nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒07‒23
fifty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Balkan, Binnur; Tok, Elif Ozcan; Torun, Huzeyfe; Tumen, Semih
  2. Recovering social networks from panel data: identification, simulations and an application By Áureo de Paula; Imran Rasul; Pedro CL Souza
  3. Are rising house prices really good for your brain? House value and cognitive functioning among older Europeans By Bénédicte H. Apouey; Isabelle Chort
  4. Private and Public Schools: A Spatial Analysis of Social Segregation in France By Pierre Courtioux; Tristan-Pierre Maury
  5. The Duration in the Market of New Housing in Mexico By Rodríguez-Zamora Carolina; Morales Ramírez Alejandro
  6. Geography, ties and knowledge flows: evidence from citations in mathematics By Head, Keith; Li, Yao Amber; Minondo, Asier
  7. Identifying Neighborhood Effects among Firms: Evidence from location lotteries of the Tokyo Tsukiji fish market By NAKAJIMA Kentaro; TESHIMA Kensuke
  8. In brief...The bedroom tax By Steve Gibbons; Maria Sanchez-Vidal; Olmo Silva
  9. Drivers of Student Performance: Evidence from Higher Secondary Public Schools in Delhi By Deepti Goel; Bidisha Barooah
  10. Does promoting homeownership always damage labour market performances? By Julie Beugnot; Olivier Charlot; Guy Lacroix
  11. The role of demand in land re-development By Carozzi, Felipe
  12. Macroeconomic Conditions and Child Schooling in Turkey By Gunes, Pinar; Ural Marchand, Beyza
  13. Torn Apart? The Impact of Manufacturing Employment Decline on Black and White Americans By Gould, Eric D
  14. Do housing allowances increase rents? Evidence from a discrete policy change By Dean Hyslop; David Rea
  15. Does Limiting Internet Use Among Adolescents Affect their Offline Social relationships? By Mora Villarrubia, Ricardo; Li, Yunrong
  16. Escaping Social Pressure: Fixed-Term Contracts in Multi-Establishment Firms By Andrea Bassanini; Eve Caroli; François Fontaine; Antoine Rebérioux
  17. The bedroom tax By Gibbons, Stephen; Sánchez-Vidal, Maria; Silva, Olmo
  18. Can HRM Improve Schools' Performance? By Alex Bryson; Lucy Stokes; David Wilkinson
  19. Growing Up in Ethnic Enclaves: Language Proficiency and Educational Attainment of Immigrant Children By Danzer, Alexander M.; Feuerbaum, Carsten; Piopiunik, Marc; Woessmann, Ludger
  20. Equilibrium in a dynamic model of congestion with large and small users By Robin Lindsey; André De Palma; Hugo Silva
  21. Buses, Houses or Cash? Socio-Economic, Spatial and Environmental Consequences of Reforming Public Transport Subsidies in Buenos Aires By Paolo Avner; Shomik Raj Mehndiratta; Vincent Viguie; Stéphane Hallegatte
  22. The value of data: an analysis of closed-urban-data-based and open-data-based business models By Bruno Carballa Smichowski
  23. Are Schools Different? Wellbeing and Commitment Among Staff in Schools and Elsewhere By Alex Bryson; Lucy Stokes; David Wilkinson
  24. Who benefits from universal child care? Estimating marginal returns to early child care attendance By Cornelißen, Thomas; Dustmann, Christian; Raute, Anna; Schönberg, Uta
  25. Regional inequalities in PISA: the case of Italy and Spain By Ralph Hippe; Maciej Jakubowski; Luisa De Sousa Lobo Borges de Araujo
  26. Entrepreneurship Culture, Knowledge Spillovers, and the Growth of Regions By Michael, Stuetzer; David, Audretsch; Martin, Obschonka; Samuel, Gosling; Jason, Rentfrow; Jeff, Potter
  27. Secondary education and international labor mobility: Evidence from the free secondary education reform in the Philippines By Masuda, Kazuya; Sakai, Yoko
  28. Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference By Rodrigo Ad\~ao; Michal Koles\'ar; Eduardo Morales
  29. Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake By Vasco M. Carvalho; Makoto Nirei; Yukiko U. Saito; Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
  30. Urban Fortunes and Skeleton Cityscapes: Real Estate and Late Urbanization in Kigali and Addis Ababa By Goodfellow, Tom
  31. Brain drain or brain gain? investigating the diaspora’s effect on the economy and real estate bubble: new evidence from Kenya based on ARDL analysis By Bamahriz, Omar; Masih, Mansur
  32. Decentralization of public expenditure and growth in Italy: Does the composition matter? By Floriana Cerniglia - Riccarda Longaretti - Alessandra Michelangeli
  33. Diversity and Growth By Gradstein, Mark; Justman, Moshe
  34. Roadways, Input Sourcing, and Patterns of Specialization By Esteban Jaimovich
  35. The Design of IEP Sites: Aiming for an Inclusive Economic Participation of Urban Citizens in Flanders By Nathalie VALLET; Simon DE NYS-KETELS; Michelle BYLEMANS
  36. Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: Evidence from five Japanese cities By Masako Ikefuji; Roger J. A. Laeven; Jan R. Magnus; Yuan Yue
  37. Crime and Durable Goods By Sebastian Galiani; Laura Jaitman; Federico Weinschelbaum
  38. Gravity and Migration before Railways: Evidence from Parisian Prostitutes and Revolutionaries By Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda
  39. Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve. Empirical Evidence from Austria By Stefan Schiman
  40. GVCs and the Endogenous Geography of RTAs By Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Santoni
  41. Merging county administrations: Cross-national evidence of fiscal and political effects By Blesse, Sebastian; Roesel, Felix
  42. The generation gap in direct democracy By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Maennig, Wolfgang; Mueller, Steffen Q.
  43. Data on the annual aggregated income taxes of the Italian municipalities over the quinquennium 2007-2011 By Marcel Ausloos; Roy Cerqueti; Tariq A. Mir
  44. Where’s the Money Going? The Importance of Accounting for Rent Payments in Measuring a Household's Financial Obligations By Andrew C. Chang; Joanne W. Hsu; Sarah Pack; Michael G. Palumbo
  45. Institutions and geography: A "two sides of the same coin" story of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Laté Ayao Lawson; Phu Nguyen-Van
  46. High Spending Growth Rates For Key Diseases In 2000-14 Were Driven By Technology And Demographic Factors By Abe Dunn; Bryn Whitmire; Andrea Batch; Lasanthi Fernando; Lindsey Rittmueller
  47. “Does inter-municipal cooperation really reduce delivery costs? An empirical evaluation of the role of scale economies, transaction costs, and governance arrangements” By Germà Bel; Marianna Sebo
  48. Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment. By Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon D.; Løken, Katrine V.; Mogstad, Magne
  49. Promoting equality: An interregional perspective By -
  50. The Impact of Local Income Inequality on Public Goods and Taxation: Evidence from French Municipalities By Brice Fabre
  51. The Challenge for Regional Development By Geoffrey J.D. Hewings
  52. Coming apart? Cultural distances in the United States over time By Bertrand, Marianne; Kamenica, Emir
  53. Have R&D spillovers changed? By Bloom, Nick; Lucking, Brian; Van Reenen, John
  54. Unravelling Airbnb Predicting Price for New Listing By Paridhi Choudhary; Aniket Jain; Rahul Baijal
  55. Weather, labor reallocation and industrial production: evidence from India By Colmer, Jonathan

  1. By: Balkan, Binnur (Central Bank of Turkey); Tok, Elif Ozcan (Central Bank of Turkey); Torun, Huzeyfe (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (TED University)
    Abstract: The massive inflow of Syrian refugees is argued to drastically affect various social and economic outcomes in the hosting countries and regions. In this paper, we use micro-level data to investigate whether the Syrian refugee inflows have affected the market for housing rentals in Turkey. The unexpected arrival of a large number of refugees due to civil conflict in Syria is used to construct a quasi-experimental design. Since the construction of new housing units takes a long time, refugee inflow resembles a positive demand shock to the sector. We find that the refugee inflows have led to an increase in the rents of higher-quality housing units, while there is no statistically significant effect in the rents of lower-quality units. This finding supports a residential segregation story, which suggests that the refugee wave has increased the demand for native-dominant neighborhoods with better amenities especially among natives. We argue that negative attitudes towards refugees – potentially due to refugee-native conflict along several dimensions – may be generating this result.
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, immigration, housing rents, quasi-experimental design, Turkey
    JEL: C21 F22 R21 R23
    Date: 2018–06
  2. By: Áureo de Paula (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Imran Rasul (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London and IFS); Pedro CL Souza (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: It is almost self-evident that social interactions can determine economic behavior and outcomes. Yet, information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present methods to recover information on the entire structure of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between individuals. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are all globally identified. We describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the model based on the Adaptive Elastic Net GMM method. We showcase our method in Monte Carlo simulations using two stylized and two real world network structures. Finally, we employ our method to study tax competition across US states. We find the identified network structure of tax competition differs markedly from the common assumption of tax competition between geographically neighboring states: the majority of geographic neighboring states (63%) are found not to be relevant for tax setting. We analyze the identified social interactions matrix to provide novel insights into the longstanding debate on the relative roles of factor mobility and yardstick competition in driving tax setting behavior across states. Most broadly, our method shows how the analysis of social interactions can be usefully extended to economic realms where no network data exists.
    JEL: C18 C31 D85 H71
    Date: 2018–03–02
  3. By: Bénédicte H. Apouey (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Isabelle Chort (UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)
    Abstract: This study examines how house prices influence cognitive functioning for individuals aged 50+ in Europe. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE) between 2004 and 2015, we compute the median house price for each region-year, using individual self-reported house values. Cognitive scores capture either fluid intelligence (numeracy, memory) or a mix of fluid and crystallized intelligences (verbal fluency). Compared with the previous literature, we allow housing market fluctuations to have different effects during episodes of price increases and decreases, and we study owners with a mortgage, owners without a mortgage, and tenants separately. Findings indicate that house price booms do not systematically improve cognitive health outcomes: for outright owners and tenants, a rise in prices correlates with a decrease in fluid intelligence. For outright owners, this result is partly explained by increased alcohol consumption, and is also related to stronger feelings of guilt and irritability, consistent with aversion to advantageous inequality. Findings also show asymmetry in the effects of price booms and busts: indeed, for mortgaged owners, both price increase and decrease episodes have a positive impact on cognitive outcomes. We argue that during the crisis the beneficial impact of price busts may have been driven by the decline in interest rates, which reduced the debt burden of households with a variable rate mortgage.
    Keywords: House prices,Wealth,Cognitive functioning,Health,Older Europeans,Europe,SHARE
    Date: 2018–06
  4. By: Pierre Courtioux (EDHEC Business School et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Tristan-Pierre Maury (EDHEC Business School)
    Abstract: This article provides a geographical and urban analysis of the contribution of differences in enrollment between the public and private sectors to social segregation in French middle schools. Using the mutual information index, we show that the contribution of public/private divergences is higher in middle-sized urban areas and center municipalities. These geographical areas, however, are not those where social segregation is the highest, nor those where the private sector is commonly regarded as the main cause of segregation. Moreover, the gaps between the public and the private sectors are stronger at the local level. This confirms the idea that the private sector is indeed a tool for circumventing France's School Map (la carte scolaire) for allocating places to pupils and that private schools create additional social differences the smaller spatial scale
    Keywords: segregation; secondary education; economic geography
    JEL: R1 I2
    Date: 2018–05
  5. By: Rodríguez-Zamora Carolina; Morales Ramírez Alejandro
    Abstract: In this article we study the market duration of new housing built by developers in Mexico between 2013 and 2015. In particular, this document discusses whether the physical characteristics of housing, state of location, date put on sale, time of construction, the initial price and the size of the developer have any effect on the duration of new houses in the market. We use a survival analysis Cox model. The most important results indicate that the probability of a new house being sold between t and t+1 (hazard rate) decreases with time and, in general, is lower for units of larger size, those that took much time on the construction process, and those constructed by small developers.
    Keywords: Duration;housing;time-on-the-market;Mexico
    JEL: R21 R31 C41
    Date: 2018–06
  6. By: Head, Keith; Li, Yao Amber; Minondo, Asier
    Abstract: Using data on academic citations, career and educational histories of mathematicians, and disaggregated distance data for the world's top 1000 math departments, we study how geography and ties affect knowledge flows among scholars. The ties we consider are co-authorship, past colocation, advisor-mediated relationships, and alma mater relationships (holding a Ph.D. from the institution where another scholar is affiliated). Logit regressions using fixed effects that control for subject similarity, article quality, and temporal lags, show linkages are strongly associated with citation. Controlling for ties generally halves the negative impact of geographic barriers on citations. Ties matter more for less prominent and more recent papers and show no decline in importance in recent years. The impact of distance - controlling for ties - has fallen and is statistically insignificant after 2004.
    Keywords: knowledge diffusion; distance; borders; networks; academic genealogy
    JEL: F1 O3 R1
    Date: 2018–06–01
  7. By: NAKAJIMA Kentaro; TESHIMA Kensuke
    Abstract: The theories of retail cluster formation suggest that stores perform better when surrounded by other stores with diverse complementary products because these stores attract consumers with love of variety preference. We analyze the impact of the diversity of neighboring stores among intermediate wholesalers located in the Tokyo Tsukiji fish market by exploiting a unique feature of their shop locations within the market in which their locations are determined every 4-10 years by relocation lotteries, generating exogenous variation in the diversity of neighboring stores. First, we confirm that these intermediate wholesalers' shop locations are indeed randomly distributed. Then, we find that the diversity of the types of neighboring firms positively affect the performance of small-sized and specialized firms. We find no effect of the characteristics of close neighbors who do not face the same corridor and thus do not share the flow of shoppers. This provides evidence that our results are not due to factors other than shopping behavior, such as technology spillovers. Finally, to illustrate the general applicability of the mechanism we find, we use the Census of Commerce covering all of the retailers in Tokyo to show that smaller and more specialized retailers are more likely to be located together while larger and standardized ones are isolated. Overall, our analysis shows that the complementarity of products between specialized diverse stores is an important factor behind urban agglomeration.
    Date: 2018–07
  8. By: Steve Gibbons; Maria Sanchez-Vidal; Olmo Silva
    Abstract: The 'bedroom tax' - a UK government policy introduced in 2013 that cut housing benefits for social tenants deemed to have a 'spare' bedroom - saved some public money, according to research by Steve Gibbons and colleagues. But the policy added further strain to the finances of people who were already disadvantaged. Their study, which examines whether the policy achieved its objectives and how the targeted families reacted, finds that the burden of the bedroom tax fell on social tenants who were unwilling or unable to move.
    Keywords: social housing, social rents, bedroom tax, housing benefits
    JEL: H55 H2 R21 R28
    Date: 2018–07
  9. By: Deepti Goel (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Bidisha Barooah (Evaluation specialist at International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie))
    Abstract: We examine the role of teachers and students in the formation of test scores at the higher secondary level (grade 12) in public schools in Delhi, India. Using the value added approach, we find substantial variation in teacher and student quality within schools over the period spanning grades 11 and 12, being taught by a one standard deviation better than average teacher raises test scores by 0.373 standard deviation and being a one standard deviation better than average student raises it by 0.799 standard deviation. Being permanent (tenured) positively predicts teacher effectiveness, while educational qualifications, training, experience and personality traits have no predictive power. Relative to families where only fathers earn, those where both parents earn negatively predict student effectiveness, while religion, caste and parents’ education have no predictive power.
    Keywords: Value added, Test scores, Teacher quality, Student quality, India
    JEL: I20 I23
    Date: 2018–07
  10. By: Julie Beugnot; Olivier Charlot; Guy Lacroix
    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the link between homeownership and various aggregate and individual labour market outcomes. Our aim is to investigate the likely consequences of public policies that promote homeownership. To this end, we develop a circular firm-worker matching model with Nash-bargained wage setting and free market entry. Homeowners are assumed to be less mobile than tenants and to bear higher mobility costs. Our numerical exercises show that tenants usually have lower unemployment rates and lower wage rates than homeowners. Importantly, workers’ performances do not necessarily improve following an increase in the proportion of homeowners. The latter crucially depends on the relative utility enjoyed by homeowners and tenants when unemployed. In the aggregate, nevertheless, we find that the unemployment rate generally increases following an increase in the proportion of homeowners. Yet, the link between the two can be reversed if the homeowners’ utility is lower than that of tenants when unemployed. Our model thus identifies a number of conditions under which Oswald’s conjecture is likely to hold or not. Thus, our results do not necessarily support the view that policies fostering homeownership are adequate public policies given their potentially negative effect on the labour market.
    Keywords: Stochastic job matching, Homeownership, Unemployment, Mobility
    JEL: H31 J61 J64 R23
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Carozzi, Felipe
    Abstract: Several governments throughout the world apply policies aimed to re-mediate and recover vacant or idle land for other uses. This paper provides estimates of the price sensitivity of redevelopment, a crucial parameter for the success of these policies. My cross-sectional estimates measure how prices affect long-run conversion of unused or underused previously developed land in England. In order to solve the classical problem in the estimation of supply elasticities from market outcomes, I exploit school quality information and school admission boundaries to obtain a demand-shifter that is orthogonal to re-development costs. Estimation is conducted using a boundary discontinuity design based on this instrument. Results show that the probability of re-development is effectively sensitive to housing prices. Estimates indicate that a 1% increase in housing prices leads to a 0.07 percentage point reduction in the fraction of hectares containing brownfield land. Back-of-the envelope calculations using these estimates suggest that a large increase of 21% in prices across locations, or an equivalent subsidy, would be required to eliminate most of these vacant or underused land plots.
    Keywords: re-development; supply elasticity; brownfields
    JEL: R14 R31
    Date: 2018–05–01
  12. By: Gunes, Pinar (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on child schooling in Turkey using household labor force surveys from 2005-2013. We use variation in local labor demand as an instrumental variable, particularly regional industry composition and national industry employment growth rates. The results demonstrate that child schooling is pro-cyclical in Turkey, with the most acute effects among children with less educated parents and living in rural areas. Finally, as hypothesized, we find asymmetric effects on child schooling based on skill composition of economic growth. Higher unemployment among unskilled workers increases schooling, whereas higher unemployment among skilled workers decreases schooling.
    Keywords: Schooling; Unemployment; Business Cycles; Turkey
    JEL: J13 J24 O15
    Date: 2018–07–14
  13. By: Gould, Eric D
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of manufacturing employment decline on the socio-economic outcomes within and between black and white Americans from 1960 to 2010. Exploiting variation across cities and over time, the analysis shows that manufacturing decline negatively impacted blacks (men, women, and children) in terms of their wages, employment, marriage rates, house values, poverty rates, death rates, single parenthood, teen motherhood, child poverty, and child mortality. In addition, the decline in manufacturing increased inequality within the black community in terms of overall wages and the gaps between education groups in wages, employment, and marriage rates. Many of the same patterns are found for whites, but to a lesser degree leading to larger gaps between whites and blacks in wages, marriage patterns, poverty, single-parenthood, and death rates. The results are robust to the inclusion or exclusion of several control variables, and the use of a "shift-share" instrument for the local manufacturing employment share. Overall, the decline in manufacturing is reducing socio-economic conditions in general while increasing inequality within and between racial groups which is consistent with a stronger general equilibrium effect of the loss of highly-paid, lower-skilled jobs on the less-educated segments of the population.
    Date: 2018–06
  14. By: Dean Hyslop (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David Rea (Ministry of Social Development)
    Abstract: A major concern with demand side housing subsidies to low-income tenants is the extent to which they may be captured by landlords in the form of higher rents. The Accommodation Supplement (AS) benefit is the largest housing subsidy policy in New Zealand. A 2005 policy change created a new AS-area around central Auckland that resulted in an increase in AS entitlement for residents within the area compared to those outside. In this paper we exploit the natural experiment created by this policy change to evaluate whether the increase in accommodation support for recipients in the new area led to relatively higher rents than paid by recipients outside the boundary. We use administrative data for a sample of AS recipients on either side of the new area boundary over the four-year period spanning the policy change. Our analysis shows that as a result of the policy change, recipients on the inside of the boundary received around $6.81 per week more in total accommodation support in the second year after the policy was implemented. We estimate that weekly rents increased on average about $2.44 more inside the boundary (36 percent of the increase in AS) and, as expected, the impacts were stronger at higher quantiles of the rent distribution. We also find that the rent increases were concentrated among families with children, and present some evidence that this reflected increased spending on housing (which may have reduced over-crowding), rather than a wider increase in rental prices.
    Keywords: Accommodation supplement, housing subsidy, rents
    JEL: H22 H53 R21
    Date: 2018–07
  15. By: Mora Villarrubia, Ricardo; Li, Yunrong
    Abstract: We use longitudinal individual data from a nationally representative sample of Chinese children aged 10 to 15 to investigate whether a partial ban on internet use affects offline social interactions among adolescents. We present both IV and mixed logit estimates and control for spillover effects and unobservable heterogeneity. Although online and offline relationships are strongly positively correlated, the existence of unobservable common tastes for social interactions at household level explains an important part of this correlation. We also find that (i) most children do reduce their offline social relationships when facing limits to their use of social networking sites; (ii) there are spillover effects in the sense that these negative effects increase with the size of the online local network; (iii) the negative effects are sizable and statistically significant for older children (aged 14 and 15); and (iv), for these older children, they occur even after discounting the network effect. To sum up, we find large negative effects on offline social relationships for older children even if the limits are imposed to all children simultaneously.
    Keywords: Online social relations; complementarity; unobservable common tastes
    JEL: J14 J13
    Date: 2018–07
  16. By: Andrea Bassanini (OECD - OECD - OECD); Eve Caroli (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); François Fontaine (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Antoine Rebérioux (LADYSS - Laboratoire dynamiques sociales et recomposition des espaces - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of local social pressure on the choice of employment contracts made by firms. Using linked employer-employee data, we show that secondary establishments located closer to headquarters have higher shares of fixed-term contracts in hiring than those located further away whenever firms' headquarters are located in selfish communities. In contrast, when firms' headquarters belong to unselfish communities, the impact of distance to headquarters on the share of fixed-term contracts turns out to be positive. We show that these findings can only be explained by local social pressure. When the local community at the firm's headquarters is selfish, i.e. cares about dismissals only when they take place at short distance, CEOs are under pressure to avoid dismissing workers close to headquarters. By adding to the adjustment costs associated with open-ended contracts, this creates an incentive for them to rely more on fixed-term contracts, in an attempt to escape social pressure when hiring workers close to headquarters.
    Date: 2018–03
  17. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Sánchez-Vidal, Maria; Silva, Olmo
    Abstract: Housing subsidies for low income households are a central pillar of many welfare systems, but an expensive one. This paper investigates the consequences of an unusual policy aimed at reducing the burden of these subsidies by rationing tenants’ use of space. Specifically, we study a policy introduced by the UK Government in 2013 which substantially cut housing benefits for tenants deemed to have a ‘spare’ bedroom – based on specific criteria related to household composition. Our study is the first to evaluate the impacts of the policy on its target group considering a range of outcomes. To do so, we use a difference-in-difference methodology that compares the observed behaviour of the treated households relative to a control group determined from the details of the policy rules. We find that – as expected – the treated group experienced losses to housing benefit and overall income. Although the policy was not successful in encouraging residential moves, it did incentivise people who moved to downsize – suggesting some success in terms of one of the policy goals, namely reducing ‘underoccupancy’ in the long run. We find no statistically significant effects on households’ food consumption, savings or employment outcomes, despite the associated income reductions. Finally, we find some evidence of a reduction in self-reported satisfaction though this effect is not precisely estimated.
    Keywords: social housing; social rents; bedroom tax; housing benefits
    JEL: H2 H55 R21
    Date: 2018–04–01
  18. By: Alex Bryson (University College London, National Institute of Social and Economic Research and Institute for the Study of Labor); Lucy Stokes (National Institute of Social and Economic Research); David Wilkinson (University College London, National Institute of Social and Economic Research)
    Abstract: Evidence on schools' performance is confined to comparisons across schools, usually based on value-added measures. We adopt an alternative approach comparing schools to observationally equivalent workplaces in the rest of the British economy using measures of workplace performance that are common across all workplaces. We focus on the role played by management practices in explaining differences in the performance of schools versus other workplaces, and performance across the schools' sector. We find intensive use of HRM practices is correlated with substantial improvement in workplace performance, both among schools and other workplaces. However, the types of practices that improve school performance are different from those that improve performance elsewhere in the economy. Furthermore, in contrast to the linear returns to HRM intensity in most workplaces, improvements in schools' performance are an increasing function of HRM intensity.
    Keywords: School performance; Human resource management; Matching; first differences
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2018–02–01
  19. By: Danzer, Alexander M. (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Feuerbaum, Carsten (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Piopiunik, Marc (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Woessmann, Ludger (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Does a high regional concentration of immigrants of the same ethnicity affect immigrant children’s acquisition of host-country language skills and educational attainment? We exploit the exogenous placement of guest workers from five ethnicities across German regions during the 1960s and 1970s in a model with region and ethnicity fixed effects. Our results indicate that exposure to a higher own-ethnic concentration impairs immigrant children’s host-country language proficiency and increases school dropout. A key mediating factor for this effect is parents’ lower speaking proficiency in the host-country language, whereas inter-ethnic contacts with natives and economic conditions do not play a role.
    Keywords: immigrant children, ethnic concentration, language, education, guest workers
    JEL: J15 I20 R23 J61
    Date: 2018–06
  20. By: Robin Lindsey (University of Alberta [Edmonton]); André De Palma (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hugo Silva (Instituto Superior Técnico - Technical University of Lisbon)
    Abstract: Individual users often control a significant share of total traffic flows. Examples include airlines, rail and maritime freight shippers, urban goods delivery companies and passenger transportation network companies. These users have an incentive to internalize the congestion delays their own vehicles impose on each other by adjusting the timing of their trips. We investigate simultaneous trip-timing decisions by large users and small users in a dynamic model of congestion. Unlike previous work, we allow for heterogeneity of trip-timing preferences and for the presence of small users such as individual commuters and fringe airlines. We derive the optimal fleet departure schedule for a large user as a best-response to the aggregate departure rate of other users. We show that when the vehicles in a large user's fleet have a sufficiently dispersed distribution of desired arrival times, there may exist a pure-strategy Nash-equilibrium (PSNE) in which the large user schedules vehicles when there is a queue. This resolves the problem of non-existence of a PSNE identified in Silva et al. (2017) for the case of symmetric large users. We also develop some examples to identify under what conditions a PSNE exists. The examples illustrate how self-internalization of congestion by a large user can affect the nature of equilibrium and the travel costs that it and other users incur.
    Keywords: departure-time decisions,bottleneck model,congestion,schedule delay costs,large users,user heterogeneity,existence of Nash equilibrium $
    Date: 2018–04–06
  21. By: Paolo Avner (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Shomik Raj Mehndiratta (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Vincent Viguie (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Stéphane Hallegatte (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank)
    Date: 2018–01–29
  22. By: Bruno Carballa Smichowski (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018–03–17
  23. By: Alex Bryson (University College London, National Institute of Social and Economic Research and Institute for the Study of Labor); Lucy Stokes (National Institute of Social and Economic Research); David Wilkinson (University College London, National Institute of Social and Economic Research)
    Abstract: Using nationally representative linked employer-employee data for Britain in 2004 and 2011 we find school staff are more satisfied and more contented with their jobs than "like" employees in other workplaces. The differentials are largely accounted for by the occupations school employees undertake and perceptions of job quality. School employees are also more committed to their organization than non-school employees, a difference that remains large and statistically significant having conditioned on job quality, human resource management practices (HRM), managerial style and other features of employees' working environment. Using panel data for workplaces and their employees observed in 2004 and 2011 we find increases in organizational commitment are linked to improvements in workplace performance in schools, but not in other workplaces.
    Keywords: schools; teachers; job satisfaction; job contentment; organizational commitment; school performance; human resource management; managerial style
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2018–04–01
  24. By: Cornelißen, Thomas; Dustmann, Christian; Raute, Anna; Schönberg, Uta
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care (preschool) program in Germany by exploiting the exogenous variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large staggered expansion across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. This pattern of reverse selection on gains is driven by unobserved family background characteristics: children from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to attend child care than children from advantaged backgrounds but have larger treatment effects because of their worse outcome when not enrolled in child care.
    Keywords: universal child care,child development,marginal treatment effects
    JEL: J13 J15 I28
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Ralph Hippe (European Commission - JRC); Maciej Jakubowski (University of Warsaw and Evidence Institute); Luisa De Sousa Lobo Borges de Araujo (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This technical brief analyses the regional distribution of skills in Italy and Spain. Educational attainment rates have frequently been used as an indicator of regional educational development in EU Member States (MS). These rates indicate significant regional disparities in education within countries. However, recent evidence shows that the quality of education, as measured by the level of specific skills, is more important than the number of years one spends in school, in particular when considering the relationship between the cognitive (and non-cognitive) skills and economic growth. International large scale assessments (ILSA) of student performance measure these cognitive skills in key areas. OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) provides a very useful and important source of information of students' performance in key cognitive skills. When analysing PISA data, researchers and commentators often focus on cross-country comparisons. However, vast within-country differences exist, also in terms of educational attainment and PISA test scores. A focus on country averages alone would hence provide only a partial view of the status of education within countries. However, the possibility of exploring within-country differences with PISA data is limited to only a few countries. In this report we focus on regional inequalities in cognitive skills (as measured by PISA test scores) in Italy and Spain, using regional PISA data from the most recent 2015 wave, and we analyse the factors that are associated with these inequalities. In order to insure full comparability between the two countries we define regions at the level of NUTS1 (macro-region), following Eurostat’s official NUTS 2013 classification. We investigate regional inequalities by using descriptive statistics, by running a range of OLS regression models that allow us to analyse the associations between PISA 2015 science scores and the explanatory variables within regions and finally by using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method to specify the factors that are related to within-country differences. The results show that there are significant regional differences in PISA scores within both MS. There are several factors that are associated with regional differences within Italy and Spain. The factors most consistently positively associated with regional science achievement are teacher-directed teaching and epistemological beliefs, while grade repetition and truancy are significantly negatively related with achievement. Still, there is also a range of other relevant factors varying between and within both MS. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition also shows that variables such as the socio-economic background, the students’ expected occupation, learning outside school time, truancy, immigrant status and grade repetition matter for within-country differences. Our results suggest that policy makers should focus on finding solutions to limit truancy and rethink grade repetition to leverage scores in lower performing regions. Moreover, our results with regard to epistemological beliefs and teaching practices challenge thinking about how science should be taught in schools in Italy and Spain. The specific results for each region may allow policy makers to consider more in detail how a region stands in comparison to the rest of the country, and the specific factors that need to be addressed to improve the within-country inequality related to educational achievement.
    Keywords: Regions, Europe, PISA, education, skills, multilevel analysis
    Date: 2018–06
  26. By: Michael, Stuetzer; David, Audretsch; Martin, Obschonka; Samuel, Gosling; Jason, Rentfrow; Jeff, Potter
    Abstract: An extensive literature has emerged in regional studies linking organization-based measures of entrepreneurship (e.g., self-employment, new start-ups) to regional economic performance. A limitation of the extant literature is that the measurement of entrepreneurship is not able to incorporate broader conceptual views, such as behaviour, of what actually constitutes entrepreneurship. This paper fills this gap by linking the underlying and also more fundamental and encompassing entrepreneurship culture of regions to regional economic performance. The empirical evidence suggests that those regions exhibiting higher levels of entrepreneurship culture tend to have higher employment growth. Robustness checks using causal methods confirm this finding.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurship Culture; Regional Development; Economic Growth
    JEL: L26 M13 N9 N91 O3 O31
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Masuda, Kazuya; Sakai, Yoko
    Abstract: International labor mobility is a key factor for a well-functioning labor market. Although educational attainment is known to affect regional labor mobility within a country, evidence of a relationship between schooling and international labor mobility is limited, particularly in developing countries. This study uses the across-cohort variation in the exposure to the 1988 free secondary education reform in the Philippines to examine the impact of years of education on the propensity of working abroad. The results suggest that attaining another year of schooling increases the likelihood of working abroad by 3 and 8 percentage points for men and women, respectively. These results suggest that education improves the ability to deal with negative economic shocks by allowing individuals to find employment in the international labor market.
    Keywords: Labor mobility, Migration, Education, Philippines, Free secondary education
    JEL: J61 R23 I20
    Date: 2018–06
  28. By: Rodrigo Ad\~ao; Michal Koles\'ar; Eduardo Morales
    Abstract: Since Bartik (1991), it has become popular in empirical studies to estimate regressions in which the variable of interest is a shift-share, such as when a regional labor market outcome is regressed on a weighted average of observed sectoral shocks, using the regional sector shares as weights. In this paper, we discuss inference in these regressions. We show that standard economic models imply that the regression residuals are likely to be correlated across regions with similar sector shares, independently of their geographic location. These correlations are ignored by inference procedures commonly used in these regressions, which can lead to severe undercoverage. In regressions studying the effect of randomly generated placebo sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes in U.S. commuting zones, we find that a 5% level significance test based on standard errors clustered at the state level rejects the null of no effect in up to 45% of the placebo interventions. We derive novel confidence intervals that correctly account for the potential correlation in the regression residuals.
    Date: 2018–06
  29. By: Vasco M. Carvalho (Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge); Makoto Nirei (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance,Japan); Yukiko U. Saito (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)); Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi (Columbia Business School, Columbia University)
    Abstract: Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this paper provides a systematic quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the earthquake and its aftermaths propagated upstream and downstream supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. We then use our empirical findings to obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the shock by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the propagation of the shock over input-output linkages can account for a 1.2 percentage point decline in Japan fs gross output in the year following the earthquake. We interpret these findings in the context of a general equilibrium model that takes the firm-to-firmlinkages into account explicitly.
    Date: 2016–12
  30. By: Goodfellow, Tom
    Abstract: In many parts of Africa, societies that remain primarily rural are experiencing accelerated urban growth and highly visible booms in property development. In the absence of significant industrialization, investment is pouring directly into what Lefebvre and Harvey characterized as the ‘secondary circuit’ of capital. Debates about the drivers of investment in real estate are longstanding in relation to the global North, but have given little consideration to low†income and late†urbanizing countries in Africa. Yet such contexts offer important opportunities to reflect on existing theory. Focusing on Kigali and Addis Ababa (both transformed virtually beyond recognition over the past two decades), this article explores the drivers and consequences of investment in urban real estate in countries striving to structurally transform their economies. It argues that a range of formal and informal incentives and constraints have led to high†end real estate being viewed as the ‘safest bet’ for those with resources to invest, even where demand is limited and governments are promoting other kinds of investment. While some people are reaping urban fortunes in largely untaxed rents, much of the construction is purely speculative, creating landscapes of unused and underused high†end properties in contexts where investment is desperately needed elsewhere.
    Date: 2017
  31. By: Bamahriz, Omar; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The diaspora has often been castigated for the real estate bubble as a greater part of their remittances is invested in property. We therefore want to identify the relationship between these remittances, real estate prices and the GDP and employ the ARDL model to try and investigate whether there exists a long run relationship between them. This we believe would make a significant contribution to both the policy makers and academia due to scarce literature focused on the diaspora’s effect on the real estate prices in their home countries. We find no causal relationship between the remittances and the real estate bubble but find a trade-off in using the exchange rate to make housing more affordable at the expense of economic growth.
    Keywords: remittances, real estate prices, economic growth, ARDL
    JEL: C22 C58 J6 R3
    Date: 2018–06–06
  32. By: Floriana Cerniglia - Riccarda Longaretti - Alessandra Michelangeli
    Abstract: In this paper we exploit data at regional level on decentralized public expenditure provided by Conti pubblici territoriali from 1996 to 2014 and we decompose decentralized public expenditure into current and capital spending. The aim is to disentangle their specific effect on economic growth. Since literature does not provide unanimous indication about the effect of different component of expenditure on growth, we consider a generalized additive model, which is a semi-parametric estimation method that allows more flexibility than conventional estimation techniques. Our findings show a on-linear effect, that is different according to categories of expenditure. More specifically, the effect of capital expenditure is positive, while, decentralized current expenditure tends to have a negative effect on the rate of economic growth.
    Keywords: decentralization; capital expenditure; current expenditure, growth
    JEL: R11 R12 R23
    Date: 2017
  33. By: Gradstein, Mark (Ben Gurion University); Justman, Moshe (Ben Gurion University)
    Abstract: The diversity of social interaction within economic communities affects productivity and growth, and is itself shaped by economic conditions. These reciprocal effects raise the possibility of multiple equilibria, of setting a socially polarized economy stagnating in poverty on a new path of social integration and economic growth through external intervention or an internal political initiative. This paper describes a simple analytical model that captures these reciprocal effects, and sheds light on the role of government capacity, community leadership, federation and external credit or aid, in achieving economic growth through social integration.
    Keywords: cultural diversity, economic growth, social interaction
    JEL: O11 Z10 Z18
    Date: 2018–05
  34. By: Esteban Jaimovich
    Abstract: We propose a model where the internal transport network facilitates the sourcing of intermediate goods from different locations. A denser internal transport network promotes thus the growth of industries that rely on a large variety of inputs. The model shows that heterogeneities in internal transport infrastructures can become a key factor in shaping comparative advantage and specialization. Moreover, when sufficiently pronounced, such heterogeneities may even overshadow more traditional sources of specialization based on factor productivities. Evidence based on industry-level trade data grants support to the main prediction of the model: countries with denser road networks export relatively more in industries that exhibit broader input bases. We show that this correlation is robust to several possible confounding effects proposed by the literature, such as the impact of institutions on specialization in complex goods. Furthermore, we show that a similar correlation arises as well when the density of the local transport network is measured by the density of their internal waterways, and also when road density is instrumented with measures of terrain roughness.
    Keywords: International Trade, Comparative Advantage, Internal Transportation Costs
    JEL: F11 O18 R12
    Date: 2018–06–28
  35. By: Nathalie VALLET (University of Antwerp, Faculty of Design Sciences, Henri van de Velde Research Group, Belgium); Simon DE NYS-KETELS (University of Antwerp, Faculty of Design Sciences, Henri van de Velde Research Group, Belgium); Michelle BYLEMANS (University of Antwerp, Faculty of Design Sciences, Henri van de Velde Research Group, Belgium)
    Abstract: In order to remedy the economic position of socially vulnerable citizens in Flemish cities, the University of Antwerp has launched the concept of an “Inclusive Participation (IEP) site”. According to the CIRIEC workgroup “SSE and territories”, an IEP site can be defined as a particular territorial network that accommodates partners who jointly try to resolve, under the environmental constraints of an urban setting, the challenge of an inclusive economic participation. On the basis of two explorative research projects, the working paper illustrates the fine-tuning of the concept and the development of strategic-spatial blueprints to successfully design and manage these IEP sites.
    Keywords: inclusive economic participation, Flemish cities, IEP site, grounded theory
    JEL: H70 J64 P13 L31
    Date: 2017–04
  36. By: Masako Ikefuji (University of Tsukuba); Roger J. A. Laeven (University of Amsterdam, CentER, EURANDOM); Jan R. Magnus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Yuan Yue (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of short-run and long-run earthquake risk on Japanese property prices. We exploit a rich panel data set of property characteristics, ward attractiveness information, macroeconomic variables, seismic hazard data, and historical earthquake occurrences, supplemented with short-run earthquake probabilities that we generate from a seismic excitation model. We design a hedonic property price model that allows for probability weighting, employ a multivariate error components structure, and develop associated maximum likelihood estimation and variance computation procedures. We find that distorted short-run and long-run earthquake probabilities have a significantly negative impact on property prices. Our approach enables us to identify the total compensation for earthquake risk embedded in property prices and to decompose this into pieces stemming from short-run and long-run risk, and to further decompose this into objective and distorted risk components.
    Keywords: Earthquake risk; House price; Seismic excitation; Probability weighting; Hedonic pricing; Multivariate error components.
    JEL: R20 C33 D81 Q51
    Date: 2018–07–11
  37. By: Sebastian Galiani; Laura Jaitman; Federico Weinschelbaum
    Abstract: We develop a theoretical model to study how changes in the durability of the goods affects prices of stolen goods, the incentives to steal and the equilibrium crime rate. When studying the production of durable goods, we find that the presence of crime affects consumer and producer surplus and thus their behaviour, market equilibrium, and, in turn, the social optimum. Lower durability of goods reduces the incentive to steal those goods, thus reducing crime. When crime is included in the standard framework of durable goods, the socially optimal durability level is lower. When considering different stealing technologies, perfect competition either over-produces durability or produces zero (minimum) durability. The monopolist under-produces durability. The model has a clear policy implication: the durability of goods, and the market structure for those goods, can be an effective instrument to reduce crime. In particular, making the durability of a good contingent upon that good being stolen is likely to increase welfare. We also study the incentives to develop and use this optimal technology.
    Keywords: Crime, theft, durability, perfect competition, monopoly, externality, social optimum
    JEL: K00 K42 D40 D62
    Date: 2018–07–05
  38. By: Morgan Kelly (University College Dublin, CAGE and CEPR); Cormac Ó Gráda (University College Dublin and CAGE)
    Abstract: Although urban growth historically depended on large inflows of migrants, little is known of the process of migration in the era before railways. Here we use detailed data for Paris on women arrested for prostitution in the 1760s, or registered as prostitutes in the 1830s and 1850s; and of men holding identity cards in the 1790s, to examine patterns of female and male migration. We supplement these with data on all women and men buried in 1833. Migration was highest from areas of high living standards, measured by literacy rates. Distance was a strong deterrent to female migration (reflecting limited employment opportunities) that falls with railways, whereas its considerably lower impact on men barely changes through the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Migration, gravity, prostitution.
    Date: 2018–06
  39. By: Stefan Schiman (WIFO)
    Abstract: Austria's Beveridge Curve has shifted markedly outwards since labor market access for Eastern European neighbors was liberalized in 2011. I quantify the effects of labor supply shocks by means of a structural VAR with sign restrictions, distinguish domestic-worker from foreign-worker shocks and find that the latter contributed considerably to the counter-clockwise outward movement. On impact, the arrival of additional job seekers facilitates matching but it lowers the chance for existing job seekers to be matched, raising employment and unemployment simultaneously. In the medium run vacancies increase, the employment surge accelerates and unemployment declines. Labor supply shocks caused by foreigners have an unambiguous and positive effect on domestic employment in the long run, indicating complementarity between foreign and domestic labor. On a regional level Vienna, the capital in the east of the country, was most heavily exposed to the recent labor immigration boom.
    Keywords: labour supply shocks, Beveridge Curve, job-related immigration, sign restrictions, structural VAR
    Date: 2018–07–19
  40. By: Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gianluca Santoni (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales)
    Abstract: Geography, economic size, or common history, help predicting signed regional trade agreements (RTAs). However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants. Endogeneity and general equilibrium effects of RTAS are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal RTAS. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs.
    Keywords: preferential trade agreements,global value chains,structural gravity
    Date: 2018–04–22
  41. By: Blesse, Sebastian; Roesel, Felix
    Abstract: While many central governments amalgamate municipalities, mergers of larger county administrations are rare and hardly explored. In this paper, we assess both fiscal and political effects of county mergers in two different institutional settings: counties act autonomously as upperlevel local governments (Germany), or counties being decentralised branches of the state government (Austria). We apply difference-in-differences estimations to county merger reforms in each country. In both cases, some counties were amalgamated while others remain untouched. Austrian counties (Bezirke) and German counties (Landkreise) widely differ in terms of autonomy and institutions, but our results are strikingly similar. In both cases, we neither find evidence for cost savings nor for staff reductions. Instead, voter turnout consistently decreases in merged counties, and right-wing populists seem to gain additional support. We conclude that political costs clearly outweigh fiscal null benefits of county merger reforms - independent of the underlying institutional setting.
    Keywords: County mergers,Local government,Expenditures,Local elections,Voter turnout
    Date: 2018
  42. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Maennig, Wolfgang; Mueller, Steffen Q.
    Abstract: We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that older voters are more likely to resist reform projects, particularly those that are associated with the political left. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias. Our results suggest that population aging raises the hurdle for investment-like reform projects with positive net present values, long-run benefits and short-run costs in direct polls.
    Keywords: age; cohort; direct democracy; generation gap; status quo; referendum; reform; utility
    JEL: D7 H3
    Date: 2018–06–01
  43. By: Marcel Ausloos (University of Leicester); Roy Cerqueti (University of Macerata); Tariq A. Mir (Bhabha Atomic Research Center, Srinagar)
    Abstract: This dataset contains the annual aggregated income taxes of all the Italian municipalities over the years 2007-2011. Data are clustered over the Italian regions and provinces. The source of the data is the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance. The administrative variations in Italy over the quinquennium have been taken into account. Data are useful to understand the economic structure of Italy at the microscopic level of municipalities. They can serve also for making comparisons between economical aspects and other features of the Italian cities.
    Date: 2018–06
  44. By: Andrew C. Chang; Joanne W. Hsu; Sarah Pack; Michael G. Palumbo
    Abstract: To get a more comprehensive picture of how families' uncommitted income has evolved since the financial crisis, we analyze a broader measure of households’ committed monthly payments that includes rent for renters, as well as payments to cover mortgages for homeowners and other debt obligations for all families.
    Date: 2018–06–20
  45. By: Laté Ayao Lawson; Phu Nguyen-Van
    Abstract: Why do coastal located African countries seem more energies consuming? Do institutional and geographical factors matter to energy consumption as in the case of economic growth? Are there any spatial spillovers in primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa? To answer these questions which have been surprisingly few addressed in the existing literature, we empirically assess the link between energy use and economic growth in SSA, exploiting spatial data analysis methods. Our empirical results highlight the existence of positive spatial spillovers in primary energy use. We also derive factors (income, population dynamics and urbanization) explaining why coastal located countries are more energy intensive than inland ones. Furthermore, good political institutions encourage energy consumption, connoting a two side of the same coin phenomenon. Globally, our results impel African countries to develop alternative energies strategies and to deploy energy management policies, since increases in the demand for energies and related environmental consequences are expected in a near future.
    Keywords: Energy, institutions, locational and spatial effects, development.
    JEL: C23 O55 Q43 Q56
    Date: 2018
  46. By: Abe Dunn; Bryn Whitmire; Andrea Batch; Lasanthi Fernando; Lindsey Rittmueller (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
    Date: 2018–06
  47. By: Germà Bel (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiM-IREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131 Fax:34.93.4024573); Marianna Sebo (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiM-IREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131 Fax:34.93.4024573)
    Abstract: Inter-municipal cooperation in public service delivery has attracted the interest of local authorities seeking to reform public service provision in recent years. Cost saving has been among the most important drivers of such cooperation. However, the empirical results from the literature on inter-municipal cooperation and its associated costs offer contradictory outcomes in this regard. The boom in empirical studies addressing this question over the last decade offers insights into the factors that might explain the discrepancy in reported outcomes. With this objective in mind, we conduct a meta-regression analysis that considers all existing multivariate empirical studies of this matter. We formulate several hypotheses regarding scale economies, transaction costs, and governance of cooperation, based on the prior theoretical literature. While we find no clear indications of the role played by transaction costs in the relationship between cooperation and service delivery costs, we find strong evidence that population size and governance are significant in explaining the relationship. Specifically, small populations and delegation to a higher tier of government seem to offer cost advantages to municipalities when opting to cooperate. Furthermore, we build an extension of our model by disentangling service-related transaction costs based on asset specificity and ease of measurability of the service.
    Keywords: inter-municipal cooperation, local government, cost saving, transaction costs, meta- regression analysis JEL classification:H70, H77, R51
    Date: 2018–07
  48. By: Bhuller, Manudeep (University of Oslo); Dahl, Gordon D. (University of California San Diego); Løken, Katrine V. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Mogstad, Magne (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: Understanding whether, and in what situations, time spent in prison is criminogenic or preventive has proven challenging due to data availability and correlated unobservables. This paper overcomes these challenges in the context of Norway’s criminal justice system, offering new insights into how incarceration affects subsequent crime and employment. We construct a panel dataset containing the criminal behavior and labor market outcomes of the entire population, and exploit the random assignment of criminal cases to judges who differ systematically in their stringency in sentencing defendants to prison. Using judge stringency as an instrumental variable, we find that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, and that the reduction extends beyond incapacitation. Incarceration decreases the probability an individual will reoffend within 5 years by 29 percentage points, and reduces the number of offenses over this same period by 11 criminal charges. In comparison, OLS shows positive associations between incarceration and subsequent criminal behavior. This Sharp contrast suggests the high rates of recidivism among ex-convicts is due to selection, and not a consequence of the experience of being in prison. Exploring factors that may explain the preventive effect of incarceration, we find the decline in crime is driven by individuals who were not working prior to incarceration. Among these individuals, imprisonment increases participation in programs directed at improving employability and reducing recidivism, and ultimately, raises employment and earnings while discouraging further criminal behavior. For previously employed individuals, while there is no effect on recidivism, there is a lasting negative effect on employment. Contrary to the widely embraced ‘nothing works’ doctrine, these findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can indeed be preventive for a large segment of the criminal population.
    Keywords: Crime; employment; incarceration; recidivism
    JEL: J24 K42
    Date: 2018–06–20
  49. By: -
    Abstract: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development reflects a consensus on the need to move towards more egalitarian, cohesive and solidarity-based societies, and calls for ensuring that “no one will be left behind” on the road to development. The regional commissions of the United Nations have come together to prepare this report, which synthesizes regional findings and lessons learned in the conceptualization, design and implementation of public policies and programmes oriented towards greater equality. As this report highlights, inequality includes —but transcends— income inequality and relates to the uneven exercise of rights, unequal access to opportunities and capacity development, and unequal results. Social inequality gives rise to adverse social, environmental and economic consequences, stratified by economic status, age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin or religion. However, social inequality can be successfully addressed and is not an inevitable outcome. Promoting greater equality through adequate social protection, health, education, labour and fiscal policies not only helps to safeguard the economic, social and cultural rights of all people, but also fosters growth, development and greater social justice.
    Date: 2018–07–06
  50. By: Brice Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper brings new evidence on the impact of income inequality on public decisions. Using a new panel database on French municipalities' accounts, and on households' income distribution at the local level, I estimate the impact of income distribution on municipal policy. This paper is the first to investigate this issue by simultaneously using a high number of comparable observations and identifying deciles of the income distribution which matter. After controlling for municipal fixed effects and for the dynamics of municipal incumbents' decisions, I find no impact of income inequality on operating spending, but a strong positive impact on municipal infrastructures. Evidence suggests that an increase in income inequality by 1% leads on average to an increase in the value of municipal infrastructures between 0.06% and 0.18%. Importantly, I find that this result is driven by variations in bottom and top deciles. There is clear evidence that additive public facilities associated to more inequality are due to higher tax rates. When poorest individuals get poorer, or when richest ones get richer, municipal incumbents decide to increase the amount of infrastructures by increasing local taxation. These results suggest that what matter in public decisions are the extreme parts of voters' income distribution, and that lower bottom incomes and higher top ones both lead to a higher size of government.
    Keywords: Income Inequality,Public Goods,Taxation,Local Governments
    Date: 2018–03
  51. By: Geoffrey J.D. Hewings (Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL), University of Illinois)
    Abstract: This working paper reproduces the speech by Professor Geoffrey J.D. Hewings at the Nomination Ceremony as Member of the Andalusian Regional Science Academy, on 28 May 2018 at Loyola Andalusia University.Professor Hewings reviews the evolution of Regional Science since the sixties, highlighting the key and forgotten role of the space when the outcomes of the economic policies are assessed in terms of developments. In addition,the challenges posed by demographic change are drawn, pointing out the future research directions to be addressed by regional modelers.
    Keywords: Regional Science, Regional Development, Demographic changes.
    JEL: J11 O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2018–07
  52. By: Bertrand, Marianne; Kamenica, Emir
    Abstract: We analyze temporal trends in cultural distance between groups in the US defind by income, education, gender, race, and political ideology. We measure cultural distance between two groups as the ability to infer an individual's group based on his or her (i) media consumption, (ii) consumer behavior, (iii) time use, or (iv) social attitudes. Gender difference in time use decreased between 1965 and 1995 and has remained constant since. Differences in social attitudes by political ideology and income have increased over the last four decades. Whites and non-whites have converged somewhat on attitudes but have diverged in consumer behavior. For all other demographic divisions and cultural dimensions, cultural distance has been broadly constant over time.
    Date: 2018–06
  53. By: Bloom, Nick; Lucking, Brian; Van Reenen, John
    Abstract: This paper revisits the results of Bloom, Schankerman, and Van Reenen (2013) examining the impact of R&D on the performance of US firms, especially through spillovers. We extend their analysis to include an additional 15 years of data through 2015, and update the measures of firms' interactions in technology space and product market space. We show that the magnitude of R&D spillovers appears to have been broadly similar in the second decade of the 21st Century as it was in the mid-1980s. However, there does seem to have been some increase in the wedge between marginal social returns to R&D and marginal private returns with the ratio of marginal social to private returns increasing to a factor of 4 from 3. There is certainly no evidence that the need to subsidize R&D has diminished. Positive spillovers appeared to increase in the 1995-2004 boom.
    Keywords: innovation; RD; patents; productivity and spillovers
    JEL: F23 O31 O32 O33
    Date: 2018–05–01
  54. By: Paridhi Choudhary; Aniket Jain; Rahul Baijal
    Abstract: This paper analyzes Airbnb listings in the city of San Francisco to better understand how different attributes such as bedrooms, location, house type amongst others can be used to accurately predict the price of a new listing that optimal in terms of the host's profitability yet affordable to their guests. This model is intended to be helpful to the internal pricing tools that Airbnb provides to its hosts. Furthermore, additional analysis is performed to ascertain the likelihood of a listings availability for potential guests to consider while making a booking. The analysis begins with exploring and examining the data to make necessary transformations that can be conducive for a better understanding of the problem at large while helping us make hypothesis. Moving further, machine learning models are built that are intuitive to use to validate the hypothesis on pricing and availability and run experiments in that context to arrive at a viable solution. The paper then concludes with a discussion on the business implications, associated risks and future scope.
    Date: 2018–05
  55. By: Colmer, Jonathan
    Abstract: Temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor are associated with increases in the share of workers engaged in manufacturing, suggesting that the ability of non-agricultural sectors to absorb workers may play a key role in attenuating the economic consequences of weather-driven changes in agricultural productivity. Exploiting firm-level variation in the propensity to absorb these workers, I find that this reallocation is associated with relative expansions in manufacturing activity in exible labor market environments. Counter-factual estimates suggest that in the absence of labor reallocation the aggregate consequences of temperature increases would be up to 40% higher.
    Keywords: labor reallocation; agricultural productivity; labor regulation; industrial production
    JEL: J62 O13 Q54
    Date: 2018–05–01

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