nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒05‒27
37 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Let’s tweet again? The impact of social networks on literature achievement in high school students: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial. By Gian Paolo Barbetta; Paolo Canino; Stefano Cima
  2. Measuring the Effect of Competitive Teacher Recruitment on Student Achievement: Evidence from Ecuador By Maria Daniela Araujo P.
  3. Regional employment effects of MNE offshoring By Eliasson, Kent; Hansson, Pär; Lindvert, Markus
  4. Barcodes, virtual money, and Golden Wheels: The influence of Davis, CA schools' bicycling encouragement programs By Thigpen, Calvin
  5. The paradox of the unhappy, growing city: reconciling evidence By Fredrik Carlsen; Stefan Leknes
  6. Network Effects in Internal Migration By Laszlo Lorincz; Brigitta Nemeth
  7. Borrowing constraints and location choice - Evidence from the Paris Region By Sophie Dantan; Nathalie Picard
  8. Does homeownership hinder labor market activity? Evidence from housing privatization and restitution in Brno By Stepan Mikula; Josef Montag
  9. Intratemporal Nonseparability between Housing and Nondurable Consumption: Evidence from Reinvestment in Housing Stock By Khorunzhina, Natalia
  10. Place-Based Innovation Ecosystems: Boston-Cambridge Innovation Districts (USA) By Carmelina Bevilacqua; Bruno Monardo; Claudia Trillo
  11. The Geographic Flow of Bank Funding and Access to Credit: Branch Networks, Local Synergies, and Competition By Victor Aguirregabiria; Robert Clark; Hui Wang
  12. Cost Benefit Analysis of a Regional Arterial PPP Toll Road Project: A Case Study of the Proposed R-1 Toll Road By Batsirai Brian Matanhire
  13. Local Constant-Quality Housing Market Liquidity Indices By Dorinth van Dijk
  14. Partial ownership of local firms and zoning of neighboring towns By Bárcena Ruiz, Juan Carlos; Casado Izaga, Francisco Javier
  15. Estimation of Regional Transition Probabilities for Spatial Dynamic Microsimulations from Survey Data Lacking in Regional Detail By Jan Pablo Burgard; Joscha Krause; Simon Schmaus
  16. Population density and urban air quality By Rainald Borck; Philipp Schrauth
  17. The Effect of Education on Health: Evidence from the 1997 Compulsory Schooling Reform in Turkey By Baltagi, Badi H.; Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso; Karatas, Haci M.
  18. Violence and Human Capital Investments By Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner; Lívia Menezes
  19. Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data By Leila Al-Mqbali; Olga Bilyk; Stefan Caputo; James Younker
  20. Regional resilience in China: The response of the provinces to the growth slowdown By Anping Chen; Nicolaas Groenewold
  21. Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia By Bladimir Carrillo
  22. Technological innovation activities in the EU: a new perspective By Antonio Vezzani; Petros Gkotsis; Hector Hernandez; Pietro Moncada Paterno Castello
  23. The Impact of Upper Secondary School Flexibility on Sorting and Educational Outcomes By Berggren, Andrea; Jeppsson, Louise
  24. An Experimental Study on the Effects of Communication, Credibility, and Clustering in Network Games By Gary Charness; Francesco Feri; Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez; Matthias Sutter
  25. Multinational Expansion in Time and Space By Stefania Garetto; Lindsay Oldenski; Natalia Ramondo
  26. Effect of Social Capital on Productivity of Cassava Farmers in Ijebu North-East Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria By Balogum, O.L; Ogunsina, I.J.; Ayo-Bello, T.A.; Afodu, O.J.; Osuji, E.E.
  27. Stability of Experimental Results: Forecasts and Evidence By Stefano DellaVigna; Devin Pope
  28. Enhancing the social integration of Roma in Slovak Republic By Michaela Bednarik; Slavomir Hidas; Gabriel Machlica
  29. Delivering Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention Services to High-Risk Youth: The Impacts of Teen Choice in New York By Jean Knab; Robert G. Wood; Joanne Lee; Lauren Murphy
  30. The Real Effects of the Bank Lending Channel By Gabriel Jiménez; Atif Mian; José-Luis Peydró; Jesús Saurina
  31. The Pure Effect of Social Preferences on Regional Location Choices: The Evolving Dynamics of Convergence to a Steady State Population Distribution By Stark, Oded; Budzinski, Wiktor; Kosiorowski, Grzegorz
  32. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the US Housing Starts using Econometric and Machine Learning Model By Sudiksha Joshi
  33. Analysis of the provision of social services at the local level: Results from the monitoring of the municipalities of Prilep and Dolneni By Bojana Josifovska; Marjan Petreski
  34. Peer Effects in Product Adoption By Bailey, Michael; Johnston, Drew; Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes; Wong, Arlene
  35. Employment Discrimination against Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Evidence from a Field Experiment By Patrick Button; Brigham Walker
  36. Explaining Gaps in Educational Transitions Between Migrant and Native School Leavers By Zimmermann, Markus
  37. The Great Divide: Regional Inequality and Fiscal Policy By William Gbohoui; W. Raphael Lam; Victor Duarte Lledo

  1. By: Gian Paolo Barbetta (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Paolo Canino; Stefano Cima
    Abstract: The availability of cheap wi-fi internet connections has stimulated schools to adopt Web 2.0 platforms for teaching. Using social networks and micro-blogs, teachers aim to stimulate students’ participation in school activities and their achievement. Although anecdotal evidence shows a high level of teacher satisfaction with these platforms, only a small number of studies has produced rigorous estimates of their effects on students’ achievement. We contribute to the knowledge in this field by analyzing the impact of using micro-blogs as a teaching tool on the reading and comprehension skills of students. Thanks to a large-scale randomized controlled trial, we find that using Twitter to teach literature has an overall negative effect on students’ average achievement, reducing performance on a standardized test score by about 25 to 40% of a standard deviation. The negative effect is heterogeneous with respect to some students’ characteristics. More specifically, the use of this Web 2.0 application appears to have a stronger detrimental effect on students who usually perform better.
    Keywords: ICT, education, literature performance, RCT.
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2019–05
  2. By: Maria Daniela Araujo P.
    Abstract: In the last decade, several Latin American governments have implemented new teacher recruitment policies based on evaluations of candidates’ competency and knowledge so as to raise the quality of their teachers and schools. Since 2007, the Ecuadorian government has required teacher candidates to pass national standardized tests before they can participate in merit-based selection competitions for tenure at public schools. Has this new recruitment system served as an effective screening device? Has it ultimately helped to raise student learning? To answer these questions, I analyze data from a unique Ecuadorian survey of schools in the academic year 2011-2012. I first estimate the value-added to student achievement using OLS and hierarchical linear regressions to evaluate the effect of Ecuador’s new competitive recruitment policy. I then use propensity score matching to simulate a random assignment of students to teachers and estimate causal treatment effects. The evidence suggests that teachers who were granted tenure through the new competitive recruitment policy were no more effective, overall, in raising students’ learning in reading or math than their peers at schools. Nonetheless, poorer children who were assigned to these teachers had significantly better scores in reading. Furthermore, test-screened teachers, regardless of their tenure status, seem to have had positive significant effects in reading, particularly for students living in poverty. This finding suggests that Ecuador’s teacher recruitment policy had a positive impact on the nation’s most vulnerable students.
    Keywords: Teacher quality, education policy, education reform, Latin America.
    JEL: I20 I21 I28 J45
    Date: 2019–05–09
  3. By: Eliasson, Kent (Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis); Hansson, Pär (Örebro University School of Business); Lindvert, Markus (Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: The employment in Sweden has become more concentrated to the larger cities in Sweden (Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö). This paper investigates whether Swedish multinational enterprises (MNEs) have contributed to that development. We examine the association between offshoring within Swedish MNEs and changes their parent employment at regional level (in local labor market regions, LA-regions). The relation may vary depending on: (i) the characteristics of the region (large city, regional center or other region) or (ii) the type of labor (skilled or less-skilled) or the type of job (routine or non-routine) in the parent. Our results reveal large spatial heterogeneities in the relationships between MNE offshoring and onshore employment in various regions. The results suggest that MNE offshoring might be a factor contributing to diverging onshore employment among Swedish regions; increased (unchanged) employment in larger cities and unchanged (decreased) employment in regional centers and other regions. Moreover, MNE offshoring seems to contribute to increased localization of skilled activities and non-routine tasks to larger cities. We use enterprise data on employment in the parents and the affiliates overseas in Swedish controlled enterprise groups with affiliates abroad (Swedish MNEs). Parent employment data are available for different regions in Sweden, skilled and less-skilled labor, as well as for various occupations.
    Keywords: multinational enterprises (MNEs); offshoring; local labor markets; skilled and lessskilled employment; routine and non-routine and jobs
    JEL: F14 F16 F23 J23 J24
    Date: 2019–05–09
  4. By: Thigpen, Calvin
    Abstract: Efforts to encourage bicycling to school can achieve numerous societal benefits, including improved childhood health, reduced traffic congestion, and even long-term effects such as increased bicycling skill and attitudes. Most of the literature on children bicycling to school focuses on the influence of infrastructure interventions, yet relatively few studies have robustly evaluated the influence of encouragement efforts. This study seeks to examine the effects of three encouragement efforts undertaken at primary and secondary schools in Davis, California: the scanning program, the Monkey Money incentive system, and the national Bike-to-School Day celebration. I use a binomial regression to statistically analyze bicycle rack count data and Safe Routes to School classroom tallies collected by city employees and local volunteers. After accounting for the schools’ physical environment and characteristics, as well as the influence of weather and the natural environment, I find that all three of the encouragement efforts increase levels of bicycling to school. I conclude by suggesting that these encouragement programs have the potential for lasting influence by providing children with the skills and confidence to bicycle later in life. I also note the value of further state support for the parent volunteers who operate these encouragement programs, in order to allow the spread of similar encouragement programs across a variety of cities, including disadvantaged communities.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycling, School travel, Encouragement, Incentives, Bike to School Day
    Date: 2019–06–01
  5. By: Fredrik Carlsen; Stefan Leknes (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to explain why large cities tend to score low on indices of happiness/life satisfaction, while at the same time experiencing population growth. Using Norwegian survey and register data, we show that different population segments are behind these seemingly contradictory attributes of large cities. A minority of highly mobile citizens are satisfied with life in Norway’s biggest city, Oslo, and exhibits positive net in-migration to the city. A majority of less mobile groups are dissatisfied and tend to move out of Oslo, but these flows are too small to determine the overall migration pattern. Our results indicate that the Rosen-Roback framework for analysis of regional quality of life, which builds on the assumption of perfect mobility, is appropriate only for the most mobile segments of the population.
    Keywords: Happiness; life satisfaction; quality of life; big cities; mobility
    JEL: J17 R23 I31
    Date: 2019–05
  6. By: Laszlo Lorincz (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Corvinus University of Budapest); Brigitta Nemeth (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: Previous studies have shown the impact of family, community, and ethnic networks on migration. Our research focuses on the role of social networks in Hungarian internal migration. We examine the factors determining out-migration rate from municipalities, and the factors influencing location choice by analysingmigration volumes on the municipality-municipality level. We measure social network effects by the migration rate of previous years, and by the intensity of user-user connections on the iWiW online social network (representing3.7million users) between two municipalities. The migration volumes and the characteristics of the municipalities are included in the analysis based on administrative data, and the distance between municipalities are indicated by the travel time. We analyselongitudinal data for the2000-2014 period, and cross-sectional models for the year 2014. Based on multilevel and fixed-effect regression models we show that both leaving and choosing municipalities is associated with network effects: the migration of previous years, and also the connections on iWiW social network influence the current migration rate, even after controlling for each other.
    Keywords: chain migration, internal migration, network effects, online social networks, social networks
    JEL: R23
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Sophie Dantan; Nathalie Picard (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of residential segregation using a nested logit model to disentangle household preferences for local amenities, for dwelling type and for homeownership. The model is extended to account for unobservable borrowing constraints which might prevent some households from purchasing a dwelling. A counterfactual distribution of socio-demographic characteristics across the Paris region is then built by relaxing those constraints. The comparison of the actual and counterfactual distributions suggests that if their credit constraints were alleviated, households would tend to locate further from Paris. In particular if constraints were relaxed only on the poorest households, they would not be likely to mix with the richest households.
    Keywords: Homeownership, Tenure choice, Borrowing constraints, Residential segregation, Suburbanization, Urban sprawl, Location choice model, Endogenous choice sets.
    JEL: R21 R23 R31
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Stepan Mikula (Masaryk University); Josef Montag (Charles University in Prague)
    Abstract: We study the effects of homeownership on labor force participation and unemployment. We exploit housing privatization and restitution after the fall of communism as a source exogenous assignment of homeowner/renter status, using a unique dataset from the city of Brno, Czech Republic. We do not find any evidence of homeownership hindering labor force participation. In fact, our estimates suggest that homeownership reduces unemployment by four to six percentage points. Homeownership appears to decrease the risk of unemployment by about one third to one half, relative to renters. The estimated effects on labor force participation are systematically around zero.
    Keywords: homeownership, labor force participation, unemployment, housing privatization and restitution
    JEL: J21 J64 P14 P25 P26 R31
    Date: 2019–05–14
  9. By: Khorunzhina, Natalia
    Abstract: Using the data on maintenance expenditures and self-assessed house value, I separate the measure of individual housing stock and house prices, and use these data for testing whether nondurable consumption and housing are characterized by intratemporal nonseparability in households' preferences. I find evidence in favor of intratemporal dependence between total nondurable consumption and housing. I reach a similar conclusion for some separate consumption categories, such as food and utility services. My findings also indicate households are more willing to substitute housing and nondurable consumption within a period than to substitute composite consumption bundles over different time periods.
    Keywords: Intratemporal Nonseparability, Housing, Nondurable Consumption
    JEL: C51 D12 D13 E21 R21
    Date: 2018–08–26
  10. By: Carmelina Bevilacqua; Bruno Monardo; Claudia Trillo
    Abstract: This report focuses on the case study of the Boston area and allows identifying key success factors in the Boston regional innovation ecosystem. It discusses how the macro-innovation eco-ecosystem is composed by a variety of interconnected micro-innovation eco-systems, mutually reinforcing each other and making the entire “territorial†system successful. The spatial configuration of these micro-innovation ecosystems at the urban scale has been specifically investigated, thus leading to theorize that the Innovation District may act as enabler for place-based innovation. Evidence from the Boston case study shows that there is not a single magic recipe for the successful implementation of place-based and social innovation-driven strategies. On the contrary, the variety of place-grounded combinations of micro and macro initiatives, embedded in the social and spatial fine grain of places and encompassing a diversity of actors, can create the conditions enabling places to thrive and local economic activities to grow in a sustainable way.
    Keywords: Place-based, innovation ecosystems, social innovation, innovation districts, US, USA, Boston, S3, Smart Specialisation, territorial system, spatial configuration
    Date: 2019–04
  11. By: Victor Aguirregabiria; Robert Clark; Hui Wang
    Abstract: Geographic dispersion of depositors, borrowers, and banks may prevent funding from flowing to areas of high loan demand, limiting credit access. We provide evidence of geographic imbalance of deposits and loans, and develop a methodology for investigating the contribution to this imbalance of (i) branch networks, (ii) market power, and (iii) scope economies, using US bank-county-year level data. Results are based on a novel measure of deposits and loans imbalance, and estimation of a structural model of bank competition that admits interconnections across locations and between deposit and loan markets, thereby permitting counterfactuals highlighting the role of the three factors.
    Keywords: Geographic flow of credit; Access to credit; Bank oligopoly competition; Branch networks; Economies of scope between deposits and loans
    JEL: L13 L51 G21
    Date: 2019–05–16
  12. By: Batsirai Brian Matanhire (Financial Analyst / Economist Cambridge Resource International Inc.)
    Abstract: Road infrastructure is of vital importance for the economic development of a country. Roads facilitate the movement of people, goods, services and resources. Traditionally, public infrastructure such as roads has been provided using national budgetary resources. Over time the participation of the private sector has increased in the procurement and provision of road infrastructure. Public authorities have been partnering with the private sector due to the limitation of capital to undertake such projects. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) of various forms have been used extensively in road transportation projects as an alternative to state and local government procurement and provision of road infrastructure. The objective of this study is to undertake an integrated investment appraisal of a proposed PPP toll road project in the Southern African country of Zimbabwe using Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA).
    Keywords: Infrastructure, Toll Road, Public-Private Partnership, Cost Benefit Analysis, Zimbabwe
    JEL: D61 H54 L92 R42
    Date: 2019–06
  13. By: Dorinth van Dijk
    Abstract: The average time on market (TOM) of sold properties is frequently used by practitioners and policymakers as a market liquidity indicator. This figure might be misleading as the average TOM only considers properties that have been sold. Furthermore, traded properties are heterogeneous. Since these features differ over the cycle, the average TOM could provide wrong signals about market liquidity. These problems are more severe in markets where properties trade infrequently. In this paper, a methodology is provided that allows for the construction of constant-quality housing market liquidity indices in thin markets that can be estimated up to the end of the sample. The latter is particularly important since market watchers are generally interested in the most recent information regarding market liquidity and less in historical information. Using individual transactions data on three different types of Dutch municipalities (small, medium, and large) it is shown that the average TOM overestimates market liquidity in bad times and underestimates market liquidity in good times. The option to withdraw is the most important reason why the average TOM is misleading. Furthermore, constant-quality liquidity leads the average TOM and price changes. The indices not only show that illiquidity is higher during busts, but also that liquidity risk is higher. Additional results suggest that setting a high list price relative to the estimated value results in a higher TOM, but this effect differs over time. Both the list price premium and the effect on sale probability are higher during busts. Differences in housing quality over the cycle, however, also play a significant role. Finally, the method allows for the construction of indices that are more robust to revisions, especially in thinner markets.
    Keywords: Liquidity; Housing; Quality; Index; Thin markets
    JEL: R30 C11 C41
    Date: 2019–05
  14. By: Bárcena Ruiz, Juan Carlos; Casado Izaga, Francisco Javier
    Abstract: This paper investigates zoning in two neighboring towns in which firms are owned by investors that reside in the two towns. We find that local regulators use zoning strategically depending on the weight of local profits in social welfare. When they are high enough both towns are zoned. For intermediate values an asymmetric result emerges: only one regulator resorts to zoning despite the symmetry in the percentage of ownership of the neighboring firms. For a low weight of local profits, towns may or may not be zoned. Zoning restrictions on the location of firms are tighter when local profits are more significant for social welfare.
    Keywords: zoning, spatial, competition, foreign, ownership, location, choice
    JEL: L13 R32 R38
    Date: 2019–03–27
  15. By: Jan Pablo Burgard; Joscha Krause; Simon Schmaus
    Abstract: Spatial dynamic microsimulations allow for the multivariate analysis of complex socio- economic systems with geographic segmentation. For this, a synthetic replica of the system as base population is stochastically projected into future periods. Thereby, the projection is based on micro-level transition probabilities. They need to accurately represent the characteristic dynamics of the system to allow for reliable simulation outcomes. In practice, transition probabilities are unknown and must be estimated from suitable survey data. This can be challenging when the characteristic dynamics vary locally. Survey data often lacks in regional detail due to confidentiality restrictions and limited sampling resources. In that case, transition probability estimates may misrepresent local dynamics as a result of insufficient local observations and coverage problems. The simulation process then fails to provide an authentic evolution. We present two transition probability estimation techniques that account for regional heterogeneity when the survey data lacks in regional detail. Using methods of constrained optimization and ex-post alignment, we show that local micro level transition dynamics can be accurately recovered from aggregated regional benchmarks. The techniques are compared in theory and subsequently tested in a simulation study.
    Keywords: Constrained Maximum Likelihood, Logit Scaling, Spatiotemporal Modelling, Regional Benchmark
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Rainald Borck; Philipp Schrauth
    Abstract: We use panel data from Germany to analyze the effect of population density on urban air pollution (nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and ozone). To address unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variables, we present long difference/fixed effects estimates and instrumental variables estimates, using historical population and soil quality as instruments. Our preferred estimates imply that a one-standard deviation increase in population density increases air pollution by 3-12%.
    Keywords: population density, air pollution
    JEL: Q53 R12
    Date: 2019
  17. By: Baltagi, Badi H. (Syracuse University); Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso (Syracuse University); Karatas, Haci M. (Giresun University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between education and health outcomes using a natural experiment in Turkey. The compulsory schooling increased from 5 to 8 years in 1997. This increase was accompanied by a massive construction of classrooms and recruitment of teachers in a differential rate across regions. As in previous studies, we confirm that the 1997 reform substantially increased education in Turkey. Using the number of new middle school class openings per 1000 children as an intensity measure for the 1997 reform, we find that, on average, one additional middle school class increases the probability of completion of 8 years or more of schooling by about 7.1 percentage points. We use this exogenous increase in the educational attainment to investigate the impact of education on body mass index, obesity, smoking behavior, and self-rated health, as well as the effect of maternal education on the infant's well-being. Using ordinary least squares, we find that there is a statistically significant favorable effect of education on health outcomes and behavior. However, this relationship becomes insignificant when we account for the endogeneity of education and health by instrumenting education with exogenous variations generated by the 1997 reform and the accompanying middle school class openings. The insignificance of the health effect may be due to lack of statistical power in our data, or to the fact that this policy affects only relatively low levels of schooling and the health effects of education need to be examined at higher levels of schooling.
    Keywords: health, education, compulsory schooling, body mass index, obesity, smoking, selfrated health, maternal education, infant's well-being, Turkey
    JEL: C26 I12 I21 I28
    Date: 2019–05
  18. By: Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner; Lívia Menezes
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of exposure to homicides on the educational performance and human capital investments of students in Brazil. We combine extremely granular information on the location and timing of homicides with a number of very large administrative educational datasets, to estimate the effect of exposure to homicides around schools, students' residence, and on their way to school on these outcomes. We show that violence has a detrimental effect on school attendance, on standardised test scores in math and Portuguese language and increases dropout rates of students substantially. The effects are particularly pronounced for boys, indicating important heterogeneous effects of violence. We use exceptionally rich information from student- and parent-background questionnaires to investigate the effect of violence on the aspirations and attitudes towards education. In line with the effects on dropout and the longer-term human capital accumulation of students, we find that boys systematically report lower educational aspiration towards education. Making use of the very rich information from the homicides and education data, we explore a number of underlying transmission channels, including mechanisms related to school supply, bereavement and incentives for human capital investments.
    Keywords: Homocides, human capital investments, education, Brazil
    JEL: I25 K42 O12
    Date: 2019–04
  19. By: Leila Al-Mqbali; Olga Bilyk; Stefan Caputo; James Younker
    Abstract: Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). The new dataset is the first of its kind to provide information on individual components of combined mortgage-HELOC plans. These combined plans are an increasingly popular credit product. We find that the credit growth has been concentrated in the amortizing mortgage component of the combined plans rather than the non-amortizing HELOC component. In addition, the total outstanding balance of HELOCs has contracted over the past year, which is consistent with rising interest rates and a slowdown in the growth of household consumption.
    Keywords: Credit and credit aggregates; Financial Institutions; Financial stability; Recent economic and financial developments
    JEL: D1 G21 G28
    Date: 2019–05
  20. By: Anping Chen (School of Economics, Jinan University); Nicolaas Groenewold (Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: Since 2007 China’s real GDP growth rate has slowed from a level of over 10% per annum to below 7%. Given China’s regional diversity, an important aspect of the slowdown is the possible spatial variation in its experience. This is the issue we consider in this paper and we analyse this question in the context of the regional economic resilience framework. We proceed in two stages. In the first we analyse a measure of provincial slowdown (a sensitivity index) based just on growth rates and use cross-section regressions to investigate the determinants of this index, using a range of provincial characteristics common in the resilience literature. We find that economic structure, demographic factors and education all play a role, although with signs that are often at odds with the existing literature. In the second stage we decompose regional growth rates into national and province-specific components using a VAR model and argue that since resilience concerns the response of provinces to a national shock, it is properly analysed using just the national component of the growth rate rather than the growth rate as such. We therefore analyse a sensitivity index based just on the national component of growth and find many differences between the two sets of results. Using the second index matters for the determinants which are significant as well as for the magnitude of their coefficients. It appears that some of the influences found to be significant in the first stage are there only because of their influence on growth via the province-specific component of the growth rate and in this sense are spurious.
    Keywords: China, growth, provincial growth, provincial response, regional resilience
    JEL: E37 O47 O53 R12 R15
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Bladimir Carrillo (Universidade Federal de Viçosa)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run impacts of income shocks by exploiting variation in coffee cultivation patterns within Colombia and world coffee prices during cohorts' school-going years in a differences-in-differences framework. The results indicate that cohorts who faced higher returns to coffee-related work during school-going years completed fewer years of schooling and have lower income in adulthood. These findings suggest that leaving school during temporary booms results in a significant loss of long-term income. This is consistent with the possibility that students may ignore or heavily discount the future consequences of dropout decisions when faced with immediate income gains.
    Keywords: Information Avoidance, Energy Efficiency, Moral Wiggle Roo
    JEL: J24 O12 O13
    Date: 2019–05
  22. By: Antonio Vezzani (European Commission - JRC); Petros Gkotsis (European Commission - JRC); Hector Hernandez (European Commission - JRC); Pietro Moncada Paterno Castello (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: In many EU countries, a high proportion of local inventions are owned by foreign companies. On the contrary, in few countries the number of patents owned is much higher than the local inventions. Companies from Germany and the US are the most frequent foreign owners of patents invented in EU countries. Concentration of patents across companies changes largely from one country to the other. Differences between local inventions and patent ownership, as well as their concentration within countries matter for Innovation policies aiming at closing the EU gap of knowledge creation and technology diffusion.
    Keywords: patents, inventor, ownership, technological innovation, innovation policy, industrial policy
    Date: 2019–04
  23. By: Berggren, Andrea (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Jeppsson, Louise (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact of an upper secondary curriculum reform in Sweden that increased students' course-taking flexibility in year 2000. In the most popular upper secondary program, it led to a significant decrease in mandatory mathematics requirements. Using administrative Swedish data, we estimate the causal impact of the reform on tertiary education outcomes and expected earnings using a differences-in-discontinuity identification strategy. The method compares students born immediately before and after the cutoff date. The inclusion of students born in neighboring non-reform cutoff years enables us to disentangle the school starting age effect from the unconfounded effect of the reform. We find no negative effects of the reduced mathematics requirements. Rather, we find a positive effect of the reform on students' probability of enrolling in, and earning a degree from, tertiary education. Our heterogeneity analysis suggests that relatively disadvantaged students were not negatively affected by the reform.
    Keywords: Educational Economics; Upper secondary school curriculum; Course selection; Tertiary education; Returns to education; Reform evaluation; Human Capital
    JEL: I21 I23 I28
    Date: 2019–05
  24. By: Gary Charness (University of California at Santa Barbara, IZA Bonn, and CESifo Munich); Francesco Feri (Royal Holloway University of London and University of Trieste); Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez (Universidad de Málaga); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)
    Abstract: The effectiveness of social interaction depends strongly on an ability to coordinate actions efficiently. In large networks, such coordination may be very difficult to achieve and may depend on the communication technology and the network structure. We examine how pre-play communication and clustering within networks affect coordination in a challenging experimental game on eight-person networks. Free-form chat is enormously effective in achieving the non-equilibrium efficient outcome in our game, but restricted communication (where subjects can only indicate their intended action) is almost entirely ineffective. We can rationalize this result with a novel model about the credibility of cheap-talk messages. This credibility is much larger with free-form message communication than with restricted communication. We are the first to model this credibility and show, both theoretically and experimentally, an interaction effect of network structure and communication technologies. We also provide a model of message diffusion, which indeed predicts that diffusion will be more rapid without clustering and is consistent with our data.
    Keywords: Networks, Clustering, Communication, Credibility, Cheap talk, Experiment
    JEL: C71 C91 D03 D85
    Date: 2019–05
  25. By: Stefania Garetto (BU, CEPR, and NBER); Lindsay Oldenski (Georgetown University); Natalia Ramondo (UCSD and NBER)
    Abstract: This paper studies the expansion patterns of the multinational enterprise (MNE) in time and space. Using a long panel of US MNEs, we document that: MNE affiliates grow by exporting to new markets; the activities of MNE affiliates persist during the affiliate’s life, usually starting with sales to their host market and eventually expanding to export markets; and MNE affiliates’ entry into new locations does not depend on the location of preexisting affiliates. Informed by these facts, we develop a multi-country quantitative dynamic model of the MNE that features heterogeneity in firm-level productivity, persistent aggregate shocks, and a rich structure of costs that affect MNE expansion. Importantly, MNE affiliates can decouple their locations of production and sales, and endogenously choose to enter or exit the host and the export markets. We introduce a compound option formulation that allows us to capture in a tractable way the rich heterogeneity that is observed in the data and that is necessary for quantitative analysis. Using the calibrated model, our quantitative application to Brexit reveals that export platforms are important for understanding the reallocation of MNE activity in time and space, and that the nature of the frictions to MNE activities matters for aggregate firm dynamics.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Innovation, Credit Constraints, Convergence, Policy Analysis, Money, Inflation
    JEL: O11 O23 O31 O33 O38 O42
    Date: 2019–04
  26. By: Balogum, O.L; Ogunsina, I.J.; Ayo-Bello, T.A.; Afodu, O.J.; Osuji, E.E.
    Keywords: Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2017–10
  27. By: Stefano DellaVigna; Devin Pope
    Abstract: How robust are experimental results to changes in design? And can researchers anticipate which changes matter most? We consider a specific context, a real-effort task with multiple behavioral treatments, and examine the stability along six dimensions: (i) pure replication; (ii) demographics; (iii) geography and culture; (iv) the task; (v) the output measure; (vi) the presence of a consent form. We use rank-order correlation across the treatments as measure of stability, and compare the observed correlation to the one under a benchmark of full stability (which allows for noise), and to expert forecasts. The academic experts expect that the pure replication will be close to perfect, that the results will differ sizably across demographic groups (age/gender/education), and that changes to the task and output will make a further impact. We find near perfect replication of the experimental results, and full stability of the results across demographics, significantly higher than the experts expected. The results are quite different across task and output change, mostly because the task change adds noise to the findings. The results are also stable to the lack of consent. Overall, the full stability benchmark is an excellent predictor of the observed stability, while expert forecasts are not that informative. This suggests that researchers' predictions about external validity may not be as informative as they expect. We discuss the implications of both the methods and the results for conceptual replication.
    JEL: C9 C91 C93
    Date: 2019–05
  28. By: Michaela Bednarik; Slavomir Hidas; Gabriel Machlica
    Abstract: Roma account for almost one-tenth of the population in the Slovak Republic. They live mostly excluded from the general population in concentrated settlements, separated neighbourhoods or ghettos. The majority live in poverty and face social exclusion in almost all aspects of everyday life. Only a small share of Roma work, and a majority suffer from long spells of unemployment, their educational attainment is low, and a large number are illiterate. Social exclusion is further exacerbated by rising general animosity and mistrust between Roma and non-Roma groups. This calls for immediate policy action. The government should ensure easy access to all public services and provide additional support for the disadvantaged Roma communities. Individual policies should be effectively coordinated, because the problems that the Roma are facing are interconnected. A necessary precondition for successful Roma integration is the support of the general population. Policy interventions towards Roma integration should be accompanied by measures to eliminate the prejudices among parts of the majority population against their fellow citizens.
    Keywords: inclusion, poverty, pre-school education, Roma
    JEL: I24 I32 J15 J48
    Date: 2019–05–24
  29. By: Jean Knab; Robert G. Wood; Joanne Lee; Lauren Murphy
    Abstract: This report presents evidence on the impacts of the Teen Choice curriculum for youth in alternative schools in and around New York City.
    Keywords: Teen pregnancy prevention, adolescent pregnancy prevention, PREP, Teen Choice, high-risk youth pregnancy prevention
    JEL: I
  30. By: Gabriel Jiménez; Atif Mian; José-Luis Peydró; Jesús Saurina
    Abstract: We study bank credit booms, exploiting the Spanish matched credit register over 2001-2009. We extend Khwaja and Mian (2008)’s loan-level estimator by incorporating firm-level general equilibrium adjustments. Higher ex-ante bank real-estate exposure increases credit supply to non-real-estate firms, but effects are neutralized by firm-level adjustments for firms with existing banking relationships. However, higher bank real-estate exposure increases risk-taking, by relaxing standards of existing borrowers (cheaper, longer-term and less collateralized credit), and by expanding credit on the extensive margin to first-time borrowers that default substantially more. Results suggest that the mechanism at work is greater liquidity via securitization of real-estate assets.
    Keywords: bank lending channel, real effects of credit, credit supply booms, real estate, securitization
    JEL: E32 E44 G01 G21 G28
    Date: 2019–04
  31. By: Stark, Oded (University of Bonn); Budzinski, Wiktor (University of Warsaw); Kosiorowski, Grzegorz (Cracow University of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper tracks the consequences of individuals' desire to align their location with their social preferences. The social preference studied in the paper is distaste for relative deprivation, measured in a cardinal manner. Location is conceived as social space, with individuals choosing to relocate if, as a result, their relative deprivation will be reduced, holding their incomes constant. Conditions are provided under which the associated dynamics reaches a spatial steady state, the number of periods it takes to reach a steady state is specified, and light is shed on the robustness of the steady state outcome. By way of simulation it is shown that for large populations, a steady state of the relocation dynamics is almost always reached, typically in one period, and that cycles are more likely to occur when the populations' income distributions are more equal.
    Keywords: social preferences, distaste for low relative income, a cardinal measure of income relative deprivation, interregional locational choices, relocation dynamics, steady-state spatial distribution
    JEL: C62 C63 R12 R13 Z13
    Date: 2019–05
  32. By: Sudiksha Joshi
    Abstract: In this research paper, I have performed time series analysis and forecasted the monthly value of housing starts for the year 2019 using several econometric methods - ARIMA(X), VARX, (G)ARCH and machine learning algorithms - artificial neural networks, ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, and support vector regression, and created an ensemble model. The ensemble model stacks the predictions from various individual models, and gives a weighted average of all predictions. The analyses suggest that the ensemble model has performed the best among all the models as the prediction errors are the lowest, while the econometric models have higher error rates.
    Date: 2019–05
  33. By: Bojana Josifovska; Marjan Petreski
    Date: 2019–05
  34. By: Bailey, Michael; Johnston, Drew; Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes; Wong, Arlene
    Abstract: We study the nature of peer effects in the market for new cell phones. Our analysis builds on de-identified data from Facebook that combine information on social networks with information on users' cell phone models. To identify peer effects, we use variation in friends' new phone acquisitions resulting from random phone losses and carrier-specific contract terms. A new phone purchase by a friend has a substantial positive and long-term effect on an individual's own demand for phones of the same brand, most of which is concentrated on the particular model purchased by the friend. We provide evidence that social learning contributes substantially to the observed peer effects. While peer effects increase the overall demand for cell phones, a friend's purchase of a new phone of a particular brand can reduce individuals' own demand for phones from competing brands---in particular those running on a different operating system. We discuss the implications of these findings for the nature of firm competition. We also find that stronger peer effects are exerted by more price-sensitive individuals. This positive correlation suggests that the elasticity of aggregate demand is substantially larger than the elasticity of individual demand. Through this channel, peer effects reduce firms' markups and, in many models, contribute to higher consumer surplus and more efficient resource allocation.
    Keywords: Demand Spillovers; peer effects; Social learning
    JEL: D4 L1 L2 M3
    Date: 2019–05
  35. By: Patrick Button; Brigham Walker
    Abstract: We conducted a resume correspondence experiment to measure discrimination in hiring faced by Indigenous Peoples in the United States (Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians). We sent employers realistic 13,516 resumes for common jobs (retail sales, kitchen staff, server, janitor, and security) in 11 cities and compared callback rates. We signaled Indigenous status in one of four different ways. We almost never find any differences in callback rates, regardless of the context. These findings hold after numerous robustness checks, although our checks and discussions raise multiple concerns that are relevant to audit studies generally.
    JEL: C93 J15 J7
    Date: 2019–05
  36. By: Zimmermann, Markus (HU Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the reasons for the large and persistent gaps in transitions after secondary school between native pupils compared to second- and third generation immigrant pupils in Germany. I first document that differences in parental background, skills (such as school degrees or test scores), and school fixed effects explain part of the migrant-native gaps, but are not sufficient. Conditional on these factors, there is a \"polarization\" of educational choices: migrants are more likely to attend tertiary education, less likely to attend vocational education, and more likely to end without qualified training than their background and skills would predict. I then show that this polarization is driven by the migrant pupils\' more academically oriented career aspirations and expectations before leaving school. On the one hand, these higher ambitions allow higher skilled migrants to hieventertiary education despite their less favourable background characteristics. On the other hand, less skilled migrants who in Germany\'s tracked school system do not have the option to enter academic education, may be diverted from vocational training as a more viable alternative. These patterns are stronger for boys than for girls. Finally, I discuss various possible explanations for the migrants\' different career plans, including expected labour market returns to education, expected discrimination, the intention to leave Germany, overconfidence, or information deficits.
    Keywords: migrant youth; vocational education; tertiary education; aspirations; expectations;
    JEL: I24 I21 J24 J15
    Date: 2019–05–24
  37. By: William Gbohoui; W. Raphael Lam; Victor Duarte Lledo
    Abstract: Growing regional inequality within countries has raised the perception that “some places and people” are left behind. This has prompted a shift toward inward-looking policies and away from pro-growth reforms. This paper presents novel stylized facts on regional inequality for OECD countries. It shows that regional disparity in per-capita GDP is large (even after adjusting for regional price differences), persistent, and widening over time. The paper also finds that rising nationwide income inequality is associated with both rising within-region income inequality and widening average income across regions. The rise in inequality is related to declining incentives for interregional labor mobility, especially for poor households in lagging regions, which are estimated to reduce by as much as one-third in the United States. Against these facts, the paper proposes a framework to identify whether, how and by whom fiscal policies can be used to tackle regional inequality. It outlines conditions under which those policies should be spatially-targeted and illustrates how they can be complementary to conventional means-testing methods in mitigating income inequality.
    Date: 2019–05–02

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