nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2019‒02‒04
58 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Household Location in English Cities By David Cuberes; Jennifer Roberts; Cristina Sechel
  2. The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London By Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M.
  3. Teacher effectiveness and classroom composition By Aucejo, Esteban M.; Coate, Patrick; Fruehwirth, Jane Cooley; Kelly, Sean; Mozenter, Zachary
  4. The contribution of foreign migration to local labor market adjustment By Amior, Michael
  5. The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany By Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen; Kvasnicka, Michael
  6. Does Pollution Drive Achievement? The Effect of Traffic Pollution on Academic Performance By Jennifer Heissel; Claudia Persico; David Simon
  7. Traffic Noise in Georgia: Sound Levels and Inequality By Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Coughlin, Cletus C.; Crews, Jonas C.
  8. Fiscal and education spillovers from charter school expansion By Ridley, Matthew; Terrier, Camille
  9. Geographical Scale, Industrial Diversity and Regional Economic Stability By Jing Chen
  10. U.S. Metropolitan House Price Dynamics By Elias Oikarinen; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Janne Engblom
  11. Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared vehicles (ACES) and public finance: an explorative analysis By Martin Adler; Stefanie Peer; Tanja Sinozic
  12. The economic impacts of constraining second home investments By Hilber, Christian A. L.; Schöni, Olivier
  13. US city size distribution and space By González-Val, Rafael
  14. Who teaches the teachers? A RCT of peer-to-peer observation and feedback in 181 schools By Murphy, Richard; Weinhardt, Felix; Wyness, Gill
  15. Why does education reduce crime? By Bell, Brian; Costa, Rui; Machin, Stephen
  16. Housing Expenditures and Income Inequality By Christian Dustmann; Bernd Fitzenberger; Markus Zimmermann
  17. The impact of aircraft noise and complaints on Brisbane residential property investment performance By Chris Eves
  18. Revisiting the House Price-Income Relationship By Elias Oikarinen; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Janne Engblom
  19. Government institutions and the dynamics of urban growth in China By Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Min Zhang
  20. The Economic Complexity of US Metropolitan Areas By Benedikt S. L. Fritz; Robert A. Manduca
  21. Property Tax in African Secondary Cities: Insights from the Cases of Kisumu (Kenya) and M’Bour (Senegal) By Cirolia, Lisa R.; Mizes, James C.
  22. The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements By Treb Allen; Costas Arkolakis
  23. Strengthening teachers in disadvantaged schools: Evidence from an intervention in Sweden’s poorest city districts By Hall, Caroline; Lundin, Martin; Sibbmark, Kristina
  24. Inequality of Opportunity in Education: Accounting for the Contributions of Sibs, Schools and Sorting across East Africa By Anand, Paul; Behrman, Jere R.; Dang, Hai-Anh; Jones, Sam
  25. The missing ingredient: Distance - Internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States By Viola von Berlepsch; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  26. History dependence in the housing market By Bracke, Philippe; Tenreyro, Silvana
  27. Transitioning to Alternative Structures for Housing Finance: An Update By Congressional Budget Office
  28. Incubators, accelerators and regional economic development By Madaleno, Margarida; Nathan, Max; Overman, Henry; Waights, Sevrin
  29. Home Ownership and Monetary Policy Transmission By Winfried Koeniger; Marc-Antoine Ramelet
  31. The efficiency of Uruguayan secondary schools: Evidence based on PISA 2015 data By Paola Azar; Federico González; Leonel Muinelo-Gallo
  32. How do households value the future? Evidence from property taxes By Koster, Hans R. A.; Pinchbeck, Edward W.
  33. Federal Support for Financing State and Local Transportation and Water Infrastructure By Congressional Budget Office
  34. Impact of the German real estate transfer: Tax on the commercial real estate market By Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Dresselhaus, Carolin
  35. Education Spillovers within the Workplace By Bentsen, Kristian Hedeager; Munch, Jakob R.; Schaur, Georg
  36. In-State College Enrollment and Later Life Location Decisions By Winters, John V.
  38. Priority Roads: the Political Economy of Africa's Interior-to-Coast Roads By Roberto Bonfatti; Yuan Gu; Steven (S.) Poelhekke
  39. Raising Large-Scale Real Estate Capital from Opportunistic Overseas Deep Value Investors By Joseph W. Williams
  40. Spatial spillovers of the cultural employment growth in Brazilian municipalities By de Santana Ribeiro, Luiz Carlos; Carneiro Rios Lopes, Thiago Henrique; Borges Ferreira Neto, Amir; Rodrigues dos Santos, Fernanda
  41. The Formation of Prosociality: Causal Evidence on the Role of Social Environment By Fabian Kosse; Thomas Deckers; Pia Pinger; Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch; Armin Falk
  42. Growing up in Ethnic Enclaves: Language Proficiency and Educational Attainment of Immigrant Children By Alexander M. Danzer; Carsten Feuerbaum; Marc Piopiunik; Ludger Woessmann
  43. The Financial Decisions of Immigrant and Native Households: Evidence from Italy By Graziella Bertocchi; Marianna Brunetti; Anzelika Zaiceva
  44. The spatial impacts of a massive rail disinvestment program: the Beeching Axe By Gibbons, Stephen; Heblich, Stephan; Pinchbeck, Ted
  45. The productivity-wage premium: does size still matter in a service economy? By Berlingieri, Giuseppe; Calligaris, Sara; Criscuolo, Chiara
  46. The effects of language skills on immigrant employment and wages in Italy By Pieroni, Luca; d'Agostino, Giorgio; Lanari, Donatella
  47. Accounting for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the Federal Budget By Congressional Budget Office
  48. Quantifying wide economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: existing evidence and future directions By Graham, Daniel J.; Gibbons, Stephen
  49. Unemployment Volatility and Networks By Steven Kivinen
  50. The Deterrent Effect of an Anti-Minaret Vote on Foreigners’ Location Choices By Slotwinski, Michaela; Stutzer, Alois
  51. Is residential property the ultimate hedge against inflation ? new evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and nonlinear ARDL By Aqsha, Nur Suhairah; Masih, Mansur
  52. Marshallian vs Jacobs Effects: Which One Is Stronger? Evidence for Russia Unemployment Dynamics By Demidova, Olga; Kolyagina, Alena; Pastore, Francesco
  53. The network effects of NGOs on social capital and innovation of smallholder farmers. A case study in Peru By D. Hartmann; A. Arata; M. Bezerra; F.L. Pinheiro
  54. Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States By Alan J. Auerbach; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Daniel Murphy
  55. Immigrants’ over-education and wage penalty. Evidence from Uruguay By Luciana Méndez-Errico
  56. The changing geography of intergenerational mobility By Bell, Brian; Blundell, Jack; Machin, Stephen
  57. Higher Education Supply, Neighbourhood effects and Economic Welfare By Elena Cottini; Paolo Ghinetti; Simone Moriconi;
  58. Risk Aversion and Entrepreneurship: New Evidence Exploiting Exposure to Massive Earthquakes in Italy By de Blasio, Guido; De Paola, Maria; Poy, Samuele; Scoppa, Vincenzo

  1. By: David Cuberes (Clark University, US); Jennifer Roberts (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK); Cristina Sechel (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)
    Abstract: This paper is the first to test an amenity-based sorting model for cities in England. We use individual level data on urban households for the period 2011-2016, combining this with data on local amenities to explore household location under both monocentric and polycentric assumptions about city structure. On average we find that there is no systematic relationship between income and household distance to the ‘city centre’, once neighbourhood amenities and other household characteristics are taken into account. Household heterogeneity is important, and as well as influencing location directly, we also find interactions between the effects of household characteristics and local amenities. There are also important differences between cities in England; for example higher income households seem to live further from the city centre in Birmingham, but closer to it in Newcastle. Our results reveal some important differences to the US evidence that has dominated this literature. Migrant status is important in England, and on average migrants live much closer to the city centre than non-migrants, but race per se does not seem to influence household location. Also it appears that in England only the employed (and those above the poverty line) are influenced by the availability of public transport; which is in direct opposition to the US evidence. Overall we conclude that the standard urban land use model provides a partial explanation of how households sort by income in cities, but that the role of amenities and household heterogeneity is large and warrants more attention.
    Keywords: cities; household location; income; amenities
    JEL: R20 R23
    Date: 2019–01
  2. By: Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M.
    Abstract: Modern metropolitan areas involve large concentrations of economic activity and the transport of millions of people each day between their residence and workplace. We use the revolution in transport technology from the invention of steam railways, newly-constructed spatially-disaggregated data for London from 1801-1921, and a quantitative urban model to provide evidence on the role of these commuting flows in supporting such concentrations of economic activity. Steam railways dramatically reduced travel times and permitted the first large scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that our model is able to account for the observed changes in the organization of economic activity, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In counterfactuals, we find that removing the entire railway network reduces the population and the value of land and buildings in Greater London by 20 percent or more, and brings down commuting into the City of London from more than 370,000 to less than 60,000 workers.
    Keywords: agglomeration; urbanization; transportation
    JEL: O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2018–09
  3. By: Aucejo, Esteban M.; Coate, Patrick; Fruehwirth, Jane Cooley; Kelly, Sean; Mozenter, Zachary
    Abstract: This paper studies how the effectiveness of teachers varies by classroom composition. We combine random assignment of teachers to classrooms with rich measures of teacher effectiveness based on a popular observational protocol, Framework for Teaching, to overcome key endogeneity concerns related to measurement and matching. We find that complementarities between classroom composition and teaching practice play a significant role in student achievement. We identify two main mechanisms that are driving this result: 1) negative interactions between challenging and/or student-centered practices and heterogeneity in classroom prior achievement, and 2) positive interactions between classroom management skills and average classroom prior achievement. Our findings illustrate the multidimensional nature of teacher effectiveness and have important implications for prescribing teaching practice and evaluating teachers. Simulations show that teacher rankings change substantially simply from within-school classroom reallocations, suggesting the need for caution when using popular teaching evaluation rubrics in high-stakes settings.
    Keywords: teacher; practices; peer effects; effectiveness
    JEL: I2 I20 I21
    Date: 2018–09
  4. By: Amior, Michael
    Abstract: The US suffers from large regional disparities in employment rates which have persisted for many decades. It has been argued that foreign migration offers a remedy: it “greases the wheels” of the labor market by accelerating the adjustment of local population. Remarkably, I find that new migrants account for 30 to 60 percent of the average population response to local demand shocks since 1960. However, population growth is not significantly more responsive in locations better supplied by new migrants: the larger foreign contribution is almost entirely offset by a reduced contribution from internal mobility. This is fundamentally a story of “crowding out”: I estimate that new foreign migrants to a commuting zone crowd out existing US residents one-for-one. The magnitude of this effect is puzzling, and it may be somewhat overstated by undercoverage of migrants in the census. Nevertheless, it appears to conflict with much of the existing literature, and I attempt to explain why. Methodologically, I offer tools to identify the local impact of immigration in the context of local dynamics.
    Keywords: migration; geographical mobility; local labor markets; employment
    JEL: J61 J64 R23
    Date: 2018–11
  5. By: Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Kvasnicka, Michael (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)
    Abstract: We study the impact of the 2015 mass arrival of refugees to Germany on residential housing rents. Using unique data on end of year county-level refugee populations and data on monthly offers of flats for rent from Germany’s leading online property broker Immobilienscout24, we find strong evidence in difference-in-differences regressions for a negative effect of refugee immigration on rental prices. Adverse price effects, however, appear attenuated in the heyday of the crisis in late 2015 if a larger share of refugees is housed in decentralized accommodation. Various robustness checks corroborate our findings, including IV regressions that exploit for identification information on the pre-crisis location of refugee reception centers and group quarters.
    Keywords: housing rents, refugee migration, Germany
    JEL: F22 R23 R21 R31
    Date: 2018–12
  6. By: Jennifer Heissel; Claudia Persico; David Simon
    Abstract: We examine the effect of school traffic pollution on student outcomes by leveraging variation in wind patterns for schools the same distance from major highways. We compare within-student achievement for students transitioning between schools near highways, where one school has had greater levels of pollution because it is downwind of a highway. Students who move from an elementary/middle school that feeds into a “downwind” middle/high school in the same zip code experience decreases in test scores, more behavioral incidents, and more absences, relative to when they transition to an upwind school. Even within zip codes, microclimates can contribute to inequality.
    JEL: I20 I24 I3 Q53 R4
    Date: 2019–01
  7. By: Cohen, Jeffrey P. (University of Connecticut); Coughlin, Cletus C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Crews, Jonas C. (Walton Family Foundation)
    Abstract: Using Lorenz-type curves, means tests, ordinary least squares, and locally weighted regressions (LWR), we examine the relative burdens of whites, blacks, and Hispanics in Georgia from road and air traffic noise. We find that whites bear less noise than either blacks or Hispanics and that blacks tend to experience more traffic noise than Hispanics. While every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) showed that blacks experienced relatively more noise than average, such a result did not hold for Hispanics in roughly half of the MSAs. We find much heterogeneity across Census tracts using LWR. For most Census tracts, higher black and Hispanic population shares are associated with increased noise. However, 5.5 percent of the coefficients for blacks and 18.9 percent for Hispanics are negative, suggesting larger population shares are associated with less noise. The noise LWR marginal effects for black populations across most tracts in the state are consistent with diminishing marginal noise from additional black population, while those in Atlanta exhibit diminishing marginal noise for Hispanics. In many regions of the state where the potential for health-damaging noise exists, we find relatively high disproportionality in noise experienced by the black and Hispanic populations compared to the rest of the overall population. Our findings underscore the importance of using nonparametric estimation approaches to unveil spatial heterogeneity in applied urban and housing economics analyses.
    Keywords: traffic noise; Lorenz curves; nonparametric regressions
    JEL: C25 Q53 R41
    Date: 2018–09–16
  8. By: Ridley, Matthew; Terrier, Camille
    Abstract: The fiscal and educational consequences of charter expansion for non-charter students are central issues in the debate over charter schools. Do charter schools drain resources and high-achieving peers from non-charter schools? This paper answers these questions using an empirical strategy that exploits a 2011 reform that lifted caps on charter schools for underperforming districts in Massachusetts. We use complementary synthetic control instrumental variables (IV-SC) and differences-in-differences instrumental variables (IV-DiD) estimators. The results suggest greater charter attendance increases per-pupil expenditures in traditional public schools and induces them to shift expenditure from support services to instruction and salaries. At the same time, charter expansion has a small positive effect on non-charter students’ achievement.
    Keywords: charter school; competition; fiscal spillover; achievement; synthetic control
    JEL: C10 C3 H23 H39 I22 I28
    Date: 2018–09
  9. By: Jing Chen (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: The empirical relationship between economic diversity and economic stability varies when it is measured at different geographical scales. This paper evaluates the role of geographical scales in assessing this diversity-stability relationship among counties, states, Economic Areas (EAs), metropolitan counties and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the contiguous U.S. When choosing geographical units to analyze regional economic structure, it is necessary that the geographical units be large enough in population and employment to quantify effectively the regional economic structure. In addition, this paper proposes that geographical units also should be functionally aggregated regions as they better represent spatial interactions than formal regions do, and they consider the possible temporal variations in the boundaries of regional economic structures.
    Keywords: Geographical Scale, Industrial Diversity, Economic Stability, Spatial Interactions
    JEL: C40 R11 O11
    Date: 2018–12
  10. By: Elias Oikarinen; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Janne Engblom
    Abstract: Using data for the 50 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), this study contributes to the literature on regional heterogeneity in house price dynamics in several ways. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for regional heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non- stationary but cointegrated data. We formally test for regional differences and explore the relationships between the price elasticity of housing supply and the income elasticity of prices, as well as bubble size and duration. The estimated mean long-term elasticity of house prices with respect to aggregate personal income is 0.86 across MSAs, but varies considerably between cities. Short-term momentum and reversion dynamics also show substantial regional heterogeneity. The dynamics are significantly associated with the price elasticity of housing supply. The long-term income elasticity generally is greater, short-term momentum is stronger, and adjustment towards the long-term fundamental price level is weaker in the more supply-inelastic MSAs. Hence, while house price cycles around long-term fundamental price levels typically are highly synchronized across MSAs within the same region, house price bubbles tend to be larger and longer-lasting in the MSAs with more inelastic housing supply.
    Keywords: bolha; Bubble; cross-sectional dependence; dados do painel; Dependência transversal; dinâmica; Dynamics; House Price; Panel Data; preço da casa
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–09–01
  11. By: Martin Adler (VU University; AtAdlerAdvisory, The Netherlands); Stefanie Peer (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Tanja Sinozic (Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA), Austrian Academy of Sciences (OEAW))
    Abstract: This paper discusses the implications of autonomous-connected-electric-shared vehicles (ACES) for public finance, which have so far been widely ignored. In OECD countries, 5-12% of federal and up to 30% of local tax revenue are currently from fuel and vehicle taxation. The diffusion of ACES will likely reduce these important sources of government revenues, while also affecting transport-related government expenditures. We argue that the realization of socioeconomic benefits of ACES depends on the implementation of tailored public finance policies. In particular, the introduction of road tolls in line with ‘user pays’ and ‘polluter pays’ principles will become more attractive. Moreover, innovation in taxation schemes to fit the changing technological circumstances may alter the (relative) importance of levels of governance in transport policy making, likely shifting power towards local (in particular urban) governmental levels. We finally argue that due to path-dependencies, and the risk of lock-in effects in sub-optimal public finance regimes, further research and near-term policy action regarding ACES is required.
    Keywords: autonomous connected electric shared vehicles; public finance; taxation; fiscal revenues; fiscal expenditures,disruptive technologies; path-dependency; technological transition; political economy; multilevel-governance
    JEL: R40 R50 H21 H23 H54 H71 O18 O33
    Date: 2019–01–27
  12. By: Hilber, Christian A. L.; Schöni, Olivier
    Abstract: We investigate how political backlash against wealthy investors in high-amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’, which banned the construction of new second homes in desirable tourist locations. Consistent with our model, we find that the ban substantially lowered (increased) the price growth of primary (second) homes and increased the unemployment growth rate in the affected areas. Our findings suggest that the negative effect on local economies dominated the positive amenity-preservation effect. Constraining second home investments in locations where primary and second homes are not close substitutes may reinforce wealth inequality.
    Keywords: second homes; wealth inequality; land use regulation; housing policy; house prices; unemployment
    JEL: D63 G12 R11 R21 R31 R52
    Date: 2018–07
  13. By: González-Val, Rafael
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the spatial city size distribution in the United States. We propose a new distance-based approach to analyse the influence of distance on the city size distribution parameter, by considering the Pareto distribution and using data from different definitions of US cities in 2010. Considering all possible combinations of cities within a 300-mile radius, our results indicate that the Pareto distribution cannot be rejected in most cases regardless of city size. Placebo regressions validate our results, thereby confirming the significant effect of geography on the Pareto exponent.
    Keywords: space, city size distribution, distance-based approach, Pareto distribution, Zipf’s law
    JEL: C12 C14 R11 R12
    Date: 2018–12–14
  14. By: Murphy, Richard; Weinhardt, Felix; Wyness, Gill
    Abstract: It is well established that teachers are the most important in-school factor in determining student outcomes. However, to date there is scant robust quantitative research demonstrating that teacher training programs can have lasting impacts on student test scores. To address this gap, we conduct and evaluate a teacher peer-to-peer observation and feedback program under Randomized Control Trial (RCT) conditions. Half of 181 volunteer primary schools in England were randomly selected to participate in the two year program. We find that students of treated teachers perform no better on national tests a year after the program ended. The absence of external observers and incentives in our program may explain the contrast of these results with the small body of work which shows a positive influence of teacher observation and feedback on pupil outcomes.
    Keywords: education; teachers; RCT; peer mentoring
    JEL: I21 I28 M53
    Date: 2018–08
  15. By: Bell, Brian; Costa, Rui; Machin, Stephen
    Abstract: Prior research shows reduced criminality to be a beneficial consequence of education policies that raise the school leaving age. This paper studies how crime reductions occurred in a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. These reforms changed the shape of crime-age profiles, reflecting both a temporary incapacitation effect and a more sustained, longer run crime reducing effect. In contrast to the previous research looking at earlier US education reforms, crime reduction does not arise solely as a result of education improvements, and so the observed longer run effect is interpreted as dynamic incapacitation. Additional evidence based on longitudinal data combined with an education reform from a different setting in Australia corroborates the finding of dynamic incapacitation underpinning education policy-induced crime reduction.
    Keywords: crime age profiles; school dropout; compulsory schooling laws
    JEL: I2 K42
    Date: 2018–08
  16. By: Christian Dustmann; Bernd Fitzenberger; Markus Zimmermann
    Abstract: In this paper, we show that, in terms of real disposable income, changes in housing expenditures dramatically exacerbate the trend of income inequality that has risen sharply in Germany since the mid-1990s. More specifically, whereas the 50/10 ratio of net household income increasesby 22 percentage points (pp) between 1993 and 2013, it increases by 62 pp for income net of housing expenditures. At the same time, the income share of housing expenditures rises disproportionally for the bottom income quintile and falls for the top quintile. Factors contributing to these trends include a decline in the relative costs of homeownership versus renting, changes in household structure, and residential mobility toward larger cities. Younger cohorts spend more on housing and save less than older cohorts did at the same age, with possibly negative consequences for wealth accumulation, particularly for those at the bottom of the income distribution.
    Keywords: income inequality, housing expenditures
    JEL: D31 R21
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Chris Eves
    Abstract: Any increase in airport operations or development, with increased flight movements, tends to be an issue in major cities and towns. Whenever such proposals are first advertised there is usually an increased public backlash based on a number of issues such as impact on lifestyle, health as well as the premise that they believe that the value of their residential properties will decrease and it will become more difficult to sell their properties.Since the early 1970s there have been an increasing number of academic research papers demonstrating that aircraft noise reduces residential property values. At the same time there have also been a number of popular media reports that state value features such as proximity to the CBD, good transport links, access to good schools and services are more important than the location of the house under a flight path or close to an airport. This is particularly the case in very high density cities, with airports close to the major business centres.This study compares median and average house prices over the period 1988 to 2013; across 36 suburbs of Brisbane to assess the long term impact of aircraft noise on residential property capital growth and volatility. These suburbs cover locations directly under the existing flight paths, areas of differing levels of noise complaints and locations not under flight paths nor subject to aircraft noise complaints. All sales transactions for these suburbs have been analysed to determine if there is any impact of aircraft noise on the long term investment performance of the Brisbane residential property market.Results show that suburbs under flight paths in Brisbane, Australia subject to aircraft noise on a long term capital gain basis have performed equally, if not better, than less or not affected locations in Brisbane based. On average annual capital returns and risk/return ratios for a range of suburbs from high socio-economic status to low middle socio-economic status have performed at similar levels regardless of location under flight paths. The movement in sales volume from year to year has also been very similar indicating that affected locations do not always result in reduced sales volume activity.
    Keywords: Aircraft noise; aircraft noise complaints; property performance; property prices; Residential Property
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–09–01
  18. By: Elias Oikarinen; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Janne Engblom
    Abstract: This study undertakes a systematic analysis of the relationship between house prices and personal income by deriving a simple spatial equilibrium model and conducting an empirical analysis using data for the 50 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for the period 1980-2014. In the empirical analysis, we apply state-of-the-art panel data analysis tools, define income in multiple ways, allow for regional heterogeneity, and control for spatial dependence and endogeneity. Both theoretical considerations and empirical findings lead us to conclude that the house price-income ratio is not a good indicator for house price bubbles. We find that the house price-income ratio is not stable in the long run for most cities. In contrast, panel regression models that allow for regional heterogeneity and control for endogeneity yield stationary equations for house prices in most MSAs. Among other findings, we show that it is important to allow for heterogeneity across locations when analyzing the relationship between house prices and income. The findings also have implications for trends in the wealth-income relationship.
    Keywords: cross-sectional dependence; Dados do paneil; Dependência transversal; Equilíbrio espacial; Heterogeneidade regional; House Prices; Panel Data; personal income; Preços de casas; regional heterogeneity; Renda pessoal; spatial equilibrium
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–09–01
  19. By: Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Min Zhang
    Abstract: Economic growth in China in recent decades has largely rested on the dynamism of its cities. High economic growth has coincided with measures aimed at improving the efficiency of local governments and with a mounting political drive to curb corruption. Yet the connection between government institutions and urban growth in China remains poorly understood. This paper is the first to look into the connection between government efficiency and corruption, on the one hand, and urban growth in China, on the other and to assess what is the role of institutions relative to more traditional factors for economic growth in Chinese cities. Using panel data for 283 cities over the period between 2003 and 2014, the results show that urban growth in China is a consequence of a combination of favourable human capital, innovation, density, local conditions, foreign direct investment (FDI), and, city-level government institutions. Both government quality ? especially for those cities with the best governments ? and the fight against corruption at the city level have a direct effect on urban growth. Measures to tackle corruption at the provincial level matter in a more indirect way, by raising or lowering the returns of other growth-inducing factors.
    Keywords: Economic growth, cities, government efficiency, corruption, China
    JEL: O43 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Benedikt S. L. Fritz; Robert A. Manduca
    Abstract: We calculate measures of economic complexity for US metropolitan areas for the years 2007-2015 based on industry employment data. We show that the concept of economic complexity translates well from the cross-country to the regional setting, and is able to incorporate local as well as traded industries. The largest cities and the Northeast of the US have the highest average complexity, while traded industries are more complex than local-serving ones on average, but with some exceptions. On average, regions with higher complexity have a higher income per capita, but those regions also were more affected by the financial crisis. Finally, economic complexity is a significant predictor of within-decreases in income per capita and population. Our findings highlight the importance of subnational regions, and particularly metropolitan areas, as units of economic geography.
    Date: 2019–01
  21. By: Cirolia, Lisa R.; Mizes, James C.
    Abstract: This working paper adopts an urban lens on property tax. It focuses specifically on how property tax operates in two African secondary cities, Kisumu (Kenya) and M’Bour (Senegal). The paper identifies three factors shaping the low levels of property tax collection in the two case cities. These are the misalignment between the spatial scale of property tax collection and the utilisation of funds; constrained resources and capacity for collection; and tax administrators’ own perceptions of the legitimacy of property taxation. These factors have tangible effects on the everyday workings of property taxation. The cases also demonstrate that tax administrators make sustained efforts to improve taxation. While the same types of challenges are evident in the cities of Kisumu and M’Bour, how administrators respond reflects the unique and particular context of each place and the perspective of the administrators who work there. This finding confirms that local tax administrators are not simply the recipients of tax policy, but are active agents in shaping how policies operate in practice. Overall, improving property taxation requires interventions to address alignment, capacity, and legitimacy. However, rather than attempting top-down reform, this research suggests that building on the perceptions and practices of tax administrators will offer a more effective pathway to incrementally improving property tax in Africa’s smaller urban centres.
    Keywords: Finance, Governance,
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Treb Allen; Costas Arkolakis
    Abstract: We develop a general equilibrium geographic framework to characterize the welfare effect of transportation infrastructure investments. We tackle three distinct but conflating challenges: First, we offer an analytical characterization of the routing problem and, in particular, how infrastructure investment between any two connected locations decreases the total trade costs between all pairs of locations. Second, we characterize how this cost reduction affects welfare within a standard general equilibrium geography setup where market inefficiencies arise due to agglomeration and dispersion spillovers. Finally, we show how our framework admits analytical characterizations of traffic congestion, which creates a critical – albeit tractable – feedback loop between trade costs and the general equilibrium economic system. We apply these results to calculate the welfare effects of improving each of the thousands of segments of the U.S. national highway network. We find large but heterogeneous welfare effects, with the largest gains concentrated in metropolitan areas and along important trading corridors.
    JEL: H54 R12 R13 R41 R42
    Date: 2019–01
  23. By: Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lundin, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sibbmark, Kristina (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: Children growing up in disadvantaged neighborhoods tend to perform significantly worse in school compared to children growing up under more favorable circumstances. We examine the impact of a three-year program (“Coaching for Teaching”) targeted at ten poorly performing lower secondary schools in Sweden’s most disadvantaged city districts. The aim of the intervention was to strengthen the teachers’ professional development, e.g. through coaching and further training, and thereby enhance student performance. We use a difference-in-differences design and rich register data to estimate effects on several educational outcomes. Our results show a large and statistically significant positive impact on student performance on standardized tests in English language. Estimates for test results in math are also positive and large, but not statistically significant; the same applies to GPA and admission to upper secondary school. For test scores in Swedish language there is no indication of improvement. An analysis of a survey of pupils supports the idea that the teaching as well as the classroom climate improved due to the intervention. Taken together, the program seems to have generated rather promising results in the short run.
    Keywords: Education; disadvantaged schools; lower secondary school; social background; teachers; professional development; student performance; government policy
    JEL: I20 I21 I24 I28 J24
    Date: 2018–12–14
  24. By: Anand, Paul (The Open University); Behrman, Jere R. (University of Pennsylvania); Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Jones, Sam (UNU-WIDER)
    Abstract: Inequalities in the opportunity to obtain a good education in low-income countries are widely understood to be related to household resources and schooling quality. Yet, to date, most researchers have investigated the contributions of these two factors separately. This paper considers them jointly, paying special attention to their covariation, which indicates whether schools exacerbate or compensate for existing household-based inequalities. The paper develops a new variance decomposition framework and applies it to data on more than one million children in three low-income East African countries. The empirical results show that although household factors account for a significant share of total test score variation, variation in school quality and positive sorting between households and schools are, together, no less important. The analysis also finds evidence of substantial geographical heterogeneity in schooling quality. The paper concludes that promoting equity in education in East Africa requires policies that go beyond raising average school quality and should attend to the distribution of school quality as well as assortative matching between households and schools.
    Keywords: inequality of opportunity, education achievement, decomposition, household, school, sorting, Africa
    JEL: D6 H0 I2 O1
    Date: 2019–01
  25. By: Viola von Berlepsch; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
    Abstract: This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the 20th century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.
    Keywords: Internal migration, distance, long-term, economic development, counties, US
    JEL: J61 N11 O15 R23
    Date: 2019–01
  26. By: Bracke, Philippe; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: Using data on the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales over a twenty-year period, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing markets. Sale prices and selling propensities are affected by house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. We investigate the causes of history dependence complementing our analysis with administrative data on mortgages and online house listings, which we match to actual sales. We find that cognitive and financial frictions explain the history dependence in the data. Both contributed to the collapse and slow recovery of the volume of housing transactions in the post-crisis period.
    Keywords: housing market; fluctuations; down-payment effects; reference dependence; anchoring; loss aversion
    JEL: E30 R21 R31
    Date: 2018–08
  27. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac currently help finance the majority of home loans in the United States by purchasing and securitizing new mortgages. Alternative proposals for the secondary mortgage market involve different choices about whether the federal government should continue to guarantee payment on certain types of mortgage-backed securities—and if so, what the scope, structure, and pricing of those guarantees should be. Policymakers also face choices about how the secondary market should be structured.
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2018–08–23
  28. By: Madaleno, Margarida; Nathan, Max; Overman, Henry; Waights, Sevrin
    Abstract: A growing wave of co-location programmes promises to boost growth for young firms. Despite great public and policy interest we have little idea whether such programmes are effective. This paper categorises accelerators and incubators within a larger family of ‘co-location' interventions. We then develop a single framework to theorise workspace-level impacts. We summarise available evaluation evidence and sketch implications for regional economic policy. We find clear evidence programmes are effective overall. But we know little about how effects operate – or who benefits. Providers and policymakers should experiment further to establish optimal designs.
    Keywords: incubators; accelerators; entrepreneurship; clusters; cities; economic development
    JEL: L2 O32 R30 R58
    Date: 2018–09
  29. By: Winfried Koeniger; Marc-Antoine Ramelet
    Abstract: We present empirical evidence on the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission across countries with different home ownership rates. We use household-level data together with shocks to the policy rate identified from high-frequency data. We find that housing tenure reacts more strongly to unexpected changes in the policy rate in Germany and Switzerland –the OECD countries with the lowest home ownership rates–compared with existing evidence for the U.S. An unexpected decrease in the policy rate by 25 basis points increases the home ownership rate by 0.8 percentage points in Germany and by 0.6 percentage points in Switzerland. The response of non-housing consumption in Switzerland is less heterogeneous across renters and mortgagors, and has a different pattern across age groups than in the U.S. We discuss economic explanations for these findings and implications for monetary policy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, Home ownership, Housing tenure, Consumption
    JEL: E21 E52 R21
    Date: 2018
  30. By: Carlos González; Carlos Marmolejo
    Abstract: The dynamic evolution of the real estate market, as well as the sophistications of the interactions of the actors involved in it have caused that, contrary to classical economic theory, the real estate market is increasingly being thought of as a set of submarkets. This is because, among other things, the modeling of a segmented housing market allows, on the one hand, to design housing policies that are better adapted to the needs of the population, but on the other hand, it allows the generation of both marketing and supply strategies Oriented to specific population sectors. Such strategies in theory should behave as options with relatively low uncertainty, thus representing an attractive offer to all market players. However, in praxis, the segmentation of the real estate market is usually modeled on the offer. It is therefore that this paper proposes a modeling from observed preferences3 seen through intraurban migrations. In particular, it is proposed to model the market through the interaction value of Coombes, scaling the results in order to visualize the resulting submarket structure from the construction of a PAM (Partitioning Algorithm Medoids).
    Keywords: Barcelona; dimensional scaling; interaction value; PAM; Submarket
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–09–01
  31. By: Paola Azar (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Federico González; Leonel Muinelo-Gallo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: While Uruguayan public education spending is limited so that increasing funding could still improve schooling outcomes, a better use of the current resources could also make a difference. This paper analyses the efficiency performance of a set of public and private schools and explores its main drivers based on PISA-2015 data. Efficiency is estimated by using PISA marks adjusted by the student socioeconomic condition as outputs in a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and it is regressed on a set of explanatory variables by applying bootstrapped truncated regressions. Results show high inefficiencies for the average Uruguayan school with a considerable dispersion in the efficiency attainments. Efficiency gains are associated to school size, location, private management and the presence of non-teaching staff.
    Keywords: PISA, efficiency, DEA, private ownership
    JEL: C14 H52 I21
    Date: 2018–12
  32. By: Koster, Hans R. A.; Pinchbeck, Edward W.
    Abstract: Despite the near ubiquity of inter-temporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from extensive data on housing transactions and spatio-temporal variation in property taxes in England. Our findings imply long-term average discount rates that are between 3 and 4%. The close correspondence to prevailing market interest rates gives little reason to suggest that households misoptimise by materially undervaluing very long term financial flows in this high stakes context.
    Keywords: housing; property taxes; discount rate; capitalisation rate; undervaluation
    JEL: G10 R30
    Date: 2018–09
  33. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: State and local governments own much of the nation’s transportation and water infrastructure, such as highways, mass transit systems, airports, and water treatment systems. The federal government helps states and localities finance investments in such infrastructure through tax-exempt bonds, tax credit bonds, state revolving funds and infrastructure banks, and direct federal credit programs.
    JEL: H54 H74 H81 H77 R51
    Date: 2018–10–17
  34. By: Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Dresselhaus, Carolin
    Abstract: The tax burden of real estate transactions in Germany increased considerably since the constitutional reform in 2006. We examine the impact of the real estate transfer tax (RETT) on transactions and (net-of-tax) prices of commercial buildings and vacant commercial lots by means of a fixed-effects panel regression. The empirical analysis shows an association of a rise of the RETT by 1% with a decrease of office transactions by up to 0.41% and reduced prices by up to 0.22%. On the market for other commercial properties, transactions and prices decline by 0.17% and 0.19% respectively following a RETT increase. The negative price effects on the commercial real estate market tentatively indicate tax incidence with the seller. In the case of vacant commercial lots, a RETT increase seems to induce an increase of average prices by 0.36%, denoting tax incidence with the buyer. We find no significant effect on transactions of vacant lots in the data. In addition, we analyze possible neighborhood effects among the states. The empirical evidence for these effects implies that with an average of a 1% RETT increase in the bordering states of one state, the prices for other commercial properties and for vacant lots rise by 0.51% and 0.71% respectively. Hence, the border effect seems to surpass the direct price effect and suggests spatial structural changes in the investment behavior.
    Keywords: real estate transfer tax,commercial real estate market,share deal,panel regression
    JEL: H20 H22 H77 R33
    Date: 2018
  35. By: Bentsen, Kristian Hedeager (University of Copenhagen); Munch, Jakob R. (University of Copenhagen); Schaur, Georg (University of Tennessee)
    Abstract: Education policies depend in part on the presence of externalities, but very little evidence exists to confirm the existence of such externalities. In this paper we investigate if there are spillover effects from education within peer groups at the workplace. We estimate the effect of increasing the share of higher educated workers in close peer groups on wages, using a rich data source linking workers to workplaces and specific occupations. Our empirical approach accounts for the endogenous sorting of workers into peer groups and workplaces, and, at the same time avoids the reflection problem. In our main specification we find statistically significant but economically small peer effects across all occupations. The magnitude of the effect differs across length and type of education, as well as across occupations and peer group- and workplace size.
    Keywords: education externality, peer effects, match worker-firm data
    JEL: E20 J24
    Date: 2018–12
  36. By: Winters, John V. (Iowa State University)
    Abstract: State and local policymakers are very interested in how attending college in one's home state affects the likelihood of living in that state after college. This paper uses cohort-level data from the American Community Survey, decennial censuses, and other sources to examine how birth-state college enrollment affects birth-state residence several years later. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimates both suggest a statistically significant positive relationship. The preferred instrumental variable estimates suggest that a one percentage point increase in birth-state enrollment rates increases later life birth-state residence by roughly 0.41 percentage points. Implications for policy are discussed.
    Keywords: higher education policy, in-state college enrollment, migration, college attendance
    JEL: H75 I25 J24 R23
    Date: 2018–12
  37. By: Rostislav Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina Sukhova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This research analyzes the differences between municipal elections in large and medium-sized Russian cities (more than 100,000 citizens) and federal elections to representative bodies for the period from 2003 to 2018. The empirical evidence includes 210 municipal electoral campaigns in 119 cities and 4 federal legislative campaigns for comparison. We examine these differences using the notion of the party system nationalization, which is measured by comparing turnout and voting for political parties at different territorial levels in the same cities, and by party system inflation (with the use of the effective number of parties – an index that allows a comparison of election competitiveness at different administrative levels). Most of the cases are midterm municipal elections held separately between the federal campaigns. However, we draw special attention to the differences when federal and municipal campaigns overlap. The results showed some progress in the process of the nationalization of the Russian party system which is indicated by the rapprochement of the degree of competitiveness in the federal and municipal elections and, later, by the likeliness of electoral preferences at different territorial levels.
    Keywords: federal elections, municipal campaigns, electoral support, turnout, competitiveness, the effective number of parties, party system nationalization, party system inflation.
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2018
  38. By: Roberto Bonfatti (University of Padova; University of Nottingham); Yuan Gu (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Steven (S.) Poelhekke (University of Auckland; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Africa's interior-to-coast roads are well suited to export natural resources, but not to support regional trade. Are they the optimal response to geography and comparative advantage, or the result of suboptimal political distortions? We investigate the political determinants of road paving in West Africa across the 1965-2012 period. Controlling for geography and the endogeneity of democratization, we show that autocracies tend to connect natural resource deposits to ports, while the networks expanded in a less interior-to-coast way in periods of democracy. This result suggests that Africa's interior-to-coast roads are at least in part the result of suboptimal political distortions.Africa's interior-to-coast roads are well suited to export natural resources, but not to support regional trade. Are they the optimal response to geography and comparative advantage, or the result of suboptimal political distortions? We investigate the political determinants of road paving in West Africa across the 1965-2012 period. Controlling for geography and the endogeneity of democratization, we show that autocracies tend to connect natural resource deposits to ports, while the networks expanded in a less interior-to-coast way in periods of democracy. This result suggests that Africa's interior-to-coast roads are at least in part the result of suboptimal political distortions.
    Keywords: political economy; democracy; infrastructure; natural resources; development
    JEL: P16 P26 D72 H54 O18 Q32
    Date: 2019–01–27
  39. By: Joseph W. Williams
    Abstract: This document is market agnostic, meaning that it is applicable to any emerging market and is focused on the investor mindset. Its objective is to provide seekers of capital a window into the mindset of the investor. Often, particularly in markets outside of the US and Europe, real estate asset managers and developers source an interesting investment opportunity and then go out and find capital. This document’s objective is for emerging market based real estate asset managers and investor mindset developers to learn to work in a collaborative way with global investors to source and close investment opportunities. In addition, the document will provide emerging market real estate asset managers and investment minded developers a roadmap of how the global large-scale deep value investor thinks. The hypothesis is that real estate asset managers in markets that are going through transition are better served to think of themselves as product development organizations for a large and specific customer: the opportunistic global investor. This document will cover the five W’s that we learn in the USA in elementary school. Who? What? Where? When? Why? And of course the most important, how? The methodology of this report is not secondary research based on published or already researched. It is based on primary research such as interviews with foreign investors and local developers. The author is an active participant and facilitator of the strategies outlined in this document. The research concludes that, at this time the cycle, there are tremendous opportunities for local real estate emerging market real estate asset managers and investment minded developers who work in a collaborative format with large scale global deep value investors.
    Keywords: Brasil; Brazil; Emerging Market; Imobiliário; Investimento; Investment; Mercado Emergente; Oportunista; Opportunistic; real estate
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–09–01
  40. By: de Santana Ribeiro, Luiz Carlos; Carneiro Rios Lopes, Thiago Henrique; Borges Ferreira Neto, Amir; Rodrigues dos Santos, Fernanda
    Abstract: The Brazilian cultural sector is rarely explored in the literature, especially considering all municipalities at the same time in an economic and spatial perspective. This paper aims to measure the level of specialization, urbanization and diversification externalities on the cultural employment growth rate in Brazilian municipalities between 2006 and 2016. To do so, spatial econometric models are used. The main results indicate there are no spatial associations regarding cultural employment growth in Brazil. The lack of complementarity of this sector, associate with the lack of incentives for its development, particularly in small municipalities, helps to explain our results.
    Keywords: cultural activities; Brazilian municipalities; spatial econometrics; specialization externalities
    JEL: R12 Z10
    Date: 2019–01–15
  41. By: Fabian Kosse; Thomas Deckers; Pia Pinger; Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch; Armin Falk
    Abstract: This study presents descriptive and causal evidence on the role of social environment for the formation of prosociality. In a first step, we show that socioeconomic status (SES) as well as the intensity of mother-child interaction and mothers' prosocial attitudes are systematically related to elementary school children's prosociality. In a second step, we present evidence on a randomlyassigned variation of the social environment, providing children with a mentor for the duration of one year. Our data include a two-year follow-up and reveal a significant and persistent increase in prosociality in the treatment relative to the control group. Moreover, enriching the social environment bears the potential to close the observed gap in prosociality between low and high SES children. A mediation analysis of the observed treatment effect suggests that prosociality develops in response to stimuli in the form of prosocial role models and intense social interactions.
    Keywords: Formation of preferences, prosociality, social preferences, trust, social inequality
    JEL: D64 C90
    Date: 2018–05
  42. By: Alexander M. Danzer; Carsten Feuerbaum; Marc Piopiunik; Ludger Woessmann
    Abstract: Does a high regional concentration of immigrants of the same ethnicity affect immigrant children’s acquisition of host-country language skills and educational attainment? We exploit the exogenous placement of guest workers from five ethnicities across German regions during the 1960s and 1970s in a model with region and ethnicity fixed effects. Our results indicate that exposure to a higher own-ethnic concentration impairs immigrant children’s host-country language proficiency and increases school dropout. A key mediating factor for this effect is parents’ lower speaking proficiency in the host-country language, whereas inter-ethnic contacts with natives and economic conditions do not play a role.
    Keywords: immigrant children, ethnic concentration, language, education, guest workers
    JEL: J15 I20 R23 J61
    Date: 2018
  43. By: Graziella Bertocchi (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia,CEPR,CHILD,Dondena,GLO and IZA); Marianna Brunetti (DEF & CEIS,University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Anzelika Zaiceva (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia,IZA and POP,UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Using rich Italian data for the period 2006-2014, we document sizeable gaps between native and immigrant households with respect to wealth holdings and financial decisions. Immigrant household heads hold less net wealth than native, but only above the median of the wealth distribution, with housing as the main driver. Immigrant status reduces the likelihood of holding risky assets, housing, mortgages, businesses, and valuables, while it increases the likelihood of financial fragility. Years since migration, countries of origin, and the pattern of intermarriage also matter. The Great Recession has worsened the condition of immigrants in terms of wealth holdings, home ownership, and financial fragility.
    Keywords: immigrants, household finance, wealth, financial portfolios, Great Recession
    JEL: F22 G11 D14 E21 J15
    Date: 2019–01–25
  44. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Heblich, Stephan; Pinchbeck, Ted
    Abstract: Transport investment is a popular policy instrument and many recent studies have investigated whether new infrastructure generates economic benefits and has spatial economic impacts. Our work approaches the question differently and looks at what happens when a substantial part of a national railway network is dismantled, as happened during the 1950s, 60s and 70s in Britain. Part of this disinvestment occurred following controversial reports on railway profitability and structure in the early 1960s – a course of action known colloquially as ‘the Beeching Axe’ after the author of the reports. The removal of railways is often blamed for the decline of rural areas and peripheral towns in post-war Britain. This rail disinvestment program was targeted at removal of underused and unprofitable lines and not specifically targeted at local economic performance. Even so, we find that there is a relationship between pre-war population decline and the depth of the rail cuts in the post 1950 period. Conditional on these pre-trends, we show that loss of access by rail did cause relative population decline, decline in the proportion of skilled workers, and decline in the proportion of young people in affected areas. The elasticity of population with respect to changes in centrality (or market access) is around 0.3 in our main estimates. Instrumental variables estimates based on the network structure of the cuts yield higher elasticities. An implication of these findings is that rail transport infrastructure plays an important role in shaping the spatial structure of the economy.
    Keywords: rail; infrastructure; Beeching
    JEL: H54 R1 R4
    Date: 2018–08
  45. By: Berlingieri, Giuseppe; Calligaris, Sara; Criscuolo, Chiara
    Abstract: Ever since Moore (1911) a large empirical and theoretical literature has established the existence of a firm size-wage premium. At the same time, a second regularity in empirical work, linking size and productivity, has inspired a vast literature in multiple fields. However, the majority of the existing evidence is based on manufacturing data only. With manufacturing nowadays accounting for a very small share of the economy in many countries, whether productivity, size, and wages are closely linked, and how tight this link is across sectors, is still an open question. Using a unique dataset that collects micro-aggregated firm-level information on productivity, size, and wages for the entire economy in 17 countries over the 1994-2012 period, this paper unveils a much more subtle picture. First, while in the manufacturing sector both productivity and wages increase monotonically with firm size, the same is not true in the service sector. Second, a tight and positive link between wages and productivity is instead found in both manufacturing and services. The combination of these results suggests that, when looking at data for a much larger share of the economy, the "size-wage premium" becomes more a "productivity-wage premium". Unbundling the relationship between size, wages, and productivity has first-order policy implications for both workers and firms.
    Keywords: productivity; size-premium; wages
    JEL: D2 E2 J3
    Date: 2018–07
  46. By: Pieroni, Luca; d'Agostino, Giorgio; Lanari, Donatella
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine how the Italian language problems of immigrants affect their labour market performance using two hitherto unexploited immigration surveys recently published by the Italian Institute of Statistics. With respect to immigrants with good Italian proficiency, our empirical findings suggest that language problems reduce the employment rate by about 30%, and point estimates are even larger when evaluating job discrimination. Italian language skills also significantly affect the wages of immigrants. The point estimates suggest a wage gap of about 20% between immigrants with Italian proficiency and those without Italian proficiency, a magnitude that increases to 25% for male immigrants. Robustness checks confirmed our estimates.
    Keywords: Immigrants, Language skills, Employment, Wages
    JEL: J15 J20 J31
    Date: 2019–01–25
  47. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—originally chartered as government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) but now in federal conservatorship—help finance most home loans in the United States by purchasing and securitizing new mortgages. The budgetary treatment of the GSEs involves two different approaches: fair-value estimating of the costs of their mortgage guarantees (used by CBO) and cash-based estimating of their transactions with the Treasury (used by the Administration).
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2018–09–18
  48. By: Graham, Daniel J.; Gibbons, Stephen
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomeration, explains the link between transport and agglomeration, and describes a three step procedure to appraise agglomeration impacts for transport schemes within Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future empirical work on agglomeration and transport appraisal.
    Keywords: agglomeration; transport; cost benefit analysis
    JEL: R1 R4
    Date: 2018–07
  49. By: Steven Kivinen (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University)
    Abstract: I incorporate social networks into a search and matching model, allowing for congestion effects. The model predicts that the presence of network externalities increases the volatility of unemployment and other variables. I demonstrate analytically that aggregate matching functions exhibit decreasing returns to scale under certain conditions, that unemployment and matching rates have a larger response to productivity shocks, and that labour market tightness adjusts more slowly to its steady-state. Numerical simulations demonstrate that network effects can generate increases in the volatility of unemployment and matching rates, as well as increases in the autocorrelation of vacancies.
    Keywords: Social Networks; Unemployment; Search and Matching
    Date: 2017–03–15
  50. By: Slotwinski, Michaela; Stutzer, Alois
    Abstract: In a national ballot in 2009, Swiss citizens surprisingly approved an amendment to the Swiss constitution to ban the further construction of minarets. The ballot outcome manifested reservations and anti-immigrant attitudes in regions of Switzerland which had previously been hidden. We exploit this fact as a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of negative attitudes towards immigrants on foreigners’ location choices and thus indirectly on their utility. Based on a regression discontinuity design with unknown discontinuity points and administrative data on the population of foreigners, we find that the probability of their moving to a municipality which unexpectedly expressed stronger reservations decreases initially by about 40 percent. The effect is accompanied by a drop of housing prices in these municipalities and levels off over a period of about 5 months. Moreover, foreigners in high-skill occupations react relatively more strongly highlighting a tension when countries try to attract well-educated professionals from abroad.
    Keywords: attitudes,foreigners,location choice,popular initiative,regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D83 J61 R23 Z13
    Date: 2019
  51. By: Aqsha, Nur Suhairah; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: Residential property is seen as a good investment asset which can protect the real wealth of investors against increase in prices of goods and services. Despite rising house prices, consumer home buying power is still going strong in Malaysia. Nevertheless, many believe that over longer time horizon, house prices could decline jeopardizing the real returns on investment especially during inflationary pressure. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the inflation-hedging abilities of Malaysian housing properties both in the long run and short run. We extend current literature using relatively advanced technique of NARDL (Shin et al, 2014) in order to examine the intrinsic asymmetric relationship among the variables. Different hedging tools are included for comparison purpose namely, gold price and stock price. Overall, we find that house price responds to inflation rate asymmetrically in the long run. Gold has asymmetric linkage with inflation but the NARDL estimation result is insignificant, whereas stock price is proven to be a much better option as it reacts symmetrically over both short- and longer-time horizon. However, house ownership can still hedge against inflation in the long-run since the home prices have risen faster than inflation rate during the recent housing bubbles. The findings tend to suggest that ignoring potential nonlinearity may lead to misleading evidence as house prices can be influenced by different macroeconomic determinants. Therefore, it could be of major importance for more effective property investment and policymaking in the context of the Malaysian house market.
    Keywords: Residential Property, House Price, Inflation, Hedging, Nonlinear ARDL, Malaysia
    JEL: C58 E44
    Date: 2018–12–30
  52. By: Demidova, Olga (NRU HSE, Moscow); Kolyagina, Alena (NRU HSE, Moscow); Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to the study of diversification and specialization influence on one of the main indicators of Russian labour market, the unemployment growth. The purpose of the work is to find out which effects dominate in the Russian regions, Marshallian or Jacobs, and whether this predominance is stable for different time intervals. The following hypotheses were empirically tested: 1) the dependence of the unemployment rate on the degree of concentration or diversification is non-monotonic due to possible overlapping effects of urbanization and localization; 2) the influence of the degree of concentration or diversification on the level of unemployment depends on the time period. To test these hypotheses nonparametric additive models with spatial effects were used. Both hypotheses found empirical confirmation. It was shown that in Russia, depending on the period, various effects dominated: in 2008-2010, and 2013-2016 Marshallian effects predominated, while in 2010-2013, Jacobs effects dominated.
    Keywords: concentration, diversification, unemployment, spatial effects, nonparametric models
    JEL: J64 L16 L25 L52 R23
    Date: 2018–12
  53. By: D. Hartmann; A. Arata; M. Bezerra; F.L. Pinheiro
    Abstract: The impact of Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) on the local development of rural areas has rarely been explored empirically. Here we employ methods from network science to evaluate the impact of an NGO?s activities on the social capital and innovation of three Peruvian farming communities between 2003 and 2018. Data was collected from in-depth interviews with farmers, including information about the farmers? socioeconomic characteristics, types of interactions with the NGO, and innovations in processes, products, marketing, and organization. Our findings show that the NGO had a significant impact on the local social cohesion and innovation performance of the farmers. The NGO helped to connect farmers from different villages, provided access to external knowledge, and facilitated the establishment of a local productive organization. Yet, the NGO also changed the local power structure by becoming the most central agent in the local innovation system. The NGO?s centrality declined, though, at later stages of the development project as local agents took over the role of the NGO. Moreover, econometric results show that having a link with the NGO is associated with a significantly more central role of the farmers in the local network. However, only close cooperation with the NGO, such as membership in the local productive organization or active participation in technical training workshops was associated with a significantly higher innovation performance. Finally, our study demonstrates that methods from network science can help to empirically evaluate and monitor the effects of NGOs on local development at different stages of their development interventions.
    Keywords: NGO, smallholders, innovation, social capital, network analysis, local development
    JEL: D8 L3 O31 Q1 R11
    Date: 2019–01
  54. By: Alan J. Auerbach; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Daniel Murphy
    Abstract: We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects (e.g., income multipliers) contribute to the positive spillovers. Geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Our evidence points to the relevance of Keynesian-type models that feature excess capacity.
    JEL: E62 H5
    Date: 2019–01
  55. By: Luciana Méndez-Errico (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This paper examines to what extent recently arrived immigrants in Uruguay experience occupation?over-education in the host labor market, and whether those over-educated workers are penalized in the destination country. Results of this study show that the more immigrants are educated, the more chances they have for being over-educated. Also, immigrants embedded in larger immigrants' social networks are less prone to be over-educated. Findings also stress that for women, over-education is reduced the longer the length of residence in Uruguay and the more years of continuous employment experience they have. Finally, it is found that over-educated immigrants are penalized in the labor market; while only for women, the more they live and continuously work in Uruguay, the larger their labor earnings.
    Keywords: Immigration, over-education, wage penalty
    JEL: J15 J24 J30 J62
    Date: 2018–12
  56. By: Bell, Brian; Blundell, Jack; Machin, Stephen
    Abstract: Does the importance of your family background on how far you get in adulthood also depend on where you grow up? For many countries, Britain included, a paucity of data has made this a question with very little reliable evidence to answer. To redress this evidence lacuna, we present a new analysis of intergenerational mobility across three cohorts in England and Wales using linked decennial census microdata. As well as testing the robustness of existing survey evidence on mobility trends over time, this large dataset permits analysis to be undertaken at a more geographically disaggregated level than was previously feasible. Evidence is presented on occupational wages, home ownership and education. Our new analysis shows a slight decline in occupation-wage mobility and a substantial decline in home ownership mobility over the late 20th century in England and Wales, while the picture for educational mobility is less clear. Focusing on the most recent cohort, we find marked geographic differences in mobility. We find that occupation-wage mobility is exceptionally high in London, while ex-industrial and mining areas experience the lowest rates of mobility. Areas with low occupation-wage mobility were more likely to vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum. Home ownership mobility is negatively correlated with house prices and not correlated with occupation-wage mobility, suggesting that geographical comparisons based on one dimension of mobility need not always align with those based on alternative measures.
    JEL: I2 J62 R23 R31
    Date: 2018–12
  57. By: Elena Cottini (Universita' Cattolica di Milano); Paolo Ghinetti (Universita' del Piemonte Orientale); Simone Moriconi (IÉSEG School of Management and LEM-CNRS (UMR 9221));
    Abstract: This paper estimates neighbourhood effects in the local provision of higher education, and incorporates them in a welfare analysis of higher education supply. We use an own built dataset on the history of higher education institutions in Italy during 1861-2010 to implement an instrumental variables approach that exploits initial conditions in the pre-unitarian Italian states, interacted with post-unification comprehensive reforms of the university system. We provide robust evidence of local displacement between higher education supply in neighbouring provinces. These effects are mostly concentrated within the same field of study, the same region, and a spatial reach of 90 Km. We show that accounting for these displacement forces is important to evaluate the local economic returns of higher education supply. On average, higher education returns explain more than 4% of local value added per capita. Returns are very localised, and larger in provinces that host university hubs.
    Keywords: : : neighbourhood effects; higher education supply; historical data; initial conditions; economic welfare.
    JEL: I23 I28 N00 R1
    Date: 2019–01
  58. By: de Blasio, Guido (Bank of Italy); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Poy, Samuele (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Scoppa, Vincenzo (University of Calabria)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of risk attitudes on the decision to become an entrepreneur. In contrast to previous research, we handle endogeneity issues relying on an instrumental variables strategy considering as a source of exogenous variation in risk aversion the early exposure to a massive earthquake. Using several waves of the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we find that individuals experiencing an earthquake become significantly more risk averse. Second-stage estimates show that risk aversion has a significant negative impact on the probability of becoming an entrepreneur.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, risk attitudes, natural disasters, instrumental variables
    JEL: D81 D91 L26 C36
    Date: 2018–12

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