nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒11
58 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder By Jean Flemming
  2. The Propagation of Demand Shocks Through Housing Markets By Elliot Anenberg; Daniel R. Ringo
  3. Housing Wealth or Collateral: How Home Value Shocks Drive Home Equity Extraction and Spending By Soeren Leth-Petersen; Henrik Yde Andersen
  4. The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs By Kajuth, Florian
  5. Determinants of Teacher Value-Added in Public Primary Schools: Evidence from Administrative Panel Data By Tanaka, Ryuichi; Bessho, Shun-ichiro; Kawamura, Akira; Noguchi, Haruko; Ushijima, Koichi
  6. Methods to Evaluate Agglomeration Effects in Transport System appraisal Frameworks By Haapamäki, Taina; Kauhanen, Antti; Laakso, Seppo; Metsäranta, Heikki; Ojanperä, Marianna; Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko
  7. Does Proximity to Fast Food Cause Childhood Obesity? Evidence from Public Housing By Jeehee Han; Amy Ellen Schwartz; Brian Elbel
  8. Flooded cities By Kocornik-Mina, Adriana; McDermott, Thomas K.J.; Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand
  9. Regional inequality in Europe: Evidence, theory and policy implications By Iammarino, Simona; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael
  10. Institutions and the fortunes of territories By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  11. Inequality in access to grammar schools By Matt Dickson; Lindsey Macmilllan
  12. Smart Specialization Strategies at National, Regional, or Local Levels? Synergy and Policy-making in German Systems of Innovation By Henriette Ruhrmann; Michael Fritsch; Loet Leydesdorff
  13. It Takes a Village: The Economics of Parenting with Neighborhood and Peer Effects By Agostinelli, Francesco; Doepke, Matthias; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
  14. Within-bank spillovers of real estate shocks By Cuñat, Vicente; Cvijanovic, Dragana; Yuan, Kathy
  15. Working from Home, Wages, and Regional Inequality in the Light of COVID-19 By Michael Irlacher; Michael Koch
  16. The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook By Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
  17. Lift the Ban? Initial Employment Restrictions and Refugee Labour Market Outcomes By Fasani, Francesco; Frattini, Tommaso; Minale, Luigi
  18. Hinterlands, city formation and growth: evidence from the U.S. westward expansion By David Krisztián Nagy
  19. Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending and credit risks By Stefanie Behncke
  20. Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment: Evidence from School Reform in Chile By Berthelon, Matias; Kruger, Diana; Lauer, Catalina; Tiberti, Luca; Zamora, Carlos
  21. The impact of classroom, school, neighborhood, and institutional factors on teachers’ expectations By Becker, Dominik; Wessling, Katarina
  22. A spatial analysis of inward FDI and rural-urban wage inequality: Evidence from China By Wang, Hao; Fidrmuc, Jan; Luo, Qi
  23. Issues In Disintermediation In The Real Estate Brokerage Sector By Michael C. Nwogugu
  24. Spatial dependence in the rank-size distribution of cities By Rolf Bergs
  25. Compilation of commercial property price indices for Germany tailored for policy use By Knetsch, Thomas A.
  26. Tracking Public and Private Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions By Sumedha Gupta; Thuy D. Nguyen; Felipe Lozano Rojas; Shyam Raman; Byungkyu Lee; Ana Bento; Kosali I. Simon; Coady Wing
  27. Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship By Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Ajzenman, Nicolás; Guriev, Sergei
  28. Managers' Productivity and Labor Market: Evidence from School Principals By Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  29. Beyond Reading, Writing, and Arithmetic: The Role of Teachers and Schools in Reporting Child Maltreatment By Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Cassandra Benson; Samuel R. Bondurant
  30. Group-Size Bias in the Measurement of Residential Sorting By Mohana Mondal; Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot
  31. Who Can Work from Home? By Yasenov, Vasil
  32. Measuring price dynamics of package holidays with transaction data By Henn, Karola; Islam, Chris-Gabriel; Schwind, Patrick; Wieland, Elisabeth
  33. The Impact of COVID-19 on Public Space: A Review of the Emerging Questions By Honey-Roses, Jordi; Anguelovski, Isabelle; Bohigas, Josep; Chireh, Vincent; Daher, Carolyn; Konijnendijk, Cecil; Litt, Jill; Mawani, Vrushti; McCall, Mike; Orellana, Arturo
  34. Cultural Gender Norms and Neighbourhood Exposure: Impacts on the Gender Gap in Math By Ericsson, Sanna
  35. Immigration Policy Levers for US Innovation and Startups By Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr
  36. Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions? By Avi Goldfarb; Catherine Tucker
  37. Microsimulation of residential activity for alternative urban development scenarios: A case study on brussels and flemish brabant By Frederik Priem; Philip Stessens; Frank Canters
  38. Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from China By Hsu, Wen-Tai; Lu, Yi; Luo, Xuan; Zhu, Lianming
  39. Minimum Wages and Firm-Level Employment in a Developing Country By Sjöholm, Fredrik
  40. Pareto Efficiency in Weighted School Choice Problems By Nadja Stroh-Maraun
  41. Role of Land Access in Youth Migration and Youth Employment Decisions: Empirical Evidence from Rural Nigeria By Hosaena Ghebru; Mulubrhan Amare; George Mavrotas; Adebayo Ogunniyi
  42. Do Female Role Models Reduce the Gender Gap in Science? Evidence from French High Schools By Breda, Thomas; Grenet, Julien; Monnet, Marion; Van Effenterre, Clémentine
  43. Do Swedish schools discriminate against children with disabilities? By Ahmed, Ali; Hammarstedt, Mats; Karlsson, Karl
  44. Commitments and sunk costs in private mobility: A study of Swiss households facing green transport choices By Jeremy van Dijk; Mehdi Farsi; Sylvain Weber
  45. Hometown Ties and the Quality of Government Monitoring: Evidence from Rotation of Chinese Auditors By Jian Chu; Raymond Fisman; Songtao Tan; Yongxiang Wang
  46. East Prussia 2.0: Persistent regions, rising nations By Polugodina, Maria; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
  47. The Effects of Local Market Concentration and International Competition on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Mexico By Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos; López-Calva, Luis-Felipe; Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar
  48. Spatial long memory By Robinson, Peter
  49. When nudges aren't enough: Incentives and habit formation in public transport usage By Christina Gravert; Linus Olsson Collentine
  50. Paying for Free Lunch: The Impact of CEP Universal Free Meals on Revenues, Spending, and Student Health By Michah W. Rothbart; Amy Ellen Schwartz; Emily Gutierrez
  51. Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations By Benzell, Seth G.; Collis, Avinash; Nicolaides, Christos
  52. Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity. The effects of tax policy By Thomas von Brasch; Ådne Cappelen; Håvard Hungnes; Terje Skjerpen
  53. Spatial simultaneous autoregressive models for compositional data: Application to land use By Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Nguyen, T.H.A; Chakir, Raja; Lungarska, Anna
  54. The geographical psychology of recent graduates in the Netherlands: Relating enviornmental factors and personality traits to location choice By Hooijen, Inge; Bijlsma, Ineke; Cörvers, Frank; Poulissen, Davey
  55. Regional features of the influence of value orientations and the level of education on demographic behavior By Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей); Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей); Medvedev, Ilya (Медведев, Илья); Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия)
  56. Electricity Demand Modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do Regional Differences Matter By Jeyhun Mikayilov; Fakhri Hasanov; Waheed Olagunju; Mohammad H. Al-Shehri
  57. Government ideology and international migration By Vincenzo Bove; Georgios Efthyvoulou; Harry Pickard
  58. Bubble on real estate: the role of altruism and fiscal policy By Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard; Thomas Seegmuller

  1. By: Jean Flemming
    Abstract: Even though workers in the UK spent just 1,000 pounds on commuting in 2017, the economic loss may be far higher because of the congestion externality arising from the way in which one worker's commute affects the commuting time of others. I provide empirical evidence that commuting time affects job acceptance, pointing to large indirect costs of congestion. To interpret the empirical facts and quantify the costs of congestion, I build a model featuring a frictional labor market within a metropolitan area. By endogenizing commuting congestion in a labor search model, the model connects labor market responses to urban policies. Workers evaluate job offers based on their productivity and commuting costs, taking congestion as given, but by accepting and commuting to distant jobs, affect other workers' labor market outcomes. Through this mechanism, equilibrium moving decisions, housing rent, and wages are tightly linked to congestion. Calibrating the model to the local labor market around London, I show that the effect of the congestion externality is to significantly decrease welfare and increase wage inequality. I quantify the effects of a congestion tax on labor market outcomes, and show that the welfare-maximizing tax has substantial negative effects on inequality, but comes at a cost of higher unemployment.
    Keywords: Job search; Wage distribution; Congestion externality; Commuting
    JEL: E24 J32 J62 R13 R41
    Date: 2020–03–27
  2. By: Elliot Anenberg; Daniel R. Ringo
    Abstract: Housing demand stimulus produces a multiplier effect by freeing up owners attempting to sell their current home, allowing them to re-enter the market as buyers and triggering a chain of further transactions. Exploiting a shock to first-time home buyer demand caused by the 2015 surprise cut in Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums, we find that homeowners buy their next home sooner when the probability of their current home selling increases. This effect is especially pronounced in cold housing markets, in which homes take a long time to sell. We build and calibrate a model of the joint buyer-seller search decision that explains these findings as a result of homeowners avoiding the cost of owning two homes simultaneously. Simulations of the model demonstrate that stimulus to home buying generates a substantial multiplier effect, particularly in cold housing markets.
    Keywords: Housing search; Housing stimulus; Multiplier effects; Joint buyer-seller
    Date: 2019–12–16
  3. By: Soeren Leth-Petersen (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Henrik Yde Andersen (Danmarks Nationalbank)
    Abstract: We examine whether unanticipated changes in home values drive spending and mortgage-based equity extraction. To do this we use longitudinal survey data with subjective information about current and expected future home values to calculate unanticipated home value changes. We link this information at the individual level to high quality administrative records containing information about mortgage borrowing as well as savings in various financial instruments. We find that the marginal propensity to increase mortgage debt is 3-5% of unanticipated home value gains. We find no adjustment to other components of the portfolio, and we find that mortgage extraction leads to an increase in spending. The effect is driven by young households with high loan-to-value ratios which is consistent with the effect being driven by collateral constraints. Further, we find that the effect is driven by home owners who actively take out a new mortgage. The price effect is magnified among FRM borrowers who have an incentive to refinance their loans to lock in a lower market rate. These results point to the importance of the mortgage market in transforming price increases into spending and suggest that monetary policy can play an important role in transforming housing wealth gains into spending by affecting interest rates on mortgage loans.
    Keywords: Housing wealth effects, Mortgage market, House price expectations, Analysis of survey and administrative data
    JEL: D12 D14 E21 E52
    Date: 2019–09–12
  4. By: Kajuth, Florian
    Abstract: This paper analyses the behaviour of prices and supply on the German housing market taking into account the interaction between prices and quantities. A novel price index for residential property prices covering the whole country going back to 1993 is used in a macroeconomic model to estimate key housing market elasticities for Germany. A decomposition suggests that the land price component of house prices is relatively elastic with respect to income and interest rates, while the construction price component responds to income and the level of construction activity. The decomposition also highlights countervailing house price effects of a supply increase: A dampening effect via land prices and a stimulating effect via construction prices.
    Keywords: Residential property prices,residential investment,housing market cycle
    JEL: R21 R31 E32
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo); Bessho, Shun-ichiro (University of Tokyo); Kawamura, Akira (Kanagawa University of Human Services); Noguchi, Haruko (Waseda University); Ushijima, Koichi (University of Tsukuba)
    Abstract: This study estimates teacher value-added (TVA) for language arts and mathematics test scores of students in public primary schools to investigate the empirical relationship between testscore TVA and observable traits and promotions of teachers. Our empirical strategy employs Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a) with school-year fixed effects as an additional control for potential sorting of students across schools. Using unique administrative panel data of students in public primary schools of a large municipality of Japan, we find TVA distribution to have variance comparable to ones observed in the U.S. schools. Using TVA estimates, we examine their associations with gender, teaching experience, age, and promotions of teachers. We find that these observable characteristics of teachers are statistically significantly associated with TVA estimates. Additionally, we find that TVA estimates are positively associated with teacher promotions.
    Keywords: education, teacher value-added, class size, teaching experience, promotion
    JEL: H75 I21 J24 J45
    Date: 2020–04
  6. By: Haapamäki, Taina; Kauhanen, Antti; Laakso, Seppo; Metsäranta, Heikki; Ojanperä, Marianna; Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko
    Abstract: Abstract The spatial concentration of production and population to urban areas is an important theme in societal discussion. The spatial concentration of economic activity is called agglomeration in urban economics. The economic impact of agglomeration is seen in the productivity of firms. Understanding agglomeration and its impacts is important from the point of view of transport, business and urbanization policies. This report lays out a theoretical framework that can be used to analyze the impacts of agglomeration and examine how the improvements of the transport system affects agglomeration. The recent empirical literature on the impact of the transport system on agglomeration is reviewed and the challenges of this literature are discussed. The focus is especially on how the impact of changes in the transport system on agglomeration can be analyzed in a reliable way. The main threats to reliable analysis are double counting of benefits and poor research designs leading to too large estimates of the elasticity between accessibility and productivity. The report provides recommendations on how the transport appraisal frameworks should be developed to capture agglomeration effects, and highlights the need for Finnish research on this subject.
    Keywords: Transport system, Agglomeration, Wider economic impacts
    JEL: R42 H43 H54
    Date: 2020–05–06
  7. By: Jeehee Han (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Amy Ellen Schwartz (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University); Brian Elbel (New York University)
    Abstract: We examine the causal link between proximity to fast food and the incidence of childhood obesity among low-income households in New York City. Using individual-level longitudinal data on students living in public housing linked to restaurant location data, we exploit the naturally occurring withindevelopment variation in distance to fast food restaurants to estimate the impact of proximity on obesity. Since the assignment of households to specific buildings is based upon availability at the time of assignment to public housing, the distance between student residence and retail outlets—including fast food restaurants, wait-service restaurants, supermarkets, and corner stores—is plausibly random. Our credibly causal estimates suggest that childhood obesity increases with proximity to fast food, with larger effects for younger children.
    Keywords: Urban Neighborhoods, Food Environment, Child Health and Obesity, Public Housing
    JEL: R38 I12 J13 L83
    Date: 2020–05
  8. By: Kocornik-Mina, Adriana; McDermott, Thomas K.J.; Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand
    Abstract: Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe’s urban areas, which we use to measure local economic activity. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are hit by large floods, these low elevation areas also sustain damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rapid urbanization and rising sea levels.
    Keywords: Urbanization; Flooding; Climate change; Urban recovery
    JEL: O18 Q54 R11 R58
    Date: 2020–04–01
  9. By: Iammarino, Simona; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael
    Abstract: Regional economic divergence has become a threat to economic progress, social cohesion and political stability in Europe. Market processes and policies that are supposed to spread prosperity and opportunity are no longer sufficiently effective. The evidence points to the existence of several different modes of regional economic performance in Europe, responding to different development challenges and opportunities. Both mainstream and heterodox theories have gaps in their ability to explain the existence of these different regional trajectories and the weakness of the convergence processes among them. Therefore, a different approach is required, one that strengthens Europe’s strongest regions but develops new approaches to promote opportunity in industrial declining and less-developed regions. There is ample new theory and evidence to support such an approach, which we have labelled ‘place-sensitive distributed development policy’.
    Keywords: Regions; inequality; economic divergence; place-sensitive development; European Union
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2019–03–01
  10. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: Regions and cities face unceasing pressures to adapt in response to processes of globalization, changes in industrial production, and new patterns of migration and trade. At the same time, the dominant development policies are proving less than capable of providing answers to these challenges. Strategies based on a mix of physical and human capital and technology have not succeeded in dealing with growing territorial inequality and its treacherous economic, social and political consequences. There is thus an urgent need to understand why territorial divergence occurs and why there is what seems to be a growing decline in the returns of public intervention targeting economic development. In the search for answers, scholars have turned to the examination of institutions. But despite progress in our grasp of how institutions affect development, crucial knowledge gaps remain. This paper reviews recent progress in our understanding of the role of institutions for development, unveils the most important gaps, and proposes a series of avenues to improve how a better understanding of how institutions shape regional and urban development can lead to more efficient development policies.
    Keywords: institutions; government quality; public policies; regions; cities
    JEL: R14 J01 N0
    Date: 2020–03–24
  11. By: Matt Dickson (Institute for Policy Research (IPR), University of Bath); Lindsey Macmilllan (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London)
    Abstract: Grammar schools are secondary schools that select pupils based on their performance on a test at age 11 - those pupils above a certain threshold attend state-funded grammar schools, while those below the threshold attend state-funded comprehensive or secondary modern schools depending on the area (with the other alternatives being religious or private schools). Inequalities exist in who attains places at grammar schools by socio-economic status, with more disadvantaged children far less likely to attend a grammar school that their more advantaged peers. This is true even when comparing those with similar levels of academic achievement. Numerous factors contribute to this inequality in access, many of which will be exacerbated during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This briefing note summarises the empirical evidence on socio-economic inequalities in who goes to grammar schools, the drivers behind these, and some implications, including the likely impact of the current school closures on inequality in access, if the usual selection procedure (the `11 plus' exam) continues to be used this year.
    Keywords: Inequality, Selective Schooling, Grammar schools.
    JEL: I20 I21 I24
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Henriette Ruhrmann (Technical University of Berlin); Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Faculty of Economics); Loet Leydesdorff (Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR), University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Employing a quantitative, data-driven tool - the Triple Helix Indicator - to microdata of firms in Germany, we develop an evidence base for innovation-policy strategies. We aim to answer the question which level of government (local, regional, national) might be most effective for strategic innovation policy-making based on smart specialization in Germany. The empirical results show that the country is decentralized to the extent that it cannot be considered a "national" innovation system. More than two-thirds of innovation-system synergy is generated at the lower levels of districts (NUTS3) and Governmental Regions (NUTS2). In high-tech and medium-tech manufacturing, former East and West Germany, as well as North and South Germany, can be considered separate sub-national innovation systems. These findings strengthen the case for region- and context-specific innovation policies. The results illustrate the value of the Triple Helix Indicator for systematic regional mapping and serve as evidence for policy-makers to expand RIS3 policy strategies to the regional and local level in Germany.
    Keywords: Innovation systems, Triple Helix, Germany, Redundancy, Synergy
    JEL: O30 R11 O38 O52
    Date: 2020–04–22
  13. By: Agostinelli, Francesco (University of Pennsylvania); Doepke, Matthias (Northwestern University); Sorrenti, Giuseppe (University of Amsterdam); Zilibotti, Fabrizio (Yale University)
    Abstract: As children reach adolescence, peer interactions become increasingly central to their development, whereas the direct influence of parents wanes. Nevertheless, parents may continue to exert leverage by shaping their children's peer groups. We study interactions of parenting style and peer effects in a model where children's skill accumulation depends on both parental inputs and peers, and where parents can affect the peer group by restricting who their children can interact with. We estimate the model and show that it can capture empirical patterns regarding the interaction of peer characteristics, parental behavior, and skill accumulation among US high school students. We use the estimated model for policy simulations. We find that interventions (e.g., busing) that move children to a more favorable neighborhood have large effects but lose impact when they are scaled up because parents' equilibrium responses push against successful integration with the new peer group.
    Keywords: skill acquisition, peer effects, parenting, parenting style, neighborhood effects
    JEL: I24 J13 J24 R20
    Date: 2020–04
  14. By: Cuñat, Vicente; Cvijanovic, Dragana; Yuan, Kathy
    Abstract: By considering banks as portfolios of assets in different locations, we study how real estate shocks are transmitted across bank’s business areas while controlling for local demand shocks and bank location–specific factors. Affected banks substantially alter their loan portfolios: we find evidence of real estate price declines affecting both real estate and non-real estate types of lending. Banks also roll over and fail to liquidate problematic loans, while accumulating more non-performing loans. These results provide evidence of internal contagion of real estate shocks within banks.
    Keywords: Banks; Real Estate; Contagion; Crisis; Zombie Lending
    JEL: G21 R30
    Date: 2018–09–01
  15. By: Michael Irlacher; Michael Koch
    Abstract: We use the most recent wave of the German Qualifications and Career Survey and reveal a substantial wage premium in a Mincer regression for workers performing their job from home. The premium persists within narrowly defined jobs and after controlling for workplace activities and accounts to more then 10%. In a next step, we provide evidence on substantial regional variation in the share of jobs that can be done from home across NUTS2 districts in Germany. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis might affect already poorer regions more heavily as a lower share of workers can work from home there. Hence, looking at regional disparities in terms of different types of occupations is central for policy makers in choosing the right economic policies to mitigate the consequences of the crisis.
    Keywords: working from home, COVID-19, regional disparities, home office, BIBB-BAuA
    JEL: J31 J22 J61 R10
    Date: 2020
  16. By: Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to show that areas with stronger social ties to two early COVID-19 “hotspots” (Westchester County, NY, in the U.S. and Lodi province in Italy) generally have more confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 30, 2020. These relationships hold after controlling for geographic distance to the hotspots as well as for the income and population density of the regions. These results suggest that data from online social networks may prove useful to epidemiologists and others hoping to forecast the spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19.
    Keywords: social connectedness, COVID-19, coronavirus, communicable disease
    JEL: C60 I10
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Fasani, Francesco (Queen Mary, University of London); Frattini, Tommaso (University of Milan); Minale, Luigi (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This article investigates the medium to long-term effects on refugee labour market outcomes of the temporary employment bans being imposed in many countries on recently arrived asylum seekers. Using a newly collected dataset covering almost 30 years of employment restrictions together with individual data for refugees entering European countries between 1985 and 2012, our empirical strategy exploits the geographical and temporal variation in employment bans generated by staggered introduction and removal coupled with frequent changes at the intensive margin. We find that exposure to a ban at arrival reduces refugee employment probability in post-ban years by 15%, an impact driven primarily by lower labour market participation. These effects are not mechanical, since we exclude refugees who may still be subject to employment restrictions, are non-linear in ban length, confirming that the very first months following arrival play a key role in shaping integration prospects, and last up to 10 years post arrival. We further demonstrate that the detrimental effects of employment bans are concentrated among less educated refugees, translate into lower occupational quality, and seem not to be driven by selective migration. Our causal estimates are robust to several identification tests accounting for the potential endogeneity of employment ban policies, including placebo analysis of non-refugee migrants and an instrumental variable strategy. To illustrate the costs of these employment restrictions, we estimate a EUR 37.6 billion output loss from the bans imposed on asylum seekers who arrived in Europe during the so-called 2015 refugee crisis.
    Keywords: asylum policies, economic assimilation, asylum seekers
    JEL: F22 J61 K37
    Date: 2020–04
  18. By: David Krisztián Nagy
    Abstract: I study how geography shaped city formation and aggregate development in the United States prior to the Civil War. To guide my analysis, I first present a conjecture that cities'farm hinterlands fostered both city development and aggregate growth: the hinterland hypothesis. The hinterland hypothesis has rich implications on how various elements of U.S. geography - railroads, changes in U.S. political borders, increasing U.S. population, and international trade - affected city formation and U.S. growth. To quantitatively evaluate the hinterland hypothesis and its implications, I assemble a novel historical dataset on population, trading routes and agricultural productivity at a high spatial resolution, and combine it with a dynamic quantitative model of economic geography. I find evidence for the hinterland hypothesis by showing that the model can quantitatively replicate the key patterns of U.S. urbanization and city formation. Finally, I conduct a series of counterfactuals in the model to quantify the effect of geography on cities and growth, guided by the implications of the hinterland hypothesis. Results indicate that railroads were responsible for 8.2% of urban population in 1860 and for 27% of real GDP growth between 1830 and 1860. The effect of international trade was similar in magnitude, while population growth slowed down urbanization and GDP growth. The effect of political border changes was small during the period.
    Keywords: quantitative economic geography, economic growth and development, city formation, transport infrastructure
    JEL: O14 O18 O51 R12 R13
    Date: 2020–02
  19. By: Stefanie Behncke
    Abstract: I analyse the effects of two macroprudential policy measures implemented in Switzerland: the activation of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. I use a difference-in-differences method to estimate the effects of these measures on risk indicators, such as their LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios and mortgage growth rates. I find that both the CCyB and the LTV cap led to a reduction in high LTV mortgages. The banks affected by the CCyB also reduced their mortgage growth rates. I do not find any evidence that these measures had unintended consequences on LTI risks or on non-mortgage credit growth.
    Keywords: Banks, countercyclical capital buffer, financial stability, loan-to-value ratio, macroprudential policy, mortgages
    JEL: E5 G21 G28
    Date: 2020
  20. By: Berthelon, Matias; Kruger, Diana; Lauer, Catalina; Tiberti, Luca; Zamora, Carlos
    Abstract: Ample empirical evidence has found that access to childcare for preschool children increases mothers’ labor force participation and employment. In this paper, we investigate whether increased childcare for primary school children improves the quality of jobs mothers find by estimating the causal effect of a school schedule reform in Chile. Combining plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in school schedules with a panel of individual mothers’ employment between 2002 and 2015, we estimated a fixed-effects model that controlled for unobserved heterogeneity. We found a positive effect of access to full-day schools on several measures of ’the quality of mothers’ jobs, which were correlated to working full-time. We also found small, positive effects on quality of fathers’ jobs. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the effect was the effect of the reform’s implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare on the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. We also found that less educated mothers benefited most from the reform. Thus, childcare can increase household welfare by improving parents’ jobs and can play a role in reducing inequality.
    Keywords: Employment quality,job quality,women’s labor force participation,women’s labor supply,full-day schooling,childcare,education reform,Chile
    JEL: H41 H52 I25 I28 J13 J16 J18 J22 O15
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Becker, Dominik; Wessling, Katarina (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, ROA / Education and occupational career)
    Abstract: Teachers represent a crucial dimension of social stratification in the school system. Their assessments of students matter by exerting short-term effects on students' motivation and achievement, but also by influencing students’ educational prospects. Research shows that teachers’ assessments are reasonably accurate. However, there is a residual component of inaccuracy emerging from individual-level factors (e.g., students’ social or immigrant origin) as well as from classroom and school composition. In the present contribution, we add to this literature by providing a dual-process explanation on how contextual conditions on several levels, i.e., classroom, school, neighborhood and institution simultaneously frame teachers' expectations of their students. We test our theoretical model by using data comprising information on teachers, students, parents, and contextual settings of German elementary schools. We exploit institutional variations that influence the extent to which teachers perceive their expectations as relevant (i.e., binding versus non-binding recommendations for secondary school tracks). Results show that teachers’ expectations are positively framed by a high share of students with immigrant background in the classroom. Yet, this effect is only valid for native students. Furthermore, we observe mutually reinforcing framing effects of the classroom’s and the neighborhood’s social composition on teachers' expectations. Finally, context influences are attenuated when teachers perceive their expectations as more relevant (i.e. track recommendations are binding).
    JEL: C33 I24 D81
    Date: 2020–04–15
  22. By: Wang, Hao; Fidrmuc, Jan; Luo, Qi
    Abstract: When investigating the relationship between inward FDI and rural-urban inequality, previous studies overlook the inter-regional interactions. Building on the literature that highlights the significant role of rural-urban migration in inequality, this article investigates spatial spillover effect of inward FDI on the rural-urban wage inequality by utilizing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) both in the short run and long run. In particular, we carefully consider the heterogeneity of inward FDI and categorize it with respect to entry modes and sectoral distribution. On the basis of a panel dataset covering 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016, our results show that overall the inward FDI should not be blamed for the exacerbation of rural-urban wage inequality. We do not find significant relationship between inward FDI in secondary and tertiary sector while the FDI in primary sector has a slight negative effect. When we separate the FDI according to entry modes, we find that WFE is shown to have a negative effect on the rural-urban wage inequality and this effect is more pronounced in the long run when we conduct a period average estimation. This change also similarly applies to the equity joint ventures.
    Keywords: Spatial spillovers,foreign direct investment,rural-urban wage inequality,SDM
    JEL: C21 F21 O19
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Michael C. Nwogugu
    Abstract: This article introduces new models of disintermediation of the real estate broker by the buyer or the seller. The decision to retain a real estate broker is critical in the property purchase/sale process. The existing literature does not contain analysis of: 1) information asymmetry, 2) the conditions under which it will be optimal to disintermediate the broker, 3) social capital and reputation, 4) the impact of different types of real estate brokerage contracts. The article shows that dis-intermediation of the real estate broker by the seller or buyer may be optimal in certain conditions.
    Date: 2020–05
  24. By: Rolf Bergs
    Abstract: Power law distributions characterise several natural and social phenomena. The Zipf law for cities is one of those. The study views the question of whether that global regularity is independent of different spatial distributions of cities. For that purpose, a typical Zipfian rank-size distribution of cities is generated with random numbers. This distribution is then cast into different settings of spatial coordinates. For the estimation, the variables rank and size are supplemented by spatial spillover effects in a standard spatial econometric approach. Results suggest that distance and contiguity effects matter. This finding is further corroborated by three country analyses.
    Date: 2020–05
  25. By: Knetsch, Thomas A.
    Abstract: The compilation of commercial property price indices is a big challenge. In Germany, substantive data gaps prevent the calculation of official figures by the national statistical authority. By contrast, policymakers urge for timely, reliable and comprehensive data. In this paper, proposals are made as to how to aggregate and classify individual price information in order to best serve the intended policy uses. Experimental price indices according to various definitions of commercial real estate are constructed on the basis of two components: (i) the appraisals for transaction prices of houses, apartments, multi-family dwellings, office buildings and retail space in 127 German towns and cities provided by bulwiengesa, a real estate consulting company; and (ii) corresponding data on floor space which make it possible to derive coherent weighting schemes. The overall price developments revealed by the various indices are rather similar in terms of central time series characteristics, while differences in detail can be explained by their specific compositions. Analysts may find these indices helpful to better understand price developments in German commercial real estate markets. Statisticians may acquire from this exercise further knowledge about measurement practices, as official statistics are encouraged to take steps towards establishing thorough reporting on commercial real estate markets.
    Keywords: Commercial property price indices,private data,stock weighting,policy use
    JEL: C43 E31 R33
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Sumedha Gupta; Thuy D. Nguyen; Felipe Lozano Rojas; Shyam Raman; Byungkyu Lee; Ana Bento; Kosali I. Simon; Coady Wing
    Abstract: By early April 2020, the U.S. experienced more confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths than any other country. Governments, businesses, and individuals have made extraordinary changes in how they function in an effort to limit the spread of the virus. In this paper, we analyze near-real-time data related to policy responses, information shocks, and mobility patterns that serve as proxies for social distancing. We also conduct a preliminary study of population health outcomes that capture the magnitude and severity of the epidemic, and how. We make two main contributions toward understanding the effects of policies related to the epidemic. First, we develop a typology to organize and group heterogeneous state and local government responses to the epidemic, and assess how those responses have affected social distancing measures in the early stages of the epidemic. Although social distancing has emerged as a major policy goal, very little is known about which policy approaches are effective at producing social distance, or about the importance of social changes relative to nationwide awareness of the epidemic or to state and local information on the progression of the epidemic. We harness several sources of commercial “smart-device” data on mobility and illness patterns and estimate event study regressions to disentangle responses to information from responses to mandates. Second, we use data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality to assess the degree to which governments’ adoption of policies appear to correlate with anticipated growth in the epidemic at a local level. We estimate simple event study models of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and we also discuss some ways that difference-in-difference and event study models may be interpreted through the lens of a simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) theoretical model. Using multiple proxy outcome measures, we find large declines in mobility in all states since the start of the epidemic. Even states that did not implement major policy changes have experienced large mobility declines, and other states experienced large changes before the policy actions. This suggests that a substantial portion of the response to the epidemic was not induced by specific government policies. However, our event study analysis implies that policy changes and informational events have also led to independent decreases in mobility. We find that five days after a state or county policy change or informational event, there are mobility reductions that are mostly in the range of one to below five percent, and mostly in the range of 2-8% for 20 days out, with county policies associated with larger effect sizes than state policies. Our analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths suggest that state government action often immediately precedes substantial increases in caseloads and deaths. This is logical given efforts to model the direction of the epidemic, but it suggests methodological challenges in estimating the effects of policy changes on the COVID-19 related health outcomes. Overall, our results suggest that state and local government policy and informational events induced changes in mobility on top of what appears to be a much larger response across all states to the prevailing knowledge and events at both national and international levels. These results shed light on the likely consequences of proposals to lift various government mandates and the role of waning public support for social distancing, which could lead to a decline in the amount of voluntary reductions in mobility.
    JEL: I0
    Date: 2020–04
  27. By: Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Ajzenman, Nicolás; Guriev, Sergei
    Abstract: Does exposure to mass migration affect economic behavior, attitudes and beliefs of natives in transit countries? In order to answer this question, we use a unique locality-level panel from the 2010 and 2016 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey and data on the main land routes taken by migrants in 18 European countries during the refugee crisis in 2015. To capture the exogenous variation in natives’ exposure to transit migration, we construct an instrument that is based on the distance of each locality to the optimal routes that minimize travelling time between the main origin and destination cities. We first show that the entrepreneurial activity of natives falls considerably in localities that are more exposed to mass transit migration, compared to those located further away. We then explore the mechanisms and find that our results are likely to be explained by a decrease in the willingness to take risks as well as in the confidence in institutions. We also document an increase in the anti-migrant sentiment while attitudes towards other minorities remained unchanged. We rule out the possibility of out-migration of natives or of trade-related shocks (potentially confounded with the mass-transit migration) affecting our results. Using locality-level luminosity data, we also rule out any effect driven by changes in economic activity. Finally, we find no statistically significant effects on other labor market outcomes, such as unemployment or labor force participation.
    Date: 2020–04–21
  28. By: Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We investigate whether differences in management explain variation in productivity and whether different labor market policies can impact the allocation of managerial effectiveness. Using data on the universe of students and school personnel in Chile, we establish three main findings. First, there is substantial variation in principals' ability to improve students' learning. Second, effective principals are recognized by the school community, decrease teachers' turnover, and obtain higher wages, especially in private schools. Third, despite relatively rigid wages, public schools can attract better principals by improving personnel selection.
    Keywords: Managers; School principals; Chile
    JEL: I25 L24
    Date: 2020–04
  29. By: Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Cassandra Benson; Samuel R. Bondurant
    Abstract: Nearly 4 in 10 children report experiencing maltreatment by adulthood. Early detection mitigates maltreatment’s negative effects. Yet factors that drive early detection remain understudied. We examine one possible source of early detection: educators in school settings. Administrative data on reports of child maltreatment across the U.S. over a 14-year period allows us to use two different regression discontinuity methods, one based on school-entry laws and one on school calendars. Both methods show education professionals are reporting cases that would have been missed otherwise. These findings suggest that improved training and support of educators may improve society's ability to help children and families.
    JEL: I29 I31 J12
    Date: 2020–04
  30. By: Mohana Mondal (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: In this paper, we revisit a common issue with popular indices used for measuring residential sorting, that is, the extent to which a sub-group of the population is spatially distributed (sorted or segregated) differently from the remainder of the population. Specifically, we show that three common measures of residential sorting (namely, the Index of Segregation, the Index of Isolation and the Entropy Index of Segregation) are affected by group size, that is, the expected values of the indices are positive rather than zero under random sorting, and the size of this positive bias is related to group size. This is an important issue because it is common to compare sorting indices across groups of rather different sizes, both cross-sectionally and over time. Using New Zealand data, we demonstrate group-size impact on bias in measures of residential sorting by means of four methods: (1) plotting the relationship between group size and each residential sorting measure; (2) randomly allocating individuals across the area units, calculating the resulting residential sorting measures, and regressing these on group size; (3) showing that normalised/systematic indices of sorting are also related to group size; and (4) calculating the measurement bias for each index and plotting them against group size. Our empirical illustration uses microdata on the self-reported ethnicity of individuals (with multiple responses possible) from the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings (1991-2013) for the Auckland region, selected due to its high ethnic diversity. Our results demonstrate that the Entropy Index of Systematic Segregation measure of residential sorting is the measure that is the least affected by group size variation. As a result, we strongly recommend using this index of sorting as a preferred measure.
    Keywords: residential sorting; segregation; group-size bias; entropy index
    JEL: C18 J19 Z13 R23
    Date: 2018–08–15
  31. By: Yasenov, Vasil
    Abstract: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many states have adopted stay-at-home orders, rendering a large segment of the workforce unable to continue doing their jobs. These policies have distributional consequences, as workers in some occupations may be better able to continue their work from home. I identify the segments of the U.S. workforce that can plausibly work from home by linking occupation data from O*NET to the American Community Survey. I find that lower-wage workers are up to three times less likely to be able to work from home than higher-wage workers. Those with lower levels of education, younger adults, ethnic minorities, and immigrants are also concentrated in occupations that are less likely to be performed from home.
    Date: 2020–04–18
  32. By: Henn, Karola; Islam, Chris-Gabriel; Schwind, Patrick; Wieland, Elisabeth
    Abstract: In Germany, package holidays are an important driver of consumer prices. Several challenges arise when measuring the price development of these bundled travel and accommodation services, such as the quality of accommodation and the timing of booking. Statistical practices are currently based on sampling offer prices. By using actual bookings, this paper analyses the possibilities and challenges in compiling a price index out of transaction data for flight package holidays. Our dataset comprises both online bookings and bookings made via stationary travel agencies on a daily basis. The large sample size allows for a disaggregation by individual holiday destination. Several methodological issues such as product definition, the grouping of unstructured text information, and weighting are addressed. Moreover, various index aggregation methods are analysed, which include hedonic regressions, stratification, and also a multilateral index method. Applied to six major holiday destinations for German travellers, all transaction-based methods under consideration exhibit similar price dynamics, pointing to robust results for destinationbased price indicators for package holidays.
    Keywords: Consumer prices,transaction data,hedonic regressions,quality adjustment,multilateral index number methods
    JEL: C14 C43 E31
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Honey-Roses, Jordi; Anguelovski, Isabelle; Bohigas, Josep; Chireh, Vincent; Daher, Carolyn; Konijnendijk, Cecil; Litt, Jill; Mawani, Vrushti; McCall, Mike; Orellana, Arturo
    Abstract: Restrictions on the use of public space and social distancing have been key policy measures to reduce the transmission of SAR-CoV-2 and protect public health. At the time of writing, one half of the world’s population has been asked to stay home and avoid many public places. What will be the long term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on public space once the restrictions have been lifted? The depth and extent of transformation is unclear, especially as it relates to the future design, use and perceptions of public space. This article aims to highlight emerging questions at the interface of COVID-19 and city design. It is possible that the COVID-19 crisis may fundamentally change our relationship with public space. In the ensuing months and years, it will be critical to study and measure these changes in order to inform urban planning and design in a post-COVID-19 world.
    Date: 2020–04–21
  34. By: Ericsson, Sanna (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the interaction between cultural norms and neighbourhood characteristics. I estimate the effect of cultural gender norms on the gender gap in math, and explore whether this effect is mitigated by municipality gender equality. I use high-quality Swedish administrative data on the results of national standardised math tests. To separate the effect of cultural gender norms from formal institutions, I estimate the effect of mothers' source-country gender norms on the gender gap in math for second-generation immigrants. By contrasting the outcomes of opposite-sex siblings, I show that the sibling gender gap in math increases with mothers' adherence to traditional gender norms; such that girls with more gender-traditional mothers perform worse relative to their brothers. To investigate whether the cultural gender norm effect can be mitigated by municipality gender equality, I exploit a refugee placement policy to obtain random variation in municipality characteristics. I show that municipality gender equality can almost completely mitigate the negative cultural norm effect. Taken together, my results imply that while cultural gender norms play an important role for the gender gap in math, they are not immune to the effects of neighbourhood exposure.
    Keywords: cultural gender norms; math gender gap; epidemiological approach; refugee placement policy; sibling fixed effects
    JEL: I21 I24 J15 J16 Z13
    Date: 2020–04–15
  35. By: Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr
    Abstract: Immigrants account for about a quarter of US invention and entrepreneurship despite a policy environment that is not well suited for these purposes. This chapter reviews the US immigration policy environment that governs how skilled migrants move to America for employment-based purposes. We discuss points of strain in the current system and potential policy reforms that would likely increase the rate of innovation and the number of startups due to immigrants in the country. Key areas include adjustments to the allocation of permanent residency visas, adjustments to the H-1B visa program, and the creation of an immigrant startup visa.
    JEL: F22 F23 J15 J44 J61 L26 M13 O31 O32 O33
    Date: 2020–04
  36. By: Avi Goldfarb; Catherine Tucker
    Abstract: This paper seeks to answer the simple question of what category of retail outlets generates the most physical interactions in the regular course of life. In this way, we aim to bring a marketing perspective to discussions about which businesses may be most risky from the standpoint of spreading contagious disease. We use detailed data from people's mobile devices prior to the implementation of social distancing measures in the United States. With this data, we examine a number of potential indicators of risk of contagion: The absolute number of visits and visitors, how many of the visits are generated by the same people, the median average distance traveled by the visitor to the retailer, and the number of customers from Canada and Mexico. We find that retailers with a single outlet tend to attract relatively few visitors, fewer one-off visitors, and have fewer international customers. For retailers that have multiple stores the patterns are non-linear. Retailers that have such a large number of stores that they are ubiquitous, tend to exhibit fewer visits and visitors and attract customers from a smaller distance. However, retailers that have a large enough footprint to be well known, but not large enough to be ubiquitous tend to attract a large number of visitors who make one-off visits, travel a long distance, and are disproportionately international.
    JEL: M38
    Date: 2020–04
  37. By: Frederik Priem; Philip Stessens; Frank Canters
    Abstract: The historically rooted suburbanization of Flanders and the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) in Belgium has resulted in severe urban sprawl, traffic congestion, natural land degradation and many related problems. Recent policy proposals put forward by the two regions aim for more compact urban development in well-serviced areas. Yet, it is unclear how these proposed policies may impact residential dynamics over the coming decades. To address this issue, we developed a Residential Microsimulation (RM) framework that spatially refines coarse-scale demographic projections at the district level to the level of census tracts. The validation of simulated changes from 2001 to 2011 reveals that the proposed framework succeeds in modelling historic trends and clearly outperforms a random model. To support simulation from 2011 to 2040, two alternative urban development scenarios are defined. The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario essentially represents a continuation of urban sprawl development, whereas the Sustainable Development (SUS) scenario strives for higher-density development around strategic well-serviced nodes in line with proposed policies. This study demonstrates how residential microsimulation supported by scenario analysis can play a constructive role in urban policy design and evaluation.
    Keywords: Compact development; Discrete choice modelling; Flanders; Residential location choice; Scenario analysis; Urban sprawl
    Date: 2020–03
  38. By: Hsu, Wen-Tai (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Lu, Yi (Tsinghua University); Luo, Xuan (INSEAD); Zhu, Lianming (Osaka University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial ag-glomeration. Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration neg-atively. As FDI brings technological spillovers and various agglomeration benefits, other forces must be at work to drive our empirical finding. We propose a simple theory that FDI may discourage industrial agglomeration due to fiercer competition pressure. We find various evidence on this competition mechanism. We also examine an alternative theory based on spatial political competition, but find no evidence sup-porting it. On industrial growth, we find that FDI deregulation is conducive, but the dispersion induced by FDI deregulation reduces the positive effect of FDI on growth rate by 16 to 19%.
    Keywords: FDI; deregulation; industrial agglomeration; competition; industrial growth; WTO; China
    Date: 2020–04–01
  39. By: Sjöholm, Fredrik (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: The effect of minimum wages on employment is a matter of debate, and the existing empirical literature contains mixed results. One reason for this is the methodological difficulties involved where changes in minimum wages are endogenous to other important economic changes. To overcome this problem, we examine exogenous changes to local minimum wages in Indonesia between 1989 and 1994. Our natural experiment results from a national policy change: from minimum wages being determined by local guidelines and criteria to minimum wages being harmonized and set according to nationwide criteria. We examine how these changes in minimum wages affect employment, considering the effect both on employment within plants and on exit of plants. Our results show no evidence of an effect of minimum wages on employment in Indonesian plants. One explanation found in the data is that higher minimum wages force plants to increase productivity, which in turn enables them to retain their labor force, despite higher wage costs.
    Keywords: Minimum wages; Employment; Plants; Indonesia
    JEL: J21 J23 J38
    Date: 2020–04–07
  40. By: Nadja Stroh-Maraun (Paderborn University)
    Abstract: There are a number of school choice problems in which students are heterogeneous according to the number of seats they occupy at the school they are assigned to. We propose a weighted school choice problem by assigning each student a so-called weight and extend the top trading cycles algorithm to fit to this extension. We call the new mechanism the weighted TTC and show that it is strategy-proof and results in a Pareto efficient matching. Therefore, the TTC is robust towards the introduction of weights. Nevertheless, it is more complex to guarantee each student a seat at a school, as the extension introduces a trade-off between weights and priorities.
    Keywords: Matching, School Choice, College Admission Problems, Top Trading Cycles, Pareto Efficiency, Strategy-Proofness
    JEL: C78 D47
    Date: 2020–05
  41. By: Hosaena Ghebru; Mulubrhan Amare; George Mavrotas; Adebayo Ogunniyi
    Abstract: The paper examines the role of land access in youth migration and employment decisions using a two wave panel data set from the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Nigeria. Overall, the findings show that the size of expected land inheritance is significantly and negatively associated with long distance migration and migration to urban areas, while a similar impact is negligible when a broader definition of migration is adopted and when migration is deemed as temporary. A more disaggregated analysis by considering individual characteristics of the youth shows that results are more elastic for older youth and those that are less educated, while we find no difference when comparisons are made by gender. Similar analysis on the influence of land access on youth employment choices shows strong evidence that the larger the size of the expected land inheritance the lower the likelihood of the youth being involved in non-agricultural activities and a higher chance of staying in agriculture or the dual sector. The results further reveal that youth in areas with a high level of agricultural commercialization and modernization seem to be more responsive to land access considerations in making migration and employment decisions than are youth residing in less commercialized areas. Finally, the results from the differential analysis suggest that rural-to-urban migration and the likelihood of youth involvement in the dual economy is more responsive to the size of the expected land inheritance for less educated youth as compared to more educated ones.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–27
  42. By: Breda, Thomas (Paris School of Economics); Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics); Monnet, Marion (Paris School of Economics); Van Effenterre, Clémentine (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: This paper, based on a large-scale field experiment, tests whether a one-hour exposure to external female role models with a background in science affects students' perceptions and choice of field of study. Using a random assignment of classroom interventions carried out by 56 female scientists among 20,000 high school students in the Paris Region, we provide the first evidence of the positive impact of external female role models on student enrollment in STEM fields. We show that the interventions increased the share of Grade 12 girls enrolling in selective (male-dominated) STEM programs in higher education, from 11 to 14.5 percent. These effects are driven by high-achieving girls in mathematics. We find limited effects on boys' educational choices in Grade 12, and no effect for students in Grade 10. Evidence from survey data shows that the program raised students' interest in science-related careers and slightly improved their math self-concept. It sharply reduced the prevalence of stereotypes associated with jobs in science and gender differences in abilities, but it made the underrepresentation of women in science more salient. Using machine learning methods, we leverage the diversity of role model profiles to document substantial heterogeneity in the effectiveness of role models and shed light on the channels through which they can influence female students' choice of study. Results suggest that emphasis on the gender theme is less important to the effectiveness of this type of intervention than the ability of role models to convey a positive and more inclusive image of STEM careers.
    Keywords: role models, gender gap, STEM, stereotypes, choice of studies
    JEL: C93 I24 J16
    Date: 2020–04
  43. By: Ahmed, Ali; Hammarstedt, Mats; Karlsson, Karl
    Abstract: We present results from a field experiment in which fictitious parents to children with certain types of disabilities, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), make inquires to Swedish schools about admission for their children to the compulsory preschool class. Our results reveal that Swedish schools discriminated against children with these disabilities and that discrimination is most prevalent in private schools. Private schools discriminated against boys with ADHD and T1DM and against girls with ADHD. Furthermore, public schools discriminated against girls with ADHD. One potential effect of our results is that children with disabilities are referred to less attractive schools than children with no such medical conditions. These results may have implications for the possibilities for individuals with ADHD and T1DM to succeed in the labor market in the long run.
    Keywords: Schools,Disabilities,Discrimination
    JEL: I24 J14 J71
    Date: 2020
  44. By: Jeremy van Dijk; Mehdi Farsi; Sylvain Weber
    Abstract: This paper experimentally investigates the existence of behavioural deviations from the oft-assumed rationality in private transport decisions, avoiding the selection-biases in revealed data. Through a choice experiment answered by 995 Swiss respondents, we explore the linkages between long- and medium-term travel investment decisions, and the choice of transport mode. We test the existence of commitment device usage in car and public transport pass purchases, and the sunk cost fallacy, as well as the impact of electric vehicles on mode choice. We find little evidence to support the existence of commitment devices, and no sunk cost fallacy. We further show that electric vehicle owners are equally likely to commute in their car, however use a greater mix of transport modes for leisure and long-distance trips. Our results support the importance of marginal travel costs in transport policy, as well as demonstrate the wide impact of rising EV consumption.
    Keywords: Transport, Behaviour, Choice experiment, Commitment, Sunk cost, Electric vehicles, Energy technology adoption, Environmental policy.
    Date: 2020–04
  45. By: Jian Chu; Raymond Fisman; Songtao Tan; Yongxiang Wang
    Abstract: Audits are a standard mechanism for reducing corruption in government investments. The quality of audits themselves, however, may be affected by relationships between auditor and target. We study whether provincial chief auditors in China show greater leniency in evaluating prefecture governments in their hometowns. In city-fixed-effect specifications – in which the role of shared background is identified from auditor turnover – we show that hometown auditors find 38 percent less in questionable monies. This hometown effect is similar throughout the auditor’s tenure, and is diminished for audits ordered by the provincial Organizations Department as a result of the departure of top city officials. We argue that our findings are most readily explained by leniency toward local officials rather than an endogenous response to concerns of better enforcement by hometown auditors. We complement these city-level findings with firm-level analyses of earnings manipulation by state-owned enterprises via real activity manipulation (a standard measure from the accounting literature), which we show is higher under hometown auditors.
    JEL: D73 G3 H83 M42
    Date: 2020–04
  46. By: Polugodina, Maria; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the economic and political effects of the breakup of East Prussia into what is today Poland, Russia and Lithuania. We explore the dissolution of imperial regions into the boundaries of modern states, adding new insights to the research on the imperial legacies. We expect that German imperial legacies in the form of advanced economic institutions, and specifically East Prussian legacies of nationalistic and conservative political preferences, persist in the territories of former East Prussia in Poland, Russia and Lithuania compared to neighboring regions in their respective countries. We find no pattern of persistence in former East Prussian territories of contemporary Poland, whereas East Prussian persistence appears to be robust in Lithuania. We find strong evidence for the comparative persistence of political preferences in the Kaliningrad region, whereas we observe no economic spillovers. Drawing evidence from West German electoral data in the aftermath of World War II, we find that the presence of East Prussian refugees is conducive to conservative and nationalist support in the FRG. Hence, the East Prussian legacy relates primarily to the persistence of political preferences and migrating agents.
    Keywords: institutions,political economy,political preferences,migration,East Prussia,West Germany
    JEL: F14 N74 O52 P51
    Date: 2020
  47. By: Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos (World Bank); López-Calva, Luis-Felipe (World Bank); Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar (University of California, Davis)
    Abstract: Although market concentration is one of the main impediments to productivity growth globally, data constraints have limited its analysis to developed countries or cross-country studies based on definitions of market concentration across nations and industries. This paper takes advantage of a database that is unusual by developing-country standards by means of leveraging the richness of five rounds of the Mexican Manufacturing Census between 1994 and 2014. The data allow estimation of the effects of local industry concentration on productivity. The main results show that a decline by 10 points in the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (on a 0-100 scale), a measure of market concentration, explains an increase by 1 percent in the total factor productivity of revenue. Local industry concentration also has heterogeneous effects on productivity across industries, while its impact on productivity varies by level of exposure to international markets. Results show that the effect of greater exposure to trade offsets and, in most cases, reverses the negative effects of local concentration on productivity. These results are robust to specifications based on the estimation of firm productivity using the panels of establishment data from the 2009 and 2014 rounds of the economic census, to controlling for a proxy of markups, and to using alternative indicators of local industry concentration.
    Keywords: productivity, market concentration, instrumental variables
    JEL: C26 D24 D4 F12 L1
    Date: 2020–04
  48. By: Robinson, Peter
    Abstract: We discuss developments and future prospects for statistical modeling and inference for spatial data that have long memory. While a number of contributons have been made, the literature is relatively small and scattered, compared to the literatures on long memory time series on the one hand, and spatial data with short memory on the other. Thus, over several topics, our discussions frequently begin by surveying relevant work in these areas that might be extended in a long memory spatial setting.
    Keywords: spatial data; long memory
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2019–11–12
  49. By: Christina Gravert (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Linus Olsson Collentine (University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: In three large-scale field experiments with over 32,000 individuals, we investigate whether public transport uptake can be in uenced by behavioral interventions and by economic incentives. Despite their effectiveness in other domains, we find a tightly estimated zero for social norms and implementation intentions on ridership. Doubling the trial period from two to four weeks significantly increases uptake and long-term usage. This increase is sustained for months after removing the incentive. The effect is mainly driven by initial low users, which is evidence for habit formation. While there is scope for long-term behavior change, nudges might not be the right approach.
    Keywords: transport, nudging, field experiment, habit formation
    JEL: C93 D04 D91 L91
    Date: 2019–12–06
  50. By: Michah W. Rothbart (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Amy Ellen Schwartz (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University); Emily Gutierrez (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University)
    Abstract: The Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 allows school districts to provide free meals to all students if more than 40 percent of students are individually eligible for free or reduced-price lunch. While emerging evidence documents positive effects on student behavior and academics (Gordon and Ruffini, 2019; Schwartz and Rothbart, 2020), critics worry that Universal Free Meals (UFM) has unintended consequences, including exacerbating student obesity and adding financial burden onto school districts. We use school and district level data from New York State (NYS) and a difference-in-differences design to test whether concerns over negative effects for district finances (both revenues and expenditures) and student weight are justified. We exploit the staggered adoption of CEP across NYS school districts, and explore differences between metro, town, and rural districts. We delve into potential mechanisms, such as lunch and breakfast participation, and use a non-parametric event study model to assess pre-adoption trends and dosage effects. We find that, while local food service revenues decline, as expected, Federal dollars more than compensate through increased reimbursement revenues. Districts increase total food expenditures after CEP adoption (consistent with serving more meals) but spend less per meal. Indeed, while some worry that expanding free meals will crowd out education spending, we find CEP has no effect on instructional expenditures. Furthermore, while CEP increases participation in school lunch and breakfast, there is no deleterious effect on obesity, but, instead, some evidence of decreases in obesity in secondary grades. Rural districts experience larger impacts on revenues, expenditures, and student obesity than both metro and town districts, suggesting rural locations might be the most responsive to CEP. Unlike other districts, however, rural districts experience a food service funding gap from the CEP.
    Keywords: School Food, Childhood Obesity, Free Lunch, School Finance
    JEL: I24 I38 H52
    Date: 2020–04
  51. By: Benzell, Seth G.; Collis, Avinash; Nicolaides, Christos (University of Cyprus)
    Abstract: To prevent the spread of COVID-19, some types of stores and gathering places have been shut down while others remain open. The decision to shut down one type of location and leave another open constitutes a judgement about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using location data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and government statistics, we measure the relative transmission risk benefit and social cost of closing 30 different location categories in the US. Our categories include types of shops, schools, entertainments, and public spaces. We rank categories by those which should face stricter regulation via dominance across eight dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that from February to March, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures imply should be closed first. We hope this analysis will help policymakers decide how to reopen their economies.
    Date: 2020–04–18
  52. By: Thomas von Brasch; Ådne Cappelen; Håvard Hungnes; Terje Skjerpen (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We study the role of R&D spillovers when modelling total factor productivity (TFP) by industry. Using Norwegian industry level data, we find that for many industries there are significant spillovers from both domestic sources and from technological change at the international frontier. International spillovers contributed with 38 per cent to the total growth in TFP from 1982 to 2018 while domestic channels contributed with 44 per cent. The remaining 18 per cent is due to interaction effects. We include these channels into a large-scale econometric model of the Norwegian economy to study how R&D policies can promote economic growth. We find that current R&D policies in the form of generous tax deductions have increased growth in productivity and income in the Norwegian economy. The simulation results lend some support to the view that there are fiscal policy instruments that may have very large multipliers, even in the case of a fully financed policy change.
    Keywords: R&D spillovers; total factor productivity; innovation policies
    JEL: C32 C51 D24 E17 O32
    Date: 2020–04
  53. By: Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Nguyen, T.H.A; Chakir, Raja; Lungarska, Anna
    Abstract: Econometric land use models study determinants of land-use-shares of different classes: ``agriculture'', ``forest'', ``urban'' and ``other'' for example. Land-use-shares have a compositional nature as well as an important spatial dimension. We compare two compositional regression models with a spatial autoregressive nature in the framework of land use. We study the impact of the choice of coordinate space. We discuss parameters interpretation taking into account the non linear structure as well as the spatial dimension. We compute and interpret the semi-elasticities of the shares with respect to the explanatory variables and the spatial impact summary measures.
    Keywords: compositional regression model; marginal effects; simplicial derivative; elasticity; semi-elasticity.
    JEL: C10 C39 C46 C65 M31 Q15
    Date: 2020–05
  54. By: Hooijen, Inge (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, RS: SBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region, RS: FdR Institute ITEM); Poulissen, Davey (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Training and employment)
    Abstract: There is ample evidence from different research disciplines that location factors such as employment opportunities or the availability of amenities and facilities are a powerful predictor of settlement behaviour. Recent research suggests that citizens’ mean personality traits could be an additional predictor of where young people settle. We therefore explore 1) the extent to which recent graduates in the Netherlands are geographically clustered with respect to five different personality traits, 2) whether the geographical clustering of graduates is intensified as they grow older, 3) how regional environmental characteristics are related to personality traits, and 4) the extent to which personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Our results reveal a distinct geographical clustering of personality traits among the different regions in the Netherlands. We also show that this geographical clustering becomes more blurred as graduates age. The results furthermore show robust associations between personality traits and several environmental characteristics with respect to demographic, economic, health, political, sociocultural, crime, and religious outcomes. In addition, we show that personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Economic factors seem to have a larger impact in determining location choices than personality traits.
    JEL: J61 R23 D91
    Date: 2020–02–17
  55. By: Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Medvedev, Ilya (Медведев, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The object of the study is the dependence of demographic behavior and value orientations on educational status. The role of educational status in the mechanisms of the influence of value orientations and individual value attitudes on the demographic behavior of the population of Russia and in certain foreign countries is revealed. The paper presents the results of an analysis of the influence of the educational factor on individual values obtained on the microdata of the World Values Survey (VOC).
    Keywords: demography, gender, age, value orientations, educational status, level of education
    Date: 2020–03
  56. By: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Fakhri Hasanov; Waheed Olagunju; Mohammad H. Al-Shehri (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Energy is a pervasive input to all business and recreational activities. As such, total energy demand is an important indicator that helps explain the pattern of economic development within a country. Identifying and understanding the key determinants of electricity demand is therefore important for the economic prosperity of a country, since the availability of reliable electricity directly affects the prospects of economic development. With mega projects already in the works in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Vision 2030’s National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP 2019) being implemented, understanding the Kingdom’s existing and projected patterns of electricity demand is arguably more important now than ever before.
    Keywords: Electricity Demand, Economic Modelling, Energy Demand, Saudi Vision 2030
    Date: 2020–04–30
  57. By: Vincenzo Bove (Department of Politics and International Studies and CAGE (Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy), University of Warwick,); Georgios Efthyvoulou (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK); Harry Pickard (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)
    Abstract: We provide the first empirical evidence that differences in government ideology play an important role in the choice of cross-border migration destinations. In absence of first-hand experience, immigrants rely on information about the political landscape of the origin and host countries to form expectations about the context of reception in the host society. We use data on bilateral migration and government ideology for 36 OECD countries between 1990 and 2016. Our analysis shows that bilateral migration flows are higher when the government at the destination is more left-wing than the government at the origin, especially when we consider proximate countries.
    Keywords: international migration; migration choice; government ideology; OECD countries
    JEL: J15 D72 F22
    Date: 2020–05
  58. By: Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Thomas Seegmuller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper, we are interested in the interplay between real estate bubble, aggregate capital accumulation and taxation in an overlapping generations economy with altruistic households. We consider a three-period overlapping generations model with three key elements: altruism, portfolio choice, and financial market imperfections. Households realise different investment decisions in terms of asset at different periods of life, face a binding borrowing constraint and leave bequests to their children. We show that altruism plays a key role on the existence of a productive real estate bubble, i.e. a bubble in real estate raising physical capital stock and aggregate output. The key mechanism relies on the fact that a real estate bubble raises income of retired households. Because of higher bequests, there children are able to invest more in productive capital. Introducing fiscal policy, we show that raising real estate taxation dampens capital accumulation.
    Keywords: altruism,bubble,credit,overlapping generations,real estate
    Date: 2019–09

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