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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Mark J. Holmes (Department of Economics, Waikato University, New Zealand); Jesús Otero (Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, Colombia); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent of convergence club formation in local house prices. Our study is novel in a number of key ways. First, new insights are obtained through utilising a large disaggregated panel dataset comprising multiple types of housing (detached, semi-detached, terraced housing and flats) for a very large sample of 348 England and Wales local authorities. Second, we analyse through probit estimation those factors that drive convergence club formation. Third, we also consider within-city club formation as well as club formation during periods of house price bubbles. Using a study period of more than two decades, we find the presence of divergence or multiple house price convergence clubs rather than a single club. While location, distance, income, population density, congestion and education are significant in explaining convergence club formation, housing type is also an important factor with convergence less likely among detached, semi-detached and terraced housing than among flats. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, clubs, house prices, England and Wales |
| JEL: | C2 C3 R1 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:18-35&r=ure |
| By: | Konrad Zelazowski |
| Abstract: | Average house prices usually differ across regions. Spatial variation in residential property prices can be attributed to social, economic and historical characteristics of regional marekts. Moreover, existing studies do not provide strong evidence for convergence of house price levels in regional dimension. The lack of price level convergence, however, does not exclude convergence in terms of price dynamics. The paper tries to answer the question whether price trajectories on regional housing markets in Poland show long-term similarity. Using quarterly data covering the period of 2003-2017, the panel unit root testing has been conducted on relative prices across sixteen regional housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; Housing Prices; price convergence |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_278&r=ure |
| By: | Ying-Hui Chiang |
| Abstract: | Current governmental data on rental housing-only by agencies have to be registered- do not reflect real market activity on the Taipei rental market. This study is trying to use web scraping to collect the big data. By cleaning, analyzing and mapping the data reveal spatial and temporal patterns cross districts housing markets in Taipei City. The rental market issue is more important in Taipei with surging housing price. The research will build the rent model to estimate fair rent of different types housing. To assess the rent affordability by the ratio between social housing rent and fair rent. To calculate the rent burdens by the ratio between median household income and median rent across the statistical area. We use two indicators that rent affordability and rent burden to discuss the social housing policy in Taipei. The findings are to capture the real rental market in Taipei and to provide suggestions for social housing policy by using big data. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; Housing Rent; Social Houing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_246&r=ure |
| By: | Lindgren, Samuel (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)) |
| Abstract: | Credible estimates of the cost of traffic noise are crucial to the assessment of the merits of noise control policies. This study estimates the cost of aircraft noise by measuring its capitalization into housing prices following an unexpected renewal of the operating contract for a local airport. The results show that a one decibel increase in aircraft noise leads to a reduction in housing values of 0.3 percent, or $1,200, on average. The capitalization rate is larger the higher is the property’s value, size and standard which suggest that owners of these houses benefit relatively more from noise abatement measures. |
| Keywords: | noise pollution; value of environmental goods |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 R23 R31 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_015&r=ure |
| By: | Corinne Autant-Bernard (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint-Etienne, France); James P. LeSage (Fields Endowed Chair in Urban and Regional Economics, McCoy College of Business Administration, Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas 78666) |
| Abstract: | Past literature has used conventional spatial autoregressive panel data models to relate patent production output to knowledge production inputs. However, research conducted on regional innovation systems points to regional disparities in both regions ability to turn their knowledge inputs into innovation and to access external knowledge. Applying a heterogeneous coefficients spatial autoregressive panel model, we estimate region-specific knowledge production functions for 94 NUTS3 regions in France using a panel covering 21 years from 1988 to 2008 and 4 high-technology industries. A great deal of regional heterogeneity in the knowledge production function relationship exists across regions, providing new insights regarding spatial spillin and spillout effects between regions. |
| Keywords: | knowledge production, spatial econometrics, region-specific parameters |
| JEL: | C21 O31 O52 R12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1814&r=ure |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Sebastian Kriticos; Dzhamilya Nigmatulina |
| Abstract: | At the heart of urban economics are agglomeration economies, which drive the existence and extent of cities and are also central to structural transformation and the urbanization process. This paper evaluates the use of different measures of economic density in assessing urban agglomeration effects, by examining how well they explain household income differences across cities and neighborhoods in six African countries. We examine simple scale and density measures and more nuanced ones which capture in second moments the extent of clustering within cities. The evidence suggests that more nuanced measures attempting to capture within-city differences in the extent of clustering do no better than a simple density measure in explaining income differences across cities, at least for the current degree of accuracy in measuring clustering. However, simple city scale measures such as total population are inferior to density measures and to some degree misleading. We find large household income premiums from being in bigger and particularly denser cities over rural areas in Africa, indicating that migration pull forces remain very strong in the structural transformation process. Moreover, the marginal effects of increases in urban density on household income are very large, with density elasticities of 0.6. In addition to strong city level density effects, we find strong neighborhood effects. For household incomes, both overall city density and density of the own neighborhood matter. |
| Keywords: | cities, economic density, Africa |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1569&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Wouters (KU Leuven); Zoltan Hermann (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary (CERSHAS) and Corvinus University of Budapest); Carla Haelermans (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate preferences for school tracks in upper secondary education in Hungary. We consider travel time, school SES composition, school level (in terms of peer quality) and school quality (in terms of added value). We find that students have stronger preferences for school SES composition and school level, rather than school quality (which may be harder to observe). Furthermore, these preferences vary between high and low ranked schools, indicating students use heuristics in the process of compiling their ranked preference list. |
| Keywords: | school choice, school composition, school quality, rank-ordered logit |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:bworkp:1803&r=ure |
| By: | Chevalier, Arnaud (Royal Holloway, University of London); Elsner, Benjamin (University College Dublin); Lichter, Andreas (IZA); Pestel, Nico (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of immigration on public policy setting. As a natural experiment, we exploit the sudden arrival of eight million forced migrants in West Germany after World War II. These migrants were on average poorer than the West German population, but unlike most international migrants they had full voting rights and were eligible for social welfare. Using panel data for West German cities and applying difference-in-differences and an instrumental variables approach, we show that local governments responded to this migration shock with selective and persistent tax raises as well as shifts in spending. In response to the inflow, farm and business owners were taxed more while residential property and wage bill taxes were left unchanged. Moreover, high-inflow cities significantly raised welfare spending while reducing spending on infrastructure and housing. Election data suggest that these policy changes were partly driven by the political influence of the immigrants: in high-inflow regions, the major parties were more likely to nominate immigrants as candidates, and a pro-immigrant party received high vote shares. We further document that this episode of mass immigration had lasting effects on people's preferences for redistribution. In areas with larger inflows in the 1940s, people have substantially higher demand for redistribution more than 50 years later. |
| Keywords: | migration, taxation, spending, welfare state |
| JEL: | J61 H20 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11725&r=ure |
| By: | Nan Liu |
| Abstract: | We argue that economic shocks to a regional private housing market are transmitted through the hierarchical structure of the market, and this ripple effect is not only confined within the owner-occupier sector, but also across the private rented sector. Our empirical analysis is related to existing models of spatial ripple effects across housing markets, we use transaction prices and rents in the Aberdeen housing market of northeast Scotland, and our preliminary findings support the argument that economic shocks result domino effect in prices and rents through the quality continuum. |
| Keywords: | Economic shock; Price; Private housing; Rent; Ripple effect |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_194&r=ure |
| By: | Ion Anghel; Ciprian Sipos; Marilena Mironiuc; Elena Ionascu |
| Abstract: | Our research investigate the dynamics of European real estate markets from the perspective of the house price index (HPI) in correlation with relevant economic variables, such as: economic growth, household disposable income, residential loans, interest rate on new residential loans, housing stock, and property tax. Thus, we provide a new approach to analyse the real estate market dynamics with practical and direct implications on all three market participants – the debtor, the creditor and the state, in order to ensure financial stability. The results of panel analysis revealed the very strong statistical influence of ratio “nominal house price to disposal income of households” but a weak statistical influence of interest rate and level of property taxes on the price index. This evidences generates discussions about the efficiency of tax and interest rate policies in some countries. Moreover, mortgage credit remains one of the major contributors to real economic growth, accounting for 47% of EU GDP. It facilitates the access of population to real estate properties and, thus, indirectly generates tax revenues in state budgets. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; housing supply and markets; Interest Rate; Macroeconomic Determinants; value-based taxation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_189&r=ure |
| By: | Peter Ganong; Pascal Noel |
| Abstract: | We use variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments (“wealth”), and reducing short-term payments with approximately no change in long-term obligations (“liquidity”). Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find that principal reductions that increase housing wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect, while maturity extensions that increase only liquidity have large effects. Our results suggest that liquidity drives borrower default and consumption decisions, and that distressed debt restructurings can be redesigned with substantial gains to borrowers, lenders, and taxpayers. |
| JEL: | D14 G21 R28 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24964&r=ure |
| By: | Richard Murphy; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a new fact about educational production: ordinal academic rank during primary school has long-run impacts that are independent from underlying ability. Using data on the universe of English school students, we exploit naturally occurring differences in achievement distributions across primary school classes to estimate the impact of class rank conditional on relative achievement. We find large effects on test scores, confidence and subject choice during secondary school, where students have a new set of peers and teachers who are unaware of the students’ prior ranking. The effects are especially large for boys, contributing to an observed gender gap in end-of-high school STEM subject choices. Using a basic model of student effort allocation across subjects, we derive and test a hypothesis to distinguish between learning and non-cognitive skills mechanisms and find support for the latter. |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24958&r=ure |
| By: | Craig Wesley Carpenter; F. Carson Mencken; Charles M. Tolbert; Michael Lotspeich |
| Abstract: | Access to financial capital is vital for the sustainability of the local business sector in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communities. Recent research on the restructuring of the financial industry from local owned banks to interstate conglomerates has raised questions about the impact on rural economies. In this paper, we begin our exploration of the Market Concentration Hypothesis and the Local Bank Hypothesis. The former proposes that there is a negative relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a positive effect on business deaths, while that latter proposes that there is a positive relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a negative effect on business deaths. To examine these hypotheses, we examine the impact of bank ownership concentration (percent of banks that are locally owned in a commuting zone) on business establishment births and deaths in metropolitan, micropolitan and non-core rural commuting zones. We employ panel regression models for the 1980-2010 time frame, demonstrating robustness to several specifications and spatial spillover effects. We find that local bank concentration is positively related to business dynamism in rural commuting zones, providing support to the importance of relational lending in rural areas, while finding support for the importance of market concentration in urban areas. The implications of this research are important for rural sociology, regional economics, and finance. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:18-34&r=ure |
| By: | Henderson, J. Vernon; Storeygard, Adam; Deichmann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. In regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes. There, urban migration provides an "escape" from negative agricultural moisture shocks. However, in the remaining market towns (75% of our sample), cities just service agriculture. Reduced farm incomes from negative shocks reduce demand for urban services and derived demand for urban labor. There, drying has little impact on urbanization or total urban incomes. Lack of structural transformation in Africa inhibits a better response to climate change. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Urbanization; Climate Change |
| JEL: | O10 O55 Q54 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67654&r=ure |
| By: | Whitehead, Christine |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the many reasons why housing policy can appear to be both incoherent and ineffective - with too many Departments involved each with different objectives and a plethora of policies pulling in different directions. Drawing on earlier research findings the paper discusses three examples which have impacted on tenure mix – the growth in the private rented sector where policy initiatives – except for unintended side effects – have been limited and market and macroeconomic pressures have dominated; a range of tax anomalies which provide inconsistent incentives and generate considerable costs to the economy; and the impact of specific policies which concentrate on supporting owner-occupation through new build initiatives. The paper concludes by asking whether housing policy is inherently unable to withstand the pressures placed on it by both politics and macroeconomic realities. |
| Keywords: | housing policy; private sector; housing taxation; new build; owner-occupation |
| JEL: | H11 H24 H31 H44 |
| Date: | 2018–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:90172&r=ure |
| By: | Khorunzhina, Natalia |
| Abstract: | I investigate empirically the intratemporal dependence between nondurable consumption and housing. Using the data on maintenance expenditures and self-assessed house value, I separate the measure of housing stock and house prices, and use these data for estimation of the model, which allows for testing whether consumption and housing are characterized by intratemporal nonseparability in the contemporaneous utility. I find evidence in favor of a substitution mechanism between housing and total nondurable consumption. A similar conclusion is reached for some separate consumption categories, such as food, transport, clothing, vacations, and entertainment. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Nondurable Consumption, Intratemporal Nonseparability |
| JEL: | C51 D12 D13 E21 R21 |
| Date: | 2018–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88667&r=ure |
| By: | Waldemar Beimer; Wolfgang Maennig |
| Abstract: | Purpose - Most studies on real estate focus on one of the housing sectors, i.e. single family homes or apartments. On average, single family houses have higher prices compared to apartments. This work looks at a relative price trend between the two asset groups, as well as its dynamics. In order to disclose information about the sources of potential changes in preferences the gap is decomposed.Design/methodology/approach - Using data form Berlin, Germany this contribution disentangles the mark-up between SFH and APP by the usual housing characteristics, amenities and socioeconomic variables. Following the majority of the hedonic literature in real estate research the analysis starts with a semi-log hedonic model. Different spatial economic approaches verify the results. Finally the Oaxaca decomposition technique is applied to distinguish between the different determinants of the observed gap.Findings – The hedonic regression results confirm earlier studies for most explanatory variables. It is shown that preferences between SFH and APP change over time, mostly driven by a higher preferences for amenities for APP and higher evaluation of the larger floorspace of SFH. Originality/value –The approach allows to estimate price indexes for real estate assets which are not dependent on the general price level or inflation. The novelty lies in filling a literature gap regarding the explanation of the price gap between single family homes and apartments. |
| Keywords: | Berlin; Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition; Preference changes; Real estate prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_217&r=ure |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Hyunjin Kim; Michael Luca |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate that data from digital platforms such as Yelp have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification, both by providing data in close to real time (i.e. nowcasting and forecasting) and by providing additional context about how the local economy is changing. Combining Yelp and Census data, we find that gentrification, as measured by changes in the educational, age, and racial composition within a ZIP code, is strongly associated with increases in the numbers of grocery stores, cafes, restaurants, and bars, with little evidence of crowd-out of other categories of businesses. We also find that changes in the local business landscape is a leading indicator of housing price changes, and that the entry of Starbucks (and coffee shops more generally) into a neighborhood predicts gentrification. Each additional Starbucks that enters a zip code is associated with a 0.5% increase in housing prices. |
| JEL: | D22 O18 O30 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24952&r=ure |
| By: | Sotiris Tsolacos; Yi Wu; Samuel Duah |
| Abstract: | We examine office yield behaviour in key European cities which account for the bulk of investment transactions in Europe. A number of studies investigate the cross sectional influences on real estate yields identifying factors which drive the geographical variation of yields. These studies also highlight global factors driving yields in addition to geography specific influences. Research work using time-series data ascertain the impact of dynamic drivers of yields such as the business cycle and yields in alternative asset classes. This study examines the response of yields to dynamic influences that reflect changing macroeconomic and investment conditions. We explicitly examine the relevance of investor sentiment in yield movements by including both direct and indirect measures. The empirical investigation extends to include the ‘flight-to-quality/liquidity” phenomenon in bond and real estate markets. We pool the European office yield data provided by BNP Paribas and opt for a panel VAR (PVAR). This framework allows interaction among variables but also across cities. We study whether yield changes are contemporaneous or some cities move first. Given that the cities in the sample are heterogeneous the PVAR allows for individual heterogeneity by introducing fixed effects. A useful extension of this methodology is to study shocks and their impact across cities such as the response of city office yields to political uncertainties in various parts of Europe. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic; interactions; Modelling; Office; yields |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_273&r=ure |
| By: | Hans R. A. Koster; Edward W. Pinchbeck |
| Abstract: | Despite the near ubiquity of inter-temporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from extensive data on housing transactions and spatio-temporal variation in property taxes in England. Our findings imply long-term average discount rates that are between 3 and 4%. The close correspondence to prevailing market interest rates gives little reason to suggest that households misoptimise by materially undervaluing very long term financial flows in this high stakes context. |
| Keywords: | housing, property taxes, discount rate, capitalisation rate, undervaluation |
| JEL: | G10 R30 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1571&r=ure |
| By: | Joshua H. Gallin; Raven S. Molloy; Eric Nielsen; Paul A. Smith; Kamila Sommer |
| Abstract: | We construct a new measure of aggregate U.S. housing wealth based on Zillow’s Automated Valuation Model (AVM). AVMs offer advantages over other methods because they are based on recent market transaction prices, utilize large datasets which include property characteristics and local geographic variables, and are updated frequently with little lag. However, using Zillow’s AVM to measure aggregate housing wealth requires overcoming several challenges related to the representativeness of the Zillow sample. We propose methods that address these challenges and generate a new estimate of aggregate U.S. housing wealth from 2001 to 2016. This new measure provides insights into some of the disadvantages of other approaches to measuring housing wealth. Specifically, with respect to the owner valuations typically used in survey data, it appears that homeowners were slow to recognize the drop in housing wealth during the financial crisis and that their estimates of this drop were unrealistically small. At the same time, repeat-sales price indexes appear to overstate the extent of the drop in value between 2006 and 2011 and overstate the recovery thereafter. |
| Keywords: | Consumer economics and finance ; Data collection and estimation ; Flow of funds ; Residential real estate |
| JEL: | R31 E21 C82 |
| Date: | 2018–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-64&r=ure |
| By: | Cai, Zhengyu; Maguire, Karen; Winters, John V. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines local labor market outcomes from an oil and gas boom. We examine two main outcomes across gender, race, and ethnicity: the probability of employment in the oil and gas industry and the log wages of workers employed outside the oil and gas industry. We find that men and women both gain employment in the oil and gas industry during booms, but such gains are much larger for men and are largest for black and Hispanic men. We also find positive income spillovers for workers in other industries that are similar in magnitude across demographic groups. |
| Keywords: | Oil,Natural Gas,Employment,Gender,Race,Energy |
| JEL: | J20 Q33 Q40 R10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:246&r=ure |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location and patents of firms active in R&D since 1921; and a historical state-level corporate tax database since 1900, which we link to an existing database on state-level personal income taxes. Our analysis focuses on the impact of taxes on individual inventors and firms (the micro level) and on states over time (the macro level). We propose several identification strategies, all of which yield consistent results: i) OLS with fixed effects, including inventor and state-times-year fixed effects, which make use of differences between tax brackets within a state-year cell and which absorb heterogeneity and contemporaneous changes in economic conditions; ii) an instrumental variable approach, which predicts changes in an individual or firm's total tax rate with changes in the federal tax rate only; iii) a border county strategy, which exploits tax variation across neighboring counties in different states. We find that taxes matter for innovation: higher personal and corporate income taxes negatively affect the quantity, quality, and location of inventive activity at the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, cross-state spillovers or business-stealing from one state to another are important, but do not account for all of the effect. Agglomeration effects from local innovation clusters tend to weaken responsiveness to taxation. Corporate inventors respond more strongly to taxes than their non-corporate counterparts. |
| JEL: | H24 H25 H31 J61 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24982&r=ure |
| By: | James Culley; Thomas Murphy |
| Abstract: | The student-housing sector has experiences a boom as an alternative real estate asset class over the last few years. A large part of the success of this sector is due to the demand from international students for high quality accommodation when studying in the United Kingdom.The continued success of the student-housing sector in the UK is dependent upon there being large annual inflows of international students. However, despite the importance of international students to the UK economy, and the increased importance of the student-housing sector, there has been very little academic or commercial research examining the current magnitude of international student flows or how these flows can be expected to change over time.In this paper, we develop a spatial interaction model and demonstrate how it can be employed to illustrate international higher education student flows at the national level. We model existing variations in student flows and, using the UK as an example, show how different economic circumstances and government policies can effect international student inflows and outflows.After testing our model against UNESCO data, we conclude that spatial interaction modelling is an effective tool for analysing and evaluating existing student flows and how these flows might adjust if the economic fortunes or policy environments of individual countries change. |
| Keywords: | Predictive modelling; Spatial Analysis; Student Sector |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_207&r=ure |
| By: | Kang, Dongwoo; Dall'Erba, Sandy; Peng, Kun |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Production Economics, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2017–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258285&r=ure |
| By: | Amedeo Piolatto (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | Lower-level governments often receive federal support through transfers or bailouts. We study how the regional or local ties of federal politicians can steer this process. We build a two-tier model of government, where regionally elected federal legislators bargain over federal support aimed at their own constituency. This leads to strategic voting on the regional level. Federal legislators are strategically elected to watch over the interests of their own region, cushioning shocks to local consumption and driving down borrowing costs. Lower-level legislators anticipate this, which sets the stage for regional over-borrowing both if they receive annual grants, or when a bailout scheme is introduced during periods of crisis. Voters strategically select federal representatives with more extreme positions than the median voter, as long as federal co-funding schemes imply some degree of interregional redistribution. These theoretical predictions are con¿rmed by our empirical analysis, where we compare the political extremism of representatives elected to the EU Parliament with that of representatives elected to national Parliaments. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Delegation, Decentralisation, Soft Budget Constraints, Political Extremism, Bailouts, Intergovernmental Grants, Fiscal Federalism. |
| JEL: | H6 H71 H74 H77 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2018-05&r=ure |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Wennström, Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | The Swedish school system suffers from profound problems with teacher recruitment and retention, knowledge decline, and grade inflation. Absenteeism is high, and psychiatric disorders have risen sharply among Swedish pupils in the last ten years. In this pioneering analysis of the consequences of combining institutionalized social constructivism with extensive marketization of education, we suggest that these problems regarding school quality are to no small extent a result of the Swedish school system’s unlikely combination of a postmodern view of truth and knowledge, the ensuing pedagogy of child-centered discovery, and market principles. Our study adds to the findings from previous attempts to study the effects of social-constructivist pedagogy in nonmarket contexts and yields the implication that caution is necessary for countries, notably the U.S., that have a tradition of social-constructivist practices in their education systems and are considering implementing or expanding market-based school reforms. |
| Keywords: | For-profit schools; Marketized education; School choice; Social constructivism; Voucher system |
| JEL: | H42 H44 H75 I22 I28 L88 |
| Date: | 2018–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1228&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Gloria Billé (Free University of Bolzano‐Bozen, Faculty of Economics, Italy); Leopoldo Catania (Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Business Economics and CREATES, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new spatio-temporal model with time-varying spatial weighting matrices. We allow for a general parameterization of the spatial matrix, such as: (i) a function of the inverse distances among pairs of units to the power of an unknown time-varying distance decay parameter, and (ii) a negative exponential function of the time-varying parameter as in (i). The filtering procedure of the time-varying parameters is performed using the information in the score of the conditional distribution of the observables. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate the finite sample properties of the ML estimator is reported. We analyze the association between eight European countries' perceived risk, suggesting that the economically strong countries have their perceived risk increased due to their spatial connection with the economically weaker countries, and we investigates the evolution of the spatial connection between the house prices in different areas of the UK, identifying periods when the usually adopted sparse weighting matrix is not sufficient to describe the underlying spatial process. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic spatial autoregressive models, Time-varying weighting matrices, Distance decay functions |
| JEL: | C33 C61 C58 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps55&r=ure |
| By: | Bao, Yangming; Goetz, Martin |
| Abstract: | We examine how a firms' investment behavior affects the investment of a neighboring firm. Economic theory yields ambiguous predictions regarding the direction of firm peer effects and consistent with earlier work, we find that firms display similar investment behavior within an area using OLS analysis. Exploiting time-variation in the rise of U.S. states' corporate income taxes and utilizing heterogeneity in firms' exposure to increases in corporate income tax rates, we identify the causal impact of local firms' investments. Using this as an instrumental variable in a 2SLS estimation, we find that an increases in local firms' investment reduces the investment of a local peer firm. This effect is more pronounced if local competition among firms is stronger and supports theories that firm investments are strategic substitutes due to competition. |
| Keywords: | Investments,Peer Effects,Agglomeration,Corporate Income Tax |
| JEL: | G31 G38 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:220&r=ure |
| By: | Adão, Rodrigo; Kolesár, Michal; Morales, Eduardo |
| Abstract: | We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of observed sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. Commuting Zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independently of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show that our methods yield substantially wider confidence intervals in popular applications of shift-share regression designs. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13118&r=ure |
| By: | LEE KWANGBAE (Sunchon National University) |
| Abstract: | Shift-share analysis is a decomposition technique widely used in regional studies to identify sectoral growth effects of economic variables. As globalization progresses rapidly, much attention has been paid to the extension of shift-share analysis, but the most important phenomenon is to extend the traditional shift-share analysis to international trade. Henderson (1962) developed a regional growth rate differential analysis that shows growth contribution by sector.This paper analyzed the export fluctuation by factors of 10 major export items of Gwangyang Port and Incheon Port by applying shift-share analysis and growth rate differential analysis. This paper differs from the previous studies in two respects. First, it applies the shift-share analysis and the regional growth rate differential analysis so that each technique can complement each other. Second, the export weight is analyzed instead of the export amount which focuses on the existing research.In the case of Gwangyang Port, the regional allocation effect of nine items out of 10 items has a positive sign, but in the growth rate differential analysis, the competitive factors of most items have negative signs, and the analysis shows opposite results. In the case of Incheon port, the shift-share analysis shows that the industrial structure effect and regional allocation effect have positive signs in three items. However, in the regional growth rate differential analysis, both weighting factor and competitiveness factor have no positive sign. This analysis implies that both techniques should be applied together in order to accurately resolve and evaluate port export structure and competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | growth rate differential analysis, shift-share analysis, industry-mix effect, regional competitive effect, rate component, weight component |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:6408988&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda (Department of Economics and SFS, Georgetown University); Giovanni Peri (University of California, Davis); Walter Steingress (Bank of Canada - Banque du Canada) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. We find that an increase in the first type of immigrants decreases the share of the Republican vote, while an inflow of the second type increases it. These effects are mainly due to the local impact of immigrants on votes of U.S. citizens and they seem independent of the country of origin of immigrants. We also find that the pro-Republican impact of low-skilled immigrants is stronger in low-skilled and non-urban counties. This is consistent with citizens’ political preferences shifting towards the Republican Party in places where low-skilled immigrants are more likely to be perceived as competition in the labor market and for public resources. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Republican Party, Electoral Effects, Economic and Fiscal Channels. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~18-18-09&r=ure |
| By: | Anja Prummer (Queen Mary University of London); Jan-Peter Siedlarek (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | We explain persistent differences in cultural traits of immigrant groups with the presence of community leaders. Leaders influence the cultural traits of their community, which have an impact on the group's earnings. They determine whether a community will be more assimilated and wealthier or less assimilated and poorer. With a leader cultural integration remains incomplete. The leader chooses more distinctive cultural traits in high productivity environments and if the community is more connected. Lump sum transfers to immigrants can hinder cultural integration. These findings are in line with integration patterns of various ethnic and religious groups. |
| Keywords: | Cultural transmission, Leadership, Immigrants, Labor market outcomes, Social influence, Networks |
| JEL: | J15 Z10 D02 |
| Date: | 2016–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:806&r=ure |
| By: | Ewa Kucharska-Stasiak; Magdalena Zaleczna; Konrad Zelazowski |
| Abstract: | Housing markets are primarily of the local and national character. This is mostly due to the specificity of real estate (mainly its immobility),as well as historical and socio-economic determinants (influencing the structure of housing stock, the purchasing power of households in the housing market, the profitability of housing investment, the cost of financing housing). Among the crucial factors determining the development path of national housing markets one can mention their institutional organisation. Institutions, legal regulations, cultural norms create the framework within which housing markets operate. In the process of integration of the European economies, however, the trend towards the unification of institutional background of national housing markets can be seen.The aim of the paper is to investigate the scope and dynamics of institutional convergence processes in European housing markets. Three dimensions of institutional environment of housing markets were investigated: the role of public authorities in housing sector, the ownership structure of housing stock and the housing finance system. |
| Keywords: | convergence; Housing Markets; institutional dimension of housing sector; institutional economics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_279&r=ure |
| By: | Tanner, S. |
| Abstract: | The frequency and severity of wildfires in the United States has increased dramatically over the past few decades, with both climatic conditions and development into wildland areas fueling this trend. We explore how high-intensity wildfires impact communities living in areas of significant wildland fire risk near national forests in Southern California. The study area contains several megacities that are directly adjacent to four of the most heavily trafficked national forests. Home prices in communities near the forests are valued for their scenery, abundant recreational opportunities, and respite from the cities. Directly after a wildfire, disamenities such as a less attractive view, loss of recreation sites, and increased perception of risk should be capitalized into home prices. We contribute to the literature on wildfire impacts by estimating the impact of a recent fire on property sales prices along two dimensions: properties close to the wildfire compared with properties farther away, and properties in designated areas of high fire risk. Our findings suggest significant heterogeneous impacts of wildfire depending on whether the property is located on highrisk land, as well as evidence that proximity to a national forest can alter the risk perceptions of potential home buyers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:275955&r=ure |
| By: | Wolfgang Brunauer; Wolfgang Feilmayr; Karin Wagner |
| Abstract: | Price movements in the residential property market are often small-scale and can lead to regional over- / undervaluations that cannot be reported on an aggregated level. However, the derivation of regionalized price developments demands for appropriate methods and sufficient big data sample sizes. Therefore, the Austrian residential property price Index, which is published quarterly by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), has been methodically revised: Instead of the previously used time dummy approach, which only allows for an evaluation at the model region level, the new index is based on double imputation methods, which makes possible an almost arbitrary regionalization. In this study, we describe the impact of the methodical changes on the index developments on an aggregated level. Furthermore, the new models allow a more granular regional breakdown of the index series. The resulting data series can be used for a more detailed monitoring of developments in the residential property market and can serve even as an input for a more granular regionalized fundamental indicator for residential property prices. |
| Keywords: | Double Imputation; Hedonic regression; Residential Property Price Index |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_20&r=ure |
| By: | Kemeny, Tom (Queen Mary, University of London); Nathan, Max (University of Birmingham); O'Brien, Dave (University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | Using high-quality administrative microdata spanning 2011-2013, this paper develops new routines to compare creative economies using the creative trident framework, and applies them to the UK and US national and regional contexts. We find the UK creative economy is larger in workforce shares, and grows faster over the study period; the US' is absolutely larger, and is distributed more evenly across industries. Regional results are shaped by deeper differences in national urban systems. The paper highlights possibilities for widely varying national configurations of creative economies, considers potential mechanisms driving differentiation, and reflects on the usefulness of the creative trident approach. |
| Keywords: | creative industries, creative trident, cities, labour markets, occupations, cross-country analysis |
| JEL: | P50 R12 R58 L80 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11740&r=ure |
| By: | Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel; Pasidis, Ilias; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of highway and railroad improvements on the suburbanization of population in Europe's cities focusing on the role of their historic amenities. Using the variation in the origins and the endowments of these historic amenities in the centers of Europe's cities, our results suggest that the effect of transportation networks on suburbanization was significantly lower in cities with historic amenities. Specifically, cities of Roman, Medieval or Renaissance-Baroque origins that maintained their historical heritage were more resilient to suburbanization caused by highway construction. |
| Keywords: | Architecture; European cities; Historic amenities; suburbanization; Transportation |
| JEL: | O4 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13129&r=ure |
| By: | Chenarides, Lauren; Jaenicke, Edward C.; Li, Jing |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2017–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258270&r=ure |
| By: | Xiaoqing Zhou (Bank of Canada) |
| Abstract: | The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption. I rationalize this empirical finding using a calibrated two-goods, multiple-assets, heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with borrowing frictions. The model replicates key features of the household-level and aggregate data. The model offers an alternative explanation of the consumption boom-bust cycle. This cycle is caused by large fluctuations in the number of borrowers and hence in total home equity borrowing, even though the fraction of borrowed funds spent on consumption is small. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:795&r=ure |
| By: | Vlad-Andrei Porumb; Costin Ciora; Gunther Maier; Ion Anghel |
| Abstract: | In this paper we draw on a proprietary database to analyze if the price premium of green certification in the EU depends on the location of buildings. Specifically, we focus on Finland, France and Germany, countries with extensive information regarding green buildings transactions during the 2010 to 2015 period. Considering the increasing demand for certification, we expect that sale prices for green buildings are higher relative to non-green buildings. We first assess if green certification is associated with a price premium in the analyzed countries. Second, we assess the effect that the location of green buildings has on the price premium. Our findings suggest that (i) buildings with green certification have a 19 percent higher price relative to non-certificated buildings and (ii) in cities of under 500 000 people, the price premium increases with the distance from the city center. Our results are robust to a series of robustness checks. We contribute to the rising literature on green buildings as the only study to assess the price impact of green certification in European countries. |
| Keywords: | EU; Green Buildings; Location; Price Premium |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_208&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Avvisati (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Research studies indicate that experienced teachers are more effective, but also suggest multiple explanations why this might be the case – whether because teachers gain valuable skills on the job and through formal professional development opportunities, or because the least effective teachers tend to quit teaching earlier, while more effective teachers remain in the profession. Each of these possible reasons has distinct implications for policy: from increasing hiring standards, improving teacher training and raising the attractiveness of the teaching profession, to ensuring that novice teachers receive the necessary support to quickly learn the tools of the trade and taking measures to prevent good teachers from dropping out of the profession. |
| Date: | 2018–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:88-en&r=ure |
| By: | Ole Jakob Sønstebø |
| Abstract: | Auctions have been used as a pricing mechanism for a wide range of goods over thousands of years. In contrast to common practice in most of the world, auctions also have a central place in the Norwegian real estate market, even for non-distressed properties and in non-boom markets. However, there exists little empirical evidence for optimal bidding strategies from real estate auctions. By using unique bidding journal data from 2280 dwellings sold in the Trondheim region, this paper compares price premiums for two distinct bidding strategies – placing a low or a high opening bid. Results indicate that, on average, placing a low opening bid yields the lower price premium. Furthermore, while a higher number of bidders increases the price premium, this paper finds evidence that signaling and intimidation in the form of placing a high opening bid has a negative impact on the number of bidders compared to placing a low opening bid. However, results show that the strategy fails in reducing the number of bidders more than a medium sized opening bid does. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; English auctions; Real estate auctions |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_231&r=ure |
| By: | Zhang, Yanhong |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Agribusiness, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258547&r=ure |
| By: | Eamonn D’Arcy; William Hardin; Michael White; Bob Martens |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_111&r=ure |
| By: | Pablo Fraser |
| Abstract: | The teacher workforce could be better prepared to cater to the learning needs of special needs students. The low percentage of teachers reporting a positive impact from their professional development signals that there is more to be done regarding the quality of the training offered in special needs education. Also, allocating more experienced and trained teachers to high-need classrooms, and providing continuous support to teachers and schools, can improve the quality of learning experiences of special needs students. This is important to ensure equal learning opportunities for all children and to create the conditions necessary for students with special needs to succeed. |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:23-en&r=ure |
| By: | Italo Colantone; Alessia Matano; Paolo Naticchioni |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of new imported inputs on wage dynamics, on the skill-composition of the labor force, on worker mobility, and on the efficiency of matching between firms and workers. We employ matched employer-employee data for Italy, over 1995-2007. We complement these data with information on the arrival of new imported inputs at the industry level. We find new imported inputs to have a positive effect on average wage growth at the firm level. This effect is driven by two factors: (1) an increase in the white-collar/blue-collar ratio; and (2) an increase in the average wage growth of blue-collar workers, while the wage growth of white collars is not significantly affected. The individual-level analysis reveals that the increase in the average wage of blue collars is driven by the displacement of the lowest paid workers, while continuously employed individuals are not affected. We estimate the unobserved skills of workers following Abowd et al. (1999). We find evidence that new imported inputs lead to a positive selection of higher-skilled workers, and to an improvement in positive assortative matching between firms and workers. |
| Keywords: | New imported inputs, wages, matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp1877&r=ure |
| By: | Csonka, Arnold; Fertő, Imre |
| Abstract: | The research described in this paper analyses agglomeration effects and spatial externalities in the Hungarian hog sector between 2000 and 2010. We apply a spatial lag – spatial error regression model to capture horizontal and vertical spillover effects and to understand the environmental restrictions that determine the location of pork production at the municipality level. Due to the dual nature of the structure of the Hungarian pork industry, we investigate agglomeration effects for individual and corporate farms separately. Results indicate that pork production by these farm groups is affected by different factors in different ways. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2017–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae17:261418&r=ure |
| By: | Lindsay, Amanda R.; Sanchirico, James N.; Taylor, J. Edward |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258444&r=ure |
| By: | Angelika Kallakmaa-Kapsta |
| Abstract: | Ten years after housing boom in Estonia the housing market has been restored. Comparing to 1997 the average notarized purchase-sale price has raised 2.3 times by 2016. It is again the question about the price level. One problem in housing market is concern about affordability issues, but there is also another aspect, that has not been paid enough attention. The proportion of older people is growing. According to the Statistics Estonia share of persons at pension age (65 years and older) has been grown from 12 % of population in early 90s to 19 % in 2017. People live increasingly longer and it is to be expected that the number and share of older people increases. The availability of comfort characteristics in the dwellings inhabited by households has improved significantly. During the lifetime the living space per person generally increases, but people may lose some of their functional abilities which may create a need for a different type of dwelling.This article seeks answers how to define the impact of an ageing population to the housing market in Estonia. |
| Keywords: | ageing; Estonia; Housing Market; Housing Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_219&r=ure |
| By: | Iris Behr |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_101&r=ure |
| By: | Ferrara, Andreas (Department of Economics and CAGE University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the unprecedented socioeconomic rise of African Americans at mid-century is causally related to the labor shortages induced by WWII. Results from combining novel military and Census data in a di erence-in-differences setting show that counties with an average casualty rate among semi-skilled whites experienced a 13 to 16% increase in the share of blacks in semi-skilled jobs. The casualty rate also has a significant reduced form effect on cross-state migration, wages, home ownership, house value, and education for blacks. Using survey data from 1961, IV regression results indicate that the economic upgrade, which is instrumented with the semi-skilled white casualty rate, is also associated with an increase in social status. Both black and white individuals living in treated counties are more likely to have an interracial friendship, live in mixed-race neighborhoods, and to have reduced preferences for segregation |
| Keywords: | African-Americans ; Inequality ; Race-Relations ; World War II JEL Classification: J15 ; J24 ; N42 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:387&r=ure |
| By: | Hossein Hassani (The Statistical Research Centre, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK); Mohammad Reza Yeganegi (Department of Statistics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the potential role of growth in inequality for forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom (UK). In our forecasting exercise, we use linear and nonlinear models, as well as, measures of absolute and relative consumption and income inequalities at quarterly frequency over the period of 1975 to 2016. Our results indicate that, while nonlinearity in the data generating process of real housing returns is important, growth in inequality does not necessarily carry important information in forecasting the future path of housing prices in the UK. |
| Keywords: | Income and Consumption Inequalities, Real Housing Returns, Forecasting, Linear and Nonlinear Models, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201859&r=ure |
| By: | Sandra Eickmeier; Benedikt Kolb; Esteban Prieto |
| Abstract: | Bank capital regulations are intended to enhance financial stability in the long run, but may, in the meanwhile, involve costs for the real economy. To examine these costs we propose a narrative index of aggregate tightenings in regulatory US bank capital requirements from 1979 to 2008. Anticipation effects are explicitly taken into account and found to matter. In response to a tightening in capital requirements, banks temporarily reduce business and real estate lending, which temporarily lowers investment, consumption, housing activity and production. A decline in financial and macroeconomic risk helps sustain spending in the medium run. Monetary policy also cushions negative effects of capital requirement tightenings on the economy. |
| Keywords: | Narrative Approach, Bank Capital Requirements, Local Projections |
| JEL: | G28 G18 C32 E44 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-42&r=ure |
| By: | Stefania-Cristina Curea; Costin Ciora; Irina-Daniela Cismasu; Ion Anghel |
| Abstract: | Sustainable development represents an important goal for emerging economies. The main engine for this development is innovation, which is generated by human capital accumulation. The purpose of this paper is to explore how human capital is affecting real estate, both residential and office. Our hypothesis is that there are structural changes in how current real estate buildings are being developed in order to be correlated with current expectations and needs from the new generation of employees. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_283&r=ure |
| By: | Ashwini Tiwari (University of Houston-Downtown) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this interpretive research was to understand the perspectives and beliefs of pre-service teachers enrolled at one of the public state universities in Texas, USA toward including students with disabilities in regular education classrooms. Employing hermeneutic phenomenology as methodological framework, this study used 20 semi-structured interviews and 5 focus groups as data sources. Initial data analysis was done using NVivo software. Themes were created based on the initial data analysis. This study revealed that teachers viewed inclusive education practices as pedagogically challenging. However, teacher candidates who chose to work with people with disabilities as their service learning assignment have more favorable attitudes towards students with disabilities. This paper will discuss the implications for service learning component for pre-service general education teachers. Furthermore, this paper will offer suggestions for teacher preparation programs to prepare teacher candidates in ways that make full participation of students with disabilities in regular education classrooms a reality. |
| Keywords: | Pre-service teachers, Inclusion, Special Education, Teacher Preparation Program |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208397&r=ure |
| By: | Jean Flemming (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | I study the interaction between commuting and employment in the data and within a spatial model of on-the-job search. I document the link between commuting time, job-to-job transitions, and earnings empirically. The theoretical model features a city in which individuals must commute in order to work, explicitly taking into account the distributions across both space and productivity. Costly commuting causes workers to reject otherwise good matches, resulting in a higher degree of productivity mismatch between workers and firms. The rate of job-to-job transitions and wage gains within and between jobs depend crucially on the spatial elements of the model. I use the model to study how commuting costs affect unemployment, future wage growth, and aggregate output. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:100&r=ure |
| By: | Elton Dusha (University of Chile); Alexandre Janiak (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile) |
| Abstract: | We build a consumption asset pricing model with search frictions on the market for assets and idiosyncratic income shocks. Search is directed and a consumption-leisure decision drives the price-liquidity tradeoff: if consumption is marginally more desirable than leisure, a seller would be willing to wait longer for a higher price. Our model is consistent with two characteristics of the housing market, where search frictions are particularly important: i) procyclical liquidity (i.e. countercyclical time to sell) and ii) prices more sensitive to demand shocks. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:524&r=ure |
| By: | ARNOLD, Florian; SÖRENSEN, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | The Location Routing Problem (LRP) unites two important challenges in the design of distribution systems. On the one hand, the delivery of goods to customers needs to be planned as e?ffectively as possible, and on the other hand, the location of depots from where these deliveries are executed has to be determined carefully. In the last years many heuristic approaches have been proposed to tackle LRPs. Usually, however, the computation of excellent solutions comes at the cost of an intricate algorithmic design. In this paper we introduce an effi cient heuristic for LRPs that is almost entirely based on a heuristic to solve routing problems. We estimate an upper bound for the number of open depots, and iteratively apply the routing heuristic on each remaining con?guration of open locations. Despite its simple design, the heuristic competes with the best results in literature, and can also be readily adapted to solve problems of very large scale. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle routing problem, Heuristics, Location routing |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2018010&r=ure |
| By: | Moritz Drechsel-Grau (University of Mannheim); Fabian Greimel (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the prevailing view that unequal growth combined with social comparisons have driven the boom of US household debt in the decades before the Great Recession. Thereby, non-rich households try to keep up with the rising living standards of the rich. We first develop a tractable infinite-horizon consumption network model in order to illustrate the mechanism analytically. We then introduce social comparisons into a heterogeneous agents macroeconomic model with housing and heterogeneous income profiles for a quantitative analysis. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:1032&r=ure |
| By: | Kim, Man-Keun; Jakus, Paul M. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258437&r=ure |
| By: | Michael Carlos Best; James Cloyne; Ethan Ilzetzki; Henrik Kleven |
| Abstract: | Using a novel source of quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, we develop a new approach to estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution (EIS). In the UK, the mortgage interest rate features discrete jumps – notches – at thresholds for the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. These notches generate large bunching below the critical LTV thresholds and missing mass above them. We develop a dynamic model that links these empirical moments to the underlying structural EIS. The average EIS is small, around 0.1, and quite homogeneous in the population. This finding is robust to structural assumptions and can allow for uncertainty, a wide range of risk preferences, portfolio reallocation, liquidity constraints, present bias, and optimization frictions. Our findings have implications for the numerous calibration studies that rely on larger values of the EIS. |
| JEL: | D1 D14 E2 E21 E4 E43 H3 H31 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24948&r=ure |
| By: | Dan W. French; Gevorg Sargsyan |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_107&r=ure |
| By: | Aryal, Giri; Mann, John; Loveridge, Scott; Joshi, Satish |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2017–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258289&r=ure |
| By: | Sieracki; Karen |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_112&r=ure |
| By: | Giuseppe Arbia (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Department of Statistical Science); Anna Gloria Billé (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Faculty of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | Modeling individual choices is one of the main aim in microeconometrics. Discrete choice models have been widely used to describe economic agents' utility functions, and most of them play a paramount role in applied health economics. On the other hand, spatial econometrics collects a series of econometric tools which are particularly useful when we deal with spatially-distributed data sets. It has been demonstrated that accounting for spatial dependence can avoid inconsistency problems of the commonly used estimators. However, the complex structure of spatial dependence in most of the nonlinear models still precludes a large diffusion of these spatial techniques. The purpose of this paper is then twofold. The former is to review the main methodological problems and their different solutions in spatial discrete choice modeling as they have appeared in the econometric literature. The latter is to review their applications to health issues, especially in the last few years, by highlighting at least two main reasons why spatial discrete neighboring effects should be considered and then suggesting possible future lines of the development of this emerging field. |
| Keywords: | Discrete Choice Modeling, Health Economics, Spatial Econometrics |
| JEL: | C31 C35 C51 I10 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps54&r=ure |
| By: | Hiona Balfoussia (Bank of Greece); Harris Dellas (University of Bern, CEPR); Dimitris Papageorgiou (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio instrument in a DSGE model with a rich set of financial frictions (Clerc et al., 2015). We find that a binding LTV ratio limit in the mortgage market leads to lower credit and default rates in that market as well as lower levels of investment and output, while leaving other sectors and agents largely unaffected. Interestingly, when the level of capital requirements is in the neighborhood of its optimal value, implementing an LTV ratio cap has a negative impact on welfare, even if it leads to greater macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, the availability of the LTV ratio instrument does not impact on the optimal level of capital requirements. It seems that once capital requirements have been optimally deployed to tame banks’ appetite for excessive risk, the use of the LTV ratio could prove counterproductive from a welfare point of view. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Policy; General Equilibrium; Greece |
| JEL: | E3 E44 G01 G21 O52 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:248&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Adamecz-Volgyi (Budapest Institute); Agota Scharle (Budapest Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects that an increase in compulsory school-leaving (CSL) age has on the teenage fertility (both motherhood and pregnancy) of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy based on exact date of birth. Increasing the CSL age from age 16 to 18 decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 6.8 percentage points. The higher CSL age delayed first birth-giving by two years. We exploit a unique database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births, and contains information on the time conception precise to the week.We propose that the impact of the legislative change can be explained by the incapacitation effect of education: the higher CSL age decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks. |
| Keywords: | education, compulsory school leaving age, teenage fertility, disadvantaged ethnic minorities, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J13 C21 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:bworkp:1802&r=ure |
| By: | Bratsberg, Bernt (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Hernaes, Øystein (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Markussen, Simen (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Raaum, Oddbjørn (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Røed, Knut (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact on youth crime of a welfare reform that tightened activation requirements for social assistance clients. The evaluation strategy exploits administrative individual data in combination with geographically differentiated implementation of the reform. We find that the reform reduced crime among teenage boys from economically disadvantaged families. Stronger reform effects on weekday versus weekend crime, reduced school dropout, and favorable long-run outcomes in terms of crime and educational attainment, point to both incapacitation and human capital accumulation as key mechanisms. Despite lowered social assistance take-up we uncover no indication that loss of income support pushed youth into crime. |
| Keywords: | social assistance, youth crime, activation |
| JEL: | H55 I29 I38 J18 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11719&r=ure |
| By: | Bob Martens |
| Abstract: | The number of published entities has been rapidly growing in the past years. In the framework of this contribution a demonstration will be delivered on how to structure a search string in order to retrieve an adequate number of hits when investigating the wider area of "energy" within the context of real estate. The ERES Digital Library will be highlighted in this regard, but also a large repository will be examined in detail. Finally, the results of data mining efforts within ERES submissions for the Annual Conference in the period 2012-2017 will be presented along with the concept of word pairs. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_103&r=ure |
| By: | Ostroumoff Charles |
| Abstract: | In this paper, using Brexit as an example of a market shock, I will demonstrate how property fund managers can navigate through such market turbulence using MSCI-IPD Property Futures to apply risk on / risk off and risk-adjusted trading strategies to mitigate the effect of falling capital values. In the analysis, a comparison will be made to the effectiveness of using such strategies using REIT's. |
| Keywords: | BREXIT; Investment; REITs; Risk Derivatives |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_282&r=ure |
| By: | Will Dobbie; Andres Liberman; Daniel Paravisini; Vikram Pathania |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for bias in consumer lending decisions using administrative data from a high-cost lender in the United Kingdom. We motivate our analysis using a simple model of bias in lending, which predicts that profits should be identical for loan applicants from different groups at the margin if loan examiners are unbiased. We identify the profitability of marginal loan applicants by exploiting variation from the quasi-random assignment of loan examiners. We find significant bias against both immigrant and older loan applicants when using the firm's preferred measure of long-run profits. In contrast, there is no evidence of bias when using a short-run measure used to evaluate examiner performance, suggesting that the bias in our setting is due to the misalignment of firm and examiner incentives. We conclude by showing that a decision rule based on machine learning predictions of long-run profitability can simultaneously increase profits and eliminate bias. |
| JEL: | J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24953&r=ure |
| By: | Johansson, Per-Olov (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics); de Rus, Gines (University of Las Palmas de G.C., FEDEA and University Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how to evaluate a large project when there is a substitute. The new large project causes discrete price adjustments in the substitute market. For example, a new high-speed rail may shift the demand curve for flight tickets to the left and reduce their price, in turn shifting the demand curve for train tickets to the left. There are several different ways to handle this complication, and we hopefully provide some guidance how to proceed. In particular, we point at an approach that captures the general equilibrium effects of a considered project in its output market. In theory at least, this approach provides a simple short-cut in cost-benefit analysis of (infrastructure and other) projects that are so large that they have a noticeable impact on equilibrium prices in other markets. A similar shortcut for transport projects that affect time costs is also supplied. |
| Keywords: | Cost-bene fit analysis; large projects; substitutes; time costs |
| JEL: | D61 H43 R40 |
| Date: | 2018–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2018_007&r=ure |
| By: | Kumar, Rakesh Ranjan; Rajagopalan, Anjana; Singh, Sudershan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses economic mobility as an evaluating criteria in gauging the nature and extent of improvement in economic position of households having migrants in terms of remittances and extent of economic mobility. Using panel data from Kerala Migration Surveys, we estimate the quantum of improvement in standards of living of migrant households in Kerala through transition matrices and statistical and econometric techniques. |
| Keywords: | Economic mobility, Standard of Living, Migration |
| JEL: | J6 O1 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88606&r=ure |
| By: | Paloma Taltavull de La Paz |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_edu_113&r=ure |
| By: | Noray, Savannah; Janzen, Sarah A. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258539&r=ure |
| By: | Wrenn, Douglas H.; Klaiber, Allen; Newburn, David |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258578&r=ure |
| By: | Sun, Bixuan |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258427&r=ure |