nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒03‒30
sixty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Steering cities towards a sustainable transport system in Norway and Sweden By Jussila Hammes, Johanna
  2. Macroeconomic determinants of apartment prices in Swedish and German cities By Engerstam, Sviatlana
  3. Urban Form and Productivity : What Is the Shape of Latin American Cities ? By Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula
  4. Housing Booms and the U.S. Productivity Puzzle By Jose Carreno
  5. Urbanization and its Discontents By Edward L. Glaeser
  6. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Growth in Latin American Cities : An Analysis Using Nighttime Lights Imagery By Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula; Velasquez,Wilson A.
  7. A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China By Xiaoqing Zhou
  8. Teacher career opportunities and school quality By Grönqvist, Erik; Hensvik, Lena; Thoresson, Anna
  9. Online housing search and gravity models By J.W.A.M. Steegmans; Jonathan de Bruin
  10. Is a bubble inflating on Poland’s housing market? By Adam Czerniak; Stefan Kawalec
  11. Strategic House Price Indexes for Warsaw: An Evaluation of Competing Methods By Robert Hill; Radoslaw Trojanek
  12. Optimal Taxation under Regional Inequality By Sebastian G. Kessing; Vilen Lipatov; J. Malte Zoubek
  13. Why is the Hong Kong housing market unaffordable? Some stylized facts and estimations By Charles Ka Yui Leung; Joe Cho Yiu Ng; Edward Chi Ho Tang
  14. Why are Adjustable Rate Mortgages So Rare These Days? By James Vickery
  15. Peer Effects on Violence : Experimental Evidence from El Salvador By Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana
  16. Mobilizing parents at home and at school: an experiment on primary education in Angola By Vincenzo Di Maro; Stefan Leeffers; Danila Serra; Pedro C. Vicente
  17. Traffic, Air Pollution, and Distributional Impacts in Dar es Salaam : A Spatial Analysis with New Satellite Data By Dasgupta,Susmita; Lall,Somik V.; Wheeler,David
  18. Institutional Fragmentation and Metropolitan Coordination in Latin American Cities : What Consequences for Productivity and Growth ? By Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula
  19. Income-related health inequality in urban China (1991-2015): The role of homeownership and housing conditions By Peng Nie; Andrew E. Clarck; Conchita D'Ambrosio; Lanlin Ding
  20. Income Sorting Across Space: The Role of Amenities and Commuting Costs By Gaigne, Carl; Koster, Hans R.A.; Moizeau, Fabien; Thisse, Jacques-François
  21. Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China By Jin, Zhangfeng
  22. Highway Politics in a Divided Government : Evidence from Mexico By Selod,Harris; Soumahoro,Souleymane
  23. Potential Analysis And Optimalize Strategy Of Boarding Home Tax In Banyuwangi District By Puspita, Yeni; Wicaksono, Galih
  24. Coworking Spaces in La Paz, Bolivia: Urban Effects and Potential Creation of New Opportunities for Local Economic Development By Lucas DuPriest
  25. Urbanization and regional difference in ageing in Europe By Kashnitsky, Ilya; de Beer, Joop; van Wissen, Leo
  26. Recovery from an Early-Life Shock through Improved Access to Schools By Tushar Bharati; Seungwoo Chin; Dawoon Jung
  27. Spill over or Spill out? - A multilevel analysis of the cluster and firm performance relationship By Nils Grashof
  28. Imagination and mobility in the city: porosity of borders and human development in divided urban environments By Jovchelovitch, Sandra; Priego-Hernandez, Jacqueline; Dedios Sanguineti, Maria Cecilia; Nogueira-Teixeira, Mara Cristina
  29. Poverty Measurement in the Era of Food Away from Home : Testing Alternative Approaches in Vietnam By Farfan Bertran,Maria Gabriela; Mcgee,Kevin Robert; Perng,Julie Ting Ting; Vakis,Renos
  30. Minority Report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups By Richard Murphy; Gill Wyness
  31. Understanding the Exposure at Default Risk of Commercial Real Estate Construction and Land Development Loans By Shan Luo; Anthony Murphy
  32. Urban Air Mobility: Viability of Hub-Door and Door-Door Movement by Air By Bulusu, Vishwanath; Sengupta, Raja
  33. The Link between Regional Temperature and Regional Income: Econometric Evidence with Sub-National Data By Christina Greßer; Daniel Meierrieks; David Stadelmann
  34. Gulf War II Veterans Home Buyers Tax Credit By Richard Peach
  35. Ethnic Density and Health at Birth By Paola Bertoli; Veronica Grembi; The Linh Bao Nguyen
  36. Low Emission Zones for Better Health: Evidence from German Hospitals By Nico Pestel; Florian Wozny
  37. The impact of delays on the welfare effects of on-track competition: The case of transfer passengers with operator-tied tickets By Christina; Gernot Sieg
  38. Effect of segregation on inequality in kinetic models of wealth exchange By Lennart Fernandes; Jacques Tempere
  39. Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration: Bay Area Rapid Transit Integrated Carpool to Transit Access Program Evaluation Report By Martin, Elliot; Cohen, Adam; Yassine, Ziad; Brown, Les; Shaheen, Susan
  41. Failure Is No Longer a (Free) Option for Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities By Michael J. Fleming
  42. Partial pooling with cross-country priors: An application to house price shocks By Roth, Markus
  43. Ethnic and Social Class Discrimination in Education: Experimental Evidence from Germany By Wenz, Sebastian Ernst; Hoenig, Kerstin
  44. The impact of job referrals on employment outcomes in top corporate positions By Levati, Lorenzo Maria; Lalanne, Marie
  45. Education and Health: Long-run Effects of Peers, Tracking and Years By Martin Fischer; Ulf-Göram Gerdtham,; Gawain Heckley; Martin Karlsson; Gustav Kjellsson; Therese Nilsson
  46. Putting the watering can away Towards a targeted (problem-oriented) cluster policy framework By Grashof, Nils
  47. Housing in Medicaid: Should it Really Change? By Bertrand Achou
  48. Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration: BART Integrated Carpool to Transit Access Program, Final Report By Nabti, Jumana
  49. Airports, access and local economic performance: evidence from China By Gibbons, Stephen; Wu, Wenjie
  50. Causal Spillover Effects Using Instrumental Variables By Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
  51. A Look at Bank Loan Performance By James Vickery; Tara Sullivan
  52. The Dodd-Frank Act’s Potential Effects on the Credit Rating Industry By James Vickery
  53. What Caused Racial Disparities in Particulate Exposure to Fall? New Evidence from the Clean Air Act and Satellite-Based Measures of Air Quality By Janet Currie; John Voorheis; Reed Walker
  54. Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China By Imbert, Clement; Seror, Marlon; Zylberberg, Yanos; Zhang, Yifan
  55. Tertiary Education Expansion and Regional Firm Development By Tobias Schlegel; Curdin Pfister; Uschi Backes-Gellner
  56. Capital Market Integration with Multiple Convergence Clubs: The Case of Prewar Japan By Tetsuji Okazaki; Koji Sakai
  57. Between Firm Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Dominant Role of Industry Effects By John Haltiwanger; James R. Spletzer
  58. Early Childhood Education and Life-cycle Health By Jorge Luis Garcia; James J. Heckman
  59. There is Not One But Many AI: A Network Perspective on Regional Demand in AI Skills By Stephany, Fabian
  60. Can Pollution Cause Poverty? The Effects of Pollution on Educational, Health and Economic Outcomes By Persico, Claudia
  61. Diversity without adversity? Refugees’ efforts to integrate can partially offset identity-based biases By Anna Getmansky; Konstantinos Matakos; Tolga Sinmazdemir
  62. Closed House of Wonders museum: Implications to the tourism of Zanzibar Stone Town, UNESCO World Heritage Site By Maximilian Chami; Gabriel Kaminyoge
  63. (2018) Involuntary Resettlement as an Opportunity for Development: The Case of Urban Resettlers of the New Tehri Town, Journal of Land and Rural Studies 6(2) 1–25 By Reddy, A Amarender
  64. Transforming cities toward sustainability transition By Phoebe Koundouri; Lydia Papadaki
  65. Of mice and merchants: connectedness and the location of economic activity in the Iron Age By Bakker, Jan; Maurer, Stephan; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen; Rauch, Ferdinand

  1. By: Jussila Hammes, Johanna (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI))
    Abstract: This paper describes so-called city growth agreements and city environmental agreements in Norway and Sweden, respectively. We do case studies of two regions in Norway and two cities in Sweden. While the general aim of the agreements is similar in the two countries, namely for the central government to influence municipal infrastructure building in a more environmentally sustainable direction, the agreements differ in many respects. While the Norwegian agreements consist of several projects concerning the construction of roads and railroads, and infrastructure for public transport, pedestrians, and cycling, the Swedish agreements only concern one (type of) project at a time. Moreover, Norway emphasizes city planning more; even though the building of new housing is important also in Sweden, location and densification are less so. The Swedish projects are municipality driven, while the Norwegian system is based on reciprocal negotiations between the municipalities, the county, and the state. The Norwegian model fits better into a theoretical fiscal federalism-based framework than the Swedish one, with the state internalizing spatial spillovers arising from infrastructure projects. In Sweden, the agreements are better to be seen as means for institutionalized lobbying by municipalities
    Keywords: Co-financing; Cycling; Sustainable cities; Public transport; Infrastructure investment; State-local cooperation; City planning
    JEL: D70 H54 H71 Q54 R11 R42
    Date: 2020–03–23
  2. By: Engerstam, Sviatlana (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: We study the long-term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment prices in major urban areas in Sweden and Germany. The panel cointegration analysis was chosen as the primary approach due to the limited availability of data for a more extended period and frequency. The dataset consists of 2 countries – Germany and Sweden. The Swedish dataset includes three major cities and a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes 7 “Big cities” for 29 years. Pooling the observations allows overcoming data restrictions in econometric analysis of long-term time series such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The results lie in line with previous studies and also allow comparison of single city estimations in an integrated equilibrium framework. The empirical results indicate that apartment prices react much stronger on changes in fundamentals in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar underlying fundamentals. Comparative analysis of regulations on the rental market, bank lending policies, and approaches to valuation for mortgage purposes in these two countries provide evidence that this overreaction arises due to institutional differences in form bank lending policies, mortgage valuation practices, and regulations on the rental market. Application of the more sustainable value concept such as mortgage lending value in mortgage valuations could make lending for housing less procyclical and stabilize house prices over the long run. Moreover, it will help to keep house prices away from overreaction on changes in macroeconomic fundamentals.
    Keywords: Housing market; macro economy; price determinants; panel cointegration; dymanic OLS
    JEL: C33 C51 R15 R30
    Date: 2020–03–20
  3. By: Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula
    Abstract: This paper examines the linkages between urban form and city productivity, using alternative metrics for urban form and applying them to a comprehensive sample of Latin American cities. Although most of the literature has concentrated on the effects of population density (compact versus sprawling urban development), this paper seeks to assess whether different dimensions of a city's urban form, such as shape, structure, and land-use, affect its economic performance. The paper finds that the shape of the urban extent, the inner-city connectedness, and fullness have a statistically significant influence on the productivity level of the city.
    Keywords: Hydrology,City to City Alliances,Urban Economics,Urban Economic Development,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Communities,Regional Urban Development,Transport Services,Economic Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Industrial Economics
    Date: 2019–01–10
  4. By: Jose Carreno
    Abstract: The United States has been experiencing a slowdown in productivity growth for more than a decade. I exploit geographic variation across U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) to investigate the link between the 2006-2012 decline in house prices (the housing bust) and the productivity slowdown. Instrumental variable estimates support a causal relationship between the housing bust and the productivity slowdown. The results imply that one standard deviation decline in house prices translates into an increment of the productivity gap -- i.e. how much an MSA would have to grow to catch up with the trend -- by 6.9p.p., where the average gap is 14.51%. Using a newly-constructed capital expenditures measure at the MSA level, I find that the long investment slump that came out of the Great Recession explains an important part of this effect. Next, I document that the housing bust led to the investment slump and, ultimately, the productivity slowdown, mostly through the collapse in consumption expenditures that followed the bust. Lastly, I construct a quantitative general equilibrium model that rationalizes these empirical findings, and find that the housing bust is behind roughly 50 percent of the productivity slowdown.
    Date: 2020–01
  5. By: Edward L. Glaeser
    Abstract: American cities have experienced a remarkable renaissance over the past 40 years, but in recent years, cities have experienced considerable discontent. Anger about high housing prices and gentrification has led to protests. The urban wage premium appears to have disappeared for less skilled workers. The cities of the developing world are growing particularly rapidly, but in those places, the downsides of density are acute. In this essay, I review the causes of urban discontent and present a unified explanation for this unhappiness. Urban resurgence represents private sector success, and the public sector typically only catches up to urban change with a considerable lag. Moreover, as urban machines have been replaced by governments that are more accountable to empowered residents, urban governments do more to protect insiders and less to enable growth. The power of insiders can be seen in the regulatory limits on new construction and new businesses, the slow pace of school reform and the unwillingness to embrace congestion pricing.
    JEL: H70 R10 R31
    Date: 2020–03
  6. By: Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula; Velasquez,Wilson A.
    Abstract: The impact of urban form on economic performance and quality of life has been extensively recognized. The studies on urban form have focused in developed countries; only a few cities in developing countries have been studied. This paper utilizes nighttime lights imagery and information on street networks, automatically retrieved from OpenStreetMap, to calculate a series of spatial metrics that capture different aspects of the urban form of 919 Latin American and Caribbean cities. The paper classifies these cities into clusters according to these spatial metrics. It also studies the relationship between the urban form metrics and some factors that can correlate with urban form (topography, size, colony, and economic performance) and performs a spatio-temporal analysis of urban growth from 1996 to 2010. Among the results, the paper highlights the identification of five typologies of cities, the tendency of a group of cities to grow at a steeper slope, some worrying cases of urban growth over protected areas, and a trend toward increasing sprawl in some Latin American and Caribbean cities.
    Keywords: City to City Alliances,Urban Economics,Urban Economic Development,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Communities,Regional Urban Development,Transport Services,Labor Markets,Energy and Natural Resources,Coastal and Marine Resources
    Date: 2019–01–15
  7. By: Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: The Housing Provident Fund (HPF) is the largest public housing program in China. It was created in 1999 to enhance homeownership. This program involves a mandatory saving scheme based on labor income. Past deposits are refunded when the worker purchases a house or retires. Moreover, the program provides mortgages at subsidized rates to facilitate these home purchases. I calibrate a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model to quantify the effects of these policies. My analysis shows that a housing program with these features is expected to raise the rate of homeownership by 8.7 percentage points and to increase the average home size by 20%. I discuss the economic mechanisms by which these outcomes are achieved and which features of the HPF program are most effective. I also consider several extensions of the model such as requiring employers to contribute to the program and allowing renters to withdraw funds from the HPF.
    Keywords: Public policy; Housing Provident Fund; Policy evaluation; China; Life-cycle model; Homeownership
    JEL: E2 E6 H3 R2 R3
    Date: 2020–03–19
  8. By: Grönqvist, Erik (Uppsala University); Hensvik, Lena (Uppsala University); Thoresson, Anna (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: We study the effects of introducing a performance-based promotion program for teachers in Sweden. The program intended to make the teaching profession more attractive by raising wages for skilled teachers and taking advantage of teachers' professional competence. Our results show that: (i) high-wage, high ability teachers are more likely to be promoted; (ii) the stipulated wage increase has full pass-through onto wages for promoted teachers; (iii) schools with promotions have lower teacher separations and an improved pool of teachers; (iv)the promotion program improved student performance. These results suggest that performance-based promotions could be an important tool for raising school quality.
    Keywords: Career opportunities; Teacher labor market; Student performance
    JEL: I21 I28 J31 J45
    Date: 2020–02–13
  9. By: J.W.A.M. Steegmans; Jonathan de Bruin
    Abstract: In this paper we apply a gravity framework to user-generated data of a large housing market platform. We show that gravity describes the patterns of inflow and outflow of hits (mouse clicks, etc.) from one municipality to another, where the municipality of the user defines the origin and the municipality of the property that is viewed defines the destination. The estimates indicate that even the simplest gravity model explains close to 80 percent of the bilateral flows. By distinguishing serious searchers from recreational searchers we demonstrate that the gravity framework describes search patterns of both types of users. The results indicate that recreational search is centered more around the user's location than serious search. However, this finding is driven entirely by differences in border effects as there is no difference in the distance effect. As such we find no evidence of differences in information frictions between both groups of searchers.
    Keywords: online search, gravity model, user-generated data
    Date: 2019
  10. By: Adam Czerniak; Stefan Kawalec
    Abstract: The year 2019 brought double-digit growth in Polish housing prices, for both new and existing homes. In some cities, real prices for residential real estate have reached the highest levels in history, even higher than at the peak of the boom in 2008. As a result, some are saying that there is a growing price bubble. But thus far no research has been produced that would comprehensively verify this hypothesis on the basis of data from 2006-2019. This work aims to fill that gap. This is exceptionally important, because assessing the likelihood that a housing price bubble is emerging is key for the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy in Poland. Because if we’re really dealing with growth in macroeconomic imbalances, then taking pre-emptive action to limit further price growth and prepare the economy (including the financial sector) for a potential collapse in housing prices is essential for limiting fluctuations in growth.
    Keywords: real estate market, price bubble, flipping, housing investments, crowdfunding
    JEL: R31 R32 R38
    Date: 2020–03–10
  11. By: Robert Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Radoslaw Trojanek (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland)
    Abstract: Using a detailed micro-level dataset we compute house price indexes (HPIs) for Warsaw over the period 2006 to 2018. We find that when a hedonic approach is used, the resulting index is reasonably robust to the choice of method. Nevertheless, the hedonic HPIs computed by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and Statistics Poland (SP) both have some weaknesses. More problematic than hedonic indexes are HPIs computed using the repeat-sales method, which is widely used in the US. We find that such indexes are unreliable, suffering from sample selection bias, and prone to significant revisions when new periods are added to the dataset. Overall, we recommend using either the hedonic time-dummy or rolling time dummy (RTD) methods. These methods when applied to our dataset provide the most reliable HPIs for Warsaw.
    Keywords: The residential real estate market in Warsaw; Hedonic house price index; Repeat-sales price index; Sample selection bias; Robustness to revisions; Robustness to deletion of data
    JEL: C13 R31
    Date: 2020–03
  12. By: Sebastian G. Kessing (University of Siegen); Vilen Lipatov (Justus Liebig University Giessen); J. Malte Zoubek (University of Siegen)
    Abstract: We study how regional productivity differences and labor mobility shape optimal Mirrleesian tax-transfer schemes. When tax schedules are not allowed to differ across regions, productivity-enhancing inter-regional migration exerts a downward pressure on optimal marginal tax rates. When regionally differentiated taxation is allowed, marginal tax rates in high-(low-)productivity regions should be corrected downwards (upwards) relative to the benchmark without migration. Simulations of the productivity differences between metropolitan and other areas of the US indicate that migration affects the optimal tax-transfer schedule more strongly in the regionally differentiated rather than in the undifferentiated case.
    Keywords: Optimal taxation, place-based redistribution, regional inequality, migration, multidimensional screening, delayed optimal control
    JEL: H11 J45 R12
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Charles Ka Yui Leung; Joe Cho Yiu Ng; Edward Chi Ho Tang
    Abstract: The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper argues that the commonly used house price-to-income ratio may be misleading in an economy with almost half of the population living in either public rental housing or subsidized ownership. Moreover, we re-focus on the relationships between economic fundamentals and the housing market of Hong Kong. While the aggregate GDP, population, longevity continues to grow, the real wage and household income fall behind. The trend component of the real GDP growth suffers a permanent downward shift after the first quarter of 1989 (a “political scar”). The trend component of real wage growth is close to zero, and the counterpart of real consumption and real investment decline steadily. Meanwhile, the trend component of the real housing rent and price display patterns that decouple from the macroeconomic variables. We also discuss the directions for future research.
    Date: 2020–03
  14. By: James Vickery
    Abstract: The fraction of mortgage borrowers who choose an adjustable-rate loan has fallen significantly over the past five years or so. Although the fraction edged up slightly in 2010, it remains close to historic lows, with less than 10 percent of mortgage originations since 2009 featuring an adjustable interest rate. What explains the striking decline? And what are its implications for borrowers and policymakers?
    Keywords: Fannie Mae; mortgage; fixed-rate mortgage; Freddie Mac; adjustable-rate mortgage
    JEL: D1 R3
  15. By: Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana
    Abstract: This paper provides experimental evidence of the effect of having peers with different propensities for violence in the context of an afterschool program. By randomly assigning students to participate in the program with a set of similar or diverse peers in terms of violence, the study measures the effects of segregation or integration on students'behavioral, neurophysiological, and academic outcomes. The paper also exploits a discontinuity around the median of the propensity for violence distribution, to measure the impacts of segregation on marginal students. The results indicate that integrating students with different propensities for violence is better for highly and less violent children than segregating them. In particular, the intervention can have unintended effects on misbehavior and stress, if highly violent students are segregated and treated separately from their less violent peers.
    Date: 2020–03–17
  16. By: Vincenzo Di Maro; Stefan Leeffers; Danila Serra; Pedro C. Vicente
    Abstract: In this paper we test ways to mobilize parents for education. We implemented a field experiment in 126 Angolan primary schools, including three treatments: an information campaign at home, simple parents’ meetings at school, and the combination of both. Our measures of parental mobilization include beneficial practices at home, contacts with teachers, and participation in school institutions. We find that the information increased parents’ involvement at home but had no impact on engagement at school, while the meetings had the opposite effects. After mobilizing parents, the combined treatment improved management practices and facilities in schools, teachers’ attitudes, and parents’ satisfaction.
    Keywords: Parental involvement, information, coordination, field experiment, Angola
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Dasgupta,Susmita; Lall,Somik V.; Wheeler,David
    Abstract: Air pollution from vehicular traffic is a major source of health damage in urban areas. The problems of urban traffic and pollution are essentially geographic, because their incidence and impacts depend on the spatial distribution of economic activities, households, and transport links. This paper uses satellite images to investigate the spatial dynamics of vehicle traffic, air pollution, and exposure of vulnerable residents in the Dar es Salaam metro region of Tanzania. The results highlight significant impacts of seasonal weather (temperature, humidity, and wind-speed factors) on the spatial distribution and intensity of air pollution from vehicle emissions. These effects on the metro region's air quality vary highly by area. During seasons when weather factors maximize pollution, the worst exposure occurs in areas along the wind path of high-traffic roadways. The research identifies core areas where congestion reduction would yield the greatest exposure reduction for children and the elderly in poor households.
    Keywords: Intelligent Transport Systems,Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Brown Issues and Health,Inequality,Health Care Services Industry,Railways Transport
    Date: 2020–03–13
  18. By: Duque,Juan Carlos; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Patino,Jorge E.; Restrepo Cadavid,Paula
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of institutional fragmentation and metropolitan coordination on urban productivity in Latin American cities. The use of night-time lights satellite imagery and high-resolution population data allow the use of a broader definition of metropolitan area. Thus, metropolitan area consists of the urban extent that results from the union between the formally defined metropolitan area and the contiguous patches of urbanized areas with more that 500,000 inhabitants. The initial results suggest that the presence of multiple local governments within metropolitan areas generates opposite effects on urban productivity. On the one hand, smaller governments tend to be more responsive and efficient, which increases productivity. But, on the other hand, multiple local governments face coordination costs that reduce productivity.
    Keywords: Hydrology,Economic Growth,Industrial Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Transport in Urban Areas,Transport Services,Railways Transport
    Date: 2019–01–10
  19. By: Peng Nie (Xi'an Jiaotong University); Andrew E. Clarck (Paris School of Economics); Conchita D'Ambrosio (Universite du Luxembourg); Lanlin Ding (Xi'an Jiaotong University)
    Abstract: We analyze 1991-2015 data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey to ask how housing affects income-related health inequalities in urban China. We use the Erreygers Index (EI) to measure the health gradient, and apply a re-centered influence function (RIF) decomposition to estimate its determinants. We find pro-rich inequalities in self- reported health between 2000 and 2015 but pro-poor inequalities in objective health between 1991 and 2015. Housing conditions serve to reduce the health gradient, and especially that for objective health. Homeownership, however, exacerbates the health gradient. Improving housing conditions thus appears to be an effective way of reducing the income-health gradient in urban China.
    Keywords: Income-related health inequality; housing conditions; homeownership; decomposition; urban China.
    JEL: D63 I10 I12 R21
    Date: 2020–03
  20. By: Gaigne, Carl; Koster, Hans R.A.; Moizeau, Fabien; Thisse, Jacques-François
    Abstract: We study the sorting of skill/income-heterogeneous consumers within and between cities. We allow for non-homothetic preferences and locations that are differentiated by their accessibility to exogenous amenities and distance to employment centers, where production is subject to local externalities. The residential equilibrium is driven by the properties of an amenity-commuting aggregator obtained from the primitives of the model. Using the model’s structure and estimated parameters based on micro-data for the Netherlands, we predict that exogenous amenities are a key driver of spatial sorting. Our general equilibrium counterfactual analysis shows that in the absence of amenities, the GDP increases by 10% because commutes are shorter. However, income segregation rises and 95% of consumers are worse-off.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Jin, Zhangfeng
    Abstract: This study examines the causal effects of welfare benefits on internal migration decisions. Using a quasi-experimental migration reform across 283 Chinese cities from 2002 to 2015, combined with a difference-in-differences setup, I show that improved welfare benefits substantially increase migration. The observed impact is more pronounced for individuals such as the young, women and medium-low-skilled workers. It is relatively smaller in destinations exposed to larger positive demand shocks, suggesting that improved welfare benefits reduce migration costs. And it persists over the long term. All these findings confirm the existence of sizable welfare magnet effects.
    Keywords: Welfare Magnets,Internal Migration,China,Difference-in-differences
    JEL: H31 J61 O15 F66
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Selod,Harris; Soumahoro,Souleymane
    Abstract: This paper combines local election results and geo-referenced road construction data over 1993-2012 to investigate political bias in road infrastructure investment in a democratic setting, focusing on the case of Mexico. Using a regression discontinuity design, the paper finds strong evidence of partisan allocation of federally-funded highways to municipalities that voted for the president's party in legislative races, nearly doubling the stock of highways compared to opposition municipalities. The extent of political favoritism in highway provision is stronger under divided government when the president has no majority in the legislature, suggesting political efforts to control the Congress.
    Keywords: Roads and Highways Performance,Roads&Highways,Inter-Urban Roads and Passenger Transport,Transport Services,Flood Control,Tertiary Education
    Date: 2019–01–17
  23. By: Puspita, Yeni; Wicaksono, Galih (Universitas Jember)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to determine the potential of a boarding house tax and tax revenue optimization strategies boarding house at Banyuwangi Regency. The analytical method uses a quantitative approach to give a questionnaire to the boarding house owner as a taxpayer. Based on information from four sub-districts can be concluded that the total potential of boarding house tax in the Banyuwangi Regency is IDR 717,755,450.00. The strategy needs to be done by the local government to increase boarding house tax revenue are through optimizing the intensification of local tax collection, strengthening the collection process, increasing supervision, increasing administrative efficiency and reducing collection costs. This can be done by increasing coordination with related institutions in the region. The analytical method is used as a quantitative approach to give a questionnaire to the boarding house owner as a taxpayer.
    Date: 2020–02–12
  24. By: Lucas DuPriest (Consultor Privado)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the location patterns of coworking spaces, the effects of coworking spaces on the local and urban context, and coworking spaces potential opportunities for the creation of local economic development, issues that have been neglected in a Bolivian context by the existing literature. The focus of this paper is on La Paz, Bolivia’s political capital and the city in Bolivia which host the largest number of coworking spaces. The paper addresses three main questions: (1) Where are the main locations of coworking spaces in La Paz? (2) to what extent do coworking spaces generate transformative effects on the local respectively the urban scale? (e.g. physical transformations, changes in practices, community building) (3) how do coworking spaces create potential opportunities for local economic development? Desk research demonstrated that location patterns of coworking spaces are concentrated to two main commercial areas of the city, as well as to the main infrastructural and transportation axes. Field research highlighted local and urban effects, such as local community initiatives and micro-urban transformations in both spaces and practices. Lastly, field research assessed coworking spaces role in the socio-economic ecosystem. Three main typologies have been identified: the first type of coworking spaces act as “social entrepreneurship and start-up incubators” with a supportive role and closer ties to social and urban issues, the second type of coworking spaces act as “coffee and cowork incubators” providing cafés with shared workspaces, the third type of coworking spaces act as “real estate business incubators” and are mainly a commercial product responding the demand for flexible office spaces. This paper, therefore, helps to fill the gap in the literature about the location patterns of these new working spaces and their effects at different scales both in terms of spaces and practices, as well as local economic development.
    Keywords: Coworking spaces, sharing economy, location patterns, urban effects, local economic development, innovation.
    JEL: D85 L84 O12 O31
    Date: 2019–12
  25. By: Kashnitsky, Ilya (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); de Beer, Joop; van Wissen, Leo
    Abstract: Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, one may expect that differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions have increased. This paper examines whether differences in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 over the period 2003-2013 have diverged. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demography from the field of economic research. Unlike classical beta and sigma approaches to convergence, we focus not on any single summary statistic of convergence, but rather analyze the whole cumulative distribution of regions. Such an approach helps to identify which specific group of regions is responsible for the major changes. Our results suggest that, despite the expectations, there was no divergence in age structures between urban and rural regions, rather divergence happened within each of the groups of regions.
    Date: 2020–03–19
  26. By: Tushar Bharati (Economics Discipline, Business School, University of Western Australia); Seungwoo Chin (Ministry of Economy and Finance, Republic of Korea); Dawoon Jung (Korea Institute of Public Finance)
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which a supply-side intervention aimed at improving access to schools helped individuals recover from an early-life shock. Using variation in an Indonesian primary school construction program, we show that individuals who experienced low rainfall in the first year of life but were later exposed to the school construction program recovered completely from the educational deficit caused by the early-life shock. For individuals who did not experience the adverse rainfall shock, the school construction had no impact. This was, in part, a result of deteriorating school quality and increased competition to get into middle schools that affected the high-rainfall individuals disproportionately.
    Keywords: Education, early-life shocks, rainfall
    JEL: H52 I21 O15
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Nils Grashof
    Abstract: Regional clusters have become an inseparable component of modern economies. Spurred by the idea that clusters unrestrictedly encourage firm innovativeness, such as in the lighthouse example of Silicon Valley, the cluster approach has particularly gained attention among policy makers who have supported the creation and development of clusters. Nevertheless, due to a lack of holistic consideration of different influencing variables, the scientific results about the effect of clusters on firm innovative performance are highly contradictive. For companies as well as policy makers, it is therefore still difficult to evaluate the concrete consequences of being located in a cluster. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the conditions and mechanisms through which companies can gain from being located in clusters, focussing thereby in particular on possible knowledge spillovers. Therefore, based on an integration of the theoretical perspectives from the strategic management (e.g. resource-based view) and the economic geography literature (e.g. cluster approach), variables from three different levels of analysis (micro-level, meso-level and macro-level) are considered separately as well as interactively. By analysing a unique multilevel dataset of 11,889 companies in Germany, including 1,391 firms that are located within a cluster, evidence is found that being located in a cluster has indeed a positive impact on firm innovative performance. However, the results also indicate that firms benefit unequally within the cluster environment, depending on the specific firm, cluster and market/industry conditions.
    Keywords: knowledge spillovers, cluster effect, firm performance, multilevelanalysis, innovation
    JEL: C31 L10 L22 O30 R10
    Date: 2020–03
  28. By: Jovchelovitch, Sandra; Priego-Hernandez, Jacqueline; Dedios Sanguineti, Maria Cecilia; Nogueira-Teixeira, Mara Cristina
    Abstract: We focus on the notion of borders to explore how mobility and immobility in the city affect the relationship between human development and urban culture. We define borders as a relational space made of territoriality, representations, and different possibilities of mobility and immobility. Drawing on research in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro, we suggest a systematic approach to the analysis of borders and identify the socio-institutional, spatial, and symbolic elements that make them more or less porous and thus more or less amenable to human mobility. We highlight the association between porosity in city borders and human development and illustrate the model contrasting two favela communities in Rio de Janeiro. We show that participation in the sociocultural environment by favela grassroots organisations increases the porosity of internal city borders and contributes to the development of self, communities, and the city. To focus on borders, their different elements and levels of porosity means to address simultaneously the psychosocial and cultural layers of urban spaces and the novel ways through which grassroots social actors develop themselves through participation and semiotic reconstruction of the socio-cultural environment.
    Keywords: Human development; Social representations; Identity; Urban cultures; Borders; Peripherall urbanization; Social development; Favelas
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2020–02–10
  29. By: Farfan Bertran,Maria Gabriela; Mcgee,Kevin Robert; Perng,Julie Ting Ting; Vakis,Renos
    Abstract: Food consumed outside the home in restaurants or other food establishments is a growing segment of consumption in many developing countries. However, the survey methods that are utilized to collect data on expenditures on food away from home are often simplistic and could potentially result in inaccurate reporting. This study addresses the potential inaccuracy of commonly used methods and tests potentially superior methods to inform best practices when collecting data on consumption of food away from home. A household survey experiment was implemented in Hanoi, Vietnam, to test these different methods. Using a food away from home consumption diary as a benchmark, the study finds that many of the alternative methods considered -- including asking about consumption in one line (the existing practice in Vietnam) or asking each individual about their food away from home -- lead to underreporting (33 and 22 percent underestimates, respectively). Surprisingly, using one respondent and helping them with recall with a simple worksheet as well as bounding (two-visits) results in food away from home estimates that are indistinguishable from those reported in the benchmark diary. This finding implies that there is a more cost-effective way to collect accurate data on food away from home than an intensive daily diary. Furthermore, it highlights the inaccuracy associated with collecting data on consumption of food away from home from a single question in a survey. Although limited analysis can be conducted on the implications for poverty, the study finds that the profiles of the poorest households differ across different methods of collecting information on food consumed away from home.
    Keywords: Inequality,Educational Sciences,Labor&Employment Law,Health Care Services Industry,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing
    Date: 2019–01–08
  30. By: Richard Murphy (University of Texas at Austin & Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science); Gill Wyness (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London & Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science)
    Abstract: We study the UK's university application system, in which students apply based on predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. Using three years of UK university applications data we find that only 16 percent of applicants' predicted grades are accurate, with 75 percent of applicants having over-predicted grades. However, high-attaining, disadvantaged students are significantly more likely to receive pessimistic grade predictions. We show that under-predicted candidates are more likely to enroll in courses for which they are over qualified than their peers. We conclude that the use of predicted rather than actual grades has important implications for student's labour market outcomes and social mobility in general.
    Keywords: University admissions, predicted grades, socioeconomic inequality, mismatch.
    JEL: I23 I24 I28
    Date: 2020–03
  31. By: Shan Luo (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Anthony Murphy
    Abstract: We study and model the determinants of exposure at default (EAD) for large U.S. construction and land development loans from 2010 to 2017. EAD is an important component of credit risk, and commercial real estate (CRE) construction loans are more risky than income producing loans. This is the first study modeling the EAD of construction loans. The underlying EAD data come from a large, confidential supervisory dataset used in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual Comprehensive Capital Assessment Review (CCAR) stress tests. EAD reflects the relative bargaining ability and information sets of banks and obligors. We construct OLS and Tobit regression models, as well as several other machine-learning models, of EAD conversion measures, using a four-quarter horizon. The popular LEQ and CCF conversion measure is unstable, so we focus on EADF and AUF measures. Property type, the lagged utilization rate and loan size are important drivers of EAD. Changing local and national economic conditions also matter, so EAD is sensitive to macro-economic conditions. Even though default and EAD risk are negatively correlated, a conservative assumption is that all undrawn construction commitments will be fully drawn in default.
    Keywords: Credit Risk; Commercial Real Estate (CRE); Construction; Exposure at Default; EAD Conversion Measures; Macro-sensitivity; Machine Learning
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2020–03–17
  32. By: Bulusu, Vishwanath; Sengupta, Raja
    Abstract: Owing to a century of innovation in connected and automated aircraft design, for the rst time in history, air transport presents a potential competitive alternative to road, for hub-to-door and door-to-door urban services. In this article, we study the viability of air transport, for moving people and goods in an urban area, based on three metrics - enroute travel time, fuel cost and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We estimate the metrics from emission standards and operational assumptions on vehicles based on current market data and compare electric air travel to gasoline road travel. For passenger movement, air is faster than road for all distances. It fares better on fuel cost and emissions only for longer distances (specic transition distances are stated in the text). For consolidated movement of goods, air is at par with road. Finally, for movement of unconsolidated goods, air again fares better than road on all three metrics. It is also noteworthy that these results are based on a road friendly urban design. Changes in design that facilitate easier access to air based hub-to-door and door-to-door services, would only make the case stronger for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), especially with connected and automated aircraft, as the next revolution in urban transportation.
    Keywords: Engineering, Urban air mobility, drones, VTOL
    Date: 2020–03–01
  33. By: Christina Greßer; Daniel Meierrieks; David Stadelmann
    Abstract: We study the effect of temperature on economic development on the sub-national level, employing cross-sectional data for up to 15,533 sub-national units from two distinct sources. In contrast to the existing cross-country literature on the temperature-income relationship, our setting allows us to exploit sub-national heterogeneity through the inclusion of country fixed effects and mitigate omitted variable bias. We find no negative relationship between regional temperature and four different measures of economic development (per capita GDP, growth of per capita GDP, nightlights and gross cell production). We also test whether temperature is non-linearly related to income (with hotter regions being potentially particularly prone to adverse effects of temperature on income) but find no evidence in favor of such a relationship. Finally, we examine whether the effect of temperature on economic development is especially pronounced in poorer regions (e.g., due to weaker adaptation), but find no robust evidence for this proposition. In sum, our findings suggest that adaptation to temperature differences could be feasible and relevant.
    Keywords: Regional temperature; regional income; sub-national data; non-linearity
    JEL: Q54 Q56 R11
    Date: 2020–03
  34. By: Richard Peach
    Abstract: Over the next few years, large volumes of homes are likely to flow from foreclosure onto lenders? balance sheets as ?real estate owned,? or REO. Without a significant boost to demand, this large volume of ?distressed? real estate could potentially put substantial downward pressure on home prices. Accordingly, new policy initiatives are needed to increase the rate at which properties that flow into REO get reabsorbed back into use as renter- or owner-occupied units. In this post, I make the case for a tax credit for Gulf War II veterans? home purchases.
    Keywords: Foreclosures; home prices; REO
    JEL: R3
  35. By: Paola Bertoli (University of Economics, Prague); Veronica Grembi (Center for Health and Wellbeing, Princeton University, University of Milan); The Linh Bao Nguyen (University of Maryland)
    Abstract: We challenge the use of traditional measures of ethnic density| e.g., the incidence of an ethnic group on the resident population of a specific area| when testing the correlation between stronger ethnic networks and health at birth (i.e., birth weight). Using unique data from Italy on the main 44 ethnicities residing across almost 4,500 municipalities, we propose more insightful measures, as the distribution of immigrant associations or the incidence of ethnicities sharing the same language. We prove that, once fixed effects for the municipality of residence and the ethnic group are included, the correlation between ethnic density and health at birth is not statistically different from zero. However, ethnic density does channel positive effect on health at birth when a negative shock, as the 2008 Great Recession, struck the labor market. Exploiting a quasi-randomized diffusion of the recession, we find that its average negative impact on immigrant newborns was mitigated by stronger ethnic networks. We show that this can be explained by through sorting of the healthier and more fertile ethnic groups, which experienced also lower levels of in utero selection.
    Keywords: Ethnic networks, Ethnic density, Great recession, Immigrants, Low birth weight, Premature babies
    JEL: I1 I12 J15 J60
    Date: 2019–09
  36. By: Nico Pestel (Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Germany); Florian Wozny (Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Germany)
    Abstract: This paper studies health effects from restricting the access of high-emission vehicles to innercities by implementing Low Emission Zones. For identification, we exploit variation in the timing and the spatial distribution of the introduction of new Low Emission Zones across cities in Germany. We use detailed hospitalization data combined with geo-coded information on the coverage of Low Emission Zones. We find that Low Emission Zones significantly reduce levels of air pollution in urban areas and that these improvements in air quality translate into population health benefits. The number of diagnoses related to air pollution is significantly reduced for hospitals located within or in close proximity to a Low Emission Zone after it becomes effective. The results are mainly driven by reductions in chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.
    Keywords: Low Emission Zone, air pollution, health, Germany
    JEL: I18 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2019–08
  37. By: Christina (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster)
    Abstract: When connecting trains may be missed due to delays, and passengers are insufficiently flexible due to operator-tied ticketing, on-track competition may reduce effective frequency. We analyze passengers who share α-β-γô °€-preferences for being on time and a price-sensitive demand, but differ in the preferred arrival time. If the probability of missing a connection due to a delay is sufficiently high, both producer and consumer surplus in a duopoly with reduced effective frequency is smaller than in the monopoly case. Apart from reducing unpunctuality, ensuring the transferability of tickets, and switching to competition for the market, may constitute (regulatory) remedies.
    Keywords: Oligopoly model, Open access, Delays, Connecting trains, Operator-tied ticketing, Regulation
    JEL: L92 L98 R48
    Date: 2019–11
  38. By: Lennart Fernandes; Jacques Tempere
    Abstract: Empirical distributions of wealth and income can be reproduced using simplified agent-based models of economic interactions, analogous to microscopic collisions of gas particles. Building upon these models of freely interacting agents, we explore the effect of a segregated economic network in which interactions are restricted to those between agents of similar wealth. Agents on a 2D lattice undergo kinetic exchanges with their nearest neighbours, while continuously switching places to minimize local wealth differences. A spatial concentration of wealth leads to a steady state with increased global inequality and a magnified distinction between local and global measures of combatting poverty. Individual saving propensity proves ineffective in the segregated economy, while redistributive taxation transcends the spatial inhomogeneity and greatly reduces inequality. Adding fluctuations to the segregation dynamics, we observe a sharp phase transition to lower inequality at a critical temperature, accompanied by a sudden change in the distribution of the wealthy elite.
    Date: 2020–03
  39. By: Martin, Elliot; Cohen, Adam; Yassine, Ziad; Brown, Les; Shaheen, Susan
    Abstract: The Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration Program provides a venue through which integrated MOD concepts and solutions, supported through local partnerships, are demonstrated in real-world settings. For each of the 11 MOD Sandbox Demonstration projects, a MOD Sandbox Independent Evaluation was conducted that includes an analysis of project impacts from performance measures provided by the project partners and an assessment of the business models used. This document presents the Evaluation Report for the BART Integrated Carpool to Transit Access Program project. The project tested a number of hypotheses that explored the project impacts on carpooling, costs, enforcement, ridership, parking, and vehicle miles of travel (VMT). The evaluation generally found that the project increased overall carpooling to BART, commensurately increased the utilization of parking spaces by carpooling vehicles, and increased the number of people per vehicle parking at BART stations. The evaluation determined that the overall cost of enforcement per carpool space declined, primarily because spaces used for carpools increased without significantly increased enforcement burden. The evaluation did not have data available to determine whether illegal use of carpool spaces had changed significantly as a result of the project. On the related matter of enforcement, the evaluation did not have data to quantify changes in fraudulent use of carpool spaces and, instead, relied on discussions with enforcement staff, which suggested that fraudulent use had dropped as a result of the project. The evaluation did find that the project produced a wider distribution of arrival times to carpool spaces, which was an objective of BART, to permit greater flexibility of travel times in the morning for carpooling riders. The evaluation found that the project likely increased BART ridership, although not by margins large enough to be statistically noticeable within normal fluctuations of station ridership. Data were not available to determine whether this increase in ridership raised revenue that exceeded the costs of the project. However, users reported reduced personal transportation costs a result of the project. The project found that overall VMT very likely declined as result of the project due to the reduced driving alone to stations. Finally, expert interviews with project personnel produced lessons learned on implementation and policy that may inform similar projects in the future.
    Keywords: Engineering, Mobility on Demand, MOD, sandbox, shared mobility, mobility as a service, independent evaluation, transit, carpooling
    Date: 2020–02–01
  40. By: , Syuhasteti; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: This study aims to determine the affect of: 1) Professional Certification on teacher performance in SMK 6 Padang, 2) Work commitment on the performance of teachers at SMK 6 Padang, 3) Motivation of teachers performance at SMK 6 Padang, 4) Motivation as moderate relationship between certification profession and teacher performance in SMK 6 Padang, 5) Motivation as a moderate relationship between commitment and teacher performane at SMK 6 Padang. The population study was a teacher with the status of civil servants (PNS), which already passed the certification in SMK 6 Padang as many as 60 people. The results found: 1) Certification is positive and significant affect on the teacher performance at SMK 6 Padang, 2) Work commitments is positive and significant affect on the teacher performance at SMK 6 Padang, 3) Work motivation is positive and significant affect on the teacher performance at SMK 6 Padang, 4) Work motivation moderate relationship between professional certification and teacher performance in SMK 6 Padang, 5) Work motivation moderate the relationship between job commitment and teacher performance at SMK 6 Padang
    Date: 2019–11–25
  41. By: Michael J. Fleming
    Abstract: A recommended charge on settlement fails for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) took effect on February 1, 2012. This follows the successful introduction of a charge on settlement fails for U.S. Treasury securities in 2009. With a fails charge, a seller of securities that doesn?t deliver on time must pay a charge to the buyer. The practice is meant to ensure that sellers have adequate incentive to deliver securities without undue delay and thereby reduce the level of settlement fails. In this post, I discuss how and why the fails charge was implemented.
    Keywords: settlement fail; Treasury Market Practices Group; mortgage-backed security; fails charge
    JEL: G1
  42. By: Roth, Markus
    Abstract: A structural Bayesian vector autoregression model predicts that - when accompanied by a decline in consumer confidence - a one-percent decrease in house prices is associated with a contraction of economic activity by 0.2 to 1.2 percent after one year. Results point to important second-round effects and additional exercises highlight the amplifying role of (i ) the mortgage rate and (ii ) consumers' expectations. A novel econometric approach exploits information available from the cross section. Shrinkage towards a cross-country average model helps to compensate for small country samples and reduces estimation uncertainty. As a by-product, the method delivers measures of cross-country heterogeneity.
    Keywords: Bayesian model averaging,dummy observations,house price shocks
    JEL: C11 C33 E44
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Wenz, Sebastian Ernst; Hoenig, Kerstin
    Abstract: Even though social class is at least as predictive of educational achievement as ethnicity in virtually all developed countries, experimental research on discrimination in education has overwhelmingly focused on the latter. We investigate both ethnic discrimination and social class discrimination by elementary school teachers in Germany. We conceptualize discrimination as causal effects of signals and use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to disentangle ethnic from social class discrimination. In our experiment, we asked randomly sampled elementary school teachers who teach immigrants to evaluate an essay written by a fourth-grader. Employing a 2x2x3 factorial design, we varied essay quality, child's gender, and ethnic and socioeconomic background using names as stimuli. We do not find evidence for discrimination in grading. However, our findings for teachers’ expectations of children's future performance suggest a discriminatory bias along the lines of both ethnicity and social class. The effect is conditional on essay quality---it only holds true for the better essay. We interpret our findings as evidence for models that highlight situational moderators such as the richness of information and ambiguity---e.g., statistical discrimination---but as evidence against simpler models of ingroup-favoritism or outgroup derogation, e.g., social identity theory or taste discrimination.
    Date: 2019–12–24
  44. By: Levati, Lorenzo Maria; Lalanne, Marie
    Abstract: Using an original dataset on professional networks of directors sitting on the boards of large US corporations, we examine how personal relationships are used by firms to improve job match quality in the high-skill segment of the labor market. Analyzing explicit social connection data between new hires and recruiters, we are able to test predictions of well established job referral models. We find that referred executive directors have a fifteen percent longer tenure than their non-referred counterparts. Referred executive directors also tend to be similar to their referrers on multiple dimensions, giving support to network homophily hypotheses.
    Keywords: Referrals,Job Match Quality,Social Networks,Board of Directors
    JEL: L14 J63 M51
    Date: 2020
  45. By: Martin Fischer (na); Ulf-Göram Gerdtham, (Lund University, Sweden); Gawain Heckley (Lund University, Sweden); Martin Karlsson (University Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Gustav Kjellsson (University of Gothenburg, Sweden); Therese Nilsson (Lund University, Sweden)
    Abstract: We investigate two parallel school reforms in Sweden to assess the long-run health effects of education. One reform only increased years of schooling, while the other increased years of schooling but also removed tracking leading to a more mixed socioeconomic peer group. By differencing the effects of the parallel reforms, we can separate the effect of de-tracking and peers from that of more schooling. We find that the pure years of schooling reform reduced mortality and improved current health. Differencing the effects of the reforms shows significant differences in the estimated impacts, suggesting that de-tracking and subsequent peer effects resulted in worse health.
    Keywords: Health returns to education, school tracking, peer effects
    JEL: I12 I18 I26
    Date: 2019–06
  46. By: Grashof, Nils (University of Bremen)
    Abstract: In view of the undisputed promising effects of regional clusters and spurred by lighthouse examples such as Silicon Valley, cluster policies have been popular in many countries worldwide. However, in recent years the complaints have become louder about the actual economic relevance and efficiency of such regional innovation policies. In particular, the high degree of standardization in the so far applied cluster policies, focusing primarily on collaborative incentives to strengthen the relational density in clusters, have been criticized as being rather ineffective and costly to society. In order to solve this one-size-fits-all problem it has been proposed that cluster policies should instead focus on the concrete conditions and needs within regional clusters. The aim of this paper is to respond this call by considering firm-, cluster- and market-/industry-specific particularities. Based on an extensive systematic literature review and own empirical results about the relationship between clusters and firm’s performance, an overview about relevant conditions is elaborated. Such an overview makes it possible to identify potential problems, e.g. in terms of missing absorptive capacities, which cluster policy can purposeful address. For each identified problem, a potential targeted (problem-oriented) policy intervention is therefore suggested. The corresponding result of this procedure is a policy-framework that offers an increased practical value in terms of bringing forth specific adaptive cluster policies rather than one-size-fits-all policies and thereby contributing to a more sophisticated understanding of the design of cluster policies.
    Keywords: innovation policy; cluster policy; cluster effect; firm performance
    JEL: L52 L53 O25 O38 R10 R10
    Date: 2020–03–23
  47. By: Bertrand Achou
    Abstract: Housing is mostly exempted from Medicaid and Supplemental Social Insurance means tests. Reforms of this special treatment have been debated but little is known about its costs, benefits and redistributive implications. I estimate a life-cycle model of single retirees accounting for this exemption. The model shows that the homestead exemption explains important patterns of Medicaid recipiency, that it is highly valued and may be of limited cost as it incentivizes saving and reduces Medicaid recipiency at older ages. The model also predicts that removing the homestead exemption or enforcing more systematically estate recovery programs would reduce redistribution towards lower-income retirees.
    Keywords: Medicaid, Housing Savings, Retirement, Life-Cycle
    JEL: H51 I13
    Date: 2020
  48. By: Nabti, Jumana
    Abstract: The Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART), the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), and Scoop Technologies, Inc. (Scoop) partnered on a program to better integrate carpool access to public transit by matching transit passengers into carpools with a transit station as their destination using the carpool matching app Scoop and providing a seamless way to reserve and pay for highly-coveted parking spaces at BART stations. This report discusses how the project was developed and implemented and the project outcomes and lessons learned.
    Keywords: Engineering, Mobility on demand, transit, carpool, heavy rail, station access, first mile/last mile, parking, app-based rides
    Date: 2020–02–01
  49. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Wu, Wenjie
    Abstract: In this article, we study the effect of airports on local economic performance that arises from better access to domestic markets in the context of China’s recent airport network expansion. We measure access through the changes in network closeness centrality implied by the contraction in potential journey times between counties within China. Our key finding is that better access—primarily due to landside distance reductions to airports—increased manufacturing productivity. The analysis is carried out on a panel of counties built from micro data on industrial firms, administrative records and census data. To mitigate endogeneity issues, we focus on a subsample of ‘incidentally’ affected counties, whose location midway between existing and new airports implies that they were neither explicitly targeted for development nor directly affected by airport operations.
    Keywords: airports; public infrastructure; local developments; China; ES/M010341/1; ES/ J021342/1; 715147; 724880; 41971194; 41801152
    JEL: H54 O21 P25 R41
    Date: 2019–06–24
  50. By: Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
    Abstract: I set up a potential-outcomes framework to analyze spillover effects using instrumental variables. I show that intention-to-treat parameters aggregate a large number of direct and spillover effects for different compliance types, and hence they may not have a clear causal interpretation. I provide three alternative sets of conditions to point identify average direct and spillover effects on specific subpopulations, by restricting either (i) the number of spillover effects, (ii) the degree of noncompliance, or (iii) the degree of heterogeneity in average causal parameters. I propose simple estimators that are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild conditions, and illustrate my results using data from an experiment that analyzes the effect of social interactions in the household on voting behavior.
    Date: 2020–03
  51. By: James Vickery; Tara Sullivan (Research and Statistics Group)
    Abstract: U.S. banks experienced a rapid rise in loan delinquencies and defaults during the 2007-09 recession, driven by rising unemployment and falling real estate prices, among other factors. More than four years on from the official end of the recession, how do things look now?
    Keywords: loan; delinquency; bank; financial crisis
    JEL: G2
  52. By: James Vickery
    Abstract: Credit rating agencies have been widely criticized in recent years for the poor performance of their ratings on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other structured-finance bonds. In response to the concerns of investors and other market participants, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act incorporates a range of reforms likely to significantly reshape the rating industry. In this post, we discuss these reforms and their implications for investors, regulators, and the rating agencies themselves.
    Keywords: Dodd-Frank Act; mortgage-backed securities; credit rating agencies; MBS; structured finance
    JEL: G2 G1
  53. By: Janet Currie; John Voorheis; Reed Walker
    Abstract: Racial differences in exposure to ambient air pollution have declined significantly in the United States over the past 20 years. This project links restricted-access Census Bureau microdata to newly available, spatially continuous high resolution measures of ambient particulate pollution (PM2.5) to examine the underlying causes and consequences of differences in black-white pollution exposures. We begin by decomposing differences in pollution exposure into components explained by observable population characteristics (e.g., income) versus those that remain unexplained. We then use quantile regression methods to show that a significant portion of the “unexplained” convergence in black-white pollution exposure can be attributed to differential impacts of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in non-Hispanic African American and non-Hispanic white communities. Areas with larger black populations saw greater CAA-related declines in PM2.5 exposure. We show that the CAA has been the single largest contributor to racial convergence in PM2.5 pollution exposure in the U.S. since 2000 accounting for over 60 percent of the reduction.
    Date: 2020–01
  54. By: Imbert, Clement (University of Warwick and JPAL); Seror, Marlon (University of Bristol, DIAL, Institut Convergences Migrations); Zylberberg, Yanos (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Zhang, Yifan (University of Bristol, CESifo, the Alan Turing Institute)
    Abstract: How does rural-urban migration shape urban production in developing countries? We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration induced by agricultural price shocks for identification. We find that, when immigration increases, manufacturing production becomes more labor-intensive in the short run. In the longer run, firms innovate less, move away from capital-intensive technologies, and adopt final products that use low-skilled labor more intensively. We develop a model with endogenous technological choice, which rationalizes these findings, and we estimate the effect of migration on factor productivity and factor allocation across firms. JEL codes: D24; J23; J61; O15
    Date: 2020
  55. By: Tobias Schlegel; Curdin Pfister; Uschi Backes-Gellner
    Abstract: Previous economic research shows that tertiary education expansions lead to various positive first order effects, such as more patents, higher productivity or newly founded firms. However, less is known on the second order effects of tertiary education expansions, for example, the impact on regional firm development. We evaluate the impact of a tertiary education expansion on regional firm development——as measured by average profits per firm——by using administrative tax data at a geographically disaggregated level (i.e. municipalities). A policy change in Switzerland, leading to a quasi-random establishment of universities of applied sciences (UAS)-bachelor-granting three year-colleges teaching and conducting applied research-thereby serves as our case study. Depending on our regression model, we find that average profits per firm in treated municipalities, i.e., near a UAS, are between 15% to 24% higher than in non-treated municipalities after the establishment of UASs. Analyzing the dynamics of this second order effects shows that profits start to increase significantly three years after the UAS establishment and persist even in the long run.
    Keywords: Higher Education and Research Institution, Innovation, Regional Firm Development
    JEL: I23 I26 O18 O30
    Date: 2020–03
  56. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Koji Sakai (Division of Economics, Kyoto Sangyo University)
    Abstract: This paper examines capital market integration in prewar Japan, using a methodology that allows for multiple equilibria in convergence. Specifically, we apply the method of log t regression and the club convergence test proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to examine the convergence of prefectural loan rates and detect the convergence clubs that followed heterogeneous transition paths. Whereas prefectural loan rates were converging towards two equilibria from 1888–1900, all the prefectural loan rates converged towards a unique equilibrium from 1901–1926. From 1927, however, the prefectural loan rates diverged again, and four different convergence clubs emerged. Restrictive regulation imposed by the Bank Law of 1928 reduced competition in local markets, increased barriers to interregional capital mobility, and, thereby, reversed capital market integration.
    Date: 2020–03
  57. By: John Haltiwanger; James R. Spletzer
    Abstract: We find that most of the rising between firm earnings inequality that dominates the overall increase in inequality in the U.S. is accounted for by industry effects. These industry effects stem from rising inter-industry earnings differentials and not from changing distribution of employment across industries. We also find the rising inter-industry earnings differentials are almost completely accounted for by occupation effects. These results link together the key findings from separate components of the recent literature: one focuses on firm effects and the other on occupation effects. The link via industry effects challenges conventional wisdom.
    Date: 2020–02
  58. By: Jorge Luis Garcia (Clemson University); James J. Heckman (The University of Chicago)
    Abstract: This paper forecasts the life-cycle treatment effects on health of a high-quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using non-experimental data with experimental data from a midlife long-term follow-up. The follow-up incorporated a full epidemiological exam. The program mainly benefits males and significantly reduces the prevalence of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mortality across the life-cycle. For men, we estimate an average reduction of 3.8 disability-adjusted years (DALYs). The reduction in DALYs is relatively small for women. The gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) is almost enough to offset all of the costs associated with program implementation for males and half of program costs for women.
    Keywords: early childhood education, life-cycle health, long-term forecasts, program evaluation, randomized trials
    JEL: I10 J13 I28 C93
    Date: 2020–03
  59. By: Stephany, Fabian
    Abstract: This work proposes a network perspective in order to empirically identify the relevant ICT skills related to AI, to what extent they are systemically related, and how their composition varies across regions. With the example of 5,227 job openings from Germany advertised as postings in Artificial Intelligence, relevant skills are identified and connected in a network fashion. Two skills are connected, if they are jointly required by the same job advertisement. Similarly, regional skill networks can be constructed: Job postings are screened by city location and skill networks are constructed for this set of regional postings exclusively. The resulting networks depict the regional city ecosystem of AI skills currently in demand.
    Date: 2020–03–02
  60. By: Persico, Claudia (American University)
    Abstract: Although industrial plants, known as Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) sites, exist in every major city of the United States releasing billions of pounds of toxic substances annually, there is little evidence about how these pollutants might harm child development and children's long run outcomes. Using the detailed geocoded data that follows national representative cohorts of children born to the NLSY respondents over time with detailed information on families, locations, health, disability and labor market outcomes, I compare siblings who were gestating before versus after a TRI site opened or closed within one mile of their home. In other words, I compare siblings in the same family whose family does not move between births where one or more child was exposed to TRI pollution during gestation and other siblings were not exposed because the plant opened or closed in between the conceptions of different children in the same family. I find that children who were exposed prenatally to TRI pollution have lower wages, are more likely to be in poverty as adults, have fewer years of completed education, are less likely to graduate high school, and are more likely to have a disability.
    Keywords: air pollution, academic achievement, child health
    JEL: Q53 I24 I14
    Date: 2020–02
  61. By: Anna Getmansky (London School of Economics and Political Science); Konstantinos Matakos (King’s College London); Tolga Sinmazdemir (SOAS University of London)
    Abstract: How can refugees overcome barriers to integration in the host country? Refugees often face economic, social, and political discrimination by the local population. Ethnicity, religion, and refugees' past involvement in political violence can further exacerbate these biases. We examine whether host country's citizens reduce anti-refugee attitudes if they know that refugees have made proactive effort to integrate by forging social ties with the locals and learning the local language. Unlike most of the previous studies, we examine a non-Western country-Turkey-that hosts the highest number of Syrian refugees (3.6 million). We field a conjoint survey experiment-a method previously applied to study migration attitudes in the West-to 2,362 respondents in Turkey, presenting them with profiles of Syrian refugees that vary by demographics, ethnicity, religion, and involvement in the Syrian civil war. Respondents rank each profile in order of support for social, economic and political integration. We find that although Turkey is a Muslim country hosting predominantly co-religious refugees, not all refugees are perceived equally. There is a significant bias against Arabs and Kurds compared to Turkomans, and against former pro-regime fighters. Although information on refugees' effort strengthens support for their integration, not all disadvantaged groups benefit equally from it. Such information has a more robust effect on boosting support for Kurdish refugees, and has a limited effect on support for integration of Arabs and former pro-regime fighters. Importantly, information on proactive effort also strengthens support for groups that experience less discrimination (Turkomans and non-fighters), thereby potentially exacerbating inequalities among the refugees.
    Keywords: Turkey; Syria, Violence, Geography, Infrastructure, Political Development, Demographic/Socioeconomic
    JEL: F22 Z13
    Date: 2020–02
  62. By: Maximilian Chami (BTU - Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg]); Gabriel Kaminyoge (UDOM - University of Dodoma [Tanzanie])
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the closed House of Wonders Museum in the tourism industry of Stone Town, Zanzibar. The paper aims to propose the best practices taken into account due to the impact raised by the closure of the Museum. There has been no clear information on the overall situation which faces the site since 2012 when the Museum closed. Data collected through mixed methods, including the sample size of 105 tourists who visited the House of Wonders Museum, 8 Government Official, 6 Tour Guides and 8 Tour Operators. The findings show that the closed museum has affected the level of tourists' satisfaction, tour operators, community and tour guides economically. The paper recommends quick rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Museum to save the integrity and authenticity of this World Heritage Site.
    Keywords: House of Wonders,Tourism,Zanzibar Stone Town,Museum,Heritage
    Date: 2019–04–15
  63. By: Reddy, A Amarender
    Abstract: The rebuilding of livelihoods in the involuntary resettlement is commonly based on providing compensation to those who are displaced along with the creation of employment and income opportunities to sustain their livelihoods. Unlike rural resettlement, urban resettlement is very complex as it involves providing business opportunities, urban-based employment and income. The article examined the resettlement of displaced families affected by Tehri Hydro Power Project by constructing an entirely new town ‘New Tehri Town’ (NTT) by using impoverishment risks and reconstruction (IRR) framework developed by Cernea (1997, World Development, 25(10), 1569–1587). The result shows that projectaffected families (PAFs) are better off in NTT in terms of community amenities, income and employment opportunities and in terms of increase in value of houses, but traditional employment opportunities have been lost, they have to search for new jobs and livelihoods. The R&R policies in urban areas should focus on improving skill sets of the people along with increased income and employment opportunities through the development of market and business opportunities.
    Date: 2018–03–30
  64. By: Phoebe Koundouri; Lydia Papadaki
    Date: 2020–03
  65. By: Bakker, Jan; Maurer, Stephan; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen; Rauch, Ferdinand
    Abstract: We study the causal relationship between geographic connectedness and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a geography based measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. We relate connectedness to economic activity, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites. We find an association between better connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water routinely on a big scale. We corroborate these findings at world level.
    Keywords: urbanization; locational fundamentals; trade; ES/M010341/1
    JEL: F14 O47
    Date: 2020–01–23

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