|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Arpit Gupta; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Constantine Kontokosta |
| Abstract: | Transit infrastructure is a critical asset for economic activity yet costly to build in dense urban environments. We measure the benefit of the Second Avenue Subway extension in New York City by analyzing local real estate prices which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find that price increase by 10%, creating $7 billion in new property value. Using cell phone ping data, we document substantial reductions in commuting time especially among subway users, offering a plausible mechanism for the price gains. Higher prices reflect both higher rents and lower risk. Infrastructure improvements thus lower the riskiness of real estate investments. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway is captured by local government through higher property tax revenue, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Targeted property tax increases may help capture more of the value created, and serve as a useful funding tool. |
| JEL: | G10 G18 R3 R38 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26789&r=all |
| By: | Bird,Julia Helen; Venables,Anthony J. |
| Abstract: | As one of world's fastest growing cities, Dhaka faces acute challenges in housing its growing population and developing a more productive economy. Central to this is the scarcity of high-quality urban land. Yet a vast tract of land near the heart of the city, East Dhaka, currently remains predominantly agricultural and undeveloped as a consequence of flooding. This paper uses a computable spatial general equilibrium model that captures the economic geography of the city, to estimate the economic returns of coordinated action to develop this land. The model captures different productive sectors, household skill levels, and types of housing. Firms and residents choose their location within the city given the transport network and land availability, generating a pattern of commercial and residential land-use. The paper estimates the incremental impacts on income, employment and population of an embankment and other flood protection measures to protect this land, as well as from improvement in transport infrastructure and targeted support for economic development in East Dhaka. |
| Keywords: | Transport Services,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Housing,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Governance and Management,Pulp&Paper Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,General Manufacturing,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Food&Beverage Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8762&r=all |
| By: | Miyuki Hino; Marshall Burke |
| Abstract: | Floods and other climate hazards pose a widespread and growing threat to housing and infrastructure around the world. By incorporating climate risk into asset prices, markets can discourage excessive development in hazardous areas. However, the extent to which markets actually price these risks remains poorly understood. Here we measure the effect of information about flood risk on residential property values in the United States. Using multiple empirical approaches and two decades of sales data covering the universe of homes in the US, we find little evidence that housing markets fully price information about flood risk in aggregate. However, the price penalty for flood risk is larger for commercial buyers and in states where sellers must disclose information about flood risk to potential buyers, suggesting that policies to improve risk communication could influence market outcomes. Our findings indicate that floodplain homes in the US are currently overvalued by a total of $34B, raising concerns about the stability of real estate markets as climate risks become more salient and severe. |
| JEL: | Q54 R3 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26807&r=all |
| By: | Damien Puy; Anil Ari; Yu Shi |
| Abstract: | We test whether foreign demand matters for local house prices in the US using an identification strategy based on the existence of “home bias abroad” in international real estate markets. Following an extreme political crisis event abroad, a proxy for a strong and exogenous shift in foreign demand, we show that house prices rise disproportionately more in neighbourhoods with a high concentration of population originating from the crisis country. This effect is strong, persistent, and robust to the exclusion of major cities. We also show that areas that were already expensive in the late 1990s have experienced the strongest foreign demand shocks and the biggest drop in affordability between 2000 and 2017. Our findings suggest a non-trivial causal effect of foreign demand shocks on local house prices over the last 20 years, especially in neighbourhoods that were already rather unaffordable for the median household. |
| Date: | 2020–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:20/43&r=all |
| By: | Haixiao, Pan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ya, Gao (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | High-speed rail (HSR) construction is continuing at a rapid pace in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to improve rail’s competitiveness in the passenger market and facilitate inter-city accessibility. To take advantage of spillover effects, bring economic cohesion at the local level, and recover the local matching investment in infrastructure, all cities have planned new towns around HSR stations. Speeding up HSR construction has required the development of many standardized technologies and processes. Plans for HSR stations usually situate them in suburbs, far from city centers, to reduce the cost of property right of way relating to the removal of housing or industry as well as to lower the complexities in negotiations. However, city centers remain the main starting and destination terminals for most HSR passengers, especially businessmen who use HSR frequently. Besides, large railway stations in suburbs, providing a comfortable waiting space for passengers, have prolongate the travel time for HSR users. A reliable and high-quality public transit service, connecting an HSR station and the city center at the launch of HSR operations, is essential to curb the increase in car/taxi use. Studies have also suggested that, instead of building one big HSR station in the suburb of a metropolis, constructing multiple stations in the vicinity of city centers will greatly reduce the access/egress time, thereby enhancing travel efficiency. |
| Keywords: | high-speed rail; multimodal intercity transport; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | L92 R11 R40 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0959&r=all |
| By: | Adam M. Guren (NBER; Boston University); Alisdair McKay (Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University); Emi Nakamura; Jon Steinsson |
| Abstract: | We provide new time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We use three identification strategies: OLS with a rich set of controls, the Saiz housing supply elasticity instrument, and a new instrument that exploits systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles. All three identification strategies indicate that housing wealth elasticities were if anything slightly smaller in the 2000s than in earlier time periods. This implies that the important role housing played in the boom and bust of the 2000s was due to larger price movements rather than an increase in the sensitivity of consumption to house prices. Full-sample estimates based on our new instrument are smaller than recent estimates, though they remain economically important. We find no significant evidence of a boom-bust asymmetry in the housing wealth elasticity. We show that these empirical results are consistent with the behavior of the housing wealth elasticity in a standard life-cycle model with borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, illiquid housing, and long-term mortgages. In our model, the housing wealth elasticity is relatively insensitive to changes in the distribution of LTV for two reasons: First, low-leverage homeowners account for a substantial and stable part of the aggregate housing wealth elasticity; Second, a rightward shift in the LTV distribution increases not only the number of highly sensitive constrained agents but also the number of underwater agents whose consumption is insensitive to house prices. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; House prices; Leverage |
| JEL: | E21 E32 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:87573&r=all |
| By: | Konan Alain N'ghauran (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Corinne Autant-Bernard (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing body of literature evaluating cluster policies, it still remains difficult to establish conclusively their structural effects on regional innovation networks. Focusing on the French cluster policy during the period 2005-2010, this study aims at evaluating how cluster policies influence the structure of local innovation networks following network topologies that may be beneficial for regional innovation. Based on a panel data of four periods and 94 NUTS3 French regions, we estimate spatial Durbin models, allowing us to identify direct, indirect and total effects of cluster policies. The results suggest that cluster policies can result in both positive and negative total effects on the structure of local innovation networks depending on regions' technological specialisation. Beyond the heterogeneous effects, the results also highlight that cluster policies may lead to a regional competition for the strengthening of innovation networks. This finding echoed previous research pointing out the possible 'beggar-thy-neighbour' effects of cluster policies. |
| Keywords: | Cluster,Regional innovation,Innovation network,Policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02482565&r=all |
| By: | Sebastian Heise; Tommaso Porzio |
| Abstract: | We develop a job ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and regions, and estimate it on matched employer-employee data to study the large and persistent real wage gap between East and West Germany. We find that the wage gap is mostly due to firms paying higher wages per efficiency unit in West Germany and quantify a rich set of frictions preventing worker reallocation across space and across firms. We find that three spatial barriers impede East Germans’ ability to migrate West: migration costs, a preference to live in the East, and fewer job opportunities received from the West. The estimated model highlights that the spatial barriers needed to generate the large wage gap between East and West are small relative to the frictions preventing the reallocation of labor across firms. Therefore, policies that directly promote regional integration lead to smaller aggregate benefits than equally costly hiring subsidies within region. |
| Keywords: | Labor mobility; Regional integration; Spatial wage gaps |
| JEL: | J60 O10 R10 |
| Date: | 2019–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:87578&r=all |
| By: | Börjesson, Maria (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Johansson, Magnus (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Kågeson, Per (Research Programme in Transport Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a method for evaluating social benefits of electric roads and apply it to the Swedish highway network. Together with estimated investments costs this can be used to produce a cost benefit analysis. An electric road is characterized by high economies of scale (high investment cost and low marginal cost) and considerable economies of scope (the benefit per kilometre electric road depends on the size of the network), implying that the market will produce a smaller network of electric roads, or charge higher prices for its use, than what is welfare optimal. For this reason, it is relevant for governments to consider investing in electric roads, making the cost-benefit analysis a key decision support. We model the behaviour of the carriers using the Swedish national freight model system, SAMGODS, determining the optimal shipment sizes and optimal transport chains, including mode and vehicle type. We find that if the user charge is set as to optimize social welfare, the revenue will not fully cover the investment cost of the electric road. If they are instead set to optimize profit for the operator of the electric road operator, we find that the revenue will cover the costs if the electric road network is large enough. Electric roads appear to provide a cost-effective means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from heavy trucks. In a scenario where the expansion connects the three biggest cities in Sweden, emissions will be cut by one-third of the overall emissions from heavy trucks in Sweden. The main argument against a commitment to electric roads is that investment and maintenance costs are uncertain and that, in the long run, battery development or hydrogen fuel cells can reduce the benefit of such roads. |
| Keywords: | Pricing and economic analysis; Cost-benefit analysis; Electric road; Carbon emissions; Freight transport; E-motorways |
| JEL: | R12 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2020–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2020_001&r=all |
| By: | Wetwitoo, Jetpan (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between high-speed rail (HSR) and agglomeration economy in the scope of specialization and diversity to answer two questions: first, to determine whether specialization or diversity promotes economic productivity, and second, to determine whether HSR promotes specialization or diversity. Specialization/diversity agglomeration index based on the coefficient of variation of localization agglomeration is proposed to measure city’s specialization and diversity. Our analysis utilizes data of agglomeration across 17 industrial sectors in Japanese municipality level. Depending on the definition of agglomeration diversity, one of the results reveals a U-curve relationship as productivity is plotted in Y-axis and specialization agglomeration in X-axis. In other words, both specialization and diversity benefit to economic productivity. Yet, a city which is not specialized and not with a high level of industrial diversity will be the loser in the economy. For the second question, based on the assumption of a quadratic function, HSR could affect city’s specialization and diversity based on the distance to HSR service. From the results, HSR promotes industrial diversity in the city with HSR service, and the city located around 540 km away from HSR service, while HSR promotes city’s specialization in the city located around 270 km away from HSR service. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economy; diversity; economic productivity; high-speed rail; specialization |
| JEL: | R11 R30 R40 |
| Date: | 2019–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0954&r=all |
| By: | Joseph Tracy; Donghoon Lee |
| Abstract: | In our previous post, we presented a new measure of first-time homebuyers. In this post, we use this improved measure to describe the characteristics of first-time buyers and how those characteristics change over time. Having an accurate assessment of first-time buyers is important given that the aim of many housing policies is to support the transition from renting to owning. A proper assessment of these housing policies requires an understanding of the impact of these policies on the share of first-time buyers and the characteristics of these buyers. Our third post will directly examine the sustainability of homeownership by first-time buyers. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Credit Panel; mortgage; first time home buyer |
| JEL: | D1 R3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87325&r=all |
| By: | Kahn,Matthew Edwin; Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Soppelsa,Maria Edisa |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the recent literature exploring the causes of urban pollution in the developing world and the implications of such pollution for a city's competitiveness. Within a system of cities, cities compete for jobs and people. Those cities that specialize in heavy industrial activity will gain from a manufacturing boom but are more likely to be polluted than a city that specializes in the service economy and one that makes investments in regulations to reduce the social costs of power generation, transportation, and household services. The paper explores three main questions. First, why does pollution inhibit urban competitiveness? Second, why is this effect likely to grow in importance over time? Third, why have cities been slow to adopt cost-effective regulatory strategies? |
| Date: | 2019–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8739&r=all |
| By: | Hair, Nicole L. (University of South Carolina); Gruber, Anja (University of Colorado, Boulder); Urban, Carly (Montana State University) |
| Abstract: | Nonmedical exemptions from school-entry vaccine mandates are receiving increased policy and public health scrutiny. This paper examines how expanding the availability of exemptions influences vaccination rates in early childhood and academic achievement in middle school. We leverage 2003 legislation that granted personal belief exemptions (PBE) in Texas and Arkansas, two states the previously allowed exemptions only for medical or religious regions. We find that PBE decreased vaccination coverage among black and low-income preschoolers by 16.1% and 8.3%, respectively. Furthermore, we find that those cohorts affected by the policy change in early childhood performed less well on standardized tests of academic achievement in middle school. Estimated effects on mathematics and English Language Arts test scores were largest for black students, especially those residing in economically disadvantaged counties. |
| Keywords: | vaccination, state mandates, nonmedical exemptions, test scores |
| JEL: | H75 I12 I18 I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12978&r=all |
| By: | Crawfurd, Lee (Center for Global Development); Pugatch, Todd (Oregon State University) |
| Abstract: | The types of workers recruited into teaching and their allocation across classrooms can greatly influence a country's stock of human capital. This paper considers how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries. Schools are a major source of employment in developing countries, particularly for women and professionals. Teacher compensation is also a large share of public budgets. Teacher labor markets in developing countries are likely to grow further as teacher quality becomes a greater focus of education policy, including under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Theoretical approaches to teacher labor markets have emphasized the role of non-market institutions, such as government and unions, and other frictions in teacher employment and wages. The evidence supports the existence and importance of such frictions in how teacher labor markets function. In many countries, large gaps in pay and quality exist between teachers and other professionals; teachers in public and private schools; teachers on permanent and temporary contracts; and teachers in urban and rural areas. Teacher supply increases with wages, though teacher quality does not necessarily increase. However, most evidence comes from studies of short-term effects among existing teachers. Evidence on effects in the long-term, on the supply of new teachers, or on changes in non-pecuniary compensation is scarcer. |
| Keywords: | teacher labor markets, developing countries, public sector labor markets, education, public service delivery |
| JEL: | J44 J45 J31 J21 J23 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12985&r=all |
| By: | Dario Diodato; Ricardo Hausmann; Frank Neffke |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of return migration from the U.S. to Mexico on the economies of Mexican cities. In principle, returnees increase the local labor supply and therefore put pressure on wages and employment rates of locals. However, having worked in the technologically more advanced US economy, they may also possess skills that complement the skills of local workers or even bring in new organizational and technological know-how that leads to productivity improvements in Mexico. Using an instrument based on involuntary return migration due to deportation by US authorities, we find evidence in support of both effects. Returnees affect wages of locals in different ways: whereas workers who share the returnees' occupations experience a fall in wages, workers in other occupations see their wages rise. However, the latter, positive, effect is easily overlooked, because it is highly localized: it only affects coworkers within the same city-industry cell. Moreover, both, positive and negative, wage effects are transitory and eventually disappear. In contrast, by raising the employment levels of the industry in which they find jobs, returnees permanently alter a city's industry composition. |
| Keywords: | return migration, skills, employment, wages, Mexico, United States |
| JEL: | F22 J21 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2012&r=all |
| By: | Bakker,Jan David; Parsons,Christopher Robert; Rauch,Ferdinand Gordian |
| Abstract: | Although Africa has experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades, we know little about the process of urbanization across the continent. The paper exploits a natural experiment, the abolition of South African pass laws, to explore how exogenous population shocks affect the spatial distribution of economic activity. Under apartheid, black South Africans were severely restricted in their choice of location and many were forced to live in homelands. Following the abolition of apartheid they were free to migrate. Given a migration cost in distance, a town nearer to the homelands will receive a larger inflow of people than a more distant town following the removal of mobility restrictions. Drawing upon this exogenous variation, the authors study the effect of migration on urbanization in South Africa. While they find that on average there is no endogenous adjustment of population location to a positive population shock, there is heterogeneity in these results. Cities that start off larger do grow endogenously in the wake of a migration shock, while rural areas that start off small do not respond in the same way. This heterogeneity indicates that population shocks lead to an increase in urban relative to rural populations. Overall, the evidence suggests that exogenous migration shocks can foster urbanization in the medium run. |
| Keywords: | Employment and Unemployment,Armed Conflict,Construction Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Food&Beverage Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Pulp&Paper Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing,Skills Development and Labor Force Training |
| Date: | 2019–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8764&r=all |
| By: | Lisa D. Cook; Maggie E.C. Jones; David Rosé; Trevon D. Logan |
| Abstract: | Jim Crow segregated African Americans and whites by law and practice. The causes and implications of the associated de jure and de facto residential segregation have received substantial attention from scholars, but there has been little empirical research on racial discrimination in public accommodations during this time period. We digitize the Negro Motorist Green Books, important historical travel guides aimed at helping African Americans navigate segregation in the pre-Civil Rights Act United States. We create a novel panel dataset that contains precise geocoded locations of over 4,000 unique businesses that provided non-discriminatory service to African American patrons between 1938 and 1966. Our analysis reveals several new facts about discrimination in public accommodations that contribute to the broader literature on racial segregation. First, the largest number of Green Book establishments were found in the Northeast, while the lowest number were found in the West. The Midwest had the highest number of Green Book establishments per black resident and the South had the lowest. Second, we combine our Green Book estimates with newly digitized county-level estimates of hotels to generate the share of non-discriminatory formal accommodations. Again, the Northeast had the highest share of non-discriminatory accommodations, with the South following closely behind. Third, for Green Book establishments located in cities for which the Home Owner’s Loan Corporation (HOLC) drew residential security maps, the vast majority (nearly 70 percent) are located in the lowest-grade, redlined neighborhoods. Finally, Green Book presence tends to correlate positively with measures of material well-being and economic activity. |
| JEL: | J15 L83 N32 N82 N92 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26819&r=all |
| By: | Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Soppelsa,Maria Edisa |
| Abstract: | As cities grow, the negative effects of congestion start to play their part, often affecting the cities'ability to become and remain competitive. Although many studies have focused on these negative effects, the links between pollution and city competitiveness are less explored. This paper focuses on this relationship, particularly the links between air pollution and city growth, and how it correlates with city competitiveness. Although high-income cities are usually better at managing pollution, the paper finds successful examples of fast-growing, lower-income cities that are able to tackle this issue. The evidence shows that cities can be competitive and still manage pollution, as long as they have a proactive attitude and focus on developing a green agenda to support this journey. |
| Keywords: | Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Brown Issues and Health,Regional Urban Development,Global Environment,Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2019–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8740&r=all |
| By: | Adrian Alter; Elizabeth M. Mahoney |
| Abstract: | To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt. |
| Date: | 2020–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:20/42&r=all |
| By: | Bassem Haidar (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Pascal da Costa (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Jan Lepoutre; Yannick Perez (UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11) |
| Abstract: | The decarbonization of the transportation sector needs a major rise in the electric vehicle (EV) market share in order to totally switch into electromobility. Boosting the electric vehicle market requires a cooperation between automotive industries by developing this technology especially batteries, charging infrastructure by installing more charging points especially fast ones and EV owners by giving them subsidies and offers. We collected data from different sources to analyze PEV sales in French departments and to know the reason that has the highest impact on the client's choice. Based on existing literature, we identified the most important factors and tried to build the French econometrics model using RStudio. Our model found that the vehicle price, autonomy, department's population density, local subsidies and fuel price to be significant and positively correlated to local PEV sales. However, charging infrastructure had negative impact and no significancy on the electromobility market. Results suggest boosting the study on a more detailed concept such as cities and suburbs as well as adding factors that reflect a department's and a client's characteristics in order to conclude with results that are more accurate. |
| Keywords: | Charging infrastructure,Electric vehicles,Econometrics study,Subsidies,Incentives |
| Date: | 2019–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02438211&r=all |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kumo, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | This study examines the regional determinants of marriage rates in Russia using panel data from 2005 to 2015. The estimation results of a system generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic model strongly supported our predictions concerning the impact of migration inflow, employment, educational opportunities, and housing supply, on marriage rates. Further, significant differences exist between the estimation results for the entire federation and those for federal district groups, indicating considerable difficulties in designing effective nationwide policy measures to promote family formation. |
| Keywords: | marriage rates, regional determinants, dynamic panel data estimation, Russia |
| JEL: | C23 J11 J12 P25 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:85&r=all |
| By: | John M. Barrios; Yael Hochberg; Hanyi Yi |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of the introduction of ridehailing in U.S. cities on fatal traffic accidents. The arrival of ridehailing is associated with an increase of approximately 3% in the number of fatalities and fatal accidents, for both vehicle occupants and pedestrians. The effects persist when controlling for proxies for smartphone adoption patterns. Consistent with ridehailing increasing congestion and road usage, we find that introduction is associated with an increase in arterial vehicle miles traveled, excess gas consumption, and annual hours of delay in traffic. On the extensive margin, ridehailing’s arrival is also associated with an increase in new car registrations. These effects are higher in cities with prior higher use of public transportation and carpools, consistent with a substitution effect, and in larger cities. These effects persist over time. Back-of-the-envelope estimates of the annual cost in human lives range from $5.33B to $13.24B. |
| JEL: | I00 O3 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26783&r=all |
| By: | Peter Christensen; Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri; Christopher Timmins |
| Abstract: | Local pollution exposures disproportionately impact minority households, but the root causes remain unclear. This study conducts a correspondence experiment on a major online housing platform to test whether housing discrimination constrains minority access to housing options in markets with significant sources of airborne chemical toxics. We find that renters with African American or Hispanic/LatinX names are 41% less likely than renters with White names to receive responses for properties in low exposure locations. We find no evidence of discriminatory constraints in high exposure locations, indicating that discrimination increases relative access to housing choices at elevated exposure risk. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26805&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin J. Keys; Neale Mahoney; Hanbin Yang |
| Abstract: | We use credit report data for a representative sample of 35 million individuals over 2000-2016 to examine consumer financial distress in the United States. We show there are large, persistent geographic disparities in consumer financial distress, with low levels in the Upper Midwest and high levels in the Deep South. To better understand these patterns, we conduct a "movers" analysis that examines how financial distress evolves when people move to places with different levels of financial distress. For collections and default, there is only weakly convergence following a move, suggesting these types of financial distress are not primarily caused by place-based factors (such as local economic conditions, loan supply, and state laws) but instead reflect person-based characteristics (such as financial literacy and risk preferences). In contrast, for personal bankruptcy, we find a sizable place-based effect, which is consistent with anecdotal evidence on how local legal factors influence the bankruptcy filing decision. Individual characteristics determine whether you get into financial distress, while place-based factors determine whether you use bankruptcy to get out. |
| JEL: | K35 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26808&r=all |
| By: | Peter Bednarek; Daniel Marcel te Kaat; Chang Ma; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | We study how an aggregate bank flow shock impacts German cities' GDP growth depending on the state of their local real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in non-developable area for the construction of a measure of exposure to local real estate market tightness. We estimate that the German cities most exposed to real estate market pressure grew 2.5-5.0 percentage points more than the least exposed ones, cumulatively, during the 2009-2014 period. Bank flow shocks shift credit to firms with more collateral. More collateral also leads firms to hire and invest more in response to these shocks. |
| JEL: | D22 D53 E22 E3 E44 F3 G01 G15 G21 R3 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26820&r=all |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Roth, Duncan; Seidel, Tobias |
| Abstract: | We show that the minimum wage introduced in Germany in 2015 led to spatial wage convergence, in particular in the left tail of the distribution, without reducing relative employment in low-wage regions within the first two years. |
| Keywords: | difference-in differences; employment; Germany; minimum wage |
| JEL: | J31 J58 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:90213&r=all |
| By: | Sen Li; Kameshwar Poolla; Pravin Varaiya |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the joint impact of congestion surcharge and wage regulation on transportation network companies (TNCs). These impacts are assessed by a market equilibrium model that captures the incentives of the passengers, drivers, and the platform, and accounts for the congestion externalities of the TNC vehicles. Under a wage floor on TNC drivers, we consider two schemes of congestion surcharges: (a) surcharge based on each TNC trip, and (b) surcharge based on each vehicle hour (regardless of whether the vehicle has a passenger or not). We show that both congestion surcharges can reduce the TNC ridership, but their impacts are mitigated by the wage floor and cannot significantly reduce the number of TNC vehicles. In contrast to the trip-based surcharge, we advocate the time-based congestion surcharge, which penalizes idle vehicle time and improves the vehicle occupancy. Through a case study for San Francisco, we show that the time-based congestion surcharge offers a Pareto improvement. It leads to higher passenger surplus, higher driver surplus, higher platform profits, and higher tax revenue for the city. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.02550&r=all |
| By: | Takeshi Kato; Yasuyuki Kudo; Hiroyuki Mizuno; Yoshinori Hiroi |
| Abstract: | To gain insights into the regional inequality problem, we proposed new regional asset exchange models based on existing kinetic income-exchange models in economic physics by setting spatial exchange range and adding bias to asset fraction probability in equivalent exchanges. Simulations of asset distribution and Gini coefficients showed that suppressing regional inequality requires, first, increasing the intra-regional economic circulation rate, and, second, narrowing down the exchange range (inter-regional economic zone). Avoiding overconcentration of assets due to repeated exchanges, however, requires, thirdly, adding local support bias (distribution norm). A comprehensive solution incorporating these three measures enabled shifting the asset distribution from overconcentration to exponential distribution, eventually approaching the normal distribution and further reducing the Gini coefficient. Going forward, we will further expand the models by setting production capacity based on assets, path dependency on two-dimensional space, and bias according to disparity, and verify measures to reduce regional inequality in actual communities. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2002.09272&r=all |
| By: | Roy, Sandeepan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Maji, Avijit (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | High-speed railway (HSR) planners aim to select locations that optimize the overall utility or benefit of HSR stations by satisfying various desirable requirements. Among other factors, accessibility and environmental impact are important considerations for selecting a location for an HSR station. The desirable requirements of these two factors include improved access to, and intermodal integration with, existing transportation facilities and services (like airports, train stations, and bus stops); avoidance of environmentally sensitive areas (such as water bodies, wetlands, and forest) and land with higher right-of-way costs; and accommodation of strategic necessities (for example, proximity to city centers and socioeconomic development hubs). We quantify the overall utility of an HSR station by analyzing the extent to which a location satisfies these desirable requirements. For this, suitable utility functions were developed and evaluated. To obtain individual utility scores, we assigned appropriate weights based on relative importance. We then estimated the overall utility of a location as the weighted summation of these utility scores. A GIS-based analytical framework was specifically developed for geo-processing, mapping, and visualization of the geospatial data analysis and result representation. This utility-based quantification and identification process would be useful to planners in assessing an area and determining the most suitable station locations for an HSR project. The proposed model was used to identify the potential station locations along the Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR corridor in India and to compare the obtained results with the planned locations of the project. |
| Keywords: | high-speed rail stations; geographic information systems; environmental impact; accessibility; utility functions |
| JEL: | L92 R11 R41 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0953&r=all |
| By: | Mohsen Momenitabar; Raj Bridgelall; Zhila Dehdari Ebrahimi; Mohammad Arani |
| Abstract: | The installation of high-speed rail in the world during the last two decades resulted in significant socioeconomic and environmental changes. The U.S. has the longest rail network in the world, but the focus is on carrying a wide variety of loads including coal, farm crops, industrial products, commercial goods, and miscellaneous mixed shipments. Freight and passenger services in the U.S. dates to 1970, with both carried out by private railway companies. Railways were the main means of transport between cities from the late 19th century through the middle of the 20th century. However, rapid growth in production and improvements in technologies changed those dynamics. The fierce competition for comfortability and pleasantness in passenger travel and the proliferation of aviation services in the U.S. channeled federal and state budgets towards motor vehicle infrastructure, which brought demand for railroads to a halt in the 1950s. Presently, the U.S. has no high-speed trains, aside from sections of Amtrak s Acela line in the Northeast Corridor that can reach 150 mph for only 34 miles of its 457-mile span. The average speed between New York and Boston is about 65 mph. On the other hand, China has the world s fastest and largest high-speed rail network, with more than 19,000 miles, of which the vast majority was built in the past decade. Japan s bullet trains can reach nearly 200 miles per hour and dates to the 1960s. That system moved more than 9 billion people without a single passenger casualty. In this systematic review, we studied the effect of High-Speed Rail (HSR) on the U.S. and other countries including France, Japan, Germany, Italy, and China in terms of energy consumption, land use, economic development, travel behavior, time use, human health, and quality of life. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.04452&r=all |
| By: | Escobar Pradilla,Laura Manuela; Pedraza Morales,Alvaro Enrique |
| Abstract: | Active investors often generate inferior returns. Social interactions might exacerbate this tendency, but the causal link between peer effects and active trading is difficult to identify empirically. This paper exploits the exogenous assignment of students to classrooms in a large-scale financial education initiative to evaluate the transmission of trading strategies among individual investors. The paper shows that students assigned to groups where classmates have more trading background, are more likely to start trading after completing the program. These social effects are stronger when peers have experienced favorable outcomes. The paper documents a negative consequence from social interactions: students that registered for courses where peer returns are large, generate lower trading profits than other investors. The evidence is consistent with social learning under biased information -- people share their most successful experiences, encouraging stock trading among uninformed investors. The results shed light on the role of selective communication in the transmission and adoption of ideas, and more importantly, in the behavior of people expose to biased information. The findings show that social learning can lead to misguided decisions when peer choices are not accurately observed by members of the social network. |
| Keywords: | International Trade and Trade Rules,Educational Sciences,Gender and Development,Financial Literacy,Educational Institutions&Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers |
| Date: | 2019–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8767&r=all |
| By: | Laurent Guihéry (UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine); Michal Taracha |
| Abstract: | Poland plays an important role in the European Union. After many years of occupation until regaining the independence in 1918, in its long history, Poland is now a bridge between Western Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Ukraine. The country is largely benefiting from this situation: Poland is the first beneficiary of the EU Cohesion Policy funds, well ahead of Italy and Spain (Appendix 1). New roads are being built, railway tracks are being renovated, city centers and other degraded districts are being revitalized. Polish countryside and the main cities are flourishing. In the field of transport infrastructure, the paper shows that the regional policy of the European Union has reduced the original inequalities in the rail and road infrastructure development inherited from the Partitions of Poland between Prussia, Austria and Russia. With regard to the railway infrastructure, we notice that track closures is also significant in this convergence. The paper also indicates a problem with the accessibility of medium-sized towns that lost their status of a voivodeship capital in 1999. One of the functional problems of these cities, apart from the demographic and financial problems, is their poor road and rail accessibility. The paper is then expressing some critics on the model of polarization-diffusion model in the European regional development policy, especially for Eastern Poland which is not so much benefiting from the regional policy of the EU. In conclusion, convergence towards the EU average still occurs in Poland. |
| Keywords: | N14,N13,H76,R58,Mots-clés Pologne,Infrastructures,Convergence,Politique régionale,Union Européenne Keywords Poland,Infrastructure,Regional policy,European Union Classification JEL : R4 |
| Date: | 2019–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02306359&r=all |
| By: | Preeya Mohan (Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, The University of the West Indies); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Eric Strobl (Department of Economics, Bern University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate whether destruction due to natural disasters induces industries to increase their production efficiency using the case of prewar Japan, a period of frequent disasters and technological upgrading. To this end, we compile a regional sectoral data set of natural disaster destruction and production for machinery and textiles during the period. We then employ a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to estimate the role of disaster events on changes in production efficiency. Our results show that earthquakes led to increases in efficiency for both machinery and textiles, although they were substantially greater for textiles due to recovery persisting longer. In contrast, climate-related natural disaster events played no role in production efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), Natural Disasters, Production Efficiency, Earthquakes, Inefficiency Scores |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 O47 |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-006&r=all |
| By: | Gianmarco Daniele; Amedeo Piolatto; Willem Sas |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we argue that regional heterogeneity of underlying fundamentals -such as economic history, geography or natural resources- can lead to extreme voting in federal systems of government. The outcome of higher-level (federal) policies often depends on these fundamentals, meaning some regions will always benefit from the policy whilst others lose out. In our model, voters have an incentive to stack this kind of redistribution in their favour, using the regional ties of politicians as a strategic link. The median voter therefore elects federal representatives that are extremely protective of their own region's interests. We find that the incentive to select such a tough negotiator survives the pressure to belong to the ruling coalition. We test our predictions by looking at the performance of parties at national and European Parliament elections since 1990. We indeed observe that such strategic voting behaviour is U-shaped on the "losing-winning from the policy" dimension. Our online survey provides further evidence. |
| Keywords: | strategic delegation, interregional redistribution, political extremism, federalism, bargaining, coalitions, EU elections, euroscepticism, populism |
| JEL: | H6 H71 H74 H77 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1157&r=all |
| By: | Das,Maitreyi B; Mehta,Soumya Kapoor; Zumbyte,Ieva; Sasmal,Sanjeev; Goyal,Sangeeta |
| Abstract: | In discussing the inordinately low employment of Indian women in urban areas, several studies have argued that culture and attitudes have created a labor market that is inherently discriminatory. The unsaid corollary is that culture is slow and hard to change and so, women will stay out of the labor market until social change occurs. The empirical evidence on the role of culture is slim at best. This paper fills the void in the policy literature, as it assesses the relative role of culture, as signified by attitudes of employers, and firm characteristics in hiring women. The paper is based on a unique survey of 618 firms in three of the largest cities in the state of Madhya Pradesh (India)?Bhopal, Indore, and Gwalior. Using detailed descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis at the firm level, the hiring process, and attitudes toward male and female workers, the paper addresses the issue of culture and firm characteristics, while noting that the two are not necessarily in binary opposition. The results reinforce the conventional wisdom in some ways and are surprising in others. The most salient result is that employer attitudes matter much less for the chance that women will be hired, than do firm and location characteristics. This has significant policy implications, the most important of which is that female employment in urban India is amenable to policy intervention, and that it is not necessary to wait for culture to change. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Gender and Development,Pulp&Paper Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Food&Beverage Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing,Rural Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2019–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8736&r=all |
| By: | Shilling, Fraser M.; Collins, Amy; Longcore, Travis; Vickers, Winston |
| Abstract: | Creating and maintaining sustainable transportation systems depends in part on understanding and mitigating ecological impacts. Wildlife crossing structures (WCS) are often used to mitigate impacts on wildlife populations. WCS and existing structures may provide passage for multiple species, depending on their sensitivity to traffic disturbance and perception of the roadway. In a previous project, the research team found that traffic conditions and traffic noise could reduce WCS effectiveness in facilitating passage of diverse and sensitive species. In the current project, they expanded the geographic scope to 26 sites throughout California, including detailed measurements of vehicle noise and lighting impacts on wildlife use of structures. They investigated individual animal behavior as the animals approached structures as a possible mechanism for reducing species diversity due to traffic disturbance. In order to inform future WCS planning, placement and construction, the team studied traffic noise and light impacts on wildlife in the vicinity of the proposed Liberty Canyon wildlife over-crossing (over US 101), the first and largest of its kind in California. They improved a preliminary statistical model of the effects of traffic on WCS use of existing structures. The authors recommend strategies for transportation agencies to use in developing and modifying WCS to improve wildlife passage. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Life Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Wildlife crossing structures, wildlife-vehicle collision, wildlife connectivity, mitigation, ecologically-sustainable transportation |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt72h3x0nk&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline; Podolsky, Laura |
| Abstract: | Low-income rural residents, especially those who do not own a car, have limited transportation options for accessing jobs, health care, education, healthy food, and other basic services. Rural transit service is often expensive, infrequent, and hard to access because of long travel distances and low development densities. Transit providers face very high operating costs of fixed-route and dial-a-ride transit services because of low farebox recovery rates. Shared-use mobility services such as ridehailing and carsharing largely serve major metropolitan areas. However, rural governments are beginning to consider whether these types of services may be able to augment existing transit services while providing cost-effective transportation access to rural residents. This policy brief summarizes findings from a UC Davis study in which researchers compared the cost-effectiveness of existing inter-city transit service in rural disadvantaged communities in California’s San Joaquin Valley to hypothetical ridesharing and carsharing services. The researchers also reviewed existing shared-use mobility pilots and consulted with experts in shared mobility and local transportation planning to develop concepts for future shared mobility pilot programs in the San Joaquin Valley. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Benefit cost analysis, Demand responsive transportation, Intercity transportation, Low income groups, Paratransit services, Rural transportation, Shared mobility, Transportation disadvantaged persons, Travel costs, Vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1wc452qm&r=all |
| By: | Papagianni, Efthimia; Papageorgiou, Panagiotis |
| Abstract: | In the era of globalization, competition between cities is commonplace/frequent phenomenon, although economic theories believed that only businesses compete with each other. Nowadays, in order to attract visitors, residents and investments, the cities are turning to a search for policies and tools for reconstruction and upgrading of their characteristics. For this reason, cities' competitiveness plays a central role in local government and urban development policies. The present paper aims at studying the strategies between two different cities concerning the touristic development process. The two cities were chosen because of the fact that they are the second-largest cities of Greece and Bulgaria, additionally with rich cultural heritage and cultural diversity. Primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews, which are defined by a set of predefined questions and were based on open-ended questions. Α comparison was made between the two cities taking into account the data collected resulting to specific conclusions about the current situation, while at the same time it is of particular interest to repeat the research in the long run. |
| Keywords: | tourism development, economic development, tourism destination, culture tourism |
| JEL: | L83 O1 |
| Date: | 2018–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98942&r=all |
| By: | Ioannou, Petros; Zhang, Yihang |
| Abstract: | Traffic during peak hours is getting worse over time and the duration of the peak is increasing in most metropolitan areas as more drivers try to use limited roadway capacity. Bottlenecks caused by traffic incidents or road construction limit roadway capacity even further and can cause traffic “shock waves.” When an incident causes a highway lane to close unexpectedly, vehicles are forced to change lanes close to the incident and at low speeds. These forced lane changes interfere with traffic flow in open lanes and decrease the overall flow of the roadway. Heavy-duty trucks can exacerbate congestion because they are larger and slower than passenger vehicles. Advanced technologies may help to improve traffic flow in these situations. Variable speed limits can change based on road, traffic, and weather conditions. Speed limits can be reduced in real time when congestion is imminent to smooth traffic flow and handle more traffic volume at a slower, but not stop-and-go, speed. Lane change control systems provide lane change recommendations well upstream of blocked lanes, spreading lane changes over a greater distance and minimizing bottlenecks that disrupt traffic flow. This policy brief summarizes findings from researchers at the University of Southern California who simulated traffic patterns along a section of Interstate 710 near the Ports of Long Beach/Los Angeles, a congested area that gets substantial truck traffic. They simulated the use of variable speed limit and lane change control systems to evaluate the potential traffic impacts of these systems. This brief is based on research from two NCST projects: Eco-Friendly Intelligent Transportation System Technology for Freight Vehicles , and Reducing Truck Emissions and Improving Truck Fuel Economy via ITS Technologies . |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Feedback control, Fuel consumption, Lane changing, Monte Carlo method, Pollutants, Ramp metering, Traffic flow, Trucks, Variable speed limits, Speed limits, Traffic models, Truck traffic |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt69w5g2h9&r=all |
| By: | Walsh,Brian James; Hallegatte,Stephane |
| Abstract: | Traditional risk assessments use asset losses as the main metric to measure the severity of a disaster. This paper proposes an expanded risk assessment based on a framework that adds socioeconomic resilience and uses wellbeing losses as its main measure of disaster severity. Using a new, agent-based model that represents explicitly the recovery and reconstruction process at the household level, this risk assessment provides new insights into disaster risks in the Philippines. First, there is a close link between natural disasters and poverty. On average, the estimates suggest that almost half a million Filipinos per year face transient consumption poverty due to natural disasters. Nationally, the bottom income quintile suffers only 9 percent of the total asset losses, but 31 percent of the total wellbeing losses. The average annual wellbeing losses due to disasters in the Philippines is estimated at US$3.9 billion per year, more than double the asset losses of US$1.4 billion. Second, the regions identified as priorities for risk-management interventions differ depending on which risk metric is used. Cost-benefit analyses based on asset losses direct risk reduction investments toward the richest regions and areas. A focus on poverty or wellbeing rebalances the analysis and generates a different set of regional priorities. Finally, measuring disaster impacts through poverty and wellbeing impacts allows the quantification of the benefits from interventions like rapid post-disaster support and adaptive social protection. Although these measures do not reduce asset losses, they efficiently reduce their consequences for wellbeing by making the population more resilient. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Natural Disasters,Disaster Management,Hazard Risk Management,Social Risk Management,Disability,Services&Transfers to Poor,Access of Poor to Social Services,Economic Assistance |
| Date: | 2019–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8723&r=all |
| By: | Mo, Lijia |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea20:302319&r=all |
| By: | Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Eric Strobl (Department of Economics, Bern University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the damage impact of the 1959 Ise Bay Typhoon-the most destructive storm in Japanese history-on firm performance in Nagoya City. To this end, we combine firm-level data with a locally derived damage index measured in terms of the duration of storm surge-induced flooding. We find heterogeneous impacts of flood damage across firms and sectors. More specifically, older manufacturing firms tend to survive and, conditional on survival, longer time inundation moderated their employment and sales growth, but also promoted capital growth, suggesting investment in new machinery and facilities. In contrast, employment growth increased in the construction sector to satisfy the construction demand for rebuilding after the supertyphoon. |
| Keywords: | Typhoon, Flood, Firm survival, Firm growth, Nagoya city |
| JEL: | Q54 R10 R12 R14 D22 L25 |
| Date: | 2020–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-005&r=all |
| By: | Lee, Hyun Ji |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea20:302330&r=all |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice (University of Paris-Dauphine, CEPII and CESifo); Giovanni Peri (University of California, Davis and NBER) |
| Abstract: | The process of matching between firms and workers is an important mechanism in determining the distribution of wages. In a labor market characterised by large dispersion of workers' productivity and worker-firm complementarity, high quality firms have strong incentives to screen for the quality of workers. This process will increase the positive quality association of firm-worker matches known as positive assortative matching (PAM). Immigration in a local labor market, by increasing the variance of workers abilities, may drive stronger PAM between firms and workers. Using French matched employer-employee (DADS) data over the period 1995-2005 we document that positive supply-driven changes of immigrant workers in a district increased the strength of PAM. We then show that this association is consistent with causality, is quantitatively significant, and is associated with higher average productivity and firm profits, but also with higher wage dispersion. We also show that the increased degree of positive assortative matching is mainly reached by high-productive firms "losing" lower quality workers and "attracting" higher quality workers. |
| Keywords: | Matching, Workers, Firms, Immigration, Productivity. |
| JEL: | F16 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202002&r=all |
| By: | Seyed Hassan Hosseini; Ahmad Mehrabian; Mohsen Momenitabar; Zhila Dehdari Ebrahimi; Mohammad Arani |
| Abstract: | Perusing three important elements (economic, safety and traffic) is the overall objective of decision evaluation across all transport projects. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of development of city interchanges, and road connections for network users. In order to achieve this goal, a series of smaller goals are required including determining benefits, costs of implementing new highway interchanges, quantifying the effective parameters, quantifying the increase in fuel consumption, quantifying the reduction in travel time and growth in travel speeds. In this study, geometric advancement of Hakim highway, and Yadegar-e-Emam highway was investigated just Macro from cloverleaf intersection with a low capacity to three-level directional intersection and enhanced cloverleaf. For this purpose, the simulation was done by EMME/2 software. The results of the method of net present value (NPV) were evaluated economically, and the benefit and cost of each one was stated precisely in different years (%28 improvement). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of fuel, cost of travel time, cost of accidents and cost of pollutants have the highest impact factor in this assessment respectively. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.04459&r=all |
| By: | Losos,Elizabeth Claire; Pfaff,Alexander; Olander,Lydia Pauline; Mason,Sara; Morgan,Seth |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative, due to its diverse and extensive infrastructure investments, poses a wide range of environmental risks. Some projects have easily identifiable and measurable impacts, such as energy projects'greenhouse gas emissions. Others, such as transportation infrastructure, due to their vast geographic reach, generate more complex and potentially more extensive environmental risks. The proposed Belt and Road Initiative rail and road investments have stimulated concerns because of the history of significant negative environmental impacts from large-scale transportation projects across the globe. This paper studies environmental risks -- direct and indirect -- from Belt and Road Initiative transportation projects and the mitigation strategies and policies to address them. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how to take advantage of the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative to address these concerns in a way not typically available to stand-alone projects. In short, this scale motivates and permits early integrated development and conservation planning. |
| Date: | 2019–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8718&r=all |
| By: | Osborne Jackson; Riley Sullivan |
| Abstract: | Criminal justice reform has been a high-priority policy area in New England and the nation in recent years. States are generally seeking legislation that would help reintegrate ex-offenders into society while still prioritizing the welfare of all members of the public and the achievement of fiscal goals. The research findings presented in this report indicate that raising felony larceny thresholds—that is, increasing the dollar value of stolen property at or above which a larceny offense may be charged in court as a felony rather than a misdemeanor, a policy adopted by three New England states over the last decade—seems to balance these objectives. Policymakers interested in criminal justice reform should consider incorporating felony larceny threshold increases into the suite of policy changes implementing such reform. |
| Keywords: | labor supply; felony conviction; larceny thresholds; crime; theft |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcr:87612&r=all |
| By: | M. Okimoto (University of Shizuoka) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the export promotion of processed foods by a regional economy and regional vitalisation policy. We employ Bertrand models that contain a major home producer and a home producer in a local area. In our model, growth in the profit of one producer does not result in an increase in the profit of the other, despite strategic complements. We show that the profit of the producer in the local area decreases because of the deterioration of a location condition, and its profit increases through the reinforcement of the administrative guidance. Furthermore, when the inefficiency of the location worsens, the local government should optimally decrease the level of administrative guidance. Hence, the local government should strategically eliminate this inefficiency to maintain a sufficient effect of administrative guidance. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.04307&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Gurara; Kangni R Kpodar; Andrea F Presbitero; Dawit Tessema |
| Abstract: | While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms. |
| Date: | 2020–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:20/48&r=all |
| By: | Jason Bram; James A. Orr |
| Abstract: | After bottoming out in late 2009, New York City?s economy has been on the road to recovery. In this post, we call attention to an unprecedented feature of the current economic recovery: overall employment in the city began to rebound from the recession well before Wall Street started adding jobs. We also consider some questions that this development naturally raises: What took Wall Street employment so long to recover? What?s been driving job generation on Main Street? What does the recent pickup in Wall Street employment suggest about the outlook for the city?s economy? |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector; Wall Street; Employment; New York (City); Securities |
| JEL: | E2 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:86744&r=all |
| By: | Mundra, Kusum (Rutgers University); Rios-Avila, Fernando (Levy Economics Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the education and occupation mismatch for Hispanics in the US using a novel objective continuous mismatch index and explore the role of immigrants' social networks on this mismatch. We explore whether having a larger social network helps Hispanics in finding jobs that better match with their skill and education levels or whether living in areas with larger concentration of Hispanics leads to more competition for the same jobs in the labor market. Given that the legal status of immigrants influence how the social networks are leveraged and their impact on labor market outcomes, we focus on the citizenship status for Hispanics. The quality of match between Hispanic's college degree major and occupation is measured using one of the continuous indices proposed in Rios-Avila and Saavedra-Caballero (2019) and calculated using pooled data for all college graduates in the US from 2010 to 2017. The Hispanic networks measures are constructed as the share of Hispanic population who are 25 years or older with respect to the total population of the same age and the second measure only includes Hispanics with at least a bachelor's degree using the weighted pooled data from 2010 to 2015. We find that networks have a positive impact on the job-match quality, but mostly for Hispanic citizens and this effect is stronger when the networks constitutes of at least a college degree. This shows that Hispanic citizens living in higher concentration of Hispanic college graduates are better able to leverage their networks or their networks are better able to match them with jobs closer to their field of specialization and skill set. |
| Keywords: | education-occupation mismatch, horizontal mismatch, social networks, hispanics, citizenship |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12975&r=all |
| By: | Alexei V. Kraikovski (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Margarita M. Dadykina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mikhail A. Vsemirnov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The different levels of the tourism service system are not just another intermediary between the heritage and the visitor, but an important aspect which influences the construction of heritage and past discourses. Noel Salazar suggested considering natural and cultural-historical heritage sites as the basis for constructing "imaginary realities". We explored the formation of a visual tourist space through the example of a small old Russian town, Totma. In the tourist space of Totma we identified several alternating or complementary tourist narratives, based on an appeal to different themes from the past, from the representation of the city as a salting center and monastery center to the construction of the image of Totma as a "city of sailors". The study showed how, and under what influence, the different local tourist narratives about Totma are now intertwined in modern representations of the city. |
| Keywords: | Historical heritage tourism, usable past, "touristic imaginaries", touristic narratives |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:187/hum/2020&r=all |
| By: | Roy, Sandeepan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Maji, Avijit (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Integrated interoperable rail systems facilitate high-speed rail (HSR) train movement on conventional intercity lines, and vice versa. Hence, for such rail systems, it is preferred that HSR stations are located at existing intercity rail stations. However, all existing intercity stations may not satisfy the ridership potential and inter-station spacing required for HSR operation. Providing more stations increases access to intermediate locations, boosting ridership, but also increases overall travel time. On the contrary, fewer stations and stops reduce overall ridership of the HSR. We propose a geographic information system-based interoperable HSR station location identification approach along existing intercity rail stations to identify suitable integrated interoperable HSR and intercity station locations. Avoiding environmentally sensitive land (such as wetlands, forests, etc.), and other requirements such as threshold inter-station distance and travel time between intended station locations and threshold population of the intended station region, are included as environmental, and corridor specific constraints, respectively. A heuristic approach is used to evaluate and obtain the candidate set of station locations that maximizes ridership and minimizes travel time, such that an integrated interoperable HSR and intercity corridor can be developed. The Mumbai–Ahmedabad conventional intercity corridor is used as a case study to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model by identifying possible HSR station locations. |
| Keywords: | station location; location analysis; ridership; travel time; heuristic; intercity rail; corridor; interoperability; environment |
| JEL: | L92 R41 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0956&r=all |
| By: | Gulyani,Sumila; Ryan Rizvi,Andrea C.; Talukdar,Debabrata |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a framework that examines three levels of access to infrastructure -- nominal, effective, and quality-adjusted access. Most conventional indicators measure nominal access --whether a household has physical access to a service in or near the house. By contrast, effective access incorporates functionality and use of service, and quality-adjusted access raises the bar by incorporating quality metrics. The paper illustrates the analytical utility of this conceptual framework by deploying data from a survey of 14,200 households in 15 Kenyan cities in 2012-13. First, the analysis finds that these cities fall far short of delivering universal access to basic infrastructure. Second, for most services there a large gap -- 3 to 41 percentage points?between nominal and effective access. When the bar is raised to include quality of service, the drop-off in the proportion of those with access is even more dramatic. These findings suggest that conventional nominal measures overreport the level of service in urban communities, and that current approaches to infrastructure delivery might be enhancing availability of a service without ensuring that the service is usable -- that is, functional, reliable and affordable. Third, there is an infrastructure access gap between nonpoor and poor households, as well as formal and informal settlements. Fourth, hedonic regression analysis reveals that four services -- electricity, water, toilets, and garbage collection?are associated with higher rents. The analysis has broader implications for understanding and measuring service access. It raises important questions as global discussions turn to indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | Hydrology,Energy Policies&Economics,Inequality,Water and Human Health,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Sanitary Environmental Engineering,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Engineering,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Environmental Engineering,Sanitation and Sewerage,Urban Transport,Transport in Urban Areas |
| Date: | 2019–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8750&r=all |
| By: | Jason Bram; Rachel Keller (Research and Statistics Group) |
| Abstract: | In late October last year, Superstorm Sandy devastated and disrupted much of the tri-state region, including a large swath of Long Island. For most of Suffolk County and inland parts of Nassau County, the disruptions were widespread but relatively short lived?they mostly involved power, transportation, and communications outages. However, the southern coast of Nassau County was particularly hard hit, and the recovery in cities like Long Beach has taken considerably longer. Overall, though, Long Island?s economic rebound appears to be progressing well. In this post, we give a short overview of the Island?s economy and track its performance before and after Sandy. |
| Keywords: | Sandy; Nassau; Long Island; Suffolk |
| JEL: | R1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:86901&r=all |
| By: | Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes; Spencer,Phoebe Girouard; Azari,Sardar; Chamorro,Andres; Wang,Dieter; Dogo,Harun |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a Spatial Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (SVARMA) model in which multiple cross-sectional time series are modeled as multivariate, possibly fat-tailed, spatial autoregressive ARMA processes. The estimation requires specifying the cross-sectional spillover channels through spatial weights matrices. the paper explores a kernel method to estimate the network topology based on similarities in the data. It discusses the model and estimation, focusing on a penalized Maximum Likelihood criterion. The empirical performance of the estimator is explored in a simulation study. The model is used to study a spatial time series of pollution and household expenditure data in Indonesia. The analysis finds that the new model improves in terms of implied density, and better neutralizes residual correlations than the VARMA, using fewer parameters. The results suggest that growth in household expenditures precedes pollution reduction, particularly after the expenditures of poorer households increase; that increasing pollution is followed by reduced growth in expenditures, particularly reducing the growth of poorer households; and that there are significant spillovers from bottom-up growth in expenditures. The paper does not find evidence for top-down growth spillovers. Feedback between the identified mechanisms may contribute to pollution-poverty traps and the results imply that pollution damages are economically significant. |
| Keywords: | Global Environment,Inequality,Brown Issues and Health,Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Health Service Management and Delivery |
| Date: | 2019–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8757&r=all |
| By: | Nicole Gorton; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | The state of the New York City subway system has worsened considerably over the past few years. As a consequence of rising ridership and decaying infrastructure, the network is plagued by delays and frequently fails to deliver New Yorkers to their destinations on time. While these delays are a headache for anyone who depends on the subway to get around, they do not affect all riders in the same way. In this post, we explain why subway delays disproportionately affect low-income New Yorkers. We show that wealthier commuters who rely on the subway are less likely to experience extensive issues on their commutes. |
| Keywords: | income inequality; transportation; New York City |
| JEL: | D6 R4 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87262&r=all |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hendriyetty, Nella (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lakhia, Saloni (Asian Development Bank Institute); Alwarritzi, Widya (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The growing trend of urban city development requires various infrastructure investments, including water supply, electricity, sanitation, transportation, and other supporting facilities. In facing this challenge, many Asian countries experience significant constraints, particularly on the issues of land acquisition and insufficient financial supply, which potentially create a time delay in infrastructure investment and huge budget deficits. If these infrastructure investments were financed by overseas investors, future exchange rate risks would have to be carried by infrastructure companies. We examine further ways to attract more investment in infrastructure by applying spillover tax revenues. We also present case studies of some innovative financing aspects of Japan and other countries. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure financing; spill-over effects; tax revenue; land acquisition; smart city; connectivity |
| JEL: | C31 H21 O18 R51 |
| Date: | 2019–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0979&r=all |
| By: | Peri, Giovanni (University of California, Davis); Rutledge, Zachariah (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the United States spanning the period between 1970 and 2017, we analyze the economic assimilation of subsequent arrival cohorts of Mexican and Central American immigrants, the more economically disadvantaged group of immigrants. We compare their wage and employment probability to that of similarly aged and educated natives across various cohorts of entry. We find that all cohorts started with a disadvantage of 40-45 percent relative to the average US native, and eliminated about half of it in the 20 years after entry. They also started with no employment probability disadvantage at arrival and they overtook natives in employment rates so that they were 5-10 percent more likely to be employed 20 years after arrival. We also find that recent cohorts, arriving after 1995, did better than earlier cohorts both in initial gap and convergence. We show that Mexicans and Central Americans working in the construction sector and in urban areas did better in terms of gap and convergence than others. Finally, also for other immigrant groups, such as Chinese and Indians, recent cohorts did better than previous ones. |
| Keywords: | Mexicans and Central Americans, economic assimilation, cohort analysis |
| JEL: | J3 J6 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12976&r=all |
| By: | Hiraishi, Kazuaki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | High-speed rail (HSR) is not a “sufficient condition” but a “necessary condition” for regional development. Understanding how to use HSR for regional development is essential. Japan’s Shinkansen (bullet train) has a 50-year history, and Japan has long attempted to utilize Shinkansen for regional development. We introduce Shinkansen-related regional development cases, including a national economic plan, tourism promotion, and development around Shinkansen stations. Several HSR development plans are currently in progress around the world, especially in Asian countries, and the Japanese experience is informative and useful for these countries. We present a case study concerning advising Kuala Lumpur–Singapore’s HSR based on Japanese experiences, in particular the effectiveness of the “back-casting approach” for localization. |
| Keywords: | high-speed rail; regional development; Japan shinkansen |
| JEL: | L92 N95 O53 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0958&r=all |
| By: | Jonah Deutsch; Matthew Johnson; Brian Gill |
| Abstract: | This report describes the data and methods used to measure Louisiana public high schools’ promotion power, which is a school’s effect on the long-term success of its students as indicated by high school graduation, college or career readiness, college enrollment and persistence, and earnings. |
| Keywords: | secondary education, high schools, Louisiana, college enrollment, college persistence, earnings |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:2c041387caf14e9eac49cd539408824f&r=all |
| By: | Osborne Jackson |
| Abstract: | This paper uses increases in felony larceny thresholds as a negative shock to felony conviction probability to examine the impact of punishment severity on criminal behavior. In the theft value distribution between old and new larceny thresholds (“response region”), higher thresholds cause a 2 percent increase in the average larceny value within 120 days of enactment. However, within five years of enactment, response region average larceny values and rates decline 2 percent and 13 percent, respectively, in low-wage areas. Thus, under certain market conditions, smaller expected penalties may reduce incentives and deter crime in the long run. |
| Keywords: | felony conviction; larceny thresholds; crime; theft; labor supply |
| JEL: | K14 K42 J22 |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:87611&r=all |
| By: | Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Ilan Tojerow |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/301465&r=all |