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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Rodrigue Bazame; Harun Tanrivermis |
| Abstract: | Since the first implementation of the Agrarian and Land Reform Act in Burkina Faso in 1984, urban development and housing policies have been important in the economic development strategies of the country and significant projects and programs have been enacted in the aim to improve households living in urban and rural settlements. Although the urbanization rate is one of the lowest in Africa, the country is experiencing a continual urban growth: From an urbanization rate of 12.7%in 1985, this rate is estimated to be at 31.5%in 2016. Furthermore, this urban growth is fundamentally demographic due the relatively high rate of population growth and the constantly increasing rural-urban migration. The lack of urban planning, infrastructure and convenient housing supply are among the most challenging issues in Burkina Faso urban development.The country experience in urban land use shows that in the 1950-2012 period 716,960 plots were produced, which cover 55,771 hectares for settlements and 19,463 hectares for urban roads. A comparison of the number of households in 2013 and the number of residential plots shows that there is a surplus of 57,133 units of plots, however, there are some disparities between the cities at the same time at the country level. Despite land allotment for housing production has been completed in cities, the government efforts in terms of investments in relevant infrastructure are utterly insufficient. Furthermore, a housing policy seemed to be inexistent in the country for long time: around 90% of houses are built by the owners without using a mortgage system and almost 4/5 of the existing housing supply do not have a legal proof or titles deeds. These issues and the squatting phenomenon common in the cities are interrelated with the real estate market, which is still embryonic in the country. The new housing program, in the scope of which the government is forecasting to build 40,000 houses units during the period 2016-2020 in all regions of the country through public-private partnership, is an opportunity to make up for lost time in the framework of the government’s housing policy responsibility. The aim of this study is to analyze the urban development and housing issues in Burkina Faso using national and international data within the framework of historical and current situation analysis. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso; housing issues; urban land development; Urban Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_389&r=ure |
| By: | Julie Bulteau (CEARC - Cultures, Environnements, Arctique, Représentations, Climat - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thierry Feuillet (LADYSS - Laboratoire dynamiques sociales et recomposition des espaces - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8, Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Rémy Le Boennec (Institut VEDECOM, LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec) |
| Abstract: | Innovative solutions have been implemented to promote sustainable mobility in urban areas. In the Nantes area (northwestern part of France), alternatives to single-occupant car use have increased in the past few years. In the urban area, there is an efficient public transport supply, including tramways and a " busway " (Bus Rapid Transit), as well as bike-sharing services. In periurban and rural areas, there are carpool areas, regional buses and the new " tram-train " lines. In this article, we focus on the impact on house prices of these " sustainable " transportation infrastructures and policies, in order to evaluate their values. The implicit price of these sustainable transport offers was estimated through hedonic price functions describing the Nantes urban and periurban/rural housing markets. Spatial regression models (SAR, SEM, SDM and GWR) were carried out to capture the effect of both spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity. The results show patterns of spatial heterogeneity of transportation offer implicit prices at two scales: (i) between urban and periurban/rural areas, as well as (ii) within each territory. In the urban area, the distance to such offers was significantly associated with house prices. These associations varied by type of transportation system (positive for tramway and railway stations and negative for bike-sharing stations). In periurban and rural areas, having a carpool area in a 1500-m buffer around the home was negatively associated with house prices, while having a regional bus station in a 500-m buffer was non-significant. Distance to the nearest railway station was negatively associated with house prices. These findings provide research avenues to help public policy-makers promote sustainable mobility and pave the way for more locally targeted interventions. |
| Keywords: | spatial heterogeneity,sustainable mobility,transport accessibility,geographically weighted regression,hedonic pricing method,spatial dependence |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01706911&r=ure |
| By: | Trofimov, Ivan D.; Md. Aris, Nazaria; C. D. Xuan, Dickson |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and macroeconomic and demographic determinants in Malaysia. In the years following the Asian financial crisis, property prices in Malaysia rose substantially, resulting in an affordability crisis and ultimately policy responses to the problem. Using unit root, Johansen-Juselius cointegration, VECM-based Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, and considering quarterly data that covers 2000-2015 period, we established that residential property price growth is principally driven by strong demographic performance and population growth and is backed by the low interest rate environment and rising consumer prices. Household income and level of GDP do not appear to contribute to property price growth. Certain distortions and asymmetries in the Malaysian real estate markets are documented: oversupply in the higher price segment of the market coupled with the lack of affordable housing in the lower price segment; household income growth lagging behind GDP and property price growth, thereby dampening housing demand; growing rental markets in major urban areas as a result of the affordability crisis; and a quality mismatch between buyers’ preferences and housing supply. |
| Keywords: | Property prices; housing; cointegration |
| JEL: | C22 R21 R30 R38 |
| Date: | 2018–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85819&r=ure |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing |
| Abstract: | Shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region may seem important only for that regional housing market. We provide evidence that such shocks can also affect housing markets in other regions. Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. We document that, at the national level, real oil price shocks account for 11% of the variability in real house price growth over time. At the regional level, we find that unexpected increases in the real price of oil raise real house prices not only in oil-producing regions, but also in other regions. We develop a theoretical model of the propagation of real oil price shocks across regions that helps understand this finding. The model differentiates between oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions and incorporates multiple sectors, trade between provinces, government redistribution, and consumer spending on fuel. We empirically confirm the model prediction that oil price shocks are transmitted to housing markets in non-oil-producing regions by the government redistribution of oil revenue and by increased interprovincial trade. |
| Keywords: | Canada; Housing; oil price; redistribution; regional heterogeneity; resource boom |
| JEL: | F43 Q33 Q43 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12845&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel F. Heuermann; Johannes F. Schmieder |
| Abstract: | We use the expansion of the high-speed rail network in Germany as a natural experiment to examine the causal effect of reductions in commuting time between regions on the commuting decisions of workers and their choices regarding where to live and where to work. We exploit three key features in this setting: i) investment in high-speed rail has, in some cases dramatically, reduced travel times between regions, ii) several small towns were connected to the high-speed rail network only for political reasons, and iii) high-speed trains have left the transportation of goods unaffected. Combining novel information on train schedules and the opening of high-speed rail stations with panel data on all workers in Germany, we show that a reduction in travel time by one percent raises the number of commuters between regions by 0.25 percent. This effect is mainly driven by workers changing jobs to smaller cities while keeping their place of residence in larger ones. Our findings support the notion that benefits from infrastructure investments accrue in particular to peripheral regions, which gain access to a large pool of qualified workers with a preference for urban life. We find that the introduction of high-speed trains led to a modal shift towards rail transportation in particular on medium distances between 150 and 400 kilometers. |
| JEL: | J61 R12 R23 R40 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24507&r=ure |
| By: | Flavia Curvelo Magdaniel |
| Abstract: | Innovation is a buzzword promoting urban development and many public/private resources are invested in developing particular areas. Since the late 1950s, campuses have been the most popular areas developed to stimulate innovation in many industrialised regions. Many campuses developed as isolated locations in the periphery of cities. With the increased urbanisation processes, some of these locations are already in the inner city or adjacent to urban areas. More recently, the perception of cities as the natural environments for innovation is leading towards an urban shift in innovation-driven area development.Either way, this practice has been influenced by the assumption that geographical proximity plays a central role in the creation, diffusion and application of knowledge, which is widely discussed in economic geography. Accordingly, there has been a theoretical debate on whether diverse or specialised environments are more favourable for innovation (i.e. cities or regional clusters respectively). Although ‘diversity’ is considered an essential aspect of innovation processes, the existing research explaining which type of environment is more beneficial to innovation is inconclusive. This ambivalence poses challenges for stakeholders involved in campus development. On the one hand, planners and developers of new areas struggle with location decisions since different locations have associated advantages and/or disadvantages in stimulating innovation. On the other hand, managers of existing campuses deal with implementing strategies to support their goal of stimulating innovation at chosen and/or given locations.This paper aims to support strategic decisions in the development of new and existing campuses intended to stimulate innovation based on different location alternatives. This paper assesses a planning tool that proposes relevant aspects to stimulate innovation in different locations (Curvelo Magdaniel, 2016). This tool is used to analyse and compare 39 campuses with different locations characteristics across industrialised countries.Findings reveal five types of location patterns in existing campuses developed to stimulate innovation. These patterns show differences in connectivity aspects outlined in the tool as relevant for innovation. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of this planning tool, which considers location as a relevant decision shaping campus development and other innovation-driven area developments. |
| Keywords: | Campuses; Innovation; Knowledge economy; Location; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_122&r=ure |
| By: | Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | How does the life cycle|namely, mortality risk and the expectation at birth of a rising age-profile of income and assets--impact house price dynamics? This paper investigates how equilibrium house prices respond to a tightening in credit constraints under two different but similarly calibrated models: one an infinite-horizon setting and the other a life-cycle environment. The main conclusion is that house price dynamics are magnified by the presence of life cycle features. Two primary explanations stand out: the distinction between stocks and flows of mortgage debt in the cross-section and the importance of gross housing tenure flows, i.e. churn. |
| Keywords: | House Prices, Mortgage Debt, Credit Constraints, Life Cycle Models |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E44 G11 G12 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1807&r=ure |
| By: | Amarasinghe, Ashani; Hodler, Roland; Raschky, Paul A.; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | The aggregate economic impact of any developmental project depends on its effects within the chosen administrative region as well as its economic spillovers into other regions. However, little is known about how these spillovers propagate through geographic, ethnic and road networks. In this paper, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the role of these networks in the spatial diffusion of local economic shocks. We develop a network model that shows how a district's level of prosperity is related to its position in the network. The network model's first-order conditions are used to derive an econometric model of spatial spillovers that we estimate using a panel of 5,944 districts from 53 African countries over the period 1997-2013. To identify the causal effect of spatial diffusion, we exploit cross sectional variation in the location of mineral mines and exogenous time variation in world mineral prices. Our results show that road and ethnic connectivity are particularly important factors for diffusing economic spillovers over longer distances. We then use the estimated parameters from the econometric model to calculate the key player centralities, which determine which districts are key in propagating local economic shocks across Africa. We further show how counterfactual exercises based on these estimates and the underlying network structure can inform us about the potential gains from policies that increase economic activity in specific districts or improve road connectivity between districts. |
| Keywords: | economic development; key player centrality; Natural resources; networks; spatial spillovers; sub-Saharan Africa.; Transportation |
| JEL: | O13 O55 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12854&r=ure |
| By: | Gaubert, Cécile |
| Abstract: | The distribution of firms in space is far from uniform. Some locations host the most productive large firms, while others barely attract any. In this paper, I study the sorting of heterogeneous firms across locations and analyze policies designed to attract firms to particular regions (place-based policies). I first propose a theory of the distribution of heterogeneous firms in a variety of sectors across cities. Aggregate TFP and welfare depend on the extent of agglomeration externalities produced in cities and on how heterogeneous firms sort across them. The distribution of city sizes and the sorting patterns of firms are uniquely determined in equilibrium. This allows me to structurally estimate the model, using French firm-level data. I find that nearly half of the observed productivity advantage of large cities is due to firm sorting. I use the estimated model to quantify the general equilibrium effects of place-based policies. I find that policies that decrease local congestion lead to a new spatial equilibrium with higher aggregate TFP and welfare. In contrast, policies that subsidize under-developed areas have negative aggregate effects. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12835&r=ure |
| By: | Justine JingJing Wang; Alla Koblyakova; Piyush Tiwari; John S. Croucher |
| Abstract: | Background/Importance: In the most recent Australian housing boom starting from 2012 till present, prices soared. As at 2016, there is an emergence of a four speed regional property market. Sydney and Melbourne are at top growth of 15%while Perth had experienced downturns of 4.3%(Knight, 2017). It is important to attain understandings of the regional house price dynamics and their spillover effects.Research questions: This paper poses two research questions:RQ1.Is there house price spill over effects among the largest four cities in Australia?RQ2.What are the regional variations between house prices and macroeconomic variables in the largest four cities in Australia?Research methodology: The paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as Variance decomposition test, Generalised impulse response test, Granger causality, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), to provide an in depth understanding of the regional house price dynamics in Australia.Findings: The empirical results presented reveal Sydney as the dominant source of the spillover of house prices in the four major cities. It finds changes in house prices in Sydney result in contagious spillover impacts in the house prices of other three main cities due to the transmission mechanism of information. Melbourne house price variance does not come from itself both over the long run and over the short run, which is largely influenced by the contagious spillover from other regions. Spillover effects are identified in these four major housing markets.Empirical results present evidence that long run relationships exist between various macroeconomic variables and house prices in these cities although heterogeneity was identified.Originality and value: The foremost contribution of this paper is that it is the first rigorous study of regional house price dynamics in Australia including thorough analyses on macroeconomic relationships and spill over effects both. Additionally, the data set renders the study of particular interest, because it incorporates an analysis of the most recent housing boom (2012–2015 in the datasets). |
| Keywords: | Interest rates; Long run equilibrium; macroeconomic; Spill over |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_382&r=ure |
| By: | Iwaisako, Tokuo; Ono, Arito; Saito, Amane; Tokuda, Hidenobu |
| Abstract: | Using Japanese household micro survey data for the period 2000–2015, this study examines the effects of home ownership on household stock holdings. To disentangle the effect of housing assets (land value) and mortgage debt on a household’s portfolio of stocks as a share of their liquid financial assets, we apply the instrumental variable approach proposed by Chetty et al. (2017) that employs differences in average land price indices across housing markets in the year in which household portfolios are measured and those in the year in which the house was purchased. Our estimates suggest that an exogenous increase in land value (while holding mortgage debt constant) increases the portfolio of stocks, while an increase in mortgage debt (while holding land value constant) reduces it. We also find that an increase in land value and mortgage debt (while holding home equity constant) does not affect the portfolio of stocks, but increases the repayment of mortgage debt. |
| Keywords: | housing, home equity, mortgage debt, portfolio choice |
| JEL: | D14 G11 R21 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:remfce:77&r=ure |
| By: | Jan De Graaff |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that maintaining a low crime rate is one of the government’s major responsibilities in order to ensure the attractiveness of cities. Furthermore, the cost of crime is considered to be quickly capitalized into housing markets serving as an early warning sign of neighbourhood transition. Various studies apply hedonic modelling to investigate to what extend different kinds of crime are capitalized into housing markets. This study follows a similar approach and applies a time fixed effect model on a small-scale panel data set of Hamburg city quarters. During the past decade or so some new aspects have been added to this field of research as most hedonic models treat crime as an exogeneous variable. However, the literature has stressed the fact that crime should be considered rather as an endogenous variable. Relative to the total number of empirical studies on crime, only a few treat crime as endogenous applying valid instrumental variable approaches. Additionally, most studies are based on US data, manily due to data availability. Other studies that use data outside the US use rather large-scale data on city, state or country level. This data set is collected from various public sources and applies familiar panel data models including an instrumental variable approach to account for the endogeneity of crime on a non-US data set. The land values of Hamburg are based on the sales-price collection of the governmental authorities and cover the entire city on a parcel level. The data is available for 6 consecutive years in total and can be filtered among others per dominant usage type of each parcel. The crime data is collected on a quarter level for the same periods and contains information about the crime level, the clearance rate and 9 different types of crime. Additionally, several socio-economic control variables on the city quarter level can be included. The literature shows that in general changes of crime generate better results than levels of crime. Hence, we investigate a time fixed effect model regressing the changes of crime on the changes of land values for the respective periods. As instrumental variables, we use the density of public spaces and lags of the explanatory variable to account for the endogeneity. The preliminary results show a significant negative effect of crime on land values. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Housing Markets; Housing Prices; Panel Data |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_124&r=ure |
| By: | Iammarino, Simona; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Regional economic divergence has become a threat to economic progress, social cohesion and political stability in Europe. Market processes and policies that are supposed to spread prosperity and opportunity are no longer sufficiently effective. The evidence points to the existence of several different modes of regional economic performance in Europe, responding to different development challenges and opportunities. Both mainstream and heterodox theories have gaps in their ability to explain the existence of these different regional trajectories and the weakness of the convergence processes among them. Therefore, a different approach is required, one that strengthens Europe's strongest regions but develops new approaches to promote opportunity in industrial declining and less-developed regions. There is ample new theory and evidence to support such an approach, which we have labelled 'place-sensitive distributed development policy'. |
| Keywords: | economic divergence; European Union.; inequality; place-sensitive development; regions |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12841&r=ure |
| By: | Ingrid Gould Ellen (New York University); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the introduction to the special issue on Race and the City in the Journal of Housing Economics in 2018. The paper surveys relevant topics on racial and ethnic discrimination and residential segregation, and provides a more detailed discussion of the specific papers in the special issue. The paper primarily focuses on the literatures on discrimination in housing, on-line markets and policing. In terms of racial segregation, the paper discusses work related to the pattern of residential segregation and the causes and consequences of segregation. |
| Keywords: | Race, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Segregation, City, Urban |
| JEL: | J15 R20 R30 R50 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-03&r=ure |
| By: | Pau Rabanal |
| Abstract: | During the last decade, Hong Kong SAR has experienced a large increase in house prices and credit, prompting the authorities to respond with several rounds of tightening macroprudential rules and increasing stamp duty taxes. This paper provides a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Hong Kong SAR and analyzes the effectiveness of these measures, and finds that they have helped reduce house price appreciation and household leverage. A baseline small open economy real business cycle model is extended by including a housing sector, financial frictions, foreign demand for the domestic housing stock, and is estimated using Bayesian methods and data for Hong Kong SAR between 1996 and 2017. The paper finds that, without these policies, house prices would have been 10.5 percent higher, and the household credit-GDP ratio 14 percent higher. |
| Date: | 2018–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/90&r=ure |
| By: | Michiel Bijlsma (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Remco Mocking (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of changes in house prices on savings using administrative panel data on Dutch owner-occupying and renting households over the period 2006-2013. We analyze the immediate response as well as the response aggregated over several years. We find a marginal propensity to save (MPS) out of housing wealth in the short-run between 0 and -0.05, while the long-run effect ranges from -0.02 to -0.13. Younger homeowners consistently respond more strongly both in the short and the long-run, while pre-crisis leverage has a non-homogeneous effect in the short-run and no effect in the long-run. We only find a small, significant, and positive shortrun effect for old renters and no effect for all other groups of renters, suggesting that our results are not driven by common causality. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:346&r=ure |
| By: | Kleinepier, Tom (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research on neighborhood effects has increasingly focused on how long children have lived in a deprived neighborhood during childhood (duration), but has typically ignored when in childhood the exposure occurred (timing) and whether circumstances were improving or deteriorating (sequencing). Using Dutch register data, we applied sequence analysis to simultaneously capture duration, timing, and sequencing of exposure to neighborhood (dis)advantage in childhood. Compared to children who lived in a deprived neighborhood throughout childhood, we found that children who were exposed to neighborhood deprivation only during adolescence were equally likely to become a teenage parent and were more likely to drop out of school. Unexpectedly, children who lived in an affluent neighbor-hood throughout childhood were most likely to engage in delinquent behavior. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood effects, temporal dynamics, childhood, adolescence, problem behavior, sequence analysis |
| JEL: | I30 J60 P46 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11397&r=ure |
| By: | Tom Daamen; Erik Louw |
| Abstract: | Seaport regions are the most urbanized and challenging places on the planet. Home to the highest concentrations of human enterprise and diversity, seaport regions offer the best conditions for cities and industries to develop and create economic as well as social wealth. In Europe, many seaport regions accommodate economic clusters and industries that need to innovate and transform in order to survive and contribute to a prosperous port as well as a liveable city—two goals that are often at odds with each other in seaport regions across the union. The innovation and transformation needed in seaport regions demand new planning approaches and governance arrangements on the interplay between economic and spatial conditions. At the geographical centre of such arrangements lies the so-called port-city interface: waterfront zones that serve as areas of transition between the services and amenities-based urban economy on the one hand, and the production and distribution-based business of the port on the other. The usual planning and development approach to these areas is port-to-urban transformation. In this approach, former places of production become ‘places of consumption’ characterised by upmarket property development and iconic architecture—transformation projects that frequently yield criticism with regard to the sustainability of their outcomes in economic, social as well as environmental terms. Throughout the past decade, it has been observed that responsible authorities in seaport cities have started to reconsider the transformation-oriented planning and development approach to their respective waterfront zones. This reassessment seems influenced by progress in academic understandings of the European port-city interface in tangible as well as more elusive—but no less significant—terms. Authoritative policy advice organisations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Association for Cities and Ports (IACP) have also adopted conceptualisations of the port-city interface that promote sustainable planning and development approaches to waterfront zones. This ERES paper revisits, updates and expands upon a 2007 paper on the sustainable development of the European port-city interface. Adopting an interdisciplinary perspective, we will draw together and assess the—largely case study-based—body of academic literature on the changing European port-city interface and the related phenomenon of waterfront |
| Keywords: | Planning; Port-city interface; Waterfront developments |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_304&r=ure |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Victor Lavy; Santiago Pérez |
| Abstract: | We study the short and long-term spillover effects of a pay reform that substantially increased the returns to schooling in Israeli kibbutzim. This pay reform, which induced kibbutz students to improve their academic achievements during high school, spilled over to non-kibbutz members who attended schools with these kibbutz students. In the short run, peers of kibbutz students improved their high school outcomes and shifted to courses with higher financial returns. In the medium and long run, peers completed more years of postsecondary schooling and increased their earnings. We discuss three main spillover channels: diversion of teachers’ instruction time towards peers, peer effects from improved schooling performance of kibbutz students, and the transmission of information about the returns to schooling. While each of these channels likely contributed to improving the outcomes of peers, we provide suggestive evidence that the estimates are more consistent with the effects operating mainly through transmission of information. |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24515&r=ure |
| By: | Paul Verstraten (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Gerard Verweij (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Peter Zwaneveld (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the spatial decay function of agglomeration economies is much more complex than is often assumed in the agglomeration literature. We provide insight into this issue by analyzing a nationwide and spatially rich wage panel. The key finding is that wages and urbanization are not significantly related on short distances ( This article is revised on February 28th 2018. The revised version (Discussion Paper 376) can be found here . This positive effect attenuates across geographic space and becomes insignificant after 40-80km. This non-monotone relation between wages and distance to economic mass is in line with recently observed trend towards employment decentralization, because it suggests that agglomeration economies on short distances, i.e. in city centers, are offset by congestion externalities. Additionally, this paper finds no evidence that foreign economic mass affects wages in the Netherlands, which suggests that national borders are still a substantial barrier for economic interaction. |
| JEL: | R12 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:342&r=ure |
| By: | Maria EL KHDARI; Babacar SARR |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how decentralization affects poverty, vulnerability, and inequality in Morocco, in the context of ongoing regionalization reforms. We use different non-parametric approaches to assess spending efficiency of Moroccan municipalities and regions over the period 2005-2009. The results indicate that the efficiency of spending in improving pro-poor outcomes is dependent on the fiscal autonomy of subnational governments. While the impact of transfer dependency is not statistically significant, more granular data show that formula-based (unconditional) transfers significantly improve spending efficiency when the opposite is true for ad-hoc (conditional) transfers. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of political decentralization and find that local spending is less efficient in regions where municipal governments have a greater responsibility for spending compared to the regional government. This finding also holds in more fragmented regions with a high number of municipalities. Finally, we test whether there is an electoral budget cycle in Morocco and find that spending efficiency decreases the year of local elections, but increases with the level of education of elected officials. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, Morocco, Poverty, Vulnerability, Inequality, Public spending efficiency, Data envelopment analysis, Partial Frontier Analysis. |
| JEL: | H7 C14 H5 C23 I3 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1919&r=ure |
| By: | Petkov, Ivan |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the notion that changes in flood risk will have a minimal impact on population because of the availability of insurance and that most of the effect, if any, will be borne out by the real estate market. Insurance premiums even when subsidized are a cost that a household will need to pay with the increase in flood risk. The evidence suggests that flood events, historical and contemporaneous, play a role in the determination of the local perceived flood risk. Attractive communities that have positive growth before the flood surprise are hardest hit. They see a persistent 1.4\% dip in population with a 0.7\% decrease in the pre-flood trend. Flooding does not affect population in the rest of the high surprise locations. Instead, they see close to 4\% drop real estate values with the biggest effect among higher tier housing. There is also evidence that flood incidence in these communities is higher among the low-income population as suggested by relief payments by FEMA. |
| Keywords: | Population, Flood Surprises, Climate Change Real Estate, Natural Disasters |
| JEL: | J61 Q54 R11 R30 |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85759&r=ure |
| By: | Cerqua, Augusto; Pellegrini, Guido |
| Abstract: | Regional inequalities are large and have widened during the Great Recession. As they prompt people and economic activities to migrate from lagging regions, central governments around the world transfer large amounts of resources in order to prevent these phenomena from occurring. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the most extensive and long-lived experiment of income redistribution across regions and countries, i.e., the EU regional policy, at a time of economic crisis. Exploiting geographic discontinuities in funds eligibility and using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we analyze comprehensive data on all publicly funded Italian projects at the municipality level. We find a positive and significant impact on employment and number of plants in the least developed regions. However, the impact turns largely negligible when the gap between more and less intensively treated areas is relatively small. Moreover, the EU regional policy appears not to have had any effect on local average income. |
| Keywords: | EU regional policy, spatial regression discontinuity design, recession, municipalities |
| JEL: | C21 H25 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85621&r=ure |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | The farmer share of retail prices is shown to be about 16 percent, corresponding to about 84 percent of a distribution share, on average across agricultural products and regions within Turkey. The share of transportation costs in retail prices is only about 7 percent, while the share of retail margins is about 77 percent of retail prices. The dispersion of retail prices across regions is shown to be mostly due to local wages and variable markups, while the contribution of traded-input prices is relatively small. Accordingly, the high dispersion of farmer prices across locations is not reflected in the dispersion of retail prices due to the high contribution of retail margins. These retail margins are also shown to account for about one third of the consumer welfare dispersion across regions and more than half of the consumer welfare dispersion across products. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Prices, Farmer Share, Distribution Share, Retail Margins, Consumer Welfare Dispersion |
| JEL: | L81 Q11 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:1802&r=ure |
| By: | Erwin Heurkens |
| Abstract: | The initiation of ‘pilots’ in urban development is often a result of changing contextual circumstances like economic market conditions or new planning legislation requiring other solutions. Pilots require actors to innovate in terms of designing plans, handling planning procedures, managing development processes, and constructing real estate. They are often aimed at effectiveness, corresponding with the privatisation of planning powers witnessed in Western countries (Hobma & Heurkens, 2015). Also pilots urge actors to discover new ways of working through formal public-private agreements and informal processes of organisational change. This research investigates to what extent a brownfield redevelopment pilot project called Theo Koomenbuurt in Amsterdam has been effective in achieving its objectives, and whether the pilot’s privatisation aspects have hindered the institutionalisation of organisational learning (Wiseman, 2007).In the pilot a housing association and the municipality applied three privatisation-oriented changes aimed at accelerating planning and development processes. First, a separate ‘spatial design quality team’ was set up to judge spatial-esthetic matters normally the responsibility of a municipal quality commission. Second, a flexible land-use plan and spatial vision were created to accommodate changing market needs. Third, ‘private quality safeguarding’, examining building plans and monitoring construction in accordance to the Building Ordinance, substituted the formerly public controlling role. The evaluation indicates that process acceleration took place and was considered effective (Heurkens, 2017). However, the municipal stance towards the pilot’s privatisation aspects, partly created by occurring market failures, hindered a process of institutionalisation of organisational learning. The case shows that the potential pilot impact to change urban development practices foremost requires informal organisational changes that support formal legal arrangements.Heurkens, E. (2017), Effectieve afsprakenkaders voor gebiedsontwikkeling, Delft: Praktijkleerstoel Gebiedsontwikkeling TU Delft.Hobma, F. & Heurkens, E. (2015), ‘Netherlands’, In S. Mitschang (ed.) Privatisation of Planning Powers and Urban Infrastructure (pp. 121-151), Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang Verlag.Wiseman, E. (2007), ‘The institutionalization of organizational learning: A neoinstitutional perspective’, In Proceedings of OLKC 2007 - "Learning Fusion" (pp. 1112-1136). |
| Keywords: | institutionalisation; Organisational Learning; Privatisation; public-private partnerships; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_286&r=ure |
| By: | Felfe, Christina (University of St. Gallen, CESifo); Kocher, Martin (University of Vienna, IHS Vienna, University of Gothenburg); Rainer, Helmut (University of Munich, ifo Institute, CESifo); Saurer, Judith (ifo Institute); Siedler, Thomas (Universitaet Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with racial, ethnic, or cultural differences, increases the social distance between individuals, which is widely believed to limit the scope of cooperation. A central question, then, is how to bridge such divides. We study the effects of a major citizenship reform in Germany — the introduction of birthright citizenship on January 1, 2000 — in terms of inter-group cooperation and social segregation between immigrant and native youth. We hypothesize that endowing immigrant children with citizenship rights levels the playing field between them and their native peers, with possible spill-overs into the domain of social interactions. Our unique setup connects a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment based on the investment game with the citizenship reform by exploiting the quasi-random assignment of citizenship rights around its cut-off date. Immigrant youth born prior to the reform display high levels of cooperation toward other immigrants, but low levels of cooperation toward natives. The introduction of birthright citizenship caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. This effect is accompanied by a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, immigration, trust, experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D90 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:340&r=ure |
| By: | Petrović, Ana (Delft University of Technology); Manley, David (University of Bristol); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Theory behind neighbourhood effects suggests that different geographies and scales affect individual outcomes. We argue that neighbourhood effects research needs to break away from the tyranny of neighbourhood and consider alternative ways to measure the wider socio-spatial context of people, placing individuals at the centre of the approach. We review theoretical and empirical approaches to place and space from a multitude of disciplines and the geographical scopes of neighbourhood effects mechanisms. Ultimately, we suggest ways in which micro-geographic data can be used to operationalise socio-spatial context for neighbourhood effects, where data pragmatism should be supplanted by a theory-driven data exploration. |
| Keywords: | neighbourhood effects, socio-spatial context, micro-geographic data, bespoke neighbourhoods, spatial scale |
| JEL: | I30 J60 P46 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11416&r=ure |
| By: | Bond, Timothy N. (Purdue University); Mumford, Kevin J. (Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of exposure to teacher pay-for-performance programs on adult outcomes. We construct a comprehensive data set of schools which have implemented teacher performance pay programs across the United States since 1986, and use our data to calculate the fraction of students by race in each grade and in each state who are affected by a teacher performance pay program in a given year. We then calculate the expected years of exposure for each race-specific birth state-grade cohort in the American Community Survey. Cohorts with more exposure are more likely to graduate from high school and earn higher wages as adults. The positive effect is concentrated in grades 1-3 and on programs that targeted schools with a higher fraction of students who are eligible for free and reduced lunch. |
| Keywords: | teacher performance pay, adult outcomes |
| JEL: | I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11432&r=ure |
| By: | Michal Burzynski (CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg); Christoph Deuster (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, UNINOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Frédéric Docquier (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles]) |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the recent evolution of the geographic distribution of talent, and studies its implications for development inequality. Assuming the continuation of recent educational and immigration policies, it produces integrated projections of income, population, urbanization and human capital for the 21st century. To do so, we develop and parameterize a two-sector, two-class, world economy model that endogenizes education decisions, population growth, labor mobility, and income disparities across countries and across regions/sectors (agriculture vs. nonagriculture). We find that the geography of talent matters for global inequality, whatever the size of technological externalities. Low access to education and the sectoral allocation of talent have substantial impacts on inequality, while the effect of international migration is small. We conclude that policies targeting access to all levels of education and sustainable urban development are vital to reduce demographic pressures and global inequality in the long term. |
| Keywords: | inequality,growth,Human capital,migration,urbanization |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01743751&r=ure |
| By: | Albert, Christoph; Monras, Joan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causes and effects of the spatial distribution of immigrants across US cities. We document that: a) immigrants concentrate in large, high-wage, expensive cities, b) the earnings gap between immigrants and natives is higher in larger, more expensive cities, and c) immigrants consume less locally than natives. In order to explain these findings, we develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model in which immigrants consume a fraction of their income in their countries of origin. Thus, immigrants care not only about local prices, but also about price levels in their home countries. This gives them a comparative advantage relative to natives for living in high-wage, high-price, high-productivity cities, where they also accept lower wages than natives. These incentives are stronger for immigrants coming from lower-price index countries of origin. We rely on immigrant heterogeneity to estimate the model. With the estimated model, we show that current levels of immigration have reduced economic activity in smaller, less productive cities by around 5 percent, while they have expanded it in large, productive cities by around 6 percent. This has increased total aggregate output per worker by around 0.3 percent. We also discuss the welfare implications of these results. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; location choices; spatial equilibrium |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12842&r=ure |
| By: | Sander van Veldhuizen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Bart Voogt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Benedikt Vogt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Andrea Morescalchi (JRC) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of negative home equity on job mobility. Panel fixed effects estimation is carried out by making use of Dutch administrative panel in the period 2006-2011. To control for self-selection into negative home equity, we consider homeowners who fall into negative home equity because of an exogenous price decline in their house. We compare them to homeowners with positive equity. Negative home equity has a moderate negative effect on the probability to switch jobs. If a household plunges into negative home equity, then the head of the household is about 5.2% less likely to switch jobs. Read also: Discussion Paper 323 'Negative Home Equity and Household Mobility: Evidence from Administrative Data' . |
| JEL: | D1 J6 R2 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:345&r=ure |
| By: | Sergey Kichko (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Larger cities typically give rise to two effects working in opposite directions: tougher competition among firms and higher production costs. Using an urban model with substitutability of production factors and pro-competitive effects, we study how market outcome responds to city population size, land-use regulation and commuting costs. For industries with small input of land, larger cities host more firms which set lower prices whereas larger cities accommodate more firms which charge higher prices in industries with intermediate land share in production. Furthermore, for industries with high input share of land, larger cities allocate fewer firms with higher product prices. We show that softer land-use regulation and/or lower commuting costs reinforce pro-competitive effects making larger cities more attractive for residents via lower product prices and broader variety for a larger number of industries. |
| Keywords: | pro-competitive effects; production structure; land-use regulations; urban costs; pricing; city size. |
| JEL: | R13 R32 R52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:190/ec/2018&r=ure |
| By: | Shiv Prasad Singh |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies are saddled with deficient core infrastructure of housing more particularly for lower income category, India is no different either. Efforts of past 50 years to create a sustainable housing stock for lower income households has not yielded desirable results. Several policy initiatives by past and present governments did show resolve to address this issue conclusively but they did not succeed as well. Although within federal structure of India, land and housing rests with respective state (provincial) governments who act as per their own political ideology that results in inconsistent approach sending confusing signals to real estate industry. Certainly this is an unhealthy situation and it has so far kept the real estate industry at bay and their participation has been minimal in lower income housing. So what is going wrong? We have demand for millions of affordable houses (size below 600 sq.ft. of builtup area), we have several policy initiatives by state and federal governments, we have a hyper active real estate industry, we have notable intellectual pool to address engineering and other technical issues, but India is making a very slow progress in supply of affordable housing supply despite ambitious target of building 20 million houses by 2022, in urban area. There are two critical pieces of puzzle, first – real estate industry has not embraced affordable housing sector despite understanding the opportunity, second – lack of mortgage finance to target customers. In last five years there has been significant changes in both these fronts that might make affordable housing darling asset of real estate industry. Author intends to analyze current policy regime towards affordable housing, with focus on its connect with real estate industry. Author would highlight the roadblocks on highway of affordable housing supply with market perspective and how improved access to credit for target customers would accelerate the process of housing supply. Author would document the real time opinion of industry and target customers through primary survey whereas policy review would be based on secondary research. Research would conclude with an appropriate business case based on market fundamentals to speed up affordable housing supply in north India. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; business madel; Housing Policy; Mortgage Finance; Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_144&r=ure |
| By: | Richard Koss; Xinrui Shi |
| Abstract: | The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur. |
| Date: | 2018–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/89&r=ure |
| By: | Nicolas Duran |
| Abstract: | The largest natural gas field in Europe is located in the north of the Netherlands. Extraction from it has taken place since 1963, which has induced small earthquakes. Although this was known with fair certainty beforehand, whether households ever anticipated the region to become a riskier place to live at has not been determined.Earthquakes can damage households’ houses structures, increasing maintenance costs. Additionally, they increase risk awareness from living in a prone to earthquakes area. Reducing effects on housing prices attributed to earthquakes can therefore be sourced on the anticipation of higher maintenance costs, or on increasing risk perceptions. The gas-extracting company already compensates for damages done on houses; therefore, foreseen increasing costs should not affect their price. Hence, by studying how earthquakes affect housing prices we focus on households’ willingness to pay to avoid living at a riskier place.We explore this question by means of spatial hedonic models for housing prices in the three most northern provinces of the Netherlands, namely Drenthe, Friesland, and Groningen. Most realtors in the Netherlands set asking prices by fitting a hedonic model with data on previously transacted houses. This is one of the typically argued sources of spatial dependency in the housing market. We therefore employ a spatio-temporal-similarity weights matrix that mimics this asking price setting procedure, and use it to test the fit of several spatial econometric specifications.We make use of detailed data on more than 250.000 transactions between 1993 and 2014. We are able to control for over 40 characteristics of the house and amenities provided at the neighborhood level. Moreover, we control for population increase and the time on the market by means of instrumental variables. To assess the earthquakes’ effect we computed the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) at each house’s geographical point location for every earthquake that took place in the 5 years prior to the house’s sale.We find no significant effect for PGV in the 5 years prior to the house sale on its price, unless the house was sold during or after the year 2012. In August of said year the largest ever-recorded earthquake hit the region and awareness of them grew noticeably. A house sold during or after 2012 would be transacted for a price almost 4%lower for every percentage point increase in seismic activity. The result is robust to several specifications. |
| Keywords: | Earthquakes; Housing Prices; Spatial hedonic models |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_18&r=ure |
| By: | Austin Zwick (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Fracking has revolutionized international oil and gas markets practically overnight, but its impact on local public finance and governance have largely been overlooked. While operating under federal and state constraints, the key ongoing policy question is whether and to what extent local governments can – and should – have the power to manage the industry’s effects on their communities. This IMFG Paper explores the fiscal health risks associated with the industry, its local revenue generation implications, and what local governments can do to address the spatial and temporal mismatches between the two. As the industry expands internationally, including to Canada, lessons from the United States can inform future regulatory response in other places. |
| Keywords: | fracking, resource extraction, boom-bust economies, municipal finance |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H79 Q33 Q38 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:38&r=ure |
| By: | Haoran Yang; Frédéric Dobruszkes; Jiaoe Wang; Martin Dijst; Patrick Wiik |
| Abstract: | Although the Chinese high-speed railway (HSR) entered the transportation market at a late stage in 2003, its networks have become the world's largest and are currently even growing faster than airline networks. Using the 2013 origin/destination (O/D) passenger flow data instead of commonly used scheduled data, we compare the spatial configurations of the Chinese national urban system in both high-speed railway and airline networks. The results show that HSR-dominant cities and links are located mainly in the middle and eastern parts of China, offering regional connections, whereas air-dominant cities and links are evenly distributed across the whole of China and predominantly offer interregional connections. This is mainly because HSR networks are more focused on connections to cities with high socio-economic performance and are more restricted by the geographical distance between linked cities than the airline networks. Furthermore, HSR networks promote agglomeration economies within cities located along the trunk lines in specific regions, whereas airline networks contribute to more balanced urban development in China. These dimensions indicate that the configuration of urban systems in HSR networks differ largely from that of air networks when measured in terms of passenger flows. |
| Keywords: | High-speed railways (HSR); Airlines; Passenger flows; China; Urban systems |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/269363&r=ure |
| By: | Cáceres-Delpiano, Julio (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Giolito, Eugenio P. (Universidad Alberto Hurtado) |
| Abstract: | Using several data sources from Chile, we study the impact of school choice at the time of starting primary school. To study the contribution of school choice, we exploit the combination of multiple cutoffs defining the minimum age at entry, and the difference across municipalities in the composition of the schools according to these cutoffs. Children living in the same municipality, and whose birthday differs by a few days not only have their incentives to delay school entry affected, but also face, in case of not delaying, a different set of schools. We show that a larger set of schools increases the probability of starting in a better school, measured by non high-stakes examination. Moreover, this quasi-experimental variation reveals an important reduction in the likelihood of dropping out, and a reduction in the probability that a child would switch schools during her/his school life. Secondly, for a subsample of students who have completed high school, we observe that a larger school choice at the start of primary school increases students' chance of taking the national examination required for higher education and the likelihood of being enrolled in a selective college. |
| Keywords: | age requirements, school choice |
| JEL: | A21 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11420&r=ure |
| By: | Yaoxuan Huang |
| Abstract: | In recent years, more and more attentions are paid to the second-tier cities especially the satellite towns around the first-tier metropolis. Foshan is a city located in the Pearl River Delta, with its city center only 18 kilometers away from the center of Guangzhou (the third biggest city within China). As the booming of the population in Guangzhou and thus the residential needs, more people choose to live in the city of Foshan and commute to Guangzhou through the Guang-Fo express. Therefore, the residential market of Foshan becomes not only attractive to the local developers but also a potential market to open up for the others. It leads us to wonder the status and strategies of different developers entering such a growing residential market. Previous research going over the residential market mainly reveals from the demand side, or say, the aspect of the individual buyers and sellers within the second-hand market. However, limited studies tell stories from the supply side of the residential properties. To better understand the housing supply, it is important to look at the first hand transactions between the developers and the buyers, especially the presale process. Presale is adopted as a prevailing practice in real estate markets of China including the city of Foshan. This process can be seen as the only market in the developers’ domain since the developers unilaterally price their properties before the spot-sale. Therefore, the pricing mechanism to a great extent reflects the strategies of the developers when they enter into a market and compete with others. This study classifies different developers and investigates their decision-making mechanism during presale. In addition to the pricing mechanism, the traditional project features would also be considered in the study. Presale prices of more than a thousand of residential projects in recent years are disclosed by the Foshan real estate bureau and used in this study, in which tens of various developers are involved. Making use of the Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR), this study incorporates the spatial connections and dependence among real estate projects and generates an evaluation of the impacts for each of the projects. It is of particular interest and significance to the field of housing studies and urban planning as it provides valuable implications about competitive development strategies for developers, policymakers and urban planners in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Competitive intensity; GWR; Presale; Real estate developer; Residential markets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_289&r=ure |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Matthew Plosser; Philipp Schnabl; James Vickery |
| Abstract: | Technology-based ("FinTech") lenders increased their market share of U.S. mortgage lending from 2% to 8% from 2010 to 2016. Using market-wide, loan-level data on U.S. mortgage applications and originations, we show that FinTech lenders process mortgage applications about 20% faster than other lenders, even when controlling for detailed loan, borrower, and geographic observables. Faster processing does not come at the cost of higher defaults. FinTech lenders adjust supply more elastically than other lenders in response to exogenous mortgage demand shocks, thereby alleviating capacity constraints associated with traditional mortgage lending. In areas with more FinTech lending, borrowers refinance more, especially when it is in their interest to do so. We find no evidence that FinTech lenders target marginal borrowers. Our results suggest that technological innovation has improved the efficiency of financial intermediation in the U.S. mortgage market. |
| JEL: | G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24500&r=ure |
| By: | Enid Slack; Almos T. Tassonyi (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | The poor state of municipal infrastructure is the subject of frequent complaint in Canada. Roads are congested, transit systems are in need of major investments, bridges are crumbling, and water treatment plants need to be replaced. Municipalities continue to seek financial assistance from the federal and provincial governments, but are transfers really the best way to pay for municipal capital investments? This paper provides an overview of how municipal infrastructure is funded in Canada with an emphasis on the extent to which the users of infrastructure pay the costs. The paper concludes that although user fees are increasing in Canadian municipalities, better pricing is needed to link those who benefit with those who pay for municipal infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | municipal finance, user fees, infrastructure finance |
| JEL: | H54 H71 H72 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:34&r=ure |
| By: | Cilliers, Jacobus; Kasirye, Ibrahim; Leaver, Clare; Serneels, Pieter; Zeitlin, Andrew |
| Abstract: | To achieve the twin objectives of incentivizing agent performance and providing information for planning purposes, public sector organizations often rely on reports by local monitors that are costly to verify. Received wisdom has it that attaching financial incentives to these reports will result in collusion, and undermine both objectives. Simple bargaining logic, however, suggests the reverse: pay for locally monitored performance could incentivize desired behavior and improve information. To investigate this issue, we conducted a randomized controlled trial in Ugandan primary schools that explored how incentives for teachers could be designed when based on local monitoring by head teachers. Our experiment randomly varied whether head teachers' reports of teacher attendance were tied to teacher bonus payments or not. We find that local monitoring on its own is ineffective at improving teacher attendance. However, combining local monitoring with finanacial incentives leads to both an increase in teacher attendance (by 8 percentage points) and an improvement in the quality of information. We also observe substantial gains in pupil attainment, driven primarily by a reduction in dropouts. By placing a financial value on these enrollment gains, we demonstrate that pay for locally monitored performance passes both welfare and fiscal sustainability tests. |
| Keywords: | Performance pay; Monitoring; Campbell's law; Field experiment; Education; Welfare; Uganda. |
| JEL: | D61 H52 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12836&r=ure |
| By: | Philippe Wingender |
| Abstract: | China is the most decentralized country in the world in terms of expenditures shares, with subnational governments responsible for 85 percent of government spending. Limited revenue autonomy and insufficient intergovernmental transfers have led to large unfunded mandates and a build-up of debt outside the budget. The government has recently announced an ambitious intergovernmental fiscal reform, which will increase the role of the central government. Comprehensive reform is needed to improve public service delivery, increase overall social spending levels and reduce regional disparities. Revenue reforms are also necessary to improve efficiency and reduce vulnerabilities from excessive subnational borrowing. These reforms are challenging, but are crucial so that the government can support China’s continued development and prosperity. |
| Date: | 2018–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/88&r=ure |
| By: | Graczyk, Andrew (Wake Forest University); Phan, Toan (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the welfare effects of asset bubbles in a model with income inequality and financial friction. We show that a bubble that emerges in the value of housing, a durable asset that is fundamentally useful for everyone, has regressive welfare effects. By raising the housing price, the bubble benefits high-income savers but negatively affects low-income borrowers. The key intuition is that, by creating a bubble in the market price, savers' demand for the housing asset for investment purposes imposes a negative externality on borrowers, who only demand the housing asset for utility purposes. The model also implies a feedback loop: high income inequality depresses the interest rates, facilitating the existence of housing bubbles, which in turn have regressive welfare effects. |
| Keywords: | rational bubble; inequality; housing; financial friction |
| JEL: | E10 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2018–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:18-10&r=ure |
| By: | Lange, Rutger-Jan; Teulings, Coen N |
| Abstract: | Classic real options theory rests on two debatable assumptions: projects require a fixed investment and generate cash flows that follow a random walk. Relaxing both assumptions leads to radically different conclusions regarding the optimal timing of investment. We model investment using a Stone-Geary production function (Leontief and Cobb-Douglas are special cases) and growth as a mean-reverting Brownian motion. The solution method for this option valuation problem is non-trivial because the state space is two dimensional (level of the cash flow and its growth). For Leontief, the optimal policy is intuitive; the moment of investment involves a trade-off between the level of the cash ow and its growth. For Cobb-Douglas, in contrast, the optimal moment of investment depends only on the growth. More surprisingly, investment should be delayed when growth is high. This conclusion persists in the general Stone-Geary case. Applied to urban real estate, this suggests that up to 20% of cities should delay new construction because of high growth. The option value of vacant land may represent 60% of the value of new construction. High prices of vacant land may thus result from rational investor behavior rather than regulatory inefficiency. Our analysis should be widely applicable, for example to investment in high-growth companies. |
| Keywords: | mean-reverting growth; real estate construction; real options |
| JEL: | D81 E22 R11 R30 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12847&r=ure |
| By: | Maria EL KHDARI |
| Abstract: | The paper examines how the Government of Morocco has addressed the issue of decentralization in recent years and how these processes have evolved and affected fiscal and public policies. More specifically, this paper analyzes the current legislative and institutional provisions governing administrative, political and fiscal decentralization in Morocco and presents a detailed analysis of the decentralized tax system. It analyses the role of each tier and the political, administrative and fiscal prerogatives of their respective councils. It appears from this analysis that the Moroccan system is still largely centralized. First, through the continued control of the central government via the tutelle. Second, because of the low financial autonomy of the local governments which remain widely dependent on intergovernmental transfers. Finally, it appears that the shared management of local taxation by different tiers of government can result in a lack of communication and information sharing as well as a lack of commitment from those that manage the collection on behalf of others. The regional level should be given more power to oversee and harmonize the prerogatives of each level of subnational government. |
| Keywords: | Deconcentration, Political decentralization, Fiscal decentralization, Local taxes, Local governments, Morocco. |
| JEL: | D72 H7 H2 H1 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1918&r=ure |
| By: | Junyue Wu; Yasumasa Matsuda |
| Abstract: | The number of foreign workers in Japan has been growing rapidly in recent years, and this phenomenon is drawing more attention than ever. Prefecture-level data shows uneven distribution across the country, but few research has been done to explain this fact. In this thesis, We proposed a threshold spatio-temporal model and its estimation method based on existing spatial panel model, attempting to improve the goodness of fit and making the comparison of prefectures with different economic properties possible. Then using a series of data published by Japanese government, We fitted the threshold model and traditional panel models to examine the influential factors of foreign labours in Japan at prefecture level. After that, We interpreted the result based on preliminary researches. As a result, the threshold model is proved superior to the two classic models in this study. Judging from the fitted models, the existence of spatial effect is confirmed, and GPP is identified as a major factor of foreign labour; enrolled students, criminal offenses and number of hotel guests as minor factor because they only showed influence in certain regions. |
| Date: | 2018–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:81&r=ure |
| By: | Frick, Susanne A.; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Wong, Michael D. |
| Abstract: | Despite a massive recent proliferation of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), there is virtually no quantitative research on what drives their dynamism. The aim of this paper is to address this gap and analyse the factors influencing SEZ performance – proxied by economic growth – in emerging countries. The paper relies on two novel datasets, using night-lights data to proxy for SEZ performance and containing a wide range of SEZ policy variables and characteristics across a large number of countries. The main results of the analysis indicate that a) zone growth is difficult to sustain over time; that b) trying to upgrade the technological component or value-added of the economy through SEZ policies is often challenging; and that c) zone size matters: larger zones have an advantage in terms of growth potential. Furthermore, country context significantly determines SEZ performance. Firms look for low cost locations, but in close proximity to large cities. Proximity to large markets as well as pre-existing industrialization also increase SEZ performance. In contrast, incentives and other program specific variables are highly context-specific and not structurally correlated with SEZ performance. |
| Keywords: | developing countries; Economic Growth; industrial policy; Special Economic Zones |
| JEL: | L52 O14 O24 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12840&r=ure |
| By: | Quatraro, Francesco; Scandura, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the generation of green technologies (GTs) in Italian NUTS 3 regions across time, by focusing on the knowledge generation mechanisms underlying the creation of green patents. Firstly, we hypothesize that inventions in non-green technological domains positively influence the generation of GTs, because the latter occur as the outcome of a recombination process among a wide array of technological domains. Secondly, we hypothesise that the involvement of academic inventors in patenting activity bears positive effects on the generation of GTs, because they are able to manage the recombination across different technological domains. Thirdly, we explore the interaction effect between academic inventors’ involvement and non-green technologies to investigate whether the former are especially relevant in presence of higher or lower levels of the latter. We estimate zero-inflated negative binomial, spatial durbin and logistic regressions on a dataset of 103 Italian NUTS 3 regions for which we collected patent and regional data for the time span 1998-2009. The results suggest that both academic inventors and spillovers from polluting technologies bear positive direct effects on the generation of GTs; moreover, we find that academic inventors compensate for low levels of spillovers. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201806&r=ure |
| By: | Mayda, Anna Maria; Peri, Giovanni; Steingress, Walter |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. We find that an increase in the first type of immigrants decreases the share of the Republican vote, while an inflow of the second type increases it. These effects are mainly due to the local impact of immigrants on votes of U.S. citizens and they seem independent of the country of origin of immigrants. We also find that the pro-Republican impact of low-skilled immigrants is stronger in low-skilled and non-urban counties. This is consistent with citizens' political preferences shifting towards the Republican Party in places where low-skilled immigrants are more likely to be perceived as competition in the labor market and for public resources. |
| Keywords: | Economic and Fiscal Channels; Electoral Effects; Immigration; Republican Party |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12848&r=ure |
| By: | Nguyen-Ones, Mai (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Steen, Frode (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Applying detailed consecutive daily micro data at the gasoline station level from Sweden we estimate a structural model to uncover the degree of competition in the gasoline retail market. We find that retailers do exercise market power, but despite the high upstream concentration, the market power is very limited on the downstream level. The degree of market power varies with both the distance to the nearest station and the local density of gasoline stations. A higher level of service tends to raise a seller’s market power; self-service stations have close to no market power. Contractual form and brand identity also seem to matter. We find a clear result: local station characteristics significantly affect the degree of market power. Our results indicate that local differences in station characteristics can more than offset the average market power found for the whole market. |
| Keywords: | Gasoline markets; market power; markup estimation; local market competition |
| JEL: | D22 L13 L25 L81 |
| Date: | 2018–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2018_004&r=ure |
| By: | Joaquim Montezuma; Jennifer McGarrigle |
| Abstract: | During the last two decades, it has become increasingly popular to buy a second home, with a significant number of these acquired abroad. Several factors explain this trend, including: general growth in households’ income; more leisure time, longer holidays, part time employment; more flexible employment including remote working; the housing wealth effect; lower barriers of distance; greater mobility; the liberalisation of financial markets; domestic technology innovations; and new forms of hyper consumption (Paris, 2009). The demand for second homes by foreign buyers in Portugal has been increasing since 2013, in some cases surpassing pre-crisis demand. The motives of this new wave of foreign buyers in Portugal seem to have undergone significant changes. Before the crisis, the key motivations driving second home ownership by foreign buyers were leisure or lifestyle (holiday and or retirement) and investment (to let investment and resale potential and investment diversification) (King, Warnes and Williams, 2000; Janoschka and Haas, 2014). While increasing international investment in the Portuguese property market has attracted media and public attention, there are few studies that try to understand new buyer motivations. Similarly, there is a lack of both empirical and theoretical analyses that elucidate the way in which foreign second homeowners affect housing market dynamics. This paper aims to fill this gap through a comparative triangulated analysis of pre- and post- crisis motivations. We draw on a unique survey sample collected in 2006-7 of British overseas second homeowners. To understand the processes instigating post-crisis shifts, we draw on qualitative fieldwork conducted in 2016/2017 including semi-structured interviews with real estate professionals and other key actors. Alongside new motivations, our results reveal the continued importance of lifestyle mobility related with quality of life, lower costs of life, proximity, climate and security (Sardinha, 2013; Torkington, 2012, O´Reilly, 2007). Today, however, new incentives and strategies, related with taxation and immigration policy, are driving the increasing trend of second home buying in Portugal. We conclude that macro and micro factors related with changing economic and political factors provide the structural opportunities for a diversifying group of residential tourists, investors and migrants in Portugal and reflect critically on the sustainability of this trend. |
| Keywords: | buyer's motivations; foreign investment; holiday homes; immigrant investors; second homes |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_380&r=ure |
| By: | Fred Hobma |
| Abstract: | In many countries, local governments feel the need to regulate the supply of a certain segment of the real estate sector in a defined geographical area. Usually, their main objective is to prevent the oversupply of for instance hotels or retail in a specific area. As a consequence, the existing suppliers receive (economic) protection, in the form of limitation of competition.An important way for local governments to regulate the establishment of real estate is through urban plans. For example, the local urban plan limits the accession of new hotels or retail to a certain number, percentage or other unit in a distinct geographical area.This paper addresses the question to what extent it is legally allowed to regulate an economic sector, like hotels or retail, by way of an urban plan. Under which conditions is it allowed to restrict the maximum number of activities of a specific economic sector in an urban plan and thereby limit competition between suppliers? This question appears in many countries.To answer this question, the paper will take into account European law (in particular the Services Directive) and Dutch planning law. Also, the most important European and Dutch case law will be discussed. To make it tangible, the hotel sector and the retail sector are taken as examples. It is in these segments of the real estate market, that the question to which extent regulation of establishment is allowed, is most often asked.In the framework of this paper, in particular article 14, para. 5 Services Directive is relevant. The article in principle forbids restriction of competition by member states (including local authorities). It prohibits the case-by-case application of (a) an economic test making the granting or authorisation subject to proof of the existence of an economic need or market demand, (b) an assessment of the potential or current economic effects of the activity or (c) an assessment of the appropriateness of the activity in relation to the economic planning objectives set by the competent authority. Yet, this kind of assessments are regularly applied in practice by local authorities in their urban plans.The scope of article 14 Services Directive, including case law, will be part of this paper.The answers to the questions of this paper are of relevance to prospective investors in real estate in EU countries. |
| Keywords: | Economic planning; Limitation of competition; Regulation; Services Directive; Urban plans |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_133&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel Henstra; Jason Thistlethwaite (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Canadian municipalities are vulnerable to climate change risks, particularly in the form of extreme weather. Risk management demands public policies that share both the responsibility for risk reduction and the burden of costs with other levels of government and with non-governmental actors. What tools are available to municipalities seeking to share the growing risks associated with a changing climate? To what extent and how have these tools been employed in Canadian cities? With a focus on urban flooding, this paper systematically identifies and explains ways in which governments can share climate-related risks. It then evaluates whether and how these tools have been used in two major Canadian cities – Calgary, Alberta, and Toronto, Ontario – which have recently faced severe flooding, and are likely to experience more in the coming years. From this analysis, conclusions are drawn about the state of local climate risk management and how it might be improved. |
| Keywords: | Toronto, climate change, flood, risk management, cities |
| JEL: | H84 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:30&r=ure |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladipo Oladiran |
| Abstract: | Housing is indisputably a key need that man needs to and aims to satisfy. However, satisfying this core human need requires huge capital outflow. Thus, intending homeowners rely on mortgage finance which is a suitable and viable option for buying their homes by making installment payment over a long period of time. Based on the important role of mortgage finance in satisfying this need, it is logical to infer that any intentional or implicit action or inaction that prevents an individual or group from accessing mortgage facilities is tantamount to a denial of their civil right, social opportunity, and a preclusion from homeownership.There is, however, substantial evidence that discrimination exists in mortgage lending. Literature typically classifies discrimination in the mortgage market on the basis of gender, race, geographical location, and age and suggest that mortgage discrimination is driven by either intentional or instinctive factors. While traditional research describe mortgage lending discrimination using the Becker’s differential treatment or taste-based theory and Arrow and Phelps’s statistical discrimination theory, contemporary research appear to advocate that discrimination in mortgage lending is a product of disparate effect, thus suggesting that the disparate impact theory may provide the most suitable scope required for investigating this complex phenomenon. Despite the reinforcement of disparate impact theory by several scholars, research has found it difficult to totally disentangle these theories and there is no consensus yet as to which of these theories and adequately describe the factors that drive mortgage lending discrimination.This research, therefore, reviews theoretical and empirical literature in mortgage lending with the aim of developing models that can effectively describe and analyse factors that drive mortgage market discrimination. This analysis will entail the investigation of relationships between variables used in the mortgage application with the aim observing causal factors of mortgage discrimination from the application stage to the mortgage decision, underwriting and loan administration stages which scholars have identified as major stages of the mortgage process in which discrimination plays out. |
| Keywords: | Differntial treatment discrimination; Disparate impact theory; Mortgage Discrimination; Mortgage markets; Statistical discrimination |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_240&r=ure |
| By: | Azar, José (IESE Business School); Marinescu, Ioana E. (University of Pennsylvania); Steinbaum, Marshall (Roosevelt Institute); Taska, Bledi (Burning Glass Technologies) |
| Abstract: | Using data on the near-universe of online US job vacancies collected by Burning Glass Technologies in 2016, we calculate labor market concentration using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) for each commuting zone by 6-digit SOC occupation. The average market has an HHI of 3,953, or the equivalent of 2.5 recruiting employers. 54% of labor markets are highly concentrated (above 2,500 HHI) according to the DOJ/FTC guidelines. Highly concentrated markets account for 17% of employment. All plausible alternative market definitions show that more than 33% of markets are highly concentrated, suggesting that employers have market power in many US labor markets. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, oligopsony, labor markets, competition policy |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J42 K21 L11 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11379&r=ure |
| By: | Zambiasi, Diego (University of the Basque Country); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the amenity value of legalized marijuana by analyzing the impact of marijuana legalization on migration to Colorado. Colorado is the pioneering state in this area having legalized medical marijuana in 2000 and recreational marijuana in 2012. We test whether potential migrants to Colorado view legalized marijuana as a positive or negative local amenity. We use the synthetic control methodology to examine in- and out-migration to/from Colorado versus migration to/from counterfactual versions of Colorado that have not legalized marijuana. We find strong evidence that potential migrants view legalized marijuana as a positive amenity with in-migration significantly higher in Colorado compared with synthetic- Colorado after the writing of the Ogden memo in 2009 that effectively allowed state laws already in place to be activated, and additionally after marijuana was legalized in 2013 for recreational use. When we employ permutation methods to assess the statistical likelihood of our results given our sample, we find that Colorado is a clear and significant outlier. We find no evidence for changes in out-migration from Colorado suggesting that marijuana legalization did not change the equilibrium for individuals already living in the state. |
| Keywords: | marijuana legalization, interstate migration, synthetic controls |
| JEL: | I18 R23 K42 C22 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11392&r=ure |
| By: | Giannelli, Gianna Claudia (University of Florence); Rapallini, Chiara (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | We find a positive relationship between math attitude and students' math scores using data obtained from PISA 2012 and a 2SLS model. Math attitude is approximated by three subjective measures: parental attitude and student instrumental motivation, which assess beliefs about math importance for the job market, and student math anxiety. The presence of one family member in a math-related career is our instrumental variable. Regardless of the proxy that is used for math attitude, an increase of one standard deviation increases the student score by at least 40 points, the equivalent of one year of schooling. |
| Keywords: | parental attitude toward math, student instrumental motivation, math anxiety, math-related career, math scores |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11395&r=ure |
| By: | Dinc, Yusuf |
| Abstract: | Participation banks can produce house financing based on mortgage in Turkey. Mortgage of participation banks of Turkey is a type of Murabaha financing. Murabaha financing model is based on buying in advance and selling on credit terms. Other financing models of interest-free banking are not applied to mortgages of participation banks in Turkey. Diminishing Musharakah is an interest-free financing model for any type of credits and also applied to mortgages in the world. In this essay Diminishing Musharakah is argued as a unique financing model of interest-free banking. Also applicability of Diminishing Musharakah for Turkish participation banks’ mortgages is evaluated. The findings that were obtained in Turkey may be generalized for the other regions of the world.* |
| Keywords: | Diminishing musharakah, mortgage, Islamic banking, participation banking, Sukuk. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2016–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85335&r=ure |
| By: | Lida Aminian; Harry Timmermans |
| Abstract: | With the recent and emerging trends such as creative and smart city concepts, the main focus of urban regeneration programs has been shifted from economic growth to human development, and from fixed plans to flexible human-based programs. With no longer new expansions, but rather focusing on abandoned areas within the borders of the cities, which is now happening in the Netherlands, urban regeneration is becoming a tool to improve cities and citizens potentials. Using technology and smart city methods to promote efficiency and functionality of living spaces is both bottom-up and top-down process, which engages citizens, and all the non-profit organizations with the final aim that is, improving the citizens’ quality of life.In this regard, measuring and modeling citizen’s quality life is now the best tool to evaluate the suitability and long-term success of urban regeneration program and approaches. In this research project, the concept of Quality of life has been studied and redefined and quantitative methods were used to explore the extent of the relationship between different life domains, built environment and general perceived quality of life. The study specifically looking at the Strijp-S district regeneration program initiated by the municipality of Eindhoven, as a creative and smart city program. To evaluate the current success of the program, data collected from the households in both "Strijp-S" and the neighboring area "Schoot", for making a comparison. An online survey platform, based on categorized sets of attributes, developed to cover different life domains satisfaction, such as housing, neighborhood, transportation, work and all the main activities of the residents.Respondents identified their living characteristic, such as housing type, means of daily transport, etc. and then evaluate and rate their satisfaction regarding all these living aspects. Finally, they have been asked to rate the general satisfaction for each domain, and the general perceived quality of life. For the purpose of the research, different quantitative and statistical methods used to analysis the data, and to show the direct and indirect impacts of each indicator on quality of life. The final results of the research reveal the differences of the impacts of the built environment attributes on the residents’ life satisfaction in different areas. Findings also highlight the effectiveness of smart city’s strategies in promoting neighborhood satisfaction, and accordingly contribute to the success of urban regeneration program |
| Keywords: | Measurement; Quality of Life; Survey; Urban Regeneration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_302&r=ure |
| By: | Liyousew G. Borga; Myroslav Pidkuyko |
| Abstract: | Using a unique longitudinal survey from Ethiopia, we investigate whether resource constrained parents reinforce or attenuate differences in early abilities between their children. We propose a simple model that allows for sibling interactions. To overcome the endogeneity associated with measures of endowment, we construct a measure of human capital at birth that is plausibly net of prenatal investment. We estimate a sibling fixed-effect model to account for bias due to unobserved family-specific heterogeneity. We find that parents reinforce educational inequality: inherently healthy children are more likely to attend preschool, be enrolled in elementary school, and have more expenses incurred towards their education. Health inputs are allocated in a compensatory manner.Creation-Date: 2018-03 |
| Keywords: | cognitive ability; health endowment; intrahousehold allocation; sibling rivalry; |
| JEL: | D13 I14 I24 J13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp616&r=ure |
| By: | Olcina, Gonzalo (Universidad de Valencia); Panebianco, Fabrizio (Bocconi University); Zenou, Yves (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We consider a model where each individual (or ethnic minority) is embedded in a network of relation-ships and decides whether or not she wants to be assimilated to the majority norm. Each individual wants her behavior to agree with her personal ideal action or norm but also wants her behavior to be as close as possible to the average assimilation behavior of her peers. We show that there is always convergence to a steady-state and characterize it. We also show that different assimilation norms may emerge in steady state depending on the structure of the network. We then consider the role of cultural and government leaders in the assimilation process of ethnic minorities and an optimal tax/subsidy policy which aim is to reach a certain level of assimilation in the population. |
| Keywords: | assimilation, networks, social norms, peer pressure, cultural leader |
| JEL: | D83 D85 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11436&r=ure |
| By: | Malgorzata Zieba; Agnieszka Telega |
| Abstract: | Extensive research on benefits (economic health and environmental) of sustainable office buildings does not cover sufficiently buildings’ impact on urban sustainability. Even though the multi-aspect impact of built environment on cities’ development is a well-known and broadly discussed phenomena and encompasses, among others, transportation issues, access to urban amenities, urban functions, land use, natural environment protection, health, quality of life and local economy.Creating and improving local conditions for living and investing is the responsibility of local governments. In Poland, planning tools like land-use planning isn’t obligatory for municipalities to elaborate, and it is perceived as intentional activity or additional initiative taken to stimulate local development.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the links between sustainable urban development, planning policies and office site location decisions making process of real estate investors and conceptualize a model of a green building location that meets real estate investors’ needs and requirements of urban sustainability.Criteria adopted for best-sustainable locations were elaborated on the basis of literature on urban sustainability and on office locational choicesTo determine most sustainable location of office buildings and to evaluate sustainable neighborhoods, we conducted analysis in GIS and calculated selected metrics (mixed land-use, walkability and clean transportation accessibility). In the next step we conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with investors engaged in sustainable office development projects in Cracow, asking them to define decision-making criteria of office building location.Conclusions from application of the model of office location and confrontation it with locations of existing office buildings in Cracow, could enhance sustainability of office buildings measured from sustainable urban development perspective and represented by buildings’ locations, and could contribute to better effectiveness of planning policy tools. |
| Keywords: | land-use planning; office building location; Sustainable Building; Sustainable Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_245&r=ure |
| By: | Italo Colantone (Bocconi University); Alessia Matano (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona.); Paolo Naticchioni (Roma Tre University IZA and INPSA.) |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of new imported inputs on wage dynamics, on the skill-composition of the labor force, on worker mobility,and on the efficiency of matching between firms and workers. We employ matched employer-employee data for Italy, over 1995-2007. We complement these data with information on the arrival of new imported inputs at the industry level. We find new imported inputs to have a positive effect on average wage growth at the firm level. This effect is driven by two factors: (1) an increase in the white-collar/blue-collar ratio; and (2) an increase in the average wage growth of blue-collar workers, while the wage growth of white collars is not significantly affected. The individual-level analysis reveals that the increase in the average wage of blue collars is driven by the displacement of the lowest paid workers, while continuously employed individuals are not affected. We estimate the unobserved skills of workers following Abowd et al(1999). We find evidence that new imported inputs lead to a positive selection of higher-skilled workers, and to an improvement in positive assortative matching between firms and workers. |
| Keywords: | F14, F16. JEL classification: New imported inputs; wages; matched employer-employee data. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201804&r=ure |
| By: | Ajay Agrawal; John McHale; Alex Oettl |
| Abstract: | The recruitment of foreign scientists enhances US science through an expanded workforce but could also cause harm by displacing better connected domestic scientists, thereby reducing localized knowledge spillovers. We develop a model in which a sufficient condition for the absence of overall harm is that immigrant scientists generate at least the same level of localized spillovers as the domestic scientists they displace. To test this condition, we conduct an experiment in which each immigrant hypothetically displaces an appropriately matched domestic scientist. Overall, we do not find evidence that immigrant scientists harm US science by crowding out better-connected domestic scientists. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24519&r=ure |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Katarzyna Salach; Konstancja Ziolkowska |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the potential direct impact of intensifying residential energy retrofitting on the Polish labour market. We distinguish eight building classes, for which we quantify the labour intensity of improvements to building insulation and heating systems. We account for work performed by low-, medium- and high-skilled workers. We define the baseline scenario of maintaining the current rate of retrofitting and three scenarios of its acceleration (up to two times) and increased comprehensiveness. We estimate the resulting additional labour demand and changes to the unemployment rate at the country and NUTS2 region level. Our results show that the most ambitious scenario of increased energy retrofitting would see the creation of approx. 100,000 additional jobs nationwide per year, with the majority of this added demand concerning low-skilled persons. This effect is predominantly caused by energy retrofits to single-family buildings. The effect of building insulation retrofits on the labour demand is 3-4 times greater than the effect of heating and hot water system upgrades. |
| Keywords: | residential energy retrofitting, energy efficiency, green jobs |
| JEL: | Q52 L74 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp022018&r=ure |
| By: | Camilo García-Jimeno; Angel Iglesias; Pinar Yildirim |
| Abstract: | How do social interactions shape collective action, and how are they mediated by the availability of networked information technologies? To answer these questions, we study the Temperance Crusade, one of the earliest instances of organized political mobilization by women in the U.S. This wave of protest activity against liquor dealers spread between the winter of 1873 and the summer of 1874, covering more than 800 towns in 29 states. We first provide causal evidence of social interactions driving the diffusion of the protest wave, and estimate the roles played by information traveling along railroad and telegraph networks. We do this by relying on exogenous variation in the rail network links generated by railroad worker strikes and railroad accidents. We also develop an event-study methodology to estimate the complementarity between rail and telegraph networks in driving the spread of the Crusade. We find that railroad and telegraph-mediated information about neighboring protest activity were main drivers of the diffusion of the protest movement. We also find strong complementarities between both networks. Using variation in the types of protest activities of neighboring towns and in the aggregate patterns of the diffusion process, we also find suggestive evidence of social learning as a key mechanism behind the effect of information on protest adoption. |
| JEL: | D71 D83 N11 N31 N71 O18 Z12 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24495&r=ure |
| By: | Miranda, Karen; Manjón Antolín, Miguel C.; Martínez Ibáñez, Oscar |
| Abstract: | We present a growth model with interdependencies in the heterogeneous technological progress, physical capital and stock of knowledge that yields a growth-initial equation that can be taken to the data. We then use data on EU-NUTS2 regions and a correlated random effects specifi cation to estimate the resulting spatial Durbin dynamic panel model with spatially weighted individual effects. QML estimates support our model against simpler alternatives that impose a homogeneous technology and limit the sources of spatial externalities. Also, our results indicate that rich regions tend to have higher \unobserved productivity" and are likely to stay rich because of the strong time and spatial dependence of the GDP per capita. Poor regions, on the other hand, tend to enjoy \unobserved productivity" spillovers but are like to stay poor unless they increase their saving rates. Keywords: correlated random effects, Durbin model, economic growth, spatial panel data. JEL Classifi cation: C23, O47 |
| Keywords: | Anàlisi de dades de panel, Creixement econòmic, 33 - Economia, |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/307363&r=ure |
| By: | Graham Squires; Alex Lord |
| Abstract: | In urban public finance, finding alternative ways of supporting local service provision has become an increasingly important issue. With central government funding increasingly scarce, local authorities have been encouraged to find new ways of supporting themselves. In the UK this has taken the form of an in depth review of local government finance, together with the devolution of policy tools that incentivise local authorities’ to embrace the pro-growth agenda. Part of this suite of measures is a revised approach to betterment taxes and ‘planning gain’ through the introduction of a Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL). CIL provides local authorities with the opportunity to organise their policy on planning gain contributions in a transparent fashion through the development of a ‘charging schedule’, a formal component of a local authority’s legal planning documentation. The charging schedule sets out the fee (or range of fees) applicable to any development occurring within that local planning authority’s jurisdiction, typically expressed as a sum (£) per m2 of built space. The proceeds of CIL are then to be spent on locally identified infrastructure priorities, not necessarily related to mitigating the impacts of an individual development. The rationale for making infrastructure investment a priority for local, as well as/rather than central, government has turned on the academic logic that, public finance dedicated to new or improved infrastructure can have profound effects on local economic growth. As a consequence a central tenet in the ongoing struggle to effect revitalisation in urban England, has come to focus on the renewal of infrastructure dating to the Victorian, Edwardian and post-war periods. This paper seeks to explore the implications of this locally-financing infrastructure provision through a betterment tax (or arguably an impact fee) such as the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL), and uncover whether the policy tool ‘fits’ a design of land value capture, using future revenue streams with a betterment tax realised in the present. Moreover the paper aims to report on ongoing research comprising, firstly, an investigation into the origins and emergence of the CIL policy, and, secondly; to study the variation in CIL’s implementation when considered in the context of the dynamic uneven economic geography to which it applies. |
| Keywords: | Betterment Tax; Community Infrastructure Levy; Infrastructure Planning; Public Finance; Urban Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_293&r=ure |
| By: | ChanWoo Kim; Kyung-Min Kim |
| Abstract: | Spatial integration and increased connectivity have hugely affected regions and cities across national borders, and real estate assets, including offices, have inevitably felt the effects of global consolidation. Despite the abundance of discussions on the real estate and office markets, research that focusses on this phenomenon has rarely been conducted.Thus, this study aims to reflect the effects of inter-city connectivity on the world's office market and office rents. The spatial scope of the paper is 50 major cities throughout the world, and the time scope is the period 2010-2014. This study is distinctive in that it conducts a comparative study amongst cities worldwide, and tries to discover a previously unidentified determinant of office rents. The basic assumption of the study is that the spatial integration effect, represented by air connectivity, positively affects office rents. Three models have been set up according to aspects of air connectivity: the number of flight seats, the number of flights, and ASKs (available seat kilometres). Formerly established determinants of office rents, vacancy and GDP per capita are also set as independent variables.Panel analysis of the 50 cities resulted in the following: In the case of Europe and North America, which comprise 80 percent of all samples, correlation of rent and air connectivity turned out to be significantly positive in all models. This empirical result satisfies the basic assumption of the study that increased spatial integration significantly affects world office rents on the whole. Asia Pacific samples, however, turned out to have a statistically insignificant correlation between rents and air connectivity. This result suggests that Asia Pacific's regional complexity is not fully reflected in the models, and shows that the study has some limitations with respect to explanatory power.Considering the office market’s importance in both the commercial real estate market and the real estate market as a whole, it is a crucial task to determine factors that affect office rents to properly understand the asset market and predict the market’s future movement. This study acquires significance in this context because it involves considering how connectivity effects may lessen uncertainty in the real estate market and improve efficiency in this market, where illiquidity has long been thought of as one of its feature |
| Keywords: | Air Connectivity; Determinant; Office Rent; Panel Model; World City |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_233&r=ure |
| By: | Konstantin Büchel; Stephan Kyburz |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points, while municipalities in close vicinity but no direct access (i.e. 2{10 km distance) experienced a growth slump of similar magnitude. We interpret these findings as evidence of highly localised displacement effects related to railway connections. |
| Keywords: | railway access, population growth, displacement effects |
| JEL: | N33 N73 O18 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1538&r=ure |
| By: | Oliver Lerbs; Markus Teske |
| Abstract: | In view of the dominance of housing in the average portfolio of private households, there is a striking paucity of empirical evidence concerning individual expectations on housing asset returns. Building on the well-developed literature on individual stock return expectations, e.g. Kilka and Weber (2000) or Kempf and Merkle (2014), this research aims at measuring individual expectations on housing returns. We attempt to disentangle two components of total housing returns: first, house prices rise and fall over time, giving rise to asset value gains and losses. Second, analogous to dividends for stocks, housing offers a cash flow in the form of (implicit) rents. The expectations regarding price appreciation yield and rent yield sum up to the total housing return expectations.In order to examining housing return expecations, we use the second wave of the Panel on Household Finances (PHF) conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank. In this survey, around 4,500 German households are asked in detail about their financial situation. This includes the composition of their portfolio and questions like the rent they think to be able to charge for their own house as well as sociodemographic information.Based on households’ self-reported estimates regarding the present and future values of their own house and the implicit rental dividend on their house, we calculate total housing return expectations and analyze their cross-sectional distribution. The numerous items of the survey furthermore allow us to identify key factors influencing households’ expectations about house prices, rents and total housing returns.Total housing return expectations display a great amount of cross-sectional variation and are correlated to numerous socio-demographic characteristics, financial literacy and past experiences. Surprisingly, total housing return expectations are moderately negatively associated with the size of housing net wealth - households more heavily invested in housing tend to ask for lower returns. Homeowners who are also landlords are furthermore more pessimistic in their expectations about total housing returns and both of their components, possibly because they are more cautious and realistic due to higher experience in real estate markets. Households who constructed their main residence are also generally more pessimistic, possibly implying that they regard their house primarily as consumption good. |
| Keywords: | Expectation formation; Financial literacy; Housing investment; Portfolio choice |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_153&r=ure |
| By: | Phillip Monin (Office of Financial Research); Richard Bookstaber (University of California) |
| Abstract: | Markets coordinate the flow of information in the economy, aggregating it through the price mechanism. We develop a dynamic model of information transmission and aggregation in financial and other social networks in which continued membership in the network is contingent on the accuracy of opinions. Agents have opinions about a state of the world and form links to others in a directed fashion probabilistically. Agents update their opinions by averaging those of their connections, weighted by how long their connections have been in the system. Agents survive or die based on how far their opinions are from the true state. In contrast to the results in the extant literature on DeGroot learning, we show through simulations that for some parameterizations the model cycles stochastically between periods of high connectivity, in which agents arrive at a consensus opinion close to the state, and periods of low connectivity in which agents’ opinions are widely dispersed. We add varying degrees of homophily through a model parameter called tribal preference and find that crash frequency is decreasing in the degree of homophily. Our results suggest that the information aggregation function of markets can fail solely because of the dynamics of information flows, irrespective of shocks or news. |
| Keywords: | social networks, DeGroot learning, dynamic network formation, information transmission, nonlinear dynamical systems, crashes |
| Date: | 2017–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:discus:17-01&r=ure |
| By: | Wangsness, Paal Brevik (Institute of Transport Economics – Norwegian Centre for Transport Research) |
| Abstract: | The road transport market has many market imperfections such as local and global pollution, accidents, noise and road wear. Electric vehicles (EVs) avoid some of these by not having any tailpipe CO2 emissions, but they still contribute to external costs such as congestion. Our research questions are: What characterizes the set of secondbest road prices for internalizing external costs from driving EVs and ICEVs when you also have distortionary labor taxes and binding government budget constraints? How are these prices affected by distortions elsewhere in the economy? How does this second-best pricing fit with government set goals of reducing CO2 emissions? This paper further develops an analytical framework for assessing first- and secondbest road prices on vehicle kilometers, extending it to include EVs and externalities that vary geographically and by time of day. Expressions for the optimal road prices are derived analytically, and then solved numerically. We find that optimal road prices largely vary with external cost, giving high prices for driving in cities during peak hours, and relatively low prices for driving in rural areas. We also see that the road prices’ interactions with the rest of the fiscal system have implications for determining the optimal set of road prices. However, the optimal set of road prices leads to little or no reductions in carbon emissions with the currently recommended social cost of carbon estimates. This implies that any required reduction in CO2emissions will require a shadow price that exceeds the current social cost estimate. |
| Keywords: | road pricing; road transport externalities; electric vehicles; government budget; constraints; tax interaction; CO2 emission constraints |
| JEL: | H21 H23 Q54 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2018–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2017_010&r=ure |
| By: | Gluschenko, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies market integration of 13 regions constituting Siberia with one another and all other Russian regions. The law of one price serves as a criterion of market integration. The data analyzed are time series of the regional costs of a basket of basic foods (staples basket) over 2001–2015. Pairs of regional markets are divided into four groups: perfectly integrated, conditionally integrated, not integrated but tending towards integration (converging), and neither integrated nor converging. Nonlinear time series models with asymptotically decaying trends describe price convergence. Integration of Siberian regional markets is found to be fairly strong; they are integrated and converging with about 70% of country’s regions (including Siberian regions themselves). |
| Keywords: | market integration law of one price price convergence nonlinear trend Russian regions |
| JEL: | C32 L81 P22 R15 |
| Date: | 2018–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85667&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandra Flynn; Zachary Spicer (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, Toronto City Council asked city staff to review community councils as part of the City’s ward boundary review process. Toronto’s ward boundary review realigned the city’s wards, so the City now needs to set new boundaries for community councils. Staff has been directed to report back to Council in 2017 on the “impacts to governance and structure changes to the authority, duties, and function of community councils.†Meanwhile, in November 2016, the Province of Ontario introduced measures to strengthen the use of community councils across Ontario. There is thus a unique opportunity available to re-imagine the authority and use of Toronto’s community councils. In this paper, we review the function and scope of community councils in Canada, including their theoretical underpinnings and Toronto’s community council structure. We make three recommendations to strengthen Toronto’s community council network. First, we recommend redefining what is considered to be a “local†or “citywide†matter, thereby allowing community councils to examine a greater range of issues. Second, we argue that the City should expand its delegation to community councils, and thereby take more issues off the agenda of City Council. Finally, we propose allowing residents to serve directly on community councils. |
| Keywords: | community councils, local government, Toronto, local governance, public participation |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:36&r=ure |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr |
| Abstract: | We study immigrant entrepreneurship and firm ownership in 2007 and 2012 using the Survey of Business Owners (SBO). The survival and growth of immigrant-owned businesses over time relative to native-founded companies is evaluated by linking the 2007 SBO to the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD). We quantify the dependency of the United States as a whole, as well as individual states, on the contributions of immigrant entrepreneurs in terms of firm formation and job creation. We describe differences in the types of businesses started by immigrants and the quality of jobs created by their firms. First-generation immigrants create about 25% of new firms in the United States, but this share exceeds 40% in some states. In addition, Asian and Hispanic second-generation immigrants start about 6% of new firms. Immigrant-owned firms, on average, create fewer jobs than native-owned firms, but much of this is explained by the industry and geographic location of the firms. Immigrant-owned firms pay comparable wages, conditional on firm traits, to native-owned firms, but are less likely to offer benefits. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J44 J61 L26 M13 O31 O32 O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24494&r=ure |
| By: | van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Bristol); Siflinger, Bettina M. (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of day care exposure on behavioral disorders and mental and physical health at various ages during childhood. We draw on a unique set of merged population register data from Sweden over the period 1999-2008. This includes merged information at the individual level from the inpatient and outpatient registers, the population register and the income tax register. The outpatient register contains all ambulatory care contacts including all contacts with physicians and therapists. Visits are recorded by day, and comprehensive diagnoses are recorded for each visit. By exploiting variation in day care exposure by age generated by a major day care policy reform, we estimate cumulative and instantaneous effects on child health at different ages. We find a positive cumulative impact on behavior at primary school ages, in particular for children from low socio-economic status households, and substitution of infections from primary school ages to low ages. All this affects health care utilization and leads to a moderate reduction in health care costs. Results are confirmed by analyses based on a sibling design and on regional and household-specific components of day care fees. |
| Keywords: | child care, pre-school, infections, non-cognitive ability, behavioral disorders, illness, education, health registers, day-care fees |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J14 C23 C25 C83 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11447&r=ure |
| By: | Alzúa, María Laura (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Djebbari, Habiba (Université Laval); Pickering, Amy J. (Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | Basic sanitation facilities are still lacking in large parts of the developing world, engendering serious environmental health risks. Interventions commonly deliver in-kind or cash subsidies to promote private toilet ownership. In this paper, we assess an intervention that provides information and behavioral incentives to encourage villagers in rural Mali to build and use basic latrines. Using an experimental research design and carefully measured indicators of use, we find a sizeable impact from this intervention: latrine ownership and use almost doubled in intervention villages, and open defecation was reduced by half. Our results partially attribute these effects to increased knowledge about cheap and locally available sanitation solutions. They are also associated with shifts in the social norm governing sanitation. Taken together, our findings, unlike previous evidence from other contexts, suggest that a progressive approach that starts with ending open defecation and targets whole communities at a time can help meet the new Sustainable Development Goal of ending open defecation. |
| Keywords: | sanitation, behavioral change, community-based intervention, social norm |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 D78 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11446&r=ure |
| By: | Tara Sinclair (George Washington University); Mariano Mamertino (Indeed Hiring Lab) |
| Keywords: | international migration, labor mobility, online labor markets, European Union, Brexit |
| JEL: | J6 J4 F22 O15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2018-3&r=ure |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier (FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles], IRES Department of Economics, Université Catholique de Louvain, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Aysit Tansel (METU - Middle East Technical University [Ankara]); Riccardo Turati (IRES Department of Economics, Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations, short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population. They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless, the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration,self-selection,cultural traits,gender-egalitarian attitudes,religiosity,MENA region |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01743729&r=ure |
| By: | Brainard, Lael (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Date: | 2018–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:997&r=ure |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enric Monte (Polytechnic University of Catalunya (UPC)); Salvador Torra (Riskcenter-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this work we assess the role of data characteristics in the accuracy of machine learning (ML) tourism forecasts from a spatial perspective. First, we apply a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on non-parametric regression to isolate the different components of the time series of international tourism demand to all Spanish regions. This approach allows us to compute a set of measures to describe the features of the data. Second, we analyse the performance of several ML models in a recursive multiple-step-ahead forecasting experiment. In a third step, we rank all seventeen regions according to their characteristics and the obtained forecasting performance, and use the rankings as the input for a multivariate analysis to evaluate the interactions between time series features and the accuracy of the predictions. By means of dimensionality reduction techniques we summarise all the information into two components and project all Spanish regions into perceptual maps. We find that entropy and dispersion show a negative relation with accuracy, while the effect of other data characteristics on forecast accuracy is heavily dependent on the forecast horizon. |
| Keywords: | STL decomposition; non-parametric regression; time series features; forecast accuracy; machine learning; tourism demand; regional analysis JEL classification: C45; C51; C53; C63; E27; L83 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201802&r=ure |
| By: | Gustavo Carvalho (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Municipalities are crucial stakeholders in the response to climate change. Cities are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and, due to their higher building and population densities, will bear the brunt of the economic and social costs imposed by extreme weather and the impact of climate change. Ontario municipalities have traditionally funded their investments from property taxes, user fees, and transfers from higher levels of government, but these sources will not be sufficient to fund both current expenditures and future capital needs. This paper explores an alternative: climate finance, the provision of financing by private actors for projects intended to decrease carbon emissions or make cities more resilient to the impacts of climate change. It analyzes four climate financing tools used in other jurisdictions – green bonds, environmental impact bonds, catastrophe bonds, and green banks – and their feasibility under current Ontario regulations. Not all instruments would be equally suitable to Ontario municipalities; each offers trade-offs that must be weighed before implementation. Still, the potential for climate financing is huge and it has a role to play in long-term climate infrastructure projects requiring large upfront investments. |
| Keywords: | climate finance, debt finance, green bonds, environmental impact bonds, catastrophe bonds, green banks |
| JEL: | H23 H71 H74 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:37&r=ure |
| By: | Koschatzky, Knut |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to broaden the knowledge base on the topic of innovation-based regional structural change and to discuss the possibilities of raising structurally weak regions to a dynamic growth path by means of innovation-promoting measures. The background to this objective are political developments in Germany with regard to the development of a comprehensive German support system for structurally weak regions from 2020 onwards. While regional structural support (ERDF and German regional support) is so far essentially concentrated on regions in the eastern federal states, it should focus in future on structurally weak regions in all federal states and eliminate the differentiation between eastern and western Germany (Deutscher Bundestag 2016, 4). The experience gained in the eastern German states with the focus on innovation as a driver of structural change is intended to provide a starting point here, but taking into account the fact that some structural factors differ markedly between East German and West German regions. Against this background, this paper focuses on the innovation policy component of a system for promoting structural change in structurally weak regions. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisifr:r12018&r=ure |
| By: | Lyubimov, Ivan; Gvozdeva, Margarita; Lysyuk, Maria |
| Abstract: | Following Hausmann et al. (2011), we apply a network approach to measure the level of economic complexity and diversification opportunities of Russian regions. Using Russian and international export data, we find that the complexity of Russian regional economies varies substantially: rela-tively high in western and central regions, lower in southern and northern Russia and lowest in eastern regions. While Russian regions, on average, have poor diversification opportunities, regions can still diversify their exports by participating in international value-added chains or cooperating in developing group strategies. Our results are highly consistent with two well-established rankings of Russian regional R&D development based on numerous regional indicators, and imply that our network-based measure of complexity captures important features such as the level of regional R&D. |
| JEL: | O14 O25 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_008&r=ure |
| By: | Nikolaos Triantafyllopoulos |
| Abstract: | The Athens city-center building stock is in bad situation, due to the lack of appropriate urban policies for a very long time and the current long-lasting economic crisis. About 35% of the real properties are derelict. Due to the high renovation and modernization costs of the buildings, as well as the low rental values, they are gradually abandoned. Additionally, their very high degree of co-ownership renders buildings' renovation an extremely difficult task both for owners and developers.The building stock has been progressively excluded from the processes that could support the economic growth and the socio-economic development of the city. For the financial sector, buildings are no longer an object of interest, not because of their low market value, but because of the high risk in financing investments and the lack of interest for the mortgage market thereon. A vicious circle has been established: the buildings are depreciated due to the degradation of the urban environment and vice-versa.A model for the renovation of the buildings has been elaborated. This model is based on the property rights consolidation, in order to achieve the flexible use and management of the buildings as physical, legal and economic entities. It supports and promotes the mobilization and collaboration both of the private and public sectors, and PPP schemes.The main factors that have been taken into account are:Real estate development: The model supports the use of financial engineering schemes, following a deep analysis of the market and numerous feasibility studies.EU State Aid regulations: Under current financial conditions and local market failures, State aid and/or grants are required.Key legal issues: co-ownership decision making, tools for applying State policyregarding owners compliance to property obligations, institution of a legal framework permitting the compulsory purchase of abandoned properties to the benefit of private entities/developers and fast track investment.Finally, the whole administrative process and governance matters are regulated by the model, according to the existing European and national frameworks for urban projects.Research funded by the Onassis Foundation, following a MoU signed between the Foundation and the Greek Government. |
| Keywords: | Athens; derelict buildings; Renovation; reuse; Urban Regeneration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_318&r=ure |
| By: | María Edo (UdeSA & CONICET); Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP & CONICET) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact on education outcomes of the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), a massive conditional cash transfer program targeted at young children of unemployed and informal workers launched in Argentina in late 2009. Evidence from previous works suggests that the AUH has had a significant positive impact on attendance rates at the beginning of the school year, but concentrated on boys in upper-secondary school. In this paper we study the effects on other education outcomes: intra-year dropout rates and primary school completion rates. We find that the AUH may be held responsible for significant improvements in both outcomes while the analysis highlights heterogeneous effects across age groups and gender. In particular, the AUH seems to have contributed to reduce intra-year dropout rates of eligible girls aged 12 to 14 (almost 4 p.p.) and 15 to 17 (7 p.p.) while no effects were found for children aged 6 to 11 or for boys, irrespective of age. The program seems to have also increased the probability of graduating from primary school of over-aged eligible children (1.4 p.p. for boys aged 12 to 14, almost 3 p.p. for girls in that age range and 2 p.p. for boys in the 15-17 age group). These results suggest that beyond the effects on school access indicators, the AUH may also contribute to the improvement of final outcomes in education. Nevertheless, the evidence also indicates that there is room for improvements in the design of the program aimed at enhancing these long term effects. |
| JEL: | I2 I3 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0225&r=ure |
| By: | Blanes i Vidal, Jordi (London School of Economics); Mastrobuoni, Giovanni (Collegio Carlo Alberto) |
| Abstract: | An influential literature has used the aftermath of terrorist attacks to estimate large effects of police street deployment on crime. However, the elasticities obtained in these settings may not easily extrapolate to more standard circumstances. This paper exploits a natural experiment that aimed to increase police presence in more than 6,000 well-defined areas, by economically-realistic amounts and under relatively normal circumstances. Using data transmitted by GPS devices worn by police officers, we first document exogenous and discontinuous changes in patrolling intensity. We do not find that these increases in patrolling were accompanied by corresponding decreases in crime. The standard errors are small enough to reject relatively small elasticities. We discuss and empirically evaluate explanations for our findings. |
| Keywords: | police, crime, natural experiments, deterrence |
| JEL: | D29 K40 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11393&r=ure |
| By: | Ospina, Juan; Uhlig, Harald |
| Abstract: | We examine the payoff performance, up to the end of 2013, of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), issued up to 2008. We have created a new and detailed data set on the universe of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities, per carefully assembling source data from Bloomberg and other sources. We compare these payoffs to their ex-ante ratings as well as other characteristics. We establish seven facts. First, the bulk of these securities was rated AAA. Second, AAA securities did ok: on average, their total cumulated losses up to 2013 are 2.3 percent. Third, the subprime AAA-rated segment did particularly well. Fourth, later vintages did worse than earlier vintages, except for subprime AAA securities. Fifth, the bulk of the losses were concentrated on a small share of all securities. Sixth, the misrating for AAA securities was modest. Seventh, controlling for a home price bust, a home price boom was good for the repayment on these securities. Together, these facts provide challenge the conventional narrative, that improper ratings of RMBS were a major factor in the financial crisis of 2008. |
| Keywords: | Credit ratings; financial crisis of 2008; MBS; Mortgage-Backed Securities |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12852&r=ure |
| By: | Juan Ospina; Harald Uhlig |
| Abstract: | We examine the payoff performance, up to the end of 2013, of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), issued up to 2008. We have created a new and detailed data set on the universe of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities, per carefully assembling source data from Bloomberg and other sources. We compare these payoffs to their ex-ante ratings as well as other characteristics. We establish seven facts. First, the bulk of these securities was rated AAA. Second, AAA securities did ok: on average, their total cumulated losses up to 2013 are 2.3 percent. Third, the subprime AAA-rated segment did particularly well. Fourth, later vintages did worse than earlier vintages, except for subprime AAA securities. Fifth, the bulk of the losses were concentrated on a small share of all securities. Sixth, the misrating for AAA securities was modest. Seventh, controlling for a home price bust, a home price boom was good for the repayment on these securities. Together, these facts provide challenge the conventional narrative, that improper ratings of RMBS were a major factor in the financial crisis of 2008. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24509&r=ure |
| By: | Oleksandr S. Chernyshenko (University of Western Australia); Miloš Kankaraš (OECD); Fritz Drasgow (Drasgow Consulting Group) |
| Abstract: | In an increasingly fast-changing, complex and diverse world, social and emotional skills are becoming ever more important. In this paper we present an overview of literature on social and emotional skills, describing the nature and structure of these skills, their development, malleability and factors that influence them, their cross-cultural comparability and their relevance for a wide range of educational, economic and life outcomes. The paper also represents a conceptual framework for the OECD’s new Study on Social and Emotional Skills, an international survey that assesses 10- and 15-year-old students in a number of cities and countries around the world.We focus on the underlying skills within and outside of the widely researched Big Five model that are found to be more predictive and policy relevant. We examine the relationships of these skills with a variety of indicators of individual and societal well-being such as education, employment and income, health, and personal well-being. The paper discusses the structure of child’s social and emotional skills and the developmental trajectories of these skills across a lifetime. It presents the evidence of malleability of these skills as well as their relevance across a wide range of cultural contexts. |
| Date: | 2018–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:173-en&r=ure |
| By: | Naledi C. Madala; Molefe B. Phirinyane (Botswana Institute for Developmebnt Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The Government of Botswana has, and continues to promote local government as an instrument of decentralization and public participation for local level governance and service delivery. Local authorities (LAs) are at the forefront of the provision of basic services to the local communities. The LAs are also a major channel for the use of public resources as exemplified by the significant budget allocations committed to them. It is, therefore, important that they conduct their business in the most effective and efficient manner. In order for public sector systems to deliver effective localized services, LAs in Botswana should be gradually transformed from bodies that are mainly concerned with pushing services but to proactively engage their citizens and represent their communities’ interests. Considering the extent of responsibilities of the local government authorities, there is a need to set clear expectations and have structures to ensure that local bodies respond to local needs by conducting local development in a timely, inclusive, open, honest and accountable manner. As some of the many efforts required to improve governance and service delivery in the country this paper proposes the establishment and operationalisation of an Open Local Government Framework, within which local bodies will be supported to make extensive local government information available online as part of an online LA notice board. This paper also recommends for the production of a Local Authority Data Book as a foundation for evidence-based policy-making and policy implementation. |
| Keywords: | Local Government, Open data, e-Government, Open Local Government Framework, Local Authority Data Book |
| JEL: | E32 R10 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:44&r=ure |
| By: | Fort, Teresa C; Pierce, Justin; Schott, Peter K. |
| Abstract: | We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine how US manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establishments, and regions from 1977 to 2012. We show that these data provide support for both trade-and technology-based explanations of the overall decline of employment over this period, while also highlighting the difficulties of estimating an overall contribution for each mechanism. Toward that end, we discuss how further analysis of these trends might yield sharper insights. |
| Keywords: | technology; Trade; US manufacturing employment |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12839&r=ure |