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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the effect of house prices on fertility is analysed across South African provinces using spatial Durbin model. This approach assumes spatial linkages through both endogenous and exogenous variables while allowing the total housing effect on fertility to be decomposed into direct and indirect effects. Empirical results using provincial annual data from 1998 to 2015 indicate that housing market plays an important role in the fertility decision besides female job participation and labour market condition. Particularly, an increase in regional house prices results in a decrease in local and subsequently national fertility rate. However, the spillover effect to adjacent provinces appears to be positive and significant, except in the small housing segment; suggesting that an increase in regional house prices will spur fertility in other regions. Intuitively, house price inflation in a province makes housing relatively affordable in adjacent regions; housing affordability being an important driver of fertility. Alternatively, this positive effect might also capture the income effect felt by homeowners following a rise in house prices, which might in turn be favourable to fertility due to financial edge. The insignificant indirect effect from the small housing segment might reflect the fact that small houses are less likely to be the family residential choice. These findings confirm the importance of spatiotemporal economic behavior in shaping regional fertility in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | House prices, fertility, spatial panel |
| JEL: | C23 J13 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100546&r=all |
| By: | Camille Blaudin de Thé (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Benjamin Carantino (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Miren Lafourcade (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of urban form on household fuel consumption and car emissions in France. We in particular analyze three features of cities commonly referred to as the "3 D's" (Cervero & Kockelman 1997): Density, Design and Diversity. Individual data allow us to identify the effects of urban form and the spatial sorting of households on emissions. We also use instrumental variables to control for other endogeneity issues. Our results suggest that, by choosing to live at the fringe of a metropolitan area instead of the city center, a representative household would consume approximately six extra tanks of fuel per year. More generally, doubling residential Density would result in an annual saving of approximately two tanks per household. However, larger gains would result from better urban Design (job-housing central-ization, improved rail/bus routes to central business districts, reduced pressure for road construction and a less fragmented built environment in urban areas) while improved Diversity (the concentration of various local amenities such as shops and public facilities) can also help lower fuel consumption. Another important finding is that the relationship between the metropolitan population and car emissions in France is bell-shaped, contrary to that in the US, suggesting that small cities do compensate for their lack of Density/Diversity by environmentally-friendly Design. |
| Keywords: | Sprawl,car emissions,CO 2 footprint,driving,public transport,smart cities |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02572893&r=all |
| By: | Shreyas Gadgin Matha; Patricio Goldstein (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Jessie Lu |
| Abstract: | Considering the case of the proposed airport in Vlora, South Albania, this report analyzes the channels through which a new greenfield airport can contribute to regional economic development. In December 2019, the Government of Albania opened a call for offers to build a new airport in the south of the country. While there is evidence indicating that the airport could be commercially viable, this does not provide a grounded perspective on the channels by which the airport could boost the regional economy. To evaluate how the new airport would interact with existing and potential economic activities, this report evaluates three of the most important channels of impact by which the airport could serve as a promoter: (1) economic activities directly related to or promoted by airports, (2) the airport’s potential contribution to the region’s booming tourism sector and (3) the potential for the country’s development of air freight as a tool for export promotion. In each of these three cases, the report identifies complementary public goods or policies that could maximize the airport’s impact in the region. The operation of the airport itself could stimulate a series of economic activities directly related to air traffic services. Airports have the ability to mold the economic structure of the places immediately around them, acting both as a consumer and as a supplier of air transport services. Not only activities related to transportation and logistics thrive around airports, but also a variety of manufacturing, trade and construction industries. Nevertheless, the agglomeration benefits of a successful aerotropolis are not guaranteed by the construction of an airport. For South Albania’s new airport to actualize its potential returns, integrated planning of the airport site will be required, with focus on real estate planification and provision of complementary infrastructure. Establishing an airport in Vlora has the potential to spur regional development in South Albania through facilitating the growth of the tourism sector and its related activities. Albania’s tourism industry has seen strong growth in the last two decades, but still lags behind its potential. Albania only has a strong penetration in the tourism market of its neighboring markets, and the high seasonality of the tourism season further limits the sector’s growth. The establishment of an airport in South Albania would ease some of the tourism industry constraints tied to transportation into the country and region. Given the high reliance of the tourism industry on its many complementary inputs, more than one area of concern may have to be addressed for the impact of the new airport to be maximized. Facilitating transportation access around the South Albania region and specifically to tourist sites; preparing natural and cultural heritage sites for tourism use and expanding tourism infrastructure to accommodate potential growth are some of the interventions analyzed. Airfreight infrastructure could in theory provide opportunities to improve the competitiveness of Albanian exports but developing a successful air cargo cluster is no simple task. An airport can facilitate an alternative mode of transport for specific types of goods and hence promote a country’s exports. In Albania’s case, not only existing textile and agriculture products could be competitively exported through air freight, but also air freight itself could improve Albania’s position to diversify into “nearby” industries, identified by the theory of Economic Complexity. Nevertheless, an effective air freight strategy does not and cannot uniquely depend on the simple availability of a nearby airport. Air cargo operations require both traffic volume that Albania may not be able to provide, as well as complementary cargo-specific infrastructure. Although the potential for air freight in South Albania could be high, it is by no means a safe bet nor does it imply with certainty significant impact in the immediate future. |
| Keywords: | Economic Complexity, Tourism, Structural Transformation |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:127a&r=all |
| By: | Alfaro, Laura; Faia, Ester; Lamersdorf, Nora; Saidi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | In SIR models, homogeneous or with a network structure, infection rates are assumed to be exogenous. However, individuals adjust their behavior. Using daily data for 89 cities worldwide, we document that mobility falls in response to fear, as approximated by Google search terms. Combining these data with experimentally validated measures of social preferences at the regional level, we find that stringency measures matter less if individuals are more patient and altruistic (preference traits), and exhibit less negative reciprocity (community traits). We modify the homogeneous SIR and the SIR-network model to include agents' optimizing decisions on social interactions. Susceptible individuals internalize infection risk based on their patience, infected ones do so based on their altruism, and reciprocity matters for internalizing risk in SIR networks. A planner further restricts interactions due to a static and a dynamic inefficiency in the homogeneous SIR model, and due to an additional reciprocity inefficiency in the SIR-network model. We show that partial or targeted lockdown policies are efficient only when it is possible to identify infected individuals. |
| Keywords: | cities; mobility; Pandemics; SIR-Network; Social interactions; Social planner; social preferences; targeted policies |
| JEL: | D62 D64 D85 D91 I10 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14716&r=all |
| By: | Jedd Ugay (Alt Mobility PH and MoveAsOne Coalition); Monica Lavares (Ateneo School of Government); Jerik Cruz (Ateneo de Manila University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Marjorie Muyrong (Ateneo de Manila University and La Trobe University) |
| Abstract: | Most Filipinos in the labor force are commuters. In the ‘old normal’, most of these daily travelers have gotten used to traveling to school or work using various modes of public transport. But the woes of the Philippines’ commuting public have been a long-standing issue even prior to COVID-19. The pandemic therefore presents a ‘golden opportunity’ for an overhaul of the public transport system. An efficient urban transportation system would not only result in significant positive spillovers to the general public and to the entire economy, but would also allow for coordinated response to the social distancing and the safety requires of COVID-19 for the commuting public. Accordingly, there is an urgent need for (a) a rationalization of Public Utility Vehicle (PUV) routes; (b) a shift to service contract arrangements between the government and PUV operators; (c) a reprioritization of inclusive mobility infrastructure investments from mega-rail, mega-bridge, mega-airport, and tourism-related infrastructure projects; and (d) alternative revenue-raising measures that also reduce air pollution and discourage private car use. |
| Keywords: | mass transit, urban transportation systems, public services, public finance, taxation |
| JEL: | R4 H41 H30 H2 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agy:dpaper:202008&r=all |
| By: | Anthony Lepinteur (University of Luxembourg); Sofie R. Waltl (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business & LISER) |
| Abstract: | Economic theory predicts that expectations on future house price growth are related to the current price of a house. We test this relationship for the supply side of the secondary housing market using micro data that links individual expectations to a subjective owner estimated value (OEV). We find a strong causal relationship that optimistic expectations indeed imply higher OEVs as compared to neutral or pessimistic expectations. We find qualitatively and quantitatively consistent results for Italy and the US as well as for booming and gloomy years. Our results survive ample robustness checks. Since we use subjective data on house prices, we first show that OEVs are indeed a valid source to study house price dynamics by performing three types of convergent validity tests. We find that price dynamics derived by either combining OEVs and dwelling characteristics, or making use of repeatedly provided OEVs by the same owner over time reproduce objectively measured market trends strikingly well – even over decades. In contrast, OEVs and objective data tend to differ in levels – potentially due to psychological bias. These results hold for a large set of countries. We hence conclude that the “wisdom of the home-owner crowd” is sufficient to study house price dynamics but OEVs are less suited for measuring the level of market prices. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets, Expectations, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Subjective Data, Convergent Validity |
| JEL: | C43 D9 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp299&r=all |
| By: | Ferraro, Simona; Agasisti, Tommaso; Porcelli, Francesco; Soncin, Mara |
| Abstract: | In Italy, the provision of educational ancillary services (like meals and school transportation) is in charge of the municipalities. We investigate whether municipalities differ in their efficiency when providing these services and whether such heterogeneity explains some portion of the variability observed in pupils’ test scores. The paper is the first application of a nonparametric order-m model and a two-stage multilevel regression to a unique administrative dataset, made of the entire population of Italian pupils tested in reading and mathematics at grade 5 (academic years 2012/2013 and 2014/2015). Results demonstrate that local governments have different efficiency levels in providing services to schools. The test scores’ variability among pupils, however, is not explained by different efficiency levels of local government in producing ancillary services. |
| Keywords: | ancillary services, order-m, multilevel modelling, efficiency |
| JEL: | H52 I21 |
| Date: | 2020–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100260&r=all |
| By: | Lepinteur, Anthony; Waltl, Sofie R. |
| Abstract: | Economic theory predicts that expectations on future house price growth are related to the current price of a house. We test this relationship for the supply side of the secondary housing market using micro data that links individual expectations to a subjective owner estimated value (OEV). We find a strong causal relationship that optimistic expectations indeed imply higher OEVs as compared to neutral or pessimistic expectations. We find qualitatively and quantitatively consistent results for Italy and the US as well as for booming and gloomy years. Our results survive ample robustness checks. Since we use subjective data on house prices, we first show that OEVs are indeed a valid source to study house price dynamics by performing three types of convergent validity tests. We find that price dynamics derived by either combining OEVs and dwelling characteristics, or making use of repeatedly provided OEVs by the same owner over time reproduce objectively measured market trends strikingly well – even over decades. In contrast, OEVs and objective data tend to differ in levels – potentially due to psychological bias. These results hold for a large set of countries. We hence conclude that the "wisdom of the home-owner crowd" is sufficient to study house price dynamics but OEVs are less suited for measuring the level of market prices. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets, Expectations, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Subjective Data, Convergent Validity |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:7621&r=all |
| By: | Pierre M. Picard (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Thi Thu Huyen Tran (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the size and location of urban green areas across city spaces. Urban green areas offer amenities that affect residential choices, land consumption and land rent. This paper discusses the socially optimal sizes and locations of urban green areas within a city and their decentralized allocation through land markets. The main result is that the share of land dedicated to urban green areas is a concave function of the distance to the city center. This result is confirmed by the empirical study of urban structures in the 305 largest EU cities. The importance of urban green areas is finally assessed by a counterfactual analysis, where 50% of urban green areas are removed in each city. |
| Keywords: | Urban green areas, urban spatial structure, land use policy, amenities, optimal locations, public facilities, structural estimation. |
| JEL: | C61 D61 D62 R14 R53 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-03&r=all |
| By: | Andrea Ascani (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Sandro Montresor (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to analyse the sub-national spread of COVID-19 in Italy using an economic geography perspective. The striking spatial unevenness of COVID-19 suggests that the infection hits economic core locations harder, and this raises questions about whether, and how, the sub-national geography of the disease is connected to the local economic base. We provide preliminary evidence consistent with the possibility that the local specialisation in geographically concentrated economic activities acts as a vehicle of disease transmission, thus generating a core-periphery pattern in the spatiality of COVID-19, which might follow the lines of the local economic landscape and the tradability of its outputs. |
| Keywords: | : COVID-19, local economic structure, geographical concentration, tradability |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp1&r=all |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Department of Industrial and Information Engineering and Economics. University of L'Aquila); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the effect of community networks on the location choice of foreign immigrants in Italy. Our results confirm the existence of strong network externalities, but they also suggest that these effects spill over the borders of local labor markets areas (LLMAs). Significant positive spatial spillovers are indeed evident up to the second-order of contiguity, while a negative (spatial competition) effect emerges at the third-order. A possible channel for the generation of these spatial spillovers is the existence of common markets for unskilled and ethnic-specific jobs. |
| Keywords: | Community networks, Immigration, Gravity models, Spatial dependence |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 C14 C21 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp2&r=all |
| By: | Simone Balestra; Aurelien Sallin; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how exposure to students identified as gifted (IQ≥130) affects achievement in secondary school and enrollment in post-compulsory education. By using unique student-level administrative data on achievement combined with psychological examination records, we are able to study the causal impact of gifted students on their classmates in unprecedented detail. We find a positive and significant effect of the exposure to gifted students on school achievement in both math and language. The impact of gifted students is, however, highly heterogeneous along three dimensions. First, we observe the strongest effects among male students and high achievers. Second, we show that male students benefit from the presence of gifted peers in all subjects regardless of their gender, whereas female students seem to benefit exclusively from the presence of female gifted students. Third, we find that gifted students diagnosed with emotional or behavioral disorders have zero-to-negative effects on their classmates' performance, a detrimental effect more pronounced for female students. After compulsory schooling, the results show that exposure to gifted classmates increases the likelihood of choosing a selective academic track. This effect, however, is entirely driven by male students. |
| Keywords: | gifted students, peer quality, gender, math, peer effects |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0170&r=all |
| By: | Quatraro, Francesco; Scandura, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the involvement of academic inventors in local innovation dynamics and the patterns of regional technological diversification. Based on the combination of the evolutionary economic approach and the theories on regional innovation capabilities, and on the distinctive features of academic inventors, we hypothesise that knowledge spillovers accruing from the participation of university scientists to local patenting activity influence the extent of regional technological diversification. In addition, we posit that the involvement of academic inventors mitigates the path dependency engendered by the constraining role of the existing capabilities. The empirical results highlight the key role of academic institutions for the development of regional technological trajectories while contributing to the academic and policy debate on regional diversification strategies. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202010&r=all |
| By: | Luisa Corrado (University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy); Roberta Distante (University of Copenhagen & Nordea, Denmark); Majlinda Joxhe (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We apply a dynamic linear-in-means model to analyze the importance of social ties for the body-weight-related behavior of US youth. Our methodology shows how to estimate peer effects free of the “reflection problem” in a dynamic context where individual- and group-specific unobservable effects are controlled for. Our results show that the main drivers for the body-weight-related behavior are past and peer effects. For individuals who were normal-weight or obese during adolescence, past and peer effects are shown to be both relevant. Peer effects, instead, explain more the variation in the BMI for individuals who were over-weight during adolescence, showing in this way the importance of social interactions for body-weight-related behavior. |
| Keywords: | Over-weight, Obesity, Peer Effects, Social Networks, Personal History, Dynamic Linear-in-means Model |
| JEL: | C01 D10 D71 I19 J11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-06&r=all |
| By: | Emmanuelle Augeraud-Veron (GREThA, UMR 5113, University of Bordeaux, France); Francisco Marhuenda (University Carlos III, UC3M, Madrid, Spain); Pierre M. Picard (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the effect of local interaction in a simple urban eco- nomics model. Agents interact with others if and only if their interaction benefit outweights their travel cost and therefore meet others only within finite geographic windows. We show that two or more cites may co-exist at the equilibrium provided that they are sufficiently distant. For any interaction surplus function, there exists a unique spatial equilibrium on not too large city supports. The population density within a city is determined by a second order advance-delay differential equation, whose solutions are fully characterized for linear interaction surplus functions. Nu- merical analyses show that more localized interactions yield flatter population den- sity and land rents over larger extents of the city support. They do not give support to the idea that multiple subcenters can be caused by small and finite geographic windows of interaction. |
| Keywords: | social interaction, cities, spatial equilibrium. |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-17&r=all |
| By: | Tyler Atkinson; James Dolmas; Christoffer Koch; Evan F. Koenig; Karel Mertens; Anthony Murphy; Kei-Mu Yi |
| Abstract: | We develop a Social Distancing Index (SDI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct SDIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of social distancing occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of social distancing in early April, localities that engaged in 10% more social distancing than average saw an additional 0.6% of their populations claiming unemployment insurance, an additional 2.8 pp reduction in small businesses employment, an additional 2.6 pp increase in small business closures, and an additional 3.2 pp reduction in new-business applications. A gradual and broad-based reduction in social distancing started in the third week of April. |
| Keywords: | Social Distancing Index; Location Data; COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; Social Distancing and Economic Activity |
| JEL: | E66 C15 R11 R19 |
| Date: | 2020–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:88040&r=all |
| By: | Beria, Paolo; Lunkar, Vardhman |
| Abstract: | The non-medical policies implemented to “flatten the curve” and to reduce the stress on the health system during the COVID-19 outbreak represents a critical event in the history of Italy. This kind of “lockdown” has left people stranded in their homes and, for some, out of their homes unable to return to their region of residence due to the disruptions in the mobility network. As a consequence, a vast scale of research is being performed to understand the patterns of mobility of people during the emergency. The availability of rich datasets has made it possible to quantify the dynamics of spatial distribution of people as a response to the strict measures. With the help of the data provided by the Facebook – Data for Good program, an effort is made to describe and to reason on the presence and of mobility patterns of the population at a regional and provincial scale during the lockdown. Our interpretation is that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad managed to return from abroad stabilising the population. Concerning internal mobility, it is evident that the earliest affected Regions see a higher number of stationary users in the initial days of the outbreak. On the other hand, the central and the southern regions does not display a positive relative change of staying home until the official lockdown is announced on the 9th of March, 2020. Before the stricter lockdown started there was not a significant exodus of people from the North to the rest of the country. To the contrary, a visible relocation of people occurred between the cities and their urban belts. |
| Keywords: | covid-19; outbreak; lockdown; mobility; Facebook data for good; location based mobility, big data; social network; Italy |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100896&r=all |
| By: | Peydró, José-Luis (Imperial College London); Rodriguez-Tous, Francesc (Cass Business School); Tripathy, Jagdish (Bank of England); Uluc, Arzu (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Macroprudential regulators worldwide have introduced regulations to limit household leverage in light of existing evidence which suggests that high leverage is associated with household distress during crisis. We analyse the distributional effects of such a macroprudential policy on mortgage and house price cycles. For identification, we exploit the universe of UK mortgages and a 15%-limit imposed in 2014 on lenders — not households — for high loan-to-income ratio (LTI) mortgages. Despite some regulatory arbitrage (eg increases in LTV and average loan size), more-constrained lenders issue fewer high-LTI mortgages. Partial substitution by less-constrained lenders leads to overall credit contraction to low-income borrowers in local-areas more exposed to constrained-lenders, lowering house price growth. Following the Brexit referendum (which led to house-price correction), the 2014-policy strongly implies — via lower pre-correction debt — better house prices and mortgage defaults during an episode of house price correction. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy; mortgages; credit cycles; inequality; house prices |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0866&r=all |
| By: | Yu Aoki; Theodore Koutmeridis |
| Abstract: | We study criminal incentives exploiting the devastating shock of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Evidence shows that the earthquake decreased burglaries but left other crime types unaffected. The effect stays significant even after controlling for unemployment, policing and income. We corroborate this by instrumenting damages with the distance from the earthquake epicentre. These findings survive various robustness checks under different specifications. The evidence is consistent with a simple theory of crime, value and specialization. We conclude that burglars respond to damages that devaluate their prospective takings. Yet, they cannot shift their specialization and substitute burglaries with other crime types |
| Keywords: | crime, burglary, value, housing damage, specialization |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2019-13&r=all |
| By: | Miranti, Ragdad Cani; Mendez-Guerra, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is an archipelago country which comprises of two main parts, western and eastern regions and spread into over 500 districts. Each district has their own characteristics, especially in development aspect. Some districts have been growing faster on economic and social development, yet others still fall behind. Using Human Development Index and its components on education, health and economic variables over 2010- 2018 period, this study aims to examine convergence on the regional human growth process and investigate the speed of convergence across districts. The result reveals convergence occurred on human development process and its determinants across districts during 2010-2018. Education variables are assumed as the main contributor for boosting the speed of convergence of human development. Spatial dependences are detected among districts, followed by the spatial clusters and spatial outliers through global and local spatial autocorrelation. Applying two spatial autoregressive models, spatial autoregressive lag model (SAR) and spatial autoregressive error model (SEM), confirmed that there is significant spatial spill-overs.The speed of convergence for all variables are much declining after the inclusion of spatial lag and error model. As the policy implication, since regional inequality in term of human development is still a major issue, it will be a call for better coordination and cooperation within and between regions. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, human development, convergence, spatial approach, district |
| JEL: | O15 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100479&r=all |
| By: | Sangmin Aum (Myongji University); Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee (Queen Mary University of London and CEPR); Yongseok Shin (Washington University in St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Unlike most countries, Korea did not implement a lockdown in its battle against COVID-19, instead successfully relying on testing and contact tracing. Only one region, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, had a signi cant number of infections, traced to a religious sect. This allows us to estimate the causal effect of the outbreak on the labor market using difference-in-differences. We nd that a one per thousand increase in infections causes a 2 to 3 percent drop in local employment. Non-causal estimates of this coeffcient from the US and UK, which implemented large-scale lockdowns, range from 5 to 6 percent, suggesting that at most half of the job losses in the US and UK can be attributed to lockdowns. We also nd that employment losses caused by local outbreaks in the absence of lockdowns are (i) mainly due to reduced hiring by small establishments, (ii) concentrated in the accommodation/food, education, real estate, and transportation industries, and (iii) worst for the economically vulnerable workers who are less educated, young, in low-wage occupations, and on temporary contracts, even controlling for industry effects. All these patterns are similar to what we observe in the US and UK: The unequal effects of COVID-19 are the same with or without lockdowns. Our nding suggests that the lifting of lockdowns in the US and UK may lead to only modest recoveries in employment unless COVID-19 infection rates fall. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, regional difference-in-differences, labour market, inequality |
| JEL: | E24 I14 J2 |
| Date: | 2020–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:904&r=all |
| By: | Van Bekkum, Sjoerd; Gabarró, Marc; Irani, Rustom; Peydró, José-Luis |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household-level. For identification, we exploit administrative Dutch tax-return and property ownership data linked to the universe of housing transactions, and the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value limit. The regulation reduces mortgage leverage, with bunching in its limit. Ex-ante more-affected households substantially reduce overall leverage and debt servicing costs but consume greater liquidity to satisfy the regulation. Improvements in household solvency result in less financial distress and, given negative idiosyncratic shocks, better liquidity management. However, fewer households transition from renting into ownership. All of these effects are stronger for liquidity-constrained households. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy,residential mortgages,solvency vs. liquidity tradeoff,household leverage,loan-to-valud ratio |
| JEL: | E21 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:216797&r=all |
| By: | Aguirregabiria, Victor; Gu, Jiaying; Luo, Yao; Mira, Pedro Solbes |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a dynamic structural model to evaluate economic and public health effects of the diffusion of COVID-19, as well as the impact of factual and counterfactual public policies. Our framework combines a SIR epidemiological model of virus diffusion with a structural game of network production and social interactions. The economy comprises three types of geographic locations: homes, workplaces, and consumption places. Each individual has her own set of locations where she develops her life. The combination of these sets for all the individuals determines the economy's production and social network. Every day, individuals choose to work and consume either outside (with physical interaction with other people) or remotely (from home, without physical interactions). Working (and consuming) outside is more productive and generates stronger complementarities (positive externality). However, in the presence of a virus, working outside facilitates infection and the diffusion of the virus (negative externality). Individuals are forward-looking. We characterize an equilibrium of the dynamic network game and present an algorithm for its computation. We describe the estimation of the parameters of the model combining several sources of data on COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada: daily epidemiological data; hourly electricity consumption data; and daily cell phone data on individuals' mobility. We use the model to evaluate the health and economic impact of several counterfactual public policies: subsidies for working at home; testing policies; herd immunity; and changes in the network structure. These policies generate substantial differences in the propagation of the virus and its economic impact. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Disease-Specific Public Health Interventions; dynamics; Production and social networks; Production externalities; Virus diffusion |
| JEL: | C57 C73 I18 L14 L23 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14750&r=all |
| By: | Tyner, Adam (Thomas B. Fordham Institute); Gershenson, Seth (American University) |
| Abstract: | Evidence of grade inflation in U.S. high schools is often misinterpreted due to confusion about how grade inflation is, or should be, defined. This note clarifies the implications of recent research on grade inflation in two ways. First, we situate the evidence by defining three distinct types of grade inflation. Second, we extend past research using data from North Carolina by documenting the different types of grade inflation experienced by high school students in the state over a recent ten-year period. Static grade inflation has been, and remains, higher in schools serving relatively disadvantaged student populations; however, differential growth in grade inflation in schools serving relatively advantaged student populations over the past 10 years has significantly narrowed this SES-based gap in grade inflation. |
| Keywords: | grade inflation, achievement gaps, grading standards |
| JEL: | I26 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13291&r=all |
| By: | Fasani, Francesco; Frattini, Tommaso; Minale, Luigi |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the medium to long-term effects on refugee labour market outcomes of the temporary employment bans being imposed in many countries on recently arrived asylum seekers. Using a newly collected dataset covering almost 30 years of employment restrictions together with individual data for refugees entering European countries between 1985 and 2012, our empirical strategy exploits the geographical and temporal variation in employment bans generated by staggered introduction and removal coupled with frequent changes at the intensive margin. We find that exposure to a ban at arrival reduces refugee employment probability in post-ban years by 15%, an impact driven primarily by lower labour market participation. These effects are not mechanical, since we exclude refugees who may still be subject to employment restrictions, are non-linear in ban length, confirming that the very first months following arrival play a key role in shaping integration prospects, and last up to 10 years post arrival. We further demonstrate that the detrimental effects of employment bans are concentrated among less educated refugees, translate into lower occupational quality, and seem not to be driven by selective migration. Our causal estimates are robust to several identification tests accounting for the potential endogeneity of employment ban policies, including placebo analysis of non-refugee migrants and an instrumental variable strategy. To illustrate the costs of these employment restrictions, we estimate a EUR 37.6 billion output loss from the bans imposed on asylum seekers who arrived in Europe during the so-called 2015 refugee crisis. |
| Keywords: | asylum policies; asylum seekers; economic assimilation |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14765&r=all |
| By: | Joseph Price; Christian vom Lehn; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | Using recent innovations in linking historical U.S. Census data, we study the economic impacts of immigration on natives, including their geographic migration response. We find that the arrival of foreign immigrants significantly increases both native out-migration and in-migration. Accounting for this selective geographic migration, we find smaller economic impacts of immigration for native workers than previous work, including no positive impact on worker incomes. We present evidence of significant “losers” from increased immigration, namely workers who appear to be displaced by immigrant labor and move out of their local labor market, whereas the workers who remain see significant benefits. We also find that younger and lowerskilled workers are “losers” from increased immigration, whereas older and higher-skilled workers are “winners.” |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27156&r=all |
| By: | Cem Özgüzel |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates agglomeration economies in Great Britain. The analysis employs a definition of urban areas as functional economic units developed by the OECD in collaboration with the European Union to investigate the size and sources of productivity disparities across urban areas. It uses data from the UK Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and the UK Labour Force Survey between 2000 and 2018 and a two-step estimation procedure that accounts for bias in the extent of agglomeration economies arising from individual sorting. The results suggest that a 10% increase in employment density of a city in Great Britain, would, on average, increase city productivity by 0.9-1 percent. The analysis also shows the estimated elasticity for employment density remains the same before and after the 2007–08 global financial crisis, not showing any clear structural break between city size and productivity relationship. |
| Keywords: | Great Britain, local labour markets, spatial wage disparities |
| JEL: | R12 R23 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2020/04-en&r=all |
| By: | Burchardi, Konrad B.; Chaney, Thomas; Hassan, Tarek Alexander; Tarquinio, Lisa; Terry, Stephen |
| Abstract: | We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and dynamism in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties that results purely from the interaction of two historical forces: (i) changes over time in the relative attractiveness of different destinations within the US to the average migrant arriving at the time and (ii) the staggered timing of the arrival of migrants from different origin countries. We then use this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition to predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show four main results. First, immigration has a positive impact on innovation, measured by the patenting of local firms. Second, immigration has a positive impact on measures of local economic dynamism. Third, the positive impact of immigration on innovation percolates over space, but spatial spillovers quickly die out with distance. Fourth, the impact of immigration on innovation is stronger for more educated migrants. |
| Keywords: | dynamism; Endogenous Growth; Innovation; Migrations; patents |
| JEL: | J61 O31 O40 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14719&r=all |
| By: | McKendrick, Andrew (Lancaster University); Walker, Ian (Lancaster University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the roles played by intrinsic religiosity and faith-based education in both short and long-term outcomes among young people in England. England is a good laboratory for this work as it has a substantial share of publicly funded faith schools. This is in contrast to the US, where much of the literature of faith (mostly Catholic) schools is rooted, and other developed countries who tend to have faith schools that are fee-paying. We use a cohort study from England that contains a detailed and extensive range of individual, parental, household, and secondary school level controls. In the absence of any convincing quasi-experimental method to identify the effects of interest, the research relies on the very detailed nature of the data to support a methodology based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), augmented by the Oster (2017) test, to provide plausible and robust estimates of the impacts of both religious belief and faith schooling. We show that an individual's intrinsic religiosity is an important driver of short-term educational outcomes (such as age 16 test scores) and some longer-term outcomes (Christian belief at age 25), while faith-based schooling plays a lesser role. Faith schools perform well in terms of their ethos and environment, with lower incidences of bullying within them and greater parental satisfaction with how they operate. |
| Keywords: | religiosity, faith schools, belief |
| JEL: | I21 Z12 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13192&r=all |
| By: | Riccardo Turati (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of network-based connectedness on the diffusion of cultural traits. Using Gallup World Poll data on 148 countries on individual connectedness, opinions and beliefs, we find that natives who have a connection abroad are associated with higher levels of social behavior, religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. Due to the endogenous nature of the variables, we strongly mitigate the threat of selection into connectedness by showing robust estimates even after controlling for broad measure of connectedness and performing propensity score and covariate matching techniques. Statistical tests are carefully implemented to quantify the selection threat of unobserved factors, which appears negligible. Our evidence shows that connectedness leads to cultural convergence across regions, while increases cultural heterogeneity within regions. Exploring the mechanisms by which these effects occur, we provide evidence that the effects are precisely estimated among less educated natives and that connectedness affects economic outcomes through remittances. We estimate differential cultural effects based on the connection’s country of residence, suggesting a destination-specific transfer of norms. Overall, the effects on social behavior are sizeable at the global level, once simulations based on estimated coefficients are performed. Although robust and certainly not negligible, gender-egalitarian and pro-religiosity effects of connectedness are limited. |
| Keywords: | Cultural change, connectedness, international migration, gender-egalitarian views, religiosity, social behavior |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2020–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020012&r=all |
| By: | Carozzi, Felipe (London School of Economics); Roth, Sefi (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the effect of urban density on the exposure of city dwellers to air pollution using data from the United States urban system. Exploiting geological features to instrument for density, we find an economically and statistically significant pollution-density elasticity of 0.13. We also assess the health implications of these estimates and find that doubling density in an average city increases annual mortality costs by $630 per capita. Our findings highlight the possible trade-off between reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, which is associated with denser cities according to prior research, and preserving local air quality and human health within cities. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, cities, density, health |
| JEL: | Q53 R11 I10 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13191&r=all |
| By: | Diane Alexander; Ezra Karger |
| Abstract: | We link the county-level rollout of stay-at-home orders to anonymized cell phone records and consumer spending data. We document three patterns. First, stay-at-home orders caused people to stay at home: County-level measures of mobility declined 9–13% by the day after the stay-at-home order went into effect. Second, stay-at-home orders caused large reductions in spending in sectors associated with mobility: restaurants and retail stores. However, consumers sharply increased spending on food delivery services after orders went into effect. Third, while the response of residents to stay-at-home orders was fairly uniform across the country, there is substantial county-level heterogeneity in consumer behavior in the days before and after a stay-at-home order. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; consumer spending; high-frequency data; stay-at-home orders |
| JEL: | E21 I12 R20 R50 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:87999&r=all |
| By: | Makofske, Matthew |
| Abstract: | A moving-violation traffic stop is pretextual when it is motivated by suspicion of an unrelated crime. Despite concerns that they infringe on civil liberties and enable discrimination against minority motorists; evidence on the use, frequency, and nature of pretextual stops is mostly anecdotal. Using nearly a decade's worth of traffic citation data from Louisville, KY, I find evidence suggesting that pretextual stops predicated on a particular moving violation—failure to signal—were relatively frequent. Compared to stops involving other similarly common moving violations, where arrest rates range from 0.01 to 0.09, stops involving failure-to-signal yield an arrest rate of 0.42. More importantly, pretext to stop a vehicle requires only one traffic violation. In stops involving failure-to-signal, the arrest rate is 0.52 when no other traffic violations are cited, and the presence of other traffic violations yields a 55% relative decrease in the probability of arrest. Relative to conventional traffic stops, black and Hispanic motorists account for a disproportionate share of likely pretextual stops. Yet, within likely pretextual stops, they are arrested at a significantly lower rate than other motorists. Following departmental adoption of body-worn cameras (body cams) I find that the arrest rate in likely pretextual stops increases 33-34%, and the racial disparity in the arrest rate becomes much smaller and statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | pretextual traffic stop, racial bias, law enforcement |
| JEL: | J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2020–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100792&r=all |
| By: | Yasenov, Vasil (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many states have adopted stay-at-home orders, rendering a large segment of the workforce unable to continue doing their jobs. These policies have distributional consequences, as workers in some occupations may be better able to continue their work from home. I identify the segments of the U.S. workforce that can plausibly work from home by linking occupation data from O*NET to the American Community Survey. I find that lower-wage workers are up to three times less likely to be able to work from home than higher-wage workers. Those with lower levels of education, younger adults, ethnic minorities, and immigrants are also concentrated in occupations that are less likely to be performed from home. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, stay-at-home orders, work from home, O*NET |
| JEL: | J1 I3 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13197&r=all |
| By: | Sveta MILUSHEVA |
| Abstract: | Populations are highly mobile, both in terms of long term movements of individuals relocating their place of residence as well as shorter term mobility such as commuting, seasonal travel and recreational trips. Working with call detail record data from Namibia and Senegal, we study population migration and its link to short term movement. We compare the short term mobility estimates extracted from call detail records to census data in the two countries and find a strong annual relationship, as well as distinct daily patterns in the relationship between long and short term movement. The relationship is strongest for holidays, and we find it to be consistent both across countries as well as across multiple years. In particular, we observe periods of increased travel on migration routes around holidays, with net short term travel in the opposite direction of the direction of migration before the holiday and net travel in the same direction after. Using the Namibia data set, which spans several years, we investigate the link between short term mobility and long term relocation on an individual level, allowing us to gain insights into the mechanisms of interaction of short and long term mobility. We find that it is common for individuals to both visit the place they will migrate to prior to migration and also visit their place of origin after migrating. Additionally, distance between the origin and destination of a migration has a significant influence on the probability of a short term trip associated with a long term move.The Senegal dataset provides information on the full network of users, which we use to study the relationship between the location of network contacts and probability of traveling to those locations, investigating the importance of social contacts for mobility. We find that while the majority of social contacts in different regions can be explained by long term migration patterns between regions, which in turn are linked to short term movement patterns, social contacts can explain some of the additional short term movement not captured by the long term migration. We also find non-linear relationships between the probability of visiting a region and the number and strength of contacts, as well as between the duration of a visit and social contacts. These results can help inform evidence-based policies that target some of the negative externalities of short term population movement such as spread of infectious disease, increased congestion, and inadequate infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Sénégal |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2018–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en8646&r=all |
| By: | Antonio Abatemarco (Università di Salerno); Mariagrazia Cavallo (University of Bristol); Immacolata Marino (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Giuseppe Russo (Università di Salerno, CSEF and GLO) |
| Abstract: | A double disadvantage occurs when the interaction of two disadvantages generates an additional disadvantage. We show that second-generation children in the Italian primary school experience a double disadvantage in Italian and Math scores. The double disadvantage stems from the interaction of the immigration background and age effects. |
| Keywords: | immigration, second generation, education, double disadvantage |
| JEL: | I21 J01 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:567&r=all |
| By: | Trung Tran; Manh Toan Ho; Thanh-Hang Pham; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Khanh Linh K.L.P. Nguyen; Thu Trang Vuong; Thanh Huyen T.H.T. Nguyen; Thanh Dung Nguyen; Thi Linh Nguyen; Quy Khuc; Viet Phuong La; Quan-Hoang Vuong |
| Abstract: | As a generation of 'digital natives,' secondary students who were born from 2002 to 2010 have various approaches to acquiring digital knowledge. Digital literacy and resilience are crucial for them to navigate the digital world as much as the real world; however, these remain under-researched subjects, especially in developing countries. In Vietnam, the education system has put considerable effort into teaching students these skills to promote quality education as part of the United Nations-defined Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4). This issue has proven especially salient amid the COVID?19 pandemic lockdowns, which had obliged most schools to switch to online forms of teaching. This study, which utilizes a dataset of 1061 Vietnamese students taken from the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)'s "Digital Kids Asia Pacific (DKAP)" project, employs Bayesian statistics to explore the relationship between the students' background and their digital abilities. Results show that economic status and parents' level of education are positively correlated with digital literacy. Students from urban schools have only a slightly higher level of digital literacy than their rural counterparts, suggesting that school location may not be a defining explanatory element in the variation of digital literacy and resilience among Vietnamese students. Students' digital literacy and, especially resilience, also have associations with their gender. Moreover, as students are digitally literate, they are more likely to be digitally resilient. Following SDG4, i.e. Quality Education, it is advisable for schools, and especially parents, to seriously invest in creating a safe, educational environment to enhance digital literacy among students. |
| Keywords: | Bayesvl; Digital age; Digital literacy; Digital resilience; Parental education; Quality education; Socio-economic status; Sustainable Development Goal 4; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/307292&r=all |
| By: | Mario F. Carillo (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Tullio Jappelli (Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused about 600,000 deaths in Italy, a death rate of about 1.2%. We find evidence of a strong and significant adverse effect of the pandemic on regional growth. In particular, going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of about 6.5%, which dissipated within three years. In line with this finding, we also estimate a small and transitory negative effect of the influenza on industrialization. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on local economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions. |
| Keywords: | Great Influenza; regional growth; mortality and growth |
| Date: | 2020–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:568&r=all |
| By: | Victor Chernozhukov; Hiroyuki Kasaha; Paul Schrimpf |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies, such as school, business, and restaurant closures, adopted by the US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into consideration of people's voluntarily behavioral response to new information of transmission risks. Using the US state-level data, our analysis finds that both policies and information on transmission risks are important determinants of people's social distancing behavior, and shows that a change in policies explains a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. Our counterfactual experiments indicate that removing all policies would have lead to 30 to 200 times more additional cases by late May. Removing only the non-essential businesses closures (while maintaining restrictions on movie theaters and restaurants) would have increased the weekly growth rate of cases between -0.02 and 0.06 and would have lead to -10% to 40% more cases by late May. Finally, nationally mandating face masks for employees on April 1st would have reduced the case growth rate by 0.1-0.25. This leads to 30% to 57% fewer reported cases by late May, which translates into, roughly, 30-57 thousand saved lives. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2005.14168&r=all |
| By: | Simon Mongey; Laura Pilossoph; Alexander Weinberg |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, nearly all U.S. states imposed social distancing policies to combat the spread of illness. To the extent that work can be done from home, some workers moved their offices to their abodes. Others, however, are unable to continue working as their usual tasks require a specific location or environment, or involve close proximity to others. Which types of jobs cannot be done from home and which types of jobs require close personal proximity to others? What share of overall U.S. employment falls in these categories? And, given that these jobs will be the most adversely affected, what are the characteristics of workers employed in these jobs? The final question is of particular importance as the government designs and implements policies aimed at helping the workers hardest hit by the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus; employment; social policy; occupations; demographics; flexible work arrangements; COVID-19; diversity |
| JEL: | J01 |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:88086&r=all |
| By: | Simon Calmar Andersen (Aarhus Universitet); Ulrik Hvidman |
| Abstract: | Although many educational programs have demonstrated the potential to increase student learning, few examples of successful scaling exist. We study the scalability of a parent-aimed reading program that has shown promising results in an experiment within a local government. Using a nationwide experiment among the full population of 2nd-grade children in Danish public schools (n=51,312), we find that the program is less effective at large scale. We provide evidence on potential explanations for the lack of scalability, which suggests that implementation fidelity is the most important barrier to successfully scaling this type of educational interventions. |
| Keywords: | implementation, experiment |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-039&r=all |
| By: | Luiz Brotherhood; Philipp Kircher; Cezar Santos; Michéle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of testing and age-composition in the Covid-19 epidemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices regarding how much time to spend working and consuming outside the house, both of which increase the risk of transmission. Individuals who have flu symptoms are unsure whether they caught Covid-19 or simply a common cold. Testing reduces the time of uncertainty. Individuals are heterogeneous with respect to age. Younger people are less likely to die, exacerbating their willingness to take risks and to impose externalities on the old. We explore heterogeneous policy responses in terms of testing, confinements, and selective mixing by age group. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, testing, social distancing, age-specific policies |
| JEL: | E17 C63 D62 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_175&r=all |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Akcigit, Ufuk; Bergeaud, Antonin; Blundell, Richard; Hemous, David |
| Abstract: | In this article, we use cross-state panel and cross-U.S. commuting-zone data to look at the relationship between innovation, top income inequality and social mobility. We find positive correlations between measures of innovation and top income inequality. We also show that the correlations between innovation and broad measures of inequality are not significant. Next, using instrumental variable analysis, we argue that these correlations at least partly reflect a causality from innovation to top income shares. Finally, we show that innovation, particularly by new entrants, is positively associated with social mobility, but less so in local areas with more intense lobbying activities. |
| Keywords: | Citations; Entrant; Incumbents; Inequality; Innovation; Patenting; Social Mobility; Top Income |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O33 O34 O40 O47 D63 J14 J15 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100356&r=all |
| By: | Jian Chu (Nanjing University); Raymond Fisman (Boston University); Songtao Tan (Renmin University of China); Yongxiang Wang (University of Southern California, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai) |
| Abstract: | Audits are a standard mechanism for reducing corruption in government investments. The quality of audits themselves, however, may be affected by relationships between auditor and target. We study whether provincial chief auditors in China show greater leniency in evaluating prefecture governments in their hometowns. In city-fixed-effect specifications – in which the role of shared background is identified from auditor turnover – we show that hometown auditors find 38 percent less in questionable monies. This hometown effect is similar throughout the auditor’s tenure, and is diminished for audits ordered by the provincial Organizations Department as a result of the departure of top city officials. We argue that our findings are most readily explained by favoritism rather than an endogenous response by local officials to concerns of better enforcement by hometown auditors. We complement these city-level findings with firm-level analyses of earnings manipulation by state-owned enterprises via real activity manipulation (a standard measure from the accounting literature), which we show is higher under hometown auditors. |
| Keywords: | Social Ties, Audit quality, State-owned enterprise, Government investment, China |
| JEL: | D73 G3 M42 H83 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-343&r=all |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Cinnirella, Francesco (University of Bergamo) |
| Abstract: | We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy. |
| Keywords: | religion, segregation, literacy, fertility, Prussia |
| JEL: | J13 J15 I21 N33 Z12 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13193&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Ecole Centrale de Marseille, France. Corresponding member, IRES, UCLouvain, Belgium.); Giorgio Fabbri (Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL); Salvatore Federico (Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica); Fausto Gozzi (Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, Roma) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the theory of spatial externalities. In particular, we depart in several respects from the important literature studying the fundamental pollution free riding problem uncovered in the associated empirical works. First, instead of assuming ad hoc pollution diffusion schemes across space, we consider a realistic spatiotemporal law of motion for air and water pollution (diffusion and advection). Second, we tackle spatiotemporal non-cooperative (and cooperative) differential games. Precisely, we consider a circle partitioned into several states where a local authority decides autonomously about its investment, production and depollution strategies over time knowing that investment/production generates pollution, and pollution is transboundary. The time horizon is infinite. Third, we allow for a rich set of geographic heterogeneities across states while the literature assumes identical states. We solve analytically the induced non-cooperative differential game under decentralization and fully characterize the resulting long-term spatial distributions. We further provide with full exploration of the free riding problem, reflected in the so-called border effects. In particular, net pollution flows diffuse at an increasing rate as we approach the borders, with strong asymmetries under advection, and structural breaks show up at the borders. We also build a formal case in which a larger number of states goes with the exacerbation of pollution externalities. Finally, we explore how geographic discrepancies affect the shape of the border effects. |
| Keywords: | Spatial externalities, environmental federalism, transboundary pollution, differential games in continuous time and space, infinite dimensional optimal control problems |
| JEL: | Q53 R12 O13 C72 C61 O44 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020017&r=all |
| By: | Paul Gregg (Department of Social & Policy Sciences, University of Bath); Lindsey Macmillan (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies of intergenerational income mobility have used cross-area and cross-national variation in intergenerational elasticities to explore possible drivers of persistence in incomes across generations. We contribute to this literature, and the parallel literature on the effects of social exclusion, utilising a conceptual framework to explore the role of family factors (education and welfare generosity) and labour market conditions in accounting for intergenerational joblessness across Europe. Country-level differences suggest that lower expenditure on education and less generous welfare systems are associated with more intergenerational persistence in jobless spells across countries. We show that simple explanations, such as high unemployment and low education alone do not account for individual-level intergenerational joblessness. Instead, a combination of living in a jobless household in (late) childhood, low education and weak labour markets co-load to create penalties. Taken together, the individual- and country-level analysis point to multiple disadvantage creating persistence of deprivation across generations rather than individual risk factors. This suggests that a targeted and combined policy intervention is required to reduce such associations. |
| Keywords: | Joblessness; Poverty; Education; Labour markets; Welfare |
| JEL: | J62 J64 I24 I38 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:20-11&r=all |
| By: | Maria Marchenko (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Art often serves as an investment tool. However, the prices for some of the pieces are not easy to predict, and removing the price uncertainty is crucial to attracting even more investment in the art market. This paper assumes that the reputation of the artists and their social connections can play a significant role in determining the prices of their work. I check if a link to a higher valued or more famous peer has a positive effect on the prices of art pieces and on the probability of a successful sale. To test this hypothesis, I use the network of abstract artists, whose works' value is not always straightforward determined, and the prices of their works auctioned in 2000-2015 at Sotheby's, one of the most significant art and collectibles brokers in the world. The results suggest that consumers are willing to pay more for a particular artist's work, once there is a connection between the artist and a more valuable set of peers. However, the probability of sale is not affected. The auctioneer's predictions about future prices exhibit a similar trend. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, art prices, art market |
| JEL: | C49 D44 D85 Z11 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp298&r=all |
| By: | Emma Hooper (Direction générale du Trésor); Sanjay Peters (Columbia University, New York, NY, USA); Patrick A. Pintus (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | An in-depth econometric analysis of US state-level data on an annual frequency, from 1976 to 2008, sheds new light on a plausible causal link between infrastructure investments, namely public spending on highways, and income inequality. This causal relationship is drawn out by using the number of seats in the US House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations (HRCA) as an instrument to identify quasi-random variations in state-level spending on highways. An exogenous pattern which emerges when a state gains an additional member to the HRCA is that it is allocated with new federal grants. This increase in federal transfers for infrastructure financing results in slashing of expenditures on highways and a crowding-out effect of federal funding for state investments on highways. Spending cuts on highways produced by a new HRCA member being attained by a state can unwittingly cause income inequality to rise over a short two-year time horizon. Similar challenges with decentralized development to finance infrastructure via federal transfers to state and sub-national governments may be encountered by other industrially advanced, emerging and low-income developing economies. US data over the mentioned period reveal a strong positive correlation with state spending on highways and wages paid for construction jobs. Suggestive evidence indicates that the construction sector also plays an important role in the transmission channel from a rise in state spending on highways to lowering income inequality, albeit during specific intervals, as opposed to on a long-term basis. |
| Keywords: | public infrastructure, highways, income inequality, US state panel data, instrument variable |
| JEL: | C23 D31 H72 O51 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2019&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD |
| Abstract: | Consumers are purchasing and using partially automated vehicles, yet little research has been conducted to understand how and if these vehicles are changing travel behavior. Fully automated, or driverless, vehicles are receiving much more research and policy attention but are still many years from market introduction. Research on fully automated vehicles has shown that, without proper policies in place, these vehicles could increase vehicle miles travelled (VMT). Tesla vehicle models with the ‘Autopilot’ feature are some of the most common partially automated vehicles on the road today. A partially automated vehicle provides advanced driver assistance by controlling steering, acceleration/ deceleration, and braking; however, the human driver is still considered to be in control of the vehicle and is expected to be attentive. A previous UC Davis study found that Tesla vehicle owners with the Autopilot feature drove more than those without Autopilot, but the study did not determine whether higher VMT was caused by Autopilot. To better understand whether Autopilot influences how much individuals drive, the UC Davis research team interviewed 36 Tesla Autopilot users to evaluate whether they experienced changes to their travel, and the reasons for any reported changes. Key findings from the interviews are presented in this brief. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, autonomous vehicles, travel behavior, vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1m2917dq&r=all |
| By: | Nolan, Jared |
| Abstract: | In this brief, we explore what might happen were SB 50 to pass by taking a detailed look at local market conditions in four case study neighborhoods. Local context shapes financial and physical feasibility. When SB 827, the predecessor to SB 50, was under consideration, estimates of its impact on new housing supply were optimistic. Yet, most of these estimates focused on aggregate development potential and did not consider the on-the-ground reality of other zoning provisions that may influence development, what types of projects might pencil out, or what the existing stock looks like. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1rw1z3mx&r=all |
| By: | Shilling, Fraser |
| Abstract: | As roads and other developed land uses proliferate, the resulting habitat fragmentation and loss of wildlife connectivity hinder animals’ ability to forage, establish new territories, and maintain genetic diversity. Wildlife crossing structures such as culverts and bridges theoretically can reduce these impacts by allowing species to effectively cross highways. However, previous research has shown that traffic presence and density can disrupt wildlife use of highway crossing structures, and that noise and light from human activities can affect animal behavior. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, Road Ecology Center measured traffic noise and light levels and placed motion- and heat-triggered cameras at 26 bridges and culverts along four interstate highways, 11 state highways and one major county road across California. The presence and behavior of animals at these highway crossing structures were compared to those detected at sites unaffected by roads to understand the effects of noise and light from a highway on wildlife behavior. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Life Sciences, Animal vehicle crashes, Ecology, Habitat (Ecology), Traffic noise, Wildlife, Wildlife crossings |
| Date: | 2020–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5qd8z1fb&r=all |
| By: | Carolina Caetano; Gregorio Caetano; Eric R. Nielsen |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of enrichment activities such as reading, homework, and extracurricular lessons on children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We take into consideration that children forgo alternative activities, such as play and socializing, in order to spend time on enrichment. Our study controls for selection on unobservables using a novel approach which leverages the fact that many children spend zero hours per week on enrichment activities. At zero enrichment, confounders vary but enrichment does not, which gives us direct information about the effect of confounders on skills. Using time diary data available in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find that the net effect of enrichment is zero for cognitive skills and negative for non-cognitive skills, which suggests that enrichment may be crowding out more productive activities on the margin. The negative effects on non-cognitive skills are concentrated in higher-income students in high school, consistent with elevated academic competition related to college admissions. |
| Keywords: | Time use; Enrichment; Bunching; Cognitive skills; Homework; College; Skill development; Non-cognitive skills; Human capital |
| JEL: | C24 I20 I21 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-36&r=all |
| By: | Michel Beine (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Joël Machado (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Ilse Ruyssen (CESSMIR, Ghent University and Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how countries' provision of migrant rights affects potential migrants' destination choice. Combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on policies in 38 destination countries over the period 2007-2014, we find that potential migrants tend to favour destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society. In particular, better access to and conditions on the labour market, as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency significantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country. These results hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations and are robust to a set of methodological concerns, including endogeneity. Moreover, results of some policies vary across types of respondents. Educational opportunities for migrants, for instance, affect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24 years, but not of individuals in other age groups. |
| Keywords: | Migration desires, Migrants' destination choice, Migrant rights, Quality of institutions |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-07&r=all |
| By: | Ilona Berková (Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia In České Budějovice) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper was to describe the literature overview of companies’ location in the context of the economy and the assessment of companies’ performance. Then there is the introduction of a new statistical methodology for the description of the location of companies because the location of companies is one of the most important factors which ensures the future successful development of a company. The methodology can be applied for the evaluation of companies’ location and could answer the question of where it is better to place a new company. To tackle the location of companies, the local population and the health of companies was taken into account. The methodology is based on a point process. Since the population is unevenly distributed and companies choose their locations according to the size of the local population, it was not possible to use homogeneous models and thus the local scaling principals were used for modeling the inhomogeneity. For the evaluation of the health of companies, Neumeiers’ indices were taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Location theories, Clustering, Health of companies, Local scaling, L-function, Global envelope test |
| JEL: | C21 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:02_2020&r=all |