nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒08‒24
ninety-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US By Prüser, Jan; Schmidt, Torsten
  2. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market By Liu, Sitian; Su, Yichen
  3. Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market. By Canepa, Alessandra; Zanetti Chini, Emilio; Alqaralleh, Huthaifa
  4. The geography of innovation and development: global spread and local hotspots By Crescenzi, Riccardo; Iammarino, Simona; Ioramashvili, Carolin; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael
  5. On the economic impacts of constraining second home investments By Hilber, Christian A. L.; Schöni, Olivier
  6. Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom By Diemer, Andreas
  7. City Size, Pollution and Emission Policies By Michael Pflüger
  8. Measuring and explaining management in schools: New approaches using public data By Leaver, Clare; Lemos, Renata; Scur, Daniela
  9. Assessment of the state of the general education system by teachers and parents of schoolchildren: monitoring results of 2019 By Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина); Yakovlev, Ivan (Яковлев, Иван)
  10. The Shadow Cost of Parking Minimums: Evidence from Los Angeles County By Franco, Sofia; Cutter, W.; Lewis, Skyler
  11. Compensating for Academic Loss: Online Learning and Student Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Andrew E. Clark; Huifu Nong; Hongjia Zhu; Rong Zhu
  12. COVID-19, state of emergency, and housing market By Delgado Narro, Ausugto Ricardo; Katafuchi, Yuya
  13. Estimating the Influence of Land Use Changes and Accessibility to Central Business Areas on property price in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Analysis during the Inbound Rise Period (Japanese) By KUTSUZAWA Ryuji
  14. The Role of Cost, Scale, and Property Attributes in Landowner Choice of Stormwater Management Option. By Cutter, W.; Pusch, Alexander
  15. Japan; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  16. Public Spaces of Developing Countries Post COVID 19: A Reflection on Current Situation from Planning Perspective in Case of Kabul City, Afghanistan By Mushkani, Rashid Ahmad; Ono, Haruka
  17. Social capital may mediate the relationship between social distance and COVID-19 prevalence By Keisuke Kokubun
  18. The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime By Bindler, Anna L; Hjalmarsson, Randi
  19. Estimating U.S. Housing Price Network Connectedness: Evidence from Dynamic Elastic Net, Lasso, and Ridge Vector Autoregressive Models By David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta; Hardik A. Marfatia; Stephen M. Miller
  20. Local Development Dynamics By Vlados, Charis; Chatzinikolaou, Dimos; Deniozos, Nikolaos; Katimertzopoulos, Fotios; Koutroukis, Theodore; Digkas, Agis-Georgios
  21. The Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Mobility and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Louisiana By Barnes, Stephen R.; Beland, Louis-Philippe; Huh, Jason; Kim, Dongwoo
  22. Estimating U.S. Housing Price Network Connectedness: Evidence from Dynamic Elastic Net, Lasso, and Ridge Vector Autoregressive Models By David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta; Hardik A. Marfatia; Stephen M. Miller
  23. City Planner Survey Reveals the Most Common Tools for Promoting Transit-Oriented Development By Barbour, Elisaa; Grover, Salvador; Lamoureaux, Yulia; Chaudhary, Gyanendra; Handy, Susan
  24. Market concentration, supply, quality and prices paid by Local Authorities in the English care home market By Ferran Espuny Pujol; Ruth Hancock; Morten Hviid; Marcello Morciano; Stephen Pudney
  25. A Political-Economy Analysis of the Provision of Urban Anti-Crime Technologies in a Model With Three Cities By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter
  26. Optimal Location-dependent Pricing Policies on Railways and Roads in a Continuous City By Joto, Keigo; Konagane, Joji; Kono, Tatsuhito; Kuwahara, Masao
  27. COVID-19, Race, and Redlining By Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
  28. A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion By Tam\'as Krisztin; Philipp Piribauer; Michael W\"ogerer
  29. The Airbnb Rent-Premium and the Crowding-Out of Long-Term Rentals By Robert J. Hill; Norbert Pfeifer; Miriam Steurer
  30. The Impact of the new Senior High School Program on the School Participation of 16 and 17-year old learners in the Philippines By Geoffrey Ducanes; Dina Joana Ocampo
  31. Imperfect Information, Social Norms, and Beliefs in Networks By Rapanos, Theodoros; Sommer, Marc; Zenou, Yves
  32. Changing the Principal Supervisor Role to Better Support Principals: Evidence from the Principal Supervisor Initiative By Ellen B. Goldring; Melissa A. Clark; Mollie Rubin; Laura K. Rogers; Jason A. Grissom; Brian Gill; Tim Kautz; Moira McCullough; Michael Neel; Alyson Burnett
  33. Nursing Home Staff Networks and COVID-19 By M. Keith Chen; Judith A. Chevalier; Elisa F. Long
  34. Inequality in U.S. Homeownership Rates by Race and Ethnicity By Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
  35. “I’ll See You in School”: A Multiple Proxy Analysis of the Role of Parental Involvement in K-12 Education and Improved Student Outcomes By Chandini Sankaran; Olivia Sorrentino; Eva Hernandez
  36. Home Prices, Fertility, and Early-Life Health Outcomes By Daysal, N. Meltem; Lovenheim, Michael; Siersbæk, Nikolaj; Wasser, David N.
  37. Canada; Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Housing Finance By International Monetary Fund
  38. How happy are my neighbours? Modelling spatial spillover effects of well-being By Thanasis Ziogas; Dimitris Ballas; Sierdjan Koster; Arjen Edzes
  39. Stra.Tech.Man Innovation, Hrm and Perception of Educational Needs in Underdeveloped Business Ecosystems: The Case of Retail Sector Firms in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace By Vlados, Charis; Chatzinikolaou, Dimos
  40. Refugees and the Educational Attainment of Natives By Green, Colin P.; Vaag Iversen, Jon Marius
  41. Using Data from Schools and Child Welfare Agencies to Predict Near-Term Academic Risks By Julie Bruch; Jonathan Gellar; Lindsay Cattell; John Hotchkiss; Phil Killewald
  42. A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities By Paul Brandily; Clément Brébion; Simon Briole; Laura Khoury
  43. Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19 By Daniel J. Wilson
  44. Effect of changing urban farming landscape on financing livelihoods and food security of urban farmers’ households in Ghana By Acquah, Isaiah; Forson, Joseph Ato; Baah-Ennumh, Theresa Yabaa
  45. Urban Density and COVID-19 By Carozzi, Felipe; Provenzano, Sandro; Roth, Sefi
  46. Innovation in risky markets: ownership and location advantages in the UK regions By Gagliardi, Luisa; Iammarino, Simona
  47. Negotiating the social contract in urban Africa: Informal food traders in Ghanaian cities By Resnick, Danielle; Sivasubramanian, Bhavna
  48. The potential of extractive industries as anchor investments for broader regional development By Olle Östensson
  49. Using Data from Schools and Child Welfare Agencies to Predict Near-Term Academic Risks, Appendixes By Julie Bruch; Jonathan Gellar; Lindsay Cattell; John Hotchkiss; Phil Killewald
  50. Do Class Size Reductions Protect Students from Infectious Disease? Lessons for COVID-19 Policy from Flu Epidemic in Tokyo Metropolitan Area By Oikawa, Masato; Tanaka, Ryuichi; Bessho, Shun-ichiro; Noguchi, Haruko
  51. Advancing the Agency of Adolescent Girls By Eric V. Edmonds; Benjamin Feigenberg; Jessica Leight
  52. Flypaper Effect in Indonesia: The Case of Kalimantan By Yarlina Yacoub
  53. Mentoring and Schooling Decisions: Causal Evidence By Armin Falk; Fabian Kosse; Pia Pinger
  54. Mobility Practices, Value of Time and Transport Appraisal By David Meunier
  55. Childhood Circumstances and Health Inequality in Old Age: Comparative Evidence from China and the United States By Chen, Xi; Yan, Binjian; Gill, Thomas M.
  56. Explaining the dynamics of relatedness: the role of co-location and complexity By Sándor Juhasz; Tom Broekel; Ron Boschma
  57. Work from Home After the COVID-19 Outbreak By Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens
  58. School Tracking and Mental Health By Bôckerman, Rikhard Petri; Haapanen, Mika; Jepsen, Christopher; Roulet, Alexandra
  59. Mentoring and Schooling Decisions: Causal Evidence By Armin Falk; Fabian Kosse; Pia Pinger
  60. Impact of Syrian Refugees on Education Outcomes in Jordan By Assaad, Ragui; Ginn, Thomas; Saleh, Mohamed
  61. Skills and selection into teaching: Evidence from Latin America By Estrada, Ricardo; Lombardi, María
  62. Coastal armoring and sinking property values: the case of seawalls in California By Brucal, Arlan; Lynham, John
  63. The role of arrival areas for migrant integration and resource access By Hanhorster, Heike; Wessendorf, Susanne
  64. The Lives and Livelihoods of Syrian Refugees in the Middle East : Evidence from the 2015-16 Surveys of Syrian Refugees and Host Communities in Jordan, Lebanon, and Kurdistan, Iraq By Krishnan,Nandini; Russo Riva,Flavio Luiz; Sharma,Dhiraj; Vishwanath,Tara
  65. Pathways-To-Outcomes: How Responsible Fatherhood Program Activities May Lead to Intended Outcomes By Scott Baumgartner; Daniel Friend; Pamela Holcomb; Elizabeth Clary; Heather Zaveri; Amy Overcash
  66. “A Global City in a Global Pandemic: Assessing the Ongoing Impact of COVID Induced Trends on London’s Economic Sectors” By Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
  67. Regional Innovation Systems and Less Developed Business Ecosystems: Fundamental Concepts and Theoretical Trends By Katimertzopoulos, Fotios; Vlados, Charis; Koutroukis, Theodore
  68. Effective Boost to Fertility: Evidence from Operation of Nuclear Power Plants in Japan By Hiroyuki Egami; Jorge Luis Garcia; Wang Tong
  69. The toll of voting in a pandemic: Municipal elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria* By Jochen Güntner
  70. Designing Robo-Taxis to Promote Ride-Pooling By Sanguinetti, Angela; Ferguson, Beth; Oka, Jamie; Alston-Stepnitz, Eli; Kurani, Kenneth
  71. Job loss at home: children’s school performance during the Great Recession By Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer
  72. Taxation and migration: Evidence and policy implications By Kleven, Henrik; Landais, Camille; Muñoz, Mathilde; Stantcheva, Stefanie
  73. Distance (Still) Hampers Diffusion of Innovations By Georg von Graevenitz; Stuart J. H. Graham; Amanda Myers
  74. High-Frequency Predictability of Housing Market Movements of the United States: The Role of Economic Sentiment By Mehmet Balcilar; Elie Bouri; Rangan Gupta; Clement Kweku Kyei
  75. Online Appendix & Additional Results for The Determinants of Social Connectedness in Europe By Michael Bailey; Drew Johnston; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Bogdan State; Johannes Stroebel
  76. Structural adjustment and changes to employment use in Japan By Timothy DeStefano; Filipe Silva; Sho Haneda; Hyeog Ug Kwon
  77. Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria By Monica Maduekwe; Uduak Akpan; Salisu Isihak
  78. Growth Poles and Clusters: Are There Useful Analytical Complementarities? By Vlados, Charis; Chatzinikolaou, Dimos
  79. Quantitative Easing and Financial Risk Taking: Evidence from Agency Mortgage REITs By W. Scott Frame; Eva Steiner
  80. Spatial and Social Mobility in England and Wales: Moving Out to Move On? By Buscha, Franz; Gorman, Emma; Sturgis, Patrick
  81. The Economics of Skyscrapers: A Synthesis By Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Jason Barr
  82. Effects of Peers and Rank on Cognition, Preferences, and Personality By Dasgupta, Utteeyo; Mani, Subha; Sharma, Smriti; Singhal, Saurabh
  83. The Geography of Technology Legitimation. How multi-scalar legitimation processes matter for path creation in emerging industries By Jonas Heiberg; Christian Binz; Bernhard Truffer
  84. Are Poles stuck in overeducation? Individual dynamics of educational mismatch in Poland By Jan Aleksander Baran
  85. Changes in the Forsaken Schooling and Migration Relationship in Tajikistan By Abdulloev, Ilhom
  86. Discrimination, narratives and family history: An experiment with Jordanian host and Syrian refugee children By Kai Barron; Heike Harmgart; Steffen Huck; Sebastian Schneider; Matthias Sutter
  87. The Heterogenous Regional Effects of Minimum Wages in Poland By Albinowski, Maciej; Lewandowski, Piotr
  88. Rolling-Time-Dummy House Price Indexes: Window Length, Linking and Options for Dealing with the Covid-19 Shutdown By Robert J. Hill; Michael Scholz; Chihiro; Miriam Steurer
  89. Who Has Been Evicted and Why? By Andrew F. Haughwout; Haoyang Liu; Xiaohan Zhang
  90. Social Capital, Networks, and Economic Wellbeing By Hellerstein, Judith K.; Neumark, David
  91. Robots and employment: evidence from Italy By Davide Dottori

  1. By: Prüser, Jan; Schmidt, Torsten
    Abstract: House price cycles may have considerable macroeconomic effects even if they evolve heterogeneous across local markets. In this paper we use a panel Markov switching model allowing for time-varying volatility to analyze national and state level house price regimes for the US jointly. Our approach identifies three house price regimes endogenously. A nationwide boom regime, a spatially limited bust regime and a nationwide bust regime. The spatially limited bust regime occurs in the coastal states where compared to other states the population density is high, the unemployment rate, the housing density as well as the land supply elasticity is low. This spatially limited bust regime usually follows a nationwide house price boom. Hence, house price movements in the coastal states usually determine the nationwide cycle in the US. Moreover, boom and bust cycles are accompanied by an exaggeration of house price increases during the boom in this group of states. In contrast, a bubble in the housing market occored in almost all states previous to the Great Recession. This is one explanation for the severity of the Great Recession.
    Keywords: house price cycles,regional house prices,Markov switching
    JEL: E31 R31 C11 C32
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Liu, Sitian; Su, Yichen
    Abstract: Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value of access to consumption amenities. Neighborhoods with high pre-COVID-19 home prices also see a greater drop in housing demand. While the national housing market partially recovered in June, we show that the negative effect of the pandemic on the demand for density persists, indicating that the change in the demand for density may last beyond an aggregate recovery of housing demand.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Density, City, Neighborhood, Housing, Location, Telework, Amenity
    JEL: I1 R2 R3
    Date: 2020–07–27
  3. By: Canepa, Alessandra; Zanetti Chini, Emilio; Alqaralleh, Huthaifa (University of Turin)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the dynamic features of house prices in London. Using a generalized smooth transition model (GSTAR) we show that dynamic symmetry in price cycles in the London housing market is strongly rejected. We also show that the GSTAR model is able to replicate the features of the observed cycle in the simulated data. Further, our results show that the proposed model performs well when compared to other linear and nonlinear speci?cations in a out-of-sample forecasting exercise.
    Date: 2020–05
  4. By: Crescenzi, Riccardo; Iammarino, Simona; Ioramashvili, Carolin; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael
    Abstract: Through successive industrial revolutions, the geography of innovation around the globe has changed radically, and with it the geography of wealth creation and prosperity. Since the Third Industrial Revolution, high incomes are increasingly metropolitan, leading to a renewal of inter-regional divergence within countries. These metropolitan areas are also hotbeds of innovation. At the same time, global networks for the production and delivery of goods and services have expanded greatly in recent decades. The globalization of production is mirrored in the globalization of innovation. The paper argues that the emerging geography of innovation can be characterised as a globalized hub-to-hub system, rather than a geography of overall spread of innovation and illustrates these trends using patent data. Although much attention has been given to explaining the rise and growth of innovation clusters, there is as yet no unified framework for the micro-foundations of the agglomeration and dispersion of innovation. In addition, there appear to be strong links between growing geographical inequality of innovation and prosperity, particularly within countries. This is particularly relevant in the context of declining overall research productivity, which could be driving growing geographical concentration. All in all, there is a rich agenda for continuing to investigate the relationship between the geography of innovation, economic development and income distribution.
    Keywords: geography of innovation; clusters; networks; inequality
    JEL: O33 R12
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Hilber, Christian A. L.; Schöni, Olivier
    Abstract: We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high natural amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’, which banned the construction of new second homes in desirable seasonal tourist locations. Consistent with our model, we find that the ban substantially lowered (increased) the price growth of primary (second) homes and increased the unemployment growth rate in the affected areas. Our findings suggest that the negative effect on local economies dominated the positive amenity-preservation effect. We conclude that constraining second home construction in seasonal tourist locations where primary and second homes are not close substitutes may reinforce wealth inequality.
    Keywords: second homes; wealth inequality; land use regulation; housing policy; house prices; unemployment; P2FRP1_155187
    JEL: D63 G12 R11 R21 R31 R52
    Date: 2020–06
  6. By: Diemer, Andreas
    Abstract: There is little evidence on the relevance of social networks in the aggregate spatial diffusion of localised economic shocks. This paper uses novel data on the universe of online friendships in the US to uncover how plausibly exogenous surges in the local demand for jobs in the oil and gas industry can affect the economy of spatially distant but socially proximate places. Although most of the diffusion is limited to geographically proximate areas, social networks matter too. According to 2SLS estimates, a million dollar per capita increase in oil and gas extraction raises per capita wages by over 5,000 dollars for workers reporting their incomes in counties located as far as 1,200 km away from the drilling site, but strongly socially connected to it. This effect is likely explained by the relocation of transient workers within the industry, providing new aggregate evidence in support of the literature on job information networks.
    Keywords: social networks; fracking; spatial diffusion; job search
    JEL: J61 J64 L71 Q33 R12 R23 Z13
    Date: 2020–08
  7. By: Michael Pflüger
    Abstract: This paper develops a model with an endogenous number of cities to explore whether local governments establish the optimal city size when key activities in the city are associated with emissions that harm consumers. In contrast to extant research, our model is fully micro-founded with respect to the urban sector and the agglomeration mechanism as well as the modelling of pollution and pollution abatement. We derive two key insights. First, if the national government implements a permit system (equivalently, pollution taxes) that allow for emissions as in the first-best, cities chosen by local governments are too small. Second, if no emission scheme is implemented, or if emission policies are too lax, cities steered by local governments may become too large. The tractability of the model also allows us to uncover the determinants of optimal city sizes, emissions, emission intensities and determinants of locally chosen city sizes, as well as to address the second-best emission policy and extensions to city asymmetries, a fiscal externality, local pollution, generalized commuting costs and further pollution sources.
    Keywords: city systems, environmental pollution, emission policies
    JEL: H73 R12 Q50
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Leaver, Clare; Lemos, Renata; Scur, Daniela
    Abstract: Why do some students learn more in some schools than others? One consideration receiving growing attention is school management. To study this, researchers need to be able to measure school management accurately and cheaply at scale, and also explain any observed relationship between school management and student learning. This paper introduces a new approach to measurement using existing public data, and applies it to build a management index covering 15,000 schools across 65 countries, and another index covering nearly all public schools in Brazil. Both indices show a strong, positive relationship between school management and student learning. The paper then develops a simple model that formalizes the intuition that strong management practices might be driving learning gains via incentive and selection effects among teachers, students and parents. The paper shows that the predictions of this model hold in public data for Latin America, and draws out implications for policy.
    Keywords: Cross-country; Management; teacher incentives; teacher selection
    JEL: I2 J3 M5
    Date: 2019–10
  9. By: Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yakovlev, Ivan (Яковлев, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Monitoring is based on the analysis of statistical data characterizing the current economic situation of regional general education systems, as well as sociological information obtained during a survey of parents of students, teachers and school directors of regional capitals, urban settlements and rural areas in the subjects of the Russian Federation, differentiated by the level of economic situation. In 2019, the total sample size was 4,479 respondents from the Pskov, Samara and Yaroslavl regions. This work presents the results of a sociological survey of teachers and parents of students, revealing their attitude to such aspects of general education as the personnel situation, teacher satisfaction with professional activities, career prospects, family requests for school activities, and the formation of students' educational strategies.
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Franco, Sofia (University of California, Irvine); Cutter, W. (Pomona College); Lewis, Skyler (UC Berkeley)
    Abstract: Minimum Parking Requirements (MPRs) are almost universal in U.S. cities and common in the rest of the world. In the U.S., parking requirements for commercial buildings commonly require 700 ft2 of parking for each 1000 ft2 of floor space. To the extent this is a binding requirement, MPRs could result in distortion in commercial development. MPRs require either the allocation of land for parking, or very costly substitution of structured parking for land. Therefore, MPR distortions are likely to increase with the value of land. A steep gradient in the cost of the MPRs leads to the possibility that MPR costs could be high enough to change where developers find it profitable to locate commercial development. In particular, MPR costs may be high enough in dense, high land-value areas to discourage development or move it to outlying areas. We use a Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) approach to estimate a hedonic specification using sales of office properties in Los Angeles County. This approach allows local variation in the estimates of marginal values of key parameters, including the value of on-site parking. To control for unobservables, we use the Linn (2013) method to incorporate pre-period prices into the MGWR estimator. Then we use these hedonic estimates plus locally-specific estimates of parking costs to estimate the cost of MPRs on a property by property basis. We check the robustness of the results by comparing our estimated costs to the in-lieu-of-parking fees that are offered by some of the cities in our sample. Our estimates of MPR costs are close to these market values for escaping the parking requirement. Our results show a significant gradient in MPR costs. Smaller properties in dense, high land value areas in Los Angeles can have MPR costs that amount to about 30% of building construction costs while properties in outlying areas often do not have binding MPRS. This gradient is likely to be sufficient to move development from high land value, dense, city centers into lower value areas. Our suite of methods could be applied to other building and zoning regulation, such as height regulation and inclusionary housing where the cost gradient is also likely to be important.
    Keywords: Parking, urban form, regulation
    Date: 2020–08–10
  11. By: Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Huifu Nong (SunYat-sen University); Hongjia Zhu (Jinan University [Guangzhou]); Rong Zhu (Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia])
    Abstract: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread school shutdowns, and many schools have opted for education using online learning platforms. Using administrative data from three middle schools in China, this paper estimates the causal effects of online learning on student performance. Using the difference-in-differences approach, we show that online education improves students' academic achievement by 0.22 of a standard deviation, relative to those who stopped receiving learning support from their school during the COVID-19 lockdown. All else equal, students from a school having access to recorded online lessons delivered by external higher-quality teachers have achieved more progress in academic outcomes than those accessing lessons recorded by teachers in their own school. We find no evidence that the educational benefits of distance learning differ for rural and urban students. However, there is more progress in the academic achievement of students using a computer for online education than that of those using a smartphone. Last, low achievers benefit the most from online learning while there is no significant impact for top students. Our findings have important policy implications for educational practices when lockdown measures are implemented during a pandemic.
    Keywords: academic achievement,COVID-19 pandemic,online learning
    Date: 2020–07
  12. By: Delgado Narro, Ausugto Ricardo; Katafuchi, Yuya
    Abstract: This study analyzes how the declaration of a state of emergency stemming from COVID-19 affected long-term consumer behavior, i.e., real estate purchasing activity. For our analysis, we define the earliest event that a state of emergency was declared as a treatment and monthly macro data on the real estate market at the county level as an outcome, and construct a panel dataset with various covariates. Using the dataset, we estimated the treatment effect using a difference-in-differences model and found the following; first, the emergency declarations issued by a government do not appear to have affected long-term consumption behavior. Second, this lack of effect remains after excluding various control variables or using a continuous treatment variable.
    Keywords: COVID-19, State of emergency, Housing market
    JEL: I15 I18 R31
    Date: 2020–08–16
  13. By: KUTSUZAWA Ryuji
    Abstract: This paper attempts to estimate the influence on property prices of land use, including commercial, residential or other, earthquake hazard level and commuting distance to work, by employing the repeated sales method using transaction price data for apartments in Tokyo. In Japan, the influence of land use and commuting distance (accessibility) on property price is typically estimated using the hedonic method, but it is criticized that the estimation tends to be biased due to omitted variables. The time-changing effects of the land use and commuting distance could be estimated more appropriately using the repeated sales method which only analyzes multiple dealings of properties on the presumption of properly coping with the problems of sample selection bias. I adopted the repeated sales method with two-step Heckman's analysis to solve the problem of sample selection bias and estimate the time-changing effect of land use and commuting distance on the apartment prices and show that property price is positively influenced by increased commercial land use, reduction of earthquake hazard level and commuting distance index to business areas. Accessibility to the central business area (CBA), the influence of the land use changes and the reduction of earthquake hazard risk on economic activity should be analyzed further using the repeated sales method.
    Date: 2020–05
  14. By: Cutter, W. (Pomona College); Pusch, Alexander (Pomona College)
    Abstract: Cities throughout the world are experimenting with Low Impact Development (LID) strategies to replace ecosystem services degraded by urbanization. Stormwater management may need both centralized/publicly-managed infrastructure and decentralized provision by landowners. For landowners to participate in these programs they will need some latitude in the choice of techniques and siting. However, these landowner choices will affect the bundle of ecosystem services provided (such as infiltration, aesthetics, pollution filtering, and others) as well as their spatial distribution. We studied the Santa Monica (CA) stormwater regulations that require stormwater management on a large portion of development and redevelopment but allow a significant degree of landowner choice over the method of rainwater management. We use a novel dataset to investigate both the cost of rainwater best management practices (BMPs) and landowner choice of rainwater BMP. We find strong evidence of economies of scale in capital costs for the smaller size ranges of the BMPs in our data, and that property factors such as land use and overall redevelopment project cost affect rainwater BMP costs. In addition, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that property factors such as building density and land value are important factors in the landowner’s choice of rainwater management option.
    Keywords: Stormwater, Economies of Scale, BMP choice
    Date: 2020–08–11
  15. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
    Keywords: Development;Economic growth;Gross domestic product;Financial crises;Production;ISCR,CR,reflation,Cashin,inflation target,euro area,inbound tourism
    Date: 2020–02–10
  16. By: Mushkani, Rashid Ahmad; Ono, Haruka
    Abstract: Social distancing, stay home & stay safe and avoiding public space usage has been the slogan to battle against an invisible enemy (COVID-19 pandemic), these measures are placed by the government to minimize transmission of the disease between urban residents, In pace with developed countries many developing countries across the world as well simulated same measures to reduce transmission and contain the disease, although it is believed that the outcomes would be different (WHO, 2020), yet most of the residents are complying with public health officials recommendations, empty street, minimal public spaces, parks and plazas usage are evidence of this scenario. The aim of this paper is to examine the impacts of current situation i.e. COVID-19 pandemic countermeasure on public spaces, propose tentative planning and design incentives for developing countries and encourage research on how the planning and design of our cities can evolve and be more resilient for similar future challenges.
    Date: 2020–07–02
  17. By: Keisuke Kokubun
    Abstract: The threat of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is increasing. Regarding the difference in the infection rate observed in each region, in addition to studies seeking the cause due to differences in the social distance (population density), there is an increasing trend toward studies seeking the cause due to differences in social capital. However, studies have not yet been conducted on whether social capital could influence the infection rate even if it controls the effect of population density. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the relationship between infection rate, population density, and social capital using statistical data for each prefecture. Statistical analysis showed that social capital not only correlates with infection rates and population densities but still has a negative correlation with infection rates controlling for the effects of population density. Besides, controlling the relationship between variables by mean age showed that social capital had a greater correlation with infection rate than population density. In other words, social capital mediates the correlation between population density and infection rates. This means that social distance alone is not enough to deter coronavirus infection, and social capital needs to be recharged.
    Date: 2020–07
  18. By: Bindler, Anna L; Hjalmarsson, Randi
    Abstract: This paper evaluates how the introduction of professional police forces affected crime using two natural experiments in history: the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police (the first police force ever tasked with deterring crime) and the 1839 to 1856 county roll-out of forces in England and Wales. The London Met analysis relies on two complementary data sources. The first, trial data with geocoded crime locations, allows for a difference-in-differences estimation that finds a significant and persistent reduction in robbery but not homicide or burglary. A pre-post analysis of the second source, daily police reports of both cleared and uncleared crime incidents, finds a significant reduction in all violent crimes but offsetting changes in uncleared (decrease) and cleared (increase) property crimes. These (local) reductions in crime are not just due to crime displacement but represent true decreases in overall crime. Difference-in-difference analyses of the county roll-out find that only sufficiently large forces, measured by the population to force ratio, significantly reduced crime. The results are robust to controlling for spill-over effects of neighboring forces.
    Keywords: crime; deterrence; economic history; institutions; Police
    JEL: H0 K42 N93
    Date: 2019–10
  19. By: David Gabauer (Software Competence Center Hagenberg); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria); Hardik A. Marfatia (Northeastern Illinois University); Stephen M. Miller (University of Nevada, Las Vegas)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic connectedness of random shocks to housing prices between the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The paper implements a standard vector autoregressive (VAR) model as well as three VAR models with shrinkage effects – Elastic Net, Lasso, and Ridge VAR models. The transmission of random shocks on a regional basis flows from Southern states to Western states to Midwestern states to Northeastern states. Since VAR models generally confront parameter values between zero and one, the Elastic Net and Lasso VAR models perform the best since the penalty involves the absolute value rather than he squared value as in the Ridge VAR model. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.
    Keywords: Dynamic Connectedness, Elastic Net VAR, Lasso VAR, Ridge VAR, U.S. Housing
    JEL: C32 C52 R31
    Date: 2020–08
  20. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Deniozos, Nikolaos (National and Kapodistrian University of Greece - Department of Turkish Studies and Modern Asian Studies); Katimertzopoulos, Fotios (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Koutroukis, Theodore (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Digkas, Agis-Georgios (National and Kapodistrian University of Greece - Department of Turkish Studies and Modern Asian Studies)
    Abstract: This volume—which is a collection of published articles by the “Stra.Tech.Man Lab” research team—focuses on and examines the dynamics of local systems as the principal contributors to overall socioeconomic development. Our goal is to clarify that local development is a phenomenon that goes beyond the traditional regional analysis and the “conventional” neoclassical theorization of maximization; the dynamics of local development seems to belong in the evolutionary socioeconomic science. The evolutionary and trans-disciplinary approach to local development dynamics focuses on the examination of local-level phenomena while seeking to comprehend how local systems (local innovation environments, local business ecosystems, local clusters) shape their potential of innovation and competitiveness. In our perspective, the scientific discipline of local development studies how socioeconomic systems in today’s era of globalization innovate and compete in their different spatial articulations.
    JEL: F63 O19 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–12–31
  21. By: Barnes, Stephen R.; Beland, Louis-Philippe; Huh, Jason; Kim, Dongwoo
    Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design to study the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on mobility and traffic accidents. Based on data from Google Community Mobility reports and Uniform Traffic Crash Report from the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Develop- ment (LaDOTD), we find that the stay-at-home order led to a large decrease in traffic accidents (-47 percent). In particular, we find a large decrease in accidents involving injury (-46 percent), distracted drivers (-43 percent), and ambulances (-41 percent). We also find evidence of a change in the composition of accidents, with more incidents involving individuals aged 25 to 64, male, and nonwhite drivers. Interestingly, we find no impact on ambulance response time, despite lower traffic. Finally, we document a large decrease in mobility in Louisiana. Our results have important policy implications for traffic management policies.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Lockdown,Accidents,Traffic Management,Regression Discontinuity
    JEL: R20 R41 R42 R48 H41 D62
    Date: 2020
  22. By: David Gabauer (Data Analysis Systems, Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Hardik A. Marfatia (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, USA); Stephen M. Miller (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, USA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic connectedness of random shocks to housing prices between the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The paper implements a standard vector autoregressive (VAR) model as well as three VAR models with shrinkage effects - Elastic Net, Lasso, and Ridge VAR models. The transmission of random shocks on a regional basis flows from Southern states to Western states to Midwestern states to Northeastern states. Since VAR models generally confront parameter values between zero and one, the Elastic Net and Lasso VAR models perform the best since the penalty involves the absolute value rather than he squared value as in the Ridge VAR model. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.
    Keywords: Dynamic Connectedness, Elastic Net VAR, Lasso VAR, Ridge VAR, U.S. Housing
    JEL: C32 C52 R31
    Date: 2020–07
  23. By: Barbour, Elisaa; Grover, Salvador; Lamoureaux, Yulia; Chaudhary, Gyanendra; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: Transit-oriented development—higher density residential or mixed-use development centered around high-quality transit stations—can reduce the need for driving and cut vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. It can also play a role in revitalizing downtowns, improving accessibility for residents, and preserving open space. For these reasons, state and local governments in California have adopted goals and policies to support transit-oriented development. Despite its benefits, transit-oriented development faces multiple barriers. Projects may face more complex planning, financing, and regulatory hurdles, and often entail higher land and development costs compared to greenfield development. Local governments are confronting these challenges through the adoption of innovative policy, planning, and finance tools. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed almost 150 city planning directors in California’s four largest metropolitan areas to better understand cities’ motivations for supporting transit-oriented development, the challenges encountered, and techniques employed in achieving their transit-oriented development goals. The results presented in this policy brief are from the first part of a two-year study. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Financing, Nonmotorized transportation, Policy analysis, Transit oriented development, Transportation planning, Transportation policy, Travel behavior
    Date: 2020–08–01
  24. By: Ferran Espuny Pujol (Clinical Operational Research Unit, University College London); Ruth Hancock (Health Economics Group, University of East Anglia); Morten Hviid (Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia); Marcello Morciano (University College London, University of Manchester); Stephen Pudney (School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of exogenous local conditions which favour high market concentration on supply, price and quality in local markets for care homes for older people in England. We extend the existing literature in: (i) considering supply capacity as a market outcome alongside price and quality; (ii) taking account of the chain structure of care home supply and differences between the nursing home and residential care home sectors; (iii) introducing a new econometric approach based on reduced form relationships that treats market concentration as a jointly-determined outcome of a complex contested market. We find that areas susceptible to a high degree of market concentration tend to have greatly restricted supply of care home places and (to a lesser extent) a higher average public cost, than areas susceptible to low degree of market concentration. There is no significant evidence that conditions favouring high market concentration affect average care home quality.
    Keywords: Care homes; market concentration; price; supply; quality.
    JEL: H75 I11 L22
    Date: 2019–10–23
  25. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter
    Abstract: We use a theoretical political-economy model with three cities and analyze three questions. First, should police in these cities have access to contentious crime fighting technologies such as facial recognition software? We describe a condition involving benefit, cost, and spatial spillover terms which tells us when the police ought to be provided with this technology. Second, if police are to be offered this technology then what are the properties of a policy regime that provides this technology in a decentralized way? We identify a condition that depends only on benefit and cost terms which tells us when this technology is to be made available in the cities in a decentralized way. Finally, what are the properties of a policy regime that provides the technology in a centralized way with equal cost sharing by the cities? We obtain two conditions involving benefit and spatial spillover terms that describe scenarios in which (i) the technology is provided with majority voting in a city even though it is inefficient to do so and (ii) it is efficient to provide the technology in a city but majority voting will lead to this technology not being provided.
    Keywords: Centralization, Decentralization, Political-Economy, Technology, Urban Crime
    JEL: K42 R11 R50
    Date: 2019–11–07
  26. By: Joto, Keigo; Konagane, Joji; Kono, Tatsuhito; Kuwahara, Masao
    Abstract: This paper explores optimal location-dependent but time-invariant peak-load charges on a road and a train in a continuous closed city with bottleneck road congestion and rail overcrowding. In our model, rail and car commuters both choose their departure times, considering their schedule delay costs and dynamically changing transportation costs, and their residential locations. Our theoretical results show that when the bottleneck is located at the fringe of the CBD area (Situation 1), the optimal uniform toll and fares are determined by the difference in price distortions between the train and cars. When the bottleneck on the road is located some distance from the CBD (Situation 2), the optimal uniform toll and fares are represented by price distortions of the cars and train, respectively. Our quantitative results show that, in Situation 1, our toll and fares can achieve 25% of the first-best welfare gains, whereas, in Situation 2, our toll and fares can achieve approximately 30% of the first-best welfare gains.
    Keywords: Bottleneck road congestion, Congestion toll, Railway fare, Rail overcrowding
    JEL: H21 H23 R48
    Date: 2020–05–17
  27. By: Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
    Abstract: Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since|as of June 16, 2020|they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neigh- borhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre- treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence in uence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose in uence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
    Keywords: COVID-19,deaths,blacks,redlining,vulnerability,Cook County,Chicago
    JEL: I14 J15 N32 N92 R38
    Date: 2020
  28. By: Tam\'as Krisztin; Philipp Piribauer; Michael W\"ogerer
    Abstract: The paper proposes a Bayesian multinomial logit model to analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion. The specification assumes that the log-odds of each class follow a spatial autoregressive process. Using recent advances in Bayesian computing, our model allows for a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial multinomial logit model. This allows us to assess spillovers between regions and across land use classes. In a series of Monte Carlo studies, we benchmark our model against other competing specifications. The paper also showcases the performance of the proposed specification using European regional data. Our results indicate that spatial dependence plays a key role in land sealing process of cropland and grassland. Moreover, we uncover land sealing spillovers across multiple classes of arable land.
    Date: 2020–08
  29. By: Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Norbert Pfeifer (University of Graz, Austria); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria)
    Abstract: Concerns that Airbnb is crowding-out long-term rentals has led cities around the world to impose limits on the number of days properties may be let via short-term rental platforms. So far, cities set these limits without clear guidance. Using micro-level data for Sydney, we investigate how strict limits need to be to stop such crowding-out. Controlling for differences in location and physical characteristics using hedonic double prediction, matching, and endogenous switching models, we compute the cross-section distribution of Airbnb rent premia (i.e., how much more a landlord could earn per week on Airbnb than on the long-term rental market). Currently the New South-Wales government is considering a 180-day limit on Airbnb rentals in Sydney. Our calculations indicate that with this rule, 95 percent of tax compliant landlords - but only 1 percent of tax-evading landlords - would have an incentive to switch from Airbnb to the long-term rental market. Hence a 180-day limit will be effective if Airbnb hosts pay tax on their rental income, but largely ineffective otherwise.
    Keywords: Airbnb rent-premium; regulating the sharing economy; hedonic prediction; characteristic matching; endogenous switching
    JEL: C13 R31
    Date: 2020–02
  30. By: Geoffrey Ducanes (Economics Department, Ateneo de Manila University); Dina Joana Ocampo (University of the Philippines College of Education and UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies)
    Abstract: The study measures the impact on the school participation of 16 to 17-year-old learners in the Philippines of the implementation of the Senior High School program (SHS), which came into full effect in school year 2017–2018. The SHS program, which extended secondary education in the country from four to six years, was the most ambitious education reform action in the country in recent memory. The study found that the SHS program resulted in an increase in overall school participation rate of at least 13 percentage points among 16 to 17-year-olds. Perhaps more importantly, the increase in school participation rate was found to be highly progressive with those 16 to 17-year-olds in the two bottom income quintiles experiencing the highest increase in school participation rates by a wide margin. The study also found that both male and female students benefited from the program, although the gains appear to be higher for female students. Most of the gains in school participation were also found to occur outside Metro Manila.
    Keywords: education inequality, education reform, senior high school, gender in education
    JEL: I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2020–08
  31. By: Rapanos, Theodoros; Sommer, Marc; Zenou, Yves
    Abstract: We develop a simple Bayesian network game in which players, embedded in a network of social interactions, bear a cost from deviating from the social norm of their peers. All agents face uncertainty about the private benefits and the private and social costs of their actions. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a Bayesian Nash equilibrium and characterize players' optimal actions. We then show that denser networks do not necessary increase agents' actions and welfare. We also find that, in some cases, it is optimal for the planner to affect the payoffs of selected individuals rather than all agents in the network. We finally show that having more information is not always beneficial to agents and can, in fact, reduce their welfare. We illustrate all our results in the context of criminal networks in which offenders do not know with certitude the probability of being caught and do not want to be different from their peers in terms of criminal activities.
    Keywords: Bayesian games; beliefs; Conformism; crime; networks; value of information
    JEL: C72 D82 D85 K42
    Date: 2019–10
  32. By: Ellen B. Goldring; Melissa A. Clark; Mollie Rubin; Laura K. Rogers; Jason A. Grissom; Brian Gill; Tim Kautz; Moira McCullough; Michael Neel; Alyson Burnett
    Abstract: In this report, researchers from Mathematica and Vanderbilt University describe the PSI experiences of districts, principal supervisors, and principals; the PSI’s effects on teachers’ perceptions of principals’ performance; and lessons learned from the initiative.
    Keywords: principal, principal supervisor, schools, learning, instructional leadership, school districts
  33. By: M. Keith Chen; Judith A. Chevalier; Elisa F. Long
    Abstract: Nursing homes and other long term-care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and fatalities worldwide. Outbreaks in U.S. nursing homes have persisted despite nationwide visitor restrictions beginning in mid-March. An early report issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identified staff members working in multiple nursing homes as a likely source of spread from the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington to other skilled nursing facilities. The full extent of staff connections between nursing homes---and the crucial role these connections serve in spreading a highly contagious respiratory infection---is currently unknown given the lack of centralized data on cross-facility nursing home employment. In this paper, we perform the first large-scale analysis of nursing home connections via shared staff using device-level geolocation data from 30 million smartphones, and find that 7 percent of smartphones appearing in a nursing home also appeared in at least one other facility---even after visitor restrictions were imposed. We construct network measures of nursing home connectedness and estimate that nursing homes have, on average, connections with 15 other facilities. Controlling for demographic and other factors, a home's staff-network connections and its centrality within the greater network strongly predict COVID-19 cases. Traditional federal regulatory metrics of nursing home quality are unimportant in predicting outbreaks, consistent with recent research. Results suggest that eliminating staff linkages between nursing homes could reduce COVID-19 infections in nursing homes by 44 percent.
    Date: 2020–07
  34. By: Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
    Abstract: Homeownership has historically been an important means for Americans to accumulate wealth—in fact, at more than $15 trillion, housing equity accounts for 16 percent of total U.S. household wealth. Consequently, the U.S. homeownership cycle has triggered large swings in Americans’ net worth over the past twenty-five years. However, the nature of those swings has varied significantly by race and ethnicity, with different demographic groups tracing distinct trajectories through the housing boom, the foreclosure crisis, and the subsequent recovery. Here, we look into the dynamics underlying these divergences and explore some potential explanations.
    Keywords: homeownership; race; household finance; consumer credit panel; diversity
    JEL: D14
    Date: 2020–07–08
  35. By: Chandini Sankaran (Boston College); Olivia Sorrentino (Boston College); Eva Hernandez (Boston College)
    Abstract: We analyze the role of parental involvement on a child’s academic performance by employing multiple proxies for direct and indirect parental involvement in his/her child’s schooling using a large dataset of 11,913 observations from the 2016 National Household Education Survey (NHES (2016)). Our estimations of ordered logit grade models show that children of parents who volunteer in the school or classroom, serve on a school committee, or attend PTO meetings are significantly more likely to receive higher grades; these children are 2.4% to 11% more likely to be making grades of mostly As compared to children of parents who do not engage in these activities. Elementary aged children who are told by their parents to read are also significantly more likely to receive higher grades in school. However, we find that homework help is a noisy proxy for parental involvement. Finally, our analysis uncovers some stark racial and gender disparities in K-12 student performance as well as racial differences in the parental involvement measures.
    Keywords: K-12, school, parental involvement, academic performance
    JEL: I20 I29
    Date: 2020–08–09
  36. By: Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Southern Denmark); Lovenheim, Michael (Cornell University); Siersbæk, Nikolaj (Copenhagen Economics); Wasser, David N. (Cornell University)
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to $12,000), the likelihood of giving birth increases by 0.27 percentage points or 2.32%. These estimates are similar to findings from the US per dollar of home price change, which is surprising given the strong pro-natalist policies and generous government programs in Denmark. We also present the first estimates of the effect of home prices on infant health. Our findings indicate that housing price increases lead to better child health at birth in terms of low birth weight and prematurity, however most of these effects reflect changes in the composition of births. There is no evidence of an effect on health during the first five years of life. These findings are consistent with a lack of credit constraints among homeowner families and with both children and child health being normal goods that are similarly-valued in the US and Denmark.
    Keywords: housing wealth, fertility, child health, birth outcomes
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2020–06
  37. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Management for the Canada focuses on housing finance. Housing finance is broadly resilient, but pockets of vulnerabilities exist. Mortgage finance is dominated by domestic systemically important financial institutions (D-SIFIs) and supported by the government via mortgage insurance, securitization guarantees, and other policies. With a market share of about 70 percent, D-SIFIs focus on prime borrowers, and their lending is backed by their strong balance sheets. The cost of prime mortgage financing is low and little differentiated, with credit risk being under-priced in some segments. Aspects of Canada’s mortgage finance may amplify procyclical effects of falling house prices during severe downturns. Core lenders focus on low-risk mortgage lending. In response to deteriorating household debt-servicing capacity, they may constrain new lending or renewals of maturing uninsured mortgages, potentially adding pressures on the housing market. Alternatively, a sudden adoption of risk-based pricing to accommodate financially weak borrowers might amplify household debt servicing fragility.
    Date: 2020–01–24
  38. By: Thanasis Ziogas; Dimitris Ballas; Sierdjan Koster; Arjen Edzes
    Abstract: This article uses data of subjective Life Satisfaction aggregated to the community level in Canada and examines the spatial interdependencies and spatial spillovers of community happiness. A theoretical model of utility is presented. Using spatial econometric techniques, we find that the utility of community, proxied by subjective measures of life satisfaction, is affected both by the utility of neighbouring communities as well as by the latter's average household income and unemployment rate. Shared cultural traits and institutions may justify such spillovers. The results are robust to the different binary contiguity spatial weights matrices used and to the various econometric models. Clusters of both high-high and low-low in Life Satisfaction communities are also found based on the Moran's I test
    Date: 2020–07
  39. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Innovation becomes widely perceived as the most significant ingredient of socioeconomic development, for all types of organizations, at all spatial levels. This study aims to examine how a specific category of business people understand the phenomenon of innovation in relation to the dimensions of Human Resource Management (HRM) and intra- and external business education and training. It explores in particular how the firms of a less developed regional business ecosystem perceive this triangle of innovation-education-human resources, what is their current image and how this comprehension evolves over the last years. Through field research in firms located in the Greek region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, we highlight these qualitative correlations between innovation, workforce management, training, and education. Our findings suggest that the “image” of these entrepreneurs to these issues lacks interpretive depth and practical cohesion, which is related to pathogenies caused and causing the overall relative socioeconomic underdevelopment in the region. The originality of this research derives from the presentation and analysis of specific firms’ and professionals’ perceptions of innovation, which are relatively far from the standards set by the corresponding modern scientific literature and practice.
    Keywords: Innovation; Stra.Tech.Man approach; education; Human Resource Management; training; less developed regional ecosystem; Eastern Macedonia and Thrace
    JEL: M53 O15 R11 R58
    Date: 2020–06–02
  40. By: Green, Colin P. (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Vaag Iversen, Jon Marius (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))
    Abstract: There has been a recent rapid increase in immigration into Europe, specifically in the form of refugees and asylum seekers. This raises a range of social challenges and a particular focus is education and school systems. A growing body of research investigates the impact of immigrants on native test score performance. In practice this reports very mixed results and a difficulty is that immigrant groups are often pooled together due to data restrictions. We return to this issue using Norwegian register data that allows us to distinguish refugees from other immigrants. Using narrow within-school, within-family comparisons combined with the Norwegian refugee settlement system we demonstrate marked negative effects of refugee children on the test score performance of their native school children classmates. These effects are simply not present for other immigrants, and stem primarily from refugee children who themselves are most at risk of low performance. These negative effects are concentrated on students at most risk of underperformance, boys and children from lower educated backgrounds, and may reflect a lack of compensatory inputs at schools.
    Keywords: refugees, educational attainment
    JEL: J15 I21
    Date: 2020–07
  41. By: Julie Bruch; Jonathan Gellar; Lindsay Cattell; John Hotchkiss; Phil Killewald
    Abstract: This report provides information for administrators, researchers, and student support staff in local education agencies who are interested in identifying students who are likely to have near-term academic problems such as absenteeism, suspensions, poor grades, and low performance on state tests.
    Keywords: attendance, data analysis, dropout prevention, dropout research, grades (scholastic), prediction, predictive measurement, predictive validity, predictor variables, standardized tests, statistical analysis, suspension
  42. By: Paul Brandily (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Clément Brébion (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Simon Briole (PSE - Paris School of Economics, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Laura Khoury (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: While COVID-19 was already responsible for more than 500,000 deaths worldwide as of July 3, 2020, very little is known on the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit country in the world. We nd strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality: it is twice as large in the poorest municipalities compared to other municipalities. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure are likely mechanisms. Overall, these mechanisms accounts for up to 60% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities.
    Keywords: COVID-19,poverty,inequality,mortality,labor market,housing conditions
    Date: 2020–07
  43. By: Daniel J. Wilson
    Abstract: Using high-frequency panel data for U.S. counties, I estimate the full dynamic response of COVID-19 cases and deaths to exogenous movements in mobility and weather. I find several important results. First, weather and mobility are highly correlated and thus omitting either factor when studying the COVID-19 effects of the other is likely to result in substantial omitted variable bias. Second, temperature is found to have a negative and significant effect on future COVID-19 cases and deaths, though the estimated effect is sensitive to which measure of mobility is included in the regression. Third, controlling for weather, overall mobility is found to have a large positive effect on subsequent growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The effects become significant around 2 weeks ahead and persist through around 8 weeks ahead for cases and around 9 weeks ahead for deaths. The peak impact occurs 4 to 6 weeks ahead for cases and around 8 to 9 weeks ahead for deaths. The effects are largest for mobility measured by time spent away from home and time spent at work, though significant effects also are found for time spent at retail and recreation establishments, at transit stations, at grocery stores and pharmacies, and at parks. Fourth, I find that public health non-pharmaceutical interventions affect future COVID-19 cases and deaths, but that their effects work entirely through, and not independent of, individuals' mobility behavior. Lastly, the dynamic effects of mobility on COVID 19 outcomes are found to be generally similar across counties, though there is evidence of larger effects in counties with high cases per capita and that reduced mobility relatively late.
    Keywords: weather; mobility; social distancing; covid-19
    Date: 2020–07–02
  44. By: Acquah, Isaiah; Forson, Joseph Ato; Baah-Ennumh, Theresa Yabaa
    Abstract: High rate of concretization of urban areas presents a challenge to the sustainability of urban farms in Accra Metropolitan Assembly (AMA), as farms are outcompeted to built-up areas for residential and commercial purposes. A major result of this concretization is a growing loss of farmlands in the metropolis. Our study explores the effect of urban growth on livelihood financing and food security of urban farming households. This is an exploratory study based on purposive sampling and snowballing techniques to inquiry. This qualitative study uses interview guides (semi-structured and structured) to collect primary data from farmers in the Accra metropolis. We bolstered this approach with spatial imagery tool to map out changing farm sizes in the metropolis. We find participants displaying greater wakefulness of the community as a key factor of urban farming in relation to food security, income and employment. This was because of inadequate land use planning and support to urban farmers. Some of the significant challenges identified were limited space for farming, limited resources, continuous increase in buildings and inadequate education. Conscious efforts should be made by the assemblies at all levels to develop comprehensive land-use plans to guide urban land management. As part of housing policy, vertical development (storey building) of housing and office accommodation is encouraged rather than horizontal expansion of offices and residential accommodation, which could encourage further growth in buildings. Moreover, the organization of urban farmer associations is a prerequisite to the improvement of urban agriculture.
    Keywords: Urban farming; sustainable livelihoods; sustainable financing; Food security; Ghana;
    JEL: R12 R14 R2 R23
    Date: 2019–05–08
  45. By: Carozzi, Felipe (London School of Economics); Provenzano, Sandro (London School of Economics); Roth, Sefi (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the contiguous United States. To overcome confounding factors, we use two Instrumental Variable (IV) strategies that exploit geological features and historical populations to induce exogenous variation in population density without affecting COVID-19 related deaths directly. We find that density has affected the timing of the outbreak in each county, with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak. However, we find no evidence that population density is linked with COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook and the US Census, we also investigate several possible mechanisms for our findings. We show that population density can affect the timing of outbreaks through higher connectedness of denser location. Furthermore, we find that population density is positively associated with proxies of social distancing and negatively associated with the age of the population, highlighting the importance of these mediating factors.
    Keywords: COVID-19, density, congestion forces
    JEL: I12 R12
    Date: 2020–07
  46. By: Gagliardi, Luisa; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between firm’s perception of market risk and engagement in innovation. We conceptualise this relationship by integrating insights from the management literature on innovation barriers with those derived from the international business and economic geography perspectives on the interplay of ownership and location advantages. By exploiting a firm-level panel dataset based on the UK Innovation Survey for the period 2002–2008, we test the relationship between perception of market risk and innovation behaviour in relation to firm ownership—i.e. multinational enterprises (MNEs) versus single domestic enterprises—and location—across regional contexts characterised by different degrees of technological dynamism. Our main results show that ownership advantages operate as a moderator by fundamentally affecting the direction of the relationship: while MNEs react positively to risk perception, single domestic firms reduce their innovation engagement as a strategy to cope with market uncertainty. Yet, ownership advantages play a pivotal role only in relatively inert or stable contexts, as in technologically dynamic regions differences between domestic firms and MNEs disappear.
    Keywords: Risk perception; Innovation behaviour; Ownership and Location advantages; Community Innovation Survey; UK Regions
    JEL: F23 O31 R11
    Date: 2018–09–01
  47. By: Resnick, Danielle; Sivasubramanian, Bhavna
    Abstract: How do cities build a social contract with their diverse constituencies and foster political trust among the urban poor? This study focuses on informal traders, who constitute a major source of food security and employment in urban Africa. Centered on Ghana’s three main cities, we analyze interviews with metropolitan policymakers and a survey of approximately 1,200 informal traders. The findings show that expectations about reciprocity and procedural justice play a key role in shaping the probability of trusting one’s local government. Lower levels of trust were associated with disappointment over the lack of benefits that accompany tax payments to local assemblies. Moreover, those who had experienced harassment by city authorities were less likely to trust their local government. The analysis demonstrates that political trust at the subnational level deserves greater empirical attention, especially as countries continue to deepen decentralization initiatives and cities strive to meet global development goals around inclusivity.
    Keywords: GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; cities; urban areas; informal sector; urbanization; decentralization; governance; politics; agricultural trade; trade; political trust; informal economy; social contract
    Date: 2020
  48. By: Olle Östensson
    Abstract: The paper reviews what we know about the possibilities of designing and implementing policy measures that raise the contribution of the extractive industries' production/consumption links to economic growth and wellbeing, and reviews how policies pursued by various governments have succeeded. It describes policies used in four areas: local content, employment, downstream processing, and infrastructure, and finds that the policies used have mostly not lived up to expectations. Finally, the outline of a broader, more coordinated approach is sketched out.
    Keywords: Downstream processing, Extractive industries, infrastrucuture, Local content
    Date: 2020
  49. By: Julie Bruch; Jonathan Gellar; Lindsay Cattell; John Hotchkiss; Phil Killewald
    Abstract: The study team collected and linked five academic years of student-level administrative data from Pittsburgh Public Schools (PPS), Propel Schools, and the Allegheny County Department of Human Services (DHS).
    Keywords: attendance, data analysis, dropout prevention, dropout research, grades (scholastic), prediction, predictive measurement, predictive validity, predictor variables, standardized tests, statistical analysis, suspension
  50. By: Oikawa, Masato (Waseda University); Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo); Bessho, Shun-ichiro (University of Tokyo); Noguchi, Haruko (Waseda University)
    Abstract: We evaluate the causal effect of class size (i.e., number of students in a classroom) on incidence of class closure due to flu epidemic in 2015, 2016, and 2017, applying an instrumental variable method with the Maimonides rule to administrative data of public primary and middle school students in one of the largest municipalities within the City of Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Given the classroom area of 63m2 set by regulation in Japan, class size reduction improves social distancing among students in a classroom. We find that class size reduction is effective to reduce class closure due to flu: one unit reduction of class size decreases class closure by about 5%; and forming small classes with 27 students at most, satisfying the social distancing of 1.5 m recommended to prevent droplet infection including influenza and COVID-19, reduces class closure by about 90%. In addition, we find that the older are students, the larger are the effects of class size reduction. Our findings provide supportive evidence for the effectiveness of social distancing policy in primary and middle schools to protect students from droplet infectious disease including COVID-19.
    Keywords: class size, class closure, students health, influenza(flu) epidemic, lesson for COVID-19, COVID-19
    JEL: I18 I21 I28
    Date: 2020–07
  51. By: Eric V. Edmonds; Benjamin Feigenberg; Jessica Leight
    Abstract: Can life skills be taught in early adolescence? Using a clustered randomized control trial, this study analyzes the impact of a school-based life skills intervention in grades six and seven within a sample of 2,459 girls in Rajasthan, India. Our evidence suggests that the intervention is successful in developing stronger life skills including increased agency, more equitable gender norms, and stronger socio-emotional support. Girls also drop out of school at a lower rate: we observe an approximately 25 percent decline in dropout that persists from seventh grade through the transition to high school.
    JEL: I25 J16 O15
    Date: 2020–07
  52. By: Yarlina Yacoub (Faculty of Economics and Business, Tanjungpura University, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Nindya Lestari Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics and Business, Tanjungpura University, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Changes in financial authority as a result of decentralization are expected to make provinces in Indonesia become more flexible in approving their finances. However, it goes beyond central government transfers which make local governments more consumptive, which impacts on the phenomenon of the effect of flypaper. This study aims to identify the influence of the government's fiscal on regional expenditure and identify the effect of flypaper on the regional expenditure in Kalimantan.Methodology/Technique – The research uses panel data from 56 regencies and cities on Kalimantan Island. Pooled least square method is used.Findings – The results show that intergovernmental fiscal revenue has a significant relationship with expenditure. Further, the flypaper effect occurs in regional expenditure which means that districts and cities in Kalimantan are still dependent on the central government to finance regional expenditures. They are not able to maximize their respective regional income.Novelty – These results indicate that the existence of local revenue derived from taxes has not been able to be optimally absorbed. Thus, dependence on intergovernmental transfers is very high. In addition, the flypaper effect also indicated that the intervention of the central government came into regional development planning programs.Type of Paper - Empirical.
    Keywords: Flypaper Effect; Intergovernmental Transfer; Fiscal; Grants.
    JEL: B22 D02 H21 H3
    Date: 2019–12–31
  53. By: Armin Falk (Behavior and Inequality Research Institute (briq) & University of Bonn); Fabian Kosse (LMU Munich & Behavior and Inequality Research Institute (briq)); Pia Pinger (University of Cologne & Behavior and Inequality Research Institute (briq))
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity strikes when two children with the same academic performance are sent to different quality schools because their parents differ in socio-economic status. Based on a novel dataset for Germany, we demonstrate that children are significantly less likely to enter the academic track if they come from low socio-economic status (SES) families,even after conditioning on prior measures of school performance. We then provide causal evidence that a low-intensity mentoring program can improve long-run education outcomes of low SES children and reduce inequality of opportunity. Low SES children, who were randomly assigned to a mentor for one year are 20 percent more likely to enter a high track program. The mentoring relationship affects both parents and children and has positive long-term implications for children's educational trajectories.
    Keywords: mentoring, childhood intervention programs, education, human capital investments, inequality of opportunity, socio-economic status
    JEL: C90 I24 J24 J62
    Date: 2020–06
  54. By: David Meunier
    Abstract: This paper discusses whether changes in mobility practices affect value of travel time savings. It considers the relationship between the theory of the value of time and its practical application in traffic models and cost-benefit analysis. The discussion covers the need to distinguish variations in utility due to changes in the quantity and quality of time spent in travelling, the relationships between changes in value of time and mobility practices and between collective and individual values of time.
    Date: 2020–01–31
  55. By: Chen, Xi; Yan, Binjian; Gill, Thomas M.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the extent to which childhood circumstances contribute to health inequality in old age and evaluates the importance of major domains of childhood circumstances to health inequalities in the USA and China. We link two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2013 and 2015 with the newly released 2014 Life History Survey (LHS), and two waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in 2014 and 2016 with the newly released 2015 Life History Mail Survey (LHMS) in the USA, to quantify health inequality due to childhood circumstances for which they have little control. Using the Shapley value decomposition approach, we show that childhood circumstances may explain 7-16 percent and 14-30 percent of health inequality in old age in China and the USA, respectively. Specifically, the contribution of childhood circumstances to health inequality is larger in the USA than in China for self-rated health, mental health, and physical health. Examining domains of childhood circumstance, regional and rural/urban status contribute more to health inequality in China, while family socioeconomic status (SES) contributes more to health inequality in the USA. Our findings support the value of a life course approach in identifying the key determinants of health in old age. Distinguishing sources of health inequality and rectifying inequality due to early childhood circumstances should be the basis of policy promoting health equity.
    Keywords: Life course approach,Inequality of opportunity,Self-rated health,Mental health,Frailty,Childhood circumstances
    JEL: I14 J13 J14 O57
    Date: 2020
  56. By: Sándor Juhasz; Tom Broekel; Ron Boschma
    Abstract: Relatedness has become a key concept for studying the diversification of firms, regions, and countries. However, studies tend to treat relatedness as being time-invariant or, alternatively, consider its evolution as exogenously given. This study argues that relatedness is inherently dynamic and endogenous to technological and economic developments. Using patent data, we test the extent to which relatedness between technologies developed along co-location and differences in technological complexity in the period 1980-2010. Our results show that co-located technologies are more likely to become related over time. Moreover, our results suggest that co-location and complexity of technologies are conducive to the intensification of relatedness over time.
    Keywords: co-agglomeration, complexity, Geography, relatedness
    JEL: O33 R12
    Date: 2020–08
  57. By: Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens
    Abstract: Based on rich novel survey data on almost 5,000 working age adults, we document that 35.2 percent of the workforce worked entirely from home in May 2020, up from 8.2 percent in February 2020. Highly educated, high-income and white individuals were much more likely to shift to remote work and to maintain employment following the virus outbreak. Using available estimates of the potential number of home-based workers suggests that a large majority (71.7 percent) of U.S. workers that could work from home, effectively did so in May. We provide some evidence indicating that apart from the potential for home-based work, industry business conditions and labor demand also mattered for employment outcomes following the virus outbreak.
    Keywords: COVID-19; working from home; telecommuting; social distancing; employment
    JEL: J1 J2 J22 I18 R4
    Date: 2020–06–23
  58. By: Bôckerman, Rikhard Petri; Haapanen, Mika; Jepsen, Christopher; Roulet, Alexandra
    Abstract: We examine the effects of a comprehensive school reform on mental health. The reform postponed the tracking of students into vocational and academic schools from age 11 to age 16. The reform was implemented gradually across Finnish municipalities between 1972 and 1977. We use difference-in-differences variation and administrative data. Our results show that there is no discernible effect on mental health related hospitalisations on average even though the effect is precisely estimated. Heterogeneity analysis shows that, after the reform, females from highly-educated families were more likely to be hospitalised for depression.
    Keywords: comprehensive school; Depression; hospitalisation; mental health; Tracking age
    JEL: I12 I26 I28
    Date: 2019–10
  59. By: Armin Falk; Fabian Kosse; Pia Pinger
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity strikes when two children with the same academic performance are sent to different quality schools because their parents differ in socio-economic status. Based on a novel dataset for Germany, we demonstrate that children are significantly less likely to enter the academic track if they come from low socio-economic status (SES) families, even after conditioning on prior measures of school performance. We then provide causal evidence that a low-intensity mentoring program can improve long-run education outcomes of low SES children and reduce inequality of opportunity. Low SES children, who were randomly assigned to a mentor for one year are 20 percent more likely to enter a high track program. The mentoring relationship affects both parents and children and has positive long-term implications for children’s educational trajectories.
    Keywords: mentoring, childhood intervention programs, education, human capital investments, inequality of opportunity, socio-economic status
    JEL: C90 I24 J24 J62
    Date: 2020
  60. By: Assaad, Ragui; Ginn, Thomas; Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: Mass influxes of refugees have potentially large effects on host countries; while labor market impacts are frequently studied, outcomes like children's education could also be affected. This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on the educational attainment of Jordanians. Combining detailed household surveys with school-level records on the density of Syrians, we study both quantity and quality of education for the hosts using a differences-in-differences design across refugee prevalence and birth cohort. We find no evidence that greater exposure to Syrian refugees affected the attainment of Jordanians; adding a second, donor-funded shift in high-Syrian areas appears sufficient to mitigate potential over-crowding.
    Keywords: education; Impact of Refugees; Jordan; Middle East
    JEL: F22 I21 N35 O15
    Date: 2019–10
  61. By: Estrada, Ricardo; Lombardi, María
    Abstract: This paper documents a novel stylized fact: many teachers in Latin America have very low levels of cognitive skills. This skills deficit is the result of both low levels of competencies among the population and a gap between the average skill level of teachers and the rest of the tertiary-educated population (i.e., a teacher skills gap). Furthermore, we observe that individuals with a teaching degree have lower average skills than individuals with other tertiary degrees, and that this gap is larger than the teacher skills gap. This difference is mainly explained by the selection into teaching of graduates from non-teaching degrees. Finally, we show that even controlling for cognitive skills, teachers have lower monthly wages than other professionals, and provide direct evidence that this gap is increasing in skills.
    Keywords: Desarrollo, Educación, Equidad e inclusión social,
    Date: 2020
  62. By: Brucal, Arlan; Lynham, John
    Abstract: Rising sea levels necessitate careful consideration of different forms of coastal protection but cost-benefit analysis is limited when important non-market social costs have not been measured. Seawalls protect individual properties but can potentially impose negative externalities on neighboring properties via accelerated beach loss. We conduct a hedonic valuation of seawalls in two coastal California counties: San Diego and Santa Cruz. We find no strong evidence to suggest that the presence of a seawall is positively correlated with the value of the home protected. However, we find that seawalls are strongly negatively correlated with the value of neighboring properties in Santa Cruz but not in San Diego county, suggesting that the effect of seawalls depend on certain geographical attributes. Our results are robust to accounting for the public-good nature of locational attributes and the potential spatial dependence of housing prices. Simulation reveals that doubling the extent of seawalls in San Diego and Santa Cruz could reduce property tax revenues by $7 million and $54 million, respectively.
    Keywords: Seawalls; Hedonic valuation; Coastal erosion; Property values; ES/R009708/1
    JEL: H23 Q26 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2020–06–04
  63. By: Hanhorster, Heike; Wessendorf, Susanne
    Abstract: Research on socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods with high numbers of migrants tends to problematise such areas as hindering upward social mobility and further enhancing disadvantage. However, an emerging body of research on arrival areas is highlighting how such areas can provide newcomers with specific arrival resources, helping them to come to grips with their new circumstances. This article provides a conceptual overview and discussion of this newly emerging body of literature on urban arrival areas in the Global North. It argues that arrival areas offer infrastructures which can provide important support for newcomers, ranging from overcoming day-to-day problems to potentially enabling social mobility. In many cases, previous migrants act as knowledge brokers facilitating newcomers’ access to resources. The article shows how different forms of arrival-specific knowledge can be found in these areas, facilitating the exchange of resources across different migrant groups and across localities. However, arrival-specific infrastructures can be both enabling and disabling with regard to social mobility, as they often emerge in contexts of underlying disadvantage and discrimination where access to resources such as housing and jobs can be highly contentious. The article argues that understanding the dynamics of urban arrival areas and infrastructures and their specific role in providing resources for newcomers can contribute to our knowledge on integration and help us rethink the role of policymaking and urban planning in increasingly complex and mobile urban societies.
    Keywords: Arrival areas; Arrival infrastructures; Diversity; Integration; Migration
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–05–12
  64. By: Krishnan,Nandini; Russo Riva,Flavio Luiz; Sharma,Dhiraj; Vishwanath,Tara
    Abstract: The Syrian crisis has led to rapid and large-scale population displacement. This paper has two main aims. (i) It documents the size and timing of the Syrian refugee influx into Jordan, Lebanon, and Kurdistan, characterizing the forced nature of displacement and exploring factors that influenced the decision to flee and subsequently move within the host country. (ii) The paper describes the daily living conditions of refugees after displacement, documenting vulnerability along several dimensions, such as housing access and quality, labor market attachment, and financial security. The data sources include the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees'registration database and multi-country, multi-topic surveys conducted in 2015-16.
    Keywords: Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Governance and Management,Educational Sciences,Social Cohesion,Health Care Services Industry,Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–07–21
  65. By: Scott Baumgartner; Daniel Friend; Pamela Holcomb; Elizabeth Clary; Heather Zaveri; Amy Overcash
    Abstract: This report presents the four RF Pathways-to-Outcomes models, related to outcomes for which at least one program in the PACT evaluation had statistically significant impacts: (1) healthy relationships between co-parents, (2) father development and well-being, (3) consistent employment; and (4) parenting skills and father involvement.
    Keywords: responsible fatherhood, PACT
  66. By: Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
    Abstract: Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization, making it the major driver of the UK economy. But its strengths have also made the city particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of COVID-19, and potentially also to wider negative economic implications of the crisis. Many of London’s key sectors rely on proximity, agglomeration economies and externalities. We evaluate the available data on the impact of the pandemic on London to date, with a particular focus on the differential effects between sectors. We also identify seven key trends, affecting both the demand and supply side of the economy, that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term economic impacts, and assess the potential impacts on London’s major industrial sectors. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value personal and household services, posing a number of significant policy challenges.
    Keywords: COVID-19,London,agglomeration economies,migration,services
    JEL: J11 J24 J61 R11
    Date: 2020
  67. By: Katimertzopoulos, Fotios (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Koutroukis, Theodore (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: In an era of policy-driven systematic encouragement of local innovation processes, the concept of regional innovation systems has been arisen to produce, promote and cultivate the region’s competitive advantage. The key reason for developing specific targeted policy measures within the regional innovation context is to focus on improving local business capacity, competitiveness and performance, including its business ecosystem. From this point of view, it is of crucial importance to promote interactions between different innovative actors who have good reasons to intersect, such as interactions between companies and universities or research institutes, or between small start-ups and larger businesses. These interactions may include interactive local learning and productive knowledge diffusion but they should also include the wider business community and governance framework. Therefore, this study investigates whether policy strategies could be geared towards the promotion of accessibility "to the development of a regional innovation system" and the "development of local comparative advantages" associated with the specific local resources, mainly in less developed business ecosystems. Prior research studies undertaken in less developed business ecosystems indicate that companies themselves will grow in terms of regional development, mainly through innovating. Therefore, in order for local businesses in less developed ecosystems to lay the foundations for effective innovation they must adapt, improve and grow some essential internal business dimensions and variables, such as strategy, technology and management potential (Stra.Tech.Man. innovation theory). In this respect, the present study suggests the conception, analysis and interference of the mechanism of development in terms of the regional competitiveness web. Overall, this academic paper is a conceptual research (Integrative review) that performs a literature review of several field research in regional innovation systems and less developed local business ecosystems, with the overall objective of identifying those variables (such as strategy, technology and management) that could contribute towards effective business innovation and long-term stable growth.
    Keywords: regional innovation system; regional competitiveness web; business ecosystem; less developed business ecosystem; Stra.Tech.Man innovation theory
    JEL: L26 L50 R58
    Date: 2020–05–17
  68. By: Hiroyuki Egami (Graduate School of Policy Studies, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan); Jorge Luis Garcia (Clemson University, Atlanta, USA); Wang Tong (Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Japan)
    Abstract: We provide evidence of a boost to fertility caused by nuclear power plants' operation as such power plants create jobs in the surrounding area. We use household-level data from the Japanese population census (1980-2010) and link each household to granular location information. We exploit—plausibly exogenous—geographical variations in distance to a nuclear power plant from each household to identify the job creation effect. We find that the operation of a nuclear power plant leads to a 10% increase in fertility in the surrounding areas—which is an underpopulated area. We also find that marriage and employment increase in areas close to a nuclear power plant. The estimates of instrumented difference-in-difference method suggest that an additional employment leads to a higher probability of having children born. On top of that, this work sets out to investigate the effect of large subsidies provided to local governments after the constructions of nuclear power plants. We utilize observations of households located close to the borders of the municipality to identify the causal impact of local government spending on fertility decision. The results suggest that having a larger local government’s budget and subsequent provision of better-quality public services contribute to higher fertility.
    Keywords: Fertility, Employment, Subsidy, Japan, Nuclear power plan
    Date: 2020–07
  69. By: Jochen Güntner
    Abstract: Elections may take place in precarious environments that even pose health risks. I consider the case of Bavaria, where close to ten million people were asked to vote in the municipal elections on March 15 of 2020, to quantify the toll of elections in a pandemic. Despite declaring a state of emergency on the very next day, two weeks later, Bavaria had left behind any other German state in terms of COVID-19 infections and deaths per capita. Using district-level health, demographic, and economic data, I nd that at least 3,700 or 15% of the cumulative increase in positive test results between March 15 and April 4 are explained by a dummy variable for Bavaria. Across Bavarian districts, a 1% increase in voter participation is associated with an additional 13.6 positive tests and 1.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants over the following three weeks.
    Keywords: COVID-19, municipal elections, pandemic, synthetic control method
    JEL: H11 H12 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–08
  70. By: Sanguinetti, Angela; Ferguson, Beth; Oka, Jamie; Alston-Stepnitz, Eli; Kurani, Kenneth
    Abstract: Robo-taxis (automated vehicles operating in a ride-hailing model) have the potential to improve mobility while reducing traffic, emissions, and energy use. However, such outcomes depend largely on increasing riders per vehicle. Public policy that incentivizes industry to design robo-taxis to support ride-pooling may be critical to achieving positive outcomes. This research reviews current shared automated vehicle designs and literature related to potential consumer risks and benefits of ride-pooling in robo-taxis in order to articulate potential design solutions to promote pooling.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automated vehicles, Ride-sharing, Ride-pooling, Design
    Date: 2020–08–01
  71. By: Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer
    Abstract: This paper studies the intergenerational impact of parental job loss on school performance during the Great Recession in Spain. Collecting data through parental surveys in a school in the province of Barcelona, I obtain information about the parental labour market status before and after the Great Recession. I can then link this information to repeated information on their children’s school performance, for a sample of over 300 students. Using individual fixed effects, the estimates show a negative and significant decrease on average grades of around 15% of a standard deviation after father’s job loss. These results are mainly driven by those students whose fathers suffer long unemployment spells. In contrast, the average impact of mother’s job loss on school performance is close to zero and non-significant. The decline in school performance during the Great Recession after father’s job loss, particularly among disadvantaged students, could result in detrimental long-term effects that might contribute to increased inequality. This could be an important and underemphasised cost of recessions.
    Keywords: Great Recession; parental job loss; school performance
    JEL: I20 J63 J65
    Date: 2020–05–29
  72. By: Kleven, Henrik; Landais, Camille; Muñoz, Mathilde; Stantcheva, Stefanie
    Abstract: In this article, we review a growing empirical literature on the effects of personal taxation on the geographic mobility of people and discuss its policy implications. We start by laying out the empirical challenges that prevented progress in this area and then discuss how recent work has made use of new data sources and quasi-experimental approaches to credibly estimate migration responses. This body of work has shown that certain segments of the labor market, especially high-income workers and professions with little location-specific human capital, may be quite responsive to taxes in their location decisions. When considering the implications for tax policy design, we distinguish between uncoordinated and coordinated tax policy. We highlight the importance of recognizing that mobility elasticities are not exogenous, structural parameters. They can vary greatly depending on the population being analyzed, the size of the tax jurisdiction, the extent of tax policy coordination, and a range of non-tax policies. While migration responses add to the efficiency costs of redistributing income, we caution against over-using the recent evidence of (sizeable) mobility responses to taxes as an argument for less redistribution in a globalized world.
    JEL: H23 H24 H71 H73 H87
    Date: 2020–03–01
  73. By: Georg von Graevenitz (Queen Mary University London, School of Business and Management); Stuart J. H. Graham (Georgina Institute of Technology); Amanda Myers (United States Patent & Trademark Office)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new innovation data source to re-examine how spatial distance affects the diffusion of ideas and innovations in an economy. We exploit the descriptions of products and services contained in U.S. trademark registrations during 1980-2012 to identify terms (tokens) not previously used by firms to describe products and services. From these we select tokens frequently re-used by follower firms. By linking the new tokens to the business addresses of innovator and follower firms, our data encompass all instances in which innovations captured by trademark tokens arise within and diffuse across the United States. We aggregate innovations at the year and ZIP code level and estimate Poisson models of the likelihood and intensity of diffusion between locations. After endogenising the creation of new diffusion links between ZIP codes, our results show that spatial distance no longer affects the creation of diffusion links within the US after 1996. However, contingent on previous diffusion from a sending to a receiving ZIP code, we find persistent, strong and negative effects of greater spatial distance on the intensity (extent) of diffusion for existing transfer links between locations within the US.
    Keywords: Innovation, Diffusion, Rate of Diffusion, Distance, Innovation Index, Trademarks, Patents
    JEL: O3 O51 R1 R32
    Date: 2019–08–01
  74. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, via Mersin 10, Northern Cyprus, Turkey); Elie Bouri (USEK Business School, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Clement Kweku Kyei (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)
    Abstract: We analyse the ability of a newspaper-based economic sentiment index of the United States to predict housing market movements using daily data over the period 2nd August, 2007 to 19th June, 2020. For this purpose, we use a k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, which allows us to test for predictability over the entire conditional distribution of not only housing returns, but also volatility, by controlling for misspecification due to nonlinearity and structural breaks – both of which we show to exist between housing returns and the economic sentiment index. Our results show that economic sentiment does indeed predict housing returns (unlike the conditional mean-based, i.e., linear, Granger causality test and volatility), barring the extreme upper ends of the respective conditional distributions. Our results have important implications for academics, policymakers, and investors.
    Keywords: Economic Sentiment; Housing Returns and Volatility; Higher-Order Nonparametric Causality in Quantiles Test
    JEL: C22 C32 R30
    Date: 2020–07
  75. By: Michael Bailey; Drew Johnston; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Bogdan State; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: In this online appendix we provide additional information and analyses to support "The Determinants of Social Connectedness in Europe." We include a number of case studies illustrating how language, history, and other factors have shaped European social networks. We also look at the effects of social connectedness. Our results provide empirical support for theoretical models that suggest social networks play an important role in individuals' travel decisions. We study variation in the degree of connectedness of regions to other European countries, finding a negative correlation between Euroscepticism and greater levels of international connection.
    Date: 2020–07
  76. By: Timothy DeStefano (OECD); Filipe Silva (OECD); Sho Haneda (Nihon University); Hyeog Ug Kwon (Nihon University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of structural adjustment in Japan and identifies several factors that explain the use of certain employment types. Its findings are based on a novel plant-level dataset that provides considerable detail on the types of employees used by Japanese manufacturers between 2001 and 2014. Analysis of this dataset shows that growth in the diffusion of robotics is linked to fewer non-regular employees, which seems to be partially driven by the positive association between robot adoption and the dismissal of certain types of non-regular workers. It also finds that offshoring from Japan to other countries contributes to the use of both regular and non-regular workers, while higher plant productivity is related to the use of more regular workers. Finally, establishments that experienced job dismissals appear to substitute non-regular workers for regular workers.
    Keywords: Employment composition, Layoffs, Structural adjustment
    JEL: J21 J23
    Date: 2020–08–20
  77. By: Monica Maduekwe (Praia, Cabo Verde); Uduak Akpan (SPIDER) Solutions Nigeria, Uyo, Nigeria); Salisu Isihak (Rural Electrification Agency, Abuja, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The “Avoid†, “Shift†and “Improve†(A-S-I) approach is an effective method for transforming an unsustainable transport system to a sustainable one. This study intends to examine the possible impact of the A-S-I policy measures in transforming the transportation system in Lagos - the most populous city and the commercial capital of Nigeria. The study employs the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to project future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions to determine the most effective A-S-I option for the city. We construct a business-as-usual scenario for Lagos as well as sustainable road transport alternative policy scenarios. The results show that Lagos’ biggest obstacle to achieving its emission reduction target is the presence of very old vehicles on its roads. Our analysis shows that emission reduction in the road transport sector in Lagos is sensitive to vehicle survivability rate (i.e. the fraction of vehicles of a certain age still driven). We conclude that unless the age limit of vehicles in Lagos reduces from 40 years to 22 years, vehicle growth rate from 5% to 2% and mileage by 2% per year from 2020- 2032, Lagos may not achieve the target 50% emission reduction by 2032.
    Keywords: Road transport, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, LEAP, Lagos, Nigeria
    Date: 2020–01
  78. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This article aims to critically review the advancements in the study of contemporary dynamics of local development under the prism of the analytical perspectives of growth poles and clusters. We proceed to a literature review of clusters and growth poles and attempt an analytical synthesis. The analysis of growth poles appears to remain within the interpretive limits of traditional economic geography, focusing mainly on the dimension of regional agglomerations. At the same time, the broader literature on clusters deals more with interdisciplinary issues in their global perspective by starting increasingly its analysis from the micro-dynamics articulated at the firm level. This article proposes a conceptual extension to the analysis of the current dynamics of local development in the framework of the “competitiveness web” that takes into account all the interdependent levels of space and actors.
    Keywords: Local development; Growth poles; Clusters; Helix theory; Competitiveness web
    JEL: F63 O19 O39 R11 R58
    Date: 2020–01–21
  79. By: W. Scott Frame; Eva Steiner
    Abstract: An emerging literature documents a link between central bank quantitative easing (QE) and financial institution credit risk-taking. This paper tests the complementary hypothesis that QE may also affect financial risk-taking. We study Agency MREITs – levered shadow banks that invest in guaranteed U.S. Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) principally funded with repo debt. We show that Agency MREIT growth is inversely related to the Federal Reserve’s Agency MBS purchases, reflecting investor portfolio rebalancing. We also find that these institutions increased leverage during the later stages of QE, consistent with “reaching for yield” behavior. Agency MREITs seem to concurrently adjust their liquidity and interest rate risk profiles.
    Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Risk Taking; GSEs; Mortgages; Agency MBS
    JEL: E58 G21 G23 G28
    Date: 2020–06–30
  80. By: Buscha, Franz (University of Westminster); Gorman, Emma (University of Westminster); Sturgis, Patrick (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Social mobility—the extent to which social and economic position in adulthood is facilitated or constrained by family origins—has taken an increasingly prominent role in public and policy discourse. Recent studies have documented that not only who your parents are, but also where you grow up, influences subsequent life chances. We bring these two concepts together to study trends in social mobility in England and Wales, in three post-war generations, using linked Decennial Census data. We estimate rates of occupational social class mobility by sex and region of origin. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in rates of absolute and relative mobility as well as how these have changed over time. While rates of upward mobility increased in every region between the mid-1950s and the early 1980s, this upward shift varied across different parts of the country, and tailed off for more recent cohorts. We also explore the role of domestic migration in understanding these temporal and spatial patterns, finding that those who stayed in their region of origin had lower rates of upward mobility compared to those who moved out, although this difference also narrowed over time. While policy discussion has focused almost entirely on national-level trends in social mobility, our results emphasise the need to also consider persistent spatial inequalities.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, social mobility, regional economics, spatial mobility
    JEL: J62 J61 J21 I24 I26 R12
    Date: 2020–07
  81. By: Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Jason Barr
    Abstract: This paper provides a synthesis of the state of knowledge on the economics of skyscrapers. First, we document how vertical urban growth has gained pace over the course of the 20th century. Second, we lay out a simple theoretical model of optimal building heights in a competitive market to rationalize this trend. Third, we provide estimates of a range of parameters that shape the urban height profile along with a summary of the related theoretical and empirical literature. Fourth, we discuss factors outside the competitive market framework that explain the rich variation in building height over short distances, such as durability of the structures, height competition, and building regulations. Fifth, we suggest priority areas for future research into the vertical dimension of cities.
    Keywords: density, economics, history, skyscraper, urban
    JEL: R30 N90
    Date: 2020
  82. By: Dasgupta, Utteeyo; Mani, Subha; Sharma, Smriti; Singhal, Saurabh
    Abstract: We exploit the variation in admission cutoffs across colleges at a leading Indian university to estimate the causal effects of enrolling in a selective college on cognitive attainment, economic preferences, and Big Five personality traits. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that enrolling in a selective college improves university exam scores of the marginally admitted females, and makes them less overconfident and less risk averse, while males in selective colleges experience a decline in extraversion and conscientiousness. We find differences in peer quality and rank concerns to be driving our findings.
    Keywords: College Quality,Peer Effects,Rank Concerns,Regression Discontinuity,India
    JEL: I23 C9 C14 J24 O15
    Date: 2020
  83. By: Jonas Heiberg; Christian Binz; Bernhard Truffer
    Abstract: Research in economic geography has recently been challenged to adopt more institutional and multi-scalar perspectives on industrial path development. This paper contributes to this debate by integrating insights from (evolutionary) economic geography, as well as transition and innovation studies into a conceptual framework of how path creation in emerging industries depends on the availability of both knowledge and legitimacy. Unlike the extant literature, we argue here, that not only the former but also the latter may substantially depend on non-local sources, which hithero have largely been overseen. Conceptually, we distinguish between multi-scalar export, attraction and absorption of legitimacy. Coupled with conventional knowledge indicators, this approach enables us to reconstruct how not only external knowledge sourcing but also multi-scalar institutional dynamics contribute to countries’ ability to leverage the potential of different path creation constellations in an emerging industry. Methodologically, we develop legitimation indicators from a global media database, which was built around the case of modular water technologies. Cross-comparing the evidence from six key countries (India, Israel, Singapore, South Africa, UK, USA) with differing path creation constellations allows us to hypothesize how multi-scalar legitimation influences a country’s prospects for creating a radically new industrial path.
    Keywords: Evolutionary economic geography, path creation, legitimation, institutional dynamics, multi-scalarity, modular water technologies
    JEL: O33 O31 D85 L95
    Date: 2020–08
  84. By: Jan Aleksander Baran (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The paper investigates persistency of overeducation from individual perspective. Following aspects of mobility are analysed: probability of staying in employment, upward occupational mobility and wage dynamics. Data for Poland are used. The results show that overeducated individuals are more likely to stay in employment compared to their properly matched colleagues. The overeducated workers as well as undereducated ones tend to move toward jobs for which they are more properly matched. However, the rate of this adjustment is low and one can fairly claim that in Poland overeducation is a persistent phenomenon from individual perspective. In line with other studies, the overeducated workers are found to experience faster wage growth compared to properly matched individuals. However, it can be largely attributed to overeducated workers improving their match status over time. It means that initially overeducated workers can expect faster wage growth than properly matched workers especially when they move to jobs requiring more schooling.
    Keywords: overeducation, educational mismatch, occupational mobility, earnings mobility
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2020
  85. By: Abdulloev, Ilhom (Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation, Tajikistan)
    Abstract: We examine how the forsaken schooling phenomenon in migration evolved over time in Tajikistan. After completing compulsory schooling at ages 16-17, young men in Tajikistan are forsaking professional education because of opportunities to migrate for higher paid low-skilled jobs in the Russian Federation. We study how the forsaken schooling effect changed because of migrant-receiving Russia's recent tightened migration policy and economic slowdown, and policies promoting fair access to professional education in migrant-sending Tajikistan.
    Keywords: migration, traps, education, skill
    JEL: O15 P46 F22 I24
    Date: 2020–07
  86. By: Kai Barron (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin); Heike Harmgart (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London); Steffen Huck (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin); Sebastian Schneider (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)
    Abstract: We measure the prevalence of discrimination between Jordanian host and Syrian refugee children attending school in Jordan. Using a simple sharing experiment, we find only little discrimination. Among the Jordanian children, however, we see that those who descended from Palestinian refugees do not discriminate at all, suggesting that a family history of refugee status can generate solidarity with new refugees. We also find that parents’ narratives about the refugee crisis are correlated with the degree of discrimination, suggesting that discriminatory preferences are being transmitted through parental attitudes.
    Keywords: Discrimination, refugees, children, experiment, integration
    JEL: C91 D90 J15 C93 J13
    Date: 2020–06
  87. By: Albinowski, Maciej (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS))
    Abstract: Since 2008, Poland has been among the EU countries that have increased their minimum wage levels the most, following period in the mid-2000s during which the country's minimum wage was barely raised. We evaluate the impact of these minimum wage hikes on employment and wage growth in Poland between 2004 and 2018. We estimate panel data models utilising the considerable variation in wage levels, and in minimum wage bites, across 73 Polish NUTS 3 regions. We find that minimum wage hikes had a significant positive effect on wage growth and a significant negative effect on employment growth only in regions of Poland that were in the first tercile of the regional wage distribution in 2007. These effects were moderate in size, and appear to be more relevant for wages. Specifically, we show that if the ratio of minimum wage to average wage had remained constant after 2007, by 2018, the average wages in these regions would have been 3.4% lower, while employment would have been 1.2% higher. On the other hand, in the remaining two-thirds of Polish regions, we find no significant effects of minimum wage hikes on average wages or on employment. We also find indicative evidence that the effects on employment growth differ between groups of workers: i.e., that they are negative for men and for workers in industry, but they are positive for women and for workers in services.
    Keywords: minimum wage, spatial heterogeneity, panel data
    JEL: J21 J23 J38
    Date: 2020–06
  88. By: Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Michael Scholz (University of Graz, Austria); Chihiro (University of Tokyo, Japan); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria)
    Abstract: The rolling-time-dummy (RTD) method is used by a number of countries to compute their official house price indexes (HPIs), since it requires less data and is more flexible than other hedonic methods. These features also make it well suited for computing higher frequency HPIs (e.g., monthly or weekly). In this paper we address three key issues relating to the RTD hedonic method. First, we develop a method for determining the optimal length of the rolling window. Second, we consider variants on the standard way of linking the current period with earlier periods, and show how the optimal linking method can be determined. Third, we propose three ways of modifying the RTD method to make it robust to the distorting effects of the covid-19 shutdown. These modifications could prove useful for countries using the RTD method in their official HPIs.
    Keywords: House price index; Hedonic quality adjustment; Optimal window length; Optimal chain linking; Higher frequency indexes; Covid-19 shutdown.
    JEL: C43 E31 R31
    Date: 2020–08
  89. By: Andrew F. Haughwout; Haoyang Liu; Xiaohan Zhang
    Abstract: More than two million American households are at risk of eviction every year. Evictions have been found to cause prolonged homelessness, worsened health conditions, and lack of credit access. During the COVID-19 outbreak, governments at all levels implemented eviction moratoriums to keep renters in their homes. As these moratoriums and enhanced income supports for unemployed workers come to an end, the possibility of a wave of evictions in the second half of the year is drawing increased attention. Despite the importance of evictions and related policies, very few economic studies have been done on this topic. With the exception of the Milwaukee Area Renters Study, evictions are rarely measured in economic surveys. To fill this gap, we conducted a novel national survey on evictions within the Housing Module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) in 2019 and 2020. This post describes our findings.
    Keywords: evictions; homeownership; credit access; diversity
    JEL: R31
    Date: 2020–07–08
  90. By: Hellerstein, Judith K. (University of Maryland); Neumark, David (University of California, Irvine)
    Abstract: One definition of social capital is the "networks of relationships among people who live and work in a particular society, enabling that society to function effectively". This definition of social capital highlights two key features. First, it refers to connections between people, shifting our focus from characteristics of individuals and families to the ties between them. Second, it emphasizes that social capital is present not simply because individuals are connected, but rather when these network relationships lead to productive social outcomes. In that sense, social capital is productive capital, in the same way that economists think of physical capital or human capital as productive capital. Social capital, under this definition, is still very broad. Networks can be formed along many dimensions of society in which people interact – neighborhoods, workplaces, extended families, schools, etc. We focus on networks whose existence fosters social capital in one specific way: by facilitating the transfer of information that helps improve the economic wellbeing of network members, especially via better labor market outcomes. We review evidence showing that networks play this important role in labor market outcomes, as well as in other outcomes related to economic wellbeing, paying particular attention to evidence of how networks can help less-skilled individuals. We also discuss the measurement of social capital, including new empirical methods in machine learning that might provide new evidence on the underlying connections that do – or might – lead to productive networks. Throughout, we discuss the policy implications of what we know so far about networks and social capital.
    Keywords: social capital, networks
    JEL: J1 J8
    Date: 2020–06
  91. By: Davide Dottori (Bank of Italy, Ancona regional branch)
    Abstract: Increased robot diffusion has raised concerns for its possible negative impact on employment. Following an empirical approach in line with those applied to the US and Germany with contrasting results, this paper provides evidence about the effect of robots on employment outcomes in Italy (second European economy for robot stock) from the early 1990s up to 2016, both at the local labour market (LLM) level and at the worker level. In order to purge from demand and other confounding shocks, the identification relies on an instrumental variables strategy based on robots’ sectoral growth in other European countries. No harmful impact on total employment emerges from the LLM analysis; the estimated effect is negative when limited to manufacturing employment, but its statistical significance is weak or absent once concurrent trends relating to trade and ICT are controlled for. Results at the worker level show that incumbent workers in manufacturing were not damaged on average, with an overall positive (though not large) employment effect, driven by longer working relationships with the original firm; conditional on them remaining at the original firm, the impact is also positive on wages. On the other hand, robot diffusion turns out to have contributed to reshaping the sectoral distribution of the new labour force inflows towards less robot intensive industries.
    Keywords: robot, automation, employment, local labour markets, wages
    JEL: J23 J31 L11 L60 O33 R11
    Date: 2020–07

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