nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒04
sixty-four papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Regional Determinants of Housing Prices in the Czech Republic By Roman Kalabiska; Michal Hlavacek
  2. Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Winners and Losers of TCJA By Wenli Li; Edison Yu
  3. The Size Distribution of Cities with Distance-Bound Households By Axel Watanabe
  4. The Size Distribution of Cities with Distance-Bound Households By Watanabe, Axel
  5. Borders, Roads and the Relocation of Economic Activity Due to Extreme Weather By Jasmin Katrin Gröschl; Thomas Steinwachs
  6. Who Teaches the Teachers? A RCT of Peer-to-Peer Observation and Feedback in 181 Schools By Richard Murphy; Felix Weinhardt; Gill Wyness
  7. Micromobility evolution and expansion: Understanding how docked and dockless bikesharing models complement and compete – A case study of San Francisco By Lazarus, Jessica; Pourquier, Jean Carpentier; Feng, Frank; Hammel, Henry; Shaheen, Susan
  8. Using admission lotteries to estimate heterogeneous effects of elite schools By Hessel Oosterbeek; Nienke Ruijs; Inge de Wolf
  9. The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook By Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
  10. Do Minorities Pay More for Mortgages? By Neil Bhutta; Aurel Hizmo
  11. Fiscal Decentralization and Life Satisfaction in Chile By Leonardo Letelier S.; José Luis Sáez Lozano
  12. Credit Supply Driven Boom-Bust Cycles By Yavuz Arslan; Bulent Guler; Burhan Kuruscu
  13. Can Early Intervention have a Sustained Effect on Human Capital? By Orla Doyle
  14. How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? By Francois de Soyres; Alen Mulabdic; Siobhan Murray; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta
  15. Jordan Housing Sector Review By World Bank Group
  16. Inequalities in resources in the home learning environment By Laura Outhwaite
  17. Identifying regions at risk with Google Trends: the impact of Covid-19 on US labour markets By Sebastian Doerr; Leonardo Gambacorta
  18. Dutch municipal elections 1998-2018: more localism and fragmentation By Raymond Gradus; Elbert Dijkgraaf; Tjerk Budding
  19. Immigration, Innovation, and Growth By Konrad B. Burchardi; Thomas Chaney; Tarek A. Hassan; Lisa Tarquinio; Steohen Terry
  20. High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather By Garbarino, Nicola; Guin, Benjamin
  21. Bike Lanes and Slow Car Speeds Can Improve Bicycling Comfort for Some (But Not All) People By Fitch, Dillon; Handy, Susan L.; Carlen, Jane
  22. Does the Winner Take It All? Redistributive Policies and Political Extremism By Gianmarco Daniele; Amedeo Piolatto; Willem Sas
  23. Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions By David Arnold; Will S. Dobbie; Peter Hull
  24. Effects of Gentrification on Homeowners: Evidence from a Natural Experiment By Lei Ding; Jackelyn Hwang
  25. The Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching and its Effects on Housing Prices By Nathaly Rivera; Scott Loveridge
  26. Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic By John M. Barrios; Yael Hochberg
  27. The impact of classroom, school, neighborhood, and institutional factors on teachers’ expectations By Becker, Dominik; Wessling, Katarina
  28. Ethnic Geography: Measurement and Evidence By Roland Hodler; Michele Valsecchi; Alberto Vesperoni
  29. Impacts of enterprise zones on local households in Vietnam By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  30. Effect of female elementary-school homeroom teachers on time preferences in adulthood By Yamamura, Eiji; Kang, Myong-Il; Ikeda, Shinsuke
  31. When Do Teachers Respond to Student Feedback? Evidence from a Field Experiment By Margaretha Buurman; Josse Delfgaauw; Robert Dur; Robin Zoutenbier
  32. On the integration of Shapley-Scarf housing markets By Rajnish Kunar; Kriti Manocha; Josue Ortega
  33. The urban rural-education gap: do cities indeed make us smarter? By Raoul van Maarseveen
  34. The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City By Jeffrey E. Harris
  35. TFSAs: One More Case for Longer-Term Mortgages: Financial Stability By Michael Feldman
  36. Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility By Fergus Cumming; Lisa J. Dettling
  37. A Social Network Analysis of Occupational Segregation By I. S. Buhai; M. J. van der Leij
  38. Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina : The Role of Contextual Factors and Complementarities By Arza,Valeria Luciana; Cirera,Xavier; Colonna,Agustina; Lopez,Emanuel
  39. All roads lead to market integration : lessons from a spatial analysis of the wheat market in 18th century Spain By Santiago Caballero, Carlos; López Cermeño, Alexandra
  40. Top 10 Quick-Win Smart City Services for Cairo Governorate By World Bank
  41. Small business owners as gatekeepers of knowledge? Personality traits & modes of innovation By Runst, Petrik; Thomä, Jörg
  42. Do Swedish Schools Discriminate against Children with Disabilities? By Ahmed, Ali; Hammarstedt, Mats; Karlsson, Karl
  43. Chinese dialects, revolutionary war & economic performance By Zhu, Junbing; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
  44. Sub-National Allocation of COVID-19 Tests: An Efficiency Criterion with an Application to Italian Regions By Christelle Baunez; Mickael Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Patrick A. Pintus
  45. The roles of the state in the governance of socio-technical systems' transformation By Borrás, Susana; Edler, Jakob
  46. Returns to migration after job loss– the importance of job match By Orsa Kekezi; Andres Ron Boschma
  47. Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Mobility under Mild Policies: Causal Evidence from Sweden By Matz Dahlberg; Per-Anders Edin; Erik Gr\"onqvist; Johan Lyhagen; John \"Osth; Alexey Siretskiy; Marina Toger
  48. Covid-19: Testing Inequality in New York City By Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Ken Teoh; Martín Uribe
  49. Border crossings to neighboring countries: Analysis of the opportunities and challenges of catenary trucks for freight transport to neighboring regions of Baden-Wuerttemberg By Wietschel, Martin; Burghard, Uta; Plötz, Patrick
  50. Building Sustainable Local Food Solutions: How Canadian Indigenous Communities are Using the Social and Solidarity Economy to Implement Zero Hunger By Jennifer SUMNER; Derya TARHAN; John Justin McMURTRY
  51. IV Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panels with Interactive Effects: Large Sample Theory and an Application on Bank Attitude By Guowei Cui; Vasilis Sarafidis; Takashi Yamagata
  52. An information-theoretic approach to the analysis of location and co-location patterns By Alje van Dam; Andres Gomez-Lievano; Frank Neffke; Koen Frenken
  53. Developing a typology for mission-oriented innovation policies By Wittmann, Florian; Hufnagl, Miriam; Lindner, Ralf; Roth, Florian; Edler, Jakob
  54. SMEs’ direct and indirect access to public guarantees: an evaluation of regional regulations By Luciano Lavecchia; Luigi Leva; David Loschiavo
  55. Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs By Sharat Ganapati; Woan Foong Wong; Oren Ziv
  56. Mobility on Demand in the United States By Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam
  57. Observability, Social Proximity, and the Erosion of Norm Compliance By Cristina Bicchieri; Eugen Dimant; Simon Gaechter; Daniele Nosenzo
  58. Performance Analysis of Fixed Route Shared Taxi Services (Jitney) - Case Study of Tehran, Iran By Ataeian, Shervin; Mostafavi, Alireza; Nabiloo, Roya
  59. The geographical psychology of recent graduates in the Netherlands: Relating environmental factors and personality traits to location choice By Hooijen, Inge; Bijlsma, Ineke; Cörvers, Frank; Poulissen, Davey
  60. Lending to the Unbanked: Relational Contracting with Loan Sharks By Kevin Lang; Kaiwen Leong; Huailu Li; Haibo Xu
  61. The Roots of Agricultural Innovation: Patent Evidence of Knowledge Spillovers By Matthew S. Clancy; Paul Heisey; Yongjie Ji; GianCarlo Moschini
  62. The Trading Response of Individual Investors to Local Bankruptcies By Christine Laudenbach; Benjamin Loos; Jenny Pirschel; Johannes Wohlfart
  63. Children’s Social Care and Early Intervention Policy in England By Dan Anderberg; Christina Olympiou
  64. Unemployment across the Euro Area: The Role of Shocks and Labor Market Institutions By Zhe Wang

  1. By: Roman Kalabiska (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic); Michal Hlavacek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic; Office of the Czech Fiscal Council, Holeckova 103/31, 15000 Prague 5, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper examines the behaviour of housing prices and identifies their determinants across Czech regions from 2000 to 2017. The effect of a wide range of variables on apartment prices is analyzed on quarterly data for all regions of the Czech Republic using panel dynamic OLS estimator. Furthermore, an error correction model is employed to verify the existence of long-term equilibrium of apartment prices and the speed of price adjustment in the short run. The regression reveales that apartment prices are driven mainly by wages, unemployment rate and building plot prices. In order to check robustness of selected model, several regions with unique characteristics are excluded from the sample and analyzed separately. Our results show that building plot prices have an unexpected negative effect in low-income regions and labour force factors are less important in Prague, caused by a number of unique features of the capital city.
    Keywords: Apartment prices, regional analysis, residential real estate, panel regression
    JEL: C23 O18 R11 R13 R31
    Date: 2020–04
  2. By: Wenli Li; Edison Yu
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of changes in the federal tax treatment of local property taxes stemming from the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in January 2018 on local housing markets. Using county-level house price information and IRS tax data, we find that capping the federal tax deduction of real estate taxes at $10,000 has caused the growth rate of home value to decline by an annualized 0.8 percentage point, or 15 percent, in areas where real estate taxes as shares of taxable income exceeded the national median. Additionally, these areas with a high real estate tax burden suffered from reductions in market liquidity after the reform. Fewer houses were transacted either in absolute numbers or as shares of total listings, houses stayed on the market longer before being sold, and more houses were listed with price cuts. Importantly, we find that the housing market slowdown was accompanied by declines in local construction employment growth as well as multi-family building permits. Furthermore, on net more people moved out of these areas after the reform. Finally, we show that the act has already had political consequences. In the 2018 midterm Senate elections, more voters voted for Democratic candidates in areas with high real estate tax burden than they did for Republican candidates.
    Keywords: real estate tax; home value; housing liquidity
    JEL: G1 R2 R0
    Date: 2020–04–01
  3. By: Axel Watanabe (Concordia University and CIREQ)
    Abstract: There has been a long tradition of presumed perfect mobility in urban economics. Workers switch their locations in direct response to differences in local economic performance. Recent empirical observations prove otherwise. The number of movers rapidly declines with distance moved while there is a positive correlation between distance moved and skill level. I build a general equilibrium model of a system of cities to explain the city-size distribution as a result of reduced mobility. Workers with a heterogeneous skill level have a corresponding distance-tolerance level and self-sort into select cities. The resulting size distribution reflects the trade-off between the distance moved and earning opportunities enhanced by agglomeration. I extrapolate consumers’ tolerance towards distance and skill level from US Census data on city size and intercity migration.
    Keywords: labor mobility, internal migration, city-size distribution
    JEL: J61 R12
    Date: 2020–04–13
  4. By: Watanabe, Axel
    Abstract: There has been a long tradition of presumed perfect mobility in urban economics. Workers switch their locations in direct response to differences in local economic performance. Recent empirical observations prove otherwise. The number of movers rapidly declines with distance moved while there is a positive correlation between distance moved and skill level. I build a general equilibrium model of a system of cities to explain the city-size distribution as a result of reduced mobility. Workers with a heterogeneous skill level have a corresponding distance-tolerance level and self-sort into select cities. The resulting size distribution reflects the trade-off between the distance moved and earning opportunities enhanced by agglomeration. I extrapolate consumers’ tolerance towards distance and skill level from US Census data on city size and intercity migration.
    Keywords: labor mobility, internal migration, city-size distribution
    JEL: J61 R12
    Date: 2020–04–17
  5. By: Jasmin Katrin Gröschl; Thomas Steinwachs
    Abstract: Extreme weather may give rise to the relocation of economic activity towards nearby locations. But how are the economic effects of weather events transmitted between locations? And, which role does the interconnection of small economic units play? This paper takes a granular approach to identify the role of connectivity on economic activity due to severe weather. We combine a 0.5°×0.5° grid-cell level dataset on economic activity and weather events with global geographic information on national borders and road networks. We first explore how a potential disruption of connectivity through an international border affects local spillovers in case of a weather shock. Second, we use road infrastructure as a proxy for overall connectivity to explore how this affects the diversion of economic activity across local economic units. Results suggest that international borders limit economic relocation due to extreme weather to domestic neighboring cells. The existence of major road infrastructure between locations is key to the relocation of economic activity due to a weather event. Without a transport network, spillovers between local economic units do, on average, not exist or are at least very limited and costly to implement.
    Keywords: light emission, weather, connectivity, border effect, road network
    JEL: F15 O18 Q54 R11
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Richard Murphy; Felix Weinhardt; Gill Wyness
    Abstract: This paper evaluates a widely used, low stakes, teacher peer-to-peer observation and feedback program under Randomized Control Trial (RCT) conditions. Half of 181 volunteer primary schools in England were randomly selected to participate in a two-year program in which three fourth and fifth grade teachers observed each other. We find that two cohorts of students taught by treated teachers perform no better on externally graded national tests compared to business as usual. However this masks large heterogeneity; in small schools, which would have no choice over which teachers would be involved, we find negative impacts of the training (0.1-0.18SD), whereas we find positive impacts in larger schools (0.06-0.17SD). We conclude that the widely-used feedback program that we study is only productive in larger schools, and that centralised one-size-fits-fall teacher training interventions may be harmful.
    Keywords: education, teachers, RCT, peer mentoring
    JEL: I21 I28 M53
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Lazarus, Jessica; Pourquier, Jean Carpentier; Feng, Frank; Hammel, Henry; Shaheen, Susan
    Abstract: Shared micromobility – the shared use of bicycles, scooters, or other low-speed modes – is an innovative transportation strategy growing across the United States that includes various service models such as docked, dockless, and e-bike service models. This research focuses on understanding how docked bikesharing and dockless e-bikesharing models complement and compete with respect to user travel behaviors. To inform our analysis, we used two datasets from February 2018 of Ford GoBike (docked) and JUMP (dockless electric) bikesharing trips in San Francisco. We employed three methodological approaches: 1) travel behavior analysis, 2) discrete choice analysis with a destination choice model, and 3) geospatial suitability analysis based on the Spatial Temporal Economic Physiological Social (STEPS) to Transportation Equity framework. We found that dockless e-bikesharing trips were longer in distance and duration than docked trips. The average JUMP trip was about a third longer in distance and about twice as long in duration than the average GoBike trip. JUMP users were far less sensitive to estimated total elevation gain than were GoBike users, making trips with total elevation gain about three times larger than those of GoBike users, on average. The JUMP system achieved greater usage rates than GoBike, with 0.8 more daily trips per bike and 2.3 more miles traveled on each bike per day, on average. The destination choice model results suggest that JUMP users traveled to lower-density destinations, and GoBike users were largely traveling to dense employment areas. Bike rack density was a significant positive factor for JUMP users. The location of GoBike docking stations may attract users and/or be well-placed to the destination preferences of users. The STEPS-based bikeability analysis revealed opportunities for the expansion of both bikesharing systems in areas of the city where high-job density and bike facility availability converge with older resident populations.
    Keywords: Engineering, Micromobility, Bikesharing, E-bike, Dockless, Destination choice, Transportation equity
    Date: 2020–04–01
  8. By: Hessel Oosterbeek (University of Amsterdam); Nienke Ruijs (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Inge de Wolf (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of enrollment in an elite school on students’ achievement. We use that elite schools in Amsterdam are often oversubscribed and admission is based on lotteries. Our results show that elite schools have negative effects on achievement of students who just qualify for the highest academic track and positive effects on achievement of students from the top of the baseline ability distribution. These results reconcile contrasting findings from previous studies that use regression discontinuity designs. We also find that value-added estimates of the effects of elite schools are severely biased.
    JEL: I21 I24 C26
    Date: 2020–04–19
  9. By: Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to show that areas with stronger social ties to two early COVID-19 "hotspots" (Westchester County, NY, in the U.S. and Lodi province in Italy) generally have more confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 30, 2020. These relationships hold after controlling for geographic distance to the hotspots as well as for the income and population density of the regions. These results suggest that data from online social networks may prove useful to epidemiologists and others hoping to forecast the spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19.
    JEL: I0 R0
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Neil Bhutta; Aurel Hizmo
    Abstract: We test for racial discrimination in the prices charged by mortgage lenders. We construct a unique dataset where we observe all three dimensions of a mortgage's price: the interest rate, discount points, and fees. While we find statistically significant gaps by race and ethnicity in interest rates, these gaps are offset by differences in discount points. We trace out point-rate schedules and show that minorities and whites face identical schedules, but sort to different locations on the schedule. Such sorting may reflect systematic differences in liquidity or preferences. Finally, we find no differences in total fees by race or ethnicity.
    Keywords: Discrimination; Fair lending; Mortgage; Points; Interest rate; FHA; Consumer protection; High-cost mortgage
    JEL: G21 G28 R51
    Date: 2020–01–31
  11. By: Leonardo Letelier S. (Institute of Public Affairs, University of Chile); José Luis Sáez Lozano (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada)
    Abstract: This research hinges upon the relationship between fiscal decentralization (FD) and subjective well-being (SWB) in Chile. We merge data from two household surveys (2011 and 2013) in which a life satisfaction question was included, with municipal-level information. By using a FD proxy that measures the share of municipal unconditional grants on all revenues, we produce an instrumental variable to test in the context of an ordered logistic multilevel model. Our contribution is twofold. First, we find evidence that, on average, FD does affect SWB positively. Second, we find this effect to depend on the satisfaction group in which individuals belong. Evidence from this study indicates that the effect in question is non-linear and that only high SWB groups are clearly benefitted. Since this reflects different priorities across SWB groups, this paper’s evidence is a call for a more aggressive inter-municipal fiscal equalization scheme.
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Yavuz Arslan; Bulent Guler; Burhan Kuruscu
    Abstract: Can shifts in the credit supply generate a boom-bust cycle similar to the one observed in the US around 2008? To answer this question, we develop a general equilibrium model that combines a rich heterogeneous agent overlapping-generations structure of households who make housing tenure decisions and borrow through long-term mortgages, firms that finance their working capital through short-term loans from banks, and banks whose ability to intermediate funds depends on their capital. Using a calibrated version of this framework, we find that shocks to banks’ leverage can generate sizable boom-bust cycles in the housing market, the banking sector, and the rest of the macroeconomy, which provides strong support for the credit supply channel. The deterioration of bank balance sheets during the bust, the existence of highly leveraged households, and the general equilibrium feedback from the credit supply to household labor income significantly amplify the bust. Moreover, mortgage credit growth across the income distribution is consistent with recent findings that were otherwise argued to be against the credit supply channel. A comparison of the model outcomes across credit supply, house price expectation, and productivity shocks suggests that housing busts accompanied by severe banking crises are more likely to be generated by credit supply shocks.
    Keywords: Credit Supply, House Prices, Financial Crises, Household and Bank Balance Sheets, Leverage, Foreclosures, Consumption, and Output.
    JEL: E21 E32 E44 E60 G20
    Date: 2020–04–20
  13. By: Orla Doyle (School of Economics & Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin)
    Abstract: Evidence on the sustained effect of early intervention is inconclusive, with many studies experiencing a dissolution of treatment effects once the program ends. Using a randomized trial, this paper examines the impact of Preparing for Life (PFL), a pregnancy to age five home visiting and parenting program, on outcomes in middle childhood. We find little evidence of cognitive fade-out at age nine, with significant treatment effects on cognitive skills (0.67SD) and school achievement tests (0.47-0.74SD) that are of a similar magnitude to those observed at the end of the program. There is no impact on other school outcomes and earlier effects for socio-emotional skills are no longer evident. While about 50 percent of the sample is retained at age nine, the treatment groups are still balanced on all key baseline characteristics and the results are robust to inverse probability weighting. Mediation analysis suggests that ~46 percent of the treatment effect on cognitive skills is explained by improvements in early parental investment. This study demonstrates that boosting children’s early cognitive skills can reduce school-age inequalities five years after program completion, yet continued investment may be needed to break long-standing inequalities in other dimensions of skills.
    Keywords: Early childhood intervention; cognitive skills; socio-emotional and behavioral skills; randomized control trial; school-age inequalities.
    JEL: C93 D13 I26 J13
    Date: 2020–04–20
  14. By: Francois de Soyres; Alen Mulabdic; Siobhan Murray; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of transport infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road Initiative on shipment times and trade costs. Based on a new data on completed and planned Belt and Road transport projects, Geographic Information System analysis is used to estimate shipment times before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Two sets of data are computed to address different research questions: a global database based on an analysis of 1,000 cities in 191 countries and 47 sectors and a regional database that focuses on more granular information (1,818 cities) for Belt and Road economies only. The paper uses sectoral estimates of “value of time” to transform changes in shipment times into changes in ad valorem trade costs at the country‐sector level. The findings show that the Belt and Road Initiative will significantly reduce shipment times and trade costs. For the world, the average reduction in shipment time will range between 1.2 and 2.5 percent, leading to reduction of aggregate trade costs between 1.1 and 2.2 percent. For Belt and Road economies, the change in shipment times and trade costs will range between 1.7 and 3.2 percent and 1.5 and 2.8 percent, respectively. Belt and Road economies located along the corridors where projects are built experience the largest gains. Shipment times along these corridors decline by up to 11.9 percent and trade costs by up to 10.2 percent.
    Keywords: Transport infrastructure; GIS analysis; Shipment times; Trade costs
    JEL: F14 F15 R41
    Date: 2020–02–26
  15. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements - Urban Housing and Land Settlements Finance and Financial Sector Development - Housing Finance Urban Development - National Urban Development Policies & Strategies Urban Development - Urban Governance and Management Urban Development - Urban Housing
    Date: 2018–05
  16. By: Laura Outhwaite (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London)
    Abstract: Since 23rd March 2020, UK schools have been closed for most children due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, there is a greater emphasis on the implementation of children's education by parents at home, as well as perhaps a greater reliance on access to educational technologies. There are concerns that the impact of school closures will disproportionally impact children from lower socio-economic backgrounds and widen the attainment gap between them and their peers from more affluent backgrounds (Montacute, 2020). This briefing note summarises the empirical evidence on inequalities in 1) the home learning environment and 2) resources, including educational technologies, which may affect access to education during these challenging times.
    Keywords: Home learning, Inequality, Family resources, Pupil achievement.
    JEL: I20 I21 I24
    Date: 2020–04
  17. By: Sebastian Doerr; Leonardo Gambacorta
    Abstract: Information on local labour markets and Google searches can be used to construct a measure of the vulnerability of employment in different regions of the United States to the Covid-19 shock. Regional exposure to Covid-19 varies significantly, ranging from a low of 2% to a high of 98% of total local employment. We test for the usefulness of the Covid-19 exposure measure by showing that areas with higher exposure report more Google search queries related to the pandemic and unemployment benefits.
    Date: 2020–04–21
  18. By: Raymond Gradus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Elbert Dijkgraaf (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Tjerk Budding (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Exploring the outcome of Dutch municipal elections between 1998 and 2018, this paper finds two dominant trends: increasing political fragmentation and localism. When explaining localism, the number of inhabitants, regional diversity and the election year dummies are significant. The last result gives some indication for a welfare hypothesis as a large decentralisation of Dutch social policy took place in 2007 and 2015. Some evidence is found for a merger effect of more or less equal municipalities. There is evidence as well that more fragmentation in the municipal council leads to more aldermen. The number of aldermen is also depending on the number of inhabitants and a merger effect in case of two municipalities.
    Keywords: local elections, political fragmentation, localism, empirical research
    JEL: H76 D72
    Date: 2020–04–20
  19. By: Konrad B. Burchardi (Institute for International Economic Studies); Thomas Chaney (Sciences Po); Tarek A. Hassan (Boston University, NBER, and CEPR); Lisa Tarquinio (Boston University); Steohen Terry (Boston University)
    Abstract: We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and dynamism in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties that results purely from the interaction of two historical forces: (i) changes over time in the relative attractiveness of different destinations within the US to the average migrant arriving at the time and (ii) the staggered timing of the arrival of migrants from different origin countries. We then use this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition to predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show four main results. First, immigration has a positive impact on innovation, measured by the patenting of local firms. Second, immigration has a positive impact on measures of local economic dynamism. Third, the positive impact of immigration on innovation percolates over space, but spatial spillovers quickly die out with distance. Fourth, the impact of immigration on innovation is stronger for more educated migrants.
    Keywords: migrations, innovation, patents, endogenous growth, dynamism
    JEL: J61 O31 O40
    Date: 2020–04
  20. By: Garbarino, Nicola (Bank of England); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England)
    Abstract: Policymakers have put forward proposals to ensure that banks do not underestimate long-term risks from climate change. To examine how lenders account for extreme weather, we compare matched repeat mortgage and property transactions around a severe flood event in England in 2013–14. First, lender valuations do not ‘mark-to-market’ against local price declines. As a result valuations are biased upwards. Second, lenders do not offset this valuation bias by adjusting interest rates or loan amounts. Third, borrowers with low credit risk self-select into high flood risk areas. Overall, these results suggest that lenders do not track closely the impact of extreme weather ex-post, and that public flood insurance programs may subsidise high income households.
    Keywords: D12; G21; Q51; Q54
    JEL: D12 G21 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2020–03–20
  21. By: Fitch, Dillon; Handy, Susan L.; Carlen, Jane
    Abstract: Transportation planners in cities across the country are trying to increase bicycling to achieve mobility, public health, and environmental goals. For bicycling to become a mainstream travel mode, however, riders must feel safe and comfortable in the bicycling environment. Thus, cities are changing transportation infrastructure to provide more bicycling-friendly streets. It remains unclear exactly how much infrastructure change is needed to make potential cyclists feel comfortable enough to bicycle regularly. To better understand what road characteristics contribute to more comfortable bicycling, researchers at UC Davis surveyed 3,089 travelers to the UC Davis campus to measure perceived comfort of bicycling in different road environments using video recordings of 25 urban and rural roads from the San Francisco Bay Area. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research, which provide guidance for communities aiming to increase bicycling. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycle facilities, Bicycle lanes, Campus transportation, Comfort, Cyclists, Socioeconomic factors, Surveys, Travel surveys, Video
    Date: 2020–04–01
  22. By: Gianmarco Daniele; Amedeo Piolatto; Willem Sas
    Abstract: We show that regional heterogeneity of underlying fundamentals (e.g. economic history, geography, social capital) can lead to extreme voting in federations. When the outcome of federal policies – such as transfer schemes, market regulation or migration laws – depends on these fundamentals, the set of regions that wins or loses from a given policy is fixed. This gives voters a strategic incentive to distort the policy magnitude, by electing federal representatives that are extremely protective of regional interests. Interestingly, the benefits of selecting tough negotiators outweigh those of belonging to the ruling coalition. We test our predictions by looking at parties’ performances at national and European Parliament elections from 1990 onwards, and find that strategic voting is indeed U-shaped: winning and losing member states vote more extremely than those in the middle. Our online survey provides further evidence.
    Keywords: political extremism, interregional redistribution, federalism, strategic delegation, bargaining, coalitions, EU elections, Euroscepticism, populism
    JEL: D72 H60 H71 H77
    Date: 2020
  23. By: David Arnold; Will S. Dobbie; Peter Hull
    Abstract: We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure racial discrimination in the context of bail decisions. Observational comparisons of white and black pretrial release rates suffer from omitted variables bias when there are unobserved racial differences in pretrial misconduct potential. We show that the bias in these observational comparisons is a function of average white and black misconduct risk, which can be estimated from the quasi-random assignment of bail judges. Estimates from New York City show that less than one-third of the release rate disparity between white and black defendants is explained by unobserved differences in misconduct potential, with more than two-thirds explained by racial discrimination. We then develop a hierarchical marginal treatment effects model that imposes additional structure on the quasi-experimental variation to investigate the drivers of this discrimination. Model estimates show that discrimination in bail decisions is driven by both racial bias and statistical discrimination, with the latter coming from a higher level of average risk and less precise risk signals for black defendants.
    JEL: C26 J15 K42
    Date: 2020–04
  24. By: Lei Ding; Jackelyn Hwang
    Abstract: A major overhaul of the property tax system in 2013 in the city of Philadelphia has generated significant variations in the amount of property taxes across properties. This exogenous policy shock provides a unique opportunity to identify the causal effects of gentrification, which is often accompanied by increased property values, on homeowners’ tax payment behavior and residential mobility. The analysis, based on a difference-in-differences framework, suggests that gentrification leads to a higher risk of delinquency on homeowners’ tax bills on average, but there was no sign of a large-scale departure of elderly or long-term homeowners in gentrifying neighborhoods within five years after adoption of the new policy. While tax delinquencies were somewhat inflated by appeals for reassessments, programs designed to provide tax relief for long-term homeowners help mitigate the risk of tax delinquencies and displacement. Findings from this study help researchers, policymakers, and practitioners better understand the mechanisms through which gentrification may impact long-term homeowners and the effectiveness of policies to mitigate these tax burdens and displacement.
    Keywords: property tax; tax delinquency; residential mobility; gentrification
    JEL: R51 H31 H20 H71
    Date: 2020–04–16
  25. By: Nathaly Rivera (University of Alaska Anchorage); Scott Loveridge (Michigan State University)
    Abstract: We derive causal property value impacts of the coal-to-gas fuel switching conversion implemented by several power plants in the United States. We use an extensive dataset of property transactions around the country and adopt several spatial difference-in-difference approaches that use records of residential property transactions of homes with wind exposure and proximity to the switching plants before and after the switch. A triple-differences control function estimator using coal-fired plants that did not innovate strengthens these estimations. Our results indicate that the shutdown of coal-fired generators increases property values of downwind homes by 15% in the immediate vicinity of fuel-switching plants (
    Keywords: Fossil Fuels, Fuel Switching, Environmental Quality, Housing Market, Environmental Valuation, Hedonic Models
    JEL: C7 C9 D7 Q2
    Date: 2020–03
  26. By: John M. Barrios; Yael Hochberg
    Abstract: Even when, objectively speaking, death is on the line, partisan bias still colors beliefs about facts. We show that a higher share of Trump voters in a county is associated with lower perceptions of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Trump voter share rises, individuals search less for information on the virus, and engage in less social distancing behavior, as measured by smartphone location patterns. These patterns persist in the face of state-level mandates to close schools and businesses or to “stay home,” and reverse only when conservative politicians are exposed and the White House releases federal social distancing guidelines.
    JEL: D8 I1 L82 P16
    Date: 2020–04
  27. By: Becker, Dominik; Wessling, Katarina (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, ROA / Education and occupational career)
    Abstract: Teachers represent a crucial dimension of social stratification in the school system. Their assessments of students matter by exerting short-term effects on students’ motivation and achievement, but also by influencing students’ educational prospects. Research shows that teachers’ assessments are reasonably accurate. However, there is a residual component of inaccuracy emerging from individual-level factors (e.g., students’ social or immigrant origin) as well as from classroom and school composition. In the present contribution, we add to this literature by providing a dual-process explanation on how contextual conditions on several levels, i.e., classroom, school, neighborhood and institution simultaneously frame teachers’ expectations of their students. We test our theoretical model by using data comprising information on teachers, students, parents, and contextual settings of German elementary schools. We exploit institutional variations that influence the extent to which teachers perceive their expectations as relevant (i.e., binding versus non-binding recommendations for secondary school tracks). Results show that teachers’ expectations are positively framed by a high share of students with immigrant background in the classroom. Yet, this effect is only valid for native students. Furthermore, we observe mutually reinforcing framing effects of the classroom’s and the neighborhood’s social composition on teachers’ expectations. Finally, context influences are attenuated when teachers perceive their expectations as more relevant (i.e. track recommendations are binding).
    JEL: C33 I24 D81
    Date: 2020–04–14
  28. By: Roland Hodler (Department of Economics, University of St.Gallen; CEPR, London; CESifo, Munich); Michele Valsecchi (New Economic School, Moscow); Alberto Vesperoni (Department of Economics, Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt)
    Abstract: The effects of ethnic geography, i.e., the distribution of ethnic groups across space, on economic, political and social outcomes are not well understood. We develop a novel index of ethnic segregation that takes both ethnic and spatial distances between individuals into account. Importantly, we can decompose this index into indices of spatial dispersion, generalized ethnic fractionalization, and the alignment of spatial and ethnic distances. We use ethnographic maps, spatially disaggregated population data, and language trees to compute these four indices for around 160 countries. We apply these indices to study the relation between ethnic geography and current economic, political and social outcomes. We document that country level quality of government, income and trust increase with the alignment component of segregation, i.e., with the ratio between the country’s actual segregation and the segregation it would have if ethnic groups were represented in each location with population shares identical to their country-level population share. Hence, all else equal, countries where ethnically diverse individuals live farther apart tend to perform better.
    Keywords: Ethnic diversity; ethnic geography; segregation; fractionalization; quality of government; economic development
    JEL: C43 D63 O10 Z13
    Date: 2019–06–03
  29. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: Based on the “winner-loser” scheme, we examine the possible impacts of enterprise zones (EZs) on local Vietnamese households between 2002 and 2008, using differences-indifferences approach and a panel-event study. We layer four waves of household surveys using a census of EZs in 2007, based on the same commune identity for our household and individual analyses. Within five years of EZ establishment, we find they are associated with higher household incomes, an increase in private property prices, and an increase in working hours.However, we do not find a significant impact on household living expenditure or school attendance/working probabilities among members aged between 7 and 17 years. Neither do we find a significant impact on health outcomes.
    Keywords: Enterprise zone, Health, Household, Income, School Attendance, Vietnam, O12, O18, D1, P36
    Date: 2020–04
  30. By: Yamamura, Eiji; Kang, Myong-Il; Ikeda, Shinsuke
    Abstract: Using teacher–student random gender matching and hand-collected individual-level data, we examine how female teachers in elementary schools influence students’ time preferences in adulthood. Our major finding is that female teachers lead pupils to have lower time discount rates. Furthermore, this effect on male pupils is larger than on female pupils.
    Keywords: Time preference, Gender difference, Teacher–Student gender matches
    JEL: A22 A29 J16
    Date: 2020–04–10
  31. By: Margaretha Buurman; Josse Delfgaauw; Robert Dur; Robin Zoutenbier
    Abstract: We ran a field experiment at a large Dutch school for intermediate vocational education to examine whether the response of teachers to student feedback depends on the content of the feedback. Students evaluated all teachers, but only a randomly selected group of teachers received feedback. Additionally, we asked all teachers before as well as a year after the experiment to assess their own performance on the same items. We find a precisely estimated zero average treatment effect of receiving student feedback on student evaluation scores a year later. However, teachers whose self-assessment before the experiment is much more positive than their students. evaluations do improve significantly in response to receiving feedback. We also find that pro-vision of feedback reduces the gap between teachers. self-assessment and students. assessment, but only to a limited extent. All of these results are driven by the female teachers in our sample; male teachers appear to be unresponsive to student feedback.
    Keywords: field experiment, feedback, teachers, student evaluations, self-assessment, gender differences
    JEL: C93 I20 M50
    Date: 2020
  32. By: Rajnish Kunar; Kriti Manocha; Josue Ortega
    Abstract: We study the welfare consequences of merging disjoint Shapley-Scarf housing markets. We obtain tight bounds on the number of agents harmed by integration and on the size of their losses. We show that, in the worst-case scenario, market integration may harm the vast majority of agents, and that the average rank of an agent's house can decrease (asymptotically) by 50% of the length of their preference list. We also obtain average-case results. We exactly compute the expected gains from integration in random markets, where each of the preference profiles is chosen uniformly at random. We show that, on average, market integration benefits all agents, particularly those in smaller markets. Using the expected number of cycles in the top trading cycles algorithm, we bound the expected number of agents harmed by integration. In particular, the expected fraction of agents harmed by integration is less than 50% if each market has the same size and this is below 26 (independent of the number of markets that merge). We conclude by providing a preference domain that ensures that those harmed by market integration are a minority.
    Date: 2020–04
  33. By: Raoul van Maarseveen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: Despite the existence of a large urban-rural education gap in many countries, little attention has been paid whether cities enjoy a comparative advantage in the production of human capital. Using Dutch administrative data, this paper finds that conditional on family characteristics and cognitive ability, children who grow up in urban regions consistently attain higher levels of human capital compared to children in rural regions. The elasticity of university attendance with respect to population density is 0.07, which is robust across a wide variety of specifications. Hence, the paper highlights an alternative channel to explain the rise of the city. .
    JEL: I20 J24 R10
    Date: 2020–04
  34. By: Jeffrey E. Harris
    Abstract: New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
    JEL: I1 I12 I14 I18 I28
    Date: 2020–04
  35. By: Michael Feldman (Torys LLP)
    Keywords: Financial Services and Regulation; Financial Stability;Housing and Mortgages;Prudential Regulation
    JEL: G28 R21 R38
    Date: 2020–01
  36. By: Fergus Cumming; Lisa J. Dettling
    Abstract: This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Using administrative data on mortgages and births in the UK, our empirical strategy exploits variation in the timing of when families were eligible for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession. We estimate that each 1 percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates by 2 percent. In aggregate, this pass-through of accommodative monetary policy to mortgage rates was sufficiently large to outweigh the headwinds of the Great Recession and prevent a “baby bust” in the UK, in contrast to the US. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.
    Keywords: Mortgages; Monetary policy; Birth rates; Fertility; Natality; Interest rates
    JEL: D12 E43 E52 J13 R31
    Date: 2020–01–03
  37. By: I. S. Buhai; M. J. van der Leij
    Abstract: We develop a network model of occupational segregation between social groups divided along gender or racial dimensions, generated by the existence of positive assortative matching among individuals from the same group. If referrals are important for job search, then expected homophily in the structure of job contact networks induces different career choices for individuals from different social groups. This further translates into stable occupational segregation equilibria in the labor market. We derive conditions for wage and unemployment inequality in the segregation equilibria and characterize both the first and the second best social welfare optima. We find that utilitarian socially optimal policies always involve segregation, but that integration policies are justifiable by additional distributional concerns. Our analysis suggests that social interaction through homophilous job referral networks is an important channel for the propagation and persistence of gender and racial inequalities in the labour market, complementary to classical theories such as taste or statistical discrimination.
    Date: 2020–04
  38. By: Arza,Valeria Luciana; Cirera,Xavier; Colonna,Agustina; Lopez,Emanuel
    Abstract: Argentina's private investment in research and development is well below that of its peers. One important reason may be low and very heterogeneous returns to research and development activities on productivity. This paper uses novel microdata to estimate the returns to research and development and understand the contextual factors that shape their heterogeneity. The paper groups these context-based factors into knowledge complementary factors (that is, factors that affect the returns via learning capabilities from external sources of knowledge) and market complementary factors (factors that act via business capabilities to appropriate the returns to research and development investments). The paper hypothesizes that the effects of contextual factors depend on firms'management capabilities and attitudes (innovative capacity), which determine firms'ability to benefit from the context. The findings suggest that the returns are indeed heterogeneous across regions and sectors, and these results depend on some context-based factors, which can boost or depress the returns to R&D. The results have important policy implications, considering the effectiveness of innovation policies, need for adapting to specific regions and sectors, and maximization of the impact of these factors on the returns to research and development.
    Date: 2020–04–30
  39. By: Santiago Caballero, Carlos; López Cermeño, Alexandra
    Abstract: This paper uses newly collected data from a large-scale census (Catastro de la Ensenada) to investigate the scale and causes of market integration in eighteenth century Spain. We use wheat prices observed in more than 5,200 municipalities to analyse the local spatial dependence of prices. We detect several regional clusters in the centre and coasts but find that these were not integrated with each other. We then investigate the first nature, second nature, and demand side determinants of these clusters and find that although geographical constrains like terrain roughness play a negatively significant role, the transportation network allowed connected municipalities to alleviate such obstacles. Our results suggest that unfavourable geographical conditions can be overcome by investments in transportation infrastructures.
    Keywords: Geography; Prices; Grain Markets; Market Integration; Early Modern
    Date: 2020–04–28
  40. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Governance - E-Government Urban Development - City Development Strategies Urban Development - Urban Economic Development Urban Development - Urban Services to the Poor Urban Development - Urban Water & Waste Management
    Date: 2018–06
  41. By: Runst, Petrik; Thomä, Jörg
    Abstract: Previous research has established that certain personality traits represent predictors of start-up activity. We argue that similar cognitive processes that affect entrepreneurship also play a role in firm-level innovativeness. For example, open-ness to novelty can be regarded as a key component of entrepreneurial alertness in terms of both business creation and the generation of innovations within existing businesses. Based on a large survey of less R&D-intensive SMEs from Germany, we show that certain Big Five personality traits as well as certain personality prototypes of business owners are positively related to innovation activity. More importantly, this relationship depends on the mode of innovation, where companies operating under the DUI mode (Doing-Using-Interacting) seem to benefit in particular from certain owners' personality characteristics. In addition, we present evidence that complementarities between entrepreneurs' personality traits exist in terms of self-selection into the DUI mode. To explain our findings, we argue that the personali-ty characteristics of small business owners affect whether or not absorptive capacity can mediate between external knowledge and firm-level innovativeness.
    Keywords: Innovation,Modes of innovation,Absorptive capacity,Personality Traits,Big Five,SMEs
    JEL: L26 O31 O33
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Ahmed, Ali (Department of Management and Engineering); Hammarstedt, Mats (Linnæus University and); Karlsson, Karl (Department of Economics and Statistics)
    Abstract: We present results from a field experiment in which fictitious parents to children with certain types of disabilities, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), make inquires to Swedish schools about admission for their children to the compulsory preschool class. Our results reveal that Swedish schools discriminated against children with these disabilities and that discrimination is most prevalent in private schools. Private schools discriminated against boys with ADHD and T1DM and against girls with ADHD. Furthermore, public schools discriminated against girls with ADHD. One potential effect of our results is that children with disabilities are referred to less attractive schools than children with no such medical conditions. These results may have implications for the possibilities for individuals with ADHD and T1DM to succeed in the labor market in the long run.
    Keywords: Schools; Disabilities; Discrimination
    JEL: I24 J14 J71
    Date: 2020–04–15
  43. By: Zhu, Junbing; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the effects of dialectal diversity on economic performance by drawing evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities. Our dataset is a panel of 5-year average data over the period from 2001 to 2015 including 274 cities. We compute five indices of Chinese dialectal diversity: 1. Dialectal fractionalization; 2. Adjusted dialectal fractionalization; 3. Dialectal polarization; 4. Adjusted dialectal polarization and 5. Periphery heterogeneity. We find that dialectal fractionalization and dialectal polarization as well as periphery heterogeneity have a positive effect on both income per capita and economic growth. Adjusted dialectal fractionalization exhibits a positive effect only on the change in economic growth over time. However, adjusted dialectal polarization does not show any robust effects. Furthermore, the experience of being governed by the Chinese Communist Party during the revolutionary war inhibits the negative effects of dialectal diversity in eastern China, while it has persistent negative effects in central and north-eastern regions of the country.
    Keywords: dialectal diversity,local economic performance,communist governance
    JEL: O10 O40 P51 Z19
    Date: 2020
  44. By: Christelle Baunez (INT, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS); Mickael Degoulet (INT, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS); Stéphane Luchini (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE); Patrick A. Pintus (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE)
    Abstract: Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
    Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic dynamics; acceleration of harm; deceleration of harm; real-time analysis; sub-national allocation of tests; efficiency criterion; Italy
    JEL: I18 H12
    Date: 2020–04
  45. By: Borrás, Susana; Edler, Jakob
    Abstract: The transformative turn of innovation policy has resulted in calls for a more entrepreneurial and directional role of the state. However, the multiple roles that the state might play in such processes remain underexplored. This paper studies the embedded role of the state in four distinct modes of governance in socio-technical systems. Using a three-pillar analytical model, the paper examines four illustrative cases: cryptocurrencies, smart cities, automated vehicles, and nuclear power. The paper identifies 13 different roles of the state, indicating relevant variation across the four modes of governance. We discuss whether some roles of the state are more transformative than others, and provide clues for policy implications, and a future research agenda. The concept developed in the paper contributes to a more differentiated understanding of the transformative roles of the state.
    Date: 2020
  46. By: Orsa Kekezi; Andres Ron Boschma
    Abstract: Loss of specific human capital is often identified as a mechanism for why displaced workers might experience permanent drops in earnings after job loss. Moreover, the existing research has argued that displaced workers who migrate out of their region of origin have lower earnings than those who do not. The purpose of this paper is to extend the discussion on returns to migration by accounting for the type of job people get and how related it is to their skills. Using an endogenous treatment model to control for selection bias in migration and career change, we compare displaced stayers with displaced movers in Sweden. Results show that migrants who get a job that matches their occupation- and industry-specific skills display the highest earnings compared to all displaced workers. If migration is combined with a job mismatch, negative returns to migration are instead observed. Given that job displacement is associated with high costs, understanding how the workers behave in the labor market gives insights on how to minimize the costs of losing a job for the individual, which in its turn creates implications for the society at large.
    Keywords: inter-regional migration, specific human capital, job match, displaced workers, skill relatedness
    JEL: R23 J24 J62
    Date: 2020–04
  47. By: Matz Dahlberg; Per-Anders Edin; Erik Gr\"onqvist; Johan Lyhagen; John \"Osth; Alexey Siretskiy; Marina Toger
    Abstract: Sweden has adopted far less restrictive social distancing policies than most countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses data on all mobile phone users, from one major Swedish mobile phone network, to examine the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak under the Swedish mild recommendations and restrictions regime on individual mobility and if changes in geographical mobility vary over different socio-economic strata. Having access to data for January-March in both 2019 and 2020 enables the estimation of causal effects of the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting a Difference-in-Differences research design. The paper reaches four main conclusions: (i) The daytime population in residential areas increased significantly (64 percent average increase); (ii) The daytime presence in industrial and commercial areas decreased significantly (33 percent average decrease); (iii) The distance individuals move from their homes during a day was substantially reduced (38 percent decrease in the maximum distance moved and 36 percent increase in share of individuals who move less than one kilometer from home); (iv) Similar reductions in mobility were found for residents in areas with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. These results show that mild government policies can compel people to adopt social distancing behavior.
    Date: 2020–04
  48. By: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Ken Teoh; Martín Uribe
    Abstract: Motivated by reports in the media suggesting unequal access to Covid-19 testing across incomes, we analyze zip-code level data on the number of Covid-19 tests, test results, and income per capita in New York City. We find that the number of tests administered is evenly distributed across income levels. In particular, the test distribution across income levels is significantly more egalitarian than the distribution of income itself: The ten percent of the city's population living in the richest zip codes received 11 percent of the Covid-19 tests and 29 percent of the city's income. The ten percent of the city's population living in the poorest zip codes received 10 percent of the tests but only 4 percent of the city's income. At the same time, we find significant disparity in the fraction of tests that come back negative for the Covid-19 disease across income levels: moving from the poorest zip codes to the richest zip codes is associated with an increase in the fraction of negative Covid-19 test results from 38 to 65 percent.
    JEL: I14 R1
    Date: 2020–04
  49. By: Wietschel, Martin; Burghard, Uta; Plötz, Patrick
    Abstract: Significant shares of the heavy-duty freight transport found on the roads in Baden-Wuerttemberg are transborder transportations. This working paper therefore focuses on a discussion of border crossings to neighboring countries (especially France, Switzerland, and Austria) in relation to catenary trucks and other alternative powertrains in heavy-duty road freight transport. This involved a one-day workshop with experts representing energy supply, freight transport and transport infrastructure from Baden-Wuerttemberg and its neighboring countries, which took place at the beginning of 2020. The workshop's objectives were to discuss practical experiences and pass them on to countries that have not yet taken action.
    Date: 2020
  50. By: Jennifer SUMNER (Ontario Institute for Studies in Education at the University of Toronto (Canada)); Derya TARHAN (Ontario Institute for Studies in Education (OISE) of the University of Toronto (Canada)); John Justin McMURTRY (Business and Society Program at York University (Toronto))
    Abstract: In the face of chronic food insecurity brought on by centuries of colonialism, some Indigenous communities in Canada are turning to the social and solidarity economy to craft their own solutions to hunger. This paper explores these solutions, using a case study of the Northern Manitoba Food, Culture and Community Collaborative (NMFCCC) to illustrate how they are helping to implement the second Sustainable Development Goal – zero hunger. Through local initiatives such as community gardens and greenhouses, co-operatives, community kitchens, school gardens, community-based food programs, food markets and public-sector procurement, they are also helping to implement other Sustainable Development Goals, while providing models that can be replicated in diverse communities. The emphasis on community ownership, control and benefits highlights the importance of a definition of the SSE that is based on community needs.
    Keywords: Community gardens and greenhouses; co-operatives; Indigenous food sovereignty; social and solidarity economy; zero hunger
    Date: 2020–01
  51. By: Guowei Cui; Vasilis Sarafidis; Takashi Yamagata
    Abstract: The present paper develops a new Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator for spatial, dynamic panel data models with interactive effects under large N and T asymptotics. For this class of models, the only approaches available in the literature are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. The approach put forward in this paper is appealing from both a theoretical and a practical point of view for a number of reasons. Firstly, the proposed IV estimator is linear in the parameters of interest and it is computationally inexpensive. Secondly, the IV estimator is free from asymptotic bias. In contrast, existing QML estimators suffer from incidental parameter bias, depending on the magnitude of unknown parameters. Thirdly, the IV estimator retains the attractive feature of Method of Moments estimation in that it can accommodate endogenous regressors, so long as external exogenous instruments are available. The IV estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as N, T → ∞, with N/T^2 → 0 and T /N^2 → 0. The proposed methodology is employed to study the determinants of risk attitude of banking institutions. The results of our analysis provide evidence that the more risksensitive capital regulation that was introduced by the Basel III framework in 2011 has succeeded in influencing banks' behaviour in a substantial manner.
    Keywords: Panel data, instrumental variables, state dependence, social interactions, common factors, large N and T asymptotics
    JEL: C33 C36 C38 C55
    Date: 2020
  52. By: Alje van Dam; Andres Gomez-Lievano; Frank Neffke; Koen Frenken
    Abstract: We propose a statistical framework to quantify location and co-location associations of economic activities using information-theoretic measures. We relate the resulting measures to existing measures of revealed comparative advantage, localization and specialization and show that they can all be seen as part of the same framework. Using a Bayesian approach, we provide measures of uncertainty of the estimated quantities. Furthermore, the information-theoretic approach can be readily extended to move beyond pairwise co-locations and instead capture multivariate associations. To illustrate the framework, we apply our measures to the co-location of occupations in US cities, showing the associations between different groups of occupations.
    Date: 2020–04
  53. By: Wittmann, Florian; Hufnagl, Miriam; Lindner, Ralf; Roth, Florian; Edler, Jakob
    Abstract: The goal to address broader societal problems by mission-oriented research and inno-vation policy has brought new demands for the governance and implementation to the forefront and led to a great diversity of missions. By developing a typology for the clas-sification of different types of missions, this working paper can serve as a first step for studying the impact of the missions of the German High-Tech Strategy 2025 (HTS). Combining existing literature on mission-oriented innovation policy with insights from governance structures, we identify four types of missions - two subtypes of transformer and accelerator missions each - and demonstrate that this typology can be successfully applied to the 12 missions of the German HTS 2025. Thereby, we contribute to a more fine-grained understanding of the different demands and challenges inherent to different missions and thus provide the opportunity for a systematic comparison and a reflection on the varying requirements for assessing the impact of mission-oriented policies.
    Date: 2020
  54. By: Luciano Lavecchia (Bank of Italy); Luigi Leva (Bank of Italy); David Loschiavo (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The Italian public guarantee scheme (Fondo di garanzia - FDG) is the main tool supporting SMEs’ access to credit. This work evaluates the impact of the regional laws limiting the FDG’s operations to loans guaranteed by mutual guarantee institutions. To this end, we exploit the regulations’ discontinuities that occurred in some Italian regions that have either abolished or introduced such a restriction. We study the effects of the regulation changes in a difference-in-differences setting where treated firms are located in regime switching regions and control firms are in neighbouring regions. We find that constraining access to the FDG’s publicly funded collateral to counter-guarantee schemes hampered SMEs’ access to finance overall. Removing the restriction increased both the number of firms with access to the FDG’s guarantees and the total size of the loans granted to treated SMEs of any size. Moreover, the relative cost of credit improved for treated firms. Conversely, the introduction of the restriction to counter-guarantees had mostly negative effects on the number, size and cost of loans granted to treated firms.
    Keywords: access to credit, public guarantees, mutual guarantee institutions
    JEL: H81 G21
    Date: 2020–04
  55. By: Sharat Ganapati; Woan Foong Wong; Oren Ziv
    Abstract: Entrepôts are hubs that facilitate trade between various origins and destinations. We study the role these hubs, and the networks they form, play in international trade. Using novel data, we trace the paths of containerized goods entering the United States. We show that the majority of trade is indirect and sent through a small number of entrepôts, resulting in lower transport costs through scale economies by using larger ships. We build a model of endogenous entrepôt formation incorporating route choice by exporters within a Ricardian setting. We use the model to estimate trade costs on each shipping leg and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate a leg-level scale elasticity. Counterfactuals opening the Arctic Passage and Brexit quantify the effects of both network spillovers and scale economies. We find that spillovers from the transportation network doubles baseline welfare gains, with scale economies further tripling them.
    Keywords: trade costs, scale, hubs, transport costs, transportation networks, international trade, shipping
    Date: 2020
  56. By: Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam
    Abstract: The growth of shared mobility services and enabling technologies, such as smartphone apps, is contributing to the commodification and aggregation of transportation services. This chapter reviews terms and definitions related to Mobility on Demand (MOD) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS), the mobility marketplace, stakeholders, and enablers. This chapter also reviews the U.S. Department of Transportation’s MOD Sandbox Program, including common opportunities and challenges, partnerships, and case studies for employing on-demand mobility pilots and programs. The chapter concludes with a discussion of vehicle automation and on-demand mobility including pilot projects and the potential transformative impacts of shared automated vehicles on parking, land use, and the built environment.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Mobility on demand, mobility as a service, shared mobility, automation, automated vehicles, shared automated vehicles, automated driving systems
    Date: 2020–03–12
  57. By: Cristina Bicchieri; Eugen Dimant; Simon Gaechter; Daniele Nosenzo
    Abstract: We study how an individual‘s compliance with social norms is inuenced by other actors‘ norm compliance. In a repeated non-strategic Take-or-Give donation experiment we show that giving is considered socially appropriate while taking is socially inappropriate. Observing norm violations erodes an individual‘s own norm compliance. We show that the erosion of norm compliance is led by a change in norm-related beliefs. This change has a major effect on individuals who initially obey the norm, driving them to non-compliance, whereas initially non-compliant individuals do not change their taking behavior. Erosion is halted when individuals have even minimal social proximity to those they observe: individuals now also pay attention to norm followers.
    Keywords: norm compliance, social norms, social proximity
    JEL: C92 D64 D90
    Date: 2020
  58. By: Ataeian, Shervin; Mostafavi, Alireza; Nabiloo, Roya
    Abstract: The fixed route shared taxi, known as Jitney, is one of the common modes in paratransit services and covers a significant proportion of daily trips in some developing countries, including Iran. Such system, despite its disadvantages to transportation networks, has always been the most feasible solution to overcome the shortcoming in public transit supply. As a result, it has formed users’ travel habits over the decades. Therefore, it is not possible to remove or replace Jitney lines with standard services suddenly but gradually. Unfortunately, there is a distinct lack of a comprehensive method to analyze and evaluate Jitney lines neither in the literature nor in practice. In this paper, first, to fill the gap in the literature, we develop a coherent framework to analyze the performance of fixed route shared taxi lines. This framework includes several indices that make it possible to rank and classify Jitney lines from different aspects. Second, to examine the applicability of the proposed framework, we apply it to the network of taxi lines in the metropolis of Tehran. The results prove that the framework is not only applicable in measuring the system performance, but it also provides decision-makers with decision criteria to choose improvement plans or alternatives.
    Keywords: Fixed Route Shared Taxi, Jitney, Paratransit, Performance Analysis, Performance Index, Decision Criteria.
    JEL: L91
    Date: 2020–03
  59. By: Hooijen, Inge (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, RS: SBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region, RS: FdR Institute ITEM); Poulissen, Davey (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Training and employment)
    Abstract: There is ample evidence from different research disciplines that location factors such as employment opportunities or the availability of amenities and facilities are a powerful predictor of settlement behaviour. Recent research suggests that citizens’ mean personality traits could be an additional predictor of where young people settle. We therefore explore 1) the extent to which recent graduates in the Netherlands are geographically clustered with respect to five different personality traits, 2) whether the geographical clustering of graduates is intensified as they grow older, 3) how regional environmental characteristics are related to personality traits, and 4) the extent to which personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Our results reveal a distinct geographical clustering of personality traits among the different regions in the Netherlands. We also show that this geographical clustering becomes more blurred as graduates age. The results furthermore show robust associations between personality traits and several environmental characteristics with respect to demographic, economic, health, political, sociocultural, crime, and religious outcomes. In addition, we show that personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Economic factors seem to have a larger impact in determining location choices than personality traits.
    JEL: J61 R23 D91
    Date: 2020–02–13
  60. By: Kevin Lang (Boston University); Kaiwen Leong (Nanyang Technological University); Huailu Li (Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics); Haibo Xu (Tongji University)
    Abstract: We study roughly 11,000 loans from unlicensed moneylenders to over 1,000 borrowers in Singapore and provide basic information about this understudied market. Borrowers frequently expect to repay late. While lenders do rely on additional punishments to enforce loans, the primary cost of not repaying on time is compounding of a very high interest rate. We develop a very simple model of the relational contract between loan sharks and borrowers and use it to predict the effect of a crackdown on illegal moneylending. Consistent with our model, the crackdown raised the interest rate and lowered the size of loans.
    Keywords: Illegal Lending, Enforcement, Relational Contract
    JEL: K42 L14
    Date: 2020–03
  61. By: Matthew S. Clancy; Paul Heisey; Yongjie Ji; GianCarlo Moschini
    Abstract: This chapter investigates the extent to which agricultural innovations draw on ideas originating outside of agriculture. We identify a large set of US patents for agricultural technologies granted between 1976 and 2018. To measure knowledge spillovers to these patents, we rely on three proxies: patent citations to other patents, patent citations to the scientific literature, and a novel text analysis to identify and track new ideas in the patent text. We find that more than half of knowledge flows originate outside of agriculture. The majority of these knowledge inflows, however, still originate in domains that are close to agriculture.
    JEL: O31 O34 Q16
    Date: 2020–04
  62. By: Christine Laudenbach; Benjamin Loos; Jenny Pirschel; Johannes Wohlfart
    Abstract: We use data from a German online brokerage and a survey to show that retail investors sharply reduce risk-taking in response to nearby firm bankruptcies, which are not predictive of returns. The effects on trading are spatially highly concentrated, immediate and not persistent. They seem to operate through more pessimistic expected returns and increased risk aversion and do not reflect wealth effects or changes in background risks. Investors learn about bankruptcies through immediate coverage in local newspapers. Our findings suggest that non-informative local experiences that make downside risks of stock investment more salient contribute to idiosyncratic short-term fluctuations in trading.
    Keywords: individual investors, risk-taking, trading, experiences
    JEL: D14 G11
    Date: 2020
  63. By: Dan Anderberg; Christina Olympiou
    Abstract: We study the relationship between a key early intervention policy designed to support families with children up to the age of four and the rate at which children are taken into social care. The gradual build-up of over 3,600 Sure Start Children’s Centres (SSCC), operated by Local Authorities across England, created large spatial and cohort variation in the provision of a range of services that include childcare, early education, health and parenting support. Local Authorities are also responsible for the safeguarding of children and about 25 children per 10,000 are taken into social care annually, in the majority of cases to protect them from abuse and neglect. We find that SSCC provision is associated with a higher rate of entry into care for children aged 0-4, but a lower rate of entry for children aged 5-9. The findings are consistent with the policy improving longer-term outcomes while identifying cases in urgent need of care.
    Keywords: social care for children, early intervention, abuse and neglect
    JEL: I38 J12 J13
    Date: 2020
  64. By: Zhe Wang (Department of Economics, University of Reading)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of shocks and labor market institutions on unemployment across the Euro Area (EA) from 1999 to 2013. Specifically, I apply an empirical methodology to identify the direct effects of shocks and labor market institutions on unemployment, on the one hand, and the indirect effects of labor market institutions on changing the transmission of shocks to unemployment, on the other hand. The shocks consist of: 1) total factor productivity (TFP) shocks, 2) the real long-term interest rate, 3) labor demand shocks, 4) ECB money supply shocks and 5) ECB unsystematic monetary policy shocks. The labor market institutions cover the unemployment benefit system, active labor market policies (ALMPs), employment protection laws (EPLs), the system of wage determination and the labor tax wedge. The results suggest that the real interest rate and labor demand shocks significantly affect the unemployment rate in the EA. As for labor market institutions, EPLs play a favorable role in reducing unemployment. In contrast, a higher tax wedge tends to have an adverse effect on unemployment, not only directly increasing unemployment but also indirectly amplifying the effects of shocks on unemployment.
    Keywords: Unemployment, Shocks, Labor market institutions, Interactions, Monetary policy
    JEL: E24 J08 E52 F45

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