|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Urban economics and branches of mainstream economics – what we call the “housing as opportunity” school of thought – have been arguing that shortages of affordable housing in dense agglomerations represent a fundamental barrier for economic development. Housing shortages are considered to limit migration into thriving cities, curtailing their expansion potential, generating rising social and spatial inequalities, and inhibiting national growth. According to this dominant view within economics, relaxing zoning and other planning regulations in the most prosperous cities is crucial to unleash the economic potential of cities and nations and to facilitate within-country migration. In this article, we contend that the bulk of the claims of the housing as opportunity approach are fundamentally flawed and lead to simplistic and misguided policy recommendations. We posit that there is no clear and uncontroversial evidence that housing regulation is a principal source of differences in home availability or prices across cities. Blanket changes in zoning are unlikely to increase domestic migration or to increase affordability for lower-income households in prosperous regions. They would, however, increase gentrification within prosperous regions and would not appreciably decrease income inequality. In contrast to the housing models, we argue the basic motors of all these features of the economy are the current geography of employment, wages and skills. |
| Keywords: | cities; housing; regulation; urban planning; economic growth; Inequality constraints; migration |
| JEL: | D63 O18 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100738&r=all |
| By: | Giuseppe Albanese (Bank of Italy); Emanuele Ciani (Bank of Italy); Guido de Blasio (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates the local effects of urban regeneration policies by using evidence from interventions that took place in small and medium-sized cities in the Centre and North of Italy over the period 2008-12. By using an Oaxaca-Blinder reweighting estimator, we find little support for the idea that urban regeneration projects could stimulate local economic growth in the short to medium term. Only the largest scale interventions that focused on improving the public realm seem to have led to an increase in house prices, but they have had no impact on other economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | urban regeneration, house prices, reweighting |
| JEL: | R58 R11 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1214_19&r=all |
| By: | Antonio Accetturo (Bank of Italy); Andrea Lamorgese (Bank of Italy); Sauro Mocetti (Bank of Italy); Paolo Sestito (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an overview of the results of a recent research project by the Bank of Italy on “Local development, urban economies and aggregate growth”. The paper documents the interplay between historical origins, congestion costs, and agglomeration benefits in shaping the Italian urban system. It shows that urban agglomeration externalities (on wages, productivity, or innovation) tend to be smaller in Italy than in other developed countries; it also shows that the costs of congestion are relatively high and that housing costs discourage mobility. These features might have negative consequences on the country’s ability to grow. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, agglomeration, congestion costs, urban premium |
| JEL: | O10 R10 R30 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_490_19&r=all |
| By: | Aaron Chalfin; Benjamin Hansen; Jason Lerner; Lucie Parker |
| Abstract: | This paper offers experimental evidence that crime can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but surprisingly understudied feature of the urban landscape – street lighting – and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary streetlights were randomly allocated to public housing developments from March through August 2016. We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in crime. After accounting for potential spatial spillovers, we find that the provision of street lights led, at a minimum, to a 36 percent reduction in nighttime outdoor index crimes. |
| JEL: | H40 H7 I1 K42 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25798&r=all |
| By: | Kacie Dragan; Ingrid Ellen; Sherry A. Glied |
| Abstract: | The pace of gentrification has accelerated in cities across the country since 2000, and many observers fear it is displacing low-income populations from their homes and communities. We offer new evidence about the consequences of gentrification on mobility, building and neighborhood conditions, using longitudinal New York City Medicaid records from January 2009 to December 2015 to track the movement of a cohort of low-income children over seven years, during a period of rapid gentrification in the city. We leverage building-level data to examine children in market rate housing separately from those in subsidized housing. We find no evidence that gentrification is associated with meaningful changes in mobility rates over the seven-year period. It is associated with slightly longer distance moves. As for changes in neighborhood conditions, we find that children who start out in a gentrifying area experience larger improvements in some aspects of their residential environment than their counterparts who start out in persistently low-socioeconomic status areas. This effect is driven by families who stay in neighborhoods as they gentrify; we observe few differences in the characteristics of destination neighborhoods among families who move, though we find modest evidence that children moving from gentrifying areas move to lower-quality buildings. |
| JEL: | J6 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25809&r=all |
| By: | Tang, Edward Chi Ho; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Ng, Joe Cho Yiu |
| Abstract: | This paper takes advantage of the oligopolistic structure of the Hong Kong primary housing market and examines whether the time-variations of the market concentration are caused by or cause the variations of the local economic factors. The analysis also takes into consideration of the changes of the U.S. variables and commodity prices, which arguably may represent changes in the construction cost. We find clear evidence of time-varying responses of housing market variables to macroeconomic variables. Policy implications and directions for future research are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Oligopoly, market share, Herfindahl index, macroeconomic variables, dynamic factor model, Time-Varying Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR |
| JEL: | E30 L12 L85 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93680&r=all |
| By: | Enrico Bertacchini; Federico Revelli |
| Abstract: | This paper uses panel data on over 200 regions of Europe to study the spatial distribution of UNESCO sites and the capacity of regional governments to conserve heritage, using new designations in the World Heritage List as a proxy. We test whether the location of a region matters by controlling for the stock of World Heritage in the surrounding regions, and if low regional government quality is an obstacle to inclusion of sites into the List. We find some evidence of within-country regional competition for inscription, and of a positive impact of government quality on the chances of having a UNESCO designation. |
| Keywords: | UNESCO World Heritage, quality of government, regions of Europe, spatial analysis |
| JEL: | C23 R10 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7618&r=all |
| By: | Filippetti, Andrea; Cerulli, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | Does regional autonomy lead to better local public services? We investigate this issue using measures of public service performance and autonomy at the region level in 171 European regions. We introduce a novel dose-response approach which identifies the pattern of the effect of regional autonomy on the performance of public services. The relationship between the level of regional autonomy and the provision of local public services exhibits a u-shape: both low and high autonomy lead to better local public services. This speaks against the presence of one optimal level of autonomy and policy recommendations based on the view that more decentralisation is always desirable. It shows that different institutional settings can be economically viable and efficient. |
| Keywords: | decentralization; dose-response approach; European regions; quality of institutions; Quality of local public services; regional autonomy |
| JEL: | P48 R10 R50 H70 |
| Date: | 2018–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100770&r=all |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka; Guy Lacroix |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the links between homeownership, employment and earnings for which no consensus exists in the literature. Our analysis is cast within a dynamic setting and the endogeneity of each outcome is assessed through the estimation of a flexible panel multivariate model with random effects. The data we use are drawn from the French sample of the EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions for the years 2004–2013. The error terms are both correlated across equations and autocorrelated. Individual random effects are also correlated across equations. The model is estimated using a simulated maximum likelihood estimator and particular care is given to the initial conditions problem. Our results show that while homeowners have longer employment and unemployment spells, they must contend with lower earnings than tenants upon reemployment. They also stress the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining the transitions on the labour and housing markets, and the relationship between earnings and the latter two. Failure to properly account for this is likely to yield biased parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership, Unemployment, Earnings, Heterogeneity, Simulation based estimation, Panel data. |
| JEL: | J21 J64 J31 C33 C35 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:criacr:1811&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Cohodes; Elizabeth Setren; Christopher R. Walters |
| Abstract: | Can schools that boost student outcomes reproduce their success at new campuses? We study a policy reform that allowed effective charter schools in Boston, Massachusetts to replicate their school models at new locations. Estimates based on randomized admission lotteries show that replication charter schools generate large achievement gains on par with those produced by their parent campuses. The average effectiveness of Boston’s charter middle school sector increased after the reform despite a doubling of charter market share. An exploration of mechanisms shows that Boston charter schools reduce the returns to teacher experience and compress the distribution of teacher effectiveness, suggesting the highly standardized practices in place at charter schools may facilitate replicability. |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25796&r=all |
| By: | Guillaume Bérard (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alain Trannoy (EHESS - L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of an increase in the share of the real estate transfer taxes (RETT) rates going to the French départements from 3.80% to 4.50%. Not all the départe-ments voted the RETT increase on the same date, which is the starting point of a natural experiment. Using a difference-indifferences design, we estimate two main effects. (1) An anticipation effect, one month before the implementation of the reform, in order to avoid the RETT increase. (2) A retention effect in the post-reform period. In the end, the net effect (retention minus anticipation) corresponds to an average drop in transactions of around 6% over the first three months after the reform, that is, approximately 15,000 transactions lost at national level. If we find a short term effect of the reform, we do not find evidence of a medium-or long-term effect. JEL Classification: H71, R21, R31, R51 |
| Keywords: | local government,real estate market,transfer taxes,natural experiment |
| Date: | 2018–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01976524&r=all |
| By: | Jason Nassios; John Madden; James Giesecke; Janine Dixon; Nhi Tran; Peter Dixon; Maureen Rimmer; Philip Adams; John Freebairn |
| Abstract: | The Henry Review of Australia's Future Tax System (2009), made several recommendations to promote resilience, fairness, and prosperity via tax reform. Some of the key reforms suggested include a reduction in Australia's federally-imposed corporate income tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent; and the removal of property transfer duties levied by state governments. The review by Henry et al. (2009) utilised a long-run, comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy to study the tax system. Implicit within this framework is a single layer of government. In reality, Australia's state government levied tax rates differ across the eight states and territories; some, such as state land tax, health insurance and life insurance levies, are applied in a subset of states and territories only. A general lack of interstate coordination is evident in setting, developing and reforming Australian tax policy. In this paper, we present a meticulous and detailed analysis of Australia's state and federal tax system, using a bottom-up multi-regional CGE model of Australia's states and territories, called VURMTAX. The general framework underlying VURMTAX is similar to the Monash multi-regional forecasting (MMRF) model and its successor VURM; see Adams et al. (2015). A state/local government agent therefore operates within each region, with an overarching federal government agent operating across all state and territories. VURMTAX differs from MMRF/VURM in several ways. For example, we include new theory to model the interaction between Australia's corporate and personal tax system via full dividend imputation. This involves the introduction of two types of investment agents: foreign and local investors. In VURMTAX, the tax rate levied on corporate profits accruing to these two classes of investor differ, because only the domestic investor can claim franking credits. We also give careful consideration to industry-specific foreign capital ownership shares. This means the mining sector, for example, has a larger foreign capital ownership share than the economy-wide average in VURMTAX. We also modify the standard Klein-Rubin utility function that governs the consumption choices facing region-specific representative households in MMRF/VURM, to take account of important distortions in consumer choice caused by Australia's tax system. More specifically, we model the impact of housing tenure choice distortions introduced by owner-occupied housing exemptions in state land taxes and personal income tax, using a nested CES framework. The elasticity of substitution between rented and owner-occupied housing is then calibrated based on findings from an appropriately specified discrete choice model of housing tenure choice. We also alter the standard household decision theory to properly account for the impact of property transfer duties on the demand for the bundle of goods typically consumed by households or businesses when moving house or factory/office. We call this bundle of goods moving services. These services include real estate services contracted to sell a house/buy a property, legal services contracted to prepare necessary transfer forms, and public administration services that are demanded to formally update title office documents. We also account for the impact of motor vehicle taxes on transport modal choice by households. As such, when the motor vehicle registration duty is increased in VURMTAX, we allow for direct modal substitution between, e.g, road passenger transport (taxis), and private transport. Among other theoretical developments, we account for the impact of jurisdiction-specific payroll tax thresholds in Australia on the output levels of monopolistically competitive firms, which yields insights into whether a reduction in payroll tax rates or a rise in payroll tax thresholds are more effective means of stimulating a regional economy. We also embed within VURMTAX a detailed equation system to account for Australia's goods and services tax (GST). We apply this new theory to quantify: (i) the relative economic efficiency of unilateral state tax policy reforms in a single Australian state, New South Wales (NSW); (ii) the excess burden of Australia's three main federally-imposed taxes; and (iii) the broader macroeconomic, state and industry impacts of federal tax policy, and unilateral state tax policy, reforms. Our assessment of the relative efficiency of NSW state and Australian federal taxes yields a set of marginal and average excess burdens, which are summarised and discussed. In total, we calculate excess burdens for nineteen major Australian taxes, of which sixteen are levied at the state/local government level. In addition to our study of the allocative efficiency impacts of the various state and federal taxes, detailed long-run (21 years postreform) results are provided and described, to quantify the economic and industry effects of Australian tax policy reforms. With regard to state taxes, we find residential property transfer duties to be the most damaging of the state government levied taxes. More specifically, we derive a marginal excess burden for residential property transfer duties that exceeds 100 cents per dollar of revenue raised. Contrary to many past studies of Australia's tax system, we also derive a negative marginal excess burden for company tax in Australia. We compare and contrast this result to past studies, and elucidate some key differences in parameter assumptions and modelling methodology that drive this result. |
| Keywords: | Taxation policy CGE modelling Dynamics Excess burden |
| JEL: | C68 E20 E62 H2 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-289&r=all |
| By: | Mukhopadhyay Abhiroop; Urzainqui David; Urzainqui David |
| Abstract: | Studies of the spatial dimensions of inequality in developing countries are mostly restricted to states, provinces, or districts, typically the smallest geographical units for which data are representative in national surveys.We introduce a procedure to calculate inequality between and within smaller spatial units in the context of India, taking advantage of census and satellite data available for a large number of characteristics at the level of the village and the urban sub-district (block). Using prediction models based on those characteristics and estimated at the district level, we impute average per capita consumption expenditure for villages and urban blocks in 2004 and 2011. These imputations allow us to calculate (spatial) inequality between villages and blocks and to derive (local) inequality within these spatial units.We find that the divergence observed for states and districts is not amplified at lower levels of disaggregation. Hence, the increase in inequality in urban India is mostly due to rising inequality within urban blocks. Neither rural inequality nor its local and spatial components have changed much at the national level, but there is substantial heterogeneity between states and across poor and rich districts. Finally, we find that urbanization, growth of employment, and ‘good’ jobs may be moving hand in hand with falling spatial inequalities but rising local inequalities. On the other hand, the expansion of literacy and access to banking and sanitation are linked to lower rises in inequality. |
| Keywords: | Decomposition,Inequality,Spatial inequality |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-182&r=all |
| By: | Michael Amior |
| Abstract: | Geographical mobility is known to be crucial to the adjustment of local labor markets. But there is severe inequity in the incidence of mobility: better educated Americans make many more long-distance moves. I argue this is a consequence of larger wage offer dispersion, independent of geography. In a thin labor market, this generates larger wage rents (in excess of workers' reservations) in new job matches, particularly for younger workers who are just beginning their careers. If an offer happens to arrive from a distant location, these larger rents are more likely to justify the cost of moving - even if the offer distribution is invariant geographically. Also, local job creation will elicit a larger migratory response. I motivate my claims with new evidence on mobility patterns and subjective moving costs. And I test my hypothesis by estimating wage returns to local and long-distance job matching over the jobs ladder. Though I focus on education differentials, this paper offers new insights for understanding geographical immobility more generally. |
| Keywords: | geographical mobility, job matching, education |
| JEL: | J61 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1616&r=all |
| By: | Cardoso-Marta Pinto-Machado, Matilde; Gomes, Pedro |
| Abstract: | In 1940, the Portuguese government approved a massive primary school construction plan that projected a 60% increase in the number of primary schools. Based on the collection of a new dataset, we describe the education in Portugal prior to the plan as well as the plan's strategy regarding the location of schools. We then estimate the causal impact of the increase in the number of schools between 1940 and the early 60s on enrolment and literacy, all at the county level. |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:28328&r=all |
| By: | Natacha Aveline Ou Aveline-Dubach (GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Guillaume Blandeau (GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The mechanism of land value capture (LVC) for financing urban transport, which supports the cost of transit infrastructure through the revenues of land and property, has generated a substantial body of research. However, the literature on transit-related LVC has paid little attention to the politics and strategies of value capture. This article intends to shift the focus towards the governance of LVC, based on the case study of the Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC) in Hong Kong. It argues that the evolving balance of power within Hong Kong's growth coalition has entailed a transformation of the MTRC's business model, prompting the transit agency to shift from the development of new real estate projects to the management of existing property assets. This work provides empirical evidence of an emerging 'management-based' value capture strategy, which is adapted to steady or slow growing urban contexts. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02100616&r=all |
| By: | Sullivan, James L.; Sentoff, Karen M. |
| Abstract: | In this study, a second-by-second (SbS) data set obtained from monitoring vehicle emissions over a series of 75 test runs from 2 test vehicles (a conventional vehicle (CV) and a hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV)) over an 18-month period in 2010-2011 during real-world on-road operations on a specified 32-mile route in Chittenden County, Vermont was used in an innovative new method of analysis to assess emissions differences between the two propulsion systems and attribute these differences to physical roadway/infrastructure characteristics. The K-S test was used to assess the difference between the cumulative distributions of the CV and HEV emissions samples on each link, and the K-S test statistic was regressed against the full set of roadway link characteristics. The regression results allowed the team to identify specific roadway characteristics that contribute to emissions differences between the vehicle types. Overall, the models that included maximum grade and intersection control type performed best, however speed limit and horizontal curvature were also shown to be important. The performance differences identified in this project confirm that engine controls that are responsive to roadway characteristics are necessary. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Second-by-second emissions, road grade, intersection control, speed, horizontal curvature, hybrid electric vehicles, K-S test |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4j92c547&r=all |
| By: | Hoang Quynh; Pasquier-Doumer Laure; Saint-Macary Camille |
| Abstract: | Ethnic inequality remains a persistent challenge for Viet Nam. This paper aims at better understanding this ethnic gap through exploring the formation of risk sharing networks in rural areas. It first investigates the differences in risk sharing networks between the ethnic minorities and the Kinh majority, in terms of size and similarity attributes of the networks. Second, it relies on the concept of ethnic homophily in link formation to explain the mechanisms leading to those differences.In particular, it disentangles the effect of demographic and local distribution of ethnic groups on risk-sharing network formation from cultural and social distance between ethnic groups, while controlling for the disparities in the geographical environment. Results show that ethnic minorities have smaller and less diversified networks than the majority.This is partly explained by differences in wealth and in the geographical environment. But ethnicity also plays a direct role in risk-sharing network formation through the combination of preferences to form a link with people from the same ethnic group (inbreeding homophily) and the relative size of ethnic groups conditioning the opportunities to form a link (baseline homophily). Inbreeding homophily is found to be stronger among the Kinh majority, leading to the exclusion of ethnic minorities from Kinh networks, which are supposed to be more efficient to cope with covariant risk because they are more diversified in the occupation and location of their members.This evidence suggests that inequalities among ethnic groups in Viet Nam are partly rooted in the cultural and social distances between them. |
| Keywords: | Risk-sharing network,Ethnic group,Ethnic inequality,Homophily |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-134&r=all |
| By: | Pastore, C.; Jones, A.M.; |
| Abstract: | What is the value added of grammar schools? This paper disentangles the effect of selection into an academic rather than a vocational track from that of individual background on long-term human capital. Identification relies on a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, using entry test scores for grammar schools, selective secondary schools in England, and estimating discontinuities in school assignment directly from the data. We find that for the marginal admitted student, grammar attendance positively affects educational attainment, likely due to higher-ability peers, while adult labour market outcomes and health are not affected. Observed differences in human capital by school type can largely be traced back to background. |
| Keywords: | selective schooling; human capital; health; fuzzy regression discontinuity design; |
| JEL: | I1 I28 C21 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:19/08&r=all |
| By: | Dowds, Jonathan; Sentoff, Karen; Sullivan, James; Aultman-Hall, Lisa |
| Abstract: | This report is one of two NCST Research Report documents produced as part of a project to advance the technical modeling tools for resiliency and adaptation planning, especially those used for criticality rankings. The official final technical report, Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Planning: Agency Roles and Workforce Development Needs, summarizes a climate adaptation framework and describes current planning practices and workforce needs of Departments of Transportation and other planning agencies. This additional technical documentation report looks specifically at the network data challenges of objectively assessing asset criticality, one step in the larger adaptation planning framework and a prerequisite for efficient allocation of limited adaptation resources. Specifically, this report explores the modeling resolution (in terms of the completeness of the road network and the spatial disaggregation of origin and destination matrices) needed to produce accurate criticality ratings. Original modeling work using a well-establish criticality measure, the Network Robustness Index (NRI), on both a small hypothetical network and the road network for Chittenden County, Vermont, demonstrated a need for higher resolution networks for criticality modeling. Since this part of the work was published in the Transportation Research Record it is only summarized here. A conceptual discussion of methods explored for creating networks for larger real-world areas that are sufficiently complete for criticality assessment is also included based on exploratory work using the travel demand model for the Greater Sacramento California area. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Data analysis, Databases, Disaster resilience, Geographic information systems, Network analysis (Planning), Roads, Traffic models |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8t60z813&r=all |
| By: | Federica Ciocchetta (Bank of Italy); Wanda Cornacchia (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We provide an update of the analytical framework to assess financial stability risks arising from the real estate sector in Italy. The enhancement concerns the definition of a new vulnerability indicator, measured in terms of the flow of total non-performing loans (NPLs) and not, as done previously, in terms of bad loans only. We focus separately on households (as an approximation for residential real estate, RRE) and on firms engaged in construction, management and investment services in the real estate sector (as an approximation for commercial real estate, CRE). Two early warning models are estimated using the new vulnerability indicator for RRE and CRE, respectively, as dependent variable. Both models exhibit good forecasting performances: the median predictions fit well the new vulnerability indicators in out-of-sample forecasts. Overall, models’ projections indicate that potential risks for banks stemming from the real estate sector will remain contained in the next few quarters. |
| Keywords: | real estate markets, early warning models, bayesian model averaging, banking crises |
| JEL: | C52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_493_19&r=all |
| By: | Ria Ivandic; Tom Kirchmaier; Stephen Machin |
| Abstract: | Empirical connections between local anti-Muslim hate crimes and international jihadi terror attacks are studied. Based upon rich administrative data from Greater Manchester Police, event studies of ten terror attacks reveal an immediate big spike up in Islamophobic hate crimes and incidents when an attack occurs. In subsequent days, hate crime is amplified by real-time media. It subsequently attenuates, but hate crime incidence cumulates to higher levels than prior to the series of attacks. The overall conclusion is that, even when they reside in places far away from where jihadi terror attacks take place, local Muslim populations face a media magnified likelihood of hate crime victimization following international terror attacks. This matters for community cohesion in places affected by discriminatory hate crime and, from both a policy and research perspective, means that the process of media magnification of hate crime needs to be better understood. |
| Keywords: | Islamophobic hate crime, jihadi terror attacks, media |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1615&r=all |
| By: | Marta De Philippis; Federico Rossi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the contribution of parental influence in accounting for cross-country gaps in human capital achievements. We argue that the cross-country variation in unobserved parental characteristics is at least as important as the one in commonly used observable proxies of parental socio-economic background. We infer this through an indirect empirical approach, based on the comparison of the school performance of second-generation immigrants. We document that, within the same host country or even the same school, students whose parents come from high-scoring countries in the PISA test do better than their peers with similar socio-economic backgrounds. Differential selection into emigration does not explain this finding. The result is larger when parents have little education and have recently emigrated, suggesting the importance of country-specific cultural traits that parents progressively lose as they integrate in the new host country, rather than of an intergenerational transmission of education quality. Unobserved parental characteristics account for about 15% of the cross-country variance in test scores, roughly doubling the overall contribution of parental influence. |
| JEL: | O15 J24 E24 I25 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1617&r=all |
| By: | Cruz Antonio; Mafambissa Fausto; Fernandes Francisco; Pereira Francisco |
| Abstract: | The construction sector value added in Mozambique grew at an average annual rate of 12.8 per cent in 1993–2015. Investment in the basic infrastructure of health, education, and housing improved families’ and communities’ living conditions. Investment in roads, communications, and office facilities boosted economic activities and reduced transaction costs.Construction value added grew by only 1.1 per cent in 2016. Challenges ahead include enabling a business environment conducive to expanding small and medium companies in the formal sector; reducing production costs and increasing international competitiveness; improving the prioritizing and programming of public investments; and improving training systems and basic public infrastructure quality. |
| Keywords: | Construction sector,Construction industries,national accounts,Public infrastructure |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-117&r=all |
| By: | Emanuele Ciani (Bank of Italy); Roberto Torrini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We reassess the role of regional imbalances in explaining the high household income inequality in Italy. In the first part of the work we use the Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to describe the trends in income inequality between and within areas since the early 2000s. We illustrate that the between-area inequality has been relatively stable, while the within-area component increased significantly after the recession and during the recovery. In 2016, the large geographical divide and the higher inequality within the South contributed to almost one fifth of national inequality. In the second part we show that the distribution of employment is key in explaining the regional differences in both average income and its dispersion. By means of simulations based on matching and reweighting, we estimate that national inequality would be reduced by 15 per cent if the distribution of work hours across southern households was similar to the one in the more developed Centre-North. Regional employment differentials are so important in determining overall inequality that income dispersion would decline substantially even if this increase in employment was associated with a drop in southern regions’ average wages. |
| Keywords: | inequality, North-South divide, work intensity |
| JEL: | D63 R10 J21 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_492_19&r=all |
| By: | Simon Briole (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | test scores,education,TIMSS,teacher quality,teaching practices,instruction time |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01993616&r=all |
| By: | Simon Briole (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eric Maurin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In France, secondary school teachers are evaluated every six or seven years by senior experts of the Ministry of education. These external evaluations mostly involve the supervision of one class session and a debrie_ng interview, but have nonetheless a direct impact on teachers' career advancement. In this paper, we show that these evaluations contribute to improving students' performance, especially in math. This e_ect is seen not only for students taught by teachers the year of their evaluations but also for students taught by the same teachers the subsequent years, suggesting that evaluations improve teachers' core pedagogical skills. These positive e_ects persist over time and are particularly salient in education priority schools, in contexts where teaching is often very challenging. |
| Keywords: | Teacher quality,Evaluation,Feedback,Teaching practices,Supervision,Education |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02102295&r=all |
| By: | Rand John; Tarp Finn; Trifkovi? Neda; Zille Helge |
| Abstract: | Focusing on labour productivity and working conditions, we investigate the benefits of industrial zones for private manufacturing enterprises in Myanmar.We find that being located in an industrial zone associates with higher labour productivity. Value added gains, however, are not transferred to employees. The results are robust to different measures of productivity and model specifications, as well as to controlling for the natural level of industrial agglomeration in a particular location.The findings in general indicate additional benefits of planned industrial activities as opposed to naturally driven industrial clustering. |
| Keywords: | Working conditions,Agglomeration,industrial zones |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-3&r=all |
| By: | Francis Bloch (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Bhaskar Dutta (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Stéphane Robin (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Min Zhu (Department of Economics, Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on laboratory experiments on the formation of partnerships in social networks. Agents randomly request favors and turn to their neighbors to form a partnership where they commit to provide the favor when requested. The formation of a partnership is modeled as a sequential game, which admits a unique subgame perfect equilibrium resulting in the formation of the maximum number of partnerships. Experimental results show that a large fraction of the subjects (75%) play according to their subgame perfect equilibrium strategy and reveals that the efficient maximum matching is formed over 78% of the times. When subjects deviate from their best responses, they accept to form partnerships too early. The incentive to accept when it is optimal to reject is positively correlated with subjects' risk aversion, and players employ simple heuristics-like the presence of a captive partner-to decide whether they should accept or reject the formation of a partnership. |
| Keywords: | social networks, partnerships, matchings in networks, non-stationary networks, laboratory experiments |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:1009&r=all |
| By: | Christine O'Farrelly; Ailbhe Booth; Mimi Tatlow-Golden; Beth Barker |
| Abstract: | Young children in communities facing socioeconomic disadvantage are increasingly targeted by school readiness interventions. Interventions are stronger if they address stakeholders’ priorities, yet children’s priorities for early school adjustment are rarely accounted for in intervention design including selection of outcome measures. The Children’s Thoughts about School Study (CTSS) examined young children’s accounts of their early school experiences, and their descriptions of what a new school starter would need to know. Mixed-method interviews were conducted with 42 kindergarten children in a socioeconomically deprived suburb of Dublin, Ireland. First, inductive thematic analysis identified 25 priorities across four domains: feeling able and enthusiastic for school; navigating friendships and victimisation; supportive environments with opportunities to play; bridging school and family life. Second, deductive analysis compared children’s priorities at item level against a school readiness outcome battery. Children’s priorities were assigned to three groups: (1) assessed by outcome measures (core academic competencies, aspects of self-regulation); (2) partially assessed (self-efficacy, social skills for friendship formation and avoiding victimisation, creative thinking, play); and (3) not assessed by outcome measures (school liking, school environment, family-school involvement). This analysis derived from children’s own perspectives suggests that readiness interventions aiming to support early school adjustment would benefit from considering factors children consider salient. It offers recommendations for advancing conceptual frameworks, improving assessment, and identifying new targets for supporting children and schools. In doing so we provide a platform for children’s priorities to be integrated into the policies and practices that shape their early lives. |
| Keywords: | Children’s perspectives; School readiness; School adjustment; School experience; Socioeconomic disadvantage; Early intervention |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/10150&r=all |
| By: | Ragland, David R; MacLeod, Kara E; McMillan, Tracy; Doggett, Sarah; Felschundneff, Grace |
| Abstract: | The mobility needs of an aging population is one of the most substantial challenges facing California in the coming decades. The number of residents age 65 and older is expected to double between 2012 and 2050, and the number age 85 and above is expected to increase by over 70% between 2010 and 2030. Declines in physical function related to age may reduce mobility options dramatically. A survey of 510 residents age 55 and older in Contra Costa County was conducted to determine mobility patterns and limitations related to age and other factors. Results of the survey indicate that a majority of seniors are car dependent. However, some older adults miss important activities due to mobility limitations associated with increasing age, poorer health, living alone, not having a licensed driver in the household, and having a disability. Mobility options are also limited in some geographic areas and demographic groups. Importantly, older adults want to “age in place.” Based on these findings and those in related studies, the travel options and the quality of life for older adults, now and in the future, can be greatly enhanced if efforts are made to develop mobility solutions beyond use of private vehicles. The findings support the recommendations of recent regional plans such as the Coordinated Public Transit–Human Services Transportation Plan (2018), adopted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) of the San Francisco Bay Area, which recommends supporting a range of mobility options centered around shared mobility and accessibility for populations at risk for limited mobility. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Mobility, aged, travel behavior, surveys, demographics |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8p7283gg&r=all |
| By: | Ketterer, Tobias; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | In this paper we assess whether both the levels and the degree of change in government quality influence regional economic performance in the European Union (EU) and, in particular, in its lagging regions. The results of the econometric analysis, covering 249 NUTS2 regions for the period between 1999 and 2013, suggest that: a) government quality matters for regional growth; b) relative improvements in quality of government are a powerful driver of development; c) one-size-fits-all policies for lagging regions are not the solution; d) government quality improvements are essential for low growth regions; and e) in low income regions basic endowment shortages are still the main barrier to development. In particular, low growth regions in Southern Europe stand to benefit the most from improvements in government quality, while in low income regions of Central and Eastern Europe, investments in the traditional drivers of growth remain the main factors behind successful economic trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; EU; Government quality; Institutional Change; regions |
| JEL: | R11 R50 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13712&r=all |
| By: | Delaporte, Isaure |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to determine the immigrants' ethnic identity, i.e. the degree of identification to the culture and society of the country of origin and the host country and second, to investigate the impact of ethnic identity on the immigrants' employment outcomes. Using rich survey data from France and relying on a polychoric principal component analysis, this paper proposes two richer measures of ethnic identity than the ones used in the literature, namely: i) the degree of commitment to the origin country culture and ii) the extent to which the individual holds multiple identities. The paper investigates the impact of the ethnic identity measures on the employment outcomes of immigrants in France. The results show that having multiple identities improves the employment outcomes of the migrants and contribute to help design effective post-immigration policies. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Identity,Immigration,Employment,Polychoric Principal Component Analysis |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J71 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:345&r=all |
| By: | Stark, Oded; Budzinski, Wiktor |
| Abstract: | We study how the work effort and output of non-migrants in a village economy are affected when a member of the village population migrates. Given that individuals dislike low relative income, and that migration modifies the social space of the non-migrants, we show why and how the non-migrants adjust their work effort and output in response to the migration generated change in their social space. When migration is negatively selective such that the least productive individual departs, the output of the non-migrants increases. While as a consequence of this migration statically calculated average productivity rises, we identify a dynamic repercussion that compounds the static one. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2019–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:288284&r=all |
| By: | Slaymaker, Rachel; O'Toole, Conor; McQuinn, Kieran; Fahy, Mike |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp613&r=all |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Debopam; Dupas, Pascaline; Kanaya, Shin |
| Abstract: | Many real-life settings of consumer choice involve social interactions, causing targeted policies to have spillover effects. This paper develops novel empirical tools for analyzing demand and welfare effects of policy interventions in binary choice settings with social interactions. Examples include subsidies for health product adoption and vouchers for attending a high-achieving school. We establish the connection between econometrics of large games and Brock-Durlauf-type interaction models, under both I.I.D. and spatially correlated unobservables. We develop new convergence results for associated beliefs and estimates of preference parameters under increasing domain spatial asymptotics. Next, we show that even with fully parametric specifications and unique equilibrium, choice data, that are sufficient for counterfactual demand prediction under interactions, are insufficient for welfare calculations. This is because distinct underlying mechanisms producing the same interaction coefficient can imply different welfare effects and deadweight-loss from a policy intervention. Standard index-restrictions imply distribution-free bounds on welfare. We illustrate our results using experimental data on mosquito-net adoption in rural Kenya. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13707&r=all |
| By: | Kelly, Jane; Le Blanc, Julia; Lydon, Reamonn |
| Abstract: | Using household survey data, we document evidence of a loosening of credit standards in Euro area countries that experienced a property price boom-and-bust cycle. Borrowers in these countries exhibited significantly higher loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios in the run up to the financial crisis, and an increasing tendency towards longer-term loans compared to borrowers in other countries. In recent years, despite the long period of historically low interest rates and substantial house price increases in some countries, we do not find similar credit easing as before the crisis. Instead, we find evidence of a considerable change in borrower characteristics since 2010: new borrowers are older and have higher incomes than before the crisis. JEL Classification: E5, G01, G17, G28, R39 |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, financial regulation, financial stability, macroprudential policy, survey data |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192277&r=all |
| By: | Greaves, Ellen; Hussain, Iftikhar; Rabe, Birgitta; Rasul, Imran |
| Abstract: | Family and school based inputs determine children's cognitive achievement. We study the interaction between family and school inputs by identifying the causal impact of information about school quality on parental time investment into children. Our study context is England, where credible information on school quality is provided by a nationwide school inspection regime. Schools are inspected at short notice, with school ratings being based on hard and soft information. Such soft information is not necessarily known to parents ex ante, so inspection ratings can provide news to parents that plausibly shifts inputs into their children. We study this using household panel data linked to administrative records on school performance and inspection ratings. We observe some households being interviewed prior to their school being inspected (the control group), and others being interviewed post inspection (the treated group). Treatment assignment is thus determined by a household's survey date relative to the school inspection date. This assignment is shown to be as good as random. We use a forecast model to construct parental priors over school quality, and estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in response to good and bad news about school quality. We find that when parents receive good news they significantly decrease time investment into their children. This implies that for the average household, beliefs over school quality and parental inputs are substitutes. We go on to discuss insights our data and design provide on the nationwide inspections regime and: (i) its distributional impacts across households and schools; (ii) the impact it has on test scores through multiple margins of endogenous response of parents and children. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for interlinked private responses by families to policy inputs into education. |
| Date: | 2019–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2019-03&r=all |
| By: | Ganau, Roberto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which regional institutional quality shapes firm labour productivity in western Europe, using a sample of manufacturing firms from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain, observed over the period 2009-2014. The results indicate that regional institutional quality positively affects firms' labour productivity and that government effectiveness is the most important institutional determinant of productivity levels. However, how institutions shape labour productivity depends on the type of firm considered. Smaller, less capital endowed and high-tech sectors are three of the types of firms whose productivity is most favourably affected by good and effective institutions at the regional level. |
| Keywords: | Cross-Country Analysis; labour productivity; Manufacturing firms; Regional Institutions; Western Europe |
| JEL: | C23 D24 H41 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13703&r=all |
| By: | Roantree, Barra; Regan, Mark; Callan, Tim; Savage, Michael; Walsh, John R. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp610&r=all |
| By: | Ailbhe Booth; Christine O'Farrelly; Eilis Hennessy; Orla Doyle |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of self-regulation for school readiness and success across the lifespan, little is known about children’s conceptions of this important ability. Using mixed-method interviews, this research examined kindergarten children’s (n?=?57) perspectives on self-regulation in a disadvantaged area in Dublin, Ireland. Children depicted school as requiring regulation of their emotional, cognitive and behavioural responses. They characterised school as a dynamic setting, placing emphasis on the regulatory challenges of the outdoor environment. Children also described difficulties associated with navigating complex social interactions, often without assistance from external supports. The results inform strategies to support children’s emerging self-regulation abilities. |
| Keywords: | Child development; Children’s perspectives; School readiness; Self-regulation; Socioeconomic disadvantage |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/10149&r=all |
| By: | Timmons, Shane; Barjaková, Martina; McElvaney, Terry; Lunn, Pete |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp612&r=all |
| By: | Marie-Laure Cabon-Dhersin (CREAM - Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Emmanuelle Taugourdeau (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the organization and the distribution of research activities between nearby public and private laboratories. In a three-stage game, the 'size', 'location' and 'research effort' are determined under the assumption that public spillovers depend on the location of the private laboratory. We compare two scenarios in which the research efforts are decided either cooperatively or non-cooperatively. We show that for particular levels of subsidy granted to the public lab, higher funding favors spatial proximity and increases the total research effort in the cooperative case, while it diminishes the total effort in the non-cooperative one. Moreover, compared with the non-cooperative case, research cooperation i) may increase the distance between the two laboratories, ii) makes the public laboratory smaller, iii) increases the total research effort, but iv) is detrimental to the payoff of the whole research sector. |
| Keywords: | research cooperation,spatial location,public subsidy |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02023666&r=all |