nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒11‒12
fifty-four papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Minority Representation in Local Government By Brian Beach; Daniel B. Jones; Tate Twinam; Randall Walsh
  2. The spatial distribution of US cities By González-Val, Rafael
  3. Spatial Dependence and Social Networks in Regional Labor Migration By Koji Murayama; Jun Nagayasu
  4. Assortative Matching or Exclusionary Hiring? The Impact of Firm Policies on Racial Wage Differences in Brazil By Card, David; Gerard, Francois; Lagos, Lorenzo; Severnini, Edson
  5. Regional alignement and productivity growth By Ludovic Dibiaggio; Benjamin Montmartin; Lionel Nesta
  6. Analysis of Spatial Dependence in Real Estate Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market By Orcun Morali; Neslihan Yilmaz
  7. Bank Balance Sheet Capacity and the Limits of Shadow Banks By Greg Buchak; Gregor Matvos; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru
  8. Quantifying Family, School, and Location Effects in the Presence of Complementarities and Sorting By Mohit Agrawal; Joseph G. Altonji; Richard K. Mansfield
  9. Economic integration and growth at the margin: A space-time incremental impact analysis By Mitze, Timo; Breidenbach, Philipp
  10. Homeownership, Labour Market Transitions and Earnings By Thierry Kamionka; Guy Lacroix
  11. The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility By Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Nathaniel Hendren; Maggie R. Jones; Sonya R. Porter
  12. Ethnicity and risk sharing network formation: Evidence from rural Viet Nam By Hoang; Laure Pasquier-Doumer; Camille Saint-Macary
  13. Time-Use and Academic Peer Effects in College By Nirav Mehta; Ralph Stinebrickner; Todd Stinebrickner
  14. Predicting Aggregate and State-Level US House Price Volatility: The Role of Sentiment By Rangan Gupta; Chi Keung Marco Lau; Wendy Nyakabawo
  15. Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets By Lazarov, Vladimir; Hinterschweiger, Marc
  16. Incubators, Accelerators and Regional Economic Development By Madaleno, Margarida; Nathan, Max; Overman, Henry; Waights, Sevrin
  17. The Painful External Costs of Bargaining - Evidence from a Railway Strike By Timme, Florian
  18. Appointed public officials and local favoritism: Evidence from the German states By Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana
  19. Somatic Distance; Trust and Trade By Jacques Melitz; Farid Toubal
  20. Broadband Internet and Social Capital By Geraci, Andrea; Nardotto, Mattia; Reggiani, Tommaso G.; Sabatini, Fabio
  21. Gentrification and pioneer businesses By Behrens, Kristian; Boualam, Brahim; Martin, Julien; Mayneris, Florian
  22. Social Networks and Tax Avoidance: Evidence from a Well-Defined Norwegian Tax Shelter By Annette Alstadsæter; Wojciech Kopczuk; Kjetil Telle
  23. In the shadow of coal: How large-scale industries contributed to present-day regional differences in personality and well-being By Obschonka, Martin; Stuetzer, Michael; Rentfrow, Peter J.; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh; Satchell, Max; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Potter, Jeff; Gosling, Samuel D.
  24. Ride with Me - Ethnic Discrimination, Social Markets and the Sharing Economy By Tjaden, Jasper; Schwemmer, Carsten; Khadjavi, Menusch
  25. Economic impact of STEM immigrant workers By Christopher F. Baum; Hans Lööf; Andreas Stephan
  26. Experiences of pre-service teachers on Life Sciences topics and learning. What makes learning difficult and effective? By Wendy Setlalentoa
  27. Policy Priorities for Decarbonizing Urban Public Transport By ITF
  28. Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks By Brück, Tilman; Dunker, Kai M.; Ferguson, Neil T.N.; Meysonnat, Aline; Nillesen, Eleonora
  29. Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide By Caucutt, Elizabeth; Guner, Nezih; Rauh, Christopher
  30. Institutional and economic determinants of regional public debt in Spain By Mar Delgado-Téllez; Javier J. Pérez
  31. Labor market conditions and charges of discrimination: Is there a link? By Karl David Boulware; Kenneth N. Kuttner
  32. The Safety of Bike Share Systems By Elliot Fishman; Paul Schepers
  33. RIOTs in Germany – Constructing an interregional input-output table for Germany By Oliver Krebs
  34. Term Limit Extension and Electoral Participation: Evidence from a Diff-in-Discontinuities Design at the Local Level in Italy By De Benedetto, Marco Alberto; De Paola, Maria
  35. Identification and Estimation of Group-Level Partial Effects By Kenichi Nagasawa
  36. Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy By David W. Berger; Konstantin Milbradt; Fabrice Tourre; Joseph Vavra
  37. Diasporas, Diversity, and Economic Activity: Evidence from 18th-century Berlin By Hornung, Erik
  38. THE CHILE EXPERIMENT Comparing Chile’s Free School Choice Model with Quasi-Monopoly Educational Systems in Latin America on Academic Outcomes and School Segregation By Mariano Narodowski
  39. What Can DNA Exonerations Tell Us about Racial Differences in Wrongful Conviction Rates? By Bjerk, David J.; Helland, Eric
  40. Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles By João Granja; Christian Leuz; Raghuram Rajan
  41. Shared Mobility Simulations for Dublin By ITF
  42. Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment By Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon; Løken, Katrine; Mogstad, Magne
  43. What is the cost of grade retention? By Asma Benhenda
  44. The Welfare Gains from Pricing Road congestion Using Automatic Vehicle Identification and On-Vehicle Meters By Marvin Kraus
  45. The Impact of Migration on Productivity and Native-Born Workers' Training By Campo, Francesco; Forte, Giuseppe; Portes, Jonathan
  46. Accounting for Unobservable Heterogeneity in Cross Section Using Spatial First Differences By Hannah Druckenmiller; Solomon Hsiang
  47. Creating a labor-market module for USAGE-TERM: illustrative application, theory and data By P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
  48. Large Banks and Small Firm Lending By Vitaly M. Bord; Victoria Ivashina; Ryan D. Taliaferro
  49. Entrepreneurship and social networks in Spain By Iñiguez, David; Ortega, Raquel; Rivero, Alejandro; Velilla, Jorge
  50. Regional heterogeneity of household lending based on the findings of the household finance survey: regional features and potential risks By Mamedli Mariam; Andrey Sinyakov
  51. Family Return Migration By Nikolka, Till
  52. “The Impact of Immigration on Native Employment: Evidence from Italy” By Stefano Fusaro; Enrique López-Bazo
  53. The impact of anti-congestion policies and the role of labor-supply margins By Hirte, Georg; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan

  1. By: Brian Beach; Daniel B. Jones; Tate Twinam; Randall Walsh
    Abstract: Does minority representation in a legislative body differentially impact outcomes for minorities? To examine this question, we assemble a novel dataset identifying the ethnicity of over 3,500 California city council candidates and study close elections between white and nonwhite candidates. We find that narrowly elected nonwhite candidates generate differential gains in housing prices in majority nonwhite neighborhoods. This result, which is not explained by correlations between candidate race and political affiliation or neighborhood racial composition and income, suggests that increased representation may help reduce racial disparities. Consistent with a causal interpretation, results strengthen with increased city-level segregation and council-member pivotality. Observed changes in business patterns and policing underpin our results.
    JEL: D72 H7 J15 R3
    Date: 2018–10
  2. By: González-Val, Rafael
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider the distribution of bilateral distances between all pairs of cities to estimate K-densities using the methodology by Duranton and Overman (2005), identifying different spatial patterns. By using data from different definitions of US cities in 2010 (places, urban areas, and core-based statistical areas), we analyse the spatial distribution of cities, finding significant patterns of dispersion depending on the city size and city definition. Our results lend support to a hierarchical system of US cities in which the central cities of each subsystem are far away from each other.
    Keywords: space, city size, urban hierarchy, distance-based approach
    JEL: C12 C14 R12
    Date: 2018–09
  3. By: Koji Murayama; Jun Nagayasu
    Abstract: This study empirically analyzes the determinants of regional labor migration in Japan. Using spatial models of origin-destination flows and considering the network effects of labor, we obtain results more consistent with standard migration theory than previous studies. First, unlike prior research, we find that migration decisions are made by economic motivations consistent with economic theories. In particular, the unemployment rate in the destination region and income in the origin are found to be driving forces of labor migration. Second, we report that network effects, which help reduce migration costs, have encouraged the relocation of labor. Third, by using several de nitions of spatial weights, we show that spatial dependence in regional migration is more complex than what previous studies assumed.
    Date: 2018–10
  4. By: Card, David; Gerard, Francois; Lagos, Lorenzo; Severnini, Edson
    Abstract: A growing body of research shows that firms' employment and wage-setting policies contribute to wage inequality and pay disparities between groups. We measure the effects of these policies on racial pay differences in Brazil. We find that nonwhites are less likely to work at establishments that pay more to all race groups, a pattern that explains about 20% of the white-nonwhite wage gap for both genders. The pay premiums offered by different employers are also compressed for nonwhites relative to whites, contributing another 5% of the overall gap. We then ask how much of the under-representation of nonwhites at higher-paying workplaces is due to the selective skill mix at these establishments. Using a counterfactual based on the observed skill distribution at each establishment and the nonwhite shares in different skill groups in the local labor market, we conclude that assortative matching accounts for about two-thirds of the under-representation gap for both men and women. The remainder reflects an unexplained preference for white workers at higher-paying establishments. The wage losses associated with unexplained sorting and differential wage setting are largest for nonwhites with the highest levels of general skills, suggesting that the allocative costs of race-based preferences may be relatively large in Brazil.
    Date: 2018–10
  5. By: Ludovic Dibiaggio (Histoire et Critique des Arts - Centre d'étude et de recherche d'archéologie méditerranéenne et atlantique. UHB); Benjamin Montmartin (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Lionel Nesta (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: We propose the concept of regional alignment to suggest that synergistic relations among the scientific expertise, technological specialization and industry composition of regions affect regional productivity growth. In this paper, we test an extended conditional β-convergence model using data on 94 French departments (NUTS3) for the period 2001-2011. Our results indicate that a conditional β-convergence is associated with a σ-divergence process in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of French regions. This process is strongly affected by the level of regional alignment. Indeed, we find evidence that regional alignment both directly and indirectly influences regional productivity growth. The indirect effect of regional alignment materializes through its leverage on R&D investment, which is one of the most important drivers of productivity growth. Moreover, using a heterogeneous coefficients model, we show that the positive effect of regional alignment on TFP growth increases with the industrial diversity of regions, which suggests that regional alignment increases the value of Jacobs externalities more than Marshall-ArrowRomer (MAR) externalities. KEY
    Keywords: Regional alignement; β-convergence; Productivity growth; Multi-regional model
    JEL: O30 O40 R11
    Date: 2018–09
  6. By: Orcun Morali (Bogazici University); Neslihan Yilmaz (Bogazici University)
    Abstract: Real estate properties are naturally location-fixed, therefore, a spatial dependence is expected. When location-specific factors persist over time, spatial autocorrelation is likely to exist in a hedonic pricing regression. Spatial autocorrelation causes problems in the interpretation of the regression results due to inefficient estimators or complex models. The focus of this study is to identify and test the determinants of spatial dependence in the real estate market. Using a novel data set, our study contributes to the literature as we identify the specific spatial dependence factors through the analysis of different types of housing markets and extend the literature to an emerging market.
    Keywords: Real estate, Spatial Autocorrelation, Emerging Markets
    JEL: G19
    Date: 2018–07
  7. By: Greg Buchak; Gregor Matvos; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru
    Abstract: We study which types of activities migrate to the shadow banking sector, why migration occurs in some sectors, and not others, and the quantitative importance of this migration. We explore this question in the $10 trillion US residential mortgage market, in which shadow banks account for more than half of new lending. Using micro data, we document a large degree of market segmentation in shadow bank penetration. They substitute for traditional—deposit taking—banks in easily securitized lending, but are limited from engaging in activities requiring on-balance sheet financing. Traditional banks adjust their financing and lending activities to balance sheet shocks, and behave more like shadow banks following negative shocks. Motivated by this evidence, we build a structural model. Banks and shadow banks compete for borrowers. Banks face regulatory constraints, but benefit from the ability to engage in balance sheet lending. Like shadow banks, banks can choose to access the securitization market. To evaluate distributional consequences, we model a rich demand system with income and house price differences across borrowers. The model is estimated using spatial pricing rules and bunching at the regulatory threshold for identification. We study the consequences of capital requirements, conforming credit limits, and unconventional monetary policy on lending volume and pricing, bank stability and the distribution of consumer surplus across rich and poor households. Our results suggest that a complete policy analysis of the credit market requires simultaneously analyzing the impact on banks and shadow banks, and accounting for their equilibrium interactions.
    JEL: G2 L5
    Date: 2018–10
  8. By: Mohit Agrawal; Joseph G. Altonji; Richard K. Mansfield
    Abstract: We extend the control function approach of Altonji and Mansfield (2018) to allow for multiple group levels and complementarities. Our analysis provides a foundation for causal interpretation of multilevel mixed effects models in the presence of sorting. In our empirical application, we obtain lower bound estimates of the importance of school and commuting zone inputs for education and wages. A school/location combination at the 90th versus 10th percentile of the school/location quality distribution increases the high school graduation probability and college enrollment probability by at least .06 and .17, respectively. Treatment effects are heterogeneous across subgroups, primarily due to nonlinearity in the educational attainment model.
    JEL: C1 C31 I20 I24 R23
    Date: 2018–10
  9. By: Mitze, Timo; Breidenbach, Philipp
    Abstract: We use the case of EU enlargement in 2004 to investigate the impact of economic integration on regional income growth. Being particularly interested in studying the effects 'at the margin', we track the relative performance of regions adjacent to both sides of the integration border vis-à-vis non-border regions. We use a space-time incremental difference-in-difference (IDiD) analysis to account for spatial spillovers, early anticipation and adjustment dynamics over time. Our findings indicate that EU-15 regions up to a distance of 100 km from the integration border experience positive integration effects, but we do not observe additional income growth effects for NMS-10 border regions compared to non-border regions. The results are found to be robust for alternative regression specifications including doubly robust estimation, varying sample settings and placebo tests. Country-specific estimates for the EU-15 finally indicate that in particular East German regions have benefited from EU enlargement potentially reflecting their proximity to Poland as largest NMS market, their favorable investment conditions, i.e. modern infrastructure, and preferential historical ties to the NMS-10.
    Keywords: economic integration,regional income growth,EU enlargement,spatial spillovers,space-time incremental difference-in-difference estimation
    JEL: C23 F15 O47 R11
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Thierry Kamionka; Guy Lacroix
    Abstract: The paper investigates the links between homeownership, employment and earnings for which no consensus exists in the literature. Our analysis is cast within a dynamic setting and the endogeneity of each outcome is assessed through the estimation of a flexible panel multivariate model with random effects. The data we use are drawn from the French sample of the EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions for the years 2004–2013. The error terms are both correlated across equations and autocorrelated. Individual random effects are also correlated across equations. The model is estimated using a simulated maximum likelihood estimator and particular care is given to the initial conditions problem. Our results show that while homeowners have longer employment and unemployment spells, they must contend with lower earnings than tenants upon reemployment. They also stress the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining the transitions on the labour and housing markets, and the relationship between earnings and the latter two. Failure to properly account for this is likely to yield biased parameter estimates.
    Keywords: Homeownership,Unemployment,Earnings,Heterogeneity,Simulation Based Estimation,Panel Data,
    JEL: J21 J64 J31 C33 C35
    Date: 2018–11–05
  11. By: Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Nathaniel Hendren; Maggie R. Jones; Sonya R. Porter
    Abstract: We construct a publicly available atlas of children's outcomes in adulthood by Census tract using anonymized longitudinal data covering nearly the entire U.S. population. For each tract, we estimate children's earnings distributions, incarceration rates, and other outcomes in adulthood by parental income, race, and gender. These estimates allow us to trace the roots of outcomes such as poverty and incarceration back to the neighborhoods in which children grew up. We find that children's outcomes vary sharply across nearby areas: for children of parents at the 25th percentile of the income distribution, the standard deviation of mean household income at age 35 is $5,000 across tracts within counties. We illustrate how these tract-level data can provide insight into how neighborhoods shape the development of human capital and support local economic policy using two applications. First, the estimates permit precise targeting of policies to improve economic opportunity by uncovering specific neighborhoods where certain subgroups of children grow up to have poor outcomes. Neighborhoods matter at a very granular level: conditional on characteristics such as poverty rates in a child's own Census tract, characteristics of tracts that are one mile away have little predictive power for a child's outcomes. Our historical estimates are informative predictors of outcomes even for children growing up today because neighborhood conditions are relatively stable over time. Second, we show that the observational estimates are highly predictive of neighborhoods' causal effects, based on a comparison to data from the Moving to Opportunity experiment and a quasi-experimental research design analyzing movers' outcomes. We then identify high-opportunity neighborhoods that are affordable to low- income families, providing an input into the design of affordable housing policies. Our measures of children's long-term outcomes are only weakly correlated with traditional proxies for local economic success such as rates of job growth, showing that the conditions that create greater upward mobility are not necessarily the same as those that lead to productive labor markets.
    JEL: H0 J0
    Date: 2018–10
  12. By: Hoang (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France, UMR 225 DIAL, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Paris, France); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); Camille Saint-Macary (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: Ethnic inequality remains a persistent challenge for Viet Nam. This paper aims at better understanding this ethnic gap through exploring the formation of risk sharing networks in rural areas. It first investigates the differences in risk sharing networks between the ethnic minorities and the Kinh majority, in terms of size and similarity attributes of the networks. Second, it relies on the concept of ethnic homophily in link formation to explain the mechanisms leading to those differences. In particular, it disentangles the effect of demographic and local distribution of ethnic groups on risk-sharing network formation from cultural and social distance between ethnic groups, while controlling for the disparities in the geographical environment. Results show that ethnic minorities have smaller and less diversified networks than the majority. This is partly explained by differences in wealth and in the geographical environment. But ethnicity also plays a direct role in risk-sharing network formation through the combination of preferences to form a link with people from the same ethnic group (inbreeding homophily) and the relative size of ethnic groups conditioning the opportunities to form a link (baseline homophily). Inbreeding homophily is found to be stronger among the Kinh majority, leading to the exclusion of ethnic minorities from Kinh networks, which are supposed to be more efficient to cope with covariant risk because they are more diversified in the occupation and location of their members. This evidence suggests that inequalities among ethnic groups in Viet Nam are partly rooted in the cultural and social distances between them.
    Keywords: Risk-sharing network, homophily, ethnic gap, Viet Nam, Vietnam.
    JEL: O12 I31 D85
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Nirav Mehta; Ralph Stinebrickner; Todd Stinebrickner
    Abstract: This paper examines academic peer effects in college. Unique new data from the Berea Panel Study allow us to focus on a mechanism wherein a student's peers affect her achievement by changing her study effort. Although the potential relevance of this mechanism has been recognized, data limitations have made it difficult to provide direct evidence about its importance. We find that a student's freshman grade point average is affected by the amount her peers studied in high school, suggesting the importance of this mechanism. Using time diary information, we confirm that college study time is actually being affected.
    JEL: I0 I21 I23 J22
    Date: 2018–10
  14. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Chi Keung Marco Lau (Huddersfield Business School, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, United Kingdom); Wendy Nyakabawo (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This paper examines the predictive ability of housing-related sentiment on housing market volatility for 50 states, District of Columbia, and the aggregate US economy, based on quarterly data covering 1975:3 and 2014:3. Given that existing studies have already shown housing sentiment to predict movements in aggregate and state-level housing returns, we use a k-th order causality-in-quantiles test for our purpose, since this methodology allows us to test for predictability for both housing returns and volatility simultaneously. In addition, this test being a data-driven approach accommodates the existing nonlinearity (as detected by formal tests) between volatility and sentiment, besides providing causality over the entire conditional distribution of (returns and) volatility. Our results show that barring 5 states (Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska), housing sentiment is observed to predict volatility barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution. As far as returns are concerned, except for California, predictability is observed for all of the remaining 51 cases.
    Keywords: Housing sentiment, housing market returns and volatility, higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, overall and regional US economy
    JEL: C22 C32 C53 R3
    Date: 2018–10
  15. By: Lazarov, Vladimir (Bank of England); Hinterschweiger, Marc (Bank of England)
    Abstract: The mortgage market has played a central role in the global financial crisis. One particularly pressing question surrounds the conditions under which mortgage borrowers enter distress, ie get into arrears or default. This paper develops a novel micro dataset from residential mortgage loans which UK banks and building societies have pre-positioned with the Bank of England for use as collateral in exchange for central bank funding. The dataset is used to investigate the determinants of borrower distress as a function of borrower and loan-level stock/flow characteristics over the loans’ lifetime in the buy-to-let (BTL) and owner-occupier (OO) mortgage markets. We find systematic differences between these two markets, controlling for a range of loan and borrower characteristics as well as macro variables. Our main result shows that, adjusting for affordability, the loan-to-value ratio is reliably more important for borrower distress in the OO market than for distress in the BTL market, contradicting McCann’s (2014) results.
    Keywords: Distress; default; arrears; mortgage lending; loan level; micro data; United Kingdom
    JEL: C23 G21
    Date: 2018–10–19
  16. By: Madaleno, Margarida (London School of Economics); Nathan, Max (University of Birmingham); Overman, Henry (London School of Economics); Waights, Sevrin (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: A growing wave of co-location programmes promises to boost growth for entrepreneurs and young firms. Despite great public and policy interest we have little idea whether such programmes are effective. This paper categorises accelerators and incubators within a larger family of co-location interventions. We then develop a single framework to theorise workspace-level impacts. We summarise available evaluation evidence and sketch implications for regional economic policy. We find clear evidence programmes are effective overall. But we know little about how effects operate – or who benefits. Providers and policymakers should experiment further to establish optimal designs.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, incubators, accelerators, clusters, cities, economic development
    JEL: L26 O32 R30 R58
    Date: 2018–09
  17. By: Timme, Florian
    Abstract: Evidence is presented that the number of traffic deaths and traffic injuries increased significantly due to a railway strike in Germany. While the number of slightly and seriously injured people increased on all road types, the number of fatally injured people increased only on roads out of town. The data suggest that the timing of a strike plays a crucial role in the effect on traffic injuries. Effects are stronger on weekends (Friday to Sunday) than on weekdays.
    JEL: J45 J52 R41
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana
    Abstract: We study the local favoritism of appointed German state ministers. Matching hand-collected data on ministers’ place of residence to a sample of more than 8,000 west German municipalities during the period 1994–2013, we find that the home municipality of a state minister experiences higher employment growth than control municipalities. Given the institutional context, this effect is ostensibly due to apolitical favoritism (home bias) rather than electoral considerations. We conclude that favoritism may lead to a distortion in the allocation of public resources even in contexts with strong political institutions.
    Keywords: Distributive politics,Favoritism,Employment growth
    JEL: D73 H70
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Jacques Melitz (CREST; ENSAE; CEPII); Farid Toubal (CREST; ENS de Paris-Saclay; CEPII)
    Abstract: Somatic distance; or differences in physical appearance; proves to be extremely important in the gravity model of bilateral trade in conformity with results in other areas of economics and outside in the social sciences. This is also true independently of survey evidence about bilateral trust. These findings are obtained in a sample of the 15 members of the European Economic Association in 1996. Robustness tests also show that somatic distance; as well as co-ancestry; has a more reliable influence on bilateral trade than the other cultural variables. The article finally discusses the interpretation and breadth of application of these results.
    Keywords: Somatic distance, Cultural interactions, Co-ancestry, Trust, Language, Bilateral Trade.
    JEL: F10 F40 Z10
    Date: 2018–08–01
  20. By: Geraci, Andrea (University of Oxford); Nardotto, Mattia (KU Leuven); Reggiani, Tommaso G. (Masaryk University); Sabatini, Fabio (Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: We study how the diffusion of broadband Internet affects social capital using two data sets from the UK. Our empirical strategy exploits the fact that broadband access has long depended on customers' position in the voice telecommunication infrastructure that was designed in the 1930s. The actual speed of an Internet connection, in fact, rapidly decays with the distance of the dwelling from the specific node of the network serving its area. Merging unique information about the topology of the voice network with geocoded longitudinal data about individual social capital, we show that access to broadband Internet caused a significant decline in forms of offline interaction and civic engagement. Overall, our results suggest that broadband penetration substantially crowded out several aspects of social capital.
    Keywords: ICT, broadband infrastructure, networks, Internet, social capital, civic capital
    JEL: C91 D9 D91 Z1
    Date: 2018–09
  21. By: Behrens, Kristian; Boualam, Brahim; Martin, Julien; Mayneris, Florian
    Abstract: We build a time-consistent block-level dataset from 1990 to 2010 containing socio-economic characteristics of residents and information on businesses in New York. We identify both gentrifying areas and pioneer sectors characterized by atypical location decisions. The latter-mostly cultural, recreational, and creative industries-help us to better predict and understand gentrification. We find that a block's initial exposure to pioneers has a quantitatively sizable effect in predicting future gentrification. Pioneers foster gentrification through the types of workers they hire, their signal as to the future prospects of a neighborhood, and their effect on the arrival of consumption amenities.
    Keywords: Gentrification; microgeographic data; New York; pioneer businesses
    JEL: R14 R23 R31
    Date: 2018–11
  22. By: Annette Alstadsæter; Wojciech Kopczuk; Kjetil Telle
    Abstract: In 2005, over 8% of Norwegian shareholders transferred their shares to new (legal) tax shelters intended to defer taxation of capital gains and dividends that would otherwise be taxable in the aftermath of 2006 reform. Using detailed administrative data we identify family networks and describe how take up of tax avoidance progresses within a network. A feature of the reform was that the ability to set up a tax shelter changed discontinuously with individual shareholding of a firm and we use this fact to estimate the causal effect of availability of tax avoidance for a taxpayer on tax avoidance by others in the network. We find that take up in a social network increases the likelihood that others will take up. This suggests that taxpayers affect each other's decisions about tax avoidance, highlighting the importance of accounting for social interactions in understanding enforcement and tax avoidance behavior, and providing a concrete example of “optimization frictions” in the context of behavioral responses to taxation.
    JEL: D22 D23 H25 H26 H32
    Date: 2018–10
  23. By: Obschonka, Martin; Stuetzer, Michael; Rentfrow, Peter J.; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh; Satchell, Max; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Potter, Jeff; Gosling, Samuel D.
    Abstract: Recent research has identified regional variation of personality traits within countries but we know little about the underlying drivers of this variation. We propose that the Industrial Revolution, as a key era in the history of industrialized nations, has led to a persistent clustering of well-being outcomes and personality traits associated with psychological adversity via processes of selective migration and socialization. Analyzing data from England and Wales, we examine relationships between the historical employment share in large-scale coal-based industries (coal mining and steam-powered manufacturing industries that used this coal as fuel for their steam engines) and today’s regional variation in personality and well-being. Even after controlling for possible historical confounds (historical energy supply, education, wealth, geology, climate, population density), we find that the historical local dominance of large-scale coal-based industries predicts today’s markers of psychological adversity (lower Conscientiousness [and order facet scores], higher Neuroticism [and anxiety and depression facet scores], lower activity [an Extraversion facet], and lower life satisfaction and life expectancy). An instrumental variable analysis, using the historical location of coalfields, supports the causal assumption behind these effects (with the exception of life satisfaction). Further analyses focusing on mechanisms hint at the roles of selective migration and persisting economic hardship. Finally, a robustness check in the U.S. replicates the effect of the historical concentration of large-scale industries on today’s levels of psychological adversity. Taken together, the results show how today’s regional patterns of personality and well-being may have their roots in major societal changes underway decades or centuries earlier.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution, regional well-being, adversity, Big Five personality traits, historical factors
    JEL: I31 N93
    Date: 2018
  24. By: Tjaden, Jasper; Schwemmer, Carsten; Khadjavi, Menusch
    Abstract: We study ethnic discrimination in the sharing economy using the example of Europe’s largest carpooling marketplace. Based on a unique dataset with more than 17,000 rides, we estimate the effects of drivers’ perceived name origins on the demand for rides. The results show sizable ethnic penalties. Further analyses suggest that additional information about actors in this market decreases the magnitude of ethnic discrimination. Our findings broaden the perspective of ethnic discrimination by shedding light on subtle, everyday forms of discrimination in social markets and informing ongoing discussions about ways to address discrimination in an era in which markets increasingly move online.
    Keywords: Ethnic discrimination,sharing economy,statistical discrimination,online markets,computational social science
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Christopher F. Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin; CESIS, KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Hans Lööf (CESIS, KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Andreas Stephan (Jönköping International Business School; DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: STEM-focused industries are critical to the innovation-driven economy. As many firms are running short of STEM workers, international immigrants are increasingly recognized as a potential for high-tech job recruitment. This paper studies STEM occupations in Sweden 2011–2015 and tests hypotheses on new recruitment and the economic impact of foreign STEM workers. The empirical analysis shows that the probability that a new employee is a STEM immigrant increases with the share of STEM immigrants already employed, while the marginal effect on average firm wages is positively associated with the share of immigrant STEM workers. We also document heterogeneity in the results, suggesting that European migrants are more attractive for new recruitment, but non-EU migrants have the largest impact on wage determination.
    Keywords: STEM; migration; employment; wages; correlated random effects
    JEL: C23 J24 J61 O14 O15
    Date: 2018–10–04
  26. By: Wendy Setlalentoa (Central University of Technology)
    Abstract: Pre-service teachers need to be adequately prepared to teach, they are expected to engage with research into teaching and learning during their training as well as reflect on their practice. They need to see themselves as evidence-based practitioners of a research informed profession. In accordance with topics outlined in the Life Sciences Grade 10-12 Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement (CAPS) document, the study sought to identify areas in Life Sciences where pre-service students encounter learning problems as well as ways to enhance effectiveness of their Life Sciences learning. This study followed an interpretivist approach and social constructivism of knowledge. A convenience sample comprising 58 first year Natural Sciences pre-service teachers (22 males, 36 females) enrolled for the Life Sciences major was used in the study. Qualitative data were collected by means of five focus group discussions with pre-service teachers on their experiences on Life Sciences learning. The following topics were identified as the difficult to learn: Genetics and inheritance and energy transformations to sustain life and cited amongst others that the nature of the topic and teaching strategies employed by their former teachers made it difficult for them to make meaning of the subject matter. Suggestions to overcome these learning difficulties in Life Sciences were made. Teacher preparation needs to focus on highly discipline-specific programs with emphasis on Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) as well so as to effect a deeper and more effective learning process, as well as strengthening the active role of the teacher as a researcher and developer of his/her own practice.
    Keywords: pedagogical content knowledge, effective teaching and learning, CAPS, reflective practice, Life Sciences
    Date: 2018–07
  27. By: ITF
    Abstract: This report identifies policy priorities, megatrends and pressing issues regarding the decarbonisation of urban passenger transport. It presents the results of an expert survey on important challenges in the area and summarises the findings of a workshop with 36 experts from 12 countries regarding strategies for the transition to carbon-neutral urban passenger transport.
    Date: 2018–10–22
  28. By: Brück, Tilman (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Dunker, Kai M. (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Ferguson, Neil T.N. (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Meysonnat, Aline (UNU-MERIT); Nillesen, Eleonora (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Violent conflict is a well-recognised driver of forced migration but literature does not usually consider the pull factors that might also cause irregular movements. In turn, the decision to leave and of where to go are rarely considered separately. This is in contrast to literature on regular international migration, which considers both push and pull factors. We contribute to these literatures by studying bilateral forced migration from multiple countries of origin to 28 European countries in the years either side of two "migration crises" – the wars in the Balkans and the Arab Spring. We pay attention to dynamics by analysing lagged flows and stocks of forced migrants and modelling their spatial distribution. We find that these partial adjustment and network effects are key pull factors, with employment rate in the destination country the only significant economic variable. In addition, we demonstrate that it is episodes of escalating conflict, rather than accumulated violence, that drives decisions to leave. Out-of-sample predictions indicate that if conflict in origin countries were to cease, forced migration would continue, albeit at a significantly reduced rate. Our findings suggest that past patterns of forced migration help shape future flows, that forced migration flows cannot easily be stopped by destination country policies, and that preventing conflict escalation is important for preventing forced migration.
    Keywords: forced migration, refugees, displacement, conflict, Arab Spring, MENA, Balkans, dynamic panel data, gravity model
    JEL: J61 J68 F22 O15 F51
    Date: 2018–09
  29. By: Caucutt, Elizabeth; Guner, Nezih; Rauh, Christopher
    Abstract: The black-white differences in marriages in the US are striking. While 83% of white women between ages 25 and 54 were ever married in 2006, only 56% of black women were: a gap of 27 percentage points. Wilson (1987) suggests that the lack of marriageable black men due to incarceration and unemployment is responsible for low marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. We argue that the current incarceration policies and labor market prospects make black men riskier spouses than white men. They are not only more likely to be, but also to become, unemployed or incarcerated than their white counterparts. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce and labor supply that takes into account the transitions between employment, unemployment and prison for individuals by race, education, and gender. We estimate model parameters to be consistent with key statistics of the US economy. We then investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to differences in the riskiness of potential spouses. We find that differences in incarceration and employment dynamics between black and white men can account for half of the existing black-white marriage gap in the data
    Keywords: incarceration; inequality; Marriage; race; unemployment
    JEL: J12 J21 J64
    Date: 2018–10
  30. By: Mar Delgado-Téllez (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España)
    Abstract: We analyze from an empirical point of view the evolution and determinants of Spanish regional public debt. Spain offers an interesting case study because of its high level of fiscal decentralization, implemented gradually during the past four decades, the parallel entry into force of a number of national fiscal rules in that period, and the heterogeneity of its regions, both in terms of economic fundamentals and some institutional features. Our main findings are the following: i) regional governments’ fiscal policies reacted to public debt increases, on average, over the sample of study; ii) fiscal rules played a limited role in controlling debt surges, being only marginally effective in some instances, like high debt situations; iii) a higher degree of regional fiscal co-responsibility tends to be linked to more subdued debt dynamics; iv) market-disciple indicators have encouraged some discipline at the regional level, and v) regional non-standard (commercial) debt surges present explanatory power on the standard measure of public debt.
    Keywords: regional public debt, fiscal rules, fiscal federalism, market discipline
    JEL: H6 E62 C53
    Date: 2018–07
  31. By: Karl David Boulware (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Kenneth N. Kuttner (Department of Economics, Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper’s goal is to determine whether the degree of labor market tightness affects the frequency of discrimination charges. State-level panel data on enforcement and litigation actions from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, along with disaggregated labor market statistics, allow us to assess the effects of labor market conditions on discrimination based on race or ethnicity, and how these effects vary across states and over time. Our findings have implications for how macroeconomic policies might be used to promote equal opportunity in the labor market.
    Keywords: labor market conditions, discrimination, EEOC, macroeconomic policy
    JEL: J15 J63 J71 E61 Z13
    Date: 2018–10
  32. By: Elliot Fishman (Institute for Sensible Transport); Paul Schepers (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews available research on the safety impacts associated with the growth in bike share use. In the last 20 years the global fleet of dock-based and dockless bike share systems has grown to well over 4 500 000; making bike share one of the fastest growing modes of transport. This rapid increase in popularity has made bike safety a priority for policy makers and calls for a framework where bike share crash data is collected consistently to ensure safety risks can be identified and reduced, in order to encourage more sustainable urban mobility.
    Date: 2018–07–03
  33. By: Oliver Krebs
    Abstract: Despite their importance, little is known about the spatial structure of trade and production networks within Germany and their connection to the international markets. The lack of data is problematic for regional analysis of aggregate shocks such as trade agreements and to analyze network effects of regional policies. This paper takes an in-depth look at this German production structure and trade network at the county level based on a unique data set of county level trade. I find a surprisingly vast heterogeneity with respect to specialization, agglomeration and trade partners. The paper subsequently shows how to adapt recent advances in regionalization of input-output tables to derive an interregional input output table for 402 German counties and 26 foreign partners for 17 sectors that is cell-by-cell compatible with the WIOD tables for national aggregates and can be used for impact analysis and CGE model calibration.
    Keywords: Germany, regional trade, input-output tables, proportionality
    JEL: R15 R12 F17
    Date: 2018–11
  34. By: De Benedetto, Marco Alberto (Birkbeck, University of London); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria)
    Abstract: We study the effect of term limits on voter turnout in local Italian elections. Since 2014 the Italian law allows mayors in municipalities with a population size lower than 3,000 inhabitants to re-run for a third term, whereas mayors in cities with a number of residents above the cutoff still face a two-term limit. The introduction of the reform permits us to implement a difference-in-discontinuities design exploiting the before/after with the discontinuous policy change. We find that voters negatively react to the introduction of the reform and in particular electoral participation decreases by about 5 percentage points in municipalities eligible to the treatment compared to municipalities in the control group. This negative effect is essentially driven by a decrease in the political competition. We also find that relaxing term limits does not improve the quality of politicians running for election.
    Keywords: diff-in-discontinuities, voter turnout, political competition
    JEL: C21 D72 H70 J78
    Date: 2018–09
  35. By: Kenichi Nagasawa
    Abstract: This paper presents a new identification result for causal effects of group-level variables when agents select into groups. The model allows for group selection to be based on individual unobserved heterogeneity. This feature leads to correlation between group-level covariates and unobserved individual heterogeneity. Whereas many of the existing identification strategies rely on instrumental variables for group selection, I introduce alternative identifying conditions which involve individual-level covariates that "shift" the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. I use these conditions to construct a valid control function. The key identifying requirements on the observable "shifter" variables are likely to hold in settings where a rich array of individual characteristics are observed. The identification strategy is constructive and leads to a semiparametric, regression-based estimator of group-level causal effects, which I show to be consistent and asymptotically normal. A simulation study indicates good finite-sample properties of this estimator. I use my results to re-analyze the effects of school/neighborhood characteristics on student outcomes, following the work of Altonji and Mansfield (2018).
    Date: 2018–11
  36. By: David W. Berger; Konstantin Milbradt; Fabrice Tourre; Joseph Vavra
    Abstract: How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial household debt in fixed-rate prepayable mortgages means that this question cannot be answered by looking only at how far current rates are from zero. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment with endogenous mortgage pricing, wealth distributions and consumption matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting rates depends not just on the level of current interest rates but also on their previous path: 1) Holding current rates constant, monetary policy is less effective if previous rates were low. 2) Monetary policy "reloads" stimulative power slowly after raising rates. 3) The strength of monetary policy via the mortgage prepayment channel has been amplified by the 30-year secular decline in mortgage rates. All three conclusions imply that even if the Fed raises rates substantially before the next recession arrives, it will likely have less ammunition available for stimulus than in recent recessions.
    JEL: E0 E2 E4 E43 E5 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–10
  37. By: Hornung, Erik (University of Cologne, Center for Macroeconomic Research)
    Abstract: Diversity may either increase economic activity by utilizing complementarities in production or lead to costly conflict over resources. Using citydistrict panel data from 18th-century Berlin, a major center of refuge for persecuted minorities in early modern Europe, we analyze the relationship between changes in diversity and economic activity. Prussian rulers specifically invited groups of skilled immigrants, such as Jews, Huguenots, and Bohemians, to settle in Berlin’s newly-developed city quarters. We find that the resulting ethnic diversity fosters textile production in a much broader range of products than individual ethnicities, arguably reflecting complementarities between groups.Keywords: Ethnic Diversity, Minorities, Huguenots, Jews, Productivity JEL Classification: N33, J61, Z12, O33
    Date: 2018
  38. By: Mariano Narodowski
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to show the achievements and challenges of Chile's system of free school choice compared to countries with similar socioeconomic structures and common educational histories, but with traditional education systems: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.
    Date: 2018–10
  39. By: Bjerk, David J. (Claremont McKenna College); Helland, Eric (Claremont McKenna College)
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which DNA exonerations can reveal whether wrongful conviction rates differ across races. We show that under a wide-range of assumptions regarding possible explicit or implicit racial biases in the DNA exoneration process (including no bias), our results suggest the wrongful conviction rate for rape is substantially and significantly higher among black convicts than white convicts. By contrast, we show that only if one believes that the DNA exoneration process very strongly favors innocent members of one race over the other could one conclude that there exist significant racial differences in wrongful conviction rates for murder.
    Keywords: DNA evidence, wrongful convictions, justice, discrimination
    JEL: K4
    Date: 2018–09
  40. By: João Granja; Christian Leuz; Raghuram Rajan
    Abstract: We examine the degree to which competition amongst lenders interacts with the cyclicality in lending standards using a simple measure, the average physical distance of borrowers from banks’ branches. We propose that this novel measure captures the extent to which lenders are willing to stretch their lending portfolio. Consistent with this idea, we find a significant cyclical component in the evolution of lending distances. Distances widen considerably when credit conditions are lax and shorten considerably when credit conditions become tighter. Next, we show that a sharp departure from the trend in distance between banks and borrowers is indicative of increased risk taking. Finally, we provide evidence that as competition in banks’ local markets increases, their willingness to make loans at greater distance increases. Since average lending distance is easily measurable, it is potentially a useful measure for bank supervisors.
    JEL: E32 E44 G01 G18 G21 G32 L14
    Date: 2018–10
  41. By: ITF
    Abstract: This report examines how new shared mobility services could change mobility in Ireland’s Greater Dublin Area. Simulations of eleven different shared transport scenarios show how such services could affect congestion, CO2 emissions and the use of public space. They also examine how such solutions might impact service quality, the cost of mobility, citizens’ access to opportunities and their use of public transport. The findings provide decision makers with evidence to properly weigh opportunities and challenges created by new forms of shared transport. The work is part of a series of studies on shared mobility in different urban and metropolitan contexts.
    Date: 2018–10–05
  42. By: Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon; Løken, Katrine; Mogstad, Magne
    Abstract: Understanding whether, and in what situations, time spent in prison is criminogenic or preventive has proven challenging due to data availability and correlated unobservables. This paper overcomes these challenges in the context of Norway's criminal justice system, offering new insights into how incarceration affects subsequent crime and employment. We construct a panel dataset containing the criminal behavior and labor market outcomes of the entire population, and exploit the random assignment of criminal cases to judges who differ systematically in their stringency in sentencing defendants to prison. Using judge stringency as an instrumental variable, we find that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, and that the reduction extends beyond incapacitation. Incarceration decreases the probability an individual will reoffend within 5 years by 29 percentage points, and reduces the number of offenses over this same period by 11 criminal charges. In comparison, OLS shows positive associations between incarceration and subsequent criminal behavior. This sharp contrast suggests the high rates of recidivism among ex-convicts is due to selection, and not a consequence of the experience of being in prison. Exploring factors that may explain the preventive effect of incarceration, we find the decline in crime is driven by individuals who were not working prior to incarceration. Among these individuals, imprisonment increases participation in programs directed at improving employability and reducing recidivism, and ultimately, raises employment and earnings while discouraging further criminal behavior. For previously employed individuals, while there is no effect on recidivism, there is a lasting negative effect on employment. Contrary to the widely embraced `nothing works' doctrine, these findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can indeed be preventive for a large segment of the criminal population.
    Keywords: crime; employment; incarceration; Recidivism
    JEL: J24 K42
    Date: 2018–10
  43. By: Asma Benhenda (University College London, Institute of Education)
    Abstract: This paper offers a new method to estimate the budgetary cost of grade retention that takes into account a) the impact of grade retention on students' school path; b) the dynamic impact of variations in grade retention on the flow of student enrolment across grades. Using administrative data on students in French secondary schools, I instrument retention by students' date of birth and find that the marginal impact of one year of retention is to increase the number of years of schooling by exactly one year. Modelling student enrolment with a discrete Markov chain model, I simulate a counterfactual scenario where grade retention is completely abolished. I find that budgetary savings increase only gradually and reach a steady state only when students who were entering primary school at the time of the abolition have left high school.
    JEL: I21 I22 J20
    Date: 2018–09–01
  44. By: Marvin Kraus (Boston College)
  45. By: Campo, Francesco (University of Milan Bicocca); Forte, Giuseppe (King's College London); Portes, Jonathan (King's College London)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between migration and productivity in the UK, using an instrumental variable along the lines suggested by Bianchi, Buonanno and Pinotti (2012). Our results suggest that immigration has a positive and significant impact (in both the statistical sense and more broadly) on productivity, as measured at a geographical level; this appears to be driven by higher-skilled workers. The results for training are less clear, but suggest that higher-skilled immigration may have a positive impact on the training of native workers. We discuss the implications for post-Brexit immigration policy.
    Keywords: immigration, productivity, training, Great Britain
    JEL: E24 J24 J61 M53
    Date: 2018–09
  46. By: Hannah Druckenmiller; Solomon Hsiang
    Abstract: We propose a simple cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects that is robust to unobservable heterogeneity. When many observational units are adjacent, it may be sufficient to regress the "spatial first differences" (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. This approach is conceptually similar to first differencing approaches in time-series or panel models, except the index for time is replaced with an index for locations in space. The SFD approach identifies plausibly causal effects so long as local changes in the treatment and unobservable confounders are not systematically correlated between immediately adjacent neighbors. We illustrate how this approach can mitigate omitted variables bias through simulation and by estimating returns to schooling along 10th Avenue in New York and I-90 in Chicago. We then more fully explore the benefits of this approach by estimating effects of climate and soil on maize yields across US counties. In each case, we demonstrate the performance of the research design by withholding important covariates during estimation. SFD has multiple appealing features, such as internal robustness checks that exploit rotation of the coordinate system or double-differencing across space, it is immediately applicable to spatially-gridded data sets, and it can be easily implemented in statical packages by replacing a single index in pre-existing time-series functions.
    Date: 2018–10
  47. By: P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
    Abstract: This paper documents a project carried out under contract with the U.S. Department of Commerce. As stated in the contract, the aim was to: "provide the means to conduct analyses of the impacts of trade on employment by industry and occupation in regional labor markets via the creation of a labor market module add-on to the dynamic version of USAGE-TERM. The resultant labor-market enhanced dynamic USAGE-TERM model will give users the capability to identify structural adjustment problems arising from difficulties that workers displaced by trade may have in transferring their skills to alternative employment possibilities in other industries and/or regions." In the paper we provide technical documentation on how the labor-market module was created and illustrate its application by simulating the effects on regional labor markets of a hypothetical reduction in U.S. exports of Machinery and equipment.
    Keywords: regional labor markets multi-regional CGE dynamic CGE labor mobility
    JEL: C68 J62 R13
    Date: 2018–06
  48. By: Vitaly M. Bord; Victoria Ivashina; Ryan D. Taliaferro
    Abstract: We show that since 2007, there was a large and persistent shift in the composition of lenders to small firms. Large banks impacted by the real estate prices collapse systematically contracted their credit to all small firms throughout the U.S.. However, healthy banks expanded their operations and entered new banking markets. The market share gain of these banks was a standard deviation above the long-run historical market share growth and persists for years following the financial crisis. Despite this offsetting expansion, the net effect of the contraction in credit was negative, with lower aggregate credit and deposits growth, and lower entrepreneurial activity through 2015.
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2018–10
  49. By: Iñiguez, David; Ortega, Raquel; Rivero, Alejandro; Velilla, Jorge
    Abstract: The objective of the work is to know the behavior of new Spanish companies in social networks and the use they make of them, trying to establish relationships between the type of company and its behavior in the digital world. We obtain information on the almost 30,000 companies constituted between October 1, 2016 and September 30, 2017 from the Official Bulletin of the Mercantile Registry (BORME), using the classification of economic activities CNAE when defining the type of company. The newly created companies show interest in visualizing themselves in social networks, 36% in Facebook, 23% in LinkedIn and 15% in Twitter, detecting also activity in Instagram and YouTube for some particular niches, being the commercial activity (Group C of CNAE) the predominant in the presence of new Spanish companies in social networks.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, New Companies, Social Networks, Spain, Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter
    JEL: L26
    Date: 2018
  50. By: Mamedli Mariam (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: According to the household finance surveys conducted in 2013 and 2015, the credit penetration rate varies across federal districts. Differences in credit penetration levels can be partly attributed to the loan demand factors. For example, low credit penetration in the Central Federal District stems from the relatively high level of accumulated net assets (especially as regards liquid assets), which reduces the demand for loans. In Eastern Russia, in districts with comparable income levels and less net assets, high credit penetration rates are primarily attributable to income growth expectations. In these regions, accumulated net assets are generally viewed as a supplement to loans. Analysis of the loan demand model in Southern Russia points out a relatively high level of risk, with loan demand growing despite deterioration of the financial situation (including financial expectations). Low credit penetration in the underperforming districts has largely to do with credit supply constraints as banks factor in higher risks associated with strong gross regional product volatility and job market uncertainties. This means that aggressive loan expansion driven by the growing number of new borrowers in the federal districts with small and volatile incomes and a lower credit penetration rate may threaten the social and financial stability in such regions.
    Date: 2018–11
  51. By: Nikolka, Till
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of family ties for international return migration decisions. The presence of children in the household affects return propensities of couples in different ways. Results suggest that schooling considerations as well as factors related to cultural identity play a role for family return migration. Moreover, the paper studies self-selection into return migration with respect to the partners’ incomes. Couples returning from Denmark to the non-Nordic countries are positively selected with respect to primary earner income. Positive selection holds for male and female primary earners; it is weaker among dual earner couples and among couples with children.
    Keywords: International migration,Family migration,Return migration,Education
    JEL: F22 J13 J61
    Date: 2018
  52. By: Stefano Fusaro (AQR-IREA. University of Barcelona.); Enrique López-Bazo (AQR-IREA. University of Barcelona.)
    Abstract: Whether host countries economically benefit or not from immigration is a longstanding debate. In this paper, by taking advantage of the consistent variation of foreign - born workers' settlements across local labor market, we investigate the impact of immigration on native employment in Italy over the period 2009 -2017. Both the country and the time span considered represent an interesting novelty that adds a further piece of evidence to the existing literature. Despite the fact that immigration has recently become a major issue, the studies on the impact of immigration into Italy are indeed relatively scarce. In addition, the peculiar institutional framework of Italy, that plays a crucial role in the extent to which local labor markets are able to absorb immigration induced supply shocks, makes this analysis particularly relevant. Likewise, the period analyzed is of extreme interest since it is characterized by the combination of the economic downturn and by an unprecedented increase of the migratory in inflows. Overall, the results contradict the belief that immigrants \take away jobs from natives" and present a scenario in which foreign -born workers have an average negligible impact on native employment o pportunities.Consistently with the canonical model of immigration however, when distinguishing the native population by education levels, the results indicate a positive impact on high -educated natives and a strong negative one on low -educated. Nevertheless, after controlling for immigrants’ “skill - downgrading” and for natives' over -education, the negative impact estimated for the latter experiences a consistent reduction.
    Keywords: Immigration; Employment; Local Labor Markets; Shift-Share; Bartik Instrument; Italian Provinces JEL classification: J15; J61; R23-
    Date: 2018–07
  53. By: Hirte, Georg; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
    Abstract: Transportation economists apply different labor supply models when studying anti-congestion policy: (i) endogenous working hours; (ii) endogenous workdays but given daily working hours; (iii) labor supply as a residual. We study whether the outcome of anti-congestion policies that change the relative cost of labor supply margins, and, thus, may affect decisions on working hours and working days, is robust against the model applied. In particular, we focus on welfare implications in the presence of other taxes when there is a congestion externality. We find surprisingly strong differences in quantity and sign. Further, we develop a clear recommendation for future research on issues that include decisions on commuting trips. Researchers shall apply both a model of endogenous working hours that provides an upper limit and a model of endogenous workdays that provide a lower limit of results for welfare changes, optimal policies and two optimal tax components (Pigouvian and Ramsey terms).
    Keywords: Public Economics,Tax Design,Time Allocation,Labor Supply,Pigouvian Tax,Urban Economics,CGE,Spatial Modeling,Transportation,Transportation Economics,Transport Policy,Congestion
    JEL: H2 H3 J2 R1 R4
    Date: 2018
  54. By: MARVIN KRAUS (Boston College)

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