nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒08‒26
fifty-four papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. What drives the location choice of new manufacturing plants in Germany? By Krenz, Astrid
  2. Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice By Peter Bergman; Raj Chetty; Stefanie DeLuca; Nathaniel Hendren; Lawrence F. Katz; Christopher Palmer
  3. Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium By Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Schaal, Edouard
  4. The Welfare Costs of Tiebout Sorting with True Public Goods By Kuhlmey, Florian; Hintermann, Beat
  5. Sharing a Government By Ventura, Jaume
  6. Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution is Rarely Considered When Planning Bicycle Routes but It Should Be By Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Luo, Ji
  7. District heating networks: enhancement of the efficiency By Ugis Sarma; Girts Karnitis; Janis Zuters; Edvins Karnitis
  8. Cities and space: Common power laws and spatial fractal structures By Tomoya Mori; Tony E. Smith; Wen-Tai Hsu
  9. Firm organization with multiple establishments By Antoni, Manfred; Gumpert, Anna; Steimer, Henrike
  10. The inverted U-shaped effect of urban hotspots spatial compactness on urban economic growth By Weipan Xu; Haohui'Caron' Chen; Enrique Frias-Martinez; Manuel Cebrian; Xun Li
  11. Secondary School Enrolment and Teenage Childbearing: Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities By Koppensteiner, Martin Foureaux; Matheson, Jesse
  12. Generating urban morphologies at large scales By Juste Raimbault; Julien Perret
  13. Daily mobility and the carbon constraint. What policies should be favored? By Charles Raux; Lény Grassot; Eric Charmes; Elise Nimal; Marie Sévenet
  14. Ethnic networks can foster the economic integration of refugees By Martén, Linna; Hainmueller, Jens; Hangartner, Dominik
  15. Dealing with Endogenous Shocks in Dynamic Friendship Network By Maria Marchenko
  16. Debt shift, financial development and income inequality By Dirk Bezemer; Anna Samarina
  17. The Economic Costs of Financial Distress By Custodio, Claudia; Ferreira, Miguel; Garcia-Appendini, Emilia
  18. Endogenous Shocks in Social Networks: Exam Failures and Friends' Future Performance By Maria Marchenko
  19. A San Francisco Case Study: What Bicycle Investments Have the Greatest Influence on Where People Ride? By Fitch, Dillon; Thigpen, Calvin; Cruz, Antonio; Handy, Susan
  20. Direct and Network Effects of Idiosyncratic TFP Shocks By Kristina Barauskaite; Anh D. M. Nguyen
  21. Ties By Federico Revelli; Tsung-Sheng Tsai
  22. Competition, Land Prices, and City Size By Sergey Kichko
  23. Home and School in the Development of Children By Francesco Agostinelli; Morteza Saharkhiz; Matthew Wiswall
  24. Diversifying in green technologies in European regions: does political support matter? By Artur Santoalha; Ron Boschma
  25. Are Business Start-Ups Liquidity Constrained? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Allocation of Housing Wealth in East Germany By Tobias Fuchs; Georg Gebhardt
  26. Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach By Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen T.; Simsek, Alp
  27. Enterprise Zones, Poverty, and Labor Market Outcomes: Resolving Conflicting Evidence By David Neumark; Timothy Young
  28. State mandates on renewable heating technologies and the housing market By Germeshausen, Robert; von Graevenitz, Kathrine
  29. Price-Setting Behavior in a Tourism Sharing Economy Accommodation Market: A Hedonic Price Analysis of AirBnB Hosts in the Caribbean By Lorde, Troy; Jacob, Jadon; Weekes, Quinn
  30. Are Local Minimum Wages Too High? Working Paper #102-19 By Nadler, Carl; Allegretto, Sylvia; Godoey, Anna; Reich, Michael
  31. The future of road transport By ALONSO RAPOSO Maria; CIUFFO Biagio; ARDENTE Fulvio; AURAMBOUT Jean Philippe; Gianmarco BALDINI; Robert BRAUN; Panayotis CHRISTIDIS; Aris Christodoulou; Amandine DUBOZ; Sofia FELICI; Jaime FERRAGUT; Aliki GEORGAKAKI; Konstantinos GKOUMAS; Monica GROSSO; Maria IGLESIAS; Andreea JULEA; Jette KRAUSE; Bertin MARTENS; Fabrice MATHIEUX; Gerhard MENZEL; Silvia MONDELLO; Elena NAVAJAS; Ferenc PEKAR; Ioan RAILEANU; Harald SCHOLZ; Marie TAMBA; Anastasios TSAKALIDIS; Mitchell VAN BALEN; Ine VANDECASTEELE
  32. USDA School Meal Programs: How and Why the Cost of Food Purchases Varies Across Locales By Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne; Peo, Audrey
  33. The End of the American Dream? Inequality and Segregation in US Cities By Alessandra Fogli; Veronica Guerrieri
  34. Conveyance and the moderating effect of envy on homeowners' choice of appliances By Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne; Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte; Tu, Gengyang
  35. Credit Building or Credit Crumbling? A Credit Builder Loan's Effects on Consumer Behavior, Credit Scores and Their Predictive Power By Burke, Jeremy; Jamison, Julian C.; Karlan, Dean S.; Mihaly, Kata; Zinman, Jonathan
  36. Spatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China By Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
  37. Mergers on Networks By Dubovik, Andrei
  38. SNAP as housing assistance: Using a fuzzy regression kink design to examine the SNAP excess shelter deduction and housing-related financial stress By Ismail, Mehreen; Wilde, Parke E.
  39. Collaborative knowledge creation: Evidence from Japanese patent data By Tomoya Mori; Shosei Sakaguchi
  40. Mobility Data Sharing: Challenges and Policy Recommendations By D'Agostino, Mollie; Pellaton, Paige; Brown, Austin
  41. Devotion and Development: Religiosity, Education, and Economic Progress in 19th-Century France By Squicciarini, Mara
  42. Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area By Marc-Olivier Pepin; Georges A. Tanguay
  43. Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where? By Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
  44. A Bayesian Spatial Autoregressive Logit Model With An Empirical Application to European Regional FDI Flows By Tamás Krisztin; Philipp Piribauer
  45. Competition and Pass-Through: Evidence from Isolated Markets By Genakos, Christos D.; Pagliero, Mario
  46. Promoting Child Development in a Universal Preschool System: A Field Experiment By Mari Rege; Ingunn Størksen; Ingeborg F. Solli; Ariel Kalil; Megan McClelland; Dieuwer ten Braak; Ragnhild Lenes; Svanaug Lunde; Svanhild Breive; Martin Carlsen; Ingvald Erfjord; Per S. Hundeland
  47. Does Locked Up Mean Locked Out? The Effects of the Anti-Drug Act of 1986 on Black Male Students’ College Enrollment. Working Paper #101-19 By Britton, Tolani
  48. Influential factors of initiating open innovation collaboration between universities and SMEs: Systematic Literature Review By Hezam Haidar; Karine Evrard Samuel; Jean-François Boujut
  49. Immigration and the Evolution of Local Cultural Norms By Schmitz, Sophia; Weinhardt, Felix
  50. Dynamic structure - Dynamic results? Re-estimating profit shifting with historical ownership data By Grosskurth, Philipp
  51. Robots at Work: Automatable and Non Automatable Jobs By Josten, Cecily; Lordan, Grace
  52. Diffusion of Gender Norms: Evidence from Stalin's Ethnic Deportations By Jarotschkin, Alexandra; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  53. Predicting credit default probabilities using machine learning techniques in the face of unequal class distributions By Anna Stelzer
  54. Tenure Choice, Portfolio Structure and Long-Term Care - Optimal Risk Management in Retirement By Hans Fehr; Maurice Hofmann

  1. By: Krenz, Astrid
    Abstract: About 30 years after German reunification a persistent gap in different firm performance measures exists between East and West Germany. In this paper I focus on the differences in new German manufacturing plants' location choices across the German district-free cities and districts and investigate its regional determinants. For that purpose, I construct a novel, rich regional- and firm-level dataset based on the Official Firm Statistics from the German Federal Statistical Office and the Offices of the Laender. The analysis provides first time evidence how in particular the location decision of firms in the German economy is influenced by regional road infrastructure as well as regional structural funding. The effects are economically important and significant. The results reveal that a 10 percent increase in firm agglomeration increases the odds of a new plant to locate in the region by 12 percent. A 10 percent decrease of travel time on roads increases the odds of a plant to locate by 4 percent in overall Germany, by 7.6 percent among East German regions and by 26.5 percent in particular for large plants in the East German regions. A 10 percent larger population increases the odds to locate by 8.7 percent. A 10 percent increase in regional structural funding for infrastructure purposes increases the odds to locate in a region in East Germany by 8.3 percent in particular for large plants. Policy implications emerge that address in particular the improvement of infrastructure and support to reap off benefits that arise from agglomeration externalities.
    Keywords: firm location choice,regional road infrastructure,Germany,agglomeration economies,regional structural funding,East-West gap,conditional logit,nested logit
    JEL: D22 L25 R11 R12
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Peter Bergman; Raj Chetty; Stefanie DeLuca; Nathaniel Hendren; Lawrence F. Katz; Christopher Palmer
    Abstract: Low-income families in the United States tend to live in neighborhoods that offer limited opportunities for upward income mobility. One potential explanation for this pattern is that families prefer such neighborhoods for other reasons, such as affordability or proximity to family and jobs. An alternative explanation is that they do not move to high-opportunity areas because of barriers that prevent them from making such moves. We test between these two explanations using a randomized controlled trial with housing voucher recipients in Seattle and King County. We provided services to reduce barriers to moving to high-upward-mobility neighborhoods: customized search assistance, landlord engagement, and short-term financial assistance. The intervention increased the fraction of families who moved to high-upward-mobility areas from 14% in the control group to 54% in the treatment group. Families induced to move to higher opportunity areas by the treatment do not make sacrifices on other dimensions of neighborhood quality and report much higher levels of neighborhood satisfaction. These findings imply that most low-income families do not have a strong preference to stay in low-opportunity areas; instead, barriers in the housing search process are a central driver of residential segregation by income. Interviews with families reveal that the capacity to address each family's needs in a specific manner – from emotional support to brokering with landlords to financial assistance – was critical to the program's success. Using quasi-experimental analyses and comparisons to other studies, we show that more standardized policies – increasing voucher payment standards in high-opportunity areas or informational interventions – have much smaller impacts. We conclude that redesigning affordable housing policies to provide customized assistance in housing search could reduce residential segregation and increase upward mobility substantially.
    JEL: H0 J0 R0
    Date: 2019–08
  3. By: Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Schaal, Edouard
    Abstract: We study optimal transport networks in spatial equilibrium. We develop a framework consisting of a neoclassical trade model with labor mobility in which locations are arranged on a graph. Goods must be shipped through linked locations, and transport costs depend on congestion and on the infrastructure in each link, giving rise to an optimal transport problem in general equilibrium. The optimal transport network is the solution to a social planner's problem of building infrastructure in each link. We provide conditions such that this problem is globally convex, guaranteeing its numerical tractability. We also study cases with increasing returns to transport technologies in which global convexity fails. We apply the framework to assess optimal investments and inefficiencies in observed road networks in European countries.
    JEL: F11 O18 R13
    Date: 2019–07
  4. By: Kuhlmey, Florian (University of Basel); Hintermann, Beat (University of Basel)
    Abstract: We develop a model of Tiebout sorting based on decentralized income taxation, which allows for spillovers and imperfect rivalry in consumption of the publicly provided good. We identify three sources of welfare loss from decentralization: Imperfect redistribution, inter-jurisdictional free-riding, and inecient residential choice. Whereas the welfare loss from imperfect redistribution decreases and that from free-riding rises unambiguously as the publicly provided good becomes more pure, the welfare loss from the inecient residential choice depends non-monotonically on spillovers and rivalry. The equilibrium can be characterized by relative crowding of either the rich or the poor municipality. Our results imply that the characteristics of the publicly provided good are an important determinant for the welfare costs of decentralization.
    Keywords: Public goods; Tiebout; local income taxation; fiscal federalism; decentralization; free-riding
    JEL: H21 H23 H41 H77 R13 R23 R50 Q58
    Date: 2018–12–06
  5. By: Ventura, Jaume
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple theoretical framework to study a set of regions, each with its own regional government, who share a union or central government. These governments must decide whether to implement or discard a large number of projects that produce local benefits for the region that implements them, and externalities for the rest of the regions. Conflict or disagreement arises since different regions value projects differently. The classic assignment problem consists of deciding who decides these projects, either the union or the regional governments. It is well known that regional governments are insensitive to externalities. The key observation here is that the union government is insensitive to local beneÃ?ts. Thus, each government maximizes only a piece of the value of projects, and disregards the other one. This observations leads to simple and clear rules for solving the assignment problem.
    Keywords: centralization and decentralization; European integration; externalities; Fiscal Federalism; Public Goods
    JEL: D72 D79 F15 F55 H77
    Date: 2019–07
  6. By: Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Luo, Ji
    Abstract: Local, regional, and state agencies in California are making efforts to increase bicycle infrastructure and ridership. In most areas, bicycle routes are a subset of vehicle routes and new bicycle infrastructure is created by adding bicycle lane(s) to existing roadways. The planning process for identifying bicycle routes typically considers available right-of-way, existing roadway infrastructure (e.g., presence of bridges, number of intersections), vehicular traffic volume, safety concerns, and built environment factors (e.g., attractive land uses such as shopping districts, scenic views), among other factors. However, exposure to traffic-related air pollution is rarely considered in this process. This oversight can have negative impacts on bicyclists given they are directly exposed to vehicular exhaust and experience an increased breathing rate during biking. Exposure to traffic-related air pollution has been proven to contribute to a wide range of health problems such as lung and heart diseases. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Air pollution, Air quality, Bikeways, City planning, Cyclists, Highway traffic, Public health
    Date: 2017–11–01
  7. By: Ugis Sarma (Riga Technical University); Girts Karnitis (LU - University of Latvia); Janis Zuters (LU - University of Latvia); Edvins Karnitis (LU - University of Latvia)
    Abstract: During the decades the district heating's (DH) advantages (more cost-efficient heat generation and reduced air pollution) overcompensated the additional costs of transmission and distribution of the centrally produced thermal energy to consumers. Rapid increase in the efficiency of low-power heaters, development of separated low heat density areas in cities reduce the competitiveness of the large centralized DH systems in comparison with the distributed cluster-size networks and even local heating. Reduction of transmission costs, enhancement of the network efficiency by optimization of the design of the DH networks become a critical issue. The methodology for determination of the key drivers of the cost-efficiency of the DH networks to implement the most efficient (cost-minimal) thermal energy transmission was developed in this study. An inductive benchmarking modelling was applied; the general causal regularity is based on the observations of specific cases, thus determining the relationships between the network's design and thermal indicators as predictors and transmission costs as the target variable. The key drivers of the network efficiency were disclosed-the network length and the largest inner diameter of the pipes. The methodology is applicable for use by municipalities and heat providers for the heating planning of the new housing developments as well as renovation and/or expansion of the existing DH networks.
    Keywords: district heating,network design,data mining,benchmarking methodologies
    Date: 2019–09–30
  8. By: Tomoya Mori; Tony E. Smith; Wen-Tai Hsu
    Abstract: City size distributions are known to be well approximated by power laws across a wide range of countries. But such distributions are also meaningful at other spatial scales, such as within certain regions of a country. Using data from China, France, Germany, India, Japan, and the US, we first document that large cities are significantly more spaced out than would be expected by chance alone. We next construct spatial hierarchies for countries by first partitioning geographic space using a given number of their largest cities as cell centers, and then continuing this partitioning procedure within each cell recursively. We find that city size distributions in different parts of these spatial hierarchies exhibit power laws that are again far more similar than would be expected by chance alone -- suggesting the existence of a spatial fractal structure.
    Date: 2019–07
  9. By: Antoni, Manfred; Gumpert, Anna; Steimer, Henrike
    Abstract: How do geographic frictions affect firm organization? We show theoretically and empirically that geographic frictions increase the use of middle managers in multi-establishment firms. In our model, we assume that a CEO's time is a resource in limited supply, shared across headquarters and establishments. Geographic frictions increase the costs of accessing the CEO. Hiring middle managers at one establishment substitutes for CEO time, which is reallocated across all establishments. Consequently, geographic frictions between the headquarters and one establishment affect the organization of all establishments of a firm. Our model is consistent with novel facts about multi-establishment firm organization that we document using administrative data from Germany. We exploit the opening of high-speed train routes to show that not only the establishments directly affected by faster travel times but also the other establishments of the firm adjust their organization. Our findings imply that local conditions propagate across space through firm organization.
    Keywords: firm organization; Geography; knowledge hierarchy; multi-establishment firm
    JEL: D21 D22 D24
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Weipan Xu; Haohui'Caron' Chen; Enrique Frias-Martinez; Manuel Cebrian; Xun Li
    Abstract: The compact city, as a sustainable concept, is intended to augment the efficiency of urban function. However, previous studies have concentrated more on morphology than on structure. The present study focuses on urban structural elements, i.e., urban hotspots consisting of high-density and high-intensity socioeconomic zones, and explores the economic performance associated with their spatial structure. We use nighttime luminosity (NTL) data and the Loubar method to identify and extract the hotspot and ultimately draw two conclusions. First, with population increasing, the hotspot number scales sublinearly with an exponent of approximately 0.50~0.55, regardless of the location in China, the EU or the US, while the intersect values are totally different, which is mainly due to different economic developmental level. Secondly, we demonstrate that the compactness of hotspots imposes an inverted U-shaped influence on economic growth, which implies that an optimal compactness coefficient does exist. These findings are helpful for urban planning.
    Date: 2019–08
  11. By: Koppensteiner, Martin Foureaux (University of Surrey); Matheson, Jesse (University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: This article investigates whether increasing secondary education opportunities influences childbearing among young women in Brazil. We examine a novel dataset reflecting the vast expansion of secondary education in Brazil between 1997 and 2009 and exploit variation in the introduction of schools across 4,884 municipalities to instrument for school enrolment. Our most conservative estimate suggests that for every 9.7 students enrolled there is one fewer teenage births. These findings are robust to a number of specifications and sensitivity tests. Our estimates imply that Brazil's secondary school expansion accounts for 34% of the substantial decline in teenage childbearing observed over the same period. We further look at heterogeneous effects across a number of municipal characteristics and discuss what these results suggest about the mechanisms underlying the school-childbearing relationship.
    Keywords: secondary education, teenage childbearing, Brazil
    JEL: I20 J13
    Date: 2019–07
  12. By: Juste Raimbault (ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - X - École polytechnique - Institut Curie - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL - UCL - University College of London [London], GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Perret (COGIT, cartographie et géomatique - LaSTIG - Laboratoire des Sciences et Technologies de l'Information Géographique - IGN - Institut National de l'Information Géographique et Forestière [IGN])
    Abstract: At large scales, typologies of urban form and corresponding generating processes remain an open question with important implications regarding urban planning policies and sustainability. We propose in this paper to generate urban configurations at large scales, typically of districts, with morphogene-sis models, and compare these to real configurations according to morphological indicators. Real values are computed on a large sample of districts taken in European urban areas. We calibrate each model and show their complementarity to approach the variety of real urban configurations, paving the way to multi-model approaches of urban morphogenesis.
    Date: 2019–07–29
  13. By: Charles Raux (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lény Grassot (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eric Charmes (EVS - Environnement Ville Société - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées); Elise Nimal (EIFER - European Institute For Energy Research - TH - Universität Karlsruhe - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF); Marie Sévenet (EIFER - European Institute For Energy Research - TH - Universität Karlsruhe - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF)
    Abstract: The French National Carbon Strategy (SNBC) aims at reducing the CO2 emissions of the transport sector by 30% in 2030, when compared with 2013, and by 70% in 2050. This paper analyses the room for manoeuvre regarding daily mobility in order to contribute to this aim. The framework is a "reasonable" world, where local governments might bring pressure on residential location choices of new anticipated populations on the one hand, and mobility choices by favoring some travel modes on the other hand. In this reasonable world, policies such as moving house for existing population or restraining daily mobility intensity, whether destinations or out-of-home tours, are deliberately denied. Three contrasted areas are studied: two peri-urban areas around Lyon and Strasbourg on the one hand, one densely populated area, Lyon's conurbation, on the other hand. We show that scenarios combining control of vehicle unit emissions and new travel mode behaviors based on ridesharing and bike use including e-bike would arrive at SNBC targets. All levers don't have the same impact on emission reduction: various alternatives of the new population housing location have low stake regarding emissions from now to 2050. Moreover the social and political cost of "guiding" the new population residential location choices limits the relevance of such a policy.
    Abstract: La Stratégie Nationale Bas Carbone (SNBC) vise pour le secteur du transport une réduction, par rapport à 2013, de 30 % des émissions de CO2eq en 2030 et de 70 % à l'horizon 2050. Cet article analyse les marges de manœuvre concernant la mobilité du quotidien pour contribuer à cet objectif. Le cadre d'analyse est celui d'un monde « raisonnable », où les collectivités locales pourraient agir d'une part sur les choix des lieux de résidence des populations nouvelles anticipées, d'autre part sur les choix de mobilité, en favorisant certains modes de déplacements plutôt que d'autres. Dans ce monde raisonnable, on s'interdit d'une part d'imposer des déménagements à la population existante, d'autre part de réduire l'intensité actuelle de mobilité quotidienne, exprimée en nombre de sorties et lieux fréquentés. Trois territoires relativement contrastés sont étudiés : d'une part deux territoires périurbains autour de Lyon et Strasbourg, d'autre part un territoire urbain dense, celui de la métropole de Lyon. Nous montrons que des scénarios combinant maîtrise des émissions unitaires des véhicules et nouveaux comportements modaux, à base de covoiturage et de vélo, y compris à assistance électrique, permettraient d'atteindre les objectifs de la SNBC pour la mobilité du quotidien. Tous les leviers n'ont pas le même impact : les différentes alternatives de localisation de la population nouvelle envisagée d'ici à 2050 ne représentent que peu d'enjeux, du moins du point de vue du critère carbone. En outre, le coût social et politique d'une localisation résidentielle « dirigée » de la population nouvelle modère l'intérêt d'une telle mesure.
    Keywords: mobilité quotidienne,contrainte carbone,Modes de déplacements,leviers,Stratégie Nationale Bas Carbone (SNBC),comportements de mobilité,simulations,Lyon,Strasbourg,urbain,périurbain
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Martén, Linna; Hainmueller, Jens; Hangartner, Dominik
    Abstract: There is widespread concern in Europe and other refugee-receiving continents that living in an enclave of co-ethnics hinders refugees’ economic and social integration. Several European governments have adopted policies to geographically disperse refugees. While many theoretical arguments and descriptive studies analyze the impact of spatially concentrated ethnic networks on immigrant integration, there is limited causal evidence that sheds light on the efficacy of these policies. We provide evidence by studying the economic integration of refugees in Switzerland, where some refugees are assigned to live in a specific location upon arrival and by law are not permitted to relocate during the first five years. Leveraging this exogenous placement mechanism, we find that refugees assigned to locations with many co-nationals are more likely to enter the labor market. This benefit is most pronounced about three years after arrival and weakens somewhat with longer residency. In addition, we find that among refugees employed by the same company, a high proportion share nationality, ethnicity or language, which suggests that ethnic residential networks transmit information about employment opportunities. Together, these findings contribute to our understanding of the importance of ethnic networks for facilitating refugee integration, and they have implications for the design of refugee allocation policies.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–08–13
  15. By: Maria Marchenko (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Different types of shocks, or the treatment of one of the players in a specific network, may influence not only the future performance of themselves but also affect their network connections. It is crucial to explore the behaviour of the whole network in response to such an event. This paper focuses on the cases of endogenously formed shock. The logic used in the peer effect literature is adopted to develop the dynamic model and accounts for the endogeneity of the shock. The model allows us to predict the endogenous part of the shock and use the remaining unexpected component to estimate the effect of the shock on the changes in the performance of network connections. The identification conditions for effect are derived, and the consistent estimation procedure is proposed.
    Keywords: social networks, dynamic networks, peer effects, endogenous shock
    JEL: C21 C49 I21
    Date: 2019–08
  16. By: Dirk Bezemer; Anna Samarina
    Abstract: Does financial development increase income inequality? Ambiguous answers to this question may be due to over-aggregation of 'financial development'. In a sample of 40 developed economies over 1990-2013, we study the effects on income inequality of different components of financial development. There was a shift in bank credit allocation, away from supporting investments by non-financial firms and towards financing real estate markets ('debt shift'). In system-GMM estimations, we find that mortgage credit increases income inequality while credit to non-financial business reduces inequality. The effect of business credit is conditional on macroeconomic and labor market factors related to broader income formation, such as wage share, investment, trade openness, and labor force participation. House prices and the size of the real estate sector condition the impact of mortgage credit on income inequality.
    Keywords: income inequality; financial development; debt shift
    JEL: E51 G21 I30
    Date: 2019–08
  17. By: Custodio, Claudia; Ferreira, Miguel; Garcia-Appendini, Emilia
    Abstract: We estimate the economic costs of financial distress by exploiting cross-supplier variation in real estate assets and leverage, and the timing of real estate shocks. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, its purchases from suppliers in financial distress decline by an additional 10% following a drop in local real estate prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing and durable goods industries, for producers of less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that the indirect costs of financial distress are economically important.
    Keywords: Economic distress; financial distress; Real estate prices; Supply Chain
    JEL: G31 G32 G33 L11 L14
    Date: 2019–07
  18. By: Maria Marchenko (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Exam failures of the students in a specific network may influence not only the future performance of the student but also all students from their friendship networks, affecting the overall cohort's performance. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how the whole network responses to failure. The difficulty of such analysis is incorporated in the probability of the failures being highly endogenous. In this paper, I am applying the novel identification and estimation approach to deal with such endogeneity. I am exploring the dynamic data on the students' networks in HSE, Nizhniy Novgorod. The results suggest that, on average, the exam failure of the friend have a negative effect on future performance.
    Keywords: social networks, peer effects, exam failures, shock spillover
    JEL: C21 C49 I21
    Date: 2019–08
  19. By: Fitch, Dillon; Thigpen, Calvin; Cruz, Antonio; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: Bicycling is on the rise in many cities in part owing to substantial public investment in bicycle infrastructure. However, concerns over road safety continue to impede bicycling, suggesting a need for continued investments. But on what roads should improvements be made, and what types of facilities should be built to most benefit bicyclists? To better understand the link between how new bicycle infrastructure influences the routes that bicyclists choose, researchers analyzed bicyclists’ route choice before and after a 45% increase in bike lanes and 178% increase in sharrows (among other bicycle investments) in the City of San Francisco. San Francisco is an informative setting due to having a unique confluence of events, where rapid investment in bicycling infrastructure coincided with novel bicyclist route measurements through the smartphone app CycleTracks and a survey of CycleTracks users. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Behavior, Bicycle facilities, Capital investments, Crowdsourcing, Data collection, Global Positioning System, Mobile applications, Smartphones, Travel surveys
    Date: 2017–09–01
  20. By: Kristina Barauskaite (Bank of Lithuania & ISM University of Management and Economics); Anh D. M. Nguyen (Bank of Lithuania & Vilnius University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the direct and intersectoral network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks on sectors’ growth in the context of US manufacturing industries. To deal with the potential endogeneity of TFP, we propose a novel set of instruments for contemporaneous regressors. These instruments are technology shocks identified via sign restriction from sectoral SVAR models. Using US input-output tables and industry-level data, we quantify direct and network-based effects of the shocks. Our results show that idiosyncratic technology shocks propagate mostly downstream the network. In addition, we capture strong contemporaneous direct effects of the shocks.
    Keywords: Input-Output Linkages, Network, Instrumental Variables, Idiosyncratic TFP Shocks, Sectoral Growth, US Manufacturing Industry
    JEL: C36 C67 D24 E32
    Date: 2019–08–13
  21. By: Federico Revelli; Tsung-Sheng Tsai
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the rare occurrence of a local election ending in a tie or being decided by a single vote generates informational spill-overs on nearby localities’ subsequent elections. First, based on the pivotal-voter theory, we develop a model of costly instrumental voting in sequential elections with private information, where voters update their beliefs regarding the distribution of political preferences and the probability of their vote being decisive upon observing the outcomes in earlier elections, and decide whether to turn out to vote accordingly. Next, by exploiting over a hundred exact ties or one-vote-difference results in Italian mayoral elections during the past two decades and the quasi-experimental conditions created by the staggered municipal electoral calendar, we test the model’s empirical predictions and find a substantial impact on voter turnout rates of exposure for geographical reasons to spill-overs from the localities experiencing those bizarre electoral outcomes.
    Keywords: tied elections, voter turnout, information spill-over, salience
    JEL: D72 H71
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Sergey Kichko
    Abstract: Larger cities typically give rise to two opposite effects: tougher competition among firms and higher production costs. Using an urban model with substitutability of production factors and pro-competitive effects, I study the response of the market outcome to city size, land-use regulations, and commuting costs. For industries with low input shares of land, larger cities host more firms setting lower prices whereas for sectors with intermediate land shares larger cities accommodate more firms charging higher prices. Softer land-use regulations and/or lower commuting costs reinforce pro-competitive effects, making larger cities more attractive for residents via lower prices and broader product diversity.
    Keywords: land prices, pro-competitive effects, city size, product diversity, land-use regulations
    JEL: L11 L13 R13 R32 R52
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Francesco Agostinelli (University of Pennsylvania); Morteza Saharkhiz (Arizona State University); Matthew Wiswall (University of Wisconsin--Madison)
    Abstract: We develop a unified empirical framework for child development which nests the key features of two previously parallel research programs, the Child Development literature and the Education Production Function literature. Our framework allows for mis-measured cognitive and non-cognitive skills, classroom effects, parental influences, and complementarities. Although both are important, we estimate that differential parental investments are the more important source of end-of-kindergarten inequality than classroom quality. Quality classrooms have a larger effect on children entering kindergarten with skill deficits. Our estimated model replicates out-of-sample patterns by excluded race and family income variables and experimental results from the Tennessee STAR experiment.
    Keywords: Child Development; School; Parents; Education Production Function; Child Development; Skill Formation; Value-added; Latent Factor Models; Skill Production Technology
    JEL: I21 J13
    Date: 2019–07
  24. By: Artur Santoalha (University of Oslo, TIK); Ron Boschma (Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Planning, University of Stavanger, UiS Business School)
    Abstract: Regional diversification is a process characterized by past and place dependence: new activities tend to emerge and develop in a region in technological or industrial fields closely related to existing local activities. Recently, the relatedness concept has also been applied successfully to studies on green diversification of regions, providing new insights to the transition literature that is primarily focused on disruptive change. What has received little attention is a systematic approach that assesses the role of political support for the ability of regions to diversify into new green activities. This paper makes a first attempt to test the impact of regional capabilities and political support for environmental policy at the national and regional scale on the ability of 95 regions in 7 European countries to diversify into new green technologies during the period 2000-2012. We find evidence that related capabilities rather than political support in a region is associated with green diversification of regions in Europe. However, political support tends to moderate the role of regional capabilities.
    Date: 2019–08
  25. By: Tobias Fuchs; Georg Gebhardt
    Abstract: Are entrepreneurs liquidity constraint? Using quasi-random housing wealth variation resulting from communist era decisions, we argue yes, as we find that wealthier East Germans are more likely to become self-employed after reunification. In the literature, no such strong relationship was found using regional house price changes the US and UK. In these economies, our results suggest, the effects of liquidity constraints are masked by anticipatory savings of the would be self-employed, which was impossible for the East Germans in our sample due to communism.
    Keywords: self-employment, financial constraints, wealthy households, starting capital
    JEL: J23 L26 G32
    Date: 2019
  26. By: Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen T.; Simsek, Alp
    Abstract: We provide evidence on the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor market analysis and regional heterogeneity in stock market wealth. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, while having no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model with consumption wealth effects and geographic heterogeneity, these responses imply a marginal propensity to consume out of a dollar of stock wealth of 2.8 cents per year. We also use the model to quantify the aggregate effects of a stock market wealth shock when monetary policy is passive. A 20% increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 0.85% and aggregate hours by at least 0.28% two years after the shock.
    Keywords: consumption wealth effect; employment; marginal propensity to consume; monetary policy; nominal rigidities; regional heterogeneity; Stock Prices; Time-varying risk premium; wages
    JEL: E21 E32 E44
    Date: 2019–07
  27. By: David Neumark; Timothy Young
    Abstract: This paper revisits an important analysis of enterprise zones (EZs) by Ham, Swenson, Imrohoroğlu, and Song (2011), who report substantial poverty reductions from state and federal EZs, as well as improvements in other labor market outcomes. In our re-analysis, we find that a data error accounts for a large share of the estimated impact of state EZs in reducing poverty. More generally, we find that both state and federal EZs appear to be endogenously selected based on prior changes in poverty and other labor market outcomes. Once we account for this selection, much of the evidence that state and federal EZs reduce poverty largely evaporates, as does most of the evidence for other beneficial effects of enterprise zones, with the main exception of some limited evidence for federal Empowerment Zones. Thus, we confirm the more widely-prevailing view that EZs – and especially state EZs – have for the most part been ineffective at reducing urban poverty or improving labor market outcomes in the United States.
    Keywords: enterprise zones, poverty, unemployment
    JEL: J23 J38
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Germeshausen, Robert; von Graevenitz, Kathrine
    Abstract: We study the effect of a state level mandate on renewable heating technologies on the housing market. The mandate requires a minimum share of 10 % renewable energy sources when changing the heating system in the existing building stock. As renewable energy sources are still more expensive than conventional alternatives this mandate could lower the relative price of homes in the existing building stock when a replacement of the heating system is impending. We implement a two stage difference-in-differences nearest neighbor matching approach to identify the effect on prices taking advantage of differences in regulation by location and vintage of the building stock. Our results find no evidence of an effect of the mandate on housing prices.
    Keywords: Building regulations,Renewable energy sources,Hedonic pricing
    JEL: Q42 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2019
  29. By: Lorde, Troy; Jacob, Jadon; Weekes, Quinn
    Abstract: This study investigated the price-setting behaviour of hosts in the tourism sharing economy in the Caribbean. Generally speaking, we find that site, reputation, convenience, personal and amenities attributes, along with country-level indicators significantly affect prices in the Caribbean. More specifically, most attributes have a positive effect on price-setting. Larger accommodations charge higher prices. Hosts with superior reputations charge higher prices. However, listings with a larger number of ratings are associated with lower prices. This may be an artefact of tourists’ preferences for cheaper sharing accommodations, resulting in a relatively higher volume of reviews for properties at the lower end of the price spectrum. Provision of Convenience options have an overall positive effect on prices, although there is evidence that some options can result in lower prices for tourists. The sole Personal attribute investigated is associated with higher price-setting behaviour. Virtually all amenities examined result in greater prices being charged for the space. Results indicate that geography has significant effects on price-setting behaviour. Listings in countries with greater economic and infrastructural development, greater biodiversity, but weaker exchange rates have higher prices. On the other hand, prices are lower in countries where there is more competition for customers.
    Keywords: tourism, sharing economy, Airbnb, Caribbean, price-setting behaviour
    JEL: L83 O54
    Date: 2018–05–03
  30. By: Nadler, Carl; Allegretto, Sylvia; Godoey, Anna; Reich, Michael
    Abstract: We measure the effects of six citywide minimum wages that ranged up to $13 in Chicago, the District of Columbia, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle, employing event study and synthetic control methods. Using aggregate data on average earnings and employment in the food services industry, we find significantly positive earnings increases and no significant employment losses. While such evidence suggests the policies raised the earnings of low-wage workers, as intended, a competing explanation is that the industry responds to wage increases by increasing their demand for more productive higher-wage workers, offsetting low-wage layoffs (i.e., labor-labor substitution). To tackle this key question, we present a theoretical framework that connects the responses estimated at the industry-level to the own- and cross-wage labor demand elasticities that summarize the total effect of the policies on workers. Using a calibration exercise, we find that the combination of average earnings gains and constant employment cannot be produced by labor-labor substitution unless there are also effects on hours. To test whether the minimum wage increases demand for higher-wage workers or reduces low-wage workers’ hours, we examine the effects of California’s recent state and local minimum wage policies on the food services industry. There we find no evidence of labor-labor substitution or hours responses. Thus, the most likely explanation for the responses we find in the cities is that the industry’s demand for low-wage workers is inelastic, and the policies raised their earnings.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, MINIMUM WAGE, LIVING WAGE
    Date: 2019–04–01
  31. By: ALONSO RAPOSO Maria (European Commission - JRC); CIUFFO Biagio (European Commission – JRC); ARDENTE Fulvio (European Commission - JRC); AURAMBOUT Jean Philippe (European Commission - JRC); Gianmarco BALDINI (European Commission - JRC); Robert BRAUN (European Commission - JRC); Panayotis CHRISTIDIS (European Commission - JRC); Aris Christodoulou (European Commission - JRC); Amandine DUBOZ (European Commission - JRC); Sofia FELICI (European Commission - JRC); Jaime FERRAGUT (European Commission - JRC); Aliki GEORGAKAKI (European Commission - JRC); Konstantinos GKOUMAS (European Commission - JRC); Monica GROSSO (European Commission - JRC); Maria IGLESIAS (European Commission - JRC); Andreea JULEA (European Commission - JRC); Jette KRAUSE (European Commission - JRC); Bertin MARTENS (European Commission - JRC); Fabrice MATHIEUX (European Commission - JRC); Gerhard MENZEL (European Commission - JRC); Silvia MONDELLO (European Commission - JRC); Elena NAVAJAS (European Commission - JRC); Ferenc PEKAR (European Commission - JRC); Ioan RAILEANU (European Commission - JRC); Harald SCHOLZ (European Commission - JRC); Marie TAMBA (European Commission - JRC); Anastasios TSAKALIDIS (European Commission - JRC); Mitchell VAN BALEN (European Commission - JRC); Ine VANDECASTEELE (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming not only our vehicles, but everything about how we get around, and how we live our lives. The JRC report “The future of road transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility†looks at some main enablers of the transformation of road transport, such as data governance, infrastructures, communication technologies and cybersecurity, and legislation. It discusses the potential impacts on the economy, employment and skills, energy use and emissions, the sustainability of raw materials, democracy, privacy and social fairness, as well as on the urban context. It shows how the massive changes on the horizon represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible to larger parts of society than the current one centred on car ownership. However, new transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies to the 21st century. The improvement of governance and the development of innovative mobility solutions will be crucial to ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present.
    Keywords: road transport, mobility, connected vehicles, automated vehicles
    JEL: R00 R40 O18 L91 L62
    Date: 2019–06
  32. By: Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne; Peo, Audrey
    Abstract: The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs are operated locally by school food authorities (SFAs), usually a part of the local school district. SFAs are reimbursed at nationally set rates for the cost of meals served to participating students. Previous USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) analysis found substantial variation in total costs across SFAs but did not identify the sources of those cost differences. This report examines food cost differences, using a large national sample of SFAs to examine how food purchase costs vary by SFA location, characteristics, and purchasing practices. Results show that food costs dropped with the volume of products purchased. Food costs also varied considerably across location—SFAs in the Northern Plains and Mountain regions had higher average food costs, and SFAs in the Southeast regions had the lowest food costs for major food groups. SFA purchasing practices also affected costs. Purchasing cooperatives, a popular strategy among SFAs, had mixed associations with food costs, possibly because SFAs may use them not only to reduce costs, but also for aims such as obtaining wider access to desired food products.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Public Economics
    Date: 2018–11
  33. By: Alessandra Fogli; Veronica Guerrieri
    Abstract: Since the '80s the US has experienced not only a steady increase in income inequality, but also a contemporaneous increase in residential segregation by income. Using US Census data, we first document a positive correlation between inequality and segregation at the MSA level between 1980 and 2010. We then develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model where parents choose the neighborhood where to raise their children and invest in their children's education. In the model, segregation and inequality amplify each other because of a local spillover that affects the returns to education. We calibrate the model using 1980 US data and the micro estimates of the effect of neighborhood exposure in Chetty and Hendren (2018). We then assume that in 1980 an unexpected permanent skill premium shock hits the economy and show that segregation contributes to 28% of the subsequent increase in inequality.
    JEL: D5 D63 E0 E24
    Date: 2019–08
  34. By: Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne; Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte; Tu, Gengyang
    Abstract: Conveyance, i.e., the fact that an appliance purchased will be left in the dwelling when moving out, may lead homeowners to purchase appliances of lower quality or performance, because the extra costs are not entirely capitalized into the house sales price. Employing a discrete choice experiment with homeown-ers in the United States, this paper explores the effects of conveyance on homeowners' willingness-to-pay for various attributes of refrigerators. To ac-count for the social nature of purchases when conveyance is likely to occur, it also tests the moderating role of envy (elicited through an incentivized game). The findings suggest that conveyors are more likely to purchase a smaller re-frigerator, from a less well-known brand, and with lower customer ratings. In contrast, conveyance was not found to affect homeowners' choices when it comes to energy cost. In addition, envy was found to generally reinforce the negative effects of conveyance on homeowners' willingness-to-pay for quality and performance attributes. While conveyance and its interaction with envy help explain homeowners' choice of quality/performance attributes of applianc-es, these factors do not appear to explain the energy efficiency paradox.
    Keywords: energy efficiency paradox,conveyance,envy,choice experiment
    Date: 2019
  35. By: Burke, Jeremy; Jamison, Julian C.; Karlan, Dean S.; Mihaly, Kata; Zinman, Jonathan
    Abstract: There is little evidence on how the large market for credit score improvement products affects consumers or credit market efficiency. A randomized encouragement design on a standard credit builder loan (CBL) identifies null average effects on whether consumers have a credit score and the score itself, with important heterogeneity: those with loans outstanding at baseline fare worse, those without fare better. Selection, treatment effect, and prediction models indicate the CBL reveals valuable information to markets, inducing positive selection and making credit histories more precise, while keeping credit scores' predictive power intact. With modest targeting changes, CBLs could work as intended.
    Keywords: consumer finance; credit invisibles; credit scoring; household finance; screening; subprime; thin file
    JEL: D12 G14 G21
    Date: 2019–07
  36. By: Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
    Abstract: Using the mass closure of development zones in 2004 as a natural experiment, we examine the causal effect of development zones on firm level TFP in China. The difference-in-difference estimator shows that on average, loss of development zone policies results in 6.5% loss of firms’ TFP. Locational heterogeneity is important. Within 500 kilometers from the three major seaports in China, closure of zones reduced firm-level TFP by 9.62%, whereas closure of zones farther away did not show significant effects. Market potential and local within-industry spillover effects can explain much of this locational heterogeneity. We conclude that China’s strategy of using development zones as a place-based policy to encourage inland development may have led to spatial misallocation.
    JEL: O53 R1 R58
    Date: 2019–08
  37. By: Dubovik, Andrei
    Abstract: I study mergers where each firm owns multiple shops across a country. Presently, the European Commission views every shop, together with the shops from its catchment area, as an isolated market. Such an approach is internally inconsistent. I show how to extend the European Commission's approach to consistently take overlaps in catchment areas into account. My model is a specialization of the existing network theory that is aimed to be feasible in real merger cases. As a demonstration, I study a past merger case and I find that neglecting overlaps in catchment areas can result in substantial biases.
    Keywords: mergers, networks, spatial competition, consumer demand
    JEL: D43 D85 L13 L14 L40
    Date: 2018–06–09
  38. By: Ismail, Mehreen; Wilde, Parke E.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2019–06–25
  39. By: Tomoya Mori; Shosei Sakaguchi
    Abstract: This paper presents micro-econometric evidence for collaborative knowledge creation at the level of individual researchers. The key determinant for developing new ideas is the exchange of differentiated knowledge among collaborators. To stay creative, inventors seek opportunities to shift their technological expertise to unexplored niches by utilizing the differentiated knowledge of new collaborators. Furthermore, a more active recombination of collaborators by an inventor facilitates the selection of collaborators to raise the amount of differentiated knowledge from their collaborators.
    Date: 2019–08
  40. By: D'Agostino, Mollie; Pellaton, Paige; Brown, Austin
    Abstract: Dynamic and responsive transportation systems are a core pillar of equitable and sustainable communities. Achieving such systems requires comprehensive mobility data, or data that reports the movement of individuals and vehicles. Such data enable planners and policymakers to make informed decisions and enable researchers to model the effects of various transportation solutions. However, collecting mobility data also raises concerns about privacy and proprietary interests. This issue paper provides an overview of the top needs and challenges surrounding mobility data sharing and presents four relevant policy strategies: (1) Foster voluntary agreement among mobility providers for a set of standardized data specifications; (2) Develop clear data-sharing requirements designed for transportation network companies and other mobility providers; (3) Establish publicly held big-data repositories, managed by third parties, to securely hold mobility data and provide structured access by states, cities, and researchers; (4) Leverage innovative land-use and transportation-planning tools.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, data sharing, policy making, transportation policy, shared mobility, transportation planning, city planning
    Date: 2019–08–01
  41. By: Squicciarini, Mara
    Abstract: This paper uses a historical setting to study when religion can be a barrier to the diffusion of knowledge and economic development, and through which mechanism. I focus on 19th-century Catholicism and analyze a crucial phase of modern economic growth, the Second Industrial Revolution (1870-1914) in France. In this period, technology became skill-intensive, leading to the introduction of technical education in primary schools. At the same time, the Catholic Church was promoting a particularly antiscientific program and opposed the adoption of a technical curriculum. Using data collected from primary and secondary sources, I exploit preexisting variation in the intensity of Catholicism (i.e., religiosity) among French districts and cantons. I show that, despite a stable spatial distribution of religiosity over time, more religious locations had lower economic development only during the Second Industrial Revolution, but not before. Schooling appears to be the key mechanism: more religious areas saw a slower introduction of the technical curriculum and instead a push for religious education. Religious education, in turn, was negatively associated with industrial development about 10 to15 years later, when school-aged children entered the labor market, and this negative relationship was more pronounced in skill-intensive industrial sectors.
    Keywords: Human Capital; Industrialization; Religiosity
    JEL: J24 N13 Z12
    Date: 2019–07
  42. By: Marc-Olivier Pepin; Georges A. Tanguay
    Abstract: In this article, we estimate the car trips generated by the arrival of autonomous vehicles (AV) in the Greater Montreal Area. Our research methodology is based on a simulation model which estimates new travel demand associated with AV by measuring differences in travel needs by age categories. Given the uncertainty regarding the evolution of critical variables such as future car occupancy rate, we evaluate different scenarios to assess a range of potential effects of VA on motorized travel. Thus, the results predict a 13% average increase in motorized trips based on overall results, and a 16% to 20% increase in trips based on a stable average vehicle occupancy rate in the coming years. Otherwise, the predicted increase in travel is between 2%, based on a 14% increase in occupancy, and 26%, based on a 5% decrease in occupancy. For each of the scenarios assessed in the analysis, we estimate the effects on external costs caused by automobile travel. According to our results, AV could reduce private and social costs by $ 5,059 billion in Quebec.
    Keywords: Autonomous Cars,Driverless,Self-Driving,Motorized Travel,Age,
    Date: 2019–08–14
  43. By: Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: About 1.4 million refugees and irregular migrants arrived in Europe in 2015 and 2016. We model how refugees and irregular migrants are self-selected. Using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls, we provide the first large-scale evidence on reasons to emigrate, and the self-selection and sorting of refugees and irregular migrants for multiple origin and destination countries. Refugees and female irregular migrants are positively self-selected with respect to education, while male irregular migrants are not. We also find that both male and female migrants from major conflict countries are positively self-selected in terms of their predicted income. For countries with minor or no conflict, migrant and non-migrant men do not differ in terms of their income distribution, while women who emigrate are positively self-selected. We also analyze how border controls affect destination country choice.
    Keywords: refugees, self-selection, human capital, predicted income
    JEL: J15 J24 O15
    Date: 2019
  44. By: Tamás Krisztin; Philipp Piribauer (WIFO)
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a Bayesian estimation approach for a spatial autoregressive logit specification. Our approach relies on recent advances in Bayesian computing, making use of Pólya-Gamma sampling for Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The proposed specification assumes that the involved log-odds of the model follow a spatial autoregressive process. Pólya-Gamma sampling involves a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial autoregressive logit model, allowing for extensions to the existing baseline specification in an elegant and straightforward way. In a Monte Carlo study we demonstrate that our proposed approach significantly outperforms existing spatial autoregressive probit specifications both in terms of parameter precision and computational time. The paper moreover illustrates the performance of the proposed spatial autoregressive logit specification using pan-European regional data on foreign direct investments. Our empirical results highlight the importance of accounting for spatial dependence when modelling European regional FDI flows.
    Keywords: Spatial autoregressive logit, Bayesian MCMC estimation, FDI flows, European regions
    Date: 2019–08–19
  45. By: Genakos, Christos D.; Pagliero, Mario
    Abstract: We measure how pass-through varies with competition in isolated oligopolistic markets with captive consumers. Using daily pricing data from gas stations, we study how unanticipated and exogenous changes in excise duties (which vary across different petroleum products) are passed through to consumers in markets with different numbers of retailers. We find that pass-through increases from 0.44 in monopoly markets to 1 in markets with four or more competitors and remains constant thereafter. Moreover, the speed of price adjustment is about 60% higher in more competitive markets. Finally, we show that geographic market definitions based on arbitrary measures of distance across sellers, often used by researchers and policy makers, result in significant overestimation of the pass-through when the number of competitors is small.
    Keywords: Competition; gasoline; market structure; Pass-Through; Tax Incidence
    JEL: H22 L1
    Date: 2019–07
  46. By: Mari Rege; Ingunn Størksen; Ingeborg F. Solli; Ariel Kalil; Megan McClelland; Dieuwer ten Braak; Ragnhild Lenes; Svanaug Lunde; Svanhild Breive; Martin Carlsen; Ingvald Erfjord; Per S. Hundeland
    Abstract: This study tests an intervention that introduces a structured curriculum for five-year olds into the universal preschool context of Norway. We conduct a field experiment with 691 five-year-olds in 71 preschools and measure treatment impacts on children’s development in mathematics, language and executive functioning. Compared to business as usual, the nine-month curriculum intervention has effects on child development at post-intervention and the effects persist one year following the end of the treatment. The effects are entirely driven by the preschool centers identified as low-quality at baseline, suggesting that a structured curriculum can reduce inequality in early childhood learning environments.
    Keywords: universal preschool, intervention, randomized controlled trial, field experiment, child development
    JEL: I20 H42
    Date: 2019
  47. By: Britton, Tolani
    Abstract: This paper explores one reason for the educational gaps experienced by Black men. Using variation in state marijuana possession and distribution laws, this paper examines whether the Anti-Drug Act of 1986, which increased the disproportionate incarceration of Black males, also led to differences in college enrollment rates. The results suggest that Black males had a 2.2% point decrease in the relative probability of college enrollment after the passage of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986. There is some evidence that laws around crack cocaine, and not marijuana, led to this decrease in the probability of enrollment.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, CRIMINAL JUSTICE, EDUCATION, GENDER AND RACE
    Date: 2019–04–01
  48. By: Hezam Haidar (G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Karine Evrard Samuel (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Jean-François Boujut (GILCO - Gestion Industrielle Logistique et Conception - INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble)
    Abstract: Academia-Industry collaboration is increasingly seen as an essential engine of local economic development and the open innovation model is a key element in such collaboration. The aim of this paper is to explore the existing literature in a systematic way to identify the factors that influence decision makers to start an open innovation collaborations between universities and SMEs. The review shows that open innovation' in the context of university-Industry is receiving more and more attention. The majority of the existing research focus on knowledge and technology transfer. We used the Content Analysis method to analyze the final sample, the findings fall into four categories of factors: Organizational Structure, External Resources, Performance Indicators and Proximity. The article concludes with suggestions for future research.
    Keywords: SMEs,open innovation,university-Industry collaboration,early-stage development knowledge and technology transfer,systematic review
    Date: 2019–06–25
  49. By: Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Ministry of Finance); Weinhardt, Felix (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: We study the local evolution of cultural norms in West Germany in reaction to the sudden presence of East Germans who migrated to the West after reunification. These migrants grew up with very high rates of maternal employment, whereas West German families followed the traditional breadwinner-housewife model. We find that West German women increase their labor supply and that this holds within household. We provide additional evidence on stated gender norms, West-East friendships, intermarriage, and childcare infrastructure. The dynamic evolution of the local effects on labor supply is best explained by local cultural learning and endogenous childcare infrastructure.
    Keywords: cultural norms, local learning, gender, immigration
    JEL: J16 J21 D1
    Date: 2019–07
  50. By: Grosskurth, Philipp
    Abstract: Ownership structures of multinational enterprises are commonly assumed to remain constant over time, both due to a lack of easily accessible panel data and to facilitate empirical analyses. This paper discusses the validity of this assumption and assesses its relevance in the context of profit shifting. A new method of reconstructing historical ownership information in Bureau van Dijk's ORBIS database reveals a highly dynamic environment. The validity of the assumption collapses with increasing panel length; ownership structures are rarely constant over time. Moreover, about 9 percent of firms with observed ownership data change owners in each year. The relevance of the assumption is tested by re-estimating indirect measures of profit shifting for selected benchmark samples. Assuming ownership structures as constant has a strong impact on sample composition, adding almost 29 percent of additional observations compared to historical ownership data. In the context of profit shifting, estimates based on constant ownership data are found to be larger in absolute magnitude compared to estimates based on historical ownership data.
    Keywords: ORBIS,historical ownership data,MNE,profit shifting
    JEL: F23 H25 H26
    Date: 2019
  51. By: Josten, Cecily (London School of Economics); Lordan, Grace (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study builds on Autor and Dorn's (2013) classification of automatable work at the three-digit occupation code level to identify additional jobs that will be automatable in the next decade by drawing on patent data. Based on this new classification the study provides estimates of the share of jobs that expected to be automatable in the EU and across 25 individual countries. The study highlights that aspects of 47% of jobs will be automatable over the next decade, with 35% of all jobs being fully automatable. It also provides some evidence that 'thinking' and 'people' skills will become increasingly important for the fourth industrial revolution. The study puts emphasis on the fact that these estimates are based on static models. Assuming that some of the rents from labor technology will filter back into the economy it is expected that other occupations will expand in number as people consume more goods and services.
    Keywords: robots, labor markets, skills
    JEL: J23 J24
    Date: 2019–07
  52. By: Jarotschkin, Alexandra; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: We study horizontal between-group cultural transmission using a unique historical setting, which combines exogenous group exposure with no control over how and whether the representatives of different groups interact. Stalin's ethnic deportations during WWII moved over 2 million people, the majority of whom were ethnic Germans and Chechens, from the Western parts of the USSR to Central Asia and Siberia. As a result, the native population in the destination locations was exposed to groups with drastically different gender norms, depending on the group composition of the deportees. We estimate the effect of this exposure relying on the fact that within subnational regions the local population was fairly homogeneous, and the deportation destinations were determined by local demand for manual labor, orthogonal to the identity or skills of deportees. Combining historical archival data with contemporary surveys, we document that both the norms of gender equality and of gender discrimination were diffused to the local population exposed to deportee groups with these norms, manifesting itself in changes of attitudes and behavior.
    Keywords: Deportations; Gender norms; Horizontal cultural transmission; Stalin
    Date: 2019–07
  53. By: Anna Stelzer
    Abstract: This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination with five data sampling strategies to tackle existing class imbalances in the data. Six different performance measures are used to cover different aspects of predictive performance. The results indicate a strong superiority of ensemble methods and show that simple sampling strategies deliver better results than more sophisticated ones.
    Date: 2019–07
  54. By: Hans Fehr; Maurice Hofmann
    Abstract: We study the interplay between tenure decisions, stock market investment and the public social security system. Housing equity not only serves a dual purpose as a consumption good and as an asset, but also provides insurance to buffer various risks in retirement. Our life cycle model captures these links in order to explain why homeownership in Germany is so low. Our simulation results indicate that the public long-term care as well as the pension system reduce the homeownership rate in Germany by 10-15 percentage points.
    Keywords: homeownership, stock market participation, life-cycle models, long-term care
    JEL: C61 G11 H55
    Date: 2019

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