nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒08‒19
fifty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Does College Location Affect the Location Choice of New College Graduates? Evidence from China By Huang, Mian; Xing, Chunbing; Cui, Xiaoyong
  2. Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting By Victor Couture; Cecile Gaubert; Jessie Handbury; Erik Hurst
  3. How much are good schools worth? Evidence from school acquisitions in Beijing By Su, Xuejuan; Yu, Huayi
  4. Spatial Dynamics of Logistics Facilities and Implications for Freight Flows By Giuliano, Genevieve; Kang, Sanggyun; Yuan, Quan
  5. Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China By Chen, Xin; Qin, Yaohua; Xiao, He; Zhang, Yifei
  6. Instruction Time, Information, and Student Achievement: Evidence from a Field Experiment By Simon Calmar Andersen; Thorbjørn Sejr Guul; Maria Knoth Humlum
  7. International City Network and Public-Private Cooperation Japanese Public Water Services’ Overseas Expansion By Naoki FUJIWARA
  8. Heterogeneous Endogenous Effects in Networks By Sida Peng
  9. Good Schools or Good Students? The Importance of Selectivity for School Rankings By Doris, Aedin; O'Neill, Donal; Sweetman, Olive
  10. Do Rail Transit Stations Induce Displacement? By Boarnet, Marlon; Bostic, Raphael; Rodnyansky, Seva; Santiago-Bartolomei, Raúl; Williams, Danielle
  11. Effects of Housing Transfer Taxes on Household Mobility By Essi Eerola; Oskari Harjunen; Teemu Lyytikäinen; Tuukka Saarimaa
  12. The Effects of Career and Technical Education: Evidence from the Connecticut Technical High School System By Eric Brunner; Shaun Dougherty; Stephen Ross
  13. The Influence of Misperceptions about Social Norms on Substance Use among School-age Adolescents By Amialchuk, Aliaksandr; Ajilore, Gbenga; Egan, Kevin
  14. Does federal contracting spur development? Federal contracts, income, output, and jobs in US cities By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Gerritse, Michiel
  15. Managing the Impacts of Freight in California By Giuliano, Genevieve; Showalter, Catherine; Yuan, Quan; Zhang, Rui
  16. Evaluating UPE in Uganda: school fee abolition and educational outcomes By Sophia Kan; Stephan Klasen
  17. Does Eviction Cause Poverty? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Cook County, IL By John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Daniel Tannenbaum; Winnie van Dijk
  18. We Can Get There From Here: New Perspectives on Transportation Equity By Karner, Alex; Rowangould, Dana; London, Jonathan
  19. Three triggers? Negative equity, income shocks and institutions as determinants of mortgage default By Linn, Andrew; Lyons, Ronan
  20. Big plant closures and local employment By Jofre-Monseny, Jordi; Sánchez-Vidal, Maria; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet
  21. State and Local Taxes and High-Wage Employment By Sohani Fatehin; David L. Sjoquist
  22. For whom are cities good places to live? By Fredrik Carlsen; Stefan Leknes
  23. Dual-Credit Courses and the Road to College: Experimental Evidence from Tennessee By Hemelt, Steven W.; Schwartz, Nathaniel L.; Dynarski, Susan
  24. The Internal Spatial Organization of Firms: Evidence from Denmark By Acosta, Camilo; Lyngemark, Ditte Håkonsson
  25. Labor Demand Shocks at Birth and Cognitive Achievement during Childhood By Regmi, Krishna; Henderson, Daniel J.
  26. The Fetters of Inheritance? Equal Partition and Regional Economic Development By Thilo R. Huning; Fabian Wahl
  27. Accessibility to Jobs Outside Employment Sub-Centers Has a Larger Impact on VMT Reduction than Accessibility to Jobs Inside Employment Sub-Centers By Boarnet, Marlon; Wang, Xize
  28. Multi-Horizon Financial and Housing Wealth Effects across the U.S. States By Yener Coskun; Christos Bouras; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar
  29. Smarter cities’ attractiveness. Testing new criteria or facets: “data scientists” and “data platforms By Maurice Baslé
  30. New Tool Evaluates Health and Equity Impacts of Sacramento’s Regional Transportation Plans By Karner, Alex; Rowangould, Dana; Wu, Yizheng; Ogbinedion, Ofurhe; London, Jonathan
  31. Macro to the rescue? An analysis of macroprudential instruments to regulate housing credit By Falter, Alexander
  32. Somewhere in between towns, markets, and neighbors – Agricultural transition in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, India By Linda Steinhübel
  33. Ewing Marion Kauffman School Year 7 Impacts By Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers
  34. The importance of Punishment Substitutability in Criminometric Studies By Eugene Braslavskiy; Firmin Doko Tchatoka; Virginie Masson
  35. The Optimal Provision of Information and Communication Technologies in Smart Cities By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
  36. Energy-aware Trajectory Optimization of Connected and Automated Vehicle Platoons through a Signalized Intersection By Han, Xiao PhD; Ma, Rui PhD; Zhang, H. Michael PhD
  37. Revisiting the Anomalous Relationship between Inflation and REIT Returns in Presence of Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from the USA and the UK By Das, Mahamitra; Sarkar, Nityananda
  38. Valuation of Wetland Restoration Program in Arkansas: Evidence from the Housing Market By Richardson, Matthew S.; Liu, Pengfei; Eggleton, Michael
  39. Safety-Net Hospitals, Neighborhood Disadvantage, and Readmissions Under Maryland's All-Payer Program: An Observational Study By Stephen F. Jencks; Alyson Schuster; Geoff B. Dougherty; Sule Gerovich; Jane E. Brock; Amy J.H. Kind
  40. Crime and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Manaus, Brazil By Pedro Drugowick; Paula Pereda
  41. What Works at Scale? A Framework to Scale Up Workforce Development Programs By Ruder, Alexander
  42. Effects of Information on Risk Perception: Empirical Evidence from Housing Market in Taiwan By Cheng, Tzu-Chang Forrest; Wang, Tai-Chi; Zhu, Jian-Da
  43. The Impact of Climate Change on Internal Migration in Brazil By Jaqueline Oliveira; Paula Pereda
  44. Credit Building or Credit Crumbling? A Credit Builder Loan’s Effects on Consumer Behavior, Credit Scores and Their Predictive Power By Jeremy Burke; Julian Jamison; Dean Karlan; Kata Mihaly; Jonathan Zinman
  45. A review of volume 5 of the handbook of regional and urban economics. By Head, Keith; Mayer, Thierry; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.
  46. Air Pollution during Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes in Italy By Palma, Alessandro; Petrunyk, Inna; Vuri, Daniela
  47. Immigrants and Workplace Training: Evidence from Canadian Linked Employer Employee Data By Dostie, Benoit; Javdani, Mohsen
  48. Hurricanes, Flood Risk and the Economic Adaptation of Businesses By Indaco, Agustín; Ortega, Francesc; Taspinar, Süleyman
  49. Land Tenure and Conservation Practice Use: Evidence from Landowners’ Decisions in Iowa By Sawadgo, Wendiam PM; Zhang, Wendong; Plastina, Alejandro
  50. Market Power and Spatial Price Discrimination in Agricultural Procurement Markets: Evidence from the Corn Market in Indiana By Jung, Jinho; Sesmero, Juan Pablo; Siebert, Ralph
  51. Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany By Huang, Yue; Kvasnicka, Michael

  1. By: Huang, Mian (Southwestern University of Economics and Finance); Xing, Chunbing (Beijing Normal University); Cui, Xiaoyong (Peking University)
    Abstract: Based on a representative survey of new college graduates in China, we examine the impact of college location on their location choice upon graduation. We use a discrete choice model and the BLP method to solve the endogeneity problem of housing cost and to estimate the unobservable location features. Furthermore, we allow for different distributions of city preference for graduates studying in different regions to address the self-selection problem of college location. Empirical results show that the graduates are significantly more likely to stay in where they attended college, to return to their hometown, and to avoid cities with high housing costs. Simulation exercise shows that the impact of college location on migration varies considerably across cities, and there is significant heterogeneity for students from universities of different tiers and from rural vs. urban areas. Reduced form evidence suggests that internship in the local labor market plays an important role in raising the probability of staying. College education increased the students' interaction with the local economy and reduced the costs of job search.
    Keywords: higher education, regional development, location choice, human capital
    JEL: J13 J16 J61 J24
    Date: 2019–07
  2. By: Victor Couture; Cecile Gaubert; Jessie Handbury; Erik Hurst
    Abstract: We explore the impact of rising incomes at the top of the distribution on spatial sorting patterns within large U.S. cities. We develop and quantify a spatial model of a city with heterogeneous agents and nonhomothetic preferences for locations with different amenities of endogenous quality. As the rich get richer, their increased demand for luxury amenities available downtown drives housing prices up in downtown areas. The poor are made worse off, either being displaced or paying higher rents for amenities that they do not value as much. Endogenous provision of private amenities amplifies the mechanism, while public provision of other amenities in part curbs it. We quantify the corresponding impact on well-being inequality. Through the lens of the quantified model, the change in the income distribution between 1990 and 2014 led to neighborhood change and spatial resorting within urban areas that increased the welfare of richer households relative to that of poorer households by an additional 1.7 percentage points on top of their differential income growth.
    JEL: D11 R12 R13 R23
    Date: 2019–08
  3. By: Su, Xuejuan (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Yu, Huayi (Renmin University)
    Abstract: We utilize government sanctioned school acquisitions in Beijing to estimate individuals' willingness to pay for good schools. The spatial and temporal variation in these acquisitions allows us to estimate a hedonic pricing model in the difference-in-difference framework. We find that, when a regular school is acquired by a good school, the average housing price in its designated catchment area increases by seven percent, relative to other regular schools that are not acquired. We also find heterogeneous price effects for different types of acquisitions. In particular, the price premium is larger for fully integrated acquisitions than for partially integrated ones, and larger for vertical acquisitions than for horizontal ones.
    Keywords: school acquisition; housing price; hedonic pricing model; difference-in-difference
    JEL: H75 I28 R21
    Date: 2019–08–12
  4. By: Giuliano, Genevieve; Kang, Sanggyun; Yuan, Quan
    Abstract: One of the most notable recent trends in U.S. metropolitan areas is the rapid growth in warehousing and distribution (W&D) activity. The number of warehousing establishments increased 15%, and warehousing employment increased 33% between 2003 and 2013. At the same time, some operations in some markets appear to be decentralizing (moving away from the central core to the urban peripheries) in search of lower land costs. Although decentralization may contribute to reduced total freight shipping cost, increased distance from urban centers may result in increased truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated externalities: congestion, increased fuel consumption, noise, greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria emissions, accidents, and infrastructure damage. While the logistics business benefits from cost savings, society at large incurs any additional external costs. Understanding how these shifts are affecting truck VMT is essential for developing effective policies for managing truck activities and their associated externalities. Due to the dearth of truck shipment data, this research focuses on the changes in W&D facility and employment location and uses measures of relative location to infer potential truck VMT impacts. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Commodity flow, Distribution support businesses, Freight transportation, Land use, Spatial analysis, Urban goods movement, Vehicle miles of travel, Warehouses
    Date: 2018–07–01
  5. By: Chen, Xin; Qin, Yaohua; Xiao, He; Zhang, Yifei
    Abstract: This paper uses a quasi-natural experiment to study how houseowners’ borrowing costs were affected by the housing value fluctuation in China using a novel micro-level data from an online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform. The impacts on other equilibrium loan variables such as borrowing duration and numbers of lenders are also examined. By taking the housing purchase restriction policy shock as an exogenous event, we employ a difference-in-differences (DD) identification strategy. It is found that the equilibrium interest rate decreased, the growth rate of the deal completion time reduced and the number of investors went up for borrowers with house properties from the cities implementing the restriction policy. It echoes from a further triple differences (DDD) when considering city-specific effect based on samples with houseowners and non-houseowners. In addition, we estimate the heterogeneous effect for both household and city-level characteristics. Our dynamic analysis indicates that effects on houseowners’ P2P borrowing activities persist for 9 months. The channel of the effect was from the collateral effect rather than the pure wealth effect.
    Keywords: P2P, housing price, home-purchase restriction, collateral effect
    JEL: D14 G21 G28 R28
    Date: 2019–07–30
  6. By: Simon Calmar Andersen (Aarhus University); Thorbjørn Sejr Guul (Aarhus University); Maria Knoth Humlum (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: Prior research has shown that time spent in school does not close the achievement gap between students with low and high socioeconomic status (SES). We examine the effect of combining increased instruction time with information to teachers about their students' reading achievements by using a randomized controlled trial. We find that the teachers' baseline beliefs are more important for low-SES students' academic performance, that the intervention makes the teachers update these beliefs, andnot leastthat the intervention improves the reading skills of low-SES students and thereby reduces the achievement gap between high- and low-SES students. The results are consistent with a model in which the teachers' beliefs about the students' reading skills are more important to low- than high-SES students, while at the same time, the teachers' beliefs are subject to information friction and Bayesian learning.
    Keywords: information, learning, field experiment
    JEL: I24 I28 D83
    Date: 2019–08
  7. By: Naoki FUJIWARA (Associate Professor, Faculty of Regional Development Studies, Otemon Gakuin University, Osaka, Japan)
    Abstract: Urbanization has progressed in parallel with rapid economic development in Asia, and people living in the region’s megacities face severe urban environmental problems, with the water-environment problem being especially serious. Such cities must develop the infrastructure to provide clean water and process sewage in densely populated areas. Meanwhile, water-supply and sewerage services in Japan are conducted by municipalities as a public service, but their revenues are shrinking in response to a decreasing birthrate, an aging population, and the waterconservation movement. In this study, we investigated the overseas expansion of Japanese public water services as an effort to improve the living environment in developing Asian countries and to advance the sustainability of public water services. The research methods included scrutinizing preliminary research, conducting case studies through text analysis of materials issued by national and local governments, and conducting interviews with municipalities. We examined four urban municipal water services, including ones in Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Kitakyushu, that developed publicprivate cooperative platform associations for expanding abroad. As a result of the research, we first identified the overseas expansion of public water services as a collaborative model—based on an international inter-city network—for solving urban problems. Japan’s water-related public and private sectors have a motivation to share their technologies and experiences of solving urban waterrelated environmental problems with the growing cities of Asia, but it is difficult for Japanese public water services to sustain a unilateral contribution to developing countries because their business environment is becoming less hospitable in a shrinking domestic market. Therefore, with national governmental support, major municipal water services in Japan have aimed to expand their business abroad to achieve regional economic development, relying on trust based on the solidarity and cooperation of the international cities to reduce the transaction cost of international water-related project development. Second, we clarify that the public-private cooperative platform established by the leadership of municipalities enhances the accountability and transparency of the overseas expansion projects of public water services. Municipalities hold themselves accountable to be fair to citizens and stakeholders. The Public and private cooperative platform established by Japanese public water service, as an intermediate organization, not only develops the implementation capacity but also strengthens accountability and transparency of the international public water service 5 expansion projects’ sharing information about the water-environment problems of each cities and selecting project partner companies. Third, we find that the international city networks that municipalities build are evolving from one-to-one mutual networks to multilateral networks. To date, municipalities have developed international sister-city networks that centered more on cultural and educational administrative exchanges. Recent years, however, have witnessed the rise of more pragmatic city networks that focus on problem-solving city liaisons. Municipalities are realizing the efficiency of mutual project-making and of participating in international associations or organizations of cities for specific purposes. They even organize international meetings or conferences at which they seek business partner cities, promote their environment technologies to their region, and enhance their brand images as regional technology hubs.
    Keywords: cooperative platform, accountability, multilateral network
    JEL: L32 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–09
  8. By: Sida Peng
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new method to identify leaders and followers in a network. Prior works use spatial autoregression models (SARs) which implicitly assume that each individual in the network has the same peer effects on others. Mechanically, they conclude the key player in the network to be the one with the highest centrality. However, when some individuals are more influential than others, centrality may fail to be a good measure. I develop a model that allows for individual-specific endogenous effects and propose a two-stage LASSO procedure to identify influential individuals in a network. Under an assumption of sparsity: only a subset of individuals (which can increase with sample size n) is influential, I show that my 2SLSS estimator for individual-specific endogenous effects is consistent and achieves asymptotic normality. I also develop robust inference including uniformly valid confidence intervals. These results also carry through to scenarios where the influential individuals are not sparse. I extend the analysis to allow for multiple types of connections (multiple networks), and I show how to use the sparse group LASSO to detect which of the multiple connection types is more influential. Simulation evidence shows that my estimator has good finite sample performance. I further apply my method to the data in Banerjee et al. (2013) and my proposed procedure is able to identify leaders and effective networks.
    Date: 2019–08
  9. By: Doris, Aedin (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); O'Neill, Donal (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); Sweetman, Olive (National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
    Abstract: This paper uses a rich set of student background characteristics, including early measures of cognitive and non-cognitive skills, to estimate the value added of second-level schools in Ireland. Although there are high performing schools in both raw and value-added terms, there is a considerable degree of reranking of schools when we move to value added. In many cases the best performing schools in raw terms are not the best in value-added terms. In addition we find that parents tend to choose schools on the basis of raw results rather than value added. We estimate that if parents chose the best value-added school from among the set of feasible schools, then this reallocation of students would increase academic achievement substantially.
    Keywords: school value added, school choice
    JEL: I21 I28
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Boarnet, Marlon; Bostic, Raphael; Rodnyansky, Seva; Santiago-Bartolomei, Raúl; Williams, Danielle
    Abstract: As the construction and usage of rail transit proliferates in cities across the world, concerns abound about impacts on surrounding neighborhoods – including gentrification and displacement. Los Angeles County has seen a massive rail transit buildout—from zero to 93 stations along six lines—in 25 years. This boom has led to a prevailing perception that Los Angeles’ rail transit development causes an influx of high-income residents and an outflow of low-income residents near rail stations. This policy brief summarizes research that tests this perception by answering the following questions related to rail transit and household moves: Do rail transit stations affect residential move rates in surrounding neighborhoods? And, if so, then are lower income or long-term residents disproportionally displaced from the neighborhood? View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Demographics, Households, Low income groups, Mobility, Neighborhoods, Population movements, Rail transit, Rail transit stations, Transit oriented development, Urban population
    Date: 2018–08–01
  11. By: Essi Eerola; Oskari Harjunen; Teemu Lyytikäinen; Tuukka Saarimaa
    Abstract: Housing transfer taxes are fiscally important in many countries despite evidence of substantial welfare losses found in several quasi-experimental studies. Research designs used in this prior literature are prone to attenuation bias due to spillovers from mobility or trading across control and treatment groups. We account for these spillovers by combining quasi-experimental empirical analysis with a one-sided housing market model where households act as both buyers and sellers. Using a Finnish tax reform and total population register data, we find that an increase in the transfer tax has a significant negative effect on household mobility. We calibrate our theoretical model to match the mobility rates in our data and our quasi-experimental estimate. In our setting, relying only on the quasi-experiment and ignoring the spillovers would lead to a 20% underestimation of the effect. We argue that the welfare costs of transfer taxes are larger than previously thought.
    Keywords: household mobility, spillover, transfer tax, welfare cost
    JEL: H21 R21 R23
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Eric Brunner (University of Connecticut); Shaun Dougherty (Vanderbilt University); Stephen Ross (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of admission to 16 stand-alone technical high schools within the Connecticut Technical High School System (CTHSS) on student educational and labor market outcomes. To identify the causal effect of admission on student outcomes, we exploit the fact that CTHSS utilizes a score-based admissions system and identify the effect of admission using a regression discontinuity approach. We find that male students attending one of the technical high schools are approximately 10 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school and 8 percentage points less likely to attend college, although there is some evidence that the negative effects on college attendance fade over time. We also find that male students attending a technical high school have quarterly earnings that are approximately 31% higher. Analyses of potential mechanisms behind these results reveal that male students that attend a technical high school have higher 9th grade attendance rates and higher 10th grade test scores. We find little evidence that attending a technical high school affects the educational or labor outcomes of women. These effects appear relatively broad based across different types of students in that we find little evidence of heterogeneity in these effects over student attributes like race and ethnicity, free lunch eligibility or residence in a poor, central city school district. However, when distinguishing between students based on the Career and Technical Education (CTE) offerings of the high school that these students likely would have attended, we find that the effects of admission to a CTHSS school are noticeably larger when the counterfactual high school has less CTE offerings.
    Keywords: high school education, impact of education, test scores
    JEL: I21 J16
    Date: 2019–08
  13. By: Amialchuk, Aliaksandr; Ajilore, Gbenga; Egan, Kevin
    Abstract: Individuals often have biased perceptions about their peers' behavior. We use an economic equilibrium analysis to study the role social norms play in substance use decisions. Using a nationally representative dataset, we estimate the effect of misperception about friends' alcohol, smoking, and marijuana use on consumption of these substances by youths in grades 7–12. Overestimation of friend's substance use significantly increases adolescent's own use approximately 1 year later, and the estimated effect is robust across specifications including individual‐level fixed effects regression. The effect size is bigger for boys than for girls. The estimates for those who initially underestimated the norm suggest the possibility of a rebound/boomerang effect.
    Keywords: Substance use, Misperception, Social Norms, Adolescents, Add Health
    JEL: C23 I12 J13
    Date: 2019–02–12
  14. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Gerritse, Michiel
    Abstract: Firms and governments alike frequently court federal government contracts to generate more jobs and trigger economic growth. However, the employment and output impact of government contracts remains controversial. We use georeferenced data on United States (US) federal contracts, distinguishing between the location of the recipient and the location of the activity, for the years 2005-2014 in order to assess the employment and output impacts of federal contracting in metropolitan areas of the US. We resort to a shift-share instrument and precise location-specific fixed effects to estimate the causal impact of spending. Cities that receive more contract expenditure witness an expansion in output – with contracts generating $1.4 per dollar spent – but experience only modest increases in employment. The impact is also constrained geographically and short-lived. The results suggest that, on average, the effects of federal contracting on local economies are modest, meaning that attracting federal contracts may not be an effective urban development strategy.
    Keywords: federal contracting; government spending; jobs; wages; economic growth; urban development
    JEL: E62 O23 R11 R38 R58
    Date: 2018–09–01
  15. By: Giuliano, Genevieve; Showalter, Catherine; Yuan, Quan; Zhang, Rui
    Abstract: To ensure the efficiency and reliability of freight movement, California has invested a great deal in building and maintaining its freight infrastructure, but these investments are far outpaced by the rapid growth in both passenger and freight demand. The result is increased congestion, especially at bottlenecks where delays are severe. This research was motivated by new provisions in the 2016 Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act, which require states to consider the impact of significant freight congestion or delays on the broader transportation system. However, conventional methods of evaluating freight congestion, such as identifying freight bottlenecks, focus on how these bottlenecks affect freight transport. This research provides a statewide assessment of freight movement on all traffic congestion. It defines freight impact areas as severely congested roadway corridors with high volumes of trucks. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bottlenecks, Data analysis, Freight terminals, Freight trains, Freight transportation, Railroad grade crossings, Traffic congestion, Traffic data, Traffic delays
    Date: 2018–06–01
  16. By: Sophia Kan; Stephan Klasen
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of lifting primary school fees on educational attainment in Uganda. After the abolishment of school fees in 1997, the enrollment rate more than doubled. Two decades later, however, we know little about the effect of the policy on educational attainment. With recent data on eight cohorts exposed to free education, we analyze the impact of the policy on years of completed primary school, completion of primary school, and transitioning to secondary school. We use a straightforward regression analysis with cohort dummies and household fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that lifting school fees had no effect on the years of primary school achievement and the likelihood of primary school completion. We find some weak evidence that the likelihood of those who completed primary education to start secondary school increased after UPE.
    Keywords: education; school fees; Uganda; UPE
    JEL: I21 I28 O55
    Date: 2018–02–23
  17. By: John Eric Humphries (Yale University); Nicholas Mader (Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago); Daniel Tannenbaum (University of Nebraska); Winnie van Dijk (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: Each year, more than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them. Many cities have recently implemented policies aimed at reducing the number of evictions, motivated by research showing strong associations between being evicted and subsequent adverse economic outcomes. Yet it is difficult to determine to what extent those associations represent causal relationships, because eviction itself is likely to be a consequence of adverse life events. This paper addresses that challenge and offers new causal evidence on how eviction affects financial distress, residential mobility, and neighborhood quality. We collect the near-universe of Cook County court records over a period of seventeen years, and link these records to credit bureau and payday loans data. Using this data, we characterize the trajectory of financial strain in the run-up and aftermath of eviction court for both evicted and non-evicted households, finding high levels and striking increases in financial strain in the years before an eviction case is filed. Guided by this descriptive evidence, we employ two approaches to draw causal inference on the effect of eviction. The first takes advantage of the panel data through a difference-in-differences design. The second is an instrumental variables strategy, relying on the fact that court cases are randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. We find that eviction negatively impacts credit access and durable consumption for several years. However, the effects are small relative to the financial strain experienced by both evicted and non-evicted tenants in the run-up to an eviction filing.
    Keywords: evictions, financial distress, poverty
    JEL: J01 H00 I30 R30
    Date: 2019–07
  18. By: Karner, Alex; Rowangould, Dana; London, Jonathan
    Abstract: Disparities in the distribution of transportation system benefits and burdens are significant and have persisted despite the efforts of many to reduce or eliminate them. Although transportation plans and projects must be assessed for their distributive effects in accordance with U.S. laws and regulatory guidance, these analyses rarely uncover findings that result in changes to decisions already made or the creation of entirely new projects or policies. This outcome is due in part to limitations associated with transportation governance institutions including metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), specifically those related to inequitable access to political power and representation. It is also due to methodological choices and limitations in the quantitative analyses that are conducted to understand (and ideally avoid or mitigate) impacts. This policy brief summarizes findings from the white paper that assesses academic research and transportation planning practice to provide a shared understanding of the definitions, challenges, and opportunities in this field, thereby enabling often-conflicting parties to collaborate in achieving a common goal: transportation equity. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, Demographics, Environmental quality, Equity (Justice), Land use planning, Mode choice, Policy analysis, Public health, Public transit, Quality of life, Travel behavior
    Date: 2018–06–01
  19. By: Linn, Andrew (Bank of England); Lyons, Ronan (Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: In understanding the determinants of mortgage default, the consensus has moved from an ‘option theory’ model to the ‘double trigger’ hypothesis. Nonetheless, that consensus is based on within-country studies of default. This paper examines the determinants of mortgage default across five European countries, using a large dataset of over 2.3 million active mortgage loans originated between 1991 and 2013 across over 150 banks. The analysis finds support for both elements of the double trigger: while negative equity itself is a relatively small contributor to default, the effect of unemployment, and other variables such as the interest rate, is stronger for those in negative equity. The double trigger, however, varies by country: country-specific factors are found to have a large effect on default rates. For any given level of a loan’s Loan to Value (‘LTV’) ratio, and as LTV changes, borrowers were more sensitive to the interest rate and unemployment in Ireland and Portugal than in the UK or the Netherlands.
    Keywords: Mortgage default; negative equity; double trigger; European Union
    JEL: G21 R31
    Date: 2019–08–02
  20. By: Jofre-Monseny, Jordi; Sánchez-Vidal, Maria; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of large plant closures on the local employment in the affected industry. Specifically, we examine the closure of 45 large manufacturing plants in Spain which relocated abroad between 2001 and 2006. We run differences-in-differences specifications in which locations that experience a closure are matched to locations with similar pre-treatment employment levels and trends. The results show that when a plant closes, for each job directly lost in the plant closure, only between 0.6 and 0.7 jobs are actually lost in the local affected industry. These effects are driven by employment expansions in local incumbent firms and, to a lesser extent, by the creation of new firms in the local industry.
    Keywords: local employment; plant closures; input-output; 2014SGR420; ES/M010341/1
    JEL: J23 R12 R23 R34
    Date: 2018–01–01
  21. By: Sohani Fatehin (Dickinson College, USA); David L. Sjoquist (The Center for State and Local Finance, Georgia State University, USA)
    Abstract: Although the literature on the effect of taxation on economic growth is quite large, no research has been conducted that examines the differential effect of state and local taxes on the level and growth of jobs by skill level. We investigate whether interstate differences in state and local taxes have differential effects on employment by skill level and, in particular, whether low-skill and high-skill jobs could be less responsive to interstate differences in taxes than middle-skill jobs. Using a panel dataset of U.S. states for the period 1977–2012, we estimated several models of the level and share of employment. We find evidence that high-wage employment is positively and statistically significantly associated with taxes per capita, while middle-wage and low-wage employment is either negatively or not statistically significantly related to taxes per capita.
    Date: 2019–07
  22. By: Fredrik Carlsen; Stefan Leknes (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We use survey data to examine whether there are some sociodemographic groups that particularly value the amenities that cities provide. We find that young, single and childless persons and young men with tertiary education are relatively more satisfied with urban areas as place of residence. Being single is more important for women's appraisal of places, while having children matters more for men’s preferences. There is a high degree of agreement between sociodemographic groups on whether a particular amenity represents an urban amenity or an urban disamenity. Higher education, public transportation, culture, leisure activities and shopping opportunities are urban amenities, whereas other public services, safety, living conditions for children and outdoor recreation are urban disamenities.
    Keywords: Place satisfaction; amenities; population size; sociodemographic groups
    JEL: J10 R22 R23
    Date: 2019–07
  23. By: Hemelt, Steven W. (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Schwartz, Nathaniel L. (Tennessee Department of Education); Dynarski, Susan (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: Dual-credit courses expose high school students to college-level content and provide the opportunity to earn college credits, in part to smooth the transition to college. With the Tennessee Department of Education, we conduct the first randomized controlled trial of the effects of dual-credit math coursework on a range of high school and college outcomes. We find that the dual-credit advanced algebra course alters students' subsequent high school math course-taking, reducing enrollment in remedial math and boosting enrollment in precalculus and Advanced Placement math courses. We fail to detect an effect of the dual-credit math course on overall rates of college enrollment. However, the course induces some students to choose four-year universities instead of two-year colleges, particularly for those in the middle of the math achievement distribution and those first exposed to the opportunity to take the course in 11th rather than 12th grade. We see limited evidence of improvements in early math performance during college.
    Keywords: dual-credit courses, college enrollment, college choices, math coursework
    JEL: I21 I23 I24 I28
    Date: 2019–07
  24. By: Acosta, Camilo; Lyngemark, Ditte Håkonsson
    Abstract: While multi-establishment firms are an important part of the economy, little is known about their spatial organization. In this article, we study how the location and the occupational composition of establishments within firms has changed during the last 36 years. Using Danish administrative employer-employee data, we present a series of stylized facts regarding the spatial internal organization of firms. We show that the average number of establishments at the firm level increased by 36% during this period. Moreover, the average distance of the establishments and workers to their headquarters has increased by more than 200%. These changes are mainly driven by increases in the average distance of production workers and business service workers, and a higher use of the latter. Finally, we show that the ratio of managers to production and clerical workers within firms has increased, in particular in establishments located in the largest urban municipalities. After presenting the facts, we briefly discuss some of the mechanisms that could be behind these changes.
    Keywords: Spatial organization, agglomeration, multi-establishment firms, occupational composition
    JEL: J20 L22 L23 R00 R30
    Date: 2019–07–16
  25. By: Regmi, Krishna (Montana State University); Henderson, Daniel J. (University of Alabama)
    Abstract: As epidemiological studies have shown that conditions during gestation and early childhood affect adult health outcomes, we examine the effect of local labor market conditions in the year of birth on cognitive development in childhood. To address the endogeneity of labor market conditions, we construct gender-specific predicted employment growth rates at the state level by interacting an industry's share in a state's employment with the industry's national growth rate. We find that an increase in employment opportunities for men leads to an improvement in children's cognitive achievement as measured by reading and math test scores. Additionally, our estimates show a positive and significant effect of male-specific employment growth on children's Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test scores and in home environment in the year of birth. We find an insignificant positive effect of buoyancy in females' employment opportunities on said test scores.
    Keywords: labor market conditions, cognitive ability, child's well-being
    JEL: J20 J21 I20 I30
    Date: 2019–07
  26. By: Thilo R. Huning (University of York); Fabian Wahl (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: How can agricultural inheritance traditions affect structural change and economic development in rural areas? The most prominent historical traditions are primogeniture, where the oldest son inherits the whole farm, and equal partition, where land is split and each heir inherits an equal share. In this paper, we provide a theoretical model that links these inheritance traditions to the local allocation of labor and capital and to municipal development. First, we show that among contemporary municipalities in West Germany, equal partition is significantly related to measures of economic development. Second, we conduct OLS and fuzzy spatial RDD estimates for Baden-Württemberg in the 1950s and today. We find that inheritance rules caused, in line with our theoretical predictions, higher incomes, population densities, and industrialization levels in areas with equal partition. Results suggest that more than a third of the overall inter-regional difference in average per capita income in present-day Baden Württemberg, or 597 Euro, can be explained by equal partition.
    Keywords: Inheritance Rules, Sectoral Change, Regional Economic Development, Baden-Württemberg, Spatial Inequalities
    JEL: D02 D82 H11 H21 N93
    Date: 2019–08
  27. By: Boarnet, Marlon; Wang, Xize
    Abstract: To achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction goals established by California Assembly Bill 32 and California Senate Bill 375 will require policy approaches that address the link between land use and vehicle travel. The extensive literature on land use and travel behavior has documented the association between employment access and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as having one of the largest magnitudes among land use variables. Yet the employment access variables in the research literature have not differentiated between whether drivers have access to jobs dispersed throughout a region or jobs that are clustered in an employment sub-center. Clustering jobs in employment sub-centers can alter the economic geography of a region in ways that could affect trip generation and trip chaining. California metropolitan areas have highly sub-centered employment patterns. Unfortunately, California’s policy makers currently have to use a literature that does not distinguish how access to employment sub-centers might influence VMT differently from access to jobs that are not in sub-centers. This is a policy shortcoming given California’s highly polycentric metropolitan structure. This policy brief summarizes findings from a study to help close the gap by examining how access to jobs in employment sub-centers influences household VMT, using the five-county Los Angeles Combined Statistical Area as an example. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, Employment, Land use, Residential location, Spatial analysis, Travel behavior, Vehicle miles of travel, Work trips
    Date: 2018–07–01
  28. By: Yener Coskun (The University of Sheffield, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Western Bank SheffieldS102TN, United Kingdom); Christos Bouras (University of Piraeus, Department of Banking and Financial Management, Greece); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA, and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE113TU, UK.)
    Abstract: We examine multi-horizon wealth effects across U.S. states over the period of 1975:Q1 to 2012:Q2 by utilizing multi-horizon non-causality testing (Dufour et al., 2006) and multi-horizon causality measurement (Dufour and Taamouti, 2010). We find in both that housing wealth has a more statistically significant, persistent, and widespread impacts than financial wealth on state/aggregate levels. We also find that state-level housing/financial wealth effects show heterogenity accross the U.S. Moreover, except the result of multi-horizon causality measure for financial wealth, the evidence show the presence of financial/housing wealth effects for consumption in longer horizons. State-level evidence suggests that state-level policies may specifically utilize the housing market to support consumption and growth.
    Keywords: Consumption, housing wealth effect, financial wealth effect, multi-step causality
    JEL: C32 E21 E44
    Date: 2019–08
  29. By: Maurice Baslé (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The promotion of cities has usually been done by means of "attractiveness' indicators." "The New Economic Geography" and the book of Richard Florida about "The Rise of the Creative Class" have attempted to justify the choice of indicators of new forms of attractiveness. New dashboards containing indicators of the context (infrastructures and other factors) and, since Florida works (2002, 2005), local creative and innovative power indexes are added to the ancient territorial profiles. The competition between town centers and large and medium size cities is now illustrated with methods of ranking surveyed by OECD (OECD 2006). The emergence of digital societies is now analyzed as a structural change (Merryl, 2016). Some cities could now be beneficiary of the presence of big data actors or big data software and services (Townsend, 2013). From Los Angeles to a lot of so-called "smarter cities"( in Europe and in the world, the sharing and processing of public and private data is supposed to be more and more a key-factor of potential development, so of attractiveness (Batty, 2013, USC, 2014). So we will ask whether the traditional attractiveness' ranking for cities should take account of the context of smarter cities embedded in a digital society. A lot of publications wants to deal with answers to this question (Stock Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62(5), 963–986, 2011, Anthopoulos and Tougountzolou, 2011, Yigitcanlar ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture, 8(1), 53–67, 2011, Cohen, 2013). Taking account of the emergence of the digital society and of the digital divide between cities, this article propose to complement the approach of new cities' attractiveness by adding two following supplementary dimensions of interest in the ranking and outranking of cities. These new dimensions are the location in some cities of a human potential constituted by data scientists (new criterion 1) and the existence of software capacities huge sharing and processing of big data by means of interoperable data platforms (new criterion 2). The article analyzes the relevance of these new criteria and concludes by a call for new empirical testing of the correlation between these criteria and the local productivity and welfare.
    Keywords: Digital society,Attractiveness of urban cities,New criteria for ranking smarter cities,Public and private territorial data sharing,Better city-wide data processing,Interoperable Data platforms.
    Date: 2019
  30. By: Karner, Alex; Rowangould, Dana; Wu, Yizheng; Ogbinedion, Ofurhe; London, Jonathan
    Abstract: There is growing value in developing regional transportation plans that foster safer, healthier, and more environmentally sustainable communities. Greater rates of active travel (walking and biking) can lead to improved health outcomes due to increases in physical activity and air quality improvements, although they also increase risks of traffic injury. Analytical tools that evaluate the distribution of outcomes and the tradeoffs between transportation plan alternatives are needed to inform public debate and ensure that gains in some health outcomes are not being undermined by losses elsewhere. Additionally, there is a need to evaluate the impacts of transportation plans on different demographic groups to work toward more equitable outcomes. This policy brief summarizes findings from a project that created a tool to investigate the distribution of public health impacts resulting from the implementation of a regional transportation plan in the six-county Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) region. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Decision support systems, Equity (Justice), Land use planning, Metropolitan planning organizations, Nonmotorized transportation, Performance measurement, Public health, Regional planning, Transportation planning, Websites (Information retrieval)
    Date: 2018–07–01
  31. By: Falter, Alexander
    Abstract: This paper builds a macro model with a financial sector and a housing market to understand the transmission and effects of macroprudential instruments addressing mortgage credit. The model compares the introduction of a loan-to-value ratio (LTV), a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB)-style rule and sectoral constraints similar to sectoral risk weights. The results show that instruments work largely as intended and are to different extents suitable to dampen credit booms. Moreover, there is a trade-off between effectiveness, i.e. the extent to which instruments are able to dampen credit booms, and efficiency, i.e. the extent to which instruments might exhibit unintended consequences for the financial sector or real economy. General shocks, where housing credit increases as a side effect of larger movements, might warrant the use of the CCyB or also sectoral risk weights to correct for sector specific developments. Simple sectoral shocks can be dealt with or responded to first with sectoral risk weights. The LTV is much more effective than sectoral risk weights in confining credit growth, but shows less efficiency due to strong substitution effects.
    Keywords: Macroprudential Regulation,Mortgage Markets,Housing Markets,Asset Markets,Waterbed Effects
    JEL: E31 G21
    Date: 2019
  32. By: Linda Steinhübel
    Abstract: This paper presents a flexible conceptual and methodological framework to model the dynamics of agricultural transition in the increasingly complex rural-urban interfaces of large cities. Our empirical analysis is based on data of a household survey conducted in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, India. In our analysis we follow a polycentric perspective of urbanization and introduce a two-dimensional variable to measure its effects. Furthermore, we accommodate high input and crop diversity by applying a Structured Additive Regression (STAR) model. Our results show that satellite towns and road infrastructure are the main channels by which urbanization drives agricultural transition. Access to satellite towns appears to be more strongly associated with the modernization of smallholders’ management systems than access to the urban center of Bangalore. Our results suggest that more flexible models are necessary to understand the dynamics of agricultural transition in the surroundings of fastgrowing large towns, the kind of town expected to be dominating the urbanization trend in the coming decades.
    Keywords: Agricultural change; Urbanization; Structured Additive Regression; Geosplines; India
    JEL: Q12 R11 C14
    Date: 2018–08–24
  33. By: Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers
    Abstract: During its first seven years of operation, the Kauffman School had substantial positive impacts on student achievement growth in mathematics, English language arts, and science, beyond the growth achieved by students in other Kansas City public schools.
    Keywords: charter school evaluation, school effectiveness
  34. By: Eugene Braslavskiy (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Firmin Doko Tchatoka (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Virginie Masson (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: This study investigates the role of punishment substitutability in the empirical estimation of the economic model of crime. Using a dynamic panel data model fitted to a panel of Local Government Areas in New South Wales, Australia, we evaluate the effects of financial penalties and imprisonment on the crime rate. Our results show that crime is clearly a dynamic phenomenon, and that failure to incorporate both financial penalties and imprisonment can lead to a misspecfied model. Furthermore, our results vary signifcantly for different crime categories, highlighting the importance of analysing specific crime categories separately.
    Keywords: crime, deterrence, punishment, panel data, aggregation bias
    JEL: K14 C23 C26 C51
    Date: 2019–02
  35. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
    Abstract: We exploit the public good attributes of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and theoretically analyze an aggregate economy of two smart cities in which ICTs are provided in either a decentralized or a centralized manner. We first determine the efficient ICT levels that maximize the aggregate surplus from the provision of ICTs in the two cities. Second, we compute the optimal level of ICT provision in the two cities in a decentralized regime in which spending on the ICTs is financed by a uniform tax on the city residents. Third, we ascertain the optimal level of ICT provision in the two cities in a centralized regime subject to equal provision of ICTs and cost sharing. Fourth, we show that if the two cities have the same preference for ICTs then centralization is preferable to decentralization as long as there is a spillover from the provision of ICTs. Finally, we show that if the two cities have dissimilar preferences for ICTs then centralization is preferable to decentralization as long as the spillover exceeds a certain threshold.
    Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies, Smart City, Spillover, Uncertainty
    JEL: H76 R50 R53
    Date: 2019–05–15
  36. By: Han, Xiao PhD; Ma, Rui PhD; Zhang, H. Michael PhD
    Abstract: Traffic signals, while serving an important function to coordinate vehicle movements through intersections, also cause frequent stops and delays, particularly when they are not properly timed. Such stops and delays contribute to significant amount of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The recent development of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology provides new opportunities to enable better control of vehicles and intersections, that in turn reduces fuel consumption and emissions. In this paper, we propose platoon-trajectory-optimization (PTO) to minimize the total fuel consumption of a CAV platoon through a signalized intersection. In this approach, all CAVs in one platoon are considered as a whole, that is, all other CAVs follow the trajectory of the leading one with a time delay and minimum safety gap, which is enabled by vehicle to vehicle communication. Moreover, the leading CAV in the platoon learns of the signal timing plan just after it enters the approach segment through vehicle to infrastructure communication. We compare our PTO control with the other two controls, in which the leading vehicle adopts the optimal trajectory (LTO) or drive with maximum speed (AT), respectively, and the other vehicles follow the leading vehicle with a simplified Gipps’ car-following model. Furthermore, we extend the controls into multiple platoons by considering the interactions between the two platoons. The numerical results demonstrate that PTO has better performance than LTO and AT, particularly when CAVs have enough space and travel time to smooth their trajectories. The reduction of travel time and fuel consumption can be as high as 40% and 30% on average, respectively, in the studied cases, which shows the great potential of CAV technology in reducing congestion and negative environmental impact of automobile transportation.
    Keywords: Engineering, Connect vehicles, autonomous vehicles, traffic platooning, fuel consumption, vehicle trajectories, trajectory controld
    Date: 2019–06–01
  37. By: Das, Mahamitra; Sarkar, Nityananda
    Abstract: In this paper we have re-investigated the frequently observed anomalous negative relationship between inflation and REIT returns for two most important economies viz., the USA and the UK by addressing two aspects of misspecification: inappropriate functional form and omission of relevant variable. We have found that the anomalous relationship between REIT and inflation appear to proxy for the significant effect of relative price variability on REIT returns in both the countries. Further, it is evidenced that the effect of relative price variability on real estate investment trust (REIT) returns is not stable over time in case of the USA while in the UK there is no structural change in the relationship.
    Keywords: REITs; Relative price variability; Inflation; Structural breaks
    JEL: C58 E3 E31 R33
    Date: 2019–07–19
  38. By: Richardson, Matthew S.; Liu, Pengfei; Eggleton, Michael
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–06–25
  39. By: Stephen F. Jencks; Alyson Schuster; Geoff B. Dougherty; Sule Gerovich; Jane E. Brock; Amy J.H. Kind
    Abstract: In Maryland, residing in a disadvantaged neighborhood and being discharged from a hospital serving a large proportion of disadvantaged neighborhoods are independently associated with increased risk for readmission.
    Keywords: safety net hospitals, readmissions, Maryland, All-Payer program
  40. By: Pedro Drugowick; Paula Pereda
    Abstract: Due to economic and social advances since the 1990s, Brazil became the 7th largest economy in the world in 2012. However, crime rates have not stopped rising since the beginning of the last decade, with Brazil having the 11th largest homicide rate on the planet in that year (UN). In this paper we estimate how much crime harms economic activity from a case study of the city of Manaus, where in 2007 the organized crime group known as “Família do Norte†was created. We analyzed the effects on Manaus’ GDP per capita using the synthetic control method. The comparison between Manaus and its synthetic control in the period after the creation of the criminal group showed that the presence of the criminal faction diminished the city’s GDP by 3% per year. Robustness checks confirmed this result, showing how organized crime can disrupt the country’s economic advances.
    Keywords: Crime and economic activity; Organized crime; Synthetic control method
    JEL: K32 O47 Z18
    Date: 2019–07–29
  41. By: Ruder, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
    Abstract: Workforce development policymakers have access to a growing catalog of training programs evaluated with rigorous randomized controlled trials. This evidence base identifies programs that work in specific geographic and temporal contexts but may not necessarily work in other contexts or at a scale sufficient to meet regional workforce needs. The author examines a sample of recent randomized controlled trials of workforce development programs and reports to what extent this body of evidence informs policymakers about what works at scale. The author finds that most programs are implemented at a small scale, use nonrandom samples from the population of interest, and are concentrated in the most populous urban areas and U.S. states. The author then discusses a method to help state and local policymakers, technical colleges, training providers, and other workforce development organizations adopt evidence-based policies in their local contexts and at scale. The two-step method includes a check on the assumptions in a program’s theory of change and an assessment of the sensitivity of projected results to violations in assumptions such as program completion rates. The author provides an example of the method applied to a hypothetical metropolitan area that seeks to adopt an evidence-based training program for youth with barriers to employment.
    Keywords: workforce development; human capital; skills; provision and effects of welfare programs
    JEL: I38 J08 J24
    Date: 2019–08–01
  42. By: Cheng, Tzu-Chang Forrest; Wang, Tai-Chi; Zhu, Jian-Da
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2019–06–25
  43. By: Jaqueline Oliveira; Paula Pereda
    Abstract: Business-as-usual climate-change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in Brazil. We study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution. We employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers' locational choices through the usual amenity-value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages. Our simulations reveal that migration rates are 5.9% higher, and that half million more people migrate inter regionally under future climate conditions. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate the country's regional inequalities, as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose.
    Keywords: Climate Change; Agriculture Productivity; Internal Migration; Regional Inequality; Spatial Equilibrium.
    JEL: O15 Q54 R13 Q51
    Date: 2019–07–29
  44. By: Jeremy Burke; Julian Jamison; Dean Karlan; Kata Mihaly; Jonathan Zinman
    Abstract: There is little evidence on how the large market for credit score improvement products affects consumers or credit market efficiency. A randomized encouragement design on a standard credit builder loan (CBL) identifies null average effects on whether consumers have a credit score and the score itself, with important heterogeneity: those with loans outstanding at baseline fare worse, those without fare better. Selection, treatment effect, and prediction models indicate the CBL reveals valuable information to markets, inducing positive selection and making credit histories more precise, while keeping credit scores’ predictive power intact. With modest targeting changes, CBLs could work as intended.
    JEL: D12 G14 G21
    Date: 2019–07
  45. By: Head, Keith; Mayer, Thierry; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2017–11–01
  46. By: Palma, Alessandro (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Petrunyk, Inna (Leuphana University Lüneburg); Vuri, Daniela (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of fetal exposure to air pollution on health outcomes at birth in Italy in the 2000s combining information on mother’s residential location from birth certificates with information on PM10 concentrations from air quality monitors. The potential endogeneity deriving from differential pollution exposure is addressed by exploiting as-good-as-random variation in rainfall shocks as an instrumental variable for air pollution concentrations. Our results show that both average levels of PM10 and days above the hazard limit have detrimental effects on birth weight, duration of gestation as well as overall health status at birth. These effects are mainly driven by pollution exposure during the third trimester of pregnancy and further differ in size with respect to the maternal socio-economic status, suggesting that babies born to socially disadvantaged mothers are more vulnerable. Given the non negligible effects of pollution on birth outcomes, further policy efforts are needed to fully protect fetuses from the adverse effects of air pollution and to mitigate the environmental inequality of health at birth.
    Keywords: air pollution, particulate matter, birth weight, pre-term birth, environmental policies
    JEL: I18 J13 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2019–07
  47. By: Dostie, Benoit (HEC Montreal); Javdani, Mohsen (University of British Columbia, Okanagan)
    Abstract: Job training is one of the most important aspects of skill formation and human capital accumulation. In this study we use longitudinal Canadian linked employer-employee data to examine whether white/visible minority immigrants and Canadian-borns experience different opportunities in two well-defined measures of firm-sponsored training: on-the-job training and classroom training. While we find no differences in on-the-job training between different groups, our results suggest that visible minority immigrants are significantly less likely to receive classroom training, and receive fewer and shorter classroom training courses, an experience that is not shared by white immigrants. For male visible minority immigrants, these gaps are entirely driven by their differential sorting into workplaces with less training opportunities. For their female counterparts however, they are mainly driven by differences that emerge within workplaces. We find no evidence that years spent in Canada or education level can appreciably reduce these gaps. Accounting for potential differences in career paths and hierarchical level also fails to explain these differences. We find however that these gaps are only experienced by visible minority immigrants who work in the for-profit sector, with those in the non-profit sector experiencing positive or no gaps in training. Finally, we show that other poor labor market outcomes of visible minority immigrants, including their wages and promotion opportunities, stem in part from these training gaps.
    Keywords: immigrants, wages, firm-sponsored training, linked employer-employee data
    JEL: J24 L22 M53
    Date: 2019–07
  48. By: Indaco, Agustín (CUNY Graduate Center); Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY); Taspinar, Süleyman (Queens College, CUNY)
    Abstract: This paper argues that increases in perceived flood risk entail a negative and persistent shock to local economic activity. Our analysis is based on a rich administrative dataset that contains all business establishments in New York City around the time of hurricane Sandy. Our data also identifies exactly which buildings suffered flooding-related damage due to the hurricane. We find evidence of a persistent reduction in the employment and wage income of establishments that suffered damage, along with higher exit rates. The persistence of the effects is consistent with an upward revision of flood-risk beliefs triggered by the hurricane. These findings suggest that businesses are adapting to the higher flood-risk environment by shifting operations toward safer areas. This adjustment process may mitigate the city-wide costs associated to sea-level rise.
    Keywords: climate change, sea-level rise, economic adaptation, hurricane sandy
    JEL: H56 K42 R33
    Date: 2019–07
  49. By: Sawadgo, Wendiam PM; Zhang, Wendong; Plastina, Alejandro
    Keywords: Resource/ Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–06–25
  50. By: Jung, Jinho; Sesmero, Juan Pablo; Siebert, Ralph
    Keywords: Industrial Organization
    Date: 2019–06–25
  51. By: Huang, Yue (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Kvasnicka, Michael (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)
    Abstract: In the 2015 refugee crisis, nearly one million refugees came to Germany, raising concern that crimes against natives would rise. Using novel county-level data, we study this question empirically in first-difference and 2SLS regressions. Our results do not support the view that Germans were victimized in greater numbers by refugees as measured by their rate of victimization in crimes with refugee suspects. Our findings are of great policy and public interest, and also of material relevance for the broader literature on immigration and crime which considers only crimes per capita or variants thereof, but never actual crimes by foreigners against natives. We show that this shortcoming can lead to biased inference.
    Keywords: immigration, refugees, crimes, crimes against natives
    JEL: F22 J15 K42
    Date: 2019–07

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