nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒03‒16
eighty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. How Do School District Boundary Changes and New School Proposals Affect Housing Prices By Xiaozhou Ding; Christopher Bollinger; Michael Clark; William H. Hoyt
  2. Housing Search Frictions: Evidence from Detailed Search Data and a Field Experiment By Peter Leopold S. Bergman; Eric W. Chan; Adam Kapor
  3. Does e-commerce reduce traffic congestion? Evidence from Alibaba single day shopping event By Peng, Cong
  4. Land Price Fluctuations, Commercial-Residential Segregation, and Gentrification By Xu, Hangtian
  5. Residential mobility and unemployment in the UK By Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
  6. The Effects of Student Composition on Teacher Turnover: Evidence from an Admission Reform By Karbownik, Krzysztof
  7. Should I stay of should I go? Neighbors' effects on university enrollment By Barrios-Fernandez, Andres
  8. The value of a peer By Ingo E. Isphording; Ulf Zölitz
  9. The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia? By Bird,Julia Helen; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Venables,Anthony J.
  10. Who Wins, Who Loses ? Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative By Lall,Somik V.; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria
  11. Using Road Freight Movements Survey data to estimate road freight transport quotients and regional road freight flows in Australia By Naude, Cliff
  12. Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls By Mark Hoekstra; CarlyWill Sloan
  13. How Will the New Tax Law Affectt Homeowners in High Tax States? It Depends By Nicole Gorton; Richard Peach; Gizem Koşar
  14. Is the Recent Tax Reform Playing a Role in the Decline of Home Sales? By Casey McQuillan; Richard Peach
  15. Measuring and explaining management in schools: new approaches using public data By Leaver, Clare; Lemos, Renata; Scur, Daniela
  16. Do Immigrants Make Us Safer? Crime, Immigration, and the Labor Market By Thomas Bassetti; Luca Corazzini; Darwin Cortes; Luca Nunziata
  17. Why some places are left-behind: urban adjustment to trade and policy shocks By Anthony Venables
  18. Work Environment and Competition in Swedish Schools, 1999-2011 By Sebhatu, Abiel; Wennberg, Karl; Lakomaa, Erik; Brandén, Maria
  19. Credit Score Doctors By Luojia Hu; Xing Huang; Ina Simonovska
  20. An Investigation of the Synchronization in Global House Prices By Martin Hoesli
  21. Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City By Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Veronica
  22. Retail shocks and city structure By Sanchez-Vidal, Maria
  23. Did School Districts Offset State Education Funding Cuts? By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Ravi Bhalla
  24. Creating a Regional Program for Preserving Industrial Land: Perspectives from San Francisco Bay Area Cities By Roach, Emily; Chapple, Karen PhD
  25. The Signaling, Screening, and Human Capital Effects of National Board Certification: Evidence from Chicago and Kentucky High Schools By Lisa Barrow; Thomas Geraghty; Christine Mokher; Lauren Sartain
  26. Did Import Competition Boost Household Debt Demand? By Julien Sauvagnat; Erik Loualiche; Jean-Noël Barrot; Matthew Plosser
  27. Are Charter Schools Draining Private School Enrollment? By Elizabeth Setren; Joydeep Roy; Rajashri Chakrabarti
  28. Network Competition and Team Chemistry in the NBA By William C. Horrace; Hyunseok Jung; Shane Sanders
  29. Proxying Economic Activity with Daytime Satellite Imagery: Filling Data Gaps Across Time and Space By Patrick Lehnert; Michael Niederberger; Uschi Backes-Gellner
  30. Unintended Consequences in School Accountability Policies By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Noah Schwartz
  31. Peer Effects in Networks: A Survey By Bramoullé, Yann; Djebbari, Habiba; Fortin, Bernard
  32. Does light touch cluster policy work? Evaluating the tech city programme By Nathan, Max
  33. Do Corrupt Local Governments Inhibit Entrepreneurship? A Contextual Analysis of Start-Ups in Swedish Municipalities By Wittberg, Emanuel; Erlingsson, Gissur
  34. First Impressions Can Be Misleading: Revisions to House Price Changes By Joseph Tracy; Joshua Abel; Richard Peach
  35. High-growth Firm Shares in Austrian Regions: The Role of Economic Structures By Klaus S. Friesenbichler; Werner Hölzl
  36. The Financialization of Rental Housing in Tokyo By Natacha Aveline-Dubach
  37. Catching Up or Falling Behind? New Jersey Schools in the Aftermath of the Great Recession By Max Livingston; Rajashri Chakrabarti
  38. Investigating primary school quality using teachers' self-efficacy and satisfaction By Athina Skapinaki; Maria Salamoura
  39. Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments By Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke B.; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.
  40. Industry connection in Europe and North America By Bajgar, Matej; Berlingieri, Giuseppe; Calligaris, Sara; Criscuolo, Chiara; Timmis, Jonathan
  41. Air Pollution and Internal Migration: Evidence from Iranian Household Survey By Hassan F. Gholipour; Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mostafa Javadian
  42. Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market By Christopher Palmer; Haoyang Liu
  43. Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations By Bahar, Dany; Choudhury, Prithwiraj; Rapoport, Hillel
  44. Participatory-collaborative administration of a school unit: The role of the Teachers’ Council By Koutsiai, Georgia; Ioannidou, Irene
  45. A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790 By Fabian Eckert; Andrés Gvirtz; Jack Liang; Michael Peters
  46. Assessing the Value of Market Access from Belt and Road Projects By Reed,Tristan; Trubetskoy,Alexandr
  47. Dirty density: air quality and the density of American cities By Carozzi, Felipe; Roth, Sefi
  48. Can Scholarships Increase High School Graduation Rates ? Evidence from A Randomized Control Trial in Mexico By De Hoyos Navarro,Rafael E.; Attanasio,Orazio Pietro; Meghir,Costas
  49. Minimum Wages in Monopsonistic Labor Markets By Munguia Corella, Luis Felipe
  50. Giving up Job Search Because I Don't Have a Car: Labor Market Participation and Employment Status Among Single Mothers With and Without Cars By Miwa Matsuo; Hiroyuki Iseki
  51. Refugee Migration and the Politics of Redistribution: Do Supply and Demand Meet? By Konstantinos Matakos; Riikka Savolainen; Janne Tukiainen
  52. The Health Toll of Import Competition By Adda, Jérôme; Fawaz, Yarine
  53. Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Nitsch, Volker; Wendland, Nicolai
  54. Marketing issues of sustainable tourism development in Russian regions By Marina Sheresheva; Anna Polukhina; Matvey Oborin
  55. The Sustainability of First-Time Homeownership By Donghoon Lee; Joseph Tracy
  56. Tough Decisions, Depleted Revenues: Analysis of New Jersey Education Finances during the Great Recession By Sarah Sutherland; Rajashri Chakrabarti
  57. Determinants of private school participation: all about the money? By Jake Anders; Francis Green; Morag Henderson; Golo Henseke
  58. The causal impact of socio-emotional skills training on educational success By Giuseppe Sorrenti; Ulf Zölitz; Denis Ribeaud; Manuel Eisner
  59. Correspondence between mathematics and mathematical literacy scores: an analysis from 2010 to 2018 By Grace Bridgman
  60. Can Community Information Campaigns Improve Girls’ Education? By Christopher Cotton; Jordan Nanowski; Ardyn Nordstrom; Eric Richert
  61. U.S. Virgin Islands' Economy Hit Hard by Irma and Maria By Jason Bram; Lauren Thomas
  62. Flooded through the back door: The role of bank capital in local shock spillovers By Oliver Rehbein; Steven Ongena
  63. Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis By Simone Bertoli; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport; Ilse Ruyssen
  64. Education’s Role in Earnings, Employment, and Economic Mobility By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Michelle Jiang
  65. Between Firm Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Dominant Role of Industry Effects By Haltiwanger, John C.; Spletzer, James R.
  66. The Effect of Immigration on Business Dynamics and Employment By Pia M. Orrenius; Madeline Zavodny; Alexander T. Abraham
  67. Does participation in knowledge networks facilitate international market access? The case of offshore wind By Maria Tsouri; Jens Hanson; Håkon Endresen Normann
  68. Identifying Urban Areas by Combining Human Judgment and Machine Learning : An Application to India By Galdo,Virgilio; Li,Yue-000316086; Rama,Martin G.
  69. The Determinants of Subnational Public Spending Allocation for Disaster Risk Reduction in Bangladesh By Azreen Karim; Ilan Noy
  70. Common Transport Infrastructure : A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative By De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Mulabdic,Alen; Ruta,Michele
  71. The Great Recession and Recovery in the Tri-State Region By Jason Bram; James A. Orr
  72. Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program By Santiago Tobón Zapata
  73. How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation? By Antoine Martin; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
  74. Grocery Taxes and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Decade-Long U.S. State and County Tax Changes By Wang, Lingxiao; Zheng, Yuqing; Dong, Diansheng; Stewart, Hayden; Kaiser, Harry Mason
  75. Does School Safety and Classroom Disciplinary Climate Hinder Learning ? Evidence from the MENA Region By Cahu,Paul Marie Michel; Quota,Manal Bakur N
  76. A Window to the World: The long-term effect of Television on Hate Crime By Endrich, Marek
  77. Catedr‡ticos in the making of the Spanish Secondary Education System, 1861-1885 By Pau Insa-S‡nchez
  78. Ethnic Attrition, Assimilation, and the Measured Health Outcomes of Mexican Americans By Antman, Francisca M.; Duncan, Brian; Trejo, Stephen
  79. Just Released: Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy By Jason Bram; James A. Orr
  80. How Does Immigration Fit into the Future of the U.S. Labor Market? By Pia M. Orrenius; Madeline Zavodny; Stephanie Gullo
  81. Anti-Bullying Laws and Suicidal Behaviors among Teenagers By Daniel I. Rees; Joseph J. Sabia; Gokhan Kumpas
  82. Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence By Amelie F. Constant

  1. By: Xiaozhou Ding; Christopher Bollinger; Michael Clark; William H. Hoyt
    Abstract: In the past fifty years, a voluminous literature estimating the value of schools through capitalization in home prices has emerged. Prior research has identified capitalized value using various approaches including discontinuities caused by boundaries. We use changes in school boundaries and the proposal of a new school. Our findings from redistricting in the Fayette county school district (KY) show that prices for homes redistricted from a lower-performing (based on test scores) school into the proposed school catchment area increase by six percent. For houses in higher-performing school catchment areas redistricted to the proposed new school district, there is a smaller increase in value. Houses redistricted from higher-performing schools to lower-performing schools decrease in value by three to five percent. However, many of the redistricted properties see little or no significant change, suggesting that only extreme changes in school quality are capitalized. We estimate that homes in the redistricted areas increased by $108 million relative to homes that were not redistricted.
    Keywords: property values, hedonics, school quality, school district, difference-in-differences
    JEL: D10 I20 R30
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Peter Leopold S. Bergman; Eric W. Chan; Adam Kapor
    Abstract: This paper shows that imperfect information about school quality causes low-income families to live in neighborhoods with lower-performing, more segregated schools. We randomized the addition of school quality information onto a nationwide website of housing listings for families with housing vouchers. We find that this information causes families to choose neighborhoods with schools that have 1.5 percentage point higher proficiency rate on state exams. We use data from the experiment to estimate a dynamic model of families’ search for housing on and off the website, as well as their location decisions. The model incorporates imperfect information about school quality and characterizes the bias that would arise from estimating neighborhood preferences ignoring this information problem. Having data from both the treatment and control groups allows us to estimate families’ prior beliefs about school quality and each group’s apparent valuation of school quality. Families tend to underestimate school quality conditional on neighborhood characteristics. If we had ignored imperfect information, we would have estimated that the control group valued school quality relative to their commute downtown by less than half that of the treatment group.
    Keywords: housing, school choice, residential choice
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Peng, Cong
    Abstract: Traditional retail involves traffic both from warehouses to stores and from consumers to stores. Ecommerce cuts intermediate traffic by delivering goods directly from the warehouses to the consumers. Although plenty of evidence has shown that vans that are servicing e-commerce are a growing contributor to traffic and congestion, consumers are also making fewer shopping trips using vehicles. This poses the question of whether e-commerce reduces traffic congestion. The paper exploits the exogenous shock of an influential online shopping retail discount event in China (similar to Cyber Monday), to investigate how the rapid growth of e-commerce affects urban traffic congestion. Portraying e-commerce as trade across cities, I specified a CES demand system with heterogeneous consumers to model consumption, vehicle demand and traffic congestion. I tracked hourly traffic congestion data in 94 Chinese cities in one week before and two weeks after the event. In the week after the event, intra-city traffic congestion dropped by 1.7% during peaks and 1% during non-peak hours. Using Baidu Index (similar to Google Trends) as a proxy for online shopping, I found online shopping increasing by about 1.6 times during the event. Based on the model, I find evidence for a 10% increase in online shopping causing a 1.4% reduction in traffic congestion, with the effect most salient from 9am to 11am and from 7pm to midnight. A welfare analysis conducted for Beijing suggests that the congestion relief effect has a monetary value of around 239 million dollars a year. The finding suggests that online shopping is more traffic-efficient than offline shopping, along with sizable knock-on welfare gains.
    Keywords: e-commerce; traffic congestion; heterogeneous consumers; shopping vehicle demand; air pollution
    JEL: R40 O30
    Date: 2019–08
  4. By: Xu, Hangtian
    Abstract: By examining the impact of a real estate bubble on residential distribution in Tokyo and Osaka, we show that land price fluctuations influence the residential location choice within a metropolitan area. During a period of rising land prices, land developers favor commercial development over residential use in the central city, thereby increasing the daytime population while decreasing the residential population there. Thus, commercial-residential segregation is intensified. In a downturn period, however, with the shrinking demand for commercial space, homes are favored by land developers. Hence, gentrification occurs as an unintended consequence of this endogenous conversion of the land-use pattern.
    Keywords: gentrification; real estate bubble; land-use pattern; housing policy
    JEL: R23 R31
    Date: 2020–02–27
  5. By: Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: The UK has suffered from persistent spatial differences in unemployment rates for many decades. A low responsiveness of internal migration to unemployment is often argued to be an important cause of this problem. This paper uses UK census data to investigate how unemployment affects residential mobility using very small areas as potential destinations and origins and four decades of data. It finds that both inand out-migration are affected by unemployment, although the effect on in-migration appears to be stronger - but also that there is a very high ‘cost of distance’ so most moves are very local. Using individual longitudinal data we show that the young and the better educated have a lower cost of distance but that sensitivity to unemployment shows much less variability across groups.
    Keywords: residential mobility; regional inequality; unemployment
    JEL: Z10 J01 R10 J21
    Date: 2019–07
  6. By: Karbownik, Krzysztof (Emory University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of student ability on teacher turnover using data from Stockholm high schools and an admission reform that led to the exogenous reshuffling of pupils. The results indicate that a 10-percentile-point increase in student credentials decreases the probability of a job separation by up to 10 percentage points. These effects vary somewhat across different groups of teachers and are found mainly for mobility between schools rather than out of the profession. Teachers react most strongly to direct measures of student ability, grades from compulsory school, rather than to other correlated characteristics such as immigrant origin or parental income.
    Keywords: teacher mobility, student ability, school choice
    JEL: I2 J2 J63
    Date: 2020–01
  7. By: Barrios-Fernandez, Andres
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the decision to attend university depends on university enrollment of close neighbors. I create a unique dataset combining detailed geographic information and educational records from different public agencies in Chile, and exploit the quasi-random variation generated by the rules that determine eligibility for student loans. I find that close neighbors have a large and significant impact on university enrollment of younger applicants. Potential applicants are around 11 percentage points more likely to attend university if a close neighbor enrolled the year before. This effect is particularly strong in areas with low exposure to university and among individuals who are more likely to interact; the effect decreases both with geographic and social distance and is weaker for individuals who have spent less time in the neighborhood. I also show that the increase in university attendance translates into retention and university completion. These effects are mediated by an increase in applications rather than by an improvement on applicants' academic performance. This set of results suggests that policies that expand access to university generate positive spillovers on close peers of the direct beneficiaries.
    Keywords: neighbors' effects; university access; spatial spillovers
    JEL: I21 R23
    Date: 2019–10
  8. By: Ingo E. Isphording; Ulf Zölitz
    Abstract: This paper introduces peer value-added, a new approach to quantify the total contribution of an individual peer to student performance. Peer value-added captures social spillovers irrespective of whether they are generated by observable or unobservable peer characteristics. Using data with repeated random assignment to university sections, we find that students significantly differ in their peer value-added. Peer value-added is a good out-of-sample predictor of performance spillovers in newly assigned student-peer pairs. Yet, students’ own past performance and other observable characteristics are poor predictors of peer value-added. Peer value-added increases after exposure to better peers, and valuable peers are substitutes for low-quality teachers.
    Keywords: Peer effects, peer value-added, peer capital, spillovers
    JEL: I21 I24 J24
    Date: 2020–03
  9. By: Bird,Julia Helen; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Venables,Anthony J.
    Abstract: This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
    Date: 2019–04–08
  10. By: Lall,Somik V.; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria
    Abstract: This paper examines how cities and regions within countries are likely to adjust to trade openness and improved connectivity driven by large transport investments from China's Belt and Road Initiative. The paper presents a quantitative economic geography model alongside spatially detailed information on the location of people, economic activity, and transport costs to international gateways in Central Asia to identify which places are likely to gain and which places are likely to lose. The findings are that urban hubs near border crossings will disproportionately gain while farther out regions with little comparative advantage will be relative losers. Complementary investments in domestic transport networks and trade facilitation are complementary policies and can help in spatially spreading the benefits. However, barriers to domestic labor mobility exacerbate spatial inequalities whilst dampening overall welfare.
    Date: 2019–04–08
  11. By: Naude, Cliff
    Abstract: Australia comprises states of varying climates, natural resource endowments, geographic area and population size. This has resulted in a diversity of regional or state economies, regional road freight flows and road networks to serve these needs. In this paper, the concept of location quotients is first examined in terms of its theoretical basis. It is then applied to Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014 Australian Road Freight Movements survey data to calculate “road freight transport” quotients across states in Australia in terms of tonnes and tonne-km, by state of origin-destination and for different commodity types. Origin and destination flows are then compared to determine the extent to which the different states are “outward-orientated” in terms of direction of flows and in what types of goods. Finally, the paper also explores implications of the study for policy analysis as well as future uses of the data, taking account of issues regarding the reliability of the survey data.
    Keywords: Road freight, location quotients, interregional freight flows
    JEL: L9 L92 R1 R11 R12 R4 R40 R42 R5 R58
    Date: 2018–12–05
  12. By: Mark Hoekstra; CarlyWill Sloan
    Abstract: While there is much concern about the role of race in police use of force, identifying causal effects is difficult. This is in part because of selection, and in part because researchers often observe only interactions that end in use of force, necessitating nontrivial benchmarking assumptions. This paper addresses these problems by using data on officers dispatched to over 2 million 911 calls in two cities, neither of which allows for discretion in the dispatch process. Using a location-by-time fixed effects approach that isolates the random variation in officer race, we show white officers use force 60 percent more than black officers, and use gun force twice as often. To examine how civilian race affects use of force, we compare how white officers increase use of force as they are dispatched to more minority neighborhoods, compared to minority officers. Perhaps most strikingly, we show that while white and black officers use gun force at similar rates in white and racially mixed neighborhoods, white officers are five times as likely to use gun force in predominantly black neighborhoods. Similarly, white officers increase use of any force much more than minority officers when dispatched to more minority neighborhoods. Consequently, difference-in-differences estimates from individual officer fixed effect models indicate black (Hispanic) civilians are 30 - 60 (75 - 120) percent more likely to experience any use of force, and five times as likely to experience gun use of force, compared to if white officers scaled up force similarly to minority officers. These findings highlight race as an important determinant of police use of force, including and especially lethal force.
    JEL: J15 K42
    Date: 2020–02
  13. By: Nicole Gorton; Richard Peach; Gizem Koşar
    Abstract: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) introduces significant changes to the federal income tax code for individuals and businesses. Several provisions of the new tax law are particularly significant for the owner?occupied housing market. In this blog post, we compare the federal tax liability and the marginal after-tax cost of mortgage interest and property taxes under the old and new tax codes for a wide range of hypothetical recent home buyers in a high tax state. We find that impacts vary substantially along the income/home price distribution.
    Keywords: tax reform; after-tax cost of homeownership
    JEL: R3 D1
  14. By: Casey McQuillan (Research and Statistics Group); Richard Peach
    Abstract: From the fourth quarter of 2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the average contract interest rate on new thirty-year fixed rate mortgages rose by roughly 70 basis points�from 3.9 percent to 4.6 percent. During this same period, there was a broad-based slowing in housing market activity with sales of new single-family homes declining by 7.6 percent while sales of existing single-family homes fell by 4.6 percent. Interestingly though, these declines in home sales were larger than in the two previous episodes when mortgage interest rates rose by a comparable amount. This post considers whether provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) might have also contributed to the recent decline in housing market activity.
    Keywords: Housing; Tax Reform
    JEL: R3
  15. By: Leaver, Clare; Lemos, Renata; Scur, Daniela
    Abstract: Why do some students learn more in some schools than others? One consideration receiving growing attention is school management. To study this, researchers need to be able to measure school management accurately and cheaply at scale, and also explain any observed relationship between school management and student learning. This paper introduces a new approach to measurement using existing public data, and applies it to build a management index covering 15,000 schools across 65 countries, and another index covering nearly all public schools in Brazil. Both indices show a strong, positive relationship between school management and student learning. The paper then develops a simple model that formalizes the intuition that strong management practices might be driving learning gains via incentive and selection effects among teachers, students and parents. The paper shows that the predictions of this model hold in public data for Latin America, and draws out implications for policy.
    Keywords: management; teacher selection; teacher incentives; cross-country
    JEL: M50 I20 J30
    Date: 2019–10
  16. By: Thomas Bassetti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova and CICSE); Luca Corazzini (Department of Economic Sciences, University of Venice); Darwin Cortes (Facultad de Economia, Universidad del Rosario); Luca Nunziata (DSEA, University of Padova and IZA)
    Abstract: We present a two-country labor matching model to account for the existing, inconclusive empirical evidence on the relationship between immigration and crime. According to our model, inflows of relatively un- skilled immigrants negatively affect the labor market equilibrium and, therefore, sharpen criminal activities. On the other hand, inflows of relatively skilled immigrants boost economic activity and reduce the crime rate. Given this preliminary result, we endogenize the migration decision, showing that the host country’ s labor-market characteristics are crucial in determining the impact of migrants on crime rate. Countries characterized by low unemployment rates attract both skilled and unskilled immigrants, making the direction of the relationship between immigration and crime unclear. Countries with high unemployment rates attract only unskilled workers, thus favoring the emergence of a positive relationship between immigration and crime. We test the theoretical predictions of our model on a panel of 97 regions located in 12 European host countries built by combining the European Social Survey and the Eurostat Labor Force Survey. We identify a threshold level of unemployment rate above which the crime rate positively responds to immigration.
    Keywords: Immigration, Crime, Labor Market, Frictional Unemployment
    JEL: F22 J61 J64 K42
    Date: 2020–02
  17. By: Anthony Venables
    Abstract: Economic adjustment to trade and policy shocks is hampered by the fact that some sectors tend to cluster, so are hard to initiate in new places. This can give rise to persistent spatial disparities between cities within a country. The paper sets out a two-sector model in which cities divide into those producing tradable goods or services subject to agglomeration economies, and those only producing non-tradables for the national market. If import competition destroys some established tradable sectors, then affected cities fail to attract new tradable activities and switch to just produce non-tradables. Full employment is maintained (we assume perfect markets and price flexibility) but disparities between the two types of cities are increased. All non-tradable cities experience real income loss, while remaining tradable cities boom. The main beneficiaries are land-owners in remaining tradable cities, but there may be aggregate loss as the country ends up with too many cities producing non-tradables, and too few with internationally competitive activities. Fiscal policy has opposite effects in the two types of cities, with fiscal contraction causing decline in cities producing non-tradables, increasing activity in cities producing tradable goods, widening spatial disparities, and in the process increasing the share of rent in the economy.
    Keywords: Urban economics, divergence, rebalancing, lagging regions, de-industrialisation, fiscal policy
    JEL: F12 F60 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–03–05
  18. By: Sebhatu, Abiel (Linköping University); Wennberg, Karl (The Ratio Institute); Lakomaa, Erik (Stockholm School of Economics); Brandén, Maria (Linköping University)
    Abstract: Research on schools’ work environment highlights socioeconomic conditions (SES) as primary drivers of work environment, but evidence to date is primarily limited to cross-sectional samples. Research on school competition has revealed important effects on educational outcomes, but effects on work environment are largely unknown. We bridge these literatures by studying the work environment in all Swedish junior high schools and high schools using detailed data on complaints and incidences of disorder, including violence. Comparing educational levels to gauge differences in degree of choice made possible by competition, we overall find more adverse work environment in junior high schools facing stronger school competition and with many low-SES students in either the school or the region. Conversely, we find better work environment in high schools facing stronger school competition, and in high schools with a large share of students with foreign background. To assess causal effects of competition on work environment we compare regions that introduced competition versus those that have not in a difference-in-difference framework. In such regions only complaints in high schools decrease after competition is introduced. We highlight the importance of including multiple measures of both competition and work environment.
    Keywords: School competition; work environment; independent schools; public schools; voucher
    JEL: H40 I21 J28
    Date: 2020–03–05
  19. By: Luojia Hu; Xing Huang; Ina Simonovska
    Abstract: We study how the existence of cutoffs in credit scores affects the behavior of homebuyers. Borrowers are more likely to purchase houses after their credit scores cross over a cutoff to qualify them for a higher credit score bin. However, the credit accounts of these individuals (crossover group) are more likely to become delinquent within four years following home purchases than the accounts of those who had stayed in the same bin (non-crossover group). The effect is not only concentrated in subprime bins, but in other bins as well. It is neither limited to pre-crisis period nor curtailed by post-bust reforms. Using recent house price growth to proxy for the incentives for home purchases, we find that the gap in the delinquency rates between crossover and non-crossover groups is larger for areas with higher recent house price growth. Overall, our results indicate that the credit score at the time of home purchase may not be sufficiently informative because of individuals' strategic behavior, and suggest the importance of using the longer history of credit scores rather than just the latest draw in making lending decisions.
    Keywords: Credit scoring systems; home ownership; house prices; housing; mortgages
    JEL: D14 G21 R21 R31
    Date: 2020–02–25
  20. By: Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School)
    Abstract: We review the main studies on house price synchronization and conduct an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. We provide a discussion of the contributing factors of synchronization, with a focus on the demand and supply dimensions. Synchronization across both countries and cities is examined. We report that housing markets globally have become more synchronized, this being particularly clear for cities. Sustained demand for places that are attractive for financial motives but also for lifestyle and sometimes climate, combined with the concurrent fact that such places tend also to be supply-constrained, is likely to lead to more synchronization across markets. The conclusions are important for investors seeking to diversify their housing holdings internationally. The discussion also has policy implications.
    Keywords: Synchronization, Housing markets, House prices, Global liquidity, Housing supply, Housing demand, Magnet cities, Housing policy
    JEL: R31 R21 R38
    Date: 2020–02
  21. By: Bobba, Matteo (Toulouse School of Economics); Frisancho, Veronica (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases when processing information about themselves, but less is known about the underlying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regarding academic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from middle to high school in Mexico City. The paper takes advantage of rich and longitudinal data on subjective beliefs together with randomized feedback about individual performance on an achievement test. On average, the performance feedback reduces the relative role of priors on posteriors and shifts substantial probability mass toward the signal. Further evidence reveals that males and high-socioeconomic status students, especially those attending relatively better schools, tend to process new information on their own ability more effectively.
    Keywords: information, subjective expectations, academic ability, Bayesian updating, overconfidence, secondary education
    JEL: C93 D80 D83 D84 I24
    Date: 2020–01
  22. By: Sanchez-Vidal, Maria
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the consequences of opening out-of-town big-boxes on the commercial structure of cities. I use a discontinuity in a commercial regulation in Spain that restricts the entry of big-box stores in municipalities of less than 10,000 inhabitants for the period 2003 to 2011. I then use this discontinuity as an instrument for the big-box opening. The results show that three years after the big-box opening, around 15% of the grocery stores in the municipality have disappeared. However, some of the empty commercial premises are taken by other new small retailers in other sectors. As a result, the total number of retail stores in the municipality remains unchanged. These results show that a retail shock in the suburbs does not necessarily empty the city center but can also change only the composition of its commercial activity.
    Keywords: retail shocks; city structure; small stores; commercial activity
    JEL: J22 L81 R10
    Date: 2019–07
  23. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Ravi Bhalla
    Abstract: It?s well known that the Great Recession led to a massive reduction in state government revenues, in spite of the federal government?s attempt to ease budget tightening through American Recovery and Reinvestment Act aid to states. School districts rely heavily on aid from higher levels of government for their funding, and, even with the federal stimulus, total aid to school districts declined sharply in the post-recession years. But the local school budget process gives local residents and school districts a powerful tool to influence school spending. In this post, we summarize our recent study in which we investigate how New York school districts reacted when state aid declined sharply following the recession.
    Keywords: State funding; Local Revenue; Education Finance; Property tax
    JEL: Q1 R1
  24. By: Roach, Emily; Chapple, Karen PhD
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2018–12–01
  25. By: Lisa Barrow (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; University of Chicago; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs); Thomas Geraghty (CNA); Christine Mokher (Florida State University); Lauren Sartain (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
    Abstract: The National Board for Professional Teaching Standards recognizes teachers who meet performance standards for “accomplished” educators. States and districts provide support for teachers to obtain this certification, which is considered an honor in the field. Using high school data from Chicago and Kentucky, we examine whether participation in the time- and resource-intensive certification process improves teacher productivity and, ultimately, if recognized teachers are of higher quality than their non-certified peers. We find the certification process itself did not increase teacher productivity. Further, we find mixed evidence on whether certified teachers are more effective at raising test scores than non-certified teachers
    Keywords: ACT assessment; education; human capital; teachers certification
    JEL: E24 I21 I28
    Date: 2020–01–13
  26. By: Julien Sauvagnat; Erik Loualiche; Jean-Noël Barrot; Matthew Plosser
    Abstract: In the years preceding the Great Recession, the United States experienced a dramatic rise in household debt and an unprecedented increase in import competition. In a recent staff report, we outline a link between these two seemingly unrelated phenomena. We argue that the displacement of workers exposed to import competition fueled their demand for mortgage credit, which left many households more vulnerable to the eventual downturn in the housing market.
    Keywords: trade; mortgages; household finance
    JEL: F00
  27. By: Elizabeth Setren; Joydeep Roy; Rajashri Chakrabarti
    Abstract: Charter schools are a major policy initiative at the national and local levels. As charter schools spread, one key question is whether they reduce private school enrollment, especially at Catholic schools. If so, an increase in charters could change public school spending patterns, decrease the number or size of private schools, and alter educational outcomes and school quality for public and private school students. But is this really the case? Maybe not. In this post, based on our 2010 New York Fed staff report, we find that despite widespread fears to the contrary, the expansion of charter schools in Michigan led to only a small decline in private school enrollment.
    JEL: Q1 J00
  28. By: William C. Horrace (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Hyunseok Jung (Department of Economics, University of Arkansas); Shane Sanders (Department of Sports Management, Syracuse University)
    Abstract: We consider a heterogeneous social interaction model where agents interact with peers within their own network but also interact with agents across other (non-peer) networks. To address potential endogeneity in the networks, we assume that each network has a central planner who makes strategic network decisions based on observable and unobservable characteristics of the peers in her charge. The model forms a simultaneous equation system that can be estimated by Quasi-Maximum Likelihood. We apply a restricted version of our model to data on National Basketball Association games, where agents are players, networks are individual teams organized by coaches, and competition is head-to-head. That is, at any time a player only interacts with two networks: their team and the opposing team. We find significant positive within-team peer-effects and both negative and positive opposing-team competitor-effects in NBA games. The former are interpretable as “team chemistries" which enhance the individual performances of players on the same team. The latter are interpretable as “team rivalries," which can either enhance or diminish the individual performance of opposing players.
    Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Peer Effects, Endogeneity, Machine Learning
    JEL: C13 C31 D24
    Date: 2020–03
  29. By: Patrick Lehnert; Michael Niederberger; Uschi Backes-Gellner
    Abstract: This paper develops a novel procedure for proxying economic activity across time periods and spatial units, for which other data is not available. In developing this proxy, we apply machine-learning techniques to a unique historical time series of daytime satellite imagery dating back to 1984. Compared to night lights intensity, a satellite-based proxy that economists commonly use, our proxy has the advantages of more precisely predicting economic activity over a longer time series and at smaller regional levels. We demonstrate the proxy's usefulness for the example of Germany, where data on economic activity is otherwise unavailable, in particular for the regions belonging to the former German Democratic Republic. However, our procedure is generalizable to other regions and countries alike, and thus yields great potential for analyzing historical developments, evaluating local policy reforms, and controlling for economic activity at highly disaggregated regional levels in econometric applications.
    JEL: E01 E23 O18 R11 R14
    Date: 2020–03
  30. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Noah Schwartz
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, state and federal education policies have tried to hold schools more accountable for educating their students. A common criticism of these policies is that they may induce schools to ?game the system? with strategies such as excluding certain types of students from computation of school average test scores. In this post, based on our recent New York Fed staff report, ?Vouchers, Responses, and the Test Taking Population: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Florida,? we investigate whether Florida schools resorted to such strategic behavior in response to a voucher program. We find some evidence that Florida?s schools strategically reclassified weak students into exempt categories, and we draw some lessons that are applicable to New York City?s education policies.
    Keywords: No Child Left Behind; Accountability
    JEL: Q1 R1
  31. By: Bramoullé, Yann (Laval University); Djebbari, Habiba (Aix-Marseille University); Fortin, Bernard (Université Laval)
    Abstract: We survey the recent, fast-growing literature on peer effects in networks. An important recurring theme is that the causal identification of peer effects depends on the structure of the network itself. In the absence of correlated effects, the reflection problem is generally solved by network interactions even in non-linear, heterogeneous models. By contrast, microfoundations are generally not identified. We discuss and assess the various approaches developed by economists to account for correlated effects and network endogeneity in particular. We classify these approaches in four broad categories: random peers, random shocks, structural endogeneity and panel data. We review an emerging literature relaxing the assumption that the network is perfectly known. Throughout, we provide a critical reading of the existing literature and identify important gaps and directions for future research.
    Keywords: assimilation, immigrant health advantage, ethnic attrition
    JEL: J15 J12 I14
    Date: 2020–01
  32. By: Nathan, Max
    Abstract: Despite academic scepticism, cluster policies remain popular with policymakers. This paper evaluates the causal impact of a flagship UK technology cluster programme. I build a simple framework and identify effects using difference-in-differences and synthetic controls on rich microdata. I further test for timing, cross-space variation, scaling and churn channels. The policy grew and densified the cluster, but has had more mixed effects on tech firm productivity. I also find most policy ‘effects’ began before rollout, raising questions about the programme’s added value.
    Keywords: cities; clusters; technology; economic development; synthetic controls
    JEL: L53 O31 R30 R50
    Date: 2019–08
  33. By: Wittberg, Emanuel (Institute for Analytical Sociology); Erlingsson, Gissur (Centre for Local Government Studies)
    Abstract: Does corruption affect the incentives for potential entrepreneurs to start businesses? The traditional view holds that entrepreneurship is inhibited. However, a few recent studies indicate the contrary, supporting a ‘grease the wheels’ perspective. In a novel approach to this question, we combine a local government corruption index and individual-level register data on start-ups in a low-corruption setting: Sweden. We disaggregate the analysis to individual entrepreneurs, focus on corruption in local institutions and hypothesize that local corruption deters potential entrepreneurs. Our findings are twofold. First, rejecting the ‘grease the wheels’ hypothesis, local corruption has a strong local deterring effect on potential entrepreneurs. Second, a minority of entrepreneurs relocate their start-ups from home unicipalities to elsewhere. However, contrary to expectations, relocaters could embody ‘non-productive’ or ‘destructive’ entrepreneurship: they migrate from relatively low-corrupt to relatively high-corrupt municipalities. While migrating is uncommon, and the effect is weak, it nonetheless indicates that relocaters are attracted to conditions where rent-seeking opportunities are present.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Start-ups; Corruption; Local government; Destructive entrepreneurship
    JEL: D73 L26
    Date: 2020–03–09
  34. By: Joseph Tracy; Joshua Abel; Richard Peach
    Abstract: An assiduous follower of the national house price charts that the New York Fed maintains on its web page may have noticed that we appear to be rewriting history as we update the charts every month. For example, last month we reported that the median twelve-month house price change across all counties for December 2012 was 3.68 percent. However, this month, we indicate that this same median change for December 2012 was instead 3.45 percent. Why the change? Was the earlier reported number a mistake that we simply corrected this month? If not, what explains the revision to the initial report?
    Keywords: data revisions; housing; House prices
    JEL: R3
  35. By: Klaus S. Friesenbichler; Werner Hölzl
    Abstract: This paper explores the structural determinants of high-growth firm shares in Austrian regions. The regional level of analysis allows to uncover regularities which are not detectable in firm-level studies. We find that lower mobility barriers, firm exits and technological opportunities, measured by digitalisation intensities, and, to a lesser extent, agglomeration effects are associated with a larger share of high-growth firms. The results suggest that comparisons of shares of high-growth firms across countries and regions should consider differences in the industrial structures together with the often-emphasised differences in policies and regulations.
    Keywords: high growth firms, industrial structure, ICT, Austria, variety, NUTS-3
    Date: 2020–03–12
  36. By: Natacha Aveline-Dubach (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, the private rental sector has grown significantly in Japan. Once an overlooked sector of the market, it has been seized by the financial industry to the point of becoming the second largest REIT residential market in the world. This paper explores the development of residential REITs in Japan, in a context of demographic decline and urban shrinkage. It highlights the strategies of major Japanese real estate groups to diversify their activities and strengthen their control over popular downtown Tokyo neighbourhoods, building on government initiatives to revitalize land markets and stabilize the banking system through real estate financial investment vehicles. As the paper shows, the need to secure financial investors' expectations of attractive returns has led REIT asset managers to target the vast majority of their leasing activity to Japan's young, "promising" corporate employees. By pointing to the mediation of large corporations in the landlord-tenant relationship, the paper brings these neglected actors into the framework of financialized rental housing, and puts the analysis into the broader context of employment.
    Abstract: Au cours des deux dernières décennies, le secteur locatif privé a connu une croissance importante au Japon. Autrefois un secteur négligé du marché, il a été saisi par l'industrie financière au point de devenir le deuxième marché résidentiel de REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) dans le monde. Le présent article explore le développement des REITs résidentielles au Japon, dans un contexte de déclin démographique et de rétrécissement urbain. Il met en lumière les stratégies des grands groupes immobiliers japonais pour diversifier leurs activités et renforcer leur contrôle sur les quartiers recherchés du centre-ville de Tokyo, en s'appuyant sur les initiatives gouvernementales visant à revitaliser les marchés fonciers et à stabiliser le système bancaire par des produits de placement financier. Comme le montre l'article, la nécessité de répondre aux exigences des investisseurs financiers en matière de rendements a conduit les gestionnaires d'actifs des REITs à privilégier la location à des jeunes employés " prometteurs " de grandes entreprises japonaises. En soulignant la médiation des grandes entreprises dans la relation propriétaire-locataire, l'article fait entrer ces acteurs négligés dans le cadre de la financiarisation du logement locatif, et replace l'analyse dans le contexte plus large de l'emploi.
    Keywords: bubble,land use,REIT,Tokyo,financialization,securitization,rental housing,property development,urban planning 2
    Date: 2020
  37. By: Max Livingston; Rajashri Chakrabarti
    Abstract: Today?s post, which complements Monday?s on New York State and a set of interactive graphics released by the New York Fed earlier, assesses the effect of the Great Recession on educational finances in New Jersey. The Great Recession severely restricted state and local funds, which are the main sources of funding for schools. To help avoid steep budget cuts to schools, the federal government allocated $100 billion for education as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), also known as the stimulus. The stimulus money was meant to provide temporary relief to strained state and local budgets. However, after the stimulus funds were exhausted, the economy was still weak and school districts were faced with large budget shortfalls.
    JEL: Q1 R1
  38. By: Athina Skapinaki (University of the Aegean); Maria Salamoura (University of the Aegean)
    Abstract: The current study aims to examine the impact of teachers' job satisfaction and self-efficacy in improving service quality. The results, using clustering, indicated three groups of respondents according to their behavior, as teachers emphasizing on different aspects of marketing: external, interactive and internal marketing. Moreover, factor analysis, revealed that their satisfaction was affected by "Workplace Relationships with the Director and Colleagues", "Educational Management", "Social Recognition and Professional Development", "Relationships with Parents and Students", "Infrastructure" and "Working Conditions and Nature of Work", while "Class and Students' Relationships Management" and "Students' Engagement and Educational Strategies" were influencing parameters of teachers' self–efficacy.
    Keywords: service marketing triangle,Teachers' self-efficacy,teachers' job satisfaction,service quality in schools
    Date: 2020–01–30
  39. By: Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke B.; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.
    Abstract: Children of Asian immigrants in most English-speaking destinations have better academic outcomes, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are under-studied. We employ panel time-use diaries by two cohorts of children observed over a decade to present new evidence that children of Asian immigrants begin spending more time than their peers on educational activities from school entry; and, that the ethnicity gap in the time allocated to educational activities increases over time. By specifying an augmented value-added model and invoking a quantile decomposition method, we find that the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants is attributable mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities and not to socio-demographics or parenting styles. Furthermore, our results show substantial heterogeneity in the contributions of initial cognitive abilities and time allocations by test subjects, test ages and points of the test score distribution.
    Keywords: Migration,Education,Test Score Gap,Time Use Diary,Quantile Regression,Second-generation Immigrants,Australia
    JEL: C21 I20 J13 J15 J22
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Bajgar, Matej; Berlingieri, Giuseppe; Calligaris, Sara; Criscuolo, Chiara; Timmis, Jonathan
    Abstract: This report presents new evidence on industry concentration trends in Europe and in North America. It uses two novel data sources: representative firm-level concentration measures from the OECD MultiProd project, and business-group-level concentration measures using matched OrbisWorldscope-Zephyr data. Based on the MultiProd data, it finds that between 2001 and 2012 the average industry across 10 European economies saw a 2-3-percentage-point increase in the share of the 10% largest companies in industry sales. Using the Orbis-Worldscope-Zephyr data, it documents a clear increase in industry concentration in Europe as well as in North America between 2000 and 2014 of the order of 4-8 percentage points for the average industry. Over the period, about 3 out of 4 (2-digit) industries in each region saw their concentration increase. The increase is observed for both manufacturing and non-financial services and is not driven by digital-intensive sectors.
    Keywords: industry concentration; business dynamics; measurement
    JEL: D40 L11 L25
    Date: 2019–10
  41. By: Hassan F. Gholipour; Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mostafa Javadian
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of air pollution (measured by satellite data of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)) on net outmigration. Using data from the 2011 and 2016 National Population and Housing Censuses for 31 provinces of Iran and applying a panel fixed effects estimation method, our results show that AOD has a positive and significant impact on net outmigration. We also find that higher levels of economic activities in provinces discourage outmigration.
    Keywords: air pollution, migration, Iran
    JEL: Q53 R23
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Christopher Palmer; Haoyang Liu
    Abstract: Given momentum in house prices over business cycles, research on consumer beliefs since the financial crisis has honed in on the potential importance of extrapolative beliefs?myopically assuming trends in asset prices will continue. Extrapolation is frequently cited as a central reason for excessively optimistic expectations about future asset prices, featuring prominently, for example, in the irrational exuberance narrative of Shiller. Other influential work since the Great Recession has emphasized the outsized role that extrapolative optimists can have in bubble formation. In this post, we look at how much dispersion there is in the amount of house price extrapolation and how consequential extrapolative beliefs could be for house price dynamics.
    Keywords: Liberty Street Economics; survey of consumer expectations; Haoyang Liu; Quantile Regression; Home Price Appreciation; extrapolation; heterogeneity; Christopher Palmer; Extrapolation
    JEL: R3 R3
  43. By: Bahar, Dany (Brookings Institution); Choudhury, Prithwiraj (Harvard Business School); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the presence of migrant inventors and the dynamics of innovation in the migrants' receiving countries. We find that countries are 25 to 60 percent more likely to gain advantage in patenting in certain technologies given a twofold increase in the number of foreign inventors from other nations that specialize in those same technologies. For the average country in our sample, this number corresponds to only 25 inventors and a standard deviation of 135. We deal with endogeneity concerns by using historical migration networks to instrument for stocks of migrant inventors. Our results generalize the evidence of previous studies that show how migrant inventors "import" knowledge from their home countries, which translates into higher patenting in the receiving countries. We interpret these results as tangible evidence of migrants facilitating the technology-specific diffusion of knowledge across nations.
    Keywords: innovation, migration, patent, technology, knowledge
    JEL: O31 O33 F22
    Date: 2020–02
  44. By: Koutsiai, Georgia; Ioannidou, Irene
    Abstract: The present project refers to the results of a quantitative research performed throughout the region of Larisa about the application of participatory administration in Greek schools. More specifically, it concerns the participation of the Teachers’ Council in decision making on subjects revolving around the function and administration of a school in Greece (our country), all according to the European educational and political expansion of democratic and participatory processes. The results showed that, on its majority, participatory administration is applied, and that is quite satisfactory. Decisions on subjects regarding school function are mostly collaborative and followed by all members of the Teachers’ Council, who declared that only sometimes are they called to validate a principal’s already taken settlement. However, most educators are adamant on the need to improve the role of the Teachers’ Council, proposing mostly the right election of scholar administrators, the need for clear separation of jurisdiction between teachers and principals, the offer of motive and the possibility of bigger flexibility in school units.
    Keywords: Leadership, administration, participatory administration, decision-taking, effectiveness
    JEL: I20 I29
    Date: 2018–04–27
  45. By: Fabian Eckert; Andrés Gvirtz; Jack Liang; Michael Peters
    Abstract: Empirical researchers often have to map data provided for a "reporting" spatial unit, say counties in 1900, to a "reference" one, say, counties in 2010. We discuss a general method to create such crosswalks: computing the share of the area of each reporting unit nested in a given reference unit. Using these shares, data can be re-aggregated from the reporting to the reference units. We apply the method to construct a crosswalk for US county-level data since 1790 to present-day counties or commuting zones. We also provide the code to generate other crosswalks given maps of reporting and reference units.
    JEL: A1 N11
    Date: 2020–02
  46. By: Reed,Tristan; Trubetskoy,Alexandr
    Abstract: This paper describes a parsimonious approach to the economic analysis of transportation investments. In a gravity model of trade, project benefits may be summarized by a money metric for the change in market access experienced by all cities due to the investment. This metric is equivalent to the change in the value of all payments to urban land?the fixed factor of production. Using this model and an original geographic information system data set of Belt and Road Initiative projects in Eurasia, the paper predicts additional income paid to owners of urban land, for each project and city. Individually, nearly half of the proposed infrastructure is estimated to provide significant gains; however, the rest is estimated to be of little value because it fails to create new least-cost paths between large populations centers. Considering the proposed new transport infrastructure as a system, the share of projects that provide gains increases to almost two-thirds. While gains in market access accrue primarily to low-income countries, gains from many projects accrue outside the project country, and in dollar terms more so to richer countries. This finding is consistent with the idea that infrastructure investment along international trade corridors can be a public good. These estimates should be taken as lower bounds, because they do not include direct benefits to users, for instance, time savings. Even so, they offer a useful way for governments to estimate the short-run gains from infrastructure and prioritize infrastructure spending.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Transport Services,Ports&Waterways,Trade and Services
    Date: 2019–04–11
  47. By: Carozzi, Felipe; Roth, Sefi
    Abstract: We study whether urban density affects the exposure of city dwellers to ambient air pollution using satellite-derived measures of air quality for the contiguous United States. For identification, we rely on an instrumental variable strategy, which induces exogenous variation in density without affecting pollution directly. For this purpose, we use three variables measuring geological characteristics as instruments for density: earthquake risks, soil drainage capacity and the presence of aquifers. We find a positive and statistically significant pollution-density elasticity of 0.13. We also assess the health implications of our findings and find that doubling density in an average city increases annual mortality costs by as much as $630 per capita. Our results suggest that, despite the common claim that denser cities tend to be more environmentally friendly, air pollution exposure is higher in denser cities. This in turn highlights the possible trade-off between reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and preserving environmental quality within cities.
    Keywords: air pollution; urban congestion; density; health
    JEL: Q53 R11 I10
    Date: 2019
  48. By: De Hoyos Navarro,Rafael E.; Attanasio,Orazio Pietro; Meghir,Costas
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of PROBEMS, a scholarship program in Mexico aimed at improving graduation rates and test scores among upper secondary school students from poor backgrounds. The identification strategy is the random allocation into the program, which took place in 2009. The strategy allows measurement of the effects of PROBEMS on test scores and graduation rates three years later in 2012. The paper finds that, on average, the program has no discernible impact on graduation rates or math or Spanish test scores. The size of the sample allows investigation of the reasons for this disappointing result. The paper finds that the program is substantially mis-targeted, with the majority of the recipients not coming from the most disadvantaged families. However, the most plausible explanation for the absence of positive impacts is that many eligible students do not seem to have the minimum learning level to face successfully the academic requirements of upper secondary school. An important policy implication is that a well-targeted scholarship program should be complemented with a remedial education intervention.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Hydrology,Inequality,Disability,Services&Transfers to Poor,Access of Poor to Social Services,Economic Assistance
    Date: 2019–04–22
  49. By: Munguia Corella, Luis Felipe (Comisión Nacional de los Salarios Mínimos - México)
    Abstract: Over the last 30 years, researchers have disputed the mixed evidence of the effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment in the U.S. Whenever the minimum wage has positive or no effects on employment, they appeal to monopsony models to explain their results. However, none of these studies have empirically tested whether their results are due to monopsonistic characteristics in the labor markets. In this paper, I estimate the effects of the minimum wage under concentrated labor markets and low-mobility jobs (two variables that measure monopsony), identify heterogeneous effects among different scenarios derived from the monopsony model, and provide a plausible explanation of the mixed results about the minimum wage effects in the literature. My main findings indicate that minimum wages have an elasticity to teenage employment between -0.333 and -2.3 under perfect competition, which is, as expected, much higher than the usual results in the literature. If the monopsony variable is one standard deviation higher than the baseline, it implies a positive change in elasticity between 0.07 and 0.18. The minimum wage has a positive effect between 0.69 and 0.90 under full monopsonistic labor markets. The results are consistent among different specifications and controlling for possible endogeneity and external shocks to the HHI.
    Date: 2020–02–24
  50. By: Miwa Matsuo (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Japan); Hiroyuki Iseki (School of Architecture, Planning, and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, USA)
    Abstract: Greater mobility enabled by a car is important in getting and maintaining jobs, but to what extent it affects labor market participation rate? This paper investigates both labor market participation rate and employment rate, and whether car availability in the household have any significant association with these probabilities. Our analysis show that availability of a car has positive associations with both labor market participation rate and employment rate, and the associations are particularly stronger for single mothers. Although women with children in a couple-based family households are much less likely to be labor force, single mothers who are head of households are more likely to participate in labor market and seek for jobs regardless availability of cars. After they participate in labor market, employment outcomes of single mothers are better than mothers in couple-based family households if they have cars. Predicted labor market participation rate for a thirty-year old single mother without a car can be as low as a half, while those who with a car may be almost 20% higher. Her employment rate is predicted to increase from approximately 75% to 85% if she has a car. Single mothers usually have multiple responsibilities and face severe special-temporal constraints. Greater mobility enabled by a car may increase time availability together with spatial reach, which may in turn, encourage them to become labor force.
    Date: 2020–02
  51. By: Konstantinos Matakos (King’s College London); Riikka Savolainen (Newcastle University Business School); Janne Tukiainen (University of Turku)
    Abstract: We study whether establishing new asylum-seeker centres influences the redistribution related policy positions of candidates in local elections in Finland - a country where municipalities have significant control over fiscal policies. The sudden and unprecedentedly large inflow of the asylum seekers in autumn 2015 and the resulting establishment of asylum centres facilitates a difference-in-differences research design. We focus on the supply side of redistributive politics and find that on average candidates do not respond to the presence of the centres by proposing less (or more) redistribution in a voting aid application survey. Our estimates are precise enough to rule out even fairly small effects both for all the candidates and the elected ones. In contrast, on the demand side, there is evidence of various voter responses on average suggesting that electoral politics may limit to some extent the impact of voter preferences on such policies. However, in the very smallest municipalities where there are many refugees per capita we find that also the candidates become less favourable towards redistribution. In other words, intensity of exposure to refugee migration seems to be behind any observed supply-side response regarding redistribution.
    Keywords: candidates, immigration, local elections, redistribution, refugee crisis
    JEL: D72 H71 H72 J15
    Date: 2020–02
  52. By: Adda, Jérôme (Bocconi University); Fawaz, Yarine (CEMFI, Madrid)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of import competition on the labor market and health outcomes of US workers. We first show that import shocks affect employment and income, but only in areas where jobs are more intense in routine tasks. Exploiting over 40 million individual observations on health and mortality, we find that import had a detrimental effect on physical and mental health that is concentrated in those areas and exhibits strong persistence. It decreased health care utilisation and increased hospitalisation for a large set of conditions, more difficult to treat. The mortality hazard of workers in manufacturing increased by up to 6 percent per billion dollar import increase.
    Keywords: import competition, routine tasks, health, health behaviour, hospitalisation, mortality
    JEL: F16 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–01
  53. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Nitsch, Volker; Wendland, Nicolai
    Abstract: For a complete cost-benefit analysis of durable infrastructures, it is important to understand how the value of non-market goods such as transit time and environmental quality changes as incomes rise in the long-run. We use difference-in-differences and spatial differencing to estimate the land price capitalization effects of metro rail in Berlin, Germany today and a century ago. Over this period, the negative implicit hedonic price of rail noise tripled. Our results imply income elasticities of the value of noise reduction and transport access of 2.2 and 1.4, substantially exceeding cross-sectional contingent valuation estimates.
    Keywords: Accessibility,spatial differencing,noise,difference-in-differences,income elasticity,land price
    JEL: R12 R14 R41 N73 N74
    Date: 2019
  54. By: Marina Sheresheva (MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University); Anna Polukhina (Volga State University of Technology [Yoshkar-Ola]); Matvey Oborin (PRUE - Plekhanov Russian University of Economics [Moscow])
    Abstract: This paper aims to provide a better understanding of marketing issues relevant to sustainable tourism development. Marketing issues are of crucial importance for Russian regions with unique landscapes and many small towns with their ancient churches, original local museums, and other attractions. The main obstacle for sustainable tourism development in these regions is the lack of prominence and absence of right positioning for target audiences. For the Mari El Republic as one of the most prospective sustainable tourism destinations in Russia, ethno-tourism concept, based on preserving paganism, the traditional religion of the Mari people, can become a solid basis for positioning. The research presented in the paper will contribute to the literature on tourism marketing and sustainable regional development in emerging markets by shedding light on the Russian tourism market diversity, as well as on the uniqueness of small Russian towns and villages as attractive destinations in terms of cultural heritage, history, and ecology. It will also underline the need to understand socio-cultural specifics of tourism destinations to ensure positive impact on the prosperity of local communities that are among the most important stakeholders in destination marketing.
    Keywords: Russia,destination development,Tourism,marketing,sustainable tourism,small settlements,culture
    Date: 2020–01–30
  55. By: Donghoon Lee; Joseph Tracy
    Abstract: In this post we take up the important question of the sustainability of homeownership for first-time buyers. The evaluation of public policies aimed at promoting the transition of individuals from renting to owning should depend not only on the degree to which such policies increase the number of first-time buyers, but also importantly on whether these new buyers are able to sustain their homeownership. If a buyer is unprepared to manage the financial responsibilities of owning a home and consequently must return to renting, then the household may have made little to no progress in wealth accumulation. Despite the importance of sustainability, to date there have been no efforts at measuring the sustainability of first-time homeownership. We provide an example of a first-time homebuyer sustainability scorecard.
    Keywords: mortgage; first time home buyer; FHA; Consumer Credit Panel
    JEL: R3
  56. By: Sarah Sutherland; Rajashri Chakrabarti
    Abstract: Today?s post, which complements Monday?s on New York State, considers the Great Recession?s impact on education funding in New Jersey. Using analysis published in our recent staff report, ?Precarious Slopes? The Great Recession, Federal Stimulus, and New Jersey Schools,? we examine how school finances were affected during the recession and the ARRA federal stimulus period. We find strong evidence of a significant decline?relative to trend?in school revenues and expenditures following the recession as well as key compositional changes that could affect school financing and student learning. Our findings are noteworthy in view of the importance of investing in children?s education for human capital formation and economic growth.
    Keywords: School finance; Abbott Districts; ARRA; Federal Stimulus; Recession
    JEL: Q1 R1
  57. By: Jake Anders (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London); Francis Green (LLAKES Centre for Research on Learning and Life Chances, UCL Institute of Education, University College London); Morag Henderson (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, UCL Institute of Education, University College London); Golo Henseke (LLAKES Centre for Research on Learning and Life Chances, UCL Institute of Education, University College London)
    Abstract: For those who grew up in Britain in the latter half of the 20th century, there is known to be a strong association between social class or family income and attending a private school. However, increasing private school fees and promotion of school choice in the state sector have potential implications for the predictors of participation in private schooling in the 21st century. In this paper, through analysis of rich, longitudinal data from a recent, representative birth cohort study, we provide new evidence on this issue. Given the high and rising fees required to send a child to private school, one might think that the decision is entirely connected with financial resources. However, while these remain an important factor, we argue that other determinants are also important. In particular, we highlight the importance of parental values and geographical proximity to high-quality state school alternatives: a one standard deviation increase in levels of parental traditional values is associated with 2.5 percentage point higher probability of their child attending a private school, while each minute of additional travel time to the nearest state school judged `Outstanding' by England's schools inspectorate is associated with a 0.2 percentage point higher probability of attending a private school. We also examine the characteristics of those who `mix and match' state and private schooling, noting their similarity to private school attendees in terms of their values but lower levels of financial resources.
    Keywords: Private education, Independent schools, Geographical proximity, Family income.
    JEL: I24 L33 H44
    Date: 2020–02
  58. By: Giuseppe Sorrenti; Ulf Zölitz; Denis Ribeaud; Manuel Eisner
    Abstract: We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children’s socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enroll in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer ADHD symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher grades, but they do not score higher on standardized tests. The long-term effects on educational attainment thus appear to be driven by changes in socio-emotional skills rather than cognitive skills.
    Keywords: Socio-emotional skills, randomized intervention, child development, school tracking
    JEL: C93 I21 I24 I26 J24
    Date: 2020–03
  59. By: Grace Bridgman (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates correspondence curves between mathematics and mathematical literacy scores for South African Matric Students from 2010 to 2018. The analysis is an extension of previously estimated correspondence scores as in Simkins (2010) and goes on to discuss potential pass rates in mathematics, were students to enroll in the type of mathematics class for which they have a greater aptitude. The paper argues that greater care should be taken in advising students as to which classes they should enroll in, and argues that mathematics Matric pass rates could be improved at no additional cost by better matching students to the correct class.
    Keywords: education, mathematics, pass rates, South Africa, correspondence scores
    JEL: I24 I25
    Date: 2020
  60. By: Christopher Cotton (Queen's University); Jordan Nanowski; Ardyn Nordstrom; Eric Richert
    Abstract: We examine the impact of a large, randomized Girls’ Education Challenge (GEC) project in rural Zimbabwe. The multifaceted project initially provided information about girls’ rights and education barriers to girls, parents, teachers, and others. Later, the project introduced a learn-to-read program and provided resources such as bicycles and books. The information campaign significantly improved mathematics performance and school enrolment in a short time frame. The subsequent provision of resources and curriculum changes corresponded to improvements in literacy but did not correspond to any additional improvements in mathematics and enrolment beyond what was observed following the information provision alone.
    Keywords: Girls’ Education Challenge, education, empowerment, information provision, impact evaluation, economic development, field experiment, multifaceted intervention
    JEL: C93 I25 O15
    Date: 2020–03
  61. By: Jason Bram; Lauren Thomas
    Abstract: In the ten months that have passed since Hurricanes Irma and Maria ravaged the Caribbean, much interest has been focused on Puerto Rico and its roughly 3.3 million American citizens, who weathered the largest blackout in U.S. history. However, far less attention has been paid to the U.S. Virgin Islands, even though St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John, and a number of smaller islands suffered comparable devastation. This is partly attributable to their much smaller population: the U.S. Virgin Islands (?Virgin Islands?) is home to roughly 105,000 people?1/30th Puerto Rico?s population. Even so, this territory is also part of the United States and the New York Fed?s district. In this post, we examine roughly six months of economic and related data on the Virgin Islands? economy to better ascertain the extent of disruption and subsequent recovery from the devastation of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.
    Keywords: Maria; USVI; Virgin Islands; Irma; hurricane
    JEL: R1
  62. By: Oliver Rehbein (University of Bonn - Department of Economics; Halle Institute for Economic Research); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates that low bank capital carries a negative externality because it amplifies local shock spillovers. We exploit a natural disaster that is transmitted to firms in non-disaster areas via their banks. Firms connected to a strongly disaster-exposed bank with lowest-quartile capitalization significantly reduce total borrowing by 4.8%, employment by 2.7% and tangible assets by 7.5% compared to similar firms connected to a well-capitalized bank. These findings translate to negative regional effects on GDP and unemployment. Banks also particularly reduce their exposure to this-time-unaffected but in general disaster-prone areas following a disaster.
    Keywords: natural disaster, real effects, shock transmission, bank capital
    JEL: G21 G29 E44 E24
    Date: 2020–02
  63. By: Simone Bertoli; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport; Ilse Ruyssen
    Abstract: We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.
    Keywords: international migration, migration intentions, individual-level data, weather shocks, Western Africa
    JEL: F22 J61 O13 O15
    Date: 2020
  64. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Michelle Jiang (Research and Statistics Group)
    Abstract: Amid dialogue about the soaring student loan burden, questions arise about how educational characteristics (school type, selectivity, and major) affect disparities in post-college labor market outcomes. In this post, we specifically explore the impact of such school and major choices on employment, earnings, and upward economic mobility. Insight into determinants of economic disparity is key for understanding long-term consumption and inequality patterns. In addition, this gives us a window into factors that could be used to ameliorate income inequality and promote economic mobility.
    Keywords: Inequality; Education; Employment; Earnings
    JEL: Q1 J00
  65. By: Haltiwanger, John C. (University of Maryland); Spletzer, James R. (U.S. Census Bureau)
    Abstract: We find that most of the rising between firm earnings inequality that dominates the overall increase in inequality in the U.S. is accounted for by industry effects. These industry effects stem from rising inter-industry earnings differentials and not from changing distribution of employment across industries. We also find the rising inter-industry earnings differentials are almost completely accounted for by occupation effects. These results link together the key findings from separate components of the recent literature: one focuses on firm effects and the other on occupation effects. The link via industry effects challenges conventional wisdom.
    Keywords: inequality, industry, occupation
    JEL: J3
    Date: 2020–02
  66. By: Pia M. Orrenius; Madeline Zavodny; Alexander T. Abraham
    Abstract: Immigration, like any positive labor supply shock, should increase the return to capital and spur business investment. These changes should have a positive impact on business creation and expansion, particularly in areas that receive large immigrant inflows. Despite this clear prediction, there is sparse empirical evidence on the effect of immigration on business dynamics. One reason may be data unavailability since public-access firm-level data are rare. This study examines the impact of immigration on business dynamics and employment by combining U.S. data on immigrant inflows from the Current Population Survey with data on business formation and survival and job creation and destruction from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database for the period 1997 to 2013. The results indicate that immigration increases the business growth rate by boosting business survival and raises employment by reducing job destruction. The effects are largely driven by less-educated immigrants.
    Keywords: immigration; business dynamics; firm entry; firm exit; job creation; job destruction
    JEL: J15 J61 L25
    Date: 2020–02–28
  67. By: Maria Tsouri (TIK Centre for Technology Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway); Jens Hanson (TIK Centre for Technology Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway); Håkon Endresen Normann (TIK Centre for Technology Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway)
    Abstract: This article explores the effects of knowledge network participation on firms` international market access. We use a unique dataset comprising Norwegian firm data on RD&D (research, development and demonstration) and market participation in offshore wind. The empirical results show that participating in pilot and demonstration projects positively affects firms’ presence in international markets, while we do not observe the same positive effect for R&D projects. However, the econometric evidence shows that increasing extents of international collaborators, particularly from countries with home markets, contributes to a positive effect of R&D project participation on market access, while negative effects are observed for domestic collaborators. The results suggest that transnational knowledge linkages constitute an important mechanism for international market access, especially for countries with weak or absent domestic markets. We suggest that RD&D policy design could benefit from ensuring international collaboration, particularly with partners in countries with domestic markets, and support for demonstration activities.
    Date: 2020–03
  68. By: Galdo,Virgilio; Li,Yue-000316086; Rama,Martin G.
    Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology for identifying urban areas that combines subjective assessments with machine learning, and applies it to India, a country where several studies see the official urbanization rate as an under-estimate. For a representative sample of cities, towns and villages, as administratively defined, human judgment of Google images is used to determine whether they are urban or rural in practice. Judgments are collected across four groups of assessors, differing in their familiarity with India and with urban issues, following two different protocols. The judgment-based classification is then combined with data from the population census and from satellite imagery to predict the urban status of the sample. The Logit model, and LASSO and random forests methods, are applied. These approaches are then used to decide whether each of the out-of-sample administrative units in India is urban or rural in practice. The analysis does not find that India is substantially more urban than officially claimed. However, there are important differences at more disaggregated levels, with ?other towns? and ?census towns? being more rural, and some southern states more urban, than is officially claimed. The consistency of human judgment across assessors and protocols, the easy availability of crowd-sourcing, and the stability of predictions across approaches, suggest that the proposed methodology is a promising avenue for studying urban issues.
    Date: 2020–02–24
  69. By: Azreen Karim; Ilan Noy
    Abstract: We examine the directly observable determinants of sub-national (central to local) public spending allocations for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation in Bangladesh, a country with a very high exposure to weather risk. We use a comprehensive dataset for the 483 sub-districts (Upazilas) in Bangladesh, tracking disaster risk reduction and adaptation funding provided to each sub-district by the central government during fiscal years’ 2010-11 to 2013-14, disaggregated by the various types of social protection programs. We assess to what extent the primary determinants of such funding flows—such as current hazard risk, socio-economic vulnerability, and political economy considerations—contribute to these funding allocation decisions. We find that flood hazard risk and socio-economic vulnerability are both positively correlated with the sub-district fiscal allocations. We find that political factors do not seem to significantly correlate with these allocations and neither does proximity to the centres of Dhaka and Chittagong. Public spending for adaptive disaster risk reduction, as investigated here, can be a useful complementary intervention tool to other DRR programs, such as insurance or broader social transfers, provided that it is allocated rationally. Broadly, this appears to be the case in Bangladesh. We leave the measuring of the relative efficacy and efficiency of each financing tool for future work.
    Keywords: subnational public spending, disasters, risk reduction, adaptation, Bangladesh
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2020
  70. By: De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Mulabdic,Alen; Ruta,Michele
    Abstract: This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. Specifically, the model builds on the framework by Caliendo and Parro (2015) -- a Ricardian model with sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods and sectoral heterogeneity -- to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects on trade costs of transport infrastructure related to the initiative based on Geographic Information System analysis, the model shows that gross domestic product will increase by up to 3.4 percent for participating countries and by up to 2.9 percent for the world. Because trade gains are not commensurate with projected investments, some countries may experience a negative welfare effect due to the high cost of the infrastructure. The analysis also finds strong complementarity between infrastructure investment and trade policy reforms.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Transport Services,Rules of Origin,Trade Policy,Trade and Multilateral Issues
    Date: 2019–04–01
  71. By: Jason Bram; James A. Orr
    Abstract: In 2008, as the financial crisis unfolded and the U.S. economy tumbled into a sharp recession, the outlook for the tri-state region (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) and especially New York City?the heart of the nation's financial industry?looked grim. Regional economists feared an economic downturn as harsh as the one in 2001, or the even deeper recession of the early 1990s. Now, as the recovery takes hold, we can report that although the economic downturn was severe in the region, with the unemployment rate surging above 9 percent in many places, it was less severe than many had anticipated. This post?which is based on the New York Fed?s May 6 Regional Economic Press Briefing?recaps how the Great Recession affected employment across the region, how the ensuing recovery has progressed, and what the prospects are for job growth as we go forward.
    Keywords: New Jersey; New York; Employment. regional; job outlook; Second District
    JEL: E2
  72. By: Santiago Tobón Zapata
    JEL: D04 H41 J24 K14 K42
    Date: 2020–02–26
  73. By: Antoine Martin; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
    Abstract: It is sometimes said that the Federal Reserve should not engage in ?credit allocation.? But what does credit allocation actually mean? And how do current Fed policies affect the allocation of credit? In this post, we describe two separate ideas often associated with credit allocation. The first idea is that the Fed should not take credit risk, which taxpayers would ultimately have to bear. The second idea is that the Fed?s actions should not influence the flow of credit to particular sectors. We consider whether the Fed?s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) could affect the allocation of credit. In a companion post, we discuss how the economic effects of the Fed?s MBS holdings compare with the economic effects of more traditional holdings.
    Keywords: credit allocation; MBS; asset purchases
    JEL: E5
  74. By: Wang, Lingxiao; Zheng, Yuqing; Dong, Diansheng; Stewart, Hayden; Kaiser, Harry Mason
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
  75. By: Cahu,Paul Marie Michel; Quota,Manal Bakur N
    Abstract: School safety and classroom disciplinary climate have a direct impact on teachers'ability to teach and students'ability to learn. School safety and classroom disciplinary climates have been declining in the Middle East and North Africa region, as is demonstrated in this paper using data from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study and the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study. The paper then moves on to untangle how disruptive learning environments can have negative impacts on student learning outcomes. Thus, the objective of the paper is to analyze the determinants associated with disrupted learning environments, at the school and classroom levels, in the Middle East and North Africa region and to uncover the impacts these environments have on student learning outcomes. This information will provide policy makers with evidence on disrupted learning environments while offering some recommendations on how these conditions can be improved.
    Date: 2019–04–17
  76. By: Endrich, Marek
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the long-term impact of television on hate crimes in Germany. In the German Democratic Republic (GDR) foreign television served as a window to the world and exposed viewers to foreign influences. But certain parts of the GDR were excluded from receiving Western television due to geographical features. I argue that this resulted in long-lasting differences in the attitude towards foreigners. Using the spatial variation in signal strength as a natural experiment, the paper tests the effect of Western broadcasts on the rate of hate crimes. Municipalities with no access to foreign broadcasts exhibit a higher degree of xenophobic violence in the period of the migration crisis in Germany between 2014 to 2017. It shows that media can lead to preference changes that persist for a long time after the exposure.
    Keywords: hate crimes,refugees,natural experiment,media
    JEL: J15 K42
    Date: 2020
  77. By: Pau Insa-S‡nchez (Department of Economic Analysis (Area of Economic History and Institutions), Universidad de Val ncia-Estudi General, Spain)
    Abstract: This article provides an overview of the body of secondary education catedr‡ticos in 19th century Spain using the Escalaf—n General de Catedr‡ticos de Instituto de Segunda Ense–anza of years 1861, 1876 and 1885. This new database of more than 1600 individuals allows us to carry out a detailed analysis of the total number of teachers, their years of experience, the subjects they taught and how they were distributed among the different provinces. Beyond the increase in the number of members, the consolidation of this body of teachers was characterized both by its progressive transformation into an elite body of public servants, and by a close relationship with the economic reality of the country.
    Keywords: Secondary education, catedr‡ticos, teachers, Spain
    JEL: N33 N43 I21 I28
    Date: 2020–03
  78. By: Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver); Trejo, Stephen (University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: The literature on immigrant assimilation and intergenerational progress has sometimes reached surprising conclusions, such as the puzzle of immigrant advantage which finds that Hispanic immigrants sometimes have better health than U.S.-born Hispanics. While numerous studies have attempted to explain these patterns, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic self-identification to identify immigrants' descendants. This can lead to bias due to "ethnic attrition," which occurs whenever a U.S.-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. In this paper, we exploit information on parents' and grandparents' place of birth to show that Mexican ethnic attrition, operating through intermarriage, is sizable and selective on health, making subsequent generations of Mexican immigrants appear less healthy than they actually are. Consequently, conventional estimates of health disparities between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites as well as those between Mexican Americans and recent Mexican immigrants have been significantly overstated.
    Keywords: assimilation, immigrant health advantage, ethnic attrition
    JEL: J15 J12 I14
    Date: 2020–01
  79. By: Jason Bram; James A. Orr
    Abstract: Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50 states and many metropolitan areas, the monthly figures are estimated based on a sample of firms. The annual revisions are based on an almost complete count of workers (now available up through mid-2014) from the records of the unemployment insurance system and re-estimated data for the remainder of the year. In this post, we briefly summarize the mixed but mostly stronger performance in the region in 2014 indicated by these employment revisions. We highlight the most pronounced changes across our District?highlighted by New York City?s even stronger-looking boom?using the percentage change in total employment from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014 as the metric.
    Keywords: Employment Revisions New York New Jersey Puerto Rico
    JEL: R1
  80. By: Pia M. Orrenius; Madeline Zavodny; Stephanie Gullo
    Abstract: U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to remain sluggish over the next decade, and slow labor force growth is a key underlying reason. Admitting more immigrants is one way U.S. policymakers can bolster growth in the workforce and the economy. A larger role for immigrant workers also can help mitigate other symptoms of the economy’s long-run malaise, such as low productivity growth, declining domestic geographic mobility, and falling entrepreneurship, as well as help address the looming mismatch between the skills U.S. employers want and the skills U.S. workers have. While some might argue that technological change and globalization mean there is less need to admit immigrant workers, such arguments fail to account for both recent data and historical experience. Of course, immigration—like anything else—is not without costs, which are disproportionately borne by the least educated. A plan to increase employment-based immigration as a way to spur economic growth could be paired with new programs to help low-skilled U.S. natives and earlier immigrants so that the benefits of immigration are shared more equitably.
    Keywords: U.S. immigration policy; labor market trends
    JEL: J61 J15 J18
    Date: 2020–03–05
  81. By: Daniel I. Rees; Joseph J. Sabia; Gokhan Kumpas
    Abstract: The CDC reports that the association between bullying and suicides among teenagers has generated “concern, even panic,” but polices aimed at combatting bullying have received little attention from researchers. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that state-level anti-bullying laws (ABLs) reduce bullying victimization, depression and suicidal ideation, with the largest estimated effects for female teenagers and teenagers who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning. In addition, ABLs are associated with a 13-16 percent reduction in the suicide rate of female 14- through 18-year-olds. Event-study analyses and falsification tests provide evidence that these estimates can be interpreted causally.
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2020–02
  82. By: Amelie F. Constant
    Abstract: This chapter undertook the monumental task of providing a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration by bringing together the perspectives of the host and the home country. In this endeavor, it reviewed and evaluated all theories about why people move, when they circulate, where they go, who are the people who migrate, who are the people who return, and how they change the economic and social structures in the home country. In the process, it revealed the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlined the importance of non-economic reasons for return. The chapter further provided a state-of-the-art literature review about empirical evidence regarding the disparate phenomena of return, circular and onward migration. It emphasized commonalities and compared differences in findings, while connecting them to the theories, policies and institutions. Return, repeat, and circular migrants are self-selected and extremely heterogeneous people and cannot conform under one theory or empirical study. Their de facto migration comportment can be understood by several different theories and, in the absence of good data, it can be explained by a variety of studies. The chapter ends with a critical conclusion and hope to inspire new avenues of research on the topic.
    Keywords: return, circular, onward, international labor migration, public policy
    JEL: F22 J15 J18 J20 J61
    Date: 2020

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