nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒03‒05
fifty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Teacher Turnover: Does it Matter for Pupil Achievement? By Stephen Gibbons; Vincenzo Scrutinio; Shqiponja Telhaj
  2. Socially optimal fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities By Asplund, Disa; Pyddoke, Roger
  3. Family, Schools, or Culture: What Explains Differences in U.S. Student Achievement Across Ethnic Groups on PISA 2012? By Breton, Theodore R.
  4. Determinants of Slum Formation: The Role of Local Politics and Policies By Alves, Guillermo
  5. Do short-term rent platforms affect rents? Evidence from Airbnb in Barcelona By Segú, Mariona
  6. Financing Affordable and Sustainable Homeownership with Fixed-COFI Mortgages By Wayne Passmore; Alexander H. von Hafften
  7. Social Welfare Losses Due to Occupational Segregation by Gender and Race/Ethnicity in the U.S.: Are There Differences across Regions? By Coral del Río; Olga Alonso-Villar
  8. Information Spillover across International Real Estate Investment Trusts: Evidence from an Entropy-Based Network Analysis By Qiang Ji; Hardik A. Marfatia; Rangan Gupta
  9. The impact of the announcement of temporary building sites for refugees on house prices in Gothenburg By Kjellander, Josef; Nilsson, Viktor; van Vuuren, Aico
  10. Mortgage Debt and Time-Varying Monetary Policy Transmission By David Finck; Joerg Schmidt; Peter Tillmann
  11. Housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg By Sara Ferreira Filipe
  12. The role of technology in mortgage lending By Fuster, Andreas; Plosser, Matthew; Schnabl, Philipp; Vickery, James
  13. Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration By Ager, Philipp; Hansen, Casper Worm; Lønstrup, Lars
  14. Making Big Changes: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel By Susan Payne Carter; Abigail Wozniak
  15. Cohesion Policy Incentives for Collaborative Industrial Research. The Evaluation of a Smart Specialisation Forerunner Programme By Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua; Guido de Blasio
  16. Quantifying errors in travel time and cost by latent variables By Varela, Juan Manuel Lorenzo; Börjesson, Maria; Daly, Andrew
  17. One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification By Corsetti, G.; Duarte, J. B.; Mann, S.
  18. The Distributional Effects of Early School Stratification - Non-Parametric Evidence from Germany By Marcus Roller; Daniel Steinberg
  19. Lending Pro-Cyclicality and Macro-Prudential Policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV Ratios By Arito Ono; Hirofumi Uchida; Gregory Udell; Iichiro Uesugi
  20. One or Many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the Diverging Impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States By Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua
  21. Residential construction and population growth in New Zealand: 1996-2016 By Andrew Coleman; Özer Karagedikli
  22. Valuation for Property Tax Purposes By Zebong, Nyah; Fish, Paul; Prichard, Wilson
  23. Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences By Anke Becker; Benjamin Enke; Armin Falk
  24. Selection bias in historical housing data By Gray, Rowena
  25. Higher Frequency Hedonic Property Price Indices: A State Space Approach By Robert J. Hill; Alicia N. Rambaldi; Michael Scholz
  26. Public spending in education and student’s performance in Colombia By Laura Heras Recuero; Eduardo Olaberría
  27. Inter-firm Technological Proximity and Knowledge Spillovers By Koki Oikawa
  28. Agglomeration Economies in the Presence of an Informal Sector The Colombian Case By García, Gustavo A.
  29. Age at Arrival and Assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration By Rohan Alexander; Zachary Ward
  30. Taxation, Property Rights and the Social Contract in Lagos By Goodfellow, Tom; Owen, Olly
  31. Modeling how macroeconomic shocks a ect regional employment: analyzing the Brazilian formal labor market using the global VAR approach By Barbosa, Bruno Tebaldi de Queiroz; Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
  32. Roman Roads to Prosperity: Persistence and Non-Persistence of Public Goods Provision By Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Kaarsen, Nicolai; Olsson, Ola; Selaya, Pablo
  33. The Effects of Ethnic Chinese Minority on Vietnam’s Regional Economic Development in the Post-Vietnam War Period By Masami Imai; Tuan Anh Viet Nguyen
  34. Does fiscal oversight matter? By Christofzik, Désirée I.; Kessing, Sebastian
  35. To the ones in need or the ones you need? The Political Economy of Central Discretionary Grants − Empirical Evidence from Indonesia By Gerrit J. Gonschorek; Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir; Guenther G. Schulze
  36. How to decompose the R²?: A comment on Henderson et al. (2018) By Olivier Sterck
  37. Immigrant background and expected early school leaving in Europe: evidence from PISA By Ralph Hippe; Maciej Jakubowski
  38. Death by Pokémon GO: The Economic and Human Cost of Using Apps While Driving By Mara Faccio; John J. McConnell
  39. Strengthening IT Systems for Property Tax Reform By Prichard, Wilson; Fish, Paul
  40. Market governance in Kinshasa: the competition for informal revenue through ‘connections’ (branchement) By Nkuku, Albert Malukisa; Titeca, Kristof
  41. Is high-skilled migration harmful to tax systems' progressivity? By Laurent Simula; Alain Trannoy
  42. The Effect of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the Evacuees’ Unemployment and Earnings By Izumi Yamasaki; Rubkwan Thurmanpornphilas; Miho Takizawa; Tomohiko Inui
  43. Lies have long legs. Cheating, public scrutiny and loyalty in teams By Pietro Battiston; Simona Gamba; Matteo Rizzolli; Valentina Rotondi
  44. Inter-Firm Networks and Firm Performance: The Case of Italy By Chiara Burlina
  45. For a transformative Industry & Innovation Strategy By Pietro Moncada-Paterno-Castello; Alex Coad; Antonio Vezzani
  46. Linking Property Tax Revenue and Public Services By Prichard, Wilson
  47. Regional risk sharing and redistribution: The role of fiscal mechanisms in Switzerland By Feld, Lars P.; Schaltegger, Christoph A.; Studerus, Janine
  48. Naive Learning in Social Networks with Random Communication By Bernd (B.) Heidergott; Jia-Ping Huang; Ines (I.) Lindner
  49. Preparing Youth in Special Education for Life After High School (Fact Sheet) By Johanna Lacoe; Stephen Lipscomb; Joshua Haimson
  50. Polarization, employment, participation and minimum wage : Evidence from European local labor markets By Paul Maarek; Elliot Moiteaux
  51. Decomposing the Racial Gap in STEM Major Attrition A Course-Level Investigation By Matthew D. Baird; Moshe Buchinsky; Veronica Sovero

  1. By: Stephen Gibbons; Vincenzo Scrutinio; Shqiponja Telhaj
    Abstract: Recent research has established that teachers matter for student achievements, albeit because of dimensions of 'teacher quality' that are largely unexplained. A less closely investigated issue is whether teacher turnover directly harms student academic achievement. In this paper, we examine whether teacher turnover affects academic achievement of 16 year old state secondary school students using a unique data set of linked students and teachers in England. Identification comes from either: a school fixed effects design which exploits year-on-year variation in turnover in different subject groups, within schools; or student fixed effect design that where the variation comes from the cross sectional variation in turnover in different subjects, in the same school, experienced by a student. Both methods give similar results, suggesting that a higher teacher entry rate reduces students' test scores, albeit by small amounts.
    Keywords: teachers, turnover, student attainment, schools
    JEL: H4 I2 J24
    Date: 2018–02
  2. By: Asplund, Disa (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Pyddoke, Roger (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))
    Abstract: This paper evaluates welfare effects of optimization of fares and frequencies for bus services in small cities. The model used takes into account both congestion on streets and crowding in public transport vehicles, and is calibrated with data for the Swedish city of Uppsala. Four policies are evaluated: optimal fares with unchanged baseline frequencies, optimal frequencies with unchanged baseline fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies, and finally a so-called Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, and origin-destination pair) should be worse off in terms of generalized cost of each trip. The results indicate that there would be large, robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions of supply compared with the current situation are large. The welfare gains from adjusting fares would be smaller. The large reductions in consumer welfare in the welfare optimum, however, are likely to be controversial. In the Pareto scenario, almost all potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario are achieved with no consumer in any zone or time period being worse off compared with the baseline policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers is increased and emissions are reduced compared with the current situation.
    Keywords: Public transport; bus; demand model; fares; frequencies; supply; optimization; urban; welfare
    JEL: R10 R41 R48
    Date: 2018–02–19
  3. By: Breton, Theodore R.
    Abstract: U.S. students in different ethnic groups have very different average scores on the PISA 2012 mathematics and reading tests, with Blacks and Hispanics showing negative gaps relative to White students and Asians showing a positive gap. I investigate whether a student’s family characteristics or the school attended can explain these differences. I find that Hispanic parents’ low average education explains the largest share of the Hispanic achievement gap. In contrast, most of the larger negative gap for Blacks and the positive gap for Asians cannot be explained by family characteristics or the school they attend. Attendance at “bad” schools explains relatively little of the negative gaps, but Black students’ mathematics scores are substantially lower when they compose more than 50% of the class, which is not the case for Hispanic students. This evidence suggests that ethnic group culture is an important cause of Black and Asian student achievement gaps.
    Keywords: Cognitive skills; ethnic groups; family characteristics; schools; culture
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2017–12–17
  4. By: Alves, Guillermo
    Abstract: One-third of the developing world’s population lives in urban slums and the absolute number of slum residents grew from 650 million in 1990 to 863 million in 2012. Although negative impacts of slum living conditions on several dimensions of slum residents’ lives are well documented, much less research exists on why slums emerge and grow in the first place. This paper provides novel evidence on the effect of local political conditions and slum policies on slum growth. Using a regression discontinuity design in close municipal elections in Brazil, I show that victories by a center-left, pro-poor party led to both more slum upgrading policies and a higher share of slum housing. I further show evidence indicating that the pro-slum incentive effect from slum upgrading policies was the main mechanism behind this party’s effect on slum growth. By highlighting the relevance of local institutional conditions for understanding where slums are more likely to grow, these findings innovate over traditional explanations based on the role of rural-urban migration and rapid urban economic growth. This paper’s evidence on the potential incentive effect of slum upgrading policies on slum growth does not imply that slums upgrading efforts should stop. Given the solid evidence on the positive impacts of slum upgrading programs on the lives of the poor, these programs should continue to develop, and governments should consider, for example, complementing slum upgrading efforts with policies expanding the supply of non-slum housing.
    Keywords: Ciudades, Desarrollo social, Desarrollo urbano, Innovación social, Investigación socioeconómica, Pobreza, Vivienda,
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Segú, Mariona
    Abstract: Peer-to-peer platforms such as airbnb have recently entered the market thanks to the development of new technologies and their influence on traditional markets remains still understudied. Similarly, the multiplicity of local regulations adopted by big touristic cities in developed countries shows a lack of consensus both on the consequences and on the role of regulation. However, the actual impact of airbnb’s market entry on rents remains still unknown. I assess the causal impact of the beginning of airbnb’s economic activity on housing rents for the city of Barcelona using a Bartiklike instrumental strategy. Results suggest that airbnb is responsible for a 4% increase in rents.
    Keywords: Housing rents, short term rentals, airbnb
    JEL: R10 R20 R31
    Date: 2018–02
  6. By: Wayne Passmore; Alexander H. von Hafften
    Abstract: The 30-year fixed-rate fully amortizing mortgage (or “traditional fixed-rate mortgage”) was a substantial innovation when first developed during the Great Depression. However, it has three major flaws. First, because homeowner equity accumulates slowly during the first decade, homeowners are essentially renting their homes from lenders. With this sluggish equity accumulation, many lenders require large down payments. Second, in each monthly mortgage payment, homeowners substantially compensate capital markets investors for the ability to prepay. The homeowners might have better uses for this money. Third, refinancing mortgages is often very costly. Expensive refinancing may prevent homeowners from taking advantage of falling rates.{{p}}{{p}}To resolve these three flaws, we propose a new fixed-rate mortgage, called the Fixed-Payment-COFI mortgage (or “Fixed-COFI mortgage”). This mortgage has fixed monthly payments equal to payments for traditional fixed-rate mortgages and does not require a down payment. Also, unlike traditional fixed-rate mortgages, Fixed-COFI mortgages do not bundle mortgage financing with compensation paid to capital markets investors for bearing prepayment risks; instead, this money is directed toward lower monthly payments or toward purchasing the home. The Fixed-COFI mortgage exploits the often-present prepayment-risk “wedges” between the fixed-rate mortgage rate and the estimated cost of funds index (COFI) mortgage rate. In addition, the Fixed-COFI mortgage is a highly profitable asset for many mortgage lenders.{{p}}{{p}}We discuss two variations of the Fixed-COFI mortgage. Homeowners with “affordable” Fixed-COFI mortgages are rebated the “wedges” between the traditional fixed-rate mortgage payments and the COFI mortgage payment. After the “wedges” are rebated, these homeowners may pay substantially less to purchase their homes in 30 years than homeowners with traditional fixed-rate mortgages. This mortgage design may help alleviate housing affordability pressures in many areas of the United States.{{p}}{{p}}The other variation of Fixed-COFI mortgage is the “homeownership” Fixed-COFI mortgage. With the “homeownership” Fixed-COFI mortgage, the homeowner commits to a savings program based on the difference between fixed-rate mortgage
    Keywords: Downpayment ; COFI ; Fixed-rate mortgage ; Cost of funds ; Homeownership ; Interest rates ; Mortgage
    JEL: G01 G21 G23 G28 R28 R30 R38
    Date: 2018–02–05
  7. By: Coral del Río; Olga Alonso-Villar
    Abstract: Taking into account the well-being losses or gains that each gender-race/ethnicity group has associated with its occupational sorting, this paper explores the social welfare loss that each U.S. large region experiences due to the different circumstances faced by these groups in each regional labor market. To analyze the period 1980–2012 in those terms, we use novel measures that aggregate the well-being losses or gains of the groups consistently with the literature on deprivation. To take into account that disparities among regions may arise from differences in characteristics, this papers uses a propensity score procedure that allows controlling for gender and racial/ethnic composition, immigration profile, educational level, and industrial structure.
    Keywords: Occupational segregation; social welfare; gender; race, regions
    JEL: D63 D23 J15 J71
    Date: 2018–02
  8. By: Qiang Ji (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China); Hardik A. Marfatia (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, Chicago, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: In this study, we unveil information spillover between international real estate markets using an entropy-based network approach for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Our novel approach is simple and yet flexible enough to accommodate the nature and extent of information spillover among several components of the global housing network. For a network of nine leading industrial economies, we unveil static and time-varying information spillover of REIT returns using total transfer entropy, pairwise net transfer entropy and directional (“From”, “To”) transfer entropy. Evidence suggests that the greatest pairwise transfer entropy is from the US to Australia, whereas France, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Singapore are the largest information recipients in the network. The time-varying evolution of total transfer entropy also exhibits a declining trend, supporting the decoupling hypothesis for the global housing market network. The extreme value analysis shows the changing role of US and UK housing markets.
    Keywords: REIT, Entropy transfer, Information spillover, Market integration
    JEL: R30 R33 G14
    Date: 2018–02
  9. By: Kjellander, Josef (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Nilsson, Viktor (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); van Vuuren, Aico (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: We evaluate the price development of apartments in neighborhoods surrounding temporary housing for refugees using the unpredicted announcement of three building sites, targeting refugees, in Gothenburg. More in particular, we look at the price development in the year after the announcement. We use a causal outcome model that takes account of time and postal-code fixed effects and we define an area to be affected by the announcement based on walking distance. We find support for a small price effect.
    Keywords: House prices; migration
    JEL: O15 O18 R31
    Date: 2018–02
  10. By: David Finck (University of Giessen); Joerg Schmidt (University of Giessen); Peter Tillmann (University of Giessen)
    Abstract: We study the role of monetary policy for the dynamics of U.S. mortgage debt, which is the largest component of household indebtedness. A time-varying parameter VAR model allows us to study the variation in the mortgage debt sensitivity to monetary policy. We find that an identically-sized policy shock became less effective over time. We use a DSGE model to show that a fall in the share of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) could replicate this finding. Calibrating the model to the drop in the ARM share since the 1980s yields a drop in the sensitivity of housing debt to monetary policy which is quantitatively similar to the VAR results. A sacrifice ratio for mortgage debt reveals that a policy tightening directed towards reducing household debt became more expensive in terms of a loss in employment. Counterfactuals show that this result cannot be attributed to changes in monetary policy itself. The results are consistent with the "mortgage rate conundrum" found by Justiniano et al. (2017) and have strong implications for policy.
    Keywords: mortgage debt, monetary policy, deleveraging, time-varying VAR, DSGE
    JEL: E3 E5 G2
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Sara Ferreira Filipe
    Abstract: This paper investigates the interaction between residential housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg over the period 1980Q1-2017Q1. We use a vector error correction framework to model this interaction and allow for feedback effects between the two variables. In the long-run, higher housing prices lead to a mortgage credit expansion, which in turn puts upward pressure on prices. The growing demand for mortgage credit is also sustained by positive net migration to Luxembourg. Construction activity is another important determinant of housing prices, in line with existing supply-side limitations on dwelling availability. These dynamics lead to a structural imbalance between housing supply and demand, with the latter being fueled by demographic factors, tax incentives and fiscal subsidies, as well as the low interest rate environment. While price dynamics are partially explained by these structural factors, our results suggest that over the last few years residential housing prices have been characterized by a moderate, but persistent, overvaluation with respect to market fundamentals. Between 2012Q1 and 2017Q1, the average overvaluation is estimated at 6.85% but its trend is decreasing in the last quarters. Results also show that housing prices have a slow rate of adjustment to deviations from fundamentals (only 2.2% of the misalignment is corrected each quarter) and they do not directly adjust to disequilibria in the mortgage market. These _ndings are supported by impulse response analysis, which suggests that shocks to the endogenous variables lead to permanent increases in housing prices.
    Keywords: Residential real estate, housing market, VECM, property price valuation
    JEL: C58 G12 G18 R31
    Date: 2018–02
  12. By: Fuster, Andreas (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Plosser, Matthew (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Schnabl, Philipp (NYU Stern School of Business, NBER, and CEPR); Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Technology-based (“FinTech”) lenders increased their market share of U.S. mortgage lending from 2 percent to 8 percent from 2010 to 2016. Using market-wide, loan-level data on U.S. mortgage applications and originations, we show that FinTech lenders process mortgage applications about 20 percent faster than other lenders, even when controlling for detailed loan, borrower, and geographic observables. Faster processing does not come at the cost of higher defaults. FinTech lenders adjust supply more elastically than other lenders in response to exogenous mortgage demand shocks, thereby alleviating capacity constraints associated with traditional mortgage lending. In areas with more FinTech lending, borrowers refinance more, especially when it is in their interest to do so. We find no evidence that FinTech lenders target marginal borrowers. Our results suggest that technological innovation has improved the efficiency of financial intermediation in the U.S. mortgage market.
    Keywords: mortgage; technology; prepayments; nonbanks
    JEL: D14 D24 G21 G23
    Date: 2018–02–01
  13. By: Ager, Philipp (Department of Business and Economics); Hansen, Casper Worm (University of Copenhagen); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects on the spatial distribution of economic activity caused by historical shocks. Using variation in the potential damage intensity of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake across cities in the American West, we show that more severely affected cities experienced lower population growth relative to less affected cities after the earthquake. This negative effect persisted until the late 20th century. The earthquake diverted migrants to less affected areas in the region, which, together with reinforcing dynamic agglomeration effects from scale economies, left a long-lasting mark on the location of economic activity in the American West.
    Keywords: Economic geography; Location of economic activity; Migration; Natural disasters
    JEL: O15 O40 R11 R12
    Date: 2018–02–12
  14. By: Susan Payne Carter; Abigail Wozniak
    Abstract: We use exogenously determined, long-distance relocations of U.S. Army soldiers to investigate the impact of moving on marriage. We find that marriage rates increase sharply around the time of a move in an event study analysis. Reduced form exposure analysis reveals that an additional move over a five year period increases the likelihood of marriage by 14 percent. Moves increase childbearing by a similar magnitude, suggesting that marriages induced by a move are formed with long-term intentions. These findings are consistent with a model where the marriage decision is costly and relocation lowers the costs to making this decision. Our results have implications for understanding how people make major life decisions such as marriage, as well as the cost of migration.
    JEL: J1 J12 J13 J61
    Date: 2018–02
  15. By: Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua; Guido de Blasio
    Abstract: This paper evaluates a program of subsidies for Collaborative Industrial Research (co-) funded by the EU Cohesion Policy in Italy mobilizing over 1 billion euros. This program anticipated in the 2007-2013 funding cycle some of the key features of Smart Specialization Strategy (S3) programmes, offering evidence-based insights on potential challenges to the practical application of the S3 approach. The programme was not successful in boosting investments, value added or employment of beneficiary firms. The collaborative dimension of the projects added limited value and a more generous level funding would have not improved effectiveness. However, positive impacts emerged in low tech sectors.
    Keywords: Cohesion Policy, Smart Specialisation, Policy Evaluation, Innovation, European Union
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Varela, Juan Manuel Lorenzo (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Börjesson, Maria (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Daly, Andrew (ITS, Leeds)
    Abstract: Travel time and travel cost are key variables for explaining travel behaviour and deriving the value of time. However, a general problem in transport modelling is that these variables are subject to measurement errors in transport network models. In this paper we show how to assess the magnitude of the measurement errors in travel time and travel cost by latent variables, in a large-scale travel demand model. The case study for Stockholm commuters shows that assuming multiplicative measurement errors for travel time and cost result in a better fit than additive ones; however, when measurement errors are modelled, the estimated time and cost parameters are robust to the modelling assumptions. Moreover, our results suggest that measurement errors in our dataset are larger for the travel cost than for the travel time, and that measurement errors are larger in self-reported travel time than software-calculated travel time for car-driver and car-passenger, and of similar magnitude for public transport. Among self-reported travel times, car-passenger has the largest errors, followed by car-driver and public transport, and for the software-calculated times, public transport exhibits larger errors than car. These errors, if not corrected, lead to biases in measures derived from the models, such as elasticity and values of travel time.
    Keywords: Hybrid choice models; Latent variables; Error quantification; Measurement error models; RP Value of Time; Self-reported indicators
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2018–02–20
  17. By: Corsetti, G.; Duarte, J. B.; Mann, S.
    Abstract: We reconsider the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, High-Frequency Identification, Monetary Union, Labour Market, Housing Market.
    JEL: E21 E31 E44 E52 F44
    Date: 2018–02–22
  18. By: Marcus Roller; Daniel Steinberg (University of Basel)
    Abstract: The effects of early school stratification on scholastic performance have been subject to controversial debates in educational policy and science. We exploit a unique variation in Lower Saxony, Germany, where performance based tracking was preponed from grade 7 to grade 5 in 2004. We measure the long-run effects of early school stratification on in- dividual PISA test scores along the entire skill distriubution using the changes-in-changes estimator. Our results indicate that preponed school tracking increased test scores at the upper tail and lowered test scores at the lower tail of the skill distribution, compensating each other on average.
    Keywords: Analysis of Education, Education and Inequality, Tracking, Government Policy
    JEL: I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Arito Ono; Hirofumi Uchida; Gregory Udell; Iichiro Uesugi
    Abstract: Using a large and unique micro dataset compiled from the official real estate registry in Japan, we examine the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for business loans from 1975 to 2009 to draw some implications for the ongoing debate on the use of LTV ratio caps as a macro-prudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality, implying that the increase (decrease) in loan volume is smaller than the increase (decrease) in land values during booms(busts). Most importantly, LTV ratios are at their lowest during the bubble period in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The counter-cyclicality of LTV ratios is robust to controlling for various characteristics of loans, borrowers, and lenders. We also find that borrowers that exhibited high-LTV loans performed no worse ex-post than those with lower LTV loans, and sometimes performed better during the bubble period. Our findings imply that a simple fixed cap on LTV ratios might not only be ineffective in curbing loan volume in boom periods but also inhibit well-performing firms from borrowing. This casts doubt on the efficacy of employing a simple LTV cap as an effective macro-prudential policy measure.
  20. By: Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua
    Abstract: Do regions in all Member States (MSs) of the European Union (EU) benefit from Cohesion Policy? Are regional impacts persistently diversified across countries? In order to answer these questions this paper explores how the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on growth and employment varies across countries. A spatial Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) makes it possible estimate distinct but fully comparable impacts for each individual MS both before the Great Recession and during recovery. The results show that Cohesion Policy has exerted a positive and significant EU-wide impact on both regional economic growth and employment. However, regional impacts are not evenly distributed across MSs. Large part of the regional growth bonus generated by Cohesion Policy is concentrated in Germany. Conversely, impacts on regional employment are confined to the United Kingdom. The picture for beneficiary regions in Southern European Member States is less rosy with positive impacts on employment in Italy until the Great Recession and on economic growth in the recovery period in Spain.
    Keywords: Cohesion policy, European Union, regions, growth, employment
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2018–02
  21. By: Andrew Coleman; Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: This paper aims to understand how population growth has affected building activity in New Zealand regions during the last twenty years. Using panel data regression techniques, we estimate that 0.25 – 0.30 additional houses are built for every additional person in a region. The additional 0.25 – 0.30 building permits per person equate to about 40 m2 of new construction, with a value of just over $60,000 in 2016 terms. This construction is in addition to the ‘background’ construction that occurs to replace old houses, which amounts to 2.5 – 3.0 dwellings per 1,000 people per year, or approximately 11,000 – 13,000 dwellings per year. The estimates suggest Auckland’s construction shortfall between 1996 and 2016 was between 40,000 and 55,000 dwellings, or approximately 10 percent of Auckland’s housing stock. The estimates of the shortfall are fairly robust to changes in the specification of the models; moreover, they all suggest that the shortfall was modest until the end of 2005, when it increased rapidly. We also examine the relationship between the size of newly constructed dwellings and population change. Since four of the sixteen New Zealand regions experienced almost no population growth over the period, it is possible to contrast the size of newly constructed houses in regions experiencing population change with those that did not. These estimates suggest that, at least until 2005, smaller houses were constructed in growing regions with above-average incomes, particularly Auckland and Wellington, than in growing regions with below average incomes or in regions with no population growth. This difference appears to reflect the much younger age profile of the residents of Auckland and Wellington. It appears that Auckland’s housing shortfall was less severe prior to 2005 precisely because of the large number of small apartments that were constructed in the city. Not until apartment construction almost completely ceased in 2008 did Auckland’s housing shortage started to become acute. Finally, we analyse the relationship between population growth rates and the number of ‘residential’ construction workers. Our estimates suggest that a 1 percent increase in population growth rates is associated with a 0.4 – 0.5 percentage point increase in the fraction of the workforce in the construction sector. Since regions with zero population growth have 4.5 – 5 percent of their workers involved in residential construction, each percentage increase in the population growth rate increases the number of residential construction workers by approximately 10 percent. This does not include additional workers in related industries such as building materials. Auckland is again an outlier. For most of the period Auckland had approximately 9000 fewer construction workers than could be expected from trends around the rest of the country. Clearly, if this shortfall continues it will be difficult for Auckland to overcome its housing shortage.
    Date: 2018–02
  22. By: Zebong, Nyah; Fish, Paul; Prichard, Wilson
    Abstract: Improving processes for valuing properties lies at the heart of efforts to improve the overall effectiveness of property taxation. Effective property taxation is impossible without efficient property valuation. In practice, however, valuation rolls across most of Africa are incomplete and severely out-of-date, thus dramatically reducing potential property tax yield. This is, at least in part, a function of history: many of the valuation models being used on the continent do not reflect best practices and local learning, but are inherited vestiges of colonial systems that no longer respond adequately to local needs. The need to modernise is urgent, but progress has been slow. Effective reform needs to consider two broad questions: (i) the extent to which market value or physical attributes of the property should be the basis for valuation; and (ii) which organ of government should be responsible for valuation, and how should it be organised? Answers to these questions may vary across countries. There is, however, growing agreement that the central need in most countries is to simplify existing valuation processes, to better align them with the realities of undeveloped local property markets and constrained administrative capacity.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Governance,
    Date: 2017
  23. By: Anke Becker; Benjamin Enke; Armin Falk
    Abstract: Variation in economic preferences is systematically related to both individual and aggregate economic outcomes, yet little is known about the origins of the worldwide preference variation. This paper uses globally representative data on risk aversion, time preference, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, and trust to uncover that contemporary preference heterogeneity has its roots in the structure of the temporally distant migration patterns of our very early ancestors: In dyadic regressions, differences in preferences between populations are significantly increasing in the length of time elapsed since the ancestors of the respective groups broke apart from each other. To document this pattern, we link genetic and linguistic distance measures to population-level preference differences (i) in a wide range of cross-country regressions, (ii) in within-country analyses across groups of migrants, and (iii) in analyses that leverage variation across linguistic groups. While temporal distance drives differences in all preferences, the patterns are strongest for risk aversion and prosocial traits.
    JEL: D03
    Date: 2018–02
  24. By: Gray, Rowena
    Abstract: A new sample containing rental price and characteristic data for over 15,000 New York City units was collected from historical newspapers for the period 1880 to 1910. These units were geolocated to the historical map of Manhattan Island to explore their geographic coverage, using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. This paper presents the new sample and discusses its representativeness of the New York City housing market during the sample period, with reference to the (limited) previous measures available in the literature and an analysis of the summary statistics of various subsamples of the data which can highlight selection biases. Finally, an analysis of the social status and ethnic composition of individuals located in the sample units in Census year 1880 is presented. Understanding the biases that might be present in this new sample will inform its usefulness in uncovering the workings of historical housing markets and in contributing to the scarce available information on historical housing costs.
    Keywords: real estate markets,historical house rental price data,selection bias,US economic history,New York City,historical GIS
    JEL: J15 R31 N91
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Alicia N. Rambaldi (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia); Michael Scholz (University of Graz, Austria)
    Abstract: The hedonic imputation method estimates separate characteristic shadow prices for each period. These are used to construct matched samples, which are inserted into standard price index formulas. We implement two innovations to improve the method’s effectiveness on housing data at higher frequencies. First, we use a time-varying parameter model in state-space form to increase the reliability of the estimated characteristic shadow prices. Second, we significantly reduce the number of parameters by replacing postcode dummies by a geospatial spline surface. Empirically, using a novel criterion, we show that in higher frequency comparisons our hedonic method outperforms competing alternatives.
    Keywords: Housing market; Hedonic imputation; State Space Model; Geospatial data; Spline; Quality adjustment; Matched sample
    JEL: C33 C43 R31
    Date: 2018–02
  26. By: Laura Heras Recuero; Eduardo Olaberría
    Abstract: This paper investigates if higher public spending in education and better teacher qualifications are related to student’s performance, using data from Saber 11, a national standardized test conducted by Instituto Colombiano para la Evaluación de la Educación. The estimation exploits differences in both policy variables across regions and employs interactions to study if more investment in public education and higher teacher qualifications can help increase average performance and reduce the impact that socioeconomic factors, such as family income, have on student performance. The analysis proposes a model where student performance in Mathematics and Language are dependent not only on the variables of interest of this paper, but also on economic, social and cultural status, sex and age of students, and school characteristics. The results show that students’ characteristics and their environment, school features and departmental differences in the policy variables explain roughly 20% of the variation in education performance in Colombia, a relatively high percentage when compared to those found by other studies focusing on OECD countries and based on PISA. After controlling for students’ and school characteristics, the results show that in Colombia, public spending per student and teacher qualifications are positively related to better learning outcomes. For the first one, the results suggest that if all regions reach the level of spending per student of Bogota – the region with the highest spending – average math scores can increase by 3.8 to 4.3 points (around 8%), depending on the regions, with the highest improvement for low income students.
    Keywords: human capital, inequality, language scores, maths scores, public spending, Quality of education
    JEL: H0 I20 I24 J00 J1
    Date: 2018–02–23
  27. By: Koki Oikawa
    Abstract: This paper has two objectives. One is to survey previous studies concerning indicators of technological proximity and distance to identify technological relationships between firms, particularly in terms of spillovers of technology and knowledge. The other objective is to reexamine the spillover effect in research and development by combining the traditional technological proximity with a measurement of within-field technological relationships, which is based on patent citation overlaps. I find that the average technological proximity is increasing over these three decades in the United States and within-field technological proximity shows sizable variations, and that the spillover effect is underestimated unless the changes in within- field proximities are taken into account.Length: 27 pages
  28. By: García, Gustavo A.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration economies and productivity in the context of a developing country while taking into account the marked presence of an informal sector. Using data from Colombia, we investigate the effect of agglomeration economies on formal and informal productivity. We examine whether the informal sector achieves benefits from agglomeration economies as well as whether there are differences between the formal and informal sectors in terms of agglomeration returns. We find that agglomeration economies, measured by the density of local employment, have a significantly positive effect on productivity in the informal sector, while there is little effect in the formal sector. We estimate an elasticity of wages with respect to employment density of approximately 2% for the informal sector, which implies that informal workers in denser areas will earn approximately 11% more than those in less dense areas.
    Keywords: Agglomeration economies, informal sector, Colombia
    JEL: R12 J31 R23
    Date: 2018–01–26
  29. By: Rohan Alexander; Zachary Ward
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of age at arrival for immigrant outcomes with a new dataset of arrivals linked to the 1940 United States Census. Using within-family variation, we find that arriving at an older age, or having more childhood exposure to the European environment, led to a more negative wage gap relative to the native born. Infant arrivals had a positive wage gap relative to natives, in contrast to a negative gap for teenage arrivals. Therefore, a key determinant of immigrant outcomes during the Age of Mass Migration was the country of residence during critical periods of childhood development.
    Keywords: Age at arrival, Assimilation, Childhood environment.
    JEL: N31 F22 J61
    Date: 2018–03
  30. By: Goodfellow, Tom; Owen, Olly
    Abstract: Major taxation reforms over the past decade have been interpreted as facilitating the transformation of Lagos: once widely seen as a city in permanent crisis, it is now seen by some observers as a beacon of megacity development. Most academic attention has focused on personal income taxation, which comprises the lion’s share of government revenue in Lagos. Less attention has been devoted to another crucial innovation over the same period – the Land Use Charge – and other forms of tax related to property. In this paper we show how the story of property taxation in Lagos since the early 2000s is important, not only in terms of the enormous increase in collection, but because of the ways in which property-related taxes have helped to support personal income taxation and to solidify the fiscal contract between state and society more broadly. Moreover, we explore how the payment of the Land Use Charge is interpreted by taxpayers, and how it is used alongside a plethora of other documents and processes to try and shore up fragile claims to property. In a context of intensely insecure tenure, particularly but not exclusively at the lower ends of the socio-economic spectrum, both taxation and other kinds of formal and informal payments play a key role in efforts to incrementally build and solidify property rights.
    Keywords: Governance,
    Date: 2018
  31. By: Barbosa, Bruno Tebaldi de Queiroz; Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
    Abstract: Assessing linkages across different regions and how macroeconomic shocks spread out across regions is not an easy task. In this study we address this problem using a global vector autoregressive methodology that deals with the curse of dimensionality in an ingenious form. Focusing on the Brazilian labor market, identified and quantified how a shock in an aggregate economic activity spreads out regionally and throughout time. Another novelty of our work is the use of information collected by the Brazilian Bureau of Geography and Statistics to measure how regions are linked by analyzing infrastructure linkages of Brazilian municipalities in terms of airports, roads, ports, education, health, and tourism activities. Interdependence among regions is measured not only by closeness but also by considering economic linkages. In terms of regional sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks, we provide evidence that these shocks tend to cause stronger effects on the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions than the Northeast and North regions. This conclusion is in line with the idea that the formal labor market is better developed in the former regions than the latter. The South, Southeast, and Midwest regions in Brazil have better economic and social indicators.
    Date: 2018–02
  32. By: Dalgaard, Carl-Johan (University of Copenhagen, CAGE (Warwick) and CEPR (London)); Kaarsen, Nicolai (Danish Economic Council); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Selaya, Pablo (University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: How persistent is public goods provision in a comparative perspective? We explore the link between infrastructure investments made during antiquity and the presence of infrastructure today, as well as the link between early infrastructure and economic activity both in the past and in the present, across the entire area under dominion of the Roman Empire at the zenith of its geographical extension (117 CE). We find a remarkable pattern of persistence showing that greater Roman road density goes along with (a) greater modern road density, (b) greater settlement for-mation in 500 CE, and (c) greater economic activity in 2010. Interestingly, however, the degree of persistence in road density and the link between early road density and contemporary economic development is weakened to the point of insignificance in areas where the use of wheeled vehicles was abandoned from the first millennium CE until the late modern period. Taken at face value, our results suggest that infrastructure may be one important channel through which persistence in comparative development comes about.
    Keywords: Roman roads; Roman Empire; public goods; infrastructure; persistence
    JEL: H41 O40
    Date: 2018–02
  33. By: Masami Imai; Tuan Anh Viet Nguyen
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Hoa, an ethnically Chinese, economically dominant minority, on regional economic development in Vietnam. To address the endogeneity of the geographical distribution of the Hoa, we use an important historical episode: the rapid deterioration in Sino-Vietnamese diplomatic relationship that led many ethnic Chinese to flee abroad, particularly to the refugee camps in the Guangxi province of China, in 1979. We find that the effects of proximity to the refugee camps on the share of ethnic Chinese in 1989 were more pronounced for provinces that had a larger presence of the ethnic Chinese population in 1979. We also find strong correlations between the 1989 share of ethnic Chinese (instrumented) and contemporary indicators of economic performance. The results suggest that the ethnic Chinese minority had positive economic impacts on Vietnam’s regional economies and that the post-Vietnam War exodus of ethnic Chinese was likely to have had long-term negative economic impacts.Length: 55 pages
  34. By: Christofzik, Désirée I.; Kessing, Sebastian
    Abstract: A gradually introduced reform of local government accounting made it temporarily possible for municipalities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia to avoid the effective control of their budget by the authorities in charge of overseeing local government budgets and enforcing the existing fiscal rules. Using this withdrawal of effective fiscal oversight, we identify the effects of fiscal restraints and their enforcement on fiscal outcomes. We find that the withdrawal of oversight has a significant and sizable effect on per capita debt of local governments that were previously constrained by fiscal oversight. Fiscal restraints are important, and oversight and enforcement are key requirements for their success.
    Keywords: fiscal oversight,fiscal rules,local government debt
    JEL: H72 H74 R50
    Date: 2018
  35. By: Gerrit J. Gonschorek; Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir; Guenther G. Schulze (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: We analyze the allocation of discretionary grants from the central government to local governments in Indonesia. Using OLS and Fixed Effects models on an unbalanced panel data set for more than 400 Indonesian districts covering the period 2005-2013, we investigate whether the allocation of the grants is determined by the need of a district, by political alignment of the central government with the local district heads, or by reelection motives of the incumbent president. We find that grant allocations are not determined by need characteristics and that political considerations matter significantly. Districts with low support for the president received significantly more than the core supporting districts, especially in the year of national elections. This effect is limited to the first term of the president. In the second term, after which reelection is impossible, political considerations were largely absent. This pattern is consistent with the view that the incumbent president considers discretionary grants as an instrument to increase reelection probabilities. Unlike the evidence for most countries, we find no effect for political party alignment with local district heads. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a number of other variables capturing competing motives.
    Keywords: Intergovernmental transfer, Discretionary grants, Political alignment, Core/Swing voter, Fiscal decentralization, Indonesia
    JEL: D72 H72 H77
    Date: 2018–01
  36. By: Olivier Sterck
    Abstract: Henderson et al. (2018) assessed the economic importance of 24 geographic variables in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity, as proxied by night lights. In this short piece, I first show that the method they used to measure the economic importance of effects - the Shapley value - is flawed, implying that some their results are misleading. Second, I use an axiomatic approach to build a new method for assessing the economic importance of effects, which corrects for the identified flaws. Finally, I revisit the conclusions of Henderson et al. (2018) in light of the new method.
    Keywords: Economic importance; Shapley values; Development; Physical geography; Agriculture
    JEL: B4 C18 O13 R12
    Date: 2018
  37. By: Ralph Hippe (European Commission - JRC); Maciej Jakubowski (University of Warsaw and Evidence Institute)
    Abstract: This technical brief analyses the relationship between immigrant status and educational expectations in PISA. Immigrants have become a very policy-relevant issue during the last recent years, in particular with the occurrence of the refugee crisis. Moreover, the freedom of movement in the EU has led to relevant migration flows across EU Member States. At the same time, the EU has set itself the Europe 2020 headline target of reducing the share of early school leavers to 10 % within the EU. Early school leavers are generally disadvantaged socially and economically in later stages in life, so that it is important to better understand their motivations and provide adequate policy solutions. The European Commission (2016, p. 3) indicates that early school leavers are more likely to come from immigrant student groups, as their “early school leaving rates are nearly twice as high as for the native population†. Yet it also emphasises that there is still a lack of evidence pointing to the underlying reasons. In consequence, this study considers jointly these two groups, immigrant students and early school leavers. More specifically, we analyse the factors that are most strongly related to disparities in the probability to leave school early, putting special attention to immigrant status (by differentiating among first and second generation immigrants and, where possible, among EU and non-EU immigrants). To this end, we use OECD’s PISA data, which are the most widely employed data on international student assessment. However, early school leavers cannot directly be considered with these data, but it is possible to analyse educational expectations, including the expectation to dropout early from school. As the related literature emphasises, these expectations are very closely linked to actually realised educational career patterns. Therefore, we can use these expectations to gain insights on the factors influencing early school leaving. In addition, we also employ data from Eurostat to complement the picture on early school leavers and immigrants. We analyse the issues at stake in various ways. First, we provide a range of descriptive data on immigrants and expected early school leavers. Second, we run a number of two-level logit regression models, including a range of student- and school-level variables. In particular, we consider all (available) EU Member States together, before providing results for each MS individually. Finally, we also distinguish more specifically between EU and non-EU immigrants in our regression models. The results show that immigrant students do mostly not structurally differ in their expected early dropout probability to natives across Europe. In other words, the reasons why students expect to leave school early are the same for both immigrant students and natives. This finding implies that it is more important to focus on the specific factors that lead to expected early school leaving common to all students, than to concentrate only on specific immigrant-related factors to decrease the occurrence of expected early school leaving among immigrant students. In particular, our results suggest that the factors most strongly increasing the probability of early school leaving at the student level are the socio-economic background of students, epistemological beliefs and grade repetition, while we find that the most consistent factor is to be found at the school level, being the school’s expected early school leavers probability. The school-environment thus appears to play a key role in shaping educational expectations. Among the student-related factors, grade repetition is the most amenable by policy, so that grade repetition practices may be reconsidered by national policy makers.
    Keywords: Regions, Europe, PISA, education, skills, multilevel analysis
    Date: 2018–02
  38. By: Mara Faccio; John J. McConnell
    Abstract: Using police accident reports for Tippecanoe County, Indiana, and exploiting the introduction of the augmented reality game Pokémon GO as a natural experiment, we document a disproportionate increase in crashes and associated vehicular damage, injuries, and fatalities in the vicinity of locations where users can play the game while driving. We estimate the incremental county-wide cost of users playing Pokémon GO while driving to be in the range of $5.2 to $25.5 million over the 148 days following the introduction of the game. Extrapolating these estimates to nation-wide levels yields a total ranging from $2.0 to $7.3 billion.
    JEL: O33 R40
    Date: 2018–02
  39. By: Prichard, Wilson; Fish, Paul
    Abstract: The introduction of improved IT systems has long been hailed as a powerful – potentially transformative – tool for strengthening local property taxes. Yet in practice this promise has rarely been achieved on a sustainable basis in Africa, despite significant investment. The challenge lies in understanding why new IT systems have failed to deliver promised benefits, and in devising more effective systems and strategies moving forward.
    Keywords: Governance,
    Date: 2017
  40. By: Nkuku, Albert Malukisa; Titeca, Kristof
    Abstract: This paper analyses in detail the governance of urban markets in Kinshasa. By unpacking the complex relations of power which underpin these markets, the paper shows how informality is used as an instrument of accumulation by a variety of actors, which try to gain access to the revenue generated by the markets. Concretely, actors within and outside markets rely on a system called branchement, which refers to connections with higher-level authorities, allowing these actors to access their positions and revenue. Focusing on these connections, the paper draws the following main conclusions: first, market revenue is the site of an intense competition, in which particularly high-level political actors (with links to the Presidency) control revenue streams – rather than the Kinshasa provincial government (which has the legal right to do so). Second, these alliances are fragile and unstable: both changes at higher- as well as local-levels (i.e. the market) create a series of conflicts, in which actors try to re-affirm their position and access to revenue. Third, these connections rely on a variety of linkages – ethnicity, regional, clan – but particularly family- and financial linkages are important. Overall, the paper highlights the need and importance for analysing the informal vertical connections through which urban actors navigate their positions and income.
    Keywords: Kinshasa; market governance
    Date: 2018–02
  41. By: Laurent Simula (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alain Trannoy (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)
    Keywords: tax competition,top income earners,migration
    Date: 2018
  42. By: Izumi Yamasaki; Rubkwan Thurmanpornphilas; Miho Takizawa; Tomohiko Inui
    Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of evacuation status on labor market outcomes such as employment and earnings following the Great East Japan Earthquake by using annual microdata from the 2012 Employment Status Survey in Japan. This is the first research that comprehensively examines the effect of evacuation status on labor market performance for evacuees of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The evacuation status categories are (1) evacuated and still away from home, (2) evacuated and moved to another place, (3) evacuated and already returned home, and (4) did not evacuate. We applied a probit model to estimate unemployment and an ordinary least squares regression to estimate earnings. To estimate unemployment and earnings, we also used propensity score matching to control for selection into evacuation status on observable characteristics. After controlling for selection into evacuation categories on observable characteristics, our findings show that those still away from home and those who moved tend to have the worst labor market performance in terms of probability of unemployment and annual earnings. The estimates suggest that we need a specific employment support for those who evacuated especially for those who are still away from home and those who moved to another place.
  43. By: Pietro Battiston (University of Milan-Bicocca); Simona Gamba (University of Verona); Matteo Rizzolli (LUMSA University); Valentina Rotondi (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: Do people cheat more if it helps their team? Does this behavior change when their actions are disclosed to their peers? To answer these questions, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment with girl scouts and boy scouts during their summer camps. Scout troops are organized in patrols: these are thus naturally occurring and persistent teams, which undertake many different activities and own common goods; moreover, loyalty is salient. We implement a variation of a standard cheating task, in which cheating behavior by an individual scout could i) either be kept private or disclosed to other members of their patrol; and ii) imply the release of an individual voucher to be spent on individual goods or a team voucher to be spent on collective goods for the patrol. While we find a very low overall level of cheating, our results show that people cheat more frequently when their decision is disclosed to their team and not kept private. On the other hand, no significant difference is observed when cheating rewards the team rather than the individual.
    Keywords: Lying; deception; cheating; public scrutiny; social image; adolescents; children; scouts; loyalty; experiments; behavioral economics
    JEL: C90 D91
    Date: 2018–02
  44. By: Chiara Burlina
    Abstract: This study investigates a particular type of network, the inter-firm network (IFN), and its impact on performances of Italian firms between 2010-2015. After revising the literature on alliances and networks for what concerns the geographical and industrial dimension, I focus my attention on networks’ performance and innovation propensity. The empirical analysis, based on a sample of about 4,000 firms, is divided in two parts: firstly, applying a “differencein- difference” technique, is tested the impact of being in an IFN; secondly, focusing on year 2013, are measured the different effects of IFN characteristics. Results demonstrate that belonging to an IFN has a positive impact on firms’ growth. Moreover, industry heterogeneity of members and internationalisation scope (rather than innovation) turn out to be the main factors increasing firm’s profitability and economic growth.
    Keywords: Inter-firm network, Alliances, Performance, Difference-in-Difference, Innovation.
    JEL: C3 L25 P25 R12
    Date: 2018–01
  45. By: Pietro Moncada-Paterno-Castello (European Commission - JRC); Alex Coad (CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Perú); Antonio Vezzani (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: - EU R&D and innovation performance largely depends on industrial specialisation. - The EU needs a long-term strategy to foster industrial competitiveness. - A framework for designing a new transformative industry & innovation policy is proposed.
    Keywords: R&I, Innovation Policy, Industrial Policy, Innovation.
    Date: 2018–02
  46. By: Prichard, Wilson
    Abstract: In practical terms most property tax reforms are, first and foremost, efforts to increase tax revenue. But the ultimate goal of tax reform is, of course, broader: expanding tax revenue in order to finance the provision of valuable publicly-provided goods and services. Tax reform is only socially desirable if tax revenue is, in fact, translated into improved public outcomes. Otherwise taxation amounts to little more than the extraction of revenue from taxpayers. Tax reformers are correspondingly faced with a simple question: is the revenue from tax reform actually likely to be translated into publicly-provided goods and services? Perhaps more importantly, could property tax reform programmes be designed explicitly to increase the likelihood that revenue will be translated into valued publicly-provided goods and services? Rather than only raising more revenue, tax reformers may have the power to proactively shape the quality of public spending.
    Keywords: Governance,
    Date: 2017
  47. By: Feld, Lars P.; Schaltegger, Christoph A.; Studerus, Janine
    Abstract: This paper analyses the importance of fiscal mechanisms for regional risk sharing and redistribution in Switzerland. Switzerland is a particularly interesting setting in this context because it features both a high level of fiscal autonomy for Swiss cantons and explicit fiscal transfers between the federal government and the cantons. Based on panel-data analysis we study the redistributive and stabilizing properties of fiscal equalization transfers, federal government transfers in general, direct federal taxation, the unemployment insurance scheme and the first pillar pension scheme. We find a combined redistributive effect of these mechanisms of about 20%. This means that long-run income differentials of 1 Swiss Franc between cantons translate into differences of long-run disposable income after taxes and transfers of about 80 cents. The combined contemporary stabilization effect with respect to short-term income fluctuations amounts to less than 10%, which is a small effect compared to previous findings for other countries.
    Date: 2018
  48. By: Bernd (B.) Heidergott (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands); Jia-Ping Huang (Shenzhen University, China); Ines (I.) Lindner (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: We study social learning in a social network setting where agents receive independent noisy signals about the truth. Agents naïvely update beliefs by repeatedly taking weighted averages of neighbors' opinions. The weights are fixed in the sense of representing average frequency and intensity of social interaction. However, the way people communicate is random such that agents do not update their belief in exactly the same way at every point in time. We show that even if the social network does not privilege any agent in terms of influence, a large society almost always fails to converge to the truth. We conclude that wisdom of crowds is an illusive concept and bares the danger of mistaking consensus for truth.
    Keywords: Wisdom of crowds; social networks; information cascades; naive learning
    JEL: D83 D85 C63
    Date: 2018–02–28
  49. By: Johanna Lacoe; Stephen Lipscomb; Joshua Haimson
    Abstract: This fact sheet from the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012 (NLTS 2012) presents new information on trends in the characteristics and experiences of youth in special education across the country.
    Keywords: special education, IEP, IDEA
    JEL: I J
  50. By: Paul Maarek; Elliot Moiteaux (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: Since 1980, labor markets became increasingly polarized: occupations in the middle of the wage distribution (routine occupations) tend to disappear, and are replaced by low-wage occupations (man- ual occupations) and high-wage occupations (abstract occupations). In the US exible labor market, the decrease of routine occupations has been compensated by massive creation of low-paying occupa- tions, and polarization only had a very limited impact on employment levels. This is not necessarily the case in rigid wage European countries in which the creation of such low-paying jobs is more dif- cult, given the institutional environment. We study the e ect of the reduction of the proportion of routine jobs on the employment rate and the participation rate, conditionally on the value of the min- imum wage, using local labor markets from the European Union Labor Force Survey on 8 countries which have a national minimum wage. Our OLS and IV estimates indicate that the disappearance of routine jobs has a negative impact on labor market outcomes in high-minimum wage countries due to an insucient creation of low-paid occupations. Impact on participation is positive for low minimum wage countries, as labor supply may increase in order to compensate the deterioration of labor market opportunities.
    Keywords: Polarization, employment, participation, minimum wage, ICT, routine occupations.
    JEL: J23 J24 J38
    Date: 2018
  51. By: Matthew D. Baird; Moshe Buchinsky; Veronica Sovero
    Abstract: This paper examines differences in STEM retention between minority and non-minority undergraduate students. To do so, we use detailed student records of a student's courses, grades, and current major for every term the student was enrolled in a large public university. To examine the role of ability in the switching decision and timing, we estimate STEM and non-STEM ability, and then compare the joint distribution of students who switch out of STEM versus STEM stayers. Students with relatively greater non-STEM ability are more likely to switch out of STEM, but ability cannot completely account for the differences in switching patterns for Hispanic and Black students. In fact, Black and Hispanic students are more likely to persist in STEM after ability is taken into account. We also find evidence of switching behavior that appears motivated by a preference for graduation within four years.
    Date: 2016–11

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