nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒02‒24
87 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. \\"Flip This House\\": Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble By Joseph Tracy; Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
  2. Understanding Regional Branching Knowledge Diversification via Inventor Collaboration Networks By Adam Whittle; Balázs Lengyel; Dieter F. Kogler
  3. Local Hangovers: How the Housing Boom and Bust Affected Jobs in Metro Areas By Jaison R. Abel; Richard Deitz
  4. Agglomeration and productivity in South Africa: Evidence from firm-level data By Amusa Hammed; Wabiri Njeri; Fadiran David
  5. A House Divided: Geographic Disparities in 21st Century America By Eric S. Rosengren
  6. A new perspective on the international achievement gap: is academic autonomy good for everyone? By Jorge Cimentada
  7. The Geography of Well-being in Colombia By Jesús Peiró-Palomino; Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo; Emili Tortosa-Ausina
  8. Effects of cluster policies on regional innovation networks: Evidence from France By Konan Alain N’Ghauran; Corinne Autant-Bernard
  9. Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies By Julian T Chow
  10. Stay a Little Longer? Teacher Turnover, Retention and Quality in Disadvantaged Schools By Asma Benhenda; Julien Grenet
  11. The drivers of Norway's house prices By Urban Sila
  12. Internal migration and crime in Brazil By Egger Eva-Maria
  13. The Evolution of Home Equity Ownership By Andrew F. Haughwout; Andreas Fuster
  14. Has MBS Market Liquidity Deteriorated? By Michael J. Fleming; Andreas Fuster; Rich Podjasek; Linsey Molloy
  15. The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets By Calvin He; Gianni La Cava
  16. Just Released: Subprime Auto Debt Grows Despite Rising Delinquencies By Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
  17. The Origins of Creativity: The Case of the Arts in the United States since 1850 By Karol J. Borowiecki
  18. Ethnic Networks and the Employment of Asylum Seekers: Evidence from Germany By Stips, Felix; Kis-Katos, Krisztina
  19. Inequalities in the experience of early education in England: access, peer groups and transitions By Campbell, Tammy; Gambaro, Ludovica; Stewart, Kitty
  20. Alcohol Availability and Alcohol-Related Harm: Exploring the Relationship between Local Alcohol Policies and Crime in New Zealand By Lauren Tyler-Harwood; Andrea K. Menclova
  21. Teacher Labor Markets in Developing Countries By Crawfurd, Lee; Pugatch, Todd
  22. Migrants leaving mega-cities: Where they move and why prices matter By Egger Eva-Maria
  23. Differences in Rent Inflation by Cost of Housing By Jonathan McCarthy; Richard Peach
  24. Racial Disparities in Student Loan Outcomes By Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout
  25. The Effect of Mortgage Rate Resets on Debt: Evidence from TransUnion (Part I) By Katya Kartashova
  26. Inferring Floor Area Ratio Thresholds for the Delineation of City Centers Based on Cognitive Perception By Michael Wurm; Jan Goebel; Gert G. Wagner; Matthias Weigand; Stefan Dech; Hannes Taubenböck
  27. Group Incentives for the Public Good : A Field Experiment on Improving the Urban Environment By Newman,Carol Frances; Mitchell,Tara Lynn; Holmlund,Marcus Erik; Fernandez,Chloe Monica
  28. Does sorting matter for learning inequality?: Evidence from East Africa By Jones Sam; Behrman Jere; Dang Hai?Anh; Anand Paul
  29. Planning and Policymaking for Transit-Oriented Development, Transit, and Active Transport in California Cities By Barbour, Elisa; Grover, Salvador; Lamoureaux, Yulia; Chaudhary, Gyanendra; Handy, Susan
  30. Social networks, role models, peer effects, and aspirations By Mani Anandi; Riley Emma
  31. Does energy efficiency predict mortgage performance? By Guin, Benjamin; Korhonen, Perttu
  32. Foreclosures Loom Large in the Region By Jaison R. Abel; Richard Deitz
  33. Regional Development Overview : Challenges, Adopted Strategies, and New Initiatives By Jackson,Randall W; Hewings,Geoffrey J. D.; Rey,Serge; Lozano Gracia,Nancy
  34. Smartphone Use and Academic Performance: First Evidence from Longitudinal Data By Amez, Simon; Vujic, Suncica; De Marez, Lieven; Baert, Stijn
  35. A Spatial Model of Bank Branches in Canada By Heng Chen; Matthew Strathearn
  36. Measuring and Explaining Management in Schools : New Approaches Using Public Data By Leaver,Clare; Lemos,Renata Freitas; Dillenburg Scur,Daniela
  37. Family Background, School-Track and Macro-Area: the Complex Chains of Education Inequalities in Italy Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of social and territorial inequalities on educational outcomes in the Italian upper secondary school. For this purpose, the paper means to respond to 4 general questions: first, to what extent family background affects upper secondary school-choice and whether it has been changing during the last decade. Second, how strong is the school-track effect on learning outcomes net of other main independent variables. Third, to what extent the average family background at school level has an added role in the general explanatory model of inequalities in learning outcomes. Finally, throughout OLS models based on macro-area as a split dependent variable, we aim at accounting for structural explanatory differences between Northern and Southern regions. Findings shows a clear explanatory pattern: rather than the individual factors, it’s a chains of family background, school-choice as well as average school social status to play a determinant role in explaining learning outcomes. This explanatory pattern keeps being valid when splitting up for Italian macro areas (North-West, North-East, Centre, South and South-Islands). Two important exceptions stand out: 1) the effect of school-choice is stronger in South and South-Islands and 2) the effect of the average social status of schools is stronger in Centre and North-East. By Orazio Giancola; Luca Salmieri
  38. Is Canada really an education superpower? The impact of exclusions and non-response on results from PISA 2015. By Jake Anders; Silvan Has; John Jerrim; Nikki Shure; Laura Zieger
  39. Does sorting matter for learning inequality?Evidence from East Africa By Paul Anand; Jere R. Behrman; Hai-Anh H. Dang; Sam Jones
  40. Involuntary migration, inequality, and integration: National and subnational influences By Gisselquist Rachel
  41. Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women By Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna; Scharle, Ágota
  42. The cost of weak institutions for innovation in China By Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Min Zhang
  43. How Severe Was the Credit Cycle in the New York-Northern New Jersey Region? By Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel
  44. E-commerce, Warehousing and Distribution Facilities in California: A Dynamic Landscape and the Impacts on Disadvantaged Communities By Jaller, Miguell PhD; Qian, Xiaodong PhD; Zhang, Xiuli
  45. Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments By Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke B.; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.
  46. “Us” and “Them”: Prosocial attitudes between refugees and host communities exposed to armed conflict: Experimental evidence from Northern Uganda By Adong, Annet; Kirui, Oliver Kiptoo; Achola, Jolly
  47. Refugees’ and Irregular Migrants’ Self-selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where? By Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
  48. The Path of Economic Recovery from Superstorm Sandy By Jason Bram; James A. Orr; Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel
  49. Can Sanctuary Polices Reduce Domestic Violence? By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Deza, Monica
  50. Peer Networks and Entrepreneurship: A Pan-African RCT By Vega-Redondo, Fernando; Pin, Paolo; Ubfal, Diego; Benedetti-Fasil, Cristiana; Brummitt, Charles; Rubera, Gaia; Hovy, Dirk; Fornaciari, Tommaso
  51. Mismatch Cycles By Isaac Baley; Ana Figueiredo; Robert Ulbricht
  52. The effects of the Maputo ring road on the quantity and quality of nearby housing By Fisker Peter; Sohnesen Thomas; Malmgren-Hansen David
  53. On Ridership and Frequency By Simon Berrebi; Taylor Gibbs; Sanskruti Joshi; Kari E Watkins
  54. The Effect of High School Rank in English and Math on College Major Choice By Delaney, Judith; Devereux, Paul J.
  55. How Colleges and Universities Can Help Their Local Economies By Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel
  56. Weighted convergence in Colombian departments: The role of geography and demography By Jesús Peiró-Palomino; William Orlando Prieto-Bustos; Emili Tortosa-Ausina
  58. The Labor Market Impacts of the Transport System – A Proposal for an Evaluation Framework By Kauhanen, Antti; Riukula, Krista; Metsäranta, Heikki
  59. #Portichiusi: the human costs of migrant deterrence in the Mediterranean By Michele Cantarella
  60. Smart City Governance in Developing Countries: A Systematic Literature Review By Si Ying Tan; Araz Taeihagh
  61. Will urbanization raise social mobility in the South, replicating the economic history of the West? By Rains Emily; Krishna Anirudh
  62. Technology Contagion in Networks By Come Billard
  63. Free Riding in Loan Approvals : Evidence from SME Lending in Peru By Arraiz,Irani; Bruhn,Miriam; Roth,Benjamin N.; Ruiz Ortega,Claudia; Stucchi,Rodolfo Mario
  64. Cost Efficiency and Endogenous Regulatory Choices: Evidence from the Transport Industry in France By Joanna Piechucka
  65. Roads and Jobs in Ethiopia By Sanfilippo Marco; Fiorini Matteo
  66. Household Formation within the “Boomerang Generation” By Meta Brown; Donghoon Lee; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Zachary Bleemer
  67. Quality of government and economic growth at the municipal level: Evidence from Spain By Mª Teresa Balaguer-Coll; Isabel Narbón-Perpiñá; Jesús Peiró-Palomino; Emili Tortosa-Ausina
  68. Improving Preschool Provision and Encouraging Demand : Heterogeneous Impacts of a Large-Scale Program By Berkes,Jan Lukas; Bouguen,Adrien; Filmer,Deon P.; Fukao,Tsuyoshi
  69. Some Places are Much More Unequal than Others By Jaison R. Abel; Richard Deitz
  70. Automation and the Value of Time in Passenger Transport By Mogens Fosgerau
  71. In and Out of the Unit: Social Ties and Insurgent Cohesion in Civil War By Anastasia Shesterinina
  72. Spatial competition with unit-demand functions By Fournier, Gaëtan; Van Der Straeten, Karine; Weibull, Jörgen W.
  73. Drivers of cultural participation of immigrants: evidence from an Italian survey By Alessandra Venturini; Enrico Bertacchini; Roberto Zotti
  75. Making a Market: Infrastructure, Integration and the Rise of Innovation By Andersson, David; Berger, Thor; Prawitz, Erik
  76. IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 56 The impact of migrants' remittances and investment on rural youth By Orozco, Manuel; Jewers, Mariellen
  77. The Wage Penalty of Regional Accents By Jeffrey Grogger; Andreas Steinmayr; Joachim Winter
  78. Drivers of Cultural Participation of Immigrants: Evidence from an Italian Survey By Bertacchini, Enrico; Venturini, Alessandra; Zotti, Roberto
  79. ‘Two Gentlemen Sharing’: Rental Discrimination of Same-Sex Couples in Portugal By Gouveia, Filipe Rodrigues; Nilsson, Therese; Berggren, Niclas
  80. Do Big Cities Help College Graduates Find Better Jobs? By Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel
  81. Why Are There More Accidents on Mondays? Economic Incentives, Ergonomics or Externalities By Poland, Michelle; Sin, Isabelle; Stillman, Steven
  82. A “Silent Revolution”: school reforms and Italy’s educational gender gap in the Liberal Age (1861-1921) By Gabriele Cappelli; Michelangelo Vesta
  83. Is Immigration Enforcement Shaping Immigrant Marriage Patterns? By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Arenas-Arroyo, Esther; Wang, Chunbei
  84. Information and Social Norms: Experimental Evidence on the Labor Market Aspirations of Saudi Women By Monira Essa Aloud; Sara Al-Rashood; Ina Ganguli; Basit Zafar
  85. Mental Health, Schooling Attainment and Polygenic Scores: Are There Significant Genetic-Environmental Associations? By Vikesh Amin; Jere R. Behrman; Jason M. Fletcher; Carlos A. Flores; Alfonso Flores-Lagunes; Hans-Peter Kohler
  86. Regional Monetary Policies and the Great Depression By Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi; Gustavo S. Cortes; Marc D. Weidenmier
  87. Adolescent School Bullying Victimisation and Later Life Outcomes By Emma Gorman; Colm Harmon; Silvia Mendolia; Anita Staneva; Ian Walker

  1. By: Joseph Tracy; Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
    Abstract: The recent financial crisis?the worst in eighty years?had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate ?investors??borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties?played a previously unrecognized, but very important, role. These investors likely helped push prices up during 2004-06; but when prices turned down in early 2006, they defaulted in large numbers and thereby contributed importantly to the intensity of the housing cycle?s downward leg.
    Keywords: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel; Mortgage Defaults; Real Estate Investors
    JEL: D1 R3
  2. By: Adam Whittle; Balázs Lengyel; Dieter F. Kogler
    Abstract: The diversification of regions into new technologies is driven by the degree of relatedness to existing capabilities in the region. However, in such case where the necessary skills for diversification are missing, the importation of external knowledge from neighbouring regions or from further away is necessary. Despite the importance of interregional knowledge flows through collaborative work, we still have a very limited understanding of how collaboration networks across regions facilitate diversification processes. The present study investigates the diversification patterns of European NUTS2 regions into new knowledge domains via CPC technology classes reported in patent applications to the European Patent Office. The findings indicate that externally oriented inventor collaboration networks increase the likelihood that a new technology enters a region. The influence of interregional ties is higher if the external knowledge sourcing is based on a diverse set of regions and if collaboration is intense within entities located in distinct regions. Further, the results demonstrate that interregional collaboration networks in general provides the final push into related diversification activities. At the same time, internal collaboration promotes entry into knowledge domains that are weakly related to already present technologies in the region. Finally, evidence shows that diverse external connections and intense collaboration within companies across distant sites compensate for missing related skills in the region.
    Keywords: Economic Diversification, Regional Knowledge Networks, Inventor Collaboration Networks, Firm Linkages, Knowledge Sourcing, Specialisation, Patent Data Analysis
    JEL: O33 O52 R11
    Date: 2020–02
  3. By: Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine); Richard Deitz
    Abstract: What explains why some places suffered particularly severe job losses during the Great Recession? In this post, we extend our recent Current Issues article analyzing regional dimensions of the latest housing cycle and show that metropolitan areas that experienced the biggest housing booms and busts from 2000 to 2008 lost the most jobs during the recession. Not surprisingly, construction activity helps explain the tight link between housing and local job market performance. Given this pattern, we believe that each metro area?s boom-bust experience is likely to continue to influence its growth prospects for some time to come.
    Keywords: Local Economic Performance; Housing
    JEL: R3 R1
  4. By: Amusa Hammed; Wabiri Njeri; Fadiran David
    Abstract: Using comprehensive, anonymized tax administrative data for the 2008–14 period, we examine firm-level productivity in South Africa. Measures of firm-level productivity are included in a spatial autoregressive model that assesses spillovers from total factor productivity originating from agglomeration economies and the spatial diffusion of productivity shocks.We find that across South Africa’s firms, intermediate inputs have the highest impact on firm productivity. The results from the spatial analysis indicate that for a firm in a particular region, its clustering with other firms, having increased market power, and an extended length of stay in a particular region have a greater impact on productivity than do market conditions and firm-specific characteristics associated with firms located in neighbouring regions or municipalities.
    Keywords: Agglomeration,South Africa,Firm productivity
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Eric S. Rosengren
    Abstract: Eric Rosengren’s comments were delivered as part of the opening remarks at the Boston Fed’s 63rd economic conference in Boston, Mass.
    Keywords: geographic disparities; regional disparities; economic policy; interstate migration; rural America; urban America; New England region; Working Cities Challenge; Working Communities Challenge
    Date: 2019–10–04
  6. By: Jorge Cimentada (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: There is a growing literature and interest on the study of the cognitive achievement gap between the top and bottom SES groups. Amidst public concern for this distancing between social classes, researchers have been unable to find an adequate explanation for the increasing cross-country inequality. In this paper, I argue that we need to refocus our efforts towards understanding better what correlates with the academic performance of both SES groups separately. By shifting attention to the amount of school autonomy that different schools have, I show that school autonomy over academic content, courses and text books is associated with a decrease of test scores of nearly .4 standard deviations for the bottom 10% performers in mathematics and literacy – a whole grade’s worth of knowledge. I show that this relationship holds under several specifications, including fixed effect models. In contrast, the same relationship turns positive when relating to the top 10% of students but it’s much weaker than for the bottom performers. These results point out that perhaps an explanation to the changing gaps is not symmetrical between groups but rather group specific. The importance of understanding what affects separate SES groups is paramount to understanding the achievement gap and these preliminary results can have important implications in policy making as they speak directly to education policy makers trying to fine tune the autonomy measures of their country.
    Keywords: Europe, education, inequality
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Jesús Peiró-Palomino (INTECO and Department of Economic Structure, Universitat de València, Spain); Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo (INTECO and Department of Economic Structure, Universitat de València, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: This paper provides a composite indicator of well-being for the 33 Colombian departments in the year 2016. The indicator is built by adapting the well-known OECD Better Life Index to the regional level, and includes the dimensions of income, health, education, safety, housing, environment, labour market, and civic engagement and governance. As to the methodology, Data Envelopment Analysis and Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making techniques are employed, an approach which enables a comparison of well-being across departments and the construction of rankings. The results yield several take-away messages. First, there are substantial disparities in well-being across Colombian departments. Second, despite the fact that average well-being in Colombia is relatively low, the population is concentrated in the departments with the highest well-being levels. Third, geography matters, as neighbouring departments have similar well-being levels, giving rise to a core-periphery duality. Fourth, well-being generally improves and disparities decline when purely economic dimensions (income and labour market) are excluded from the composite indicator.
    Keywords: Colombia; composite indicators; departments; well-being
    JEL: C16 O18 O47 R11
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Konan Alain N’Ghauran (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint-Etienne, France); Corinne Autant-Bernard (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint-Etienne, France)
    Abstract: Despite the growing body of literature evaluating cluster policies, it still remains difficult to establish conclusively their structural effects on regional innovation networks. Focusing on the French cluster policy during the period 2005-2010, this study aims at evaluating how cluster policies influence the structure of local innovation networks following network topologies that may be beneficial for regional innovation. Based on a panel data of four periods and 94 NUTS3 French regions, we estimate spatial Durbin models, allowing us to identify direct, indirect and total effects of cluster policies. The results suggest that cluster policies can result in both positive and negative total effects on the structure of local innovation networks depending on regions’ technological specialisation. Beyond the heterogeneous effects, the results also highlight that cluster policies may lead to a regional competition for the strengthening of innovation networks. This finding echoed previous research pointing out the possible "beggar-thy-neighbour" effects of cluster policies.
    Keywords: Cluster, Regional innovation, Innovation network, Policy evaluation
    JEL: L52 O33 R58
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Julian T Chow
    Abstract: Guyana’s residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks’ housing loans have increased, prompting higher household debt. This paper presents two analyses which suggest that housing prices in Georgetown and banks’ lending to the housing sector appear to be in their early stages of growth. However, given the data limitations and caveats that underpin the analyses, the findings could also indicate early signals of possible risks. Further data collection would support surveillance and deeper studies. At the same time, enhancing prudential measures would help safeguard financial and macroeconomic stability. These include strengthening the monitoring of the housing market, bank lending practices and household debt, as well as fortifying the macroprudential framework, including with more effective toolkits for early intervention.
    Date: 2020–01–31
  10. By: Asma Benhenda (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London); Julien Grenet (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using French administrative data on secondary school teachers, we analyze a non-pecuniary, "career-path oriented" centralized incentive scheme designed to attract and retain teachers in French disadvantaged schools. We rely on a major reform of the structure of this incentive scheme to identify its effect on teacher turnover, retention, and quality in disadvantaged schools. We find this incentive scheme has a statistically significant positive effect on the number of consecutive years teachers stay in disadvantaged schools and decreases the probability of in- experienced teachers in disadvantaged schools to leave the profession. However, we find no statistically significant effect on the teacher experience gap nor the student achievement gap between disadvantaged and non disadvantaged schools.
    Keywords: teachers, teacher mobility, teacher retention, educational inequalities, education prioritaire
    JEL: I21 I22 J20
    Date: 2020–01
  11. By: Urban Sila
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the drivers of house prices in Norway, using a cross-country panel framework. Empirical results confirm that house prices are determined by numerous demand and supply factors, including income, demographics, macroeconomic conditions, stock of housing and institutional features. The results suggest that high and rising house prices in Norway are principally driven by market fundamentals – high household incomes, wealth, low interest rates and a growing population. Yet, despite strong fundamentals, comparing predicted house prices as estimated by the model and observed house prices suggests that house prices in Norway have been overvalued to a degree since the global financial crisis. Some structural and regulatory features of the Norwegian housing market also put upward pressure on prices: the favourable tax treatment of home ownership, strict rent controls and lax tenant-landlord regulations. Improving further the responsiveness of housing supply to demand could also ease price pressures.
    Keywords: house prices, housing market, land-use and rental regulations, mortgage markets, Norway, panel estimation
    JEL: R21 R31 R38 H20 H24 G21
    Date: 2020–02–10
  12. By: Egger Eva-Maria
    Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that the social effects of internal migration may be substantially different from those associated with the arrival of international migrants.In this paper, I provide the first evidence of the effect of internal migration on crime with longitudinal data from Brazilian microregiões.Using local labour demand shocks in the manufacturing sector as an instrument for migratory flows, I find that a 10 per cent increase in the in-migration rate translates into a 6 per cent increase in the homicide rate in destinations.Exploring possible channels, I do not find that crime-prone migrants drive the results. The effect is only significant in locations with high past crime rates, indicating crime inertia, and in places with a small informal sector, suggesting that the impact of internal migration is conditioned by the ability of local labour markets to accommodate migrants.
    Keywords: Crime,Internal migration,Brazil
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Andrew F. Haughwout; Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research)
    Abstract: In yesterday?s post, we discussed the extreme swings that household leverage has taken since 2005, using combined loan-to-value (CLTV) ratios for housing as our metric. We also explored the risks that current household leverage presents in the event of a significant downturn in prices. Today we reverse the perspective, and consider housing equity?the value of housing net of all debt for which it serves as collateral. For the majority of households, housing equity is the principal form of wealth, other than human capital, and it thus represents an important form of potential collateral for borrowing. In that sense, housing equity is an opportunity in the same way that housing leverage is a risk. It turns out that aggregate housing equity at the end of 2015 was very close, in nominal terms, to its pre-crisis (2005) level. But housing wealth has moved to a different group of people?made up of people who are older and have higher credit scores than a decade ago. In today?s post, we look at the evolution of housing equity and its owners.
    Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Equity
    JEL: D1 R3
  14. By: Michael J. Fleming; Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research); Rich Podjasek; Linsey Molloy
    Abstract: Mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the government-backed entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, or so-called ?agency MBS,? are the primary funding source for U.S. residential housing. A significant deterioration in the liquidity of the MBS market could lead investors to demand a premium for transacting in this important market, ultimately raising borrowing costs for U.S. homeowners. This post looks for evidence of changes in agency MBS market liquidity, complementing similar posts studying liquidity in U.S. Treasury and corporate bond markets.
    Keywords: Mortgage-backed securities; Liquidity
    JEL: G1 R3
  15. By: Calvin He (Reserve Bank of Australia); Gianni La Cava (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: We document that the effect of monetary policy on housing prices varies substantially by local housing market. We show that this heterogeneity across local housing markets can be partly explained by variation in housing supply conditions – housing prices are typically more sensitive to changes in interest rates in areas where land is more expensive. But other factors are important too. Specifically, we find the sensitivity is greater in areas where incomes are relatively high, households are more indebted and there are more investors. Taken together, this suggests that the state of the economy can affect the sensitivity of housing prices to monetary policy. We also directly explore how monetary policy affects housing wealth inequality. We find that housing prices in more expensive areas are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than in cheaper areas. This suggests that lower interest rates increase housing wealth inequality, while higher rates do the opposite. However, these effects appear to be temporary.
    Keywords: housing; monetary policy; mortgage debt; inequality; heterogeneity
    JEL: D31 E21 E52
    Date: 2020–02
  16. By: Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw
    Abstract: The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed?s Center for Microeconomic Data showed a small increase in overall debt in the third quarter of 2016, bolstered by gains in non-housing debt. Mortgage balances continue to grow at a sluggish pace since the recession while auto loan balances are growing steadily. The rise in auto loans has been fueled by high levels of originations across the spectrum of creditworthiness, including subprime loans, which are disproportionately originated by auto finance companies. Disaggregating delinquency rates by credit score reveals signs of distress for loans issued to subprime borrowers?those with a credit score under 620. In this post we take a deeper dive into the observed growth in auto loan originations and delinquencies. This analysis and our Quarterly Report are based on the New York Fed?s Consumer Credit Panel, a data set drawn from Equifax credit reports.
    Keywords: Auto Loans; Household Finance
    JEL: D1
  17. By: Karol J. Borowiecki (Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark)
    Abstract: This research illuminates the historical development of creative activity in the United States. Census data is used to identify creative occupations (i.e., artists, musicians, authors, actors) and data on prominent creatives, as listed in a comprehensive biographical compendium. The analysis rst sheds light on the socio-economic background of creative people and how it has changed since 1850. The results indicate that the proportion of female creatives is relatively high, time constraints can be a hindrance for taking up a creative occupation, racial inequality is present and tends to change only slowly, and education plays a signi cant role for taking up a creative occupation. Second, the study systematically documents and quanti es the geography of creative clusters in the United States and explains how these have evolved over time and across creative domains. Third, it investigates the importance of outstanding talent in a discipline for the local growth of an artistic cluster.
    Keywords: Creativity, artists, geographic clustering, agglomeration economies, urban history
    JEL: R1 N33 Z11
    Date: 2019–03
  18. By: Stips, Felix (University of Göttingen); Kis-Katos, Krisztina (University of Goettingen)
    Abstract: Using novel registry data on the population of asylum seekers in Germany for the period from 2010 to 2016, and quasi-experimental variation induced by German allocation policies, we identify causal effects of the size and composition of local co-national networks on formal labor market access of asylum seekers. While the individual employment probability is not linked to network size, it increases with the number of employed local co-national asylum seekers and decreases with the number of non-employed network members, thereby underlining the central importance of network quality.
    Keywords: social networks, refugees, employment, Germany, dispersal policies
    JEL: F22 J61 R23
    Date: 2020–01
  19. By: Campbell, Tammy; Gambaro, Ludovica; Stewart, Kitty
    Abstract: This paper summarises the output of a Nuffield-funded research project exploring inequalities in three aspects of children’s experience in early education in England. The main focus of the project was on ‘peer effects’ in pre-school settings: we examine the extent of clustering by income and language background and explore associations between pre-school peer group and children’s outcomes in early primary school. The report also presents findings on access to the full duration of the free entitlement to early education, and on variation in children’s experience of the transition onward to reception class. We find much lower levels of clustering in pre-schools in England than have been identified in studies for the US, particularly by income, and little evidence that pre-school peer group is related to early school attainment as assessed by teachers in reception and Year 2. But we identify significant levels of non-take-up of the full entitlement, particularly among disadvantaged groups. A higher prevalence in the local authority of some types of pre-school appears to make a difference: more voluntary sector or Sure Start provision is associated with higher take-up, while more Sure Start provision is further associated with lower inequalities in access between different groups. We also find disparities in the stability of transitions to reception class. In the cohort we examine, children from lowincome backgrounds and some minority ethnic groups are much more likely to experience the most secure transition – from a school nursery class to a reception class in the same school, with high numbers of known peers – because they are more likely to be in school nurseries to begin with. But among those attending school nurseries, some groups, including Black Caribbean children and those with a statement of special educational needs, are significantly less likely than others to continue to reception in that school. The disparity is of potential concern given wider disadvantages facing these groups of children.
    Keywords: early education; childcare; ECEC; inequality; access; take-up; peer effects; EYP42338
    JEL: I28 J13
    Date: 2019–06–07
  20. By: Lauren Tyler-Harwood; Andrea K. Menclova (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: We exploit spatial and temporal variation in the implementation of local alcohol policies in New Zealand to study their impact on crime. To do this, we construct a detailed dataset on local alcohol policies applicable across territorial authorities between July 2014 and January 2019. We then merge in monthly crime counts and estimate Poisson regressions of the relationship, controlling for unobservable local characteristics and time trends. Overall, local alcohol policies do not appear to have reduced crime. This result holds for specific policy dimensions and their stringency, and is reasonably robust across crime types, days/times of occurrence, and socio-economic subgroups.
    Keywords: Local alcohol policies, Crime, Availability theory
    JEL: I12 I18 H75
    Date: 2020–02–01
  21. By: Crawfurd, Lee; Pugatch, Todd
    Abstract: The types of workers recruited into teaching and their allocation across classrooms can greatly influence a country’s stock of human capital. This paper considers how markets and non-market institutions determine the quantity, wages, skills, and spatial distribution of teachers in developing countries. Schools are a major source of employment in developing countries, particularly for women and professionals. Teacher compensation is also a large share of public budgets. Teacher labor markets in developing countries are likely to grow further as teacher quality becomes a greater focus of education policy, including under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Theoretical approaches to teacher labor markets have emphasized the role of non-market institutions, such as government and unions, and other frictions in teacher employment and wages. The evidence supports the existence and importance of such frictions in how teacher labor markets function. In many countries, large gaps in pay and quality exist between teachers and other professionals; teachers in public and private schools; teachers on permanent and temporary contracts; and teachers in urban and rural areas. Teacher supply increases with wages, though teacher quality does not necessarily increase. However, most evidence comes from studies of short-term effects among existing teachers. Evidence on effects in the long-term, on the supply of new teachers, or on changes in non-pecuniary compensation is scarcer.
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Egger Eva-Maria
    Abstract: Traditional economic models predict rural to urban migration during the structural transformation of an economy. In middle-income countries, it is less clear which direction of migration to expect.In this paper I show that in Brazil as many people move out of as into metropolitan cities, and they mostly move to mid-sized towns.I estimate the determinants of out-migrants’ destination choice, accounting for differences in earnings, living costs, and amenities, and I test whether the migrants gain economically by accepting lower wages but enjoying lower living costs.The findings suggest that the destination choice of out-migrants minimizes the costs of moving. On average, city-leavers realize higher real wages, including lowskilled migrants who would lose out in nominal terms.The paper thus provides evidence on economic incentives to leave big cities in a middle-income country.
    Keywords: secondary towns,Prices,Brazil,Internal migration
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Jonathan McCarthy; Richard Peach
    Abstract: We know that different people experience different inflation rates because the bundle of goods and services that they consume is different from that of the \\"typical\\" household. This phenomenon is discussed in this publication from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and this article from the New York Fed. But did you know that there are substantial differences in inflation experience depending on the level of one's housing costs? In this post, which is based upon our updated staff report on ?The Measurement of Rent Inflation,? we present evidence that price changes for rent, which comprises a large share of consumer spending, can vary considerably across households. In particular, we show that rent inflation is consistently higher for lower-cost housing units than it is for higher-cost units. Note that since owners' equivalent rent inflation is estimated from observed changes in rent of rental units, this finding applies to homeowners as well. While we cannot be certain about why this is the case, it appears to be at least partly related to how additional units are supplied to the housing market: in higher-price segments additional units primarily come from new construction, while most of the increase in lower-price segments comes from units that previously were occupied by higher-income households.
    Keywords: differences in rent inflation by rent level; measuring rent inflation
    JEL: E2 R3
  24. By: Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Donghoon Lee; Andrew F. Haughwout
    Abstract: Total household debt balances increased by $92 billion in the third quarter of 2019, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed?s Center for Microeconomic Data. The balance increase reflected nearly across the board gains in various types of debt, with the largest gains of $31 billion in mortgage balances (0.3 percent) and $20 billion in student loan balances (1.4 percent). The Quarterly Report, and the following analysis, are both based on the New York Fed?s Consumer Credit Panel, which is itself based on anonymized Equifax credit report data. Our report also provides breakouts by age, and by state, demonstrating that patterns of borrowing and repayment are heterogeneous by those factors. But there are many other dimensions across which we see varying credit market outcomes.
    Keywords: heterogeneity; consumer credit panel; household finance; CCP; student loans
    JEL: D1 I2
  25. By: Katya Kartashova
    Abstract: This note studies how decreases in mortgage rates affect the behaviour of borrowers in terms of spending on durable goods and repaying debt. It focuses on borrowers with the prevailing five-year fixed-rate mortgage term in Canada who renewed their contracts at lower interest rates between January 2015 and December 2016.
    Keywords: Credit and credit aggregates; Housing; Interest rates; Monetary Policy; Transmission of monetary policy
    JEL: D12 D14 E43 E52 G21 R31
    Date: 2020–01
  26. By: Michael Wurm; Jan Goebel; Gert G. Wagner; Matthias Weigand; Stefan Dech; Hannes Taubenböck
    Abstract: The morphology of today’s cities is the result of historic urban developments and ongoing urban transformation resulting in complex urban spatial structures. While functionally as well as spatially, cities are structured into sub-units such as the city center, business districts, residential areas or industrial and commercial zones, their precise localization in the geographic space is sometimes difficult. City centers in particular are difficult to grasp because they stand for many different urban functions. Generally, they are characterized as areas of high densities, such as employment, population or commerce, but also as areas of high structural densities. In past studies, various approaches, data and cut-off values have been presented to separate city centers from the surrounding transition zones in geographical information systems based on density values. To overcome the difficulty in defining the right density threshold, the current study presents an approach which integrates the subjective perception of citizens on the urban spatial structure and relate it to the floor area ratio to delineate city centers to infer a characteristic density threshold. In a large empirical study for 67 monocentric cities in Germany we observe a decreasing floor area ratio gradient towards the urban fringes. The result of the study reveals a relative threshold for city centers at around 30% of the density of the ‘central place’
    Keywords: city center; cognitive perception; urban spatial structure; density; floor area ratio
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Newman,Carol Frances; Mitchell,Tara Lynn; Holmlund,Marcus Erik; Fernandez,Chloe Monica
    Abstract: How to maintain communal spaces is an important concern in many developing countries, particularly in urban environments. But what strategies can communities use to overcome the public goods problems involved in maintaining their local environment? This paper investigates whether changing the incentives for a subset of the community to contribute to the public good can lead to a shift to a more efficient equilibrium for the community as a whole. The analysis uses a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of a program called"Operation Clean Neighborhood,"which targets established community-based organizations and encourages them, through social recognition and low-value, in-kind incentives, to work toward keeping their neighborhoods clean, with the ultimate goal of reducing flooding in these areas. The findings show that, after one year, the intervention was effective in engaging communities and improving the cleanliness of the neighborhood. There is also evidence that this leads to reduced levels of flooding. The analysis uncovers important differences in the effectiveness of the program between areas that have had increased investment in drainage infrastructure and those that have not. It also addresses the issue of spillovers, an important consideration in densely populated urban centers.
    Date: 2019–12–17
  28. By: Jones Sam; Behrman Jere; Dang Hai?Anh; Anand Paul
    Abstract: Inequalities in children’s learning are widely recognized to arise from variations in both household- and school-related factors.While few studies have considered the role of sorting between schools and households, even fewer have quantified how much sorting contributes to educational inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.We fill this gap using data on over one million children from three countries in Eastern Africa.Applying a novel variance decomposition procedure, our results indicate that sorting of pupils across schools accounts for at least 8 per cent of the total test-score variance and that this contribution tends to be largest for children from families at either end of the socio-economic spectrum.Empirical simulations of steady-state educational inequalities reveal that policies to mitigate the consequences of sorting could substantially reduce inequalities in education.ÂÂ
    Keywords: sorting,Inequality of opportunities,variance decomposition,access to education,Africa
    Date: 2019
  29. By: Barbour, Elisa; Grover, Salvador; Lamoureaux, Yulia; Chaudhary, Gyanendra; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: This report provides research findings from the first year of a two-year research project on patterns of local policymaking in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD), transit, and active transport. The project aims to assess motivations, perceived obstacles, and priorities for development near transit, in relation to patterns of local policy adoption, from the perspective of city planners in the state’s four largest regions: the San Francisco Bay, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento metropolitan areas. This first-stage report discusses research and policy context that informed the methodology, findings from the analysis of results from an online survey of city planning directors administered in the spring of 2019, and findings from two case studies of TOD policymaking in urban central cities, namely Los Angeles and Sacramento. A sampling methodology for conducting further case studies of TOD policymaking during the upcoming second phase of the project is also described, based on findings from the first year of the research. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transit-oriented development, transit, land-use planning, policy adoption
    Date: 2020–02–01
  30. By: Mani Anandi; Riley Emma
    Abstract: We review the literature on pathways through which social networks may influence social mobility in developing countries.We find that social networks support members in tangible waysâ۠via access to opportunities for migration, credit, trading relationships, information on jobs, and new technologiesâ۠as well as in intangible ways, such as shaping their beliefs, hopes, and aspirations, through role models and peers. Nevertheless, networks can disadvantage non-members, typically the poor and marginalized.Recent evidence suggests a range of policy tools that could help mitigate disadvantages faced by excluded groups: temporary incentives to encourage experimentation into new regions, occupations, or technologies, and role modelsâ۠real and virtualâ۠to mitigate psychosocial challenges faced by marginalized groups.Targeting large fractions of marginalized groups simultaneously could increase the effectiveness of such policies by leveraging the influence of existing social networks.
    Keywords: geographic labour mobility,Social networks,Migration,Behavioral economics,cultural economics,human resources
    Date: 2019
  31. By: Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England); Korhonen, Perttu (Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority)
    Abstract: We examine a unique micro-level data set on residential mortgages in the United Kingdom. Our analyses suggest that mortgages against energy-efficient properties are less frequently in payment arrears than mortgages against energy-inefficient properties. This result is robust when controlling for other relevant determinants of mortgage default including borrower income and the loan to value ratio of the mortgage. We conclude that energy efficiency is a relevant predictor of mortgage defaults.
    Keywords: Credit risk; energy efficiency; green mortgages
    JEL: G21 Q40
    Date: 2020–01–31
  32. By: Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine); Richard Deitz
    Abstract: Households in the New York-northern New Jersey region were spared the worst of the housing bust and have generally experienced less financial stress than average over the past several years. However, as the housing market has begun to recover both regionally and nationally, the region is faring far worse than the nation in one important respect?a growing backlog of foreclosures is resulting in a foreclosure rate that is now well above the national average. In this blog post, we describe this outsized increase in the region?s foreclosure rate and explain why it has occurred. We then discuss why the large build-up in foreclosures could cause a headwind for home-price gains in the region.
    Keywords: Foreclosures; Housing Recovery; Home Prices
    JEL: D1 R3 R1
  33. By: Jackson,Randall W; Hewings,Geoffrey J. D.; Rey,Serge; Lozano Gracia,Nancy
    Abstract: Despite the increasing attention in recent years to the spatial dimensions of economic development, consideration of the importance of space and the recognition that macro, aspatial perspectives can prove to be misleading are not new. Around the world, much of the disappointment with the outcomes from spatial interventions may be traced to a lack of understanding of how regional economies work. This paper reviews the challenges that the consideration of regions brings into economic analysis. This work provides an overview of some of the key methods and tools that can be used to gain a better understanding of how regional economies work. The review aims to guide practitioners and analysts in the use of tools for regional economic analysis and inform discussion of the challenges regions face and the opportunities on which they can build.
    Date: 2019–11–11
  34. By: Amez, Simon (Ghent University); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp); De Marez, Lieven (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University)
    Abstract: To study the causal impact of smartphone use on academic performance, we collected – for the first time worldwide – longitudinal data on students' smartphone use and educational performance. For three consecutive years we surveyed all students attending classes in eleven different study programmes at two Belgian universities on general smartphone use and other drivers of academic achievement. These survey data were merged with the exam scores of these students. We analysed the resulting data by means of panel data random effects estimation controlling for unobserved individual characteristics. A one standard deviation increase in overall smartphone use results in a decrease of 0.349 points (out of 20) and a decrease of 2.616 percentage points in the fraction of exams passed.
    Keywords: smartphone use, academic performance, longitudinal data, causality
    JEL: I23 J24
    Date: 2019–12
  35. By: Heng Chen; Matthew Strathearn
    Abstract: This research aims to empirically analyze the spatial distribution of bank-branch networks in Canada. We study the market structure (both industrial and geographic concentrations) within the networks’ own or adjacent postal areas. Our empirical framework considers branch density (the ratio of the total number of branches to the area size) by employing a spatial two-way fixed-effects model. Our main finding is that there are no effects associated with market structure; however, there are strong spatial socioeconomic effects from the networks' own and nearby areas. In addition, we also study the effect of spatial competition from rival banks: we find that large banks and small banks tend to avoid markets dominated by their competitors.
    Keywords: Firm dynamics; Market structure and pricing
    JEL: L1 R3
    Date: 2020–01
  36. By: Leaver,Clare; Lemos,Renata Freitas; Dillenburg Scur,Daniela
    Abstract: Why do some students learn more in some schools than others? One consideration receiving growing attention is school management. To study this, researchers need to be able to measure school management accurately and cheaply at scale, and also explain any observed relationship between school management and student learning. This paper introduces a new approach to measurement using existing public data, and applies it to build a management index covering 15,000 schools across 65 countries, and another index covering nearly all public schools in Brazil. Both indices show a strong, positive relationship between school management and student learning. The paper then develops a simple model that formalizes the intuition that strong management practices might be driving learning gains via incentive and selection effects among teachers, students and parents. The paper shows that the predictions of this model hold in public data for Latin America, and draws out implications for policy.
    Keywords: Economics of Education,Education Finance,Educational Sciences,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Institutions&Facilities,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,De Facto Governments,Democratic Government,Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform
    Date: 2019–11–06
  37. By: Orazio Giancola (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Luca Salmieri (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)
    Keywords: education inequalities, social origins, schooling tracking, Italy, regional divides
    JEL: I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2020–02
  38. By: Jake Anders (University College London); Silvan Has (University College London); John Jerrim (University College London); Nikki Shure (University College London); Laura Zieger (University College London)
    Abstract: The purpose of large-scale international assessments is to compare educational achievement across countries. For such cross-national comparisons to be meaningful, the students who take the test must be representative of the whole population of interest. In this paper we consider whether this is the case for Canada, a country widely recognised as high-performing in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Our analysis illustrates how the PISA 2015 data for Canada suffers from a much higher rate of student exclusions, school non-response and pupil non-response than other high-performing countries such as Finland, Estonia, Japan and South Korea. We discuss how this emerges from differences in how children with Special Educational Needs are defined and rules for their inclusion in the study, variation in school response rates and the comparatively high rates of pupil test absence in Canada. The paper concludes by investigating how Canada’s PISA 2015 rank would change under different assumptions about how the non-participating students would have performed were they to have taken the PISA test.
    Date: 2019–12–01
  39. By: Paul Anand (Open University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Hai-Anh H. Dang (World Bank); Sam Jones (UNU-WIDER)
    Abstract: Inequalities in children’s learning are widely recognized to arise from variations in both household and school-related factors. While few studies have considered the role of sorting between schools and households, even fewer have quantified how much sorting contributes to educational inequalities in low- and middle-income countries. We fill this gap using data on over 1 million children from three East African countries. Applying a novel variance decomposition procedure, our results indicate that sorting of pupils across schools accounts for at least 8 percent of the total test-score variance, eqyuivalent to half a year of schooling or more. This contribution tends to be largest for children from families at the ends of the socio-economic spectrum. Empirical simulations of steady-state educational inequalities reveal that policies to mitigate the consequences of sorting could substantially reduce inequalities in education.
    Keywords: inequality of educational opportunity; variance decomposition; sorting; East Africa
    JEL: F63 I24 I25
    Date: 2019–12–31
  40. By: Gisselquist Rachel
    Abstract: Across the world, we observe different experiences in terms of inequality between migrant and ‘host-country’ populations. What factors contribute to such variation? What policies and programmes facilitate ‘better’ economic integration?This paper, and the broader collection of studies that it frames, speaks to these questions through focused comparative consideration of two migrant populations (Vietnamese and Afghan) in four Western countries (Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US). It pays particular attention to involuntary migrants who fled conflict in their home regions beginning in the 1970s.The paper builds in particular on the literature on segmented assimilation theory, exploring new linkages with work on horizontal inequality, to highlight the role of five key sets of factors in such variation: governmental policies and institutions; labour market reception; existing co-ethnic communities; human capital and socioeconomic characteristics; and social cohesion or ‘groupness’.
    Keywords: Segmented assimilation,Horizontal inequality,Migration,Economic integration,Involuntary migration,Inequality
    Date: 2019
  41. By: Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna; Scharle, Ágota
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4-26.0% and delayed motherhood by two years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions and still births, and contains information on the time of conception precise to the week. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.
    Keywords: Education,Compulsory school leaving age,Teenage fertility,Disadvantaged ethnic minorities,Regression discontinuity design
    JEL: J13 C21 I26
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Min Zhang
    Abstract: Does the variation in the quality of local government institutions affect the capacity of firms to innovate? This paper uses a unique dataset that combines the specific features of 2,700 firms with the institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of the 25 cities in China where they operate, in order to assess the extent to which institutional quality – measured across four dimensions: rule of law, government effectiveness, corruption, and regulatory quality – affects both the innovation probability and intensity of firms. The results of the econometric analysis show that poor institutional quality in urban China is an important barrier for firm-level innovation. In particular, a deficient rule of law, high corruption, and a weak regulatory quality strongly undermine firm-level innovation. The role of these factors is far more limited in the case of innovation intensity. Better institutions also reduce the amount of time firms spend dealing with government regulations in order to facilitate innovation. The results also indicate that the cost of weak institutions for innovation is higher for private than for state-owned firms, at least in the early stages of innovation. In general, differences in institutional quality generate local urban ecosystems that impinge on the propensity of firms to innovate.
    Keywords: innovation, institutions, government quality, firms, cities, China
    JEL: H1 O3 O31
    Date: 2020–02
  43. By: Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine)
    Abstract: U.S. households accumulated record-high levels of debt in the 2000s, and then began a process of deleveraging following the Great Recession and financial crisis. In some parts of the country, the rise and fall in household indebtedness was quite a bit sharper than in others. In this post, we highlight some of our research examining the magnitude of the recent credit cycle, and focus on how significant it?s been in New York State and northern New Jersey. Compared with the nation as a whole, we find that the region experienced a relatively mild credit cycle, although pockets of elevated household financial stress exist.
    Keywords: Household Debt; Housing; Mortgage; Credit Cycle
    JEL: D1 R3 R1
  44. By: Jaller, Miguell PhD; Qian, Xiaodong PhD; Zhang, Xiuli
    Abstract: This work addresses the distribution of warehouses and distribution centers (W&DCs) influenced by e-commerce, through spatial analysis and econometric modelling. Specifically, this work analyzes the concentration of W&DCs in various metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in California between 1989 and 2016-18; and studies the spatial relationships between W&DC distribution and other demographic and environmental factors through econometric modeling techniques. The work conducts analyses to uncover common trends in W&DC distribution. The analyses used aggregate establishment, employment, and other socio-economic information, complemented with transportation related variables. The results: 1) confirm that the weighted geometric centers of W&DCs have shifted slightly towards city central areas in all five MPOs; 2) W&DCs show a non-decreasing trend between 2008 and 2016; and 3) areas with more serious environmental problems are more likely to have W&DCs. A disaggregate analyses of properties sold and leased in one of the study regions shows a trend where businesses are buying or leasing smaller facilities, closer to the core of consumer demand. Among other factors, the growth of e-commerce sales, and expedited delivery services, which require proximity to the customers, may explain these trends. The study results provide insights for planners and policy decision makers, and will be of interest to practitioners, public and private entities, and academia. Caltrans, MPOs, and affiliated institutions of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation will directly benefit from the results as they want to avoid equity issues brought by the fast development of e-commerce, and its potential impact on W&DC distribution.
    Keywords: Engineering, Warehouses, freight terminals, logistics, e-commerce, freight traffic, urban sprawl, social equity, disadvantaged communities
    Date: 2020–01–01
  45. By: Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke B.; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.
    Abstract: Children of Asian immigrants in most English-speaking destinations have better academic outcomes, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are under-studied. We employ panel time-use diaries by two cohorts of children observed over a decade to present new evidence that children of Asian immigrants begin spending more time than their peers on educational activities from school entry; and, that the ethnicity gap in the time allocated to educational activities increases over time. By specifying an augmented value-added model and invoking a quantile decomposition method, we find that the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants is attributable mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities and not to socio-demographics or parenting styles. Furthermore, our results show substantial heterogeneity in the contributions of initial cognitive abilities and time allocations by test subjects, test ages and points of the test score distribution.
    Keywords: Migration,Education,Test Score Gap,Time Use Diary,Quantile Regression,Second-generation Immigrants,Australia
    JEL: C21 I20 J13 J15 J22
    Date: 2020
  46. By: Adong, Annet; Kirui, Oliver Kiptoo; Achola, Jolly
    Abstract: We examine prosocial attitudes between refugees and host communities exposed to armed conflict and living in close proximity in Northern Uganda. By conducting trust and dictator games in the field, we test if there are in-group preferences or parochialism regarding trust, trustworthiness and altruism and whether parochial tendencies change with remoteness. We find that refugees show out-group preferences for reciprocating trust and altruism with increasing remoteness from district headquarters while members of the host communities show parochial preferences for trust although this changes with increasing remoteness. Refugees also do not perceive that their partners might expect them to discriminate along social identities of being refugee or host while hosts believe that their partners expect them to show parochial preferences. We conclude that refugees do not consider the social differentiation of “us refugees” and “them host” in their interactions as much as hosts do particularly in areas remote from urban areas which offer opportunities for increased interactions. The results are crucial to the policy arena in humanitarian contexts where concerns for the assistance of the vulnerable displaced people are high.
    Keywords: Institutional and Behavioral Economics
    Date: 2020–02–17
  47. By: Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: We analyze self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants and test our theory in the context of the European refugee crisis. Using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls, we provide the first large-scale evidence on reasons to emigrate, and the self-selection and sorting of refugees and irregular migrants. Refugees and female irregular migrants are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, while male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns are similar when analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, and sub-regional conflict intensity. Migrants respond to economic incentives and border policies.
    Keywords: international migration, refugees, irregular migrants, self-selection, human capital, gender differences in migration
    JEL: F22 J15 J16 J24 O15
    Date: 2020
  48. By: Jason Bram; James A. Orr; Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine)
    Abstract: Superstorm Sandy caused damage and disruption to a wide swath of the New York-New Jersey region. The high winds and storm surge resulted in significant physical damage to residential property, commercial real estate, and the power and transportation infrastructure. Everyday activities such as commuting, shopping, and traveling were impeded or in some cases prevented. As a number of communities across the region continue to cope with the damage and ongoing disruptions, there?s concern about if and when activity will return to normal.
    Keywords: employment; disasters; Hurricane Sandy
    JEL: R1
  49. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Deza, Monica (University of Texas at Dallas)
    Abstract: Domestic violence remains a serious public problem, especially in Hispanic communities, where one in three women are victims of domestic violence in their lifetimes. Yet, less than 50 percent of Hispanic women report the incidents, indicating lack of confidence in the police and fear they might be asked about their immigration status or that of relatives and friends as two main motives for not reporting. We examine the extent to which the adoption of sanctuary policies, which limit the cooperation of local law enforcement with federal immigration authorities, affect domestic homicide rates – a crime rarely unreported. We find that sanctuary policies lower domestic homicide rates among Hispanic women, but have no effect on white-non Hispanic women or men. The impact is particularly large in counties with higher immigration enforcement and in those with more female officers. On the other hand, sanctuary policies are less effective in counties withmandated arrest laws in place. These findings are suggestive of the important role of policies that increase community trust in the police in curtailing domestic violence, whether it is by promoting the early reporting of incidents, inhibiting potential offenders or increasing women's economic independence.
    Keywords: domestic violence, sanctuary policies, domestic homicides, crime policy
    JEL: D1 I1 J1 K14
    Date: 2019–12
  50. By: Vega-Redondo, Fernando (Universidad de Alicante); Pin, Paolo (Bocconi University); Ubfal, Diego (Bocconi University); Benedetti-Fasil, Cristiana (European University Institute); Brummitt, Charles (Harvard University); Rubera, Gaia (Bocconi University); Hovy, Dirk (Bocconi University); Fornaciari, Tommaso (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: Can large-scale peer interaction foster entrepreneurship and innovation? We conducted an RCT involving almost 5,000 entrepreneurs from 49 African countries. All were enrolled in an online business course, and the treatment involved random assignment to either face-to-face or virtual (Internet-mediated) interaction. We find positive treatment effects on both the submission of business plans and their quality, provided interaction displays some intermediate diversity. Network effects are also significant on both outcomes, although diversity plays a different role for each. This shows that effective peer interaction can be feasibly implemented quite broadly but must also be designed carefully, in view of the pursued objectives.
    Keywords: social networks, peer effects, entrepreneurship, innovation, semantic analysis
    JEL: C93 D04 D85 O12 O31 O35
    Date: 2019–12
  51. By: Isaac Baley; Ana Figueiredo; Robert Ulbricht
    Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of skill mismatch over the business cycle. We build a tractable directed search model, in which workers differ in skills along multiple dimensions and sort into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those dimensions. Skill mismatch arises due to information and labor market frictions. Estimated to the U.S., the model replicates salient business cyclic properties of mismatch. We show that job transitions in and out of bottom job rungs, combined with career mobility of workers, are important to account for the empirical behavior of mismatch. The predicted career dynamics provide a novel narrative for the scarring effect of unemployment. The model suggests significant welfare costs associated with mismatch due to learning frictions.
    Keywords: Business cycles, cleansing, learning about skills, multidimensional sorting, scarring effect of unemployment, search-and-matching, skill mismatch, sullying
    JEL: E24 E32 J24 J64
    Date: 2020–02
  52. By: Fisker Peter; Sohnesen Thomas; Malmgren-Hansen David
    Abstract: Using convolutional neural networks applied to satellite images covering a 25 km x 12 km rectangle on the northern outskirts of Greater Maputo, we detect and classify buildings from 2010 and 2018 in order to compare the development in quantity and quality of buildings from before and after construction of a major section of ring road.In addition, we analyse how the effects vary by distance to the road and conclude that the area has seen large overall growth in both quantity and quality of housing, but it is not possible to distinguish growth close to the road from general urban growth.Finally, the paper contributes methodologically to a growing strand of literature focused on combining machine-learning image recognition and the availability of high-resolution satellite images. We examine the extent to which it is possible to exploit these methods to analyse changes over time and thus provide an alternative (or complement) to traditional impact analyses.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation,infrastructure,remote sensing,Mozambique
    Date: 2019
  53. By: Simon Berrebi; Taylor Gibbs; Sanskruti Joshi; Kari E Watkins
    Abstract: In 2018, bus ridership attained its lowest level since 1973. If transit agencies hope to reverse this trend, they must understand how their service allocation policies affect ridership. This paper is among the first to model ridership trends on a hyper-local level over time. A Poisson fixed-effects model is developed to evaluate the ridership elasticity to frequency using passenger count data from Portland, Miami, Minneapolis/St-Paul, and Atlanta between 2012 and 2018. In every agency, ridership is found to be elastic to frequency when observing the variation between individual route-segments at one point in time. In other words, the most frequent routes are already the most productive. When observing the variation within each route-segment over time, however, ridership is inelastic; each additional vehicle-trip is expected to generate less ridership than the average bus already on the route. In three of the four agencies, the elasticity is a decreasing function of prior frequency, meaning that low-frequency routes are the most sensitive to frequency change. This paper can help transit agencies anticipate the marginal effect of shifting service throughout the network. As the quality and availability of passenger count data improve, this paper can serve as the methodological basis to explore the dynamics of bus ridership.
    Date: 2020–02
  54. By: Delaney, Judith (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Devereux, Paul J. (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: Using unique data on preference rankings for all high school students who apply for college in Ireland, we investigate whether, conditional on absolute achievement, within school-cohort rank in English and math affects choice of college major. We find that higher rank in math increases the likelihood of choosing STEM and decreases the likelihood of choosing Arts and Social Sciences. Similarly, a higher rank in English leads to an increase in the probability of choosing Arts and Social Sciences and decreases the probability of choosing STEM. The rank effects are substantial, being about one third as large as the effects of absolute performance in math and English. We identify subject choice in school as an important mediator – students who rank high in math are more likely to choose STEM subjects in school and this can partly explain their subsequent higher likelihood of choosing STEM for college. We also find that English and math rank have significant explanatory power for the gender gap in the choice of STEM as a college major – they can explain about 36% as much as absolute performance in English and math. Overall, the tendency for girls to be higher ranked in English and lower ranked in math within school-cohorts can explain about 6% of the STEM gender gap in mixed-sex schools and about 16% of the difference in the STEM gender gap between mixed-sex schools and same-sex schools. Notably, these effects occur even though within-school rank plays no role whatsoever in college admissions decisions.
    Keywords: high school rank, STEM, college major choice, gender gap, comparative advantage
    JEL: I2 J1
    Date: 2019–12
  55. By: Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine)
    Abstract: Policymakers are increasingly viewing colleges and universities as important engines of growth for their local areas. In addition to having direct economic impacts, these institutions help to raise the skills of an area?s workforce (its local ?human capital?), and they do this in two ways. First, by educating potential workers, they increase the supply of human capital in a region. Perhaps less obviously, these schools can also raise a region?s demand for human capital by helping local businesses create jobs for skilled workers. In this post, we draw on our recent academic research and Current Issues article to outline these pathways and how they might inform local economic development policy. (We also discuss our findings in a new video.)
    Keywords: human capital; local economic development; Regional economy; knowledge spillovers; higher education
    JEL: R1
  56. By: Jesús Peiró-Palomino (INTECO and Department of Economic Structure, Universitat de València, Spain); William Orlando Prieto-Bustos (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Católica de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: We analyze per capita GDP convergence among Colombian departments between 2000 and 2016 using the distribution dynamics approach. Compared with previous studies, we provide a more complete view by including some additional information such as the asymptotic half-life of convergence, mobility indices and the continuous version of the ergodic distributions. In addition, we also extend the analysis to evaluate whether patterns could differ if weighted by either the population living in each department or the size of their economies, together with the existence and magnitude of spatial spillovers. The unweighted, unconditional analysis corroborates and supplements previous findings, especially those indicating that convergence patterns differ strongly under either pre-2008 or post- 2008 trends. Both the weighted and space-conditioned analyses indicate that convergence could be much faster when these factors are introduced in the analysis. Implications are especially relevant when weighting by population, since results suggest that the number of people escaping from relative poverty would be much higher than the figure predicted by the unweighted analysis.
    Keywords: Colombia, convergence, departments, distribution dynamics, spatial spillovers, weights
    JEL: C16 O18 O47 R11
    Date: 2020
  57. By: Cem Özgüzel (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Spatial inequalities in Turkey are a source of considerable policy concern. In this paper, I estimate agglomeration effects for Turkish provinces to shed light on the origins of spatial inequality in productivity and provide evidence from a developing country context which literature needs. I use social security data, an administrative dataset recently made available at the NUTS-3 level, for 81 provinces of Turkey for the period 2008-2013 and carry out a twostep estimation. I use a variety of panel data techniques and historical instruments to deal with estimation concerns. I estimate an elasticity of labor productivity with respect to the density of 0.056-0.06, which is higher than in developed countries and around the levels observed in developing countries. Contrasting the evidence coming from developed countries, I find weak effects for sorting of workers across Turkish provinces based on observable characteristics.
    Date: 2019–08–20
  58. By: Kauhanen, Antti; Riukula, Krista; Metsäranta, Heikki
    Abstract: Abstract The labor market impacts of transport system, as well as other so-called wider economic benefits, are debated widely. The discussion revolves around the question whether the transport appraisal frameworks capture all pertinent economic benefits. In this brief, we discuss how changes in accessibility caused by changes in the transport system affect the labor market and how to incorporate these effects to the transport appraisal framework. International research shows that traditional cost-benefit analysis largely captures the labor market impacts of transport system changes. However, there may still exist some wider economic impacts, including labor market impacts, that should be incorporated to the appraisals. The appraisal of the labor market impacts of transport system should be developed to provide research-based evaluations of the magnitude and incidence of the labor market impacts. We propose a four-level framework to assess the impacts of transport infrastructure changes on the labor market. Comprehensive appraisal demands the development of a nationwide transportation model and empirical research using Finnish individual level panel data with detailed geographical information.
    Keywords: Transport system, Labour market, Wider economic impacts
    JEL: R42 H43 J68 H54
    Date: 2020–02–18
  59. By: Michele Cantarella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and European Central Bank)
    Abstract: Using daily data on forced migration from the IOM, I compare trends in flows and mortality across three major migration routes in the Mediterranean, analysing the effects of the introduction of rescue-deterrence policies in Italy. Controlling for exogenous shocks which affect push and pull factors in mobility, along with sea state conditions and route-day fixed effects, I find that the reduction in refugee migration flows in the Central Mediterranean has been modest, at best. At the same time, these policies have generated a permanent increase in daily mortality rates in the Central Mediterranean, having grown by more than 4 deaths per day. Finally, I investigate whether variations in mortality are sufficient to offset migration flows. Increases in mortality rates, however, are only accompanied by a short-term negative displacement effect, as migration attempts are delayed by increases in absolute mortality, rather than being prevented.
    Keywords: costs of migration, forced migration, EU refugee crisis, deterrence policies JEL Classification: F22, J15, J61, J68
    Date: 2019–10
  60. By: Si Ying Tan; Araz Taeihagh
    Abstract: Smart cities that make broad use of digital technologies have been touted as possible solutions for the population pressures faced by many cities in developing countries and may help meet the rising demand for services and infrastructure. Nevertheless, the high financial cost involved in infrastructure maintenance, the substantial size of the informal economies, and various governance challenges are curtailing government idealism regarding smart cities. This review examines the state of smart city development in developing countries, which includes understanding the conceptualisations, motivations, and unique drivers behind (and barriers to) smarty city development. A total of 56 studies were identified from a systematic literature review from an initial pool of 3928 social sciences literature identified from two academic databases. Data were analysed using thematic synthesis and thematic analysis. The review found that technology-enabled smart cities in developing countries can only be realised when concurrent socioeconomic, human, legal, and regulatory reforms are instituted. Governments need to step up their efforts to fulfil the basic infrastructure needs of citizens, raise more revenue, construct clear regulatory frameworks to mitigate the technological risks involved, develop human capital, ensure digital inclusivity, and promote environmental sustainability. A supportive ecosystem that encourages citizen participation, nurtures start-ups, and promotes public-private partnerships needs to be created to realise their smart city vision.
    Date: 2020–01
  61. By: Rains Emily; Krishna Anirudh
    Abstract: As developing countries rapidly urbanize, the number of people living in ‘slums’â۠neighbourhoods lacking property rights and basic servicesâ۠continues to increase. Whether slum residents will ultimately share in the benefits of the cities they help build or will remain trapped in poverty is not well understood.We review empirical evidence on the potential for social mobility in today’s urban slums in order to assess prospects for upward mobility in cities of the Global South. Finding evidence for limited levels of upward mobility and high levels of volatility, we discuss the substantial public sector interventions that accompanied urbanization in the Global North.We argue that urbanization will not automatically improve prospects for mobility for the urban poor. Instead, it will be critical to implement appropriately nuanced interventions to improve opportunities for the billions residing in today’s and tomorrow’s slums.
    Keywords: Urbanization,volatility,Slums,Social mobility,Informality
    Date: 2019
  62. By: Come Billard (University of Paris-Dauphine, France.)
    Abstract: We represent a social system as a network of agents and model the process of technology diffusion as a contagion propagating in such a network. By setting the necessary conditions for an agent to switch (ie. to adopt the technology), we address the question of how to maximize the contagion of a technology subject to a Moore’s law (eg. solar modules) in a network of agents. We focus the analysis on the effects of the network structure and technological learning on diffusion. To this end, we study three classes of networks, namely lattice, small-world and random networks. Our numerical results show that both the lattice and the small-world networks facilitate the contagion. These networks exhibit high levels of clustering, and additional contacts increase the probability of contagion through social reinforcement. Conversely, networks exhibiting short path length and a low level of clustering (ie. random networks) guarantee an equivalent speed of diffusion with smaller ranges (ie. variance) in terms of aggregate adoption. Whatever the structure, learning effects are critical for contagion to spread in agents networks.
    Keywords: networks, complex contagion, technology, Moore’s law, cascades
    Date: 2020–01
  63. By: Arraiz,Irani; Bruhn,Miriam; Roth,Benjamin N.; Ruiz Ortega,Claudia; Stucchi,Rodolfo Mario
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence that commercial lenders in Peru free ride off their peers'screening efforts. Leveraging a discontinuity in the loan approval process of a large bank, the study finds that competing lenders responded to additional loan approvals by issuing approvals of their own. Competing lenders captured almost three-quarters of the new loans to previously financially excluded borrowers, greatly diminishing the profits accruing to the initiating bank. Lenders may therefore underinvest in screening new borrowers and expanding financial inclusion, as their competitors reap some of the benefit. The results highlight that information spillovers between lenders may operate outside credit registries.
    Date: 2019–12–03
  64. By: Joanna Piechucka
    Abstract: We study the impact of different regulatory designs on the cost efficiency of operators providing a public service, exploiting data from the French transport industry. The distinctive feature of the study is that it considers regulatory regimes as endogenously determined choices, explained by economic, political, and institutional variables. Our approach leans on a positive analysis to study the determinants of regulatory contract choices, which, in turn, affect the costs of operating urban public transport. Our results show that given similar network characteristics, networks operated under fixed-price contracts exert lower costs than those regulated under cost-plus contracts. This finding is in line with the theoretical prediction of new regulatory economics that fixed-price contracts provide more incentives for efficiency. Importantly, ignoring the endogeneity of contractual choices would lead to significantly underestimating the impact of contract type on cost efficiency. Our findings provide useful policy implications suggesting that the move toward more high-powered incentive schemes is indeed associated with significant cost efficiencies. Moreover, they highlights the importance of accounting for the endogeneity of regulatory contract choices.
    Keywords: Cost-efficiency; Endogenous contract choices; Transport industry
    JEL: L51 L92
    Date: 2020
  65. By: Sanfilippo Marco; Fiorini Matteo
    Abstract: We look at how improving roads can affect jobs and structural transformation.We use a novel geocoded dataset covering the universe of Ethiopian roads and match this information with individual data to identify the effects of improvements in road infrastructure on the creation, quality, and sectoral distribution of jobs over the period 1994–2013.We find that, at the district level, higher market potential due to better roads contributes to the creation of new jobs, reduces the share of agricultural workers, and increases that of workers in the services sector but not in manufacturing. The latter experiences a relative increase in the share of informal workers.Finally, investigating the underlying mechanisms, we show that patterns of internal migration and changes in economic opportunities can help to rationalize our findings.
    Keywords: infrastructure,Road transportation,Roads,Structural transformation,Ethiopia,Transportation
    Date: 2019
  66. By: Meta Brown; Donghoon Lee; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Zachary Bleemer (University of California Berkeley)
    Abstract: Young Americans? living arrangements have changed strikingly over the past fifteen years, with recent cohorts entering the housing market at much lower rates and lingering much longer in their parents? households. The New York Times Magazine reported this past summer on the surge in college-educated young people who ?boomerang? back to living with their parents after graduation. Joining that trend are the many other members of this cohort who have never left home, whether or not they attend college. Why might young people increasingly reside with their parents? They may be unable to find employment, they may be saving their income to pay down increasing levels of student debt, or they may be unable to afford the rent for an apartment in the face of lower income or higher housing prices.
    Keywords: Household formation; youth unemployment; student loans
    JEL: D1 R3
  67. By: Mª Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Accounting and Finance, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Isabel Narbón-Perpiñá (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Jesús Peiró-Palomino (INTECO and Department of Economic Structure, Universitat de València, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between quality of government and economic growth at the municipal level in 1,820 Spanish municipalities during the period 2008–2015. At this level of dis- aggregation, the literature is virtually non-existent due to severe data constraints. To address this limitation, we proxy institutional quality with a measure of local government efficiency, which provides an accurate indicator of how good local authorities are at managing their budgets. This variable is expected to be highly correlated with other more traditional quality of government indicators such as corruption. After computing our measure, we then use it in a growth regression framework. We find a preponderant positive effect for local government quality on income per capita growth, which is robust to a wide variety of scenarios. Our findings also suggest that increases in local government quality are particularly rewarding for the poorest municipalities and in crisis times.
    Keywords: economic growth; efficiency; quality of government; municipalities
    JEL: D04 E02 H7 H11 O43
    Date: 2020
  68. By: Berkes,Jan Lukas; Bouguen,Adrien; Filmer,Deon P.; Fukao,Tsuyoshi
    Abstract: This paper experimentally examines the impacts of a large-scale government program that increased the supply and quality of community preschools in rural Cambodia. The construction of new preschool facilities was paired with two demand-side interventions designed to stimulate additional enrollment into preschools. The newly constructed preschools caused an increase in enrollment rates but the demand-side interventions did not. One year after the program started, the paper finds small and significant impacts on cognitive (0.04 standard deviations) and socio-emotional development (0.09 standard deviations). The analysis shows that the cognitive impacts are driven by children from the wealthiest quartile, while the program had limited impacts on children from the poorest families. The effects on cognitive development increased after two years for the wealthiest (the cognitive gap widened) while the effects on socio-emotional development faded out across the board. Using detailed classroom surveys and in-class observations, the paper shows that the program had large impacts on the quality of preschool infrastructure and materials but only limited impacts the quality of educational processes -- the results therefore suggest that further improvement of those processes might be needed to foster the development of disadvantaged children.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Educational Institutions&Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers,Early Childhood Development,Nutrition,Reproductive Health,Early Child and Children',Early Child and Children's Health,Children and Youth,Social Protections&Assistance
    Date: 2019–12–02
  69. By: Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine); Richard Deitz
    Abstract: Economic inequality in the United States is much more pronounced in some parts of the country than others. In this post, we examine the geography of wage inequality, drawing on our recent Economic Policy Review article. We find that the most unequal places tend to be large urban areas with strong economies where wage growth has been particularly strong for those at the top of the wage distribution. The least unequal places, on the other hand, tend to have relatively sluggish economies that deliver slower wage growth for high, middle, and lower wage earners alike. Many of the least unequal places are concentrated in the Rust Belt. These differences in the degree of wage inequality are tied to powerful economic forces arising from technological change and globalization, which have pushed up wages strongly for high-skilled workers in locations that have become the most unequal. Yet those same forces have kept wage growth compressed within a fairly narrow range for workers in places that are the least unequal.
    Keywords: Inequality; wages; regional
    JEL: R1
  70. By: Mogens Fosgerau (University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: This paper reiterates the basic principles and rationale for valuing travel time savings. It explains the type of impacts that the valuation of travel time savings intends to capture and discusses whether and how those fundamental principles continue to hold with automation and increased possibility of productive time use while travelling. The paper also discusses implications for traffic management and urban form that follow from increased in-vehicle productivity.
    Date: 2019–10–09
  71. By: Anastasia Shesterinina (Department of Politics, University of Sheffield. Elmfield Building, Northumberland Road, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK)
    Abstract: Studies of cohesion focus on pre-war networks of insurgency organizers and war-time socialization processes, but do not account for cohesion in civil wars involving spontaneous mobilization, where leaders lack sufficient integration in communities for mobilization and socialization of fighters. This paper shifts attention from insurgency organizers to fighters and disaggregates the concept into horizontal cohesion, or the risks taken by fighters for one another, and vertical cohesion linking fighters to local and central commanders, or the risks taken as part of the unit. While quotidian and local ties bond fighters to one another and local commanders in the small group context, units might fight to protect their own members rather than contribute to the broader struggle. This commitment to the insurgency depends on how fighters understand the benefits of victory and costs of loss in the war. The argument is supported by fieldwork-based analysis of the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992-1993 and has implications for cases of spontaneous mobilization characterizing the post-Soviet space and, more recently, the Arab Uprisings. It suggests that most mobilization takes place in a social setting, but insurgent organizations are not the only setting for collective decisions to join the fighting and develop cohesion among fighter groups.
    Keywords: Civil war; cohesion; mobilization; social ties JEL Classification:
    Date: 2019–08
  72. By: Fournier, Gaëtan; Van Der Straeten, Karine; Weibull, Jörgen W.
    Abstract: This paper studies a spatial competition game between two firms that sell a homogeneous good at some pre-determined fixed price. A population of consumers is spread out over the real line, and the two firms simultaneously choose location in this same space. When buying from one of the firms, consumers incur the fixed price plus some transportation costs, which are increasing with their distance to the firm. Under the assumption that each consumer is ready to buy one unit of the good whatever the locations of the firms, firms converge to the median location: there is minimal differentiation. In this article, we relax this assumption and assume that there is an upper limit to the distance a consumer is ready to cover to buy the good. We show that the game always has at least one Nash equilibrium in pure strategy. Under this more general assumption, the "minimal differentiation" principle no longer holds in general. At equilibrium, firms choose "minimal", "intermediate" or "full" differentiation, depending on this critical distance a consumer is ready to cover and on the shape of the distribution of consumers' locations.
    Keywords: Spatial competition games; horizontal differentiation; willingness to pay
    Date: 2020–02
  73. By: Alessandra Venturini; Enrico Bertacchini; Roberto Zotti
    Abstract: The paper aims to explore the drivers of immigrants’ participation to cultural and leisure activities in host countries. First, we discuss how the main analytical approaches on cultural participation can be extended to incorporate factors specific to migrants’ characteristics and behaviour, namely dimensions of proximity to the native population’s culture and the level of integration in the host society. Secondly, we investigate migrants’ propensity for consumption of cultural and leisure activities using data of a special national survey on Income and Living conditions (2011-2012) on foreign households in Italy. Italy represents an interesting case because it is a recent immigration country, making the analysis particularly suitable for studying the behaviour of first-generation immigrants. Our findings suggest that language proficiency, duration of stay and intention to remain in the host country significantly increase the probability to access various types of leisure and cultural activities. Interestingly, after controlling for standard individual predictors, several dimensions of an immigrant’s cultural background and proximity with the culture of the host society still significantly explain variation in cultural participation rates, confirming that cultural differences play a role in migrants’ cultural consumption choice.
    Keywords: cultural participation, migrants, cultural proximity
    JEL: Z11 J15 J61
    Date: 2020–02–12
  74. By: Lamia Mokaddem (University of Tunis El Manar); Imtinen ben Saied (University of Tunis El Manar)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of regional development which is based on a method developed by the World Bank called the Human Opportunity Index, which quantifies the total contribution of individual socioeconomic and demographic circumstances to inequality of opportunity in accessing basic services in 6 Tunisian regions and for three years 2005, 2010 and 2015. s. We use the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to determine the weighting factors of the. Regional composite Human Opportunity Index (RCHOI). This regional development index makes it possible to compare the disparities in the level of development between regions, and the results show that Tunisia experienced during two periods considerable disparities between the different regions. The interior region of the country, particularly the central-western region, and north-west, lag behind other regions, and thus occupy the latest development rankings compared to coastal areas.
    Date: 2019–12–20
  75. By: Andersson, David (Uppsala University); Berger, Thor (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Prawitz, Erik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: We exploit exogenous variation arising from the historical rollout of the Swedish railroad network across municipalities to identify the impacts of lowered interaction costs on innovative activity. A network connection led to a surge in local innovation due to an increased entry, productivity, and specialization of independent inventors. As the railroad network expanded, it further led to the emergence of a national market for ideas: inventors in connected areas began to develop ideas with applications outside the local economy, which were subsequently sold to firms along the network. Our findings suggest that the reduced interaction cost between firms, intermediaries, and inventors was a key driver of the historical emergence of a market for ideas.
    Keywords: Technological Change; Infrastructure; Innovation
    JEL: N70 O30 O33
    Date: 2020–02–18
  76. By: Orozco, Manuel; Jewers, Mariellen
    Abstract: In an increasingly globalized world community, rural international migration is often characterized by engagements or links that migrants establish with their home countries, home towns and relatives in their country of origin through transnational economic and social activities. This background paper analyses how migrants positively contribute to the sustainable economic development of rural youth in their countries of origin. Specifically, this paper details migrants’ contribution to youth rural development through transnational economic engagement, which positively impacts financial inclusion, creation of employment opportunities and the promotion of entrepreneurship. Transnational engagement activities include money transfers (family remittances), philanthropy, entrepreneurship, capital investment, homeland goods consumption and knowledge transfer. We find that youth are doubly disadvantaged relative to adults in rural areas and relative to their urban counterparts, making remittances and other forms of engagement particularly important in helping this especially vulnerable group. Transnational engagement that occurs in rural areas and targets issues such as education or nutrition can disproportionately benefit youth. Other transnational engagement, such as knowledge transfer or partnership, establishes youth as agents of their own development and economic well-being. Though the activities differ, underlying all forms of transnational engagement is a reinforcement of social and cultural identities and connection with countries of origin for both migrants and descendants of migrants.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics
    Date: 2019
  77. By: Jeffrey Grogger; Andreas Steinmayr; Joachim Winter
    Abstract: Previous work has documented that speaking one’s native language with an accent distinct from the mainstream is associated with lower wages. In this study, we seek to estimate the causal effect of speaking with a distinctive regional accent, disentangling the effect of the accent from that of omitted variables. We collected data on workers’ speech in Germany, a country with wide variation in regional dialects. We use a variety of strategies in estimation, including an instrumental variables strategy in which the instruments are based on research findings from the linguistics of accent acquisition. All of our estimators show that speaking with a distinctive regional accent reduces wages by an amount that is comparable to the gender wage gap. We also find that workers with distinctive regional accents tend to sort away from occupations that demand high levels of face-to-face contact, consistent with various occupational sorting models.
    JEL: J24 J71
    Date: 2020–01
  78. By: Bertacchini, Enrico; Venturini, Alessandra (University of Turin); Zotti, Roberto (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The paper aims to explore the drivers of immigrants' participation to cultural and leisure activities in host countries. First, we discuss how the main analytical approaches on cultural participation can be extended to incorporate factors specific to migrants' characteristics and behaviour, namely dimensions of proximity to the native population's culture and the level of integration in the host society. Secondly, we investigate migrants' propensity for consumption of cultural and leisure activities using data of a special national survey on Income and Living conditions (2011-2012) on foreign households in Italy. Italy represents an interesting case because it is a recent immigration country, making the analysis particularly suitable for studying the behaviour of first-generation immigrants. Our findings suggest that language proficiency, duration of stay and intention to remain in the host country significantly increase the probability to access various types of leisure and cultural activities. Interestingly, after controlling for standard individual predictors, several dimensions of an immigrant's cultural background and proximity with the culture of the host society still significantly explain variation in cultural participation rates, confirming that cultural differences play a role in migrants' cultural consumption choice.
    Keywords: cultural participation, migrants, cultural proximity, Italy
    JEL: Z11 J15 J61
    Date: 2019–12
  79. By: Gouveia, Filipe Rodrigues (Department of Economics, Lund University); Nilsson, Therese (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Berggren, Niclas (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: We measure and analyze discriminatory behavior against same-sex couples trying to rent an apartment in Portugal. This is the first correspondence field experiment investigating discrimination against this minority group in Portugal, adding to a literature using this method to ascertain discriminatory behavior in the housing market. In our experiment, four type of applicants varying in gender (male and female) and modality (same and opposite sex) reply to Internet ads to express interest in renting an apartment in the metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon. All applicant couples are presented as married, stable and professional. The main finding is that male same-sex couples face significant discrimination: The probability of getting a positive reply is 7–8 percentage points, or 26 percent, lower for them compared to opposite-sex couples. The effect is even more negative in parishes where the population is older, and discrimination increases in magnitude over the rental value and the square meter price of apartments. However, and perhaps surprisingly, the risk of discrimination decreases with religiosity (up to a point) and the distance to the metropolitan center (up to a point). The results for female same-sex couples also show a sizable negative effect, with a 3 percentage-point, or 10 percent, lower probability of a positive response compared to opposite-sex couples, even though this difference is less precisely estimated. The present study extends the literature to a southern European setting and validates previous research documenting worse treatment of same-sex couples in the housing market. Interestingly, in spite of less positive attitudes to same-sex couples among the Portuguese public, the level of discrimination is comparable to that found in Sweden and lower than on the Irish short-term rental market. This arguably illustrates that attitudes and discriminatory behavior need not be closely aligned.
    Keywords: Same-sex couples; Discrimination; Portugal; Field experiment; LGBT; Housing
    JEL: C93 D91 J15 R30
    Date: 2020–02–14
  80. By: Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine)
    Abstract: Although the unemployment rate of workers with a college degree has remained well below average since the Great Recession, there is growing concern that college graduates are increasingly underemployed?that is, working in a job that does not require a college degree or the skills acquired through their chosen field of study. Our recent New York Fed staff report indicates that one important factor affecting the ability of workers to find jobs that match their skills is where they look for a job. In particular, we show that looking for a job in big cities, which have larger and thicker local labor markets (that is, bigger markets with many buyers and sellers), can give workers a better chance to find a job that fits their skills.
    Keywords: agglomeration; underemployment; labor market matching
    JEL: Q1 J00 R1
  81. By: Poland, Michelle (University of Otago); Sin, Isabelle (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano)
    Abstract: Research consistently finds more workplace injuries occur on Mondays than on other weekdays. One hypothesis is that workers fraudulently claim that off-the-job weekend sprains and strains occurred at work on the Monday in order to receive workers' compensation. We test this using data from New Zealand, where compensation is virtually identical whether or not an injury occurs at work. We still find that work claims, especially sprains and strains, occur disproportionately on Mondays, although less than in other jurisdictions. This suggests fraudulent claims in other countries are just one part of the story. Furthermore, we find work claims remain high on Tuesdays, and that workers' sprains and strains that occur off-the-job also disproportionately fall on Mondays. Sprains and strains treated at hospitals, which are not closed over the weekend, are also elevated on Mondays. However, Monday lost-time injuries are less severe than injuries on other days. Our findings are consistent with a physiological mechanism contributing to elevated Monday injury claims in New Zealand, but do not suggest doctors' offices being closed over the weekend, ergonomic explanations, or work being riskier on Mondays play important roles.
    Keywords: monday effect, workers compensation, accidents, incentives
    JEL: I18 I13 J38
    Date: 2019–12
  82. By: Gabriele Cappelli (University of Siena); Michelangelo Vesta (University of Siena)
    Abstract: This paper explores the evolution of the human capital gender gap in Liberal Italy (1871 – 1921). First, we show that Italy lagged some 50 years behind more advanced countries like France, Prussia and the UK, and that the regional divide in gendered literacy was unparalleled in the rest of Europe. Next, we test whether the shift to primary-school centralization in 1911 (the Daneo-Credaro Reform) brought about a decisive improvement in female literacy. We rely on a brand-new, cross-section micro (municipal) dataset of literacy rates in 1911 and 1921, as well as their potential determinants around 1911. Such data, combined with Propensity Score Matching to improve identification, shows that primary-school centralization increased the average annual growth of female literacy by 0.78 percentage points. Thus, even though the Reform did not aim at girls specifically, it brought about the unintended consequences of more rapid human capital accumulation for women and – ceteris paribus – a reduced educational gender gap. We briefly discuss why this “Silent Revolution” likely had important implications for Italy’s economic history.
    Keywords: Gender, primary schooling, Liberal Age, Italy
    JEL: I25 J16 N3
    Date: 2020–02
  83. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Wang, Chunbei (University of Oklahoma)
    Abstract: This paper identifies intermarriage (between non-citizens and citizens) as an important response mechanism to intensified immigration enforcement, particularly among Mexican non-citizens. Exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the implementation of interior immigration enforcement from 2005 to 2017, we find that a one standard deviation increase in enforcement raises Mexican non-citizens' likelihood of marrying a U.S. citizen by 3 to 6 percent. Our results show that this effect is driven by a change in spousal preference. Both police-based and employment-based enforcement contribute to this impact. The analysis adds to a growing literature examining how immigrants respond to tightened enforcement and, importantly, sheds light on the recent growth of intermarriage among Mexican immigrants.
    Keywords: immigration enforcement, undocumented immigrants, family structure, intermarriage, United States
    JEL: J12 J15 K37
    Date: 2019–12
  84. By: Monira Essa Aloud; Sara Al-Rashood; Ina Ganguli; Basit Zafar
    Abstract: How important are social constraints and information gaps in explaining the low rates of female labor force participation (FLFP) in conservative societies that are undergoing social change? To answer this question, we conducted a field experiment embedded in a survey of female university students at a large public university in Saudi Arabia. We randomly provided one subset of individuals with information on the labor market and aspirations of their female peers (T1), while another subset was provided with this information along with a prime that made the role of parents and family more salient (T2). We find that expectations of working among those in the Control group are quite high, yet students underestimate the expected labor force attachment of their female peers. We show that information matters: relative to the Control group, expectations about own labor force participation are significantly higher in the T1 group. We find little evidence that dissemination of information is counteracted by local gender norms: impacts for the T2 group are significant and often larger than those for T1 group. However, T2 leads to higher expectations of working in Education - a sector that is socially more acceptable for women.
    JEL: D80 D83 J10 J20 Z10
    Date: 2020–01
  85. By: Vikesh Amin (Central Michigan University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Jason M. Fletcher (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Carlos A. Flores (California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (Syracuse University); Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We estimate associations between a polygenic score (PGS) for depressive symptoms, schooling attainment and genetic-environmental (GxE) associations with depressive symptoms and depression for 29 years old in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and 53 years old in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS). We find some suggestive evidence that the association of the PGS with mental health is lower for more-schooled older individuals in the WLS, but no evidence in Add Health. Quantile regression estimates also show that in the WLS the GxE associations are statistically significant only in the upper parts of the conditional depressive symptoms score distribution. We assess the robustness of the OLS results to possible omitted variable bias by estimating sibling fixed-effect regressions. The sibling fixed-effect results must be qualified, in part due to low statistical power. However, they show that college education is associated with fewer depressive symptoms in both datasets.
    Keywords: Schooling; Mental Health; Genetics; Gene-Environment Interactions
    JEL: I21 I10
    Date: 2020–02–05
  86. By: Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi; Gustavo S. Cortes; Marc D. Weidenmier
    Abstract: The Great Depression provides a unique setting to test the impact of monetary policies on economic activity in a monetary union within the same country during a severe crisis. Until the mid-1930s, the 12 Federal Reserve banks had the ability to set their own discount rates and conduct independent monetary policy. Using a structural VAR with sign restrictions and new monthly data for each Federal Reserve district between 1923-33, we extract a national monetary policy factor from the 12 discount rates of the Federal Reserve banks. We then identify the region-specific component for each Fed district by subtracting the common factor component of monetary policy from the discount rate of each Federal Reserve bank. Our findings suggest that there was significant variation in regional monetary policy and that the district reserve banks played a key role in the economic contraction.
    JEL: E52 E58 N1 N12
    Date: 2020–01
  87. By: Emma Gorman (University of Westminster & IZA, Bonn); Colm Harmon (University of Edinburgh); Silvia Mendolia (University of Edinburgh & IZA, Bonn); Anita Staneva (Griffith University); Ian Walker (Lancaster University Management School & IZA, Bonn)
    Abstract: We analyse the long-term effects of experiencing bullying victimisation in junior high school, using rich data on a large cohort of English adolescents. The data contain self-reports of five types of bullying and their frequency, for three waves, when the pupils were aged 13 to 16 years. We assess the effects of bullying victimisation on short- and long-term outcomes, including educational achievements, earnings, and mental ill-health at age 25 years using a variety of estimation strategies -- least squares, matching, and inverse probability weighting. We also consider attenuation associated with relying on self-reports. The detailed longitudinal data, linked to administrative data, allows us to control for many of the determinants of child outcomes that have been explored in previous literature, together with comprehensive sensitivity analyses, to assess the potential role of unobserved variables. The pattern of results strongly suggests that there are quantitatively important long run effects on victims -- stronger than correlation analysis would otherwise suggest. In particular, we find that both type of bullying and its intensity matters for long run outcomes such as obtaining a degree, income, and mental health.
    Keywords: bullying, education outcomes, long term outcomes
    JEL: I24 I26 J24
    Date: 2020–02

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