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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Yuanrui Hu; Ping Lyu |
| Abstract: | Research purposes: Starting from the relationship between population policy and housing market, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of talent introduction policy on local housing price, so as to provide basis for the corresponding policy adjustment. Research methods: theoretical mechanism analysis, quantitative empirical analysis. Research content: From the perspective of human capital theory, this paper explores the mechanism of talent introduction policy on housing price, including "government-oriented effect" and "human capital effect". Based on the macro-data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Wind, Habitat and other institutions, through the analysis of DID-PSM, we find that the policy of talent introduction has a net effect on the local housing price. The urban housing price increase of the policy of talent introduction is obviously higher than that of other cities of the same grade in the same period, showing the characteristics of unstable rise. The conclusion is that the policy of talent introduction has led to the realization of quantity growth and spatial agglomeration of human capital in the cities where the policy was issued in a short period of time, which are the important reasons for the two core characteristics of rising house prices. The greater the policy effect of talent introduction policy is, the higher the local housing price will be. Most of the housing price growth brought by human capital belongs to the "rigid demand", but we should also be alert to the speculative behavior of real estate under the "government-oriented effect", which can easily lead to the excessive growth of housing prices and create resistance to the introduction of talents. |
| Keywords: | DID-PSM; Housing Price; human capital; the policy of talent introduction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_107&r=all |
| By: | Anne Wenche Emblem; Theis Theisen |
| Abstract: | Over the last decades, there has been considerable interest in the use of tolls on cars driving into towns. Not only has this been a hot political topic; this issue has also attracted substantial attention from economists. The focus in most of the economics literature has been on how tolls impact traffic volumes, and on how tolls may be used to reduce negative externalities of car use. Less attention has been devoted to how property values and house prices inside and outside toll rings may be affected. From the urban economics literature, it is however well known, that local commuters’ cost of accessing centrally located amenities and work-places will be discounted into house prices. The magnitude of this effect will be contingent on the extent to which tolls also reduce congestion, external effects related to noise, etc. Moreover, since the imposition of a toll ring will alter the long-run spatial equilibrium of a town and the surrounding area, it will set into motion processes of sorting and re-location of households, and possibly also a re-location of some work-places. Consequently, the effects of tolls on house prices may be quite different in the short-run and long-run.In this paper we aim to determine the long-run impact of a toll ring on house prices. In order to assess how much a household initially residing outside the toll ring may gain from relocating to a dwelling within the toll ring we construct a simple household model for choice of location. In the empirical part of the paper we exploit a sample of about 15000 dwellings sold during an eight-year period in the Norwegian town of Kristiansand. We estimate various hedonic house price functions that account for not only whether the house lies within the toll ring or not, but also the precise location of houses and the distance from houses to important amenities. Accounting for other factors beside that of toll, that may impact the sales price of a house, is important in order to identify the impact of the toll ring on house prices. Our findings indicate that introducing a toll ring increases the price of houses located inside this ring with 3 percent. We expect that our findings will be useful in the discussion on establishing toll rings around towns, and on road pricing in general. These issues are particularly relevant for the Norwegian context, where tolls recently have become increasingly more important, not only as means to reduce congestion and other negative externalities, but also as a part of financing the construction of new roads. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; road toll |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_151&r=all |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladiran; Anupam Nanda |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom, like other OECD countries, has attracted a high number of immigrants from around the world in the last half-century. The liberalisation of immigration for commonwealth citizens between 1948 and 1972 and subsequent accession to the European Economic Community afterward set the stage for the heterogeneity of the UK population. Housing is an intrinsic element of an immigrant’s voyage and is typically linked with local and regional spatial patterns. Thus, the UK regional and local spatial dynamics may also be linked to the dynamic forces of immigration waves to the UK in the last half-century. Anecdotal evidence suggests that immigrants in the UK prefer to settle in the South-east of England compared to other regions of the UK. London particularly houses approximately 2.8 million immigrants, which is over 40% of the total immigrant stock, thus, immigrant and ethnic clusters are entrenched and expanding. Literature reveals that factors such as regional economics, regional housing markets, regional labour markets, and urban dynamics are key determinants of regional and metropolitan spatial patterns. Furthermore, individual taste and preferences, socio-economic factors, demographic factors, and socio-cultural factors also play major roles in defining local and neighbourhood patterns. This paper aims to empirically analyse other factors which may be influencing regional and local spatial patterns of natives and non-natives beyond the conventional factors accounted for in literature, and on a multi-generational scale. Using the UK Longitudinal Survey data which captures the demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and spatial patterns of natives and non-natives, we model the spatial patterns of UK natives and multiple generations of non-natives. Our core interest is to find out particularly why South-east England and the Greater London areas receive a higher proportion of migrants compared to other parts of the UK despite the affordability challenges in these areas. Furthermore, we analyse the effects of immigrant clusters on the spatial patterns of natives. By analysing the regional and local patterns of immigrants, we can improve insight on the social and economic integration of first and second-generation immigrants. Furthermore, we are able to identify the unique patterns of second-generation immigrants and compare these to natives and to first-generation immigrants in a unique way that has previously not been applied to spatial modelling. Additionally, by mapping the spatial patterns of natives and multiple generations of non-natives, we can link these patterns to housing demand, rents and house prices at regional, metropolitan, local and neighbourhood levels. More fundamentally, the impact of immigrants on the local economy is a highly debatable topic globally, hence the findings will improve insight for policymakers, urban planners, housing economists, and political economists. |
| Keywords: | housing; Immigrant generations; Migration; Spatial Modelling; United Kingdom |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_39&r=all |
| By: | Aurélien Decamps; Frederic Gaschet; Guillaume Pouyanne; Stephane Virol |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the formation of urban and suburban employment centralities and their impact on local housing values. Urban sprawl combined with the formation of suburban employment poles have produced complex spatial patterns, characterized by polycentric cities. This paper assumes that these changes in urban forms have influenced residential dynamics and have thus influenced housing prices. Suburban centralities are expected to improve local attractiveness and thus to be capitalized in housing prices.We use hedonic regressions to estimate the impact of the polycentric structure of the city on housing values, among other traditional factors. These estimations are completed by semi-parametric regressions in order to analyse sharply the form of the price gradients in a polycentric city. Data on residential transactions come from the PERVAL database recorded by French notary offices. The precise geolocation of transactions is used, in addition to a rich set of intrinsic characteristics of the buildings, to estimation sharply the spatial pattern of real estate prices. It is completed by a rich set of locational attributes coming from several data sources recorded at a fine spatial scale and covering accessibility, socio-economic attributes, local amenities and equipments, distance to the main subcenters. The study is conducted within the Lyon and Bordeaux metropolitan areas in France, allowing a comparison of two different urban patterns and urban sizes. The various scales of urban polycentrism are explored by taking into account two types of subcenters (emerging centralities in the suburban area and integration of satellite towns) and by estimating semi-parametric hedonic models. The first contribution of the paper is to estimate the impact of the polycentric form of the city on housing prices. The spatial pattern of housing prices is mainly explained by the increasing influence of urban amenities, at the expect of employment accessibility. The second contribution of this paper is to provide a precise estimation of the form of the hedonic gradients for residential and commercial real estate values through the use of semi-parametric regressions. |
| Keywords: | amenities; Centralities; Hedonic Model; Housing Prices; Polycentric city |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_347&r=all |
| By: | Jianfei Li; Ioulia Ossokina; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | HARA is a land-use model that uses a search algorithm to find the optimal spatial allocation of new housing demands in an urban plan area. In the model, the plan area is represented as a grid of cells. A core element of the algorithm is a function that is used to evaluate the value of a cell for each possible land-use given its location. An optimum is found by stepwise improving an initial allocation based on the value function. In this paper we show that the value function can be specified as the net value of a (housing) development given the land costs, the construction costs and the market value of the development at a location. Specified in that way the solution generated represents an optimum as well as a market equilibrium (maximum net value for developers). A critical prerequisite for this is, however, that the value-function is specified such that it accurately represent buyers’ willingness-to-pay for dwelling and location characteristics in the housing market. In the paper, we show how the value function can be estimated using hedonic price analysis. The analysis is carried out based on a large housing transaction data set from The Netherlands. The trade-off between living in a green environment and having high-level urban facilities in the proximity of the residential location is of special interest for housing planning. This trade-off has become more significant even given the growing environmental concerns for creating climate-adapted as well as compact cities. We present the results of an application of the estimated model where we investigate the nature of this trade-off and the impact this has on the green-versus-compact character of urban development. We anticipate that the trade-off may change with the increasing importance of good climate performance (robustness for extreme weather conditions). Using the model as an experimentation tool, we consider what the impacts of changes in the trade-off will be for the spatial planning of housing. |
| Keywords: | Climate adapted city; Hedonic price analysis; Housing Planning; Land-use modeling; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_131&r=all |
| By: | Bonakdar, Said Benjamin |
| Abstract: | In contrast to previous research, I hypothesize that residential segregation patterns do not only result from an individual's perception of different ethnicities, but is rather affected by housing market interactions and socioeconomic endowment, like income and education. I implement a theoretical agent-based model, which contains three main features: agents' socioeconomic endowment, the quantification of one's Willingness-to-Stay within a neighborhood and housing market interactions if an agent decides to move. The results indicate that housing market interactions, the valuation of socioeconomic factors, but also the increasing share of minority groups diminish the absolute level of racial segregation. The analysis shows that house price clusters dominate urban areas, since individuals have an incentive to stay in more expensive neighborhoods in which they made a bargain. An increase in house price segregation can be observed if individuals strongly undervalue their own house and if individuals have higher access to credit. I can show that these market interactions lead to lock-in effects for low-income individuals, since they lack the necessary budget and suffer under negative equity. Thus, residential segregation shows a strong dependency on housing market interactions and is more complex than presumed by Schelling's Spatial Model or the White Flight Hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | agent-based modelling,residential choice,housing demand,neighborhood characteristics,segregation |
| JEL: | C63 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:819&r=all |
| By: | Palm, Matthew; Niemeier, Deb |
| Abstract: | The Section 8 voucher program enables low-income residents to rent homes in the private market while receiving financial assistance to keep their housing affordable. Unfortunately, voucher holders are more likely to live in high poverty areas, and the traditional formula used by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) may be partly responsible. HUD sets Section 8 limits, known as Fair Market Rents (FMRs), based on the 40th percentile rent of each region. As a result, vouchers cannot be used in the more expensive parts of metropolitan areas where most of the rental units available are more expensive than that regional limit. HUD is now experimenting with recalculating the FMRs at the ZIP code level in select cities to correct this imbalance. These new geographic areas would be known as “Small Area Fair Market Rents” (SAFMRs). This brief summarizes findings from the project, which evaluated this HUD policy by calculating if a set of for-rent listings across California are accessible to a voucher holder under the current FMRs limits and again under the proposed SAFMRs limits. The rental listings, from a proprietary source, include data from 2012 and 2013. This brief focuses on results for the Sacramento Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado Counties. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, Employment, Housing, Land use planning, Policy analysis, Sustainable development, Transit oriented development, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9x06d45z&r=all |
| By: | Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge); Daniel da Mata (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Marcelo dos Santos (Insper) |
| Abstract: | Slums are prevalent in many developing country cities and are a critical feature of their landscape. Slums are characterized by the lack of well defined property rights and by precarious public infrastructure, such as access to improved water and sanitation. However, they allow poor households to live in the city close to where they work and enjoy agglomeration externalities. We investigate how slums are formed and how different urban related policies affect the structure of a city. We build a dynamic spatial environment in which agents are heterogenous in their labor productivity and they endogenously choose where and the type of housing mode (formal or informal) they live. We fit the model such that key macro and micro level moments of the city of Sao Paulo in Brazil are matched. We then implement counterfactual exercises to assess the role of urban land use and transportation policies on the city landscape and welfare of their citizens. We show that some policies can have non-trivial effects. For instance, a fall in transportation costs rises the overall efficiency of the city, which attracts more households to the city. Immigration from rural households increases house prices and lead to a substantial rise in slums on the border of the city. We also show that given the land use in a city, slums can be persistent over time even when the city adopts urban policies to foster formal housing. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:943&r=all |
| By: | Oluwadamilola Aguda; Obas John Ebohon; Chris Leishman |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationships between young adults’ housing tenure, social capital, and elements of perceived job security in Britain. Young adults are faced with different situations that continue to shape their housing consumptions and decisions. Socio-psychological dimension of housing tenure decisions has been receiving attention by housing market analysts and practitioners seeking deeper understandings of UK housing market dynamics, particularly in the wake of changing tastes and preferences of young people with regards to housing decisions across major cities of the world. More specifically, very little research has been done to investigate the contributions of social capital formation, for example, neighbourhood or social integration and social relations, separated by perceived job security, on housing tenure transitions among British young adults. The initial steps taken include a synthesis of existing literature and confirmation of data availability for the study. This will ensure existing efforts are not duplicated, opening up and further revealing how the current study may contribute to existing knowledge. A quantitative approach has been designed to analyse the data obtained from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). The hypothesis drawn is that individual young adult’s tenure mobility may vary by combinations of the direction of transition, social capital, and perceived job security. It is our view that findings from this study will significantly enhance our understanding of tenure shifts amongst young adults in the UK and provide property developers, local authorities, and central governments the knowledge and information to guide urban renewal towards achieving better social cohesion and sustainable communities. |
| Keywords: | housing tenure; Job Security; Neighbourhood Integration; Social Capital Formation; UK |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_54&r=all |
| By: | Yongheng Deng (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jing Wu; Yang Tang (Nanyang Technological University); ping wang (Washington University in St.Louis) |
| Abstract: | Housing and land prices in China have experienced dramatic growth in the past decade. In conjunction with the rapid growth, housing and land price dispersion across Chinese cities have also become more dispersed. This paper intends to explore how market frictions affect the aggregate as well as the spatial distribution of prices. We first document the spatial variations of housing and land market frictions. Larger cities receive less housing and land subsidizes. Land frictions are improving over time. We then embed both frictions into a dynamic competitive spatial equilibrium framework featured with endogenous rural-urban migration. The calibrated model can reasonably mimic the price growth in the data. The counter-factual results suggest that the frictionless economy leads to a slower housing price growth but faster land price growth. In addition, land frictions tend to inhibit land price growth while housing price growth will slow down if only housing frictions are eliminated. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1351&r=all |
| By: | Tidiane Ly (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, USI - Università della Svizzera italiana) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies local governments' public policies in a metropolitan area plagued by traffic congestion, where both residents and workers consume local public goods. We develop a new spatial sub-metropolitan tax competition model which features a central city surrounded by suburban towns linked by mobile capital and mobile residents who commute to work. We show that Pareto-efficiency is achieved if towns can retain their workers using labor subsidies. Otherwise, traffic congestion in the city is inefficiently high and local governments respond by setting inefficient public policies: (1) the city over-taxes capital and under-taxes residents, which leads to too little capital and too many residents in the city; (2) local public goods are under-provided in the city and over-provided in the towns. |
| Keywords: | Mobility,Tax competition,Urban economics,Traffic congestion,Public goods |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02283118&r=all |
| By: | Marko Kryvobokov |
| Abstract: | In the Walloon region, in Belgium, according to the recent Housing tenancy decree (2018), “the official rent calculator” should be developed to estimate “the reference rent” for any residential dwelling rented on the market. The “calculator” should be market-oriented and be based on individual property attributes and location. The rent estimation mechanism should geographically cover the region. Homogenous zones should be delimited according to rent levels observed on the market. For this purpose, the regional Rent Survey 2018 had collected data on rents and dwelling attributes for 4.112 observations. This geographically representative sample of the regional rental market provides data for the delineation of rental submarkets. The paper deals with the geographical aspect of the regional hedonic regression model of rents. The rental submarkets are delineated with a combination of the “location value response surface”, clustering and expert approach. The purpose of the study is, similarly to Leishman et al. (2013), to find the best way to model the identified submarkets. Three approaches are applied, namely (1) the overall model with dummy variables for submarkets, (2) the set of submodels for the submarkets and, finally, (3) the “location value” in the submarkets, i.e. the ratio of the observed rent to the rent predicted with a hedonic model without location attributes. Actually, the classical ordinary least squares (OLS) methodology is applied. The study should be developed using also the geographically weighted regression (GWR). On the one hand, the three approaches are compared according to standard econometric indicators, i.e. the explanatory power of models, the spatial autocorrelation of their residuals and the accuracy of ex-sample predictions. On the other hand, the practical motivation of the study implies the acceptance of the principles and the results of the methods by stakeholders, i.e. landlords, tenants and the regional government. While the set of submodels for the submarkets provides the best econometric performance according to the majority of indicators, this approach has an important drawback unacceptable for stakeholders: in submodels, some crucial structural variables, such as those for building type or building age, are often either insignificant or have an unexpected sign. This problem caused, at least partly, by limited size of sub-samples, manifest itself much less in the overall models with location dummies or with “location value”. The practical and econometric advantages and disadvantages of the two latter models are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic regression; location value; residential rent; Submarket; Wallonia |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_141&r=all |
| By: | Jay Mittal; Sweta Byahut |
| Abstract: | This research uses a hedonic Price modelling framework to assess the marginal implicit price effect of conservation easements (CE) lands on single family houses in Worcester, MA. The house price premium is anticipated with the growing visual accessibility from home to conservation easements lands. The CE lands of interest here are voluntarily protected, privately owned, scenic lands and are based in the urbanized area of City of Worcester, MA. The premium, and the visual accessibility was measured using the transaction of the surrounding homes, and homes spatial relationship with the CE lands. These protected CE lands are perpetually protected with natural, historic, and scenic characteristics that are attractive to the environmental amenity seekers. The home premiums as capitalized due to the visual accessibility of protected lands was measured using a combined weighted measure of ‘view’ and ‘proximity.' This was developed using the Huff's gravity model inspired index -- Gravity Inspired Visibility Index (GIVI). First, a detailed digital elevation model (DEM) raster with all view obstructing buildings and physicals structures stitched an the topography surface was generated and then the views and distances from homes to scenic lands were used to generate the GIVI, using the Viewshed analysis in ArcGIS. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) based hedonic model was then employed to measure the combined effect of both -- distance and view of scenic lands from each homes. Both the global (adjusted R sq =0.52, AICc =29,828) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) models (adjusted R sq = 0.59, AICc =29,729) estimated the price effect, and the GWR model outperformed the global model. The results from the GWR model indicated an average 3.4% price premium on the mean value of homes in the study area. The spatial variation in home premiums (as percentage values) was also found clearer and more spatially clustered in the GWR model. The highest premium value for select homes in the sample was found to be as high as 34.6% of the mean home price. This is a significant effect of visual accessibility to the preserved scenic lands for land conservation. This research offers a useful framework for evaluating the effect of land protection for land use planning, land conservation and for real estate valuation purposes. It also offers useful insights for conservation agencies, local governments, professional planners, and real estate professionals for prioritizing land sites with scenic views. |
| Keywords: | Conservation Easement (Environmental Amenity); Geographically weighted regression (GWR); Hedonic Price Modeling (HPM); Real Estate Valuation; Viewshed in GIS |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_242&r=all |
| By: | Burgess, Simon (University of Bristol); Greaves, Ellen (University of Bristol); Murphy, Richard J. (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | A common feature of public sector labor markets is the use of pay scales. This paper examines how the removal of pay scales impacts productivity, by exploiting a reform that compelled all schools in England to replace pay scales with school-designed performance related pay schemes. We find that schools in labor markets with better outside options for teachers saw relatively higher increases in teacher pay. Schools in these areas relatively increase their spending on teachers, have higher teacher retention and larger improvements in student tests scores. These effects are largest in schools with the high proportions of disadvantaged students. We conclude that the pay rigidities in the form of centralized pay schedules result in a misallocation of resources, by preventing such schools from retaining their teachers. |
| Keywords: | pay scales, teachers, performance related pay, productivity |
| JEL: | J33 I28 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12592&r=all |
| By: | Tunbosun Oyedokun; Neil Dunse; Colin Jones; Jinhyun Hong |
| Abstract: | Active travel continues to gain increasing policy attention and wider acceptance, especially in cities with strong commitment to environmental sustainability. Over the last decade, the promotion of active travel has moved from the fringes of urban transport policy to a much more central role in the planning of cities and their transport networks. Active or sustainable travel, as an alternative to motorised transport modes, is considered an efficient means of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions in cities while also helping active travellers to maintain quality health and wellbeing. Consequently, cities have continued to introduce policies as well as develop transport strategies that are aimed at ensuring adequate provision of active travel facilities (ATFs) in buildings. Commercial offices as workplace for a large proportion of the city dwellers, are expected to incorporate ATFs in their design to help in promoting active travel in cities. Active travel might be useful for achieving transport, health and green agenda, but its sustainability tends to depend on acceptance by property owners (who should provide relevant facilities) and occupiers (who should demand the facilities during letting). Property investors need to be convinced about the added-value potential of provision of ATFs in terms of lettability and rental value, and is a vital motivation for increased investment, which will help to sustain active travel agenda. However, there is a dearth of evidence whether making provision for ATFs is helping to raise the lettability and rental value of offices to justify their investment. Based on this premise, this study explores the link between active travel policies and the office property market, with a focus on facilities provision, lettability and attitudes of office owners and occupiers, using evidence from British popular bicycle cities. Preliminary findings from analysis of rent and building-specific data obtained from CoStar will be presented. |
| Keywords: | active travel facilities; cycling; lettability; Office Buildings; Rental value |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_193&r=all |
| By: | Bertoni, Marco (University of Padova); Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); De Benedetto, Marco Alberto (University of Messina); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria) |
| Abstract: | We use the repeated random assignment of external examiners to school institutes in Italy to investigate whether the effect of external monitoring on test score manipulation persists over time. We find that this effect is still present in the tests taken one year after exposure to the examiners, and is stronger for open-ended questions, for small school institutes, and for institutes located in the northern and central regions of the country. In the second year after exposure, however, this effect disappears, suggesting that monitoring is a symptomatic treatment rather than a cure of score manipulation. We discuss learning, reputational concerns, peer pressure and teacher preferences as potential mechanisms behind our findings, and present some evidence on the role played by social capital and high stakes. |
| Keywords: | education, testing, external monitoring, long-run effects |
| JEL: | H52 I2 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12591&r=all |
| By: | Joseph-Alexander Zeitler; Sven Bienert |
| Abstract: | Demographic change has direct and indirect impact on the development and size of households and their housing demand. Households are becoming much smaller on average. Overall, the proportion of one- and two-person households will continue to rise. In 2040, four out of ten people, or more than a third, will live alone or in pairs. Due to the lack of appropriate apartments, this trend will have impact on the liquidity of apartments. On the other hand, there will be a surplus of larger apartments, which will become less attractive. This is also partly due to the enormous increase in rents in agglomeration areas. In addition to this, the single households will demand less space, even though living space has absolutely increased. In this respect, the present study tries to analyse the interrelationships between changes in household size and housing demand on liquidity of residential apartments, both for sale and rent. The research question therefore is, whether the change in population structure or housing preferences has an influence on the Time-on-Market (ToM) of real estate. There is no explicit model that incorporates both housing demand (choice of apartment type) and demographic variables on liquidity. The paper uses the well-established multivariate Cox proportional hazard model that explains the factors that influence the letting process of an apartment as a probability function while incorporating the dwelling- and market-specific characteristics. A broader knowledge of liquidity and the underlying factors is essential for assessing future market movements with respect to the buying, selling and rental process of real estate. Beyond exploring the hedonic characteristics, the paper should contribute to the existing literature by enhancing the modelling quality and introducing additional socioeconomic and sociographic variables to TOM modelling. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change; Housing demand characteristics; survival analysis; Time on Market; ToM |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_190&r=all |
| By: | Vsevolod Nikolaiev; Oleksii Kucherenko |
| Abstract: | The whole housing stock in Ukraine is practically private. Social housing fund is almost absent. In the 1990s most of the flats in the multi-apartment buildings have been privatized by the tenants free of charge. About 80% of all buildings in the cities have been built up to 1980, are not yet repaired and require urgent modernization with the cost equal to the actual State budget revenue. By the law of 2015 the responsibility for carrying out capital repairs has been transferred to the flat owners who are co-owners of the buildings. Maintenance management is organized only on the level of separate houses (no-associations) and is unprofessional. The tariff for housing services is enormous low because the component of capital repairs traditionally has been excluded. In the worst homes live exactly the poorest families which do not have any means to maintain and repair their houses because one half of all families in the country receive subsidies to pay their utility bills. Taking into account other urgent and costly needs to maintain public infrastructure the State is also unable to accumulate sufficient funds to renovate the housing stock. At the same time there is a difficult question of the justice of additional state assistance to homeowners for repairing their assets at the expense of all taxpayers. Another question is how to operate this private property on the market. Governments of the country that often replace each other are afraid to raise this problem, which requires extraordinary decisions. It becomes obvious that homeowners are mostly inefficient but the idea of re-privatization can cause social rejection. There are no analogues in the history or in other post-Soviet countries, where either the condition of privatized houses was better, or household incomes were higher, or state aid was regular and where, due to the tariff, funds for capital repairs has been always accumulated and used.Unfortunately, in Ukraine there is no tradition of real estate professional management as a scientific branch, university specialization or profession. Our first attempts to find right decisions which will be described in the paper need approbation. Therefore, we want to draw attention of the best European real estate managers and researchers to the resolution of this problem. |
| Keywords: | capital repair; Financing; housing stock; Privatization; Tenants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_191&r=all |
| By: | Palm, Matthew; Niemeier, Deb |
| Abstract: | California taxpayers have supported more than a billion dollars of bonds to support affordable infill housing in neighborhoods with access to rail transit. The cost of constructing subsidized affordable housing in California has significantly increased over the past several years, leading the Legislative Analyst’s Office to conclude that the state’s affordable housing construction programs alone cannot solve the state’s housing crisis. There has been limited analysis of the interactions between policies that prioritize affordable housing development in transit- and jobs-rich neighborhoods and the cost of affordable housing in general. To better understand this interaction, this project studied the key drivers of affordable housing production costs across four regional metropolitan areas in California: Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), and Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). This brief summarizes the findings of that study. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, Employment, Housing, Land use planning, Policy analysis, Sustainable development, Transit oriented development, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt37g1f9sk&r=all |
| By: | Marco Bertoni (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali "Marco Fanno", Università di Padova); Giorgio Brunello (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali "Marco Fanno", Università di Padova); Marco Alberto De Benedetto (Dipartimento di Economia, Università degli Studi di Messina,); Maria De Paola (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF, Università della Calabria) |
| Abstract: | We use the repeated random assignment of external examiners to school institutes in Italy to investigate whether the effect of external monitoring on test score manipulation persists over time. We find that this effect is still present in the tests taken one year after exposure to the examiners, and is stronger for open-ended questions, for small school institutes, and for institutes located in the northern and central regions of the country. In the second year after exposure, however, this effect disappears, suggesting that monitoring is a symptomatic treatment rather than a cure of score manipulation. We discuss learning, reputational concerns, peer pressure and teacher preferences as potential mechanisms behind our findings, and present some evidence on the role played by social capital and high stakes. |
| Keywords: | education, testing, external monitoring, long-run effects |
| JEL: | H52 I2 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clb:wpaper:201907&r=all |
| By: | Jan Eeckhout (University College London and Barcelona); Christoph Hedtrich (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Roberto Pinheiro (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | We present evidence showing that more expensive cities - measured by rental costs - have not only invested proportionately more in automation (measured by investment in Enterprise Resource Planning software) but also have seen a higher decrease in the share of routine abstract jobs (clerical workers and low-level white collar workers). We propose an equilibrium model of location choice by heterogeneously skilled workers where each location is a small open economy in the market for computers and software. We show that if computers are substitutes to middle skill workers - commonly known as the automation hypothesis - in equilibrium large and expensive cities invest more in computers and software, substituting middle skill workers with computers. Intuitively, in expensive cities, the relative benefit of substituting computers for routine abstract workers is higher, since workers must be compensated for the high local housing prices. Moreover, if the curvature of the production function is the same across skills, the model also delivers the thick tails in large cities' skill distributions presented by Eeckhout, Pinheiro, and Schmidheiny (2014). |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:581&r=all |
| By: | Chris Eves |
| Abstract: | An increasingly important issue facing developing cities is the requirement for more airports or more development of existing airports to cater for the increasing level of business, leisure and tourism air travel.In several major international cities, the airport is located in residential areas that have developed after the construction of the airport, with development further from the actual airport now under aircraft flight paths. In such residential affected suburbs, the issue of aircraft noise is raised, with an emphasis on the impact on property prices and values.There have been numerous research papers addressing the impact on price based on hedonic price models, with most of these studies showing a decline in prices for affected houses, and a smaller number of studies showing that location close to a major airport can result in higher prices due to the employment opportunities provided by major airports such as Heathrow, London.Although these studies have focussed on possible decreases or increases in house prices due to aircraft noise, there have been limited studies in relation to the long-term investment performance of houses under, adjoining or in view of aircraft flight paths and subject to aircraft noise.This paper analyses the residential property sales for 53 suburbs in Brisbane over the period 1988-2017 to assess the investment performance of these suburbs. The suburb selection includes those directly under the existing runway flight paths, several suburbs adjoining existing flight paths, and a range of suburbs that are currently not subject to aircraft noise but will be under the flight paths of the proposed second runway at Brisbane Airport that is under construction.The results show the long-term capital return based on median and average house prices, the long-term volatility and risk/return ratios for each suburb. These are compared based on the level of noise affectations. |
| Keywords: | Aircraft noise; capital growth; House Prices; Investment returns; property stigma |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_51&r=all |
| By: | Alexa Höing; Annette Kaempf-Dern |
| Abstract: | The real property value of the German government enfolds 800 billions of Euros. Considering the pattern of utilisation, school buildings and their associated sports facilities represent the biggest part in municipal real estate portfolios, often followed by the buildings for day-care centres and administrative buildings.Although there is a great interest from politicians and the general public in excellent education, since it is supposed to have a positive effect on the economic power of modern economies, school buildings are often neglected and measures are taken in case of immediate need only.Often, there is lack of anticipatory strategic planning such as by means of forecasts. Generally, only short-term operational measures are initiated and carried out without considering the life cycle of the real estate and the corresponding sub-portfolio in the overall context. In particular, the strategic perspective for determining the space and cost requirements for school buildings as a base for decision-making should, however, be given a higher priority.Therefore this article addresses the following questions: What is the current situation of municipal real estate management in Germany? Which strategies, structures and systems are used for real estate management? Are there differences in the planning of school buildings? What are the current decision-making processes in municipal real estate management using the example of school buildings? Who are the stakeholder/ agents in the decision-making process in municipal real estate management? According to which criteria are the responsibilities allocated? What are the strategic management approaches that could be useful for municipal real estate management? How do they consider future developments? What key factors are needed to forecast public real estate management? How do the respective factors influence each other and which factors may hinder each other out? Which future influencing factors are there? To what extent do they play a role in the municipal real estate portfolio?Design/methodology/approach: To identify fundamentals of decision making for municipal Real Estates and develop a theoretical background for strategic management in public real estate management, an intense literature review is conducted. Responsibilities of municipalities are surveyed in form of a standardised web-based questionnaire with different types of questions such as multiple-choice or also open-ended.Findings: Research findings will lead to recommendations for activities that support sustainable strategic management of municipalities that enable systematic strategies that address issues in local public real estate management. By providing checklists and explanations of applicable tools this research will ideally support, decision makers in the municipal level to develop a responsible planning of real estate management for school buildings, by providing them with different scenarios. |
| Keywords: | decision theory; Public Real Estate Management; Scenario Management; School Buildings; Strategic Management / Planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_341&r=all |
| By: | Rowangould, Dana; Karner, Alex; Wu, Yizheng; Igbinedion, Ofurhe; London, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Understanding the public health impacts of transportation plans can inform decision making and project prioritization. Because each plan and regional context is different, there is a need for site-specific methods to assess the extent and distribution of health impacts of changes to a region’s transportation system. To fill this need, researchers have developed the Integrated Transport and Health Impact Model (ITHIM), which predicts the public health impacts of transportation and land use scenarios from expected changes in air quality, traffic safety, and physical activity. However, current transportation health impact assessment models (including ITHIM) operate at coarse geographic scales (e.g., region or county) to quantify health changes. This research builds on previous work using ITHIM to generate demographically explicit health outcomes to provide neighborhood-level estimates of public health changes predicted from transportation plan scenarios in Sacramento, California. We assess the impacts of regional transportation plan scenarios on public health via changes in traffic injury and physical activity. Zip-code level results are mapped using a customizable web interface. Illustrative results indicate that the adopted regional transportation plan will lead to improved health outcomes, largely driven by the benefits of increased physical activity. However, these estimates vary widely across the region, with some communities expected to experience adverse impacts and others obtaining higher levels of benefit. We note that some of the variation may be the result of modeling noise, and we identify promising avenues for improving the robustness of estimates at small spatial scales. Disaggregation is important from sustainability and equity perspectives to determine the locations where and populations for whom the physical activity benefits of non-motorized transportation are outweighed by increased exposure to the risk of air pollution and injury or death. Providing an accessible, web-based tool to illustrate the effects of transportation plans and in communities across a region has the potential to elevate health and equity considerations in transportation decision making. The methods developed in this study can be refined and improved and applied elsewhere by modifying the source code, which is publicly available. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Medicine and Health Sciences, Decision support systems, Equity (Justice), Land use planning, Metropolitan planning organizations, Nonmotorized transportation, Performance measurement, Public health, Regional planning, Transportation planning, Websites (Information retrieval) |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7g81p3vb&r=all |
| By: | Koorosh Gharehbaghi; Kathryn Robson; Neville Hurst; Maged Georgy |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to review the abandoned "East West link road project" in Melbourne, Australia. Increased population growth, increasing life expectations and rates of family formation combine to place significant pressure on Melbourne’s infrastructure. In addition, the shift from rural to urban living -especially in Melbourne, exacerbates such impacts. Such demands expose the limitations of existing Melbourne transportation networks. As a consequence on-going transportation infrastructure planning is constantly required for greater Melbourne and its authorities, along with some alignment at the national level. Subsequently Melbourne transportation infrastructure planning needs to carefully adopt a long-term approach. While the processes of land acquisition, design and delivery of transportation infrastructure cannot be achieved in the short term, long-standing strategies need to be cautiously established. For Melbourne in particular, the financing of such long-term assets is problematic and thus possess uncertain conditions, especially when dealing with transportation forecasting and future modeling. Going back to mid-1990s such forward transportation planning was essential to ensure a high-level livability for Melbournians. As Melbourne continues to expand both in population and geographically it was to cope with such demand that the East West Link project was proposed. This project was seen as crucial, not only to uphold the livability status, but also to sustain and prolong Melbourne's ageing road transportation infrastructure. However, soon after their election win in late 2014, the Victorian labor government scrapped this project. In doing so, certain transportation outlook was unfortunately neglected. This paper investigates some of the key missed opportunities of the East West Link project. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; Traffic Analysis; Transport Infrastructure Development Modeling (TIDM); Transportation Planning and Implementation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_47&r=all |
| By: | de Vos, Duco (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Meijers, Evert J. (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Teleworking may increase the willingness to accept a longer commute. This paper presents new evidence of the effect of teleworking on the length of commutes. We use novel panel data from the Netherlands, for the years 2008-2018, and find stronger effects compared to studies that use older data. Between 2008 and 2018 however, the effect was remarkably stable: workers that started teleworking increased their commutes by 12 percent on average. We analyse heterogeneity in the effect of teleworking on commuting across different levels of urbanization and across occupations. This study stresses the effects of teleworking on the geographical scale of labour markets, and provides important inputs for policymakers that aim to promote teleworking. |
| Keywords: | telecommuting, commuting time, information technology, fixed effects |
| JEL: | R11 R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12578&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Brunauer; Robert Wieser |
| Abstract: | Austrian house prices have risen rapidly in recent years and there has been considerable debate on the underlying factors. Much of the debate focuses on increasing trends in real house price indexes and the ratio of house prices to disposable income as a measure of affordability. While it is generally accepted that the low interest rate environment is a key driver of house prices, there is uncertainty as of the sustainability of the level of house prices in some European countries. The OeNB fundamental indicator for residential property prices, launched in January 2014, points to an overvaluation in property prices by 21.7% in Vienna in the first quarter of 2018. For Austria as a whole, the indicator reached 11.2%. Several international studies also point to overvaluation in Austrian housing markets.House prices can fluctuate more than fundamentally justified because agents overreact to current fundamentals as well as past returns and are influenced by their sentiment. Reliable valuation metrics are therefore very important for monitoring residential property markets. While different approaches to identify overvaluation have strengths and weaknesses, theoretical consistency should be a prerequisite of any model of house price behaviour. Furthermore, examining national price indices is an ineffective means of early detection of housing bubbles. Speculative overvaluations arise in individual local and regional markets before spreading to the national market.This paper analyses regional house price developments in Austria. We follow Bourassa et al. (2016) and use an asset pricing approach to compare actual price levels with implied fundamental or equilibrium levels. We model prices for existing condominiums as a function of the present value of expected market rents, allowing for a time-varying risk premium and state dependent rental growth expectations. Model results are then compared with results produced by alternative methods to assess house price developments. We also discuss the theoretical weaknesses of the OeNB fundamental indicator and the critical assumptions underlying our model. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing approach; Fundamental price indicator; Regional House Prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_20&r=all |
| By: | Dan Xiang; Jianping Gu |
| Abstract: | In the 19th National Congress of China, the central government proposed that instead of speculation houses are for living, and will construct long-term mechanism to stabilize housing prices. To achieve the national strategic target, the legislation of property tax in China has been speeding up. Shanghai and Chongqing, as two experimental cases, have implemented property tax system since Jan. 2011. From the literature review, the main research area is the effect of property tax on housing prices. On the one hand, the prices of houses fall by the present value because of the projected increase of holding costs, see e.g. Van den Noord(2005), Cebula(2009) and Kuang(2012). On the other hand, because of the improved local public services quality, the housing price will increase, see e.g. Oates(1969), Fischel(1992) and Lang and Jian(2004). However, housing prices do not fully represent the stability of housing market. price-to-rent ratios are commonly used by scholars to gauge the degree of speculation in the housing market. In the paper, we evaluate the effect of trial property taxes on housing price-to-rent ratio making use of a counterfactual analysis, exploiting the dependence of housing prices among different cities. We use the leave-nv-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities, where property tax has not been implemented, and construct the counterfactual price-to-rent ratios in Shanghai and Chongqing by comparing with the control cities. The empirical result shows that property taxes have different effects on different types of houses. The result suggests that in order to curb the soaring housing prices, property tax is a ‘future-oriented’ policy. But it should be different in different cities, and different house type should be corresponding to different policy. |
| Keywords: | control variate method; counterfactual analysis; leave-nv-out; price-to-rent ratio; property tax |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_172&r=all |
| By: | Felix Gauger; Jan-Oliver Strych; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | Flexible office space is a game-changer in the real estate industry, forecasting a rapid growth over the next years up to 30.000 flexible offices in 2020 (Gcuc, 2017). Specifically, emerging coworking spaces build a growing field for individuals, entrepreneurs, start-ups, and corporations. The agglomeration of coworking spaces resembles entrepreneurship in incubation centers, but the community aspect among involved firms is strong and invaluable (Bouncken et al. 2018). One of the main reasons to work in coworking spaces is the collaboration and sharing of knowledge, resources, and ideas (Spinuzzi, 2012). This can breed new venture concepts, support the growth in an early start-up stage, and accelerate successful business models. However, entrepreneurs require capital, which is a challenge to obtain. Venture Capital (VC) is considered as a fundamental source of finance for entrepreneurial firms (Colombo et al. 2018). So far, there has been no research on the relationship between venture capital investments in firms using coworking spaces. Previous literature lacks the understanding of how coworking spaces support entrepreneurial activities and how this affects the raise of external equity. Our study aims at understanding the connection between coworking spaces with venture capital investments and spatial founding activities.Our research focuses on addressing the question of whether there is a substitutional or complementary relation between firms’ funding by venture capitalists and their use of coworking spaces?We examine the relationship between the existence of coworking spaces with VC investments and founding activities in the European Union to illuminate the macroeconomic impact of this recently emerged form of business model, transforming the real estate office market. First, we employed a webcrawler identifying coworking spaces throughout the big cities in Europe to generate data for the study. We then determined the size and founding date of each space and aggregated the data per city in order to conduct a panel over 9 years. Furthermore, we compiled VC data via the platform crunchbase. Using the crunchbase API we were able to obtain and compile global investments and funding information. Applying econometric methods, we identified the relation of VC and coworking spaces at a global and country-specific level using a regression analysis and addressing the endogeneity problem. The novelty of our research provides a new spatial component to the venture capital and innovation literature by showing how the physical organization of work affects entrepreneurial activities.The results are threefold. First, VC investors get guidance on where to supply venture capital, as venture capitalists tend to invest within a spatial proximity to the venue. Second, coworking operators can benefit from this analysis in order to attract venture capital and provide an ideal entrepreneurial environment. Third, from an urban perspective, the results influence cities and policy-makers. We show the impact of flexible office space and accelerators for entrepreneurial activities and the determining factors for capital inflow into a city, which is an important variable for economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Coworking spaces; flexible office space; venture capital; wework; work environments |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_170&r=all |
| By: | Francesco Avvisati |
| Abstract: | Most adolescents desire strong social ties and value acceptance, care and support from others. Many adolescents find friends and caring adults among members of the school community. As students go through a decisive period of their lives, discovering and redefining their identity, a strong sense of belonging at school can help them feel secure, and can support their academic and social development. Adolescents who feel that they are part of a school community are also more motivated to learn and, as a result, more likely to perform well at school.But in recent years, many traditional communities formed around shared physical spaces – neighbourhoods, workplaces or schools – have been profoundly affected by advances in technology. How did students’ feelings of belonging at school change over a period in which online friendships and social networks were growing in importance? |
| Date: | 2019–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:100-en&r=all |
| By: | Bogdan Marola; Peter Parlasca |
| Abstract: | The presentation will deliver a European picture of developments in residential real estate after the financial crisis. The Eurostat database contains data on House price indices (HPI) at national level for all EU member states. The data starts in 2005 for some countries, and later for the others. From 2010 onwards, the available data allows a comparison encompassing all EU Member states plus Norway and Island.The advantage of the Eurostat data is that it is official data, compiled based on transaction prices and following a harmonised methodology across countries. The objective of this presentation is to show how this database can provide reliable answers to the following questions:How deep was the dip in the EU countries? When did the various countries pass with HPI pre-crisis levels? Who were the best performers in the last decade?The Eurostat database also contains data on the evolution of prices for new and existing dwellings. This presentation will reveal how the Eurostat database can be used to shed light on the analysis of the different patterns of the HPI for new and existing dwellings during the crisis and the following recovery. We show that by taking into account the dynamics of construction activity and sales of new dwellings during and after the crisis, the Eurostat data can be effectively used in the analysis of the evolution of housing markets in the EU in the last decade. A special focus will be on the countries having received a warning from the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) at end 2016 having identified these residential real estate markets as a risk for financial stability.Furthermore, we show how this data can be combined with data on rent prices evolution available also in the Eurostat database from the section dedicated to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. One relevant question is: did rent developments between 2008 and 2018 show similar patterns to house prices or were the rents developments much softer? Knowing what the data represents helps for a correct interpretation of the official figures.In summary, these datasets being official statistics published by Eurostat support to analyse both longer-term developments like recoveries after the crisis or latest developments indicating towards overheated residential real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | EU cross-country comparison; House Prices; Rents; Residential Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_276&r=all |
| By: | John Muellbauer |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence on what drives house prices, such as income changes, extrapolative expectations and differences in supply elasticities, is important. In many countries, house price movements in major cities such as the capital are more extreme and often seem to lead the rest of the country. This chapter therefore proposes a framework for analysing prices at a regional level, with an application to London illustrating its leading role and the ripple effect in other UK regions. As is also shown for Paris, capital cities are more sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions, and international investors can play an important role (perhaps leading to affordability problems for local residents). After the crisis, debt-to-income ratios have risen strongly which, together with the higher interest rate sensitivity of housing in cities, may impede the normalisation of interest rates. |
| Date: | 2019–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:872&r=all |
| By: | Anupam Nanda; Sarah Jewel; Olayiwola Oladiran |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom is one of the major destination of immigrants and approximately 50% of the UK immigrant population reside in London. This immigrant concentration has been linked to the city’s political, economic and administrative relevance globally and to the UK in particular. This paper presents empirical evidence that migration policy may also play a significant role in the locational choices and residential pattern of UK immigrants. A conceptual link is developed on the premise that migration policy plays a key role in creating and sustaining migration waves and by extension, the socio-economic, socio-cultural and demographic composition of immigrants which are also key factors in individuals’ locational choices and residential patterns. Using rigorous quasi-experimental techniques namely Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Difference-in-Difference (D-in-D) style approaches, this research examines the impact of the 2004 accession of 10 new countries to the EU (EU A10) and the Immigration Act of 1971 on the concentration of immigrants in London as well as the general residential pattern of UK immigrants. The results reveal that EU A10 immigrants that immigrated to the UK after the 2004 migration liberalisation (post-EU A10 immigrants) have a 20% lower likelihood of residing in London and are more spread out to other regions, compared to the pre-EU A10 immigrants who have a higher concentration in London. The results also reveal that Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated after the introduction of new immigration restrictions in 1972 have a 10% higher likelihood of residing in London compared to Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated before 1972. These results provide new insight on the potential link between migration policy, locational choices and residential patterns of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Demography; housing; Migration policy; Tenure; Windrush |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_257&r=all |
| By: | Olivier Mege; Fabrice Larceneux; Arnaud Simon; Paul Andriot |
| Abstract: | The indexes widely adopted by the real estate industry aims to evaluate the performance of a fund from its total return excluding the quality of the real estate property. There is a consensus around indexes based on a specific segmentation on the location (city, metropolis ...) of the property on the one hand and the typology of the asset (offices, warehouse ...) on the other hand. The construction of the index is based on a market average combining both location and typology. This indexes requiring to use many comparables. This perception of performance tends to exclude the « real » quality level of the asset in the investment decision making. Our work aims to assess the intrinsic quality of a property from its intrinsic and its financial characteristics. This methodology is based on a representative panel of the market who is in charge to evaluates the characteristics of a building. Our approach aims to add to the definition of Total Return (TR): the quality level of the building (QB), the quality of the geographical location (QL), the rental legal security (Ql) and the variation of these three levels of quality in time (bQB, bQL and bQl). Our approach aims to compare the level of management skills of an asset by an asset manager compared to the expected management of the market, on the building. That why characteriscts is no longer appreciate from a normative segmentation, but from assessments of the quality levels of the characteristics of the building. This the basis of our factor-based benchmarking approach. |
| Keywords: | asset valuation; Income quality; Investment; Performance; Property quality |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_231&r=all |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kumo, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the regional determinants of fertility rate in Russia using panel data for the period of 2005–2015. The estimation results of a system GMM dynamic model revealed that economic growth, employment opportunity, favorable local business conditions, educational opportunity, quality of social infrastructure, and housing supply serve to increase the fertility rate in Russian regions, while the presence of a Slavic population, migration inflow, poverty and ecological risks tend to suppress it. Furthermore, we found that combinations of factors that strongly affect the reproductive behavior of Russian women vary greatly among age groups and regions. To mitigate the declining trend of fertility in Russia, it is necessary to implement policies that take generational differences and regional heterogeneity into serious consideration. |
| Keywords: | total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rate, dynamic panel data analysis, Russian regions |
| JEL: | C23 J11 J13 P25 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2019-6&r=all |
| By: | Brenøe, Anne Ardila (University of Zurich); Zölitz, Ulf (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how high school gender composition affects students' participation in STEM at college. Using Danish administrative data, we exploit idiosyncratic within-school variation in gender composition. We find that having a larger proportion of female peers reduces women's probability of enrolling in and graduating from STEM programs. Men's STEM participation increases with more female peers present. In the long run, women exposed to more female peers are less likely to work in STEM occupations, earn less, and have more children. Our findings show that the school peer environment has lasting effects on occupational sorting, the gender wage gap, and fertility. |
| Keywords: | gender, peer effects, STEM studies |
| JEL: | I21 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12582&r=all |
| By: | Stokes, Lucy (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Wilkinson, David (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in England for the period 2010/11-2015/16 we find academy schools typically employ more staff in leadership roles than community schools. Increases in the number of staff in leadership roles below headship level are associated, at least to some extent, with improved school performance in Single Academy Trusts, but this is not the case for schools that are part of Multi Academy Trusts. Our findings suggest that the potential benefits of distributing leadership within schools may only be realised when leaders have sufficient autonomy. |
| Keywords: | school performance, distributed leadership, leadership, school autonomy |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12580&r=all |
| By: | Chien-Ling Lo |
| Abstract: | The market impact of planning policy became the focus of the debate on state-market relations (Heurkens et al., 2015). This research aims to expand this debate by employing a conceptual framework of market sustainability to ask whether regeneration policies have assisted Manchester office market evolving sustainably in the notion of market maturity, investment competitiveness and economic resilience. Since the late 1970s, property-led regeneration has been one of prevailing planning instruments expected to deliver economic growth through real estate development. Despite receiving criticism on lacking the social focus, the main purpose of property-led regeneration is to foster economic development of cities; however, little attention is drawn to test the policy outcomes in the context of economic sustainability. The investigation upon the historical evolution of policy impact on property market explains the long-term effect of economic sustainability reflecting the extent of market maturity, competitiveness and resilience since the behaviour of real estate market is highly sensitive to cyclical movements in economy indicating the various concerns over investment risk. A hybrid method is employed by firstly constructing the regeneration office index as well as conducting 22 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Office market in Manchester is an interesting case since it expanded substantially from the 1980s and arguably claimed to be the second largest market outside London by the late 1990s as a popular real estate investment hub for institutional investors. The research suggests that this market transformation is likely attributed to the city’s regeneration strategies, which intentionally enlarged the scale of office market particularly since the 1980s. Empirical evidence from this study suggests that the dominant entrepreneurism of urban regeneration led by the City Council over time could inadvertently contribute to the increase of systemic risk through the financialization of property market. |
| Keywords: | Economic Sustainability; Investor behaviour; Municipal governance; Office Market; Urban Regeneration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_195&r=all |
| By: | Graham, Daniel J.; Gibbons, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomeration, explains the link between transport and agglomeration, and describes a three step procedure to appraise agglomeration impacts in a number of different settings. It includes new analytical work on measures of agglomeration and reports agglomeration-productivity elasticity estimates for the UK not previously published in the academic literature. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future empirical work on agglomeration and transport appraisal. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Cost benefit analysis; Transport |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2019–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101610&r=all |
| By: | Nikolai Siniak; Dmytro Zubov |
| Abstract: | Smart sustainable development and inclusive growth policy in Europe have a significant social impact on the cities and regions. The investigation of the regions’ potential is a starting point for the social and economic development that leads to a higher quality of life. Together with developed smart infrastructures such as Industry 4.0, smart transport and cities have to be hospitable for people with disabilities. This concept is based on the combination of digital, economic, social, environmental, and other structures. Nowadays, digital technologies simplify the everyday activities of the blind and visually impaired (B&VI) people, their employment, and make the work conditions more B&VI friendly. The real estate facilities were drastically changed for the B&VI last decade. Internet of Things helps the B&VI to increase control over their lives and live independently. Examples of today available assistive devices are as follows: related to low vision (magnifiers; near/distance vision telescopes), for daily living (thermometers, barometers, and other meteorological sensors; lighting; color sensors; liquid level indicators; money handling devices), for information and communication (mobile communications; screen magnification software; Braille editing and translation software; web-browsers for non-visual output; computer vision), automatic doors and windows (smart locks; smart doorbells; smart curtains and shades), voice assistants (music and audiobooks; heating control; voice-activated phone calls; news and weather updates; calendars and reminders), home help (garden robots; robot hoovers). However, the standard smart assistive infrastructures have not been developed yet. The most prospect approach is the combination of the real estate facilities/services with the B&VI assistive soft-/hardware at the construction and facility management stage including related laws and standards.This paper discusses how the ICT technologies simplify the B&VI everyday activities and employment and make their work and living conditions in buildings more B&VI friendly and how it can influence on a real estate market and regional development. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic territorial benefit. |
| Keywords: | Digital Transformation; employment blind and visually impaired; Smart sustainable development; Social Innovation; wearable assistive device |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_83&r=all |
| By: | Minsu Chang (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the evolving likelihood of marriage and divorce is an essential factor in accounting for the changes in housing decisions over time in the United States. To quantify the importance of this channel, I build a life-cycle model of single and married households who face exogenous age-dependent marital transition shocks. I then estimate the parameters of the model by a limited information Bayesian method to match the moments from 1995's cross-section data. I conduct a decomposition analysis between 1970 and 1995, two years with similar real house prices but substantially different probabilities of marital transitions. I find that the change in the likelihood of marital transitions accounts for 29% of the observed increase in the homeownership rate of singles. This portion is substantial given that the changes in downpayment requirements, earnings risk, and spousal labor productivity jointly replicate 45% of the change. When the change in marital transitions is shut down, the marrieds' housing asset share increases, which is opposite to the data's pattern. Then I extend my analysis to study whether the ongoing change in marital transitions still plays a role in explaining housing decisions in recent years, which have seen dramatically changing house prices. In addition to other factors such as credit constraints, wages, and beliefs on price appreciation that are often suggested as drivers for homeownership increase during the housing boom in the mid-2000s, I show that the continuing decrease in marriage contributes to an approximately 7% increase in the homeownership rate for young singles. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:514&r=all |
| By: | Sotiris Tsolacos; Nicole Lux; |
| Abstract: | The focus of the paper is to offer empirical evidence on the factors that influence the credit spread on commercial mortgage loans. We extend existing work on the pricing of commercial mortgage loans and examine the relative significance of a range of factors that are lender, asset and loan specific. Theory suggests that mortgages secured on property types that are perceived to be riskier should be priced higher. Empirically our model examines the impact of mortgage endogenous factors such as loan-to-value ratios, property types, loan size together with exogenous factors including lender and origination date on the commercial mortgage credit spreads. Furthermore, using an event study framework, we exploit the credit premium changes after global incidents including the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit vote.The paper makes use of a unique database in the UK. The dataset contains UK loan pricing data on a semi-annual basis from 2002 – 2018. Following the practice in existing work, the paper attempts to identify both cross-sectional and intertemporal influences on credit spreads.Given the dearth of studies in this field in Europe this paper provides the basis for useful comparisons with the US literature. More importantly, it represents a valuable investigation for institutions engaging in commercial real estate lending in the search for yield. With regard to the latter, we take the analysis a step further. A comparison is made between observed mortgage credit spreads with corporate credit spreads of fixed income bonds with the same maturity and credit quality over the same time period. In this way, the paper defines a new industry-wide framework for setting underwriting and mortgage pricing terms. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Mortgages; Credit Spreads; Determinants; Term Structures |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_123&r=all |
| By: | Anna Baranowska-Rataj; Kieron J. Barclay (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joan Costa-Font; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Berkay Özcan |
| Abstract: | Although preterm births are the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in advanced economies, evidence about the consequences of such births later in life is limited. Using Swedish population register data on cohorts born 1982-1994 (N=1,087,750), we examine the effects of preterm births on school grades using sibling fixed effect models which compare individuals with their non-preterm siblings. We test for heterogeneous effects by degree of prematurity, as well as whether family socioeconomic resources and school characteristics can compensate for any negative effects of premature births. Our results show that preterm births can have negative effects on school grades, but these negative effects are largely confined to children born extremely preterm (<28 weeks of gestation, i.e. born at least 10 weeks earlier). Children born moderately preterm (i.e. born up to 5 weeks early) suffer no ill effects. We do not find any evidence for the moderating effect of parental socioeconomic resources. Our results indicate that school environment is very important for the outcomes of preterm born children, such that those born extremely preterm that are in the top decile of schools have as good grades as those born full-term that are in an average school. However, good schools appear to lift scores for all groups, and as a result that gap between extremely preterm and full-term children remains also in the best schools. This highlights the role of schools as institutions that may either reduce or reinforce the early life course disadvantage. |
| Keywords: | Sweden, education, premature birth, school success |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-016&r=all |
| By: | Radoslaw Wisniewski; Justyna Brzezicka |
| Abstract: | Translocality is a multidimensional concept that accounts for the increasing complexity of globalization and glocalization processes that can be integrated as part of translocal processes. The real estate market is a well-defined area of translocality because its characteristics well fit the definition of locality. The real estate market is regarded as a local market because it is based on property that is immobile in geographic space as well as the inherent components of property. The real estate market has obvious connections with a specific locality (point in space), but it also plays a role outside local space. Globalization and glocalization processes come into contact on the real estate market, and they become suffused, strengthened or weakened in translocal processes. A unique interplay of local (often hyperlocal) and global elements can be observed on the real estate market. These attributes make the real estate market an excellent vantage point for studying the factors and variables that characterize the translocal market.The main aim of this study is to identify the factors that determine translocal processes on the real estate market. These factors and variables will be analyzed from the point of view of market participants. Clusters of economic, demographic, political, cybernetic and environmental factors will be defined in analyses of translocal processes in local market space. These clusters group factors and variables that define and participate in translocal processes on the real estate market. A systemic analysis of correlations with other areas that condition translocal processes will also be carried out.This research and conference expenses are funded by a grant from the Polish National Science Center, Miniatura 2 COMPETITION, No. DEC-2018/02/X/HS4/02241. |
| Keywords: | Factors of translocal processes; Globalization processes; Glocalization processes; translocality |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_55&r=all |
| By: | Marcel Erlinghagen; Christoph Kern; Petra Stein |
| Abstract: | Using German panel data and relying on internal relocation, this paper investigates the anticipation and adaptation of subjective well-being (SWB) in the course of migration. We hypothesize that SWB correlates with the process of migration, and that such correlations are at least partly socially stratified. Our fixed-effects regressions show no evidence of any anticipation of SWB before the event of migration, but a highly significant and sustained positive adaptation effect. In general, internal migration seems to lead to a long-lasting increase in SWB. This is found to be the case for almost all analyzed socioeconomic and socio-demographic subgroups. The migration distance, the reasons for migration, and the individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics do not appear to have any important effects on the overall observed pattern. Our results suggest that regional mobility is less a response to certain stressors, but is, rather, a response to an opportunity to improve job- or housing-related living conditions, and that these improved conditions are reflected in individuals’ SWB. Thus, migration under these circumstances is triggered by opportunities rather than by constraints. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, migration, relocation, life course, adaptation, anticipation |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1046&r=all |
| By: | Giesecke, Matthias; Schuss, Eric |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of language training on subsequent employment and wages of immigrants under essential heterogeneity. The identifying variation is based on regional differences in language training availability that we use to instrument endogenous participation. Estimating marginal treatment effects along the distribution of observables and unobservables that drive individual participation decisions, we find that immigrants with higher gains are more likely to select into language training than immigrants with lower gains. We document up to 15% higher employment rates and 13% wage gains for immigrants with a high desire to participate but the positive returns vanish with increasing resistance to treatment. This pattern of selection on gains correlates with unobserved ability and motivation, promoting investments in education and job-specific skills that yield higher returns when complemented by language capital in the host country. |
| Keywords: | language training,heterogeneous returns,marginal treatment effects,continuous instrument |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 J68 O15 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:812&r=all |
| By: | Bruno de Borger (University of Antwerp); Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark); Jan Rouwendal (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Most studies of the effects of transport infrastructure on the performance of individual firms have focused on marginal expansions of the rail or highway network over time. In this paper, we study the short-run effects of a large discrete shock in the quality of transport infrastructure, viz. the opening of the Great Belt bridge connecting the Copenhagen area with a neighboring island and the mainland of Denmark. We analyse the effect of the opening of the bridge on the productivity of firms throughout the country using a two-step approach: we estimate firm- and year-specific productivity for a large panel of individual firms, using the approaches developed by Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) and De Loecker (2011). Then, controlling for firm-fixed effects, we relate productivity to a calculated measure of accessibility that captures the effect of the opening of the bridge. We find large productivity effects for firms located in the regions near the bridge, especially for relatively small firms in the construction and retail industry. Estimation results further suggest statistically significant but small positive wage effects throughout the country, even in regions far from the bridge. Finally, there is some evidence that the bridge has stimulated new activities in the Copenhagen region at the expense of firms disappearing on the neighboring island Funen. |
| Keywords: | production functions, productivity, accessibility, agglomeration, transport infrastructure |
| JEL: | R12 H54 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:201900065&r=all |
| By: | Victor Medeiros (UFMG); Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro (UFMG); Pedro Vasconcelos Maia do Amaral (UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Many scholars have highlighted the role of infrastructure in reducing income inequality. Developing economies present immense regional and income discrepancies, which are correlated with unequally distributed infrastructure in territorial and population terms. In this paper, we assess the effects of infrastructure supply on income inequality and verify whether these effects vary according to the infrastructure sector and its degree of quality and access in Brazil. The analysis is based on spatial hierarchical models. Results allow us to say that infrastructure correlates negatively with income inequality. Hence, policies aimed at improving infrastructure quality and expanding access are crucial for reducing income concentration. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure; income inequality; Brazil; spatial econometrics; multilevel approach. |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td608&r=all |
| By: | Jessica Nisén (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Johan Dahlberg; Lars Dommermuth; Aiva Jasilioniene (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Michaela Kreyenfeld (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Trude Lappegård; Peng Li (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Karel Neels; Bernhard Riederer; Saskia te Riele; Laura Szabó; Alessandra Trimarchi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Francicso Viciana; Ben Wilson; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Educational differences in female cohort fertility have been shown to vary across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries in order to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional estimates of GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. Our results document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable variation in the gradient across regions. The gradient varies systematically by the level of economic development: moving from less to more developed regions, we observe smallergradients both across countries and within countries. However, the within-country patterns of countries differ. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth fertility analyses by education at the sub-national level. |
| Keywords: | Europe, cohort fertility, economic development, education, population registers, regions |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-018&r=all |
| By: | Sara Bindo; Gianluca Mattarocci; Simone Roberti |
| Abstract: | Real estate industry is looking for new asset classes characterized by a different risk-return profile with respect to standard classes (offices, retail, residential, etc…) and the hotel industry represents a new asset class where the real estate funds are looking for new investment opportunities. The performance analysis of the hotel industry shows that the hospitality industry performs differently with respect to other real estate asset classes and there are significant differences on the basis of the location and the quality standard of the hotel structure.The performance in the hotel industry is significantly affected by the reputation of the hotel and its capability to maximize the RevPAR (through the optimization of the ADR and Occupancy rate) of the hospitality infrastructure. The performance drivers of this asset class are not comparable to other real estate types and skills and information necessary for evaluating investment opportunities in the hospitality industry are unique and not frequently available for fund managers operating in the other real ester sector.Literature on diversification strategy in the hotel industry is still limited and there are only few evidences outside US about the performance of hotel specialized real estate portfolios. The paper analyses the Italian industry and provide evidence on the performance achieved by the opportunities related to the hotel industry by considering the case study methodology. Results highlight that the performance of the hotel industry is different with respect to other real estate asset classes and the portfolio composition criteria normally adopted for specialized real estate funds are unique and focused prevalently on the revenues forecast and the rent sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Hotel investment; Performance Analysis; Real Estate Funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_210&r=all |
| By: | Figari, Francesco; Verbist, Gerlinde; Zantomio, Francesca |
| Abstract: | Western countries’ income tax systems exempt the return from investing in owner-occupied housing. Returns from other investments are instead taxed, thus distorting households’ portfolio choices, although it is argued that housing property taxation might act as a counterbalance. Based on data drawn from the Statistics of Income and Living Conditions and the UK Family Resources Survey, and building on tax-benefit model EUROMOD, we provide novel evidence on the interplay of income and property taxation in budgetary, efficiency and equity terms in eight European countries. Results reveal that, even accounting for recurrent housing property taxation, a sizeable ‘homeownership bias’ i.e. a lighter average and marginal taxation for homeownership investment, is embedded in current tax systems, and displays heterogeneous distributional profiles across different countries. Housing property taxation represents only a partial correction towards neutrality. |
| Date: | 2019–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em17-19&r=all |
| By: | Leo de Haan; Mauro Mastrogiacomo |
| Abstract: | Using loan level data on mortgage loans originated by Dutch banks during 1996 to 2015, we analyse the determinants of the incidence of non-performance. We find that both the originating loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) and the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI) are significantly positively associated with the probability of non-performance. The results suggest that mortgages with government-loan-guarantees perform better. Moreover, several mortgage loan and borrower characteristics, such as the (interest-only) loan type and the underwater status of the borrower, increase credit risk. Our model predictions suggest a novel policy implication: in order to avoid acceleration of non-performance probabilities, the OLTV-limit should be set to about 70%-80% for uninsured mortgages, and to about 90% for those with mortgage insurance. |
| Keywords: | Credit risk; Mortgage loans; Loan to Value; Loan guarantees |
| JEL: | G20 G21 H81 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:655&r=all |
| By: | Stephan Kippes |
| Abstract: | Retail trade is always subject to a high degree of change. The dynamics of change in the retail sector is intensified by the massive growth of the online trade.Changes in the classic retail trade are followed by changes that are of highest importance for the real estate industry with a more or less pronounced time lag. That is changes of the tenant-mix, stores, or even vacancies of outlets in the retail real estate market. This paper analyses the changes and turnover of retail outlets in the retail real estate markets of the 'Big 7', i.e. Germany's most important real estate markets, for the time period 2008 to 2018. An important indicator of change in the retail sector is the level of change of retail-tenants, that is the retail fluctuation.The paper focuses on retail outlets in high streets, as these prime retail locations are of the utmost importance for retail markets. In high streets, the majority of retail sales are generated and the highest rents are achieved. Furthermore, this real estate type is the flagship of the retail, or even the commercial real estate markets. In this respect, as described above, the paper compares the retail fluctuation in the “Big 7”, and it examines the extent of these changes.Basically, a distinction can be made, whether a change was initiated by a tenant, or several tenants, the landlord, or real estate development. At the same time the reasons for undertaking real estate developments can also be complex and can be caused by a tenant or several tenants who terminate their leases, or construction activities which are triggered by the landlord.At the same time a very low fluctuation rate is also not desirable, as trade also needs a certain level of change. A very low fluctuation can indicate that necessary adaptation processes do not take place, are pent up, or - even more unfavorably - no new operators or concepts are willing to spearhead this drive to change. Such a situation can at a later point in time initiate the downturn of a retail location, and an increased vacancy rate. |
| Keywords: | empirical survey; Germanyâs; Retail; retail fluctuation; retail outlets in high streets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_228&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Ludwig (Research Center SAFE, Goethe University); Jochen Mankart (Deutsche Bundesbank); Jorge Quintana (SAFE and Goethe University); Mirko Wiederholt (Sciences Po); Nathanael Vellekoop (Goethe University Frankfurt) |
| Abstract: | What is the role of heterogenous house-price expectations for boom-bust cycles in the housing market? We exploit a unique Dutch panel data set on households' house price expectations and their consumption, savings and housing choices for the period 2003-2016. This period was characterized by a pronounced boom-bust cycle in the housing market. Conditioning the sample on household heads who report non-zero house price expectations, we find that expectations closely track realized house prices. We next develop a structural life-cycle model of the Dutch housing market where we distinguish household types according to their house price expectations. We employ a calibrated model variant to test if observed variations in expectations can account for the housing boom-bust cycle. First results show that our model closely matches the observed fluctuations of the rent-to-price ratio in the data but overshoots the size of the housing boom. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:848&r=all |
| By: | Egino Millanzi |
| Abstract: | Purpose-. Essentially, there are different housing finance methods applicable in mobilizing financial resources for housing development in developed and developing countries. The type and usefulness of these methods differ among countries, as well as within countries geographical area. Long term mortgage finance methods which perform better in developed countries, invariably underperform in developing countries. Large number of urban households are excluded in mortgage finance system. This paper seeks to determine the sources and methods of housing finance among households as well as their applicability in urban Tanzania.Methodology- The paper starts with a presentation of the sources and methods of housing finance and discusses housing finance system from the perspective of system theory which encompass demand and supply subsystems. Several hypotheses based on questionnaires are tested through a questionnaire survey sent to 370 homeowners in surveyed and surveyed areas of Kinondoni Municipality, Dar es salaam city.Findings-The study revealed that mortgage finance method is irrelevant in Tanzania. There is dominance of informal equity based methods such as personal income and profits from petty business, sweat equity, small loans from friends and relatives, pensions and gratuity, and remittances from family living abroad and within the country. Use of microfinances such as Saccos, Vicoba as well as microcredits from banks and other microfinance institutions also increases. The study further revealed that it takes 3 to 20 years to complete housing development with an average period of 8 years. These findings imply that incremental finance methods dominate housing market in urban Tanzania. Majority use multiple methods through progressive phases to finance housing development. Originality/value- Despite the constraints of mortgage finance and other long-term housing finance methods in developing countries. Microfinances which are compatible with incremental housing finance methods if improved can be useful to urban Tanzania housing market. Incremental housing strategy fits the requirements of urban poor which calls for fundamental policy innovations of this strategy and microfinance institutions. |
| Keywords: | housing finance methods; Housing finance system; incremental finance strategy; sources of finances; Urban Area |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_45&r=all |
| By: | Molina Millán, Teresa (Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Macours, Karen (Paris School of Economics); Maluccio, John (Middlebury College); Tejerina, Luis (IDB Invest) |
| Abstract: | Numerous evaluations of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs show positive short-term impacts, but there is only limited evidence on whether these benefits translate into sustained longer-term gains. This paper uses the municipal-level randomized assignment of a CCT program implemented for five years in Honduras to estimate long-term effects 13 years after the program began. We estimate intent-to-treat effects using individual-level data from the population census, which allows assignment of individuals to their municipality of birth, thereby circumventing migration selection concerns. For the non-indigenous, we find positive and robust impacts on educational outcomes for cohorts of a very wide age range. These include increases of more than 50 percent for secondary school completion rates and the probability of reaching university studies for those exposed at school-going ages. They also include substantive gains for grades attained and current enrollment for others exposed during early childhood, raising the possibility of further gains going forward. Educational gains are, however, more limited for the indigenous. Finally, exposure to the CCT increased the probability of international migration for young men, from 3 to 7 percentage points, also stronger for the non-indigenous. Both early childhood exposure to the nutrition and health components of the CCT as well as exposure during school-going ages to the educational components led to sustained increases in human capital. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers (CCTs), early childhood, education, migration |
| JEL: | I25 I28 I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12590&r=all |
| By: | Mendez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper studies efficiency convergence across provinces in Indonesia over the 1990-2010 period. Through the lens of both classical and distributional convergence frameworks, the dispersion dynamics of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are contrasted. The results suggest that—on average—there is regional convergence in both measures of efficiency. However, results from the distributional framework indicate the existence of two separate convergence clusters within the pure technical efficiency distribution. Moreover, since scale efficiency is characterized by only one convergence cluster, the two clusters of pure technical efficiency appear to be driving the overall efficiency dynamics of Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, Convergence, Distribution-based clustering, Nonparametric distribution, Indonesia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95972&r=all |
| By: | Ferdinand Rauch; Kristiina Tuomikoski |
| Abstract: | Ferdinand Rauch, Kristiina Tuomikoski This paper presents a number of facts on the use of the Bodleian libraries by Oxford students. We pay particular attention to the importance of the distance between a student’s home and a library on the choice of which library to use. This small scale distance elasticity is an important parameter for urban economics. We find a distance elasticity of around -0.3, closer to zero than observed in related studies. |
| Keywords: | Library usage, Distance elasticity, Gravity model |
| JEL: | F14 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:865&r=all |
| By: | Giovanna Iannantuoni (University of Milano-Bicocca); Elena Manzoni (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Francesca Rossi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | The European political spectrum can be modelled as a two-dimensional space, whose interpretation has been investigated in the spatial voting literature by regression analysis. However, data on legislators' positions display spatial clustering that is not explained by the standard models. We account for correlation among legislators by modelling spatial dependence across countries, using a new sets of geopolitical and cultural metrics. We confirm the well known result that the first dimension of the European political space is mainly explained by the Members of European Parliament's ideological position on a left-right scale, although correlation across legislators cannot be neglected. We show that spatial correlation plays instead a central role when interpreting the more controversial second dimension of the political spectrum. The most relevant proximity measures are based on geographical proximity, institutional similarities and on three cultural metrics related to which issues play a central role in the political debate. |
| Keywords: | European political space, spatial autoregressions, NOMINATE, proximity matrices, economic distances. |
| JEL: | D72 C21 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:14/2019&r=all |
| By: | Yesim Aliefendioglu; Rodrigue Bazame; Harun Tanrivermis |
| Abstract: | In the analysis of real estate markets, criteria such as sales volume, transaction frequency and vacancy rate in a certain period of time are frequently used, and mobility analysis and development trends are used. In other saying, to analyse real estate market dynamism concept like as the real estate stock, sales amount, vacancy rate or whether the same property has been handed over more than once within a certain time period are used. Although the levels and movements of real estate market prices have been subject to many researches, there are few studies on the propensity of real estate turnover (Fisher et al., 2004). Real estate sales or turnover frequency provide important information about the condition of local, regional or national markets. In researches on the real estate turnover frequency, the current housing sales and the demand for new housing are considered in the first lace (Jaffee and Rosen 1979, Thom 1985, Stein 1995, Dieleman 2001, Rady and Ortalo-Magne 2001). According to Fisher et al. (2004), frequency of real estate turnover depends on market conditions (such as economic, demographic, financial, taxation instruments and legal regulations), characteristics of properties and the socio-economic status of the occupant. In order to understand the frequency and causes of housing turnover, the expectations of households and firms and their development strategies should be understood in advance. While the change of residence for household expectations is generally perceived as a response to the change in household demand, housing turnover is considered to be associated with the choice of residence to adapt to the change in household size, household income or living standards (Turner 1968). Along with this, Rietveld (1984) emphasised that there is a mutual relationship between housing vacancy and housing turnover frequency in the housing market. Therefore, the vacancy rate in housing stock affects the propensity household to move and at the same time the propensity of changing housing is affected by the vacancy rate. In this study, the macroeconomic variables and the development of housing sales in Turkey were evaluated in general and a macro-analysis of housing sales frequency was conducted. In the second stage, housing turnover frequency and the factors affecting it have been analysed in a selected district in the light of official data and survey results. The housing purchase and sales data of the last 20 years in the Çankaya district, where the number of dwellings and households is highest in Ankara and where households from all socioeconomic groups live, and the period of possession of the dwelling have been examined. The high frequency of housing turnover and the short period of possession within the district boundaries and the development trends in the neighbourhood scale were examined according to the results of the field observations. A survey was conducted on people who bought and sold houses in the district in the last year to collect micro data that could have influenced the reasons for housing sales and purchases and handover frequency and these were analysed. According to the results of the micro-analysis, it was determined that the factors affecting the housing turnover frequency were urban development trends, comfort perception, proximity to school or workplace, household requirements and other factors. The research results provide important clues to the decision-making bodies in terms of perceiving the dynamics of the housing market. |
| Keywords: | Ankara; housing; housing market; residential mobility; turnover and sales frequency |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_261&r=all |
| By: | Linda Julies; Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek; Astrid Kemperman; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) has evolved since Joroff developed his seminal framework of CREM evolution in the 1990s. According to this evolution, each stage forward adds additional activities to the job of a CREM department in their search for added strategic value and alignment. Along the five stages CREM departments move from a more operational towards a more strategic role. More recent research has shown that not all CRE departments have reached the highest step on the evolutionary ladder (the Business strategist stage). It remains unclear whether they might not want to do so or just lack the skills to perform the necessary activities.The aim of this study was therefore to identify the necessary skills for important CREM activities for each evolutionary stage. Data was collected through a survey among 53 members of the Dutch network of CRE executives (CREME). Findings show that strategic CREM departments are more inclined to pursue employee satisfaction and –productivity, increasing innovation and promoting marketing & sales, while their operational counterpart aim more often at cost reduction, asset value, increasing flexibility and sustainability. Regarding important CREM activities, strategic CREM executives state portfolio management, strategic planning, contract and property management as most important, while their operational counterparts are focused more on administrative/financial management, acquisition & disposition and performance measurement. When identifying specific skills for their activities, again strategic CREM executives choose different skills than their operational counterparts for each activity.The results of this research are useful for CREM in practice, but also for improving the content of real estate courses at universities and in practice. Future studies could identify time spend on activities and how skills improve actual performance of CREM departments. |
| Keywords: | Activities; Corporate real estate management; skills; Strategy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_93&r=all |
| By: | A. Kerem Cosar (University of Virginia); Latchezar Popov (Texas Tech University); Sophie Osotimehin (UQAM) |
| Abstract: | What are the aggregate, sectoral, and regional effects of major technological advances and productivity improvements in shipping goods and transmitting data? This paper aims to provide theoretical and quantitative answers to this question. The theory features a realistic and novel treatment of freight and tradability of services in a multi-sector, multi-region model: each intermediate input, be it a good or a tradable service, requires the complementary supply of hauling and communication, respectively. Their low substitutability bestows transport and communication a critical role in establishing the spatial links between other sectors in the input-output structure. Existing work on modeling and quantifying trade costs, and the input-output structure of the economy typically follow separate tracks, without a unifying framework that treats freight and communication costs as determined by productivities of the sectors supplying these services. Workhorse models of economic geography investigating the effect of transportation technology and infrastructure feature a single-sector model of trade with iceberg trade costs but abstract from realistic input-output linkages in a multi-sector setting. General equilibrium models of the macroeconomy, on the other hand, typically feature a single region and thus abstract from spatial interactions across regions. None of these models distinguish transportation and communication in terms of their substitutability. We bring these two separate approaches together in order to analyze the aggregate, sectoral and regional effects of reductions in the cost of overcoming distance. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:237&r=all |
| By: | Francesco Drago (Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II); Roberto Galbiati (Département d'économie); Francesco Sobbrio |
| Abstract: | This study analyses voters' response to criminal justice policies by exploiting a natural experiment. The 2006 Italian Collective Pardon Bill, designed and promoted by the incumbent center-left (CL) coalition, unexpectedly released about one-third of the prison population, creating idiosyncratic incentives to recidivate across pardoned individuals. Municipalities where resident pardoned individuals had a higher incentive to recidivate experienced a higher recidivism rate. We show that in those municipalities voters "punished'' the CL coalition in the 2008 parliamentary elections. A one standard deviation increase in the incentive to recidivate-corresponding to an increase of recidivism of 15.9 percent-led to a 3.06 percent increase in the margin of victory of the center-right (CR) coalition in the post-pardon national elections (2008) relative to the last election before the pardon (2006). We also provide evidence of newspapers being more likely to report crime news involving pardoned individuals and of voters hardening their views on the incumbent national government's ability to control crime. Our findings indicate that voters keep politicians accountable by conditioning their vote on the observed effects of public policies. |
| Keywords: | Accountability; Retrospective Voting; Natural Experiment; Crime; Recidivism; Media |
| JEL: | D72 K42 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p&r=all |
| By: | Claudia Macaluso (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Brad Hershbein (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Res); Chen Yeh (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the cross-sectional and time-series properties of concentration in employment, job creation, and vacancy flows across U.S. local labor markets. We proceed in three steps: first, we derive conditions for indices of labor market concentration to be appropriate proxies for monopsony power. Then, we compute Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices at the local labor market level using data on the universe of online vacancies (BGT) and the universe of employers (LBD). Finally, we document that labor market monopsony does not manifest itself only through a negative effect on the level of wages, but also through a positive effect on the demand for skills. We find that (i) in the last decade, at most 5% of new U.S. jobs are in moderately concentrated local markets; (ii) local labor market concentration decreased over time, dropping by at least 25% since 1976. We reconcile our findings to previous studies on increasing national concentration through a statistical decomposition which implies that the covariance between a local labor market's size and its concentration level decreased over time. When it comes to the effects of monopsony, we find that a 1% increase in local labor market concentration is associated with a 0.14% decrease in average hourly wages, and an increase in the number of jobs requiring cognitive and social skills equal to 10-13% of the mean (``upskilling''). We conclude that our evidence is consistent with the presence of employers' market power and discuss how upskilling constitutes a policy challenge not readily addressed by increases in the minimum wage. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1336&r=all |
| By: | Gheorghe Multescu; Kama Koska |
| Abstract: | Social and economic changes to the workstyles and workplaces in Central London have had a strong impact on the commercial property market during the last decade. The emergence of a strong sector of Tech occupiers offer more stability to the market’s ups and downs. The research aims to investigate how office building design in Central London is adapting to the market changes and if developers and landlords have the ability to respond to tenants’ requirements for better flexibility.What is the impact of workstyle changes on workspace requirements and utilisation in the Central London office markets? The research adopts a two-fold approach. An initial literature review is followed by a survey that takes and in-depth analysis of professional experience criteria and requirements in designing and utilising commercial office buildings in Central London. Data analysis focused on a set of questionnaires sent to three professional groups including developers, designers and consultants and occupiers of Central London office space.The main findings reflect some clear changes in the type of space on demand as well as a more conscious use of space by the tenants. There are also practical suggestions given of how to improve the workplace quality and attractiveness to increase the competitiveness and appeal to broader groups of occupiers. The improvements include solutions for base build and fit-out that would enable developers and landlord to target a changing mix of more innovative and Tech companies. The adoption of flexible workspace design will allow landlords and tenants alike to align their Corporate Real Estate and Business strategies to enhance the quality of workplace and secure a solid place for Central London in the global development and investment office markets. |
| Keywords: | Central London; Commercial Office Property; Corporate Real Estate Management and Strategies; Future Workstyles; Workspace Utilisation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_225&r=all |
| By: | Anastasopoulos, Jason (University of Georgia); Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Cook, Gavin G. (Princeton University); Lachanski, Michael (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Beginning in 1951, the Conference Board constructed a monthly job vacancy index by counting the number of help-wanted ads published in local newspapers in 51 metropolitan areas. We use the Help-Wanted Index (HWI) to document how immigration changes the number of job vacancies in the affected labor markets. Our analysis revisits the Mariel episode. The data reveal a marked drop in Miami's HWI relative to many alternative control groups in the first 4 or 5 years after Mariel, followed by recovery afterwards. The Miami evidence is consistent with the observed relation between immigration and the HWI across all metropolitan areas in the 1970- 2000 period: these spatial correlations suggest that more immigration reduces the number of job vacancies. We also explore some of the macro implications of the Mariel supply shock and show that Miami's Beveridge curve shifted inwards by the mid-1980s, suggesting a more efficient labor market, in contrast to the outward nationwide shift coincident with the onset of the 1980- 1982 recession. Finally, we examine the text of the help-wanted ads published in a number of newspapers and document a statistically and economically significant post-Mariel decline in the relative number of low-skill vacancies advertised in the Miami Herald. |
| Keywords: | job vacancies, immigration, Beveridge Curve |
| JEL: | J23 J6 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12581&r=all |
| By: | Özge Bilgili (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This research paper has the objective of providing a comprehensive overview of Dutch education policy approaches to the integration of children with a migration background, with a particular focus on those who have recently arrived in the country. After mapping the current population characteristics of children with a migration background and their educational performance and socio-emotional well-being, the research paper summarises the Dutch education system and the opportunities it provides for newcomer children. The remainder of the paper focuses on three key policy issues that are crucial for promoting the academic and social resilience of children with a migration background: promoting social cohesion and multiculturalism in schools, capacity building in the education system and language acquisition for newcomers. The paper concludes with pointers for the short and long-term policy debates to enhance the successful integration of students with a migration background in the education system as well as the wider society. |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:206-en&r=all |
| By: | Nadine Wills; Daniel Piazolo |
| Abstract: | A wide range of partition forms the real estate sector, such as asset management, investment management, property management, or facility management. A main objective in real estate sector is the allocation of housing and gaining benefits in dealing with properties. The real estate industry is comparable to automotive industry, architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, or logistic industry. In all of these types of industries, digitalization gains high importance. Comparing digitalization technologies from various industries it can be shown that these technologies are used heterogeneously. A widely used digital technology in AEC industry is the method of building information modeling (BIM). A building information model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a facility, serving as a shared knowledge resource for decision making during the life cycle of a building. A reason for using BIM is a saving of time resources, of human capacities, and of money. The financial benefits for the real estate industry by using BIM are especially considerable in facility management. By an early integration of a real estate maintenance phase into planning phase and construction phase, reinvestments necessary caused by suboptimal planning are avoidable. BIM integrates real estate-relevant data for all kind of the sector participants. Digital tools of the AEC industry can be used for marketing and distribution (e.g. analysis of building proposals, performing simulations, or benchmarking performances) and for decreasing maintenance costs (e.g. by controlling whole life costs and environmental data). Several case studies have shown that by using BM for the real estate sector, up to 40% of costs can be eliminated. Furthermore, time taken to generate cost estimations can be reduced by up to 80%. Moreover, savings of up to 10% of the contract values through clash detections and a reduction in project time up to 7% are the benefits of using BIM for the real estate sector. The case studies focused on savings of the facility management industry. A cost elimination and a rise in benefits will occur while implementing AEC digitalization tools to asset management, investment management, and property management as well. The objective of this paper is an investigation of already existing digitalization tools in the real estate sector, comparing and evaluating these tools with the digital method of BIM. This paper assesses the portability of the outcome of these studies for the European real estate industry of today. |
| Keywords: | Building Information Modeling; Digitalization; Facility Management; Real estate sector |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_266&r=all |
| By: | Robert Calvert Jump (University of the West of England, Bristol); Jo Michell (University of the West of England, Bristol) |
| Abstract: | The role of education in the geography of Brexit is usually examined using descriptive statistics and regression, which are ill-suited to the assessment of predictive capacity. By presenting in-sample and out-of-sample probit classification results, this paper demonstrates that educational attainment alone can correctly classify up to 92.24% of local authorities by voting outcome, including up to 80% of Remain-voting authorities. These results emphasise the importance of education as a key factor in the political geography of the Brexit vote. |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwe:wpaper:20191901&r=all |
| By: | Rodrigue Bazame; Harun Tanrivermis |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to review urbanization context in Burkina Faso and to analyse its implications in term of urban land management policy. Employing a qualitative methodology and conceptual lens of urban land development institutional aspect, this study benefited mainly form reviewing documents such as reports, scientific papers, plans, correspondences, as well as legislation and policies to analyse the land management context in urban areas in Burkina Faso through urban land supply process, urban land use patterns, use of land leverage tools and the political and institutional framework of urban policy.The results show that comparatively to other West African countries, Burkina Faso is the fastest urbanizing with average annual urban growth rate of roughly 5% for the period 1996-2016. In another hand, the country shows an increasing of its GDP per capita for the same period at a rate of 3.45 per year; making the country the third fast growing GDP per capita after Ghana and Nigeria where the growth was 4.45 and 4.65 percent per year respectively. The rapid urbanization in Burkina Faso is also characterized by the fast increase in urban households. Considering the period 1996-2014, while total households in the country increased by 53 percent, urban households increased by 142 percent. The main challenge of these increasing urban households is undoubtedly the provision of sufficient and convenient housing and employment.However and despite the political will, the successive governments fail to implement a coherent urban land management which has resulted as a surplus urban land supply especially for housing in the majority of towns/cities and which also lack of convenient infrastructures, with in addition almost half of the produced urban space remains unbuilt. The latter facts result as missing opportunity to use effectively land leverage tools like as land taxation, land value capture in a context where central and local governments suffer from deepened budget deficiency. In another hand, at the same time slums areas are still expanding with an increasing dwellers density. In order to improve urban land management recommendations in term of urban studies, urban governance, urban policy financing are provided at the end of the paper. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso; land leverage tools; Urban land management; urban land supply; Urban Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_264&r=all |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The investment choices we make in the coming years will either lock-in a climate-compatible, inclusive growth pathway, or a high-carbon, inefficient and unsustainable pathway for decades to come. Cities and regions, responsible for 60% of public investment in OECD countries, are significant contributes to spending and investment related to climate. With high levels of inequalities in many cities, the success of the transition will depend on the ability of local governments to engage in a “just” transition. This paper focuses on how national and sub-national governments can align subnational financial flows to transition towards low-carbon, resilient and inclusive cities. The paper is a contribution from the OECD Champion Mayors for Inclusive Growth initiative and to the OECD Programme on Subnational Finance and Investment. |
| Date: | 2019–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:17-en&r=all |
| By: | Konstantinos Nikolopoulos (Bangor University); Fotios Petropoulos (University of Bath); Vasco Sanchez Rodrigues (Cardiff University); Stephen Pettit (Cardiff University); Anthony Beresford (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Major earthquakes are black swan, or quasi-random, events capable of disrupting supply chains to an entire country, region or even the whole world as the case of the Fukushima disaster profoundly demonstrated. They are amongst the most unpredictable types of natural disasters, and can have a severe impact on supply chains and distribution networks. This research develops a supply chain risk management model in the anticipation of such a black swan event. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985 – 2014, and temporal as well as spatial aggregation is undertaken. The aim is to identify the optimum grid size where forecasting variance is minimized and forecastability is maximized. Building on that a risk-mitigation model is developed. The dynamic model – updated every time a new event is added in the database - includes preparedness, responsiveness and centralization strategies for the different levels of time and geographical aggregation. |
| Keywords: | Risk, Black Swans, Forecastability, Statistical Aggregation, Disaster Relief; |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bng:wpaper:19017&r=all |
| By: | Hossein Motahar; Ritika Batra; Annette Kaempf-Dern |
| Abstract: | Purpose: German housing industry has delivery shortages which leads to a lack of supply of dwellings. Some of these shortages are owing to the planning or construction delay that could be caused by the conflicts, such as delivery delay or cost excess, between the different involved stakeholders. These stakeholders have direct and indirect influence on quality, time and cost of every project and could affect construction process from initial phases to operation and procurement. This paper therefore, investigates the conflicts between involved stakeholders in German housing industry and see how they can affect time, cost and quality of the project.Methodology/ Approach: This study conducts a literature review on the stakeholders’ conflicts in German housing industry. The collected data is classified in different clusters and an integrated stakeholders’ conflicts model is presented.Findings: This paper presents the interests of involved stakeholders in German housing industry and as a result stakeholders’ interests are transparent. This enables the management team to identify where the conflicts occur can and manage the conflicts before they lead to delivery delay or cost excess.Limitations: The huge number of stakeholders makes it complicated to investigate the interests of all parties. Therefore this study focuses on ‘Manage closely’ stakeholders. Practical Implications: This research enables the housing industry to have a precise overview of its stakeholders and develops a foundation for stakeholders’ conflicts management.Originality/ Value: Compared to the common approaches this study contributes to the ‘manage closely’ stakeholders and discovers the most important group of the stakeholders in German housing industry and their interests as well and presents an integrated stakeholders’ conflicts model. It investigates the different conflicts between stakeholders’ interests and clarifies how these conflicts can lead to delivery delay or cost excess. |
| Keywords: | Conflict Management; German housing industry; Stakeholder Management; Stakeholders |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_354&r=all |
| By: | Farah, Alfa |
| Abstract: | Lower-level officials often engage in clientelistic relations with the upper-level government. The nature of these relations might be determined by institutional factors such as how the lower-level officials come into their position. This paper specifically highlights the different political incentives that elected versus appointed lower-level officials have for becoming political intermediaries for the upper-level government, and it investigates empirically how these differing incentives bring electoral consequences. Upon exploiting a natural experiment in Indonesia, the study found that the elected village headmen have stronger incentives to support the incumbent mayor than the appointed village headmen do. The results suggest that while civil service reforms might weaken the bureaucratic clientelism, the pre-existing patronclient relations that are deeply embedded in the society are immersed in local political competitions; thus, this practice challenges political consolidation in the young democracy. |
| Keywords: | clientelism,selection mechanism,local elections |
| JEL: | D72 H77 H83 O17 O18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:22019&r=all |
| By: | Julia Kolb; Ritika Batra; Annette Kaempf-Dern |
| Abstract: | Purpose: Service relationships have become an integral part of today’s businesses, with all their advantages and disadvantages. The real estate industry, in particular, the property management, also faces conflicts resulting from divergent expectations and interests of customers and providers. While conflict management is widely studied in general, its application in property management is not very common. Analysis of existing approaches in theory and practice for dealing with the conflicts may provide an approach/ methods for resolution of conflicts and improvement of relationships within property management. This paper, therefore, presents the conflict situations in real estate management services and an investigation of approaches for solving these conflicts. Design/methodology/approach: Extensive literature review of the current state of art in the field of conflict management by systematic research forms the base of this investigation. Findings: Information asymmetry and divergent interests can be a trigger for opportunistic behavior. Theoretical approaches like “screening”, “self-selection”, “signalling” as well as controlling and incentive systems try to reduce the risk of opportunistic behavior. A practical reference to conflict of interest as a result of information asymmetry and its resolution is visible in the examples of interim management and the relationship of a commercial agent and the sales manager. A summary of the compiled approaches and first assessment of practical applications such as incentives help to improve the property management relationships sustainably.Research limitations: The scope of this study is limited to examine theoretical approaches which deal with conflicts of interest as a result of information asymmetry and opportunistic behavior. This paper does not engage with the development of a final solution model. Practical implications: A review and investigation into the transferability of the theoretical approaches to the property management conflicts to put it into practice is needed before findings can be generalized. This shall lead to the development of a solution model without conflicts of interest in service relationships. Originality/value: The role of service relationships and the resulting conflicts from divergent expectations and interests comes to the fore. This paper thereby studies conflict management focused within property management, with a view to get a better foundation for sustainable and successful service relationships. |
| Keywords: | conflict of interest; Conflict resolutions; Property Management; Relationship management; Service relationships |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_333&r=all |
| By: | Lukas Kiessling; Pia Pinger; Philipp Seegers; Jan Bergerhoff |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that closely resembles actual wage differences, prevails across subgroups, and along the entire distribution. To understand the underlying causes and determinants, we relate expected wages to sorting into majors, industries, and occupations, child-rearing plans, perceived and actual ability, personality, perceived discrimination, and negotiation styles. Our findings indicate that sorting and negotiation styles affect the gender gap in wage expectations much more than prospective child-related labor force interruptions. Given the importance of wage expectations for labor market decisions, household bargaining, and wage setting, our results provide an explanation for persistent gender inequalities. |
| Keywords: | subjective wage expectations, gender gap, negotiation styles |
| JEL: | D81 D84 I21 I23 J13 J30 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7827&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Philippe Berrou (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LAM - Les Afriques dans le monde - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux); Claire Gondard-Delcroix (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper carries out an analysis of the formation and transformation of social relations and networks of access to resources in the professional trajectory of micro-entrepreneurs operating in an urban informal African economy. The analysis of social networks is rooted in Granovetter's structural embeddedness framework combined with the dynamic and discursive conception of social relations of Harisson White (embeddedness and decoupling). Life stories of micro and small entrepreneurs in Bobo-Dioulasso (Burkina-Faso) are analyzed by mixing qualitative and quantitative methods. Results suggest that the construction of social networks and interpersonal relations of access to resources is a long-term process. A co-construction of social networks and economic activity is observed; it challenges the argument that social capital is a substitute for a lack of personal resources. The growth of small and micro activities is linked to the professionalization and stabilization of a social network, and even to the institutionalization of access to resources. |
| Keywords: | Embeddedness,Social Networks,Informal economy,Entrepreneurial stories,Mixed methods JEL Classification |
| Date: | 2018–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02280415&r=all |
| By: | Ijeoma Jane Emeghe; Kathy Pain; Flora Samuel |
| Abstract: | Mental health and well-being receives a growing source of concern and it is an ever-evolving field of research to international institutions, governments, scholars, communities and individuals alike. The research focused on housing quality, autonomy and mental well-being investigates the associativity that may exist between these, which are the influences of the physical conditions of the home and the psychosocial environment on individual mental well-being, with an aim to deriving quantifiable estimates for statistically significant factors, that is, monetising well-being within the UK housing environment, currently understudied. Following on from literature, the research is underpinned using a trio-theoretical framework designed to measure health inequality; however, adapted to suit the current research. A mixed methodological technique is employed that caters to the two divides of the study. On the one hand, the study examines existing micro (household unit of analysis) panel data set relating to housing quality and mental well-being analysis, and the financial estimation of relevant factors. On the other, and due to obvious drawbacks on existing data set with regards to environmental and design quality and occupier autonomy, the second part of the research conducts one-to-one semi-structured in-depth interviews on a select case study to plug the identified gaps on individual well-being research. The contributions of the study are wide-ranging spanning informing policy circles and housing providers’ decision making, to informing an improvement to the UK social value toolkit through the well-being valuation approach. Where this approach doubles as mediation to inequality by revealing salient well-being needs for effective resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | autonomy; Health and mental well-being; Housing quality; Well-being valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_43&r=all |
| By: | Maarten Vanhoof (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Antonia Godoy-Lorite (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Roberto Murcio (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Iacopo Iacopini (The Alan Turing Institute, CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Natalia Zdanowska (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Juste Raimbault (ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - X - École polytechnique - Institut Curie - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Richard Milton (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Elsa Arcaute (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]); Mike Batty (CASA - Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis - UCL - University College of London [London]) |
| Date: | 2019–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02284843&r=all |
| By: | Nadezdha Baryshnikova (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Shannon. F. Davidson (Deloitte); Dennis Wesselbaum (University of Otago) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the weather-crime relationship using a unique high-frequency, city-level data set for the United States with 2.4 mio. observations. In contrast to the existing literature using (often) daily data, we match hourly observations of weather and crime. Our results show that using daily observations overestimates the effect of temperature and underestimates the effect of precipitation on crime and leads to different conclusions about the significance of variables. We document evidence for a non-linear relationship between weather variables and crime. Again, results differ greatly between daily and hourly observations. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Non-linearity, Weather |
| JEL: | K42 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2019-07&r=all |
| By: | Limor Golan (Dr.); Carl Sanders (Washington University in St. Louis); Jonathan James (California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo) |
| Abstract: | The black-white pay gap increases substantially over the life-cycle. We document that white workers are assigned initially to occupations with higher complex task requirements. The accumulated earnings gap grows from $30K after 5 years to $143K after 15 years. The growth in the total earrings gap are large even for workers with the same education and AFQT scores. During these years, the gap in the degree of task complexity grows substantially. To understand the source of these long run pay gaps and to analyze their link to occupational sorting and experience, we develop a dynamic Roy model of employment and occupation choice and learning which nests discrimination and accounts for the dynamic selection of workers into occupations over time. We then develop a two-step estimation method to recover the model’s structural parameters, and use them to simulate counterfactual exercises that allows us to decompose the different factors affecting these gaps. About 27% of the total pay gap after 15 years is explained by higher entry costs of black workers into complex-task occupation. In addition, equating the initial pre-market skills and the initial mean differences in beliefs (which reflect differences in initial unobserved skills) explain about half of the total earnings after 15 years. This reflects the importance of sorting of workers into jobs over time in explaining the long-term earnings gaps, and the role of mismatch of workers to occupation in explaining the long-run racial pay gaps. Our estimates indicate that the variance of beliefs is increasing substantially more for white workers. This is consistent with statistical discrimination (Phelps 1972) and also reflecting unobserved promotion gaps and training gaps. While the pre-market skill gaps (observed and unobserved) between black and white workers are clearly an important factor in the labor market outcome gaps, frictions and discrimination are important determinants of the life-cycle labor market outcome gaps. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:320&r=all |
| By: | Morales, Marina |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyze whether parent’s decision about owning one’s own dwelling may be an important determinant of the future homeownership decisions of their children in Spain. To address this issue, we use data from the Survey of Living Conditions (2011). Our results confirm the intergenerational transmission of homeownership in Spain, in such a way that the probability that the respondent own their home is determined, although not exclusively, by their parent’s homeownership decision during their teenage years. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership, Intergenerational transmission, Spain |
| JEL: | D12 R21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96047&r=all |
| By: | Douglas Hanley (University of Pittsburgh); Chengying Luo (University of Pittsburgh); Mingqin Wu (South China Normal University) |
| Abstract: | The spatial arrangement of firms is known to be a critical factor influencing a variety of firm level outcomes. Numerous existing studies have investigated the importance of firm density and localization at various spatial scales, as well as agglomeration by industry. In this paper, we bring relatively new data and techniques to bear on the issue. Regarding the data, we use a comprehensive census of firms conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This covers firms in all industries and localities, and we have waves from both 2004 and 2008 available. Past studies have largely relied on manufacturing firms. This additional data allows us to look more closely at clustering within services, as well as potential spillovers between services and manufacturing. Further, by looking at the case of China, we get a snapshot of a country (especially in the early 2000s) in a period of rapid transition, but one that has already industrialized to a considerable degree. Additionally, this is an environment shaped by far more aggressive industrial policies than those seen in much of Western Europe and North America. In terms of techniques, we take a machine learning approach to understanding firm clustering and agglomeration. Specifically, we use images generated by density maps of firm location data (from the NBS data) as well as linked satellite imagery from the Landsat 7 spacecraft. This allows us to frame the issue as one of prediction. By predicting firm outcomes such as profitability, productivity, and growth using these images, we can understand their relationship to firm clustering. By turning this into a prediction problem using images as inputs, we can tap into the rich and rapidly evolving literature in computer science and machine learning on deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Additionally, we can utilize software and hardware tools developed for these purposes. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1522&r=all |
| By: | Niels Kuiper; Mark Van Duijn; Arno Van der Vlist |
| Abstract: | Local urban redevelopment policy measures which entail the transformation of obsolete inner-city industrial areas target the local economy by bringing jobs and prosperity to the neighborhood. These transformed areas attract higher-income households into the neighborhood, bringing about a new era of gentrification and local jobs. The influx of spending power subsequently boosts the local economy. The policy issue is whether urban redevelopment constitutes an incubator or spurs a displacement of jobs. The outcome is far-reaching as considerable amounts of public funds are utilized to shape the urban economy. If redevelopment would spur a displacement of jobs, then this would crowd-out jobs in other neighborhoods. The topic of this research is to identify the causal linkage between urban redevelopment and the local economy. Transforming urban areas entails a place-based treatment to the local economy (Koster and Van Ommeren, 2019). Local transformation and the redevelopment of unused industrial cultural heritage have been undertaken in many cities in many countries. For example, more than 200 sites have been redeveloped in the Netherlands over the last twenty years. Instead of leaving the cultural heritage unused, or clearing the sites to make place for new development, policy makers choose for the option of redevelopment because they argue two positive externalities will result from it. First, the redevelopment of cultural heritage is said to positively impact the living environment of the surrounding areas due to the unique esthetics and character of cultural heritage. Second, the redevelopment is also said to positively impact the local economy by providing unique workplaces that will attract firms from the creative sector, who generate local spillovers. Remarkably, few studies have tried to evaluate these externalities empirically. This is particularly important since the presumed externalities are used to justify large public place-based investments. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of redevelopment projects on the local economy. We propose a modeling framework to study the direct and indirect effects of the redevelopment projects. We examine micro level data on registered firms and employment in the Netherlands covering the period 1996-2016. We combine the jobs data with a dataset covering 188 urban redevelopment projects. We demonstrate that the spatial detail of the data, in combination with the use of GIS software, provides information on exact numbers of jobs present within a redevelopment project, as well as its surrounding area. Preliminary findings suggest that the redevelopment of cultural heritage results in a positive direct effect on employment within the site that is redeveloped. Only a small fraction of the jobs that are created within the redevelopment projects are within the creative industries. This is interesting since this is the sector that is expected to be most drawn to cultural heritage, and a sector that theoretically generates large spillovers. Further analyses consider indirect effects of the redevelopment of cultural heritage. This gives insight into whether or not the direct effects of the redevelopment generate positive spillovers for the surrounding area, or displacement of jobs. |
| Keywords: | Cultural Heritage; Displacement; Local Economy; Policy Evaluation; Urban Redevelopment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_338&r=all |
| By: | Matthew Delventhal (Claremont McKenna College) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I develop a quantitative dynamic spatial model of global economic development over the long run. There is an agricultural (ancient) sector and a non-agricultural (modern) sector. Innovation, technology diffusion, and population growth are endogenous. A set of plausible parameter restrictions makes this model susceptible to analysis using classic network theory concepts. Aggregate connectivity is summarized by the largest eigenvalue of the matrix of inverse iceberg transport costs, and the long-run path of the world economy displays threshold behavior. If transport costs are high enough, the world remains in a stagnant, Malthusian steady state; if they are low enough enough, this sets off an endogenous process of sustained growth in population and income. Taking the model to the data, I divide the world into 16,000 1 degree by 1 degree quadrangles. I infer bilateral transport costs by calculating the cheapest route between each pair of locations given the placement of rivers, oceans and mountains. I infer a series of global transport networks using historical estimates of the costs of transport over land and water and their evolution over time. I then simulate the evolution of population and income from the year 1000 until the year 2000 CE. I use the model to calculate two sets of location-specific efficiency parameters, one for the ancient sector and one for the modern sector, that rationalize both the year 1000 population distribution and the year 2000 distribution of income per capita. I then calculate the relative contributions of each set of efficiency wedges, and key historical shifts in transport costs, to the year 2000 variance of per-capita real income. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:840&r=all |
| By: | Gregor Jarosch; Jan Sebastian Nimczik; Isaac Sorkin |
| Abstract: | We build a model where firm size is a source of labor market power. The key mechanism is that a granular employer can eliminate its own vacancies from a worker's outside option in the wage bargain. Hence, a granular employer does not compete with itself. We show how wages depend on employment concentration and then use the model to quantify the effects of granular market power. In Austrian micro-data, we find that granular market power depresses wages by about ten percent and can explain 40 percent of the observed decline in the labor share from 1997 to 2015. Mergers decrease competition for workers and reduce wages even at non-merging firms. |
| JEL: | E2 J01 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26239&r=all |
| By: | Fernando Saltiel (University of Maryland, College Park) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between pre-college skills and the gender gap in STEM majors. Using longitudinal data for the United States, I estimate a discrete choice model of initial and final major choices in which college students sort into majors based on observed characteristics and unobserved ability. More specifically, I distinguish observed test scores from latent ability. I find that math test scores significantly overstate gender gaps in math problem solving ability. Math problem solving ability strongly predicts STEM enrollment and completion for men and women. I further explore the importance of math self-efficacy, which captures students’ beliefs about their ability to perform math-related tasks. Math self-efficacy raises both men’s and women’s probability of enrolling in a STEM major. Math self-efficacy also plays a critical role in explaining decisions to drop out of STEM majors for women, but not for men. The correlation between the two math ability components is higher for men than for women, indicating a relative shortfall of high-achieving women who are confident in their math ability. Lastly, I estimate the returns to STEM enrollment and completion and find large returns for high math ability women. These findings suggest that well-focused math self-efficacy interventions could boost women’s STEM participation and graduation rates. Further, given the high returns to a STEM major for high math ability women, such interventions also could improve women’s labor market outcomes. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1201&r=all |
| By: | Julian Seger; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | Since decades, the choice between ownership, leasing or renting in corporate real estate management has been discussed in numerous articles. The studies have mainly focused on demonstrating the negative effects of ownership on the capital market performance of non-property companies. A wide variety of influencing factors has been identified, which demonstrably determine the real estate ownership strategy as well as its valuation by the capital market. The reliance of the ownership decision on the real estate specificity instead, has been explained by its strategic importance, but in the course of a theoretical, resource based approach only. This one-dimensional view misses possible consequences for other company divisions though. A further complicating factor is that the strategic value of specific resources, which is a major motive in favor of ownership decisions, is strongly dependent on business environmental changes. In times of structural change and increasing uncertainty, this could cause investments in specific real estate to be withheld or even alternatives to ownership to be considered. This paper aims at filling this research gap by using German balance sheet and capital market data to prove the linkage between specificity and ownership intensity by taking environmental dynamics into account and to show potential effects on the capital market performance.The article begins with a literature-based derivation of the concept of specificity focusing on the theory of the firm on the one hand and its role in corporate finance on the other. The impact of ownership, leasing or rental solutions in the case of specific real estate can be operationalised by using a framework of Pfnuer/Seger (2018). In the following multivariate regression analysis, the influence of real estate specificity on the intensity of ownership is tested while also environmental dynamics are considered. The valuation of the capital market is examined using the Fama-French factor model.The article points out on a theoretical level that ownership of specific real estate is not only based on its strategic importance. Moreover, questions of corporate finance and changes in the business environment are also relevant. Empirical evidence confirms the positive correlation between specificity and ownership strategy. In addition, the analysis provides information on the influence of specificity and ownership strategy on capital market performance.The paper expands the scientific discourse by explicitly linking real estate specificity with the choice between ownership, leasing or rental solutions and corporate success. The article concludes that the irreversibility of specific real estates should be considered in the ownership decision in order to avoid inefficiencies. This especially accounts for firms which operate in a structurally changing business environment. |
| Keywords: | Corporate real estate management; Firm Performance; real estate ownership; specificity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_132&r=all |
| By: | Hieke Van der Kloet |
| Abstract: | According to the Dutch housing policy for the elderly independent living is the future way of life: stay at home longer when you get older. As a consequence the aging population in the Netherlands indeed lives less in institutions the last years. The general insight is that aging residents prefer to stay independent at their own home. However it is known the aging population process is the largest in the periphery of the Netherlands. This might be no problem as in general the dwellings in rural areas seems suitable, in the sense that a residence is accessible and through accessible without climbing stairs to the main dwelling rooms. The main challenge for the elderly in these areas is –if this is needed- the care and support at home. In general the moving mobility in the Netherlands is rather low, especially among the elderly and in particular among older owner-occupiers. As a consequence older owner-occupiers live independently for longer than tenants. Older owner-occupiers and tenants live on average more than twenty years in the same neighbourhood whereas owner-occupiers of 65 years and older even live five years longer in the same area. Precisely this last group -mostly living in a land-bound property- strongly increases in the Netherlands the last years. Therefore our first research question is: Why stay in your own dwelling in a peripheral area if you ‘re getting older and might be in need of care or have to deal with a diminishing health? Are older homeowners more attached to their home in the course of time or are they forced to stay because of the declining housing prices in these regions?The second question concerns the homeowner who decides to stay in the region independently as long as possible. How can you manage to stay at your own home if you live at the countryside and need care? Which needs do aging people have to live longer independently in their own home? Which ICT and smart home technology do they –according to themselves- need now and in future?Our study aims to contribute to the research on the motivations of older owner-occupiers in peripheral regions of the Netherlands for staying independent at their own home as long as possible. Another goal is to improve the living conditions of aging people maybe with help of smart home technology and house adjustments so they live independently as long as possible in their own home.First of all we want to declare why older owner-occupiers stay in a peripheral or depopulating region. Why would they stay in a region with less facilities? We use a mixed-methods approach for data collection starting with desk research, data-analysis of e.g. the European Quality of Life Survey, focus group discussion and semi-structured interviews with aging people living in different regions in the Netherlands. Our results show that the majority of the interviewees mostly has no problems with independent living. According to themselves they have adequate solutions for staying at home as long as possible. Most respondents have a positive attitude towards ICT-adjustments and smart home technology to overcome moving difficulties, feeling comfortable and save at home now and in the future.From the results we conclude that most of the interviewed respondents -according to themselves- are well equipped, prefer to stay independent at their own home and don’t want to move to an institution.Advise to the Dutch government is to support the older residents of the rural regions to stay at their own homes maybe with help of smart home technology. For sustainability of the communities in these peripheral areas (access to) fast Internet is the most important condition. This will help to improve the regional development and attractiveness of areas that are effected by depopulation. |
| Keywords: | Aging; Independent living; Rural areas; Smart home technology; Stayers/Immobility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_197&r=all |
| By: | Wei Keat Benny Ng; Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek; Myriam Cloodt; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | Technology development is increasingly important for creating efficient and sustainable economies. One of the innovation policies are science parks, area developments where technology-based firms and knowledge-based institutions co-locate. Preferences of technology-based firms relate to the presence and quality of certain facilities, services, and location attributes, which are means for achieving organizational goals. As science parks are locations that generally offer a mix of such facilities and services, it can be configured in numerous ways. The gap between what science parks offer and what tenants need has been acknowledged as troublesome by science park managers and tenants as this gap can negatively influence the performance of science parks and their tenants. Therefore, this study focuses on the preferences of technology-based firms in relation to science park attributes and if different target groups can be distinguished from these preferences. To collect data about preferences, an online survey is distributed among technology-based firms both on and off science parks in the Netherlands. Using the technique of stated-choice experiments, decision-makers of technology-based firms (i.e. CEOs) are presented carefully designed hypothetical science-park locations and asked to indicate which location they would prefer if they would relocate. In the experimental design used, each hypothetical location consists of seven attributes each with three levels. The choice data allows for estimating the preference values for the different levels of each attribute, while taking into account the respondent’s current situation, using a discrete choice model as framework (a latent class model). This research provides insights on which science park attributes are desirable for technology-based firms and how much firms are willing-to-pay for particular attributes. Furthermore, differences in preferences between distinct target groups among technology-based firms are analyzed. For practice, the insights allow management of science parks to better adapt services and location characteristics to demands of the target groups of interest. |
| Keywords: | Corporate real estate management; science parks; Stated choice experiment; Technology firms |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_40&r=all |
| By: | Michal Burzynski (LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (Luxembourg)); Christoph Deuster (IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal)); Frederic Docquier (LISER (Luxembourg), FNRS and IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and FERDI (France)); Jaime de Melo (Universite de Geneve (Switzerland), CEPR (United Kingdom) and FERDI (France)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to highlatitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20 % of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Migration, Inequality, Urbanization, Conflicts |
| JEL: | E24 F22 J24 J61 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2019014&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Dabara; Adebayo Ogunba; John Oyekunle Soladoye; Augustina Chiwuzie |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study examined the correlations among the structure, conduct and performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Nigeria (N-REITs) with a view to providing information that will enhance and guide real estate investment decisions. Design/Methods followed/Approach: The study population consisted of all the three REIT companies in Nigeria namely: Skye Shelter Fund, Union Home REITs and UACN Property Development Company (UPDC) REITs. Secondary data on dividends and share prices of N-REITs; Total Business Revenues (TBR) and Total Individual Expenditure (TIE) on conduct variables were sourced from periodicals of the respective companies covering the period from 2008 to 2016. The data series for the study were analyzed by means of the Granger Causality tests, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schimidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, Philip-Perron (PP) unit root tests and the ordinary least square regression (OLS). Findings: The study showed a Herfindahl Hischman Index (HHI) that ranged between 41.81% (recorded in 2010) and 100% recorded in 2008. This suggested a high concentration in the N-REITs industry. Similarly, the study found that the returns on investment in the industry ranged between -0.24% and 22.07%. The Granger Causality Test conducted revealed a bi-directional causal relationship among the structure, conduct and performance of N-REITs.Practical Implication: The study provided essential information for stakeholders in the real estate sector regarding the influence of structure and conduct on the performance of N-REITs. This information will be valuable for equipping asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds as well as individual real estate investors in making informed investment decisions. Originality/Value: This study is unique as it is the first to draw a link between the structure, conduct and performance of REITs in an African emerging real estate market which was hitherto not considered in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | conduct; investment performance; market structure; real estate; Returns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_36&r=all |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Fujita, Masahisa |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this note is to update an ancient controversy over the comparison between discrete and continuous agent models of land use and agent location in urban economics. Berliant (1985) shows that that the following statement is self-contradictory: "There is a continuum of agents, each of whom owns or is endowed with a positive Lebesgue measure of land." A corollary follows: "As the number of agents tends to infinity, the set of agents who own a positive Lebesgue measure of land shrinks to zero." The basic question is this: Under what circumstances, if any, can we reconcile the two models? |
| Keywords: | Large urban economies; Continuous and discrete agent models |
| JEL: | D51 R13 R14 |
| Date: | 2019–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95797&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Barczyk (McGill University); Matthias Kredler (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Sean Fahle (SUNY Buffalo) |
| Abstract: | We propose that interactions among old-age risks, housing, and family insurance are key for understanding the economic behavior of the elderly. Empirically, we find that homeownership reduces dis-saving while increasing the likelihood and persistence of informal care from children, which in turn protects bequests by preventing nursing home entry. Nonetheless, elderly parents and the childless display strikingly similar savings and bequests. Additionally, we calculate that one-fourth of transfers from retired parents to children flow before death. We build a dynamic model featuring strategic interactions between imperfectly-altruistic parent and child households, a housing choice, and long-term-care risk. The model successfully rationalizes our empirical findings. Homes are valuable for inducing care from children, accounting for 10% of ownership. Although the childless have no altruistic motive for saving, they resemble parents because they lack family insurance and thus have a stronger precautionary motive. Parents withhold most transfers until death for strategic reasons. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:361&r=all |
| By: | Andreas Saxinger; Thomas Wagner |
| Abstract: | Temporary living plays an increasing role in today's society. Various temporary living concepts for many different groups of users can be observed on the market, but so far no exact definition exists in German law thus no special legal regulations on temporary living can be found in the planning and building law. Here the question arises which type of use is most suitable for temporary living. Depending on each individual case, temporary living projects including serviced apartments can either be defined as the following property types: residential, hotel or holiday flats. Crucial for the distinction between these three types is the operating concept in place, not the designation chosen by the respective operator. The use type residential is defined as a long-term habitat. Self-furnishing and the free choice of habitation are defining characteristics of residential properties.The use type hotel includes facilities which offer temporary accommodation to constantly changing guests in return for payment. Guests are not able to organise their habitation independently. They are required to use external services, such as catering, restaurants and cleaning.Holiday flats are rooms or properties which are temporarily made available to a constantly changing circle of guests for a fee. This kind of accommodation is suitable and intended to establish an own habitat for a short limited period of time.A major criterion for successful temporary living projects is the right choice of the location. The eleven zoning categories in the German Federal building code need to be checked carefully whether they are suitable as locations for temporary living projects. The German zoning categories special residential areas, mixed-use areas and urban areas are particularly suitable for temporary living, because there are no legal restrictions regarding the use types as defined above. In other German zoning categories like residential or commercial only residential or respectively hotel uses are allowed. Further considerations arise when the operator intends to change the temporary living concept in place, for example by changing his use concept from residential to hotel. In this case, the operator needs to verify, if in the German zoning category hotels are allowed. |
| Keywords: | hotels; residentials; serviced apartments; temporary living projets; zoning categories |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_92&r=all |
| By: | Sviatlana Engerstam; Rosane Hungria-Gunnelin |
| Abstract: | Co-working is a raising global trend in office property markets. Sweden is one of these markets experiencing a huge expansion of co-working. Though the share of co-working spaces is still quite small in comparison to the whole property market, the growth dynamics propels real estate actors to develop new business models that in turn raise the necessity for the analysis of risks associated with these models.When office premises are rented in a traditional way, the landlord often requires a bank guarantee from the tenant. The bank guarantee is a risk hedging tool against risks associated with the company growth, profitability, especially in the case of a new establishment like startup companies. The bank guarantee amount normally equals a certain number of monthly rental payments and is used when the company cannot pay the rents. In Sweden, traditional rental contracts for office space vary between three to five years and are signed by the landlord and the tenant, who is the final user of the space rented.In the case of co-working, office premises are often not rented directly to the final user, but rather indirectly through operation companies . Example of such companies are WeWork, United spaces, Workaround, etc, who sign very short rental contracts with the end user of the premise. The rentals based on a short-term contract that is not subject to bank guarantee, often implies greater risk in comparison to longer rental contracts. How do different property market actors like banks, landlord and tenants evaluate these risks? Are there any risk shifts connected to business cycles, type of tenant, industry and other factors? This paper aims to provide answers to these questions.Descriptive approach and interviews with local actors as a main method of analysis is used in this paper. The result of this paper presents the framework of risks shifts in the co-working environment, which contributes to the existing research by providing a deeper understanding of this emerging trend and its implications. |
| Keywords: | bank guarantee; co-working; Risks |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_363&r=all |
| By: | Varma, Jayanth R.; Morris, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We propose a mechanism that uses the financial markets to mobilize the resources of a large population of investors, to revive the impaired assets in the real sector in India today. This should also allow the economy to escape from the strangle hold of the “doom loop”, in which the financial sector, the infrastructure and real estate sectors and the economy in general through their feedback effects on each other, portend to take the economy deeper into the recession. The mechanism where the government covers the left tail risk in infrastructure and real estate, has the potential to revive these assets to the benefit of the homebuyers, users and the public, with the government earning a handsome return, while being fair to the developers as well. With such a mechanism in place, in the future, developers would know that using distressed public value to their advantage would not be possible in the future. |
| Date: | 2019–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14612&r=all |
| By: | Peter Parlasca; Vincent Tronet |
| Abstract: | Residential Real Estate Statistics is a well-developed domain of official statistics already enshrined in a legal act in 2013. As a consequence, recent and legacy data are available for all EU Member States.Statistics in Commercial Real Estate are less developed for several reasons. One decisive reason is the heterogeneity of CRE asking for clear definitions of the element „commercial“ and the split in subcategories before starting to develop any price indices. The statistical working paper https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/7870049/8545612/KS-FT-16-001-EN-N.pdf/9e4bbc9b-8c6f-44a9-b686-1083a7a8fa0f developed internationally and published by Eurostat end 2017 supports efforts for compiling data.A high number of methodological questions were dealt within the International Conference www.real-estate-statistics.eu. In its sixth session, a wide spectrum of topics in particular related to Commercial Real Estate was discussed. A summary of the conference findings might be useful to present in order to enrich the discussion for further developing this new statistical domain.In many Member States private data providers play a key role or are the only data provider due to missing official statistics even. The methodology of private data providers differs in various countries and the methods applied are not always made public. However, the macro prudential analysis of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the ECB request data comparable not only over time but also across Member States. The ESRB expressed its data needs for monitoring the macro prudential stance of Member States in its recommendation on closing Real Estate data gaps encompassing both Residential and Commercial Real Estate data.The ECB is working on the indicators shedding light in the financial sphere of Commercial Real Estate. The AnaCredit project with its first data transmissions of some countries since autumn 2018 plays a key role. The ESS is complementing the picture by paving the way to the collection of information for physical indicators. This includes pilot projects targeting the development of price, rent and yield related indicators. Another work stream of the ESS targets the collection of data on construction starts and completions of Commercial Real Estate projects. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Data Gaps; Indicators; price indices; real estate statistics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_279&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Dauth (University of Wuerzburg); Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee (Queen Mary University of London); Sebastian Findeisen (University of Mannheim); Tommaso Porzio (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | In 1992, East Germans’ nominal wages were about half of West Germans’. By 1996, the gap reduced to a third, and today is about a quarter. We use matched employer-employee data for the universe of (male) Germans with social security records to study the determinants of this steep convergence. Our main result is that about half of the total convergence is driven by an improvement in the allocation of East German labor across firms. The bulk of this is driven by improvements in within-region reallocation in earlier years, while migration of East Germans toWestern firms steadily grows to explain more in recent years. Before 1991, both East German firms and workers were exposed to a distorted labor market under the planned economy of the German Democratic Republic. After reunification, both firms and workers were exposed to the same labor market policies as in West Germany, while workers were also allowed to freely move across the (former) border. The evidence suggests that the competitive labor market succeeded in quickly unraveling most of the misallocation generated by the planned economy. Consistent with this hypothesis, older birth-cohorts, who were exposed to distorted labor markets for a longer period, were the ones to gain the most immediately following reunification. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:139&r=all |