nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒04‒23
fifty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Urban Growth, Spatial Change, Land Use, Housing and Population Relations: The Case of Ankara Province By Yesim Aliefendioglu; Sibel Canaz Sevgen; Gizem Var; Harun Tanrivermis
  2. Recovering social networks from panel data: Identification, simulations and an application By Aureo de Paula; Imran Rasul; Pedro CL Souza
  3. House price dynamics of the top 13 cities in China By Justine Jing Wang; Alla Koblyakova; Piyush Tiwari; John S. Croucher
  4. Why do wages grow faster in urban areas? Sorting of high potentials matters By Paul Verstraten; Gerard Verweij; Peter Zwaneveld
  5. Regional inequality in Europe: evidence, theory and policy implications By Simona Iammarino; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Michael Storper
  6. Estimating the Effects of a Large For-Profit Charter School Operator By Susan Dynarski; Daniel Hubbard; Brian Jacob; Silvia Robles
  7. Vehicle choices and urban transport externalities. Are Norwegian policy makers getting it right? By Wangsness, Paal Brevik; Proost, Stef; Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold
  8. Request and Potential for Social Housing Projects in Germany, by the example of the Federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia By Theresa Katharina Kotulla
  9. Driving time, productivity, and the Fundamental Law of Road Congestion By Jesús Rodríguez; José L. Torres
  10. Platform economies and urban planning: Airbnb and regulated deregulation in London By Sanyal, Romola; Ferreri, Mara
  11. The urban economics of retail By Ioulia Ossokina; Coen Teulings; Jan Svitak
  12. Complexities in the spatial scope of agglomeration economies By Paul Verstraten; Gerard Verweij; Peter Zwaneveld
  13. Disentangling the effects of a banking crisis: evidence from German firms and counties By Huber, Kilian
  14. Did the London Congestion Charge Reduce Pollution? By Colin Green; John Spencer Heywood; Maria Navarro Paniagua
  15. Collateral Damage? Decreasing House Prices and Entrepreneurial Lending By Remco Mocking; Benedikt Vogt; Wolter Hassink
  16. Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market By Adam M. Guren; Arvind Krishnamurthy; Timothy J. McQuade
  17. Is the China Housing Market in a bubble? By Justine Jing Wang; Alla Koblyakova; Piyush Tiwari; John S. Croucher
  18. Power to the Periphery? The failure of Regional Convergence in Canada, 1890-2006 By Minns, Chris; Rosés, Joan R.
  19. Gender gaps in different grading systems By Catarina Ângelo; Ana Balcão Reis
  20. Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages? By Efraim Benmelech; Nittai K. Bergman; Hyunseob Kim
  21. Public Procurement, Local Labor Markets and Green Technological Change: Evidence from US Commuting Zones. By Orsatti, Gianluca; Perruchas, François; Consoli, Davide; Quatraro, Francesco
  22. Dynamic Responses to Immigration By Colas, Mark
  23. The Structure of Origin-Based Social Network and Its Influence on Migration Diffusion: The Case of a Migrant-Sending Village in the Philippines By Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
  24. Markups Across Space and Time By Eric Anderson; Sergio Rebelo; Arlene Wong
  25. Long-Term Effects of Childhood Nutrition: Evidence from a School Lunch Reform By Alex-Petersen, Jesper; Lundborg, Petter; Rooth, Dan-Olof
  26. An innovative tool for territorial shared diagnosis on poverty and social inclusion: a support for cooperation? By Sonia Adam-Ledunois; Romuald Mansuy; Sébastien Damart
  27. Socioeconomic Determinants for Regional Variation of Crime in Germany By Umbach, Tim
  28. Real estate and land property automated valuation systems: A taxonomy and conceptual model By GLUMAC Brano; DES ROSIERS François
  29. The Impact of Democracy Prep Public Schools on Civic Participation By Brian Gill; Charles Tilley; Emilyn Whitesell; Mariel Finucane; Liz Potamites; Sean Corcoran
  30. Family-Centered Measures of Access to Early Care and Education By Davis, Elizabeth E.; Lee, Won Fy; Sojourner, Aaron J.
  31. Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective By Raj Chetty; Nathaniel Hendren; Maggie R. Jones; Sonya R. Porter
  32. Measuring Market Power in Gasoline Retailing: A Market- or Station Phenomenon? By Nguyen-Ones, Mai; Steen, Frode
  33. Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier By Dupor, William D.; Karabarbounis, Marios; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mehkari, M. Saif
  34. Knowledge diffusion across regions and countries: evidence from patent citations By Wiljan van den Berge; Jonneke Bolhaar; Roel van Elk
  35. Equilibrium in a dynamic model of congestion with large and small users By Robin Lindsey; André De Palma; Hugo Silva
  36. Parental occupation and children's school outcomes in math By Gianna Claudia Giannelli; Chiara Rapallini
  37. Collecting data from migrants in Ghana: lessons learned using respondent-driven sampling By Lattof, Samantha R.
  38. Do paid teacher trainee programs lead to additional teachers in secondary education? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis By Anja Deelen; Sonny Kuijpers
  40. Tax Competition - An intertemporal perspective By Nora Paulus; Patrice Pieretti; Benteng Zou
  41. Collective Memory as a Resource for the Conceptualization of Public and Private Spaces in the Metropolis By Vakhshtayn, Victor
  42. The effect of geographical distance on online transactions: Evidence from the Netherlands By Ali Palali; Bas Straathof; Rinske Windig
  43. Employment Polarization in local labor markets: the Dutch case By Raoul van Maarseveen; Nikolaos Terzidis; Raquel Ortega - Argiles
  44. University Quotas and Peers’ Achievement By Soledad Giardili;
  45. The Educational Burden of ADHD: Evidence From Student Achievement Test Scores By C. Dannemann; Erkan Goeren
  46. Identification and Estimation of Large Network Games with Private Link Information By Hulya Eraslan; Xun Tang
  47. Markups, City Size, and Exports: Evidence from Japan By KONDO Keisuke
  48. Revitalizing New England cities: remarks at The Governor's Academy Tenth Annual Boston Business Leaders Luncheon in Boston, Massachusetts, April 10, 2018 By Rosengren, Eric S.
  49. Network Search: Climbing the Job Ladder Faster By Marcelo Arbex; Dennis O'Dea; David Wiczer
  50. Estimating Interdependence Across Space, Time and Outcomes in Binary Choice Models Using Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimators By Wucherpfennig, Julian; Kachi, Aya; Bormann, Nils-Christian; Hunziker, Philipp
  51. Determinants of rents in the French private rental housing sector By Ingrid Nappi-Choulet; Julie Le Gallo; Marie-Laure Breuille; Kassoum Ayouba; Camille Grivault
  52. Local multipliers at work By Cerqua, Augusto; Pellegrini, Guido
  53. “A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics” By Oscar Claveria; Enric Monte; Salvador Torra
  54. Preferences for Public Education Spending in Hierarchical Education Systems: Theory and Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries By Debora Di Gioacchino; Laura Sabani; Simone Tedeschi
  55. Government education expenditures, pre-primary education and school performance: A cross-country analysis By Daniela Del Boca; Chiara Monfardini; Sarah Grace See

  1. By: Yesim Aliefendioglu; Sibel Canaz Sevgen; Gizem Var; Harun Tanrivermis
    Abstract: Urban development and shaping of spaces are closely associated with a city’s economic activities and demographic characteristics. After the announcement of Ankara as the capital city in 1923, the size of the city was understood to be very insufficient and a new zoning plan was started to combat the inadequate housing assets and even cooperatives were established to accelerate housing construction for public officers. However, it is noteworthy that the development was too slow until the 1950s, after which date the urban scale grew rapidly due to the growing population and diversifying economic activities, new development areas turned to settlements, and naturally, natural vegetation was rapidly destroyed. Despite the increasing housing stock in the city, the demand for and prices of real estate in general, and particularly housing, are very high, which encourages allocation of new settlement areas as residential housing areas. A process, whereby an increased density in residential areas is provisioned with the new development plans made by the Municipalities, the Housing Development Administration, and the other public authorities, is experienced and with the urban transformation and renewal projects, the current housing stock is being swiftly renewed. In these circumstances, space use and spatial development in the city are managed based on revenue or economic rent rather than public policy and sustainability goals while fringe urban development also leads to increased infrastructure investment and local service costs.In this paper, the population, number of housing, and spatial development relationships in the 1923-2017 period were first dealt with based on macro data and the results of that study were analyzed in integration with remote sensing data and the man-made structures and the development in residential areas identified with satellite data were comparatively evaluated. ın the second stage, factors affecting the change in the total land assets in the province were examined with a regression model and it was established that the process of transformation of land to land lot was shaped by the impact of demographic factors. In order to regulate the use of space at the provincial and regional levels, there seems to be a requirement to primarily control the migration to the city; manage urban development based on public policies; restructure planning policies on equitable sharing of the economic rent created by planning activities in the city; and t
    Keywords: housing development; Land Use Change; public policy requirements; Urban space and development; vegetation and man-made structures
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  2. By: Aureo de Paula; Imran Rasul; Pedro CL Souza
    Abstract: It is almost self-evident that social interactions can determine economic behavior and outcomes. Yet, information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present methods to recover information on the entire structure of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between individuals. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are all globally identified. We describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the model based on the Adaptive Elastic Net GMM method. We showcase our method in Monte Carlo simulations using two stylized and two real world network structures. Finally, we employ our method to study tax competition across US states. We find the identified network structure of tax competition differs markedly from the common assumption of tax competition between geographically neighboring states. We analyze the identified social interactions matrix to provide novel insights into the long-standing debate on the relative roles of factor mobility and yardstick competition in driving tax setting behavior across states. Most broadly, our method shows how the analysis of social interactions can be usefully extended to economic realms where no network data exists.
    Keywords: social networks, panel data
    JEL: C18 C31 D85 H71
    Date: 2018–03–22
  3. By: Justine Jing Wang; Alla Koblyakova; Piyush Tiwari; John S. Croucher
    Abstract: Background: According to International Real Estate Group Knight Frank, Chinese cities account for the top eight rankings in Global Residential Cities Index, as indicated that regional cities such as Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing grew over 30%in year 2016. (Lenaghan, 2016) Since regional house prices play pivotal roles in China’s regional economy as well as in Chinese’ daily lives, to understand regional house price dynamics is of utmost importance.Research questions: This paper poses two research questions:RQ1.Is there house price spill over effects among the top 13 cities in China?RQ2.Is there regional house price heterogeneity between the first and second - tier housing markets in China?Research methodology: The paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as the Principal Component Method, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Generalised Impulse Response tests to provide an in depth understanding of regional house price dynamics in China.Findings: The empirical findings reveal that first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and second tier city Chongqing, function as a source of spillovers. Spillover effects occur among all of the target cities in China.Further, the result indicates there is close relationship between house prices in two major segments of China housing markets and macroeconomic variables including interest rate (IR), China share market performance (CNSHARE), unemployment rate (UNEMP) and GDP in China. Moreover, heterogeneity on house price dynamics was identified. Second tier top 8 cities housing prices are self – corrected to long run equilibrium at quicker speed than those in first tier cities. This may reflect the information transmission mechanism in second - tier cities are much simpler than those in first - tier bigger cities.Originality and value: The foremost contribution of this paper is that it is the first rigorous study of house price dynamics and the spill over effects of the top 13 cities at the first and second - tier housing markets in China. Additionally, the data set renders the study of particular interest, because it incorporates an analysis of the "golden era" of China’s prosperity performance of house prices from 2003 – 2013, and "new normal" age (2014 onwards) slowed down period.
    Keywords: Interest rates; Long run equilibrium; regional house price dynamics; Spill over
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  4. By: Paul Verstraten (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Gerard Verweij (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Peter Zwaneveld (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: The existence of an urban wage growth premium is a well-established empirical fact. This article challenges the conventional view that faster wage growth for urban workers is caused by human capital spillovers. Instead, we find that the positive association between city size and individual wage growth is to a large extent driven by sorting of workers and firms, with inherently higher wage growth, into bigger cities. Having controlled for spatial sorting, we conclude that only young workers experience significant urban wage growth benefits. Wage level benefits of urban areas are important to all types of workers, especially the highly educated.
    JEL: R23 J31
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Simona Iammarino; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Michael Storper
    Abstract: Regional economic divergence has become a threat to economic progress, social cohesion and political stability in Europe. Market processes and policies that are supposed to spread prosperity and opportunity are no longer sufficiently effective. The evidence points to the existence of several different modes of regional economic performance in Europe, responding to different development challenges and opportunities. Both mainstream and heterodox theories have gaps in their ability to explain the existence of these different regional trajectories and the weakness of the convergence processes among them. Therefore, a different approach is required, one that strengthens Europe?s strongest regions but develops new approaches to promote opportunity in industrial declining and less-developed regions. There is ample new theory and evidence to support such an approach, which we have labelled 'place-sensitive distributed development policy'.
    Keywords: Regions, inequality, economic divergence, place-sensitive development, European Union
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2018–04
  6. By: Susan Dynarski; Daniel Hubbard; Brian Jacob; Silvia Robles
    Abstract: In this paper, we leverage randomized admissions lotteries to estimate the impact of attending a National Heritage Academy (NHA) charter school. NHA is the fourth largest forprofit charter operator in the country, enrolling more than 56,000 students in 86 schools across 9 states. Unlike several of the other large for-profit companies that operate virtual charters, NHA only has standard bricks-and-mortar schools. Our estimates indicate that attending a NHA charter school for one additional year is associated with a 0.04 standard deviation increase in math achievement. Effects on other outcomes are smaller and not statistically significant. In contrast to most prior charter school research which find the largest benefits for low-income, underrepresented minorities in urban areas, the benefits of attending an NHA charter network are concentrated among non-poor students attending charter schools outside urban areas. Using data from a survey of school administrators in traditional public and charter schools, we document several aspects of school organization, culture and instructional practice that might explain these positive effects.
    JEL: I0 I21 J0
    Date: 2018–03
  7. By: Wangsness, Paal Brevik (Institute of Transport Economics – Norwegian Centre for Transport Research); Proost, Stef (Department of Economics-KULeuven); Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold (Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: Norway has the world’s highest share of electric vehicles in its vehicle stock – in particular battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEVs have reached a 20% share of the new car sales in Norway, thanks to a set of policies that include high purchase taxes for fossil fueled cars, and for BEVs, free parking, no tolls, and the right to drive on the bus lanes. This paper uses a stylized model of the transport market in the greater Oslo area (1.2 million inhabitants) to analyze transport policies. First, we explore the medium-term effects of the current BEV friendly policies. Second, the model is used to explore the potential of better pricing of car and public transport use, and of better car purchase taxes. We find that the current policies lead to massive penetration of BEVs and therefore to a strong reduction of CO2 emissions. However, they also lead to much more congestion and a decrease in the use of public transport. Better policies require efficient pricing of road congestion, a better use of public transport, and provide incentives for consumers to choose the most efficient combinations of cars. Such policies lead to a less extreme penetration of BEVs, and lower CO2 emissions reductions than the current transport policies. However, they do achieve a better transport equilibrium and substantial resource cost savings, leading to higher welfare levels.
    Keywords: electric vehicles; climate policy; urban transport policy; transport modeling
    JEL: H23 H71 Q54 Q58 R41 R48
    Date: 2018–04–13
  8. By: Theresa Katharina Kotulla
    Abstract: The demand for residential housing in Europe has increased in recent years. In Germany, affordable housing space in growing regions is becoming scarce. This results in many household types hardly being able to provide themselves with adequate living space. Although there is a high demand for housing with rental control, the relevant housing stock has declined in recent years. Considering the rising demand and the simultaneously declining stock of subsidized housing, the underlying conditions for the profitability of housing projects with rental control must be optimized. In 2006, there was a redistribution of responsibilitiesbetween the federation and the states in Germany. As a result, the responsibility for subsidized housing was transferred from the federation to the single states. This has the advantage that the laws can correspond to regional needs, but the different underlying conditions are hardly comparable. With regard to the population and the economy, there is an increased interest in research and there are numerous publications concerning publicly subsidized residential housing. Although, currently there is nocertainty regarding the influence of the nation-wide framework conditions on the typology of subsidizedhousing projects. Therefore, there is a need for a critical investigation of the aforementioned uncertainty.This paper is part of a PhD at the Chair for Real Estate Development at the RWTH Aachen University, within which the regional and local differences between the laws and regulations are examined. The overall objective is to analyze to what extent the realized types of dwellings vary in selected federal states. Furthermore, it will be proven if this variation can be justified by differences in the funding guidelines. Within this paper the named issues and results are exemplary described for the federal state North-Rhine-Westphalia. The aim is to investigate the conditions of subsidized housing and to determine whether they influence the realized housing typologies.The state-specific conditions as well as the various regional regulations of the state North Rhine-Westphaliawere analyzed. Additionally, this examination was supplemented by a real estate analysis of recently built residential housing projects in the German region. Various project partners support the examination. Thehousing types of the individual case studies were empirically examined. Empirical data of subsidized residential units was therefore determined and the influence of the various conditions for publicly subsidedresidential construction on the typology of the accommodations was investigated.Based on this investigation, it seems that there is a strong influence of the laws and offers for social housing projects on the realized apartments in North-Rhine-Westphalia
    Keywords: Accommodation typologies; Housing Policy; Real Estate Development; Social Housing; Subsidized housing
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  9. By: Jesús Rodríguez (Department of Economics, University Pablo de Olavide); José L. Torres (Department of Economics, University of Málaga)
    Abstract: Road congestion is a negative externality associated to automobile use and can negatively affects drivers’ utility in several directions, such as delay time and wasted fuel, but also can have a negative impact on aggregate productivity. This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to study the interactions between roads, traffic, congestion and productivity over the business cycle. In our model households receive services from vehicles, depending on the flow kilometers driving and on the stock of cars, and they do not take into account their own impact on congestion, which also depends on the stock of roads. Following a positive aggregate productivity shock, traffic density and congestion tend to rise, so dampening its positive effects on aggregate activity. The model is then used to study the process behind the so-called ”Fundamental Law of Highways Congestion”, which states that an increase in the stock of roads produces a traffic density rise of same proportion, thus leaving congestion unaffected in the long run. Our model economy reproduce a rise in output in response to a road capacity expansion and predicts a traffic flow elasticity of 0.172, as a direct consequence of the positive impact of the higher stock of roads on economic activity. Finally, we derive a Pigouvian tax schedule that internalizes the social costs of congestion
    Keywords: Road traffic; Congestion; The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion; Dynamic General Equilibrium model
    JEL: E32 R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2018–04
  10. By: Sanyal, Romola; Ferreri, Mara
    Abstract: The ‘sharing economy’ has become a new buzzword in urban life as digital technology companies set up online platforms to link together people and un- or underutilised assets with those seeking to rent them for short periods of time. While cloaked under the rhetoric of ‘sharing’, the exchanges they foster are usually profit-driven. These economic activities are having profound impacts on urban environments as they disrupt traditional forms of hospitality, transport, service industry and housing. While critical debates have focused on the challenges that sharing economy activities bring to existing labour and economic practices, it is necessary to acknowledge that they also have increasingly significant impacts on planning policy and urban governance. Using the case of Airbnb in London, this article looks at how these sharing or platform economy companies are involved in encouraging governments to change existing regulations, in this case by deregulating short-term letting. This has important implications for planning enforcement. We examine how the challenges around obtaining data to enforce new regulations are being addressed by local councils who struggle to balance corporate interests with public good. Finally, we address proposals for using algorithms and big data as means of urban governance and argue that the schism between regulation and enforcement is opening up new digitally mediated spaces of informal practices in cities.
    Keywords: Data; governance; housing; planning; sharing economy; technology/smart cities
    JEL: J1 L81
    Date: 2018–02–28
  11. By: Ioulia Ossokina (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Coen Teulings; Jan Svitak
    Abstract: This paper is the first to document empirically that urban shopping areas have a pronounced centre where the rents are the highest, and a negative rent gradient. We use this insight to build and test empirically a simple theoretical model of the competition between the residential and the retail land in a city. The model predicts that rents and occupancy rates on the edges of shopping areas are most sensitive to changes in economic conditions. Demand shocks may lead to transformations between retail and residential land use, mostly at the edge, and to a contraction or expansion of shopping areas. The model predictions are tested on unique data on the location and characteristics of all retail and non-retail properties within 300 largest shopping areas in the Netherlands in 2004-2014, a period including the Great Recession. With every 100 metre distance from the centre of a shopping area rents fall, on average, by 15 percent. Shopping streets, areas located on attractive sites and areas offering free parking have a flatter distance decay. The vacancy rate on the edge of a shopping area is almost twice as high as in the centre. During the Great Recession some 2% of the retail properties were transformed into other use, mostly on the edges of the shopping areas.
    JEL: L81 R13 R3 R4
    Date: 2017–06
  12. By: Paul Verstraten (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Gerard Verweij (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Peter Zwaneveld (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This article argues that the spatial scope of agglomeration economies is much more complex than is often assumed in the agglomeration literature. We provide insight into this issue by analyzing panel data on individual wages with a high level of spatial detail. The results show that agglomeration on short distances (<5 km) does not significantly affect wages, whereas it has a significant and positive effect on medium distances (5-10 km). This effect attenuates rapidly across geographic space, becoming insignificant after 40-80 km. These results, however, do not imply that nearby agglomeration is irrelevant for productivity. Regions must meet a critical threshold of nearby agglomeration in order to benefit from agglomeration on further distances. Furthermore, this article finds no evidence that foreign economic mass affects wages in the Netherlands, which suggests that national borders are still a substantial barrier for economic interaction. This article is a revised version of a paper published in February 2017. The original version of the article can be found here .
    JEL: R12 J24 J31
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Huber, Kilian
    Abstract: Lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them, but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate. This paper moves beyond firm-level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large German bank on firms and counties. I construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic, postwar breakup of the bank. I present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking relationships, through lower aggregate demand and agglomeration spillovers in counties exposed to the lending cut. Output and employment remained persistently low even after bank lending had normalized. Innovation and productivity fell, consistent with the persistent effects.
    JEL: E32 E44 G21 G32 R11 R23
    Date: 2018–03–01
  14. By: Colin Green; John Spencer Heywood; Maria Navarro Paniagua
    Abstract: We examine the London congestion charge introduced in 2003 and demonstrate significant reductions in a number of pollutants relative to controls. We even find evidence of reductions per mile driven suggesting amelioration of a congestion externality. Yet, we find a robust countervailing increase in harmful NO2 likely reflecting the disproportionate share of diesel vehicles exempt from the congestion charge. This unintended consequence informs on-going concern about pollution from diesel based vehicles and provides a cautionary note regarding substitution effects implicit in congestion charging schemes.
    Keywords: Pollution, Traffic, Congestion Charging
    JEL: I18 R48 H27
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Remco Mocking (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Benedikt Vogt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Wolter Hassink
    Abstract: We study the effect of housing collateral on entrepreneurial lending in the Netherlands. This residential collateral channel is especially relevant for sole proprietors for whom there is no legal distinction between the owner and the business. We make use of unique administrative data on outstanding bank credit of all Dutch sole proprietorships in the period 2007 - 2012. Our estimates indicate that home owning entrepreneurs were hit less severe in the times of crisis than renting entrepreneurs. Relative to renters, during the economic crisis, the incidence of having outstanding bank credit decreased 2% percent less for home owners. Home owners also experience a 40 basis points weaker increase in costs of credit compared to renters. Within the group of home owners higher LTVs only go along with higher prices during the crisis relative to lower LTVs.
    JEL: G23 R2 R31 L26
    Date: 2017–05
  16. By: Adam M. Guren; Arvind Krishnamurthy; Timothy J. McQuade
    Abstract: How can mortgages be redesigned to reduce housing market volatility, consumption volatility, and default? How does mortgage design interact with monetary policy? We answer these questions using a quantitative equilibrium life cycle model with aggregate shocks, long-term mortgages, and an equilibrium housing market, focusing on designs that index payments to monetary policy. Designs that raise mortgage payments in booms and lower them in recessions do better than designs with fixed mortgage payments. The welfare benefits are quantitatively substantial: ARMs improve household welfare relative to FRMs by the equivalent of 0.83 percent of annual consumption under a monetary regime in which the central bank lowers real interest rates in a bust. Among designs that reduce payments in a bust, we show that those that front-load the payment reductions and concentrate them in recessions outperform designs that spread payment reductions over the life of the mortgage. Front-loading alleviates household liquidity constraints in states where they are most binding, reducing default and stimulating housing demand by new homeowners. To isolate this channel, we compare an FRM with a built-in option to be converted to an ARM with an FRM with an option to be refinanced at the prevailing FRM rate. Under these two contracts, the present value of a lender's loan falls by roughly an equal amount, as these contracts primarily differ in the timing of expected repayments. The FRM that can be converted to an ARM, which front loads payment reductions, improves household welfare by four times as much.
    JEL: E4 G0 G01 G2
    Date: 2018–03
  17. By: Justine Jing Wang; Alla Koblyakova; Piyush Tiwari; John S. Croucher
    Abstract: Background: Over the last two decades China’s housing price index has risen by at least 70%. According to Reuters, average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose a record 9.6%in the year to October 2013; it was the tenth straight month of year-on-year increases. In 2016, Chinese cities account for the top eight rankings in Global Residential Cities Index according to International Real Estate Group Knight Frank. (Lenaghan, 2016) The accelerated growth is concentrated in Tier 1 cities and Tier 2 cities. In view of such soaring prices, the questions of house price dynamics and housing bubbles need to be addressed at China housing market, especially the segment where house prices surge the mos.Research questions: This paper poses two research questions:RQ1.What are the main drivers of China house prices?RQ2.Is there a bubble in China’s housing market?Research methodology: The paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Granger Causality, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Principal Component method to provide an in depth understanding of house price dynamics and bubbles in China. Thorough analysis has been performed on the diagnostic concerns and potential econometric estimate issues.Findings: The empirical results presented reveal China house prices are driven primarily by three key factors: interest rates, GDP, China share market index. It finds these main drivers have long term equilibrium in relation to house prices, and any short term disequilibrium always self-corrects over the long term due to economic forces. The existence of long term equilibrium in the housing market suggests it is unlikely to be in a bubble in China. (Diba & Grossman, 1988; Flood & Hodrick, 1986).China house price performance reacts strongly to interest rates and share market performance, reflecting both the importance of house financing and the close relationship between the share market and the real estate market.Originality and value: The principal contribution of this paper is that it is the first rigorous study of housing bubbles in China at the national level, based on the top 13 cities’ house prices. Key policy implications presented in this research include the need for governmental affordability programs, and a balanced and complementary combination of financial policies and monetary policy decision making.
    Keywords: Bubble; House price dynamics; Interest rates; Long run equilibrium
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  18. By: Minns, Chris; Rosés, Joan R.
    Abstract: Economic historians have long signalled the importance of location-specific resource booms in the Canadian development experience, but a full analysis of the dynamics of Canada's internal income dynamics is conspicuously absent. This article presents comprehensive estimates of regional inequality in Canada from 1890 to 2006 and assesses the sources of convergence and divergence across Canadian provinces. Our convergence decompositions support the central role of resource booms in accounting for regional income dynamics, and show that structural change contributing relatively little to the development process. Our findings are in sharp contrast to the historical experience of other countries, including the United States.
    Keywords: Canada; random growth theory; Regional Inequality; resource booms; structural change
    JEL: N91 N92 R12
    Date: 2018–03
  19. By: Catarina Ângelo; Ana Balcão Reis
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of grading practices on the gender gap in student achievement. We examine the gender difference in the difference between teacher grading and scores on national exams to test whether there are gender differences associated with different grading systems. We use Portuguese data on 21 subjects across humanities and sciences for the whole population of students taking exams at the end of the 6th, 9th, 11th and 12th grades from 2007 to 2016. Results show that the difference in scores between teacher grading and exams is on average positive for boys and girls, but higher for the latter. This is verified across the whole distribution of exam scores. Thus, our results indicate that a grading system based on exams favors boys while one based on classroom evaluation favors girls.JEL codes: I21, I24,J16
    Keywords: student achievement; grading practices; gender gap
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Efraim Benmelech; Nittai K. Bergman; Hyunseob Kim
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of local-level labor market concentration on wages. Using plant-level U.S. Census data over the period 1977–2009, we find that: (1) local-level employer concentration exhibits substantial cross-sectional and time-series variation and increases over time; (2) consistent with labor market monopsony power, there is a negative relation between local-level employer concentration and wages that is more pronounced at high levels of concentration and increases over time; (3) the negative relation between labor market concentration and wages is stronger when unionization rates are low; (4) the link between productivity growth and wage growth is stronger when labor markets are less concentrated; and (5) exposure to greater import competition from China (the “China Shock”) is associated with more concentrated labor markets. These five results emphasize the role of local-level labor market monopsonies in influencing firm wage-setting.
    Date: 2018–04
  21. By: Orsatti, Gianluca; Perruchas, François; Consoli, Davide; Quatraro, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The present paper investigates whether and through which channels green public procurement (GPP) stimulates local environmental innovation capacity. To this end, we use detailed data sources on green patents and procurement expenditure at the level of US Commuting Zones for the period 2000-2011. We also check for the moderating effects of local labor market composition in the relation between green public procurement and green innovation capacity. Lastly, we exploit the richness of patent information to test for differential effects of green public procurement on different classes of green technologies. The main finding is that GPP is an important driver in explaining the growth of local green-tech stock. The positive effect of GPP is mainly driven by expenditures for procured green services and is magnified by the local presence of high shares of abstract- intensive occupations. When separately considering diverse kinds of green technologies, we do find evidence of a more pronounced effect of GPP on the growth of local knowledge stocks of mitigation technologies.
    Date: 2018–04
  22. By: Colas, Mark (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: I analyze the dynamic effects of immigration by estimating an equilibrium model of local labor markets in the US. The model includes firms in multiple cities and sectors which combine capital, skilled and unskilled labor in production, and forward-looking workers who choose their sector and location each period as a dynamic discrete choice. A counterfactual unskilled immigration inflow leads to an initial wage drop for unskilled workers and a wage increase for skilled workers. These effects dissipate rapidly as unskilled workers migrate away from heavily affected cities and workers shift toward unskilled intensive industries. Effects on lifetime utility are small.
    Keywords: Immigration; Labor market dynamics; Local labor markets
    JEL: J2 J31 J62
    Date: 2018–01–29
  23. By: Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
    Abstract: While economic forces drive much of international migration, social factors are known to significantly facilitate movement. By providing information and other resources, networks reduce the cost and risk associated with international migration. The influence of migration networks, however, remains a black box that needs to be unpacked simply because these have been treated in the past mostly as unidimensional. In reality, however, networks do not only vary in type but also have structures. This study seeks to examine the structure of migration networks in a migrant-sending village in the Philippines. It also aims to relate this structure to the diffusion of migration behavior in the village over time through a socio-historical lens--an unconventional approach in the analysis of international migration perpetuation. Results show that the density of the kinship and friendship ties and the network position of pioneer migrants in the village affect the current distribution of migration behavior in the area. Know more about the factors affecting international migration structures in the Philippines through this paper.
    Keywords: Philippines, migration networks, international migration, network structure, network analysis, graph theory
    Date: 2018
  24. By: Eric Anderson; Sergio Rebelo; Arlene Wong
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide direct evidence on the behavior markups in the retail sector across space and time. Markups are measured using gross margins. We consider three levels of aggregation: the retail sector as a whole, firm-level data, and product- level data. We find that: (1) markups are relatively stable over time and mildly procyclical; (2) there is large regional dispersion in markups; (3) there is a positive cross-sectional correlation between local income and local markups; and (4) differences in markups across regions are explained by differences in assortment, not by deviations from uniform pricing. We propose a simple model that is consistent with these facts.
    JEL: E3
    Date: 2018–03
  25. By: Alex-Petersen, Jesper (Lund University); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University and IZA); Rooth, Dan-Olof (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: We examine the long-term impact of a policy that introduced free and nutritious school lunches in Swedish primary schools. For this purpose, we use historical data on the gradual implementation of the policy across municipalities and employ a difference-in-differences design to estimate the impact of this lunch policy on a broad range of medium and longterm outcomes, including lifetime income, health, cognitive skills, and education. Our results show that the school lunch program generated substantial long-term benefits, where pupils exposed to the program during their entire primary school period have 3 percent greater life-time earnings. In addition, we find the effect to be greater for pupils that were exposed at earlier ages and for pupils from poor households. Finally, exposure to the school lunch program had substantial effects on educational attainment and health and these effects can explain a large part of the return to school lunches.
    Keywords: nutrition; early life; childhood; long-term; income; causal
    JEL: I12 I38 J24
    Date: 2018–04–09
  26. By: Sonia Adam-Ledunois (NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - URN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Romuald Mansuy (AUTRES); Sébastien Damart (DRM - MLAB - Dauphine Recherches en Management - MLAB - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Stakeholders involved in social housing and social integration are numerous (governmental services, non-profit organizations, volunteers, local authorities, etc.). These multiple actors, with heterogeneous resources (coming partly from the government, partly from other institutions) have different areas of intervention, which does not always make actions effective, the ultimate goal being obviously to increase social utility or societal utility created. In order to both increase knowledge about housing and social integration, and improve coordination between stakeholders, the French government designed and made available to local actors a methodology for a shared territorial diagnosis, called "360° diagnosis". In this communication, we present two case studies corresponding to the deployment of this tool in two regions. We propose a critical analysis of the implementation of this tool, by focusing on its uses and effects, this next to its philosophy and its initial intentions.
    Keywords: management tool,public management,Stakeholders,Territorial diagnosis,social innovation,cooperation
    Date: 2016–09
  27. By: Umbach, Tim
    Abstract: This work explores which spatial patterns of crime exist in Germany and what their socio-economic determinants are. This is done using the PKS crime statistic for six types of crime on the county level for the years 2003-2014. To the authors knowledge, this is the first time crime in Germany has been studied with such granular data on such a broad scale. Due to the granularity of the data set, spatial dependencies of crime and its covariates became very apparent, which made it necessary to use a random effects spatial durbin model (SDM) to model regional variation of crime. With this, I was able to show that the factors explaining crime in one county also spill-over and affect crime in a neighboring one. To my knowledge, this hasn't been done before either for Germany. Also, I was able to confirm earlier findings that the Becker-Ehrlich model works well explaining property crime in Germany and the social disorganization theory explaining violent and drug crime, with the routine activity mostly working in both cases. Also as a first for Germany, there is some evidence that the broken-window theory applies and that disorder can drive crime to an extend.
    Keywords: Crime, Germany, Spatial Econometrics, Spatial, Spillover
    JEL: C23 J68 K4 K42
    Date: 2017–10–06
  28. By: GLUMAC Brano; DES ROSIERS François
    Abstract: Automated valuation models have been in use at least for the last fifty years in both academia and practice, while a proper definition was coined only in the last decade. This could be mostly backed by the fact that research done on the automated valuation models is mostly empirical and evidently lacking a conceptual framework. This imply two-sided contribution of this paper, a taxonomy and a conceptual framework.
    Keywords: automated valuation model; computer-assisted mass appraisal; real estate valuation decision support systems; automated valuation system; non-hierarchical taxonomy; conceptual model
    JEL: C50 D46 G32 L85 O21 Q15 R15 R20 R30
    Date: 2018–04
  29. By: Brian Gill; Charles Tilley; Emilyn Whitesell; Mariel Finucane; Liz Potamites; Sean Corcoran
    Abstract: Using randomized admissions lotteries to conduct an experimental analysis, we find that the Democracy Prep charter-school network produces substantial positive impacts on rates of voter registration and election participation after students become old enough to vote.
    Keywords: school choice, charter schools, voter participation, voter registration, civic education
    JEL: I
  30. By: Davis, Elizabeth E. (University of Minnesota); Lee, Won Fy (University of Minnesota); Sojourner, Aaron J. (University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This study proposes new family-centered measures of access to early care and education (ECE) services with respect to quantity, cost, and quality and uses them to assess disparities in access across locations and socio-demographic groups in Minnesota. These measures are distance-based and use available geographic data to account for the fact that families can cross arbitrary administrative boundaries, such as census tract or ZIP code lines, and thus better reflect the real experiences of families than conventional area-based measures. Combining synthetic family locations simulated from Census demographic and geographic data and information on ECE provider locations, we calculate travel time between the locations of families with young children and ECE providers to measure families' access to providers of different types. The results yield a map of areas with low and high relative ECE access. The average family in Minnesota lives in a location where there are nearly two children for every nearby slot of licensed capacity, however, access to ECE supply varies considerably at the local level. The supply measure can also serve as a weight useful in computing family-centered measures of ECE quality and access costs, incorporating both prices and travel costs, to further characterize the local ECE market from the perspective of families. Improving measures of variation in families' access to ECE quantity, cost, and quality is valuable as policymakers consider expansions to public supports for early learning and ECE entrepreneurs decide where to invest.
    Keywords: child care, spatial analysis, public facility location, services
    JEL: J13 R12 R53 H4 L84
    Date: 2018–03
  31. By: Raj Chetty; Nathaniel Hendren; Maggie R. Jones; Sonya R. Porter
    Abstract: We study the sources of racial and ethnic disparities in income using de-identified longitudinal data covering nearly the entire U.S. population from 1989-2015. We document three sets of results. First, the intergenerational persistence of disparities varies substantially across racial groups. For example, Hispanic Americans are moving up significantly in the income distribution across generations because they have relatively high rates of intergenerational income mobility. In contrast, black Americans have substantially lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites, leading to large income disparities that persist across generations. Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven entirely by large differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men; there are no such differences between black and white women. Second, differences in family characteristics such as parental marital status, education, and wealth explain very little of the black-white income gap conditional on parent income. Differences in ability also do not explain the patterns of intergenerational mobility we document. Third, the black-white gap persists even among boys who grow up in the same neighborhood. Controlling for parental income, black boys have lower incomes in adulthood than white boys in 99% of Census tracts. Both black and white boys have better outcomes in low-poverty areas, but black-white gaps are larger on average for boys who grow up in such neighborhoods. The few areas in which black-white gaps are relatively small tend to be low-poverty neighborhoods with low levels of racial bias among whites and high rates of father presence among blacks. Black males who move to such neighborhoods earlier in childhood earn more and are less likely to be incarcerated. However, fewer than 5% of black children grow up in such environments. These findings suggest that reducing the black-white income gap will require efforts whose impacts cross neighborhood and class lines and increase upward mobility specifically for black men.
    JEL: H0 J0
    Date: 2018–03
  32. By: Nguyen-Ones, Mai (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Steen, Frode (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: Applying detailed consecutive daily micro data at the gasoline station level from Sweden we estimate a structural model to uncover the degree of competition in the gasoline retail market. We find that retailers do exercise market power, but despite the high upstream concentration, the market power is very limited on the downstream level. The degree of market power varies with both the distance to the nearest station and the local density of gasoline stations. A higher level of service tends to raise a seller’s market power; self-service stations have close to no market power. Contractual form and brand identity also seem to matter. We find a clear result: local station characteristics significantly affect the degree of market power. Our results indicate that local differences in station characteristics can more than offset the average market Power found for the whole market.
    Keywords: Gasoline markets; market Power; markup estimation; local market competition
    JEL: D22 L13 L25 L81
    Date: 2018–04–13
  33. By: Dupor, William D. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Karabarbounis, Marios; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mehkari, M. Saif
    Abstract: We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the estimated positive local multiplier, a result that distinguishes our incomplete markets model from models with complete markets. The aggregate consumption multiplier is 0.4, which implies an output multiplier higher than one. The aggregate consumption multiplier is almost twice the local estimate because trade linkages propagate government spending across regions.
    Keywords: Consumer Spending; Fiscal Multiplier; Regional Variation; Heterogeneous Agents
    JEL: E21 E62 H31 H71
    Date: 2018–03–16
  34. By: Wiljan van den Berge (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Jonneke Bolhaar (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Roel van Elk (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: We study knowledge spillovers from European universities and other research organizations using data from patent citations at the EPO. Using matching techniques to construct a sample of control patents, we show that the probability to cite a university patent declines with distance. In particular, we fi nd a sharp cut-o ff at around 25 kilometers. For longer distances the probability to cite a university patent is more or less constant. For other research organizations we find no evidence that distance plays a role. Country borders are shown to play an important role in restricting the diff usion of patents of both universities and other research organizations. These results are in line with recent literature for the U.S. and suggest that knowledge spillovers and tacit knowledge are important when using knowledge embodied in university patents.
    JEL: O33 O34 I23
    Date: 2017–04
  35. By: Robin Lindsey (University of Alberta [Edmonton]); André De Palma (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hugo Silva (Instituto Superior Técnico - Technical University of Lisbon)
    Abstract: Individual users often control a significant share of total traffic flows. Examples include airlines, rail and maritime freight shippers, urban goods delivery companies and passenger transportation network companies. These users have an incentive to internalize the congestion delays their own vehicles impose on each other by adjusting the timing of their trips. We investigate simultaneous trip-timing decisions by large users and small users in a dynamic model of congestion. Unlike previous work, we allow for heterogeneity of trip-timing preferences and for the presence of small users such as individual commuters and fringe airlines. We derive the optimal fleet departure schedule for a large user as a best-response to the aggregate departure rate of other users. We show that when the vehicles in a large user's fleet have a sufficiently dispersed distribution of desired arrival times, there may exist a pure-strategy Nash-equilibrium (PSNE) in which the large user schedules vehicles when there is a queue. This resolves the problem of non-existence of a PSNE identified in Silva et al. (2017) for the case of symmetric large users. We also develop some examples to identify under what conditions a PSNE exists. The examples illustrate how self-internalization of congestion by a large user can affect the nature of equilibrium and the travel costs that it and other users incur.
    Keywords: departure-time decisions,bottleneck model,congestion,schedule delay costs,large users,user heterogeneity,existence of Nash equilibrium $
    Date: 2018–04–06
  36. By: Gianna Claudia Giannelli; Chiara Rapallini
    Abstract: We find a positive relationship between math attitude and students' math scores using data obtained from PISA 2012 and a 2SLS model. Math attitude is approximated by three subjective measures: parental attitude and student instrumental motivation, which assess beliefs about math importance for the job market, and student math anxiety. The presence of one family member in a math-related career is our instrumental variable. Regardless of the proxy that is used for math attitude, an increase of one standard deviation increases the student score by at least 40 points, the equivalent of one year of schooling.
    Keywords: arental attitude toward math, Student instrumental motivation, Math anxiety, Math-related career, Math scores.
    JEL: I21 J13 J24
    Date: 2018
  37. By: Lattof, Samantha R.
    Abstract: Background: Policymakers and program implementers require high-quality data on migrants and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); however, a shortage of high-quality data exists in these settings. Sampling migrant populations requires better techniques. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) may be one such solution. Objective: Using Ghana as a case study, the objectives of this paper are to: 1) assess RDS recruitment productivity, network size, and ties of internal migrants; 2) test for homophily; and 3) detail the successes of and challenges to implementing RDS in Ghana and how these lessons can be applied to migrant populations in other LMIC settings. Methods: This study used RDS to sample 625 rural–urban female migrants working as market porters (kayayei) in Accra, Ghana. Results: This study generated the most comprehensive data set on kayayei to date. Network size increases as participants become more educated and migrate more often to Accra. Ethnic group membership is an important determinant of recruitment, with certain groups preferring to recruit from within. Employing members of the kayayei population to collect data built crucial trust. Conclusions: Whilst RDS is not a one-size-fits-all solution for sampling hard-to-reach migrants in LMIC, it can be a powerful tool to uncover and to recruit hard-to-reach migrant populations. In countries with multiple ethnolinguistic groups, recruiting a migrant population with greater ethnolinguistic overlap may facilitate quicker equilibrium. Contribution: This study expands the evidence base on use of RDS among migrant populations in LMIC and provides lessons learned to assist other researchers implementing RDS in LMIC settings.
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2018–03–16
  38. By: Anja Deelen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Sonny Kuijpers (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the quantitative effects of two teacher traineeships that were implemented in the Netherlands to address shortages of fully qualified teachers in secondary education. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effects of being selected to participate in one of the traineeships. We find no significant local average treatment effects of being selected on the probabilities of enrolling into academic teacher training, obtaining a full teaching qualification, and on working in education, although the point estimates are positive for the first two outcome variables. The lack of significant results may partially be due to our small sample size. However, t he specific design of the traineeship programs, that required candidates to find a school by themselves, may also contribute to these findings.
    JEL: I20 I21 I28
    Date: 2018–02
    Date: 2018
  40. By: Nora Paulus (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Patrice Pieretti (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Benteng Zou (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on intertemporal tax competition between jurisdictions that differ in size. Given that the existing literature is mainly based on static models, it is in- teresting to investigate which new insights tax competition in an intertemporal setting may provide. In this respect, how does the fact that agents anticipate possible future changes, once they moved capital abroad, modify their behavior and the tax policy of the competing jurisdictions? Does tax competition become more intense? Are capital outflows and tax losses incurred by high tax jurisdictions exacerbated ? To answer these questions, we assume that a small and a large country compete for internationally mobile capital within a two-period model. We demonstrate that tax competition is less fierce in an intertemporal setting relative to a static one. It also appears that the tax loss of the large country induced by tax competition is higher relative to a static model. This means that tax competition becomes more deleterious for the country that suffers from capital outflows.
    Keywords: Intertemporal tax competition, Mobile capital, Home attachment, Country size asymmetry
    JEL: F21 H21 H73
    Date: 2018
  41. By: Vakhshtayn, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In this text, the main attention is paid to the conceptualization of collective memory in application to a megalopolis. Our task is to understand how collective memory structures the practice of using public spaces, how it allows us to redefine narratives and, accordingly, collective definitions of metropolitan areas. Based on the analysis carried out, a conclusion is made about the influence of memory policies on the ways of appropriating spaces in modern large cities.
    Date: 2018–03
  42. By: Ali Palali (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Bas Straathof (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Rinske Windig (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: The rise of online trade alters the role of distance between (potential) buyers and sellers. We use data from eBay subsidiary, one of the largest online trading platforms in the Netherlands, to estimate how distance affects the probability of a transaction between small geographical regions. We find that distance negatively and modestly affects the probability of having a transaction between two regions, and that the distribution of this probability is highly skewed: ranging from a change of 0.000 to -0.008 percentage points per marginal kilometer. The unconditional probability of a transaction is 27 percent. Distance is less influential for: advertisements with more photos advertisements placed by high-frequency advertisers for new goods in comparison to second hand goods. This suggests that information frictions might be the driving force behind the distance effect on online trade in the Netherlands.
    JEL: D44 R12
    Date: 2017–10
  43. By: Raoul van Maarseveen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Nikolaos Terzidis; Raquel Ortega - Argiles
    Abstract: Recent literature documents the pervasiveness of job polarization in the labor markets of the developed world. However, relatively little is known about polarization on a sub-national level. We exploit extensive data on both genders from Statistics Netherlands to confirm polarization as an important trend in the Dutch national labor market between 1999 and 2012. Furthermore, our sub-national analysis reveals considerable spatial heterogeneity among local labor markets. The degree of urbanization plays an important role; regions that are initially more urbanized are more likely to exhibit polarization. Finally, using a skill-based approach we report evidence supporting the routinization hypothesis as an important source of polarization.
    JEL: J21 J24
    Date: 2017–11
  44. By: Soledad Giardili (Queen Mary University of London);
    Abstract: higher education institutions to implement a 50 percent admission quota for historically disadvantaged students. I study the implications of this regulation on the academic performance of non-targeted students. Identification rests on the use of pre-law crosswise variation in specially admitted student representation to instrument for exogenous changes in the student body composition afterward. Increased enrollment of targeted students due to the affirmative action caused an increase in the variance of academic ability within university programs. However, I find no evidence that quota-students affect the dropout of non-quota students.
    Keywords: Education, Affirmative Action, College Admission
    JEL: I23 I28 J15
    Date: 2018–02–28
  45. By: C. Dannemann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Erkan Goeren (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper hypothesizes and empirically establishes the educational burden of the ADHD-related behavioral symptoms inattention and/or hyperactivity-impulsivity on aggregate cognitive achievement outcomes. We use a novel compilation of the 2- and 7-repeat allele variants of the human DRD4 exon III gene that candidate gene association studies have identified as an important biomarker in the etiology of childhood ADHD. The main results show a negative and statistically significant association between aggregate international student achievement test scores and the DRD4 exon III 2- and 7-repeat allele frequency measure in a cross-section of 81 countries. This finding is robust to the inclusion of additional country-specific historical, cultural, socioeconomic, biogeographic, health-related, educational, genetic, and diversity factors. Additional estimates suggest the predictive power of the country-level DRD4 exon III 2- and 7-repeat allele frequency measure on cross-country differences of estimated ADHD prevalence rates, confirming the reliability of the proposed biomarker for the measurement of ADHD-related behavioral symptoms in the general population.
    Keywords: Human Capital, Cognitive Ability, Cognitive Skills, International Student Achievement Tests, Education Production Function, ADHD, DRD4 Exon III, Genetic Diversity
    Date: 2018–04
  46. By: Hulya Eraslan (Rice University, Department of Economics); Xun Tang (Rice University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We study the identification and estimation of large network games where each individual holds private information about its links and payoffs. Extending Galeotti, Goyal, Jackson, Vega-Redondo and Yariv (2010), we build a tractable empirical model of network games where the individuals are heterogeneous with private link and payoff information, and characterize its unique, symmetric pure-strategy Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We then show that the parameters in individual payoffs are identified under "large market" asymptotics, whereby the number of individuals increases to infinity in a fixed and small number of networks. We also propose a consistent two-step m-estimator for individual payoffs. Our method is distribution-free in that it does not require parametrization of the distribution of shocks in individual payoffs. Monte Carlo simulation show that our estimator has good performance in moderate-sized samples.
    Date: 2018–03
  47. By: KONDO Keisuke
    Abstract: The present study deals with variations in markups between and within cities in the Japanese manufacturing sector using the markups estimated at the establishment level. Recent models on monopolistic competition with endogenous price-cost markups show that markups in larger cities are lower since competition is tougher in larger cities. With respect to the within-city variation in markup, firms producing differentiated products at lower costs charge higher markups. This empirical study supports these theoretical predictions. The findings suggest that markups are partly balanced between establishment and regional factors when highly productive, large establishments are located in large cities. Furthermore, this study finds that exporting establishments face global competition in export markets, similar to large domestic markets. Therefore, highly productive, large establishments can export their products by charging high markups.
    Date: 2018–03
  48. By: Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
    Abstract: The topic of this presentation was the Working Cities Challenge.
    Keywords: working cities; community development; postindustrial revitalization; economic development; cross-sector collaboration
    Date: 2018–04–10
  49. By: Marcelo Arbex; Dennis O'Dea; David Wiczer
    Abstract: We introduce an irregular network structure into a model of frictional, on-the-job search in which workers find jobs through their network connections or directly from firms. We show that jobs found through network search have wages that stochastically dominate those found through direct contact. In irregular networks, heterogeneity in the worker’s position within the network leads to heterogeneity in wage and employment dynamics: better-connected workers climb the job ladder faster. Despite this rich heterogeneity from the network structure, the mean-field approach allows the problem of our workers to be formulated tractably and recursively. We then calibrate a quantitative version of our mechanism, showing it is consistent with several empirical findings regarding networks and labor markets: jobs found through networks have higher wages and last longer. Finally, we present new evidence consistent with our model that job-to-job switches at higher rungs of the ladder are more likely to use networks.
    Date: 2018
  50. By: Wucherpfennig, Julian; Kachi, Aya (University of Basel); Bormann, Nils-Christian; Hunziker, Philipp
    Abstract: Binary outcome models are frequently used in Political Science. However, such models have proven particularly dicult in dealing with interdependent data structures, including spatial autocorrelation, temporal autocorrelation, as well as simultaneity arising from endogenous binary regressors. In each of these cases, the primary source of the estimation challenge is the fact that jointly determined error terms in the reduced-form specication are analytically intractable due to a high-dimensional integral. To deal with this problem, simulation approaches have been proposed, but these are computationally intensive and impractical for datasets with thousands of observations. As a way forward, in this paper we demonstrate how to reduce the computational burder signicantly by (i) introducing analytically tractable pseudo maximum likelihoodestimators for latent binary choice models that exhibit interdependence across space, time and/or outcomes, and by (ii) proposing an implementation strategy that increases computational eciency considerably. Monte-Carlo experiments demonstrate that our estimators perform similarly to existing alternatives in terms of error, but require only a fraction of the computational cost.
    JEL: C10 C33
    Date: 2018–03–30
  51. By: Ingrid Nappi-Choulet; Julie Le Gallo; Marie-Laure Breuille; Kassoum Ayouba; Camille Grivault
    Abstract: In France, while more than 20% of dwellings belong to the private rental sector, the understanding of this market is still imperfect and is mostly limited to specific areas (e.g. Paris). The creation of the Observatoires Locaux des Loyers (OLL) network from 2013 intend to address this problem by providing to researchers high-quality detailed microdata of dwellings structural characteristics for several areas in France (Lille, Marseille, Toulouse, etc.).In collaboration with the Ministère du Logement et de l'Habitat Durable (French housing ministry) and the Observatoire des Loyers de l'Agglomération Parisienne (OLAP) which manages the OLL’s, we are the first to capitalize on the OLL’s and OLAP work, i.e. to use their databases from 2014 to 2015 to improve the understanding of the private rental sector of all areas where there is an OLL. Specifically, we present in this paper an extensive analysis of the factors that determine the rent levels in that sector in France, based on microdata of dwellings structural characteristics provided by 14 OLL and the OLAP.For this purpose, we use a hedonic regression model in which dwelling rent is characterized by a bundle of several characteristics. In addition to the dwellings’ physical characteristics (type of dwellings, number of rooms, total surface etc.), we use a set of variables that includes neighborhood characteristics (median income, accessibility, etc.) and a set of variables that relates to environmental quality (air pollution and proportion of green areas or forests). Since it is widely known that dwelling rents tend to be heteroskedastic and spatially autocorrelated, and that in the presence of such a phenomenon, the ordinary-least square estimator of the parameter of the hedonic model is inefficient, we use the nonparametric heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent OLS estimator (OLS-SHAC). This estimator is robust against possible misspecification of the disturbances and allow for unknown forms of heteroscedasticity and spatial auto-correlation between dwelling rents.In addition to the exploration of the determinants of dwelling rents, we propose a typology of the French private rental sector: using principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering, we find clusters of areas for which rent levels are explained by similar attributes (in term of magnitude). Our typology may be used to design areas-based policies rather than one for the entire French market.
    Keywords: France; Hedonic Model; Housing; Rental market; STAR method
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  52. By: Cerqua, Augusto; Pellegrini, Guido
    Abstract: We measure the effects of a substantial place-based policy shock on the local labor market systems exploiting as an instrumental variable the peculiar information necessary to apply for capital subsidies in Italy during the period 1996-2006. The results show the presence of positive multipliers in the South of Italy, slightly lower than what was previously found for the US but much higher than those identified for European and Asian countries. The reasons for this finding lie in the greater accuracy of the data, in the relevance of the instrument used, and in the widespread underutilization of production factors.
    Keywords: Local multiplier, place-based policy, local labor market.
    JEL: F16 H25 J23 R23
    Date: 2018
  53. By: Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona (UB). Tel. +34-934021825; Fax. +34-934021821. Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain); Enric Monte (Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Polytechnic University of Catalunya (UPC)); Salvador Torra (Riskcenter-IREA, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Barcelona (UB))
    Abstract: In this work we assess the role of data characteristics in the accuracy of machine learning (ML) tourism forecasts from a spatial perspective. First, we apply a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on non-parametric regression to isolate the different components of the time series of international tourism demand to all Spanish regions. This approach allows us to compute a set of measures to describe the features of the data. Second, we analyse the performance of several ML models in a recursive multiple-step-ahead forecasting experiment. In a third step, we rank all seventeen regions according to their characteristics and the obtained forecasting performance, and use the rankings as the input for a multivariate analysis to evaluate the interactions between time series features and the accuracy of the predictions. By means of dimensionality reduction techniques we summarise all the information into two components and project all Spanish regions into perceptual maps. We find that entropy and dispersion show a negative relation with accuracy, while the effect of other data characteristics on forecast accuracy is heavily dependent on the forecast horizon.
    Keywords: STL decomposition, non-parametric regression, time series features, forecast accuracy, machine learning, tourism demand, regional analysis. JEL classification:C45, C51, C53, C63, E27, L83.
    Date: 2018–03
  54. By: Debora Di Gioacchino; Laura Sabani; Simone Tedeschi
    Abstract: This paper analyses the factors affecting preferences for public education spending, focusing on household income and other individuals’ characteristics as well as on institutional features. Standard redistributive arguments à la Meltzer and Richard (1981) suggest that the impact of household income on preferences should be negative since richer families are likely to oppose the redistributive effect of public funding. However, the empirical evidence does not seem to confirm this prediction. To shed some light on this issue, our proposed interpretative key hinges on the hierarchical structure of the education system. To this purpose, we set up a model in which agents are heterogeneous in terms of income and education and human capital is produced in a two-tier education system. We show that individual preferences for public education spending are affected by household income and by variables related to the socioeconomic context, such as income inequality and social inclusiveness of the education system, which determine the ultimate redistributive effect of public spending. We are able to test some of the predictions of our model using individuals’ data from ISSP (2006 wave). The econometric analysis points out that household income is, unambiguously, a negative predictor of preferences when considering openly redistributive education expenses. Differently, when considering general schooling expenses, the intensity and even the direction of the income effect is affected by income inequality and by the social inclusiveness of the education system. We also assess the presence of significant residual variability in the income coefficient, due to unobserved factors, which for the most part is due to the individual within-country rather than to the cross-country level.
    Keywords: Education, basic, tertiary, preferences
    JEL: D1 D78 H52 I28
    Date: 2018
  55. By: Daniela Del Boca (University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Chiara Monfardini (University of Bologna); Sarah Grace See (University of York)
    Abstract: Using data from OECD’s PISA, Eurostat and World Bank’s WDI, we explore how child cognitive outcomes at the aggregate country level are related to macroeconomic conditions, specifically government education expenditures and early education experience. We find that both government expenditures in education and attendance to early child care are associated with better later school performance. We also consider different childcare characteristics such as duration and quality, which appear to have significant effects Our results may imply that policies encouraging childcare expansion should also take into account quality issues.
    Keywords: early childcare and education, school performance, test scores, early childhood education
    JEL: H52 J24
    Date: 2018–04

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