nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2020‒02‒10
forty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Policies for a more efficient and inclusive housing market in Luxembourg By Jan Stráský
  2. Road Rationing Policies and Housing Markets By Rhiannon Jerch; Panle Jia Barwick; Shanjun Li; Jing Wu
  3. Residential housing segregation and urban tree canopy in 37 US Cities By Locke, Dexter; Hall, Billy; Grove, J Morgan; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Ogden, Laura A.; Aoki, Carissa; Boone, Christopher G.; O’Neil-Dunne, Jarlath PM
  4. Housing Booms and the U.S. Productivity Puzzle By Jose Carreno
  5. Voting on Urban Land Development By Matthias Wrede
  6. Does Highway Accessibility Influence Local Tax Factors? Evidence from German Municipalities By Luisa Dörr; Stefanie Gäbler
  7. The network paradigm as a modeling tool in regional economy: the case of interregional commuting in Greece By Dimitrios Tsiotas; Labros Sdrolias; Dimitrios Belias
  8. Segregation with Social Linkages: Evaluating Schelling's Model with Networked Individuals By Roy Cerqueti; Luca De Benedictis; Valerio Leone Sciabolazza
  9. Search and Matching in Rental Housing Market By Mei Dong; Toshiaki Shoji; Yuki Teranishi
  10. Regional airports in Greece, their characteristics and their importance for the local economic development By Serafeim Polyzos; Dimitrios Tsiotas
  11. It’s the way people move! Labour migration as an adjustment device in Russia By Pastore, Francesco; Semerikova, Elena
  12. Peer Effects in Networks: A Survey By Yann Bramoullé; Habiba Djebbari; Bernard Fortin
  13. How New Airport Infrastructure Promotes Tourism: Evidence from a Synthetic Control Approach in German Regions By Luisa Dörr; Florian Dorn; Stefanie Gäbler; Niklas Potrafke
  14. A new dataset of distance and time related transport costs for EU regions By Damiaan Persyn; Jorge Diaz-Lanchas; Javier Barbero; Andrea Conte; Simone Salotti
  15. Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City By Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Veronica
  16. Rental Housing Spot Markets: How Online Information Exchanges Can Supplement Transacted-Rents Data By Boeing, Geoff; Wegmann, Jake; Jiao, Junfeng
  17. Urban Street Network Analysis in a Computational Notebook By Boeing, Geoff
  18. Building Inter-Ethnic Cohesion in Schools: An Intervention on Perspective-Taking By Sule Alan; Ceren Baysan; Mert Gumren; Elif Kubilay
  19. An Infrastructure Index for Remote Indigenous Communities By Nicole Johnston; Andrew Sharpe
  20. Planning transport for social inclusion: An accessibility-activity participation approach By Allen, Jeff; Farber, Steven
  21. Teachers’ well-being: A framework for data collection and analysis By Carine Viac; Pablo Fraser
  22. Credit Supply and the Housing Boom By Alejandro Justiniano; Giorgio E. Primiceri; Andrea Tambalotti
  23. Tax Compliance in the RentalHousing Market: Evidence from aField Experiment By Essi Eerola; Tuomas Kosonen; Kaisa Kotakorpi; Teemu Lyytikäinen
  24. The Chile Experiment Comparing Chile’s Free School Choice Model with Quasi-Monopoly Educational Systems in Latin America on Academic Outcomes and School Segregation By Mariano Narodowski
  25. Short-term health effects of public transport disruptions: air pollution and viral spread channels By A. GODZINSKI; M. SUAREZ CASTILLO
  26. Refugees and social capital: Evidence from Northern Lebanon By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  27. Salience and Accountability: School Infrastructureand Last-Minute Electoral Punishment By Nicolas Ajzenman; Ruben Durante
  28. Is the Remedy Worse Than the Disease? The Impact of Teacher Remediation on Teacher and Student Performance in Chile By María Lombardi
  29. A theory of heterogeneous city growth By Christian Ghiglino; Kazuo Nishimura; Alain Venditti
  30. Does Sure Start spending improve school readiness? An ecological longitudinal study. By Senior, Steven
  31. L’union fait la force? Evidence for wage discrimination in firms with high diversity By Elena Grinza; Stephan Kampelmann; François Rycx
  32. Comparing School Choice And College Admission Mechanisms By Their Immunity To Strategic Admissions By Somouaoga Bonkoungou; Alexander Nesterov
  33. Understanding the Geographic Coding in the 1970 Decennial Census Microdata By Todd Gardner
  34. Targeting in social networks with anonymized information By Francis Bloch; Shaden Shabayek
  35. State Preemption of Local Laws: Origins and Modern Trends By Goodman, Christopher B; Hatch, Megan E.; McDonald, Bruce D. III
  36. Reimagining the Future of Transportation with Personal Flight: Preparing and Planning for Urban Air Mobility By Cohen, Adam; Guan, Justin; Beamer, Matthew; Dittoe, Ryan; Mokhtarimousavi, Seyedmirsajad
  37. Peer Effects in Academic Research: Senders and Receivers By Clément Bosquet; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Emeric Henry; Thierry Mayer
  38. Mapping the risk terrain for crime using machine learning By Wheeler, Andrew Palmer; Steenbeek, Wouter
  39. Conclusion: Perspectives on Urban Theories By Denise Pumain; Juste Raimbault
  41. Was the Expansion of Housing Credit in Japan Good or Bad? By Charles Yuji Horioka; Yoko Niimi
  42. Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence By Constant, Amelie F.

  1. By: Jan Stráský
    Abstract: Housing prices have been growing strongly in Luxembourg, stoked by population growth, a high rate of household formation and limited use of land available for construction. Increases in price-to-income ratio mainly reflect high valuations of residential real estate, which rise faster than incomes, leading to increasing financial risks related to household indebtedness. Housing affordability has been deteriorating in particular for low-income households who do not profit from highly subsidised social housing. A mix of policies addressing supply-side restrictions, such as land hoarding and resistance to densification, together with policies to increase housing tenure neutrality and better targeted fiscal support will be needed to make the housing market more efficient and inclusive. Measures increasing the opportunity costs of unused land in urbanised areas and unoccupied dwellings could be combined with further reform of land-use planning, including measures involving municipalities in selectively increasing residential density in areas well-connected to the transport network. Housing tenure neutrality could be supported by removing or at least reducing mortgage interest deductibility and other fiscal instruments supporting homeownership and by developing the recurrent taxation of immovable property into a more important fiscal resource based on up-to-date real estate valuations. The supply of social rental housing should be stepped up and access to it made conditional on recurrent means testing ensuring better targeting to those most in need. Private rental sector could be expanded by relaxing the rules on renting parts of housing units and conversion of existing dwellings into rental housing.This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg. uxembourg-economic-snapshot/
    Keywords: housing affordability, housing construction, housing tenure neutrality, land-use planning, Luxembourg, municipalities
    JEL: H11 H24 R21 R31
    Date: 2020–02–03
  2. By: Rhiannon Jerch (Department of Economics, Temple University); Panle Jia Barwick (Department of Economics, Cornell University); Shanjun Li (Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University); Jing Wu (Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University)
    Abstract: Canonical urban models postulate transportation cost as a key element in determining urban spatial structure. This paper examines how road rationing policies impact the spatial distribution of households using rich micro data on housing transactions and resident demographics in Beijing. We find that Beijing's road rationing policy significantly increased the demand for housing near subway stations as well as CBD. The premium for proximity is stable in the periods prior to the driving restriction, but shifts significantly in the aftermath of the policy. The composition of households living close to subway stations and Beijing's CBD shifts toward wealthier households, consistent with theoretical predictions of the monocentric city model with income-stratified transit modes. Our findings suggest that city-wide road rationing policies can have the unintended consequence of limiting access to public transit for lower income individuals.
    Keywords: road rationing, housing markets, urban structure
    JEL: R21 R41
    Date: 2020–01
  3. By: Locke, Dexter; Hall, Billy; Grove, J Morgan; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Ogden, Laura A.; Aoki, Carissa; Boone, Christopher G.; O’Neil-Dunne, Jarlath PM
    Abstract: Redlining was a racially discriminatory housing policy established by the federal Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) during the 1930s. For decades, redlining limited access to homeownership and wealth creation among racial minorities, contributing to a host of adverse social outcomes, including high unemployment, poverty, and residential vacancy, that persist today. While the multigenerational socioeconomic impacts of redlining are increasingly understood, the impacts on urban environments and ecosystems remains unclear. To begin to address this gap, we investigated how the HOLC policy administered 80 years ago may relate to present-day tree canopy at the neighborhood level. Urban trees provide many ecosystem services, mitigate the urban heat island effect, and may improve quality of life in cities. In our prior research in Baltimore, MD, we discovered that redlining policy influenced the location and allocation of trees and parks. Our analysis of 37 metropolitan areas here shows that areas formerly graded D, which were mostly inhabited by racial and ethnic minorities, have on average ~23% tree canopy cover today. Areas formerly graded A, characterized by U.S.-born white populations living in newer housing stock, had nearly twice as much tree canopy (~43%). Results are consistent across small and large metropolitan regions. The ranking system used by Home Owners’ Loan Corporation to assess loan risk in the 1930s parallels the rank order of average percent tree canopy cover today.
    Date: 2020–01–06
  4. By: Jose Carreno
    Abstract: The United States has been experiencing a slowdown in productivity growth for more than a decade. I exploit geographic variation across U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) to investigate the link between the 2006-2012 decline in house prices (the housing bust) and the productivity slowdown. Instrumental variable estimates support a causal relationship between the housing bust and the productivity slowdown. The results imply that one standard deviation decline in house prices translates into an increment of the productivity gap -- i.e. how much an MSA would have to grow to catch up with the trend -- by 6.9p.p., where the average gap is 14.51%. Using a newly-constructed capital expenditures measure at the MSA level, I find that the long investment slump that came out of the Great Recession explains an important part of this effect. Next, I document that the housing bust led to the investment slump and, ultimately, the productivity slowdown, mostly through the collapse in consumption expenditures that followed the bust. Lastly, I construct a quantitative general equilibrium model that rationalizes these empirical findings, and find that the housing bust is behind roughly 50 percent of the productivity slowdown.
    Date: 2020–01
  5. By: Matthias Wrede
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze several local referendums on land development and land-use regulation in the City of Erlangen (Germany) in the period between 2011 and 2018. To identify the positive influence of the travel distance on approval for the development of land, we employ a two-way fixed-effects model and use spatial instruments. Also, we analyze the heterogeneity of city dwellers’ preferences for the development of residential and commercial areas. In particular, we examine the homeownership and expenditure-crowding-out hypotheses.
    Keywords: land development, referendum, local public goods, distance decay, homeownership, expenditure-crowding out
    JEL: D72 R52 R58
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Luisa Dörr; Stefanie Gäbler
    Abstract: We examine how highway accessibility influences tax policy. We exploit the stagewise expansion of the “Baltic Sea highway” in the East German state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as the largest contiguous highway construction project in Germany since 1945. For non-agglomeration municipalities that lie on a convenient route between two larger cities the access and opening year are close to random. Results from difference-in-differences estimations and an event study approach show that highway access influences local tax setting in municipalities within 5 to 10 km road distance. Improved accessibility increases property tax factors persistently by roughly 6 percentage points. Our effects are driven by peripheral municipalities, while we do not find an influence on core municipalities. Additionally, improved accessibility gives rise to a shift of population and economic activity from the periphery to the core.
    Keywords: Highway, infrastructure, accessibility, tax factors, municipalities, local governments
    JEL: H54 H71 O18
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Dimitrios Tsiotas; Labros Sdrolias; Dimitrios Belias
    Abstract: Network Science is an emerging discipline using the network paradigm to model communication systems as pair-sets of interconnected nodes and their linkages (edges). This paper applies this paradigm to study an interacting system in regional economy consisting of daily road transportation flows for labor purposes, the so-called commuting phenomenon. In particular, the commuting system in Greece including 39 non-insular prefectures is modeled into a complex network and it is studied using measures and methods of complex network analysis and empirical techniques. The study aims to detect the structural characteristics of the Greek interregional commuting network (GCN) and to interpret how this network is related to the regional development. The analysis highlights the effect of the spatial constraints in the structure of the GCN, it provides insights about the major road transport projects constructed the last decade, and it outlines a populationcontrolled (gravity) pattern of commuting, illustrating that high-populated regions attract larger volumes of the commuting activity, which consequently affects their productivity. Overall, this paper highlights the effectiveness of complex network analysis in the modeling of systems of regional economy, such as the systems of spatial interaction and the transportation networks, and it promotes the use of the network paradigm to the regional research.
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Roy Cerqueti; Luca De Benedictis; Valerio Leone Sciabolazza
    Abstract: This paper generalizes the original Schelling (1969, 1971a,b, 2006) model of racial and residential segregation to a context of variable externalities due to social linkages. In a setting in which individuals' utility function is a convex combination of a heuristic function a la Schelling, of the distance to friends, and of the cost of moving, the prediction of the original model gets attenuated: the segregation equilibria are not the unique solutions. While the cost of distance has a monotonic pro-status-quo effect, equivalent to that of models of migration and gravity models, if friends and neighbours are formed following independent processes the location of friends in space generates an externality that reinforces the initial configuration if the distance to friends is minimal, and if the degree of each agent is high. The effect on segregation equilibria crucially depends on the role played by network externalities.
    Date: 2020–01
  9. By: Mei Dong (University of Melbourne); Toshiaki Shoji (Seikei University); Yuki Teranishi (Keio University)
    Abstract: This paper builds up a model for a rental housing market. With a search and matching friction in a rental housing market, a new house entry is endogenized according to a business cycle. A price negotiation happens only when owner and tenant newly match and make a contract for a rental price. After making a contract, a rental price is fixed until the contract ends. Simulations show that variations of a price and a market tightness change according to a search friction in a housing market, a speed of a housing cycle, a bargaining power between owner and tenant for a price setting. An extensive margin effect brought by a housing entry well contributes to a price variation and this effect significantly changes by parameters.
    Keywords: rental housing market; search and matching
    Date: 2020–02
  10. By: Serafeim Polyzos; Dimitrios Tsiotas
    Abstract: Technological developments worldwide are contributing to the improvement of transport infrastructures and they are helping to reduce the overall transport costs. At the same time, such developments along with the reduction in transport costs are affecting the spatial interdependence between the regions and countries, a fact inducing significant effects on their economies and, in general, on their growth-rates. A specific class of transport infrastructures contributing significantly to overcoming the spatial constraints is the airtransport infrastructures. Nowadays, the importance of air-transport infrastructures in the economic development is determinative, especially for the geographically isolated regions, such as for the island regions of Greece. Within this context, this paper studies the Greek airports and particularly the evolution of their overall transportation imprint, their geographical distribution, and the volume of the transport activity of each airport. Also, it discusses, in a broad context, the seasonality of the Greek airport activity, the importance of the airports for the local and regional development, and it formulates general conclusions.
    Date: 2020–01
  11. By: Pastore, Francesco; Semerikova, Elena
    Abstract: This paper aims to assess the role of migration as an adjustment mechanism device to favor convergence across states and regions of Russia. In contrast to previous studies, we use variations in the population of a region as a proxy of its net migration rate and apply spatial econometric methodology in order to distinguish the effect from the neighbouring regions. We provide descriptive statistical evidence showing that Russia has more/less/the same intense migration flows than the USA and EU. The econometric analysis shows that migration flows are sensitive to both regional income and regional unemployment differentials. Nonetheless, we find that internal migration is sensitive to regional unemployment and income differentials of neighbouring regions. Dependent on the welfare, pre- or after-crisis period, income in neighbouring regions can create out- or in-migration flows. The relatively high degree of internal mobility coupled with the low sensitivity of migration flows to the local unemployment rate of distant regions might explain why migration flows tends not to generate convergence, but rather divergence across Russian regions.
    Keywords: Internal and International migration,Adjustment mechanism,spatial econometrics,Russia
    JEL: F15 F22 J61 R23
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Yann Bramoullé; Habiba Djebbari; Bernard Fortin
    Abstract: We survey the recent, fast-growing literature on peer effects in networks. An important recurring theme is that the causal identification of peer effects depends on the structure of the network itself. In the absence of correlated effects, the reflection problem is generally solved by network interactions even in non-linear, heterogeneous models. By contrast, microfoundations are generally not identified. We discuss and assess the various approaches developed by economists to account for correlated effects and network endogeneity in particular. We classify these approaches in four broad categories: random peers, random shocks, structural endogeneity and panel data. We review an emerging literature relaxing the assumption that the network is perfectly known. Throughout, we provide a critical reading of the existing literature and identify important gaps and directions for future research.
    Keywords: Social Networks,Peer Effects,Identification,Causal Effects,Randomization,Measurement Errors,
    JEL: C31 C21 C90
    Date: 2020–01–28
  13. By: Luisa Dörr; Florian Dorn; Stefanie Gäbler; Niklas Potrafke
    Abstract: We examine how new airport infrastructure influences regional tourism. Identification is based on the conversion of a military air base into a regional commercial airport in the German state of Bavaria. The new airport opened in 2007 and promotes travelling to the touristic region Allgäu in the Bavarian Alps. We use a synthetic control approach and show that the new commercial airport increased tourism in the Allgäu region over the period 2008-2016. The positive effect is especially pronounced in the county where the airport is located. Our results suggest that new transportation infrastructure promotes regional economic development.
    Keywords: airports, tourism, regional development, transportation infrastructure, synthetic control method
    JEL: O18 Z38 L93
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Damiaan Persyn (European Commission - JRC); Jorge Diaz-Lanchas (European Commission - JRC); Javier Barbero (European Commission - JRC); Andrea Conte (European Commission - JRC); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Transport costs data are a key input for trade analysis and for industry-level studies focusing on spatial distribution and logistics. Surprisingly, good transport estimates at a detailed spatial level for the EU are not readily available. This Policy Insight presents a new freely available dataset containing estimates of distance and time related transport costs between all NUTS-2 EU regions. This Insight briefly illustrates both the main assumptions behind the construction of the dataset and its core characteristics. The estimates take into account both the time needed and the distance covered by a representative truck travelling along optimal routes between samples of points within the EU regions. The resulting dataset contains an origin-destination cost matrix in euros at the region pair level. Moreover, the sampling approach allows calculating average transport costs within each region. Both arithmetic and harmonic averages are considered - the latter may be more relevant for interaction modelling such as the estimation of trade gravity equations.
    Keywords: rhomolo, region, growth, transport costs, regional distance, EU
    JEL: C82 R12 R40 R41
    Date: 2020–01
  15. By: Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Veronica
    Abstract: A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases when processing information about themselves, but less is known about the underlying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regarding academic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from middle to high school in Mexico City. The paper takes advantage of rich and longitudinal data on subjective beliefs together with randomized feedback about individual performance on an achievement test. On average, the performance feedback reduces the relative role of priors on posteriors and shifts substantial probability mass toward the signal. Further evidence reveals that males and high-socioeconomic status students, especially those attending relatively better schools, tend to process new information on their own ability more effectively.
    Keywords: Information; Subjective expectations; Academic ability; Bayesian updating;; Over confidence; Secondary education.
    JEL: C93 D80 D83 D84 I24
    Date: 2020–01
  16. By: Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Wegmann, Jake; Jiao, Junfeng
    Abstract: Traditional US rental housing data sources such as the American Community Survey and the American Housing Survey report on the transacted market—what existing renters pay each month. They do not explicitly tell us about the spot market—i.e., the asking rents that current homeseekers must pay to acquire housing—though they are routinely used as a proxy. This study compares governmental data to millions of contemporaneous rental listings and finds that asking rents diverge substantially from these most recent estimates. Conventional housing data understate current market conditions and affordability challenges, especially in cities with tight and expensive rental markets.
    Date: 2020–02–04
  17. By: Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University)
    Abstract: Computational notebooks offer researchers, practitioners, students, and educators the ability to interactively conduct analytics and disseminate reproducible workflows that weave together code, visuals, and narratives. This article explores the potential of computational notebooks in urban analytics and planning, demonstrating their utility through a case study of OSMnx and its tutorials repository. OSMnx is a Python package for working with OpenStreetMap data and modeling, analyzing, and visualizing street networks anywhere in the world. Its official demos and tutorials are distributed as open-source Jupyter notebooks on GitHub. This article showcases this resource by documenting the repository and demonstrating OSMnx interactively through a synoptic tutorial adapted from the repository. It illustrates how to download urban data and model street networks for various study sites, compute network indicators, visualize street centrality, calculate routes, and work with other spatial data such as building footprints and points of interest. Computational notebooks help introduce methods to new users and help researchers reach broader audiences interested in learning from, adapting, and remixing their work. Due to their utility and versatility, the ongoing adoption of computational notebooks in urban planning, analytics, and related geocomputation disciplines should continue into the future.
    Date: 2020–01–13
  18. By: Sule Alan (University of Essex); Ceren Baysan (University of Essex); Mert Gumren (Koc University); Elif Kubilay (University of Essex)
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of an educational program that aims to build inter-ethnic cohesion in schools by developing perspective-taking ability in children. The program takes place in southeastern Turkey, a high-stakes context in which there has been a massive influx of refugees. We measure outcomes that are fundamental to economic interactions and social cohesion, including peer violence, social exclusion, and prosocial behavior. Using randomized variation in program implementation, we find that the program significantly lowers peer violence and victimization on school grounds. It also reduces social exclusion and ethnic segregation in the classroom, measured by inter-ethnic friendship ties. We find that the program is highly effective in enhancing prosocial behavior: Treated students exhibit significantly higher trust, reciprocity, and altruism toward each other. Our results suggest that well-targeted educational strategies can go a long way in building social capital, even in sociopolitically difficult circumstances.
    Keywords: social cohesion, education, refugee integration, social exclusion
    JEL: I24 I28 D24 C93
    Date: 2020–01
  19. By: Nicole Johnston; Andrew Sharpe
    Abstract: This report sheds light on the deficiencies in infrastructure faced by Canada’s remote Indigenous communities by quantifying the level of infrastructure in 236 remote communities in Canada’s North. This quantification is done through a composite index based on 13 infrastructure indicators, including availability of broadband, roads, airports, the electrical grid, health care, education, water, and housing, with values ranging from 0 to 1. This report compares the level of infrastructure found in remote Indigenous communities both with remote nonIndigenous northern communities and southern cities. Indigenous communities are broken down by the three heritage groups: First Nations, Inuit and Métis. While the southern cities identified in the 2016 Census as Census Metropolitan Areas have an average index score of 0.97, remote Indigenous communities saw a score of 0.45 and remote non-Indigenous communities a score of 0.82. Inuit communities face the lowest level of infrastructure (an index score of 0.31), and remote Indigenous communities in Nunavut fared the lowest of the jurisdictions with a score of 0.30.
    Keywords: Infrastructure, Remote communities, Indigenous communities, Canada
    JEL: H54 R58 H72
    Date: 2019–08
  20. By: Allen, Jeff (University of Toronto); Farber, Steven
    Abstract: Social equity is increasingly becoming an important objective in transport planning and project evaluation. This paper provides a framework and an empirical investigation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) examining the links between public transit accessibility and the risks of social exclusion, simply understood as the suppressed ability to conduct daily activities at normal levels. Specifically, we use a large-sample travel survey to present a new transport-geography concept termed participation deserts, neighbourhood-level clusters of lower than expected activity participation. We then use multivariate models to estimate where, and for whom, improvements in transit accessibility will effectively increase activity participation and reduce risks of transport-related social exclusion. Our results show that neighbourhoods with high concentrations of low-income and zero-car households located outside of major transit corridors are the most sensitive to having improvements in accessibility increase daily activity participation rates. We contend that transit investments providing better connections to these neighbourhoods would have the greatest benefit in terms of alleviating existing inequalities and reducing the risks of social exclusion. The ability for transport investments to liberate suppressed activity participation is not currently being predicted or valued in existing transport evaluation methodologies, but there is great potential in doing so in order to capture the social equity benefits associated with increasing transit accessibility.
    Date: 2020–01–03
  21. By: Carine Viac (OECD); Pablo Fraser (OECD)
    Abstract: Modern education systems evolve in a context of growing teacher shortages, frequent turnover and a low attractiveness of the profession. In such a context where these challenges interrelate, there is an urgent need to better understand the well-being of teachers and its implications on the teaching and learning nexus. This is the ambition of the OECD Teacher Well-being and Quality Teaching Project. This working paper is an integral part in the development of this project as it proposes a comprehensive conceptual framework to analyse teachers’ occupational well-being and its linkages with quality teaching. The core concept of this framework defines teachers’ well-being around four key components: physical and mental well-being, cognitive well-being, subjective well-being and social well-being. The framework then explores how working conditions, at both system and school levels, can impact and shape teachers’ well-being, both positively and negatively aspects. It also presents two types of expected outcomes regarding teachers’ well-being: inward outcomes for teachers in terms of levels of stress and intentions to leave the profession; and outward outcomes on quality teaching in terms of classroom processes and student’ well-being. In an annex, the paper proposes an analytical plan on how to analyse teachers’ well-being indicators and cross the results with other OECD instruments. It also presents the field trial items of the new module on teachers’ well-being which are included in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2021 teacher questionnaire.
    Date: 2020–01–30
  22. By: Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis; Princeton University); Giorgio E. Primiceri (Northwestern University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Andrea Tambalotti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Research and Statistics Group; Princeton University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research)
    Abstract: There is no consensus among economists as to what drove the rise of U.S. house prices and household debt in the period leading up to the recent financial crisis. In this post, we argue that the fundamental factor behind that boom was an increase in the supply of mortgage credit, which was brought about by securitization and shadow banking, along with a surge in capital inflows from abroad. This argument is based on the interpretation of four macroeconomic developments between 2000 and 2006 provided by a general equilibrium model of housing and credit.
    Keywords: Interest rates; Macroprudential policy; Mortgages; Leverage restrictions; Household debt
    JEL: E2
  23. By: Essi Eerola (VATT Institute for Economic Research and CESifo); Tuomas Kosonen (Labour Institute for Economic Research and CESifo); Kaisa Kotakorpi (VATT, University of Turku and CESifo); Teemu Lyytikäinen (VATT)
    Abstract: We study rental income tax compliance using a large-scale randomizedfield experiment and register data with third-party information on theownership of apartments. We analyze the responses of potential land-lords to treatment letters notifying them of stricter tax enforcement. Wealso study spillover effects of tax enforcement within the household andbetween landlords within local rental markets. We find an increase inreported income after an enforcement letter is sent to landlords. We alsofind positive reporting spillovers between spouses, as well as betweenlandlords in a subgroup of more likely evaders.
    Keywords: tax compliance, tax enforcement, field experiment, rental housing markets
    JEL: H26 H83 R31
    Date: 2019–05
  24. By: Mariano Narodowski
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to show the achievements and challenges of Chile's system of free school choice compared to countries with similar socioeconomic structures and common educational histories, but with traditional education systems: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.
    Date: 2018–10
  25. By: A. GODZINSKI (Insee); M. SUAREZ CASTILLO (Insee)
    Abstract: When public transport supply decreases, urban population health may be strongly affected. First, as ambient air pollution increases, respiratory diseases may be exacerbated during a few days. Second, reduced interpersonal contacts may lead to a slower viral spread, and therefore, after a few incubation days, lower morbidity. We evidence these two channels, using a difference-in-differences strategy, considering public transport strikes in the ten most populated French cities over the 2010-2015 period. On the two days following the strike, we find less emergency hospital admissions for influenza and gastroenteritis. In spite of the existence of this contagion channel, which tends to mitigate the increase of admissions for respiratory diseases, we also evidence a substantial air pollution channel. On the strike day, we find more admissions for acute diseases of the upper respiratory system, while on the following day of the strike, more abnormalities of breathing. Our results suggest that urban population daily transportation choices do matter as they engender dynamic spillovers on health.
    Keywords: Dynamic health effects, transport strike, air pollution, contagion, difference-in-differences
    JEL: I12 I18 C23 L91 Q53 R41
    Date: 2019
  26. By: Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
    Abstract: Despite numerous studies on the social and political impact of refugees in Europe, we have very little systematic evidence on the impact of refugee settlement on social cohesion in the developing world. Using data gathered in Northern Lebanon, we show that increased salience of the "refugee crisis" decreases natives' trust and prosocial preferences toward refugees, suggesting a negative impact of mass refugee settlement. However, this negative impact is driven exclusively by respondents with no individual exposure to refugees. In fact, despite concerns that refugee settlements may result in local conflict, we find that individual proximity to refugees is positively correlated with trust towards refugees, and that proximity has a positive spillover effect on social capital towards other migrants. This implies that, while the refugee crisis may have had a negative impact on social cohesion, this negative impact is mitigated in areas where natives are in contact with refugees.
    Keywords: migration,social capital,experiment,ethnicity
    JEL: F22 H41 D74
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Nicolas Ajzenman; Ruben Durante
    Abstract: Can seemingly unimportant factors influence voting decisions by making certain issuessalient? We study this question in the context of Argentina 2015 presidential electionsby examining how the quality of the infrastructure of the school where citizens wereassigned to vote influenced their voting choice. Exploiting the quasi-random assignmentof voters to ballot stations located in different public schools in the city of BuenosAires, we find that individuals assigned to schools with poorer infrastructure weresignificantly less likely to vote for Mauricio Macri, the incumbent mayor then runningfor president. The effect is larger in low-income areas - where fewer people can affordprivate substitutes to public education - and in places where more households have children in school age. The effect is unlikely to be driven by information scarcity,since information on public school infrastructure was readily available to parents beforeelections. Rather, direct exposure to poor school infrastructure at the time of votingis likely to make public education - and the poor performance of the incumbent - moresalient.
    Keywords: Elections, Salience, Electoral Punishment, Public Infrastructure, Education
    JEL: D72 D83 I25 D90
    Date: 2019–09
  28. By: María Lombardi
    Abstract: I study the impact of remedial training for low-performing teachers in Chile. Taking advantage of the fact that assignment to remediation is mainly based on teacher evaluation scores, I use a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and find that teachers barely assigned to remediation improve their pedagogical practices as measured by their next evaluation scores. While there is suggestive evidence that these teachers’ students obtain higher standardized test scores after the training is complete, this result is not robust, and the suggestive positive impact disappears after one year. I also find that during the year of their teacher’s reevaluation, the students of teachers assigned to remedial training obtain significantly lower test scores. Teachers assigned to remediation report lower prestige and job satisfaction, suggesting that the stigma of being labeled as a low performer leads teachers to put more effort into preparing their teaching evaluations, causing a temporary drop in student learning.
    Keywords: education, teachers, training, Chile
    JEL: I21 J24 M53
    Date: 2019–09
  29. By: Christian Ghiglino (Department of Economics, University of Essex - University of Essex); Kazuo Nishimura (RIEB, Kobe University - Kobe University); Alain Venditti (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EDHEC - EDHEC Business School)
    Abstract: We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 producing an intermediate "agricultural" good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 producing an intermediate "industrial" good with capital, labor and human capital, and the last type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience at the equilibrium heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the "industrial" type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the "agricultural" type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two formers. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the "agricultural" city decreases over time. This property allows to recover the empirical fact that most nonagricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time as shown in empirical studies.
    Keywords: city inequalities,heterogeneous growth rates,endogenous growth,human capital,urban dynamics
    Date: 2020–01
  30. By: Senior, Steven
    Abstract: Background Early child development predicts a range of later outcomes including educational achievement, employment, involvement in crime, health, and social care need. Inequalities in early childhood also cause inequalities in health later on in life. Because of this, early childhood is an important time for intervention. School readiness in England is used to refer to an assessment of a child's cognitive, emotional, and physical development, and is a major focus of effort for local and national policymakers. However, evidence on what factors affect school readiness is needed to guide policymakers at local and national levels. Methods I analysed a panel data set of 150 English upper tier local authorities from 2012 to 2016, for a total of 750 local-authority years. I used fixed effects poisson regression models to test for associations between local trends in school readiness performance and sure start spending, non-sure start children’s services spending, and child poverty rates. Results After adjustment for local trends in child poverty and spending on other children’s services, local trends in Sure Start spending were positively associated with school readiness, both among all children and among children eligible for free school meals (an indicator of poverty). All effects were small, with a 10% change in per-child Sure Start spending associated with a less than 0.2% change in school readiness performance. Conclusion Despite limitations associated with the ecological nature of this study, it provides evidence that Sure Start spending may improve school readiness. This complements wider evidence on the health benefits of Sure Start, suggesting that this programme had benefits across a range of outcomes.
    Date: 2020–02–04
  31. By: Elena Grinza; Stephan Kampelmann; François Rycx
    Abstract: Measuring the economic impact of coworkers from different countries of origin sparked intense scrutiny in labor economics, albeit with an uncomfortable methodological limitation. Most attempts have involved metrics that eliminate most of the socially and economically relevant heterogeneity among different countries of origin, salient dimension of diversity and critical determinant of labor market outcomes of migrants. The typical examples of such metrics are diversity indicators that divide the firm’s workforce into binary categories such as blacks and whites, foreigners and natives, and non-Europeans and Europeans. We propose an entirely novel approach that constructs a firm-level aggregate measure of diversity that explicitly takes into account differences in socio-economic conditions of migrants’ countries of origin. To do so, we use the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index (HDI), a standard harmonized measure of cross-country variations in levels of socio-economic development that is available for virtually all the countries in the world. By resorting to rich matched employer-employee panel data for Belgium, we use this new aggregate measure of firm-level diversity to estimate firm-level wage equations, which control for a wide range of observable and time-invariant unobservable factors, including variations in labor productivity between firms and within firms over time. The results seem to suggest that the majority of firms do not discriminate against foreigners. However, our findings show that firms with high diversity might broadly discriminate against them. The wage discrimination in high-diversity firms could be alleviated through a stronger presence of collective bargaining and efforts to de-cluster foreigners from low-HDI countries in these firms.
    Date: 2020–01–07
  32. By: Somouaoga Bonkoungou (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander Nesterov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Recently dozens of school districts and college admissions systems around the world have reformed their admission rules. As a main motivation for these reforms the policymakers cited strategic flaws of the rules: students had strong incentives to game the system, which caused dramatic consequences for non-strategic students. However, almost none of the new rules were strategy-proof. We explain this puzzle. We show that after the reforms the rules became more immune to strategic admissions: each student received a smaller set of schools that he can get in using a strategy, weakening incentives to manipulate. Simultaneously, the admission to each school became strategy-proof to a larger set of students, making the schools more available for non-strategic students. We also show that the existing explanation of the puzzle due to Pathak and S?onmez (2013) is incomplete
    Keywords: matching market design, school choice, college admission, manipulability
    JEL: C78 D47 D78 D82
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Todd Gardner
    Abstract: The geographic coding used in the 1970 decennial census can be challenging to interpret. The internal microdata includes geographic coding that is readily comparable to later censuses, the geographic coding used place of work and migration in the 1970 sample data is more complicated. The 1970 census was the last that made use of Universal Area Codes (UAC), which combined counties with selected places and Minor Civil Divisions into a single coding system. The UAC codes also indicated central business districts of large cities. This technical note describes how to interpret the place of work and migration variables and convert the information into more readily comparable geographic codes.
    Date: 2020–01
  34. By: Francis Bloch; Shaden Shabayek
    Abstract: This paper studies whether a planner who only has information about the network topology can discriminate among agents according to their network position. The planner proposes a simple menu of contracts, one for each location, in order to maximize total welfare, and agents choose among the menu. This mechanism is immune to deviations by single agents, and to deviations by groups of agents of sizes 2, 3 and 4 if side-payments are ruled out. However, if compensations are allowed, groups of agents may have an incentive to jointly deviate from the optimal contract in order to exploit other agents. We identify network topologies for which the optimal contract is group incentive compatible with transfers: undirected networks and regular oriented trees, and network topologies for which the planner must assign uniform quantities: single root and nested neighborhoods directed networks.
    Date: 2020–01
  35. By: Goodman, Christopher B (Northern Illinois University); Hatch, Megan E.; McDonald, Bruce D. III
    Abstract: American cities are creatures of their states, with states both granting and limiting the power of their cities. This relationship is characterized by how cooperative or competitive states are with cities in their legislation. Despite the recent attention given to state preemption of local laws, this is not a new phenomenon. Part of the confusion surrounding preemption is that there is no shared definition or understanding of its forms. The purpose of this article is to begin to create that shared conception. In doing so, we define preemption according to its historic origins. We argue modern state preemption of local laws can be divided into four phases, each with their own policies and mechanisms. We show how preemption has changed over time, shifting the functional and legal relationship between states and their cities. Together, these phases help assist policymakers and administrators in understanding the nature of state preemption, and thus how to create and implement local policies in an environment where the distribution of power between governments is competitive and changing.
    Date: 2020–01–14
  36. By: Cohen, Adam; Guan, Justin; Beamer, Matthew; Dittoe, Ryan; Mokhtarimousavi, Seyedmirsajad
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2020–01–12
  37. By: Clément Bosquet (Spatial Economic Research Center); Pierre-Philippe Combes (Département d'économie); Emeric Henry (Département d'économie); Thierry Mayer (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: Using an instrument based on a national contest in France determining researchers’ location, we find evidence of peer effects in academia, when focusing on precise groups of senders (producing the spillovers) and receivers (benefiting from the spillovers), defined based on field of specialisation, gender and age. These peer effects are shown to exist even outside formal co-authorship relationships. Furthermore, the match between the characteristics of senders and receivers plays a critical role. In particular, men benefit a lot from peer effects provided by men, while all other types of gender combinations produce spillovers twice as small.
    Keywords: Economics of Science; Peer Effects; Research Productivity; Gender Publication Gap
    JEL: I23 J16 J24
    Date: 2019–11
  38. By: Wheeler, Andrew Palmer (University of Texas at Dallas); Steenbeek, Wouter
    Abstract: Objectives: We illustrate how a machine learning algorithm, Random Forests, can provide accurate long-term predictions of crime at micro places relative to other popular techniques. We also show how recent advances in model summaries can help to open the ‘black box’ of Random Forests, considerably improving their interpretability. Methods: We generate long-term crime forecasts for robberies in Dallas at 200 by 200 feet grid cells that allow spatially varying associations of crime generators and demographic factors across the study area. We then show how using interpretable model summaries facilitate understanding the model’s inner workings. Results: We find that Random Forests greatly outperform Risk Terrain Models and Kernel Density Estimation in terms of forecasting future crimes using different measures of predictive accuracy, but only slightly outperform using prior counts of crime. We find different factors that predict crime are highly non-linear and vary over space. Conclusions: We show how using black-box machine learning models can provide accurate micro placed based crime predictions, but still be interpreted in a manner that fosters understanding of why a place is predicted to be risky. Data and code to replicate the results can be downloaded from d6/AAAjqnoMVKjzNQnWP9eu7M1ra?dl=0
    Date: 2020–01–18
  39. By: Denise Pumain (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Juste Raimbault (Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL - UCL - University College of London [London], ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - X - École polytechnique - Institut Curie - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: At the end of the five years of work in our GeoDiverCity program, we brought together a diversity of authors from different disciplines. Each person was invited to present an important question about the theories and models of urbanization. They are representative of a variety of currents in urban research. Rather than repeat here the contents of all chapters, we propose two ways to synthesize the scientific contributions of this book. In a first part we replace them in relation to a few principles that were experimented in our program, and in a second part we situate them with respect to a broader view of international literature on these topics. The first part of this concluding chapter is a selection of salient points from our evolutionary theory of urban systems that are discussed in several of the chapters. As many of our results were already published (Pumain et al. 2015; Cura et al. 2017; Pumain & Reuillon 2017) 2 it was possible to confirm them, or to bring more different evidence or contradictory views. For each of these lively research questions, we report the convergent opinions that emerged from the topics discussed, as well as the open and even controversial perspectives for future work. The second part reports a quantitative analysis which arrives at another form of synthesis from the bibliographies of the chapters of the book and their networks of citations. This requires the use of methods for constructing and exploring large digital bibliographical data. Each part gives an overview of the current state of urban science, first of all according to its reported results and then according to the articulations between the conceptions of those who make it. We can easily imagine that in the near future, the second method will become an essential prerequisite for realizing the first, provided that further semantic analysis of the content of papers could be made.
    Date: 2020–01–03
  40. By: Rostislav Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Koroteeva P.P. (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Rusanova K.A. (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This research analyzes the nationalization of Russian party system and presidential candidates from 1996 till 2018 based on the index of nationalization, coefficient of variation, and Euclidean distance, proposing the new method of assessing the aforementioned measurements. The method includes using not the regional level data, but the lower unit of analyses – territorial electoral commissions, which improves the overall precision of the nationalization assessment. Furthermore, the regions themselves are compared to one another in the aspect of their “inner” nationalization
    Keywords: Russian federal elections, regional comparisons, electoral support, party system nationalization, Euclidean distance, coefficient of variation, Gini index, territorial electoral commissions.
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2020
  41. By: Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute, and National Bureau of Economic Research); Yoko Niimi (Faculty of Policy Studies, Doshisha University, and Asian Growth Research Institute, Japan)
    Abstract: This paper shows, using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, that housing credit has become increasingly available over time in Japan, especially since 2000, and that this has made it easier for Japanese households to purchase housing and enabled them to do so at an earlier age. However, it also shows that the greater availability of housing credit has increased households' housing loan repayment burden, which has resulted in their cutting back on their other consumption expenditures and created the potential for retirement insecurity. Another concern is that the increasing availability of housing credit has been accompanied by a pronounced shift from fixed-rate to variablerate housing loans. This is cause for concern given the low level of financial literacy that prevails among the Japanese population and the likelihood that interest rates on variablerate housing loans will be raised sooner or later as monetary policy is tightened.
    Keywords: Homeownership; Housing credit; Housing loans; Mortgages; Household debt; Household liabilities
    JEL: D14 E21 R21
    Date: 2020–01
  42. By: Constant, Amelie F.
    Abstract: This chapter undertook the monumental task of providing a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration by bringing together the perspectives of the host and the home country. In this endeavor, it reviewed and evaluated all theories about why people move, when they circulate, where they go, who are the people who migrate, who are the people who return, and how they change the economic and social structures in the home country. In the process, it revealed the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlined the importance of non-economic reasons for return. The chapter further provided a state-of-the-art literature review about empirical evidence regarding the disparate phenomena of return, circular and onward migration. It emphasized commonalities and compared differences in findings, while connecting them to the theories, policies and institutions. Return, repeat, and circular migrants are self-selected and extremely heterogeneous people and cannot conform under one theory or empirical study. Their de facto migration comportment can be understood by several different theories and, in the absence of good data, it can be explained by a variety of studies. The chapter ends with a critical conclusion and hope to inspire new avenues of research on the topic.
    Keywords: Return,circular,onward,international labor migration,public policy
    JEL: F22 J15 J18 J20 J61
    Date: 2020

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