|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Zhimin Li; Leslie Sheng Shen; Calvin Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of foreign real estate capital flows on local asset prices and employment using detailed housing transactions data. We document (i) a "China shock" in the U.S. real estate market after 2007 driven by the Chinese government's house purchase restrictions and (ii) "home bias" in foreign Chinese housing purchases in the United States as they are concentrated in ZIP codes historically populated by ethnic Chinese. Exploiting the quasi-random temporal and spatial variation of real estate capital inflows from China, we find that foreign Chinese housing purchases have a positive and significant effect on local housing and labor markets. A one standard deviation increase in exposure to these purchases explains 24% and 18% of the cross-ZIP-code variation in local house prices and employment, respectively, with the employment effect transmitted through a housing net worth channel. We also show that these purchases drive out lower-income residents. Our results highlight the role of foreign real estate capital flows in both stimulating the real economy and inducing gentrification in local economies. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; House price; Employment; China shock |
| JEL: | E20 F61 J21 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1286&r=all |
| By: | Lisa Taruttis; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen)) |
| Abstract: | The German government aims at a climate-neutral building stock by 2050 to reach the goals defined in the Climate Action Plan 2050. Increasing the energy efficiency of existing buildings is therefore a high priority. For this purpose, investments of private homeowners will play a major role since about 46.5% of the German dwellings are owner-occupied. To identify potential monetary benefits of investing in energetic retrofits, we investigate whether energy efficiency is reflected in property values of single-family houses in Germany. Thereby we examine possible heterogeneous effects among regions. With 455,413 individual observations on a 1km²-grid level for 2014 to 2018, this study adds to the literature 1) by examining the effect of energy efficiency on housing values for Germany on a more small-scale level and specifically investigating regional disparities in this context and 2) by estimating an energy efficiency value-to-cost ratio. Applying a hedonic analysis, we find a positive relationship between energy efficiency and asking prices. We also find evidence for regional disparities. Effects are significantly weaker in large cities compared to other urban areas, whereas the impact in rural areas is much stronger. Since property values are expected to decline in rural regions, homeowners could alleviate this development by increasing the energy efficiency of their dwellings. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency, residential buildings, regional disparities, German housing market, hedonic analysis, housing value |
| JEL: | C31 Q40 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2004&r=all |
| By: | KONDO Keisuke; OKUBO Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates urban policy on revitalization in city centers focusing on the Japanese service sector. Many Japanese cities have experienced a decline in population and economic activity in city centers. The 2006 Amended Act on Vitalization in City Centers shows a renewed effort toward city center revitalization. Local governments that applied for the related subsidies have implemented policies in targeted areas (generally, the area surrounding the main train station) to attract residents and employment from the suburbs and to revitalize economic activity. Using matching difference-in-differences estimations, this study finds that revitalization policies have improved the economic performance of service establishments only in city centers of regional core cities, but finds no evidence of similar effects in regional non-core cities. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20050&r=all |
| By: | Joseph A. Benitez; Charles J. Courtemanche; Aaron Yelowitz |
| Abstract: | As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand fatalities in the United States, with starkly different incidence by race and ethnicity. Our study examines racial and ethnic disparities in confirmed COVID-19 cases across six diverse cities – Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, New York City, San Diego, and St. Louis – at the ZIP code level (covering 436 “neighborhoods” with a population of 17.7 million). Our analysis links these outcomes to six separate data sources to control for demographics; housing; socioeconomic status; occupation; transportation modes; health care access; long-run opportunity, as measured by income mobility and incarceration rates; human mobility; and underlying population health. We find that the proportions of black and Hispanic residents in a ZIP code are both positively and statistically significantly associated with COVID-19 cases per capita. The magnitudes are sizeable for both black and Hispanic, but even larger for Hispanic. Although some of these disparities can be explained by differences in long-run opportunity, human mobility, and demographics, most of the disparities remain unexplained even after including an extensive list of covariates related to possible mechanisms. For two cities – Chicago and New York – we also examine COVID-19 fatalities, finding that differences in confirmed COVID-19 cases explain the majority of the observed disparities in fatalities. In other words, the higher death toll of COVID-19 in predominantly black and Hispanic communities mostly reflects higher case rates, rather than higher fatality rates for confirmed cases. |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27592&r=all |
| By: | Sitian Liu; Yichen Su |
| Abstract: | Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value of access to consumption amenities. Neighborhoods with high pre-COVID-19 home prices also see a greater drop in housing demand. While the national housing market partially recovered in June, we show that the negative effect of the pandemic on the demand for density persists, indicating that the change in the demand for density may last beyond an aggregate recovery of housing demand. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Housing; Density; Amenity; Location; City; Telework; Neighborhood; Pandemic |
| JEL: | I1 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2020–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:88597&r=all |
| By: | Renato Schwambach Vieira; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we combine data from Uber Movement and from a representative household travel survey to constructs a weighted travel time index for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The index is calculated based on the average travel time of Uber trips taken between each pair of traffic zone and in each hour between January 1st, 2016 to December 31, 2018. The index is weighted based on the travel patterns reported in a representative household travel survey, thus the results reflect average congestion levels faced by individuals in the city. We show that the index has a strong correlation with traditional measures of congestion, however, it has a broader coverage of the road network. Finally, we run two analyses using the index: 1) we evaluate the trends of traffic congestion between 2016 and 2018, showing a significant decline in average time spent in traffic; 2) We analyze the effect of different events on traffic congestion in the city, including holidays, public transit strikes, road shutdowns, rain and Major sport events. |
| Keywords: | Traffic Congestion; Travel Time Index; E-Hailing Data |
| JEL: | R41 D62 C43 |
| Date: | 2020–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2020wpecon15&r=all |
| By: | Tomaso Duso; Claus Michelsen; Maximilian Schäfer; Kevin Ducbao Tran |
| Abstract: | Cities worldwide have regulated peer-to-peer short-term rental platforms claiming that those platforms remove apartments from the long-term housing market, causing an in- crease in rents. Establishing and quantifying such a causal link is, however, challenging. We investigate two policy changes in Berlin to first assess how effective they were in regulating Airbnb, the largest online peer-to-peer short-term rental platform. We document that the policy changes reduced the number of entire homes listed on Airbnb substantially, by eight to ten listings per square kilometer. In particular the introduction of limitations on the misuse of regular rental apartments as short-term accommodations, also strongly reduced the average number of days per year that Airbnb listings are available for booking. In a second step, we then use this policy-induced change in Airbnb supply to assess the impact of Airbnb on rents in the city. Our results suggest that each nearby apartment on Airbnb increases average monthly rents by at least seven cents per square meter. This effect is larger for Airbnb listings that are available for rent for a larger part of the year. Further analyses suggest some effect heterogeneity across the city. In particular, areas with lower Airbnb density tend to be affected more by additional Airbnb listings. |
| Keywords: | Rents, housing market, short-term rental regulation, sharing economy, Airbnb |
| JEL: | R21 R31 R52 Z30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1890&r=all |
| By: | Piera Bello (Istituto di economia politica (IDEP), Facoltà di scienze economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of driving on air quality and road safety by exploiting exogenous variation in traffic flows associated with the Swiss franc’s appreciation. During the Swiss franc’s appreciation, the volume of cars crossing the Swiss-Italian border rose considerably– the higher purchasing power of Swiss francs in the Euro area induced more Italian workers to cross the border daily to work in Switzerland and increased the propensity for Swiss consumers to shop abroad (Bello, 2019). By using hourly data on traffic flows, road accidents, and air pollution, I show that the higher mobility across the border increased the concentration of oxides of nitrogen at peak hours during working days and the risk of road traffic accidents with personal injuries at late morning on non-working days. The elasticity to the the number of cars of both variables of interest turns out to be larger than 1, providing evidence of a harmful externality. This suggests the need for programmes that treat traffic congestion, air quality, and road safety jointly. Moreover, the existence of an externality has important implications for optimal road use pricing. |
| Keywords: | safety and accidents, air pollution, traffic, geographic labor mobility, cross-border shopping, exchange rate |
| JEL: | Q53 R41 J61 D12 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpidep:2001&r=all |
| By: | Barros Antunes Campos, Rodger; Azzoni, Carlos Roberto (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the intra-urban wage premium and its attenuation with distance from a balanced panel of workers in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region in the period 2002–2014, dispersed in a fine grid of 1km x 1km cells. We do not determine exogenously central business centers (CBD) or sub-centers (SBD), but estimate the wage premium for each cell and for two layers of surrounding cells. Based on the wage premium estimated in these three layers, we were able to estimate the attenuation effect. This way of estimating the wage premium and its attenuation in space is novel to the literature. We estimate POLS and Fixed Effects specifications to illustrate how the sorting of workers and firms is powerful in biasing the estimated coefficients. Since sorting might be present even after the introduction of fixed effects of worker, firm, cell, sector-cell and matches firm-worker-cell, we run a 2SLS-IV model. We instrumentalize employment in the cells by the additional constructed area for business and housing purposes, lagged by 7 years. Even after controlling for those time-constant effects, our instrumental variable estimation provides evidence of an intra-urban wage premium and its non-isotropic agglomeration effects. The estimated premium is larger by multiples of the POLS or Fixed Effects estimations. The magnitude of the effects is economically relevant: the introduction of 100,000 additional workers in the inner cell produces a 1.78% increase in wages in that cell. The effects on the surrounding cells are negative and much larger than in other forms of estimation that do not correct for endogeneity. The heterogeneity analysis revealed that educated workers benefit the most from the increased interaction possibilities given by concentration and they are less affected when located in the surrounding cells. |
| Keywords: | urban economics; labor market; wage premium; panel data; 2SLS; IV; POLS; fixed effects; Sao Paulo |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2019_004&r=all |
| By: | Andrey Pushkarev (Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University); Natalia Davidson (Ural Federal University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyzes the effect of spatial concentration of economic activities on enterprise productivity, using Russian firm-level data. Panel data allows us to control for endogeneity biases associated with estimation of agglomeration economies, using fixed effects method. Our results show that Russian firms benefit from the share of similar enterprises in the total city revenue and urbanization, also that these advantages differ by city type. We also find a lack of connection between the level of wages and the revenues of firms for cities within agglomerations (while for other types of cities this effect is significant and positive). We assume that this is primarily due to the role of the agglomeration center, which determines the level of wages in all cities of the agglomeration. The results show that for the optimal development of territories it is necessary to pursue a diversified regional policy. |
| Keywords: | spatial concentration, localization, urbanization, home market potential, Russian cities |
| JEL: | D24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:10913084&r=all |
| By: | Monica Azqueta-Gavaldon; Gonzalo Azqueta-Gavaldon; Inigo Azqueta-Gavaldon; Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon |
| Abstract: | This project aims at creating an investment device to help investors determine which real estate units have a higher return to investment in Madrid. To do so, we gather data from Idealista.com, a real estate web-page with millions of real estate units across Spain, Italy and Portugal. In this preliminary version, we present the road map on how we gather the data; descriptive statistics of the 8,121 real estate units gathered (rental and sale); build a return index based on the difference in prices of rental and sale units(per neighbourhood and size) and introduce machine learning algorithms for rental real estate price prediction. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.02629&r=all |
| By: | Carozzi, Felipe; Repetto, Luca |
| Abstract: | We study distributive politics inside cities by analysing how local governments allocate investment projects to voters across neighbourhoods. In particular, we ask whether politicians use investment to target their own supporters. To this aim, we use detailed geo-located investment data from Plan E, a large fiscal stimulus program carried out in Spain in 2009–2011. Our main empirical strategy is based on a close-elections regression-discontinuity design. In contrast to previous studies – which use aggregate data at the district or municipal level – we exploit spatial variation in both investment and voter support within municipalities and find no evidence of supporter targeting. Complementary results indicate that voters may be responding to investment by increasing turnout. |
| Keywords: | political economy; distributive Politics; partisan alignment; local governments |
| JEL: | H70 R53 D72 |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100057&r=all |
| By: | Barros Antunes Campos, Rodger; Squarize Chagas, André Luis (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | Theoretical models concerned with multiple centers were brought into the debate on sprawling urban employment. However, empirical methods that identify central places are not a specific aspect in the specialized literature. Then, the purpose of this paper is to identify and characterize the urban employment subcenters (Small Business Districts, SBD) in the Municipality of São Paulo by using a new methodology approach. We propose a two-step methodology: 1) Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and 2) Spatial Hedonic Prices Model. As a result, we found seven regions that can be considered SBD. These regions are able to impact housing prices as predicted by polycentric theoretical models. |
| Keywords: | urban economics; center business district (CBD); subcenter business district (SBD); spatial econometrics |
| JEL: | C21 R23 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2019_005&r=all |
| By: | Guillaume Monchambert (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2, Université de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Long-distance carpooling is an emerging mode in France and Europe, but little is known about monetary values of this mode attributes in transport economics. We conducted a discrete choice experiment to identify and measure the values of attributes of long-distance transport modes for a trip as a driver and as a passenger, with a special focus on carpooling. Around 1.700 French individuals have been surveyed. We use discrete mixed logit models to estimate the probability of mode choice. We find that the value of travel time for a driver who carpools is on average 13% higher than the value of travel time when driving alone in his/her car. The average value of travel time for a carpool trip as passenger is around 26 euros per hour, 60% higher than for a train trip and 20% higher than for a bus trip. Moreover, our study confirms a strong preference for driving solo over taking carpoolers in one's car. We also show that individuals traveling as carpool passenger incur a "discomfort" cost of on average 4.5 euros per extra passenger in the same vehicle. Finally, we identify robust socioeconomic effects affecting the probability of carpooling, especially gender effects. When they drive a car, females are less likely to carpool than male, but they prefer to carpool two passengers over only one passenger. |
| Keywords: | Value of time,Long-distance,Carpooling,Discrete choice experiment |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02121589&r=all |
| By: | Susan Athey; Billy A. Ferguson; Matthew Gentzkow; Tobias Schmidt |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel measure of segregation, experienced isolation, that captures individuals’ exposure to diverse others in the places they visit over the course of their days. Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected from smartphones, we measure experienced isolation by race. We find that the isolation individuals experience is substantially lower than standard residential isolation measures would suggest, but that experienced and residential isolation are highly correlated across cities. Experienced isolation is lower relative to residential isolation in denser, wealthier, more educated cities with high levels of public transit use, and is also negatively correlated with income mobility. |
| JEL: | J15 R0 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27572&r=all |
| By: | Zheng Li (Department of Economics, Georgia State University, USA); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | Misallocation of factors of production has been recently viewed as a promising explanation accounting for the large difference in total factor productivity (TFP) across countries. This paper differs from previous studies by concentrating on interregional capital misallocation and by focusing on the role of fiscal decentralization in shaping misallocation. Using a city-level panel data set, we measure intra-provincial and inter-municipal capital misallocation in China over 2003-18. The empirical results based on provincial-level panel data suggest that fiscal decentralization can lower inter-municipal capital misallocation while revenue decentralization performs better than expenditure decentralization. We further find that this positive effect is more significant and much larger when the market rather than government intervention is driving the flow of capital. The results are robust to subsample regressions, IV estimations, spatial autoregressions and alternative measurement of interregional misallocation. Our study complements the literature on the causes of misallocation and enriches the understanding of the consequences of fiscal decentralization, especially in terms of economic growth and interregional inequality. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2014&r=all |
| By: | Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro |
| Abstract: | We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents’ movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model with respect to these variables do not hold when agents interact with neighbors in a (two dimensional) geographical space. Indeed, the local interactions arising in the spatial model give rise to matching frictions and local herd immunity effects which play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the infection. We also show that geographical factors affect how behavioral responses affect the epidemics. We derive relevant implications for the estimation of epidemiological models with panel data from several geographical units. |
| JEL: | D01 I12 R10 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27590&r=all |
| By: | Squarize Chagas, André Luis (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Malvezzi Rocha, Guilherme (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | Housing policies to improve the quality of life of the poorest have been employed for a long time. In developing countries urbanization has increased the number of slums, supporting the creation of housing programs, like Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) program, launched in 2009 in Brazil. The program intend to provide better housing conditions to poor family. To reduce the construction cost the houses are built in surround area of the cities, far from business center. In this paper, we took advantage of a randomly selection of families in Rio de Janeiro (one of the most important cities in Brazil) and São José do Rio Preto cities (a big city in the countryside of São Paulo state, Brazil) to evaluate the it impact on social conditions, mainly related to the employment and income. By combining two administrative databases we were able to measure the changes in the labor market for both groups, drawn and not drawn. The frst conclusion is even with a random selection criteria, as the lottery, the program badly selected the benefciary families, benefting only one least linked to the labor market. Individuals with better job conditions choose remains the current house, independently of it structural condition or the neighborhood. To the benefciary, the program negatively affects the labor supply, reducing the likelihood that the benefciary will be formally employed. Also, the program increased the proportion of families receiving the cash income transfer. This work is one of the frst articles to analyze microdata from MCMV, providing an important measure of the program’s impact. |
| Keywords: | housing policy; labor market; Minha Casa Minha Vida |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2019_011&r=all |
| By: | SAITO Yukiko; KAINUMA Shuhei; Michal FABINGER |
| Abstract: | How does import from China affect local labor markets in Japan? We examine this question using commuting zones as regional units, incorporating shock propagation through supply chains, as well as co-agglomeration patterns. Applying the method proposed by Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013) and Acemoglu, et al. (2016), we investigate the impact on regional manufacturing employment. Employing the input-output table allows us to analyse how the shocks propagate to upstream/downstream industries and how regional impact is related to co-agglomeration patterns. We find that the negative direct effect on local employment is underestimated in previous studies that do not consider regional propagation of the shock through supply chains, especially the positive shock to downstream industries. Downstream industries significantly benefit from imports from China due to low input prices, which increases local employment. We find no significant impact on upstream industries. Our results imply that the direct effect on local labor markets is weakened by effects on downstream industries within the same region. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20054&r=all |
| By: | von Berlepsch, Viola; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the twentieth century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories. |
| Keywords: | internal migration; distance; long-term; economic development; counties; US |
| JEL: | J61 N11 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91716&r=all |
| By: | Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The theories of growth poles and clusters occupy a prominent position in the debate of regional development and underdevelopment. This article aims to identify focal points of the concept of growth poles and the analytical model of clusters by trying to distinguish differences as well as prospects for future analytical convergence based on recent developments in the field of spatial socio-economic sciences. To achieve this goal, we classify about ten foundational publications and another ten recent contributions to growth poles, along with corresponding publications on the clusters concept. We analyse the evolution of the theoretical perspective and recent developments of growth poles theory and practice in conjunction with the most disseminated ideas of the clusters concept and recent theoretical trends. Some of the main findings are that growth poles remain within the boundaries of economic geography, while clusters/industrial districts withhold a multidisciplinary perspective. Clusters analyses are heading towards a growing study of micro-dynamics, which is not the case in the growth poles, which are limited to the meso domain of analysis (industry, region). These observations help to figure out whether there are opportunities and possibilities for synthesising these two analytical perspectives. |
| Keywords: | growth poles; clusters; socio-economic development; spatial sciences; micro-level analysis |
| JEL: | O19 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2019_030&r=all |
| By: | Orla Doyle |
| Abstract: | Evidence on the sustained effect of early intervention is inconclusive, with many studies experiencing a dissolution of treatment effects once the program ends. Using a randomized trial, this paper examines the impact of Preparing for Life (PFL), a pregnancy to age five home visiting and parenting program, on outcomes in middle childhood. We find little evidence of cognitive fade-out at age nine, with significant treatment effects on cognitive skills (0.67SD) and school achievement tests (0.47-0.74SD) that are of a similar magnitude to those observed at the end of the program. There is no impact on other school outcomes and earlier effects for socio-emotional skills are no longer evident. While about 50 percent of the sample is retained at age nine, the treatment groups are still balanced on all key baseline characteristics and the results are robust to inverse probability weighting. Mediation analysis suggests that ~46 percent of the treatment effect on cognitive skills is explained by improvements in early parental investment. This study demonstrates that boosting children’s early cognitive skills can reduce school-age inequalities five years after program completion, yet continued investment may be needed to break long-standing inequalities in other dimensions of skills. |
| Keywords: | Early childhood intervention; Cognitive skills; Socio-emotional and behavioral skills; Randomized control trial; School-age inequalities |
| JEL: | C93 D13 I26 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202008&r=all |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Hardy, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the divergent economic trajectories of Barcelona and Madrid since Spain's transition to democracy. It highlights how Barcelona, the city that was better positioned four decades ago to emerge as the main Spanish economic hub, has lost out to Madrid. We argue that the contrasting trajectories of the two cities have less to do with the pull of Madrid as the capital of Spain, with the development of new infrastructure in the country, or with agglomeration economies, and more with institutional factors. A growing societal divide in Barcelona along economic, social, and identity lines has led to a greater breakdown of trust and to the development of strong groups with limited capacity to bridge with one another than in Madrid. This has entailed the emergence of negative externalities that have limited the economic potential for growth in Barcelona and facilitated the rise of Madrid as the main economic hub within Spain. |
| Keywords: | Wiley |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105772&r=all |
| By: | Vasil Yasenov; David Hausman; Michael Hotard; Duncan Lawrence; Alexandra Siegel; Jessica S. Wolff; David D. Laitin; Jens Hainmueller |
| Abstract: | Immigration legal services providers (ISPs) are a principal source of support for low-income immigrants seeking immigration benefits. Yet there is scant quantitative evidence on the prevalence and geographic distribution of ISPs in the United States. To fill this gap, we construct a comprehensive, nationwide database of 2,138 geocoded ISP offices that offer low- or no-cost legal services to low-income immigrants. We use spatial optimization methods to analyze the geographic network of ISPs and measure ISPs' proximity to the low-income immigrant population. Because both ISPs and immigrants are highly concentrated in major urban areas, most low-income immigrants live close to an ISP. However, we also find a sizable fraction of low-income immigrants in underserved areas, which are primarily in midsize cities in the South. This reflects both a general skew in non-governmental organization service provision and the more recent arrival of immigrants in these largely Southern destinations. Finally, our optimization analysis suggests significant gains from placing new ISPs in underserved areas to maximize the number of low-income immigrants who live near an ISP. Overall, our results provide vital information to immigrants, funders, and policymakers about the current state of the ISP network and opportunities to improve it. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.02230&r=all |
| By: | Daniel L. Mendoza (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA; Department of City & Metropolitan Planning, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Tabitha M. Benney (Department of Political Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Rajive Ganguli (Department of Mining Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Rambabu Pothina (Department of Mining Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Benjamin Krick (Department of Political Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Cheryl S. Pirozzi (Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA); Erik T. Crosman (Department of Life, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, West Texas A&M University, Canyon, Texas USA); Yue Zhang (Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah USA) |
| Abstract: | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented policies to curb the spread of the novel virus. Little is known about how these policies impact various groups in society. This paper explores the relationship between social distancing policies, traffic volumes and air quality and how they impact various socioeconomic groups. This study aims to understand how disparate communities respond to Stay-at-Home Orders and other social distancing policies to understand how human behavior in response to policy may play a part in the prevalence of COVID-19 positive cases. We collected data on traffic density, air quality, socio-economic status, and positive cases rates of COVID-19 for each zip code of Salt Lake County, Utah (USA) between February 17 and June 12, 2020. We studied the impact of social distancing policies across three periods of policy implementation. We found that wealthier and whiter zip codes experienced a greater reduction in traffic and air pollution during the Stay-at-Home period. However, air quality did not necessarily follow traffic volumes in every case due to the complexity of interactions between emissions and meteorology. We also found a strong relationship between lower socioeconomic status and positive COVID-19 rates. This study provides initial evidence for social distancing's effectiveness in limiting the spread of COVID-19, while providing insight into how socioeconomic status has compounded vulnerability during this crisis. Behavior restrictions disproportionately benefit whiter and wealthier communities both through protection from spread of COVID-19 and reduction in air pollution. Such findings may be further compounded by the impacts of air pollution, which likely exacerbate COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates. Policy makers need to consider adapting social distancing policies to maximize equity in health protection. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.01828&r=all |
| By: | Zölitz, Ulf (University of Zurich); Feld, Jan (Victoria University of Wellington) |
| Abstract: | Business degrees are popular and lead to high earnings. Female business graduates, however, earn less than their male counterparts. These gender differences can be traced back to university, where women shy away from majors like finance that lead to high earnings. In this paper, we investigate how the gender composition of peers in business school affects women's and men's major choices and labor market outcomes. We find that women who are randomly assigned to teaching sections with more female peers become less likely to choose male-dominated majors like finance and more likely to choose female-dominated majors like marketing. After graduation, these women end up in jobs where their earnings grow more slowly. Men, on the other hand, become more likely to choose male-dominated majors and less likely to choose female-dominated majors when they had more female peers in business school. However, men's labor market outcomes are not significantly affected. Taken together, our results show that studying with more female peers in business school increases gender segregation in educational choice and affects labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | gender composition, major choice, peer effects |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13396&r=all |
| By: | Ye Chen (Singapore Management University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Shuping Shi (Macquarie University) |
| Abstract: | Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The explosive and stationary factors model latent forces that underlie the formation and destruction of asset price bubbles, which typically exist only for subperiods of the sample. The paper provides an algorithm for testing the presence of and date-stamping the origination and termination of price bubbles determined by latent factors in a large-dimensional system embodying many markets. Asymptotics of the bubble test statistic are given under the null of no common bubbles and the alternative of a common bubble across these markets. We prove consistency of a factor bubble detection process for the origination and termination dates of the common bubble. Simulations show good finite sample performance of the testing algorithm in terms of its successful detection rates. Our methods are applied to real estate markets covering 89 major cities in China over the period January 2003 to March 2013. Results suggest the presence of three common bubble episodes in what are known as China's Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities over the sample period. There appears to be little evidence of a common bubble in Tier 3 cities. |
| Keywords: | Common Bubbles, Mildly Explosive Process, Factor Analysis, Date Stamping, Real Estate Market |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C58 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2251&r=all |
| By: | Michael Gilraine; Hugh Macartney; Robert McMillan |
| Abstract: | We propose an approach for credibly estimating indirect sorting effects of major education reforms and placing them alongside the reforms’ direct and persistent effects for the first time. Applying our approach to California’s state-wide class size reduction program, we estimate a large positive direct effect of smaller classes on test scores and an even larger indirect effect due to demographic changes as private school students switch into public schools; both effects also persist. Accounting for sorting using these estimates raises the program’s benefit-cost ratio significantly. Further, our analysis indicates that indirect sorting is likely relevant in policy evaluations more generally. |
| Keywords: | Education Reform, Direct Effects, Indirect Effects, Sorting, Education Production, Class Size Reduction, Persistence, Differencing, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | H40 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2020–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-673&r=all |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study explores how the traditional approaches of perceiving competitiveness and industrial policy could be enriched through a synthetic and evolutionary perspective. Competitiveness, in particular, tends to be studied in the literature in a relatively fragmented way, focusing either on the level of individual nations, or on the sectors of economic activity, or on the firm level. As a result, the evolutionary structures that define competitiveness in a unified socioeconomic way are usually bypassed. In this context, the traditional approach to industrial policy-making, which has as sole objective the strengthening of specific sectors, is inadequate to enhance the multilevel socioeconomic competitiveness in our days. Therefore, we suggest a comprehensive re-positioning of the concept of "organic competitiveness" in overall and synthetic socioeconomic terms (firms-sectors-socioeconomic systems) as useful for a redirected modern industrial policy. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness; Industrial policy; Evolutionary link between competitiveness and industrial policy; Globalization |
| JEL: | B52 F63 L52 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2019_011&r=all |
| By: | Bhattacharjee, A.; Ditzen, J.; Holly, S. |
| Abstract: | We provide a way of representing spatial and temporal equilibria in terms of a Engle-Granger representation theorem in a panel setting. We use the mean group, common correlated effects estimator plus multiple testing to provide a set of weakly cross correlated correlations that we treat as spatial weights. We apply this model to the 324 local authorities of England, and show that our approach successfully mops up weak cross section correlations as well as strong cross sectional correlations. |
| Keywords: | Spatio-temporal Engle-Granger Theorems, cross sectional dependence |
| JEL: | C21 C22 C23 R3 |
| Date: | 2020–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2075&r=all |
| By: | ITO Tadashi; OKAMOTO Chigusa; SAITO Yukiko |
| Abstract: | Using establishment-level data in Japan, this paper analyzes the role of information and geographical location of establishments, and the location of wholesalers' headquarters and establishments as factors in determining export behavior, especially focusing on regional economies. There are two main findings. First, regarding export probability of wholesalers' establishments, whether headquarters are located in urban areas matters more than the location of the establishments themselves; and the export probability is higher when there are other exporting establishments within the same firm, which suggest that information (exporting know-how held by headquarters and other export establishments within the same firm) is more important than infrastructure (access to trade hubs such as ports). Second, regarding domestic transaction networks between wholesalers and manufacturers, manufacturing firms in rural areas sell to exporting wholesaler firms in distant urban areas for indirect export, but the transaction distance measured between the closest establishments is significantly shorter than the distance between headquarters, at approximately one-third to one-quarter. The number of establishments per wholesaler firm is much larger than that of manufacturers and the distance between establishment and headquarters for wholesalers is much larger than that for manufacturers, which suggests that exporting wholesaler firms in urban areas reduce search costs by setting up other establishments in various regions, from which they search for suppliers. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20056&r=all |
| By: | Cai, Zhengyu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates why the strong form of the spatial equilibrium is weakly supported in the literature. Using a discrete choice model, it shows that the strong form of the spatial equilibrium is rarely observed because workers are imperfectly mobile from the perspective of researchers. Incorporating the discrete choice model, a Markov chain is used to model the spatial dynamics of the population distribution. For a given location choice set, the population distribution is shown to converge to a unique spatial steady state. Microdata from the American Community Survey show that the model assumption is reasonable and support the model predictions. |
| Keywords: | imperfect mobility,heterogeneity,spatial steady state,discrete choice model,Markov chain analysis |
| JEL: | J61 R10 C25 C15 C44 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:623&r=all |
| By: | M. Keith Chen; Judith A. Chevalier; Elisa F. Long |
| Abstract: | Nursing homes and other long term-care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and fatalities worldwide. Outbreaks in U.S. nursing homes have persisted despite nationwide visitor restrictions beginning in mid-March. An early report issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identified staff members working in multiple nursing homes as a likely source of spread from the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington to other skilled nursing facilities. The full extent of staff connections between nursing homes---and the crucial role these connections serve in spreading a highly contagious respiratory infection---is currently unknown given the lack of centralized data on cross-facility nursing home employment. In this paper, we perform the first large-scale analysis of nursing home connections via shared staff using device-level geolocation data from 30 million smartphones, and find that 7 percent of smartphones appearing in a nursing home also appeared in at least one other facility---even after visitor restrictions were imposed. We construct network measures of nursing home connectedness and estimate that nursing homes have, on average, connections with 15 other facilities. Controlling for demographic and other factors, a home's staff-network connections and its centrality within the greater network strongly predict COVID-19 cases. Traditional federal regulatory metrics of nursing home quality are unimportant in predicting outbreaks, consistent with recent research. Results suggest that eliminating staff linkages between nursing homes could reduce COVID-19 infections in nursing homes by 44 percent. |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27608&r=all |
| By: | KONDO Keisuke; OKUBO Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how local market size affects the probabilities of firm exit by focusing on single-establishment firms in the service sector. The novelty of this study is that it identifies geographic ranges of local markets using the matched data of geocoded firm location and micro-geographic data with detailed firm exit information of all Japanese firms. The results reveal that the probability of firm exit increases as local market size increases within a narrow range (3 km radius) in the service sector. We also find that small firms tend to leave the market. Our results suggest that firm selection is stronger in larger markets, where larger firms are more likely to survive. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20053&r=all |
| By: | Emanuele Bracco (University of Verona and Lancaster University); Maria De Paola (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF, Università della Calabria); Colin Green (University of Science and Technology, Norway); Vincenzo Scoppa (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF, Università della Calabria) |
| Abstract: | There has been a resurgence in right wing and populist politics in recent years. A common element is a focus on immigration, an increase in anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the vilification of minorities. This in turn has the potential to lead to increases in societal hostility towards immigrants. Children are likely to find themselves at the frontline of this phenomenon. This paper uses census data on two cohorts of 5th grade Italian students to estimate the causal effect of anti-immigration politics on school bullying. We use variations in the timing of municipal elections in Italy and focus on the effect of Lega Nord, a far-right party, with a strong anti-immigration platform. We demonstrate that in municipalities where elections occur and Lega Nord is highly active, the victimisation of immigrant school children increases. These effects are large, while they are absent for municipalities in which Lega Nord has little support, where no elections occurred and for native children. These findings are robust to different definitions of bullying outcomes or different definitions of Lega Nord presence. Our results suggest important negative spillovers from the political sphere to the welfare of children that are likely to be consequential. |
| Keywords: | Bullying, Bullying Victimisation, School, Immigration, Politics, Elections |
| JEL: | J15 J13 D72 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clb:wpaper:202005&r=all |
| By: | Sameh Hallaq |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to estimate the intergenerational transmission of human capital in Palestine. The main question is whether formal parental education improves their offspring's cognitive skills and school achievements. I use the instrumental variable (IV) method in the estimations to overcome the potential endogeneity of parental education. The main source of variation in parental educational attainment is parents' exposure to the First Palestinian Intifada (1988-93) during their middle- and high school ages. During the First Palestinian Intifada, many school days were lost due to frequent school closures and other restrictions. Furthermore, many young people preferred to search for low-skill employment in Israel, since it provided them with better wages than the local labor market and hardly required any level of educational attainment. This study employs two outcomes, namely the standardized cognitive test scores and school achievements during the academic year 2012/13 for students between grade 5 and grade 9 in West Bank schools. Overall, the results support the hypothesis of a human capital spillover but more so for girls than for boys, where the IV results are often insignificant because of their large standard errors. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility; First Intifada |
| JEL: | I20 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_965&r=all |
| By: | Peter Ganong; Pascal J. Noel |
| Abstract: | There are two prevailing theories of borrower default: strategic default—when debt is too high relative to the value of the house—and adverse life events—such that the monthly payment is too high relative to available resources. It has been challenging to test between these theories in part because adverse events are measured with error, possibly leading to attenuation bias. We develop a new method for addressing this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic default motive: borrowers with positive home equity. We implement the method using high-frequency administrative data linking income and mortgage default. Our central finding is that only 3 percent of defaults are caused exclusively by negative equity, much less than previously thought; in other words, adverse events are a necessary condition for 97 percent of mortgage defaults. Although this finding contrasts sharply with predictions from standard models, we show that it can be rationalized in models with a high private cost of mortgage default. |
| JEL: | E20 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27585&r=all |
| By: | Reham Rizk; Ronia Hawash |
| Abstract: | Education inequality has always been a concern for policy makers due to its long-term and intergenerational impacts. This paper examines the determinants and the sources of education inequality among the youth in the MENA region using harmonized income and expenditure surveys. More attention is given to income and regional disparities as source of education inequality. The paper makes use of the Recentered Influence Functions (RIF) unconditional regression techniques to examine youth education inequality measured by years of schooling and to identify the determinants of Gini index of education across countries. The findings show that higher household income reduces education inequality among youth in Iraq and higher education expenditure reduces education inequality for youth in both Egypt and Iraq. Health expenditure is found to be having insignificant impact on education inequality for youth in all countries. Moreover, increasing the number of earners in the household reduce education inequality in both Jordan and Palestine and increases youth education inequality in Iraq and Egypt. It has been also deduced that rural regions are at a disadvantage in terms of educational attainment and educational inequality in comparison to urban regions across all countries and all income quartiles. The decomposition of rich-poor education inequality, reveals that the education gap among youth appear to increase for the poor compared to the rich. Finally, there is a declining trend in youth educational inequality over time for Egypt and Iraq. However, the gap seems to be widening for Jordan and Palestine. |
| JEL: | I24 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:790&r=all |
| By: | Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic |
| Abstract: | The evidence on what works in remote learning is scant, so schools and teachers are trying many approaches. |
| Keywords: | strategies, remote learning, schools, teachers |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e74b6d213e85452db7cfc07b010f6ed7&r=all |
| By: | Cécile Bonneau (PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyse the concentration of investment in education in the US from 1970 to 2017. I study both the distribution of spending for K-12 and Higher Education and then present different scenarios to combine both inequalities. Even if the distribution of education spending is less unequal than the one of income or even wages, these spending are still very unequally distributed and, as for income and wages, inequalities have significantly increased over the past four decades, due to spending in higher education. Indeed, the top 10% of students for whom the most is spent used to have 28% of the overall amount of instructional expenditure in 1970 and now have more than 36%. Inequalities in educational investments are coming from two sources: unequal length of studies and unequal spending per grade, the latter being the main driver of the concentration observed. As a matter of fact, if everyone were to have the same educational attainment, the level of inequalities would almost be the same. The only way to reduce significantly the concentration in educational spending would be to equalize spending within each grade across districts and universities. |
| Keywords: | School Finance,investment in education,History of Education,Government expenditure on Education,United States,World Inequality Lab |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-02875965&r=all |
| By: | Ellen B. Goldring; Laura K. Rogers; Melissa A. Clark |
| Abstract: | This report compares the principal supervisor role in 6 urban districts that participated in The Wallace Foundation’s Principal Supervisor Initiative with the role in 48 other urban districts that were not part of the initiative. |
| Keywords: | principal, principal supervisor, schools, learning, student achievement, school districts |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e4d4c2800a79431ca38cfad48c0dd8c0&r=all |
| By: | Adriana Peluffo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of innovation on labor demand, particularly, the level of employment and the skills composition of the labor force, in level and growth rates. Additionally, we analyze the ratio of skilled to unskilled labor and wages. The data for this study come from the Innovation Surveys for Uruguayan manufacturing and service firms over the 2000-2015 period matched with the Industrial Surveys of Economic Activity. We analyze the whole sample and each sector according to technological/knowledge intensity and firm size. Our results for ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and generalized method of moments show positive effects of innovation in the level of total employment and skilled workers, its rate of growth, and wages. Product and Enhancing productivity innovation show positive impact on employment. Splitting by manufacturing firms we observe that product innovation affect growth in employment for high-tech firms while organizational innovation and productivity enhancing innovation affects growth in skilled labor with a greater effect for low-tech firms, while organizational innovation affects growth in skilled labor and in the share of skilled labor. Small manufacturing and service firms are less responsive to innovation. Growth in employment of service firms are affected mainly by organizational innovation and productivity enhancing innovation. Thus, enhancing productivity innovation and its component of organizational innovation seems to play an important role on employment growth. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Skilled Labor, Product Innovation, Process Innovation |
| JEL: | D2 J23 L1 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-13-20&r=all |
| By: | Bryan, Gharad; Morten, Melanie |
| Abstract: | We estimate the aggregate productivity gains from reducing barriers to internal labor migration in Indonesia, accounting for worker selection and spatial differences in human capital. We distinguish between movement costs, which mean workers will move only if they expect higher wages, and amenity differences, which mean some locations must pay more to attract workers. We find modest but important aggregate impacts. We estimate a 22 percent increase in labor productivity from removing all barriers. Reducing migration costs to the US level, a high-mobility benchmark, leads to a 7.1 percent productivity boost. These figures hide substantial heterogeneity. The origin population that benefits most sees a 104 percent increase in average earnings from a complete barrier removal, or a 25 percent gain from moving to the US benchmark. |
| Keywords: | Selection; Internal migration; Indonesia |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:88177&r=all |
| By: | Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic |
| Abstract: | This fact sheet describes predictors related to near-term academic problems, meaning academic problems in the next quarter or semester. |
| Keywords: | relma, mid-atlantic, fact sheet, using school child welfare data, near-term, academic risks, predict |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:8606074bb8244e24824bf5c0fab337c8&r=all |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti |
| Abstract: | Average economic outcomes serve as important indicators of the overall state of the economy. However, they mask a lot of underlying variability in how people experience the economy across geography, or by race, income, age, or other attributes. Following our series on heterogeneity broadly in October 2019 and in labor market outcomes in March 2020, we now turn our focus to further documenting heterogeneity in the credit market. While we have written about credit market heterogeneity before, this series integrates insights on disparities in outcomes in various parts of the credit market. The analysis includes a look at differing homeownership rates across populations, varying exposure to foreclosures and evictions, and uneven student loan burdens and repayment behaviors. It also covers heterogeneous effects of policies by comparing financial health outcomes for those with access to public tuition subsidies and Medicare versus those not eligible. The findings underscore that a measure of the average, particularly relating to policy impact, is far from complete. Rather, a sharper picture of the diverse effects is essential to understanding the efficacy of policy. |
| Keywords: | student debt; housing; mortgage; medicare |
| JEL: | Q12 R31 I24 |
| Date: | 2020–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:88314&r=all |
| By: | Mathilde Munoz (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, WIL - World Inequality Lab) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the welfare effects of tax competition in an union where individuals can respond to taxation through migration. I derive the optimal linear and non-linear tax and transfer schedules in a free mobility union composed by symmetric countries that can either compete or set a federal tax rate. I show how in the competition union, the mobility-responses to taxation affect the redistributive capacity of governments through several mechanisms. I then use empirical earnings' distribution and estimated migration elasticities to implement numerical calibrations and simulations. I use my formulas to quantify the welfare gains and losses of being in a tax competition union instead of a federal union, and show how these welfare effects vary along the earnings distribution. I show that the bottom fifty percent always loses from tax competition, and that being in a competition union rather than in a federal union could decrease poorer individuals welfare up to -20 percent. |
| Keywords: | Tax Competition,Fiscal Dumping,Europe,taxation rate,migration,migration elasticities,international taxation |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:hal-02876988&r=all |
| By: | Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Yang Wang (Nanjing Audit University) |
| Abstract: | China is characterized by high prefiscal overall, urban-rural and regional inequality. Applying standard fiscal incidence analysis, we estimate the redistributive effect of taxes and social spending on income distribution and poverty. In particular, we estimate the effect of direct and indirect taxes, direct cash transfers, contributory pensions, indirect subsidies, and in-kind transfers (education and health) on overall inequality and poverty, the urban-rural income gap, and income inequality between regions. The results show that the fiscal system is inequality-reducing overall and between regions. However, the urban-rural gap rises and the postfiscal headcount ratio is higher than prefiscal poverty in rural areas. Both are undesirable outcomes given that rural residents are poorer. They are largely explained by the considerably lower contributory pensions received by rural residents. |
| Keywords: | Poverty and Inequality in China, Urban-Rural Gap, Regional Disparity, Taxes, Transfers, Incidence Analysis |
| JEL: | D31 H22 I38 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2020-556&r=all |
| By: | Lippens, Louis; Baert, Stijn; Ghekiere, Abel; Verhaeghe, Pieter-Paul; Derous, Eva |
| Abstract: | Scholars have gone to great lengths to chart the incidence of ethnic labour market discrimination. To effectively mitigate this discrimination, however, we need to understand its underlying mechanisms because different mechanisms lead to different counteracting measures. To this end, we reviewed the recent literature that confronts the seminal theories of taste-based and statistical discrimination against the empirical reality. First, we observed that the measurement operationalisation of the mechanisms varied greatly between studies, necessitating the development of a measurement standard. Second, we found that 20 out of 30 studies examining taste-based discrimination and 18 out of 34 studies assessing statistical discrimination produced supportive evidence for said mechanisms. However, (field) experimental research, which predominantly focuses on hiring outcomes, yielded more evidence in favour of taste-based vis-à-vis statistical discrimination, suggesting that the taste-based mechanism might better explain ethnic discrimination in hiring. |
| Keywords: | taste-based discrimination,statistical discrimination,ethnicity,race,labour market, systematic review |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:615&r=all |
| By: | Muñoz, Manuel A. |
| Abstract: | Since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, the presence of institutional investors in housing markets has steadily increased over time. Real estate funds (REIFs) and other housing investment firms leverage large-scale buy-to-rent investments in real estate assets that enable them to set prices in rental housing markets. A significant fraction of this funding is being provided in the form of non-bank lending (i.e., lending that is not subject to regulatory LTV limits). I develop a quantitative two-sector DSGE model that incorporates the main features of the real estate fund industry in the current context to study the effectiveness of dynamic LTV ratios as a macroprudential tool. Despite the comparatively low fraction of total property and debt held by REIFs, optimized LTV rules limiting the borrowing capacity of such funds are more effective in smoothing property prices, credit and business cycles than those affecting (indebted) households – borrowing limit. This finding is remarkably robust across alternative calibrations (of key parameters) and specifications of the model. The underlying reason behind such an important and unexpectedly robust finding relates to the strong interconnectedness of REIFs with various sectors of the economy. JEL Classification: E44, G23, G28 |
| Keywords: | leverage, loan-to-value ratios, real estate funds, rental housing |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202454&r=all |
| By: | Ayaz Ahmed (Senior Research Economist, PIDE, Islamabad.); Nasir Iqbal (Associate Professor, PIDE, Islamabad.); Ghulam Mustafa (PhD Fellow, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the impact of remittances on housing demand in large cities in Pakistan. Heckman’s sample selection model is used to assess the effects of remittances on standardised housing units using the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2015-16. Housing prices are calculated using the hedonic model that captures locational variations. The results show that remittances have a positive and significant impact on housing demand in large cities in Pakistan. Foreign remittances lead to a considerable increase in the need for new houses by increasing the purchasing power of households. With more resources, households are increasing their housing expenses. Besides, remittances have a positive and significant impact on rooms per person, which is indicative of accommodation capacity. The considerable contribution of remittances to increase the new demand for housing among migrant households remains consistent in all provinces. Two implications emerge from this analysis. On the one hand, remittances facilitate overcoming the housing deficit and, on the other hand, can lead to more congestions in large cities. The government should encourage overseas Pakistanis to invest in new housing schemes launched by the government to meet the housing demand for low and middleincome groups. |
| Keywords: | Housing Demand, Cities, Remittances, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2020:10&r=all |
| By: | Carlsson, M.; Fumarco, L.; Gibbs, B. G. |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the literature on long-term effects of relative age (i.e. age differences between classmates in compulsory school) by examining tertiary education outcomes. We investigate whether there is evidence of relative age effects on university students enrolled in the Erasmus exchange program. We use administrative data on all exchange students who visited the Linnaeus University, in Sweden, in the four years since its founding. We find long-term evidence of RAEs—the youngest cohort students participate less often to the Erasmus exchange program than older cohort members. |
| Keywords: | Educational Policy,Higher Education,International Education/Studies,Migration,Policy Analysis |
| JEL: | D04 I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:617&r=all |
| By: | Francisco Cabrera-Hernández (Department of Economics, University of Monterrey); María Padilla-Romo (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic affected the reporting of child maltreatment in Mexico City. We use a rich panel dataset on incident-level crime reports and victim characteristics and exploit the di erential effects between school-age children and older individuals. While financial and mental distress due to the COVID-19 pandemic may result in additional cases of child maltreatment, synthetic control and di erence-in-di erences estimations document an average reduction in child maltreatment reports of 21% and 30%, respectively, with larger reductions among females and in higher-poverty municipalities. These results highlight the important role education professionals in school settings play in the early detection and reporting of domestic violence against school-age children. |
| Keywords: | Child maltreatment; Domestic Violence; COVID-19; School closures |
| JEL: | I29 I31 J12 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2020-02&r=all |
| By: | Nadeem Ul Haque (Vice Chancellor, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Nadeem Khurshid (CEO, 4th Dimension Consulting.) |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2020:9&r=all |
| By: | Ana I. Moro Egido (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.); Maria Navarro (Departament of Applied Economics, University of Granada.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the degree of urbanization on child material deprivation by region in Spain. Using the EU-SILC 2009 and 2014 special module on material deprivation, we find that living in a city or town, with respect to a village, increases child material deprivation to a larger extent than household material deprivation and income. The effect of income becomes larger only among households with the largest deprivation (top quintile). Differentiating by needs, children’s basic needs provision does not respond to household material deprivation, income or degree of urbanization, whereas educational/leisure needs provision does. Finally, our results support the idea that regions with sufficiently high densely populated areas increase children’s material deprivation. Our findings might be of help for politicians and policymakers to design more effective policies intended to alleviate the incidence of child material deprivation that go beyond incomerelated programs. |
| Keywords: | Child and household material deprivation, hierarchical data, degree of urbanization, regional disparities. |
| JEL: | C30 I32 R20 |
| Date: | 2020–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:20/06&r=all |
| By: | Angela Daley; Thesia Garner; Shelley Phipps; Eva Sierminska |
| Abstract: | Equivalence scales are often used to adjust household income for differences in characteristics that affect needs. For example, a family of two is assumed to need more income than a single person, but not double due to economies of scale in consumption. However, in comparing economic well-being across countries and/or time, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the same equivalence scale if consumption expenditure patterns differ? We estimate equivalence scales for eight countries with data ranging from 1999 to 2012, using the same Engel approach in all cases. We find considerable variation in economies of scale across countries and some increases over time. Notably, we find that economies of scale are generally larger than those implied by the ‘square root of household size’ equivalence scale. Our results have important implications when deciding whether to use a common equivalence scale in comparisons of economic well-being across place and time. |
| JEL: | D12 I31 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:781&r=all |
| By: | Brandtner, Christof; Bettencourt, Luis; Berman, Marc; Stier, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Societal responses to crises require coordination at multiple levels of organization. Exploring early efforts to contain COVID-19 in the U.S., we argue that local governments can act to ensure systemic resilience and recovery when higher-level governments fail to do so. Event history analyses show that large, more urban areas experience COVID-19 more intensely due to high population density and denser socioeconomic networks. But metropolitan counties were also among the first to adopt shelter-in-place orders. Analyzing the statistical predictors of when counties moved before their states, we find that the hierarchy of counties by size and economic integration matters for the timing of orders, where both factors predict earlier shelter-in-place orders. In line with sociological theories of urban governance, we also find evidence of an important governance dimension to the timing of orders. Liberal counties in conservative states were more than twice as likely to adopt a policy and implement one earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that tensions about how to resolve collective governance problems are important in the socio-temporal dynamic of responses to COVID-19. We explain this behavior as a substitution effect in which more urban local governments, driven by risk and necessity, step up into the action vacuum left by higher levels of government and become national policy leaders and innovators. |
| Date: | 2020–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b5hj3&r=all |
| By: | Alexander M. Danzer; Carsten Feuerbaum; Fabian Gaessler |
| Abstract: | While economic theory suggests substitutability between labor and capital, little evidence exists regarding the causal effect of labor supply on inventing labor-saving technologies. We analyze the impact of exogenous changes in regional labor supply on automation innovation by exploiting an immigrant placement policy in Germany during the 1990s and 2000s. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that one additional worker per 1,000 manual and unskilled workers reduces automation innovation by 0.05 patents. The effect is most pronounced two years after immigration and confined to industries containing many low-skilled workers. Labor market tightness and external demand are plausible mechanisms for the labor-innovation nexus. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, automation, innovation, patents, labor market tightness, quasi-experiment |
| JEL: | O31 O33 J61 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8410&r=all |
| By: | Judith M. Delaney; Paul J. Devereux |
| Abstract: | Much research has shown that having a better class of degree has significant payoff in the labour market. Using administrative data from Ireland, we explore the performance in college of different types of students. We find that post-primary school achievement is an important predictor: Its relationship with college performance is concave for college completion, approximately linear for the probability of obtaining at least second class honours, upper division, and convex for the probability of obtaining a first class honours degree. We find that females do better in college than males, even after we account for their greater prior achievement, and this is true in both non-STEM and STEM fields. Disabled students, students from disadvantaged schools, and students who qualify for means-tested financial aid are less likely to complete and less likely to obtain first class honours or a 2.1 degree. However, once we control for post-primary school achievement, these students actually perform better in college than others. We also find that, conditional on prior achievement, students from private exam-oriented “grind” schools and from Irish-medium schools are less likely to finish a degree and less likely to perform well in college, possibly because their school exam results are high relative to their abilities. Our results suggest that current college policies that lower entry requirements for disabled students and students from disadvantaged backgrounds may be justified on efficiency as well as equity grounds. They also suggest that college performance might be improved by increasing entry requirements for students who come from school types that convey advantages in the post-primary exams that determine college entry. |
| Keywords: | Higher education; Gender and educational achievement; Gender and STEM; Educational disadvantage; Degree class; Contextual admissions |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202015&r=all |
| By: | Elsayed, Ahmed (IZA); Marie, Olivier (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a unique policy reform in Egypt that reduced the number of years of compulsory schooling, we show how it unexpectedly increased education attainment as more students chose to complete the next school stage. This impact is almost entirely driven by girls from more disadvantaged households. Treated women later experienced important positive improvements in labor market opportunity and marriage quality, as measured by bride price received and household bargaining power. We attribute the increased investment in daughters' human capital to changes in the behavior of credit-constrained families facing reduced school costs combined with strongly non-linear returns to female education. |
| Keywords: | school costs, education investment, gender bias, female labor market, marriage, bride price, Egypt |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J24 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13402&r=all |
| By: | Paola Azar (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between school provision and the political power of the president in Uruguay between 1914 and 1954. The empirical test relies on panel fixed effects models based on newly compiled information about the partisan orientation of legislative members, the electoral competition and the schooling diffusion at the department-level. The estimates suggest the use of school provision as a pork barrel good. Ceteris paribus, school provision was lower in districts where government did not need to capture votes or to obtain legislative support. The direction of the influence shifted over time as an answer to increasing political fragmentation. Against the traditional historical narrative, these findings suggest that political interests did influence the provision of basic schooling over the territory. |
| Keywords: | public schooling, distributive politics, pork barrel, Uruguay |
| JEL: | D72 H75 I28 N36 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-07-20&r=all |
| By: | Martina Magli |
| Abstract: | The study proves evidence of five new empirical facts on the impact of services offshoring on local labour markets. First, services offshoring increases average employment and wages within local labour markets, much more so in the manufacturing industry than in the services one. Second, positive effects are both on firms directly offshoring services and on non-offshoring firms located in the same local labour market of offshoring ones. Third, larger firms and those paying higher wages benefit the most from local market services offshoring, rising the gap between firms. Fourth, services offshoring widens the differences between workers with those in managerial and professional occupations or with a higher level of education benefiting the most. Finally, the interpretation of a local labour market is pivotal for the results: local area and sector-local area specifications reveal positive impacts of services offshoring, opposite to sectoral one. |
| Keywords: | services offshoring, local labour market, spillover effect, quantile analysis, Great Britain |
| JEL: | F10 F16 J20 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8413&r=all |
| By: | Maximilian Schäfer; Kevin Ducbao Tran |
| Abstract: | The rise of online platforms has disrupted numerous traditional industries. A prime example is the short-term accommodation platform Airbnb and how it affects the hotel industry. On the one hand, consumers can profit from Airbnb due to an increased number of choices and lower prices. On the other hand, critics of the platform argue that it allows professional hosts to operate de facto hotels while being subject to much laxer regulation. Understanding the nature of competition between Airbnb and hotels as well as quantifying consumer welfare gains from Airbnb is important to inform the debate on necessary platform regulation. In this paper, we analyze competition between hotels and Airbnb listings as well as the effect of Airbnb on consumer welfare. For this purpose, we use granular daily-level data from Paris for the year 2017. We estimate a nested logit model of demand that allows for consumer segmentation along accommodation types and the different districts within the city. We extend prior research by accounting for the localized nature of competition within districts of the city. Our results suggest that demand is segmented by district as well as accommodation type. Based on the parameter estimates, we calibrate a supply-side model to assess how Airbnb affects hotel revenues and consumer welfare. Our simulations imply that Airbnb increases average consumer surplus by 4.3 million euro per night and reduces average hotel revenues by 1.8 million euro. Furthermore, we find that 28 percent of Airbnb travelers would choose hotels if Airbnb did not exist. |
| Keywords: | Hotel industry, short-term rentals, localized competition, consumer welfare, sharing economy, peer-to-peer markets, Airbnb |
| JEL: | D4 D6 L1 Z38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1889&r=all |
| By: | ADACHI Daisuke; KAWAGUCHI Daiji; SAITO Yukiko |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of industrial robots on employment in Japan, the country with the longest tradition of robot adoption. We employ a novel data set of robot shipments by destination industry and robot application (specified task) in quantity and unit values. These features allow us to use an identification strategy leveraging the heterogeneous application of robots across industries and heterogeneous price changes across applications. For example, the price drop of the welding robot relative to the assembling robot induced faster adoption of robots in the automobile industry that intensively uses welding processes than in the electric machine industry that intensively uses assembling processes. Our industrial-level and commuting zone-level analyses both indicate that the decline of robot prices increased the number of robots as well as employment, suggesting that robots and labor are gross complementary in the production process. We compare our estimates with those reported by existing studies and propose a mechanism that explains apparent differences between the results. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20051&r=all |
| By: | Clara Toledano (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab) |
| Abstract: | Business cycle dynamics can shape the wealth distribution through asset price changes, saving responses, or a combination of both. This paper studies the implications of housing booms and busts for wealth inequality, examining two episodes over the last four decades in Spain. I combine fiscal data with household surveys and national accounts to reconstruct the entire wealth distribution and develop a new asset-specific decomposition of wealth ac- cumulation to disentangle the main forces behind wealth inequality dynamics (e.g., capital gains, saving rates). I find that the top 10% wealth share drops during housing booms, but the decreasing pattern reverts during busts. Differences in capital gains across wealth groups appear to be the main drivers of the decline in wealth concentration during booms. In contrast, persistent differences in saving rates across wealth groups and portfolio reshuf- fling towards financial assets among top wealth holders are the main explanatory forces behind the reverting evolution during housing busts. I show that the heterogeneity in saving responses is largely driven by differences in portfolio adjustment frictions across wealth groups and that tax incentives can exacerbate this differential behavior. Using a novel personal income and wealth tax panel, I explore the role of tax incentives exploiting quasi-experimental variation created by a large capital income tax reform in a differences- in-differences setting. I find that capital income tax cuts, largely benefiting top wealth holders, explain on average 60% of the increase in the top 10% wealth share during the re- cent housing bust. These results provide novel empirical evidence to enrich macroeconomic theories of wealth inequality over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Wealth distribution,wealth concentration,Spain,inequality,asset,housing,wealth tax |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:hal-02876979&r=all |
| By: | Ioannis Bournakis; Mona Said; Antonio Savoia; Francesco Savoia |
| Abstract: | Income distribution is seen as instrumental to human development and to a number of development outcomes through a variety of channels. It is also considered important in itself, as testified by its inclusion in the Sustainable Development Goals. Yet existing research on income inequality in developing economies has not devoted much attention to the regional dimension. This is important, as progress in reducing income inequality at national level on SDG Goal 10 is only a partial success if a country presents large regional variation, where very unequal regions coexist alongside relatively equal ones. This paper contributes to fill this gap by offering a case study on Egypt, and adds to our knowledge of income inequality in the Arab region, an area that has not seen extensive empirical analysis. Using newly assembled data by LIS and a range of inequality measures, the paper shows that there has generally been an increase in income inequality during 1999-2015 and finds evidence of unconditional convergence in income distribution across Egyptian Governorates. This result implies that income inequality in less unequal regions grows faster than in more equal regions, regardless of regional characteristics. Second, the speed of convergence has not been uniform: sustained for most regions, but significantly slower or even lacking for some regions. Finally, convergence across regions has been significant also for the bottom forty per cent and proportion of people living below 50% median income, implying that maintaining this convergence process will be an important policy avenue to guarantee that progress on SDG 10 will be geographically widespread, achieving shared prosperity at both the national and regional level. |
| JEL: | O15 D63 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:798&r=all |
| By: | Bles, Per (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, ROA / Education and occupational career); van der Velden, Rolf (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, ROA / Education and occupational career); Ariës, Roel J. (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Education and occupational career) |
| Abstract: | Schools in secondary education face a dilemma. On the one hand, they would like to offer all students opportunities to develop their talent, and on the other hand they want to safeguard a minimum performance level. In tracked systems, this dilemma becomes more consequential as misallocation of students could lead to either denying access to a more optimal track or to lower performance of students that are placed too high. Based on data from the Netherlands Cohort Study on Education (NCO) from 2010 to 2017, we find that only for 55% of schools there is a trade-off between opportunity and performance. These schools show a relative preference for either opportunity or performance. However, in the other schools, opportunity and performance are optimised at the same time; this dimension is related to the quality of the school. While controlling for the school’s potential student population, we show which school characteristics are associated with the relative preference and quality dimensions. |
| JEL: | I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2020–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2020009&r=all |
| By: | Björn Nilsson; Racha Ramadan |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to quantify the effects from migration on net income distributions, disentangling the roles played by factor reallocation and remittances, and focusing on two (primarily) destination countries (Spain and Italy) and two (primarily) origin countries (Jordan and Iraq). Using LIS-ERF data sets for the four countries; the paper relies separately on a variant of a shift-share instrument to identify the effect of migration on inequalities at the regional level in Spain and Italy, and on quantile regression to estimate the impact of receiving remittances on per capita expenditure in Iraq and Jordan. The results suggest that migration increases inequality in both origin and receiving countries. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:788&r=all |
| By: | Charles Yuji HORIOKA (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute); Yoko NIIMI (Doshisha University and Asian Growth Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that there was a rapid expansion of housing credit in Japan after 1970 and then consider what benefits and costs the rapid expansion of housing credit conferred on Japanese households and whether it was, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing for them. On the one hand, the rapid expansion of housing credit made it easier for households to purchase housing, which in turn enabled them to purchase housing at a younger age and enabled them to avoid the need to pay rent. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of housing credit increased the housing loan repayment burden of households, which in turn forced them to cut back on non-housing consumption and weakened their ability to accumulate financial assets in preparation for retirement. We conclude that, until now, the benefits of the expansion of housing credit seems to have outweighed the costs thereof, as a result of which it has increased the welfare of households but that there are some areas of concern and that the government should take the necessary steps to alleviate these concerns. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership rate; Housing finance; Housing loans; Housing purchase; Mortgages; Rent |
| JEL: | D14 E21 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2020-j12&r=all |
| By: | Francesca Rossi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Peter M. Robinson (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We develop refined inference for spatial regression models with predetermined regressors. The ordinary least squares estimate of the spatial parameter is neither consistent, nor asymptotically normal, unless the elements of the spatial weight matrix uniformly vanish as sample size diverges. We develop refined testing of the hypothesis of no spatial dependence, without requiring negligibility of spatial weights, by formal Edgeworth expansions. We also develop higher-order expansions for both an unstudentized and a studentized transformed estimator, where the studentized one can be used to provide refined interval estimates. A Monte Carlo study of finite sample performance is included. |
| Keywords: | Spatial autoregression; least squares estimation; higher-order inference; Edgeworth expansion; testing spatial independence. |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C21 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:04/2020&r=all |
| By: | Benedikt Janzen; Doina Maria Radulescu |
| Abstract: | We employ hourly electricity load data for Switzerland as a real time indicator of the economic effects of the lockdown following the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings reveal that following the drastic lockdown, overall electricity use decreased by 4 per cent, with a reduction of even 11.3 per cent in the Canton of Ticino where the number of confirmed cases per capita was one of the highest in Switzerland and also stricter measures such as closures of construction sites and industrial companies were implemented on top of federal regulations. Looking at working days only, we estimate a Swiss-wide decrease in electricity consumption of 6.3 per cent. Assuming industry, services, transport and agriculture account for 67 per cent of electricity demand, the 4 per cent decrease in electricity use implies a 6 per cent output reduction in these sectors. In addition, the reduced electricity imports and the change in the generation mix of neighbouring countries, also translates into reduced CO2 emissions related to these imports. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, economic indicator, electricity load, CO2 emissions |
| JEL: | C53 Q40 C30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8363&r=all |
| By: | Salas Rodriguez, Hugo; Hancevic, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Approximately 70 countries worldwide implement a daylight-saving time (DST) policy: setting their clocks forward in the spring and back in the fall. The main purpose of this practice is to save on electricity. However, by artificially changing the distribution of daylight, this practice can have unforeseen effects. This document provides an analysis of the impact of DST on traffic accidents in Mexico, using two empirical strategies: regression discontinuity design (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DD). The main finding is that setting the clocks forward an hour significantly lowers the total number of traffic accidents in the country’s metropolitan areas. However, there is no clear effect on the number of fatal traffic accidents. |
| Keywords: | traffic accidents; daylight saving time; difference-in-differences; regression discontinuity; municipalities in Mexico |
| JEL: | D04 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101835&r=all |
| By: | Rémi Odry |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of the Bologna Process on migration inflows within European countries between 2004 and 2017. To this aim, we rely on a large panel of bilateral flows between most of the European countries, and use several estimators. Our results show that the Bologna Process has a limited, when significant, impact on migration in Europe. Its effect is mostly visible in destination countries but is extremely weak when we focus on the implementation in origin countries. When detected, the effect of the Bologna Process is growing following its implementation. In contrast, Diasporas are important in explaining flows between countries. We also find that traditional variables such as common language and distance may not be as relevant as before in studying intra-European flows. Finally, we notice an unexpected negative effect of the adoption of the Euro. |
| Keywords: | Bologna Process; Migration; Education; Gravity Model. |
| JEL: | I23 J15 C33 J18 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-24&r=all |
| By: | Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic |
| Abstract: | When schools are forced to shutter their doors because of natural phenomena, remote learning takes on added importance. |
| Keywords: | rel-ma, mid-atlantic, infographic, promising practices, approaches, support, remote learning |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:27e33698721948d08d7191d0358f7533&r=all |
| By: | Tom Hargreaves (Science, Society and Sustainability (3S) research group, University of East Anglia); Noel Longhurst (Science, Society and Sustainability (3S) research group Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | Dominant policy understandings of fuel poverty tend to overlook its lived experience. This results in narrow, overly technical problem framings and solutions that neglect the multiple, inter-related and dynamic factors that shape experiences of fuel poverty in situ. Recent qualitative work that has examined the lived experience of fuel poverty has begun to recognise the importance of emotional and subjective experiences to experiences of energy vulnerability, but these are generally regarded as consequences of the problem and thus are not treated as central to analyses. This paper explores a range of emotional engagements with energy vulnerability. The paper draws on new empirical data taken from 16 semi-structured interviews with social housing tenants as well as 10 interviews and a focus group (n=8) with housing association employees. Three distinct forms of emotion engagement were identified as of critical importance for experiences of energy vulnerability: i) worry, fear and control; ii) relationships of care; iii) embarrassment, trust and gratitude. Crucially, and for the first time, the paper shows that emotions are not merely a consequence of energy vulnerability but can also help to cause it. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings. |
| Keywords: | Fuel poverty, energy vulnerability, emotions, qualitative, interviews. |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaccp:2018_07&r=all |
| By: | Allouch, Nizar; King, Maia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates welfare targeting for public goods in networks. First, we show that a tax/subsidy scheme (not necessarily budget-balanced) affects each consumer only insofar as it affects his neighbourhood. Second, we show that either a Pareto-improving income redistribution can be found or there exist Negishi weights, which we relate to the network structure. Third, in the case of Cobb–Douglas preferences, we show that a law of welfare targeting holds and links two well-known notions of the comparative statics of policy interventions: neutrality and welfare paradoxical effects. Collectively, our findings uncover the importance of the −1 eigenvalue to economic and social policy: it is an indication of how consumers absorb the impact of income redistribution. |
| Date: | 2020–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:74mur&r=all |
| By: | Lodefalk, Magnus (The Ratio Institute); Sjöholm, Fredrik (Lund University); Tang, Aili (Örebro University) |
| Abstract: | We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages. |
| Keywords: | Export; Import; Immigrants; Employment; Wages |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J21 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0335&r=all |
| By: | Marco Cipriani; Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Anna Kovner; Gabriele La Spada; Matthew Lieber; Shawn Nee |
| Abstract: | In March, with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, the market for municipal securities was severely stressed: mutual fund redemptions sparked unprecedented selling of municipal securities, yields increased sharply, and issuance dried up. In this post, we describe the evolution of municipal bond market conditions since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We show that conditions in municipal markets have improved significantly, in part a result of the announcement and implementation of several Federal Reserve facilities. Yields have decreased substantially, mutual funds have received significant inflows, and issuance has rebounded. These improvements in municipal market conditions help ensure that state and local governments have better access to funding for critical capital investments. |
| Keywords: | state and local governments; municipal debt; MLF; municipal debt markets; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E58 E62 H0 |
| Date: | 2020–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:88240&r=all |
| By: | Fahd Zulfiqar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Zulfiqar Ali (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.) |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2020:14&r=all |
| By: | Yoshida, Jun; Kono, Tatsuhito |
| Abstract: | This paper optimizes fuel tax, car ownership tax, highway tolls, and peak-time area pricing in Beijing with explicit consideration of marginal costs of public funds arising from these taxes and pricing. We establish two scenarios: scenario 1 optimizes the two taxes, tolls, and area pricing simultaneously; scenario 2 optimizes the two taxes and tolls without area pricing. Using Beijing’s parameters obtained from previous studies, our calculation results show that 1) the optimal area pricing is 50 CNY/entry; 2) Scenario 1 reduces the number of cars in peak time by more than 50%, but scenario 2 reduces it by 10%; 3) regardless of area pricing, fuel tax should be higher and car ownership tax lower. We do some sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the possible ranges of the tax and pricing instruments. |
| Keywords: | Optimal taxation, Marginal cost of public funds, Externality, Area pricing |
| JEL: | H2 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101728&r=all |
| By: | Nicolo Maffei Faccioli (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and Barcelona GSE); Eugenia Vella (Centre for Health Economics and Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of net migration shocks in Germany. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 and a variety of identification strategies in a structural vector autoregressive model, we show that migration shocks are expansionary. Net migration increases persistently industrial production, per capita net exports and tax revenue. In the labor market, migra- tion boosts persistently job openings and, after a year and a half, hourly wages in manufacturing. Total unemployment declines but the response is asymmetric be- tween natives and foreigners. Unemployment falls persistently for natives while it rises a year after the shock for foreigners as the newly settled migrants enter the labor market gradually. Using also quarterly data in a mixed-frequency SVAR, we shed light on the employment and participation responses for natives and foreign- ers. We also show that migration shocks increase per capita GDP, investment, and hourly wages of the aggregate economy. Taken together, our results highlight a job-creation effect for natives and a job-competition effect for foreigners. |
| Keywords: | Migration, unemployment, job creation, job competition, mixed-frequency SVAR. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 F22 F41 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2020008&r=all |
| By: | Haedo, Christian; Mouchart, Michel |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2019014&r=all |
| By: | Luigi Grossi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Mauro Mussini (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that the changes in the timing and magnitude of seasonality in tourist flows can be measured by decomposing the change in the Gini index, a widely used measure of seasonal concentration, into two components. One of them tracks the changes in the timing of fluctuations, examining the extent to which the seasonal pattern is stable and the second captures the changes in the magnitude of seasonal fluctuations. To assess whether changes in the seasonal pattern and magnitude are significant, a technique for testing statistical hypotheses concerning the two components is developed. The decomposition and statistical tests are used to examine changes in the seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals in six tourist destinations in the Veneto region, one of the most important regions in Italy and Europe for tourism, over the decade from 2006 to 2016. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of seasonality significantly decreased in some destinations characterized by diversified tourist products, such as Euganean spas and Lake Garda. The seasonal pattern remained substantially stable for all destinations except Venice, where a non-negligible shift in the seasonal pattern occurred. The policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | concentration indices, Gini index decomposition, tourism seasonality, tourism time series |
| JEL: | C46 C63 L83 Z32 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:16/2019&r=all |
| By: | Battal Dogan (University of Bristol); Lars Ehlers (Université de Montréal and CIREQ) |
| Abstract: | It is known that there are school choice problems without an efficient and stable assignment. We consider comparing assignments in terms of their stability by comparing their sets of blocking (student-school) pairs or comparing their sets of blocking students who are involved in at least one blocking pair. Although there always exists a Pareto improvement over the student-optimal stable (DA) assignment which is minimally unstable among efficient assignments when the stability comparison is based on comparing the sets of blocking pairs in the set-inclusion sense, we show that this is not necessarily true when the stability comparison is based on comparing the sets of blocking pairs in the cardinal sense, or when it is based on comparing sets of blocking students (in the set-inclusion or cardinal sense). Given the latter impossibilities, we characterize the priority profiles where there exists a Pareto improvement over the DA mechanism which is cardinally minimally stable among efficient assignments when counting blocking pairs or counting blocking students. The resulting domain restrictions suggest to take with caution school choice analysis which relies on a particular stability comparison method. |
| Keywords: | school choice, stability comparisons, minimal instability, deferred acceptance |
| JEL: | C70 D47 D61 D63 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtl:montec:04-2020&r=all |
| By: | Roxanne Kovacs (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Maurice Dunaiski (London School of Economics and Political Science); Janne Tukiainen (University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | There is currently a heated debate about making face masks compulsory in public spaces to contain COVID-19. A key concern is that such policies could lead to risk compensating behaviour and thereby undermine efforts to maintain social distancing and reduce mobility. We provide first evidence on the impact of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility. We exploit the staggered implementation of policies by German states and measure community mobility using geo-located smartphone data. We find no evidence suggesting that compulsory masking policies affect community mobility in Germany. We can rule out even small increases larger than 0.03 standard deviations. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, face masks, social distancing, community mobility |
| JEL: | D9 H12 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp136&r=all |
| By: | Markus Karlman (IIES, University of Stockholm); Karin Kinnerud (IIES, University of Stockholm); Kasper Kragh-Sørensen (IIES, University of Stockholm) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:19-217&r=all |
| By: | Crescenzi, Riccardo; Di Cataldo, Marco; Giua, Mara |
| Abstract: | Growing Euroscepticism across the European Union (EU) leaves open questions as to what citizens expect to gain from EU Membership and what influences their dissent for EU integration. This paper looks at the EU Structural Funds, one of the largest and most visible expenditure items in the EU budget, to test their impact on electoral support for the EU. By leveraging the Referendum on Brexit held in the United Kingdom, a spatial RDD analysis offers causal evidence that EU money does not influence citizens’ support for the EU. Conversely, the analysis shows that EU funds mitigate Euroscepticism only where they are coupled with tangible improvements in local labour market conditions, the ultimate objective of this form of EU intervention. Money cannot buy love for the EU, but its capacity to generate new local opportunities certainly can. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; Cohesion policy; EU funds; Euroscepticism; Regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105813&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Loumeau (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | How does the structure of metropolitan areas a ect urbanization and welfare? Using the development of urban sub-centers in France in the 1970s, I study the short- and long-term e ects of urban structural changes. To retrieve within metropolitan area e ects, I exploit the fact that out of 11 planned subcenters, only 9 have actually been developed. Using local population data between 1926 and 2015, I observe a polarization of growth in favor of sub-centers. As local gains might be o set by losses elsewhere, I develop a general equilibrium model to investigate global e ects. Overall, the observed shift towards polycentric metropolitan structures leads to an increased urbanization (by about 900,000 inhabitants in 2015) and a 0.7% national welfare growth. |
| Keywords: | Metropolitan areas, urbanization, structure, growth, mobility |
| JEL: | R11 R13 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:20-473&r=all |
| By: | Charles Hodgson (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Gregory Lewis (Microsoft Research) |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of consumer search with spatial learning in which sampling the payoff of one product causes consumers to update their beliefs about the payoffs of other products that are nearby in attribute space. Spatial learning gives rise to path dependence, as each new search decision depends on past experiences through the updating process. We present evidence of spatial learning in data that records online search for digital cameras. Consumers' search paths tend to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. We estimate the structural parameters of the model and show that these patterns can be rationalized by our model, but not by a model without spatial learning. Eliminating spatial learning reduces consumer welfare by 12%: cross-product inferences allow consumers to locate better products in a shorter time. Spatial learning has important implications for the power of search intermediaries. We use simulations to show that consumer-optimal product recommendations are that are most informative about other products. |
| Keywords: | Consumer search, Platforms, Online markets, Industrial organization |
| JEL: | D12 L81 L0 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2246&r=all |
| By: | Evans,David K.; Yuan,Fei; Filmer,Deon P. |
| Abstract: | Pay levels for public sector workers?and especially teachers?are a constant source of controversy. In many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, protests and strikes suggest that pay is low, while simple comparisons to average national income per capita suggest that it is high. This study presents data on teacher pay from 15 African countries, along with five comparator countries from other regions. The results suggest that in several (seven) countries, teachers'monthly salaries are lower than other formal sector workers with comparable levels of education and experience. However, in all of those countries, teachers report working significantly fewer hours than other workers, so that their hourly wage is higher. Teachers who report fewer hours are no more likely to report holding a second job, although teachers overall are nearly two times more likely to hold a second job than other workers. With higher national incomes, the absolute value of teacher salaries rises, but they fall as a percentage of income per capita. The study explores variation across types of teacher contracts, the association between teacher pay and student performance, and the association between teacher pay premia and other aspects of economies. |
| Keywords: | Educational Sciences,Labor Markets,Secondary Education,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Institutions&Facilities |
| Date: | 2020–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9358&r=all |
| By: | Alje van Dam; Andres Gomez-Lievano; Frank Neffke; Koen Frenken |
| Abstract: | We propose a statistical framework to quantify location and co-location associations of economic activities using information-theoretic measures. We relate the resulting measures to existing measures of revealed comparative advantage, localization and specialization and show that they can all be seen as part of the same framework. Using a Bayesian approach, we provide measures of uncertainty of the estimated quantities. Furthermore, the information-theoretic approach can be readily extended to move beyond pairwise co-locations and instead capture multivariate associations. To illustrate the framework, we apply our measures to the co-location of occupations in US cities, showing the associations between different groups of occupations. |
| Keywords: | pointwise mutual information, Kullback-Leiblerdivergence, revealed comparative advantage(RCA), specialization, localization, co-agglomeration |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2036&r=all |
| By: | Abhimanyu Gupta; Javier Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | We describe a nonparametric prediction algorithm for spatial data. The algorithm is based on a flexible exponential representation of the model characterized via the spectral density function. We provide theoretical results demonstrating that our predictors have desired asymptotic properties. Finite sample performance is assessed in a Monte Carlo study that also compares our algorithm to a rival nonparametric method based on the infinite AR representation of the dynamics of the data. We apply our method to a real data set in an empirical example that predicts house prices in Los Angeles. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.04269&r=all |
| By: | Albert Banal-Estañol; Tomaso Duso; Jo Seldeslachts; Florian Szücs |
| Abstract: | We investigate the dimensions through which R&D spillovers are propagated across firms via cooperation through Research Joint Ventures (RJVs). We build on the framework developed by Bloom et al. (2013) which considers the opposing effects of technology spillovers and product market rivalry, and extend it to account for RJVs. Our main findings are that the adverse effects of product market rivalry are mitigated if firms cooperate in RJVs and that R&D spending is reduced among technologically close RJV participants. |
| Keywords: | Spillovers, R&D, research joint ventures, market value, patents |
| JEL: | L24 L44 K21 O32 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1887&r=all |
| By: | David Roodman |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the research on the impacts of incarceration on crime. Where data availability permits, reviewed studies are replicated and reanalyzed. Among three dozen studies I reviewed, I obtained or reconstructed the data and code for eight. Replication and reanalysis revealed significant methodological concerns in seven and led to major reinterpretations of four. I estimate that, at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime outside of prison. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls, it also tends to increase their criminality after release. As a result, "tough-on-crime" initiatives can reduce crime in the short run but cause offsetting harm in the long run. A cost-benefit analysis finds that even under a devil's advocate reading of this evidence, in which incarceration does reduce crime in U.S., it is unlikely to increase aggregate welfare. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.10268&r=all |
| By: | Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | Refugee workers start low and adjust slowly to the wages of comparable natives. The innovative approach in this study using unique Swedish employeremployee data shows that the observed wage gap between established refugees and comparable natives is mainly caused by occupational sorting into cognitive and manual tasks. Within occupations, it can be largely explained by differences in work experience. The identification strategy relies on a control group of matched natives with the same characteristics as the refugees, using panel data for 2003–2013 to capture unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | refugees,wage earnings gap,Blinder—Oaxaca decomposition,employer-employee data,coarsened exact matching,correlated random effects model |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J24 J6 O15 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:562r&r=all |