nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒12‒02
seventy papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Transit-Oriented Development Policies and Station Area Development in Asian Cities By Kidokoro, Tetsuo
  2. Big-city life (dis)satisfaction? The effect of living in urban areas on subjective well-being By David Loschiavo
  3. Endogenous Local Labour Markets, Regional Aggregation and Agglomeration Economies By Meekes, Jordy; Hassink, Wolter
  4. Homes on the right tracks: greening the Green Belt to solve the housing crisis By Cheshire, Paul; Buyuklieva, Boyana
  5. Local House Price Comovements By Marcel Fischer; Roland Füss; Simon Stehle
  6. Does Pollution Drive Achievement? The Effect of Traffic Pollution on Academic Performance By Heissel, Jennifer; Persico, Claudia; Simon, David
  7. This Town Ain't Big Enough? Quantifying Local Public Goods Spillovers By Nicolas Jannin; Aurélie Sotura
  8. Local taxation on households: an analysis at municipal level By Laura Conti; Daniela Mele; Vanni Mengotto; Eugenia Panicara; Roberto Rassu; Valentina Romano
  9. Ethnic Segregation and Native Out-Migration in Copenhagen By Stonawski, Marcin Jan; Rogne, Adrian F.; Bang, Henrik; Christensen, Henning; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde
  10. Social Norms in Networks By Ushchev, Philip; Zenou, Yves
  11. The top tail of the property wealth distribution and the production of the residential environment By Paccoud, Antoine
  12. Assimilation Patterns in Cities By Sato, Yasuhiro; Zenou, Yves
  13. On the Accuracy of Schedule-Based GTFS for Measuring Accessibility By Wessel, Nate; Farber, Steven
  14. Public Schools Can Improve Student Outcomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in India By Naveen Kumar
  15. Co-movement between residential and commercial housing prices: Evidence from a new database By Juan Carlos Cuestas
  16. Imperfect melting pot – analysis of changes in diversity and segregation of US urban census tracts in the period of 1990-2010 By Stepinski, Tomasz; Dmowska, Anna
  17. Does the Implementation of the Schengen Agreement Boost Cross-Border Commuting? Evidence from Switzerland By Parenti, Angela; Tealdi, Cristina
  18. Political Competition and Local Government Performance: Evidence from Indonesia By Rezki, Jahen Fachrul
  19. The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on Regional Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparity in Indonesia (Case Study: West Sumatra Province during the period 2011 - 2017) By Defri Kurniawan
  20. "It feels like being pushed in...": Contributions of Sociology of Mobility on bicycle use in the city of São Paulo By Abilio, Carolina
  21. How Does School Choice Affect Racial Integration? By Diana McCallum; Christina Tuttle; Jeffrey Max; Brian Gill; Philip Gleason
  22. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts By Lino, Jayne; Rohat, Guillaume; Kirshen, Paul; Dao, Hy
  23. One or many cohesion policies of the European Union?: on the differential economic impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States By Crescenzi, Riccardo; Giua, Mara
  24. Optimal pricing of car use in a small city: a case study of Uppsala By Asplund, Disa; Pyddoke, Roger
  25. Inference in Models of Discrete Choice with Social Interactions Using Network Data By Michael P. Leung
  26. Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting By Laurynas Narusevicius; Tomas Ramanauskas; Laura Gudauskaitė; Tomas Reichenbachas
  27. Are Regional Differences in Personality and their Correlates robust? Applying Spatial Analysis Techniques to Examine Regional Variation in Personality across the U.S. and Germany By Tobias Ebert; Jochen E. Gebauer; Thomas Brenner; Wiebke Bleidorn; Samuel D. Gosling; Jeff Potter; P. Jason Rentfrow
  28. Landlords and Access to Opportunity By Aliprantis, Dionissi; Martin, Hal; Phillips, David
  29. Cities on the global real estate marketplace: urban development policy and the circulation of financial standards in two French localities By Antoine Guironnet
  30. Internal and External Determinants of Housing Price Booms in Hong Kong, China By Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Yoshino, Naoyuki; Chiu, Alvin
  31. Engagement with State and Local Government By Goerge, Robert
  32. Effect of Central City Revitalization Policy on Commerce: Evidence from Establishment-level Data Analysis in Kumamoto (Japanese) By HONDA Keiichiro; KAWANISHI Takuya
  33. Regional policies for Italian innovative start-ups By Giuseppe Albanese; Raffaello Bronzini; Luciano Lavecchia; Giovanni Soggia
  34. The Effect of Compulsory Schooling on Skills: Evidence from a Reform in Germany By Franziska Hampf
  35. How Does School Choice Affect Student Achievement in Traditional Public Schools? By Jeffrey Max; Christina Tuttle; Philip Gleason; Diana McCallum; Brian Gill
  36. Return, circular, and onward migration decisions in a knowledge society By Constant, Amelie
  37. Weapons Of The Strong: Elite Resistance And The Neo-Apartheid City By Bradlow, Benjamin H.
  38. Big or small cities? On city size and economic growth. By Frick, Susanne A.; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  39. Confronting the challenge of immigrant and refugee student underachievement: Policies and practices from Canada, New Zealand and the European Union By Bilgili, Özge; Volante, Louis; Klinger, Don A.; Siegel, Melissa
  40. The Effect of Stressors and Resilience Factors on Mental Health of Recent Refugees in Austria By Isabella Buber-Ennser; Judith Kohlenberger; Michael Landesmann; Sebastian Leitner; Bernhard Rengs
  41. A Method for Studying Difference in Segregation Levels Across Time and Space By Elbers, Benjamin
  42. Do agglomeration economies are lower for polluting sectors? By Emmanuelle Leturque; Mathieu Sanch-Maritan
  43. Displaying spatial epistemologies on web GIS: using visual materials from the Chinese local gazetteers as an example By Lin, Nung-yao; Chen, Shih-Pei; Wang, Sean H.; Yeh, Calvin
  44. The Contributions of Socioeconomic and Opioid Supply Factors to Geographic Variation in U.S. Drug Mortality Rates By Shannon M. Monnat
  45. Housing Sprint: land report By Cheshire, Paul; Carozzi, Felipe
  46. Social Interventions, Health and Wellbeing: The Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of a School Construction Program By Mazumder, Bhashkar; Rosales, Maria Fernanda; Triyana, Margaret
  47. The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark By Ole Agersnap; Amalie Sofie Jensen; Henrik Kleven
  48. Race, Ethnicity, and the Future of Work By Moradi, Pegah
  49. A Longitudinal Typology of Neighbourhood-level Social Fragmentation: A Finite Mixture Model Approach By Lekkas, Peter; Howard, Natasha J; Stankov, Ivana; daniel, mark; Paquet, Catherine
  50. Urban agglomerations and firm access to credit By Amanda Carmignani; Guido de Blasio; Cristina Demma; Alessio D'Ignazio
  51. Whose Realm, His Trust - Regional Disparities of Generalized Trust in Europe By Stephany, Fabian
  52. Perceived Discrimination against Black Americans and White Americans By Zigerell, Lawrence J. Jr.
  53. Follow the leader? A field experiment on social influence By Kate Ambler; Susan Godlonton; María P. Recalde
  54. Causal Inference Under Approximate Neighborhood Interference By Michael P. Leung
  55. Accessibility Beyond the Schedule By Wessel, Nate
  56. Various Domains of Integration of Refugees and their Interrelationships: A Study of Recent Refugee Inflows in Austria By Michael Landesmann; Sandra M. Leitner
  57. Confirmation Bias in Social Networks By Marcos Fernandes
  58. Immigration and Preferences for Greater Law Enforcement Spending in Rich Democracies By Brady, David; Fink, Joshua J
  59. Approaches to Measure the Wider Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail and Experiences from Europe By Rothengatter, Werner
  60. Water Purification Efforts and the Black-White Infant Mortality Gap, 1906-1938 By Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Rees, Daniel I.; Wang, Tianyi
  61. Weathering an Unexpected Financial Shock: The Role of Cash Grants on Household Finance and Business Survival By Gallagher, Justin; Hartley, Daniel; Rohlin, Shawn M.
  62. Settlement Location Shapes Refugee Integration: Evidence from Post-War Germany By Braun, Sebastian Till; Dwenger, Nadja
  63. Lending a Hand: How Small Black Businesses Supported the Civil Rights Movement By Louis A. Ferleger; Matthew Lavallee
  64. The Causal Economic Effects of Olympic Games on Host Regions By Matthias Firgo
  65. Defending the Right to Subsist the State vs. the Urban Informal Economy in Tanzania By Tripp, Aili Mari
  66. Tourism and local growth in Italy By Emanuele Ciani; Raffaello Bronzini; Francesco Montaruli
  67. Ensuring Confidentiality and Rich Data in Large Data Sets: Birth Rates vary between Warm and Cold Seasons in the US Population By Siordia, Carlos; Leyser-Whalen, Ophra
  68. The Cost of Supporting Military Bases By Congressional Budget Office
  69. Hedger of Last Resort: evidence from Brazilian FX interventions, local credit, and global financial cycles By Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez; Dmitry Khametshin; José-Luis Peydró; Andrea Polo
  70. "Segregation and Public Spending under Social Identification" By Mariko Nakagawa; Yasuhiro Sato; Kazuhiro Yamamoto

  1. By: Kidokoro, Tetsuo (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Many metropolitan cities in Asia are planning and implementing extensive investment in mass transit networks and thus are now on the threshold of becoming transit cities or car traffic saturation cities. The promotion of transit-oriented development (TOD) policies will be a key to the progression to transit cities. TOD should consider a transit-oriented regional growth management plan, station area zoning regulations (mixed-use, minimum density, maximum parking, etc.), joint development among local governments, transit agencies, and private developers, and an institutional mechanism for public and private cooperation in station area development. We examine cases from cities in Japan, the United States (US), and Southeast Asia, including Tokyo and Toyama in Japan, Denver in the US, and Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. We conclude that the following are factors for the successful implementation of TOD in Asian cities: a shift from highway-based zoning to transit-oriented zoning; the creation of an institutional mechanism for public and private cooperation in station area development; a balance between public benefit and private benefit; the connection of transit services and affordable housing; and multi-modal connection planning, including walking.
    Keywords: asia; mass transit network; metropolitan cities; transit cities; transit-oriented development; urbanization
    JEL: O18 R42 R51 R58
    Date: 2019–05–08
  2. By: David Loschiavo (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of big-city life on individuals' well-being. Combining data on Italian municipalities' characteristics with individual-level survey data, I find that city size negatively affects subjective well-being. This association is not driven by omitted variable bias or by spatial sorting of citizens. Commute time accounts for most of the differences in subjective well-being among cities of different size. There is suggestive evidence that the negative effect of commuting on well-being is caused by reduced time availability for fostering personal relationships and engaging in leisure activities. This finding suggests that interventions reducing the amount of time people spend in an unpleasant state can spur agglomeration economies and their contribution to aggregate productivity and growth.
    Keywords: subjective well-being, urbanization, commute time
    JEL: D60 I3 R23 R41 H54 J61
    Date: 2019–06
  3. By: Meekes, Jordy (University of Melbourne); Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of regional aggregation in measuring agglomeration externalities. Using Dutch administrative data, we define local labour markets (LLMs) based on the worker's commuting outcomes, gender and educational attainment, and show that high-educated workers and male workers are characterised by a relatively large LLM. We find that the effect of employment density on workers' wages increases in the level of regional aggregation, explained by larger agglomeration externalities at a higher spatial scale. We quantify subgroup differentials and find that high-educated workers have agglomeration externalities twice as high as low-educated workers. We show that workers who lose their job in denser LLMs experience positive agglomeration externalities on job matching, with more modest losses in wages and again larger density effects at higher levels of regional aggregation.
    Keywords: urban wage premium, job loss, local labour markets, commuting, agglomeration
    JEL: R12 R23 J31 J6
    Date: 2019–11
  4. By: Cheshire, Paul; Buyuklieva, Boyana
    Abstract: The housing crisis is arguably the biggest challenge facing economically successful cities. It has grown for decades and is now corroding social and inter-generational cohesion, increasing regional inequality, and hampering the economic growth of many of our largest cities as workers are forced out by a lack of homes. Official estimates suggest that we need to build at least 300,000 new homes each year to keep up with the soaring demand. But, despite recent increases in the number of homes built, policy makers have so far been unable to develop a comprehensive plan that delivers homes at the scale this country needs. This report, authored by academics from the LSE and UCL and published by Centre for Cities sets out detailed plans to release green belt around more than one thousand existing commuter rail stations and build more than two million new homes with fast connections into many of Britain’s largest cities.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2019–09–22
  5. By: Marcel Fischer; Roland Füss; Simon Stehle
    Abstract: We study the micro-level evolution of residential house prices using data on repeat sales on Manhattan Island from 2004 to 2015. We document that excess price comovement is a highly local and persistent phenomenon. The strength of such excess comovements vanishes with both spatial and temporal distance. Local underperformance is more persistent than local overperformance - particularly when house prices on aggregate level increase.
    Keywords: Housing market, price comovements, urban economics, realt estate, repeat sales
    JEL: R30 R32
    Date: 2019–05
  6. By: Heissel, Jennifer (Naval Postgraduate School); Persico, Claudia (American University); Simon, David (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of school traffic pollution on student outcomes by leveraging variation in wind patterns for schools the same distance from major highways. We compare within-student achievement for students transitioning between schools near highways, where one school has had greater levels of pollution because it is downwind of a highway. Students who move from an elementary/middle school that feeds into a "downwind" middle/high school in the same zip code experience decreases in test scores, more behavioral incidents, and more absences, relative to when they transition to an upwind school. Even within zip codes, microclimates can contribute to inequality.
    Keywords: air pollution, academic achievement, child health
    JEL: Q53 I24 I14
    Date: 2019–11
  7. By: Nicolas Jannin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélie Sotura (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Despite long-standing theoretical interest, empirical attempts at investigating the appropriate level of decentralization remain scarce. This paper develops a simple and flexible framework to test for the presence of public good spillovers between fiscally autonomous jurisdictions and investigate potential welfare gains from marginal fiscal integration. We build a quantitative spatial equilibrium model of cities with mobile households and endogenous local public goods causingspillovers across jurisdictional boundaries. We show how one can exploit migration and house priceresponses to shocks in local public goods at different geographic scales to reveal the intensity ofspillovers. Applying our framework to the particularly fragmented French institutional setting, westructurally estimate the model using a unique combination of administrative panel datasets on cities. Estimation relies on plausibly exogenous variations in government subsidies to instrument changes in the supply of local public goods. We find that public goods of neighboring cities account for approximately 89-96% of total public goods benefiting residents of the average French city. Finally, we simulate the effect of a reform increasing fiscal integration and find substantial welfare gains.
    Keywords: Local Public Service,Spillover Effect,Spatial General Equilibrium,Tiebout,Welfare Economics,State Government Subsidies
    Date: 2019–06
  8. By: Laura Conti (Bank of Italy); Daniela Mele (Bank of Italy); Vanni Mengotto (Bank of Italy); Eugenia Panicara (Bank of Italy); Roberto Rassu (Bank of Italy); Valentina Romano (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the local taxation on households in Italian provincial capitals between 2012 and 2015, the period immediately before a ceiling was imposed on the main local rates, relating it to a set of indicators available at the same geographical level. We provide information on regional, provincial and municipal duties imposed on a representative household, whose characteristics (regarding income, number and age of members, real estate holdings and consumption) remain unchanged throughout the country. The results show that taxation is higher for households living in the South, in regions under ordinary statutes (RSO) compared with those under special statutes (RSS), and in larger cities. Moreover, there is evidence of heavier taxation in places where local governments are (or have been) in financial distress or appear to be less efficient. In these areas, local taxation on households rose at a higher rate during the period covered by the analysis.
    Keywords: taxation on households, local taxation
    JEL: H31 H71
    Date: 2019–10
  9. By: Stonawski, Marcin Jan; Rogne, Adrian F.; Bang, Henrik; Christensen, Henning; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde
    Abstract: We study how the local concentration of ethnic minorities relates to natives’ likelihood of out- migration in the capital of Denmark. In US studies, a high or increasing proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in inner city neighborhoods is seen as the prime motivation for ‘white flight;’ White middle-class families moving towards racially and ethnically homogeneous suburbs. The relatively egalitarian Scandinavian setting offers a contrasting case, where inner cities are less deprived, and where minority groups primarily consist of immigrants and children of immigrants that have arrived over the past few decades. Using rich, population-wide, longitudinal administrative data over a twelve-year period, linked to exact coordinates on places of residence, we document how the geographical distribution of minorities within Copenhagen relates to native out-migration. We observe increasing out-migration among the native majority population from areas with high and increasing minority concentrations, largely supporting the hypothesis of a ‘native flight’ mobility pattern.
    Date: 2019–01–23
  10. By: Ushchev, Philip (National Research University); Zenou, Yves (Monash Universitiy)
    Abstract: Although the linear-in-means model is the workhorse model in empirical work on peer effects, its theoretical properties are understudied. In this study, we develop a social-norm model that provides a micro foundation of the linear-in-means model and investigate its properties. We show that individual outcomes may increase, decrease, or vary non-monotonically with the taste for conformity. Equilibria are usually inefficient and, to restore the first best, the planner needs to subsidize (tax) agents whose neighbors make efforts above (below) the social norms. Thus, giving more subsidies to more central agents is not necessarily efficient. We also discuss the policy implications of our model in terms of education and crime.
    Keywords: Social norms; Conformism; Local-average model; Welfare; Anti-conformism; Network formation
    JEL: D85 J15 Z13
    Date: 2019–11–18
  11. By: Paccoud, Antoine
    Abstract: This article investigates the ways in which the structure of the private ownership of property affects the operation of land and housing markets. It draws on detailed Land Registry data to identify the types of actors found at the top of the property wealth distribution in Dudelange, Luxembourg, and to gauge their respective influence on the production of the residential environment. While the top tail is made up of property developers, landowners and super-landlords, an analysis of the planning and land assembly processes for six large scale residential developments in the city since the 1970s shows that the production of housing is driven by a small group of tightly interconnected private landowners and property developers. The level of property wealth concentration in a given territory is thus not innocuous – it affects the production of the residential environment, especially when multiple property ownership is interlinked with the concentrated control over residential land. The study complements discussions on the relation between property, wealth and the production of housing that focus on homeowners, small-scale private landlords and the super-rich (on the consumption side) and, on the production side, on selected actors such as financialised property developers and public landowners.
    Keywords: Housing; Wealth; Property ownership; Property development; Land ownership; Landlordism
    JEL: Q15 L81
    Date: 2019–10–29
  12. By: Sato, Yasuhiro (University of Tokyo); Zenou, Yves (Monash University)
    Abstract: We develop a model in which ethnic minorities can either assimilate to the majority's norm or reject it by trading off higher productivity and wages with a greater social distance to their culture of origin. We show that "oppositional" ethnic minorities reside in more segregated areas, have worse outcomes (in terms of income) but are not necessarily worse off in terms of welfare than assimilated ethnic minorities who live in less segregated areas. We find that a policy that reduces transportation cost decreases rather than increases assimilation in cities. We also find that when there are more productivity spillovers between the two groups, ethnic minorities are more likely not to assimilate and to reject the majority's norm. Finally, we show that ethnic minorities tend to assimilate more in bigger and more expensive cities.
    Keywords: Identity; Agglomeration economies; Cities; Ethnic minorities; Welfare
    JEL: J15 R14 Z13
    Date: 2019–11–19
  13. By: Wessel, Nate; Farber, Steven
    Abstract: In this paper we assess the accuracy with which General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) schedule data can be used to measure accessibility by public transit as it varies over space and time. We use archived Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data from four North American transit agencies to produce a detailed reconstruction of actual transit vehicle movements over the course of five days in a format that allows for travel time estimation directly comparable to schedule-based GTFS. With travel times estimated on both schedule-based and retrospective networks, we compute and compare a variety of accessibility measures. We find that origin-based accessibility even when averaged over one-hour periods can vary widely between locations. Origins with lower scheduled access tend to produce less reliable estimates with more variability from hour to hour in real accessibility, while higher access zones seem to converge on an estimate 5-15\% lower than the schedule predicts. Such over- and under-predictions exhibit strong spatial patterns which should be of concern to those using accessibility metrics in statistical models. Momentary measures of accessibility are briefly discussed and found to be weakly related to momentary changes in real access. These findings bring into question the validity of some recent applications of GTFS data and point the way toward more robust methods for calculating accessibility.
    Date: 2018–12–17
  14. By: Naveen Kumar
    Abstract: I exploit a natural experiment in education policy in India to examine the effects of creating high-quality public schools. The "model" schools program established schools that admit students through an entrance exam. I estimate the effect of model schools on educational outcomes using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design based upon the entrance exam cutoffs. With a data set of over 63,000 students, I consider three dimensions: (i) academic achievement; (ii) educational attainment; and (iii) career choice. For academic achievement outcomes, attending a model school increases test scores in math by 0.38 standard deviations, in science by 0.26 sd, and in social science by 0.26 sd on average. Attending a model school also increases the probability of obtaining an A in tenth-grade by 20 percentage points. For educational attainment indicators, model schools increase the probability of joining pre-university by 11.5 percentage points. However, attending a model school has no effect on the choice of major in pre-university college. Furthermore, I estimate multiple local average treatment effects and find that model schools have a similar positive effect for students across the ability distribution. Lastly, the per-pupil expenditure in model schools is comparable to that of traditional public schools. Overall, this paper provides suggestive evidence that the quality of public schools can be raised but other barriers persist.
    JEL: H52 I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2019–11–24
  15. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the issue of the co-movement between residential real estate and commercial real estate using a newly developed database by the Bank if International Settlements. Our results point for the existence of a unique common nonlinear trend in the five countries analysed.
    Keywords: housing market, macropudential policies, nonlinearities
    JEL: E21 E51 R20
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Stepinski, Tomasz; Dmowska, Anna
    Abstract: Analyzing racial distribution and its temporal change in American urban areas is an active area of research. Most attention focused on assessing levels of racial segregation at the spatial scale of a metropolitan area. In this paper, we present an analysis of 1990-2010 changes to racial diversity and segregation on a much smaller spatial scale of an urban census tract. To access time-standardized racial information at the tract and at the census block scales we use multiyear compatible high-resolution population grids. Indices of racial diversity and segregation are calculated for over 30,000 tracts pooled from 41 metropolitan areas. Statistical analysis of this dataset reveals that during the 1990-2010 period urban tracts increased their diversity in line with diversity increases of entire metro areas, but unlike metros, they also increased their levels of segregation. We hypothesize that an increased tendency for the residences of people of the same race to spatially aggregate on the tract scale is the result of individuals exercising preferences regarding their neighbors in reaction to the nationwide increase in diversity of the American population. The study also re-derives diversity and segregation indices from the first principles of the information theory, highlights the need to think about the issue of racial diversity/segregation in terms of spatial patterns, and uses one-person-per-dot maps to connect diversity/segregation indices to actual racial patterns.
    Date: 2019–05–03
  17. By: Parenti, Angela (University of Pisa); Tealdi, Cristina (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the effects of Switzerland implementing the Schengen agreement on cross-border commuting from regions of neighbouring countries. As vehicles are allowed to cross borders without stopping and residents in border areas are granted freedom to cross borders away from fixed checkpoints, commuting costs are severely reduced. Using data from the European Labour Force Survey, we estimate that the individual probability to cross-border commute to Switzerland in response to this policy has increased among inter-regional commuters in the range between 3 and 6 percentage points, according to different model specifications. Our result is particularly important due the meaningful policy implications, in a time in which the Schengen agreement is under scrutiny and at risk of termination.
    Keywords: Schengen agreement, labour mobility, commuting costs, policy change
    JEL: D04 J61 R10 R23
    Date: 2019–11
  18. By: Rezki, Jahen Fachrul
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of political competition on local government performance in Indonesia. This study uses a new database that covers 427 districts in Indonesia, from 2000 to 2013. In Indonesia, local governments are largely responsible for fulfilling basic service delivery and, in this regard, they are extremely powerful. Political competition is measured using the Herfindahl Hirschman Concentration Index for the district parliament election. This variable is potentially endogenous, because political competition is likely to be non-random and correlated with unobservable variables. To solve this problem, I use the lag of political competition for neighbouring districts within the same province, as well as the political competition from the 1955 general election, as instrumental variables for political competition. The degree of political competition has been found to boost real Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) per capita by 1.9%. Furthermore, a one standard deviation increase in political competition would increase RGDP growth by approximately 0.81%. The results also support the findings of previous studies, which have found that stiffer political competition is associated with higher public spending (e.g. infrastructure spending) and pro-business policies.
    Date: 2018–11–23
  19. By: Defri Kurniawan (Master of Applied Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on regional economic growth and also investigate its influence on regional income disparity, particularly among regencies and municipalities in West Sumatra Province during the period from 2011 until 2017. The panel data model is applied on this study involving 19 (nineteen) regencies and municipalities in West Sumatra Province. As the results, fiscal decentralization which devolves the authority to collect local own revenue (PAD) prove not to promote distinguishable regional economic growth and also it contributes positively to regional income disparity. Conversely, the combination of local own revenue and intergovernmental transfer affect the positive contribution to regional economic growth and also narrowing the gap of regional income disparity. This research suggests that the intergovernmental transfer as an implication of the fiscal decentralization is still required by the regional government (cities and regencies) to support their financial resources, particularly in West Sumatra Province case. Moreover, allocating more budget on capital expenditure exhibits beneficial result to increase regional economic growth.
    Keywords: Fiscal decentralization, income disparity, regional, Indonesia
    JEL: H3
    Date: 2019–11
  20. By: Abilio, Carolina (Society and Technology Study Center (CEST USP))
    Abstract: The use of the bicycle in the city of São Paulo for purposes of mobility is not a new phenomenon, much less brought and/or based on existing infrastructure. Cyclists have faced the city streets for more than 10 years, and have had growing influence in the participation of public mobility policies concerning cycling. However, the inclusion of cycling as a key element in the design of municipal policies during the years 2012-2016 gave academic, social, economic and cultural visibility to the bicycle. This emergence gave way to a wave of new cyclists and affected the urban bike scene in the city. This research contemplated two objectives: the first one was to understand how the bicycle is used by the various social actors of the city, and its impact regarding lifestyles, sociabilities, appropriation of urban space, and the intrinsically corporal aspect that tangents the cycling experience. The second objective was the differentiated empirical construction of a contemporary research problem guided by the New Mobilities Paradigm and the Mobile Methods, supported by the recent field of knowledge of the Sociology of Mobility. Unlike the predominant discourse relatedto the bicycle, in which the "new" modal is associated with freedom, simplicity, economy, ease, and practicality, the results found point out that this is only one facet of the experience of cyclists in a city with a high index of inequality as São Paulo,circumscribed to a group of cyclists that circulate in certain social spaces. Making use of the concept of motility arising from a critical view based on the New Mobilities Paradigm, it is argued that although the bicycle has been associated in recent years with freedom and right to the city by its users, in many cases the city experience by cycling is aggressive, uncomfortable, dangerous and harmful to health. The bicycle is the only instrument through which an impoverished portion of the population, living in peripheral regions, is able to access work, leisure, goods, and services of the city. On the other hand, residents of central districts enjoy the largest percentage of existing bicycle infrastructure and use the bicycle as another mode of transportation in their range of options. The research also enabled some methodological innovations, in the form of a tool developed for data collection. Finally, when thinking about the planning of a public policy that concerns the Urban Mobility System, it is necessary to pinpoint the bicycle as one more device inserted within a collective transportation system that did not include the exponential growth of the city and its metropolitan region, making it disconnected, obsolete and at the margin of the daily needs ofits users. In order for the bicycle's benefits to impact the city's population on a large scale, it is essential that it be designed and planned as an element adding to the complex mobility network of São Paulo –amid transport rail systems, buses, private cars, and walk –, and not simply as a tool that serves this systems.
    Date: 2018–09–27
  21. By: Diana McCallum; Christina Tuttle; Jeffrey Max; Brian Gill; Philip Gleason
    Abstract: This brief examines how school choice options, including charter schools, vouchers, magnet schools, district-wide choice, and inter-district choice, affect the racial and economic integration of students.
    Keywords: school choice, charter schools, authorizers, racial integration, school composition, education
  22. By: Lino, Jayne; Rohat, Guillaume; Kirshen, Paul; Dao, Hy
    Abstract: Climate change will impact cities’ infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. An emerging research field, using the latest global socioeconomic and climate scenarios – namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration (RCPs) – is exploring how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society’s ability to cope with climate change impacts. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts’ elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.
    Date: 2019–08–13
  23. By: Crescenzi, Riccardo; Giua, Mara
    Abstract: To what extent do regions in different member states of the European Union benefit from Cohesion Policy? A spatial regression discontinuity design approach offers distinct but fully comparable estimates of regional impacts for each individual member state. Cohesion Policy has a positive European Union-wide impact on regional growth and employment. However, a large part of the growth bonus is concentrated in Germany, while impacts on employment are confined to the UK. The picture in Southern Europe is less rosy. In Italy, positive impacts on employment do not survive the Great Recession, while in Spain economic growth benefits are limited to the recovery period.
    Keywords: Cohesion policy; European Union; Regions; Growth; employment; ES/M010341/1; Centre for Economic Performance
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–10–04
  24. By: Asplund, Disa (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Pyddoke, Roger (Research Programme in Transport Economics)
    Abstract: Studies of cities which successfully have shifted mode choice from car to more sustainable modes, suggest that coordinated packages of mutually reinforcing policy instruments are needed. Congestion charges and parking fees can be important parts of such packages. This paper aims to examine the introduction of welfare optimal congestion charges and parking fees in a model calibrated to Uppsala, a small city in Sweden. The results suggest that welfare optimal congestion charges in Uppsala are as high as EUR 3.0 in the peak hours and EUR 1.5 in the off-peak. In a rough cost-benefit analysis it is shown that the introduction of congestion charges in Uppsala are welfare improving if operating costs of congestion charges are proportional to city population size (compared to Gothenburg). The model can be used to assess when it is worthwhile to introduce congestion pricing.
    Keywords: Congestion charges; Parking; Pricing; Demand; Optimization; Urban; Welfare
    JEL: R10 R41 R48
    Date: 2019–11–21
  25. By: Michael P. Leung
    Abstract: This paper studies inference in models of discrete choice with social interactions when the data consists of a single large network. We provide theoretical justification for the use of spatial and network HAC variance estimators in applied work, the latter constructed by using network path distance in place of spatial distance. Toward this end, we prove new central limit theorems for network moments in a large class of social interactions models. The results are applicable to discrete games on networks and dynamic models where social interactions enter through lagged dependent variables. We illustrate our results in an empirical application and simulation study.
    Date: 2019–11
  26. By: Laurynas Narusevicius (Bank of Lithuania); Tomas Ramanauskas; Laura Gudauskaitė (Bank of Lithuania); Tomas Reichenbachas (Bank of Lithuania)
    Abstract: Timely monitoring of the housing market developments in Lithuania is one of the key elements in the analysis framework of the macroprudential authority aiming to contribute to financial stability in Lithuania. In this paper, we addressed three important questions related to Lithuanian house prices, namely, whether house prices are under- or over valuated, which explanatory variables have the biggest impact on the growth of house prices and what the future development of the Lithuanian house price index could be. Three separate modelling and forecasting exercises were performed in order to tackle these questions. The first exercise employs the vector error correction modelling (VECM) approach to assess under- or overvaluation of the house prices. We then use an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to evaluate which explanatory variables have the biggest impact on house price growth. As the last exercise, we develop a suite of models that are used to forecast future development of the house price index. The analysis presented in this paper may be viewed as a further step towards more formalised modelling and forecasting of the Lithuanian house price index.
    Keywords: House price index, fundamental value, time series models, forecasting, forecast combination
    JEL: C22 C32 C53 E37 R30
    Date: 2019–11–19
  27. By: Tobias Ebert (University of Mannheim); Jochen E. Gebauer (University of Mannheim, University of Copenhagen); Thomas Brenner (Philipps-University Marburg); Wiebke Bleidorn (University of California at Davis); Samuel D. Gosling (University of Texas at Austin, University of Melbourne); Jeff Potter (Atof Inc., Cambridge, MA.); P. Jason Rentfrow (University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: There is growing evidence that personality traits are spatially clustered across geographic regions and that regionally aggregated personality scores are related to political, economic, social, and health outcomes. However, much of the evidence comes from research that has relied on methods that are ill-suited for working with spatial data. Consequently, the validity and generalizability of that work is unclear. The present work addresses two main challenges of working with spatial data (i.e., Modifiable Aerial Unit Problem and spatial dependencies) and evaluates data-analytic techniques designed to tackle those challenges. Using analytic techniques designed for spatial data, we offer a practical guideline for working with spatial data in psychological research. Specifically, we investigate the robustness of regional personality differences and their correlates within the U.S. (Study 1: N = 3,387,303) and Germany (Study 2: N = 110,029). To account for the Modifiable Aerial Unit Problem, we apply a mapping approach that visualizes distributional patterns without aggregating to a higher level and examine the correlates of regional personality scores across multiple levels of spatial aggregation. To account for spatial dependencies, we examine the correlates of regional personality scores using spatial econometric models. Overall, our results suggest that regional personality differences are robust and can be reliably studied across countries and spatial levels. At the same time, the results also show that ignoring the methodological challenges of spatial data can have serious consequences for research concerned with regional personality differences.
    Keywords: Geographical Psychology, Personality, Spatial Analysis
    Date: 2019–11
  28. By: Aliprantis, Dionissi (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Martin, Hal (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Phillips, David (University of Notre Dame)
    Abstract: Landlords in high-opportunity neighborhoods screen out tenants using vouchers. In our correspondence experiment, signaling voucher status cuts landlord responses in half. This voucher penalty increases with posted rent and varies little with signals of tenant quality and race. We repeat the experiment after a policy change and test how landlords respond to raising voucher payment limits by $450 per month in high-rent neighborhoods. Most landlords do not change their screening behavior; those who do respond are few and operate at small scale. Our results suggest a successful, systematic policy of moving to opportunity would require more direct engagement with landlords.
    Keywords: landlord; opportunity neighborhood; Housing Choice Voucher; mobility; Small Area Fair Market Rent; SAFMR;
    Date: 2019–11–21
  29. By: Antoine Guironnet (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée)
    Abstract: Departing from localized accounts of the role of local governments in the financialization of the built environment, this article outlines their contribution to the process through increasing attendance at global real estate fairs such as the Marché international des professionnels de l'immobilier (Mipim), where they showcase investment opportunities. Following urban political economy approaches centered on the transcalar intermediations of financialization, Mipim is conceptualized as a site of the circulation of the expectations of investors that involves spatial and temporal dimensions. Based on a comparison of two local authorities in France, namely the Grand Lyon metropolitan authority and Saint-Ouen municipality, the article examines the motives, modalities, and outcomes of their attendance. If both committed to the event despite opposite political agendas, the impact of Mipim has been more significant in the case of the Grand Lyon, where the metropolitan authority adjusted not only the type of showcased projects over the years, but also their content as well as its local planning strategy. The article explains why and how, and discusses under which conditions Mipim is not a mere display showcase, but instead can actively contribute to the adjustment of urban space and governance to the requirements of financial markets.
    Keywords: Global real estate fairs,financialization,urban development projects,local government,Mipim
    Date: 2019–06–17
  30. By: Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chiu, Alvin (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Hong Kong, China’s housing market witnessed dramatic appreciations recently, with the price index for private domestic housing units being 3 times higher than 10 years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors. By providing a theoretical model and empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices, we find that changes in housing price index reinforce price trends in the long term. Hong Kong, China’s dollar quantitative easing, and the gross domestic product of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are positively related to housing prices and negatively to lending. The inability to increase supplies in response to rising demand since 2003 has also much to do with the skyrocketing prices. Moreover, mortgage-to-total loans value is shrinking due to the unaffordability of housing units at current prices. This trend has to be tackled in time, otherwise the PRC may incur severe consequences similar to Japan’s experience in the 1990s.
    Keywords: housing bubble; housing prices; housing market; quantitative easing (QE); monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E51 R31
    Date: 2019–05–09
  31. By: Goerge, Robert
    Abstract: This handbook Is intended be a resource for both those who are providing data (government agency leaders) and those internal or external to those organizations who are requesting data for analytics projects particularly at the state or local level. Over the past 20 years, there has been a recognition that government administrative data (criminal justice schools, employment, human services, education, revenue) is an important resource for building evidence—from conducting rigorous evaluation to providing key descriptive analyses to improve quality, monitor caseloads, understand population composition (Commmission on Evidence-based Policymaking 2017).
    Date: 2019–06–12
  32. By: HONDA Keiichiro; KAWANISHI Takuya
    Abstract: This study verifies the effect of the central city revitalization policy on commerce in Kumamoto. The effects of central city revitalization policy, based on the Act on Vitalization in City Centers amended in 2006, are only followed up in an announcement by the local government, and the announcement is mainly based on simple before and after comparison. By limiting our study to a specific area, we are able to analyze the causal effects of this policy more precisely. We focus on Kumamoto city in this study. Kumamoto city is one of the 12 areas that has been certified by the Cabinet office in all phases of the central city revitalization policy from the first phase to the current third phase. As a representative example of medium-scale local cities and a city that will support the future of the Kyushu economy, empirical verification of the effect of the policy is highly anticipated. We use the governmental statistics of establishment-level micro data and analyze the impact of policy on several commercial outcomes. Using the Difference-In-Differences method, no significant positive effect has been identified for any outcome. Despite the local government announcement claiming positive effects, mainly in terms of increased traffic in the area, it is difficult to support the idea that this effect has led to the revitalization of local commerce.
    Date: 2019–11
  33. By: Giuseppe Albanese (Bank of Italy); Raffaello Bronzini (Bank of Italy); Luciano Lavecchia (Bank of Italy); Giovanni Soggia (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the regional policies for innovative start-ups implemented in Italy in the years 2012-2018. The data were gathered from a survey carried out by Bank of Italy branches in 2018, which were later updated using several other sources. The findings show that the Regions supported a significant number of projects (101, of which 75 focused only on innovative start-ups) and allocated a large volume of funds (€515 million, of which 340 for start-ups alone). The financial resources were allocated very differently across the Regions, with Lazio, Sardinia and the province of Trento allocating the largest amount of funds in per capita terms. This tends to reflect the policymakers’ preferences rather than differences in the economic structure of the geographical areas.
    Keywords: start-ups, regional policies, innovation policy, innovation
    JEL: H2 L5 R0 R3
    Date: 2019–10
  34. By: Franziska Hampf
    Abstract: Based on high-quality skill data from PIAAC, this paper provides evidence on the effect of schooling on labor-market relevant cognitive skills. For identification, I exploit the staggered introduction of a compulsory ninth grade in basic track schools across German states, as well as a simultaneous reform that introduced short school years to harmonize the start of the school year nation-wide. Instrumental-variable results suggest that the additional year of compulsory schooling increased numeracy skills of basic-track students by about 0.2 standard deviations. Using superior skill data, the results contrast with previous evidence of zero skill effects of compulsory schooling in Germany
    Keywords: Returns to education, compulsory schooling reform, skills, PIAAC
    JEL: I21 I24 C26
    Date: 2019
  35. By: Jeffrey Max; Christina Tuttle; Philip Gleason; Diana McCallum; Brian Gill
    Abstract: This brief describes how two types of school choice—charter schools and private school vouchers—affect student achievement in traditional public schools.
    Keywords: school choice, charter, authorizers, student achievement, vouchers
  36. By: Constant, Amelie (Princeton University, and UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This paper provides a state-of-the-art literature review about research that aims to explain the return, repeat, circular and onward migration of the highly-skilled migrants around the world. After it describes the status quo in the knowledge economy and the international race for talent, it presents the relevant theories and concepts of migration in the social sciences and how these theories accommodate the phenomena of return, repeat and onward migration. A special section is devoted to selection. The chapter then summarizes, evaluates, and juxtaposes existing empirical evidence related to theoretical predictions. Observables such as education, income, gender and home country as well as unobservables such as ability, social capital and negotiating skills play a strong role in influencing return, repeat and onward migration decisions. Yet, there is no consensus on the direction of the effect. The chapter discusses shortcomings and limitations along with policy lessons. It concludes by highlighting holes in the literature and the need for better data.
    Keywords: return, circular, onward, migration, international labor migration, knowledge economy, high-skilled, public policy
    JEL: F22 J15 J18 J20 J61 O15
    Date: 2019–10–18
  37. By: Bradlow, Benjamin H.
    Abstract: Transitions to democracy promise equal political power. But political ruptures carry no guarantee that democracy can overcome the accumulated inequalities of history. In South Africa, the transition to democracy shifted power from a racial minority in ways that suggested an unusually high probability of material change. This article analyzes the limits of public power after democratic transitions. Why has the post-Apartheid local state in Johannesburg been unable to achieve a spatially inclusive distribution of public goods despite a political imperative for both spatial and fiscal redistribution? I rely on interviews and archival research, conducted in Johannesburg between 2015 and 2018. Because the color line created a sharp distinction between political and economic power, traditional white elites required non-majoritarian and covert strategies that translated their structural power into effective power. The cumulative effect of these “weapons of the strong” was a form of institutional arbitrage that led the mostly black-led local state to exercise forbearance towards largely white wealthy residents’ associations and property developers. Through these strategies, elites repurposed institutional reforms for redistribution to instead reproduce the city’s inequalities.
    Date: 2019–05–31
  38. By: Frick, Susanne A.; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: Policy-makers and academics frequently emphasize a positive link between city size and economic growth. The empirical literature on the relationship, however, is scarce and uses rough indicators for the size for a country’s cities, while ignoring factors that are increasingly considered to shape the relationship. In this paper, we employ a panel of 113 countries between 1980 and 2010 to explore whether (1) there are certain city sizes that are growth enhancing and (2) how additional factors highlighted in the literature impact the city size/growth relationship. The results suggest a non-linear relationship which is dependent on the country’s size. In contrast to the prevailing view that large cities are growth-inducing, for the majority of countries relatively small cities of up to 3 million inhabitants are more conducive to economic growth. A large share of the urban population in cities with more than 10 million inhabitants is only growth promoting in countries with an urban population of 28.5 million and more. In addition, the relationship is highly context dependent: a high share of industries that benefit from agglomeration economies, a well-developed urban infrastructure, and an adequate level of governance effectiveness allow countries to take advantage of agglomeration benefits from larger cities.
    Keywords: city size; economic growth; enabling factors
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2018–03–07
  39. By: Bilgili, Özge (Utrecht University); Volante, Louis (UNU-MERIT, and Brock University); Klinger, Don A. (University of Waikato); Siegel, Melissa (UNU-MERIT, and SBE, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Immigrant and refugee students consistently demonstrate a performance disadvantage when one considers their achievement against non-immigrant students. This paper examines the double- and triple-disadvantages that characterise immigrant and refugee student groups. To highlight the different levels of adversity they face, not only to socioeconomic background characteristics but also migration trajectory related factors are mentioned. Next, the paper synthesises trends from policies and practices associated with more favourable student outcomes. Concrete examples are discussed from the cases of Canada, New Zealand and the European Union. Finally, implications for policymakers, educational leaders, and schools are discussed. The paper concludes with a critical view on simply policy borrowing and calls for contextually and culturally responsive adaptation of promising policies and the implementation of new policies that effectively engage communities and enhance the skills of educators.
    Keywords: Education Policy, Student Achievement, Immigrant Students, Human Development
    JEL: O15 Z18 Z19
    Date: 2019–11–19
  40. By: Isabella Buber-Ennser; Judith Kohlenberger; Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Rengs
    Abstract: Given the exposure to stressors in their home countries, during their migration and in the phase after arrival, refugees are particularly vulnerable to mental health problems. At the same time, their access to adequate healthcare and other social infrastructure might be hampered by factors such as lack of knowledge as well as cultural and language barriers. In addition to other factors, this reduces their ability to take part in social activities as well as their integration into the labour market of the host societies. We examine the prevalence of mental disorders in the refugee population from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria who arrived in Austria recently, drawing on data from a refugee survey conducted between December 2017 and April 2018 in Austria with a specific focus on Vienna, Salzburg, Graz, Linz and Innsbruck (FIMAS+INTEGRATION). We found a high share of refugees (32%) to have moderate or severe mental health problems. In particular, young refugees (15-34 years) show higher risk levels. When investigating the effects of stressors on the mental health situation, we found a positive association with e.g. experienced discrimination in Austria and the fear for partners and children left behind. In contrast, the results show a negative correlation for a couple of mitigating factors that foster resilience, i.e. proficiency in the German language, being employed (including volunteer work), having more supportive relationships and satisfaction with the housing situation. Disclaimer Research for this paper was financed by the Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Project No. 17166). Support provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank for this research is gratefully acknowledged.
    Keywords: refugees, mental health, social integration, labour market integration
    JEL: I10 J15 F22
    Date: 2019–11
  41. By: Elbers, Benjamin
    Abstract: An important topic in the study of segregation are comparisons across space and time. Theil’s information index H is frequently used to study segregation. In its interpretation, H is sometimes treated a “margin-free” measure of segregation, which implies that the H index is not sensitive to marginal changes in the size of groups (for instance, racial groups) or organizational units (for instance, schools). This conclusion is only partially true, which complicates the understanding of differences in segregation levels across time and space. Regarding this issue, the paper makes three contributions. First, in line with arguments presented by Mora and Ruiz-Castillo (2009; 2011), it is shown that the closely related M index has some conceptual advantages over the H index. Additionally, the relationship between the M and H indices is further clarified. Second, by combining a method first introduced by Karmel and Maclachlan (1988) with the advantages of the M index, it is shown that a decomposition of changes in the M index into several components is possible: one component captures changes that are introduced due to the changing marginal distributions, and one component captures changes that are due to structural increases or decreases in segregation. Both of these can be further decomposed to study the precise sources of changing segregation. Third, the decomposition is further refined by taking into account the appearance or disappearance of new units and groups, and by distinguishing comparisons across time from those of across space. The paper concludes with a study of occupational gender segregation in the U.S.
    Date: 2018–12–21
  42. By: Emmanuelle Leturque (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mathieu Sanch-Maritan (CREAM - Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)
    Abstract: This article explore how the relation between productivity and local city-size can be mitigated by pollution. More specifically, we estimate agglomeration economies considering a new source of heterogeneity among industries: the degree of pollution. Due to pollution perception acting as a dispersion force, we expect net agglomeration economies to be lower for polluting firms. In fact, polluting firms may anticipate that households and other firms are reluctant to locate near sources of pollution. In this paper, we exploit spatial data on sectoral emissions for a large number of air pollutants. We define a continuous variable of pollution that varies across sectors and employment zones. Our finding are twofold. First we find that agglomeration economies are lower for polluting sectors. Second we find that negative agglomeration are observed for some key pollutant such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, lead or sulfur dioxide.
    Keywords: Agglomeration economies,Polluting sectors,Negative externalities
    Date: 2019–11–01
  43. By: Lin, Nung-yao; Chen, Shih-Pei; Wang, Sean H.; Yeh, Calvin
    Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a web GIS platform created expressly for exploring and researching a set of 63,497 historical maps and illustrations extracted from 4,000 titles of Chinese local gazetteers. We layer these images with a published, geo-referenced collection of Land Survey Maps of China (1903-1948), which includes the earliest large-scaled maps of major cities and regions in China that are produced with modern cartographic techniques. By bringing together historical illustrations depicting spatial configurations of localities and the earliest modern cartographic maps, researchers of Chinese history can study the different spatial epistemologies represented in both collections. We report our workflow for creating this web GIS platform, starting from identifying and extracting visual materials from local gazetteers, tagging them with keywords and categories to facilitate content search, to georeferencing them based on their source locations. We also experimented with neural networks to train a tagger with positive results. Finally, we display them in the web GIS platform with two modes, Images in Map (IIM) and Maps in Map (MIM), and with content- and location-based filtering. These features together enable researchers easy and quick exploration and comparison of these two large sets of geospatial and visual materials of China.
    Date: 2019–07–09
  44. By: Shannon M. Monnat (Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University)
    Abstract: Over the past two decades deaths from opioids and other drugs have grown to be a major U.S. population health problem, but the magnitude of the crisis varies across the U.S., and explanations for widespread geographic variation in the severity of the drug crisis are limited. An emerging debate is whether geographic differences in drug mortality rates are driven mostly by opioid supply factors or socioeconomic distress. To explore this topic, I examined relationships between county-level non-Hispanic white drug mortality rates for 2000-02 and 2014-16 and several socioeconomic and opioid supply measures across the urban-rural continuum and within different rural labor markets. Net of county demographic composition, average non-Hispanic white drug mortality rates are highest and increased the most in large metro counties. In 2014-16, the most rural counties had an average of 6.2 fewer deaths per 100,000 population than large metro counties. Economic distress, family distress, persistent population loss, and opioid supply factors (exposure to prescription opioids and fentanyl) are all associated with significantly higher drug mortality rates. However, the magnitude of associations varies across the urban-rural continuum and across different types of rural labor markets. In rural counties, economic distress appears to be a stronger predictor than opioid supply measures of drug mortality rates, but in urban counties, opioid supply factors are more strongly associated with drug mortality rates than is economic distress. Ultimately, the highest drug mortality rates are disproportionately concentrated in economically distressed mining and service sector dependent counties with high exposure to prescription opioids and fentanyl.
    Keywords: health, mortality, urban-rural continuum, inequality, economic disadvantage, opioids
    JEL: I1 I3 J21 K32 R1
    Date: 2019–01
  45. By: Cheshire, Paul; Carozzi, Felipe
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2019–07–12
  46. By: Mazumder, Bhashkar (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Rosales, Maria Fernanda (Rutgers University); Triyana, Margaret (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
    Abstract: We analyze the long-run and intergenerational effects of a large-scale school building project (INPRES) that took place in Indonesia between 1974 and 1979. Specifically, we link the geographic rollout of INPRES to longitudinal data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey covering two generations. We find that individuals exposed to the program have better health later in life along multiple measures. We also find that the children of those exposed also experience improved health and educational outcomes and that these effects are generally stronger for maternal exposure than paternal exposure. We find some evidence that household resources, neighborhood quality, and assortative mating may explain a portion of our results. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the long-run and multigenerational benefits when evaluating the costs and benefits of social interventions in a middle-income country.
    Keywords: Intergenerational transmission of human capital; education; adult wellbeing; income
    JEL: I38 J13 O15
    Date: 2019–10–28
  47. By: Ole Agersnap; Amalie Sofie Jensen; Henrik Kleven
    Abstract: We study the effects of welfare generosity on international migration using a series of large changes in welfare benefits for immigrants in Denmark. The first change, implemented in 2002, lowered benefits for immigrants from outside the EU by about 50%, with no changes for natives or immigrants from inside the EU. The policy was later repealed and re-introduced. The differential treatment of immigrants from inside and outside the EU, and of different types of non-EU immigrants, allows for a quasi-experimental research design. We find sizeable effects: the benefit reduction reduced the net flow of immigrants by about 5,000 people per year, or 3.7 percent of the stock of treated immigrants, and the subsequent repeal of the policy reversed the effect almost exactly. Our study provides some of the first causal evidence on the widely debated “welfare magnet” hypothesis. While there are many non-welfare factors that matter for migration decisions, our evidence implies that, conditional on moving, the generosity of the welfare system is important for destination choices.
    JEL: H20 H31 J61
    Date: 2019–11
  48. By: Moradi, Pegah
    Abstract: Leading up to and following the 2016 American presidential election, “White working class” employment and political agency has become particularly salient. A simultaneous discussion on the role of automation in unemployment complicates the political narrative; by one estimate, 47% of American jobs are at risk of computerization (Frey and Osborne, 2013). This study analyzes how occupational automation corresponds with racial and ethnic demographics within occupational groups from both a historical and contemporary perspective. I find that throughout American industrialization, non-White and immigrant workers shifted to low-wage, unskilled work because of the political and social limitations imposed upon these groups. In the context of today’s AI-driven automation, I find that White workers are more heavily affected by automatability than other racial groups. Conversely, however, I found that the proportion of White workers in an occupation is negatively correlated with an occupation’s automatability. I conclude with suggestions for a susceptibility-based approach to predicting employment outcomes from AI-driven automation.
    Date: 2019–04–01
  49. By: Lekkas, Peter; Howard, Natasha J; Stankov, Ivana; daniel, mark; Paquet, Catherine
    Abstract: Neighbourhoods are social enclaves. And, from an epidemiological vantage there is substantive research examining how social traits of neighbourhoods affect health. However, this research has often focused on the effects of social deprivation. Less attention has been given to social fragmentation (SF), a construct aligned with the notions of lesser: social cohesion, social capital, collective functioning, and social isolation. Concurrently, there has been limited research that has described the spatial and temporal patterning of neighbourhood-level social traits. With a focus on SF the main aims of this paper were to model and describe the time-varying and spatial nature of SF. Conceptually, this research was informed by ‘thinking in time’ and by the ‘lifecourse-of-place’ perspective. While, from an analytical perspective, a longitudinal (3-time points over 10-years) neighbourhood database was created for the metropolitan region of Adelaide, Australia. Latent Transition Analysis was then used to model the developmental profile of SF where neighbourhoods were proxied by ‘suburbs’, and the measurement model for SF was formed of 9-conceptually related census-based indicators. A four-class, nominal-level latent status model of SF was identified: class-A=low SF; class-B=mixed-level SF/inner urban; class-C=mixed-level SF/peri-urban; and class-D=high SF. Class-A and -D neighbourhoods were the most prevalent at all time points. And, while certain neighbourhoods were inferred to have changed their SF class across time, most neighbourhoods were characterised by intransience.
    Date: 2019–07–30
  50. By: Amanda Carmignani (Bank of Italy); Guido de Blasio (Bank of Italy); Cristina Demma (Bank of Italy); Alessio D'Ignazio (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The paper investigates whether firms have better access to bank credit in areas with a larger degree of urbanization. It uses bank-firm data drawn from the Credit Register maintained at the Bank of Italy to devise an indicator of ease of access to credit. The paper proposes an instrumental variable strategy that uses as instruments past population density and urbanization driven by considerations of political economy. The results show that urbanization affects access to credit positively for construction firms, whose collateral greatly benefits from thicker real estate markets. No impact is found for service and manufacturing firms.
    Keywords: surbanization, access to credit
    JEL: G21 R11 R51
    Date: 2019–06
  51. By: Stephany, Fabian
    Abstract: Trust explains the functioning of markets, institutions or society as a whole. It is a key element in almost every commercial transaction over time and might be one of the main explanations of economic success and development. In Europe, the determinants of (generalized) trust have been investigated in the past. Most scholars have focused on aggregate (national) levels of trust. However, it can be assumed that driving forces, which foster or diminish trust, act at a sub-national level. Regional clusters remain undetected. With the use of the European Social Survey 6 and modern spatial diagnostics, this work examines the individual and regional determinants of trust in 88 European NUTS1 regions in 26 countries. There are two main findings. First, wealth, linguistic fragmentation, and religious ideologies shape trust on a regional level, education, income, and membership in associations foster trust on an individual level. Secondly, the study unravels regional dispersions in different types of "trust regimes" in Europe. Regional clusters of generalized trust are confirmed by spatial diagnostics. The "regionality" of trust could be of importance for future targeted policy making.
    Date: 2019–08–25
  52. By: Zigerell, Lawrence J. Jr.
    Abstract: A widely-cited study reported evidence that White Americans perceive there to be more discrimination in the United States today against Whites than against Blacks. However, the opposite of this pattern was detected in preregistered analyses of data from the American National Election Studies 2016 Time Series Study and from a 2017 national nonprobability survey. The relatively small percentages of White Americans in these surveys who rated anti-White discrimination to be more extreme or more frequent than anti-Black discrimination in the United States today suggest that White Americans' political and social attitudes have more potential than previously estimated to become more conservative due to increased perceived discrimination against Whites.
    Date: 2019–04–16
  53. By: Kate Ambler (International Food Policy Research Institute); Susan Godlonton (Williams College); María P. Recalde (The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: We conduct an artefactual field experiment with farmers in endogenously formed groups in rural Malawi to investigate social influence in risk taking. Our experiment minimizes influence through social learning and social image channels. Treatments vary whether individuals observe the behavior of a formally elected leader, an external leader, or a random peer. Results show that peers are most influential, followed by formal leaders, and then external leaders. Exploratory analysis suggests that farmers follow peers because they extract information from their choices and share risks with them; while other forms of social utility are gained from following the example of leaders.
    Keywords: peer effects, risk taking, lab-in-the-field, agriculture, Malawi
    JEL: C9 D8 O13 Q12
    Date: 2019–11–22
  54. By: Michael P. Leung
    Abstract: This paper studies causal inference in randomized experiments under network interference. Most existing models of interference posit that treatments assigned to alters only affect the ego's response through a low-dimensional exposure mapping, which only depends on units within some known network radius around the ego. We propose a substantially weaker "approximate neighborhood interference" (ANI) assumption, which allows treatments assigned to alters far from the ego to have a small, but potentially nonzero, impact on the ego's response. Unlike the exposure mapping model, we can show that ANI is satisfied in well-known models of social interactions. Despite its generality, inference in a single-network setting is still possible under ANI, as we prove that standard inverse-probability weighting estimators can consistently estimate treatment and spillover effects and are asymptotically normal. For practical inference, we propose a new conservative variance estimator based on a network bootstrap and suggest a data-dependent bandwidth using the network diameter. Finally, we illustrate our results in a simulation study and empirical application.
    Date: 2019–11
  55. By: Wessel, Nate
    Abstract: The study of accessibility - the ease of reaching destinations - by public transport has made huge advances thanks to the availability of standardized, routable transit schedule data. The General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) has provided researchers with a vast trove of machine-readable data allowing for highly detailed spatio-temporal modelling of scheduled transit operations. Yet it is well established that in the real-world schedules are imperfect - vehicles often run late, get bunched, miss transfers, arrive too full for anyone to board, and otherwise behave in predictably unpredictable ways. Schedule data alone cannot possibly account for this distinctly stochastic component of much transit service, which to date has been considered separate from accessibility analysis under the umbrella of ``reliability''. This dissertation takes the perspective that transit service is reliably unreliable and will continue to be so until humans are taken out of the equation. Detailed observations of actual service can be used to construct more realistic models for estimating travel times and thus accessibility via transit. Chapter 2 introduces a novel method of converting a detailed GPS record of transit fleet locations into a retrospective GTFS package. This backward-looking "schedule'' format allows the same tools developed for schedule-based GTFS analysis to be applied in Chapter 3 to a more accurate depiction of actual transit accessibility. The findings indicate that models of transit accessibility based on schedule data alone tend to produce substantial overestimates of accessibility and systematic spatial errors by failing to account for normal irregularities in service provision. Chapter 4 points toward a way of better suiting available GTFS analysis tools to actual transit service by addressing the problem of imperfect information in modelled route choice. The travel time implications for a large minority of trips are shown to be substantial. Transit accessibility research has come a long way in the last decade and has a long way yet to go. Models based on schedule data alone should give way in many cases to models based on service as actually provided, acknowledging that schedules may guide but rarely constrain the transit services that passengers actually use every day.
    Date: 2019–05–08
  56. By: Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the complexity of, and the interrelationships between, two important aspects of integration of refugees in Austria, namely labour market integration and social integration. While labour market integration is captured in terms of being employed as compared to being unemployed or inactive, social integration distinguishes between social networks and their ethnic composition and social capital. It identifies the key determinants of each of these domains of integration and investigates the direction as well as the size of interdependencies among them. The analysis uses a unique dataset built on the basis of a survey of about 1,600 refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran who had come to Austria since 2010. The analysis establishes an important causal link between social integration and labour market integration (i.e. employment). Both social network effects with Austrians as well as with co-ethnics are important in this context but the former is more powerful than the latter. It shows that both education and length of stay are key determinants of successful labour market integration. Furthermore, tests regarding the relevance of language command for both social and labour market integration show the strong importance of speaking and understanding German, and much less so, of writing German. Disclaimer Research for this paper was financed by the Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Project No. 17166). Support provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank for this research is gratefully acknowledged.
    Keywords: social integration, labour market integration, refugees, migration
    JEL: J60 J15 Z10
    Date: 2019–11
  57. By: Marcos Fernandes
    Abstract: I propose a social learning model that investigates how confimatory bias affects public opinion when agents exchange information over a social network. For that, besides exchanging opinions with friends, individuals observe a public sequence of potentially ambiguous signals and they interpret it according to a rule that accounts for confirmation bias. I first show that, regardless the level of ambiguity and both in the case of a single individual or of a networked society, only two types of opinions might be formed and both are biased. One opinion type, however, is necessarily less biased (more efficient) than the other depending on the state of the world. The size of both biases depends on the ambiguity level and the relative magnitude of the state and confirmatory biases. In this context, long-run learning is not attained even when individuals interpret ambiguity impartially. Finally, since it is not trivial to ascertain analytically the probability of emergence of the efficient consensus when individuals are connected through a social network and have different priors, I use simulations to analyze its determinants. Three main results derived from this exercise are that, in expected terms, i) some network topologies are more conducive to consensus efficiency, ii) some degree of partisanship enhances consensus efficiency even under confirmatory bias and iii) open-mindedness, i.e. when partisans agree to exchange opinions with other partisans with polar opposite beliefs, might harm efficiency in some cases.
    Date: 2019
  58. By: Brady, David; Fink, Joshua J
    Abstract: Immigration to rich democracies grew substantially in the 1990s and 2000s. We investigate whether the rise of immigration influenced the novel and salient outcome of preferences for greater law enforcement spending. We propose that these preferences are consequential for policymaking, reflect popular demand for punitive social control, and represent micro-level preferences underlying the politics of criminal justice. Motivated by literatures on criminal justice politics, minority threat, and the fear of crime, we examine whether stocks and flows of immigration influence individual-level preferences for greater law enforcement spending. Using International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) data, we analyze between-country variation with multi-level models of 25 countries in 2006, and within-country variation with differences-in-differences (DD) models of 16 countries with available data in both 1996 and 2006. Both multilevel and DD models show that flows of immigration increase preferences for greater law enforcement spending. Indeed, the coefficients for immigration flows are larger than or comparable in magnitude to the coefficients for any other variable, and are robust net of homicide rates and police officers per 100,000. By contrast, the stock of immigrants is not robustly associated with preferences. The results demonstrate that rising immigration contributed to increasing public support for greater law enforcement spending.
    Date: 2019–02–27
  59. By: Rothengatter, Werner (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The European Union introduced the concept of Trans-European transport networks in 1996 and developed it from a set of projects into a comprehensive network plan in 2013. The high-priority components of this plan (for 2050) are a core network and nine core network corridors (CNCs), which the European Union intends to implement until the year 2030. The CNCs focus on improving connectivity, including harmonizing technology and organization as well as removing border resistance. Railways, in particular high-speed railways, are at the core of the CNCs. The evaluation of CNCs through conventional cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is too narrow and could lead to a patchwork of independent projects rather than an integrated network. Therefore, the European Commission has launched several studies on extending CBA with strategic approaches including wider economic impacts and long-term impacts on the environment, climate, and regional/social equity. As there has been no convention for a standard approach until now—contrasting CBA—we discuss several possible methodologies. The conclusion favors dynamic approaches that are well calibrated on the base of empirical observations, such as macro-econometric or system dynamics models, over theoretically more challenging general equilibrium models, although the latter are still the mainstream in the economic literature.
    Keywords: trans-european networks; core network corridors; cost–benefit analysis; wider economic impacts; computed equilibrium; econometrics; system dynamics approaches; integrated assessment
    JEL: H54 O22 R42
    Date: 2019–05–07
  60. By: Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Harris School, University of Chicago); Rees, Daniel I. (University of Colorado Denver); Wang, Tianyi (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: According to Troesken (2004), efforts to purify municipal water supplies at the turn of the 20th century dramatically improved the relative health of blacks. There is, however, little empirical evidence to support the Troesken hypothesis. Using city-level data published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the period 1906-1938, we explore the relationship between water purification efforts and the black-white infant mortality gap. Our results suggest that, while water filtration was effective across the board, adding chlorine to the water supply reduced mortality only among black infants. Specifically, chlorination is associated with an 11 percent reduction in black infant mortality and a 13 percent reduction in the black-white infant mortality gap. We also find that chlorination led to a substantial reduction in the black-white diarrhea mortality gap among children under the age of 2, although this estimate is measured with less precision.
    Keywords: infant mortality, public health, black-white infant mortality gap
    JEL: I18 J11 J15 N3
    Date: 2019–11
  61. By: Gallagher, Justin (Montana University); Hartley, Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Rohlin, Shawn M. (Kent University)
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of cash grants on household finance and business survival following a natural disaster. Disaster-affected individuals in high damage blocks with access to cash grants have 17% less credit card debt following the disaster than those without access to cash grants. Grants do not reduce negative financial outcomes, but do decrease migration. The grants play a role in mitigating the effects of the shock to businesses; resulting in 18% more establishments and 29% more employees post-disaster in disaster-affected neighborhoods where residents receive grants, relative to disaster-affected neighborhoods where they do not receive grants. These effects are concentrated among small non-manufacturing establishments that rely on local demand.
    Keywords: Natural disasters; households finance; regional economic activity
    JEL: D14 Q54 R11
    Date: 2019–10–28
  62. By: Braun, Sebastian Till (University of Bayreuth); Dwenger, Nadja (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: Following one of the largest displacements in human history, almost eight million forced migrants arrived in West Germany after WWII. We study empirically how the settlement location of migrants affected their economic, social and political integration in West Germany. We first document large differences in integration outcomes across West German counties. We then show that high inflows of migrants and a large agrarian base hampered integration. Religious differences between migrants and natives had no effect on economic integration. Yet, they decreased intermarriage rates and strengthened anti-migrant parties. Based on our estimates, we simulate the regional distribution of migrants that maximizes their labor force participation. Inner-German migration in the 1950s brought the actual distribution closer to its optimum.
    Keywords: forced migration, regional integration, post-war Germany
    JEL: N34 J15 J61
    Date: 2019–11
  63. By: Louis A. Ferleger (Boston University); Matthew Lavallee (Boston University)
    Abstract: A large literature has detailed the seminal roles played in the Civil Rights Movement by activists, new political organizations, churches, and philanthropies. But black-owned businesses also provided a behind-the-scenes foundation for the movement’s success. Many black-owned businesses operated across the South because they provided goods and services to black customers who could not attain them from white businesses because of segregation. These small business owners very often played roles in civic matters that their counterparts in larger firms did not. Their civic participation and support contributed far more to the potential for political progress than scholars have recognized. Some accounts of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, for example, underestimate the significance of the role played by Montgomery`s community of black-owned businesses, from taxis to pharmacies. Examples from the Civil Rights Movement in Mississippi also illustrate the importance of local small businesses: black business owners were on the front lines, resisting strong pressures from the white community. This paper analyzes these episodes and places them in the context of black-owned businesses in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s, albeit descriptively given the unevenness and unavailability of standardized statistics. It also traces the debates over “Black Capitalism†and how the decline of segregation led to dramatic reorganizations of black businesses.
    Keywords: American Political Economy, Black Capitalism, Civil Rights Movement, Small Businesses, African American Businesses, Civic Participation, Martin Luther King, Jr., Andrew Brimmer
    JEL: A13 A14 B15 B52 D29 D72 G18 G21 J15 J48 L11 L21 N12 N82 N92 P48
    Date: 2017–12
  64. By: Matthias Firgo
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of hosting Olympic Games on the regional economy in the short and long run. For identification, runners-up in the Olympic bidding process are used to construct the counterfactual for Olympic host regions. In the short run, hosting Summer Olympics boosts regional GDP per capita by about 3 to 4 percentage points relative to the national level in the year of the event and the year before. There is also evidence for positive long-run effects but results on the latter are not statistically robust. In contrast, Winter Olympics do not have a positive impact on host regions. If anything, they lead to a temporal decline in regional GDP per capita in the years around the event.
    Keywords: Olympic Games, mega events, public infrastructure, regional development, causal effects, sports economics
    Date: 2019–11–23
  65. By: Tripp, Aili Mari
    Keywords: International Development
  66. By: Emanuele Ciani (Bank of Italy); Raffaello Bronzini (Bank of Italy); Francesco Montaruli (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Economic theory and the empirical literature are not conclusive on the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this paper we estimate the impact of foreign tourists’ spending on value added per capita growth in the Italian provinces, using various econometric strategies. The overall results show that the effect is positive and statistically significant, but modest in economic terms. The impact is larger for the less developed provinces, and null for those that showed the highest tourist revenues per inhabitant at the beginning of the period, suggesting that congestion phenomena may occur.
    Keywords: tourism, economic growth, tourism expenditure, beach disease, dynamic panel data, instrumental variables
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 L83
    Date: 2019–10
  67. By: Siordia, Carlos; Leyser-Whalen, Ophra
    Abstract: Previous work argues that confidentiality is compromised by using an individual’s sex, full date of birth, and US zip code. With use of the American Community Survey we test this assumption while maintaining participant confidentiality to study how timing of births vary by season, region, race/ethnicity, origin, sex, and birth cohort. We found that region and demographic factors help explain the likelihood for giving birth in warm months, which provides evidence contrary to the birth-rate temporal-homogeneity assumption.
    Date: 2019–02–14
  68. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: The Department of Defense (DoD) operates hundreds of military bases and similar installations that host military units and support their daily operations, providing services such as housing, utilities, and grounds maintenance. In 2016, the four service branches allocated $25 billion—about 4 percent of DoD’s budget—to the costs of such services, called base operations support (BOS).
    JEL: F52 H56 H57 H54 H82 H83 N42 O18 R53
    Date: 2019–11–26
  69. By: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez; Dmitry Khametshin; José-Luis Peydró; Andrea Polo
    Abstract: We show that local central bank policies attenuate global financial cycle (GFC)’s spillovers. For identification, we exploit GFC shocks and Brazilian interventions in FX derivatives using three matched administrative registers: credit, foreign credit flows to banks, and employer-employee. After U.S. Federal Reserve Taper Tantrum (followed by strong Emerging Markets FX depreciation and volatility increase), Brazilian banks with larger ex-ante reliance on foreign debt strongly cut credit supply, thereby reducing firm-level employment. However, a large FX intervention program supplying derivatives against FX risks—hedger of last resort—halves the negative effects. Finally, a 2008-2015 panel exploiting GFC shocks and local related policies confirm these results.
    Date: 2019–11
  70. By: Mariko Nakagawa (Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo); Yasuhiro Sato (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Kazuhiro Yamamoto (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between segregation and public spending from the viewpoint of theory on social identification by developing a model wherein ethnic minority assimilation and public goods provision are both endogenous. We first show the possibility of multiple equilibria with respect to assimilation: in one equilibrium, individuals belonging to minorities choose to assimilate into the majority society whereas in the other, they reject assimilation, resulting in segregation. We then show that the government’s public spending is smaller in the latter equilibrium than in the former one, which is consistent with the empirical finding that segregation decreases public spending. We further examine how changes in the government’s objective affect the possibility of multiple equilibria.
    Date: 2019–11

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