher age, but total fertility and earnings are unaffected. Being born after the cut-off reduces gestation and, hence, child birth weight. The effects on birth weight and gestation are rather small, however, suggesting that the long-run impacts are limited. Accordingly, we find no impacts on longer-term child outcomes, such as educational attainment and adolescent crime rates. Overall, we interpret this evidence as saying that there are no favorable effects of maternal age at birth on child outcomes.
    Keywords: school starting age, fertility, maternal age, birth outcomes, education, crime, Local public finance and provision of public services,
    Date: 2021
  38. By: John A. List (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER); Fatemeh Momeni (University of Chicago - Crime and Education Labs); Yves Zenou (Monash University - Department of Economics)
    Abstract: The behavioral revolution within economics has been largely driven by psychological insights, with the sister sciences playing a lesser role. This study leverages insights from sociology to explore the role of neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age. We do so by estimating the spillover effects from a large-scale early childhood intervention on the educational attainment of over 2,000 disadvantaged children in the United States. We document large spillover effects on both treatment and control children who live near treated children. Interestingly, the spillover effects are localized, decreasing with the spatial distance to treated neighbors. Perhaps our most novel insight is the underlying mechanisms at work: the spillover effect on non-cognitive scores operate through the child's social network while parental investment is an important channel through which cognitive spillover effects operate. Overall, our results reveal the importance of public programs and neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age, highlighting that human capital accumulation is fundamentally a social activity.
    JEL: C93 I21 I24 I26 I28 R1
    Date: 2020
  39. By: Peter Ganong (University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy); Pascal J. Noel (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)
    Abstract: There are two prevailing theories of borrower default: strategic default—when debt is too high relative to the value of the house—and adverse life events—such that the monthly payment is too high relative to available resources. It has been challenging to test between these theories in part because adverse events are measured with error, possibly leading to attenuation bias. We develop a new method for addressing this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic default motive: borrowers with positive home equity. We implement the method using high-frequency administrative data linking income and mortgage default. Our central finding is that only 3 percent of defaults are caused exclusively by negative equity, much less than previously thought; in other words, adverse events are a necessary condition for 97 percent of mortgage defaults. Although this finding contrasts sharply with predictions from standard models, we show that it can be rationalized in models with a high private cost of mortgage default.
    JEL: E20 G21 R21
    Date: 2020

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