nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒07‒13
sixty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. First Impressions: The Case of Teacher Racial Bias By Rangel, Marcos A.; Shi, Ying
  2. The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England By Koster, Hans R.A.
  3. The Value of Time: Evidence From Auctioned Cab Rides By Buchholz, Nicholas; Doval, Laura; Kastl, Jakub; Matejka, Filip; Salz, Tobias
  4. Impact of COVID-19 Behavioral Inertia on Reopening Strategies for New York City Transit By Ding Wang; Brian Yueshuai He; Jingqin Gao; Joseph Y. J. Chow; Kaan Ozbay; Shri Iyer
  5. Why some places are left-behind: urban adjustment to trade and policy shocks By Venables, Anthony
  6. Cities and Smoking By Michael Darden
  7. Improving Transportation Information Resilience: Error Estimation for Networked Sensor Data By Fan, Yueyue; Yang, Han; Maheshwari, Saurabh; Yang, Yudi
  8. Path dependence in regional structural change: implications for the EU cohesion and innovation policy By Tullio Buccellato; Giancarlo Corò
  9. Infection Rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by Geographical Units: A Model-based Estimation from Mortality Data By Kulu, Hill; Dorey, Peter
  10. The skill development of children of immigrants By Marie Hull; Jonathan Norris
  11. Mismatch of Jobs and People: Do Migration Constraints Put Racial Minorities at a Disadvantage? By Kalee Burns; Julie L. Hotchkiss
  12. The long-run effects of peers on mental health By Lukas Kiessling; Jonathan Norris
  13. Occupational Matching and Cities By Theodore Papageorgiou
  14. Preparation and Experiences of New Teachers in the Sociopolitical Context of Heightened Immigration Enforcement By Kirksey, J. Jacob
  15. Males at the Tails: How Socioeconomic Status Shapes the Gender Gap By David Autor; David N. Figlio; Krzysztof Karbownik; Jeffrey Roth; Melanie Wasserman
  16. Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market: Comment By Scrimgeour, Dean
  17. Paesani versus Paisanos: The Relative Failure of Spanish Immigrants in Buenos Aires during the Age of Mass Migration By Leticia Arroyo Abad; Noel Maurer; Blanca Sánchez-Alonso
  18. External Validity: Four Models of Improving Student Achievement By Annie Duflo; Jessica Kiessel; Adrienne Lucas
  19. Persistent legacy of the 1075–1919 Vietnamese imperial examinations in contemporary quantity and quality of education By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  20. Transportation Infrastructure in the US By Matthew Turner; Gilles Duranton; Geetika Nagpal
  21. Spatial Economic Aspects of Climate Change By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Folmer, Henk
  22. Spatial Economics for Granular Settings By Jonathan I. Dingel; Felix Tintelnot
  23. The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics By Alejandro Cuñat; Robert Zymek
  24. Immigrant Inventors and Diversity in the Age of Mass Migration By Campo, Francesco; Mendola, Mariapia; Morrison, Andrea; Ottaviano, Gianmarco
  25. Wildfire Crime and Social Vulnerability in Italy: A Panel Investigation. By Canepa,Alessandra; Drogo,Federico
  26. Inequalities in home learning and schools’ provision of distance teaching during school closure of COVID-19 lockdown in the UK By Bayrakdar, Sait; Güveli, Ayse
  27. Geographic Clustering and Resource Reallocation Across Firms in Chinese Industries By Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Chenggang; Yang, Xiyi
  28. Comparative Advantage and Gender Gap in STEM By Goulas, Sofoklis; Griselda, Silvia; Megalokonomou, Rigissa
  29. Inflation and Labor Migration: Modelling the Venezuelan Case By Ademir Rocha; Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Fernando Perobelli
  30. Does Pre-School Improve Child Development and Affect the Quality of Parent-Child Interaction? Evidence from Algeria By Lassassi, Moundir
  31. Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China By Pauline Rossi; Yun Xiao
  32. Weeks after the Raid: The Immediate and Sustained Changes in Student Attendance Rates Following Immigration Arrests By Kirksey, J. Jacob
  33. Internet and politics: evidence from U.K. local elections and local government policies By Gavazza, Alessandro; Nardotto, Mattia; Valletti, Tommaso
  34. Mobility Zones By Ferdinando Monte
  35. The chicken or the egg: Technology adoption and network infrastructure in the market for electric vehicles By Nathan Delacrétaz; Bruno Lanz; Jeremy van Dijk
  36. Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity By Janke, Katharina; Lee, Kevin; Propper, Carol; Shields, Kalvinder K; Shields, Michael
  37. Mentoring and Schooling Decisions: Causal Evidence By Falk, Armin; Kosse, Fabian; Pinger, Pia
  38. Gender Differences in Negotiation: Evidence from Real Estate Transactions By Steffen Andersen; Julie Marx; Kasper Meisner Nielsen; Lise Vesterlund
  39. Did increasing new refugees’ access to social housing reduce homelessness? Evidence from a quasi-experiment By Zhang, Meng Le; Cheung, Sin Yi; Phillimore, Jenny
  40. Universities, agglomeration, and regional innovation By Orlando, Michael; Verba, Michael; Weiler, Stefan
  41. Skin Tone Differences in Social Mobility in Mexico: Are We Forgetting Regional Variance? By , Stone Center; Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel; Vélez-Grajales, Roberto
  42. A Structural Estimation of the Disutility of Commuting By KONDO Keisuke
  43. What’s Driving Entrepreneurship and Innovation in the Transport Sector? By Derrick Choe; Alexander Oettl; Robert Seamans
  44. Coordination and Contagion: Individual Connections and Peer Mechanisms in a Randomized Field Experiment By Philip Babcock; Kelly Bedard; Stefanie Fischer; John Hartman
  45. Attitudes toward migrants in a highly impacted economy: evidence from the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan By Alrababa'h, Ala'; Williamson, Scott; Dillon, Andrea Balacar; Hangartner, Dominik; Hainmueller, Jens
  46. Lost Wages: The COVID-19 Cost of School Closures By Psacharopoulos, George; Collis, Victoria; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Vegas, Emiliana
  47. Consumption Insurance in Networks with Asymmetric Information By Orazio Attanasio; Sonya Krutikova
  48. The impact of housing subsidy cuts on the labour market outcomes of claimants: evidence from England By Daniel Borebly
  49. The Causal Impact of Socio-Emotional Skills Training on Educational Success By Eisner, Manuel; Ribeaud, Denis; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zölitz, Ulf
  50. Franchise extension and fiscal structure in the United Kingdom 1820-1913: A new test of the Redistribution Hypothesis By Aidt, T.; Winer, S.; Zhang, P.
  51. Household Finance By Gomes, Francisco J; Haliassos, Michael; Ramadorai, Tarun
  52. Prussia Disaggregated: The Demography of Its Universe of Localities in 1871 By Sascha O. Becker; Francesco Cinnirella
  53. The Impact of Infrastructure Investments on Income Inequality: Evidence from US States By Emma Hooper; Sanjay Peters; Patrick Pintus
  54. Evaluating the Effects of Housing Interventions on Multidimensional Poverty: The Case of TECHO-Argentina By Ann Mitchell, Jimena Maccio
  55. Synopsis: Geography of public service delivery in rural Ethiopia By Abate, Gashaw T.; Dereje, Mekdim; Hirvonen, Kalle; Minten, Bart
  56. The price of remoteness: Product availability and local cost of living in Ethiopia By Martin, Julien; Mayneris, Florian; Theophile, Ewane
  57. Determinants of Ethnic Identity among Adolescents: Evidence from New Zealand By Mohana Mondal; Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot
  58. Selective Migration, Occupational Choice, and the Wage Returns to College Majors By Ransom, Tyler
  59. Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States By Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
  60. Should Regulatory Impact Assessment Have a Role in Sweden’s Transport Planning? By Lena Nerhagen; Sara Forsstedt
  61. Police Response Times and Injury Outcomes By DeAngelo, Gregory; Toger, Marina; Weisburd, Sarit
  62. The Economics of Urban Density By Gilles Duranton; Diego Puga
  63. Effects of International Migration on Child Schooling and Child Labour: Evidence from Nepal By Hari Sharma; John Gibson
  64. The Path to College Education: The Role of Math and Verbal Skills By Esteban Aucejo; Jonathan James
  65. Local public goods and the geography of economic activity By Arthur Guillouzouic--Le Corff

  1. By: Rangel, Marcos A. (Duke University); Shi, Ying (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: We study racial bias and the persistence of first impressions in the context of education. Teachers who begin their careers in classrooms with large black-white score gaps carry negative views into evaluations of future cohorts of black students. Our evidence is based on novel data on blind evaluations and non-blind public school teacher assessments of fourth and fifth graders in North Carolina. Negative first impressions lead teachers to be significantly less likely to over-rate but not more likely to under-rate black students' math and reading skills relative to their white classmates. Teachers' perceptions are sensitive to the lowest-performing black students in early classrooms, but non-responsive to highest-performing ones. This is consistent with the operation of confirmatory biases. Since teacher expectations can shape grading patterns and sorting into academic tracks as well as students' own beliefs and behaviors, these findings suggest that novice teacher initial experiences may contribute to the persistence of racial gaps in educational achievement and attainment.
    Keywords: racial bias, first impressions, teachers, racial disparities
    JEL: I24 J15
    Date: 2020–06
  2. By: Koster, Hans R.A.
    Abstract: I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where 13% of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I estimate a quantitative general equilibrium model that includes amenities, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity and household location choices. To identify causal effects of greenbelt land, I construct counterfactual greenbelts, use greenbelt land in 1973, or focus on areas within a km of greenbelt boundaries. I show that greenbelt policy generates positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. Overall, the residents' income increase that would be necessary to compensate for the presence of greenbelts is about 3%; hence, residents are worse off. By contrast, greenbelt policy benefits land owners as total land revenues are about 7.5% higher due to greenbelts. Total net welfare effects appear to be small, but distributional effects are large.
    Keywords: Gravity; greenbelts; Housing; open space; supply constraints; urban growth boundary
    JEL: G10 R30
    Date: 2020–03
  3. By: Buchholz, Nicholas; Doval, Laura; Kastl, Jakub; Matejka, Filip; Salz, Tobias
    Abstract: We estimate valuations of time using detailed consumer choice data from a large European ride hail platform, where drivers bid on trips and consumers choose between a set of potential rides with different prices and waiting times. We estimate consumer demand as a function of prices and waiting times. While demand is responsive to both, price elasticities are on average four times higher than waiting-time elasticities. We show how these estimates can be mapped into values of time that vary by place, person, and time of day. Regarding variation within a day, the value of time during non-work hours is 16% lower than during work hours. Regarding the spatial dimension, our value of time measures are highly correlated both with real estate prices and urban GPS travel flows. We apply our measures to quantify the opportunity cost of traffic congestion in Prague, which we estimate at $483,000 per day.
    Date: 2020–04
  4. By: Ding Wang; Brian Yueshuai He; Jingqin Gao; Joseph Y. J. Chow; Kaan Ozbay; Shri Iyer
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. A baseline model was previously developed and calibrated for pre-COVID conditions as MATSim-NYC. A new COVID model is calibrated that represents travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic by recalibrating the population agendas to include work-from-home and re-estimating the mode choice model for MATSim-NYC to fit observed traffic and transit ridership data. Assuming the change in behavior exhibits inertia during reopening, we analyze the increase in car traffic due to the phased reopen plan guided by the state government of New York. Four reopening phases and two reopening scenarios (with and without transit capacity restrictions) are analyzed. A Phase 4 reopening with 100% transit capacity may only see as much as 73% of pre-COVID ridership and an increase in the number of car trips by as much as 142% of pre-pandemic levels. Limiting transit capacity to 50% would decrease transit ridership further from 73% to 64% while increasing car trips to as much as 143% of pre-pandemic levels. While the increase appears small, the impact on consumer surplus is disproportionately large due to already increased traffic congestion. Many of the trips also get shifted to other modes like micromobility. The findings imply that a transit capacity restriction policy during reopening needs to be accompanied by (1) support for micromobility modes, particularly in non-Manhattan boroughs, and (2) congestion alleviation policies that focus on reducing traffic in Manhattan, such as cordon-based pricing.
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Venables, Anthony
    Abstract: Economic adjustment to trade and policy shocks is hampered by the fact that some sectors tend to cluster, so are hard to initiate in new places. This can give rise to persistent spatial disparities between cities within a country. The paper sets out a two-sector model in which cities divide into those producing tradable goods or services subject to agglomeration economies, and those only producing non-tradables for the national market. If import competition destroys some established tradable sectors, then affected cities fail to attract new tradable activities and switch to just produce non-tradables. Full employment is maintained (we assume perfect markets and price flexibility) but disparities between the two types of cities are increased. All non-tradable cities experience real income loss, while remaining tradable cities boom. The main beneficiaries are land-owners in remaining tradable cities, but there may be aggregate loss as the country ends up with too many cities producing non-tradables, and too few with internationally competitive activities. Fiscal policy has opposite effects in the two types of cities, with fiscal contraction causing decline in cities producing non-tradables, increasing activity in cities producing tradable goods, widening spatial disparities, and in the process increasing the share of rent in the economy
    Keywords: deindustrialisation; Divergence; Fiscal policy; lagging regions; Urban Economics
    JEL: E62 F60 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–03
  6. By: Michael Darden
    Abstract: In 1956, 52% of urban men and 42% of rural men smoked cigarettes. By 2010, the disparity had flipped: 24.7% of urban men and 30.6% of rural men smoked. Smoking remains the greatest preventable cause of mortality in the United States, and understanding the underlying causes of place-specific differences in behavior is crucial for policy aimed at reducing regional inequality. Using geocoded data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I estimate a dynamic model that captures smoking behavior, location decisions, and education over thirty years. Simulation of the estimated model demonstrates that selection on permanent unobserved variables that are correlated with smoking cessation, both in native populations and in those who migrate between rural and urban areas, explains 62.8$\%$ of the urban/rural smoking disparity. Alternatively, differential tobacco control policies explain only 7.3% of the urban/rural smoking disparity, which suggests that equalizing cigarette taxes across regions may fail to bridge gaps in behavior and health. This paper emphasizes that rural smoking disparities are largely driven by who selects into rural communities.
    JEL: H2 I12
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Fan, Yueyue; Yang, Han; Maheshwari, Saurabh; Yang, Yudi
    Abstract: Nowadays, the effectiveness of any smart transportation management or control strategy would heavily depend on reliable traffic data collected by sensors. Two problems regarding sensor data quality have received attention: first, the problem of identifying malfunctioning sensors; second, reconstruction of traffic flow. Most existing studies concerned about identifying completely malfunctioning sensors whose data should be discarded. This project focuses on the problem of error detection and data recovery of partially malfunctioning sensors that could provide valuable information. By integrating a sensor measurement error model and a transportation network model, the authors propose a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) based estimation approach to determine the parameters of systematic and random errors of traffic sensors in a road network. The proposed method allows flexible data aggregation that ameliorates identification and accuracy. The estimates regarding both systematic and random errors are utilized to conduct hypothesis test on sensor health and to estimate true traffic flows with observed counts. The results of three network examples with different scales demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method in a large variety of scenarios. This research improves fundamental knowledge on transportation data analytics as well as the effective management of data and information infrastructure in transportation practice. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Sensor health, error estimation, information resilience, data science, traffic network
    Date: 2020–06–01
  8. By: Tullio Buccellato (Economic Research Department, Confindustria); Giancarlo Corò (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: The key purpose of this paper is to measure the strength of regional economic fabrics based on their structure. We propose a new mapping of European regions based on structural proximity; the representation takes the shape of a network, which is also useful to define clusters of regions according to the similarity of their economic structures and, hence, in the endowment of productive competences. We show that there is a high persistence in the relative positioning of regions according to their economic structure and that this is markedly associated with patterns of economic growth and convergence. The spectrum of regional performance range from virtuous urban agglomerates characterized by the presence of advanced services, with enhanced institutional quality, endowed with efficient transport infrastructures and highly educated and productive workforce, to regions characterised by scarce service or industrial activity, sometimes with a cumbersome role of tourism-related business, with poor institutions and transport infrastructure and low endowments of human capital and productive workforce. To richer pools of productive competences are associated faster paces of economic growth. The findings of this paper suggest that place-based policies should be implemented to support territorial development in the short/medium term, but these policies can be effective for the long run growth only when they are meant to leverage on the regional pool of competences to trace trajectories of structural change.
    Keywords: Resilience, economic complexity, regional disparities
    JEL: O10 O25 P25 R10 L16
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Kulu, Hill; Dorey, Peter
    Abstract: This study estimates cumulative infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units and investigates spatial patterns in infection rates. We propose a model-based approach to calculate cumulative infection rates from data on observed and expected deaths from Covid-19. Our analysis of mortality data shows that between 5 and 6% of people in Great Britain were infected by Covid-19 by the last third of April 2020. It is unlikely that the infection rate was lower than 3% or higher than 12%. Secondly, England had higher infection rates than Scotland and Wales, although the differences between countries were not large. Thirdly, we observed a substantial variation in virus infection rates in Great Britain by geographical units. Estimated infection rates were highest in the capital city of London where more than 10% of the population might have been infected and also in other major urban regions, while the lowest were in small towns and rural areas. Finally, spatial regression analysis showed that the virus infection rates increased with the increasing population density of the area and the level of deprivation. The results suggest that people from lower socioeconomic groups in urban areas (including those with minority backgrounds) were most affected by the spread of coronavirus in March and April.
    Date: 2020–05–21
  10. By: Marie Hull (UNC Greensboro and IZA); Jonathan Norris (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the evolution of cognitive and noncognitive skills gaps for children of immigrants between kindergarten and 5th grade using two cohorts of elementary school students. We find some evidence that children of immigrants begin school with lower math scores than children of natives, but this gap disappears in later elementary school. For noncognitive skills, children of immigrants and children of natives score similarly in early elementary school, but a positive gap opens up in 2nd grade. We find that the growth in noncognitive skills is driven by disadvantaged immigrant students. We discuss potential explanations for the observed patterns of skill development as well as the implications of our results for the labor market prospects of children of immigrants.
    Keywords: children of immigrants, test scores, noncognitive skills, early life development
    JEL: I21 J13 J15
    Date: 2020–05
  11. By: Kalee Burns; Julie L. Hotchkiss
    Abstract: Using the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2017, this article explores the evidence for potential migration constraints by comparing distributions of people and jobs across race and education. Using the Delta Index of dissimilarity, it illustrates a greater distributional mismatch between workers and jobs among racial minorities, relative to White non-Hispanics. This mismatch suggests greater migration constraints among racial minorities.
    Keywords: people-based; social costs; Delta Index; racial labor market disparities; mismatch; migration costs; place-based
    JEL: J15 J18 J61
    Date: 2020–06–14
  12. By: Lukas Kiessling (Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Jonathan Norris (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: This paper studies how peers in school affect students’ mental health. Guided by a theoretical framework, we find that increasing students’ relative ranks in their cohorts by one standard deviation improves their mental health by 6% of a standard deviation conditional on own ability. These effects are more pronounced for low-ability students, persistent for at least 14 years, and carry over to economic long-run outcomes. Moreover, we document a strong asymmetry: Students who receive negative rather than positive shocks react more strongly. Our findings therefore provide evidence on how the school environment can have long-lasting consequences for the well-being of individuals.
    Keywords: Peer Effects, Mental Health, Depression, Rank Effects
    JEL: I21 I14 J24
    Date: 2020–06
  13. By: Theodore Papageorgiou (Boston College)
    Abstract: In this paper, I document that workers in larger cities have significantly more occupational options than workers in smaller ones. They are able to form better occupational matches and earn higher wages. I also note differences in the occupational reallocation patterns across cities. I develop a dynamic model of occupational choice that microfounds agglomeration economies and captures the empirical patterns. The calibration of the model suggests that better occupational match quality accounts for approximately 35% of the observed wage premium and a third of the greater inequality in larger cities.
    Keywords: Occupations, Agglomeration Economies, Urban Wage Premium, Multi-armed Bandits, Geographical Mobility, Matching Theory, Wage Inequality, Job Vacancy Postings
    JEL: J24 J31 R23
    Date: 2020–06–14
  14. By: Kirksey, J. Jacob (University of California, Santa Barbara)
    Abstract: Now more than ever, teacher preparation programs (TPPs) are being held accountable by policymakers to ensure teachers possess the knowledge and skills to support student success even when students experience significant challenges outside of school. For teachers of immigrant-origin students and their peers, one challenge is ensuring these students are successful, even when they are experiencing stressors in times of heightened immigration enforcement. This study examines whether new teachers experience the impacts of immigration enforcement and are prepared to support students who are impacted. Using survey data collected from seven TPPs in preservice and after one year of in-service teaching (n=473), findings suggest new teachers report experiencing impacts from immigration enforcement on their students and themselves. Results suggest discussion of immigration policy and engagement with immigrant families in preservice was linked with feelings of preparedness to support students. Differences for teachers in urban, Title I, and elementary settings are discussed.
    Date: 2020–06–12
  15. By: David Autor; David N. Figlio; Krzysztof Karbownik; Jeffrey Roth; Melanie Wasserman
    Abstract: Analyzing Florida birth certificates matched to school records, we document that the female advantage in childhood behavioral and academic outcomes is driven by gender gaps at the extremes of the outcome distribution. Using unconditional quantile regression, we investigate whether family socioeconomic status (SES) differentially affects the lower tail outcomes of boys. We find that the differential effects of family SES on boys’ outcomes are concentrated in the parts of the distribution where the gender gaps are most pronounced. Accounting for the disproportionate effects of family environment on boys at the tails substantially narrows the gender gap in high school dropout.
    JEL: I24 J12 J13 J16
    Date: 2020–05
  16. By: Scrimgeour, Dean (Department of Economics, Colgate University)
    Abstract: Using American Housing Survey data from 1999 only, Ngai and Tenreyro (2014) show households who move in the summer occupy their home for longer and have fewer and less costly renovations soon after purchase, pointing to superior match quality during the thicker summer market. However, applying the same methods to other years of the American Housing Survey eliminates or substantially weakens these results. Furthermore, Ngai and Tenreyro’s result on duration of occupancy is driven in part by the particular way Ngai and Tenreyro measure duration in years, rather than months.
    Keywords: housing, seasonality, duration models
    JEL: R21 R31
    Date: 2020–06–09
  17. By: Leticia Arroyo Abad (City University of New York); Noel Maurer (George Washington University); Blanca Sánchez-Alonso (Universidad San Pablo-CEU)
    Abstract: Millions of immigrants chose Argentina as the land of opportunity during the era of mass migration. Two immigrant groups, Italians and Spaniards, dominated the immigration flows. Despite higher literacy and their linguistic advantages, in Buenos Aires Spaniards fared worse when compared to Italians. By 1895, Italians enjoyed higher wages. What explains their paths in the city of Buenos Aires? We find that the Italian community capitalized upon pre-existing cultural traditions to establish denser and more effective networks to match their compatriots with economic opportunities. The more individualistic Spanish were unable to keep pace, despite their initial cultural, linguistic, and educational advantages.
    Keywords: migration, networks, Buenos Aires.
    JEL: N36 F22
    Date: 2020–06
  18. By: Annie Duflo; Jessica Kiessel; Adrienne Lucas
    Abstract: Randomized controlled trials in lower-income countries have demonstrated ways to increase learning, in specific settings. This study uses a large-scale, nationwide RCT in Ghana to show the external validity of four school-based interventions inspired by other RCTs. Even though the government implemented the programs within existing systems, student learning increased across all four models, more so for female than male students, and many gains persisted one year after the program ended. Three of the four interventions had a similar cost effectiveness. The intervention that directly targeted classroom teachers increased the likelihood that teachers were engaged with students.
    JEL: I21 I25 I28 J24 O15
    Date: 2020–06
  19. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We investigated the impact of individuals who passed the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075–1919) on the present-day quantity and quality of education in their home districts. We layered the 2009 Population and Housing Census and the 2009 National Entrance Exams to University (NEEU) test scores on the geographical distribution of imperial test takers’ home districts. We constructed a novel instrumental variable representing the average distance between the examinees’ home districts and the corresponding imperial examination venues. We found a persistent legacy in the average years of schooling, literacy rate, school attendance rate, NEEU test scores, and primary school dropout rate.
    Keywords: Education; Human Capital; Imperial Examination; Historical Legacy; Vietnam
    JEL: I25 N35 O15
    Date: 2020–05–03
  20. By: Matthew Turner; Gilles Duranton; Geetika Nagpal
    Abstract: Support for massive investments in transportation infrastructure, possibly with a change in the share of spending on transit, seems widespread. Such proposals are often motivated by the belief that our infrastructure is crumbling, that infrastructure causes economic growth, that current funding regimes disadvantage rural drivers at the expense of urban public transit, or that capacity expansions will reduce congestion. In fact, most US transportation infrastructure is not deteriorating and the existing scientific literature and does not show that infrastructure creates growth or reduces congestion. However, current annual expenditure on public transit buses exceeds that on interstate construction and maintenance. The evidence suggests the importance of an examination of how funding is allocated across modes but not of massive new expenditures.
    JEL: R1 R4
    Date: 2020–05
  21. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Folmer, Henk
    Abstract: Our objective in this special issue is twofold. First, we emphasize the importance of comprehending that the global impacts of climate change notwithstanding, there are salient region-specific impacts that vary across space. Second, given this observation, we show how rigorous modeling of the connections between climate change and (i) land use changes, (ii) forestry, (iii) infrastructure, and (iv) local labor markets sheds light on a variety of climate change induced spatial economic effects. Following this introductory paper, there are seven additional papers in this special issue. Each of these papers discusses a particular research question at the interface of what we call “climate change and space.”
    Keywords: Forestry, Infrastructure, Land Use, Local Labor Market, Space
    JEL: Q54 R11
    Date: 2020–03–11
  22. By: Jonathan I. Dingel; Felix Tintelnot
    Abstract: We introduce a general-equilibrium model of a “granular” spatial economy populated by a finite number of people. Our quantitative model is designed for application to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study economic outcomes for regions, cities, and neighborhoods. Conventional approaches invoking the law of large numbers are ill-suited for such empirical settings. We evaluate quantitative spatial models’ out-of-sample predictions using event studies of large office openings in New York City. Our granular framework improves upon the conventional continuum-of-individuals model, which perfectly fits the pre-event data but produces predictions uncorrelated with the observed changes in commuting flows.
    JEL: C25 F16 R1 R13 R23
    Date: 2020–05
  23. By: Alejandro Cuñat; Robert Zymek
    Abstract: Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological frame-work with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.
    Keywords: epidemics, Covid-19, gravity, regional mobility
    JEL: E65 F14 F17 J61 R23
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Campo, Francesco (University of Milan Bicocca); Mendola, Mariapia (University of Milan Bicocca); Morrison, Andrea (Bocconi University); Ottaviano, Gianmarco (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: A possible unintended but damaging consequence of anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the policies it inspires, is that they may put high-skilled immigrants off more than low-skilled ones at times when countries and businesses intensify their competition for global talent. We investigate this argument following the location choices of thousands of immigrant inventors across US counties during the Age of Mass Migration. To do so we combine a unique USPTO historical patent dataset with Census data and exploit exogenous variation in both immigration flows and diversity induced by former settlements, WWI and the 1920s Immigration Acts. We find that co-ethnic networks play an important role in attracting immigrant inventors. However, we also find that immigrant diversity acts as an additional significant pull factor. This is mainly due to externalities that foster immigrant inventors' innovativeness. These findings are relevant for today's advanced economies that have become major receivers of migrant flows and, in a long-term perspective, have started thinking about immigration in terms of not only level but also composition.
    Keywords: international migration, cultural diversity, innovation
    JEL: F22 J61 O31
    Date: 2020–06
  25. By: Canepa,Alessandra; Drogo,Federico (University of Turin)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the socio-economic determinants of wildfire crime in Italy using panel data at regional level. Using fixed effect Poisson models and fixed effect quantile panel regression analysis it is found that social vulnerability factors such as poverty, organised crime and income inequality play an important role in driving wildfire crime. The quantile regression analysis highlights a significant heterogeneity of the effects of driving factors across the Italian peninsula. Finally, we also extend our analysis to investigate the effect of economic downturns on wildfire crime and we find a positive correlation between a deterioration of per capita income and wildfire crime.
    Date: 2019–03
  26. By: Bayrakdar, Sait; Güveli, Ayse
    Abstract: Parents and schools were caught unprepared during the COVID-19 school closure. Since schools have a key role in creating equal opportunities, transferring schooling to families is likely to increase learning inequalities. Using the Understandings Society COVID-19 dataset, we find children who received free school meals, children from lower-educated and singleparent families and children with Pakistani or Bangladeshi backgrounds devote significantly less time to schoolwork at home. Schools’ provisions of offline and online distance teaching and homework checking significantly increase the time children spend on home learning and mitigate most of the disadvantages.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  27. By: Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Chenggang; Yang, Xiyi
    Abstract: We examine the effects of China's industrial clustering on resource reallocation efficiency across firms. Based on our county-industry level DBI index panel, we find that industrial clustering significantly increases local industries' productivity by lifting the average firm productivity and reallocating resources from less to more productive firms. Moreover, we find major mechanisms through which resource reallocation is improved within clusters: (i) clusters facilitate higher entry rates and exit rates; and (ii) within clusters' environment the dispersion of individual firm's markup is significantly reduced, indicating intensified local competition within clusters. The identification issues are carefully addressed by instrumental variable (IV) regressions.
    Keywords: Competition; Industrial Cluster; Productivity Growth; Resource reallocation
    JEL: D2 H7 L1 O1 R1 R3
    Date: 2020–03
  28. By: Goulas, Sofoklis (Stanford University); Griselda, Silvia (University of Melbourne); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (University of Queensland)
    Abstract: Why are females compared to males both more likely to have strong STEM-related performance and less likely to study STEM later on? We exploit random assignment of students to classrooms in Greece to identify the impact of comparative advantage in STEM relative to non-STEM subjects on STEM specialization decisions. We approximate comparative STEM advantage using the within-classroom ranking of the ratio of early-high school performance in STEM over non-STEM subjects. We find that females who are assigned to classroom peers among which they have a higher comparative STEM advantage are more likely to choose a STEM school track and apply to a STEM degree. Comparative STEM advantage appears irrelevant for males. Our results suggest that comparative STEM advantage explains at least 12% of the under-representation of qualified females in the earliest instance of STEM specialization. We discuss the mechanisms that amplify the role of comparative STEM advantage in STEM study.
    Keywords: gender gap, STEM, random peer effects, ordinal rank, absolute advantage, comparative advantage
    JEL: I21 I24 J24
    Date: 2020–06
  29. By: Ademir Rocha; Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Fernando Perobelli
    Abstract: The Venezuelan hyperinflation process has caused serious economic and social consequences. The wave of migrants and refugees fleeing the country is one of the most obvious and important faces of the problem. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that can explain labor migration flow from changes in price level and apply it to the Venezuelan reality. We make use of a theoreticalmethodological framework related to the New Economic Geography. Results from our model's simulations show that, in the short run (1-year simulation horizon), Venezuelan industrial and agricultural workers will tend to migrate to nearby countries, such as Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru. However, in the long run (10-year simulation horizon), agents seem to decide based on real wage differential. This explains why industrial workers have a propensity to migrate to Chile, Panama, Peru and Mexico, while agricultural workers have an incentive to move to Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Brazil.
    Keywords: Inflation; Migration; Venezuela; New Economic Geography
    JEL: J61 E31 R10
    Date: 2020–06–18
  30. By: Lassassi, Moundir
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of attending early childcare on the quality of parent–child interactions and children’s cognitive outcomes. My identification strategy exploits geographical differences in terms of exposure to the program, controlling for the period when the program is implemented across Algerian municipalities as an instrument for individual early childcare attendance. I estimate 2SLS regression analysis and employ a difference-in-difference strategy. I use two Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys conducted in 2006 and 2012. I find a positive effect of preschool on the cognitive development of children. In turn, the effect is only significant for mother with negative effect on the interaction between mother and children, which means that there is a substitution effect, mother use this time to do something else. These findings call for future research on parents’, especially mother’s, time use when their children attend early childcare.
    Keywords: Childcare,Cognitive skills,Family–child interaction,Time use,two stage least squares,Difference-in-difference
    JEL: J13 H75 I20 I28
    Date: 2020
  31. By: Pauline Rossi (University of Amsterdam); Yun Xiao (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This article uses China's family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han Chinese, were subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy rollout and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.65 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions.
    Keywords: Fertility, Family planning, China, Spillovers, Peer Effects, Partial population experiment
    JEL: C36 D1 J11 J13 O15 O53
    Date: 2020–06–20
  32. By: Kirksey, J. Jacob (University of California, Santa Barbara)
    Abstract: Recent research has shown the ways in which immigration enforcement actions can affect educational outcomes for all students, regardless of their immigrant status. One consequence of particular concern is student absenteeism, a non-academic indicator used by 37 states to evaluate school success under the Every Student Succeeds Act. However, previous research has faced data limitations on the measure of immigration enforcement and relies on aggregated measures of educational outcomes. Using weekly attendance rates of a school district as well as unique data collection on immigration arrests between 2014-18, this study used single and comparative interrupted time series analyses to quantify the immediate and sustained impacts of immigration arrests on student attendance. Findings suggest that incidents involving a greater number of immigration arrests correspond to immediate spikes in student absenteeism, as high as 11% points for certain student demographics. Additionally, the district’s attendance rate sustained a cumulative 2%-point decline following two incidents involving the greatest number of arrests. Implications for policymakers and educators are discussed.
    Date: 2020–06–12
  33. By: Gavazza, Alessandro; Nardotto, Mattia; Valletti, Tommaso
    Abstract: We empirically study the effects of broadband internet diffusion on local election outcomes and on local government policies using rich data from the U.K. Our analysis shows that the internet has displaced other media with greater news content (i.e. radio and newspapers), thereby decreasing voter turnout, most notably among less-educated and younger individuals. In turn, we find suggestive evidence that local government expenditures and taxes are lower in areas with greater broadband diffusion, particularly expenditures targeted at less-educated voters. Our findings are consistent with the idea that voters’ information plays a key role in determining electoral participation, government policies, and government size.
    Keywords: local elections; voter turnout; local government expenditure; media; internet
    JEL: D72 H72 H75 L82 L86 N44
    Date: 2019–10–01
  34. By: Ferdinando Monte
    Abstract: This short note constructs Mobility Zones to facilitate the discussion on the geographic extent of individual mobility restrictions to control the spread of Covid-19. Mobility Zones are disjoint sets of counties where a given level of individual mobility directly or indirectly connects all counties within each set. I compute Mobility Zones for the United States and each state using smartphone-based mobility data between counties. The average area and population of Mobility Zones have slightly grown at the onset of the epidemic and have sharply shrunk afterward. Pre-Covid-19 Mobility Zones may be useful in calibrating quantitative studies of targeted restriction policies, or for policymakers deciding on the adoption of specific mobility measures. Two examples suggest the use of Mobility Zones to inform within-state differences and cross-state coordination in mobility restriction policies.
    JEL: I1 R1
    Date: 2020–05
  35. By: Nathan Delacrétaz; Bruno Lanz; Jeremy van Dijk
    Abstract: We document non-linear stock effects in the relationship linking emerging technology adoption and network infrastructure increments. We exploit 2010-2017 data covering nascent to mature electric vehicle (EV) markets across 422 Norwegian municipalities together with two complementary identification strategies: control function regressions of EV sales on flexible polynomials in the stock of charging stations and charging points, and synthetic control methods to quantify the impact of initial infrastructure provision in municipalities that previously had none. Our results are consistent with indirect network effects and the behavioral bias called "range anxiety", and support policies targeting early infrastructure provision to incentivize EV adoption.
    Keywords: Technology adoption; network externality; electric vehicles; charging infrastructure; two-sided markets; behavioral bias; range anxiety; environmental policy.
    JEL: L14 D62 L91 O33 Q48 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2020–08
  36. By: Janke, Katharina; Lee, Kevin; Propper, Carol; Shields, Kalvinder K; Shields, Michael
    Abstract: We estimate a model that allows for dynamic and interdependent responses of morbidity in different local areas to economic conditions at the local and national level, with statistical selection of optimal local area. We apply this approach to quarterly British data on chronic health conditions for those of working age over the period 2002-2016. We find strong and robust counter-cyclical relationships for overall chronic health, and for five broad types of health conditions. Chronic health conditions therefore increase in poor economic times. There is considerable spatial heterogeneity across local areas, with the counter-cyclical relationship being strongest in poorer local areas with more traditional industrial structures. We find that feedback effects are quantitatively important across local areas, and dynamic effects that differ by health condition. Consequently, the standard panel data model commonly used in the literature considerably under-estimates the extent of the counter-cyclical relationship in our context.
    Keywords: aggregation; dynamics; health; Heterogeneity; macroeconomic conditions; Morbidity
    JEL: C33 E32 J10 J21
    Date: 2020–03
  37. By: Falk, Armin (briq, University of Bonn); Kosse, Fabian (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Pinger, Pia (University of Cologne)
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity strikes when two children with the same academic performance are sent to different quality schools because their parents differ in socio-economic status. Based on a novel dataset for Germany, we demonstrate that children are significantly less likely to enter the academic track if they come from low socio-economic status (SES) families, even after conditioning on prior measures of school performance. We then provide causal evidence that a low-intensity mentoring program can improve long-run education outcomes of low SES children and reduce inequality of opportunity. Low SES children, who were randomly assigned to a mentor for one year are 20 percent more likely to enter a high track program. The mentoring relationship affects both parents and children and has positive long-term implications for children's educational trajectories.
    Keywords: mentoring, childhood intervention programs, education, human capital investments, inequality of opportunity, socio-economic status
    JEL: C90 I24 J24 J62
    Date: 2020–06
  38. By: Steffen Andersen; Julie Marx; Kasper Meisner Nielsen; Lise Vesterlund
    Abstract: We investigate negotiations over real estate and find that men secure better prices than women when negotiating to buy and sell property. However, the gender difference declines substantially when improving controls for the property’s value; and is eliminated when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in a sample of repeated sales. Rather than evidence of gender differences in negotiation, the initial difference in prices is evidence that men and women demand different properties. Consistently we find no gender difference in the sales price secured for property inherited from a deceased parent. Provided appropriate controls men and women fare equally well when negotiating over real estate. Our study demonstrates that inference on gender differences in negotiation relies critically on controlling for the value of the negotiated item.
    JEL: J16 R30
    Date: 2020–06
  39. By: Zhang, Meng Le; Cheung, Sin Yi; Phillimore, Jenny
    Abstract: In the UK asylum seekers are eligible for state provided accommodation whilst awaiting asylum decision. A key feature of Home Office policy is the eviction of refugees from any state provided accommodation within 28 days after being given permission to stay in the UK. Following a permission to stay new refugees face a number of difficulties including: lack of employment; prolonged processing time for national insurance numbers (essential for receiving benefits and gaining employment); and ineligibility for social housing. Due to these factors and more, new refugees are particularly at risk of being homeless. This paper uses data from the Survey of New Refugees (SNR) to estimate the causal effects of an alternative policy for housing new refugees which allows any homeless refugee to access social housing regardless of priority needs status. Our research design exploits (i) a singular policy divergence between Scotland and England caused by devolution; (ii) the random nature of the Home Office’s ‘no-choice’ asylum seeker dispersal policy; and (iii) the (obvious) relationship between homelessness and the ability to respond to postal surveys.
    Date: 2020–05–20
  40. By: Orlando, Michael; Verba, Michael (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Weiler, Stefan
    Date: 2019
  41. By: , Stone Center (The Graduate Center/CUNY); Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel (The City College of New York); Vélez-Grajales, Roberto
    Abstract: Recent analyses at the national scale have concluded that there is a strong relationship between skin tones and social mobility in Mexico, where darker skin tones are associated with lower rates of relative upward intergenerational mobility compared to the rest of the population. Our paper shows that these estimates, by failing to take into account the effect of regional differences in the distribution of skin tones, tend to overestimate the gap between light and dark skin tones in Mexico. In other words, they overestimate the intergenerational rate of rank persistence for the dark skin population by omitting the effect of differences in regional economic performance. We correct for this factor by analyzing a new data set with information representative at the regional level. Our results suggest that the mobility gap between light and dark skin tone individuals persists after including the regional dimension in the analysis. Throughout the country, light skin individuals have an advantage at moving upwards the socioeconomic scale and remaining at the top compared with the rest of the population. However, the magnitude of the gap varies across regions, being smallest in Mexico City and largest in the North West and South regions of the country. We also find that, regardless of skin tone, individuals with origins in the South face a disadvantage with respect to their peers from the rest of the country. (Stone Center Working Paper Series)
    Date: 2020–05–14
  42. By: KONDO Keisuke
    Abstract: This study evaluates the disutility of long-distance commuting by structurally estimating a random utility model of commuting choice. Using estimated structural parameters for commuting preferences and considering the factors that produce heterogeneity across workers, the study quantifies the extent to which workers incur disutility from commuting under a counterfactual scenario in which they commute the same distance before and after marriage. Using inter-municipal commuting flow data in Japan, the counterfactual simulations uncover a significant gender gap in the disutility of commuting, particularly because having children after marriage greatly increases the disutility of commuting for female but not for male workers. Residential relocation plays a role in mitigating the disutility of commuting for female workers, implying that the additional disutility that arises after marriage can be offset through endogenous residential location choice.
    Date: 2020–04
  43. By: Derrick Choe; Alexander Oettl; Robert Seamans
    Abstract: In this chapter we draw from existing literature and a range of statistics to describe economic, entrepreneurial and innovative activities in the transportation and warehousing sector of the U.S. economy. We suggest multiple avenues for future work, and argue for more research on the role of warehousing in particular. Recent trends suggest that the warehousing and storage subsector is experiencing rapid economic and technological changes, likely reflecting shifts in how consumers purchase goods. We also review several other recent innovations, including ride-sharing and autonomous vehicles, that are starting to affect this sector of the economy.
    JEL: L26 L90 O18 O30 R40
    Date: 2020–05
  44. By: Philip Babcock (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara); Kelly Bedard (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara); Stefanie Fischer (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University); John Hartman (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara)
    Abstract: This paper investigates peer effects at the level of individual connections, leveraging the approach to shed light on peer mechanisms. In a field experiment using college freshmen, we elicited best friends and offered monetary incentives for gym visits to a treated subset. We find large spillovers from treated subjects to treated best friends but none from treated subjects to control best friends. We also find evidence of a mechanism: Subjects coordinate by visiting the gym with best friends, indicating that the intervention harnesses complementarities in utility or commitment mechanisms. Results highlight subtle peer effects and mechanisms that often go undetected.
    Date: 2019
  45. By: Alrababa'h, Ala'; Williamson, Scott; Dillon, Andrea Balacar; Hangartner, Dominik; Hainmueller, Jens
    Abstract: With a record number of migrants moving across the globe, a burgeoning literature has explored the drivers of attitudes toward migrants. However, most major studies to date have focused on developed countries, which have relatively few migrants and substantial capacity to absorb them. We address this sample bias by conducting a large-scale representative survey of public attitudes toward Syrians in Jordan, a developing country with one of the largest shares of refugees. Our analysis indicates that neither personal nor community-level exposure to the economic impact of the refugee crisis is associated with anti-migrant sentiments among natives. Further, an embedded conjoint experiment demonstrates the relative importance of humanitarian and cultural concerns over economic ones. Taken together, our evidence weakens the case for egocentric and sociotropic economic concerns as critical drivers of anti-migrant attitudes, and demonstrates how humanitarian motives can sustain support for refugees when host and migrant cultures are similar.
    Keywords: refugees; migration; Middle East
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–05–21
  46. By: Psacharopoulos, George; Collis, Victoria; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Vegas, Emiliana
    Abstract: Social distancing requirements associated with COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to school closures. In mid-April, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization reported that 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting more than 90 percent of the world’s learners: 1.5 billion children and young people. The closures are expected to reduce learning and will lead to future losses in earnings and labor productivity. Schooling attainment leads to increased earnings. What is not known is how much earnings will decline due to the school closures. Starting with the fact that every year of schooling equates to 8-9 percent in additional future earnings, this paper uses the number of months of education closures to estimate the loss in marginal future earnings. The findings show that the school closures reduce future earnings, and this loss is equivalent to 15 percent of future gross domestic product. The school closures will have a large and long-lasting impact on the earnings of future workers. It is also likely that students from low-income countries will be affected most. These estimates are conservative, assuming that the closures will end after four months and school quality will not suffer.
    Keywords: education,earnings,Covid-19
    JEL: I26 I20 J24
    Date: 2020
  47. By: Orazio Attanasio; Sonya Krutikova
    Abstract: This paper uses a dataset from Tanzania that contains information on consumption, income and income shocks within and across family networks. A unique feature of this data is that it contains data on the degree of information existing between each pair of households within family networks. We use these data to construct a novel measure of the quality of information both at the level of household pairs and at the level of the network. We study risk sharing within these networks and explore whether the rejection of perfect risk sharing that we observe can be related to imperfections in the information network members have about each. We show that households within family networks with better information are less vulnerable to idiosyncratic shocks. Next, using the same information, we characterise the position of households within the family net- works constructing measures of network centrality. We show that more central households within networks are less vulnerable to idiosyncratic shocks.
    JEL: O10 O15
    Date: 2020–05
  48. By: Daniel Borebly (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Housing subsidies are aimed at helping low-income individuals afford appropriate housing, but are costly to offer and, in the view of some experts and policy makers, reduce incentives for claimants to participate in the labour market. This paper investigates the labour market impacts of recent housing subsidy cuts in England that were aimed at encouraging labour market participation and increased work effort among claimants. My identification strategy relies on the fact that, within the time period investigated, the subsidy cuts were only implemented for claimants renting from private landlords while claimants renting from other segments of the rental market were unaffected. I utilise this variation in exposure to the subsidy cuts within a difference-in-differences framework and find no evidence of a change in labour market outcomes for those affected by subsidy cuts. My findings indicate that, at least on aggregate, the subsidy cuts did not succeed in encouraging employment among claimants. These null findings suggest that as a policy instrument, cuts to housing subsidies may not be effective in generating efficiency gains through increased labour market participation or work effort.
    Keywords: housing subsidies, welfare programs, labour market behaviour
    JEL: H31 H42 H53
    Date: 2020–04
  49. By: Eisner, Manuel; Ribeaud, Denis; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zölitz, Ulf
    Abstract: We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enroll in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer ADHD symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher grades, but they do not score higher on standardized tests. The long-term effects on educational attainment thus appear to be driven by changes in socio-emotional skills rather than cognitive skills.
    Keywords: child development; randomized intervention; School tracking; Socio-Emotional Skills
    JEL: C93 I21 I24 I26 J24
    Date: 2020–03
  50. By: Aidt, T.; Winer, S.; Zhang, P.
    Abstract: We study the effect of franchise extension on the fiscal structure of central and local governments in the United Kingdom between 1820 and 1913 to revisit the Redistribution Hypothesis - the prediction that franchise extension causes an increase in state-sponsored redistribution. We adopt a novel method of uncovering causality from non-experimental data proposed by Hoover (2001). This method is based on tests for structural breaks in the marginal and conditional distributions of the franchise and fiscal structure time series preceded by a detailed historical narrative analysis. We do not find any compelling evidence that supports the Redistribution Hypothesis.
    Keywords: Franchise extension, redistribution, democratization, causality, structural breaks, local government, central government, historical narrative
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2020–02–09
  51. By: Gomes, Francisco J; Haliassos, Michael; Ramadorai, Tarun
    Abstract: Household financial decisions are complex, interdependent, and heterogeneous, and central to the functioning of the financial system. We present an overview of the rapidly expanding literature on household finance (with some important exceptions) and suggest directions for future research. We begin with the theory and empirics of asset market participation and asset allocation over the lifecycle. We then discuss household choices in insurance markets, trading behavior, decisions on retirement saving, and financial choices by retirees. We survey research on liabilities, including mortgage choice, refinancing, and default, and household behavior in unsecured credit markets, including credit cards and payday lending. We then connect the household to its social environment, including peer effects, cultural and hereditary factors, intra-household financial decision making, financial literacy, cognition and educational interventions. We also discuss literature on the provision and consumption of financial advice.
    Keywords: household finance
    Date: 2020–03
  52. By: Sascha O. Becker; Francesco Cinnirella
    Abstract: We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy.
    Keywords: religion, segregation, literacy, fertility, Prussia
    JEL: J13 J15 I21 N33 Z12
    Date: 2020
  53. By: Emma Hooper (Direction Générale du Trésor); Sanjay Peters (Columbia University [New York]); Patrick Pintus (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: An in-depth econometric analysis of US state-level data on an annual frequency, from 1976 to 2008, sheds new light on a plausible causal link between infrastructure investments, namely public spending on highways, and income inequality. This causal relationship is drawn out by using the number of seats in the US House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations (HRCA) as an instrument to identify quasi-random variations in state-level spending on highways. An exogenous pattern which emerges when a state gains an additional member to the HRCA is that it is allocated with new federal grants. This increase in federal transfers for infrastructure financing results in slashing of expenditures on highways and a crowding-out effect of federal funding for state investments on highways. Spending cuts on highways produced by a new HRCA member being attained by a state can unwittingly cause income inequality to rise over a short two-year time horizon. Similar challenges with decentralized development to finance infrastructure via federal transfers to state and sub-national governments may be encountered by other industrially advanced, emerging and low-income developing economies. US data over the mentioned period reveal a strong positive correlation with state spending on highways and wages paid for construction jobs. Suggestive evidence indicates that the construction sector also plays an important role in the transmission channel from a rise in state spending on highways to lowering income inequality, albeit during specific intervals, as opposed to on a long-term basis.
    Keywords: Public Infrastructure,Highways,Income Inequality,US State Panel Data,Instrument Variable
    Date: 2020–05–31
  54. By: Ann Mitchell, Jimena Maccio
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the NGO TECHO's emergency housing programme on multidimensional poverty. It employs a quasi-experimental 'pipeline' evaluation design and is based on household survey data from 34 informal settlements in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The aim is to demonstrate the additional insights that can be gained from using a multidimensional framework based on the Alkire and Foster (2011) method to evaluate a programme's impact. The results indicate that the programme reduces both the incidence and the intensity of poverty and causes the multidimensional poverty measure to fall by more than half. The magnitude of the effect is greater for the households that initially were the poorest. Privacy, interpersonal relations and psychological health are the dimensions that contribute the most to explaining the decline in multidimensional deprivation.
    Date: 2018–09
  55. By: Abate, Gashaw T.; Dereje, Mekdim; Hirvonen, Kalle; Minten, Bart
    Abstract: Geography has been shown to be an important determinant of economic development. Remote areas tend to be poorer due to higher transaction costs for trade or inhospitable environments. In this study, we show that remote areas in rural Ethiopia are also disadvantaged in their access to public service delivery. Relying on large household surveys, we assessed the association between exposure to agriculture and health extension and two measures of remoteness: (1) the distance of service centers to district capitals; and (2) the distance of households to service centers (i.e., the last mile). We found that villages located farther away from district capitals were less likely to receive agricultural extension services than other villages. In contrast, exposure to health extension services did not vary across more and less connected villages. This difference between the two sectors could be due to the fact that more remote villages tend to have fewer agriculture extension workers who also put in fewer hours into their work than their peers. We did not find similar evidence in the health sector. Finally, for both sectors, we found that the last mile matters: more remote households within villages were less likely to receive both types of extension services.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; health; public services; geography; rural areas; trade barriers; health services; agricultural extension; remote areas; public service delivery
    Date: 2019
  56. By: Martin, Julien; Mayneris, Florian; Theophile, Ewane
    Abstract: This paper uses the microdata underlying the Ethiopian CPI to examine the spatial dispersion in local prices and availability of 400 items across more than 100 cities. We first show that remote cities face higher prices for individual products and have access to fewer products. All else equal, large cities also face higher individual prices but enjoy access to a wider set of products. To assess the welfare implications of these micro patterns, we then examine the impact of remoteness and population size on aggregate cost-of-living indexes that account for product availability. We find the cost of living is higher in remote areas, but not systematically related to population size. We then show spatial differences in the cost of living are a significant determinant of migration flows across Ethiopian regions. The impact of cost of living mainly channels through spatial differences in product availability.
    Date: 2020–03
  57. By: Mohana Mondal (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Auckland, New Zealand, is among the most ethnically diverse cities in the world. Like most large cities, its population is also quite youthful. In this paper, we focus on the dynamics of self-declared ethnic identities of adolescents in Auckland, by using New Zealand Linked Census data for four inter-censal periods between 1991 and 2013. Our dataset links the same young person across two consecutive Censuses (that is, those aged 13-17 in one Census are aged 18-22 in the following Census five years later). We aim to capture the first conscious ethnic identity affiliation of adolescents, assuming that their ethnic identities are initially recorded by their parents, but subsequently determined by the adolescent themselves when they transition to adulthood. We classify our predictor variables into individual, family and neighbourhood-level variables. We find that an adolescent’s ethnicity stated at the previous census, parents’ ethnicity, and the ethnic makeup of the neighbourhood are all major determinants of ethnic-identity choices among adolescents in Auckland.
    Keywords: ethnic identity; ethnic transition; adolescents; New Zealand
    JEL: J15 R23 Z13
    Date: 2020–05–31
  58. By: Ransom, Tyler (University of Oklahoma)
    Abstract: I examine the extent to which the returns to college majors are influenced by selective migration and occupational choice across locations in the US. To quantify the role of selection, I develop and estimate an extended Roy model of migration, occupational choice, and earnings where, upon completing their education, individuals choose a location in which to live and an occupation in which to work. In order to estimate this high-dimensional choice model, I make use of machine learning methods that allow for model selection and estimation simultaneously in a non-parametric setting. I find that OLS estimates of the returns to business and STEM majors relative to education majors are biased upward by 15% on average. Using estimates of the model, I characterize the migration behavior of different college majors and find that migration flows are twice as sensitive to occupational concentration as they are towage returns.
    Keywords: college major, migration, occupation, Roy model
    JEL: I2 J3 R1
    Date: 2020–06
  59. By: Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: We analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We consider a wide range of correlates - population density, public transportation, age structure, nursing home residents, connectedness to source countries, among others - in an effort to pinpoint factors explaining differential severity of the disease at the county level. The patterns we identify are meant to improve our understanding of the drivers of the spread of COVID-19, with an eye toward helping policymakers design responses that are sensitive to the specificities of different locations.
    JEL: I18 R1
    Date: 2020–06
  60. By: Lena Nerhagen (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute); Sara Forsstedt
    Abstract: This paper describes the use of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for transport planning in Sweden and discusses the arguments for and against its use. The paper considers four main aspects: First, the Swedish planning context and existing requirements regarding the use of RIA. Second, the current focus of research regarding CBA for infrastructure investments in the Swedish transport sector and the need for greater focus on issues concerning regulation. Third, the difficulty to quantify and place monetary values on effects. Fourthly, the paper discusses the need to align incentives at all levels and across agencies.
    Date: 2019–11–13
  61. By: DeAngelo, Gregory; Toger, Marina; Weisburd, Sarit
    Abstract: The delayed response of law enforcement to calls for service has become a hot button issue when evaluating police department performance. While it is often assumed that faster response times could play an important role in quelling potentially violent incidents, to date there is no empirical evidence to support this claim. In this paper, we measure the effect of police response time on the likelihood that an incident results in an injury. To overcome the endogeneity between more severe calls being issued a higher priority, which requires a faster response, we take several steps. First, we focus on a subset of calls for service categorized as "Major Disturbance - Violence" that all receive the same priority level. Second, we instrument for police response time with the number of vehicles within a 2.5 mile radius of the call at the time it is received at the call center. When controlling for beat fixed effects, this instrumenting strategy allows us to take advantage of the geographical constraints faced by a dispatcher when assigning officers to an incident. In contrast to the OLS estimates, our two-stage least squares analysis establishes a strong, positive causal relationship between response time and the likelihood that an incident results in an injury. The effect is concentrated among female callers, suggesting that faster response time could potentially play an important role in reducing injuries related to domestic violence.
    Keywords: Injuries; Policing; Rapid Response; Safety
    Date: 2020–03
  62. By: Gilles Duranton; Diego Puga
    Abstract: Urban density boosts productivity and innovation, improves access to goods and services, reduces typical travel distances, encourages energy-efficient construction and transport, and facilitates sharing scarce amenities. However, density is also synonymous with crowding, makes living and moving in cities more costly, and concentrates exposure to pollution and disease. We explore the appropriate measurement of density and describe how it is both a cause and a consequence of the evolution of cities. We then discuss whether and how policy should target density and why the trade-off between its pros and cons is unhappily resolved by market and political forces.
    JEL: R12 R31 R32
    Date: 2020–05
  63. By: Hari Sharma (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: In the last two decades, Nepal experienced a significant rise in work-related migration and subsequent remittance inflows. We examine the impacts on child education and child labour in a two-wave panel constructed from the 2008 Nepal Labour Force Survey and the 2010 Nepal Living Standards Survey. We use grade-specific net enrolment rates rather than the more commonly studied attendance rate, and exploit variation in destination-driven predicted migration as an instrumental variable. Migration and remittances appear to raise net enrolment of children in secondary education. The positive effect on school outcomes is complemented by a fall in child labour force participation. The effects appear larger for children aged ten and above, and seem to predominantly operate through remittances.
    Keywords: human capital; child labour; migration; school enrolment; Nepal
    JEL: E20 J22 F22 I21 O15
    Date: 2020–06–19
  64. By: Esteban Aucejo (Department of Economics, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University and CEP); Jonathan James (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the formation of math and verbal skills during compulsory education and their impact on adult outcomes. We introduce a novel method to estimate dynamic, nested CES production functions. Using a rich panel database that follows a cohort of students in England from elementary school to university, we find that the production functions of math and verbal skills are inherently different, where cross-effects are only present in the production of math skills. Results on long-term outcomes indicate that verbal skills play a substantially greater role in explaining university enrollment than math skills. This finding, combined with the large female advantage in verbal skills, has key implications for gender gaps in college enrollment and field of study. Finally, we show that students stuck in low quality schools have lower skill levels at the end of compulsory education compared to students attending high quality schools, with these skill deficits leading to a 30 percentage point gap in college enrollment among these students. Simulation results show that about 15% of this gap is due to di erences in skill levels at the beginning of compulsory education while about 20% of this gap is attributable to the differences in school quality, which indicates that policies aiming to improve school quality could help to overcome initial skill disadvantages.
    Date: 2019
  65. By: Arthur Guillouzouic--Le Corff (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: Cette thèse étudie la manière dont l’hétérogénéité dans la production de biens publics locaux peut influencer la géographie de l’activité économique, en s’appuyant sur l’étude de deux mécanismes générant une telle hétérogénéité. Dans les deux premiers chapitres, le bien public local étudié est la connaissance technologique. Cette approche trouve sa source dans une vaste littérature montrant que les flux de connaissance sont sujets à un important biais spatial. Le premier chapitre étudie les dynamiques de formation des liens entre innovateurs, et leurs conséquences sur l’effet agrégé de la distance sur les flux de connaissance. L’analyse montre que les innovateurs trouvent des nouvelles sources de connaissance graduellement, via les contacts de leurs propres contacts. En introduisant cet élément dans un modèle de formation de réseau, on obtient des prédictions sur la taille des innovateurs et sur la relation entre taille et distance des citations qui sont vérifiées dans les données. Le second chapitre prend ces réseaux locaux d’innovateurs comme fixés, et examine leur influence sur les décisions de relocalisations d’établissements de R&D par les firmes. Je montre que les firmes innovantes sont plus mobiles que la moyenne, et que des réseaux d’innovation plus denses attirent les firmes tandis qu’une mauvaise position dans le réseau rend les firmes plus susceptibles de se relocaliser. J’étudie ensuite théoriquement le problème d’une firme pouvant relocaliser ses laboratoires mais possédant des informations limitées sur les autres localisations. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à un problème différent dans lequel le bien public local est produit par le service public de manière spatialement hétérogène, à cause de salaires fixés de manière centralisée. Il montre que les fonctionnaires génèrent des externalités positives sur le secteur privé, ce qui implique que des niveaux hétérogènes de biens publics locaux déforment la géographie de l’activité privée.
    Keywords: Local public goods, Innovation networks, Urban economics, Knowledge diffusion; Biens publics locaux, Réseaux d’innovateurs, Economie urbaine, Diffusion de connaissance
    Date: 2019–07

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