nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒04‒27
sixty-four papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Universities’ global research ambitions and their localised effects By Morrison, Nicola; Szumilo, Nikodem
  2. "Revitalize or Stabilize": Does Community Development Financing Work? By Daniel R. Ringo
  3. Commuting and internet traffic congestion By Berliant, Marcus
  4. Urban population in Germany, 1500 - 1850 By Ulrich Pfister
  5. The Geography of Connectivity: Trails of Mobile Phone Data By Erlström, Andreas; Grillitsch, Markus; Hall, Ola
  6. Are New Shopping Centers Drivers of Development in Large Metropolitan Suburbs? The Interplay of Agglomeration and Competition Forces. By Mihaescu, Oana; Korpi, Martin; Öner, Özge
  7. Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations By Charles Ka Yui Leung; Joe Cho Yiu Ng; Edward Tang
  8. Does Domestic Violence Jeopardize the Learning Environment of Peers within the School? Peer Effects of Exposure to Domestic Violence in Urban Peru By Gutierrez, Italo A.; Molina, Oswaldo
  9. Labor Market Polarization and the Great Divergence: Theory and Evidence By Donald R. Davis; Eric Mengus; Tomasz K. Michalski
  10. Do Compulsory Schooling Laws Always Work? A Study of Youth Crime in Brazilian Municipalities By Nishijima, Marislei; Pal, Sarmistha
  11. What Explains the Post–2011 Trends of Longer Maturities and Rising Default Rates on Auto Loans? By Paul S. Calem; Chellappan Ramasamy; Jenna Wang
  12. Housing Policies Worldwide during Coronavirus Crisis: Challenges and Solutions By Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  13. Commuting and self-employment in Western Europe By Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto; Velilla, Jorge
  14. Entrepreneurship and the fight against poverty in US Cities By Lee, Neil; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  15. The Spillover Effects of Pollution: How Exposure to Lead Affects Everyone in the Classroom By Gazze, Ludovica; Persico, Claudia; Spirovska, Sandra
  16. Complementary Inter-Regional Linkages and Smart Specialization: an Empirical Study on European Regions By Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma
  17. Teacher Preferences, Working Conditions, and Compensation Structure By Johnston, Andrew C.
  18. It Takes a Village: The Economics of Parenting with Neighborhood and Peer Effects By Francesco Agostinelli; Matthias Doepke; Giuseppe Sorrenti; Fabrizio Zilibotti
  19. The effect of central government grants on local educational policy By Rune Borgan Reiling; Kari Vea Salvanes; Astrid Marie Jorde Sandsør; Bjarne Strøm
  20. Teaching ‘out of field’ in STEM subjects in Australia: Evidence from PISA 2015 By Shah, Chandra; Richardson, Paul; Watt, Helen
  21. Can ‘permission in principle’ for new housing in England increase certainty, reduce ‘planning risk’, and accelerate housing supply? By Gallent, Nick; de Magalhaes, Claudio; Trigo, Sonia Freire; Scanlon, Kathleen; Whitehead, Christine M E
  22. Avoiding Traffic Congestion Externalities? The Value of Urgency By Antonio Bento; Kevin Roth; Andrew R. Waxman
  23. The Impact of Attending An Independent Upper Secondary School: Evidence from Sweden Using School Ranking Data By Edmark, Karin; Persson, Lovisa
  24. Impacts of enterprise zones on local households in Vietnam By Vu, Tien; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  25. The speed of innovation diffusion in social networks By Arieli, Itai; Babichenko, Yakov; Peretz, Ron; Young, H. Peyton
  26. Multi-collège catchment areas in Paris: an effective tool for combating social segregation? By Julien Grenet; Youssef Souidi
  27. How teachers differ in their perceptions of leadership for learning: Clustering teacher data from TALIS 2018 By OECD
  28. What role does the housing market play for the transmission mechanism? By Wilhelmsson, Mats
  29. Lift the Ban? Initial Employment Restrictions and Refugee Labour Market Outcomes By Francesco Fasani; Tommaso Frattini; Luigi Minale
  30. The Impact of Voucher Schools: Evidence From Swedish Upper Secondary Schools By Edmark, Karin; Hussain, Iftikhar; Haelermans, Carla
  31. Crime Victimisation Over Time and Sleep Quality By Clark, Andrew E.; D'Ambrosio, Conchita; Zhu, Rong
  32. Sinking or swimming in the cluster labour pool? A firm-specific analysis of the effect of specialized labour By Nils Grashof
  33. It Takes a Village: The Economics of Parenting with Neighborhood and Peer Effects By Francesco Agostinelli; Matthias Doepke; Giuseppe Sorrenti; Fabrizio Zilibotti
  34. Social Distancing, Internet Access and Inequality By Lesley Chiou; Catherine Tucker
  35. Urbanization Policy and Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis of China’s Differential Hukou Reforms By Hsu, Wen-Tai; Ma, Lin
  36. Resilience in the periphery: What an agency perspective can bring to the table By Kurikka, Heli; Grillitsch, Markus
  37. Indebtedness and spending: what happens when the music stops? By Le Blanc, Julia; Lydon, Reamonn
  38. Urban nature as a source of resilience during social distancing amidst the coronavirus pandemic By Samuelsson, Karl; Barthel, Stephan; Colding, Johan; Macassa, Gloria; Giusti, Matteo
  39. Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China By Qiu, Yun; Chen, Xi; Shi, Wei
  40. Where are you? The problem of location during emergencies By Elena Lucchese
  41. Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship By Ajzenman, Nicolas; Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Guriev, Sergei
  42. Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting. By Massimo Bordignon; Matteo Gamalerio; Edoardo Slerca; Gilberto Turati
  43. Spatial aggregation bias in wage curve and NAWRU estimation By Damiaan Persyn
  44. How effective has been the Spanish lockdown to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces By Luis Orea; Inmaculada C. Álvarez
  45. Stated benefits from urban afforestation in an arid city: A contingent valuation in Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico By Muñoz-Pizza, Dalia M.; Villada-Canela, Mariana; Rivera-Castañeda, Patricia; Reyna-Carranza, Marco A.; Osornio-Vargas, Alvaro; Martínez-Cruz, Adan L.
  46. Minimum Wages and Firm-Level Employment in a Developing Country By Sjöholm, Fredrik
  47. Have Localities Shifted Away from Traditional Defined Benefit Plans? By Jean-Pierre Aubry; Kevin Wandrei
  48. Are Covid-19 Cases Independent of the City Sizes? By Aydogan, Yigit
  49. Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home By Callum J. Jones; Thomas Philippon; Venky Venkateswaran
  50. Sub-National Allocation of COVID-19 Tests: An Efficiency Criterion with an Application to Italian Regions By C. Baunez; Mickael Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Patrick Pintus; Miriam Teschl
  51. Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment By Pettersson-Lidbom, Per
  52. Is there a National Housing Market Bubble Brewing in the United States? By Gupta, Rangan; Ma, Jun; Theodoridis, Konstantinos; Wohar, Mark E
  53. Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during the Coronavirus Pandemic By Hunt Allcott; Levi Boxell; Jacob C. Conway; Matthew Gentzkow; Michael Thaler; David Y. Yang
  54. "Risk reference charts for speeding based on telematics information" By Montserrat Guillen; Ana M. Pérez-Marín; Manuela Alcañiz
  55. Redevelopment Option Value for Commercial Real Estate By Simon Büchler, Alex van de Minne, Olivier Schöni
  56. Helping State and Local Governments Stay Liquid By Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Matthew Lieber
  57. Local government fiscal operations in Nigeria By Ekpo Akpan H.; Ndebbio John E.U.
  58. Labor Demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims By Lisa B Kahn; Samuele Fabian Lange; David Wiczer
  59. Strategies to increase the take-up of social benefits. Evidence from a field experiment in a deeply vulnerable population By Alejandro Cid; José María Cabrera; Marianne Bernatzky; María Ramírez-Michelena; Magdalena Blanco
  60. The effects of supporting local business: evidence from the UK By Overman, Henry G.; Einiö, Elias
  61. Fiddling around the edges: mainstream policy responses to the housing crisis since 2016 By Robbins, Glyn
  62. The contribution of economic science to brownfield redevelopment: a review By Joaquin Ameller; Jean-Daniel Rinaudo; Corinne Merly
  63. The Economic Outcomes of an Ethnic Minority: The Role of Barriers By Kasir, Nitsa Kaliner; Yashiv, Eran
  64. Impacts of Urbanisation on Trust: Evidence from a Lab in the Field on a Natural Experiment By Elvis Cheng Xu

  1. By: Morrison, Nicola; Szumilo, Nikodem
    Abstract: The world's top universities compete for the best international students and staff whilst remaining socially, politically and economically intertwined with the cities that they are located in. This paper analyses this relationship through the lens of the housing market to show the impact of universities’ global research centres on local house price within five of UK's historic cities. To date, these complex effects have been largely ignored in local and regional modelling. By applying a novel spatio-temporal model, we find that the spatial house price effects are much more pronounced in Cambridge than that witnessed in the other comparable UK cities. This not only suggests the relationship between the university and city economy is more interrelated but that its research centres may create localised spill over effects on both businesses and residents. Whilst these relationships are likely to differ across locations, housing shortages remain a universal concern. This suggests that to sustaininternational competitiveness of cities requires sound planning and housing policies that support universities’ growth trajectories.
    Keywords: university growth; research centres; house prices; planning policy
    JEL: N0 Q15
    Date: 2019–06–01
  2. By: Daniel R. Ringo
    Abstract: Banks in the United States originate $100 billion in community development loans every year and hold a similar amount of community development investments on their balance sheets. A number of federal place-based policies encourage the provision of these loans and investments to promote growth, employment and the availability of affordable housing to disadvantaged communities. Research into the effectiveness of privately supplied community development financing has been hampered, however, by the lack of comprehensive data on banks' community development activities at a local level. Hand collected data from thousands of Community Reinvestment Act performance evaluations fill this gap. Using these data, the effect of the supply of community development funding on local economic outcomes is estimated. Endogeneity of community development financing to local demand factors is addressed, exploiting the fact that banks exhibit fixed tendencies to engage in community development financing across markets. Shifts in the share of local deposit markets toward banks with a greater tendency to supply community development loans are associated with subsequent expansion in total employment and wages paid. Estimates suggest $56,000 in community development lending is required to create one job, on net. There is no measurable effect on the supply of affordable housing or the growth of house prices. Counties experiencing a shift in local deposit market shares toward community development intensive banks were on similar pre-trends as the rest of the country in the years prior to the shift, as measured across a range of economic and credit market outcomes.
    Keywords: Community development; Community Reinvestment Act; Place based policies; Bank lending; Credit supply
    JEL: G21 G28 R11
    Date: 2020–04–15
  3. By: Berliant, Marcus
    Abstract: We examine the fine microstructure of commuting in a game-theoretic setting with a continuum of commuters. Commuters' home and work locations can be heterogeneous. A commuter transport network is exogenous. Traffic speed is determined by link capacity and by local congestion at a time and place along a link, where local congestion at a time and place is endogenous. The model can be reinterpreted to apply to congestion on the internet. We find sufficient conditions for existence of equilibrium, that multiple equilibria are ubiquitous, and that the welfare properties of morning and evening commute equilibria differ on a generalization of a directed tree.
    Keywords: Commuting; Internet traffic; Congestion externality; Efficient Nash equilibrium
    JEL: L86 R41
    Date: 2020–04–12
  4. By: Ulrich Pfister
    Abstract: In situations where few data are available to document economic activity, the size of the urban population is a valuable indicator for economic development and the spatial pattern of an economy. This study improves the basis for investigations into the quantitative urban history of Germany by constructing a novel database of the population size of 412 cities that had at least 5000 inhabitants between 1500 and 1850. Compared with earlier databases it uses a considerably larger body of sources, and it improves the resolution of data by interpolating and extrapolating annual series. The resulting series of total urban population is consistent with recent work on aggregate demographic trends in Germany. The trajectory of the urbanization rate shows that Germany began its transition from stagnation to growth around 1800, several decades before the onset of industrialization. Regional urbanization rates converged (rather than diverged) in 1815/19–1858, that is, during the transition to the first stage of industrialization. Discussion of individual regional histories suggests state formation, (proto-)industrialization and regional population density as possibly relevant determinants of urban growth in the area and time period studied.
    Keywords: Urban growth, economic development, economic demography
    JEL: N13 N33 N93 O47
    Date: 2020–04
  5. By: Erlström, Andreas (Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Hall, Ola (Lund University)
    Abstract: Connectivity between and within places is one of the cornerstones of human geography. However, the data and methodologies used to capture connectivity are limited due to the difficulty in gathering and analysing detailed observations in time and space. Mobile phone data potentially offers a rich and unprecedented source of data, which is exhaustive in time and space closely following movements and partly communication activities of individuals. This paper discusses the state-of-the-art in the analysis of mobile phone data, identifies methodological challenges, elaborates on key findings for geography, and outlines opportunities for future research on the geography of connectivity.
    Keywords: Connectivity; mobile phone data; human mobility; social networks; regional development
    JEL: B40 J60 O18 R12
    Date: 2020–04–14
  6. By: Mihaescu, Oana (HUI Research); Korpi, Martin (The Ratio Institute); Öner, Özge (University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: We investigate to which extent shopping centers drive local economic development by studying how distance to newly established shopping centers affects the performance of incumbent firms, located in the suburbs of the three Swedish major metropolitan areas Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö, 2000-2016. We use a regression setup with around 27,000 firm-year observations and explore the possible heterogeneity imposed on the results from two main elements of spatial economics theory: the size of the new retail area and the distance from the new retail area to the analyzed incumbents. We observe a clear difference in the direction of the effects of large versus small shopping centers. While competition forces are much stronger in the case of the establishment of large shopping centers, yielding a negative 5% on incumbent firm revenue and negative 3% on firm employment, results indicate the opposite pattern for smaller shopping centers; with firm revenue and firm employment increasing 4% and 3%, respectively. Moreover, we also observe that both agglomeration and competition effects attenuate sharply with distance from the new entrant, confirming one of the central premises of retail location theory. Finally, we observe that the geographical scope of the effects is much wider in the case of larger shopping centers, with estimates becoming statistically insignificant at about 9-10 km from the new entry, as compared to 3-4 km in the case of smaller retail centers.
    Keywords: Shopping centers; firm performance; retail location; agglomeration effects; competition; attenuation of effects
    JEL: D22 L25 P25 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–04–14
  7. By: Charles Ka Yui Leung; Joe Cho Yiu Ng; Edward Tang
    Abstract: The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper argues that the commonly used house price-to-income ratio may be misleading in an economy with almost half of the population living in either public rental housing or subsidized ownership. Moreover, we re-focus on the relationships between economic fundamentals and the housing market of Hong Kong. While the aggregate GDP, population and longevity continue to grow, the real wage and household income fall behind. The trend component of the real GDP growth suffers a permanent downward shift after the first quarter of 1989 (a “political scar”). The trend component of real wage growth is close to zero, and the counterpart of real consumption and real investment decline steadily. Meanwhile, the trend component of the real housing rent and price display patterns that decouple from the macroeconomic variables. We also discuss the directions for future research.
    Keywords: wage index and household income; time series decomposition; migration; structural break; housing demand
    JEL: E20 J01 R0
    Date: 2020–04–14
  8. By: Gutierrez, Italo A. (RAND); Molina, Oswaldo (Universidad del Pacifico)
    Abstract: This study builds on the findings of Carrell and Hoekstra (2010, 2018) by exploring the peer effects of domestic violence exposure over the academic attainment of secondary school students in Peru. However, we also study these peer effects over a novel set of outcomes: internalizing behaviors and forms of violence at school. Our results show that being in a classroom with peers exposed to domestic violence leads to increased dropout and school mobility rates; increased levels of depression, isolation, victimization from bullying and attitudes towards violence at school; and lower verbal and math test scores. We also find no evidence that internalizing behaviors and forms of violence at school constitute mediators through which peer exposure to domestic violence affects test scores.
    Keywords: domestic violence, peer effects, bullying, education, internalizing behaviors
    JEL: D62 I21 J12 J13
    Date: 2020–04
  9. By: Donald R. Davis; Eric Mengus; Tomasz K. Michalski
    Abstract: In recent decades, middle-paid jobs have declined, replaced by a mix of high and low-paid jobs. This is labor market polarization. At the same time, initially skilled and typically larger cities have become even more skilled relative to initially less skilled and typically smaller cities. This is the great divergence. We develop a theory that links these two phenomena. We draw on existing models of polarization and heterogeneous labor in spatial equilibrium, adding to these a sharper interaction of individual- and city-level comparative advantage. We then confront the predictions of the theory with detailed data on occupational growth for a sample of 117 French cities. We find, consistent with our theory, that middle-paid jobs decline most sharply in larger cities; that these lost jobs are replaced two-to-one by high-paid jobs in the largest cities and two-to-one by low-paid jobs in the smallest cities; and that the lost middle-paid jobs are concentrated in an upper tier in the large cities and a lower tier in the smaller cities.
    JEL: J21 R12 R13
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Nishijima, Marislei (University of Sao Paulo); Pal, Sarmistha (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: We examine if compulsory schooling laws (CSL) necessarily lower crimes. We focus on violent youth crime (homicides by assault and guns) among 15-19 years age group in all Brazilian municipalities over 2000-13, taking advantage of the 2009 Brazilian Constitutional Amendment that required introduction of compulsory high schooling of 15-17-year-olds by 2016. Only about 53% municipalities adopted the Amendment by 2013. Difference-in-difference estimates with municipality fixed effects to account for the endogenous adoption of the Amendment by municipalities show small treatment effects for homicides, but insignificant effects for homicide rates in the full sample. In the absence of any significant increase in income/employment among this age group, we attribute this to the incapacitation effect of CSL, which was, however, weakened by overcrowding in day and night schools in treated municipalities after 2009. In contrast, poorer treated municipalities witnessed increased class size, worse school performance and increased crime too. The crime reduction effects of CSL thus crucially depend on whether/how it affects class size and school quality especially in less promising jurisdictions.
    Keywords: violent youth crime, compulsory schooling law, Constitutional Amendment 59, school quality, difference in differences model, endogenous adoption, Brazil
    JEL: H41 I21 K30 O15
    Date: 2020–03
  11. By: Paul S. Calem; Chellappan Ramasamy; Jenna Wang
    Abstract: This paper quantifies relationships of long-term auto borrowing and auto-loan default to observable borrower characteristics and economic variables. We also quantify the residual components of the trends in long-term borrowing and delinquency not attributable to identifiable factors. Second, our paper provides new evidence on the relationship between longer-term borrowing and auto-loan default risk. We find that observable factors associated with the choice of a long loan term usually indicate an increased risk of default. We also find that the increasing share of long-term loans and the rising frequency of auto-loan default are mostly attributable by nonspecific, year-of-origination (fixed) effects rather than factors observable from our data or observable to lenders. Moreover, although borrowers opting for long loan terms are more likely to default in most comparisons, the increasing share of borrowers selecting a long loan term between 2011 and 2016 did not materially contribute to the rise in default rates. Overall, our analysis highlights the role of unobserved borrower characteristics in driving the recent trends in long-term borrowing and default.
    Keywords: longer-term borrowings; census tract; observable characteristics; default risk; mortgage; unemployment; student loans; household debt; auto lenders; credit cards; longer maturities; HELOC; origination vintages; auto loans
    JEL: C23 G21 D12
    Date: 2020–04–06
  12. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
    Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic, which began in December 2019 and is currently spreading rapidly around the world, is having a noticeable impact on the economy and thus also on the real estate market. Since the measures to curb the spread are causing economic activities to decline massively, small and medium-sized companies in the service, hospitality, and transport sectors in particular, but the self-employed as well, are often unable to meet their short-term obligations, such as rents, loan interest, and labor costs, and are thus existentially at risk. Private tenants are also affected if they receive no or significantly less income due to the containment measures. Suggested and implemented measures aim to help commercial and private tenants and property owners in these difficult times as unbureaucratically as possible. Here, we present in detail the plans and actual measures undertaken worldwide.
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto; Velilla, Jorge
    Abstract: This paper explores the commuting behavior of workers in Western European countries, with a focus on the differences in commuting time between employees and the self-employed in these countries. Using data from the last wave of the European Working Conditions Survey (2015), we analyze the commuting behavior of workers, finding that male and female self-employed workers devote 14% and 20% less time to commuting than their employee counterparts, respectively. Furthermore, differences in commuting time between employees and self-employed females depend on the degree of urbanization of the worker’s residential location, as the difference in commuting time between the two groups of female workers is greater in rural areas, in comparison to workers living in urban areas. By analyzing differences in commuting time between groups of European workers, our analysis may serve to guide future planning programs.
    Keywords: Commuting time,European Working Conditions Survey,Self-employed workers,Employees
    JEL: R40 O57
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Lee, Neil; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: Entrepreneurship is sometimes portrayed as a cure-all solution for poverty reduction. Proponents argue it leads to job creation, higher incomes, and lower poverty rates in the cities in which it occurs. Others, by contrast, posit that many entrepreneurs are actually creating low-productivity firms serving local markets. Yet, despite this debate, little research has considered the impact of entrepreneurship on poverty in cities. This paper addresses this gap using a panel of US cities for the period between 2005 and 2015. We hypothesise that the impact of entrepreneurship depends on whether it occurs in tradeable sectors – and, therefore, is more likely to have positive local multiplier effects – or non-tradable sectors, which may saturate local markets. We find that entrepreneurship in tradeables reduces poverty and increases incomes for non-entrepreneurs. The result is confirmed using an instrumental variable approach, employing the inheritance of entrepreneurial traits as an instrument. In contrast, while there are some economic benefits from non-tradeable entrepreneurship, we find these are not large enough to reduce poverty.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; Poverty; Cities; Economic development; USA
    JEL: M13 J31 J21 O18 R11
    Date: 2020–04–09
  15. By: Gazze, Ludovica (University of Chicago); Persico, Claudia (American University); Spirovska, Sandra (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: Evidence shows that lead-exposed children are more disruptive and have lower achievement. However, we know less about how lead-exposed children affect the learning environment of their classroom peers. We estimate these spillover effects using new data on children's blood lead levels (BLLs) matched to all education data in North Carolina. We compare siblings who attend the same school, but whose school-grade cohorts differ in the proportion of children with elevated BLLs. We find that having more lead-exposed peers is associated with lower test scores and graduation rates, increased suspensions and dropping out of school, and a decrease in college intentions.
    Keywords: pollution, education, health, peers
    JEL: Q53 I24 I14
    Date: 2020–04
  16. By: Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma
    Abstract: Regional capabilities are regarded a pillar of Smart Specialization Strategy (S3). There is yet little focus in S3 policy on the role of inter-regional linkages. Our study on 292 NUTS2 regions in Europe finds that inter-regional linkages have a positive effect on the probability of regions to diversify, especially in peripheral regions. What matters is not being connected to other regions per se but being connected to regions that provide complementary capabilities. Finally, we propose a new indicator that enables regions to identify other regions as strategic partners in their S3 policy, depending on the presence of complementary capabilities in other regions.
    Keywords: Smart Specialization, relatedness, inter-regional linkages, regional diversification, complementary capabilities
    JEL: O25 O38 R11
    Date: 2020–04
  17. By: Johnston, Andrew C. (University of California, Merced)
    Abstract: Improving schools depends on attracting high-caliber teachers and increasing retention, both made possible by appealing to teacher preferences. I deploy a discrete-choice experiment in a setting where teachers have reason to reveal their preferences. There are three main findings: (1) I calculate willingness-to-pay for a series of workplace attributes including salary structure, retirement benefits, performance pay, class size, and time-to-tenure. (2) Highly rated teachers have stronger preferences for schools offering performance pay, which may be used to differentially attract and retain them. (3) Under various criteria, schools seem to underpay in salary and performance pay while overpaying in retirement benefits.
    Keywords: teachers, labor market, achievement, retention, selection
    JEL: I20 J32 J45 M50
    Date: 2020–04
  18. By: Francesco Agostinelli (University of Pennsylvania); Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University); Giuseppe Sorrenti (University of Amsterdam); Fabrizio Zilibotti (Yale University)
    Abstract: As children reach adolescence, peer interactions become increasingly central to their development, whereas the direct influence of parents wanes. Nevertheless, parents may continue to exert leverage by shaping their children’s peer groups. We study interactions of parenting style and peer effects in a model where children’s skill accumulation depends on both parental inputs and peers, and where parents can affect the peer group by restricting who their children can interact with. We estimate the model and show that it can capture empirical patterns regarding the interaction of peer characteristics, parental behavior, and skill accumulation among US high school students. We use the estimated model for policy simulations. We find that interventions (e.g., busing) that move children to a more favorable neighborhood have large effects but lose impact when they are scaled up because parents’ equilibrium responses push against successful integration with the new peer group.
    Keywords: busing, neighborhood effects, peer effects, skill development
    JEL: J13 J24 I24 J62
    Date: 2020–04
  19. By: Rune Borgan Reiling (Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU)); Kari Vea Salvanes (Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU)); Astrid Marie Jorde Sandsør (Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU)); Bjarne Strøm (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: The use of intergovernmental grants in educational policies may give rise to a conflict between gains attributable to local flexibility and central government’s intention to narrow gaps in school spending and resource use across local jurisdictions. This paper estimates the impact on school resources of a Norwegian central government grant intended to decrease the student-teacher ratio (group size) in primary school (grades 1-4). The grant was given to the 100 municipalities with the highest student-teacher ratio out of more than 400 municipalities. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the grant did not have the intended effect of reducing the actual group size. Our results suggest that strong enforcement mechanisms are necessary for earmarked grants to affect local allocation of resources as intended by central governments, although this may come at the cost of reducing local flexibility.
    Keywords: Central government grants, school policy; teacher density
    Date: 2020–04–13
  20. By: Shah, Chandra; Richardson, Paul; Watt, Helen
    Abstract: Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education is a critical part of a modern education system. Motivating students to learn STEM subjects is however a challenge. Teachers have a critical role in motivating students but to do this effectively they need to have appropriate subject matter knowledge. Data from PISA 2015 show a substantial proportion of teachers in Australian schools are teaching STEM subjects ‘out-of-field’, which is that they do not have the qualifications to teach these subjects. This paper examines the effects of individual teacher characteristics and school context on of out-of-field teaching in STEM subjects. In particular, it examines the role of school autonomy and staff shortage in this. The results show these two variables have a strong association with out-of-field teaching, however, other factors either mediate or confound their effects. A full understanding of the results requires knowing the role of school funding and school budgets in out-of-field teaching. While we do not have direct measures of these in the data, we can infer their likely roles through the effects of other factors, such as school sector and education level of parents of students in the school, in the model.
    Keywords: out-of-field teaching,teacher supply and demand,multi-level logit model
    JEL: C25 I22 I24 J23 J24
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Gallent, Nick; de Magalhaes, Claudio; Trigo, Sonia Freire; Scanlon, Kathleen; Whitehead, Christine M E
    Abstract: In this article we examine the probable impact of moving towards ‘up front’ planning permission for housing schemes in England, on development pace and future housing supply. That examination draws on interviews and focus groups with planning professionals, house builders, land promoters and others involved in land development. We begin by exploring the apparent effect of planning and ‘regulatory risk’ on development, before examining strategies, including upfront ‘permission in principle’ (PiP), that claim the potential to reduce that risk and deliver greater certainty for the development sector. The broader focus for this article is how those compliance-based strategies might operate in England’s otherwise discretionary planning system, in which the power to scrutinise and make decisions rests with local government and elected politicians, and what benefits they might bring.
    Keywords: Planning risk; housing; UK; Permission in principle; discretionary planning
    JEL: Q15 G32
    Date: 2019–10–16
  22. By: Antonio Bento; Kevin Roth; Andrew R. Waxman
    Abstract: In Becker (1965) and neoclassical microeconomic theory the value of time is a constant fraction of the hourly wage. When taken to data, however, this value departs from theoretical predictions, and appears to vary with the amount of time saved. By observing drivers on freeways opting to enter toll lanes with high-frequency, time-varying prices that secure a minimum level-of-service, we uncover a new and fundamental aspect of preferences for travel time savings related to urgency. The presence of preferences for urgency, which reflect the fact that individuals often face discrete penalties for being late, allows us to reconcile the pattern observed in the data with neoclassical theory. Using a rich, repeated-transaction data and individual-level hedonic estimation, we show that the value of urgency accounts for 87 percent of total willingness-to-pay for time savings. As a result, ignoring the value of urgency in cost-benefit analysis severely underestimates the true value of time savings that projects deliver, as such omission will typically ignore non-trivial welfare gains to a potentially large number of individuals.
    JEL: D47 D61 D62 H23 L51 L91 Q58 R41
    Date: 2020–04
  23. By: Edmark, Karin (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Persson, Lovisa (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive study on how attending a Swedish Independent upper secondary school affects students’ academic and short-term post-secondary outcomes. Beyond having access to population registers that measure school attendance and student outcomes, we are able to control for student preferences for independent provision, as stated in school application forms. The results from a CEM/VAM approach suggest a positive independent school effect on: final GPA, test results in English and Swedish, the likelihood of graduating on time, and attending post secondary education. However, we also find a larger discrepancy between the final grade and the standardized test result among the independent school students, in a way that accords with more lenient grading practices among independent schools. Results from a difference- in difference analysis around admission thresholds yielded no additional insights, due to imprecise estimates.
    Keywords: Private provision; mixed markets; voucher school reform; upper secondary education
    JEL: H44 I21 I26 I28
    Date: 2020–04–16
  24. By: Vu, Tien; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: Based on the “winner-loser” scheme, we examine the possible impacts of enterprise zones (EZs) on local Vietnamese households between 2002 and 2008, using differences-in-differences and a panel-event study. We layer four waves of household surveys using a census of EZs in 2007, based on the same commune identity for our household and individual analyses. Within five years of EZ establishment, we find they are associated with higher household incomes, an increase in private property prices, and an increase in working hours. However, we do not find a significant impact on household living expenditure or school attendance/working probabilities among members aged between 7 and 17 years. Neither do we find a significant impact on health outcomes.
    Keywords: Enterprise zone; Health; Household; Income; School Attendance; Vietnam
    JEL: D1 O12 O18 P36
    Date: 2020–04–06
  25. By: Arieli, Itai; Babichenko, Yakov; Peretz, Ron; Young, H. Peyton
    Abstract: New ways of doing things often get started through the actions of a few innovators, then diffuse rapidly as more and more people come into contact with prior adopters in their social network. Much of the literature focuses on the speed of diffusion as a function of the network topology. In practice, the topology may not be known with any precision, and it is constantly in flux as links are formed and severed. Here, we establish an upper bound on the expected waiting time until a given proportion of the population has adopted that holds independently of the network structure. Kreindler and Young (2014) demonstrated such a bound for regular networks when agents choose between two options: the innovation and the status quo. Our bound holds for directed and undirected networks of arbitrary size and degree distribution, and for multiple competing innovations with different payoffs.
    Keywords: Innovation diffusion; social networks; speed of equilibrium convergence
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2020–03–01
  26. By: Julien Grenet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Youssef Souidi (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)
    Abstract: Collèges (middle schools) in Paris have some of the highest levels of social segregation in France due to wide social contrasts between geographically close neighbourhoods and to a large number of pupils from the most privileged backgrounds attending private schools. Because of this, the Council of Paris voted in January 2017 to create three two-collège catchment areas in the 18th and 19th arrondissements. The scheme consisted of defining joint catchment areas (secteurs) for several middle schools in order to make their intakes socially more diverse. The provisional results for the first year of the experiment (2017-2018) are encouraging. Two of the three catchment areas achieved their objective of greater social diversity and also reduced the number of pupils enrolling in private schools. Although in the short term the social composition of the schools in the third catchment area was not rebalanced by the scheme, from the results of the assessment we can identify several ways to improve this.
    Date: 2018–09
  27. By: OECD
    Abstract: When surveying teachers on the multiple domains of leadership for learning, teachers cluster into three different patterns of responses correlated with teaching experience, job satisfaction, and workload stress. Examining these clusters of teacher response patterns, and how they relate to the other teachers in the school and the principal, provides a unique way of viewing the school climate around instructional improvement, and allows possible different options for policy or professional development to be considered.
    Date: 2020–04–22
  28. By: Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The main objective is to answer the question of what role does the housing market play for the transmission mechanism and especially is the impact constant over time. The research question also includes analyzing the importance of the housing market for the transmission mechanism. We estimate an eight-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the Swedish economy over the period 1993 and 2018, covering both the internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crises in 2008. The results indicate that interest rates have both a direct effect on housing prices and an indirect impact through the bank lending channel. Overtime has the traditional interest rate channel importance has been stable. On the other hand, the role of the bank lending channel has increased over time. Household debt has increased substantially in Sweden and elsewhere. That means that the interest rate sensitivity in society has increased. Based on the results, it is possible to evaluate and forecast potential house price effects (both direct and indirect) when the interest rate changes.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; transmission mechanism; bank lending; house prices; structured VAR; Granger causality
    JEL: C54 E52 E63 R31 R32
    Date: 2020–04–14
  29. By: Francesco Fasani (Queen Mary University London); Tommaso Frattini (University of Milan); Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This article investigates the medium to long-term effects on refugee labour market outcomes of the temporary employment bans being imposed in many countries on recently arrived asylum seekers. Using a newly collected dataset covering almost 30 years of employment restrictions together with individual data for refugees entering European countries between 1985 and 2012, our empirical strategy exploits the geographical and temporal variation in employment bans generated by staggered introduction and removal coupled with frequent changes at the intensive margin. We find that exposure to a ban at arrival reduces refugee employment probability in postban years by 15%, an impact driven primarily by lower labour market participation. These effects are not mechanical, since we exclude refugees who may still be subject to employment restrictions, are non-linear in ban length, confirming that the very first months following arrival play a key role in shaping integration prospects, and last up to 10 years post arrival. We further demonstrate that the detrimental effects of employment bans are concentrated among less educated refugees, translate into lower occupational quality, and seem not to be driven by selective migration. Our causal estimates are robust to several identification tests accounting for the potential endogeneity of employment ban policies, including placebo analysis of non-refugee migrants and an instrumental variable strategy. To illustrate the costs of these employment restrictions, we estimate a EUR 37.6 billion output loss from the bans imposed on asylum seekers who arrived in Europe during the so-called 2015 refugee crisis.
    Date: 2020–04–15
  30. By: Edmark, Karin (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Hussain, Iftikhar (Department of Economics, University of Sussex); Haelermans, Carla (Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA), School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Empirical studies investigating the impact of private voucher schools on student outcomes have focused on a number of mechanisms, including productivity and competitive effects. Arguably, the possibility that these voucher schools may provide greater variety, in terms of education options or tracks remains an understudied area. This paper exploits the rapid expansion of private academic and vocational track schools in Sweden, to address this question. We uncover new evidence that the introduction of private voucher schools induced greater vocational education participation, and not simply a substitution of public for private vocational schools. In effect, private school penetration lead to a switch away from academic tracks, including both science and social science, in favour of vocational options. We then ask what impact inducing greater participation in vocational education had on short- and medium-term outcomes, including GPA, on-time graduation from high school, university participation and field of study at university. We discuss other possible mechanisms, including changes in peer and teacher quality.
    Keywords: private provision; independent schools; voucher school reform; vocational education; upper secondary education
    JEL: H44 I21 I26 I28
    Date: 2020–04–16
  31. By: Clark, Andrew E.; D'Ambrosio, Conchita; Zhu, Rong
    Abstract: We here consider the relationship between the individual time profile of crime victimisation and sleep quality. Sleep quality worsens with contemporaneous crime victimisation, with physical violence having a larger effect than property crime. But crime history also matters, and past victimisation experience continues to reduce current sleep quality. Last, there is some evidence that the order of victimisation spells plays a role: consecutive years of crime victimisation affect sleep quality more adversely than the same number of years when not contiguous.
    Keywords: Crime, time, physical violence, property crimes, sleep quality
    Date: 2019–01
  32. By: Nils Grashof (Centre for Regional and Innovation Economics, University of Bremen, Germany)
    Abstract: Human resources are a key factor for firm success, particularly nowadays when most industrial economies face an increasing shortage of qualified labour. With their pooled labour markets, regional clusters have been shown to be a preferable location for firms in order to satisfy their demand for skilled employees. Nevertheless, in light of possible disadvantages (e.g. labour poaching) and the broad field of studies dealing with firm performance differentials, the prevalent assumption that all companies profit equally from the specialized labour pool in clusters must be questioned. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the conditions and mechanisms through which companies located in clusters can gain, in terms of innovativeness, from the specialized labour pool. By synthesizing theoretical streams from the strategic management (e.g. resource-based view) and the economic geography literature (e.g. cluster approach), variables from three different levels of analysis (micro-level, meso-level and macro- level) are examined separately as well as interactively. Apart from revealing that being located in a cluster indeed increases on average firm innovativeness, one of the central findings is that firms benefit unequally within the cluster environment depending on the specific firm-level, cluster-level, industry-/market-level conditions and their respective interactions.
    Keywords: specialized labour pool, cluster, agglomeration, firm performance differentials, innovation
    JEL: C31 J24 L22 O30 R10 R23
    Date: 2020–04–12
  33. By: Francesco Agostinelli (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Matthias Doepke (Department of Economics, Northwestern University); Giuseppe Sorrenti (Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam); Fabrizio Zilibotti (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: As children reach adolescence, peer interactions become increasingly central to their development, whereas the direct influence of parents wanes. Nevertheless, parents may continue to exert leverage by shaping their children’s peer groups. We study interactions of parenting style and peer effects in a model where children’s skill accumulation depends on both parental inputs and peers, and where parents can affect the peer group by restricting who their children can interact with. We estimate the model and show that it can capture empirical patterns regarding the interaction of peer characteristics, parental behavior, and skill accumulation among US high school students. We use the estimated model for policy simulations. We ï¬ nd that interventions (e.g., busing) that move children to a more favorable neighborhood have large effects but lose impact when they are scaled up because parents’ equilibrium responses push against successful integration with the new peer group.
    Date: 2020–04
  34. By: Lesley Chiou; Catherine Tucker
    Abstract: This paper measures the role of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on an individual's ability to self-isolate during a global pandemic. We use data that tracks 20 million mobile devices and their movements across physical locations, and whether the mobile devices leave their homes that day. We show that while income is correlated with differences in the ability to stay at home, the unequal diffusion of high-speed Internet in homes across regions drives much of this observed income effect. We examine compliance with state-level directives to avoid leaving your home. Devices in regions with either high-income or high-speed Internet are less likely to leave their homes after such a directive. However, the combination of having both high income and high-speed Internet appears to be the biggest driver of propensity to stay at home. Our results suggest that the digital divide---or the fact that income and home Internet access are correlated---appears to explain much inequality we observe in people's ability to self-isolate.
    JEL: L96 L98 M15
    Date: 2020–04
  35. By: Hsu, Wen-Tai (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Ma, Lin (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban mi-gration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size and by the coastal-inland di-vide. We find a striking contrast in the migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to the coastal urban region in 2005, but more to the inland urban region in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China being divided into the rural, coastal urban, and inland urban regions. We find that alternative urbanization policies that are not differential and that are more laissez-faire would substantially improve national welfare, in magnitudes that are comparable to the welfare gains from the trade liberalization that China has put in place in the past.
    Keywords: Hukou system; household registration system; differential reform; urbanization policy; economic development; spatial quantitative analysis
    Date: 2020–03–01
  36. By: Kurikka, Heli (Tampere University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: In this chapter, we study the relationship between regional economic resilience and agency. Especially since the 2008 recession, regional resilience has raised a lot of interest in economic geography. However, the resilience research has focused mostly on the structural perspective and the role of agency has gained less attention. Intentional and purposeful human actions can have an effect on regional development trajectories especially in a crisis situation. Economic crises typically are critical junctures where a variety of paths are possible and where the choices, strategies, and actions may have a decisive effect on the future. We are interested in the influence of change agency on different kinds of resilience outputs, especially regional adaptability. Different types of change agency play their own roles in constructing regional resilience. Innovative entrepreneurs are transforming or creating new economic activities through the novel combination of knowledge and resources. Institutional entrepreneurs are actors that challenge and transform existing rules and practices or aim at creating new ones. Finally, place-based leaders are co-ordinating and mobilising different actors and resources for the collective pursuit. Constructing regional resilience calls for this ‘trinity of change agency’. We provide empirical illustrations of our arguments from two peripheral Finish regions that went through similar crises but emerged differently from it. Our findings indicate that the interplay of different types of change agency has a significant role in regional processes of adaptation and adaptability of the region.
    Keywords: resilience; adaptability; change agency; periphery; non-core regions; regional development; crisis; regional policy
    JEL: O30 P48 R10 R58
    Date: 2020–04–14
  37. By: Le Blanc, Julia; Lydon, Reamonn
    Abstract: We analyse the effect of shocks to housing wealth and income before and after the Great Recession. We combine datasets containing information on expenditure, income, wealth and debt in a synthetic panel to understand how household indebtedness affects the response to income and wealth shocks. We find evidence for both a housing wealth effect and income shocks depressing household consumption during the crisis in Ireland. The long recovery of consumption is also related to high levels of indebtedness at the onset of the crisis. Households who entered the crisis with more debt are significantly more sensitive to changes in their income. In this way, household balance sheets can be an important amplification mechanism for aggregate shocks. JEL Classification: D14, D31, E21, H31
    Keywords: expenditure, housing, income, wealth
    Date: 2020–04
  38. By: Samuelsson, Karl; Barthel, Stephan; Colding, Johan; Macassa, Gloria; Giusti, Matteo
    Abstract: The 2020 coronavirus pandemic caused countries across the world to implement measures of social distancing to curb spreading of COVID-19. The large and sudden disruptions to everyday life that result from this are likely to impact well-being, particularly among urban populations that live in dense settings with limited public space. In this paper, we argue that during these extraordinary circumstances, urban nature offers resilience for maintaining well-being in urban populations, while enabling social distancing. We discuss more generally the critical role of urban nature in times of crisis. Cities around the world need to take the step into the 21st century by accepting crises as a new reality and finding ways to function during these disturbances. Thus, maintaining or increasing space for nature in cities and keeping it accessible to the public should be part of the sustainability agenda, aiming simultaneously to strive towards SDG 3 (good health and well-being), and SDG 11 (sustainable and resilient cities).
    Date: 2020–04–11
  39. By: Qiu, Yun; Chen, Xi; Shi, Wei
    Abstract: This paper models the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29 in 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics two weeks ago are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population out ow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.
    Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus,transmission,quarantine
    JEL: I18 I12 C23
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Elena Lucchese
    Abstract: Rapid response to an emergency call is crucial to its outcome, but little is known about the determinants of response time. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, it is shown that the time it takes to find the patient's location accounts for 30% of response time. The analysis compares the time required to cover each segment of the ambulance trip - from the hospital to the patient's location and then back to the hospital - according to whether the patient is at home or at some other location that responders can more easily locate. The magnitude of the effect does not appear to be affected by the distance travelled. It is suggested that introducing a technology that gives care providers precise information about a patient's location would substantially improve performance at a minimal cost.
    Keywords: Ambulance, Emergency, Organizational Performance, Response Time.
    JEL: D29 D90 I12 I18 R41
    Date: 2020–04
  41. By: Ajzenman, Nicolas (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV); Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Guriev, Sergei (Sciences Po, Paris)
    Abstract: Does exposure to mass migration affect economic behavior, attitudes and beliefs of natives in transit countries? In order to answer this question, we use a unique locality-level panel from the 2010 and 2016 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey and data on the main land routes taken by migrants in 18 European countries during the refugee crisis in 2015. To capture the exogenous variation in natives' exposure to transit migration, we construct an instrument that is based on the distance of each locality to the optimal routes that minimize travelling time between the main origin and destination cities. We first show that the entrepreneurial activity of natives falls considerably in localities that are more exposed to mass transit migration, compared to those located further away. We then explore the mechanisms and find that our results are likely to be explained by a decrease in the willingness to take risks as well as in the confidence in institutions. We also document an increase in the anti-migrant sentiment while attitudes towards other minorities remained unchanged. We rule out the possibility of out-migration of natives or of trade-related shocks (potentially confounded with the mass-transit migration) affecting our results. Using locality-level luminosity data, we also rule out any effect driven by changes in economic activity. Finally, we find no statistically significant effects on other labor market outcomes, such as unemployment or labor force participation.
    Keywords: migrant routes, entrepreneurship, public attitudes, political instability
    JEL: F22 L26 D91 O15 O10
    Date: 2020–04
  42. By: Massimo Bordignon (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Matteo Gamalerio; Edoardo Slerca; Gilberto Turati
    Abstract: Why do anti-immigrant political parties have more success in areas that host fewer immigrants? Using regression discontinuity design, structural breaks search methods and data from a sample of Italian municipalities, we show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigrant parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of the main Italian anti-immigrant party (Lega Nord) is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. Using data on local labor market characteristics and on the incomes of natives and immigrants, we provide evidence which points at the competition in the local labor market between natives and immigrants as the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigrant parties in areas with low shares of immigrants. Alternative stories find less support in the data.
    Keywords: Migration, extreme-right parties, anti-immigrant parties, populism, tipping point, regression discontinuity design.
    JEL: D72 J61 R23
    Date: 2020–03
  43. By: Damiaan Persyn (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to estimating at the underlying regional level. The distribution of regional unemployment rates within countries over time is not mean-scaled. Regions with low unemployment rates are the main drivers of changes in aggregate unemployment. The steepness of a log-linear wage curve in regions with low unemployment dominates at the aggregate (country) level, overestimating wage pressure. Lagged wages are important in explaining wage growth, together with unemployment. This suggests that a wage curve fits the data better than the assumption of a NAWRU or long run natural rate of unemployment. With regional wage curves, spatial aggregation bias can produce aggregate data that resembles such a natural rate of unemployment, however.
    Keywords: Region, Growth, Unemployment, NAWRU, NAIRU, Wage Curve, Labor markets.
    JEL: J30 J41 R23
    Date: 2020–04
  44. By: Luis Orea; Inmaculada C. Álvarez
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of population on March 14th to battle the COVID-19 propagation, as well as the effect of bringing forward the date of this public intervention. We test not only whether the lockdown (and other control measures) has prevented local contagion of the virus, but also whether it has prevented the inter-province spread of COVID-19.
    Date: 2020–04
  45. By: Muñoz-Pizza, Dalia M. (Oceanographic Research Institute. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Baja California, México); Villada-Canela, Mariana (Oceanographic Research Institute. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Baja California, México); Rivera-Castañeda, Patricia (Department of Urban and Environmental Studies, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Baja California, México); Reyna-Carranza, Marco A. (Oceanographic Research Institute. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Baja California, México); Osornio-Vargas, Alvaro (Department of Pediatrics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada); Martínez-Cruz, Adan L. (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: The pervasiveness of particulate matter in arid cities has yet to be discussed and tackled. Given that urban trees have been documented to provide air-filtering and dry deposition services, this study documents the stated benefits from an urban afforestation scenario in Mexicali –an arid city located northwest Mexico at the US-Mexico border. Our double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation protocol yields an estimated average annual willingness to pay (WTP) of USD 88 per household. Variations in the WTP are associated with perception of air quality and presence of respiratory symptoms in the respondent’s household. The smallest WTP (USD 75) is reported by respondents perceiving poor air quality in their neighborhood and with no household members affected by respiratory symptoms. In contrast, respondents perceiving good air quality and with at least one household member facing respiratory symptoms reported a WTP of USD 99. The average stated benefits represent around 0.8% of the annual household income.
    Keywords: Air quality; PM10; urban afforestation; contingent valuation; arid cities; Mexicali.
    JEL: Q51 Q53 Q58 Q59
    Date: 2020–04–16
  46. By: Sjöholm, Fredrik (Department of Economics, Lund University, and)
    Abstract: The effect of minimum wages on employment is a matter of debate, and the existing empirical literature contains mixed results. One reason for this is the methodological difficulties involved where changes in minimum wages are endogenous to other important economic changes. To overcome this problem, we examine exogenous changes to local minimum wages in Indonesia between 1989 and 1994. Our natural experiment results from a national policy change: from minimum wages being determined by local guidelines and criteria to minimum wages being harmonized and set according to nationwide criteria. We examine how these changes in minimum wages affect employment, considering the effect both on employment within plants and on exit of plants. Our results show no evidence of an effect of minimum wages on employment in Indonesian plants. One explanation found in the data is that higher minimum wages force plants to increase productivity, which in turn enables them to retain their labor force, despite higher wage costs.
    Keywords: Minimum wages; Employment; Plants; Indonesia
    JEL: J21 J23 J38
    Date: 2020–04–08
  47. By: Jean-Pierre Aubry; Kevin Wandrei
    Abstract: As of 2019, 18 states offered something other than the traditional stand-alone defined benefit (DB) plan as their primary retirement plan. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, states were more likely to introduce a hybrid and/or cash balance plan rather than a stand-alone defined contribution (DC) plan. But less is known about the adoption of alternative plans among local governments. This brief documents the extent of the shift away from stand-alone DB plans for a sample of 180 major local governments to see how it compares to the changes at the state level. The brief proceeds as follows. The first section describes the alternative plan types that governments introduce when they shift away from a stand-alone DB plan. The second section describes the local government sample and documents the extent and nature of the shift. The third section describes the impact of the shift on government contributions and employee benefits. The final section concludes that the activity at the local level is similar to states in volume and geography, but localities rely more on stand-alone DC plans.
    Date: 2020–04
  48. By: Aydogan, Yigit
    Abstract: In this paper it is shown that more crowded cities did not exacerbate the Covid-19 pandemic. Reports from Turkey constitutes evidence that the Gibrat’s Law holds and the infection grows among population in proportion to the city sizes. Covid-19 cases are lognormally distributed throughout the country. While the 0-19 age group of the society is associated with a negative impact on the reported cases, 40-59 group has the most additive effect. Distribution of the reported deaths from Covid-19 does not grow in proportion to the city size, and may well be approximated by both exponential and normal distributions.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Gibrat’s Law, Law of the Proportionate Effect, City Size Distribution.
    JEL: C21 D01 I18
    Date: 2020–04–09
  49. By: Callum J. Jones; Thomas Philippon; Venky Venkateswaran
    Abstract: We study the response of an economy to an unexpected epidemic. Households mitigate the spread of the disease by reducing consumption, reducing hours worked, and working from home. Working from home is subject to learning-by-doing and the capacity of the health care system is limited. A social planner worries about two externalities, an infection externality and a healthcare congestion externality. Private agents’ mitigation incentives are weak and biased. We show that private safety incentives can even decline at the onset of the epidemic. The planner, on the other hand, implements front-loaded mitigation policies and encourages working from home immediately. In our calibration, assuming a CFR of 1% and an initial infection rate of 0.1%, private mitigation reduces the cumulative death rate from 2.5% of the initially susceptible population to about 1.75%. The planner optimally imposes a drastic suppression policy and reduces the death rate to 0.15% at the cost of an initial drop in consumption of around 25%.
    JEL: E2 E6 I1
    Date: 2020–04
  50. By: C. Baunez (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Mickael Degoulet (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Stéphane Luchini (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Pintus (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Miriam Teschl (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
    Keywords: acceleration of harm,deceleration of harm,epidemic dynamics,efficiency criterion,sub-national allocation of tests,real-time Analysis,COVID-19,Italy
    Date: 2020–04
  51. By: Pettersson-Lidbom, Per (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In this comment, I revisit the question raised in Karadja and Prawitz (2019) concerning a causal relationship between mass emigration and long-run political outcomes. I find that their analysis fails to recognize that their independent variable of interest, emigration, is severely underreported since approximately 30% of all Swedish emigrants are missing from their data. As a result, their instrumental variable estimator is inconsistent due to nonclassical measurement error. Another important problem is that their instrument is unlikely to be conditionally exogenous due to insufficient control for confounders correlated with their weather-based instrument. Indeed, they fail to properly account for non-linearities in the effect of weather shocks and to control for unobserved heterogeneity at the weather station level. Correcting for the any of these problems reveals that there is no relationship between emigration and political outcomes.
    Keywords: replication; emigration; non-classical measurement error; omitted variable bias;
    JEL: D72 J61 P16
    Date: 2020–04–10
  52. By: Gupta, Rangan (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ma, Jun (Department of Economics, Northeastern University); Theodoridis, Konstantinos (Cardiff Business School); Wohar, Mark E (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha)
    Abstract: We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We find that the contribution of the national factor in explaining fluctuations in house prices is not only critical, but also has been increasing and has become more important than the local factors since around 1990. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive (VAR) model, that allows for different regimes throughout the sample period, to study the impact of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, (conventional) monetary policy, and term-spread shocks, identified based on sign-restrictions, on the national component of house price movements. We detect three regimes corresponding to the periods of ÒGreat InflationÓ, ÒGreat ModerationÓ, and the zero-lower bound (ZLB). While the conventional monetary policy is found to have played an important role in the historical evolution of the national factor in the first-regime, other shocks are found to be quite dominant as well especially during the second regime, with monetary policy shocks playing virtually no role during this period. In the third-regime, unconventional monetary policy shock is found to have led to a (delayed) recovery in the housing market. But more importantly, we find evidence that the national housing factor has been detached from the identified macroeconomic shocks (fundamentals) since 2014, thus suggesting that a Ònational bubbleÓ might be brewing again in the US housing market. Understandably, our results have important policy implications.
    Keywords: House Prices, Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model, Change-Point Vector Autoregressive Model, Macroeconomic Shocks, Bayesian Analysis
    JEL: C11 C32 E31 E32 E43 E52 R31
    Date: 2020–04
  53. By: Hunt Allcott; Levi Boxell; Jacob C. Conway; Matthew Gentzkow; Michael Thaler; David Y. Yang
    Abstract: We study partisan differences in Americans’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on the right and left have sent divergent messages about the severity of the crisis, which could impact the extent to which Republicans and Democrats engage in social distancing and other efforts to reduce disease transmission. We develop a simple model of a pandemic response with heterogeneous agents that clarifies the causes and consequences of heterogeneous responses. We use location data from a large sample of smartphones to show that areas with more Republicans engage in less social distancing, controlling for other factors including state policies, population density, and local COVID cases and deaths. We then present new survey evidence of significant gaps between Republicans and Democrats in beliefs about personal risk and the future path of the pandemic.
    JEL: D72 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–04
  54. By: Montserrat Guillen (Dept. Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain); Ana M. Pérez-Marín (Dept. Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain); Manuela Alcañiz (Dept. Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)
    Abstract: Reference charts are widely used as a graphical tool for assessing and monitoring children’s growth given gender and age. Here, we propose a similar approach to the assessment of driving risk. Based on telematics data, and using quantile regression models, our methodology estimates the percentiles of the distance driven at speeds above the legal limit depending on drivers’ characteristics and the journeys made. We refer to the resulting graphs as risk reference charts for speeding and illustrate their use for a sample of drivers with Pay-How-You-Drive insurance policies. We find that percentiles of distance driven at excessive speeds depend mainly on total distance driven, the percentage of driving in urban areas and the driver’s gender. However, the impact on the estimated percentile for these covariates is not constant. We conclude that the heterogeneity in the risk of driving long distances above the speed limit can be easily represented using reference charts and that, conversely, individual drivers can be scored by calculating an estimated percentile for their specific case. The dynamics of this risk score can be assessed by recording drivers as they accumulate driving experience and cover more kilometres. Our methodology should be useful for accident prevention and, in the context of Manage-How-You-Drive insurance, reference charts can provide real-time alerts and enhance recommendations for ensuring safety.
    Keywords: Motor insurance, Speed, Telematics, Quantile regression, Reference curves, Risk score JEL classification: C21, G22
    Date: 2020–04
  55. By: Simon Büchler, Alex van de Minne, Olivier Schöni
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of the redevelopment potential on commercial real estate transaction prices. First, using a probit model, we compute the fitted redevelopment potential. This potential is primarily determined by the difference in net operating income (NOI) per square foot of land (sql) to the potential highest and best use (HBU) of the property. This difference reflects the economic obsolescence of a property. Second, we run a 2SLS model with the fitted redevelopment potential as an instrument for the redevelopment dummy. We find that having a 100 percent redevelopment potential increases the property's price by nine to 17 percent.
    Keywords: Probability of redevelopment, Real Estate Pricing, Competing Risk
    JEL: R32 C01
    Date: 2020–04
  56. By: Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Matthew Lieber
    Abstract: On April 9, the Federal Reserve announced up to $2.3 trillion in new support for the economy in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Among the initiatives is the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF), intended to support state and local governments. The details of the facility are described in the term sheet. The state and local sector is a unique but very important part of the economy. This post lays out some of the economics of the sector and the needs that the facility intends to satisfy.
    Keywords: state government; local government; COVID-19; municipal government; facility
    JEL: E52 H0
    Date: 2020–04–10
  57. By: Ekpo Akpan H.; Ndebbio John E.U. (Akwa Ibom State)
  58. By: Lisa B Kahn; Samuele Fabian Lange; David Wiczer
    Abstract: We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims data to study the impact of COVID-19 on the labor market. Our data allow us to track postings at disaggregated geography and by detailed occupation and industry. We find that job vacancies collapsed in the second half of March and are now 30\% lower than their level at the beginning of the year. To a first approximation, this collapse was broad based, hitting all U.S. states, regardless of the intensity of the initial virus spread or timing of stay-at-home policies. UI claims also largely match these patterns. Nearly all industries and occupations saw contraction in postings and spikes in UI claims, regardless of whether they are deemed essential and whether they have work-from-home capability. The only major exceptions are in essential retail and nursing, the "front line" jobs most in-demand during the current crisis.
    Date: 2020
  59. By: Alejandro Cid; José María Cabrera; Marianne Bernatzky; María Ramírez-Michelena; Magdalena Blanco
    Abstract: This is the first paper to identify, using a field experiment, the effects of intense one-on-one assistance by a professional social worker on the take-up of social benefits within a population of deeply disadvantaged informal workers. A municipal program exists that entails providing these disadvantaged informal workers with a formal permit to work on the streets and make contributions to the retirement pension system. We randomly assign one-on-one assistance to these informal workers, and within this treatment group, we randomly assign money to cover the cost of the documents required by the municipality. We find that a worker who receives one-on-one assistance is three times more likely to receive the municipal permit than a worker in the control group. We also find that a worker who receives both one-on-one assistance and cost coverage is four times more likely to obtain the municipal permit. Providing information alone does not have an impact. The program has no spillover effect on the take-up of other national support programs that are not targeted by the one-on-one assistance intervention. These findings identify possible strategies to remove barriers to increase the take-up of social benefits within deeply vulnerable populations
    Keywords: behavioral barriers; welfare take-up; social benefits; personal assistance; information; field experiment; labor regulation.
    JEL: C93 D04 J46 J62 I30 I38
    Date: 2019
  60. By: Overman, Henry G.; Einiö, Elias
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of a significant place-based intervention that targeted local businesses in deprived areas in the UK. To gain identification, we use data at a fine spatial scale and a regression discontinuity design exploiting the eligibility deprivation rank rule based on a pre-determined deprivation index. We detect no overall effects on employment in treated areas but find a significant displacement of employment from nearby untreated areas, corresponding to around 10% of local employment. The results suggest that indirect displacement effects may substantially weaken the ability of local support programmes targeting the non-tradable sector to reduce economic inequality.
    Keywords: employment; business support; local growth; programme evaluation; displacement; regression discontinuity; ES/J021342/1; ES/G005966/1
    JEL: R11 H25 J20 O40
    Date: 2020–03–03
  61. By: Robbins, Glyn
    Abstract: Despite widespread recognition that housing is a serious social concern, policy responses have tended to be inadequate. After a brief review of the magnitude of the problem, this paper focuses on recent experience in the UK where, during a period of political volatility, housing has been the subject of significant government interventions, which in turn have provoked noteworthy reactions. However, the paper argues that all current mainstream housing policy proposals are limited by their adherence to the failed market model. Instead, a more radical agenda is proposed which draws on the UK’s successful record of public housing. The paper summarises some of the key Conservative government housing policies since 2016 - including the influence of the Grenfell fire - and discusses the Labour Party’s response. It particularly critiques the policies of London Mayor Sadiq Khan which relegate traditional council housing in favour of more income-targeted provision. A high-profile report by the housing charity Shelter is also considered because of its apparent reluctance to include explicit reference to council housing within its recommendations, at a time when, it is argued, there is renewed interest in non-market housing alternatives.
    Keywords: council housing; Housing policy; Sadiq Khan; Shelter; the Labour Party
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–01–22
  62. By: Joaquin Ameller (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie); Jean-Daniel Rinaudo; Corinne Merly (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM))
    Abstract: Urban planners increasingly perceive Brownfield redevelopment (BFR) as a strategic priority. BFR not only allows suppressing some of the nuisances caused by derelict and contaminated lands, it also contributes to revitalizing dense urban areas and preventing the undesired effects of urban sprawl. This literature review paper analyses how economists have contributed to removing some of the barriers that prevent or restrict BFR. A first contribution was to demonstrate the economic benefits of BFR. Economists also contributed to the development of multidisciplinary decision support tools used to rank BFR projects in terms of long-term sustainability and social welfare. They also contributed to the design of institutional arrangements (including regulatory and economic instruments) that can facilitate the engagement of stakeholders in BFR projects. Our literature search combines the use of a standard and a systematic literature review to identify relevant papers scattered in very diversified publication outlets. We show that there is significant scope for better integration of economic analysis within the multidisciplinary mainstream of BFR literature, and provide pathways for future research.
    Date: 2020–02–24
  63. By: Kasir, Nitsa Kaliner (Haredi Institute for Policy Studies); Yashiv, Eran (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: The Arab population in Israel constitutes an ethnic minority, at around 20% of the population. The economy of this minority is characterized by inferior outcomes relative to the Jewish majority by all indicators, including employment, wages, occupational status, social welfare, education, and housing. This paper reviews key data facts and presents a model of barriers to integration facing Arabs in Israel, taking it to the data. The empirical analysis, based on a general equilibrium model of occupational choice with optimizing agents and barriers, points to an increase over time in barriers to the acquisition of human capital in highly skilled occupations, and, concurrently, a reduction in labor market barriers in all occupations. The analysis offers insights relevant to other developed economies with large ethnic minorities.
    Keywords: ethnic minority, economic outcomes, human capital barriers, labor market barriers, occupational choice
    JEL: J15 J24
    Date: 2020–04
  64. By: Elvis Cheng Xu
    Abstract: We conduct a field trust game under a natural experiment context to test the impacts of urbanisation on trust. We conjecture that urbanisation, defined in this context as the process of state-led rural-urban migration, contributes to a transformation of trust levels among co-villagers and towards outsiders. We test this conjecture in an experimental approach and more generally, examine whether the urbanisation will produce significant impacts on in-group trust and out-group trust. The research finds that urbanisation does not decrease significantly the trust towards co-villagers, meaning the in-group trust did not change statistically significantly. However, the trust towards outsiders does increase as a result of the state-led urbanisation. We also run a regression on the trust exhibited towards participants in the experiment and found the partial effect of whether they are co-villagers or outsiders weakens as a result of the urbanisation, and therefore conclude urbanisation decreases out-group discrimination in trust.
    Date: 2019

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