nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2018‒02‒05
fifty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices By Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa
  2. Voting and Peer Effects: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique By Fafchamps, Marcel; Vaz, Ana; Vicente, Pedro C
  3. Of Cities and Slums By Alexander Monge-Naranjo; Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira; Luciene Torres de Mello Pereira
  4. How does childhood obesity affect school achievement? Contributions from a qualitative analysis implemented in Mexico City. By Pierre Levasseur; Luis Ortiz-Hernandez
  5. The Effect of House Price Changes on Cohort Consumption in Turkey By Evren Ceritoglu
  6. Anonymity of distance? Job search and labour market exclusion in a growing African city By Abebe, Girum; Caria, Stefano; Fafchamps, Marcel; Falco, Paolo; Franklin, Simon; Quinn, Simon
  7. The persistence of local joblessness By Amior, Michael; Manning, Alan
  8. Do School Spending Cuts Matter? Evidence from the Great Recession By C. Kirabo Jackson; Cora Wigger; Heyu Xiong
  9. Redefault Risk in the Aftermath of the Mortgage Crisis: Why Did Modifications Improve More Than Self-Cures? By Calem, Paul S.; Jagtiani, Julapa; Maingi, Ramain Quinn; Abell, David
  10. Sources of productivity differentials in manufacturing in post-transition urban South-East Europe By Katarina Bacic; Ivana Rasic Bakaric; Suncana Slijepcevic
  11. Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects By Komla Mawulom Agudze; Monica Billio; Roberto Casarin; Francesco Ravazzolo
  12. Mortgage Supply and Housing Rents By Gete, Pedro; reher, Michael
  13. Planning ahead for better neighborhoods: long run evidence from Tanzania By Michaels, Guy; Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya; Rauch, Ferdinand; Regan, Tanner; Baruah, Neeraj; Dahlstrand-Rudin, Amanda
  14. How do primary and secondary teachers compare? By OECD
  15. Simple Tests for Social Interaction Models with Network Structures By Dogan, Osman; Taspinar, Suleyman; Bera, Anil K.
  16. Sustainable urban development in India: a tale of two Mahindra World Cities By Kattumuri, Ruth; Kurian, Sunil
  17. The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: evidence from UK’s Single Regeneration Budget By Gibbons, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.; Sarvimäki, Matti
  18. Parents, Siblings and Schoolmates: The Effects of Family-School Interactions on Educational Achievement and Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes By Bertoni, Marco; Brunello, Giorgio; Cappellari, Lorenzo
  19. Towards urban growth analytics for Yangon: a comparative information base for strategic spatial development By Heeckt, Catarina; Gomes, Alexandra; Ney, David; Phanthuwongpakdee, Nuttavikhom; Sabrié, Marion
  20. Goals and Gaps: Educational Careers of Immigrant Children By Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana; Pinotti, Paolo
  21. Is there a housing bubble in China By Tianhao Zhi; Zhongfei Li; Zhiqiang Jiang; Lijian Wei; Didier Sornette
  22. So near and yet so far: Marseille youth attitudes towards democratised institutions of culture By Elena Raevskikh; Maxime Jaffré; Emmanuel Pedler
  23. Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market By Adelino, Manuel; Gerardi, Kristopher
  24. Resolving a Non-Performing Loan crisis: The ongoing case of the Irish mortgage market By McCann, Fergal
  25. Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation By Bell, Alex; Chetty, Raj; Jaravel, Xavier; Petkova, Neviana; Van Reenen, John
  26. The Impact of Proximity on Resistance to Foreign Ventures: The Cases of India and Japan By Marie-Laure Baron; Claire Capo
  27. The Short-Run Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform By Marco Caliendo; Alexandra Fedorets; Malte Preuss; Carsten Schröder; Linda Wittbrodt
  28. The Native-Migrant Gap in the Progression into and through Upper-Secondary Education By Wolter, Stefan C.; Zumbühl, Maria
  29. Where Are Migrants From? Inter- vs. Intra-Provincial Rural-Urban Migration in China By Yaqin Su; Petros Tesfazion; Zhong Zhao
  30. Do speed cameras save lives? By Tang, Cheng Keat
  31. Does Class Size Matter for School Tracking Outcomes after Elementary School? Quasi-Experimental Evidence Using Administrative Panel Data from Germany By Argaw, Bethlehem A.; Puhani, Patrick A.
  32. The effects of minimum wages on the labor market and income distribution in Kenya: A CGE analysis By Tabitha Mwangi,; Florence Nelima Simiyu; Lulit Mitik Beyene; Albert Onderi
  33. Housing allowance and rents: evidence from a Stepwise Subsidy Scheme By Eerola, Essi; Lyytikainen, Teemu
  34. Energy efficiency as an instrument of regional development policy? Trading-off the benefits of an economic stimulus and energy rebound effects By Gioele Figus; Patrizio Lecca; Peter McGregor; Karen Turner
  35. Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: The Effects of Physical, Social and Financial Infrastructure Investments By Hulya Saygili; K. Azim Ozdemir
  36. Real-Estate Agent Commission Structure and Sales Performance By Gautier, Pieter A.; Siegmann, Arjen; van Vuuren, Aico
  37. The Freight Landscape: Convergence and Divergence in Urban Freight Distribution By Jean Paul Rodrigue; Laetitia Dablanc; Genevieve Giuliano
  38. Countercyclical school attainment and intergenerational mobility By ARENAS, Andreu,; MALGOUYRES, Clément,
  39. Social tenants’ health: evaluating the effectiveness of landlord interventions By Cheshire, Paul; Gibbons, Stephen; Mouland, Jemma
  40. Amenities and Geography of Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Cities By Zhang, Min; Partridge, Mark; Song, Huasheng
  41. Resource urbanisms: Asia’s divergent city models of Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Hong Kong By Rode, Philipp; Gomes, Alexandra; Adeel, Muhammad; Sajjad, Fizzah; McArthur, Jenny; Alshalfan, Sharifa; Schwinger, Peter; Tunas, Devisari; Lange, Christiane; Montagne, Clemence; Hertog, Steffen; Koch, Andreas; Murshed, Syed Monjur; Wendel, Jochen; Duval, Alice
  42. Using ground transportation for aviation system disruption alleviation By Lynnette Dray; Isabelle Laplace; Aude Marzuoli; Eric Féron; Antony Evans
  43. Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) By Peter B. Dixon; Michael Jerie; Maureen T. Rimmer; Glyn Wittwer
  44. Clustering, Growth, and Inequality in China By Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Cheng-Gang; Yang, Xiyi
  45. Geography and Employer Recruiting By Weinstein, Russell
  46. Communication Costs and the Internal Organization of Multi-Plant Businesses: Evidence from the Impact of the French High-Speed Rail By Charnoz, Pauline; Lelarge, Claire; Trevien, Corentin
  47. Modeling the residential electricity demand in the US By Afees A. Salisu; Oluwatomisinn Oyewole; Lateef O. Akanni
  48. The Introduction of Tasers and Police Use of Force: Evidence from the Chicago Police Department By Bocar Ba; Jeffrey Grogger
  49. Regional income inequality in France : what does history teach us? By Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa; Díez Minguela, Alfonso
  50. Business cycle patterns in European regions By Gomez-Loscos, Ana; Gadea, M. Dolores; Bandres, Eduardo
  51. The Effects of Supply Shocks in the Market for Apprenticeships: Evidence from a German High School Reform By Mühlemann, Samuel; Pfann, Gerard A.; Pfeifer, Harald; Dietrich, Hans
  52. Regional Disparity and Decentralization in Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis By Wasim, Summerina; Munir, Kashif
  53. Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia By Abebe, Girum; Caria, Stefano; Fafchamps, Marcel; Falco, Paolo; Franklin, Simon; Quinn, Simon; Shilpi, Forhad
  54. Preschool Attendance, School Progression, and Cognitive Skills in East Africa By Bietenbeck, Jan; Ericsson, Sanna; Wamalwa, Fredrick M.
  55. The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration By David Lagakos; Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael Waugh
  56. Regional Growth Paths: From Structure to Agency and Back By Grillitsch, Markus; Sotarauta, Markku

  1. By: Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa
    Abstract: An inflow of immigrants into a region impacts house prices in three ways. For a fixed level of local population, housing demand rises due to the increase in foreign-born population. In addition, immigrants can influence native location decisions and induce additional shifts in demand. Finally, changes in housing supply conditions can in turn affect prices. Existing reduced form estimates of the effect of immigration on house prices capture the sum of all these effects. In this paper, I propose a methodology to identify the different channels driving the total effect. I show that, conditional on supply, total changes in housing demand can be decomposed into the sum of direct immigrant demand and indirect demand changes from relocated population. The size and sign of the indirect demand effect depends on the impact of immigration on native mobility. I use Spanish data during the period 2001- 2012 to estimate the different elements of the decomposition, applying an instrumental variables strategy to obtain consistent coefficients. The results show that overlooking the impact of immigration on native location induces a sizeable difference between the total and the immigrant demand effects, affecting the interpretation of the estimates
    Keywords: immigration; housing; Spain; instrumental variables
    JEL: J61 R12 R21
    Date: 2017–09–01
  2. By: Fafchamps, Marcel; Vaz, Ana; Vicente, Pedro C
    Abstract: Voter education campaigns often aim to increase voter participation and political accountability. Randomized interventions were implemented nationwide during the 2009 Mozambican elections using leaflets, text messaging, and a free newspaper. We study the local peer effecs triggered by the campaign. We investigate whether treatment effects are transmitted through social networks and geographical proximity at the village level. For individuals personally targeted by the campaign, we estimate the reinforcement effect of proximity to other individuals in our sample. For untargeted individuals, we estimate how the campaign diffuses as a function of proximity to others in the sample. We find evidence for both effects, similar across treatments and proximity measures. The campaign raises the level of interest in the election through networks, in line with the average treatment effect. However, we find a negative network effect of the treatment on voter participation, implying that the positive effect of treatment on more central individuals is smaller. We interpret this result as consistent with free-riding through pivotal reasoning and we provide additional evidence to support this claim.
    Date: 2018–01
  3. By: Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (EPGE/FGV, Rio de Janeiro); Luciene Torres de Mello Pereira (EPGE/FGV, Rio de Janeiro)
    Abstract: The emergence of slums is a frequent feature of a country's path toward urbanization, structural transformation, and development. Based on salient micro and macro evidence from Brazilian labor, housing, and education markets, we construct a simple dynamic model to examine the conditions for slums to emerge. We use the model to determine whether slums are barriers or stepping-stones for the ascension of low-skilled households and the development of the country as a whole, exploring the dynamic interaction of slums, housing costs and sectoral productivities with the human capital formation and structural transformation of a country. We calibrate our model to Brazilian data, and use it to conduct counterfactual experiments. We find that cracking down on slums could slow down the acquisition of human capital in the low-end of the skill distribution, the growth of cities proper (outside slums) and induce even larger slums in the future. We find that the impact of housing costs in the city depends crucially on the human capital distribution of the country. Finally, procuring slum-dwelling children some access to schools in the city would eventually lead to larger cities and smaller slums.
    Keywords: urbanization, Housing, human capital, skill development
    JEL: O15 O18 R23 R31
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Pierre Levasseur; Luis Ortiz-Hernandez
    Abstract: In order to better understand the negative causal relationships between childhood obesity and school achievement, we implement a qualitative analysis based on 29 adolescents interviewed in Mexico City. Our findings suggest the following. First, childhood obesity affects schooling outcomes through two interdependent channels: social stigmatization and loss of productivity. Second, three main mechanisms seem to be involved in the relationship. While the loss of productivity alone represents one of such mechanism, the social stigmatization of obesity passes through two mechanisms: (i) a direct social mechanism, including material aggressions and exclusion by peers, and (ii) an indirect social mechanism, referring to psycho-sociological troubles that stigmatized people express. Third, the risk of weight discrimination depends on different individual factors: age, gender, fat distribution and body-mass category.
    Keywords: Mexico; childhood obesity; school achievement; loss of productivity; social stigmatization; qualitative analysis
    JEL: I15
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Evren Ceritoglu
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between house prices and household consumption in Turkey. We utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2014. We construct a pseudo-panel data set using birth-year cohorts following Deaton (1985). We find that house price changes have a positive and significant effect on the growth of cohort consumption. Moreover, the effect of house price changes is stronger for home-owners and it intensifies as we move from young cohorts to old cohorts. We observe that there is a marginally significant and relatively weak relationship between the growth of cohort consumption and house price changes for tenants. However, our pooled sample set is restricted to young and middle-aged cohorts for tenants. In addition, we find that the rise of home-ownership ratio increases the growth of cohort consumption, while the spread of having outstanding housing debt depresses the growth of cohort consumption. Therefore, our empirical findings are in favor of the wealth channel argument.
    Keywords: House prices, Cohort consumption, Birth-year cohorts, Pseudo-panel
    JEL: C23 D12 R21
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Abebe, Girum; Caria, Stefano; Fafchamps, Marcel; Falco, Paolo; Franklin, Simon; Quinn, Simon
    Abstract: Do obstacles to job search contribute to labour market exclusion in developing countries? To answer this question, we contrast two very different interventions, designed to alleviate spatial and informational constraints for unemployed youth in a congested African city: a transport subsidy and a job-application workshop. Both treatments have large positive effects on the probability of finding stable and formal jobs. Neither treatment has a significant average effect on the overall probability of employment, but we detect a sizeable increase in earnings and employment rates among the most disadvantaged job-seekers. Our results highlight the importance of job-search constraints as mechanisms for exclusion of the most disadvantaged. They also show that, if targeted well, low-cost interventions can have large impacts, improving equity in the labour market
    JEL: J22 J61 J64 M53 O18
    Date: 2017–10–01
  7. By: Amior, Michael; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: Differences in employment-population ratios across US commut- ing zones have persisted for many decades. We claim these dispar- ities represent real gaps in economic opportunity for individuals of fxed characteristics. These gaps persist despite a strong migratory response, and we attribute this to high persistence in labor demand shocks. These trends generate a \race" between local employment and population: population always lags behind employment, yield- ing persistent deviations in employment rates. Methodologically, we argue the employment rate can serve as a sufficient statistic for local well-being; and we model population and employment dy- namics using an error correction mechanism, which explicitly al- lows for disequilibrium
    JEL: J21 J23 J61 J64 R23
    Date: 2017–12–20
  8. By: C. Kirabo Jackson; Cora Wigger; Heyu Xiong
    Abstract: Audits of public school budgets routinely find evidence of waste. Also, recent evidence finds that when school budgets are strained, public schools can employ cost-saving measures with no ill-effect on students. We theorize that if budget cuts induce schools to eliminate wasteful spending, the effects of spending cuts may be small (and even zero). To explore this empirically, we examine how student performance responded to school spending cuts induced by the Great Recession. We link nationally representative test score and survey data to school spending data and isolate variation in recessionary spending cuts that were unrelated to changes in economic conditions. Consistent with the theory, districts that faced large revenue cuts disproportionately reduced spending on non-core operations. However, they still reduced core operational spending to some extent. A 10 percent school spending cut reduced test scores by about 7.8 percent of a standard deviation. Moreover, a 10 percent spending reduction during all four high-school years was associated with 2.6 percentage points lower graduation rates. While our estimates are smaller than some in the literature, spending cuts do matter.
    JEL: H0 H61 I2 I20 J0
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Calem, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Jagtiani, Julapa (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Maingi, Ramain Quinn (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Abell, David (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in the redefault rate of mortgages that were selected for modification during 2008–2011, compared with that of similarly situated self-cured mortgages during the same period. We find that while the performance of both modified and self-cured loans improved dramatically over this period, the decline in the redefault rate for modified loans was substantially larger, and we attribute this difference to a few key factors. First, the modification terms regarding repayments have become increasingly more generous, including more principal reduction, resulting in greater financial relief to the borrowers. Second, modifications in later vintages also benefited from improving economic conditions. Modifications became more effective as unemployment rates declined and home prices recovered. Third, we find that the difference between redefault rate improvement between modified loans and self-cured loans continue to persist even after controlling for all the relevant risk and economic factors. We attribute this difference to the servicers’ learning process — such as data collection and information sharing among industry participants — known as “learning-by doing.” Early in the mortgage crisis, many servicers had limited experience selecting the best borrowers for modification. As modification activity increased, lenders became more adept at screening borrowers for modification eligibility and in selecting appropriate modification terms. Our empirical findings suggest that mortgage modification effectiveness could be enhanced through the industry’s “learning-by-doing” process.
    Keywords: mortgage modification; mortgage default; mortgage servicing
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2018–01–22
  10. By: Katarina Bacic (Knowledge Network Ltd.); Ivana Rasic Bakaric (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Suncana Slijepcevic (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the effects of urbanization and localisation economies on manufacturing firms’ productivity across urban landscapes in post-transition South-East European (SEE) countries. Fixed-effects panel data estimations on a large sample of firms show that the factors accounting for productivity advantages of manufacturing firms in urban post-transition SEE are related to the firms and to the environment in which these firms operate. Firms located in diversified cities benefit from a productivity premium generated in this type of agglomeration, while no evidence was found that the relative specialization across industries has any effect on firm productivity levels.
    Keywords: city, manufacturing, total factor productivity, post-transition South-East Europe
    JEL: D24 R00 R12
    Date: 2017–11
  11. By: Komla Mawulom Agudze; Monica Billio; Roberto Casarin; Francesco Ravazzolo
    Abstract: The paper introduces a new dynamic panel model for large data sets of time series, each of them characterized by a series-specific Markov switching process. By introducing a neighbourhood system based on a network structure, the model accounts for local and global interactions among the switching processes. We develop an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for the posterior approximation based on the Metropolis adjusted Langevin sampling method. We study efficiency and convergence of the proposed MCMC algorithm through several simulation experiments. In the empirical application, we deal with US states coincident indices, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and find evidence that local interactions of state-level cycles with geographically and economically networks play a substantial role in the common movements of US regional business cycles.
    Keywords: Bayesian inference, interacting Markov chains, Metropolis adjusted Langevin, panel Markov-switching.
    Date: 2018–01
  12. By: Gete, Pedro; reher, Michael
    Abstract: We show that a contraction of mortgage supply after the Great Recession has increased housing rents. Our empirical strategy exploits heterogeneity in MSAs' exposure to regulatory shocks experienced by lenders over the 2010-2014 period. Tighter lending standards have increased demand for rental housing and have led to higher rents, depressed homeownership rates and an increase in rental supply. Absent the credit supply contraction, annual rent growth would have been 2.1 percentage points lower over 2010-2014 in MSAs where lending standards rose from their 2008 levels.
    Keywords: Credit Supply, Homeownership, Mortgage Markets, Regulation, Rents.
    JEL: E31 E32 E65 G2 G20 G21 G28 G29 R3 R31 R39
    Date: 2017–11
  13. By: Michaels, Guy; Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya; Rauch, Ferdinand; Regan, Tanner; Baruah, Neeraj; Dahlstrand-Rudin, Amanda
    Abstract: What are the long run consequences of planning and providing basic infrastructure in neighborhoods, where people build their own homes? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during the 1970s and 1980s, half of which provided infrastructure in previously unpopulated areas (de novo neighborhoods), while the other half upgraded squatter settlements. Using satellite images and surveys from the 2010s, we find that de novo neighborhoods developed better housing than adjacent residential areas (control areas) that were also initially unpopulated. Specifically, de novo neighborhood are more orderly and their buildings have larger footprint areas and are more likely to have multiple stories, as well as connections to electricity and water, basic sanitation and access to roads. And though de novo neighborhoods generally attracted better educated residents than control areas, the educational difference is too small to account for the large difference in residential quality that we find. While we have no natural counterfactual for the upgrading areas, descriptive evidence suggests that they are if anything worse than the control areas
    Keywords: urban economics; economic development; slums; Africa
    JEL: O18 R14 R31
    Date: 2017–09–01
  14. By: OECD
    Abstract: While policy debate is often focused on the whole teaching profession, primary and secondary teachers differ in more ways than one. While all countries require teachers to have at least a bachelor degree to enter the profession in primary or lower secondary education, the structure and content of the programmes vary and are less geared towards practice at secondary than primary level. Primary school teachers spend on average 10% more of their working time teaching, though their class size will be slightly smaller. Finally, primary teachers’ salaries are less competitive than their lower secondary peers in more than half of the countries. Improving the attractiveness and effectiveness of the teaching profession can only be addressed by recognising these differences and adapting a differentiated policy to address the challenges of each.
    Date: 2018–02–01
  15. By: Dogan, Osman; Taspinar, Suleyman; Bera, Anil K.
    Abstract: We consider an extended spatial autoregressive model that can incorporate possible endogenous interactions, exogenous interactions, unobserved group fixed effects and correlation of unobservables. In the generalized method of moments (GMM) and the maximum likelihood (ML) frameworks, we introduce simple gradient based tests that can be used to test the presence of endogenous effects, the correlation of unobservables and the contextual effects. We show the asymptotic distributions of tests, and formulate robust tests that have central chi-square distributions under both the null and local misspecification. The proposed tests are easy to compute and only require the estimates from a transformed linear regression model. We carry out an extensive Monte Carlo study to investigate the size and power properties of the proposed tests. Our results show that the proposed tests have good finite sample properties and are useful for testing the presence of endogenous effects, correlation of unobservables and contextual effects in a social interaction model.
    Keywords: Social interactions, Endogenous effects, Spatial dependence, GMM inference, LM tests, Robust LM test, Local misspecification.
    JEL: C13 C21 C31
    Date: 2017–08–17
  16. By: Kattumuri, Ruth; Kurian, Sunil
    Abstract: About fourteen percent of the total world population lives in India. Approximately 350 million people live in urban and peri-urban areas. With the country’s urbanization rate currently being 2.5 per year, it is estimated that around 600 million people will be living in towns and cities by 2030. Developing sustainable urban conglomerations is a key priority for India’s growth and development. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) launched in December 2005, Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) launched in June 2015, Smart Cities Mission launched in 2015 are all evidence of the government’s active engagement toward economic and social development of cities in India. There is growing awareness of the great potential that exists in business development models that are environmentally sustainable. Additionally, following a low-carbon development path with help toward achieving various Sustainable Development Goals including #3 (good health and wellbeing), #6 (clean water and sanitation), #7 (affordable and clean energy), #9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure) and #11 (sustainable cities and communities)...
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–09
  17. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.; Sarvimäki, Matti
    Abstract: We study the local economic impacts of a major regeneration programme aimed at enhancing the quality of life of local people in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. The analysis is based on a panel of firm and area level data available at small spatial scales. Our identification strategies involve: a) exploiting the fine spatial scale of our data to study how effects vary with distance to the intervention area; and b) comparing places close to treatment in early rounds of the programme with places close to treatment in future rounds. We consider the long run impact of schemes funded between 1995 and 1997 on outcomes up to 2009. Our estimates suggest that the programme increased workplace employment in the intervention area but this had no impact on the employment rates of local residents.
    Keywords: single regeneration budget; regeneration; employment; neighbourhoods; urban policy
    JEL: H50 J08 R11
    Date: 2017–08–01
  18. By: Bertoni, Marco (University of Padova); Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: We use Danish register data to investigate whether the effects of schoolmates' gender and average parental education on individual educational achievement, employment and earnings vary with individual family characteristics such as the gender of siblings and own parental education. We find that boys with sisters have worse employment prospects than boys with no sisters when exposed to a higher share of girls at school. The opposite is true for girls who have sisters. We also show that the benefits from exposure to "privileged" peers accrue mainly to "disadvantaged" students. These benefits decline when the dispersion of parental education increases. Overall, the size of the estimated effects is small.
    Keywords: education peer effects, gender, parental background, human capital production, long term outcomes
    JEL: I21 J16 J24
    Date: 2017–12
  19. By: Heeckt, Catarina; Gomes, Alexandra; Ney, David; Phanthuwongpakdee, Nuttavikhom; Sabrié, Marion
    Abstract: Cities around the world face the challenge of understanding why, how and where they are growing; an understanding that is crucial if they are to realise opportunities to steer this growth in ways that promote sustainable and equitable urban development. Being able to measure, visualise and analyse these often complex patterns of growth is essential to effective policy design and implementation. It is within this context that the IGC Myanmar office has collaborated with LSE Cities on this first step towards developing a more in-depth research programme on urban development in Yangon. It has resulted in the creation of a comparative information base that will provide a strong empirical foundation for subsequent analytics and policy research. This will in turn inform strategic spatial development in the Yangon metropolitan region in the future. Over the past decade, LSE Cities has developed a research methodology known as Urban Growth Analytics that provides a framework for this type of data-driven policy analysis. Urban Growth Analytics is based on the collection, visualisation and comparative analysis of critical urban development data, assessing two or more cities across a range of pre-defined indicators. A primary focus is on land use and infrastructure as proxies for various interrelated urban systems. In addition, and depending on data availability, socio-economic and environmental data as well as transport and mobility patterns are analysed to deepen the understanding of the relationship between spatial and social development patterns...
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–02
  20. By: Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana; Pinotti, Paolo
    Abstract: We study the educational choices of children of immigrants in a tracked school system. We first show that immigrant boys in Italy enroll disproportionately into vocational high schools, as opposed to technical and academically-oriented high schools, compared to natives of similar ability. Immigrant girls, instead, choose similar schools as native ones. We then estimate the impact of a large-scale, randomized intervention providing tutoring and career counseling to high-ability immigrant students. Male treated students increase their probability of enrolling into the high track to the same level of natives, also closing the gap in terms of grade retention. There are no significant effects on immigrant females, who exhibit similar choices and performance as native ones in absence of the intervention. Increases in academic motivation and the resulting changes in teachers' recommendation regarding high school choice explain a sizable portion of the effect, while the effect of increases in cognitive skills is negligible. Finally, we find positive spillovers on immigrant classmates of treated students, while there is no effect on native classmates.
    Keywords: aspirations; career choice; immigrants; mentoring; tracking
    JEL: I24 J15
    Date: 2017–12
  21. By: Tianhao Zhi (SYU); Zhongfei Li (SYU); Zhiqiang Jiang (ECUST); Lijian Wei (SYU); Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying a standard Engle-Granger cointegration test. Second, we apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We propose that, given the heterogeneity that exists amongst cities with different types of bubble signatures, it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics, rather than enforcing one-that-fits-for-all type policy that does not take into account such heterogeneity.
    Date: 2018–01
  22. By: Elena Raevskikh (CNELIAS - Centre Norbert Elias - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UAPV - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Maxime Jaffré (CNELIAS - Centre Norbert Elias - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UAPV - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Emmanuel Pedler (CNELIAS - Centre Norbert Elias - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UAPV - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)
    Abstract: This paper examines how young people in Marseille perceive democratised cultural institutions that seek to get in tune with their expectations and cultural preferences, and explores the interplay between the political vision of the city's peripheral neighbourhoods and the aspirational pursuits of its inhabitants. European policies encourage young people to be active citizens and participate in society in order to ensure their involvement in the European democratic processes. As culture strengthens local communities and forges a sense of identity and belonging to the larger community of Europe, contemporary forms of cultural consumption are conceived to stimulate integration and mobility and also create a legitimate and transnational ideal young European citizen type. However, cultural struggles and identity conflicts emerging in Europe, particularly in the current context of increasing immigration issues, raise new challenges for inclusive cultural policies. The statistical and ethnographical analysis of interactions between the National Scene – Theater of Le Merlan and young people from the nearby Grand Saint-Barthélémy urban area, typically associated with immigration, drug dealers and crime, identifies a weak impact of national and European inclusive policies on young audiences. This article highlights three main research results: 1) top-down state and European inclusive cultural policies contribute, paradoxically, to the progressive estrangement of targeted populations (especially young, poor and immigrant audiences) from democratised institutions of culture; 2) the immediate proximity of cultural institutions is relatively unimportant for populations. Regular theatre audiences can easily reach peripheral districts to participate in new cultural offerings, while populations poorly integrated into cultural life are not attracted even by nearby cultural offerings, despite their spatial proximity; 3) the general assumption of centralisation and gentrification of Theater of Le Merlan's audiences
    Keywords: cultural institutions, youth inclusion, European policies, urban geography, cultural policies
    Date: 2017
  23. By: Adelino, Manuel; Gerardi, Kristopher
    Abstract: A central result in the theory of adverse selection in asset markets is that informed sellers can signal quality and obtain higher prices by delaying trade. This paper provides some of the first evidence of a signaling mechanism through trade delays using the residential mortgage market as a laboratory. We find a strong relationship between mortgage performance and time to sale for privately securitized mortgages. Additionally, deals made up of more seasoned mortgages are sold at lower yields. These effects are strongest in the "Alt-A" segment of the market, where mortgages are often sold with incomplete hard information, and in cases where the originator and the issuer of mortgage-backed securities are not affliated.
    Date: 2018–01
  24. By: McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: The Irish banking system has in recent years experienced a large build-up in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) during the crisis followed by a sharp reduction in the 2013-2017 period. In this article I present a recent history of the ongoing resolution of the mortgage arrears crisis in Ireland. Using a large and close to exhaustive panel data set of Irish mortgages from 2008 to 2016, I present a number of new findings on loan transitions between delinquency states, the importance of legacy effects of the crisis in explaining recent entry to arrears, the role of mortgage modification in the reduction in arrears balances, the extent of borrower-lender engagement and the financial vulnerability that remains in pockets of the Irish mortgage market.
    Keywords: Mortgages; Non-Performing Loans, Mortgage Modification; Borrower Engagement; Loan Transitions
    Date: 2017–12
  25. By: Bell, Alex; Chetty, Raj; Jaravel, Xavier; Petkova, Neviana; Van Reenen, John
    Abstract: We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in America by using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records. We establish three sets of results. First, children from high-income (top 1%) families are ten times as likely to become inventors as those from below-median income families. There are similarly large gaps by race and gender. Differences in innate ability, as measured by test scores in early childhood, explain relatively little of these gaps. Second, exposure to innovation during childhood has significant causal effects on children's propensities to become inventors. Growing up in a neighborhood or family with a high innovation rate in a specific technology class leads to a higher probability of patenting in exactly the same technology class. These exposure effects are gender-specific: girls are more likely to become inventors in a particular technology class if they grow up in an area with more female inventors in that technology class. Third, the financial returns to inventions are extremely skewed and highly correlated with their scientific impact, as measured by citations. Consistent with the importance of exposure effects and contrary to standard models of career selection, women and disadvantaged youth are as under-represented among high-impact inventors as they are among inventors as a whole. We develop a simple model of inventors' careers that matches these empirical results. The model implies that increasing exposure to innovation in childhood may have larger impacts on innovation than increasing the financial incentives to innovate, for instance by reducing tax rates. In particular, there are many "lost Einsteins" - individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation.
    Date: 2017–12
  26. By: Marie-Laure Baron (NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - URN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Claire Capo (NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - URN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)
    Abstract: Over the years, a body of literature has developed that consistently shows how the liability of foreignness affects MNCs' performance. Institutional distance − regulatory, normative and cognitive − between the incomer and insiders has been identified as the likely source of the highest cost in doing business abroad. In this article, we draw on the existing literature but take the opposite perspective, looking instead at how various dimensions of proximity between local players increase MNC distance and foster local resistance. The study investigates two contexts and cases, India and Japan, at the time of foreign retailer entry and analyses the interplay between local proximity and local resistance. The analysis presents four dimensions of proximity, namely spatial proximity, relational proximity, identity proximity and inter-organizational proximity, which present the stiffest challenges to foreign retail ventures entering markets as newcomers.
    Keywords: retail,Asia,resistance,Liability of foreignness,proximity
    Date: 2017
  27. By: Marco Caliendo; Alexandra Fedorets; Malte Preuss; Carsten Schröder; Linda Wittbrodt
    Abstract: We assess the short-term employment effects of the introduction of a national statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015. For this purpose, we exploit variation in the regional treatment intensity, assuming that the stronger a minimum wage 'bites' into the regional wage distribution, the stronger the regional labour market will be affected. In contrast to previous studies, we draw upon detailed individual wage data from the Structure of Earnings Survey (SES) 2014 and combine it with administrative information on regional employment. Moreover, using the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we are able to afirm the absence of anticipation effects and verify the assumption of a common trend in wages before the reform. Based on hourly wages, we compute two regional bite indicators ̶̶̶ the share of affected employees and the Kaitz index ̶̶̶ for 141 regional labour markets. In order to get a broader picture, we construct and compare a variety of these measures, including a bite based on full-time workers only. All of these display a considerably strong correlation. Overall, we do not find a pronounced significant effect on regular (full- and part-time) employment in most specifications, although some estimations yield a small significant reduction amounting to 78,000 (roughly 0.3% of all regular jobs). The results concerning marginal employment are more pronounced. We find evidence that mini-jobs dropped substantially from 2014 to 2015, making for a reduction of about 180,000 jobs (about 2.4% of all mini-jobs). This result is robust to a variety of sensitivity tests.
    Keywords: Minimum Wage, Regional Bite, Employment Effects
    JEL: J23 J31 J38
    Date: 2017
  28. By: Wolter, Stefan C. (University of Bern); Zumbühl, Maria (University of Bern)
    Abstract: In this paper we follow the students that took the PISA 2012 test in Switzerland and analyze their transition into and progress in uppersecondary education. We observe a substantive difference in the rate of progress between natives and students with a migration background. One year after leaving compulsory school, the gap between the natives and migrants that are on-track – entering the second year of uppersecondary education – is 15 percentage points. Observable differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills can explain the gap in the success rate within upper-secondary education, but cannot fully explain the difference in the transition rate into upper-secondary education. More refined analyses present results that are consistent with the hypotheses of differences in tastes, aspirations and incomplete or inaccurate information about the education system explaining the gap in the transition into post-compulsory education.
    Keywords: education, migration, occupational choice
    JEL: I24 J15 J24 J62 J71
    Date: 2017–12
  29. By: Yaqin Su (Hunan University); Petros Tesfazion (Central College); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: Using a representative sample of rural migrants in cities, this paper investigates where the migrants in urban China come from, paying close attention to intra-provincial vs. inter-provincial migrants, and examining the differences in their personal attributes. We find that migrants who have come within the province differ significantly from those who have come from outside of the province. Using a nested logit model, we find that overall, higher wage differentials, larger population size, higher GDP per capita, and faster employment growth rate are the attributes of a city that attract migrants from both within and outside province. In addition, moving beyond one’s home province has a strong deterrent effect on migration, analogous to the “border effect” identified in international migration studies. We also explore the role of culture, institutional barrier, and dialect in explaining such a pronounced “border effect”.
    Keywords: rural-urban migration, China, border effect, inter- vs. intra-provincial migration
    JEL: J62 O15
    Date: 2018–01
  30. By: Tang, Cheng Keat
    Abstract: I evaluate whether speed enforcement cameras reduce the number and severity of traffic accidents by penalizing drivers for exceeding speed limits. Relying on micro data on accidents and speed cameras across Great Britain, I find that installing these devices significantly enhance road safety. Putting another 1,000 cameras reduce around 1130 collisions, 330 serious injuries, and save 190 lives annually, generating net benefits of around £21 million. However, these effects are highly localised around the camera and dissipate over distance, and there is suggestive evidence of more collisions away from the camera, illustrating the possible limitations associated with fixed speed cameras
    Keywords: accidents; injuries; fatalities; speed camera; speeding
    JEL: H23 I18 R41
    Date: 2017–09–01
  31. By: Argaw, Bethlehem A. (Leibniz University of Hannover); Puhani, Patrick A. (Leibniz University of Hannover)
    Abstract: We use administrative panel data on about a quarter of a million students in the German state of Hesse to estimate the causal effect of class size on school tracking outcomes after elementary school. Our identification strategy relies on the quasi-random assignment of students to different class sizes based on maximum class size rules. In Germany, students are tracked into more or less academic middle school types at about age ten based, to a large extent, on academic achievement in elementary school. We mostly find no or small effects of class size in elementary school on receiving a recommendation or on the actual choice to attend the more academic middle school type. For male students, we find that an increase in class size by 10 students would reduce their chance of attending the higher school track – which more than 40 percent of students attend – by 3 percentage points.
    Keywords: class size, panel, administrative data, education production
    JEL: I21 I28
    Date: 2017–12
  32. By: Tabitha Mwangi,; Florence Nelima Simiyu; Lulit Mitik Beyene; Albert Onderi
    Abstract: In Kenya, there has been increased debate on the impact of minimum wage increases and pay disparities between sectors. Long-term differences in earnings across sectors and different regions (urban and rural) are reflected through higher poverty rates in rural areas, especially among wage earners. This study evaluates the effects of minimum wages on labor and its impact on growth. The study uses the single country static model, the PEP-1-1 model and the Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya for the year 2009. The key research questions are to assess the effects of minimum wages on rural or urban area labor markets, labor migration, and income distribution. To achieve this, the study simulates three scenarios: increases in minimum wages for formal workers in urban and rural areas at the same rate of 5%, different rates (10% rural and 5% urban), and a cut in the minimum wages in both regions. The findings indicate that increases in wage fuel the migration of labor from rural to urban areas, and stifles the expansion of the economy. A rise in minimum wages has an overall negative effect on incomes of rural households while benefiting urban households, which contributes to increased inequality. A fall in real minimum wages on the other hand, is supportive of output and employment growth.
    Keywords: Minimum wage, labor market, migration, income distribution, CGE
    JEL: C68 J38 J61 E64
    Date: 2017
  33. By: Eerola, Essi; Lyytikainen, Teemu
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of housing demand subsidies on rents using discontinuities in the Finnish housing allowance system as a quasi-experimental setting. The stepwise dependence of housing allowance on the floor area of the dwelling and the year of construction of the building causes economically and statistically significant discontinuities in the amount of housing allowances. However, our results show that there are no discontinuities in rents of the recipient households at these cut-offs. Instead, differences in the amount of the housing allowance are translated roughly one-to-one into differences in the rent net of housing allowance
    Keywords: housing demand subsidies; housing allowance; incidence; rents
    JEL: H22
    Date: 2017–08–01
  34. By: Gioele Figus (CEP, International Public Policy Unit, University of Strathclyde); Patrizio Lecca (European Union); Peter McGregor (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Karen Turner (CEP, International Public Policy Unit, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Previous studies show that improving efficiency in household energy use can stimulate a national economy through an increase and change in the pattern of the aggregate demand. However, this may impact competitiveness. Here we find that in an open region, interregional migration of workers may give additional momentum to the economic expansion, by relieving pressure on the real wage and the CPI. Furthermore, the stimulus will be further enhanced by the greater fiscal autonomy that Scotland is set shortly to enjoy. By considering a range of CGE simulation scenarios we show that there is a tension between the economic stimulus from energy efficiency and the scale of rebound effects. However, we also show that household energy efficiency increases do typically generate a “double dividend†of increased regional economic activity and a reduction in carbon emissions.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, regional development policy, energy rebound, regional fiscal autonomy, general equilibrium
    JEL: C68 D58 Q43 Q48 R28 R58
    Date: 2017–02
  35. By: Hulya Saygili; K. Azim Ozdemir
    Abstract: This paper explores the roles different categories of infrastructure investment play in promoting economic growth across regions in Turkey. Two different approaches, namely partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and heteroskedastic panels corrected standard errors (HPC-SE) are used to compute regional physical, social and financial infrastructural indices and their impacts on income. Overall, the results reveal that differences in infrastructural endowments across Turkish regions explain a significant portion of regional disparity in per capita income. While financial infrastructure has a positive direct effect only, physical and social infrastructures contribute both directly and indirectly. We suggest that policy makers focus primarily on investing in physical infrastructure in order to mitigate the regional income disparity. Secondly, improving education, health and housing facilities as well as financial activities would contribute further diminishing income disparity across regions.
    Keywords: Infrastructure investment, Economic growth, Regional analysis, Turkey
    JEL: C3 H54 O18 O47
    Date: 2017
  36. By: Gautier, Pieter A.; Siegmann, Arjen; van Vuuren, Aico
    Abstract: Do higher real-estate agent fees imply better performance? This study uses a nation-wide data set of residential real-estate transactions in the Netherlands from 1985 to 2011 to provide evidence against this. Brokers with a flat fee structure who charge an up-front fee (which is substantially lower than the average fee of traditional brokers) and leave the viewings to the seller sell faster and at -on average- 2.7 percent higher prices. We correct for fixed house- and time effects. We provide additional evidence that sellers who chose for a flat fee broker were the ones who benefitted most from them.
    Keywords: agency; broker incentives; Housing; real-estate brokers
    JEL: D80 L10 L80 R20 R30
    Date: 2018–01
  37. By: Jean Paul Rodrigue (Hofstra University [Hempstead]); Laetitia Dablanc (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Genevieve Giuliano (USC - University of Southern California [Los Angeles])
    Abstract: The paper introduces the concept of the freight landscape: the spatial distribution of freight activity and intensity in a metropolitan area. Using population and employment density information, a freight landscape matrix is calculated for four major metropolitan areas: New York, Los Angeles, Paris and Seoul. Levels of convergence and divergence between population and employment densities are assessed, each characterized by different freight landscapes requiring different city logistics strategies. Results reveal substantial variations between metropolitan areas, which are observed across the respective levels of zonal specialization as well as density changes over distance from central areas.
    Date: 2017–01–01
  38. By: ARENAS, Andreu, (CORE, Université catholique de Louvain); MALGOUYRES, Clément, (Banque de France)
    Abstract: We study how economic conditions at the time of choosing post-compulsory education affect intergenerational mobility. Exploiting local variation in birthplace unemployment rate at age 16 across 23 cohorts in France, we find that cohorts deciding on post-compulsory education in bad economic times are more educationally mobile - their level of education is less related to having a white-collar father. These cohorts are also more occupationally mobile; and a large fraction of this effect is explaiend by business cycle-induced differences in educational attainment. Accounting for differential spatial mobility between birth and age 16 by parental background confirms the results.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, business cycle, human capital, occupational choice
    JEL: J24 I21 E24
    Date: 2017–12–22
  39. By: Cheshire, Paul; Gibbons, Stephen; Mouland, Jemma
    Abstract: Objectives: To test whether a social landlord can improve health outcomes for older tenants and reduce their NHS usage by simple interventions. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Social housing in five London Boroughs. Participants: 547 individuals over 50 years of age. Intervention: Baseline and two follow-up assessments of individual’s health and use of medical services undertaken by health professionals. In the treated groups, individuals were given health care and support at two different levels. 25 individuals had to be removed from the trial because early assessments revealed critical and untreated health issues. Main outcome measures: Self-reported health and wellbeing ratings and NHS usage. Conclusions: Even simple interventions to a targeted group (older and poorer people), can produce significant reductions in NHS usage. Significant reductions were found for 1) planned hospital usage; 2) nights in hospital; and 3) for emergency GP usage. Well-being scores improved in the most strongly treated group but these were not statistically significant. Perhaps the single most important finding was that the early health evaluations revealed that 4.5% of the total sample – not in the most deprived section of the population – had such severe health problems that significant and immediate intervention was required
    Keywords: randomised control trial; social housing; health interventions
    JEL: C93 I18 R29
    Date: 2017–08–01
  40. By: Zhang, Min; Partridge, Mark; Song, Huasheng
    Abstract: People increasingly value amenities as their living standards improve. While the past thirty years have witnessed significant income growth in China, the role of amenities is less discussed. This paper fills the gap by investigating how amenities shape the geography of innovation in China. The empirical results based on city-level data suggest that both natural and consumer amenities are positively associated with regional innovation. Specifically, amenities related to temperature comfort, air quality, sunshine, educational resources and healthcare services matter most. Further, the analysis suggests the influence of amenities on innovation is closely linked with city characteristics such as income, density, and human capital. Therefore, to formulate innovation-driven growth, more attention should be paid to the role of amenities and amenity-related strategies should be tailored to city characteristics.
    Keywords: natural amenities, consumer amenities, innovation, regional economy
    JEL: O31 Q55 R1
    Date: 2018–01–05
  41. By: Rode, Philipp; Gomes, Alexandra; Adeel, Muhammad; Sajjad, Fizzah; McArthur, Jenny; Alshalfan, Sharifa; Schwinger, Peter; Tunas, Devisari; Lange, Christiane; Montagne, Clemence; Hertog, Steffen; Koch, Andreas; Murshed, Syed Monjur; Wendel, Jochen; Duval, Alice
    Abstract: This report presents the key findings of the Resource Urbanisms project that LSE Cities at the London School of Economics and Political Science led between 2015 and 2017. This research, supported by the Kuwait Programme at the LSE Middle East Centre investigated questions of urban form, geography and sustainability in Kuwait and the Gulf States as part of a broader comparative analysis of divergent forms of urban growth in Asia. Given the distinct patterns of urban development, and the central role of land availability and natural resources, particularly oil, in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, this research focused on two natural resources, land and energy, and explored their relationships with urban form, transport and housing. It analysed these relationships through a comparative case study approach focusing on the city of Kuwait and Abu Dhabi in the GCC, and Hong Kong and Singapore in East Asia. Both the GCC and East Asian case studies are cities with similar income levels, but exhibit contrasting forms of urban development. More importantly, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi are endowed with vast amounts of natural resources, while Hong Kong and Singapore possess limited natural resources, making them useful and contrasting cases for comparative purposes. The research had four main objectives: first, it analysed the models of urban development that have emerged in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Singapore through an inter-urban and intra-urban comparison. Second, it compared the GCC models of urbanisation (Kuwait and Abu Dhabi) with the contrasting forms of development in Hong Kong and Singapore. Third, it provided fresh evidence on the relationship between the built environment, land availability and energy costs, with a particular focus on transport and urban form as well as housing and urban morphology. Finally, it sought to better understand the dynamics between the availability and costs of resources, government interventions, urban form and infrastructure, and environmental outcomes...
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–11
  42. By: Lynnette Dray (CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]); Isabelle Laplace (ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile); Aude Marzuoli (GA TECH - Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering - Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta]); Eric Féron (GATECH - Georgia Institute of Technology); Antony Evans (UCL - University College of London [London])
    Abstract: We investigate whether passenger delays and airline costs due to disruptive events affecting European airports could be reduced by a co-ordinated strategy of using alternative flights and ground transportation to help stranded passengers reach their final destination, using Airport Collaborative Decision Making concepts. Optimising for airline cost for hypothetical disruptive events suggests that, for airport closures of up to 10 hours, airlines could benefit from up to a 20% reduction in passenger delay-related costs. Mean passenger delay could be reduced by up to 70%, mainly via a reduction in very long delays.
    Keywords: Aviation system disruption recovery,collaborative decision making,real-time intermodality
    Date: 2017
  43. By: Peter B. Dixon; Michael Jerie; Maureen T. Rimmer; Glyn Wittwer
    Abstract: The Terrorism Risk Assessment (TRA) groups in the Department of Homeland Security assess millions of terrorism scenarios defined by location, agent (e.g. nuclear device), and delivery method (e.g. car bomb). For each scenario they estimate deaths, injuries, property damage, clean-up and health expenses, visitor discouragement, and other damage dimensions. The TRA groups translate damages into economic measures, e.g. loss of GDP. Previously they used an input-output (I-O) model. Here we replace I-O with computable general equilibrium (CGE). Solving CGE models is computationally time-consuming and requires specialist skills. For the TRA groups this creates two challenges: feasibility and security. A model that cannot be solved in less than a fraction of a second is infeasible for analyzing millions of scenarios. The TRAs can rely only on people with high security clearances, limiting the possibilities for obtaining specialist advice. Our approach to these challenges was to use a CGE model to estimate elasticities that show the sensitivity of economic variables to direct damage effects of events occurring in different regions. For example, we supplied the TRA groups with CGE-based estimates of the percentage effect on national welfare of destruction of 1 per cent of the capital stock in congressional district NY14. Our elasticity approach meets both challenges. First, for any given terrorism scenario specified by a location and a vector of direct damage shocks, the TRA groups can use the elasticities in linear equations to estimate in nanoseconds the implications for a wide range of economic variables. Second, as outside contractors, we have no need for access to sensitive information on specific shock vectors and target regions. We describe how we used a dynamic, multi-regional CGE model, USAGE-TERM, to estimate the elasticities.
    JEL: C68 F52 R13
    Date: 2017–04
  44. By: Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Cheng-Gang; Yang, Xiyi
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of China's industrial clusters on its economic growth and urban-rural income inequality. A density-based index (DBI) is developed to capture the unique features of such clusters in China. From a county-level DBI panel data constructed based on firm-level and county-level datasets, we find that strong clusters and entrepreneurial clusters substantially enhance economic growth. Moreover, entrepreneurial clusters reduce urban-rural income inequality by increasing the income of rural residents. Identification issues are carefully addressed by deploying an instrumental variable approach.
    Keywords: China; clustering; Geography; growth and inequality; institutions
    JEL: D2 H7 O1 R1 R3
    Date: 2017–12
  45. By: Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
    Abstract: I analyze whether reducing geographic distance to high-wage jobs increases access to those employment opportunities. I collect office locations and campus recruiting strategies for over 70 prestigious banking and consulting firms, from 2000 to 2013. Using an event-study framework, I find firms are 2 times more likely to recruit at local universities after opening a nearby office, and 6 times more likely outside industry clusters. New target campuses outside industry clusters are less academically selective. The results suggest place-based policies may improve access to high-wage firms, and also suggest the importance of a university's local labor market for post-graduation outcomes.
    Keywords: employer recruiting, local labor markets, returns to college
    JEL: J23 J61
    Date: 2017–12
  46. By: Charnoz, Pauline; Lelarge, Claire; Trevien, Corentin
    Abstract: We take advantage of the expansion of the French High Speed Rail to study the impact of reductions in travel times between headquarters and the affiliated plants of corporate groups on their employment structure and profit margin. We rely on comprehensive administrative data allowing us to provide a large scale, cross-industry test of alternatives theories of firm organization, with a rich set of empirical indicators. We obtain that decreases in communication costs in the form of lower travel times foster the functional specialization of remote affiliates on their production activities. Support activities shrink because of the transfer of the high-skilled managers to headquarters. These organizational rationalizations have a significant but relatively small impact on overall groups' profit. These results hold across all industries but are strongest in the service industries, where the information to be transmitted across sites is arguably softer.
    Keywords: Communication costs; firm organization; headquarters; high-speed rail; Public Infrastructure
    JEL: L22 R30 R40
    Date: 2018–01
  47. By: Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan); Oluwatomisinn Oyewole (Department of Economics, College of Management Sciences Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law (CPEEL), University of Ibadan, Nigeria.); Lateef O. Akanni (Department of Economics, University of Lagos,Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria)
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate a demand model for electricity in the US residential sector using both the 2009 and 2015 (RECS). We find socio-economic characteristics and building patterns of households as the main drivers of residential electricity demand in the US. Also, controlling for regional and climatic effects is found to enhance the performance of the estimated models. Our results are further complemented with plausible scenario analyses and robustness checks.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption, US residential sector, Demand analysis
    Date: 2018–01
  48. By: Bocar Ba; Jeffrey Grogger
    Abstract: In March 2010, the Chicago Police Department changed its Taser policy, issuing the weapons to patrol officers instead of largely restricting their use to sergeants. We used that policy change to obtain difference-in-difference estimates of how the availability of Tasers affected the types of force employed by police, the total number of use-of-force incidents, injury rates per incident, the total number of injuries, and the race distribution of civilians involved in use-of-force incidents. The policy change initially led to a large increase in the use of Tasers, with limited substitution from other types of force. After a period of re-training, substitution between Tasers and other types of force, both greater and lesser, increased. Police injuries fell, but neither injury rates nor the number of injuries to civilians were affected. There is no evidence that Tasers led to a reduction in police use of firearms.
    JEL: K4
    Date: 2018–01
  49. By: Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa; Díez Minguela, Alfonso
    Abstract: This paper studies regional income inequality in France since mid-nineteenth century. Given the dominant role played by Île-de-France and the city of Paris, which inspired the publication of “Paris et le désert française” (Gravier, 1947) and a debate on regional development in the aftermath of World War II, France seems an ideal scenario to examine the dynamics of regional income. In doing so, we first document the existing evidence before and after the development of national accounting. Using different approaches, several studies have produced regional (département, NUTS3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates from 1840 to 1930. Thus, our first contribution is to present these findings, assess the appropriateness of each methodology, and address potential concerns. The comparison of existing estimates for 1861-1930 raises some doubts about the pattern of regional inequality followed since 1861 to 1911. Hence we present new estimates for 1860-1930 based in the Geary and Stark (2002) method. In short, our estimates sum up new evidence in favour of an incessant decline in regional inequality since mid 19th up to 1930 and turn down the hypothesis of a potential U-shaped pattern in France since mid 19th century to nowadays. Additionally, we found that the use of nominal relative wages could overestimate the level or regional income inequality.
    Keywords: France; Regional inequality; Economic History
    JEL: R11 O18 N94 N93
    Date: 2018–01–01
  50. By: Gomez-Loscos, Ana; Gadea, M. Dolores; Bandres, Eduardo
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is threefold. First, we analyze the comovements of the business cycles of European regions. Second, we date these business cycles, for the first time in the literature, and identify clusters of regions with similar business cycle behavior, using Finite Mixture Markov models. Third, we develop a new index to measure within-country homogeneity. We find that comovement among regions is, on average, quite low, although it increased during the convergence process prior to the euro cash changeover and after the onset of the Great Recession. We identify five different groups of European regions. We also find heterogeneity in the size of border effects.
    Keywords: Business cycle dating, comovements, clusters, regions, Finite Mixture Markov models.
    JEL: C32 E32 R11
    Date: 2018–01
  51. By: Mühlemann, Samuel (University of Munich); Pfann, Gerard A. (Maastricht University); Pfeifer, Harald (BIBB); Dietrich, Hans (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of the G8 high school reform in Germany. The reform reduced minimum duration to obtain a high school degree (Abitur) from 9 to 8 years. First, we present a simple model based on a CES technology with heterogeneous inputs to conjecture possible effects of a supply shock of high education apprenticeships. Implementation of the reform across states (Länder) has been realized in different years. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy is used to identify the effects of one-time supply shock in market for high-educated apprentices. Training firms almost fully and immediately absorbed the additional supply of high school graduates in the apprenticeship market. No evidence is found for substitution effects between low and high education apprenticeships. The model explains that these effects may be due to sticky and too low collectively bargained wages for high education apprenticeships relative to their productivity. This renders the market for apprenticeships inefficient.
    Keywords: apprenticeship market, labor supply shock, G8 reform
    JEL: I21 J20
    Date: 2018–01
  52. By: Wasim, Summerina; Munir, Kashif
    Abstract: The main objective of the study is to analyze the changing trends of social (education and health) inequalities before and after decentralization at the inter-regional and intra-regional level in Pakistan from 2005 to 2015. Coefficient of variation and decomposition of Theil inequality index are used to evaluate the spatial dimensions of inequality at the provincial and rural-urban level. Results of CV indicate high disparity in the education and health sectors at both inter-provincial and intra-regional level. Decomposition of education inequality indicates improvement at provincial level. Rural population has high education inequality than urban. Results of Theil index predict that health inequality has narrowed in the women health in the period of decentralization. Disparity level of child health shows the existence of inequality at both the provincial and rural-urban levels. This situation even persists in the decentralization period. Although the situation of Diarrhoea treatment has improved at the provincial level but there are stark differences in the inequality level of rural and urban population. Within and between group inequality at the provincial and rural-urban level indicates a stable and decline in education and health inequality. Decentralization has slightly improved the situation in both areas, however, such economic and social policies should be adapted which helps to eliminate the issue of regional inequality and develop the lagging areas.
    Keywords: Regional Disparity, Social Inequality, Decentralization, Pakistan
    JEL: D63 I14 I24 R58
    Date: 2017–10–30
  53. By: Abebe, Girum; Caria, Stefano; Fafchamps, Marcel; Falco, Paolo; Franklin, Simon; Quinn, Simon; Shilpi, Forhad
    Abstract: Do matching frictions affect youth employment in developing countries? We organise job fairs in Addis Ababa, to match firms with a representative sample of young, educated job-seekers. We create very few jobs: one for approximately 10 firms that attended. We explore reasons for this, and find significant evidence for mismatched expectations: about wages, about firms requirements and about the average quality of job-seekers. We find evidence of learning and updating of beliefs in the aftermath of the fair. This changes behaviour: both workers and firms invest more in formal job search after the fairs
    Keywords: matching; labour; job-search; firms; recruitment; experiment
    JEL: J22 J24 J61 J64 O18
    Date: 2017–10–01
  54. By: Bietenbeck, Jan (Lund University); Ericsson, Sanna (Lund University); Wamalwa, Fredrick M. (University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: We study the effects of preschool attendance on children's school progression and cognitive skills in Kenya and Tanzania. Our analysis uses novel data from large-scale household surveys of children's literacy and numeracy skills, which also collect retrospective information on preschool attendance. Against the backdrop of a large expansion of pre-primary education, our regressions identify the impacts from within-household differences, controlling for a variety of child-specific covariates. In both countries, children who go to preschool tend to enroll in primary school late, and thus fall behind in terms of grades completed at early ages. However, once in school, they progress through grades faster and at ages 13-16 have completed about one and a half more months of schooling than their same-aged peers who did not attend preschool. They also score around 0.10 standard deviations higher on standardized cognitive tests, showing that there are important longer-term benefits from preschool in Kenya and Tanzania.
    Keywords: preschool, education, cognitive skills, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2017–12
  55. By: David Lagakos (University of California, San Diego); Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale University); Michael Waugh (New York University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogeneous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that depends on past migration experience. We calibrate the model to replicate a field experiment that subsidized migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in both migration rates and consumption for induced migrants. The model’s welfare predictions for migration subsidies are driven by two main features of the model and data: first, induced migrants tend to be negatively selected on income and assets; second, the model’s non-monetary disutility of migration is substantial, which we validate using newly collected survey data from this same experimental sample. The average welfare gains are similar in magnitude to those obtained from an unconditional cash transfer, and greater than from policies that discourage migration, though migration subsidies lead to larger gains for the poorest households, which have the greatest propensity to migrate.
    Keywords: rural-urban migration
    JEL: J61 O11
    Date: 2018–01
  56. By: Grillitsch, Markus (Lund University); Sotarauta, Markku (University of Tampere)
    Abstract: The study of regional growth paths is a key theme in economic geography and of elemental interest for policy makers concerned with regional development. Evolutionary theory explains the path-dependent nature of regional development, and points to its open-ended nature. This paper addresses the interplay between path-dependent, structural forces and the construction and utilization of opportunities through agentic processes. Extending to the evolutionary framework, it is argued that not only history but also perceived future opportunities influence agentic processes in the present and thus shape regional growth paths. Building on recent work about foresightful, strategic and distributed agency, this paper identifies three forms of agency, Schumpeterian innovative entrepreneurship, institutional entrepreneurship and place leadership, that call for and necessitate each other in the process of shaping regional growth paths. It is argued that such a holistic view is essential to understand regional development processes and in particular structural change as manifested in economic diversification and new industrial path development.
    Keywords: Regional development; agency; path-dependency; Schumpeterian innovative entrepreneurship; institutional entrepreneurship; place leadership; economic diversification; new industrial path development
    JEL: B52 L16 O30 R10
    Date: 2018–01–31

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