nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒02‒22
43 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes By Vicki Been; Ingrid Ellen; David Figlio; Ashlyn Aiko Nelson; Stephen L. Ross; Amy Ellen Schwartz; Leanna Stiefel
  2. Quality of Life in Chinese Cities By Shi, Tie; Zhu, Wenzhang; Fu, Shihe
  3. Congestion in highways when tolls and railroads matter: evidence from European cities By Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López; Ilias Pasidis; Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal
  4. Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods By ; Randal Verbrugge
  5. Altruism or Money? Reducing Teacher Sorting Using Behavioral Strategies in Peru By Ajzenman, Nicolas; Bertoni, Eleonora; Elacqua, Gregory; Marotta, Luana; Méndez Vargas, Carolina
  6. Tracking Owners’ Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics By Anthony Lepinteur; Sofie R. Waltl
  7. From the Top Down: The Governance of Urban Development in Mexico By Alejandra Reyes
  8. "Paraísos fiscales", wealth taxation, and mobility By David R. Agrawal; Dirk Foremny; Clara Martínez-Toledano
  9. Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis By Ryan R. Brady
  10. Integrating Floor Plans into Hedonic Models for Rent Price Appraisal By Kirill Solovev; Nicolas Pr\"ollochs
  11. Socio-economic indicators correlate with daily mobility during the second-wave of the Covid-19 pandemic By Long, Jed; Ren, Chang
  12. Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts By Andrew B. Martinez; Jennifer L. Castle; David F. Hendry
  13. Explaining the Rural-Urban Student Performance Gap for Different Distribution Quantiles in Colombia By Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo; Rodríguez Gómez, Wilson; Rodríguez Gómez, Efrén
  14. Politically connected cities: Italy 1951-1991 By Guglielmo Barone; Guido de Blasio; Elena Gentili
  15. The Importance of Examining Cross-Cultural Issues Experienced by Foreign Science Teachers in U.S. Science Classrooms By Samantha L. Strachan
  16. Theme and Variations: Metropolitan Governance in Canada By Zack Taylor
  17. Central Exams and Adult Skills: Evidence from PIAAC By Leschnig, Lisa; Schwerdt, Guido; Zigova, Katarina
  18. The COVID-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts on the Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt and What We Should Do By Hershbein, Brad J.; Holzer, Harry J.
  19. Limited liability, strategic default and bargaining power By Balatti, Mirco; López-Quiles, Carolina
  20. The Fed, housing and household debt over time By Giacomo Rella
  21. COVID-19, Race, and Redlining By Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
  22. Identifying and Producing Effective Teachers By Gershenson, Seth
  24. Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family By Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
  25. On-Demand Transit User Preference Analysis using Hybrid Choice Models By Nael Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq; Yixue Zhang; Steven Farber
  26. Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning By Mehmet Balcilar; David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch
  27. Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response By Mohammad Akbarpour; Cody Cook; Aude Marzuoli; Simon Mongey; Abhishek Nagaraj; Matteo Saccarola; Pietro Tebaldi; Shoshana Vasserman; Hanbin Yang
  28. To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington By Dan Goldhaber; Scott A. Imberman; Katharine O. Strunk; Bryant Hopkins; Nate Brown; Erica Harbatkin; Tara Kilbride
  29. Do high-quality local institutions shape labour productivity in Western European manufacturing firms? By Ganau, Roberto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  30. Conditional cash transfers and the learning crisis: evidence from Tayssir scale-up in Morocco By Jules Gazeaud; Claire Ricard
  31. Coronavirus pandemic, remote learning and education inequalities By Marina Murat; Luca Bonacini
  32. The Impact of Grade Retention on Juvenile Crime By Juan Diaz; Nicolas Grau; Tatiana Reyes; Jorge Rivera
  33. Unequal mortality during the Spanish Flu By Roses, Joan R.; Domenech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
  34. Apart but Connected: Online Tutoring and Student Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana
  35. "Mom, Dad: I’m staying”. Initial labor market conditions, housing markets, and welfare By Rodrigo Martínez-Mazza
  36. Evaluating Contradictory Experimental and Non-Experimental Estimates of Neighborhood Effects on Economic Outcomes for Adults By David J. Harding; Lisa Sanbonmatsu; Greg J. Duncan; Lisa A. Gennetian; Lawrence F. Katz; Ronald C. Kessler; Jeffrey R. Kling; Matthew Sciandra; Jens Ludwig
  37. Chapter IV Do Commuting Women Have Fewer Children? By Kotyrlo, Elena
  38. Cities in National Constitutions: Northern Stagnation, Southern Innovation By Ran Hirschl
  39. A Playbook for Voluntary Regional Governance in Greater Toronto By André Côté; Gabriel Eidelman; Michael Fenn
  40. Persecution and Escape: Professional Networks and High-Skilled Emigration from Nazi Germany By Becker, Sascha O.; Lindenthal, Volker; Mukand, Sharun; Waldinger, Fabian
  41. Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting? By Neugart, Michael; Rode, Johannes
  42. Impacts of Natural Disasters on Households and Small Businesses in India By Patankar, Archana
  43. Use of Big Data in Transport Modelling By Luis Willumsen

  1. By: Vicki Been (New York University); Ingrid Ellen (New York University); David Figlio (Northwestern University); Ashlyn Aiko Nelson (Indiana University); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut); Amy Ellen Schwartz (Syracuse University); Leanna Stiefel (New York University)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities.
    Keywords: housing wealth, mortgage, racial disparities, foreclosure
    JEL: I24 O18 J15 R23
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Shi, Tie; Zhu, Wenzhang; Fu, Shihe
    Abstract: The Rosen-Roback spatial equilibrium theory states that cross-city variations in wages and housing prices reflect urban residents’ willingness to pay for urban amenities or quality of life. This paper is the first to quantify and rank the quality of life in Chinese cities based on the Rosen-Roback model. Using the 2005 1% Population Intercensus Survey data, we estimate the wage and housing hedonic models. The coefficients of urban amenity variables in both hedonic models are considered the implicit prices of amenities and are used as the weights to compute the quality of life for each prefecture city in China. In general, provincial capital cities and cities with nice weather, convenient transportation, and better public services have a higher quality of life. We also find that urban quality of life is positively associated with the subjective well-being of urban residents.
    Keywords: Spatial equilibrium, hedonic model, urban amenity, quality of life, life satisfaction
    JEL: H44 J31 J61 R13 R23 R31
    Date: 2021–01–12
  3. By: Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona & IEB); Ilias Pasidis (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)
    Abstract: Using data from the 545 largest European cities, we study whether the expansion of their highway capacity provides a solution to the problem of traffic congestion. Our results confirm that in the long run, and in line with the ’fundamental law of highway congestion’, the expansion in cities of lane kilometers causes an increase in vehicle traffic that does not solve urban congestion. We disentangle the increase in traffic due to the increases in coverage and in capacity. We further introduce road pricing and public transit policies in order to test whether they moderate congestion. Our findings confirm that the induced demand is considerably smaller in cities with road pricing schemes, and that congestion decreases with the expansion of public transportation.
    Keywords: Congestion, highways, Europe, cities
    JEL: R41 R48
    Date: 2020
  4. By: ; Randal Verbrugge
    Abstract: Housing rents are a large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Rent inflation rates for different types of housing units sometimes diverge, even in the same neighborhoods. We estimate during 2013 to 2016 apartment rents outpaced rents for detached housing in the United States by 0.76 percentage points annually after controlling for location effects. These rent dynamics imply a segmented housing market. They also suggest rent indexes need to be based on data structurally representative of their measurement objective. In particular, indexes based on professionally managed apartment complexes mismeasure the rents for housing generally. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the Consumer Price Index’s Owners’ Equivalent Rent component, may be biased by using an unrepresentative mix of apartments and houses.
    Keywords: rental housing; price measurement; owners’ equivalent rent
    JEL: E30 R21 R31
    Date: 2020–02–09
  5. By: Ajzenman, Nicolas (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV); Bertoni, Eleonora (Inter-American Development Bank); Elacqua, Gregory (Inter-American Development Bank); Marotta, Luana (Inter-American Development Bank); Méndez Vargas, Carolina (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Inequality in access to high-quality teachers is an important driver of student socioeconomic achievement gaps. We experimentally evaluate a novel nation-wide low-cost government program aimed at reducing teacher sorting. Specifically, we tested two behavioral strategies designed to motivate teachers to apply to job vacancies in disadvantaged schools. These strategies consisted of an "Altruistic Identity" treatment arm, which primed teachers' altruistic identity by making it more salient, and an "Extrinsic Incentives" arm, which simplified the information and increased the salience of an existing government monetary-incentive scheme rewarding teachers who work in underprivileged institutions. We show that both strategies are successful in triggering teacher candidates to apply to such vacancies, as well as make them more likely to be assigned to a final in-person evaluation in a disadvantaged school. The effect among high-performing teachers is larger, especially in the "Altruistic" arm. Our results imply that low-cost behavioral strategies can enhance the supply and quality of professionals willing to teach in high-need areas.
    Keywords: identity, monetary incentives, priming, altruism, prosocial behavior, teacher sorting
    JEL: I24 D91 I25
    Date: 2021–02
  6. By: Anthony Lepinteur; Sofie R. Waltl
    Abstract: Economic theory predicts that expectations on future house price growth are related to the current price of a house. We test this relationship for the supply side of the secondary housing market using micro data that links individual expectations to a subjective owner estimated value (OEV). We find a strong relationship suggesting that optimistic expectations indeed imply higher OEVs as compared to neutral or pessimistic expectations. We find qualitatively and quantitatively consistent results for Italy and the US as well as for booming and gloomy years. Our results survive ample robustness checks. Since we use subjective data on house prices, we first show that OEVs are indeed a valid source to study house price dynamics by performing three types of convergent validity tests. We find that price dynamics derived by either combining OEVs and dwelling characteristics, or making use of repeatedly provided OEVs by the same owner over time reproduce objectively measured market trends strikingly well – even over decades. In contrast, OEVs and objective data tend to differ in levels – potentially due to psychological bias. These results hold for a large set of countries. We hence conclude that the “wisdom of the home-owner crowd” is sufficient to study house price dynamics but OEVs are less suited for measuring the level of market prices.
    Keywords: Housing Markets; Expectations; Heterogenous Beliefs; Subjective Data; Convergent Validity
    JEL: C43
    Date: 2021–02
  7. By: Alejandra Reyes (The University of Toronto)
    Abstract: Despite decentralization efforts in Mexico during the late 20th century, federal and state-level policy has continued to take precedence over local governance. Local governments in Mexico have limited financial and institutional capacities and are seldom able to guide urban development and construction processes. The result of this top-down approach has sometimes been sprawling and unsustainable development patterns, particularly during the 2000s, when federal and several state governments backed large housing developments at the edges of urban centres. These developments placed a burden on local governments to provide adequate levels of infrastructure and services. More recently, however, the federal administration advocated densification strategies, including the implementation of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs) around 394 Mexican cities or towns with more than 15,000 inhabitants – including 74 metropolitan areas. This paper describes the experience of some of Mexico’s largest cities in implementing nationally mandated urban growth policies, in particular the top-down nature of these new policies and the lack of local consultation in their implementation. Furthermore, given initial opposition from private developers, the boundaries have shifted in subsequent years, thus continuing to privilege development interests above the production of affordable housing and more sustainable development patterns.
    Keywords: urban growth boundries
    Date: 2020–08
  8. By: David R. Agrawal (University of Kentucky, Martin School of Public Policy & CESifo); Dirk Foremny (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB & CESifo); Clara Martínez-Toledano (Columbia Business School)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of wealth taxation on mobility and the consequences for tax revenue and wealth inequality. We exploit the unique decentralization of the Spanish wealth tax system in 2011—after which all regions levied positive tax rates except for Madrid—using linked administrative wealth and income tax records. We find that five years after the reform, the stock of wealthy individuals in the region of Madrid increases by 10% relative to other regions, while smaller tax differentials between other regions do not matter for mobility. We rationalize our findings with a theoretical model of evasion and migration, which suggests that evasion is the mechanism most consistent with all of the mobility response being driven by the paraíso fiscal. Combining new subnational wealth inequality series with our estimated elasticities, we show that Madrid’s status as a tax haven reduces the effectiveness of raising tax revenue and exacerbates regional wealth inequalities.
    Keywords: Wealth Taxes, Mobility, Inequality, Enforcement, Fiscal Decentralization, Tax Havens, Evasion
    JEL: E21 H24 H31 H73 J61 R23
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Ryan R. Brady (United States Naval Academy)
    Abstract: The regional-economic literature is vast, and attempts to estimate the time-series dimension of regional relationships therein are disparate. For applied researchers seeking a straightforward approach to time-series estimation within that literature, the scope may seem daunting. In this paper, I provide both an overview of that vast and disparate literature, and a simple path forward for applied work. For the latter, I first estimate spatial impulse response functions from a general time series-autoregressive model, emphasizing direct forecasting techniques. Second, I estimate impulse response functions from a spatial econometric model, the SLX model, showing how one can tease out spatial forecasts from a standard spatial framework. I demonstrate using state-level data on housing prices.
    Date: 2021–01
  10. By: Kirill Solovev; Nicolas Pr\"ollochs
    Abstract: Online real estate platforms have become significant marketplaces facilitating users' search for an apartment or a house. Yet it remains challenging to accurately appraise a property's value. Prior works have primarily studied real estate valuation based on hedonic price models that take structured data into account while accompanying unstructured data is typically ignored. In this study, we investigate to what extent an automated visual analysis of apartment floor plans on online real estate platforms can enhance hedonic rent price appraisal. We propose a tailored two-staged deep learning approach to learn price-relevant designs of floor plans from historical price data. Subsequently, we integrate the floor plan predictions into hedonic rent price models that account for both structural and locational characteristics of an apartment. Our empirical analysis based on a unique dataset of 9174 real estate listings suggests that current hedonic models underutilize the available data. We find that (1) the visual design of floor plans has significant explanatory power regarding rent prices - even after controlling for structural and locational apartment characteristics, and (2) harnessing floor plans results in an up to 10.56% lower out-of-sample prediction error. We further find that floor plans yield a particularly high gain in prediction performance for older and smaller apartments. Altogether, our empirical findings contribute to the existing research body by establishing the link between the visual design of floor plans and real estate prices. Moreover, our approach has important implications for online real estate platforms, which can use our findings to enhance user experience in their real estate listings.
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Long, Jed; Ren, Chang
    Abstract: Non-pharmaceutical interventions are being used globally to limit the spread of Covid-19, which are in turn affecting individual mobility patterns. Mobility measures were found to be strongly associated with regional socio-economic indicators during the first wave of the pandemic. Here, we use network mobility data from an ~3.5 million person sample of individuals in Ontario, Canada to study the association between three different individual-mobility measures and four socio-economic indicators throughout the first and second wave of Covid-19 (January to December 2020). We demonstrate that understanding how mobility behaviours have changed in response to Covid-19 varies considerably depending on how mobility is measured. We find a strong positive association between different mobility levels and the economic deprivation index, which demonstrates that inequities in the changes to mobility across economic gradients observed during the initial lockdown have persisted into the later stages of the pandemic. However, the associations between mobility and other socio-economic indicators vary over time. We capture a strong day-of-week pattern of association between socio-economic indicators and mobility levels. Our findings have important implications for understanding if and how mobility data should be used to study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the socio-economic conditions across geographical space, and over time. Our results support that Covid-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions have resulted in geographically disparate responses to mobility behaviour, and quantifying mobility changes at fine geographical scales is crucial to understanding the impacts of Covid-19 on local populations.
    Date: 2021–02–10
  12. By: Andrew B. Martinez (Dept of Economics and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Jennifer L. Castle (Magdalen College, Climate Econometrics and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); David F. Hendry (Nuffield College, Climate Econometrics and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We investigate whether smooth robust methods for forecasting can help mitigate pronounced and persistent failure across multiple forecast horizons. We demonstrate that naive predictors are interpretable as local estimators of the long-run relationship with the advantage of adapting quickly after a break, but at a cost of additional forecast error variance. Smoothing over naive estimates helps retain these advantages while reducing the costs, especially for longer forecast horizons. We derive the performance of these predictors after a location shift, and confirm the results using simulations. We apply smooth methods to forecasts of U.K. productivity and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and show that they can dramatically reduce persistent forecast failure exhibited by forecasts from macroeconomic models and professional forecasters.
    Keywords: Location Shifts; Long differencing; Productivity forecasts; Robust forecasts. JEL codes: C51, C53
    Date: 2021–01–14
  13. By: Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo; Rodríguez Gómez, Wilson; Rodríguez Gómez, Efrén
    Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of student performance in the PISA 2018 tests in Colombia focusing on the rural-urban gap. Using quantile regression, a student-level education production function at different points along the achievement distribution is estimated. Applying the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, estimates of how much of the achievement differential between urban–rural students can be explained by different aspects including individual characteristics, family characteristics, and school characteristics are reported. Results indicate that mean differences in performance between students in rural and urban Colombian schools are significant. Observable factors, especially school characteristics, are the main drivers of the performance gap. Substantial differences are observed when different test percentiles of the performance distribution are considered. Our results suggest that one way in which education can reduce student performance gaps is by investing in improving school quality in rural areas in Colombia.
    Keywords: Rural-urban education gap; PISA 2018; Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition; Quantile regression; Education policy; Developing countries
    JEL: I21 I25 R58
    Date: 2021–02
  14. By: Guglielmo Barone; Guido de Blasio; Elena Gentili
    Abstract: The paper estimates the political connection premium for Italian cities tracked during the second half of the 1900s, when the role of the state in the economy was very widespread. It leverages the peculiar features of the gridlocked political landscape in place between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin wall, during which most influential politicians remained in charge for a very long time. We compare connected cities - small areas surrounding birthplaces of both prime ministers and leaders of the parties in power - with very similar, but unconnected municipalities, and find that politically connected cities gained a population premium of 8% over 40 years. When the connection ends, the difference in growth rate fades away. We document that birthplaces of powerful politicians benefited from both infrastructure investments and the location of plants by state-owned enterprises. Not surprisingly, the connection favored industrialization, raised employment and wages, but crowded out private entrepreneurship. Finally, our empirical evidence indicates that agglomeration economies in treated municipalities were not higher, thus suggesting that, if anything, place-based interventions linked to political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide point of view.
    JEL: H50 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–12
  15. By: Samantha L. Strachan (Alabama AM University, Normal, AL)
    Abstract: The United States continues to embrace foreign teachers as a means of addressing teacher shortages across the country. For subject areas where shortages may be most acute, such as science, foreign teachers have been actively recruited to teach these subjects in U.S. schools. While the active recruitment and eventual migration of foreign science teachers to the United States has helped to mediate shortages in school districts across the country, foreign teachers can experience cross-cultural issues when they teach in U.S. classrooms. These cross-cultural issues can include cultural clashes and differences in expectations tied to communication, instruction, behavior, curricula, and the overall structure of schools. This paper expounds on the importance of examining cross-cultural issues experienced by foreign science teachers who work in U.S. science classrooms.
    Keywords: foreign teachers, international teachers, cross-cultural issues, science teachers
    Date: 2020–08
  16. By: Zack Taylor (Western University)
    Abstract: This paper takes stock of current practices of metropolitan governance in Canada to identify patterns of institutional and policy development. While Canada was best known in the postwar decades for innovating two-tier metropolitan local governments in Toronto, Montréal, Winnipeg, and other cities, this model no longer exists at the metropolitan scale anywhere in the country. Instead, we see five distinct models in operation, sometimes in combination with one another: the “unicity,” or single-tier municipal model; the compulsory regional intergovernmental organization; the voluntary intermunicipal partnership; the metropolitan single-purpose body; and the provincial policy overlay. This diversity of institutional forms found across Canada reflects variation in both provincial systems of local government and geographies of urban settlement. It also points to both the flexibility of Canadian governance and policy making and the central role provincial governments play in establishing these systems.
    Keywords: Metropolitan governance
    JEL: H10 H70 H73
    Date: 2020–07
  17. By: Leschnig, Lisa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Schwerdt, Guido (University of Konstanz); Zigova, Katarina (University of Konstanz)
    Abstract: Central exams are often hypothesized to favorably affect incentive structures in schools. Indeed, previous research provides vast evidence on the positive effects of central exams on student test scores. But critics warn that these effects may arise through the strategic behavior of students and teachers, which may not affect human capital accumulation in the long run. Exploiting variation in examination types across school systems and over time, we provide the first evidence that central exams positively affect adult skills. However, our estimates are small compared to the existing estimates for students, which may indicate some fade-out in the effect on skills over time.
    Keywords: Central Exams, adult skills, earnings, PIAAC
    JEL: I20 J24 J31
    Date: 2021–02
  18. By: Hershbein, Brad J. (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Holzer, Harry J. (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics. Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently, but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths—but not caseloads—not only depress current employment, but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets.
    Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, employment, low-wage workers, state closures
    JEL: J0 J1 J6
    Date: 2021–02
  19. By: Balatti, Mirco; López-Quiles, Carolina
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the effects of limited liability on mortgage dynamics. While the literature has focused on default rates, renegotiation, or loan rates individually, we study them together as equilibrium outcomes of the strategic interaction between lenders and borrowers. We present a simple model of default and renegotiation where the degree of limited liability plays a key role in agents' strategies. We then use Fannie Mae loan performance data to test the predictions of the model. We focus on Metropolitan Statistical Areas that are crossed by a State border in order to exploit the discontinuity in regulation around the borders of States. As predicted by the model, we find that limited liability results in higher default rates and renegotiation rates. Regarding loan pricing, while the model predicts higher interest rates for limited liability loans, we find no such evidence in the Fannie Mae data. We further investigate this by using loan application data, which contains the interest rates on loans sold to private vs public investors. We find that private investors do price in the difference in ex-ante predictable default risk for limited liability loans. JEL Classification: D10, E40, G21, R20, R30
    Keywords: debt repudiation, discontinuity, lender recourse, mortgage contracts, renegotiation
    Date: 2021–01
  20. By: Giacomo Rella
    Abstract: Did the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through housing and household debt change over time? I explore this question using a ten-variable time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility estimated on US data from 1960 to 2018. The model captures the joint dynamics of aggregate economy, housing sector, policy and household debt. Monetary policy shocks are identified with timing restrictions. I find evidence that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through housing and household debt changed over time. The response of new housing starts and residential investment to monetary policy shocks has become slower and slightly larger. In contrast, the sensitivity of household debt to monetary policy shocks diminished since the late 1960s, except of the early 2000s when it increased. House prices stand as the most important variable for the transmission of monetary policy through housing in most recent decades. In the last part of the paper, I frame the aggregate evidence in the light of the institutional changes that have been affecting the US housing finance system since the 1970s.
    Keywords: time-varying parameter VAR, monetary policy, housing, household debt
    JEL: E44 E52 E58 G51 N1
    Date: 2021–02
  21. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
    Abstract: Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide ï¬ rst evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data conï¬ rm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since—as of June 16, 2020—they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pretreatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magniï¬ ed in combination with a higher black share.
    Keywords: COVID-19, deaths, blacks, redlining, vulnerability, Cook County, Chicago.
    JEL: I14 J15 N32 N92 R38
    Date: 2020–07
  22. By: Gershenson, Seth (American University)
    Abstract: Teachers are among the most important school-provided determinants of student success. Effective teachers improve students' test scores as well as their attendance, behavior, and earnings as adults. However, students do not enjoy equal access to effective teachers. This article reviews some of the key challenges associated with teacher policy confronted by school leaders and education policymakers, and how the tools of applied economics can help address those challenges. The first challenge is that identifying effective teachers is difficult. Economists use value-added models to estimate teacher effectiveness, which works well in certain circumstances, but should be just one piece of a multi-measure strategy for identifying effective teachers. We also discuss how different policies, incentives, school characteristics, and professional-development interventions can increase teacher effectiveness; this is important, as schools face the daunting challenge of hiring effective teachers, helping teachers to improve, and removing ineffective teachers from the classroom. Finally, we discuss the supply and mobility of teachers, including the consequences of teacher absenteeism, the distribution of initial teaching placements, and the characteristics and preferences of those who enter the profession.
    Keywords: teacher supply, teacher effectiveness, incentive pay, value-added models
    JEL: I24 I21
    Date: 2021–02
  23. By: Yang Liu (Department of Risk Management, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany)
    Abstract: Recent years have witnessed a dramatic increase in real estate prices in mainland China. Current research mainly takes the Chinese housing market as an independent market and focuses on potential future growth or the increasing asset bubble in this market. This research, however, studies the short- and long-run interrelationship between the housing market and two other major markets in mainland China - the stock market and the domestic consumption market - from 2005 to 2019. In addition, the codependency between Chinas economy and the real estate market is also examined. After detecting the structural breaks in the time series of property price index by using the recursive CUSUM test, the whole examining period is divided into sub-periods. In each subperiod, the variance decomposition and Granger causality tests are used to identify the timevarying short- and long-run interdependencies between these markets. Results indicate that there is time-varying relation between property prices and stock indexes, and the correlation between property prices and stock indexes becomes weaker over time. In terms of housing market and the domestic consumption market, a weak relation between these two markets is observed over the whole period. These findings are of vital importance for China domestic investors to help them understand and diversify the risk of their portfolios, which are mainly composed by property and stock assets. In addition, these results offer new insight into the impact of the housing market on the domestic consumption market within Chinese context. This further aids the Chinese government in regulating these three markets more efficiently and avoiding any unwanted domino effect between them.
    Keywords: Variance decomposition, Stock market, Property market, Domestic consumption market, China.
    JEL: C12 R21 R31
    Date: 2020–04
  24. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
    Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions
    Keywords: Black family, slavery, sugar, migration, culture
    JEL: J12 J47 N30 O13 Z10
    Date: 2020–05
  25. By: Nael Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq; Yixue Zhang; Steven Farber
    Abstract: In light of the increasing interest to transform the fixed-route public transit (FRT) services into on-demand transit (ODT) services, there exists a strong need for a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of this shift on the users. Such an analysis can help the municipalities and service providers to design and operate more convenient, attractive, and sustainable transit solutions. To understand the user preferences, we developed three hybrid choice models: integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV), latent class (LC), and latent class integrated choice and latent variable (LC-ICLV) models. We used these models to analyze the public transit user's preferences in Belleville, Ontario, Canada. Hybrid choice models were estimated using a rich dataset that combined the actual level of service attributes obtained from Belleville's ODT service and self-reported usage behaviour obtained from a revealed preference survey of the ODT users. The latent class models divided the users into two groups with different travel behaviour and preferences. The results showed that the captive user's preference for ODT service was significantly affected by the number of unassigned trips, in-vehicle time, and main travel mode before the ODT service started. On the other hand, the non-captive user's service preference was significantly affected by the Time Sensitivity and the Online Service Satisfaction latent variables, as well as the performance of the ODT service and trip purpose. This study attaches importance to improving the reliability and performance of the ODT service and outlines directions for reducing operational costs by updating the required fleet size and assigning more vehicles for work-related trips.
    Date: 2021–02
  26. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, via Mersin 10, Northern Cyprus, Turkey); David Gabauer (Data Analysis Systems, Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)
    Abstract: Utilizing a machine-learning technique known as random forests, we study whether regional output growth uncertainty helps to improve the accuracy of forecasts of regional output growth for twelve regions of the United Kingdom using monthly data for the period from 1970 to 2020. We use a stochastic-volatility model to measure regional output growth uncertainty. We document the importance of interregional stochastic volatility spillovers and the direction of the transmission mechanism. Given this, our empirical results shed light on the contribution to forecast performance of own uncertainty associated with a particular region, output growth uncertainty of other regions, and output growth uncertainty as measured for London as well. We find that output growth uncertainty significantly improves forecast performance in several cases, where we also document cross-regional heterogeneity in this regard.
    Keywords: Regional Output Growth, Uncertainty, United Kingdom, Forecasting, Machine Learning
    JEL: C22 C53 D8 E32 E37 R11
    Date: 2021–02
  27. By: Mohammad Akbarpour (Stanford University - Stanford Graduate School of Business); Cody Cook (Stanford University - Stanford Graduate School of Business); Aude Marzuoli (Replica); Simon Mongey (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER); Abhishek Nagaraj (University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business); Matteo Saccarola (University of Chicago - Department of Economics); Pietro Tebaldi (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER); Shoshana Vasserman (Stanford University - Stanford Graduate School of Business); Hanbin Yang (Harvard University - Harvard Business School)
    Abstract: We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak, accounting for health and economic trade-offs within the same empirical framework. We leverage a variety of data sources, including data on individuals’ mobility and encounters across metropolitan areas, health records, and measures of the possibility to be productively working from home. This combination of data sources allows us to build a framework in which the severity of a disease outbreak varies across locations and industries, and across individuals who differ by age, occupation, and preexisting health conditions. We use this framework to analyze the impact of different social distancing policies in the context of the COVID-19 outbreaks across US metropolitan areas. Our results highlight how outcomes vary across areas in relation to the underlying heterogeneity in population density, social network structures, population health, and employment characteristics. We find that policies by which individuals who can work from home continue to do so, or in which schools and firms alternate schedules across different groups of students and employees, can be effective in limiting the health and healthcare costs of the pandemic outbreak while also reducing employment losses.
    Date: 2020
  28. By: Dan Goldhaber; Scott A. Imberman; Katharine O. Strunk; Bryant Hopkins; Nate Brown; Erica Harbatkin; Tara Kilbride
    Abstract: The decision about how and when to open schools to in-person instruction has been a key question for policymakers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The instructional modality of schools has implications not only for the health and safety of students and staff, but also student learning and the degree to which parents can engage in job activities. We consider the role of instructional modality (in-person, hybrid, or remote instruction) in disease spread among the wider community. Using a variety of regression modeling strategies , we find that simple correlations show in-person modalities are correlated with increased COVID cases, but accounting for both pre-existing cases and a richer set of covariates brings estimates close to zero on average. In Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) specifications, in-person modality options are not associated with increased spread of COVID at low levels of pre-existing COVID cases but cases do increase at moderate to high pre-existing COVID rates. A bounding exercise suggests that the OLS findings for in-person modality are likely to represent an upper bound on the true relationship. These findings are robust to the inclusion of county and district fixed effects in terms of the insignificance of the findings, but the models with fixed effects are also somewhat imprecisely estimated.
    JEL: I1 I2
    Date: 2021–02
  29. By: Ganau, Roberto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: We investigate the extent to which regional institutional quality shapes firm labour productivity in Western Europe, using a sample of manufacturing firms from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain, observed over the period 2009–2014. The results indicate that regional institutional quality positively affects firms' labour productivity and that government effectiveness is the most important institutional determinant of productivity levels. However, how institutions shape labour productivity depends on the type of firm considered. Smaller, less capital endowed and high-tech sectors are three of the types of firms whose productivity is most favourably affected by good and effective institutions at the regional level.
    Keywords: cross-country analysis; labour productivity; manufacturing firms; regional institutions; Western Europe
    JEL: C23 D24 H41 R12
    Date: 2019–08–01
  30. By: Jules Gazeaud; Claire Ricard
    Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design in rural Morocco to study whether the enrollment gains from conditional cash transfer programs translate into learning benefits. Unlike most previous studies, we estimate the effects of a sustained exposure during whole primary school. We find small and seemingly negative effects on test scores at the end-of-primary school exam. Concomitant increases in class size suggest that the program constrained learning by putting additional pressure on existing resources in beneficiary areas. These results are particularly relevant for settings where transfers are geographically targeted with no measures to absorb the extra influx of students.
    Keywords: Conditional cash transfers, learning outcomes, program scaleup, Morocco, Tayssir
    JEL: I21 I38 J24 O12 O15
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Marina Murat; Luca Bonacini
    Abstract: School closures during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 forced countries to swiftly adopt distance learning, with uncertain effects on education inequalities. Using PISA 2018 data from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, we find that students unable to learn remotely, because of a lack of the necessary ICT resources at home or at school or of a quiet place to study, experience significant cognitive losses that, everything else equal, range from 70 percent of a school year in the United Kingdom to 50 percent in Italy. Similar results are found by considering days of absence from school. In both approaches, the distribution of cognitive losses is associated with countries’ educational systems. In the longer run, students who cannot learn remotely are more likely to end their education early and repeat grades. The two outcomes strongly reinforce each other in Spain, Germany and Italy. Results – robust to different specifications and the imputation of missing data – imply that countries must enhance e-learning and support disadvantaged students, but tune these measures to the characteristics of their educational systems.
    Keywords: Coronavirus pandemic, education, inequality, PISA.
    JEL: I21 I24 H52
    Date: 2020–09
  32. By: Juan Diaz; Nicolas Grau; Tatiana Reyes; Jorge Rivera
    Abstract: This paper studies the causal effect of grade retention in primary school on juvenile crime in Chile. Implementing a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we find that repeating an early grade in primary school decreases the probability of committing a crime as a juvenile by 14.5 percentage points. By estimating and simulating a dynamic model, we show that the RD result is mainly driven by two mechanisms related to the timing of grade retention. First, grade retention in early grades decreases the probability of grade retention in late primary school grades. Second, late grade retention in primary education has a positive and more relevant effect on crime than the direct effect in early grades. Our findings support the argument that, conditional on the decision to keep grade retention as an ongoing policy, the optimal implementation at the margin is to retain students in early grades in order to avoid retention in later ones.
    Date: 2021–02
  33. By: Roses, Joan R.; Domenech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
    Abstract: The outburst of deaths and cases of Covid-19 around the world has renewed the interest to understand the mortality effects of pandemics across regions, occupations, age and gender. The Spanish Flu is the closest pandemic to Covid-19. Mortality rates in Spain were among the largest in today's developed countries. Our research documents a substantial heterogeneity on mortality rates across occupations. The highest mortality was on low-income workers. We also record a rural mortality penalty that reversed the historical urban penalty temporally. The higher capacity of certain social groups to isolate themselves from social contact could explain these mortality differentials. However, adjusting mortality evidence by these two factors, there were still large mortality inter-provincial differences for the same occupation and location, suggesting the existence of a regional component in rates of flu contagion possibly related to climatic differences.
    Keywords: Urban Penalty; Socio-Economic Differences; Health Inequality; Pandemics
    JEL: I14 J1 N34
    Date: 2021–02–09
  34. By: Carlana, Michela (Harvard Kennedy School); La Ferrara, Eliana (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the governments of most countries ordered the closure of schools, potentially exacerbating existing learning gaps. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of an intervention implemented in Italian middle schools that provides free individual tutoring online to disadvantaged students during lock-down. Tutors are university students who volunteer for 3 to 6 hours per week. They were randomly assigned to middle school students, from a list of potential beneficiaries compiled by school principals. Using original survey data collected from students, parents, teachers and tutors, we find that the program substantially increased students' academic performance (by 0.26 SD on average) and that it significantly improved their socio-emotional skills, aspirations, and psychological well-being. Effects are stronger for children from lower socioeconomic status and, in the case of psychological well-being, for immigrant children.
    Keywords: tutoring, COVID-19, education, achievement, aspirations, socioemotional skills, well-being
    JEL: I24 I21
    Date: 2021–02
  35. By: Rodrigo Martínez-Mazza (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)
    Abstract: Young individuals are currently living with their parents more than at any other point in time, while also spending more on housing. In this paper, I first show how labor market entry conditions affect housing tenure and affordability in the long term, by using the unemployment rate at the time of graduation as an exogenous shock to income. I perform this analysis across Europe for the last 25 years. Results indicate that a 1 pp increase in the unemployment rate at the time of graduation leads, one year after, to (1) a 1.50 pp increase in the probability of living with parents, (2) a 1.02 pp decrease in the probability of home-ownership and 0.45 pp decrease in renting, and (3) worse affordability. Second, I develop an OLG model to link income shocks for young agents with changes in housing tenure at the aggregate level. I allow for an outside option for landlords which can introduce rigidity into the rental market. Results show that if rental markets are rigid, an income shock to young agents will translate into a larger share of them living with their parents, worse affordability, and larger welfare losses. Finally, I perform a policy exercise based on the French housing aid system. I show that housing aid policies can help to recover welfare losses for young agents, by enabling them to afford to rent. Recognizing the right scenario for the implementation of these policies is key to ensure welfare gains concentrate on the targeted population.
    Keywords: Housing, labor markets, long-term effects
    JEL: R20 R21 J24
    Date: 2020
  36. By: David J. Harding; Lisa Sanbonmatsu; Greg J. Duncan; Lisa A. Gennetian; Lawrence F. Katz; Ronald C. Kessler; Jeffrey R. Kling; Matthew Sciandra; Jens Ludwig
    Abstract: Although non-experimental studies find robust neighborhood effects on adults, such findings have been challenged by results from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) residential mobility experiment. Using a within-study comparison design, this paper compares experimental and non-experimental estimates from MTO and a parallel analysis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Striking similarities were found between non-experimental estimates based on MTO and PSID. No clear evidence was found that different estimates are related to duration of adult exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods, non-linear effects of neighborhood conditions, magnitude of the change in neighborhood context, frequency of moves, treatment effect heterogeneity, or measurement, although uncertainty bands around our estimates were sometimes large. One other possibility is that MTO-induced moves might have been unusually disruptive, but results are inconsistent for that hypothesis. Taken together, the findings suggest that selection bias might account for evidence of neighborhood effects on adult economic outcomes in non-experimental studies.
    JEL: H0 I3 J0
    Date: 2021–02
  37. By: Kotyrlo, Elena (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Commuting is linked to fertility through demographic, social, and economic mechanisms. Average differences in first-birth rates of young, working women are estimated by a bivariate model with endogenous commuting. Empirical evidence based on administrative data (Sweden) reveals that commuting women have a lower probability of a first birth between 21-28 years of age and a higher probability between 29-32 years. Therefore, commuting women likely postpone their first child. Additional direct and spillover effects of commuting on fertility appear in income cross-municipal flows, diffusion of fertility norms across space, and changes in gender structure of the population of fertile age. A positive effect on relative income and social norms and a negative sex ratio effect are found significant both for commuting women and those who work in the municipality of their residence. Marginal effects for commuters are greater in magnitude.
    Keywords: commuting; demand for children; effect of earnings; daytime population; subjective wellbeing
    JEL: J11 J13 J61
    Date: 2021–02–16
  38. By: Ran Hirschl (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: In contrast with the constitutional silence concerning urban agglomeration and the stalemate with respect to city status in most Global North settings, several countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa have generated new ideas about the constitutional governance of the metropolis and of the urban/rural divide more generally. In this paper, I explore what national constitutions around the world say (and do not say) about cities, before examining three of the most ambitious attempts to date to bolster the constitutional status of cities. These are the adoption in 1992 of the 73rd and 74th amendments to the Constitution of India; the protection of city status in the constitution of Brazil (1988) and its support through the City Statute (2001); and the inclusion of a chapter in South Africa’s post-apartheid constitution (1996) devoted to cities as an order of government. The comparative analysis suggests that South Africa’s constitutionalization of city power is arguably the most effective of these attempts. In India and Brazil, constitutional experimentation with city emancipation has proven less effective, often succumbing to deeply engrained intergovernmental hierarchies and blatant political manoeuvring. Taken as a whole, this paper highlights the significance of necessity (the vast majority of urbanization takes place in the Global South), constitutional malleability, and, above all, political will in addressing the constitutional status of cities.
    Keywords: national constitutions
    JEL: H10 H77
    Date: 2020–11
  39. By: André Côté; Gabriel Eidelman; Michael Fenn (The University of Toronto)
    Abstract: The need for more effective regional governance in the Toronto region has long been evident, and has been thrown into greater relief by the coronavirus pandemic. Problems such as lack of affordable housing, income inequality, the need to spur economic development, and the impact of climate change all spill across municipal boundaries and must be addressed through cooperation and coordination at the regional scale. This paper proposes a “playbook†for greater regional coordination in Greater Toronto, led not by the provincial government, nor even by local mayors and councillors, but rather, as a starting point, by senior municipal public servants. The playbook outlines practical steps municipal executives and senior officials (city managers, CAOs, commissioners, general managers, and chief planners) in the Greater Toronto region can take to build momentum toward greater voluntary regional governance. Step 1: Assemble a trusted group of peers to informally build interest in collaboration. Step 2: Convene a formal meeting of municipal executives to determine shared priorities and principles for cooperation. Step 3: Pick a project to work on together based on potential impact and degree of difficulty. Step 4: Design a “minimum viable process†to address operational, governance, and resource needs. Step 5: Track and evaluate progress using project-specific performance indicators. Step 6: Formalize the voluntary arrangement by tailoring national and international models to local conditions.
    Keywords: playbook
    Date: 2020–06
  40. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Lindenthal, Volker (University of Munich); Mukand, Sharun (University of Warwick); Waldinger, Fabian (University of Munich)
    Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating the escape of persecuted academics from Nazi Germany. From 1933, the Nazi regime started to dismiss academics of Jewish origin from their positions. The timing of dismissals created individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of emigration from Nazi Germany, allowing us to estimate the causal effect of networks for emigration decisions. Academics with ties to more colleagues who had emigrated in 1933 or 1934 (early émigrés) were more likely to emigrate. The early émigrés functioned as "bridging nodes" that helped other academics cross over to their destination. Furthermore, we provide some of the first empirical evidence of decay in social ties over time. The strength of ties also decays across space, even within cities. Finally, for high-skilled migrants, professional networks are more important than community networks.
    Keywords: Nazi Germany, professional networks, Antisemitism
    JEL: I20 I23 I28 J15 J24 N34
    Date: 2021–02
  41. By: Neugart, Michael; Rode, Johannes
    Abstract: We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters' democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2 (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Patankar, Archana (Green Globe Consultancy)
    Abstract: Extreme precipitation and flooding cause large-scale impacts on people, and are further intensified by rapid urbanization, infrastructure expansion, and large numbers of people residing in informal settlements in destitute conditions. This underscores the need to characterize the impacts of extreme precipitation on different stakeholders and help formulate policies and plans to mitigate them. The focus of this paper is on characterizing and analyzing the impacts of extreme precipitation events at the micro level on vulnerable households and small and medium-sized enterprises in three locations in India: Mumbai, Chennai, and Puri district. These areas have faced devastating extreme rainfall events in recent years and offer critical insights into asset the exposure of, and direct and indirect impacts on, urban and rural entities. The flood impact analysis in this paper provides a multidimensional view with quantitative damage estimates and qualitative insights into the devastation and distress caused. It also highlights the heterogeneity of flood impacts and the potential to push the poor into a debt trap and further poverty.
    Keywords: disaster risk management; extreme events; flooding; household survey; urban poverty
    JEL: I32 I38 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2019–12–23
  43. By: Luis Willumsen (Nommon Solutions and Technologies)
    Abstract: This paper guides transport planners in making the best use of mobile phone traces, derived either from mobile network data or from smartphone app data. It suggests combining such new data sources with conventional travel surveys whose sample size and cost could ultimately be reduced. In the context of a rapidly evolving mobility landscape, with new modes and new services available, big data can help monitor behaviour change, learn from quasi-experiments and develop next-generation travel demand modelling tools.
    Date: 2021–01–27

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