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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani; Ivan Lopez Cruz; Gustavo Torrens |
| Abstract: | How to make police deployment strategies more efficient is becoming the crucial research agenda for the economics of crime and law enforcement. We contribute to this agenda developing the first general equilibrium model designed to study how the geographic distribution of police protection affects the decision to pursue illegal activities, the intensity and location of crime, residential choices, housing prices, and the welfare of different socioeconomic groups. The target is to explore the positive and normative long-run effects of different ways of spatially allocating police forces in an urban area. We find that, when the police protect some neighborhoods (concentrated protection), the city becomes segregated, while when the police are evenly deployed across the city (dispersed protection), an integrated city emerges. Unequal societies face a difficult dilemma in that concentrated protection maximizes aggregate welfare but exacerbates social disparities. Taxes and subsidies can be employed to offset the disadvantages of police concentration. Private security makes an integrated city less likely to occur in equilibrium. Even under dispersed public protection, rich agents may use private security to endogenously isolate themselves in closed neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | Policy deployment, Crime, Spatial equilibrium, Inequality |
| JEL: | K42 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:016343&r=ure |
| By: | Alexander M. Danzer; Carsten Feuerbaum; Marc Piopiunik; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | Does a high regional concentration of immigrants of the same ethnicity affect immigrant children’s acquisition of host-country language skills and educational attainment? We exploit the exogenous placement of guest workers from five ethnicities across German regions during the 1960s and 1970s in a model with region and ethnicity fixed effects. Our results indicate that exposure to a higher own-ethnic concentration impairs immigrant children’s host-country language proficiency and increases school dropout. A key mediating factor for this effect is parents’ lower speaking proficiency in the host-country language, whereas inter-ethnic contacts with natives and economic conditions do not play a role. |
| Keywords: | immigrant children, ethnic concentration, language, education, guest workers |
| JEL: | J15 I20 R23 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:180_danzerfeuerbaumpiopiunikwoessmann&r=ure |
| By: | Christophe Muller (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Pierre Pecher (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | Ethnicity often occupies a core role in integrated social, economic, and political development processes, which have mostly been studied within specific countries. Across countries, social and economic development may be supported by political capabilities achieved by ethnic kin abroad, although there is little hard evidence on politico-economic interactions through ethnic networks. We fill this gap by providing the first robust empirical evidence of the substantial effects of political predominance of transborder ethnic kin on local economic development in Africa. This is achieved by specifying and estimating dynamic spatial models of geolocalised luminosity and matching these data with other geolocalised information on geographic, political, and ethnic characteristics. Spatial and ethnic network effects are separately identified and jointly analysed. Not only distinct spatial effects and transborder ethnic effects are exhibited, but also are their complex dynamics and spatial distribution features in terms of local development. The results draw attention to the relevance of a broader international perspective on policies affecting ethnic politics within countries. |
| Keywords: | local development,ethnic networks,institutions |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01801170&r=ure |
| By: | Gregory Verdugo (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Sorana Toma (CREST-ENSAI) |
| Abstract: | Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the share of non-European immigrants in public housing in Europe, which has led to concern regarding the rise of “ghettos” in large cities. Using French census data over three decades, we examine how this increase in public housing participation has affected segregation. While segregation levels have increased moderately on average, the number of immigrant enclaves has grown. The growth of enclaves is being driven by the large increase in non-European immigrants in the census tracts where the largest housing projects are located, both in the housing projects and the surrounding non-public dwellings. As a result, contemporary differences in segregation levels across metropolitan areas are being shaped by the concentration of public housing within cities, in particular the share of non-European immigrants in large housing projects constructed before the 1980s. Nevertheless, the overall effect of public housing on segregation has been ambiguous. While large projects have increased segregation, the inflows of non-European immigrants into small projects have brought many immigrants into census tracts where they have previously been rare and, thus, diminished segregation levels. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Europe; France; Immigration |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/31cfdhnp1f8asp29hjnqv33slt&r=ure |
| By: | Elliot Anenberg; Edward Kung |
| Abstract: | We estimate a neighborhood choice model using 2014 American Community Survey data to investigate the degree to which new housing supply can improve housing affordability. In the model, equilibrium rental rates are determined so that the number of households choosing each neighborhood is equal to the number of housing units in each neighborhood. We use the estimated model to simulate how rental rates would respond to an exogenous increase in the number of housing units in a neighborhood. We find that the rent elasticity is low, and thus marginal reductions in supply constraints alone are unlikely to meaningfully reduce rent burdens. The reason for this result appears to be that rental rates are more closely determined by the level of amenities in a neighborhood—as in a Rosen-Roback spatial equilibrium framework—than by the supply of housing. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability ; Housing supply ; Neighborhood choice |
| JEL: | R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-35&r=ure |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Hardy, Daniel |
| Abstract: | There are many challenges to building firm competitiveness in posttransition economies, particularly with the intensification of as global trade integration. Intranation variations in firm competitiveness are also stark, highlighting the need for policies to overcome the legacy of pretransition economic structures. Utilizing data from Georgia's annual firm census and household surveys, this paper analyzes the nature of the country's competitive landscape—measured as labor productivity—over the period 2006–2012. The results of our empirical estimations reveal that although a large proportion of a firm's competitiveness is associated with its own characteristics (sorting and compositional effects), location-specific factors are also highly relevant. In particular, the extent of agglomeration, human capital endowments, and local expenditures—such as transport infrastructure investments—play a significant role in conditioning firm-level competitiveness. Given current regional endowments, these findings highlight the significant attention that needs to be paid to building capacities in less-favored areas, not only to ensure that trade integration does not harm Georgia's less-favored regions, but also to make further progress in developing the country's private sector and fully maximize the export potential across its full stock of enterprises. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness; productivity; firms; Georgia transition economies |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67543&r=ure |
| By: | Ebert, Tobias; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Lee, Neil; Obschonka, Martin; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | There is increasing interest in the potential of artificial intelligence and Big Data (e.g., generated via social media) to help understand economic outcomes and processes. But can artificial intelligence models, solely based on publicly available Big Data (e.g., language patterns left on social media), reliably identify geographical differences in entrepreneurial personality/culture that are associated with entrepreneurial activity? Using a machine learning model processing 1.5 billion tweets by 5.25 million users, we estimate the Big Five personality traits and an entrepreneurial personality profile for 1,772 U.S. counties. We find that these Twitter-based personality estimates show substantial relationships to county-level entrepreneurship activity, accounting for 24% (entrepreneurial personality profile) and 32% (all Big Five trait as separate predictors in one model) of the variance in local entrepreneurship and are robust to the introduction in the model of conventional economic factors that affect entrepreneurship. We conclude that artificial intelligence methods, analysing publically available social media data, are indeed able to detect entrepreneurial patterns, by measuring territorial differences in entrepreneurial personality/culture that are valid markers of actual entrepreneurial behaviour. More importantly, such social media datasets and artificial intelligence methods are able to deliver similar (or even better) results than studies based on millions of personality tests (selfreport studies). Our findings have a wide range of implications for research and practice concerned with entrepreneurial regions and eco-systems, and regional economic outcomes interacting with local culture. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; Big Data; Big Five; Counties; entrepreneurship; personality; psychological traits; social media; Twitter; U.S. |
| JEL: | L26 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12949&r=ure |
| By: | Vlachos, Jonas (Department of Economics, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | In Sweden, a trust-based system of school performance evaluation meets a market-oriented school system with liberal entry conditions for voucher-funded private providers. National standardized tests are graded at the local school and what ultimately matters to students are teacher-set grades. This paper finds that privately run free schools systematically set higher grades than public schools when controlling for their achievement on national tests. The differences between municipal and free schools are larger when more reliable tests are used to account for achievement. Differences in grading standards between providers are substantial and most of the performance advantage in teacher-set grades that free schools enjoy can be attributed to more generous grading. The results also indicate that different private providers do not necessarily respond symmetrically when faced with similar market conditions and act under the same regulatory regime. |
| Keywords: | Private provision of public services; School performance evaluation; School vouchers |
| JEL: | H44 I28 L51 |
| Date: | 2018–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1217&r=ure |
| By: | Munford, L.;; Rice, N.;; Roberts, J.;; Jacob, N.; |
| Abstract: | Commuting is an extremely important modern phenomenon characterised by the spatial interaction of housing and labour markets. The average commuter in the UK spends nearly an hour a day travelling to and from employment. Standard economic theory postulates that commuting is a choice behaviour undertaken when compensated through either lower rents or greater amenities in the housing market or through greater wages in the labour market. By exploiting exogenous shocks to commuting time, this paper investigates the impact on wellbeing of increased commuting. Ceteris paribus, exogenous increases in commuting time are expected to lower wellbeing. We find this holds for women but not men. This phenomenon can be explained, in part, by the different labour markets in which women operate. Where local labour markets are thin, women report significantly lower wellbeing when faced with an increased commute. This does not hold for tight local labour markets. Further our findings reveal that it is full-time working women in the managerial and professional tier of the occupational hierarchy who are most affected. |
| Keywords: | commuting; exogenous shocks; well-being; panel data econometrics; |
| JEL: | C1 I1 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:18/14&r=ure |
| By: | Head, Keith; Li, Yao Amber; Minondo, Asier |
| Abstract: | Using data on academic citations, career and educational histories of mathematicians, and disaggregated distance data for the world's top 1000 math departments, we study how geography and ties affect knowledge flows among scholars. The ties we consider are coauthorship, past colocation, advisor-mediated relationships, and alma mater relationships (holding a Ph.D. from the institution where another scholar is affiliated). Logit regressions using fixed effects that control for subject similarity, article quality, and temporal lags, show linkages are strongly associated with citation. Controlling for ties generally halves the negative impact of geographic barriers on citations. Ties matter more for less prominent and more recent papers and show no decline in importance in recent years. The impact of distance--controlling for ties--has fallen and is statistically insignificant after 2004. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12942&r=ure |
| By: | Nathaniel Baum-Snow; J. Vernon Henderson; Matthew A. Turner; Qinghua Zhang; Loren Brandt |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the recently constructed Chinese national highway system on local economic outcomes. On average, roads that improve access to local markets have small or negative effects on prefecture economic activity and population. However, these averages mask a distinct pattern of winners and losers. With better regional highways, economic output and population increase in regional primates at the expense of hinterland prefectures. Highways also affect patterns of specialization. With better regional highways, regional primates specialize more in manufacturing and services, while peripheral areas lose manufacturing but gain in agriculture. Better access to international ports promotes greater population, GDP, and private sector wages on average, effects that are probably larger in hinterland than primate prefectures. An important policy implication is that investing in local transport infrastructure to promote growth of hinterland prefectures has the opposite effect, causing them to specialize more in agriculture and lose economic activity. |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24596&r=ure |
| By: | Tidiane Ly (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Sonia Paty (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of tax base mobility on local taxation. We first develop a theoretical model in order to examine the connection between local business property taxation and tax base mobility within a metropolitan area. We find that decreasing capital intensity in the tax base increases the business property tax rates unambiguously. We then test this result using a French reform, which changes the composition of the main local business tax base in 2010. Estimations using Difference-in-Differences show that the reduction in the mobility of the tax base indeed results in higher business property tax rates. Housing tax rates were not affected by the reform. |
| Keywords: | Local taxation, Tax base mobility, Tax competition, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R50 R51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1811&r=ure |
| By: | Hornbeck, Richard; Moretti, Enrico |
| Abstract: | We estimate the local and aggregate effects of total factor productivity growth on US workers' earnings, housing costs, and purchasing power. Drawing on four alternative instrumental variables, we consistently find that when a city experiences productivity gains in manufacturing, there are substantial local increases in employment and average earnings. For renters, increased earnings are largely offset by increased cost of living; for homeowners, the benefits are substantial. Strikingly, local productivity growth reduces local inequality, as it raises earnings of local less-skilled workers more than the earnings of local more-skilled workers. This is due, in part, to lower geographic mobility of less-skilled workers. However, local productivity growth also has important general equilibrium effects through worker mobility. We estimate that 38% of the overall increase in workers' purchasing power occurs outside cities directly affected by local TFP growth. The indirect effects on worker earnings are substantially greater for more-skilled workers, due to greater geographic mobility of more-skilled workers, which increases inequality in other cities. Neglecting these general equilibrium effects would both understate the overall magnitude of benefits from productivity growth and misstate their distributional consequences. Overall, US workers benefit substantially from productivity growth. Summing direct and indirect effects, we find that TFP growth from 1980 to 1990 increased purchasing power for the average US worker by 0.5-0.6% per year from 1980 to 2000. These gains do not depend on a worker's education; rather, the benefits from productivity growth mainly depend on where workers live. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12953&r=ure |
| By: | Emanuel Kohlscheen; Aaron Mehrotra; Dubravko Mihaljek |
| Abstract: | We analyse the evolution and main drivers of residential investment, using a panel with quarterly data for 15 advanced economies since the 1970s. Residential investment is a notably volatile component of real GDP in all countries in the sample. We find real house price growth, net migration inflows and the size of the existing housing stock to be significant drivers of residential investment across various model specifications. We also detect important asymmetries: interest rate increases affect residential investment more than interest rate cuts, and interest rate changes have larger effects on residential investment when its share in overall GDP is rising. Finally, we show that adding information on residential investment significantly improves the performance of standard recession prediction models. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, residential investment, house prices, business cycles, construction, interest rates, recession forecasts |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E37 E43 E52 F44 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:726&r=ure |
| By: | Damiano Pregaldini (University of Zurich); Uschi Backes-Gellner (University of Zurich); Gerald Eisenkopf (University of Vechta) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how gender composition of classes impacts achievement of students who self-selected into different specialization tracks (STEM vs. Languages) according to their educational preferences. Based on administrative records from one of the largest high schools in the canton of Zurich (Switzerland), we are able to identify the causal effect of the gender composition of classes on student achievement by exploiting random assignment of students to classes. Compared to the previous literature, which mainly focused on average effects across all students, we find highly heterogeneous effects across students who self-selected into different specialization tracks. While the effect of a higher proportion of girls in the classroom is positive for girls and boys with an educational preference for languages, the effect is negative for girls in the STEM track. Our findings have important implications for the optimal organization of classes in schools and for the explanation of career trajectories after school. For instance, concentrating girls in few classes has a positive effect only on girls who favor languages over STEM. |
| Keywords: | classroom gender composition, heterogenous effects, sutdents' selection |
| JEL: | I21 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0152&r=ure |
| By: | Alessia Matano (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona (UB). Tel.: +34-934021825; Fax.: +34-934021821. Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.); Moisés Obaco (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 690 (08034), Barcelona, Spain.); Vicente Royuela (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 690 (08034), Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the incidence of agglomeration externalities in a typical developing country, Ecuador. In particular, we analyze the role of the informal sector within these relations, since informal employment accounts for a significant part of total employment in the developing countries. Using individual level data and instrumental variable techniques, we investigate the impact of spatial externalities, in terms of population size and local specialization, on the wages of workers in Ecuadorian cities. The results show that spatial externalities matter also for a typical developing country, especially as far as urbanization externalities are concerned. Moreover, analysis of the interaction between spatial externalities and the informal economy shows a general penalization for informal workers in terms of benefits arising from agglomeration externalities. Finally, by investigating the possible channels behind the heterogeneity found in spatial agglomeration gains between formal and informal workers, we show that the advantages from agglomeration for formal workers may well be accounted for by positive sorting and better gains from job changes, while for informal workers they arise from positive learning externalities. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration Externalities, Developing Economies, Informal Employment, Workers’ Wages, FUAs, Ecuador. JEL classification:J31, J46, R23, R12. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201813&r=ure |
| By: | Chai, Shijun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chen, Yang (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ye, Dezhu (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2011 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) database, we explore the heterogeneous impacts of social networks on informal financial inclusion for urban and rural households in the People’s Republic of China. We find that social networks significantly increase the probability of households’ participation in the informal financial market, augment the size of informal financial transactions, and raise the ratio of informal lending to total household assets. We also identify the mechanisms through which social networks affect households’ participation in the informal financial market. By reducing the information cost, perceived risk, and precautionary saving, social networks play a larger role for urban households than for rural households. Notably, the effects of social networks on informal finance are strengthened by the development of the formal financial market. |
| Keywords: | social networks; informal financial inclusion; perceived risk; precautionary saving; formal financial market |
| JEL: | D10 G20 |
| Date: | 2018–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0802&r=ure |
| By: | Pernestål Brenden , Anna (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Kristoffersson , Ida (VTI) |
| Abstract: | The development of driverless vehicles is fast, and the technology has the potential to significantly affect the transport system, society and environment. However, there are still many open questions regarding what this development will look like and there are several counteracting forces. This paper addresses the effects of driverless vehicles by performing a literature review of twenty papers that use simulation to model effects of driverless vehicles. By combing and analysing the results from these simulation studies, an overall picture of the effects of driverless vehicles is presented. The paper shows that focus in existing literature has been on effects of driverless taxi applications in urban areas. Some parameters, such as trip cost and waiting time, show small variations between the reviewed papers. Other parameters, such as vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), show larger variations and depend heavily on the assumptions concerning value of time and level of sharing. In general, increases in VKT are predicted for most applications. Ride sharing has the potential to reduce VKT, and thereby energy consumption and congestion, but the analysis indicates that a sufficient level of ride sharing to reduce VKT will not be achieved without incentives or regulations. Furthermore, the VKT of driverless vehicles is unevenly distributed from a time and space perspective, with larger increases in VKT during peak hours than in off-peak, and in the suburbs compared to city centres. The reviewed papers provide a first prediction of factors such as waiting time, VKT and trip cost, in particular for urban areas and for schemes where there is one service provider present. To get a deeper understanding of the effects of driverless vehicles, aspects such as local spatial considerations, e.g. at pick-up stations, and more complex schemes with competition between service providers should be studied. Furthermore, there is a need for sensitivity analyses regarding travel demand. |
| Keywords: | Driverless vehicle; Automated vehicle; Autonomous taxi; Traffic simulation; Societal effects |
| JEL: | R40 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_011&r=ure |
| By: | Chan, Jin; Mohd Hashim, Intan Hashima; Khoo, Suet Leng; Lean, Hooi Hooi; Piterou, Athena |
| Abstract: | George Town World Heritage Site in Penang, Malaysia is well-endowed with creative and cultural resources, and has recently witnessed a rise in relevant activities. This study examines how 'innovation culture' is inculcated and embedded within two local organisations with distinct approaches to innovation. We adapted the measurements of entrepreneurship orientation constructs (innovativeness, risk-taking, pro-activeness), and conducted semi-structured interviews and archival study on the organisations and their networks. We documented the linkages in their value chains to understand the resulting social networks and whether such network fosters the incubation of an innovation cluster for the local creative and cultural sectors. |
| Keywords: | Innovativeness; World Heritage; Social Network; Cluster; Ecosystem |
| Date: | 2018–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:19989&r=ure |
| By: | Gouranga Gopal Das (Department of Economics, Hanyang University.); Sugata Marjit (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta(CSSSC).) |
| Abstract: | With the ensuing immigration reform in the US, the paper shows that targeted skilled immigration into the R&D sector that helps low-skilled labor is conducive for controlling inequality and raising wage. Skilled talent-led innovation could have spillover benefits for the unskilled sector while immigration into the production sector will always reduce wage, aggravating wage inequality. In essence, we infer: (i) if R&D inputs contributes only to skilled sector, wage inequality increases in general; (ii) for wage gap to decrease, R&D sector must produce inputs that goes into unskilled manufacturing sector; (iii) even with two types of specific R&D inputs entering into the skilled and unskilled sectors separately, unskilled labor is not always benefited by high skilled migrants into R&D-sector. Rather, it depends on the importance of migrants’ skill in R&D activities and intensity of inputs. Inclusive immigration policy requires inter-sectoral diffusion of ideas embedded in talented immigrants targeted for innovation. |
| Keywords: | H1B, Immigration, Innovation, Wage gap, Skill, R&D, Policy, RAISE Act |
| JEL: | F22 J31 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:594&r=ure |
| By: | Caterina Calsamglia; Chao Fu; Maia Güell |
| Abstract: | We model household choice of schools under the Boston mechanism (BM) and develop a new method, applicable to a broad class of mechanisms, to fully solve the choice problem even if it is infeasible via the traditional method. We estimate the joint distribution of household preferences and sophistication types using administrative data from Barcelona. Counterfactual policy analyses show that a change from BM to the Deferred Acceptance mechanism would decrease average welfare by 1,020 euros, while a change to the top trading cycles mechanism would increase average welfare by 460 euros. |
| JEL: | I0 J0 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24588&r=ure |
| By: | Berg, Jesper (Danish Financial Supervisory Authority); Nielsen, Morten Bækmand (Nykredit Bank); Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Like the United States, Denmark relies heavily on capital markets for funding residential mortgages, and the Danish covered bond market bears a number of similarities to U.S. agency securitization. In this paper we describe the key features of the Danish mortgage finance system and compare and contrast it to the U.S. system. We also note characteristics of the Danish model that may be of interest as the United States considers further mortgage finance reform. In particular, the Danish system includes features that mitigate refinancing frictions during periods of falling home prices, and offers borrowers the option to repurchase their mortgage at the market price, mitigating “lock-in” effects. Danish mortgage intermediaries also have high capital ratios relative to their risk exposures, contributing to the stability of the Danish market. |
| Keywords: | mortgage; covered bond; securitization; Denmark; United States |
| JEL: | G15 G18 G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:848&r=ure |
| By: | Miranda, Karen; Martínez Ibáñez, Oscar; Manjón Antolín, Miguel C. |
| Abstract: | We consider a correlated random effects specification of the spatial Durbin (dynamic) panel model with an error-term containing individual effects and their spatial spillovers. We derive the likelihood function of the model and the asymptotic properties of the quasimaximum likelihood estimator. We also provide illustrative evidence from a growth-initial level equation and the country dataset analysed by Lee and Yu (2016). While largely replicating their estimates, our results indicate the existence of spatial contagion in the individual effects. In particular, estimated spill-in/out effects reveal the existence of groups of countries with common patterns in their spillovers. Keywords: correlated random effects, Durbin model, spatial dynamic panel data. JEL Classification: C23 |
| Keywords: | Anàlisi espacial (Estadística), Anàlisi de dades de panel, 33 - Economia, |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/313840&r=ure |
| By: | Bimpikis, Kostas (Stanford University); Candogan, Ozan (University of Chicago); Saban, Daniela (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We explore spatial price discrimination in the context of a ride-sharing platform that serves a network of locations. Riders are heterogeneous in terms of their destination preferences and their willingness to pay for receiving service. Drivers decide whether, when, and where to provide service so as to maximize their expected earnings, given the platform's prices. Our findings highlight the impact of the demand pattern on the platform's prices, profits, and the induced consumer surplus. In particular, we establish that profits and consumer surplus are maximized when the demand pattern is "balanced" across the network*s locations. In addition, we show that they both increase monotonically with the balancedness of the demand pattern (as formalized by its structural properties). Furthermore, if the demand pattern is not balanced, the platform can benefit substantially from pricing rides differently depending on the location they originate from. Finally, we consider a number of alternative pricing and compensation schemes that are commonly used in practice and explore their performance for the platform. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3482&r=ure |
| By: | Konon, Alexander (DIW Berlin); Fritsch, Michael (University of Jena); Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the large-scale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, are only influenced by changes in the cyclical component of unemployment, while entries into small-scale industries, like knowledge intensive services, are mostly influenced by changes in the cyclical component of GDP. Thus, our analysis suggests that favorable conditions in terms of high GDP might not be germane for start-ups. Given that both innovative and non-innovative businesses react counter-cyclically in 'regular' recessions, business formation may have a stabilizing effect on the economy. |
| Keywords: | new business formation, entrepreneurship, business cycle, manufacturing, services, innovative industries |
| JEL: | E32 L16 L26 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11501&r=ure |
| By: | Fiala, Nathan; Premand, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Corruption and mismanagement of public resources can affect the quality of government services and undermine growth. Can citizens in poor communities be empowered to demand better-quality public investments? We look at whether providing social accountability training and information on project performance can lead to improvements in local development projects. The program we study is unique in its size and integration in a national program. We find that offering communities a combination of training and information on project quality leads to significant improvements in household welfare. However, providing either social accountability training or project quality information by itself has no welfare effect. These results are concentrated in areas that are reported by local officials as more corrupt or mismanaged, suggesting local agents have significant information about where corruption and mismanagement is worse. We show evidence that the impacts come in part from community members increasing their monitoring of local projects, making more complaints to local and central officials and increasing cooperation. We also find modest improvements in people's trust in the central government. The results suggest that government-led, large-scale social accountability programs can strengthen communities' ability to address corruption and mismanagement as well as improve services. |
| Keywords: | social accountability,community training,scorecards,corruption,service delivery |
| JEL: | D7 H4 O1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:752&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda; Giovanni Peri; Walter Steingress |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. We find that an increase in the first type of immigrants decreases the share of the Republican vote, while an inflow of the second type increases it. These effects are mainly due to the local impact of immigrants on votes of U.S. citizens and they seem independent of the country of origin of immigrants. We also find that the pro-Republican impact of low-skilled immigrants is stronger in low-skilled and non-urban counties. This is consistent with citizens' political preferences shifting towards the Republican Party in places where low-skilled immigrants are more likely to be perceived as competition in the labor market and for public resources. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24510&r=ure |
| By: | León, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of political accountability on the selection of politicians when accountability mechanisms are prone to political capture. Using a comprehensive dataset that records characteristics of candidates for mayor in the last three local elections in Peru, and a close election sharp regression discontinuity design, we compare candidates running for mayor in districts where the incumbent was ousted from office through a recall referendum in the previous electoral term with those who run in districts where the recall referendum failed by a small margin. Candidates in municipalities where the incumbent was recalled are less educated, have less experience in elected offices and in the public sector, and are younger. These findings are consistent with a framework where potential candidates learn about an accountability mechanism which is prone to capture, distorting the main objectives of improving the quality of government, and instead discouraging high quality candidates to run. The negative selection of candidates is partially offset by voters, who elect the best politician out of a lower quality pool of candidates. |
| Keywords: | accountability; Peru; Selection into Politics |
| JEL: | D71 D72 O10 O53 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12941&r=ure |
| By: | Ivankina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to one of the most acute problems of large cities of Russia - the transport system of a metropolis. Modern large cities are developing at such a rapid pace that their transport infrastructure does not have time to develop and transform at the same pace in accordance with the growing number of residents and jobs created in the city and the nearest suburbs. One of the ways to solve this problem is to develop a rational structure and technology for the functioning of Transport Interchange Hubs |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051804&r=ure |
| By: | Giovanni Gualtieri (National Research Council, Institute of Biometeorology); Marcella Nicolini (University of Pavia, Department of Economics); Fabio Sabatini (Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Economics and Law); Luca Zamparelli (Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Economics and Law) |
| Abstract: | The literature shows that when a society believes that wealth is determined by random “luck” rather than by merit, it demands more redistribution. Adverse shocks, like earthquakes, strengthen the belief that random “bad luck” can frustrate the outcomes achieved with merit. We theoretically illustrate that individuals react to such shocks by raising support for redistribution. We then present evidence of this behavior by exploiting a natural experiment provided by one of the strongest seismic events that occurred in Italy in the last three decades, the L’Aquila earthquake in 2009. We assemble a novel dataset by matching information on the ground acceleration registered throughout the National Strong Motion Network during the earthquake with survey data about individual opinions on redistribution collected a few months later. The empirical analysis illustrates that the intensity of the shakes is associated with subsequent stronger beliefs that, for a society to be fair, income inequalities should be levelled by redistribution. |
| Keywords: | Fairness, Redistribution, Inequality, Natural Disasters, Earthquakes |
| JEL: | H10 H53 D63 D69 Z1 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2018.15&r=ure |
| By: | Allcott, Hunt (New York University); Diamond, Rebecca (Stanford University); Dube, Jean-Pierre (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We study the causes of "nutritional inequality": why the wealthy tend to eat more healthfully than the poor in the U.S. Using two event study designs exploiting entry of new supermarkets and households' moves to healthier neighborhoods, we reject that neighborhood environments have economically meaningful effects on healthy eating. Using a structural demand model, we find that exposing low-income households to the same food availability and prices experienced by high-income households would reduce nutritional inequality by only 9%, while the remaining 91% is driven by differences in demand. In turn, these income-related demand differences are partially explained by education, nutrition knowledge, and regional preferences. These findings contrast with discussions of nutritional inequality that emphasize supply-side issues such as food deserts. |
| JEL: | D12 I12 I14 L81 R20 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3631&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Avvisati |
| Abstract: | Teachers are the most important school resource. In every country, teachers’ salaries and training represent the greatest share of expenditure on education; and this investment in teachers can have significant returns. Research shows that being taught by the best teachers can make a real difference in the learning and life outcomes of otherwise similar students.But not all students are equal when it comes to access to high-quality teaching. In fact, PISA data show that there are inequities in access to experienced and qualified teachers in many countries, and that they are related to the gap in learning outcomes between advantaged and disadvantaged students. |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:85-en&r=ure |
| By: | Brachert, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We use the locational pattern of clubs in four major professional football leagues in Europe to test the causal effect of changes in premier league membership on regional employment and output growth at the NUTS 3 level. We rely on the relegation mode of the classical round-robin tournament in the European model of sport to develop a regression-discontinuity design. The results indicate small and significant negative short-term effects on regional employment and output in the sports-related economic sector when clubs are relegated from the premier division of the respective football league. In addition, we find small negative effects on overall regional employment growth. However, total regional gross value added remains unaffected, indicating that in the main it is the less productive jobs that disappear in the short-term. |
| Keywords: | professional football,relegation,regional growth,regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J40 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:102018&r=ure |
| By: | Alan Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University); Mark N Harris (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University); Astghik Mavisakalyan (Bankwest Curtin Economic Centre, Curtin University); Toan Nguyen (Bankwest Curtin Economic Centre, Curtin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares immigration flows in response to changes in labour market conditions to provide an assessment of Australia’s selective immigration policies. We find employer sponsored immigration varied in line with changes in regional wages, with immigrants being drawn to states with greater wage grown. In contrast, evidence does not support this trend for points-based immigrants. We account for the endogeneity bias by exploiting differences in the impact of exogenous commodity price fluctuations on regional wages. A complimentary analysis of a points-based immigration policy reform in 2012 further highlights the role of employers in alleviating the apparent misallocation of points-based immigrants. |
| Keywords: | skilled immigration, location choice, immigration policy |
| JEL: | J21 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ozl:bcecwp:wp1802&r=ure |
| By: | Duccio Gamannossi degl'Innocenti; Matthew D. Rablen |
| Abstract: | We relate tax evasion behavior to a substantial literature on self and social comparison in judgements. Tax payers engage in tax evasion as a means to boost their expected consumption relative to others in their “local” social network, and relative to past consumption. The unique Nash equilibrium of the model relates optimal evasion to a (Bonacich) measure of network centrality: more central taxpayers evade more. The indirect revenue effects from auditing are shown to be ordinally equivalent to a related Bonacich centrality. We generate networks corresponding closely to the observed structure of social networks observed empirically. In particular, our networks contain celebrity taxpayers, whose consumption is widely observed, and who are systematically of higher wealth. In this context we show that, if the tax authority can observe the social network, it is able to raise its audit revenue by around six percent. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, social networks, network centrality, optimal auditing, social comparison, self comparison, habit, indirect effects, relative consumption |
| JEL: | H26 D85 K42 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7063&r=ure |
| By: | Bernstein, Shai (Stanford University); McQuade, Timothy James (Stanford University); Townsend, Richard R. (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and whether such effects mitigate or amplify economic downturns. To do so, we compare the output of innovative workers who were employed at the same firm and lived in the same area at the onset of the 2008 crisis, but who experienced different declines in housing wealth. We find that following a negative wealth shock, innovative workers become less productive, and generate lower economic value for their firms. Consistent with a financial distress channel, the effects are more pronounced among those with little home equity before the crisis and those with fewer outside labor market opportunities. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3649&r=ure |
| By: | Ostrovsky, Michael (Stanford University); Schwarz, Michael (Microsoft) |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between autonomous transportation, carpooling, and road pricing. We discuss how improvements in these technologies, and interactions among them, will affect transportation markets. Our main results show how to achieve socially efficient outcomes in such markets, taking into account the costs of driving, road capacity, and commuter preferences. An important component of the efficient outcome is the socially optimal matching of carpooling riders. Our approach shows how to set road prices and how to share the costs of driving and tolls among carpooling riders in a way that implements the efficient outcome. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3636&r=ure |
| By: | Rhodes, Andrew; Zhou, Jidong |
| Abstract: | A puzzling feature of many retail markets is the coexistence of large multiproduct firms and smaller firms with narrow product ranges. This paper provides a possible explanation for this puzzle, by studying how consumer search frictions influence the structure of retail markets. In our model single-product firms which supply different products can merge to form a multiproduct firm. Consumers wish to buy multiple products, and due to search frictions value the one-stop shopping convenience associated with a multiproduct firm. We find that when search frictions are relatively large all ?rms are multiproduct in equilibrium. However when search frictions are smaller the equilibrium market structure is asymmetric, with di¤erent retail formats coexisting. This allows firms to better segment the market, and as such typically leads to the weakest price competition. When search frictions are low this asymmetric market structure is also the worst for consumers. Moreover due to the endogeneity of market structure, a reduction in the search friction can increase market prices and harm consumers. |
| Keywords: | consumer search; multiproduct pricing; one-stop shopping; retail market structure; conglomerate merger |
| JEL: | D11 D43 D83 L13 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32715&r=ure |
| By: | Jia, Pengfei; Lim, King Yoong |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of a government tax policy in a growth model with economic transition and toxic housing bubbles applied to China. Such a policy combines taxing entrepreneurs with a one-time redistribution to workers in the same period. Under the tax policy, we find that the welfare improvement for workers is non-monotonic. In particular, there exists an optimal tax at which social welfare is maximized. Moreover, we consider the welfare effects of setting the tax at its optimum. We show that the tax policy can be welfare-enhancing, compare to the case without active policies. The optimal tax may also yield a higher level of welfare than the case even without housing bubbles. Finally, we calibrate the model to China. Our quantitative results show that the optimal tax rate is about 23 percent, and social welfare is significantly improved with such a tax policy. |
| Keywords: | China, Economic Transition, Housing Bubbles, Welfare |
| JEL: | O18 P31 R21 R28 |
| Date: | 2018–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86576&r=ure |
| By: | Derrien, François; Kecskes, Ambrus; Nguyen, Phuong-Anh |
| Abstract: | Firms in younger labor markets produce more innovation. We establish this using the local labor force projected based on historical births in each local labor market in the United States. Three successive levels of analysis – labor markets, firms, and inventors – allow us to separate out effects such as firm and inventor life cycles. We also find that corporate innovation activities reflect the innovative characteristics of younger labor forces, and firms in younger labor markets have higher valuations. Our results indicate that younger people as a group – inventors interacting with non-inventors – produce more innovation for firms through the labor supply channel rather than through a financing supply or consumer demand channel. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Demographics; Age structure; Labor markets; Firms; Inventors; Patents |
| JEL: | G31 J11 J13 J21 J24 O31 O32 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2018–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1243&r=ure |
| By: | Hélène Bouscasse (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Mode choice depends on observable characteristics of the transport modes and of the decision maker, but also on unobservable characteristics, known as latent variables. By means of an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model, which is a combination of structural equation model and discrete choice model, it is theoretically possible to integrate both types of variables in a psychologically and economically sound mode choice model. To achieve such a goal requires clear positioning on the four dimensions covered by ICLV models: survey methods, econometrics, psychology and economics. This article presents a comprehensive survey of the ICLV literature applied to mode choice modelling. I review how latent variables are measured and incorporated in the ICLV models, how they contribute to explaining mode choice and how they are used to derive economic outputs. The main results are: 1) the latent variables used to explain mode choice are linked to individual mental states, perceptions of transport modes, or an actual performed behaviour; 2) the richness of structural equation models still needs to be explored to fully embody the psychological theories explaining mode choice; 3) the integration of latent variables helps to improve our understanding of mode choice and to adapt public policies. |
| Keywords: | Mode choice,Survey,Integrated choice and latent variable model,Structural equation modelling,Behavioural theories,Economic outputs |
| Date: | 2018–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01795630&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Abel (Middlebury College); Rulof Burger (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Eliana Carranza (World Bank); Patrizio Piraino (University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | We test the effects of plan-making on job search and employment. In a field experiment with unemployed youths, participants who complete a detailed job search plan increase the number of job applications submitted (15%) but not the time spent searching, consistent with intention-behavior gaps observed at baseline. Job seekers in the plan-making group diversify their search strategy and use more formal search channels. This greater search efficiency and effectiveness translate into more job offers (30%) and employment (26%). Weekly reminders and peer-support sub-treatments do not improve the impacts of plan-making, suggesting that limited attention and accountability are unlikely mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Action Plan; Job Search; Active Labor Market Policy |
| JEL: | J64 J68 C93 D91 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers304&r=ure |
| By: | John F. Helliwell; Hugh Shiplett; Christopher P. Barrington-Leigh |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new public-use dataset for community-level life satisfaction in Canada, based on more than 400,000 observations from the Canadian Community Health Surveys and the General Social Surveys. The country is divided into 1215 similarly sampled geographic regions, using natural, built, and administrative boundaries. A cross-validation exercise suggests that our choice of minimum sampling thresholds approximately maximizes the predictive power of our estimates. Our procedure reveals robust differences in life satisfaction between and across urban and rural communities. We then match the life satisfaction data with a range of key census variables to explore ways in which lives differ in the most and least happy communities. The data presented here are useful on their own to study community-level variation, and can also be used to provide contextual variables for multi-level modelling with individual life satisfaction data set in a community context. |
| JEL: | C81 I31 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24592&r=ure |
| By: | Fish, Paul |
| Abstract: | The paper shares the author’s on-going experience in supporting the implementation of property tax reform programmes in smaller urban centres and rural districts in Sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 12 local governments over a period of more than 10 years. The paper presents a generic training manual, designed to offer practical guidance for property tax reformers on the process of mobilising revenue. The guidance details the process stepby- step together with supporting materials, schedules and examples of survey instruments. Some results, lessons learned, and next steps have previously been published. |
| Keywords: | Governance, |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idq:ictduk:13811&r=ure |
| By: | Casey, Katherine (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Classic arguments for decentralization, augmented by ideas about how participation empowers the poor, motivate the widely used approach in foreign aid called community-driven development. CDD devolves control over the selection, implementation and financial management of public goods to communities. Until recently, policy enthusiasm has outstripped the evidence. I synthesize findings from randomized controlled trials and find that CDD effectively delivers public goods and modest economic returns at low cost in difficult environments. There is little evidence, however, that CDD transforms local decision-making or empowers the poor in any enduring way. Part of this failure may be because some constraints believed important--like insufficient social capital--appear not to bind. Others, like exclusive local institutions, are a problem, however not one that CDD remedies. These results present a conundrum: how much participation is enough to safeguard the gains of such "extreme" decentralization, while minimizing the opportunity costs imposed on poor people's time? |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3629&r=ure |
| By: | Vicente Cardoso; Marcelo Resende |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effect of police presence on homicides at the municipality level in Brazil during the January 2010 to December 2014 period. For this purpose, occasional and illegal police strikes are considered as relevant shocks in a quasi-natural experiment. After controlling for different variables that explain heterogeneity across municipalities, it is possible to identify a sizeable effect accruing from police strikes on the occurrence of homicides. Despite a conservative analysis that involves temporal and spatial aggregation of variables, the evidence indicates that police strikes lead, on average, to a 16% increase in the homicide rate if one considers a broader sample of 3597 municipalities. The focus of the analysis for a large and heterogeneous country also partially may mitigate concerns for external validity that had been raised in the context of previous studies in the related literature. |
| Keywords: | police strikes, crime |
| JEL: | C23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7064&r=ure |
| By: | Arlan Brucal (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science); Michael J. Roberts (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa; UHERO; Sea Grant at University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of 48 contiguous U.S. states for the period 1973-2013, we study how oil price shocks influence state-level economic growth. The analysis incorporates (1) a structural decomposition of the supply and demand factors that drive the real price of crude oil; (2) heterogeneity of states in terms of their production and consumption of oil and natural gas; and (3) economic spillovers across neighboring states. Oil price effects vary across states, depending on the underlying source of the price shock and a state's average production of oil relative to its average consumption. Oil-exporting states are more vulnerable to unanticipated changes in oil prices, and the direct effect of oil price shocks can magnify or temper effects on neighboring states. Aggregated predictions from the state-level model also differ modestly from stand-alone aggregate model (Kilian, 2009). The aggregated state-level model implies that the recent (2005-2016) decline in U.S. dependence on foreign oil reduced aggregate sensitivity to exogenous supply shocks by more than a third. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks, economic spillovers, dynamic |
| JEL: | E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2018-4&r=ure |
| By: | Stefan Borsky (University of Graz, Austria); Christian Unterberger (Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks frequently impair the smooth functioning of transportation systems. To further add empirical evidence to this finding, we use a dataset consisting of 2.14 million flightdepartures from ten large U.S. airports between January 2012 and September 2017, and estimate the effects sudden onset events, i.e., precipitation and wind, and slow onset events, i.e., temperature, have on departure delay. For sudden onset events, we apply a difference-in-difference framework that allows for inferences at the hourly level. The effects of slow onset events on departure delay are estimated based on a Prais Winstein estimator with panel-corrected standard errors. Our estimates show a significant increase in departure delay of up to 23 minutes depending on the weather type and intensity of the disturbance. Given the social costs of schedule delays, these results are important. This is especially true in the light of climate change, which will alter the frequency and intensity of adverse weather phenomena. |
| Keywords: | Flight Departure delays; Climate change impact; Sudden and slow onset events |
| JEL: | Q54 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2018-13&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Cornelissen (University of York); Christian Dustmann (University College London, CReAM); Anna Raute (Queen Mary University); Uta Schönberg (University College London, CReAM) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care (preschool) program in Germany by exploiting the exogenous variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large staggered expansion across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. This pattern of reverse selection on gains is driven by unobserved family background characteristics: children from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to attend child care than children from advantaged backgrounds but have larger treatment effects because of their worse outcome when not enrolled in child care. |
| Keywords: | Universal child care, child development, marginal treatment effects |
| JEL: | J13 J15 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1808&r=ure |
| By: | Teresa C. Fort; Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott |
| Abstract: | We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine how US manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establishments, and regions from 1977 to 2012. We show that these data provide support for both trade- and technology-based explanations of the overall decline of employment over this period, while also highlighting the difficulties of estimating an overall contribution for each mechanism. Toward that end, we discuss how further analysis of these trends might yield sharper insights. |
| Keywords: | Employment ; Manufacturing ; Output ; Technology ; Trade |
| Date: | 2018–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-23&r=ure |
| By: | UNCTAD; World Bank |
| Keywords: | Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Labor - Skills Development and Labor Force Training Social Protections and Labor - Vocational & Technical Education Private Sector Development - Corporate Social Responsibility |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:29476&r=ure |
| By: | Marius Cristea; Codru?a Mare; Ciprian Moldovan; Andreea-Mirela China; Thomas Farole; Adina Vin?an; Jane Park; Keith Patrick Garrett; Marcel Ionescu-Heroiu |
| Keywords: | Communities and Human Settlements - Human Migrations & Resettlements Communities and Human Settlements - Peri-Urban Communities Poverty Reduction - Urban Partnerships & Poverty Urban Development - City Development Strategies Urban Development - National Urban Development Policies & Strategies Urban Development - Urban Economic Development |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:27874&r=ure |
| By: | Giuseppe Berlingieri (OECD); Sara Calligaris (OECD); Chiara Criscuolo (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The literature has established two robust stylised facts: (i) the existence of a firm size-wage premium; and (ii) a positive relationship between firm size and productivity. However, the existing evidence is mainly based on manufacturing data only. With manufacturing nowadays accounting for a small share of the economy, whether productivity, size, and wages are closely linked, and how tight this link is across sectors, is still an open question. Using a unique micro-aggregated dataset covering the whole economy in 17 countries over 1994-2012, this paper compares these relationships across sectors. While the size-wage and size-productivity premia are significantly weaker in market services compared to manufacturing, the link between wages and productivity is stronger. The combination of these results suggests that, in a service economy the “size-wage premium” becomes more a “productivity-wage premium”. These results have first-order policy implications for both workers and firms. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Size-Premium, Wages |
| JEL: | D2 E2 J3 |
| Date: | 2018–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2018/13-en&r=ure |
| By: | Ioannis Baraklianos (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Louafi Bouzouina (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Patrick Bonnel (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Hind Aissaoui (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État) |
| Date: | 2018–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01801379&r=ure |
| By: | Ioannis Baraklianos (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Louafi Bouzouina (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Ouassim Manout (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État); Patrick Bonnel (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État) |
| Date: | 2018–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01801448&r=ure |
| By: | Signe Rosenberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on house prices in the Scandinavian countries, using sign and zero restrictions in a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model, covering the central banks’ policy rate and balance sheet policies over a period of nearly 30 years. Expansionary shocks of the policy rate and the balance sheet both have a positive impact on house prices in the Scandinavian countries, but the effects vary greatly within each country. In all the three countries the effect of balance sheet shocks on house prices peaks higher and is more persistent than the response of policy rate shocks. In Sweden and Denmark the impact is more sluggish in case of balance sheet shocks while in Norway the speed of the reaction is similar in case of both types of monetary policy shocks. |
| Date: | 2018–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ttu:tuteco:44&r=ure |
| By: | Eric Denis (PARIS - GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In the Global South, vast swathes of periurban and agricultural land are being sold off and converted into financial windfalls. Éric Denis shows that the working classes also play a role in this commodification of land, giving rise to new means of producing the city. Moreover, this lust for land reveals these populations’ desire to see the city expand and reach their doorstep. |
| Keywords: | India,Urban Studies,Land Studies |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01780595&r=ure |
| By: | Janssen, Maarten |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the incentives of manufacturers to discriminate between exante symmetric retailers who compete for consumers with different search cost. By discriminating, a manufacturer indirectly screens searching consumers, creates more retail competition, increases its profits, but lowers consumer welfare. Low-cost retailers sell to a disproportionate share of low search cost consumers, providing strong incentives to compete; high-cost retailers also lower margins given their smaller customer base. For wholesale price discrimination to be an equilibrium outcome, some form of commitment is necessary. Legislation requiring sales at the recommended retail price serves as such a commitment device, making consumers worse off. |
| Keywords: | consumer search; double marginalization; Vertical Relations; Wholesale Price Discrimination. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12945&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | On average across OECD countries, 4.2% of 15-year-old students expect to work as teachers – a greater proportion than the share of teachers in the adult population. In many countries, 15-year-old students who expect to work as teachers have lower mathematics and reading scores than students who expect to work in other professions that, like teaching, require at least a university degree. However, data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills show that the numeracy skills of teachers tend to be similar to the numeracy skills of other degree holders. The skills gap between students who expect a career in teaching and those who expect a career as another type of professional is often larger in low-performing versus top-performing countries. Countries with higher teacher salaries (relative to GDP) and higher perceptions of the social value of the teaching profession have, on average, larger shares of students who expect to work as teachers. |
| Date: | 2018–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:22-en&r=ure |
| By: | Leight, Jessica (American University); Foarta, Dana (Stanford University); Pande, Rohini (Harvard University); Ralston, Laura (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Community targeting of vote payments--defined as the saturation of entire neighborhoods with cash prior to elections--is widespread in the developing world. In this paper, we utilize laboratory experiments conducted in the U.S. and Kenya to demonstrate that, relative to individual targeting, a vote-buying regime that distributes payments widely renders voters more tolerant of politician rent-seeking, and increases the level of politician rent-seeking observed in equilibrium. The most parsimonious model of preferences consistent with these patterns is a model in which both politicians and voters are characterized by multifaceted social preferences, encompassing reciprocity, altruism, and inequality aversion. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3613&r=ure |
| By: | Jones, Calvin |
| Abstract: | The internet and e-connectivity more generally are increasingly held to be an important element of business success. Evidence however suggests that the productive impacts of such technologies are contingent on factors that include firm size and sector, and human capital. It follows that if companies with these characteristics are unevenly distributed across space, the increasing importance of broadband in economic activity might impact unevenly on economic outcomes across space. We examine the Cardiff City-Region in South Wales, where the distribution of businesses and skills suggests that without policy intervention the roll out of broadband might further increase economic disparities between the relatively prosperous coastal belt and the poorer post-industrial hinterland. |
| Keywords: | City-regions; broadband; economic development; automation |
| JEL: | O1 O10 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86636&r=ure |