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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Gergo Toth; Zoltan Elekes; Adam Whittle; Changjun Lee; Dieter F. Kogler |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the network robustness of the technological capability base of 269 European metropolitan areas against the potential elimination of some of their capabilities. By doing so it provides systematic evidence on how network robustness conditioned the economic resilience of these regions in the context of the 2008 economic crisis. The analysis concerns calls in the relevant literature for more in-depth analysis on the link between regional economic network structures and the resilience of regions to economic shocks. By adopting a network science approach that is novel to economic geographic inquiry, the objective is to stress-test the technological resilience of regions by utilizing information on the co-classification of CPC classes listed on European Patent Office patent documents. Findings from a regression analysis indicate that metropolitan regions with a more robust technological knowledge network structure exhibit higher levels of resilience with respect to changes in employment rates. This finding is robust to various random and targeted elimination strategies concerning the most frequently combined technological capabilities. Regions with high levels of employment in industry but with vulnerable technological capability base are particularly challenged by this aspect of regional economic resilience. |
| Keywords: | regional economic resilience, network robustness, metropolitan regions, technology space |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2048&r=all |
| By: | Norbert Pfeifer (University of Graz, Austria); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use two years worth of daily housing platform data (October 2018 to September 2020) to construct early market indicators for London and Vienna. The timing of the dataset allows us to track the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic almost in real time. In particular, we construct indicators on price development, price-rent ratio, market volume, time-on-market, market turnover, and market sentiment. We introduce a new market sentiment indicator, which we construct from the direction and frequency of sellers’ online price changes. To capture the market sentiment from the buyers’ perspective we provide Google-trends indicators based on housing related key-word searches. We find that the Covid-19 pandemic has triggered very different initial reactions in the two housing markets: The London housing market shows signs of weakening since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in the form of decreases in list prices, market liquidity, and turnover. In contrast, the Vienna housing market shows increases in list prices, market liquidity and turnover, as well as a stable positive market sentiment. In terms of indicator reliance we show that changes in listing composition (as happened during the March/April London lock-down) can upset the positive correlation of online price indicators with the underlying housing market situation. This implies that special care must be taken to insure that changes in the composition of listed data do not drive the indicator results. It also suggests that it is better to consider a group of these early indicators together rather than relying on individual indicators. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; House Price Indicator; House Price Index; Leading Indicators; Housing Market. |
| JEL: | R21 R30 R31 E31 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2020-17&r=all |
| By: | Theresa Kuchler; Johannes Stroebel |
| Abstract: | We review an empirical literature that studies the role of social interactions in driving economic and financial decision making. We first summarize recent work that documents an important role of social interactions in explaining household decisions in housing and mortgage markets. This evidence shows, for example, that there are large peer effects in mortgage refinancing decisions and that individuals' beliefs about the attractiveness of housing market investments are affected by the recent house price experiences of their friends. We also summarize the evidence that social interactions affect the stock market investments of both retail and professional investors as well as household financial decisions such as retirement savings, borrowing, and default. Along the way, we describe a number of easily accessible recent data sets for the study of social interactions in finance, including the "Social Connectedness Index," which measures the frequency of Facebook friendship links across geographic regions. We conclude by outlining several promising directions for further research at the intersection of household finance and "social finance." |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27973&r=all |
| By: | Aline Bütikofer (Norwegian School of Economics); Rita Ginja (University of Bergen); Fanny Landaud (Norwegian School of Economics); Katrine Løken (University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | Although many students suffer from anxiety and depression, and students often identify school pressure and concerns about their futures as the main reasons for their worries, little is known about the consequences of a selective school environment on students' physical and mental health. In this paper, we draw on rich administrative data and the features of the high school assignment system in the largest Norwegian cities to consider the long-term consequences of enrollment in a more selective high school. Using a regression discontinuity analysis, we show that eligibility to enroll in a more selective high school increases the probability of enrollment in higher education and decreases the probability of diagnosis or treatment by a general medical practitioner for psychological symptoms and diseases. We further document that enrolling in a more selective high school has a greater positive impact when there are larger changes in the student-teacher ratio, teachers' age, and the proportion of female teachers. These findings suggest that changes in teacher characteristics are important for better understanding the effects of a more selective school environment. |
| Keywords: | mental health, selective schools, teacher characteristics, Norway |
| JEL: | I12 I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-074&r=all |
| By: | Yifan Gong; Charles Ka Yui Leung |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple spatial equilibrium model with the peer group effect and local public finance to analyze the implications of housing policies such as public housing and housing voucher programs, and education policies such as school finance consolidation. The calibrated model can match several stylized facts of the labor market and the housing market in the United States. Our counterfactual policy analyses suggest that public housing and housing voucher programs have similar welfare implications on the household level. However, within a household, the public housing program tends to benefit the children more than the parents, while the housing voucher program delivers the opposite result. Combining the school finance consolidation policy with the public housing program could improve the well-being of children from poor households without hurting other households' welfare. Some policies' short-run welfare implications can deviate significantly from their long-run counterparts when all choices are optimized. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1105&r=all |
| By: | Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel A. Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Grounded in the general equilibrium framework of regional adjustment models, this paper studies how the spatial distribution of sectoral employment can affect the intra-regional spatial location of population, and so affect territorial development. Although spatial interactions, spatial heterogeneity and sectoral heterogeneity have been introduced in these models, no empirical studies can be found that reveal how spatio-sectoral heterogeneity affects the intra-regional distribution of population and jobs. This paper explores this effect through a complex set of interdependencies among the regional population, the employment in the regional economic sectors and their respective regional neighbours within the different regional typologies (urban, semi-urban and rural areas), as suggested by the concept of proximity developed by (58). We use a system of simultaneous equations to focus on the phenomenon of rural depopulation for the 542 municipalities of the Valencian region (Spain). The results provide evidence for the relevance of spatio-sectoral dynamics, suggesting that reversing depopulation in rural areas depends strongly on the services sector. |
| Keywords: | depopulation, neighbours, population dynamics, sectoral employment, spatial effects, territorial development |
| JEL: | C3 O18 O21 R1 R23 R3 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2020/24&r=all |
| By: | Whitehead, Christine M.E.; Goering, John |
| Abstract: | This paper compares how New York and London, two major global cities, have developed policies and programmes to help ensure affordable housing for their citizens. It clarifies how, starting from relatively limited local regulatory powers in the nineteenth century, each city has used local resources as well as centrally authorized programmes, to create unique mixes of rental housing support, mostly based on instruments that enable sub-market rents. It goes on to discuss how the legacies arising from these interventions, both positive and negative, have influenced affordability in these cities’ current, more internationally open and generally more privatized, housing systems. The relative success of both cities has depended on the management of this pastiche of programmes and financing. Even so, while large proportions of lower income households in both cities (although larger in London) are assisted, there remains significant, and, in current economic circumstances, potentially growing numbers of households, facing unaffordable market rents. In the foreseeable future it can only be an amalgam of these local and nationally supported policies together with local initiatives that can help limit, although not resolve, the continuing problems of ensuring adequate affordable homes for lower income households in both New York and London. |
| Keywords: | affordable housing; comparative analysis of housing policies; national and local housing policies; rental housing markets historically |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107051&r=all |
| By: | Silvia Beghelli (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Gianni Guastella (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Stefano Pareglio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the effects of urban governance structure on the spatial expansion of metropolitan areas. A more fragmented governance structure, represented by a high number of administrative units with decision power on land use per inhabitant, is expected to increase the competition between small towns in the suburbs of metropolitan areas to attract households and workers, which, in turn, induces more land uptake. We study empirically the relationship between administrative fragmentation and the spatial size of cities in a sample of 180 metropolitan areas in the contexts of the US and Europe in the period 2000-2012. Results shed light on the structural differences between the two broad regions and suggest that administrative fragmentation impacts positively on land uptake in both the United States and Europe, although to different extents. |
| Keywords: | Land take, Governance fragmentation, City size, United States and Europe |
| JEL: | R12 R28 R52 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2019.26&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Chareyron (Université Paris-Est Créteil, ERUDITE, TEPP, France); Florence Goffette-Nagot (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Lucie Letrouit (Paris School of Economics, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 PARIS, France) |
| Abstract: | Urban renewal programs have been implemented in many countries to fight housing decay, poverty concentration, and associated social ills in the last decades. In this paper, we propose an evaluation of a large-scale urban renewal program launched in France in 2004. Using a novel estimator aimed at avoiding bias in the estimation of treatment effects heterogeneous across treatment groups or time periods, and complementing its results with a more precise double fixed effects difference-in-differences estimator, we find no significant effect of the program on housing values and transaction volume. However, we do find a significant impact on the social profile of housing buyers and sellers: an increased number of upward transitions of housing units, from blue-collar sellers to intermediate category buyers or from intermediate category sellers to executive buyers, and reduced housing transactions among executives. Altogether, our findings suggest a renewed interest of upper socio-professional categories to invest or keep their property in the renovated neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | Place-based policies, urban renewal, housing prices, housing spillovers, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | D62 H23 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2030&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Chareyron (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL - Université Gustave Eiffel, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florence Goffette-Nagot (GATE - Health System Analysis Laboratory - Université de Lyon); Lucie Letrouit (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Urban renewal programs have been implemented in many countries to ght housing decay, poverty concentration, and associated social ills in the last decades. In this paper, we propose an evaluation of a large-scale urban renewal program launched in France in 2004. Using a novel estimator aimed at avoiding bias in the estimation of treatment eects heterogeneous across treatment groups or time periods, and complementing its results with a more precise double xed eects dierence-in-dierences estimator, we nd no signicant eect of the program on housing values and transaction volume. However, we do nd a signicant impact on the social prole of housing buyers and sellers: an increased number of upward transitions of housing units, from blue-collar sellers to intermediate category buyers or from intermediate category sellers to executive buyers, and reduced housing transactions among executives. Altogether, our ndings suggest a renewed interest of upper socio-professional categories to invest or keep their property in the renovated neighborhoods.4 |
| Keywords: | Place-based policies,urban renewal,housing prices,housing spillovers,difference-indifferences |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02972448&r=all |
| By: | Arnim Seidlitz; Larissa Zierow |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of longer school days — induced by voluntary all-day programs in German primary schools — on school performance. We combine data from the National Educational Panel Study covering 5771 primary school students with municipality-level information on all-day school investments. Facing the challenge of selection into all-day school programs, we instrument all-day school expansion with construction subsidies from a large federal investment project. Results imply that all-day programs lead to improvements in language and math skills as measured by teacher assessments and to a higher probability of being recommended for the academic track after primary school. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that boys benefit more than girls from all-day programs in terms of the assessment by their math teacher. Furthermore, there is a significant negative effect on non-native speakers’ math and German test scores. |
| Keywords: | all-day school, skill development, educational inequality |
| JEL: | J13 I28 I24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8618&r=all |
| By: | Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria); Sofie R. Waltl (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | The ECB and Eurostat have been trying to bring owner-occupied housing (OOH) into the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for two decades without success. OOH is now back on the agenda as part of the ECB's new monetary-policy strategy. A fresh perspective is needed. We argue that a viable way forward is using a simplified version of the user-cost method. This would improve the harmonization of the HICP, help close the credibility gap between measured in inflation and the public's perception of it, and make it easier for the ECB to achieve its inflation target. |
| Keywords: | Measurement of inflation; Owner occupied housing; User cost; Rental equivalence; Hedonic quantile regression; Housing booms and busts; Inflation targeting; Disinflation puzzle; Leaning against the wind; Secular stagnation. |
| JEL: | C31 C43 E01 E31 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2020-18&r=all |
| By: | Geoff Boeing |
| Abstract: | This morphological study identifies and measures recent nationwide trends in American street network design. Historically, orthogonal street grids provided the interconnectivity and density that researchers identify as important factors for reducing vehicular travel and emissions and increasing road safety and physical activity. During the 20th century, griddedness declined in planning practice alongside declines in urban form compactness, density, and connectivity as urbanization sprawled around automobile dependence. But less is known about comprehensive empirical trends across US neighborhoods, especially in recent years. This study uses public and open data to examine tract-level street networks across the entire US. It develops theoretical and measurement frameworks for a quality of street networks defined here as griddedness. It measures how griddedness, orientation order, straightness, 4-way intersections, and intersection density declined from 1940 through the 1990s while dead-ends and block lengths increased. However, since 2000, these trends have rebounded, shifting back toward historical design patterns. Yet, despite this rebound, when controlling for topography and built environment factors all decades post-1939 are associated with lower griddedness than pre-1940. Higher griddedness is associated with less car ownership - which itself has a well-established relationship with vehicle kilometers traveled and greenhouse gas emissions - while controlling for density, home and household size, income, jobs proximity, street network grain, and local topography. Interconnected grid-like street networks offer practitioners an important tool for curbing car dependence and emissions. Once established, street patterns determine urban spatial structure for centuries, so proactive planning is essential. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.04771&r=all |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | At year-end 2019, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 17.4 billion or 0.02 percent of GDP (contraction by around 30-fold over the year). To compare, in 2018 the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 512.9 billion or 0.49 percent of GDP. In 2019, the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 15.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 16.3 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.5 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 16.0 billion, urban settlements’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.9 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 12.7 billion. In 2018, the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 491.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.8 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.4 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 6.7 billion, urban settlements’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.2 billion, rural settlements’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.6 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 2.7 billion |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1041&r=all |
| By: | Diamond, Rebecca (Stanford U); Guren, Adam (Boston U); Tan, Rose (Stanford U) |
| Abstract: | How costly is foreclosure? Estimates of the social cost of foreclosure typically focus on financial costs. Using random judge assignment instrumental variable (IV) and propensity score matching (PSM) approaches in Cook County, Illinois, we find evidence of significant non-pecuniary costs of foreclosure, particularly for foreclosed-upon homeowners. For all homeowners (IV and PSM), foreclosure causes housing instability, reduced homeownership, and financial distress. For marginal homeowners (IV) but not average homeowners (PSM), foreclosure also causes moves to worse neighborhoods and elevated divorce. We show that the difference between IV and PSM is due to treatment effect heterogeneity: marginal homeowners have more to lose than average homeowners. We find similar financial costs for landlords, although the non-financial effects we find for owners are absent. We find few negative effects for renters whose landlord forecloses. The contrast between our results for owners, renters, and landlords implies that the financial costs come from the financial loss while the non-financial costs for owners are due to a combination of eviction and financial loss rather than either individually. Our estimates imply that foreclosure is far more costly than current estimates imply, particularly for marginal cases that are most responsive to foreclosure mitigation policies, and that the costs are disproportionately borne by owners who lose their home. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3877&r=all |
| By: | Tong Zhang; Paul J. Burke |
| Abstract: | Understanding how traffic flows respond to fuel price changes is useful for traffic management. This study uses a dataset of 11.9 million hourly observations from 118 traffic count stations over 2010–2017 to investigate the relationship between the gasoline price and traffic flows in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce traffic flows, with an average effect size of –0.04 in the hourly estimates. The elasticity is particularly pronounced during off-peak periods, both on weekdays (–0.10) and weekends (–0.07). In contrast, a positive effect of gasoline prices on traffic flows is observed for peak periods on weekdays (0.06). Evidence is also obtained that afternoon peak-hour speeds are faster when gasoline prices are higher, consistent with a lowering of traffic density. The research also finds a negative price elasticity of gasoline demand and that people are more likely to use public transport when gasoline prices are higher. The findings suggest that fuel excise plays a role in both reducing overall road dependence and alleviating the severity of some peak-hour traffic jams. |
| Keywords: | gasoline price, traffic flow, speed, road transport, public transport |
| JEL: | R41 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-86&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, the macroeconomic indicators directly affecting the housing market were the following. The consumer price index stood at 3 percent, households’ income movement which is important for the housing market in the course of the major part of the year (after a plunge in Q1) posted positive. Over 2019 as a whole, the real disposable cash income of the population gained less than 1percent. The RF Central Bank repeatedly reduced its key rate over the course of last year hitting 6.25 percent in December 2019. Nevertheless, borrowers’ activity and the amount of housing mortgage lending (HML) was below that seen last year. According to the Bank of Russia, in 2019 Russia saw a total of 1.27 million extended mortgages to the tune of RUB 2.85 trillion against 1.47 million totaling RUB 3.01 trillion in 2018, in other words the decline came to 13.6 percent in loans-terms and 5.3 percent in volume-terms. The share of mortgage loans originated for shared-equity construction in the total volume of extended loans of all types constituted in 2019 6.6 percent against 7 percent in 2018. That said, the share of mortgages issued for shared-equity construction in the aggregate volume of solely mortgage loans went up from 28.8 to 32.4 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1063&r=all |
| By: | Janna Bergsvik (Statistics Norway); Sara Cools; Rannveig K. Hart |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure context effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other’s fertility behavior, and second, household fertility intentions and behavior may influence residential decisions. This study provides an empirical examination of these two potential causal mechanisms using the sex composition of the two firstborn children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We measure effects of the third child on three separate outcomes: mothers’ propensity to move, characteristics of their final neighborhood, and the fertility of their neighbors. Residential and childbearing histories for the years 2000-2018 are drawn from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individual neighborhoods are defined using timevarying geo-coordinates on place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of the residential clustering of fertility. The effects are relatively small, though statistically significant. This suggests that the residential clustering of fertility is also driven by factors that we effectively control for in our design – most importantly self-selection based on preferences for a family-oriented life style. Because of the difficulty to measure social interaction effects among neighbors we are reluctant to say that they do not exist, even though we do not identify them. As such, we contribute to the understanding of fertility and relocation, but also to the literature on social interaction effects in fertility by testing the relevance of yet another network, i.e. that of neighbors. |
| Keywords: | IV estimation; spatial fertility; k-nearest neighbors; family size; third births |
| JEL: | J11 J13 R20 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:939&r=all |
| By: | Galetti, Jefferson Ricardo Bretas; Tessarin, Milene Simone; Morceiro, Paulo César |
| Abstract: | There is little evidence on the relationship between occupational relatedness and regional specialisation in developing countries with high regional inequality and industrial heterogeneity. We compute local synergy, complementarity and similarity relatedness based on 2 514 occupations to estimate their effects on the occupational structure in 558 Brazilian microregions between 2003 and 2018. We find that the three indexes affect the regional specialisation in distinct magnitudes, and they have different effects in different regional and sectoral contexts. Sectoral complementarities affect structural change and strengthen similarity relatedness. The findings shed light on developing countries’ distinct regional contexts rather than ‘one-size-fits-all’ policies. |
| Keywords: | Occupational relatedness; Related variety; Regional specialisation; Developing country |
| JEL: | J21 J24 L23 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2020_012&r=all |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; William H. Hoyt; John D. Wilson |
| Abstract: | This paper critically surveys the growing literature on the policy choices of local governments. First, we identify various reasons for local government policy interactions, including fiscal competition, bidding for firms, yardstick competition, expenditure spillovers, and Tiebout sorting. We discuss theoretically what parameters should be estimated to determine the reason for competition among local governments. We emphasize how the policy outcomes emerging from this competition are affected by the presence of constraints imposed by higher-level governments. Second, we integrate theoretical and empirical analyses on the effects of fiscal decentralization on mobility, spillovers, fiscal externalities, economic outcomes, and distributional issues. Third, we identify key issues that arise in the empirical estimation of strategic interactions among local governments and highlight recent quasi-experimental evidence that has attempted to identify the mechanism at work. Finally, a synthesis model, containing multiple mechanisms and fiscal instruments, resolves some puzzles and provides guidance for future research. |
| Keywords: | fiscal competition, yardstick competition, spillovers, strategic policy, interdependence, reaction functions, local public finance |
| JEL: | H20 H40 H70 R50 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8647&r=all |
| By: | Asaf Bernstein; Stephen B. Billings; Matthew Gustafson; Ryan Lewis |
| Abstract: | Climate change partisanship is reflected in residential choice. Comparing individual occupants at properties in the same zip code with similar elevation and proximity to the coast, registered republicans (democrats) are more (less) likely than independents to own houses exposed to sea level rise (SLR). Findings are unchanged controlling flexibly for other individual demographics and a variety of granular property characteristics, including the value of the home. This sorting is driven by differential perceptions of long-run SLR risks across the political spectrum not tolerance for current flood risk or preferences for correlated coastal amenities. Observed residential sorting manifests among owners regardless of occupancy, but not among renters. We also find no residential sorting in relation to storm surge exposure, which is a primary driver of current flood risk. Anticipatory sorting on climate change informs models of migration in the face of long-run risks and suggests households that are most likely to vote against climate friendly policies and least likely to adapt may ultimately bear the burden of climate change. |
| JEL: | D10 D72 G1 Q5 Q54 R2 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27989&r=all |
| By: | Elisabeth Grewenig; Philipp Lergetporer; Katharina Werner; Ludger Woessmann; Larissa Zierow |
| Abstract: | In spring 2020, governments around the globe shut down schools to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. We argue that low-achieving students may be particularly affected by the lack of educator support during school closures. We collect detailed time-use information on students before and during the school closures in a survey of 1,099 parents in Germany. We find that while students on average reduced their daily learning time of 7.4 hours by about half, the reduction was significantly larger for low-achievers (4.1 hours) than for high-achievers (3.7 hours). Low-achievers disproportionately replaced learning time with detrimental activities such as TV or computer games rather than with activities more conducive to child development. The learning gap was not compensated by parents or schools who provided less support for low-achieving students. The reduction in learning time was not larger for children from lower-educated parents, but it was larger for boys than for girls. For policy, our findings suggest binding distance-teaching concepts particularly targeted at low-achievers. |
| Keywords: | educational inequality, COVID-19, low-achieving students, home schooling, distance teaching |
| JEL: | I24 J62 D30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8648&r=all |
| By: | Akbarpour, Mohammad (Stanford U); Cook, Cody (Stanford U); Marzuoli, Aude (Overland Park, Kansas); Mongey, Simon (U of Chicago); Nagaraj, Abhishek (U of California, Berkeley); Saccarola, Matteo (U of Chicago); Tebaldi, Pietro (U of Chicago); Vasserman, Shoshana (Stanford U); Yang, Hanbin (Harvard U) |
| Abstract: | We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak, accounting for health and economic trade-offs within the same empirical framework. We leverage a variety of data sources, including data on individuals' mobility and encounters across metropolitan areas, health records, and measures of the possibility to be productively working from home. This combination of data sources allows us to build a framework in which the severity of a disease outbreak varies across locations and industries, and across individuals who differ by age, occupation, and preexisting health conditions. We use this framework to analyze the impact of different social distancing policies in the context of the COVID-19 outbreaks across US metropolitan areas. Our results highlight how outcomes vary across areas in relation to the underlying heterogeneity in population density, social network structures, population health, and employment characteristics. We find that policies by which individuals who can work from home continue to do so, or in which schools and firms alternate schedules across different groups of students and employees, can be effective in limiting the health and healthcare costs of the pandemic outbreak while also reducing employment losses. |
| JEL: | H12 H75 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3886&r=all |
| By: | Luca, Davide; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | A growing amount of research explores how the allocation of regional development monies follows electoral reasons. Yet, the existing literature on distributive politics provides different and contrasting expectations on which geographical areas will be targeted. The paper focuses on proportional representation (PR) systems. While in such settings governments have incentives to target core districts and punish foes, it is suggested that when incumbents attempt to build a state–party image they may broaden the territorial allocation of benefits and even target opposition out-groups. The paper exploits data on Turkey's public transport investment for the period 2003–14 and in-depth interviews to provide results in support of the hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | public investment; transport infrastructure; distributive politics; politics of development; Turkey |
| JEL: | D72 H70 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100331&r=all |
| By: | Giulietti, Corrado (University of Southampton, UK); Vlassopoulos, Michael (University of Southampton, UK); Zenou, Yves (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether exposure to peer depression in adolescence affects own depression in adulthood. We find a significant long-term depression peer effect for females but not for males in a sample of U.S. adolescents who are followed into adulthood. An increase of one standard deviation of the share of own-gender peers (schoolmates) who are depressed increases the probability of depression in adulthood by 2.6 percentage points for females (or 11.5% of mean depression). We also find that the peer effect is already present in the short term when girls are still in school and provide suggestive evidence for why it persists over time. In particular, we show that peer depression negatively affects the probability of college attendance and the likelihood of working, and leads to a reduction in income of adult females. Further analysis reveals that individuals from families with a lower socioeconomic background are more susceptible to peer influence, thereby suggesting that family can function as a buffer. |
| Keywords: | Peer effects; Depression; Contagion; Gender; Family background; Adolescence; Policy |
| JEL: | I12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1364&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Botton; Patricia Urquieta |
| Abstract: | Urban drinking water services are a particularly prolific research object to think about inequalities in the city because they are by definition at the interface of economic, social and environmental problems and they invite to reflect on the sustainability of the territories.Beyond the most obvious reading of inequality of access to services (having access to the public service network or not), there are indeed a large number of other situations related to inequalities that we seek to identify and characterize in this paper, refering to the cases of Bolivian cities: spatial, vertical, horizontal inequalities, competing, intersecting inequalities, etc. This typology also allows a dynamic analysis of the local policies defined and implemented by the authorities and by the operators and the implications these policies have on the urban form. |
| Keywords: | Bolivie |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2020–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en11615&r=all |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how initial conditions that existed in East Germany at the end of the socialist regime impact regional development during the turbulent shock transition to a market economic system. Our investigation spans a period of almost 30 years. Both the self-employment rate (an indication of the existence of a pre-socialist entrepreneurial tradition) and the share of the workforce with a tertiary degree have a strong positive effect on regional development. We conclude that knowledge and a tradition of entrepreneurship have long-run positive effects on development in regions that face disruptive shocks. Entrepreneurship and knowledge play a less important role for development across West German regions, where no significant shocks occurred. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, knowledge, economic development, history, transformation, East Germany |
| JEL: | L26 R11 N93 N94 |
| Date: | 2020–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2020-017&r=all |
| By: | Robert Clark (Queen's University); Shaoteng Li |
| Abstract: | Following the crisis, macroprudential regulations targeting mortgage-market vulnerabilities were widely adopted, their success often depending on intermediaries' responses. We show that Canadian banks behaved strategically to limit the potency of recently implemented mortgage stress tests, requiring borrower qualification based on the mode of 5-year rates posted by the Big 6 banks rather than transaction rates. The government aimed to cool credit markets, but since many mortgages are government-insured, Big 6 interests were not aligned. Using DiD comparing changes in 5-year spreads with 3-year spreads, unaffected by the policy, we find rates were lowered encouraging continued borrowing, muting the tests' impact. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential regulation, credit supply, mortgage market, mortgage stress tests, rate-benchmark manipulation |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1445&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Cotton (Queen's University); Brent R. Hickman (Olin Business School, University of Washington); John List (University of Chicago); Joseph P. Price (Brigham Young University); Sutanuka Roy |
| Abstract: | We leverage a field experiment across three distinct school districts to identify key pieces of a structural model of adolescent human capital production. Our focus is inspired by the contemporary psychology of education literature, which expresses learning as a function of the ratio of the time spent on learning to the time needed to learn. By capturing two crucial student-level unobservables—which we denote as academic efficiency (turning inputs into outputs) and time preference (motivation)—our field experiment lends insights into the underpinnings of adolescent skill formation and provides a novel view of how to lessen racial and gender achievement gaps. One general insight is that students who are falling behind their peers, whether correlated to race, gender, or school district, are doing so because of academic efficiency rather than time preference. We view this result, and others found in our data, as fundamental to practitioners, academics, and policymakers interested in designing strategies to provide equal opportunities to students. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, field experiment, structural econometrics, psychology of education, learning, school districts, school quality, demographics, gender gap, racial gap |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I24 J22 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1444&r=all |
| By: | Beatriz Sofía Gil-Clavel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Valeria Bordone (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Qualitative studies have found that the use of Information and Communication Technologies is related to an enhanced quality of life for older adults, as these technologies might act as a medium to access social capital regardless of distance. In order to quantitatively study the association between older people’s characteristics and the likelihood of having a network of close friends offline and online, we use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and from Facebook. Using a novel approach to analyze aggregated and anonymous Facebook data within a regression framework, we show that the associations between having close friends and age, sex and being a parent are the same offline and online. Migrants who use internet are less likely to have close friends offline, but migrants who are Facebook users are more likely to have close friends online, suggesting that digital relationships may compensate for the potential lack of offline close friendships among older migrants. |
| Keywords: | Europe, old age, social capital, social network |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-035&r=all |
| By: | Oindrila Dey (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT)); Debalina Chakravarty (Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Calcutta) |
| Abstract: | Electric Street Car (ESC) has established itself as an ideal public transport system for urban agglomeration by offering better safety, minimum pollution and conservation of fossil fuel. Yet, India envisions going all-electric by 2030 by procuring electric buses (e-buses) rather than ESCs. The crucial question is, why not upgrade the existing ESC considering that the e-buses need a profound infrastructural development in India. This paper studies the potential uptake rate of ESC over e-buses using stratified sampling data from 1226 daily public transport commuters of Kolkata, the only Indian city having an operational ESCs. We identify the demographic, psychometric and socio-economic factors influencing the probabilistic uptake of ESC over e-buses using a random utility choice model. It estimates that 38% of the commuters demand ESC over e-buses given the alternatives’ comparative details. ESC can be a model electric public transport if there is an improvement in factors, like frequent availability of ESCs and technological upgradation. By promoting the ESC services over e-buses, the government can potentially save on public investment and reach a low carbon pathway cost-effectively. The findings have crucial implications in exploration of the operational feasibility of ESC in the small and medium-sized cities of developing economies like India. |
| Keywords: | Public Transport, Electric Bus, Electric Street Car, Sustainability, Urban Area |
| JEL: | R58 R49 Q56 Q40 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ift:wpaper:2042&r=all |
| By: | Amirapu, Amrit; Asadullah, M Niaz; Wahhaj, Zaki |
| Abstract: | Traditional gender norms can restrict independent migration by women, thus preventing them from taking advantage of economic opportunities in urban non-agricultural industries. However, women may be able to circumvent such restrictions by using marriage to engage in long-distance migration - if they are able to match with migrating grooms. Guided by a theoretical model in which women make marriage and migration decisions jointly, we hypothesize that marriage and labour markets will be inextricably linked by the possibility of marital migration. To test our hypotheses, we use the event of the construction of a major bridge in Bangladesh - which dramatically reduced travel time between the economically deprived north-western region and the manufacturing belt located around the capital city Dhaka - as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in migration costs. Our empirical ffndings support our model's main predictions and provide strong evidence for the existence of social barriers to female migration. |
| Keywords: | migration,marriage markets,female labour force participation,gender norms |
| JEL: | J12 J16 J61 O15 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:692&r=all |
| By: | Makoto Muto; Tamotsu Onozaki; Yoshitaka Saiki |
| Abstract: | Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and contractions in Europe (Grayer, 2007), the U.S. (Hamilton and Owyang, 2012; Chung, 2016), and Japan (Wall, 2007). We investigate those findings more comprehensively for Japan. We draw upon business cycle data spanning 1978-2018 for all 47 Japanese prefectures and measure synchronization between them using a method prominent in nonlinear sciences but infrequently applied in business cycle studies. Our findings confirm that synchronization in Japan's prefectural business cycles increased during contractions and decreased during expansions throughout the period studied. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.08835&r=all |
| By: | Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich; ; ; |
| Abstract: | We investigate how initial conditions that existed in East Germany at the end of the socialist regime impact regional development during the turbulent shock transition to a market economic system. Our investigation spans a period of almost 30 years. Both the self-employment rate (an indication of the existence of a pre-socialist entrepreneurial tradition) and the share of the workforce with a tertiary degree have a strong positive effect on regional development. We conclude that knowledge and a tradition of entrepreneurship have long-run positive effects on development in regions that face disruptive shocks. Entrepreneurship and knowledge play a less important role for development across West German regions, where no significant shocks occurred. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, knowledge, economic development, history, transformation, East Germany |
| JEL: | L26 R11 N93 N94 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2050&r=all |
| By: | Kristoffersson, Ida (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Berglund , Svante (WSP) |
| Abstract: | Connection trips is often an important part of long-distance travel, especially for air travel. Models of long-distance travel would therefore benefit from a more detailed representation of the connection part. In this paper it is however shown that most models of connection trips are stand-alone models not integrated with the model for main mode. A handful models that integrate connection trip modelling into a large-scale transport model for long-distance travel are found and classified into different types using a typology developed within the paper. The scarce literature on connection trip modelling within large-scale systems call for more research regarding detailed representation of access/egress mode choice and terminal choice, especially regarding the trade-off between model complexity and detailed representation. |
| Keywords: | Connection trip; Access trip; Egress trip; Access mode; Egress mode; Terminal choice; Station choice; Long-distance travel |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2020_005&r=all |
| By: | D. Mark Anderson; Kerwin Kofi Charles; Daniel I. Rees |
| Abstract: | In 1966, Southern hospitals were barred from participating in the Medicare program unless they discontinued their long-standing practice of racial segregation. Using data from five Deep South states and exploiting county-level variation in Medicare certification dates, we find that gaining access to an ostensibly integrated hospital had no effect on the Black-White infant mortality gap, although it may have discouraged small numbers of Black mothers from giving birth at home attended by a midwife. These results are consistent with descriptions of the federal hospital desegregation campaign as producing only cosmetic changes and illustrate the limits of anti-discrimination policies imposed upon reluctant actors. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 J1 N12 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27970&r=all |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, UK); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of oil supply, global economic activity, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks on state-level real housing returns of the United States (US) over the monthly period of 1975:02 to 2019:12. We find that positive economic activity shocks and oil production shocks (associated with increase and decrease in oil prices respectively) increase real hosing returns. At the same time, oil-specific consumption and inventory demand shocks raise oil prices and reduce the state-level real housing returns. Moreover, across the shocks, the strongest effect originates from the global demand shock. In addition, the degree of oil dependency (oil consumed minus oil produced as ratio of oil consumed) does not change the nature of the impact of the four oil shocks on real housing returns drastically, but the size of the effects is relatively muted under low-oil dependence, barring the case of the oil inventory demand shock. Our results have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Oil shocks, state-level real housing returns, oil dependency, local projection model, impulse response functions |
| JEL: | C23 Q41 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202096&r=all |
| By: | Lucie Letrouit (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Harris Selod (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using an urban land use model, we study the market failures associated with land tenure insecurity and information asymmetry, and analyze households' responses to mitigate tenure insecurity. When buyers and sellers of land plots can pair along trusted kinship lines whereby deception (the nondisclosure of competing claims on a land plot to a buyer) is socially penalized, information asymmetry is attenuated but overall participation in the land market is reduced. Alternatively, when owners can make land plots secure by paying to register them in a cadaster, both information asymmetry and tenure insecurity are reduced, but the registration cost limits land market participation at the periphery of the city. We compare the overall surpluses under these trust and registration models and under a hybrid version of the model that reffects the context of today's West African cities where both registration and trusted relationships are simultaneously available to residents. The analysis highlights the substitutability of trusted relationships to costly registration and predicts the gradual evolution of economies towards the socially preferable registration system if registration costs can be su ciently reduced. |
| Keywords: | Land markets,property rights,information asymmetry,informal land use,land registration,ethnic kinship |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02972462&r=all |
| By: | Alexander V. Bezrukov |
| Abstract: | In this paper it is demonstrated that the application of principal components analysis for regional cluster modelling and analysis is essential in the situations where there is significant multicollinearity among several parameters, especially when the dimensionality of regional data is measured in tens. The proposed principal components model allows for same-quality representation of the clustering of regions. In fact, the clusters become more distinctive and the apparent outliers become either more pronounced with the component model clustering or are alleviated with the respective hierarchical cluster. Thus, a five-component model was obtained and validated upon 85 regions of Russian Federation and 19 socio-economic parameters. The principal components allowed to describe approximately 75 percent of the initial parameters variation and enable further simulations upon the studied variables. The cluster analysis upon the principal components modelling enabled better exposure of regional structure and disparity in economic development in Russian Federation, consisting of four main clusters: the few-numbered highest development regions, the clusters with mid-to-high and low economic development, and the "poorest" regions. It is observable that the development in most regions relies upon resource economy, and the industrial potential as well as inter-regional infrastructural potential are not realized to their fullest, while only the wealthiest regions show highly developed economy, while the industry in other regions shows signs of stagnation which is scaled further due to the conditions entailed by economic sanctions and the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Most Russian regions are in need of additional public support and industrial development, as their capital assets potential is hampered and, while having sufficient labor resources, their donorship will increase. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.10625&r=all |
| By: | Getik, Demid; Meier, Armando N. |
| Abstract: | Adolescent mental health is key for later well-being. Yet, causal evidence on environmental drivers of adolescent mental health is scant. We study how an important classroom feature---the gender composition in compulsory-school---affects mental health. We use Swedish administrative data (N=576,285) to link variation in gender composition across classrooms within cohorts to mental health. We find that a higher share of female peers in a classroom increases the incidence of mental health diagnoses, particularly among boys. The effect persists into adulthood. Peer composition is thus an important and persistent driver of mental health. |
| Keywords: | school, gender, peer effects, mental health |
| JEL: | I12 I19 I21 I31 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2020/15&r=all |
| By: | Francesc Amat; Pablo Beramendi; Miriam Hortas-Rico; Vicente Rios |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how economic inequality shapes political participation and to what extent this relationship is moderated by political competition. In the case of Spain, the link between income inequality and turnout is negative, as expected, but rather weak, suggesting that local turnout rates do not depend exclusively on income inequality levels. We develop a theoretical model linking inequality, political competition and turnout. To test the validity of the theoretical model we derive a novel data set of inequality metrics for a sample of municipalities over the four local elections that took place between 2003 and 2015 and specify a spatial dynamic panel data model that allows us to account for serial dependence, unobserved spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Our paper reveals two Spains: one in which high inequality and high levels of political competition yield relatively lower turnout rates, and one in which high levels of inequality and low levels of political competition yield relatively higher turnout rates. In addition, our _ndings suggest that this last result might be driven by a higher budgetary use of policies targeted to low income voters. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Spatial Panels, Turnout, Income Inequality, Spanish Municipalities |
| JEL: | C1 H7 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gov:wpregi:2002&r=all |
| By: | Oshan, Taylor M. |
| Abstract: | Spatial interaction and spatial structure are foundational geographical abstractions, though there is often variation in how they are conceptualized and deployed in quantitative models. In particular, the last five decades have produced an exceptional diversity regarding the role of spatial structure within spatial interaction models. This is explored by outlining the initiation and development of the notion of spatial structure within spatial interaction modeling and critically reviewing four methodological approaches that emerged from ongoing debate about the topic. The outcome is a comprehensive coverage of the past and a sketch of one potential path forward for advancing this longstanding inquiry. |
| Date: | 2020–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:42vxn&r=all |
| By: | Jason Brown; Colton Tousey |
| Abstract: | The number of U.S. coal-fired power plants declined by nearly 250 between 2001 and 2018. Given that burning coal generates large amounts of particulate matter, which is known to have adverse health effects, the closure of a coal-fired power plant should improve local air quality. Using spatial panel data from air quality monitor stations and coal-fired power plants, we estimate the relationship between plant closure and local air quality. We find that on average, the levels of particulate matter within 25 and 50 mile buffers around air quality monitors declined between 7 and 14 percent with each closure. We estimate that closure is associated with a 0.6 percent decline in local mortality probabilities. In terms of the value of a statistical life, the median local benefit of a coal power plant closure has ranged between $1 and $4 billion or 5 to 15 percent of local GDP since the early 2000s. |
| Keywords: | Air quality; Coal; Plant closures |
| JEL: | Q35 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:88947&r=all |
| By: | Upendram, Sreedhar; Wilson, Brad; Baxter, Isabella |
| Abstract: | Digital divide is defined as the gap between underserved communities that have poor or limited internet access and the communities that have relatively better access to broadband internet (25 megabits per second download/3 megabits per second upload speeds). While the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) claims that broadband internet is not available to 24.7 million people in the United States, data from Microsoft indicates that 162.8 million people (almost half of the population of the United States) do not use internet at broadband speeds (Hegle and Wilding, 2019). Broadband internet is still out of reach for many communities in Tennessee, with only 53.4 percent of residents adopting broadband in 2019 (FCC, 2019). With the shift to digital technology and widespread applications, access to broadband internet has become critical for economic development, specifically for education, work force, health care and recreation. Impacts of the digital divide have been broadly highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Where possible, employees have shifted to working at home. Similarly, K-12 schools, colleges and universities are offering classes online, and many residents are increasingly choosing online methods to order retail goods and services. Additionally, people need broadband internet to access up-to-date health care, prescriptions and health services information about COVID-19 from news and media outlets, as well as the state and federal government. The purpose of this publication is to inform Extension agents, local government leaders and economic development professionals about the digital divide, the relative measures of socioeconomic status and broadband infrastructure across Tennessee. This publication is to be used in conjunction with the county digital divide index profiles available at https://utextensionced.tennessee.edu/dig ital-divide-index/. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Public Economics, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2020–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:307220&r=all |
| By: | Müller, Dagmar (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN),) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I study the importance of market work during high school for graduates’ school-towork transition and career prospects. Relying on Swedish linked employer-employee data over a 30-year period, I show that market work during school provides students with an important job search channel, accounting for 30 percent of direct transitions into regular employment. I use the fact that some graduates are deprived of this channel due to establishment closures just prior to graduation and labor market entry. I compare classmates from vocational tracks with the same field of specialization to identify the effects of the closures and show that lost job-finding opportunities due to an establishment closure lead to an immediate and sizable negative effect on employment after graduation. The lost employer connection have also persistent, but diminishing negative effects on employment and earnings for up to 10 years, but are not permanent. Parts of the effect appear to be driven by a process where graduates who are subject to a closure of a relevant employer before graduation have to find employment in an industry which is less relevant to their education. |
| Keywords: | social contacts; young workers |
| JEL: | J01 |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2020_017&r=all |
| By: | Kristoffersson, Ida (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Daly, Andrew (University of Leeds); Algers, Staffan (TPMod); Svalgård-Jarcem, Stehn (WSP Advisory) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that travel cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial, even within a given mode, and we discuss why it is likely to increase further in the future. Thus, the current praxis in large-scale models to set one single travel cost for a combination of origin, destination, mode, and purpose, has potential for improvement. To tackle this issue, we develop ways of accounting for cost variation in model estimation and forecasting. For public transport, two methods are developed, where the first method focuses on improving the average fare, whereas the second method incorporates a submodel for choice of fare alternative within a demand model structure. Only the second method is consistent with random utility theory. For car, cost variation is related to long run decisions such as car type choice and employment location. Handling car cost variation therefore implies considering car type choice and workplace choice rather than different options related to a specific trip. These long-term choices can be considered using a car fleet model. |
| Keywords: | Long-distance travel; Travel cost; Travel fare; Large-scale model; Demand model |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2020_006&r=all |
| By: | Neis, Doug; Rachar, Paul; Nixon, Daryl |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf32:306085&r=all |
| By: | Hunt Allcott; Levi Boxell; Jacob C. Conway; Billy A. Ferguson; Matthew Gentzkow; Benny Goldman |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the drivers of the early US coronavirus pandemic. We combine an epidemiological model of disease transmission with quasi-random variation arising from the timing of stay-at-home orders to estimate the causal roles of policy interventions and voluntary social distancing. We then relate the residual variation in disease transmission rates to observable features of cities. We estimate significant impacts of policy and social distancing responses, but we show that the magnitude of policy effects is modest, and most social distancing is driven by voluntary responses. Moreover, we show that neither policy nor rates of voluntary social distancing explain a meaningful share of geographic variation. The most important predictors of which cities were hardest hit by the pandemic are exogenous characteristics such as population and density. |
| JEL: | H7 H79 I1 I12 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27965&r=all |
| By: | Alfa, Attahiru Sule; Heads, Jonathan |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf21:305981&r=all |
| By: | Bassett, Ray; Rosko, Garry |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf21:305962&r=all |
| By: | Christina Gravert; Linus Olsson Collentine |
| Abstract: | In three large-scale field experiments with over 32,500 individuals, we investigate whether public transport uptake can be influenced by behavioral interventions and by economic incentives. Despite their effectiveness in other domains, we find a tightly estimated zero for social norms and implementation intentions on ridership. Increasing the economic incentive significantly increases uptake and long-term usage. This increase is sustained for months after removing the incentive. The effect is mainly driven by initial low users, which is evidence for habit formation and highlights the heterogeneous effects of the policy. While there is scope for long-term behavior change, nudging might not be the right approach. |
| Keywords: | transport, nudging, field experiment, habit formation |
| JEL: | C93 D04 D91 L91 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8617&r=all |