nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒09‒02
forty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Social Connectedness in Urban Areas By Bailey, Michael; Farrell, Patrick; Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes
  2. A free rider problem? The effect of electric vehicles on urban toll prices in Norway By Lana Krehic
  3. Who Bears the Burden of Real Estate Transfer Taxes? Evidence from the German Housing Market By h.c. Clemens Fuest; Mathias Dolls; Carla Krolage; Florian Neumeier
  4. Does E-Commerce Reduce Traffic Congestion? Evidence from Alibaba Single Day Shopping Event By Cong Peng
  5. Housing Wealth Effects and Mortgage Borrowing: The Effect of Subjective Unanticipated Changes in Home Values on Home Equity Extraction in Denmark By Andersen, Henrik Yde; Leth-Petersen, Søren
  6. Does decentralization of governance promote urban diversity? Evidence from Spain By Jorge Diaz-Lanchas; Raymond J.G.M. Florax; Peter Mulder
  7. Spatial pattern and city size distribution By Tomoya Mori
  8. STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN CITY SYSTEMS EVOLUTION: CITY GROWTH IN SWEDEN 1810-2010 By Andersson, Martin; Johansson, Börje; Niedomysl, Thomas
  9. An Analysis to Detect Exuberance and Implosion in Regional House Prices in Turkey By Evren Ceritoglu; Seyit Mumin Cilasun; Ufuk Demiroglu; Aytul Ganioglu
  10. Dynamic Social Interactions and Health Risk Behavior By Arduini, Tiziano; Bisin, Alberto; Ozgur, Onur; Patacchini, Eleonora
  11. Lending above macroprudential mortgage limits: The Irish experience since 2015 By Kinghan, Christina; McCann, Fergal
  12. Crime and Networks: 10 Policy Lessons By Lindquist, Matthew; Zenou, Yves
  13. The Geography of Mortgage Lending in Times of FinTech By Christoph Basten; Steven Ongena
  14. Old sins cast long shadows: The Long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland on residential By Martin Guzi; Peter Huber; Stepan Mikula
  15. Reducing Frictions in College Admissions: Evidence from the Common Application By Brian G. Knight; Nathan M. Schiff
  17. Hedonic house price indices for Malta: A mortgage-based approach By Reuben Ellul; Jude Darmanin; Ian Borg
  18. Impact of Early Childcare on Immigrant Children’s Educational Performance By Luca Corazzini; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese
  19. The Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States By Bradley Setzler; Felix Tintelnot
  20. European office markets, user costs and speculative bubbles By Voigtländer, Michael; Schuster, Florian
  21. Neighborhoods, Social Class, and Reciprocity: Evidence Using Representative Artefactual Data from Latin America By Arlette Beltrán; Alberto Chong; Mariano Montoya
  22. Economic-base theory and highly-open economies: incorporating day-to- day mobility By Philippe Poinsot; Jean-François Ruault
  23. Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification? By Leah Platt Boustan; Robert A. Margo; Matthew M. Miller; James M. Reeves; Justin P. Steil
  24. Estimating an Equilibrium Model of Horizontal Competition in Education By Bau, Natalie
  26. Productivity, Network Effects and Telecommunications Capital: Evidence from the US and Europe By Edquist, Harald; Goodridge, Peter; Haskel, Jonathan
  27. Combining Fog Computing and LoRaWAN Technologies for Smart Cities Applications By Sobhi, Salma; Ali, Maged A.; Abdelkader, Mohamed F.
  28. Do Health Insurance Mandates Spillover to Education? Evidence from Michigan's Autism Insurance Mandate By Riley K. Acton; Scott A. Imberman; Michael F. Lovenheim
  29. Far from random? : The role of homophily in student supervision By Rossello, Giulia; Cowan, Robin
  30. Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Nitsch, Volker; Wendland, Nicolai
  31. The birth and development of the Italian automotive industry (1894-2015) and the Turin car cluster. By Enrietti, Aldo; Geuna, Aldo; Nava, Consuelo R.; Patrucco, Pier Paolo
  32. Spatial Competition and Effectiveness of Soda Tax: Evidence from Berkeley and Philadelphia By Balagtas, Joseph V.; He, Xiaoyang
  33. The Effects of Working while in School: Evidence from Uruguayan Lotteries By Araya, Federico; Le Barbanchon, Thomas; Ubfal, Diego
  34. Subnational Government Debt Governance: Lessons from Non-Asian Emerging Economies By Jorge Martinez-Vazquez; Yasin Civelek
  35. Achieving spatial connectivity for threshold public goods through payments for ecosystem services – Evidence from a framed field experiment with oil palm farmers in Indonesia. By Rudolf, Katrin
  36. Southern (American) Hospitality: Italians in Argentina and the US during the Age of Mass Migration By Santiago Pérez
  37. Inter-Regional Population Re-distribution in Soviet Russia Revisited By Kumo, Kazuhiro
  38. Coupling activity-based modeling and life cycle assessment-a proof-of-concept study on cross-border commuting in Luxembourg By Baustert, Paul; Gutiérrez, Tomás Navarrete; Gibon, Thomas; Chion, Laurent; Ma, Tai Yu; Mariante, Gabriel Leite; Klein, Sylvain; Gerber, Philippe; Benetto, Enrico
  39. The Route of Development in intra-regional Income Equality via High-Speed Rail: Evidence from China By Yu, Wenjing; Yao, Yansang
  40. Gender Differences in Wage Expectations: Sorting, Children, and Negotiation Styles By Kiessling, Lukas; Pinger, Pia; Seegers, Philipp K.; Bergerhoff, Jan
  41. Does neighborhood matter? Spatial proximity and farmer technical efficiency in Ethiopia By Tirkaso, Wondmagegn T.; Hailu, Atakelty G.

  1. By: Bailey, Michael; Farrell, Patrick; Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes
    Abstract: We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to explore the spatial structure of social networks in the New York metro area. We highlight the importance of transportation infrastructure in shaping urban social networks by showing that travel time and travel costs are substantially stronger predictors of social connectedness between zip codes than geographic distance is. We also document significant heterogeneity in the geographic breadth of social networks across New York zip codes, and show that much of this heterogeneity is explained by the ease of access to public transit, even after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics of the zip codes' residents. When we group zip codes with strong social ties into hypothetical communities using an agglomerative clustering algorithm, we find that geographically non-contiguous locations are grouped into socially connected communities, again highlighting that geographic distance is an imperfect proxy for urban social connectedness. We also explore the social connections between New York zip codes and foreign countries, and highlight how these are related to past migration movements.
    Keywords: Agglomeration externalities; Social Connectedness; Transportation Infrastructure
    JEL: R1 R2 R3
    Date: 2019–06
  2. By: Lana Krehic (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Several cities around the world try to internalise congestion costs from road traffic by instituting charges for entering their city centres. The revenues collected from these charges are often redistributed to improve conditions for motorists, cy- clists, pedestrians and public transport. At the same time, many schemes allow for exemption of cleaner vehicles, which might offset the reduction in congestion and reduce revenue. In this paper, I assess the effects of exempting electric vehicles from charge on the charge level. Using panel data of Norwegian cities with urban toll rings, I exploit regional variation, and and that a higher share of electric vehicles increase toll charges. The results imply that owners of conventional cars pay 2.5 NOK (0.3 USD) more per passing because of the exemption. The estimates are robust to variations in estimation method and sample. As the majority of electric vehicle owners have above-average income, exempting electric cars from toll charges suggests a distribution effect that have implications for social welfare.
    Keywords: Electric vehicles, Toll road, Distributional effects
    JEL: H23 R40 R42
    Date: 2019–07–25
  3. By: h.c. Clemens Fuest; Mathias Dolls; Carla Krolage; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of real estate transfer taxes (RETT) on house prices using a rich micro dataset on German properties covering the period from 2005 to 2018. We exploit a 2006 constitutional reform that allowed states to set their own RETT rates, leading to frequent increases in states’ tax rates in subsequent years. Our monthly event study estimates indicate a price response that strongly exceeds the change in the tax burden for single transactions. I.e., twelve months after a reform, a one percentage point increase in the tax rate reduces property prices by on average 3.5%. Effects are stronger for apartments and apartment buildings than for single family houses. We interpret these results in the context of a theoretical model that accounts for the effects of RETT on a property’s resale value. If a property is expected to be traded more frequently in the future, the decline in its price can exceed the in crease in the tax burden. Moreover, larger price effects can be explained by higher bargaining power of sellers.
    Keywords: Real estate transfer taxes, property taxes, housing market
    JEL: H22 H71 R32 R38
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Cong Peng
    Abstract: Traditional retail involves traffic both from warehouses to stores and from consumers to stores. E-commerce cuts intermediate traffic by delivering goods directly from the warehouses to the consumers. Although plenty of evidence has shown that vans that are servicing e-commerce are a growing contributor to traffic and congestion, consumers are also making less shopping trips using vehicles. This poses the question of whether e-commerce reduces traffic congestion. The paper exploits the exogenous shock of an influential online shopping retail discount event in China (similar to Cyber Monday), to investigate how the rapid growth of e-commerce affects urban traffic congestion. Portraying e-commerce as trade across cities, I specified a CES demand system with heterogeneous consumers to model consumption, vehicle demand and traffic congestion. I tracked hourly traffic congestion data in 94 Chinese cities in one week before and two weeks after the event. In the week after the event, intra-city traffic congestion dropped by 1.7% during peaks and 1% during non-peak hours. Using Baidu Index (similar to Google Trends) as a proxy for online shopping, I found online shopping increasing by about 1.6 times during the event. Based on the model, I find evidence for a 10% increase in online shopping causing a 1.4% reduction in traffic congestion, with the effect most salient from 9am to 11am and from 7pm to midnight. A welfare analysis conducted for Beijing suggests that the congestion relief effect has a monetary value of around 239 million dollars a year. The finding suggests that online shopping is more traffic-efficient than offline shopping, along with sizable knock-on welfare gains.
    Keywords: e-commerce, traffic congestion, heterogeneous consumers, shopping vehicle demand, air pollution
    JEL: R4 O3
    Date: 2019–08
  5. By: Andersen, Henrik Yde; Leth-Petersen, Søren
    Abstract: In this paper we examine whether changes in home values drive mortgage-based equity extraction. To do this we use longitudinal survey data with subjective information about current and expected future home values to calculate unanticipated home value changes. We link this information at the individual level to high quality administrative records containing information about mortgage borrowing as well as savings in various financial instruments. We find that the marginal propensity to increase mortgage debt is 2-5 percent of unanticipated home value gains. We find no adjustment to other components of the portfolio, and we find that mortgage extraction leads to an increase in spending. The effect is driven by young households with high loan-to-value ratios which is consistent with the effect being driven by collateral constraints. Further, we find that the effect is driven by home owners who actively take out a new mortgage. The price effect is magnified among FRM borrowers who have an incentive to refinance their loans to lock in a lower market rate. These results point to the importance of the mortgage market in transforming price increases into spending and suggest that monetary policy can play an important role in transforming housing wealth gains into spending by affecting interest rates on mortgage loans.
    Keywords: Analysis of survey and administrative data; House price expectations; Housing wealth effect; mortgage market
    JEL: D12 D14 E21 E52
    Date: 2019–08
  6. By: Jorge Diaz-Lanchas (European Commission - JRC); Raymond J.G.M. Florax (Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University & Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Peter Mulder (Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: The worldwide trend to decentralize the responsibilities and budgets of governments impacts local firm dynamics in various ways. We use the example of Spain to test empirically whether the decentralization of governance has been conducive to increased diversification and a more even city-size distribution in the Spanish urban system during a period of continuous reductions in transport costs. To this end we develop a bivariate probit regression framework to assess the probability that cities diversify or specialize over time, using a sample of 69 urban areas in Spain during the period 1995-2007. We exploit unique firm-level and time-varying transport-cost data to control for the role of a city’s market potential, city size, transport costs, labor-force skill composition, product standardization and historical patterns of specialization. We find a high probability that a city will diversify if it is the capital of a regional government or located in a relatively decentralized region, while the opposite is true for the probability that a city will specialize. Also, we find that a city's status as a regional capital reinforces the positive effect of a high (low) internal market potential on the probability of diversification (specialization). A high (low) external market potential only increases the probability that a city will become specialized (diversified) if it is a regional capital. We argue that the link between decentralization and specialization patterns in the urban system deserves more attention in the empirical literature on decentralization's impact on economic growth, income inequality and regional disparities.
    Keywords: Rhomolo, Region, Growth, Decentralization, urban diversity, specialization, generalized transport costs, Spain
    JEL: R12 R58 C35
    Date: 2019–08
  7. By: Tomoya Mori
    Abstract: Many large cities are found at locations with certain first nature advantages. Yet, those exogenous locational features may not be the most potent forces governing the spatial pattern of cities. In particular, population size, spacing and industrial composition of cities exhibit simple, persistent and monotonic relationships. Theories of economic agglomeration suggest that this regularity is a consequence of interactions between endogenous agglomeration and dispersion forces. This paper reviews the extant formal models that explain the spatial pattern together with the size distribution of cities, and discusses the remaining research questions to be answered in this literature. To obtain results about explicit spatial patterns of cities, a model needs to depart from the most popular two-region and systems-of-cities frameworks in urban and regional economics in which there is no variation in interregional distance. This is one of the major reasons that only few formal models have been proposed in this literature. To draw implications as much as possible from the extant theories, this review involves extensive discussions on the behavior of the many-region extension of these models. The mechanisms that link the spatial pattern of cities and the diversity in city sizes are also discussed in detail.
    Date: 2019–08
  8. By: Andersson, Martin (Department of Industrial Economics, Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH), Karlskrona, and CIRCLE, Lund University); Johansson, Börje (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS) & Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS)); Niedomysl, Thomas (Department of Human Geography, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper analyses city system dynamics, based on a theoretical framework relating interaction potentials to agglomeration economies and density externalities. It employs new historical time series data on population size of cities in Sweden over two centuries (1810-2010) and introduces two schematic growth factors: (i) the intra-city potential and (ii) the extra-city potential located in in rings encircling each city. The first factor is measured by each city’s population size, while the second is a vector of distance discounted population size for each of a city’s urban rings. In this way we can explain a city’s growth as a function of its interaction potential inside the city, s well as inside the first, second hand third ring. A robust finding is that cities with large ring potentials follow different development paths than those with small ring potentials. We also find clear evidence of structural change between the two centuries (1810-1910 and 1910-2010. In the first period, city growth is positively impacted by the size of the intra-city potential, whereas the same potential dampens or reduces the growth in the second period. Moreover, the Ring I and Ring II potentials tend to switch from having negative growth stimulation in the first period to having positive stimulation in the second period. The regressions are checked for robustness by yielding consistent results when growth is measured as relative as well as absolute change.
    Keywords: city systems; evolution; urban growth; size distribution; spatial interaction; spatial interdependence; city networks
    JEL: C21 L84 R11 R12 R30
    Date: 2019–05–01
  9. By: Evren Ceritoglu; Seyit Mumin Cilasun; Ufuk Demiroglu; Aytul Ganioglu
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is exuberance in regional house prices in Turkey. For this purpose, we analyze real hedonic house prices and price to rent ratios countrywide as well as for 26 geographic regions at the NUTS2 level from January 2010 to January 2019. We perform the right-tailed unit root testing procedures developed by Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips and Shi (2018) and use their real time date-stamping strategy to determine periods of explosiveness and implosion. Our empirical findings indicate that there were exuberance episodes in house prices in Turkey for multiple periods, where an important contributor to these dynamics was the largest housing market, Istanbul. We also detect exuberance in some other regions, particularly in the neighboring NUTS2 regions of Istanbul and in Izmir after around 2014. However, we find out that explosive price behavior turned into implosion in many regions starting from 2018.
    Keywords: Hedonic house prices, Price-to-rent ratio, Explosive price behavior, Right-tailed unit root tests
    JEL: C22 G12 R21
    Date: 2019
  10. By: Arduini, Tiziano; Bisin, Alberto; Ozgur, Onur; Patacchini, Eleonora
    Abstract: We study risky behavior of adolescents. Concentrating on smoking and alcohol use, we structurally estimate a dynamic social interaction model in the context of students' school networks included in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The model allows for forward-looking behavior of agents, addiction effects, and social interactions in the form of preferences for conformity in the social network. We find strong evidence for forward looking dynamics and addiction effects. We also find that social interactions in the estimated dynamic model are quantitatively large. A misspecified static model would fit data substantially worse, while producing a much smaller estimate of the social interaction effect. With the estimated dynamic model, a temporary shock to students' preferences in the 10th grade has effects on their behavior in grades 10, 11, 12, with estimated social multipliers 1.53, 1.03, and 0.76, respectively. The multiplier effect of a permanent shock is much larger, up to 3.7 in grade 12. Moreover, (semi-) elasticities of a permanent change in the availability of alcohol or cigarettes at home on child risky behavior implied by the dynamic equilibrium are 25%, 63%, and 79%, in grades 10, 11, 12, respectively.
    JEL: C18 C33 C62 C63 C73 I12
    Date: 2019–08
  11. By: Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Borrower-based measures introduced in 2015 by the Central Bank of Ireland placed a limit on the loan to income (LTI) and loan to value (LTV) ratio of newly originated mortgages in Ireland. These limits come with an important exception: a system of “allowances” for a percentage of each lender’s total annual loan volume to be issued above the stated LTI and LTV limits. In this Note we study the way in which these allowances are allocated, focusing on two dimensions. First, from a borrower composition viewpoint, we show that allowances for First Time Buyers (FTBs) typically go to borrowers who are at low to middle incomes, predominantly in Dublin and more likely to be single. Second, from a risk management perspective, we study banks’ choice of LTI and LTV levels within the allowance group.We show that borrowers with an LTI allowance are highly likely to have the maximum allowable LTV level, and vice versa, suggesting that a large proportion of borrowers are accessing the maximum available leverage under the regime. Finally, we show that, in line with rapid house price growth since 2015, the LTI and LTV levels of loans with allowances have grown in each year to 2018.
    Date: 2019–07
  12. By: Lindquist, Matthew; Zenou, Yves
    Abstract: In this article, we argue that social network analysis can be used in a meaningful way to help us understand more about the root causes of delinquent behavior and crime and also to provide practical guidance for the design of crime prevention policies.
    Keywords: Co-offending; crime; Criminal networks; key player; peer effects; Social Networks
    JEL: A14 K42 Z13
    Date: 2019–06
  13. By: Christoph Basten (University of Zurich); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))
    Abstract: We analyze how banks’ allocations of mortgage credit across regions change when an online platform enables them to offer to regions where they have no branches, staff or legacy. Unique data from an online platform with offers from different banks to each mortgage application yield three novel findings. First, banks offer more and cheaper credit to borrowers in less competitive offline markets. Second, banks offer more credit to more distant locations, where house prices appear less over-heated, and past price growth is less correlated with that in their existing portfolio. Third, over time offers become more automated, lowering operational costs.
    Keywords: Mortgage Lending, Spatial Competition, Credit Risk, Diversification, Automation of Banking, FinTech, Online Pricing
    JEL: G2 L1 R2
    Date: 2019–08
  14. By: Martin Guzi (Masaryk University); Peter Huber (Austrian Institute for Economic Research); Stepan Mikula (Masaryk University)
    Abstract: We analyze the long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland after World War~II on residential migration. This event involved expulsion of ethnic Germans and almost complete depopulation of an area of a country and its rapid resettlement by 2 million Czech inhabitants. Results based on nearest neighbor matching and regression discontinuity design show a higher population churn in resettled areas that continues today. The populations in resettled areas and in the remainder of the country share similar values and do not differ statistically in terms of their propensity to give donations, attend social events, and participate in voluntary work. However, we observe that resettled settlements have fewer local club memberships, lower turnout in municipal elections, and less frequently organized social events. This finding indicates substantially lower local social capital in the resettled settlements that is likely to have caused higher residential migration. This explanation is consistent with theoretical models of the impact of social capital on migration decisions.
    Keywords: Migration, Social Capital, Sudetenland
    JEL: N44 Z10 R23 J15
    Date: 2019–07–31
  15. By: Brian G. Knight; Nathan M. Schiff
    Abstract: College admissions in the U.S. is decentralized, with students applying separately to each school. This creates frictions in the college admissions process and, if substantial, might ultimately limit student choice. In this paper, we study the introduction of the Common Application (CA) platform, under which students submit a single application to all member schools, potentially reducing frictions and increasing student choice. We first document that joining the CA increases the number of applications received by schools, consistent with reduced frictions. Joining the CA also reduces the yield on accepted students, consistent with increased student choice, and institutions respond to the reduced yield by admitting more students. In line with these findings, we document that the CA has accelerated geographic integration: upon joining, schools attract more foreign students and more out-of-state students, especially from other states with significant CA membership, consistent with network effects. Finally, we find some evidence that joining the CA increases freshmen SAT scores. If so, and given that CA members tend to be more selective institutions, the CA has contributed to stratification, the widening gap between more selective and less selective schools.
    JEL: H0 I23
    Date: 2019–08
  16. By: Sandra Bestakova (Czech Technical University in Prague)
    Abstract: Prague has for a long time been struggling with the problem of constantly increasing housing prices and their lack. Offer available apartments is extremely low and is manifested by significant price growth and also the limited supply of apartments for sale and rent. One of the factors influencing the price of flats in Prague may be short-term rentals. Today there is an increasing number of flats in the total offer of short-term rentals and the number of hosts with more than one offer is also rising. Airbnb will deviate from its original idea of sharing "extra beds".
    Keywords: short-term rental; Prague; sharing economy; Airbnb
    JEL: R10 R21 R31
    Date: 2019–07
  17. By: Reuben Ellul; Jude Darmanin; Ian Borg (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper makes use of a novel dataset derived from mortgage contracts granted by the major lending institutions in Malta. This contains information about house prices and a number of important property characteristics. Together with geographic and sociodemographic variables, this information allows the computation of a range of hedonic house price indices for Malta for the period 2010-2017. In general we find that growth in house prices remained relatively muted over the period 2011-2014, ranging between 1.0% and 2.0%. House prices picked-up markedly after 2015, averaging between 4.5% and 7.5%. In particular, house price growth peaked in 2017, at between 10.1% and 11.0%. Although the general evolution of the hedonic house price indices calculated in this study are broadly similar to the indices computed by the contract-based index produced by the National Statistics Office and the advertised-based index produced by the Central Bank of Malta, there are some divergences. These differences can be attributed to changes in property characteristics.
    JEL: C4 E3 R3 R31
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Luca Corazzini (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Elena Meschi (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca); Caterina Pavese (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of attending early childcare on second generation immigrant children’s cognitive outcomes. Our analysis draws on administrative data on the entire population of students in fifth grade collected by the Italian Institute for the Evaluation of the Educational System (INVALSI) for school years 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 matched to unique administrative records on the early childcare public available slots at the municipal level. Our identification strategy exploits cross-sectional and time series variation in the provision of early childcare service across Italian municipalities as an instrument for individual early childcare attendance. Our results point out that the effect of early childcare attendance differs between native and immigrant children. Although we find no effects for Italian children, our estimates show a positive and significant effect on literacy test scores for immigrant children of low educated parents, which suggests that early childcare may be particularly relevant for immigrant children from a disadvantaged background.
    Keywords: Childcare, Cognitive skills, Immigrant children, IV
    JEL: J13 J15 H75 I20 I28
    Date: 2019
  19. By: Bradley Setzler; Felix Tintelnot
    Abstract: Governments go to great lengths to attract foreign multinational enterprises because these enterprises are thought to raise the wages paid to their employees (direct effects) and to improve outcomes at incumbent local firms (indirect effects). We construct the first U.S. employer-employee dataset with foreign ownership information from tax records to measure these direct and indirect effects. We find the average direct effect of a foreign multinational firm on its U.S. workers is a 7 percent increase in wages. This premium is larger for higher skilled workers and for the employees of firms from high GDP per capita countries. We leverage the past spatial clustering of foreign-owned firms by country of ownership to identify the indirect effects. An expansion in the foreign multinational share of commuting zone employment substantially increases the employment, value added, and—for higher earning workers—wages at local domestic-owned firms. Per job created by a foreign multinational, our estimates suggest annual gains of 16,000 USD to the aggregate wages of local incumbents, of which about two-thirds is due to indirect effects. We compare our findings to the value of subsidy deals received by foreign multinationals.
    JEL: F23 J3 R1
    Date: 2019–08
  20. By: Voigtländer, Michael; Schuster, Florian
    Abstract: Over the last years, prices for European office space have reached new peaks. This naturally provokes discussion about a possible overheating in the market. One approach to assess price development of real estate markets is the so-called "user cost approach". Typically, this approach is applied to housing markets, but it can also be applied to commercial markets. The model follows the idea of no-arbitrage. If one kind of tenure is economically more attractive than another, households or corporates will shift demand, so that both tenures - buying and renting - should equalise over time. Thus, major differences between buying and renting indicate a possible over- or undervaluation of properties. In this contribution, user costs for offices have been calculated for 18 European capitals. The results indicate that in most European office markets, further price appreciations are likely. In Paris, Helsinki, Prague, Berlin, Stockholm, Amsterdam, Oslo and Luxembourg in particular, huge gaps between prime rents and user costs indicate further price increases, whereas in Madrid, Lisbon, Rome, London and Budapest further price decreases seem plausible. However, these likely price decreases do not follow the typical pattern of a correction of a speculative bubble, but are more or less the result of falling prime rents that have not been fully captured in prices, yet. The user cost approach has some predictive power, but can only provide an initial pointer towards under- or overvaluations. For instance, structural breaks such as Brexit can change long-term expectations, which cannot be captured properly in a model. However, the approach appears valuable in providing a first assessment. In future, the German Economic Institute will do further research on this topic in order to strengthen its understanding of commercial property markets.
    JEL: G12 O52 R33
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Arlette Beltrán (Universidad del Pacifico, Peru); Alberto Chong (Department of Economics, Georgia State University, USA); Mariano Montoya (Universidad del Pacifico, Peru)
    Abstract: We study if urban class segregation destroys social capital in Latin America using experimental data that are representative for six Latin American cities. In particular, we focus on whether belonging to upper class neighborhoods impacts reciprocity in a standard trust game. While our overall results confirm a negative association between these two variables, we also find that trusting behavior can help counteract the negative impact of class.
    Date: 2019–08
  22. By: Philippe Poinsot (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Jean-François Ruault (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)
    Abstract: Territories (regions, cities, districts…) are considered today to play an important role in economic activities and growth. There is therefore an increasing need for local-level tools to support effective territorial policies. Economic-base theory is a conventional theoretical framework used to describe the main short-term factors of economic development in highly-open economies. While in the mainstream application of this theory only export activities are considered to be basic, in that they generate external income, the literature highlights the importance of day-today mobility, the so-called "residential" economy and the "in-place" or "presential" economy, for the development of these kind of economies. This raises questions about two assumptions of traditional economic-base theory: that individuals may use a non-marginal fraction of their income to buy consumer goods and services outside their place of residence; and that the income of an area's residents may differ from income produced in that area. This paper seeks to explore the theoretical implications of these two fundamental characteristics of highly-open economies. 2
    Keywords: Regional Development,Economic-Base Theory,Residential Economy,Tourism
    Date: 2019–08–22
  23. By: Leah Platt Boustan; Robert A. Margo; Matthew M. Miller; James M. Reeves; Justin P. Steil
    Abstract: The condominium structure, which facilitates ownership of units in multi-family buildings, was only introduced to the US during the 1960s. We ask whether the subsequent development of condominiums encouraged high-income households to move to central cities. Although we document a strong positive correlation between condominium density and resident income, this association is entirely driven by endogenous development of condos in areas otherwise attractive to high-income households. When we instrument for condo density using the passage of municipal regulations limiting condo conversions, we find little association between condo development and resident income, education or race.
    JEL: N92 R28 R31
    Date: 2019–08
  24. By: Bau, Natalie
    Abstract: The quality of the match between students and schools affects learning but little is known about the magnitude of these effects or how they respond to changes in market structure. I develop a quantitative equilibrium model of school competition with horizontal competition in match quality. I estimate the model using data from Pakistan, a country with high private enrollment, and (1) quantify the importance of good matches, (2) show that profit-maximizing private schools' choices of quality advantage wealthier students, increasing inequality and reducing welfare and learning, and (3) provide intuition for when interventions in the market are valuable. I find that match matters: moving a student from her worst to best match school doubles yearly average test score gains. Setting match-specific quality socially optimally in private schools would greatly reduce inequality in learning between rich and poor students while increasing learning and welfare. These positive effects are amplified when students' enrollment decisions are more responsive to quality.
    Keywords: horizontal quality in education; school competition; structural models of education markets
    JEL: I2 L1 O1
    Date: 2019–08
  25. By: Klaesson, Johan (Centre of Entrepreneurship and Spatial Economics (CEnSE) at Jönköping International Business School (JIBS) & Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS)); Johansson, Börje (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS) & Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS))
    Abstract: During the period 2007-2016 in Sweden we can observe how the share of business (producer) services gradually increases as an aggregate phenomenon. The service categories are partitioned into ordinary (OBS), knowledge-intensive (KIBS), and very knowledge-intensive business services (VKIBS). The growth is faster in local and regional economies that have large demand potentials. Other sectors grow faster when located in places where the business-service supply potential is larger. We outline a theoretical framework where service suppliers locate their capacity in response to the size of the service-demand potential, whereas other sectors of the economy, locate and expand in response to the service-supply potentials, for each of the three service categories OBS-services, KIBS-services and VKIBS-services. These model alternatives are assessed in a series of dynamic econometric exercises. A major assumption is that business-service firms operate in a context of monopolistic competition, which means that when the capacity to supply and deliver business services increases, then the number of service varieties also increases, and thus adds to the multiplicity of varieties in local economies (municipalities) that have a large demand potential. In the model framework the service suppliers are selling innovation-relevant information to customer firms in a region, and thereby also unintentionally spread information and knowledge among firms in the region. In this way, business-service suppliers become knowledge providers and important actors in the relevant regional innovation system.
    Keywords: Random choice; business services; demand and supply potentials; co-evolution
    JEL: C23 L84 R11 R12 R30
    Date: 2019–06–01
  26. By: Edquist, Harald; Goodridge, Peter; Haskel, Jonathan
    Abstract: Did the huge investment in telecommunications networks in the 1990s affect subsequent total factor productivity? Using data from 13 European countries and the US, 1995-2013, we document the substan- tial growth and then slowdown in "telecommunications" capital and ask if this is related to the growth and slowdown in TFP. We explore this by disaggregating ICT equipment investment into "IT" and "CT" equipment investment. We test for distinct effects from each using a simple framework where CT cap- ital has network externalities and so potentially impacts TFP, with the marginal impact of CT capital growth being higher in countries spending more on renting CT capital. We find: a) evidence of a robust correlation between (lagged) growth in (rental share-weighted) CT capital services and TFP growth; b) the estimated externality from CT capital potentially explains around 30-40% of TFP growth in North European countries, 60% in Scandinavia and around 90% in the US; c) CT capital has a social return around five times its private return; and d) a slowdown in the accumulation of CT capital accounts for just over half of the post-2003 TFP slowdown in the US but only one-tenth of the TFP slowdown in the EU
    Date: 2019–08
  27. By: Sobhi, Salma; Ali, Maged A.; Abdelkader, Mohamed F.
    Abstract: With the growing need for smart services and internet of things (IoT) devices in smart cities, the cloud paradigm might not be able to accommodate the increasing data traffic and the various latencyaware applications. Meanwhile, as smart cities grow bigger and wider, finding a communication protocol that fully supports the nature of smart cities application becomes essential, with the need for a secure and privacy protecting paradigm is more than ever. In this paper, we investigate the potential of combining the recently introduced fog computing and loRaWAN communication standard to attain more sustainable smart cities. We present a case study for using the proposed network architecture for smart water distribution networks.
    Keywords: Fog-computing,Smart-Cities,LoRaWAN,IoT,Water distribution networks.
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Riley K. Acton; Scott A. Imberman; Michael F. Lovenheim
    Abstract: Social programs and mandates are usually studied in isolation, but interaction effects could create spillovers to other public goods. We examine how health insurance coverage affects the education of students with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in the context of state-mandated private therapy coverage. Since Medicaid benefits under the mandate were far weaker than under private insurance, we proxy for Medicaid ineligibility and estimate effects via triple-differences. While we find little change in ASD identification, the mandate crowds-out special education supports for students with ASD by shifting students to less restrictive environments and reducing the use of ASD specialized teacher consultants. A lack of short-run impact on achievement supports our interpretation of the service reductions as crowd-out and indicates that the shift does not academically harm students with ASD.
    JEL: H41 I13 I21
    Date: 2019–07
  29. By: Rossello, Giulia (UNU-MERIT); Cowan, Robin (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This paper studies racial and gender homophily in student supervision relationships in a context of social transformations, South Africa academia. We develop a technique to separate choice homophily from that induced by the system. Comprising two permutation tests repeated at two levels of aggregation, system and departments. We find clear evidence of homophily in student supervision, along racial lines in particular. Roughly half of the observed homophily is induced by the departments composition and stays constant over time. Overall, choice homophily has similar magnitude along racial and gender dimensions. Further, we ask where choice homophily originates in the demographic groups of students and professors. We find that white (male) students have high tendency to form same-type relations, while among professors it is black (female) who display the higher frequency. Group differences show that choice homophily is likely to originate from students in the former majority.
    Keywords: Academia, South Africa, Student supervision, Network Analysis, Induced homophily, Choice homophily, Segregation, Assortativity mixing, Permutation test, Social Transformations, Social Change, System of Organisations, Institutional constraints, Gender ties, Racial ties, University System, emerging countries, Racial and Gender Homophily
    JEL: A14 D71 D85 I23 I24 J15 J16
    Date: 2019–07–01
  30. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Nitsch, Volker; Wendland, Nicolai
    Abstract: For a complete cost-benefit analysis of durable infrastructures, it is important to understand how the value of non-market goods such as transit time and environmental quality changes as incomes rise in the long-run. We use difference-in-differences and spatial differencing to estimate the land price capitalization effects of metro rail in Berlin, Germany today and a century ago. Over this period, the negative effect of rail noise tripled in percentage terms. Our results imply long-run income elasticities of the value of noise reduction and transport access of 2.2 and 1.4, substantially exceeding cross-sectional contingent valuation estimates.
    Keywords: accessibility; Difference-in-Differences; income elasticity; land price; noise; Spatial differencing
    JEL: N73 N74 R12 R14 R41
    Date: 2019–06
  31. By: Enrietti, Aldo; Geuna, Aldo; Nava, Consuelo R.; Patrucco, Pier Paolo (University of Turin)
    Abstract: By discussing the relation between the traditional Marshallian/Jacobian approach and Klepper’s concept of spinoffs and their role, this paper tries to explain the early genesis and later evolution of the Italian automotive industry, based on the for mation of the Torino’s car cluster from the late nineteenth century. Historical analysis and econometric models are integrated to identify key factors that enabled the creation and success of the automotive industry in Turin. Specifically, we investigate agglomeration economies, the role of spinoffs and institutional factors such as the level and importance of local education. Based on original archival research, we built a new database of all Italian automobile companies. Replication of Klepper’s (2007) and Boschma and Wenting’s (2007) models shows no particular influence of the Turin cluster and no early entry advantages. Our model, which integrates and extends previous contributions, confirms the existence of a spinoffs effect, and in particular the positive effect of inherited technical skills embedded in pilots. We find support also, for positive agglomeration effects at the regional level and inter industry externalities from aeronautics, a metropolitan cluster effect and the significance of metropolitan education.
    Date: 2019–04
  32. By: Balagtas, Joseph V.; He, Xiaoyang
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2019–06–25
  33. By: Araya, Federico; Le Barbanchon, Thomas; Ubfal, Diego
    Abstract: We provide the first estimates of the effects of working while in school that use controlled random variation in job offers. We leverage a Uruguayan program offering 9-to-12-month part-time employment in state-owned companies by lottery to enrolled students. Using social security data matched to the universe of over 120,000 applicants, we estimate a 9% increase in earnings over the four post-program years for youth completing a program job. We find large positive effects on school enrollment during the program year, consistent with the conditionality of the program and smaller effects in the post-program years. Our time-use survey indicates that students substitute leisure and household chores with work, without significant reductions in studying time. Finally, a decomposition of the earnings effect shows that accumulation of work experience can explain the majority of the increase in earnings.
    Keywords: randomized lottery; student employment
    JEL: I21 I28 J08 J22 J24
    Date: 2019–06
  34. By: Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, USA); Yasin Civelek (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, USA)
    Abstract: Local borrowing is one of the fundamental pill5rs of fiscally decentralized systems—together with the assignment of functional expenditure responsibilities, revenue assignments, and transfers. However, undisciplined use of local debt can lead to disruptions in public service delivery at the subnational level and, more significantly, have important negative externality effects on the macroeconomic stability of the entire country. This paper surveys the actual practice with debt governance of Non-Asian Emerging Economies (NAEE) for the last several decades with the main objective of extracting lessons (both positive and negative) for the development of best practice around the world.
    Date: 2019–08
  35. By: Rudolf, Katrin
    Keywords: Resource/ Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–06–25
  36. By: Santiago Pérez
    Abstract: I study the selection and economic outcomes of Italians in Argentina and the US, the two largest destinations during the age of mass migration. Prior cross-sectional work finds that Italians had faster assimilation in Argentina, but it is inconclusive on whether this was due to differences in selection or host-country conditions. I assemble data following Italians from passenger lists to censuses, enabling me to compare migrants with similar pre-migration characteristics. Italians had better economic outcomes in Argentina, and this advantage was unlikely to be due to selection. Migration path dependence can rationalize these differences in an era of open borders.
    JEL: J15 J61 N30 N31 N36
    Date: 2019–07
  37. By: Kumo, Kazuhiro
    Abstract: Discourses over interregional migration at the time of the Soviet era have shown that the government control on population redistribution was effective at the early Soviet period, but in the late Soviet era the effects of incentive mechanisms including national investment became limited. This certainly can be expectable, but it is also undeniable that such assertion was inconsistent with the phenomenon. Indeed the population influx was continuously seen in Far East or Extreme North regions even at the very end of the Soviet period, suggesting the possibility of effective governmental management on geographical redistribution of population. This paper confirmed the effectiveness of the governmental control on population migration in the late Soviet era, using newly available data. It was suggested that the analytical unit utilized in previous studies (Economic Regions or cities) may involve problems, so that the effect of various factors could not be accurately grasped. This shows the necessity of further verification of the results that have been obtained during the Soviet era.
    Keywords: Russia, Interregional Migration, Soviet Union, Origin-to-Destination Matrix
    Date: 2019–08
  38. By: Baustert, Paul; Gutiérrez, Tomás Navarrete; Gibon, Thomas; Chion, Laurent; Ma, Tai Yu; Mariante, Gabriel Leite; Klein, Sylvain; Gerber, Philippe; Benetto, Enrico
    Abstract: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2010 the transport sector was responsible for 23% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions (6.7 GtCO2) worldwide. Policy makers in Luxembourg are well-aware of the challenges and are setting ambitious objectives at country level for the mid and long term. However, a framework to assess environmental impacts from a life cycle perspective on the scale of transport policy scenarios, rather than individual vehicles, is lacking. We present a novel framework linking activity-based modeling with life cycle assessment (LCA) and a proof-of-concept case study for the French cross-border commuters working in Luxembourg. Our framework allows for the evaluation of specific policies formulated on the trip level as well as aggregated evaluation of environmental impacts from a life cycle perspective. The results of our proof-of-concept-based case study suggest that only a combination of: (1) policy measures improving the speed and coverage of the public transport system; (2) policy measures fostering electric mobility; and (3) external factors such as de-carbonizing the electricity mix will allow to counteract the expected increase in impacts due to the increase of mobility needs of the growing commuting population in the long term.
    Keywords: Activity-based modeling; Life cycle assessment; Policy analysis; Sustainable mobility
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–07–27
  39. By: Yu, Wenjing; Yao, Yansang
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2019–06–25
  40. By: Kiessling, Lukas (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Pinger, Pia (University of Cologne); Seegers, Philipp K. (Maastricht University); Bergerhoff, Jan (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that closely resembles actual wage differences, prevails across subgroups, and along the entire distribution. To understand the underlying causes and determinants, we relate expected wages to sorting into majors, industries, and occupations, child-rearing plans, perceived and actual ability, personality, perceived discrimination, and negotiation styles. Our findings indicate that sorting and negotiation styles affect the gender gap in wage expectations much more than prospective child-related labor force interruptions. Given the importance of wage expectations for labor market decisions, household bargaining, and wage setting, our results provide an explanation for persistent gender inequalities.
    Keywords: subjective wage expectations, gender gap, negotiation styles
    Date: 2019–08
  41. By: Tirkaso, Wondmagegn T.; Hailu, Atakelty G.
    Keywords: Production Economics
    Date: 2019–06–25

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