nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒08‒12
47 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Of Trees and Monkeys. The evolution of technological specialization of European regions By Mario A. Maggioni; Emanuela Marrocu; Teodora Erika Uberti; Stefano Usai
  2. Housing markets and migration – Evidence from New Zealand By Dean Hyslop; Trinh Le; David C. Maré; Steven Stillman
  3. Search frictions, housing prices and growth By Gaetano Lisi
  4. Choice and Consequence: Assessing Mismatch at Chicago Exam Schools By Joshua D. Angrist; Parag A. Pathak; Román Andrés Zárate
  5. Residential Mobility and Unemployment in the UK By Monica Langella; Alan Manning
  6. Do short-term rental platforms affect housing markets? Evidence from Airbnb in Barcelona By Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López; Jordi Jofre-Monseny; Rodrigo Martínez Mazza; Mariona Segú
  7. Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt By Levina, Iren; Sturrock, Robert; Varadi, Alexandra; Wallis, Gavin
  8. The impact of air pollution and noise on the real estate market. The case of the 2013 European Green Capital: Nantes, France By LE BOENNEC, Rémy; SALLADARRE, Frédéric
  9. House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer By Creina Day
  10. Birth Cohort Size Variation and the Estimation of Class Size Effects By Maximilian Bach; Stephan Sievert
  11. Global bifurcation mechanism and local stability of identical and equidistant regions By Gaspar, José M.; Ikeda, Kiyohiro; Onda, Mikihisa
  12. Sharing a government By Jaume Ventura
  13. Social Networks and Mental Health Outcomes: Chinese Rural-Urban Migrant Experience By Meng, Xin; Xue, Sen
  14. The Effect of a Compressed High School Curriculum on University Performance By Michael Doersam; Verena Lauber
  15. The socio-spatial dimension of educational inequality: A comparative European analysis By Burger, Kaspar
  16. Peer and network effects in medical innovation: the case of laproscopic surgery in the English NHS By Barrenho, E.;; Miraldo, M.;; Propper, C;; Rose, C.;
  17. Retail Shocks and City Structure By Maria Sanchez-Vidal
  18. Damage to the Transportation Infrastructure and Disruption of Inter-firm Transactional Relationships By HOSONO Kaoru; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; ONO Arito; UCHIDA Hirofumi; UESUGI Iichiro
  19. Does Eviction Cause Poverty? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Cook County, IL By John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Ahmed Daniel Tannenbaum; Winnie van Dijk
  20. Lagging-behind Areas as a Challenge to the Regional Development Strategy: What Insights can New and Evolutionary Economic Geography Offer? By Seyed Peyman Asadi; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
  21. Predicting criminal behavior with Levy flights using real data from Bogota By Mateo Dulce Rubio
  22. Do early-ending conditional cash transfer programs crowd out school enrollment? By Martin Wiegand
  23. The Economic Impact of Small Regional Commissions: Evidence from the Delta Regional Authority By Morin, Tyler; Partridge, Mark
  24. College Remediation Goes Back to High School: Evidence from a Statewide Program in Tennessee By Thomas J. Kane; Angela Boatman; Whitney Kozakowski; Christopher Bennett; Rachel Hitch; Dana Weisenfeld
  25. Is competition in the transport industry bad?A welfare analysis of R&D with inter-regional transportation By Kazuhiro Takauchi; Tomomichi Mizuno
  26. Race, Skin Tone, and Police Contact Among Contemporary Teens By Amanda Geller; Ellis Monk
  27. Enhancing Property Rates Administration, Collection and Enforcement in Uganda: The Case of Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) and four other Municipalities By Bakibinga, David; Ngabirano, Dan
  28. Technological regimes and the geography of innovation: a long-run perspective on US inventions By Dario Diodato; Ahmad Andrea Morrison
  29. Should French municipalities foster urban densification to reduce their expenditures? By Kakpo, Eliakim; Le-Gallo, Julie; Breuillé, Marie; Grivault, Camille
  30. Does fiscal decentralization affect regional disparities in health? Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy. By Cinzia Di Novi; Massimiliano Piacenza; Silvana Robone; Gilberto Turati
  31. Transforming Police Surveillance of Kids to the Civic Incorporation of Youth By Vesla M Weaver; Amanda Geller
  32. Household Balance Sheets and Consumption Responses to Income Shocks By Cho, Yunho; Morley, James; Singh, Aarti
  33. An Applied Data Justice Framework: Analysing Datafication and Marginalised Communities in Cities of the Global South By Richard Heeks; Satyarupa Shekhar
  34. Heterogeneous displacement effects of migrant labor supply - quasi-experimental evidence from Germany By Mario Scharfbillig; Marco Weissler
  35. Can academic performance help disadvantaged students to achieve upward educational mobility? By Daniel Salinas
  36. Some stylized facts about deindustrialization in Europe By José Pedro Pontes
  37. Does visible shock update firms' unrelated trade diversity in anticipation of future shock? Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake and expected Nankai Trough Earthquake By Takano, Keisuke
  38. Local entrepreneurship ecosystems and emerging industries: Case Study of Mazowieckie, Poland By OECD
  39. Police Contact in Adolescence: Sexual Minorities and Health Inequality By Amanda Geller; Gabriel Schwartz
  40. Cooperation and the provision of local public goods in remote rural communities By Ward, Patrick S.; Alvi, Muzna F.; Makhija, Simrin; Spielman, David J.
  41. Road Infrastructure and Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Rural China By Zhu, Lifen; Jin, Songqing; Huang, Jikun; Tian, Yongzhong
  42. International Child Sponsorship and School Performance: Evidence from Goma (DRC) By Domenico Rossignoli; Sara Balestri; Simona Beretta; Mario A. Maggioni
  43. When Particulate Matter Strikes Cities. Social Disparities and Health Costs of Air Pollution By Matilde Giaccherini; Joanna Kopinska; Alessandro Palma
  44. Interactive social distance and trust: Different measuring approaches among semi-nomadic pastoralists in Northern Kenya By Parlasca, Martin C.; Hermann, Daniel; Musshoff, Oliver
  45. Narrowing the 'Digital Divide': The Role of Complementarities Between Fixed and Mobile Data in South Africa By Ryan Hawthorne; Lukasz Grzybowski
  46. Exploring encouragement, treatment and spillover effects using principal stratification, with application to a field experiment on teens' museum attendance By Laura Forastiere; Patrizia Lattarulo; Marco Mariani; Fabrizia Mealli; Laura Razzolini
  47. Worker Location Decisions by Skill Level: The Welfare Impacts of Weather Shocks and Industry Composition on the Demand for High and Low Skill Labor By Jayasekera, Deshamithra H W; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

  1. By: Mario A. Maggioni; Emanuela Marrocu; Teodora Erika Uberti; Stefano Usai
    Abstract: The question about how regions develop and evolve along their productive and technological path is central in many scientific fields from international economics, to economic geography, from industrial economics to regional science. Within an evolutionary perspective, we believe that a region is most likely to develop new industries or new technologies, which are closer to its pre-existing specialization. Our research builds on an empirical stream of literature, started by Hausmann and Klinger (2007) and Hidalgo et al. (2007), aimed at tracing the evolution of industrial specialisation at the country level following the evolution of export portfolios. We refocus this line of analysis on the regional European technology/knowledge space along the research avenue started by Kogler et al. (2017). We aim at investigating the pattern and the evolution of regional specialisation in the EU in terms of the interaction of (i) endogenous processes of knowledge recombination and localised technological change, (ii) exogenous technological paradigm shifts and (iii) trans-regional spatial and technological spillovers and networking dynamics. More specifically, our paper maps the technological trajectories of 198 EU regions over the period 1986-2010 by using data on 121 patent sectors in the NUTS2 regions of the 11 most innovative EU countries, plus Switzerland and Norway. We map the knowledge space following two approaches: a micro level one, based on co-classification information contained in patent documents (Engelsman and Van Raan, 1992; Kogler et al., 2017), and a macro level, based on conditional co-specialisations of regions in the same patent classes (Hidalgo et al., 2007). These two representations of the knowledge space serve as a basis for understanding the evolution of regional technological specialization, measured in terms of the sector-region relative technological advantage (RTA), and for modelling its dynamics as a function of spatial, technological and socio-cognitive proximity. Preliminary results show that regional technological paths display a significant level of path dependence in, which the technological specialization is significantly shaped by both localised technological change and recombinant innovation. We also find evidence of local spillover spillovers induced by both geographic and technological proximity.
    JEL: O14 O31 O33 O52 R11 R12 C21
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Dean Hyslop (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David C. Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Steven Stillman (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between local area housing and population size and migrant-status composition, using population data from the 1986–2013 New Zealand Censuses, house sales price data from Quotable Value New Zealand, rent data from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, and building consents data from Statistics New Zealand. Measured at the Territorial Local Authority and Auckland Ward (TAW) area level, we estimate the elasticity of house prices with respect to population is 0.4-0.65, similar but smaller elasticity of apartment prices, but find no evidence of any local population effects on rents. We also estimate the elasticity of housing quantity with respect to population of about 0.9. Although international migration flows are an important contributor to population fluctuations, we find little evidence of systematic effects of international or domestic migrant composition of the local population on prices or quantity. In particular, despite there being a strong correlation between immigration and house price changes nationally, there is no evidence that local house or apartment prices are positively related to the share of new immigrants in an area. Repeating the analysis for more narrowly defined areas within Auckland, we estimate a smaller house price elasticity with respect to population in the range 0–0.15. Finally, our analysis suggests that longer-term housing supply is relatively elastic, and demand inelastic, with respect to price.
    Keywords: Immigration, population, housing markets, house prices, rents
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Gaetano Lisi (Centro di Analisi Economica CREAtività e Motivazioni)
    Abstract: Rising house prices have a positive impact on real GDP through the consumption effect and the construction of new houses (housing investment). Basically, the strength of this positive effect relies on a large share of homeowners (especially regarding the consumption effect). At the same time, however, a greater share of homeowners could encourage unemployment (the so-called “Oswald hypothesis”), thus damaging economic growth. This theoretical paper includes the link between housing tenure and job-search intensity in the relation between housing prices and growth. The main finding of this work is that homeownership may either reinforce or resize the effect of housing prices on economic growth.
    Keywords: housing prices, new construction, growth, homeownership, search frictions
    JEL: O18 R11 R21 R31 R32 J64
    Date: 2019–07
  4. By: Joshua D. Angrist; Parag A. Pathak; Román Andrés Zárate
    Abstract: The educational mismatch hypothesis asserts that students are hurt by affirmative action policies that place them in selective schools for which they wouldn't otherwise qualify. We evaluate mismatch in Chicago's selective public exam schools, which admit students using neighborhood-based diversity criteria as well as test scores. Regression discontinuity estimates for applicants favored by affirmative action indeed show no gains in reading and negative effects of exam school attendance on math scores. But these results are similar for more- and less-selective schools and for applicants unlikely to benefit from affirmative-action, a pattern inconsistent with mismatch. We show that Chicago exam school effects are explained by the schools attended by applicants who are not offered an exam school seat. Specifically, mismatch arises because exam school admission diverts many applicants from high-performing Noble Network charter schools, where they would have done well. Consistent with these findings, exam schools reduce Math scores for applicants applying from charter schools in another large urban district. Exam school applicants' previous achievement, race, and other characteristics that are sometimes said to mediate student-school matching play no role in this story.
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2019–08
  5. By: Monica Langella; Alan Manning
    Abstract: The UK has suffered from persistent spatial differences in unemployment rates for many decades. A low responsiveness of internal migration to unemployment is often argued to be an important cause of this problem. This paper uses UK census data to investigate how unemployment affects residential mobility using very small areas as potential destinations and origins and four decades of data. It finds that both in- and out-migration are affected by unemployment, although the effect on in-migration appears to be stronger - but also that there is a very high 'cost of distance' so most moves are very local. Using individual longitudinal data we show that the young and the better educated have a lower cost of distance but that sensitivity to unemployment shows much less variability across groups.
    Keywords: residential mobility, regional inequality, unemployment
    JEL: Z1 J01 R10 J21
    Date: 2019–07
  6. By: Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Jordi Jofre-Monseny (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Rodrigo Martínez Mazza (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Mariona Segú (RITM, Université Paris Sud, Paris Saclay)
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the impact of the arrival and expansion of Airbnb on housing rents and prices in the city of Barcelona. Examining highly detailed data on rents and both transaction and posted prices, we use several econometric approaches that exploit the exact timing and geography of Airbnb activity in the city. These include i) panel fixed-effects models with neighborhood-specific time trends, ii) an instrumental variable shift-share approach in which tourist amenities predict where Airbnb listings will locate and Google searches predict when listings appear, and iii) event-study designs. For the average neighborhood in terms of Airbnb activity, our preferred results imply that rents have increased by 1.9%, while transaction (posted) prices have increased by 5.3% (3.7%). The estimated impact in neighborhoods with high Airbnb activity is substantial. For neighborhoods in the top decile of Airbnb activity distribution, rents are estimated to have increased by 7%, while increases in transaction (posted) prices are estimated at 19% (14%).
    Keywords: Housing markets, short-term rentals, Airbnb
    JEL: R10 R20 R31
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Levina, Iren (Bank of England); Sturrock, Robert (Bank of England); Varadi, Alexandra (Wadham College, Oxford); Wallis, Gavin (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper presents an approach to modelling the flow and the stock of mortgage debt, using loan‑level data. Our approach allows us to consider different macroeconomic scenarios for the housing market, lenders’ and borrowers’ behaviour, and different calibrations of macroprudential policy interventions in a consistent way. This, in turn, allows us to take a forward-looking view about potential risks stemming from the distribution of mortgage debt, as well as assess the impact of potential macroprudential policies in a forward‑looking manner.
    Keywords: Mortgage market; housing market; macroprudential policy; loan‑level data; flow model; stock model
    JEL: D04 G21 R20 R21 R31
    Date: 2019–07–19
  8. By: LE BOENNEC, Rémy; SALLADARRE, Frédéric
    Abstract: In this paper, we aim to demonstrate the way air pollution and noise may affect the well-being of the inhabitants of Nantes, France, designated the European Green Capital in 2013. We use a database compiling certain attributes of the houses that exchanged hands and their price. In order to understand the complex relationships that can exist between explanatory variables and housing price, we consider not only the direct effects of air pollution and noise on the price of around 3,000 houses sold in Nantes and its metropolitan area from 2002 to 2008, but also the way some location attributes of the dwellings may affect air pollution and noise. We demonstrate that even if air pollution may be affected by some location characteristics of the house, this variable has no significant impact on the price, in the end. Noise is affected by the location of the house and exerts some significant effect on housing price. However, whilst air pollution does not impact at a global level, people who have lived in an air polluted county before coming to Nantes are sensitive to air quality, whereas those who come from a low air polluted county tend to choose low noise exposure dwellings.
    Keywords: air pollution, noise pollution, housing location, housing price
    JEL: D62 Q51 Q53 R31
    Date: 2017–08
  9. By: Creina Day
    Abstract: Real house prices and household debt have risen in Australia amid growing concern of risks to the economy from a market correction. An intertemporal model of the housing market with household retirement and debt explains three observations relating to the post-GFC housing boom. First, people are remaining households for longer, which combined with strong population growth, has elevated the rate of household formation. Second, households are working for longer. Third, households are carrying more debt for longer: 1 in 2 home-owners aged 55-64 years have a mortgage, more than one third of whom are over-indebted. Ensuring that the rate of land release keeps pace with the rate of household formation and that banks maintain improved lending standards may help alleviate upward pressure on real house prices and contain risk for a given level of debt. Lower current real house prices indicate the burst of a speculative bubble in the absence of a fall in the present discounted value of real wages or rate of household formation relative to housing supply. The influence on house prices of ageing households, low interest rates, first home buyer grants, negative gearing and capital gains taxation calls for responsible lending.
    Keywords: GFC, house prices, household debt, population
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Maximilian Bach; Stephan Sievert
    Abstract: We present evidence that the practice of holding back poorly performing students affects estimates of the impact of class size on student outcomes based on within-school variation of cohort size over time. This type of variation is commonly used to identify class size effects. We build a theoretical model in which cohort size is subject to random shocks and students whose performance falls below a threshold are retained. Our model predicts that initial birth cohort size is mechanically related to the grade-level share of previously retained students once these cohorts reach higher grades. This compositional effect gives rise to an upward bias in class size effects exploiting variation in birth cohort size. Using administrative data on school enrollment for all primary schools in one federal state of Germany, we find support for this compositional effect. Correcting for the resulting bias in a unique dataset on standardized test scores for the full student population of third graders, we find that not only are smaller classes beneficial for language and math test scores, but also for reducing grade repetition.
    Keywords: Class size effects, Quasi-experimental evidence, Student achievement, Primary school
    JEL: I21 I21 I29
    Date: 2019
  11. By: Gaspar, José M.; Ikeda, Kiyohiro; Onda, Mikihisa
    Abstract: We provide an analytical description of possible spatial patterns in economic geography models with three identical and equidistant regions by applying results from General Bifurcation mechanisms. We then use Pflüger's (2004, Reg Sci Urb Econ) model to show what spatial patterns can be uncovered analytically. As the freeness of trade increases, a uniform distribution undergoes a direct bifurcation that leads to a state with two identical large regions and one small region. Before this bifurcation, the model encounters a minimum point above which a curve of dual equilibria with two small identical regions and one small region emerges. From further bifurcations, the equilibrium with one large region encounters agglomeration in a single region, while the equilibrium with one small region encounters a state with two evenly populated regions and one empty region. A secondary bifurcation then leads to partial agglomeration with one small region and one large region. We show that an asymmetric equilibrium with populated regions cannot be connected with other types of equilibria. Therefore, an initially asymmetric state will remain so and preserve the ordering between region sizes.
    Keywords: bifurcation, economic geography, multi-regional economy, footloose entrepreneur
    JEL: R10 R12 R23
    Date: 2019–07–11
  12. By: Jaume Ventura
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple theoretical framework to study a set of regions, each with its own regional government, who share a union or central government. These governments must decide whether to implement or discard a large number of projects that produce local beneÖts for the region that implements them, and externalities for the rest of the regions. Conáict or disagreement arises since di§erent regions value projects di§erently. The classic assignment problem consists of deciding who decides these projects, either the union or the regional governments. It is well known that regional governments are insensitive to externalities. The key observation here is that the union government is insensitive to local benefits. Thus, each government maximizes only a piece of the value of projects, and disregards the other one. This observations leads to simple and clear rules for solving the assignment problem.
    Keywords: European integration, centralization and decentralization, public goods, externalities, fiscal federalism.
    JEL: D72 D79 F15 F55 H77
    Date: 2019–07
  13. By: Meng, Xin; Xue, Sen
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, more than 160 million Chinese rural workers have migrated to cities to work. They are separated from their familiar rural networks to work in an unfamiliar, and often hostile environment. Many of them thus face significant mental health challenges. This paper is the first to investigate the extent to which migrant social networks in host cities can mitigate these adverse mental health effects. Using a unique longitudinal survey data of Rural-to-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC), we find that network size matters significantly for migrant workers. Our preferred IV estimates suggest that one standard deviation increase in migrant city networks, on average, reduces the measure of mental health problem by 0.47 to 0.66 of a standard deviation. Similar effects are found among less educated, those working longer hours, and those without access to social insurance. The main channel of the network effect is through boosting confidence and reducing anxiety of migrants.
    Keywords: Mental Health,Social Networks,Migration,China
    JEL: I12 I15 J61
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Michael Doersam (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, 53175 Bonn, Germany); Verena Lauber (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, 10115 Berlin, Germany)
    Abstract: A recent education reform in Germany reduced the duration of academic high school education by one year but left the curriculum, and total class time unchanged. We use a unique data set of university students to investigate the effects of this reduction in years of schooling on academic achievements at the tertiary level. By exploiting variation in the implementation of the reform across school types over time, we isolate the reform effect from cohort, state, and school type effects. Our results suggest that the reform lowers the opportunity costs of schooling and facilitates an earlier labor market entry as we find no detrimental effects while students are one year younger on average.
    Keywords: Education Economics; School Duration; Academic Achievement; Difference-in-Differences
    JEL: I21 H52 C21
    Date: 2019–05–19
  15. By: Burger, Kaspar
    Abstract: Given recent evidence of rising levels of social segregation in European countries, this study uses standardized data from the Program for International Student Assessment (n = 171,159; 50.5% male) to examine the extent to which education systems in Europe are socially segregated and whether social segregation in the school system affects achievement gaps between students of different social origin. Results suggest that the degree of social segregation within education systems varied substantially across countries. Furthermore, multilevel regression models indicate that the effect of socioeconomic status on student achievement was moderately but significantly stronger in more segregated education systems, even after controlling for alternative system-level determinants of social inequality in student achievement. These findings provide original evidence that social segregation in education systems may contribute to the intergenerational transmission of educational (dis)advantage and thus serve to exacerbate wider problems of socioeconomic inequality in Europe.
    Keywords: Cross-national comparison Social segregation Standardized assessment European education systems Multilevel
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Barrenho, E.;; Miraldo, M.;; Propper, C;; Rose, C.;
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of peers and networks on the uptake of innovation in surgery.Using a rich matched patient-surgeon data set covering all relevant surgeons, we construct a wide set of time varying measures of peer behaviour and network effects. Our estimates allow for simultaneity bias and treatment of the network as partially unknown. The findings show the importance of multiple channels in affecting the diffusion of innovative behaviour across individual surgeons.
    Keywords: innovation; peer effects; unknown networks;
    Date: 2019–07
  17. By: Maria Sanchez-Vidal
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the consequences of opening out-of-town big-boxes on the commercial structure of cities. I use a discontinuity in a commercial regulation in Spain that restricts the entry of big-box stores in municipalities of less than 10,000 inhabitants for the period 2003 to 2011. I then use this discontinuity as an instrument for the big-box opening. The results show that three years after the big-box opening, around 15% of the grocery stores in the municipality have disappeared. However, some of the empty commercial premises are taken by other new small retailers in other sectors. As a result, the total number of retail stores in the municipality remains unchanged. These results show that a retail shock in the suburbs does not necessarily empty the city center but can also change only the composition of its commercial activity.
    Keywords: retail shocks, city structure, small stores, commercial activity
    JEL: D2 J22 L81 R1
    Date: 2019–07
  18. By: HOSONO Kaoru; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; ONO Arito; UCHIDA Hirofumi; UESUGI Iichiro
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of an exogenous increase in transportation costs caused by the disruption of a highway due to the Tohoku Earthquake in Japan, on inter-firm transactional relationships and firm performance. We find that as the transit time to partner firms (suppliers and customers) increased due to the disrupted highway, the likelihood of continued transactional relationships decreased. This effect is more pronounced when the corresponding partner is a customer with a lower share of sales. We also find that the disruption to the transactional relationships deteriorates the firms' ex-post business conditions and credit scores.
    Date: 2019–06
  19. By: John Eric Humphries (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Nicholas Mader (Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago); Ahmed Daniel Tannenbaum (Department of Economics, University of Nebraska - Lincoln); Winnie van Dijk (Department of Economics, University of Chicago)
    Abstract: Each year, more than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them. Many cities have recently implemented policies aimed at reducing the number of evictions, motivated by research showing strong associations between being evicted and subsequent adverse economic outcomes. Yet it is difiicult to determine to what extent those associations represent causal relationships, because eviction itself is likely to be a consequence of adverse life events. This paper addresses that challenge and offers new causal evidence on how eviction affects financial distress, residential mobility, and neighborhood quality. We collect the near-universe of Cook County court records over a period of seventeen years, and link these records to credit bureau and payday loans data. Using this data, we characterize the trajectory of financial strain in the run-up and aftermath of eviction court for both evicted and non-evicted households, finding high levels and striking increases in financial strain in the years before an eviction case is filed. Guided by this descriptive evidence, we employ two approaches to draw causal inference on the effect of eviction. The first takes advantage of the panel data through a difference-in-differences design. The second is an instrumental variables strategy, relying on the fact that court cases are randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. We find that eviction negatively impacts credit access and durable consumption for several years. However, the effects are small relative to the financial strain experienced by both evicted and non-evicted tenants in the run-up to an eviction flling.
    Keywords: Evictions, Financial distress, Poverty
    JEL: J01 H00 R38 I30
    Date: 2019–07
  20. By: Seyed Peyman Asadi; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
    Abstract: Lagging-behind areas, as an example of convergence failure within a country, have attracted the attention of many researchers who try to adopt appropriate policies and strategies to overcome the problem of low growth paths. The current study concentrates on policy recommendations in the framework of New Economic Geography and Evolutionary Economic Geography for the lagging regions. The agglomerated industry, as a fundamental element of the new economic geography, has limited the potentials of policy prescriptions for lagging-behind areas. Constructing regional advantages, as a policy in evolutionary economic geography, has helped diversifying the policy options for the lagging-behind regions. However, this approach is faced with multi-level challenges in lagging-behind areas including the lack of critical mass in the case of low related variety and the knowledge base gap between the lagging and prosperous regions. Therefore, the policy should provide a structure for the simulation of external knowledge links and differentiate the nature of various related industries if it is going to be a basis for constructing regional advantages.
    Keywords: Lagging-behind areas, development strategy, New Economic geography, Evolutionary Economic Geography
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2019–07
  21. By: Mateo Dulce Rubio
    Abstract: I use residential burglary data from Bogota, Colombia, to fit an agent-based modelfollowing truncated Lévy flights (Pan et al., 2018) elucidating criminal rational behaviorand validating repeat/near-repeat victimization and broken windows effects. The estimatedparameters suggest that if an average house or its neighbors have never been attacked,and it is suddenly burglarized, the probability of a new attack the next day increases, dueto the crime event, in 79 percentage points. Moreover, the following day its neighborswill also face an increment in the probability of crime of 79 percentage points. This effectpersists for a long time span. The model presents an area under the Cumulative AccuracyProfile (CAP) curve, of 0.8 performing similarly or better than state-of-the-art crimeprediction models. Public policies seeking to reduce criminal activity and its negativeconsequences must take into account these mechanisms and the self-exciting nature ofcrime to effectively make criminal hotspots safer
    Keywords: Criminal behavior, Crime prediction model, Machine learning, Agent-basedmodel
    JEL: K42 H39 C53 C63
    Date: 2019–04–30
  22. By: Martin Wiegand (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper explores how a conditional cash transfer program influences students’ schooling decisions when program payments stop in the middle of the school career. To that end, I examine Mexico’s Progresa, which covered students only until the end of middle school (at age 15) in its early years. The experimental setup permits to study the program’s impact on the probability to continue with high school after middle school. Despite initial randomization, the program itself has likely rendered the respective samples of middle school graduates in the treatment and the control group incomparable. To account for this, I employ a newly developed semiparametric technique that uses a combination of machine learning methods in conjunction with doubly-robust estimation. I find that exposure to Progresa during middle school reduced the probability to transfer to high school by 10 to 14 percentage points. Possible explanations for this effect include parents’ loss aversion, motivation crowding, anchoring, and classroom peer effects.
    Keywords: education, conditional cash transfer, Progresa, machine learning, doubly-robust estimation, loss aversion, motivation crowding, anchoring, classroom peer effects, Mexico
    JEL: I22 I25 O15 J24 D04 D91 C52
    Date: 2019–07–31
  23. By: Morin, Tyler; Partridge, Mark
    Abstract: Factors such as falling U.S. migration rates and diverging regional economic fortunes have heightened interest in place-based policies. Indeed, the U.S. has had many such federal efforts including recently enacted Opportunity Zones. Historically, substantial federal funding has gone to regional economic development programs such as the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). Yet, little is known about the benefits of some of the smaller place-based programs. We extend the literature on regional commissions by analyzing the economic gains to the Delta Regional Authority (DRA). The DRA was founded in 2000 to provide enhanced development aid to 252 Lower Mississippi Valley counties. Using data over the 1997 to 2016 period, we assess the DRA’s impact on employment, income, migration, and poverty. One-to-one propensity score matching is used to generate a set of counterfactual counties. Due to the endogenous nature of the treatment, we instrument for counties being included in the DRA using a dummy for whether the county is within the Lower Mississippi Watershed. The ensuing results reflects an estimation of the intent- to-treat benefits of the DRA. We find that the DRA is associated with income gains and decreases in unemployment; however, no impact on poverty or migration. In sum, the DRA produces economic benefits that greatly exceed its direct costs.
    Keywords: Rural economic development, place-based policy, program evaluation
    JEL: R11 R58
    Date: 2019–06–26
  24. By: Thomas J. Kane; Angela Boatman; Whitney Kozakowski; Christopher Bennett; Rachel Hitch; Dana Weisenfeld
    Abstract: Many U.S. students arrive on college campus lacking the skills expected for college-level work. As state leaders seek to increase postsecondary enrollment and completion, public colleges have sought to lessen the delays created by remedial course requirements. Tennessee has taken a novel approach by allowing students to complete their remediation requirements in high school. Using both a difference-in-differences and a regression discontinuity design, we evaluate the program’s impact on college enrollment and credit accumulation, finding that the program boosted enrollment in college-level math during the first year of college and allowed students to earn a modest 4.5 additional college credits by their second year. We also report the first causal evidence on remediation's impact on students' math skills, finding that the program did not improve students’ math achievement, nor boost students’ chances of passing college math. Our findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of the current model of remediation—whether in high school or college—in improving students’ math skills. They also suggest that the time cost of remediation—whether pre-requisite or co-requisite remediation—is not the primary barrier causing low degree completion for students with weak math preparation.
    JEL: H52 H75 I21 I23 I24 J24
    Date: 2019–08
  25. By: Kazuhiro Takauchi (Faculty of Business and Commerce,Kansai University); Tomomichi Mizuno (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Date: 2019–07
  26. By: Amanda Geller (New York University); Ellis Monk (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Contemporary urban youth are heavily policed, many as early as preadolescence. This policing is characterized by significant racial disparities,with black teens reporting more,and more intrusive experiences. Along history, and growing literature, suggests that police encounters may vary not only by race, but by complexion.We examine skin tone disparities in police contact among a population-based sample of over 1,000 teens from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. We observe a robust “light skin privilege†in which light-skinned adolescents are less likely than others to report contact with the police, and report lower levels of police intrusion. Significant skin tone differences in the probability of reporting stops were also observed within the subsample of black teens (N=504). Differences within the smaller subsample of Hispanic teens were of similar magnitude but statistically insignificant. For both black and Hispanic teens, within-race skin tone differences in stop intrusion were suggestive of a light skin privilege, but statistically significant.
    JEL: D63 K14 K42
    Date: 2019–03
  27. By: Bakibinga, David; Ngabirano, Dan
    Abstract: Uganda was among the first African countries to embrace a decentralised system of government in the 1990s. The objective of this policy was to bring services closer to the people while at the same time enhancing local participation and democracy. The success of decentralisation was, however, greatly dependent on the amount of funds and other resources available to local governments. Before it was scrapped, graduated tax – a form of poll tax – contributed a significant part of local government own source revenue. Following its abolition, local service and local hotel taxes were introduced to compensate for the loss in revenue. Recent studies, however, show that collections from these two taxes are highly inadequate and that local governments are highly dependent on central government grants in running their operations. This undermines the whole essence of decentralisation which, among other things, aims at strengthening the autonomy of local governments. Be that as it may, the recent population surge and boom in urban areas especially has seen property rates emerge as an important source of own source funding for local governments. The challenge, however, is that while property rates present a huge potential for closing the existing funding gap in most local governments, they are for the most part poorly enforced. Using experiences from the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) and four other municipalities, this paper makes a case for reform of the property rates regime in Uganda. This includes proposals for the amendment of the law to remove exemptions for owner-occupied property, imposing rates on vacant urban land, using ICT processes in collection and enforcement, creating revenue collection units in municipalities, and setting up ratepayers associations to engage the urban authorities on effective collection and use of property rates.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Finance, Governance,
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Dario Diodato; Ahmad Andrea Morrison
    Abstract: The geographical distribution of innovative activities is an emerging subject, but still poorly understood. While previous efforts highlighted that different technologies exhibit different spatial patterns, in this paper we analyse the geography of innovation in the very long run. Using a US patent dataset geocoded for the years 1836-2010, we observe that ? while it is true that differences in technologies are strong determinant of spatial patterns ? changes within a technology over time is at least as important. In particular, we find that regional entry follows the technology life cycle. Subsequently, innovation becomes less geographical concentrated in the first half of the life cycle, to then re-concentrate in the second half.
    Keywords: technological regime, spatial patterns of innovation, life cycle, patents, US Economic Geography
    JEL: R11 O11
    Date: 2019–07
  29. By: Kakpo, Eliakim; Le-Gallo, Julie; Breuillé, Marie; Grivault, Camille
    Abstract: The relationship between population density and the costs of public services remains the subject of controversies due to the wide range of estimated elasticities. This disparity derives essentially from measurement and identification issues. Based on a sample of French municipalities for the period 2003-2015, this paper addresses both considerations and provides further evidence in support of a non-linear relationship between density and public expenditures per capita. First, we measure density differently from the traditional literature and consider two metrics. Second, to tackle endogeneity, we exploit historical records of population, settlements and soil characteristics as an exogenous source of variation. Our preferred specifications imply elasticity estimates equal to -0.13 and 0.12 for per capita current and capital expenditures respectively. Under a cubic B-spline specification, current spending initially decreases with density (up to 20 inhabitants plus jobs per ha) before increasing. In contrast, capital spending features several return points at 20, 30 and 50 inhabitants plus jobs per ha respectively
    Keywords: local public finance; population and employment density; capital expenditures; current expenditures
    JEL: H72 R11 R51
    Date: 2019–02
  30. By: Cinzia Di Novi; Massimiliano Piacenza; Silvana Robone; Gilberto Turati (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: Recent theories on fiscal decentralization support the view that sub-national governments who finance a larger share of their spending with taxes raised locally by themselves are more accountable towards their citizens. Whilst evidence on improvements in spending efficiency is relatively common, little is known about the effects on inequalities amongst the population. In this paper we exploit a reform aimed at increasing regional tax autonomy in Italy to provide quasi-experimental evidence on the impact of fiscal decentralization on health disparities between- and within-regions. Our findings, robust to a number of robustness checks, support the view that fiscal decentralization does not impact on between-regional inequalities but can help to reduce inequalities within regions. However, this last effect depends on the degree of economic development: richer regions are better than poorer ones in containing inequalities.
    Keywords: fiscal decentralization, regional governments, healthcare policy, health inequalities.
    JEL: H75 I14 I15 I18 R50
    Date: 2019–07
  31. By: Vesla M Weaver (Johns Hopkins University); Amanda Geller (New York University)
    Abstract: The standard account of policy feedback scholarship centers on self-reinforcing dynamics of social policies: the provision of resources not only promotes economic security and well being, it also enables the individuals and communities directly affected by the policies to engage more constructively with state actors. Criminal justice policies have typically had the opposite effect: they embolden those with interests in a punitive policy agenda, while disempowering those most affected by the policies.This is of particular concern for children and adolescents, whose first encounters with state actors often come through police contact, and carry adverse social and political consequences at a critical developmental stage. In this article we reimagine youth engagement with the state, not only by substantially reducing police surveillance of young people, but by promoting youth attachment to civic life. We call for an investment in institutions, both state-based and community-based, that reinforce citizenship and civic health.
    Keywords: policing, criminal justice, youth, civic engagement, policy feedbacks, community-building, race-class subjugation
    JEL: D63 K14 K42
    Date: 2019–04
  32. By: Cho, Yunho; Morley, James; Singh, Aarti
    Abstract: We examine how households with different homeownership status and balance sheet positions respond to income shocks using panel datasets for the United States and Australia. Mortgaged homeowners and households with high debt and low levels of liquid assets have larger responses to transitory income shocks, especially in the United States. Time-varying estimates suggest that mortgaged homeowners exhibited particularly high sensitivity to transitory income shocks when debt levels were high during the Great Recession in the United States and the recent housing boom in Australia. Meanwhile, in both countries, households with higher wealth have more consumption insurance against permanent income shocks.
    Keywords: Household balance sheets; Transitory income shocks; Permanent in-come; Consumption insurance.
    Date: 2019–07
  33. By: Richard Heeks; Satyarupa Shekhar
    Abstract: Rapid recent growth in the role of data within international development has meant analysis of this phenomenon has been lagging; particularly, analysis of broader impacts of real-world initiatives. Addressing this gap through a focus on data’s increasing presence in urban development, this paper makes two contributions. First – drawing from the emerging literature on “data justice” – it presents an explicit, systematic and comprehensive new framework that can be used for analysis of datafication. Second, it applies the framework to four initiatives in cities of the global South that capture and visualise new data about marginalised communities: residents living in slums and other informal settlements. Analysing across procedural, rights, instrumental and structural dimensions, it finds these initiatives deliver real incremental gains for their target communities. But it is external actors and wealthier communities that gain more; thus increasing relative inequality.
    Date: 2018
  34. By: Mario Scharfbillig (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Marco Weissler (Institut fuer Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Goethe University Frankfurt)
    Abstract: We provide estimates of the effect of migrant labor supply on resident employment. We exploit variation in the number of asylum seekers eligible to the suspension of a major hiring restriction implemented in a subset of German counties. Our difference-in-difference design allows us to provide evidence from a labor supply shock of migrants on local markets net of their additional spending at arrival that might mask labor market displacement effects. Despite this, we do not find a negative effect on employment growth of natives but only on other foreign residents. This also holds for unskilled employees. Therefore, our findings can be interpreted as the consequence of differential substitutability of different subgroups, where asylum seekers are substitutes to other immigrants but not natives - even when they are similarly qualified.
    Keywords: asylum seeker, displacement, skill complementarity
    JEL: J22 J61 R23
    Date: 2019–07–30
  35. By: Daniel Salinas
    Abstract: During the past century, access to education increased in countries all over the world. Up until the early decades of the 20th century, people attended school for only a few years. Towards the end of the century, adults in high-income countries completed 12 years of schooling, on average. Today in OECD countries, a larger share of the population than ever before completes tertiary education. For many, especially socio-economically disadvantaged students whose parents had attained only low levels of education, this expanded access to education has led to upward educational mobility – attaining a higher level of education than their parents did.But just as economic growth does not necessarily reduce income inequality, so the expansion of access to education does not automatically result in greater equity in educational attainment. For that to happen, disadvantaged students need to benefit as much as or more than advantaged students. A recent PISA report, Equity in Education, explores how upward educational mobility has changed over recent decades. It finds that, despite the expansion of access, socioeconomic disparities in the completion of tertiary education remain large. However, the report also shows that when students with low-educated parents perform at high levels by age 15, as measured by PISA, their chances of completing tertiary education improve considerably.
    Date: 2019–08–27
  36. By: José Pedro Pontes
    Abstract: This paper highlights three main trends concerning the evoulution of the proportion of manufacturing in overall productive activity across European countries. Firstly, we are able to detect a non monotonic spatial pattern with deindustrialization prevailing both close to the European core and in remote areas. Secondly, industrialization appears to be faster in countries newly admitted to the European Union, whose trade costs with the European core are falling sharply. Finally, a specialization in high-tech, value added intensive sectors seems to prevent deindustrialization of core European countries but it has not the same effect on those which joined the European Union more recently.
    Keywords: Manufacturing, Deindustrialization, Location
    JEL: L6 O3 R3
    Date: 2019–07
  37. By: Takano, Keisuke
    Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the interrelationship between the update of risk perception of expected disaster through the actual disaster damage and the change in the spatial distribution of inter-firm transactional networks (supply chains) around the hazardous area of the expected Nankai Trough Earthquake after the Great East Japan Earthquake from 2009 to 2017. By adopting the propensity score matching and the difference-in-difference (-indifferences) method, this study estimates the effects of tsunami damage on the magnitude of the spatial dispersion of the supply chain network stemmed from risk perception. The results show that the existence of suppliers in the Nankai Trough area per se did not or marginally lead to the supply chain dispersion regardless of the size of firms, while the supply chains of medium-size firms who had suppliers in both the Nankai Trough area and the damaged area of the Great East Japan Earthquake was spatially dispersed after 2011.
    Keywords: Interregional trade, Supply chain, Disaster risk, Spatial pattern, Diversity
    JEL: R11 R12 Q54
    Date: 2019–06
  38. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report examines the local entrepreneurship ecosystem of the Mazowieckie region in Poland and its capacity to promote productivity upgrading and industrial renewal. It forms part of the OECD’s work stream on local entrepreneurship ecosystems and emerging industries.
    Date: 2019–08–06
  39. By: Amanda Geller (New York University); Gabriel Schwartz (Harvard University)
    JEL: D63 K14 K42
  40. By: Ward, Patrick S.; Alvi, Muzna F.; Makhija, Simrin; Spielman, David J.
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2019–06–25
  41. By: Zhu, Lifen; Jin, Songqing; Huang, Jikun; Tian, Yongzhong
    Keywords: Agribusiness
    Date: 2019–06–25
  42. By: Domenico Rossignoli; Sara Balestri; Simona Beretta; Mario A. Maggioni
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the effect of an International Child Support (ICS) program, implemented in ten primary schools located in the outskirts of Goma (Congo, DR), on school performances. Using original micro data in a sample of 309 children (121 treated and 188 control), we explore whether the ICS program impacts on a broad set of alternative educational outcomes - namely, performance scores in 4 different subjects (plus total score), failure rates and school drop-out rates - through a Difference-in-Differences approach. The results show that sponsored children report lower drop-out rates and failure rates with respect to their control peers and, while lagging behind before the program started, in two school years they catch-up in all subjects. Results are robust to the implementation of Coarsened Exact Matching that exploits the structure of the data to produce unbiased estimates along with bounded ex-post balancing.
    JEL: C93 D04 I25
    Date: 2019
  43. By: Matilde Giaccherini (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Joanna Kopinska (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Alessandro Palma (University of Naples Parthenope & CEIS University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: We investigate unequal effects of daily particulate matter (PM) concentrations on Italian hospitalizations by exploiting daily episodes of public transportation strikes as an instrumental variable for pollution exposure. We find that higher PM concentrations increase the number of urgent respiratory admissions, with a larger penalty for the young, the elderly, the less educated and migrants from low income countries. Moreover, we show that hospitalizations resulting from higher PM concentrations are not only more likely to occur, but in the case of asthma and COPD, they are also more complex. In order to appreciate the heterogeneity of our results, we show how municipalities with different age structures and PM exposure levels face a similar hospitalization burden. Our study suggests that effective mitigation policies should account for the socio-economic gradient in the health effects of air pollution.
    Keywords: health effects of air pollution, environmental inequality, public transportation strikes, hospitalization costs
    JEL: I14 I18 J45 J52 L91 Q53 R41
    Date: 2019–08–01
  44. By: Parlasca, Martin C.; Hermann, Daniel; Musshoff, Oliver
    Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2019–06–25
  45. By: Ryan Hawthorne; Lukasz Grzybowski
    Abstract: We study substitution between fixed and mobile broadband services in South Africa using survey data on 134,000 individuals between 2009 and 2014. In our discrete-choice model, individuals choose fixed or mobile voice and data services in a framework that allows them to be substitutes or complements. We find that voice services are complements on average but data services are substitutes. However, many consumers see data services as complements. Our results show that having a computer and access to an internet connection at work or school are more important than reducing mobile data prices by 10% in driving broadband penetration.
    Keywords: fixed-to-mobile substitution, mobile broadband, fixed broadband
    JEL: L13 L43 L96
    Date: 2019
  46. By: Laura Forastiere; Patrizia Lattarulo; Marco Mariani; Fabrizia Mealli; Laura Razzolini
    Abstract: This paper revisits results from a field experiment conducted in Florence, Italy to study the effects of incentives offered to high school teens to motivate them to visit art museums and to identify best practices to transform this behavior into a long run cultural consumption. Students belonging to a first group of classes receive a flier with basic information and opening hours of a main museum in Florence, Palazzo Vecchio. Students in a second group of classes receive the flyer and a short presentation conducted by an art expert. Students in a third group of classes, in addition to the flyer and the presentation, receive also a nonfinancial reward in the form of extra-credit points towards their school grade. Taking a Principal Stratification approach, we explore the causal pathways that may lead students to increase their future museum attendance. Within the strata defined by compliance to the three forms of encouragement, we estimate associative and dissociative principal causal effects, that is, effects of the encouragement on the primary outcome, long run cultural consumption, that are associative or dissociative with respect to the effects of the encouragements on the Palazzo Vecchio visit. This analysis allows to interpret these effects as ascribable either to the encouragements, or to the museum visits, or to classroom spillovers. To face identification issues, estimation is performed with Bayesian inferential methods using hierarchical models to account for clustering. The main findings of the analysis are as follows: what seems to matter the most is the motivational incentive (i.e., the presentation), rather than the induced experience, i.e., the Palazzo Vecchio visit.
    Date: 2019
  47. By: Jayasekera, Deshamithra H W; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–06–25

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