nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒04‒09
fifty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Spatial Analysis of Clustering of Foreclosures in the Poorest-Quality Housing Urban Areas: Evidence from Catalan Cities By Gutiérrez Palomero, Aaron; Arauzo Carod, Josep Maria
  2. Economic Diversity and Regional Economic Performance: A Methodological Concern from Model Uncertainty By Jing Chen
  3. Shrinking Networks: A Spatial Analysis of Bank Branch Closures By Tranfaglia, Anna
  4. Do Software and Videogames firms share location patterns across cities? Evidence from Barcelona, Lyon and Hamburg By Méndez Ortega, Carles,; Arauzo Carod, Josep Maria
  5. Madrasah for Girls and Private School for Boys? The Determinants of School Type Choice in Rural and Urban Indonesia By Asadullah, Niaz; Maliki,
  6. House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults By Paul E. Carrillo; William M. Doerner; William D. Larson
  7. Monetary Policy, Heterogeneity, and the Housing Channel By Serdar Ozkan; Kurt Mitman; Fatih Karahan; Aaron Hedlund
  8. Distributional effects of fares and frequencies for public transport in small cities By Asplund, Disa; Pydokke, Roger
  9. Individual Social Capital and Migration By Hotchkiss, Julie L.; Rupasingha, Anil
  10. China’s Mobility Barriers and Employment Allocations By L Rachel Ngai; Christopher A Pissarides; Jin Wang
  11. Taxing Vacant Dwellings: Can fiscal policy reduce vacancy? By Segú, Mariona; Vignolles, Benjamin
  12. Do small cities need more public transport subsidies than big cities? By Börjesson, Maria; Fung, Chau Man; Proost, Stef; Yan, Zifei
  13. The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions By Fischer, Manfred M.; Huber, Florian; Pfarrhofer, Michael; Staufer-Steinnocher, Petra
  14. Resolving a Non-Performing Loan crisis: the ongoing case of the Irish mortgage market By McCann, Fergal
  15. A Take of Two Americas: the Evolution of Innovation Networks across US Cities By Hyunju Lee; Alessandra Fogli
  16. Creativity and entrepreneurship: Empirical evidence for Catalonia By Coll Martínez, Eva
  17. First-Time Homebuyer Counseling and the Mortgage Selection Experience in the United States: Evidence from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations By Robert Argento; Lariece Brown; Sergei Koulayev; Grace Li; Marina Myhre; Forrest W. Pafenberg; Saty Patrabansh
  18. Agglomeration and Industry Spillover Effects in the Aftermath of a Credit Shock By José Jorge; Joana Rocha
  19. Mixed Duopoly in Education with Vouchers By Tomori, Françeska
  20. The Regional Effects of a National Minimum Wage By Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Duncan Roth; Tobias Seidel
  21. Do School Principals Respond to Increased Public Scrutiny? New Survey Evidence from Australia By Coelli, Michael; Foster, Gigi; Leigh, Andrew
  22. Deprivation, Segregation, and Socioeconomic Class of UK Immigrants: Does English Proficiency Matter? By Aoki, Yu; Santiago, Lualhati
  23. The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30 years By Susilo, Yusak; Liu, Chengxi; Börjesson, Maria
  24. The Effect of Attitudes toward Migrants on Migrant Skill Composition By Besart Avdiu
  25. A Note on Manipulability in School Choice with Reciprocal Preferences By Claus-Jochen Haake; Nadja Stroh-Maraun
  26. Satisfaction with crowding in public transport By Rubensson, Isak; Börjesson, Maria
  27. Assessing the Variance in Pupil Attainment: How Important Is the School Attended? By Wilkinson, David; Bryson, Alex; Stokes, Lucy
  28. The Granular Origins of Aggregate House Price Volatility By Hull, Isaiah; Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
  29. Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy By William Gatt
  30. Costs and Benets of Seasonal Migration : Evidence from India By Imbert, Clément; Papp, John
  31. Educational assistance and education quality in Indonesia: The role of decentralization By Virgi Sari
  32. Immigrants and Entrepreneurship: a Road for Talent or Just the Only Road? By Iranzo Sancho, Susana
  33. Autonomous systems: A bibliometric and patent analysis By Youtie, Jan; Porter, Alan L.; Shapira, Philip; Woo, Seokkyun; Huang, Yayun
  34. Austrian Outbound Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: A spatial econometric study By Fischer, Manfred M.; Pintar, Nico; Sargant, Benedikt
  35. The Bedroom Tax By Stephen Gibbons; Olmo Silva; Maria Sánchez-Vidal
  36. The Impact of Repossession Risk on Mortgage Default By O'Malley, Terry
  37. An Analysis of Peer Effects on Vaccination Behavior Using a Model of Privately Provided Public Goods By Yoko Ibuka; Jun-ichi Itaya; Naomi Miyazato
  38. Creative industries and firm creation: disentangling causal effects through historical cultural associations By Coll Martínez, Eva
  39. Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics By François Geerolf; Thomas Grjebine
  40. Effectiveness of Differentiated Instruction Training to Enhance Teachers' Sense of Efficacy in Inclusive Schools By Mira Aliza Rachmawati
  41. Preventing buildings from falling down: Challenges for earthquake-strengthening policy in small-town New Zealand By Filippova, Olga; Noy, Ilan
  42. Mortgage Experiences of Rural Borrowers in the United States: Insights from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations By Tim Critchfield; Jaya Dey; Nuno Mota; Saty Patrabansh
  43. The Impact of Self-Selection on Performance By Kießling, Lukas; Radbruch, Jonas; Schaube, Sebastian
  44. The Economic Determinants of Crime: an Approach through Responsiveness Scores By Giovanni Cerulli; Maria Ventura; Christopher F Baum
  45. Spatial GARCH Models By Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
  46. Government education expenditures, pre-primary education and school performance: A cross-country analysis By Del Boca, Daniela; Monfardini, Chiara; See, Sarah
  47. Strategic Responses to International Tax Competition: Fiscal (De) Centralization versus Partial Tax Harmonization By Sanz Córdoba, Patricia; Theilen, Bernd, 1965-
  48. The effect of Extracurricular Activities on Students’ Dropout. Evidence from Vocational Education in Italy By Rossella Iraci Capuccinello; Giuseppe Migali
  49. The Non-Monotonic Political Effects of Resource Booms By Stanislao Maldonado
  50. Dismantling the "Jungle": Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France By Paul Vertier; Max Viskanic
  51. The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector By François Cohen; Matthieu Glachant; Magnus Söderberg
  52. Regional economic development in Europe, 1900-2010: a description of the patterns By Roses, Joan R.; Wolf, Nikolaus
  53. Genetic Diversity and Economic Development : Assessing the Key Findings in Ashraf and Galor (2013) By Raymond Caraher; Michael Ash
  54. Public education expenditure, institution development, and regional innovations: An empirical evidence from China By Li, Chenhui; Lian, Xubei; Zhang, Zhi
  55. Pricing Credit Default Swap Subject to Counterparty Risk and Collateralization By Alan White
  56. Concentration in US Labor Markets: Evidence From Online Vacancy Data By José A. Azar; Ioana Marinescu; Marshall I. Steinbaum; Bledi Taska

  1. By: Gutiérrez Palomero, Aaron; Arauzo Carod, Josep Maria
    Abstract: This paper uses data on housing stock owned by financial entities as a result of foreclosures to analyze (1) the spatial logic of Spain’s mortgage crisis in urban areas, and (2) the characteristics of the types of housing most affected by this phenomenon. Nearest-Neighbor Index and Ripley’s K function analyses were applied in two Catalan cities (Tarragona and Terrassa). The results obtained show that foreclosures tend to be concentrated in the most deprived neighborhoods. The general pattern of clustering also tends to be most intense for smaller and cheaper housing. Our findings show that home foreclosures have been concentrated in only a few neighborhoods and precisely in those containing the poorest-quality housing stock. They also provide new evidence of the characteristics and spatial patterns of the housing stock accumulated by banks in Catalonia as a result of the recent wave of evictions associated with foreclosures. Keywords: foreclosures; evictions; clustering; Nearest-Neighbor Index; Moran’s I; Ripley’s K; Catalonia
    Keywords: Execució hipotecària, Desnonament, Béns immobles, Bancs, Catalunya, 332 - Economia regional i territorial. Economia del sòl i de la vivenda,
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Jing Chen (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: Although the role of spatial dependence has been considered in studying the relationship between economic diversity and regional economic performance, the existing literature seldom mentions model uncertainty, which mainly arises from at least two sources. One source of model uncertainty is the choice of an appropriate spatial weight matrix that describes the spatial interactions between two regions, which can be specified in a variety of ways. The second source of model uncertainty is choosing a set of control variables to model the diversity-performance relationship. To overcome these limitations, a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method is used to address model uncertainty when studying the effects of economic diversity on short-term employment growth and long-term economic stability among 359 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the contiguous U.S. The potential spatial spillovers are also considered through spatial regression models. This empirical analysis suggests that ignoring model uncertainty can impact the estimates and our understanding of economic diversity, and it also confirms that economic diversity of neighbors plays an important role in regional economic development.
    Keywords: Specialization, Diversity, Economic Structure, Regional Economic Development, Model Uncertainty
    JEL: R11 R12 C10
    Date: 2018–03–29
  3. By: Tranfaglia, Anna (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: As more consumers take advantage of online banking services, branch networks are declining across the country. Limited attention has been given to identifying any possible spatial patterns of branch closures and, more importantly, the community demographics where branches close their doors. This analysis uses an innovative spatial statistics concept to study financial services: Using data from 2010 to 2016, a random labelling test is conducted to understand branch closure clustering in the Philadelphia, Chicago, and Baltimore metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Additionally, spatial autocorrelation is tested, and an MSA-level spatial regression analysis is done to see if there is a pattern to branch closures in metropolitan areas. I find evidence of branch closure clusters in the Chicago and Philadelphia MSAs; however, this spatial pattern is only observable within the suburbs, not the primary city itself. Using a random labelling test is a methodological innovation in regional economic studies and propels our understanding of banking deserts and underserved neighborhoods.
    Keywords: branch closures; GIS; spatial autocorrelation; marked point process; random labelling test; Philadelphia; Chicago; Baltimore
    JEL: C21 G21 R12
    Date: 2018–03–20
  4. By: Méndez Ortega, Carles,; Arauzo Carod, Josep Maria
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse common location patterns of Software and Videogames (SVE) industry in Barcelona, Lyon and Hamburg. This is a key industry in developed countries that mainly located at core of bigger metropolitan areas, looking for agglomeration economies, skilled labour and a wide range of spillover effects existent there. Cities used in our empirical application share some common features in terms of size, manufacturing tradition and, specially, economic strategies, as they have managed to promote high-tech neighbourhoods through ambitious urban renewal policies. When analysing location patterns of firms from these industries, although our results highlight predominant role of urban cores of three cities, also indicate important specificities in terms of core-periphery. distribution of SVE’s firms. JEL Codes: R12, C60, L86, N90. Keywords: Software Industry, microgeographic analysis, spatial location patterns, Barcelona, Hamburg, Lyon
    Keywords: Localització industrial, Indústria informàtica, Videojocs -- Indústria i comerç, 332 - Economia regional i territorial. Economia del sòl i de la vivenda,
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Asadullah, Niaz (University of Malaya); Maliki, (Indonesia National Planning and Development Agency (Bappenas))
    Abstract: Using a nationally representative data set of Indonesian households and villages, we study the determinants of enrolment in Islamic schools (i.e., madrasahs) and private non-religious vis-Ã -vis public non-religious schools. Multinomial logit estimates indicate that madrasahs systematically attract children from poorer households, rural locations, and less educated parents while the opposite is true for private school enrolment. Moreover, girls are significantly more likely to be in madrasahs, irrespective of their locations, while boys enjoy a higher probability of enrolment in non-madrasah schools, particularly in urban areas. A significant effect of household income remains even after factoring out the influence of child characteristics, parental background, and village characteristics. Therefore policies that reduce household poverty are likely to reduce demand for Islamic schooling. However, the presence of a "girl effect" in madrasah enrolment independent of household income and location factors is puzzling and underscores the need to better understand the socio-cultural determinants of school choice in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Indonesia, madrasah education, poverty, gender, private school
    JEL: D04 I21 O15
    Date: 2018–02
  6. By: Paul E. Carrillo; William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William D. Larson (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
    Abstract: The transaction price of identical housing units can vary widely due to heterogeneity in buyer and seller preferences, appraisers, and search costs, generating "markups" above or below the average market price. These markups are mean reverting upon subsequent transactions, suggesting transitory factors play a role in same-unit dynamics. We show markups are an important driver of mortgage delinquencies, defaults, prepayments, and credit losses conditional on default. In general, our findings highlight several important aspects of mortgage risk management, including underwriting, insurance, and unit-level house value dynamics.
    Keywords: collateral risk, automated valuation model, Great Recession
    JEL: C43 R14 R30
    Date: 2018–04
  7. By: Serdar Ozkan (University of Toronto); Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University); Fatih Karahan (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri)
    Abstract: We investigate the role of housing and mortgage debt in the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. First, monetary policy induced-movements in house prices translate into consumption changes because of wealth effects. Second, a contractionary monetary shock raises the cost of borrowing which reduces the demand and as a result the liquidity of the housing market, further depressing house prices and further increases the cost of borrowing. Furthermore, nominal long-term mortgage debt implies that changes in monetary policy result in redistribution between lenders and borrowers and generate cash-flow effects that are larger for borrowing constrained households. We build a heterogenous agent New Keynesian model with a frictional housing market to quantify the various mechanisms. The model is able to match the rich empirical heterogeneity in home ownership, leverage and MPC across households. In particular, our model is consistent with the significant difference in MPC between low- and high-LTV households that we document in the data. Our quantitative findings are as follows: First, we find that about 20% of the drop in aggregate consumption against a contractionary monetary shock is due to declining house prices. Second, we find asymmetric responses of the economy to shocks, with contractionary shocks yielding a larger response of all variables. Finally, we investigate how the transmission of monetary policy depends on the distribution of mortgage debt and find that monetary policy is more effective in stimulating the economy in an high-LTV environment.
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Asplund, Disa (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Pydokke, Roger (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impacts of different social welfare weights on fares and frequencies, optimized to maximize welfare for bus services in the small Swedish city of Uppsala, handling both congestion in streets and crowding in public transport. It represents choice between three modes; public transport, car and a combination of walking and cycling, two periods; peak and off-peak, two zones and three origin-destination combinations. Six scenarios are evaluated; the base year (2014), a welfare optimal combination without distributional concerns and welfare optimal policies for four different sets of welfare weights with various degrees of progressivity. The main results are that, compared to the welfare optimal scenario without distributional weights, increasing the welfare weights of the low-income group increases frequencies and reduces fares successively. Comparing the simulation results to the fares and frequencies in Uppsala in 2014, optimal frequencies with even the most far reaching distributional objectives are lower.
    Keywords: Income distribution; Distributional weights; Optimization; Public transport; Welfare; Fares; Frequencies
    JEL: R10 R41 R48
    Date: 2018–03–23
  9. By: Hotchkiss, Julie L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Rupasingha, Anil (U.S. Department of Agriculture)
    Abstract: This paper determines how individual, relative to community, social capital affects individual migration decisions. We make use of nonpublic data from the Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey to predict multidimensional social capital for observations in the Current Population Survey. We find evidence that individuals are much less likely to have moved to a community with average social capital levels lower than their own and that higher levels of community social capital act as positive pull-factor amenities. The importance of that amenity differs across urban/rural locations. We also confirm that higher individual social capital is a negative predictor of migration.
    Keywords: social capital; migration; Current Population Survey; amenities; nonpublic data; factor analysis
    JEL: C36 C38 D71 R23
    Date: 2018–03–01
  10. By: L Rachel Ngai (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); London School of Economics (LSE)); Christopher A Pissarides (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); London School of Economics (LSE); Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jin Wang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: China's hukou system imposes two main barriers to population movements. Agricultural workers get land to cultivate but are unable to trade it in a frictionless market. Social transfers (education, health, etc.) are conditional on holding a local hukou. We show that the land policy leads to over-employment in agriculture and it is the more important barrier to industrialization. Effective land tenure guarantees and a perfect competitive rental market would correct this inefficiency. The local restrictions on social transfers favour rural enterprises over urban employment with a relatively smaller impact on industrialization.
    Keywords: Chinese immigration, Chinese land policy, Imperfect rent, Hukou registration, Social transfers
    JEL: J61 O18 R23
    Date: 2018–03
  11. By: Segú, Mariona; Vignolles, Benjamin
    Abstract: We provide the first evaluation of a tax on vacant housing. This instrument has been used increasingly by governments in order to reduce vacancy in large and dense cities with tight housing markets. We use the quasi-experimental setting of the implementation of a tax on vacancy in France in 1999 to identify the causal direct effect of the tax on the vacancy rate. Exploiting an exhaustive fiscal data-set, which contains information on every dwelling in France from 1995 to 2013, we implement a Difference-in-Difference approach combined with a Propensity Score Matching strategy. Our results suggest that the tax was responsible of a 13% decrease in vacancy rates between 1997 and 2001. This impact is twice as high for municipalities with an initially high level of vacancy. Our results also suggest that most of the vacant dwellings moved to primary residences.
    Keywords: Keywords: Housing, Vacancy Rate, Taxes, Impact Evaluation
    JEL: R28 R31 R38
    Date: 2018–03–26
  12. By: Börjesson, Maria (VTI); Fung, Chau Man (KU Leuven); Proost, Stef (KU Leuven); Yan, Zifei (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))
    Abstract: This paper compares the optimal public transport subsidies for a representative bus corridor in a small city (Karlstad) and in a big city (Stockholm) in Sweden. In the smaller city, the optimization of the fare is more important for welfare, whereas in the larger city, the frequency is more important. Moreover, the optimal subsidy is higher in small than in large cities because of larger positive externalities of reduced waiting and schedule delay costs, whereas the negative crowding externalities are larger in the large city. The bus subsidy is important for the income distribution in the small city.
    Keywords: Cost-Benefit Analysis; Transport plan; Public transport; Subsidies; External costs; Fares; Frequencies; Bus stops; Redistribution
    JEL: R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2018–03–23
  13. By: Fischer, Manfred M.; Huber, Florian; Pfarrhofer, Michael; Staufer-Steinnocher, Petra
    Abstract: In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Bayesian model estimation is based on Gibbs sampling with Normal-Gamma shrinkage priors for the autoregressive coefficients and factor loadings, while monetary policy shocks are identified using high-frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments. The empirical results indicate that monetary policy actions typically have sizeable and significant positive effects on regional housing prices, revealing differences in magnitude and duration. The largest effects are observed in regions located in states on both the East and West Coasts, notably California, Arizona and Florida.
    Keywords: Regional housing prices, metropolitan regions, Bayesian estimation, high-frequency identification
    Date: 2018
  14. By: McCann, Fergal
    Abstract: The Irish banking system has in recent years experienced a large build-up in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) during the crisis followed by a sharp reduction in the 2013-2017 period. In this article I present a recent history of the ongoing resolution of the mortgage arrears crisis in Ireland. Using a large and close to exhaustive panel data set of Irish mortgages from 2008 to 2016, I present a number of new findings on loan transitions between delinquency states, the importance of legacy effects of the crisis in explaining recent entry to arrears, the role of mortgage modification in the reduction in arrears balances, the extent of borrower-lender engagement and the financial vulnerability that remains in pockets of the Irish mortgage market. JEL Classification: G01, G21
    Keywords: borrower engagement, loan transitions, mortgage modification, mortgages, Non-Performing Loans
    Date: 2018–03
  15. By: Hyunju Lee (University of Minnesota); Alessandra Fogli (Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank)
    Abstract: We analyze the geographic dimension of innovation. Innovation is the critical component of long term prosperity and it is unevenly distributed across US. Using data on 1.8 million US patents and their citation properties, we map the innovation network of all major US cities over the last three decades. We find that the innovation gap among cities, which was shrinking until 1980, has recently started growing, generating divergence. We develop a network model of cities that captures the knowledge spillovers within and across industries as well as within and across cities, and calibrate it using information on the patterns of patents citations. We show that the IT revolution, by reducing the cost of information exchange across cities, induced an endogenous response of the network structure of cities. This change in network structure can explain a large part of the recent divergence in innovation patterns across cities, and is consistent with a number of stylized facts about the evolution of US cities over the past thirty years.
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Coll Martínez, Eva
    Abstract: In recent years creativity has gained importance because of its potential to generate economic growth based on their role in the innovation processes and economic development. In this regard, this work is twofold. First, it addresses the mechanisms through which creativity promotes knowledge externalities and innovation contributing to regional economic growth and competitiveness. And second, it aims to analyse the role of creativity, diversity and innovation on entrepreneurship at a municipality level for Catalonia. To conduct this analysis, information provided by the Register of Industrial Establishments of Catalonia (REIC) – a register that includes the creation of new establishments located in Catalonia between 2002 and 2007 – , and by the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT) are used. Main results highlight the role of creativity in the spreading of ideas and the creation of new projects encouraging entrepreneurship at local level. However, the role of cultural diversity does not seem to be so relevant in deciding the location of new firms in Catalan municipalities. Finally, intellectual and technological productivity in the municipality (in terms of patents) favours the creation of new firms but only in municipalities closer to technologic and scientific centres. Keywords: creativity, diversity, innovation, entrepreneurship, industrial location JEL codes: O31, M14, O32, L26, O14
    Keywords: Innovacions tecnològiques -- Catalunya, Emprenedoria -- Catalunya, Localització industrial -- Catalunya, Creativitat en els negocis -- Catalunya, 332 - Economia regional i territorial. Economia del sòl i de la vivenda,
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Robert Argento (Freddie Mac); Lariece Brown (Freddie Mac); Sergei Koulayev (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Grace Li (Fannie Mae); Marina Myhre (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development); Forrest W. Pafenberg (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Saty Patrabansh (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
    Abstract: The existing literature on homebuyer education and counseling (HEC) consists almost exclusively of evaluations of specific programs, generally using mortgage loan performance as the metric of success. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it provides evidence on the benefits of HEC to mortgage borrowers in aspects other than mortgage performance. Second, the paper evaluates HEC in general, not just one specific program. It does so by drawing from a nationally representative sample of all first-time homebuyers in the United States who took out a mortgage in 2013 and 2014. The study data comes from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations (NSMO), a new survey co-sponsored by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). We find that 14 percent of a nationally representative sample of first-time homebuyers reported receiving some form of HEC. Using two different matching estimation techniques (propensity score and coarsened exact matching) and ordinary least squares, we find that first-time homebuyers who reported receiving HEC also reported better mortgage knowledge, higher incidence of comparing final costs to the Good Faith Estimate (GFE), higher incidence of selecting a mortgage based on cost, and higher level of satisfaction with mortgage terms and the mortgage process.
    Date: 2018–03
  18. By: José Jorge (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto, cef.up); Joana Rocha (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence showing that industries with intense strategic complementarities exhibit stronger sensitivity to economic shocks. The Portuguese credit crunch of 2009 represents a negative shock for nonfinancial firms, which has created negative spillover effects among firms. Corporate investment declines significantly in industries with strong strategic complementarities following the onset of the crisis, controlling for firm fixed effects, time varying measures of financial constraints and investment opportunities. Consistent with a causal effect, the decline is greatest for firms in industries with strong strategic complementarities. To address sample selection concerns we consider several sample splits and apply a matching approach to find the best counterfactual, and confirm similar results.
    Keywords: Banking, Financial Crises, Industry Spillovers, Production Externalities, Agglomeration
    JEL: G21 D22 G01 D62 C23
    Date: 2018–02
  19. By: Tomori, Françeska
    Abstract: In a mixed duopoly environment, I study under which conditions the introduction of a voucher system for private schools can increase competition and as a result, social welfare. My model considers a market in which schools compete in qualities to attract students. Speci cally, I consider two settings: one with two private pro t-maximizing schools and one with a mixed duopoly, in which one of the schools maximizes social welfare. In the two situations, the quality level offered by the schools plays a crucial role in the students' enrollment decision. I nd that in both private and mixed duopoly, the voucher reduces the tuition fee and the quality of the high quality school. It also increases own pro ts and decreases the ones of its competitor. Thus, the voucher reduces the incentives of the high-quality school to invest on its quality, and this weakens the competition in the market. In the mixed duopoly scenario, particularly for having an increasing consumer surplus and social welfare, the social planner needs to implement a low voucher. The contrary needs to be implemented in the private duopoly. Finally, the low voucher policy can be successful as a high voucher is costly. Keywords: Mixed Duopoly, Voucher Programs, Educational System, Vertical and Horizontal Differentiation. JEL classi fications: D21, H52, I2, L13.
    Keywords: Despeses públiques, Política educativa, 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus, 37 - Educació. Ensenyament. Formació. Temps lliure,
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Duncan Roth; Tobias Seidel
    Abstract: We estimate the spatially differential effects of a nationally uniform minimum wage that was introduced in Germany in 2015. To this end, we use a micro data set covering the universe of employed and unemployed individuals in Germany from 2011 to 2016 and a difference†in†differences based identification strategy that controls for heterogeneity in pre†treatment outcome trends. We find that the policy led to spatial wage convergence, in particular in the left tail of the distribution, without reducing relative employment in low†wage regions within the first two years.
    Keywords: difference-in-differences, employment, Germany, minimum wage, wage inequality
    JEL: J31 J58 R12
    Date: 2018
  21. By: Coelli, Michael (University of Melbourne); Foster, Gigi (University of New South Wales); Leigh, Andrew (Australian National University)
    Abstract: We explore responses of Australian school principals to the introduction of test score reporting via the My School website in 2010. Our analysis is motivated by the implicit assumption that heightened public scrutiny should motivate principals to align schools' policies and practices with what is believed to generate better test results. We use responses from both public and private schools to a custom-built questionnaire administered to principals before (2009) and after (2012) the My School website launch. We find scarce evidence of meaningful adjustments over time, but we do find evidence of significantly different policies and practices across school groups.
    Keywords: school accountability, standardized test scores, educational performance, school competition
    JEL: D83 I21 I28
    Date: 2018–02
  22. By: Aoki, Yu (University of Aberdeen); Santiago, Lualhati (Office for National Statistics, UK)
    Abstract: This paper studies the causal effect of English proficiency on residential location outcomes and the socioeconomic class of immigrants in England and Wales, exploiting a natural experiment. Based on the phenomenon that young children learn a new language more easily than older children, we construct an instrument for English proficiency using age at arrival in the United Kingdom. Taking advantage of a unique dataset, we measure the extent of residential segregation along different dimensions, and find that poor English skills lead immigrants to live in areas with a high concentration of people who speak their same native language, but not necessarily in areas with a high concentration of people of their same ethnicity or country of birth. This finding could suggest that, for immigrants with poor English proficiency, what matters for their residential location decision is language spoken by residents, as opposed to ethnicity or country of birth. We also find that language skills have an impact on the occupation-based socioeconomic class of immigrants: Poor English skills reduce the likelihood of being in the occupation-based class 'higher managerial and professional' and increase that of being in the class 'self-employment'.
    Keywords: language skills, deprivation, residential segregation, socioeconomic class
    JEL: J15 J61 R23 Z13
    Date: 2018–02
  23. By: Susilo, Yusak (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Liu, Chengxi (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Börjesson, Maria (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))
    Abstract: Customer Satisfaction Surveys conducted among public transport passengers over 15 years in Stockholm show that the satisfaction with crowding has been and is low. Surprisingly, however, crowding does not seem to be important for the passengers’ total satisfaction with the public transport service, not even for passengers on the most highly crowded bus services in central Stockholm. A possible reason is that crowding is not perceived as part of the service delivered by the public transport provider. Using less aggregated data than previous studies we also find that the performance of the attributes crowding, reliability and frequency influences satisfaction with these attributes. Moreover, a general result is that when comparing different bus lines and public transport modes, the satisfaction with an attribute is influenced by the performance of this attribute, while the importance level is much more stable across bus lines and public transport modes. There is also a trend increase in the satisfaction with many attributes (but not for crowding), while the importance is more stable over time.
    Keywords: activity-travel patterns; life cycle stages; long term changes; time-use; intra-household interaction
    JEL: R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2018–03–23
  24. By: Besart Avdiu
    Abstract: I investigate the effect of attitudes toward migrants on the average skill composition of immigrants in destination countries. A model is presented showing that negative attitudes toward migrants can reduce the average skill composition. The intuition for the result is that the highly skilled are more mobile and hence more sensitive to negative attitudes. To test the hypothesis, I use survey data on attitudes toward migrants as well as data on migrant stocks by education level and origin country. The empirical analysis is based on two classes of theoretical models and I find consistent evidence for the hypothesis that more positive attitudes increase the skill composition of immigrants. The results imply that general attitudes toward migrants can be relevant for policies seeking to attract highly skilled migrants.
    Keywords: international migration, high-skilled immigration, immigration attitudes
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Claus-Jochen Haake (Paderborn University); Nadja Stroh-Maraun (Paderborn University)
    Abstract: We show that the Boston school choice mechanism (BM), the student proposing deferred acceptance algorithm (DA) and the top trading cycles algorithm (TTC) generate the same outcome when the colleges’ priorities are modified according to students’ preferences in a “first preferences first” manner. This outcome coincides with the BM outcome under original priorities. As a result, the DA and TTC mechanism that are non-manipulable under original priorities become vulnerable to strategic behavior.
    Date: 2018–01
  26. By: Rubensson, Isak (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Börjesson, Maria (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))
    Abstract: Customer Satisfaction Surveys conducted among public transport passengers over 15 years in Stockholm show that the satisfaction with crowding has been and is low. Surprisingly, however, crowding does not seem to be important for the passengers’ total satisfaction with the public transport service, not even for passengers on the most highly crowded bus services in central Stockholm. A possible reason is that crowding is not perceived as part of the service delivered by the public transport provider. Using less aggregated data than previous studies we also find that the performance of the attributes crowding, reliability and frequency influences satisfaction with these attributes. Moreover, a general result is that when comparing different bus lines and public transport modes, the satisfaction with an attribute is influenced by the performance of this attribute, while the importance level is much more stable across bus lines and public transport modes. There is also a trend increase in the satisfaction with many attributes (but not for crowding), while the importance is more stable over time.
    Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Service Quality; Stated Preference; Public Transport; Preferences; Crowding; Reliability
    JEL: R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2018–03–23
  27. By: Wilkinson, David (University College London); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Stokes, Lucy (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR))
    Abstract: We explore the variation in pupil attainment at the end of secondary schooling in England. The paper links data on all schools and all pupils within these schools to analyse the role of the school in accounting for this variation. We analyse a number of different indicators of pupil attainment including value added between the end of primary and secondary schooling and attainment levels at the end of secondary schooling. We examine indicators that were the focus of the school accounting framework as well as others indicators that were not directly part of how schools were assessed. We show that schools account for a minority of the variance in pupil attainment, and the extent of the variation accounted for by the school is sensitive to the measure of pupil attainment used. In addition, we find that the majority of the explained school level variance in attainment is related to school composition. However, most of the variance in pupil attainment remains unexplained, raising questions about what other factors contribute to the variation in school performance.
    Keywords: schools, school performance, pupil attainment
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2018–02
  28. By: Hull, Isaiah (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Olovsson, Conny (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Walentin, Karl (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Westermark, Andreas (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
    Abstract: We measure the extent to which exposure to microeconomic shocks affects house price volatility. Using a novel dataset of all property transactions in Sweden over the 2009-2017 period, we demonstrate that the following are positively associated with house price growth volatility: 1) manufacturing's sectoral share; 2) employment growth volatility; and 3) exposure to firm-specific shocks. Our findings imply that the decline in manufacturing's share of employment since 1970 could account for a 33% reduction in house price volatility in Sweden. We also compute the volatility declines implied by manufacturing share reductions in the U.S., U.K., and Japan.
    Keywords: Idiosyncratic Shocks; Great Moderation; Real Estate
    JEL: E30 O14 R20
    Date: 2017–12–01
  29. By: William Gatt (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: Macroprudential policy is pre-emptive, aimed at preventing crises. Empirical evidence hints at the existence of asymmetric policy in booms and recessions. This paper uses a New Keynesian model with a financial friction on mortgage borrowing and collateral to show what implications this asymmetry might have on the economy. The main source of fluctuations is a bubble in the housing market, which causes house prices and credit to deviate from their fundamental values, leading to a boom and bust cycle. The main macroprudential tool is the regulatory loan to value (LTV) ratio. The author finds that while the asymmetric policy dampens the boom phase, it introduces more volatility in the economy by exacerbating the correction that follows. The higher the asymmetry in the policy response, the more volatile the economy is relative to one in which policy reacts symmetrically.
    JEL: C61 E32 E44 E61 R21
    Date: 2018
  30. By: Imbert, Clément (University of Warwick,DepartmentofEconomics); Papp, John (R.I.C.E)
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on rural-to-urban migration decisions in developing countries. Using original survey data from rural India, we show that employment provision on local public works signicantly reduces seasonal migration. Workers who choose to participate in the program forgo much higher earnings outside of the village. Structural estimates imply that the utility cost of one day away may be as high as 60% of migration earnings. Up to half of this cost can be explained by higher living costs and income risk. The other half likely reects high non-monetary costs from living and working in the city.
    Keywords: Internal Migration ; Workfare Programs ; India ; Urban ; Rural
    JEL: H53 J22 J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2018
  31. By: Virgi Sari
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of educational assistance in Indonesia, following two decades of government decentralization, and its effect on education quality. Using Indonesia Family Life Survey data, we exploit as exogenous rule the variation in the implementation of government decentralization to compute difference-in-difference estimators. Indicative evidence suggests decentralization has facilitated collusion between village authorities and marginalized private schools, with substantial increases in educational assistance and financial resources, especially to religious schools. Despite dominant rent-seeking behaviour and self-interest motives, increased public resource allocation to private schools impacted positively on student achievement. Our results also emphasize the role of social norms in undermining efficient public goods allocation after decentralization.
    Date: 2018
  32. By: Iranzo Sancho, Susana
    Abstract: Casual evidence for some developed countries suggests that most talented migrants become entrepreneurs (positive sorting), but entrepreneurship might also be chosen by less talented migrants who have fewer opportunities in the labour market of the destination countries (negative sorting). Building upon Lucas (1978), we develop a theoretical framework to analyze the different mechanisms at play that draw migrants into entrepreneurship. The model can explain the selection into self-employment of both highskilled and less skilled migrants. We test the model predictions on a rich survey dataset of immigrants in Spain for 2006-2007. Our findings reject a U-shaped relationship between immigrants.skills and self-employment for the Spanish case and instead points to positive sorting into entrepreneurship. Self-employed migrants tend to have (statistically significant) better observable characteristics than salaried workers. However, non-market mechanisms, that is, penalties in the labour market beyond the mere human capital losses than migrants experience upon arrival, are also consistent with the relatively higher probability of self-employment and the lower entrepreneurial quality of certain migrant groups.
    Keywords: Treballadors estrangers -- Espanya, Emprenedoria -- Espanya, 331 - Treball. Relacions laborals. Ocupació. Organització del treball,
    Date: 2017
  33. By: Youtie, Jan; Porter, Alan L.; Shapira, Philip; Woo, Seokkyun; Huang, Yayun
    Abstract: This report examines Germany's research and patent position in four autonomous systems: smart homes, smart factories, autonomous vehicles (non-hostile environments), and autonomous vehicles in hostile environments. Bibliometric analysis of scholarly papers indexed in the Web of Science and patent analysis of documents in Patstat and Derwent Innovation Index (representing patents from more than 40 patent authorities worldwide) are conducted for all records published in the 2002 to 2017 (May) time period. [...]
    Date: 2017
  34. By: Fischer, Manfred M.; Pintar, Nico; Sargant, Benedikt
    Abstract: This paper focuses on Austrian outbound foreign direct investment (FDI, measured by sales of Austrian affiliates abroad) in Europe over the period 2009-2013, using a spatial Durbin panel data model specification with fixed effects, and a spatial weight matrix based on the first-order contiguity relationship of the countries and normalised by its largest eigenvalue. Third-country effects essentially enter the empirical analysis in two major ways: first, by the endogenous spatial lag on FDI (measured by FDI into markets nearby the host country), and, second, by including an exogenous market potential variable that measures the size of markets nearby the FDI host country in terms of gross domestic product. The question whether the empirical result is compatible with horizontal, vertical, export-platform or complex vertical FDI then depends on the sign and significance levels of both the coefficient of the spatial lag on FDI and the direct impact estimate of the market potential variable. The paper yields robust results that provide significant empirical evidence for horizontal FDI as the main driver of Austrian outbound FDI in Europe. This result is strengthened by the indirect impact estimate of the market potential variable indicating that spatial spillovers do not matter. (authors' abstract)
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; panel econometrics; spatial econometrics; spatial Durbin model; fixed effects
    Date: 2016–04–19
  35. By: Stephen Gibbons; Olmo Silva; Maria Sánchez-Vidal
    Abstract: Housing subsidies for low income households are a central pillar of many welfare systems, but an expensive one. This paper investigates the consequences of an unusual policy aimed at reducing the burden of these subsidies by rationing tenants' use of space. Specifically, we study a policy introduced by the UK Government in 2013 which substantially cut housing benefits for tenants deemed to have a 'spare' bedroom - based on specific criteria related to household composition. Our study is the first to evaluate the impacts of the policy on its target group considering a range of outcomes. To do so, we use a difference-in-difference methodology that compares the observed behaviour of the treated households relative to a control group determined from the details of the policy rules. We find that - as expected - the treated group experienced losses to housing benefit and overall income. Although the policy was not successful in encouraging residential moves, it did incentivise people who moved to downsize - suggesting some success in terms of one of the policy goals, namely reducing 'under-occupancy' in the long run. We find no statistically significant effects on households' food consumption, savings or employment outcomes, despite the associated income reductions. Finally, we find some evidence of a reduction in self-reported satisfaction though this effect is not precisely estimated.
    Keywords: social housing, social rents, bedroom tax. Housing benefits
    JEL: H55 H2 R21 R28
    Date: 2018–04
  36. By: O'Malley, Terry (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of removing repossession risk on a borrower’s decision to default on their mortgage. I exploit quasi-experimental variation in home-repossession law generated by a legal ruling in Ireland, which retroactively removed repossession risk on properties mortgaged before a certain date. Using matched data, sampled locally around this cut-off date, and a difference-in-differences research design, I find that the removal of credible repossession risk led to an immediate increase in mortgage default of 0.5 percentage points a quarter. Consistent with economic models of mortgage default, I find that the effect is driven by borrowers with low and negative home equity, but also by those with lower incomes and higher interest rates.
    Date: 2018–02
  37. By: Yoko Ibuka; Jun-ichi Itaya; Naomi Miyazato
    Abstract: Traditional economic models of vaccination behavior simply assume that agents free-ride on the vaccination decisions of others. We provide three different models of private provision of a public good, such as a joint production model and a conjectural variation model, to explain how a positive peer effect regarding vaccination behavior arises. We conduct two empirical studies using Japanese data in these models. The first empirical analysis, using a data set on the vaccination behavior of neighbors residing in the same block of a city, finds the existence of positive peer effects on individuals’ vaccination decisions. The second empirical analysis also confirms that there are peer effects on the vaccination decisions of members of the same household using a dataset from the national survey we conduct.
    Keywords: peer effect, public good, vaccination, free-rider
    JEL: H41 H12
    Date: 2018
  38. By: Coll Martínez, Eva
    Abstract: In the last decade policy makers and scholars have highlighted creative industries’ capacity to stimulate economic dynamism. However, there is still some debate about the potential effect of reverse causality on this relationship, as CIs may also be attracted to successful areas. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to disentangle the role played by the existing spatial concentration of these kinds of activity on new firm creation. In order to deal with this potential reverse causality issue this paper relies on an instrumental variable approach. The main statistical source is the REIC (Catalan Manufacturing Establishments Register), which has plant-level microdata on the location of plants in Catalan municipalities between 2002 and 2007. By using, for the first time, the foundation of cultural associations and urban population as historical instrumental variables, the results confirm CIs’ potential for new firm creation. JEL classifications: R39, Z100 Keywords: creative industries, cultural associations, industrial location, IV
    Keywords: Localització industrial, Economia de la cultura, 332 - Economia regional i territorial. Economia del sòl i de la vivenda,
    Date: 2017
  39. By: François Geerolf; Thomas Grjebine
    Abstract: We study the macroeconomic effects of aggregate tax changes using more than 100 property tax changes in advanced economies identified through the narrative record, and a structural VAR approach. Both methodologies lead to very similar estimates of tax multipliers that are higher than 2. The motivation behind using property taxes is threefold. First, property taxes are in theory the least distortive of all taxes, which allows to interpret our tax multipliers in terms of disposable income effects, and not in terms of supply or incentive effects. Second, the base for property taxes is not contemporaneously affected by GDP, unlike other major tax revenues, which considerably eases inference both in the narrative and in the structural VAR approaches. Third, the effects of property tax changes inform more broadly on the consequences of policies shifting the user cost of owner-occupied housing (including monetary policy). It casts a new light on a growing literature investigating the links between housing and macroeconomics: our results suggest that house prices have a much more muted impact on macroeconomic aggregates than was previously believed.
    Keywords: Multipliers;Consumption;User cost of housing
    JEL: E32 E62 H20 N12
    Date: 2018–03
  40. By: Mira Aliza Rachmawati (Universitas Islam Indonesia, Jl. Kaliurang km 14,5 Besi Sleman, 55584, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Nur Widiasmara Author-2-Workplace-Name: Universitas Islam Indonesia, Jl. Kaliurang km 14,5 Besi Sleman, 55584, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Thobagus Muh Nu'man Author-3-Workplace-Name: Universitas Islam Indonesia, Jl. Kaliurang km 14,5 Besi Sleman, 55584, Yogyakarta, Indonesia)
    Abstract: Objective – This study aims to determine the effect of differentiated instruction training on teachers' efficacy at inclusion schools in Jogjakarta. Methodology/Technique – The subjects in this study consist of 5 school teachers working in elementary inclusion schools in Baciro Yogyakarta. The data were collected using the Teacher Sense of Efficacy Scale (TSES), which is adapted from Woolfolk and Hoy (1993). This is an experimental study, using one group pre-test and post-test. The data is analyzed using the Wilcoxon test. Findings – The findings show that there is a significant difference in the efficacy of inclusion school teachers before and after the training is given, where the value Z = -2.023 and p = 0.0438 (p
    Keywords: Differentiated Instruction Training; Effectiveness; Teacher Efficacy; Inclusion Schools; Indonesia.
    JEL: I21 I29
  41. By: Filippova, Olga; Noy, Ilan
    Abstract: The Canterbury earthquakes of 2010-11 and the announcement of the national earthquake prone building strengthening policy in New Zealand has apparently hindered activity in the property market affecting especially the older stock requiring seismic upgrade. The purpose of this paper is to focus on lower-value regional urban centres and the economic hardship they face for strengthening their building stock. Our investigation focuses on one town, Whanganui, but, the picture we paint of this town, the cases we analyse, and the incentives we detail, apply equally to dozens of other towns in New Zealand. These difficulties are not unique to New Zealand, as many places, globally, face the need to upgrade their infrastructure for protection against disasters and where governments have been struggling with similar difficulties in initiating earthquake strengthening of existing buildings. We analyse the current incentive schemes that can assist in achieving the policy goals and suggest alternative incentive schemes that can be implemented.
    Keywords: Earthquake strengthening, Heritage buildings, Incentives, Canterbury earthquakes, Small regional towns,
    Date: 2018
  42. By: Tim Critchfield (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Jaya Dey (Freddie Mac); Nuno Mota (Fannie Mae); Saty Patrabansh (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
    Abstract: To date, research on rural mortgage markets in the United States has been limited by a lack of data on the specific mortgage experiences of borrowers living in rural areas. To fill this data gap, the National Survey of Mortgage Originations (NSMO) conducted a survey that oversampled people who took out mortgages in completely rural counties in 2014. This paper reports results from this survey, contrasting the characteristics, experiences, and loan terms of mortgage borrowers in completely rural counties to those of borrowers in metropolitan and other non-metropolitan areas. Completely rural counties are those with no urban cluster or an urban population less than 2,500. We find that borrowers in completely rural counties paid slightly higher interest rates on average and were less satisfied that their mortgage was the one with the best terms to fit their needs than borrowers in other areas. These results persist even after controlling for income, credit quality, and other borrower characteristics. Completely rural borrowers were less likely than other borrowers to be satisfied with the mortgage closing process, the timeliness of disclosures, and the disclosure documents themselves. Finally, compared with borrowers in more urban areas, borrowers in completely rural areas tend to be less confident or knowledgeable about some details of mortgages, and they are more likely to initiate contact with their lender.
    Date: 2018–03
  43. By: Kießling, Lukas (University of Bonn); Radbruch, Jonas (IZA); Schaube, Sebastian (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: In many natural environments, carefully chosen peers influence individual behavior. In this paper, we examine how self-selected peers affect performance in contrast to randomly assigned ones. We conduct a field experiment in physical education classes at secondary schools. Students participate in a running task twice: first, the students run alone, then with a peer. Before the second run,we elicit preferences for peers. We experimentally vary the matching in the second run and form pairs either randomly or based on elicited preferences. Self-selected peers improve individual performance by .14-.15 SD relative to randomly assigned peers. While self-selection leads to more social ties and lower performance differences within pairs, this altered peer composition does not explain performance improvements. Rather, we provide evidence that self-selection has a direct effect on performance and provide several markers that the social interaction has changed.
    Keywords: field experiment, self-selection, peer effects, social comparison, peer assignment
    JEL: C93 D01 I20 J24 L23
    Date: 2018–02
  44. By: Giovanni Cerulli (CNR-IRCrES); Maria Ventura (STICERD, London School of Economics); Christopher F Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: Criminality has always been part of human social interactions, shaping the way peoples have constructed states and legislation. As social order became a greater concern for the public authorities, interest in investigating incentives pushing individuals towards engaging in illegal activities has become a central issue of the political agenda. Building on the existing literature, this paper proposes to focus on a few primary determinants of crime, whose e ect is in- vestigated using a Responsiveness Scores (RS) approach performed over 50 US states during the period 2000-2012. The RS approach allows us to account for unit heterogeneous response to each single determinant, thus paving the way to a more in-depth analysis of the relation between crime and its drivers. We attempt to overcome the limitations posed by standard regression methods, which assume a single coecient for all determinants, thus contributing to the literature in the field with stronger evidence on determinants' e ects and the geographical patterns of responsiveness scores.
    Keywords: Crime, Incentives, Responsiveness Scores
    JEL: K42 J24 P46
    Date: 2018–03–31
  45. By: Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
    Abstract: This study proposes a spatial extension of time series generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. We call the spatial extended GARCH models as spatial GARCH (S-GARCH) models. S-GARCH models specify conditional variances given simultaneous observations, which constitutes a good contrast with time series GARCH models that specify conditional variances given past observations. The S-GARCH model are transformed into a spatial autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) model and the parameters of the S-GARCH model are estimated by a two step procedure. First step estimation is the quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation method and consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed QML estimators are given. Second step is estimation of an intercept term by the estimator derived from another QML to avoid bias in first step and consistency of the estimator is shown. We demonstrate empirical properties of the model by simulation studies and real data analyses of land price data in Tokyo areas. We find the estimators have small bias regardless of distributions of error terms from simulation studies and real data analyses show that spatial volatility in land price has global spillover and volatility clustering, namely units with higher spatial volatility are clustered in some specific districts like time series financial data.
    Date: 2018–03
  46. By: Del Boca, Daniela; Monfardini, Chiara; See, Sarah
    Abstract: Using data from OECD's PISA, Eurostat and World Bank's WDI, we explore how child cognitive outcomes at the aggregate country level are related to macroeconomic conditions, specifically government education expenditures and early education experience. We find that both government expenditures in educationand attendance to early child care are associated with better later school performance. We also consider different childcare characteristics such as duration and quality, which appear to have significant effects Our results may imply that policies encouraging childcare expansion should also take into account quality issues.
    Date: 2018–02
  47. By: Sanz Córdoba, Patricia; Theilen, Bernd, 1965-
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a country’s optimal fiscal strategy among centralization, decentralization, and partial tax harmonization. Countries are asymmetric in productivity levels and characterized by multi-level government such that there is both horizontal and vertical tax competition. The main result from the analysis is that partial tax harmonization is more difficult to achieve in fiscally decentralized economies with high levels of productivity and low labor taxation. This result is confirmed by recent data from the OECD and explains the observed difficulties in achieving capital tax harmonization in the European Union. JEL Classification Numbers: F15, F38, H20, H87 Key Words: Centralization; Decentralization; Fiscal Competition; Partial Tax Harmonization.
    Keywords: Integració econòmica, Organització de Cooperació i Desenvolupament Econòmic, Països de la -- Política fiscal, Harmonització fiscal, 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa,
    Date: 2017
  48. By: Rossella Iraci Capuccinello; Giuseppe Migali
    Keywords: High school dropout, Extracurricular Activities, Student Engagement, Propensity score matching
    JEL: I20 I21 I28
    Date: 2018
  49. By: Stanislao Maldonado (Universidad del Rosario)
    Abstract: This study uses variation in natural resource rents and mineral production among Peruvian municipalities to analyze the impact of resource booms on local politicians' behavior and citizens' well-being. Although this topic has recently attracted scholarly interest, existing empirical evidence remains inconclusive regarding whether resource booms are beneficial or detrimental to citizens via their effects on public good provision and living standards. Despite many existing theoretical models allowing for the possibility of non-monotonic responses, empirical literature has largely approached this phenomena using linear models, thus misunderstanding the complex nature of resource booms. By examining recent extraordinary mineral price increases along with particular rules for natural resource rent distribution in Peru, I show that the effects of resource booms on reelection outcomes, political competition, public goods provision, clientelism, and well-being are conditional to the size of the rents in a non-monotonic fashion. These results are robust to endogenous production responses and are consistent with recent theoretical scholarship for resource rich economies.
    Keywords: Resource booms, political competition, reelection, intergovernmental transfers
    JEL: D72 D78 Q33
    Date: 2018–04
  50. By: Paul Vertier; Max Viskanic
    Abstract: Can a small scale inflow of migrants affect electoral outcomes? We study whether the relocation of migrants from the Calais “Jungle” to temporary migrant-centers (CAOs) in France affected the results of the 2017 presidential election. Using an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities, we find that the presence of a CAO reduced the vote share increase of the far-right party (Front National) by about 15.7 percent. These effects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics and on the size of the inflow, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954)).
    Keywords: political economy, voting, migration, EU, France, migrants
    JEL: C36 D72 J15 P16 R23
    Date: 2018
  51. By: François Cohen (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Matthieu Glachant (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Magnus Söderberg (NIVA - Norwegian Institute for Water Research - Norwegian Institute for Water Research)
    Abstract: Using household-level data from the American Housing Survey, this paper assesses the cost of adapting housing to temperature increases. We account for both energy use adjustments and capital adjustments through investments in weatherization and heating and cooling equipment. Our best estimate of the present discounted value of the cost for adapting to the A2 « business-as-usual » climate scenario by the end of the century is $5,600 per housing unit, including both energy and investment costs. A more intense use of air conditioners will be compensated for by a reduction in heating need, leading to a shift from gas to electricity consumption.
    Date: 2017–01–29
  52. By: Roses, Joan R.; Wolf, Nikolaus
    Abstract: We provide the first long-run dataset of regional employment structures and regional GDP and GDP per capita in 1990 international dollars, stretching over more than 100 years. These data allow us to compare regions over time, among each other, and to other parts of the world. After some brief notes on methodology we describe the basic patterns in the data in terms of some key dimensions: variation in the density of population and economic activity, the spread of industry and services and the declining role of agriculture, and changes in the levels of GDP and GDP per capita. We next discuss patterns of convergence and divergence over time and their explanations in terms of short-run adjustment and long-run fundamentals. Also, we document for the first time a secular decrease in spatial coherence from 1900 to 2010. We find a U-shaped development in geographic concentration and regional income inequality, similar to the finding of a U-shaped pattern of personal income inequality.
    Keywords: regional inequality; Europe; long-run
    JEL: D31 N1 N9 R1
    Date: 2018–03
  53. By: Raymond Caraher (Hampshire College); Michael Ash (Department of Economics and School of Public Policy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
    Abstract: We replicate Ashraf and Galor (2013) and find that its conclusions concerning the association between human genetic diversity and economic development depend substantially on coding errors and sample selection. We correct the coding errors and add or update data on genetic diversity and population density from high-quality sources. We find little support for the hypothesis that variation in genetic diversity among subpopulations has a systematic relationship with economic development.
    Keywords: genetics, development
    JEL: N10 N30 N50 O10 O50 Z10
    Date: 2018
  54. By: Li, Chenhui; Lian, Xubei; Zhang, Zhi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between government education expenditure and regional innovation, a key engine of China's long-term economic growth as the nation undergoes massive economic restructuring and deep transformations. In an attempt to inform a whole-of-government approach in promoting indigenous knowledge generation, the authors examined the effect of two additional institutional factors, financial market development and Intellectual Property protection, as well as their interaction with education expenditure on regional innovation levels. By employing a sample of provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014, the authors find a significant positive correlation between education expenditure and regional innovation levels, an effect most pronounced in the Western provinces of China. Their analysis also revealed that financial market development augments the pro-innovation effect of education spending whereas a stronger IP protection regime could potentially mitigate such effect. The findings indicate that government investments in education as well as the creation of a more developed financial landscape will be effective ways to enhance regional innovation levels. However, attention should be paid to the nuances of the current IP protection system as well as the conduct of market players to pre-empt exploitations and enable greater incentives for sustained innovations.
    Keywords: education expenditure,innovation,financial market development,intellectual property protection
    JEL: I21 I28
    Date: 2018
  55. By: Alan White (FinPricing)
    Abstract: This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely in the CDS market.
    Keywords: valuation model,credit risk modeling,collateralization,correlation, CDS 1
    Date: 2018–03–20
  56. By: José A. Azar; Ioana Marinescu; Marshall I. Steinbaum; Bledi Taska
    Abstract: Using data on the near-universe of online US job vacancies collected by Burning Glass Technologies in 2016, we calculate labor market concentration using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) for each commuting zone by 6-digit SOC occupation. The average market has an HHI of 3,953, or the equivalent of 2.5 recruiting employers. 54% of labor markets are highly concentrated (above 2,500 HHI) according to the DOJ/FTC guidelines. Highly concentrated markets account for 17% of employment. All plausible alternative market definitions show that more than 33% of markets are highly concentrated, suggesting that employers have market power in many US labor markets.
    JEL: J21 J42 K21
    Date: 2018–03

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