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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Cohen, Jeffrey P. (University of Connecticut); Coughlin, Cletus C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Soques, Daniel (University of North Carolina Wilmington) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines house price diffusion across metropolitan areas in the United States. We develop a generalization of the Hamilton and Owyang (2012) Markov-switching model, where we incorporate direct regional spillovers using a spatial weighting matrix. The Markov-switching framework allows consideration for house price movements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial weighting matrix improves fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs that experience idiosyncratic recessions plus one distinct national house price cycle. Notably only the housing downturn associated with the Great Recession spread across all of the MSAs in our sample; other house price downturns remained contained to a single cluster. Previous research has found that housing cycles and business cycles are intertwined. To examine this potential relationship we apply our spatial Markov-switching model to employment growth data. We find that house price comovement and employment comovement are distinct across cities. |
| Keywords: | housing cycles; Markov-switching; cluster analysis |
| JEL: | C31 C38 R30 |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-028&r=all |
| By: | Nathalie GAUSSIER; Seghir ZERGUINI |
| Abstract: | This article is part of the STRATEGIE research project co-financed by the Région Nouvelle Aquitaine. It presents the MUST-B model (Integrated Modeling of Land-Use – Transport: for application in the Bordeaux agglomeration) which is based on systemic land-use / transport modeling with regards to how the land and property markets operate, and the interdependent factors for selecting the locations of households and employment. MUST-B is an agent-oriented model which simulates household and job location choices. It is based on an auction mechanism which models competition between agents in the real estate market (existing property holdings, including residential, industrial and tertiary) and in the land property market (from buildable land reserves) over a given timeframe. This auction procedure is based on maximizing the utility provided to the agent by a given location: housing for a household and an area for business activity for employment premises. Utility is a function of several characteristics relating to the space and premises occupied, such as accessibility, surface area, energy quality of the building, notoriety, agglomeration effects and taxes, or property prices, the latter being endogenous. In this article, the mechanisms and functioning of the land property and real estate markets which prevail in MUST-B are presented. Methodological choices and behavioral guidelines for agents (households/workplaces), are also set out, and to illustrate the operational nature of the model, the databases required for implementing the MUST-B in the Bordeaux Urban Area are presented. |
| Keywords: | LUTI, Choice of location, Households, Employment, Accessibility, Real estate prices, Multi-agent, Systemic modeling. |
| JEL: | R14 R31 R41 R52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2019-13&r=all |
| By: | Eckert, Fabian (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Hejlesen, Mads (Aarhus University); Walsh, Conor (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We offer causal evidence of higher returns to experience in big cities. Exploiting a natural experiment that settled political refugees across labor markets in Denmark between 1986 and 1998, we find that while refugees initially earn similar wages across locations, those placed in Copenhagen exhibit 35% faster wage growth with each additional year of experience. This gap is driven primarily by differential sorting towards high-wage establishments, occupations, and industries. An estimated spatial model of earnings dynamics attributes an important role to unobserved worker ability: more able refugees transition to more productive establishments faster in Copenhagen than in other cities. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration economies; Urban; Regional labor markets; Resettlement; Wage differentials |
| JEL: | J31 J61 R11 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:0024&r=all |
| By: | Xu, Hangtian |
| Abstract: | Our study shows that land price fluctuations are an important factor affecting suburbanization and gentrification of large cities. During a period of economic ascent, the rise of property prices favors commercial and office land use in central city areas, increasing their daytime population while decreasing the residential population. This shift stems from the fact that, in response to the rising land prices, developers tend to raise the height of buildings, and the land price elasticity of building height is smaller for residential than for commercial buildings. In a downturn period, however, with the decline of land prices and shrinking demand for commercial space, it becomes profitable to shift land from commercial to residential use in central locations; gentrification occurs as an unintended consequence of this shift. We provide support for our hypotheses, by examining the population dynamics in Japan’s largest metropolitan areas before and after a nationwide real estate bubble and its burst. |
| Keywords: | gentrification; real estate bubble; housing development; Japan |
| JEL: | R2 R23 R3 |
| Date: | 2019–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96803&r=all |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Zhou, Xiaoqing (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region may seem important only for that regional housing market. We provide evidence that such shocks can also affect housing markets in other regions. Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. Oil price shocks constitute an important source of exogenous regional variation in income in Canada because oil production is highly geographically concentrated. We document that, at the national level, real oil price shocks account for 11% of the variability in real house price growth over time. At the regional level, we find that unexpected increases in the real price of oil raise housing demand and real house prices not only in oil-producing regions, but also in other regions. We develop a theoretical model of the propagation of real oil price shocks across regions that helps understand this finding. The model differentiates between oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions and incorporates multiple sectors, trade between provinces, government redistribution, and consumer spending on fuel. We empirically confirm the model prediction that oil price shocks are propagated to housing markets in non-oil-producing regions by the government redistribution of oil revenue and by increased interprovincial trade. |
| Keywords: | House price; regional heterogeneity; oil price; redistribution; resource boom; regional propagation; Canada |
| JEL: | F43 Q33 Q43 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1909&r=all |
| By: | Aliprantis, Dionissi (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Martin, Hal (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Phillips, David (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Despite being eligible for use in any neighborhood, housing choice vouchers tend to be redeemed in low-opportunity neighborhoods. This paper investigates how landlords contribute to this outcome and how they respond to efforts to change it. We leverage a policy change in Washington, DC, that increased voucher rental payments only in high-rent neighborhoods. Using two waves of a correspondence experiment that bracket the policy change, we show that most opportunity landlords screen out prospective voucher tenants, and we detect no change in average screening behavior after a $450 per month increase in voucher payments. In lease-up data, however, enough landlords do respond to increased payments to equalize the flow of voucher tenants into high- vs. low-rent neighborhoods. Using tax data and listings from a website specializing in subsidized housing, we characterize a group of marginal opportunity landlords who respond to higher payments. Marginal opportunity landlords are relatively rare, list their units near market rates, operate on a small scale, and negatively select into the voucher program based on hard-to-observe differences in unit quality. |
| Keywords: | Housing Choice Voucher; landlord; opportunity neighborhood; mobility; Small AreaFair Market Rent; SAFMR; |
| JEL: | H30 I38 J15 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:190201&r=all |
| By: | Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban (Princeton University); Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Schwartzman, Felipe (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | In the U.S., cognitive non-routine (CNR) occupations associated with higher wages are disproportionately represented in larger cities. To study the allocation of workers across cities, we propose and quantify a spatial equilibrium model with multiple industries that employ CNR and alternative (non-CNR) occupations. Productivity is city-industry-occupation specific and partly determined by externalities across local workers. We estimate that the productivity of CNR workers in a city depends significantly on both its share of CNR workers and total employment. Together with heterogeneous preferences for locations, these externalities imply equilibrium allocations that are not efficient. An optimal policy that benefits workers equally across occupations incentivizes the formation of cognitive hubs, leading to larger fractions of CNR workers in some of today's largest cities. At the same time, these cities become smaller to mitigate congestion effects while cities that are initially small increase in size. Large and small cities end up expanding industries in which they already concentrate, while medium-size cities tend to diversify across industries. The optimal allocation thus features transfers to non-CNR workers who move from large to small cities consistent with the implied change in the industrial composition landscape. Finally, we show that the optimal policy reinforces equilibrium trends observed since 1980. However, these trends were in part driven by low growth in real-estate productivity in CNR-abundant cities that reduced welfare. |
| Keywords: | occupations; congnitive non-routine; cities |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:19-16&r=all |
| By: | Cervero, Robert; Guerra, Erick |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between transit and urban densities in the United States. An analysis of light rail systems finds that a residential density of about 30 people per gross acre near stations is needed to in order to make them among the top 25 percent of rail transit investments in terms of cost effectiveness; for heavy rail systems, the density is 45 people per gross acre. Increasing density around stations would greatly increase ridership, particularly when jobs are located within one-quarter mile of the stations and housing is located within one-half mile. Stakeholders in the small city of Stockton found high levels of density unacceptable, and supported transit improvements, such as bus rapid transit, only when there would be no impact on private vehicle traffic. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2019–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3mb598qr&r=all |
| By: | Andrea Craig (Department of Economics, University of Windsor) |
| Abstract: | Public transportation infrastructure projects are major government investments that potentially affect not only travel mode choices, but residential location. To analyze the impacts of public transportation projects, accounting for households' residential location decisions, I develop a discrete choice model of commute mode and residential location. In this model, households have heterogeneous preferences for neighbourhood characteristics and commute costs. I estimate this model using microdata from Vancouver and commute times calculated with geographic information system (GIS) data. The mean-income household's willingness to pay to reduce commute time is fourteen dollars per hour and there is significant heterogeneity in this value across household income. Using the estimated model, I simulate households' residential and commute mode decisions under a proposed public transportation infrastructure project. |
| Keywords: | residential choice, commute mode choice, public transportation, counterfactual simulation |
| JEL: | R21 R41 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wis:wpaper:1904&r=all |
| By: | Foote, Christopher L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Loewenstein, Lara (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use two comprehensive micro datasets to study the evolution of the distribution of mortgage debt during the 2000s housing boom. We show that the allocation of mortgage debt remained stable, as did the distribution of real estate assets. We propose that any theory of the boom must replicate this fact. Using a general equilibrium model, we show that this requires two elements: (1) an exogenous shock to the economy that increases expected house price growth or, alternatively, reduces interest rates and (2) financial markets that endogenously relax constraints in response to the shock. The role played by subprime mortgage debt provides additional empirical evidence that this narrative mirrors reality. |
| JEL: | D3 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:191900&r=all |
| By: | Muñoz, P; Prem, M |
| Abstract: | An important question is whether differences in management can explain variation in productivity and whether different compensation schemes and selection policies can impact the allocation of managerial effectiveness. To investigate this, we measure the value-added of school principals and study their labor market outcomes in Chile, where a large subsidized private sector competes with public sector schools. Using large administrative data sets on student performance and school personnel, we document substantial variation across principals in their ability to improve students’ learning. We show that effective principals increase the retention of young and high value-added teachers, and that principal effectiveness is recognized by the school community. A theoretical model of job offers and acceptances guides our empirical inquiry into the principals’ labor market. Leveraging observational and quasi-experimental variation, we show that: (1) principals’ effectiveness is more strongly associated with wages in private schools, and (2) despite relatively rigid wages, public schools can attract better principals by improving their personnel selection process. |
| Keywords: | School principal, Productivity, Sectoral allocation |
| JEL: | J3 J8 M5 I2 |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:017596&r=all |
| By: | Roberto Antonietti; Chiara Burlina |
| Abstract: | Taking an evolutionary economic geography approach, we test whether the level of industry variety in a region affects its economic complexity. With reference to Italy, we measure variety using a Theil index of information entropy, and complexity with the Hidalgo and Hausmann index. Our results show that regions where variety grows faster also have a higher rate of growth in economic complexity. This relationship only holds in regions with low initial levels of variety and/or complexity, however, which are mainly located in the South of Italy. We suggest that product diversification, by increasing regional specialization in high-tech industries, can explain regional development and Italian North-South disparities. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, entropy, industry variety, unit root |
| JEL: | O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1930&r=all |
| By: | Heise, Sebastian (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Porzio, Tommaso (Columbia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We develop a job-ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and space, which we design to leverage matched employer-employee data to study differences in wages and labor productivity across regions. We apply our framework to data from Germany: twenty-five years after the reunification, real wages in the East are still 26 percent lower than those in the West. We find that 60 percent of the wage gap is due to labor being paid a higher wage per efficiency unit in West Germany, and quantify three distinct barriers that prevent East Germans from migrating west to obtain a higher wage: migration costs, workers' preferences to live in their home region, and more frequent job opportunities received from home. Interpreting the data as a frictional labor market, we estimate that these spatial barriers to mobility are small, which implies that the spatial misallocation of workers between East and West Germany has at most moderate aggregate effects. |
| Keywords: | employment; aggregate labor productivity; labor mobility; migration |
| JEL: | E24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:898&r=all |
| By: | Briglauer, Wolfgang; Dürr, Niklas; Gugler, Klaus |
| Abstract: | There is still hardly any empirical evidence on how divergent broadband technologies, and, by extension, bandwidth levels, influence GDP growth, or on the extent of spatial externalities at a regional level. Our study aims to assess the economic benefits of high-speed broadband networks within and across neighbouring counties in Germany. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset of 401 German counties with data from 2010-2015 as well as different panel estimation techniques, we find that the availability of high-speed broadband (which enables transfer rates of 50 Mbit/sec and higher) has a small but significant positive effect on regional GDP growth in the average German county, when compared to normal broadband availability. Furthermore, we find that broadband deployment in German counties induces substantial economic benefits in terms of direct effects and regional externalities. According to our main estimation results, an increase in bandwidth coverage of 50 Mbit/sec and higher by one percentage point induces a rise in regional GDP of 0.05%. This effect is almost doubled if we also take regional externalities into account and is of particular relevance for urban counties. Furthermore, our cost-benefit analysis suggests substantial efficiency gains, as the total economic benefits of subsidy programs to encourage broadband expansion substantially exceeded their associated costs. |
| Keywords: | High-speed broadband infrastructure,economic growth,spatial externalities,German counties,panel data |
| JEL: | H23 H54 L96 L98 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse19:205171&r=all |
| By: | Kahn, Matthew E. (Johns Hopkins University); Tracy, Joseph (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | An emerging labor economics literature studies the consequences of firms exercising market power in local labor markets. These monopsony models have implications for trends in earnings inequality. The extent of this market power is likely to vary across local labor markets. In choosing what market to live and work in, workers trade off wages, rents and local amenities. Building on the Rosen/Roback spatial equilibrium model, we investigate how the existence of local monopsony power affects the cross-sectional spatial distribution of wages and rents across cities. We find an employment-weighted elasticity of land prices to concentration of –0.034—similar to Rinz (2018)’s reported elasticity of compensation to concentration. This finding has implications for who bears the economic incidence of labor market power. We present two extensions of the model focusing on the role of migration costs and worker skill heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | monopsony; wages; housing costs |
| JEL: | J3 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1912&r=all |
| By: | Grossman, Valerie (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Martínez-García, Enrique (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Torres, Luis Bernardo (Texas A&M University); Sun, Yongzhi (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas. We model their dynamic relationship taking into account demand- and supply-side housing fundamentals (personal disposable income per capita, long-term interest rates and rural land prices) as well as their varying dependence on oil activity. We show the following: 1) Oil price shocks have limited pass-through to house prices—the highest pass-through is found among the most oil-dependent cities where, after 20 quarters, the cumulative response of house prices is 21 percent of the cumulative effect on oil prices. Still, among less oil-dependent urban areas, the house price response to a one standard deviation oil price shock is economically significant and comparable in magnitude to the response to a one standard deviation income shock. 2) Omitting oil prices when looking at housing markets in oil-producing areas biases empirical inferences by substantially overestimating the effect of income shocks on house prices. 3) The empirical relationship linking oil price fluctuations to house prices has remained largely stable over time, in spite of the significant changes in Texas’ oil sector with the onset of the shale revolution in the 2000s. |
| Keywords: | real house prices; real rural land prices; panel VAR model with exogenous variables; real oil price shocks; (non-oil) real income shocks |
| JEL: | C33 O18 Q43 R14 R3 |
| Date: | 2019–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:369&r=all |
| By: | Sukanta Bhattacharya (University of Calcutta); Aparajita Dasgupta (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Kumarjit Mandal (University of Calcutta); Anirban Mukherjee (University of Calcutta) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine whether students' and teachers' social identity play any role in the learning outcome of the students. More importantly, we ask if a student bene fits by learning from a teacher of the same gender. Unlike the existing literature which explains such interaction in terms of role model based effect, we explain such interaction in terms of gender based sorting across private and public schools. Our results are driven by two critical difference between male and female members. For male and female teachers, the difference comes from their differential opportunity costs of teaching in schools at remote locations. For students, the difference between male and female members comes from the differential return to their human capital investment by parents - where for girls, a lower fraction of the return comes to their parental families after they are married following patriarchal norm. These factors create a sorting pattern which leads to an impact of gender matching. We then test our theoretical results using survey data collected from Andhra Pradesh. |
| Keywords: | education; gender; learning; student-teacher interaction; identity |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:14&r=all |
| By: | Aliprantis, Dionissi (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Carroll, Daniel R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Young, Eric R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | Why do high-income black households live in neighborhoods with characteristics similar to those of low-income white households? We find that neighborhood sorting by income and race cannot be explained by financial constraints: High-income, high-wealth black households live in similar-quality neighborhoods as low-income, low-wealth white households. We provide evidence that black households sort across neighborhoods according to some non-pecuniary factor(s) correlated with the racial composition of neighborhoods. Black households sorting into black neighborhoods can explain the racial gap in neighborhood quality at all income levels. The supply of high-quality black neighborhoods drives the neighborhood quality of black households. |
| Keywords: | Neighborhood; Income; Wealth; Race; |
| JEL: | H72 J15 J18 R11 R21 |
| Date: | 2019–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:180801&r=all |
| By: | Duca, John V. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, the trend toward increased synchronization has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across countries or cities. Theory and limited econometric evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more in-synch house price cycles will become and the more substitution effects may matter. In addition, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors. |
| Keywords: | House prices; synchronization; star cities; international capital flows |
| JEL: | R0 R20 |
| Date: | 2019–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1911&r=all |
| By: | Mia Gray; Anna Barford |
| Abstract: | Austerity, the sustained and widespread cuts to government budgets, has characterised Britain’s public policy since 2010. The local state has undergone substantial restructuring, driven by major budget reductions from central government. Hitherto, few studies of austerity in the UK have considered the interplay of national and local policies. We contribute a fine-grained spatial analysis of local authority budgets, highlighting their socioeconomically- and geographically-uneven impacts. We identify substantial variations between authorities in terms of funding, local tax-base, fiscal resources, assets, political control, service-need and demographics. We argue that austerity has actively reshaped the relationship between central and local government in Britain, shrinking the capacity of the local state, increasing inequality between local governments, and exacerbating territorial injustice. |
| Keywords: | Urban Austerity, State Rescaling, Great Recession, Territorial Injustice, Local Government Restructuring, Fiscal Disciplining |
| JEL: | H1 H7 H12 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp510&r=all |
| By: | Piet Eichholtz (Maastricht University); NAGIHAN MIMIROGLU (Maastricht University); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Erkan Yönder (John Molson School of Business, Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | The composition of lenders has changed dramatically since the crisis, and non-bank lenders have become important players in the commercial mortgage{backed securities (CMBS) markets. Comparing banks to non-bank lenders, we investigate whether the geographical distance between lenders, borrowers and their properties is reflected in the pricing of US mortgages that were included in US CMBS pools during the 2000 to 2017 period. We find that a doubling in bank borrower distance is associated with a 2.5 basis point increase in the spread, and that this effect is more pronounced if the loan is collateralized by a riskier property. Geographical distance does not seem to have any effect on the loan spread for mortgages granted by non-bank lenders. The difference in loan pricing across originator types (even after controlling for key mortgage and property characteristics) suggests banks and non-bank lenders have different incentives, lending technologies, and/or different types of borrowers. |
| Keywords: | CMBS, non{bank lending, geographical distance, asymmetric information, loan spread. |
| JEL: | G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1958&r=all |
| By: | Cohen, Jeffrey P. (University of Connecticut); Coughlin, Cletus C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Crews, Jonas C. (Walton Family Foundation); Ross, Stephen L. (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. We examine the effects of Stapleton airport’s closing on nearby, Denver housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory effects on prices upon announcement of the closing, but no price changes at closing likely because it was widely anticipated. However, we find that high income and white households delayed moving into these locations until after the airport’s closing. Also, developers upgraded the quality of houses being built after closing. Further, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes had substantial effects on housing prices. |
| Keywords: | airport noise; housing prices; airport closing; anticipatory effects; dynamic price effects |
| JEL: | R31 R41 |
| Date: | 2019–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-027&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Cotte Poveda; Clara Inés Pardo; Carolina Jimenez |
| Abstract: | Rapid advances in science, technology and innovation (STI) have transformed the management of cities, have great potential to improve the requirements of local governments and citizens, and can help generate sustainable urban development and equality, especially in developing countries, to decrease poverty and increase education and health. These topics note the importance of developing STI in urban policies as an integrative element to promote urban development based on the necessities of current and future societies and the importance of knowing the perceptions of different stakeholders in the city with respect to STI. Therefore, this study seeks to determine the STI public policy of a city in an emerging country by using a cross-impact analysis based on workshops and interviews with experts and interest groups. From this study, we want to develop recommendations to formulate new public policy regarding the state of science, technology and innovation in Bogotá. The application of this methodology identified key policy factors, such as STI investment, regional vision, resource optimization, entrepreneurship, promotion of technological development centres and participation in peace scenarios. These factors require in-depth exploration in order to improve the quality of the policy. Finally, based on the results obtained in this study, we developed some thoughts and recommendations about Bogotá’s STI public policy formulation that can be used as key input for policymakers and decision-makers to improve the promotion of STI to achieve sustainable development and the well-being of the population. |
| JEL: | O3 O31 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2019–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000137:017594&r=all |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Wang, Zhiling |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal data on immigrants in the Netherlands fromthe survey 'Social Position and Use of Public Facilities by Immigrants' (SPVA) for the years 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002, we examined the impacts of social contacts and Dutch language proficiency on adult foreign-born men's earnings, employment and occupational status. On average, social contacts and a good mastery of the Dutch language enhance immigrants'economic performances. The effects are much stronger for immigrants with low-skill-transferability than for immigrants with high-skill-transferability, are stronger for economic migrants than for non-economic migrants, and are stronger for white-collar workers than for blue-collar workers. Contact with Dutch people and Dutch organisations unambiguously enhances all aspects of immigrants' economic performance, however, no evidence is found for a positive effect of co-ethnic contact on employment status. To deal with the endogeneity between Dutch language ability and earnings, an interaction term between age at migration and a dichotomous variable for a non-Dutch-speaking origin is used as the identifying instrument. The selectivity issue of survey respondents was tackled as well to validate the main findings. The study has a strong policy implication for integration policies in the Netherlands, or more broadly in the immigrant receiving countries. |
| Keywords: | immigrants,social capital,Dutch language proficiency,labour market performance,skill transferability,the Netherlands |
| JEL: | J15 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:419&r=all |
| By: | Kakpo, Eliakim; Le Gallo, Julie; Grivault, Camille; Breuillé, Marie |
| Abstract: | The railway revolution that swayed through Europe in the nineteenth century left a legacy of unexplored networks. In this paper, we observe a subset of unfinished railways to evaluate the impact of railroads on population growth. Using the random nature of the achieved portions, we compare municipalities located around the planned but not realized segment of the railways to those in the vicinity of the operated sections. Our results indicate that the railways boost population growth in the medium and long-run. However, the medium-run effects are only visible in municipalities with high pre-arrival population. The railroads also seem to have solved a coordination problem in the sense that treated municipalities were more likely to gain access to other transport infrastructures later. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, population growth, development, railways, transport |
| JEL: | N44 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96743&r=all |
| By: | Daruich, Diego (University of Southern California); Kozlowski, Julian (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina, with over 9 million observations per day. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions—i.e., product prices almost do not vary within stores of a chain. Uniform pricing implies that prices would not change with regional conditions or shocks, particularly so if chains operate in several regions. We confirm this hypothesis using employment data. While prices in stores of chains operating almost exclusively in one region do react to changes in regional employment, stores of chains that operate in many regions do not seem to react to local labor market conditions. We study the impact of uniform pricing on estimates of local and aggregate consumption elasticities in a tractable two-region model in which firms have to set the same price in all regions. The estimated model predicts an almost one-third larger elasticity of consumption to a regional than an aggregate income shock because prices adjust more in response to aggregate shocks. This result highlights that some caution may be necessary when using regional shocks to estimate aggregate elasticities, particularly when the relevant prices are set uniformly across regions. |
| Keywords: | Uniform Pricing; Price Dispersion; Regional Economics |
| JEL: | D40 E30 L10 R10 |
| Date: | 2019–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-024&r=all |
| By: | Castillejo, Clare |
| Abstract: | Establishing free movement regimes is an ambition for most African regional economic communities, and such regimes are widely understood as important for regional integration, growth and development. However, in recent years the EU's migration policies and priorities in Africa - which are narrowly focused on stemming irregular migration to Europe - appear to be in tension with African ambitions for free movement. This paper examines how the EU's current political engagement and programming on migration in Africa is impacting on African ambitions to establish free movement regimes. It focuses first on the continental level, and then looks in-depth at two regional economic communities: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the Horn of Africa, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The paper begins by examining how free movement has featured within both EU and African migration agendas in recent years, describing how this issue has been increasingly sidelined within the EU's migration policy framework, while receiving growing attention by the African Union. The paper then discusses the impact of EU migration policies and programmes on progress towards regional free movement in the IGAD region. It finds that the EU is broadly supportive of efforts to establish an IGAD free movement regime, although in practice gives this little priority in comparison with other migration issues. The paper goes on to examine the EU's engagement in the ECOWAS region, which is strongly focused on preventing irregular migration and returning irregular migrants. It asks whether there is an innate tension between this EU agenda and the ambitions of ECOWAS to fully realise its existing free movement regime, and argues that the EU's current engagement in West Africa is actively undermining free movement. Finally, the paper discusses the differences between the EU's approach to migration and free movement in these two regions. It offers recommendations regarding how the EU can strengthen its support for free movement in both these regions, as well as more broadly in Africa. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:112019&r=all |
| By: | Baum, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper is a case-study exploring how and what makes IoT a very successful technology applied in the specific context of an airport. The author focuses on how IT systems and users interact in a unique environment which shares many characteristics with a city, hence the author starts his investigation into the concept of the airport as a Smart City and the Airport-City-as-a-Platform. After analyzing the City-as-a-Platform literature, notably Anttiroiko's work on the raise of participatory innovation platforms in Finnish Cities, the author posits that although cities and airports are both platforms for IT and IoT systems, cities has an inherent welfare element that airport management lacks pace key performance indicators such as Levels of Service (LOS). Moreover, the track record of IoT in the airport context, including early IoT precursors systems such as sensors and RFID tracking tags, have a longer proven record of success in the airport context, while in many other industries IoT is still an emerging technology. The airport IoT success record and challenges lend itself to closer scrutiny, notably to consider in which phase of the technology life-cycle does the success lies. Driven by the experience of his colleagues in the Connected Airport sector, the author divides the technology life-cycle phases into three segments: technology choice, technology implementation and technology optimization and operation. In order to discern the success factors that work for IoT technology in the airport context, the author devised a survey to capture the areas where colleagues agree are the most conducive to success. For the purposes of this paper, the survey on "Implementation of IoT and Digital Transformation in the Airport Industry" was created and disseminated amongst airport IoT practitioners. The paper concludes with an analysis of results. |
| Keywords: | Airports,Smart Cities City-As-A-Platform,survey,IoT integration,IoT technology maturity |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse19:205168&r=all |
| By: | Ludovica Gambaro; Guido Neidhöfer; C. Katharina Spieß |
| Abstract: | Devising appropriate policy measures for the integration of refugees is high on the agenda of many governments. This paper focuses on the social integration of families seeking asylum in Germany between 2013 and 2016. Exploiting differences in services availability across counties as an exogenous source of variation, we evaluate the effect of early education attendance by refugee children on their parents’ integration. We find a significant and substantial positive effect, in particular on the social integration of mothers. The size of the estimate is on average around 52% and is mainly driven by improved language proficiency and employment prospects. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, refugees, childcare, early education, integration |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1828&r=all |
| By: | Hall, Arden (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Maingi, Ramain Quinn (New York University) |
| Abstract: | Borrowers terminate residential mortgages for a variety of reasons. Prepayments and defaults have always been distinguishable, and researchers have recently distinguished between prepayments involving a move and other prepayments. But these categories still combine distinct decisions. For example, a borrower may refinance to obtain a lower interest rate or to borrow a larger amount. By matching mortgage servicing and credit bureau records, we are able to distinguish among several motivations for prepayment: simple refinancing, cash-out refinancing, mortgage payoff, and move. Using multinomial logit to estimate a competing hazard model for these types of prepayments plus default, we demonstrate that these outcomes are distinct, with some outcomes showing quite different relationships to standard predictive variables, such as refinance incentive, credit score, and loan-to-value ratio, than in models that combine outcomes. The implication of these findings is that models that aggregate prepayment types do not adequately describe borrower motivations. |
| Keywords: | mortgage finance; prepayment; default; nested logit model |
| JEL: | D12 R21 |
| Date: | 2019–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:19-39&r=all |
| By: | Francis Bloch (Université Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics); Bhaskar Dutta (University of Warwick and Ashoka University); Stéphane Robin (Université de Lyon); Min Zhu (Beijing Normal University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on laboratory experiments on the formation of partnerships in social networks. Agents randomly request favors and turn to their neighbors to form a partnership where they commit to provide the favor when requested. The formation of a partnership is modeled as a sequential game, which admits a unique subgame perfect equilibrium resulting in the formation of the maximum number of partnerships. Experimental results show that a large fraction of the subjects (75%) play according to their subgame perfect equilibrium strategy and reveals that the efficient maximum matching is formed over 78% of the times. When subjects deviate from their best responses, they accept to form partnerships too early. The incentive to accept when it is optimal to reject is positively correlated with subjects’ risk aversion, and players employ simple heuristics – like the presence of a captive partner – to decide whether they should accept or reject the formation of a partnership. |
| Keywords: | social networks, partnerships, matchings in networks, non-stationary networks, laboratory experiments |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:05&r=all |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R. |
| Abstract: | In most multi-cultural Anglo-Saxon countries, children of Asian immigrants have higher academic achievement than children of native-born parents. Yet, little is known about their relative non-cognitive performance. This study is the first to compare the non-cognitive skills of children of Asian immigrants and children of native-born Australian parents and seek to understand the evolution of non-cognitive skills. We find large differences in non-cognitive skill development between children of Asian immigrants and children of parents from other ethnicity groups. Furthermore, the nativity gaps in non-cognitive skills vary significantly by informants of non-cognitive skills, types of non-cognitive skills and children’s ages. According to teacher ratings, children of Asian immigrants are found to excel in almost all non-cognitive attributes, particularly after school entry ages. By contrast, Asian immigrant parents rated their children lower in some selected non-cognitive attributes and at early ages. Adopting a cumulative value-added regression model and an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, this paper shows differences in initial child non-cognitive abilities, parenting styles and children’s time allocations are the most important factors explaining the ethnic non-cognitive skill gap. Moreover, ethnic differences in parenting styles and children’s time allocations both contribute to reducing the ethnic gap in non-cognitive skills. By contrast, differences in other child or household characteristics explain very little of the ethnic non-cognitive skill gap. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Non-cognitive skills,Time Use Diary,Second-generation Immigrants,Australia |
| JEL: | J13 J15 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:205801&r=all |
| By: | Mauro Caselli; Paolo Falco |
| Abstract: | Italian voters are assigned to a specific polling station according to their address. After an election, candidates know how many votes they received in each polling station. When the number of voters per polling stations is low and candidates are many, this jeopardises the secrecy of voting and candidates can more easily detect deviations from pre-electoral pledges. Exploiting variation in the number of voters per polling station across cities and over time, combined with rich data on politicians in office in all Italian municipalities between 1989 and 2015, we estimate the effect of voter density on the probability of re-election for local politicians. We find that when the number of voters per polling station is lower (and secrecy is at greater risk), incumbents have a higher probability of re-election. The analysis addresses the potential endogeneity of voter density. The results are stronger in regions with lower social capital and worse institutions. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econwp:_26&r=all |
| By: | Orrenius, Pia M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Zavodny, Madeline (University of North Florida) |
| Abstract: | Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims. In fact, research overwhelmingly indicates that immigrants are less likely than similar U.S. natives to commit violent and property crimes, and that areas with more immigrants have similar or lower rates of violent and property crimes than areas with fewer immigrants. There are relatively few studies specifically of criminal behavior among unauthorized immigrants, but the limited research suggests that these immigrants also have a lower propensity to commit crime than their native-born peers, although possibly a higher propensity than legal immigrants. Evidence about legalization programs is consistent with these findings, indicating that a legalization program reduces crime rates. Meanwhile, increased border enforcement, which reduces unauthorized immigrant inflows, has mixed effects on crime rates. A large-scale legalization program, which is not currently under serious consideration, has more potential to improve public safety and security than several other policies that have recently been proposed or implemented. |
| Keywords: | crime; immigration; public safety |
| JEL: | J18 J61 K14 |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1905&r=all |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke B.; Le, Huong Thu; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine; Zubrick, Stephen R. |
| Abstract: | In most multi-cultural Anglo-Saxon countries, children of Asian immigrants have higher academic achievement than children of native-born parents. Yet, little is known about their relative non-cognitive performance. This study is the first to compare the non-cognitive skills of children of Asian immigrants and children of native-born Australian parents and seek to understand the evolution of non-cognitive skills. We find large differences in non-cognitive skill development between children of Asian immigrants and children of parents from other ethnicity groups. Furthermore, the nativity gaps in non-cognitive skills vary significantly by informants of non-cognitive skills, types of non-cognitive skills and children’s ages. According to teacher ratings, children of Asian immigrants are found to excel in almost all non-cognitive attributes, particularly after school entry ages. By contrast, Asian immigrant parents rated their children lower in some selected non-cognitive attributes and at early ages. Adopting a cumulative value-added regression model and an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, this paper shows differences in initial child non-cognitive abilities, parenting styles and children’s time allocations are the most important factors explaining the ethnic non-cognitive skill gap. Moreover, ethnic differences in parenting styles and children’s time allocations both contribute to reducing the ethnic gap in non-cognitive skills. By contrast, differences in other child or household characteristics explain very little of the ethnic non-cognitive skill gap. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Non-cognitive skills, Time Use Diary, Second-generation Immigrants, Australia |
| JEL: | J13 J15 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96785&r=all |
| By: | Sander WAGNER (CREST, ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Ivaylo D. PETEV (CREST, CNRS, Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Economic transactions on online peer-to-peer platforms depend on buyers and sellers revealing personal information to facilitate exchanges with the unintended consequence that the information may become a source for discrimination. Using original panel data we show evidence of substantial discrimination against Arab/Muslim hosts in Airbnb’s online rental market in Paris, France. Analysis of 41-months of online transaction data shows a substantial increase in discrimination following large-scale, deadly terrorist attacks in November 2015. Discrimination results in a foregone monthly revenue of at least 106 US dollars for Arab/Muslim hosts in the year before the November 2015 attacks, after which losses increase to at least 178 US dollars. Our results demonstrate the association of mass terrorism with a contraction of a large-scale market of the sharing economy, the cost of which falls disproportionately upon members of an ethnic and religious minority. |
| Date: | 2019–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2019-22&r=all |
| By: | Sahebali, M. W. W.; Sadowski, Bert M.; Nomaler, O.; Brennenraedts, R. |
| Abstract: | Within the growing literature on next generation network (NGN), much research has focused on infrastructure competition and spatial effects driving investment incentives in NGN provision. However, less attention has been paid to the dynamic factors explaining NGN rollout. The purpose of this paper is to examine the geographical effects of NGN rollout by utilizing basic data mining techniques in conjunction with exploratory spatial data analysis. In explaining NGN rollout, the paper derives a dynamic geographical model on NGN provision and examines it empirically by focusing on the spatial and temporal effects driving NGN development in the Netherlands. The paper confirms previous research on market uncertainty and the techno-economics of NGN development, but shows, in addition, that more specific factors related to local effects and demand uncertainty are vital in explaining NGN rollout. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse19:205210&r=all |
| By: | Ling Fang; Martin Kleimann; Yuan Li; Hans-Jörg Schmerer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies regional treatment effects of infrastructure projects on economic growth, employment and intermodal transport volumes. The recent Belt and Road Initiative provides an experiment that can be evaluated using matching econometrics. Our results show that the establishment of a new railway connection is not systematically associated with short-run economic growth. However, it spurs employment and road freight by stimulating intermodal transport. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, development, trade |
| JEL: | F00 F15 F19 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7923&r=all |
| By: | Eckert, Fabian (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Ganapati, Sharat (Georgetown University); Walsh, Conor (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We study a group of service industries that are skill-intensive, widely traded, and have recently seen explosive wage growth. Between 1980 and 2015, these “Skilled Tradable Services” accounted for a sharply increasing share of employment among the highest earning Americans. Unlike any other sector, their wage growth was strongly biased toward the densest local labor markets and the highest paying firms. These services alone explain 30% of the increase in inequality between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the wage distribution. We offer an explanation for these patterns that highlights the complementarity between the non-rivalry of knowledge and changes in communication costs. |
| Keywords: | Wage inequality; Skill biased; Technological change; Urban growth; Trade and geography |
| JEL: | J31 O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:0025&r=all |
| By: | Dobbie, Will (Harvard Kennedy School and NBER.); Grönqvist, Hans (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University); Priks, Mikael (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run out-comes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous varia-tion in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen crime and significant decreases in educational attainment and adult employment. The effects are concentrated among children from the most disadvantaged families, where criminal convictions increase by 10 percentage points, high school graduation decreases by 25 percentage points, and employment at age 25 decreases by 29 percentage points. In contrast, there are no detectable effects among children from more advantaged families. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior, even in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets. |
| Keywords: | incarceration; causal effects; childrens outcomes |
| JEL: | J10 |
| Date: | 2019–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2019_024&r=all |
| By: | Davor Kunovac (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia); Karlo Kotarac (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the house price index (HPI) based on the data of the Tax Administration of the Republic of Croatia, constructed in cooperation between the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Croatian National Bank (CNB). The paper also shows how developed econometric models and the Tax Administration database may be used for the (mass) valuation of residential property. |
| Keywords: | residential property prices, hedonic regression, time dummy index, generalised additive models, two-dimensional spline |
| JEL: | R30 R32 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hnb:survey:37&r=all |
| By: | Hinrichs, Peter (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | Prior research suggests that statewide affirmative action bans reduce minority enrollment at selective colleges while leaving overall minority college enrollment unchanged. However, the effect of these bans on across-college racial segregation has not yet been estimated. This effect is theoretically ambiguous due to a U-shaped relationship across colleges between minority enrollment and college selectivity. This paper uses variation in the timing of affirmative action bans across states to estimate their effects on racial segregation as measured by standard exposure and dissimilarity indexes, finding that affirmative action bans have increased segregation across colleges in some cases but reduced it in others. In particular, early affirmative action bans in states with highly selective public universities appear to be associated with less segregation, whereas more recent affirmative action bans appear to be associated with more segregation. |
| Keywords: | affirmative action; college admissions; higher education; segregation; |
| JEL: | I24 I28 J15 |
| Date: | 2019–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:163601&r=all |
| By: | Fulford, Scott L. (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Stavins, Joanna (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Buying a house changes a household’s balance sheet by simultaneously reducing liquidity and introducing mortgage payments, which may leave the household more exposed to other shocks. We find that this change affects credit card use in two ways: A debt effect increases credit card spending, while a credit effect leads to higher credit limits. In the short run, a new mortgage acquisition has a robust and statistically significant positive effect on credit card utilization — the fraction of a consumer’s credit card limit that is used — of approximately 11 percentage points. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the credit effect exceeded the debt effect in the long run, pushing down long-term utilization. In our sample period after the financial crisis, the debt effect dominated in the long run, and credit card utilization rates rose upon the acquisition of a new mortgage, consistent with larger down payments leaving households more constrained. |
| Keywords: | credit cards; mortgage; credit card utilization; debt |
| JEL: | D14 E21 |
| Date: | 2019–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:19-8&r=all |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Prithwiraj Choudhury; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the presence of migrant inventors and the dynamics of innovation in the migrants’ receiving countries. We find that countries are 25 to 50 percent more likely to gain advantage in patenting in certain technologies given a twofold increase in the number of foreign inventors from other nations that specialize in those same technologies. For the average country in our sample this number corresponds to only 25 inventors and a standard deviation of 135. We deal with endogeneity concerns by using historical migration networks to instrument for stocks of migrant inventors. Our results generalize the evidence of previous studies that show how migrant inventors "import" knowledge from their home countries which translate into higher patenting. We complement our results with micro-evidence showing that migrant inventors are more prevalent in the first bulk of patents of a country in a given technology, as compared to patents filed at later stages. We interpret these results as tangible evidence of migrants facilitating the technology-specific diffusion of knowledge across nations. |
| Keywords: | Innovation;Migration;Patent;Technology;Knowledge |
| JEL: | O31 O33 F22 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-13&r=all |
| By: | Quintero Rojas, Coralia Azucena; Viianto, Lari Artur |
| Abstract: | The incorporation of women into the labor market remains a challenge for most countries; likewise, gender gaps are observed in indicators such as employment, unemployment and participation. In this paper we study the role of social norms in the labor market performance per gender; that is, how gender gaps arise from conservative gender roles. To this end, we construct an agent-based model where discrimination appears when information on job vacancies is transmitted within a social network with preference to a given gender. Networks are defined by size, closeness and links per family. Our results show that: Social networks enhance the chance of getting a job. Discrimination deepens gender gaps. Discrimination does not favor the employment situation of households, since the share of non-income households (both members unemployed) is not reduced. Rather, discrimination reduces the number of two-income households in favor of the single-income households where only the man is employed. |
| Keywords: | social networks, social norms, gender inequality, discrimination, labor markets, economic systems. |
| JEL: | C63 D85 J71 |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96752&r=all |
| By: | Athreya, Kartik B. (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Mather, Ryan (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City); Sanchez, Juan M. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using a rich-estimated-dynamic model to measure the financial distress channel, we find that these two facts amplify the aggregate drop in consumption by 7 percent and 45 percent respectively. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; Credit Card; Mortgage; Bankruptcy; Foreclosure; Delinquency; Financial Distress; Great Recession |
| JEL: | D31 D58 E21 E44 G11 G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2019–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-025&r=all |
| By: | Cosman, Jacob; Schiff, Nathan |
| Abstract: | We examine the response to entry in a large market with differentiated products using a novel longitudinal dataset of over 550,000 New York City restaurant menus from 68 consecutive weeks. We compare “treated” restaurants facing a nearby entrant to “control” restaurants with no new competition, matching restaurants using location characteristics and a pairwise distance measure based on menu text. Restaurants frequently adjust prices and product offerings, but we find no evidence that they respond differentially to new competition. However, restaurants in the top entry decile are 5% more likely to exit after a year than restaurants in the lowest entry decile. |
| Keywords: | spatial competition, monopolistic competition, product differentiation, entry |
| JEL: | D22 D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96617&r=all |
| By: | Garriga, Carlos (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Hedlund, Aaron (University of Missouri ; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis of the past decade has shaken the research and policy worlds out of their belief that housing markets are mostly benign and immaterial for understanding economic cycles. Instead, a growing consensus recognizes the central role that housing plays in shaping economic activity, particularly during large boom and bust episodes. This article discusses the latest research regarding the causes, consequences, and policy implications of housing crises with a broad focus that includes empirical and structural analysis, insights from the 2000's experience in the United States, and perspectives from around the globe. Even with the significant degree of heterogeneity in legal environments, institutions, and economic fundamentals over time and across countries, several common themes emerge to guide current and future thinking in this area. |
| Keywords: | housing; mortgages; debt; crisis; foreclosure |
| JEL: | D31 D83 E21 E22 G11 G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2019–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-033&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Grjebine; Jérôme Héricourt; Fabien Tripier |
| Abstract: | The creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999 was expected to become a catalyst for real convergence in Europe. Far from being the case, real divergence increased from the early 1990s as evidenced by low productivity growth in the "periphery" of the Euro area relative to "core" countries. This report investigates the role of sectoral reallocation in this divergence, focusing on three archetypal countries: France, Germany, and Spain. Using the EU-KLEMS database of sectoral Total Factor Productivity (TFP), we first show that sector reallocations have been at the origin of productivity losses in the considered countries and contributed significantly to this divergence. Second, we investigate how the substantially diverging real estate prices between these countries could explain those sectoral reallocations. More specifically, when access to external finance is restricted due to financial frictions, real estate assets may be used as collateral by borrowers to relax these constraints and increase investments. Real estate shocks turn out to be a strong driver of productivity divergence, causing the lag of Spain behind Germany before the Great Recession and that of France afterwards. For comparison purpose, we also shed light on the role of sectoral reallocation in the UK productivity puzzle. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_15&r=all |
| By: | Bloise, Francesco; Chironi, Daniela; Pianta, Mario |
| Abstract: | The evolution of voting in Italy’s general elections from 1994 to 2018 is investigated in this paper at the regional level, exploring the role of inequality, changes in incomes, wealth levels, precarisation of jobs and unemployment. Using a novel regional database combining voting results, incomes of employees and household revenues and wealth, we explore the drivers of non-voting, and of the shares of votes for mainstream parties, Lega and Five Star Movement in total electors. The results of our econometric models show that inequality, lack of wealth and precarisation are closely associated to the regional patterns of Italy’s electoral change. While political, ideological and cultural variables are important factors in Italy’s political upheaval, economic conditions appear to play a key role. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, elections, Italian regions |
| JEL: | A13 H5 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96416&r=all |
| By: | Eicke, Anselm; Khanna, Tarun; Hirth, Lion |
| Abstract: | The location of new power generation capacity has a significant effect on the need for transmission infrastructure. Newly constructed power plants that are located far from consumption centers increase network losses, investment, and potentially congestion. In addition, lack of public acceptance for transmission extension may increase the relevance of geographical steering of generation investments. The primary objective of this paper is to compare the regulatory instruments that provide locational investment signals. We cluster these instruments into the five groups locational electricity markets, deep grid connection charges, grid usage charges, capacity mechanisms, and renewable energy support schemes. We discuss properties of these instruments and then review their use in twelve major power systems, including a quantitative estimate of their strength. We find that most power systems use multiple instruments in parallel and that there is a lack of consensus regarding how to steer generation capacity. The results also indicate that the efficacy of many instruments is reduced due to a lack of credibility, low levels of transparency, and insufficient spatial and temporal granularity. |
| Keywords: | Investment signal,Generators,Network infrastracture,Locational steering,Regulation,Locational electricity market,Grid usage charge,Grid connection charge,Capacity mechanism,Renewable energy support scheme |
| JEL: | Q48 Q41 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:205237&r=all |
| By: | Haotian Zhong; Wei Li; Marlon G. Boarnet |
| Abstract: | The lack of longitudinal studies of the relationship between the built environment and travel behavior has been widely discussed in the literature. This paper discusses how standard propensity score matching estimators can be extended to enable such studies by pairing observations across two dimensions: longitudinal and cross-sectional. Researchers mimic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and match observations in both dimensions, to find synthetic control groups that are similar to the treatment group and to match subjects synthetically across before-treatment and after-treatment time periods. We call this a two-dimensional propensity score matching (2DPSM). This method demonstrates superior performance for estimating treatment effects based on Monte Carlo evidence. A near-term opportunity for such matching is identifying the impact of transportation infrastructure on travel behavior. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1911.00667&r=all |
| By: | Robert Rogers (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Hanoi, Vietnam); Doan Hai Ma (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Hanoi, Vietnam); Tra Nguyen (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Hanoi, Vietnam); Anh Ngoc Nguyen (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Previous research shows that Early Childhood Education (ECE) positively impacts cognitive outcomes later in life. Few studies examine the impacts of time spent in ECE in developing countries. We use data from the Young Lives project in Vietnam with 2SLS regressions to estimate the impact of years spent in ECE on cognitive outcomes in adolescence. We find that one extra year in ECE corresponds to 21.8 percentage point (1.25 SD) and 30.8 percentage point (2.78 SD) increases in math and verbal cognition scores, respectively. Our estimates suggest that ECE is highly effective in Vietnam and is a potential strategy for bridging educational outcomes gaps. |
| Keywords: | early childhood education; education outcomes; Vietnam; cognitive outcomes. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0118&r=all |
| By: | Lee, Sanghoon (University of British Columbia); Lee, Seung Hoon (Georgia Institute of Technology); Lin, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country’s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | International migration; quality of life; GDP |
| JEL: | D63 F22 I31 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:19-33&r=all |
| By: | Francis Bloch (Université Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics); Bhaskar Dutta (University of Warwick and Ashoka University); Mihai Manea (Stony Brook University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the formation of partnerships in social networks. Players need favors at random times and ask their neighbors in the network to form exclusive long-term partnerships that guarantee reciprocal favor exchange. Refusing to provide a favor results in the automatic removal of the underlying link. Players agree to provide the ï¬ rst favor in a partnership only if they otherwise face the risk of eventual isolation. In equilibrium, players essential for realizing every maximum matching can avoid this risk and enjoy higher payoffsthaninessentialplayers.Althoughthesearchforpartnersisdecentralizedandreflects local partnership opportunities, the strength of essential players drives efficient partnership formation in every network. Equilibrium behavior is determined by the classiï¬ cation of nodes in the Gallai-Edmonds decomposition of the underlying network. |
| Keywords: | networks, efficiency, decentralized markets, partnerships, favor exchange, maximum matchings, Gallai-Edmonds decomposition, under-demanded. |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:09&r=all |
| By: | Opeyemi Akinyemi (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Uchenna Efobi (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Evans Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Philip Alege (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the extent to which regional integration can be a viable tool in driving energy sustainability in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sub-region of Africa, and vice versa. It examines the existing opportunities and the attendant challenges for improved firms’ productivity in the sub-region through the appraisal of the ECOWAS West African Power Pool (WAPP). Using three measures of energy sustainability, namely: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability; the study presents the performance of the ECOWAS sub-region in ensuring regional integration for energy sustainability. The findings from the study reveal, inter alia, that there are prospects and benefits for energy integration for sustainable development in the region. Though some progress had been made, there are many challenges. Also, where progress had been made, it is not uniform across the sub-region, though factors such as rising population and political instability could be responsible. It is recommended that the political economy surrounding regional energy integration should be given a priority among the Member States to ensure that there is positive political will for speedy achievement of set goals. Also, investment in human capital to manage the different projects and maintain the facilities cannot be overemphasised. |
| Keywords: | ECOWAS, Energy, Green growth, Sustainable development, Regional Integration |
| JEL: | F15 P28 Q43 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:19/081&r=all |
| By: | Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz; Nora Nezamuddin; Reema Al Hassan; Abdelrahman Muhsen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the methodology for estimating total freight transport activity (FTA) for three countries — China, India and Saudi Arabia — with the objective of building on current state-of-the-art transportation modeling in three key areas: Studying the relationship between nighttime lights (NTL) and FTA allows for an estimation of full transportation datasets for countries where only a few observation points exist or where data is unavailable. Establishing the foundation for future work on how to use this approach in transport flow estimation (origin-destination matrices). Determining whether this approach can be used globally, given the coverage of the satellite data used. The paper uses the KAPSARC Transport Analysis Framework (KTAF), which estimates transport activity from freely available global data sources, satellite images and NTL. It is a tool for estimating freight transport activity that can be used in models to measure the impact of an accelerated transport policy planning approach. The methodology offers a solution to inadequate data access and allows for scenario building in policy planning for transportation. This approach allows for quick estimation of the effects of policy measures and economic changes on transportation activities at a global level. The paper also includes a detailed guide on how to replicate the methodology used in this analysis. |
| Keywords: | Freight Modeling, KAPSARC Transport Analysis Framework (KTAF), Nighttime lights satelite data, Transportation |
| Date: | 2019–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2019-mp07&r=all |
| By: | Cicatiello, Lorenzo; Ercolano, Salvatore; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio; Parenti, Benedetta |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters represent a challenge for policy-makers both for the immediate aftermath and for the mid- and long-term consequences. Knowing the reaction of the struck communities is an invaluable help for planning and implementing informed policies. Embracing such a perspective, this paper aims to provide empirical evidence about the effect that natural disasters exert on the marriage rates reported by the struck communities. The analysis is focused on L’Aquila earthquake that occurred in 2009 and stroke a number of municipalities in the Abruzzo Region in Southern Italy. We exploit a natural experiment setting via a difference-in-differences design, using highly disaggregate data (municipality level) in order to assess whether the shock caused by the L’Aquila earthquake in 2009 resulted in a substantial variation of the marriage rate in the municipalities hit more severely by the natural disaster. We find that the municipalities that payed a higher toll show an increasing higher marriage rate with respect to those that did not experienced major damages. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters, marriage rates, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J12 J13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96712&r=all |
| By: | Paul Gomme; Gazi Mohammad Jamil; Tatyana Koreshkova; Damba Lkhagvasuren |
| Date: | 2019–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2019rp-14&r=all |