nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2017‒11‒26
fifty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Keeping a roof over our heads: BCEC housing affordability report 2016 By Alan S Duncan; Amity James; Kenneth Leong; Rachel Ong; Steven Rowley
  2. Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship By Bracke, Philippe; Hilber, Christian A. L.; Silva, Olmo
  3. Wage inequality and the Location of Cities By David Jinkins; Farid Farrokhi
  4. The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration By Evan Taylor; Bryan Stuart
  5. Transfer taxes and household mobility: distortion on the housing or labor market? By Hilber, Christian A. L.; Lyytikainen, Teemu
  6. The Impact of Establishing a Village Library for Students in Wolobetho Village, District of Ende, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia By Robinson Sinurat
  7. Urban Population and Amenities: The Neoclassical Model of Location By David Albouy; Bryan Stuart
  8. New road infrastructure: the effects on firms By Gibbons, Stephen; Lyytikainen, Teemu; Overman, Henry G.; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa
  9. Geographic Inequality of Economic Well-being among U.S. Cities: Evidence from Micro Panel Data By Choi, Chi-Young; Chudik, Alexander
  10. Modelling regional accessibility towards airports using discrete choice models: an application to the Apulian airport system By Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Capurso, Mauro; Hess, Stephane
  11. Innovation in Russia: the territorial dimension By Crescenzi, Riccardo; Jaax, Alexander
  12. Access to long-term care after a wealth shock: evidence from the housing bubble and burst By Costa-Font, Joan; Frank, Richard; Swartz, Katherine
  13. The mortgage rate conundrum By Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea
  14. Speed 2.0: evaluating access to universal digital highways By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Koutroumpis, Pantelis; Valletti, Tommaso
  15. Lenders' Competition and Macro-prudential Regulation: A Model of the UK Mortgage Supermarket By Matteo Benetton
  16. From brawn to brains: manufacturing-KIBS interdependency By Elche,Dioni; Consoli, Davide; Sánchez-Barrioluengo, Mabel
  17. Housing Market Freezes, Deleveraging, and Aggregate Demand By Christian Bayer; Ralph Luetticke
  18. High Streets for all. By We Made That,; LSE Cities,
  19. The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review By Ahfeldt, Gabriel M.; Pietrostefani, Elisabetta
  20. New Evidence on the Casual Effect of Traffic safety Laws on Drunk Driving and Traffic Fatalities By Wright, Nicholas Anthony; Lee, La-troy
  21. The infrastructural investments pursued in the Polish host cities in connection with Euro 2012 By Wiker, Dagmara
  22. Internal Devaluation and Macroeconomic Adjustment: Lessons from the Great Recession in the US By Riccardo Trezzi; Luca Dedola; Giancarlo Corsetti
  23. Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences By Liutang Gong; Chan Wang; Fuyang Zhao; Heng-fu Zou
  24. Does Economic Insecurity Affect Employee Innovation? By Shai Bernstein; Timothy McQuade; Richard R. Townsend
  25. Stuck in Subprime? Examining the Barriers to Refinancing Mortgage Debt By Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Reid, Carolina
  26. Skills diversity in unity By Grinis, Inna
  27. Does Segregation Reduce Socio-Spatial Mobility? Evidence from Four European Countries with Different Inequality and Segregation Contexts By Nieuwenhuis, Jaap; Tammaru, Tiit; van Ham, Maarten; Hedman, Lina; Manley, David
  28. Local economic effects of Brexit By Dhingra, Swati; Machin, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.
  29. Foreign Direct Investment and Urban Inequality: Evidence from Chinese Cities By Johansson, Anders C.; Liu, Dan; Zhen, Maosheng
  30. The impact of highway on population redistribution: The role of land development restrictions By Or Levkovich; Jan Rouwendal; Jos van Ommeren
  31. Revisiting Interregional Wage Differentials: New Evidence from Spain with Matched Employer-Employee Data By Murillo Huertas, Inés P.; Ramos, Raul; Simón, Hipólito
  32. Premium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers By Juan Saavedra; Dario Maldonado; Lucrecia Santibanez; Luis Omar Herrera Prada
  33. Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity By Edward L. Glaeser; Hyunjin Kim; Michael Luca
  34. Political Uncertainty and Innovation in China By Feng, Xunan; Johansson, Anders C.
  35. Transitioning beyond coal: Lessons from the structural renewal of Europe’s old industrial regions By Stephanie Campbell; Lars Coenen
  37. Neighbourhood Planning, Participation and Rational Choice. By Mace, Alan; Tewdwr-Jones, Mark
  38. Diffusing New Technology without Dissipating Rents: Some Historical Case Studies of Knwoledge Sharing By James Bessen; Alessandro Nuvolari
  39. The distance factor in Swedish bus contracts: how far are operators willing to go? By Vigren , Andreas
  40. Measuring Success in Education: The Role of Effort on the Test Itself By Uri Gneezy; John A. List; Jeffrey A. Livingston; Sally Sadoff; Xiangdong Qin; Yang Xu
  41. Segmentation versus agglomeration : competition between platforms with competitive sellers By Karle, Heiko; Peitz, Martin; Reisinger, Markus
  42. Cultural capital: arts graduates, spatial inequality, and London's impact on cultural labour market By Oakley, Kate; Laurison, Daniel; O'Brien, Dave; Friedman, Sam
  43. Linkages and Interdependence in Moroccan Regions By Eduardo Amaral Haddad
  44. Regional development under socialism: evidence from Yugoslavia By Kukić, Leonard
  45. Geographic Mobility and Redistribution - A Macro-Economic Analysis By Daniele Coen-Pirani
  46. Forced Migration and Mortality By Bauer, Thomas K.; Giesecke, Matthias; Janisch, Laura
  47. How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice By Parag A. Pathak; Peng Shi
  48. How many want to drive the bus? analyzing the number of bids for public transport bus contracts By Vigren, Andreas
  49. Improvement of Planning Methods for Freight Rail Transportation to Seaport Terminals By Sakhanova, Mariia; Zyatchin, Andrey V.
  50. Taxation, social protection, and governance decentralization By Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N.
  51. Studying Patterns of Communication in Virtual Urban Groups with Different Modes of Privacy By Vadim Voskresenskiy; Ilya Musabirov; Daniel Alexandrov
  52. Is There a 1033 Effect? Police Militarization and Aggressive Policing By Ajilore, Olugbenga

  1. By: Alan S Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Amity James (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Kenneth Leong (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin Business School); Rachel Ong (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University); Steven Rowley (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School)
    Abstract: Housing cost pressures continue to dominate as a key concern among Western Australian households, despite a general shift towards more favourable housing market conditions in Western Australia in recent years. Housing affordability estimates have not trended in the same direction in all locations, with some areas bucking the general downward trend in house prices and rents. Furthermore, many individuals in the lower end of the income distribution have not benefited from these trends and remain acutely exposed to housing stress and the risk of homelessness. As the population ages, growing numbers of older Western Australians face crucial decisions regarding their housing in later life including options for downsizing. At the same time, the future home ownership prospects of the young remain dim. Keeping a Roof Over Our Heads is the seventh report in the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre’s Focus on Western Australia series and the centre’s second housing affordability report. Using the latest data available, this report seeks to critically assess recent trends in the state’s housing costs and how these vary across spatial locations in WA. The report also examines the degree to which social housing alleviate housing cost pressures for low-income West Australian households and sheds light on some of the complexities that are associated with homelessness, such as precarious health. The report features findings from a new Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre survey of over 4,000 households in WA, New South Wales and Queensland to highlight WA’s housing affordability position relative to other states. This report shows that measures of severe housing stress have increased more for renters in WA than the rest of Australia. While most key workers have seen an increase, from 2013 to 2015, in the number of suburbs in which they can rent an affordable dwelling, the same cannot be said for those on the minimum wage. It remains the case that there are no affordable rental properties for an adult minimum wage holder. Many pockets of the population are still vulnerable to housing stress, including single parents, and excess demand for public housing in WA has not eased over the years. The BCEC Housing Affordability Survey indicates that households’ experience of housing affordability are influenced not just by prices or rents, but the extent of housing choice and commuting costs. The lack of housing diversity in WA compared to other states such as New South Wales can constrain housing choice among West Australian households. Furthermore, many West Australians spend more time commuting than they would prefer. The ageing of WA’s population raises new challenges and opportunities in relation to housing options for older households. Generation Y households continue to face severe barriers to accessing home ownership, raising questions regarding the role of intergenerational transfers from the old to the young in helping young West Australians secure affordable housing. Finally and importantly, affordability concerns are particularly acute in regional Western Australia. Residents of regional WA are more likely to perceive their housing as unaffordable than residents of regional New South Wales or Queensland. Moreover, homelessness is far more widespread in the West Australian Outback than metropolitan areas.
    Keywords: Western Australia, WA economy, housing pathways, housing affordability, income and wealth, financial disadvantage, housing stress
    Date: 2016–05
  2. By: Bracke, Philippe; Hilber, Christian A. L.; Silva, Olmo
    Abstract: We study the link between mortgage debt and entrepreneurship using a model of occupational choice and housing tenure in a setting where loans are recourse|like in the UK and several US states. Our model shows that as long as the mortgage interest rate exceeds the risk-free rate: (i) mortgage debt diminishes the likelihood of entrepreneurship by amplifying risk aversion; and (ii) the negative relation between mortgage debt and entrepreneurship increases with income volatility. Our model also shows that the link between housing equity and entrepreneurship is ambiguously signed because of competing portfolio and wealth effects. We use the British Household Panel Survey to test and confirm the model predictions, and deal with unobservable heterogeneity employing three research designs | individual fixed effects, housing-spell fixed effects, and instrumental variables. A one standard deviation increase in leverage reduces the probability of entrepreneurship by 10-20 percent
    JEL: N0 G32 F3 G3
    Date: 2017–10–26
  3. By: David Jinkins (Copenhagen Business School); Farid Farrokhi (Purdue University)
    Abstract: In cross-sectional American census data, we document that isolated cities tend to have less wage inequality. To explain this correlation and other correlations between population and wages, we build an equilibrium empirical model that incorporates high and low-skill labor, costly trade, and both agglomeration and congestion forces. The model bridges the gap between the spatial inequality literature which abstracts from geography, and the economic geography literature which abstracts from inequality. We find that geographical location explains 9.2% of observed variation in wage inequality across American cities. In counterfactual experiments, we find that reductions in domestic trade costs benefit all American workers and decrease welfare inequality. We also examine the effects on inequality and welfare of both regional and national skill-biased technology shocks. We find that in larger cities wage inequality grows more than welfare inequality.
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Evan Taylor (University of Chicago); Bryan Stuart (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of social connectedness on crime across U.S. cities from 1960- 2009. Migration networks among African Americans from the South generated variation across destinations in the concentration of migrants from the same birth town. Using this novel source of variation, we find that social connectedness considerably reduces murders, robberies, assaults, burglaries, larcenies, and motor vehicle thefts, with a one standard deviation increase in social connectedness reducing murders by 13 percent and motor vehicle thefts by 9 percent. Our results appear to be driven by stronger relationships among older generations reducing crime committed by youth.
    Keywords: crime, social connectedness, Great Migration
    JEL: K42 N32 R23 Z13
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Hilber, Christian A. L.; Lyytikainen, Teemu
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) – a transfer tax on the purchase price of property or land – on different types of household mobility using micro data. Exploiting a discontinuity in the tax schedule, we isolate the impact of the tax from other determinants of mobility. We compare homeowners with self-assessed house values on either sides of a cut-off value where the tax rate jumps from 1 to 3 percent. We find that a higher SDLT has a strong negative impact on housing-related and short distance moves but does not adversely affect job-induced or long distance mobility. Overall, our results suggest that transfer taxes may mainly distort housing rather than labor markets.
    Keywords: transfer taxes; stamp duty; transaction costs; homeownership; household mobility
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2017–06
  6. By: Robinson Sinurat (Columbia University School of Social Work)
    Abstract: This study investigated the impact of establishing a library on students? study motivation in Wolobetho Village, District of Ende, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The targeted students consisted of all students from three different schools in Wolobetho village: Primary School Feoria (29 students), Primary School Fungapanda (74 students), and Vocational High School 6 (39 students). To identify the effects of the intervention, the modified ten questions pre-and post-intervention student surveys were used as well as the semi-structured interviews to all students in those three schools. The six-months intervention of the new library consisted of three projects with cooperative learning activities, purposeful tasks, and learners? self-determination. Although this study was limited in duration and scope, the results had positive effects of the library on learner motivation. The study revealed that access to the library impacted high school students? positive attitude toward learning writing and primary school students? positive attitude toward learning reading. Both primary and high school students increased in motivational intensity as well as their desire to learn English. However, it was found that the students need more guidance and supervision from the teachers. The students did not have a close relationship with their teacher as a motivating factor. It also showed obstacles in implementing some after school programs for the students. Based on these findings, some pedagogical recommendations for better results are discussed and some suggestions are included for the future research.
    Keywords: Student Motivation, East Nusa Tenggara, After School Programs
    JEL: I21 Q01 I24
    Date: 2017–10
  7. By: David Albouy (University of Illinois and NBER); Bryan Stuart (George Washington University)
    Abstract: We develop a neoclassical general-equilibrium model to explain cross-metro variation in population, density, and land supply. We provide new methods to estimate local traded and non-traded productivities, and elasticities of housing and land supply, using density and land-area data. From wage and housing-cost indices, the model explains half of U.S. density and total population variation, and finds that quality-oflife determines population and density more than employment opportunities (tradeproductivity). Productivity and factor substitution in housing (non-traded) production matter most, but are poor in nicer areas. We show how changing quality-of-life, relaxing land-use regulations, or neutralizing federal taxes could redistribute populations massively
    Keywords: Population, density, quality of life, productivity, amenities, housing supply, land supply, local labor markets
    JEL: R23 R12 R31 H2
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Lyytikainen, Teemu; Overman, Henry G.; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of new road infrastructure on employment and labour productivity using plant level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured through changes in accessibility, calculated at a detailed geographical scale from changes in minimum journey times along the road network. These changes are induced by the construction of new road link schemes. We deal with the potential endogeneity of scheme location by identifying the effects of changes in accessibility from variation across small-scale geographical areas close to the scheme. We find substantial positive effects on area level employment and number of plants. In contrast, for existing firms we find negative effects on employment coupled with increases in output per worker and wages. A plausible interpretation is that new transport infrastructure attracts transport intensive firms to an area, but with some cost to employment in existing businesses.
    Keywords: productivity; employment; accessibility; transport
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2017–05
  9. By: Choi, Chi-Young (University of Texas at Arlington); Chudik, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    Abstract: We analyze the geographic inequality of economic well-being among U.S. cities by utilizing a novel measure of quantity based product-level economic well-being, i.e., the number of goods and services that can be purchased by consumers with an average city wage. We find a considerable cross-city dispersion in the economic well-being and the geographic dispersion has been on the steady rise since the mid-1990s for most goods and services under study. Strong geographic correlations exist in the local economic well-being and our empirical analysis based on a Global VAR (GVAR) model suggests that national shocks are an important source behind it. On average, about 30-35% of the variance of local well-being is explained by common national shocks, but the impact of common national shocks varies considerably across products, albeit to a lesser extent across cities. Nationwide unemployment shock, for example, has a stronger effect in the products whose prices are adjusted more frequently and in the cities that have a larger fraction of high-skill workers. Taken together, our results indicate that the geographic inequality of economic well-being observed in the U.S. has proceeded over time mainly through the products with more flexible price adjustments and in the cities with higher concentration of skilled workers.
    JEL: E21 E31 R12 R31
    Date: 2017–11–01
  10. By: Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Capurso, Mauro; Hess, Stephane
    Abstract: At the Regional level, accessibility is one of the key factors in airports' provision. An efficient public transport network can represent an alternative to maintaining costly and inefficient airports in the same catchment area, notwithstanding residents’ pressures to have a “local” airport. At the same time, airports can better exploit economies of scale aggregating demand. In this paper, we analyse residents' decisions regarding airport access mode in the Apulia region, in Italy, which is characterised by the presence of a system of “local” airports, of which two not fully operating. Both revealed and stated preferences data are collected and are used to estimate probabilistic models (multinomial, nested logit, and mixed logit) in order to calculate the relevant elasticities of dedicated public transit services. Moreover, we measure the effectiveness of specific policies/actions aimed at generating a modal shift from private modes (car and taxi) to public transport, rationalising mobility towards the existing airports.
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Crescenzi, Riccardo; Jaax, Alexander
    Abstract: The debate on Russia’s innovation performance has paid little attention to the role of geography. This paper addresses this gap by integrating an evolutionary dimension in an ‘augmented’ regional knowledge production function framework to examine the territorial dynamics of knowledge creation in Russia. The empirical analysis identifies a strong link between regional R&D expenditure and patenting performance. However, R&D appears inadequately connected to regional human capital. Conversely, Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) play a fundamental role as ‘global knowledge pipelines’. The incorporation of historical variables reveals that the Russian case is a striking example of long-term pathdependency in regional patterns of knowledge generation. Endowment with Soviet-founded science cities remains a strong predictor of current patenting. However, current innovation drivers and policies also concur to enhance (or hinder) innovation performance in all regions. The alignment of regional innovation efforts, exposure to localised knowledge flows and injections of ‘foreign’ knowledge channelled by MNEs make path-renewal and pathcreation possible, opening new windows of locational opportunity.
    Keywords: innovation; R&D; evolutionary economic geography; regions; BRICS; Russia
    JEL: O32 O33 R11 R12
    Date: 2017–08–03
  12. By: Costa-Font, Joan; Frank, Richard; Swartz, Katherine
    Abstract: Home equity is the primary self-funding mechanism for long term services and supports (LTSS). Using data from the relevant waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1996-2010), we exploit the exogenous variation in the form of wealth shocks resulting from the value of housing assets, to examine the effect of wealth on use of home health, unpaid help and nursing home care by older adults. We find a significant increase in the use of paid home health care and unpaid informal care but no effect on nursing home care access. We conduct a placebo test on individuals who do not own property; their use of LTSS was not affected by the housing wealth changes. The findings suggest that a wealth shock exerts a positive and significant effect on the uptake of home health and some effect on unpaid care but no significant effect on nursing home care.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–09
  13. By: Justiniano, Alejandro (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Primiceri, Giorgio E. (Northwestern University, CEPR, and NBER); Tambalotti, Andrea (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: We document the emergence of a disconnect between mortgage and Treasury interest rates in the summer of 2003. Following the end of the Federal Reserve’s expansionary cycle in June 2003, mortgage rates failed to rise according to their historical relationship with Treasury yields, leading to significantly and persistently easier mortgage credit conditions. We uncover this phenomenon by analyzing a large data set with millions of loan-level observations, which allows us to control for the impact of varying loan, borrower, and geographic characteristics. These detailed data also reveal that delinquency rates started to rise for loans originated after mid-2003, exactly when mortgage rates disconnected from Treasury yields and credit became relatively cheaper.
    Keywords: credit boom; housing boom; securitization; private label; subprime
    JEL: E32 E44 G21
    Date: 2017–11–01
  14. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Koutroumpis, Pantelis; Valletti, Tommaso
    Abstract: This paper shows that having access to a fast Internet connection is an important determinant of capitalization effects in property markets. Our empirical strategy combines a boundary discontinuity design with controls for time-invariant effects and arbitrary macro-economic shocks at a very local level to identify the causal effect of broadband speed on property prices from variation that is plausibly exogenous. Applying this strategy to a micro data set from England between 1995 and 2010 we find a significantly positive effect, but diminishing returns to speed. Our results imply that disconnecting an average property from a high-speed first-generation broadband connection (offering Internet speed up to 8 Mbit/s) would depreciate its value by 2.8%. In contrast, upgrading such a property to a faster connection (offering speeds up to 24 Mbit/s) would increase its value by no more than 1%. We decompose this effect by income and urbanization, finding considerable heterogeneity. These estimates are used to evaluate proposed plans to deliver fast broadband universally. We find that increasing speed and connecting unserved households passes a cost-benefit test in urban and some suburban areas, while the case for universal delivery in rural areas is not as strong.
    Keywords: internet; property prices; capitalization; digital speed; universal access to broadband
    JEL: H4 L1 R2
    Date: 2017–07
  15. By: Matteo Benetton (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper develops and estimates an empirical model of the UK mortgage market and studies the effect of macro-prudential regulation on lending activity. We estimate a discrete-continuous choice demand model of mortgages with a new administrative dataset of the universe of residential mortgage originations. Borrowers decide jointly the lender, the rate type and the leverage, facing a non-linear price schedule and affordability constraints on their choice sets. We find: 1) 10 basis points increase in the interest rate decreases the market share of a product by 6% on average; 2) a 1% increase in the interest rate decreases loan demand by about 4%; 3) both elasticities are heterogeneous across leverage levels, borrower types and lenders. We derive a pricing equation that takes into account default and refinancing risk and we characterise the Nash-Bertrand equilibrium, subject to risk-adjusted capital constraints. We use the estimated parameters to study the pass-through of capital requirements in two different counterfactual regimes.
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Elche,Dioni; Consoli, Davide; Sánchez-Barrioluengo, Mabel
    Abstract: This paper analyses the interdependency between manufacturing and KIBS by focussing on two questions: which manufacturing industries are complementary with KIBS development? And, do cross-sectoral interdependencies exhibit geographical heterogeneity? We elaborate an empirical analysis of employment data of 279 municipalities in Spain over the period 1981-2011. Our first finding is that the typology of manufacturing activities that have positive employment effect ranges between two opposite poles: either well-established (viz. supplier-dominated) or emergent (viz. science based) industries. Further, and coherent with prior literature, we find that the overall job multiplier effect of manufacturing on KIBS is most prominent in areas with denser agglomeration.
    Keywords: Knowledge Intensive Business Services, Manufacturing; Employment, Job Multiplier
    Date: 2017–11–14
  17. By: Christian Bayer (Universitaet Bonn); Ralph Luetticke (University College London)
    Abstract: This paper develops a general equilibrium model of incomplete markets, liquid paper assets and illiquid housing. Housing liquidity fluctuates significantly over time and systematically so over the business cycle. A decrease in the liquidity of housing leads to an increased demand for liquid paper assets and a decrease in demand for houses (as assets). We show that the model generates substantial business cycle effects of fluctuations in housing liquidity on house prices, employment and output, while being in line with relatively small fluctuations in rental rates of housing. We find that low housing liquidity during the Great Recession offers a novel explanation for the sharp decline in interest rates on government bonds.
    Date: 2017
  18. By: We Made That,; LSE Cities,
    Abstract: This study takes one of the most commonplace and everyday experiences of the city – the high street – and explores its social value from the perspective of Londoners. Social value is most commonly understood to be made up of economic, social and environmental aspects. Together with existing knowledge and new primary research, the study uses this evidence to set out the strategic case for advocacy, intervention and investment in London’s high streets.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–09–01
  19. By: Ahfeldt, Gabriel M.; Pietrostefani, Elisabetta
    Abstract: The ‘compact city’ is one of the most prominent concepts to have emerged in the global urban policy debate, though it is difficult to ascertain to what extent its theorised positive outcomes can be substantiated by evidence. Our review of the theoretical literature identifies three main compact city characteristics that have effects on 15 categories of outcomes: economic density, morphological density and mixed land use. The scope of our quantitative evidence-review comprises all theoretically relevant combinations of characteristics and outcomes. We review 321 empirical analyses in 189 studies for which we encode the qualitative result along with a range of study characteristics. In line with theoretical expectations, 69% of the included analyses find normatively positive effects associated with compact urban form, although the mean finding is negative for almost half of the combinations of outcomes and characteristics.
    Keywords: compact; city; density; meta-analysis; sustainability; urban
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–06
  20. By: Wright, Nicholas Anthony; Lee, La-troy
    Abstract: In the United States, about 28 lives are lost daily in motor vehicle accidents that involve an alcohol-impaired driver. The conventional wisdom is that these accidents can be prevented through the use of strict traffic laws that are robustly enforced, though no consensus exists on the causal impact of these laws in reducing motor vehicle-related fatalities. This paper exploits quasi-random variation in state-level driving and road safety restrictions to estimate the causal effect of select traffic laws on the number of fatal accidents and fatal accidents involving a drunk driver. In this paper, we employ the contiguous-border county-pair approach. This is causally identified from the discontinuities in policy treatments among homogeneous contiguous counties that are separated by a shared state border. This approach addresses the econometric issues created due to spatial heterogeneity that may have biased several studies in the literature. The analysis reveals that the laws related to accident prevention, such as having a good graduated licensing system, Pigovian beer taxes and primary seatbelt enforcement, are the most effective in reducing motor vehicle-related fatalities. Using these estimated coefficients, simple simulations suggest that policymakers have been utilizing existing traffic laws sub-optimally, saving only 17% of the lives lost to motor vehicle crashes.
    Keywords: traffic-fatalities, drunk-driving, traffic safety legislations
    JEL: I18 K10 R41
    Date: 2017–12
  21. By: Wiker, Dagmara
    Abstract: The event became a catalyst for the execution of more than two hundred projects for an amount of ca. PLN 100 billion. This paper focuses on the key projects, including above all the road construction projects, as well as those connected to air and rail infrastructure.
    Keywords: infrastructure, Euro 2012, roads
    JEL: H00
    Date: 2017–09–13
  22. By: Riccardo Trezzi (Board of Governors - Federal Reserve); Luca Dedola (European Central Bank); Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: This paper carries out a systematic reconsideration of the evidence on price, wage and employment adjustment in response to the housing price cycle during the Great Recession across US jurisdictions -- i.e., US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (henceforth MSAs). It offers an insightful decomposition of relative price adjustment by sectors, and relates it to determinants in terms of relative sectoral wages (cost) and employment (slack) dynamics. Over the period 2008-2013, asymmetric housing price shocks were virtually uncorrelated with price and wage inflation across MSAs, while they significantly affected output, income and employment in services, the retail sector and construction. Decomposing the response of relative price inflation into that of goods and services (ex-rents) shows that the relative price of consumption goods fell with housing prices, while the relative price of services increased, with roughly identical elasticities basically offsetting the effect of each other movements.
    Date: 2017
  23. By: Liutang Gong (Guanghua School of Management and LMEQF, Peking University); Chan Wang (School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics); Fuyang Zhao (Guanghua School of Management and LMEQF, Peking University); Heng-fu Zou (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a complementary relationship between consumption and labor hours by revising the household's period utility function in Liu et al. (2013). The revision concomitantly allows for a finite Frisch elasticity of labor supply and a stronger consumption smoothing motive. We find that, in general, the estimation of Liu et al. (2013) is quite robust. In addition, the propagation mechanism of the credit constraint triggered by a housing demand shock still persists. However, the amplification effect of the credit constraint triggered by the housing demand shock on key macroeconomic variables is greatly muted. We also find that, except for land price fluctuations, the housing demand shock cannot act as the primary force to drive the fluctuations in other macroeconomic variables.
    Keywords: Collateral constraint, Housing demand shock, Nonseparable preferences, Macroeconomic fluctuations
    JEL: E5 F3 F4
    Date: 2017–10
  24. By: Shai Bernstein; Timothy McQuade; Richard R. Townsend
    Abstract: Do household wealth shocks affect employee productivity? We examine this question through the lens of technological innovation, by comparing employees that worked at the same firm and lived in the same metropolitan area, but experienced different housing wealth declines during the 2008 crisis. Following a housing wealth shock, employees are less likely to successfully pursue innovative projects, particularly ones that are high impact, complex, or exploratory in nature. Consistent with employee concerns about financial distress, the effects are more pronounced among those who had little equity in their house before the crisis and among those with fewer outside labor market opportunities. Moreover, run-ups in housing prices before the crisis did not affect employee innovation. The results highlight a “bottom-up” view of innovation, in which individual employees influence the quantity and nature of innovation produced within firms.
    JEL: G01 O3 O31 O32
    Date: 2017–11
  25. By: Lambie-Hanson, Lauren (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Reid, Carolina (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: Despite falling interest rates and major federal policy intervention, many borrowers who could financially gain from refinancing have not done so. We investigate the rates at which, relative to prime borrowers, subprime borrowers seek and take out refinance loans, conditional on not experiencing mortgage default. We find that starting in 2009, subprime borrowers are about half as likely as prime borrowers to refinance, although they still shop for mortgage credit, indicating their interest in refinancing. The disparity in refinancing is driven in part by the tightened credit environment post-financial crisis, along with the fact that many subprime borrowers are ineligible for the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which is the major policy initiative designed to assist borrowers in refinancing their mortgages. We argue that these barriers to refinancing for subprime borrowers have long-term implications for social stratification and wealth building. These concerns are exacerbated by an additional finding of our work that refinance rates have been significantly lower for black and Hispanic borrowers, even after controlling for borrower credit status.
    Keywords: mortgage refinancing; subprime; household finance
    JEL: D12 G21 J15
    Date: 2017–11–16
  26. By: Grinis, Inna
    Abstract: At any point in time, skills gaps, mismatches, and shortages arise because of an imperfect correspondence between the singular sets of skills required by different open vacancies and the unique combinations of capabilities embodied in every job seeker - skills diversity in unity. This paper first constructs an abstract framework for defining and thinking about these phenomena in a unified, formal and objective way. The main building block is a discrete skills space in which the locations of vacancies and workers are determined by the vectors of skills characterizing them. We define skills gaps and mismatches as two different distance measures between them, and derive a condition for each vacancy that determines whether or not it experiences a skills shortage. We then develop a job matching model with imperfect information, in which skills mismatches influence the job application decisions of the workers, while skills gaps and shortages shape the competition for workers on the resulting bipartite job applications network. The tools proposed in this paper could in future work be employed as the main ingredients of an agent-based model used to investigate how skills gaps, mismatches and shortages affect equilibrium outcomes in the context of skills diversity in unity and imperfect information
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2017–07–01
  27. By: Nieuwenhuis, Jaap (Delft University of Technology); Tammaru, Tiit (University of Tartu); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Hedman, Lina (Uppsala University); Manley, David (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: The neighbourhoods in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying socio-spatial mobility between neighbourhoods gives insight in the openness of spatial class structures of societies and in the ability of people to leave disadvantaged neighbourhoods. We study the extent to which people move between different types of neighbourhoods by socio-economic status in different inequality and segregation contexts in four European countries: Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Estonia. The study is based on population registers and census data for the 2001–2011 period. For the UK, which has long had high levels of social inequalities and high levels of socio-economic segregation, we find that levels of mobility between neighbourhood types are low and opportunities to move to more socio-economically advantaged neighbourhoods are modest. In Estonia, which used to be one or the most equal and least segregated countries in Europe and now is one of the most liberal and market oriented countries, we find high levels of mobility, but these reproduce segregation patterns and it is difficult to move to better neighbourhoods for those in the most deprived neighbourhoods. In the Netherlands and Sweden, where social inequalities are the smallest, it is easiest to move from the most deprived to less deprived neighbourhoods. To conclusion, the combination of high levels of social inequalities and high levels of spatial segregation tend to lead to a vicious circle of segregation for low income groups, where it is difficult to undertake both upward social mobility and upward spatial mobility.
    Keywords: social mobility, spatial mobility, disadvantaged neighbourhoods, segregation, inequality, international comparison
    JEL: I32 J61 J62 R23
    Date: 2017–10
  28. By: Dhingra, Swati; Machin, Stephen; Overman, Henry G.
    Abstract: This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit.
    Keywords: Brexit; EU and UK; local economic impacts; trade models
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2017–10–31
  29. By: Johansson, Anders C. (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute); Liu, Dan (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Zhen, Maosheng (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban wage inequality in China. We find that the within-city college premium is larger for cities characterized by a higher degree of FDI penetration. We then try to establish the causal impact of FDI penetration on city inequality using historical Christian influence as an instrumental variable. In addition, firm-level evidence shows that FDI has amplified both between-firm inequality and within-firm inequality. FDI firms do not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Finally, an individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a spillover effect on low-skilled workers, but the magnitude of that effect is much smaller than the effect on high-skilled workers.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; skill premium; inequality; China
    JEL: F21 I30 R11
    Date: 2017–11–15
  30. By: Or Levkovich (Department of Spatial Economics, VU University); Jan Rouwendal (Tinbergen Institute); Jos van Ommeren (Tinbergen Institute)
    Abstract: We study the role of land development restrictions for the effects of highway expansion on the spatial distribution of population. We demonstrate that these restrictions strongly interfered with the effects of highways in the Netherlands. Introducing an IV approach to address endogenous interaction variables, our findings show that new highways accelerated population growth in peripheral areas, but had no such effect in central cities and suburban municipalities. We find that due to development restrictions near larger cities, the highway expansion caused a ‘leapfrog’ pattern, in which suburban growth skipped development-restricted areas and expanded into farther located peripheral areas.
    Keywords: highways; development restrictions; population redistribution; suburbanization; instrumental variables; endogenous interaction variables
    JEL: R11 R58 R52
    Date: 2017–11–17
  31. By: Murillo Huertas, Inés P. (Universidad de Extremadura); Ramos, Raul (University of Barcelona); Simón, Hipólito (Universidad de Alicante)
    Abstract: This study examines wage differences across Spain's regions along the entire wage distribution based on matched employer-employee microdata from 2006 to 2014. Unlike previous studies, we control for differences in regional purchasing power parities, which are very large in practice. Although many of the raw wage differences observed are explained by differences between regional productive structures and, to a lesser extent, in labour forces, noteworthy regional differences net of composition effects remain after controlling for a broad set of individual and firm characteristics. Unexplained wage differences are generally very similar throughout the wage distribution and are strongly persistent over time, despite significant changes in both economic cycle and labour regulations that occurred in Spain during the examined period. This evidence suggests the presence of common mechanisms in the generation of regional wage differentials that affect the whole labour force and that are strongly persistent over time, which is consistent with a key role of collective bargaining
    Keywords: interregional wage differentials, decomposition methods, matched employer-employee data, wage setting institutions
    JEL: J31 J52
    Date: 2017–10
  32. By: Juan Saavedra; Dario Maldonado; Lucrecia Santibanez; Luis Omar Herrera Prada
    Abstract: It is unclear whether public sector teachers are under or overpaid relative to other occupations due to lack of knowledge about teachers’ outside labor market options and other unobserved attributes related to compensation. We estimate causal labor market returns to novice public teachers in Colombia. Our approach takes advantage of a national, standardized, teacher-screening exam, scores on which determine eligibility for public teaching jobs. We use four nationwide administrative data sources in a regression discontinuity approach to show that applicants who marginally pass the teacher screening test have greater annual earnings during the first three years of tenure than applicants below the passing cutoff. The total earnings effect is a combination of higher daily wages and greater labor supply, part of which is in outside, predominantly non-teaching jobs for a substantial fraction of public teachers. For infra-marginal high-scoring applicants, we show that being a public teacher in Colombia is as attractive, if not more, as for those at the margin. On the whole, rather than a penalty, public teachers in Colombia across all ability levels earn a substantial labor market premium early in their careers.
    JEL: J22 J24 O15 O38
    Date: 2017–11
  33. By: Edward L. Glaeser; Hyunjin Kim; Michael Luca
    Abstract: Can new data sources from online platforms help to measure local economic activity? Government datasets from agencies such as the U.S. Census Bureau provide the standard measures of local economic activity at the local level. However, these statistics typically appear only after multi-year lags, and the public-facing versions are aggregated to the county or ZIP code level. In contrast, crowdsourced data from online platforms such as Yelp are often contemporaneous and geographically finer than official government statistics. In this paper, we present evidence that Yelp data can complement government surveys by measuring economic activity in close to real time, at a granular level, and at almost any geographic scale. Changes in the number of businesses and restaurants reviewed on Yelp can predict changes in the number of overall establishments and restaurants in County Business Patterns. An algorithm using contemporaneous and lagged Yelp data can explain 29.2 percent of the residual variance after accounting for lagged CBP data, in a testing sample not used to generate the algorithm. The algorithm is more accurate for denser, wealthier, and more educated ZIP codes.
    JEL: E17 O33 R11
    Date: 2017–11
  34. By: Feng, Xunan (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics); Johansson, Anders C. (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute)
    Abstract: We hypothesize that political uncertainty has an adverse effect on investments in activities related to innovation. Combining two hand-collected data sets on changes in local government officials and research and development (R&D) activity at the firm level in China, we examine how political turnover influences investments in R&D. We find that a change in local political leaders is associated with a significant decrease in R&D activity. This result is robust to various robustness tests. The decrease is larger when the new political leader is promoted from outside the city in question. Moreover, the decrease is significantly larger for privately controlled firms, firms operating in regions characterized by weak economic institutions, and firms within R&D-intensive industries. Our findings suggest that political uncertainty constitutes an important channel through which the local political process influences activities related to innovation.
    Keywords: Innovation; R&D expenditures; Political turnover; Political uncertainty; Local officials; China
    JEL: G18 G32 G38 O30 O31 O32
    Date: 2017–11–15
  35. By: Stephanie Campbell (Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne); Lars Coenen (Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: It is often assumed that a transition to a low-carbon future will have highly disruptive and potentially devastating effects on coal regions and their communities. However, evidence from the experience of industrial decline and attempted renewal in Europe’s old industrial regions demonstrates that successful regional transition is—while not inevitable—indeed possible. Fundamental transformation of existing industrial, institutional, social and technological structures is not an easy nor straightforward process but fraught with the challenges of creative destruction: while new industrial activities and structures emerge, existing ones are broken down. Drawing on the literature of regional resilience and innovation, the paper offers lessons, insights and cautionary warnings from the experience of renewal initiatives in Europe’s old industrial regions and illustrates the ways in which some of the seeds for a ‘just’ regional transitions to zero-carbon economies may, in fact, lie in a careful understanding of the potential to build on the specific historical context of the regions industrial development and capabilities.
    Keywords: coal transition, old industrial regions, regional development, regional innovation
    JEL: O38 R11
    Date: 2017–11
  36. By: Çi?dem Kaya (Istanbul Arel University); Göksel Ataman (Marmara University); Birsen Yener Ayd?n (Department of Management and Organization, Marmara University, Istanbul)
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between workplace ostracism and work engagement of the employees in the local governments and whether neuroticism, one of the personality traits, has a role on this relationship. Convenience sampling was used and data were obtained from a sample of 369 employees from two municipalities. The results show that there is a negative relationship between workplace ostracism and work engagement. Moreover, neuroticism moderates the negative relationship between workplace ostracism and work engagement. Overall, the results show that work engagement decreases as workplace ostracism increases, and highly neurotic employees are more negatively affected by workplace ostracism. Local governments may utilize the results in their efforts to create an environment fostering work engagement. Leaders may apply the study outcomes about the role of employee personality and workplace ostracism to improve their service performance.
    Keywords: Workplace ostracism, Work engagement, Neuroticism, Local governments
    JEL: M10 M12 M19
    Date: 2017–10
  37. By: Mace, Alan; Tewdwr-Jones, Mark
    Abstract: The focus of this article is the development of neighbourhood planning in England, in particular its guiding principle of local people as rational actors. The article looks at neighbourhood planning in its own terms; that is, it looks at the rationality of engagement in a new system that seeks to tip the balance of rationality in favour of communities following the UK government’s aims of overcoming local resistance to the development of new housing. While there is evidence that neighbourhood planning is enjoying some success this is a delicate settlement.
    Keywords: neighbourhood planning; institutional rational choice; London; community; governance.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–07–14
  38. By: James Bessen; Alessandro Nuvolari
    Abstract: The diffusion of innovations is supposed to dissipate inventors' rents. Yet in many documented cases, inventors freely shared knowledge with their competitors. Using a model and case studies, this paper explores why sharing did not eliminate inventors' incentives. Each new technology coexisted with an alternative for one or more decades. This allowed inventors to earn rents while sharing knowledge, attaining major productivity gains. The technology diffusion literature suggests that such circumstances are common during the early stages of a new technology.
    Keywords: technological change, technology diffusion, knowledge sharing, collective invention, patents
    Date: 2017–11–15
  39. By: Vigren , Andreas (VTI)
    Abstract: One of the factors differentiating operators the most in bus services is, arguably, the respective distances from their workplaces to the area of a procured contract. More dead running kilometers implies higher costs, and the same should affect operators’ probability to participate in tenders. As previous studies have discussed, this is a relevant competitive factor, but the transport literature lacks studies aiming to assess the size of this distance factor. This paper examines what impact operators’ distance to tendered bus contracts has on their probability to participate in the tender, and how this probability differs across operator types. To address this, an econometric analysis was undertaken using probit regressions with data on tendered Swedish bus contracts over the period 2007–2015 along with operator workplace data. The results show that operators’ distance from a contract has a significantly negative effect on their probability of placing a bid for the contract. While being located near the contract gives, on average, an over 90 percent probability of participating, being 10 kilometers away results in a 30 percent probability. The rival’s distance to the contract also has an effect, but only to a limited extent. Large operators are found to be less affected by their distance to a contract, and they are also more inclined to bid if the procuring authority offers a depot to use.
    Keywords: Competitive tendering; Distance; Dead running kilometers; Bus; Entry; Competition; Participation
    JEL: C35 H57 L11 L16 L91
    Date: 2017–11–14
  40. By: Uri Gneezy; John A. List; Jeffrey A. Livingston; Sally Sadoff; Xiangdong Qin; Yang Xu
    Abstract: Tests measuring and comparing educational achievement are an important policy tool. We experimentally show that offering students extrinsic incentives to put forth effort on such achievement tests has differential effects across cultures. Offering incentives to U.S. students, who generally perform poorly on assessments, improved performance substantially. In contrast, Shanghai students, who are top performers on assessments, were not affected by incentives. Our findings suggest that in the absence of extrinsic incentives, ranking countries based on low-stakes assessments is problematic because test scores reflect differences in intrinsic motivation to perform well on the test itself, and not just differences in ability.
    JEL: C93 I24
    Date: 2017–11
  41. By: Karle, Heiko; Peitz, Martin; Reisinger, Markus
    Abstract: For many products, platforms enable sellers to transact with buyers. We show that the competitive conditions among sellers shape the market structure in platform industries. If product market competition is tough, sellers avoid competitors by joining different platforms. This allows platforms to sustain high fees and explains why, for example, in some online markets, several homogeneous platforms segment the market. Instead, if product market competition is soft, agglomeration on a single platform emerges, and platforms fight for the dominant position. These insights give rise to novel predictions. For instance, market concentration and fees are negatively correlated in platform industries, which inverts the standard logic of competition.
    Keywords: intermediation , two-sided markets , market structure , price competition , endogenous segmentation
    JEL: L13 D43
    Date: 2017
  42. By: Oakley, Kate; Laurison, Daniel; O'Brien, Dave; Friedman, Sam
    Abstract: This paper looks at the degree to which spatial inequalities reinforce other forms of social inequality in cultural labour markets. It does so using the example of London, an acknowledged hub for the creative and cultural industries (CCIs). Using pooled data from 2013 - 2015 quarters of the UK Labour Force Survey we consider the social make-up of London’s cultural labour force, and reveal the extent to which, rather than acting as an ‘engine room’ of social mobility, London’s dominance in fact re-enforces social class disparities in cultural employment.
    Keywords: cultural labour; inequality; arts education; London
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2017–06–11
  43. By: Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Abstract: Input-output tables provide a rich source of information about the structure of economies that is not available from other frameworks. In addition to providing key information for the analysis of linkages between activities (and regions), the tables also provide the underlying core database used in a range of economic models. If used appropriately, these more sophisticated models can meaningfully assess the impact of economic change, at the national and regional levels. They can also be used to assess the distributional effects of change across the industries and regions included in the input-output table. When linked to household consumption and income data, the distributional effects of economic policy change on households can also be assessed. In what follows, we discuss some of the structural features of the Moroccan economy derived from the interregional input-output matrix for Morocco. The focus is on the role of the linkages embedded in the productive structure of the country and its implications for the design of regional policies.
    Date: 2017–10
  44. By: Kukić, Leonard
    Abstract: This paper analyses the patterns of regional growth and development in Yugoslavia, under the most decentralised socialist system that ever existed. My analysis reveals that despite government efforts to the contrary, socialist economic development in Yugoslavia resulted in divergence rather than in convergence between the constituent regions. I find that regional income divergence was caused by the failure of the less developed regions to converge towards the employment rates and total factor productivities of the more developed regions. I interpret these failures as symptoms of a single underlying problem: a capital intensity bias inherent to the governing objective of labour-managed firms. Socialist Yugoslavia moved from having one central plan, to having many mutually competitive plans. While on aggregate this may have created a net positive productivity outcome compared to other socialist economies, it created unique distortions. The decentralisation policies were implemented with the aim of enhancing regional cohesion and social stability. They led, however, to exactly opposite outcomes
    Keywords: economic growth; regional development; economic history: Yugoslavia; socialism
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–10
  45. By: Daniele Coen-Pirani (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: I study the effect of progressive income redistribution on human capital investment and welfare in a new dynamic model of migration. The model features an arbitrary number of labor markets and finitely-lived agents, yet it is analytically tractable. The model's key parameters are estimated using panel data on migration and wage growth from the PSID. The quantitative model is used to perform counterfactual analysis. A more progressive tax-transfer scheme is shown to reduce migration rates. This distortion to human capital investment induces the welfare-maximizing social planner to select a less progressive tax system than under exogenous geographic mobility.
    Date: 2017
  46. By: Bauer, Thomas K. (RWI); Giesecke, Matthias (RWI); Janisch, Laura (RWI)
    Abstract: We examine the long-run effects of forced migration from Eastern Europe into post-war Germany. Existing evidence suggests that displaced individuals are worse off economically, facing a considerably lower income and a higher unemployment risk than comparable natives even twenty years after being expelled. We extend this literature by investigating the relative performance of forced migrants across the entire life cycle. Using social security records that document the exact date of death and a proxy for pre-retirement lifetime earnings, we estimate a significantly and considerably higher mortality risk among forced migrants compared to native West-Germans. The adverse displacement effect persists throughout the earnings distribution except for the top quintile. Although forced migrants are generally worse off regarding mortality outcomes, those with successful labor market histories seem to overcome the long-lasting negative consequences of flight and expulsion.
    Keywords: forced migration, differential mortality, lifetime earnings, economic history
    JEL: I12 J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2017–10
  47. By: Parag A. Pathak; Peng Shi
    Abstract: Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out-of-sample performance is rarely assessed. This paper uses a large-scale policy change in Boston to investigate the performance of discrete choice models of school demand. In 2013, Boston Public Schools considered several new choice plans that differ in where applicants can apply. At the request of the mayor and district, we forecast the alternatives' effects by estimating discrete choice models. This work led to the adoption of a plan which significantly altered choice sets for thousands of applicants. Pathak and Shi (2014) update forecasts prior to the policy change and describe prediction targets involving access, travel, and unassigned students. Here, we assess how well these ex ante counterfactual predictions compare to actual outcome under the new choice sets. We find that a simple ad hoc model performs as well as the more complicated structural choice models for one of the two grades we examine. However, the structural models' inconsistent performance is largely due to prediction errors in applicant characteristics, which are auxiliary inputs. Once we condition on the actual applicant characteristics, the structural choice models outperform the ad hoc alternative in predicting both choice patterns and policy relevant outcomes. Moreover, refitting the models using the new choice data does not significantly improve their prediction accuracy, suggesting that the choice models are indeed “structural.” Our findings show that structural demand models can effectively predict counterfactual outcomes, as long there are accurate forecasts about auxiliary input variables.
    JEL: C10 C78 D12 I20
    Date: 2017–11
  48. By: Vigren, Andreas (VTI)
    Abstract: This paper examines how different factors relating to contract characteristics, and the operational and tender environment affect the number of unique bidders placing bids in tenders for bus contracts. A generalized Poisson model is used with a comprehensive data set containing most of the recently tendered bus contracts in Sweden, spanning the period 2007-2015. The main finding from the analysis is that most contract characteristics change participation in tenders by around 0.1-0.5 bidders. Operator-restricting measures, such as special requirements on buses, have a similar limited effect. Further, the number of tenders that are open at the same time as a specific tender was shown to reduce participation by almost 2 bidders. Finally, there is evidence that the local competitive environment is of importance, and the public transport authorities therefore need to be concerned with entry barriers in their tenders.
    Keywords: Tendering; Bidding; Bus; Public transport; Contract design; Count data
    JEL: C31 H57 L11 L16 L91
    Date: 2017–11–14
  49. By: Sakhanova, Mariia; Zyatchin, Andrey V.
    Abstract: Nowadays Russian railways make centralized decision about month loading plan for regional railroads in terms of cargo types, destination, types of rolling-stock subject to customersÙ orders. To implement centralized plan for a month regional railroads make local decision about daily loading. Such a plan should meet conditions of different nature: customersÙ needs, technological and season terms, and others. However, such a policy could lead to non-uniform delivery to a seaport. As a result it brings penalties if capacity of the port is not enough to elaborate cargo delivered. This research introduces improvements for centralized freight railroad transportation planning methods in the direction of port terminals. Theoretical result of the research is a method, based on a linear programming model. The method allows constructing such loading plan for railroad shipment to a seaport as to minimize penalties for cargo, which exceeds daily capacity of the seaport. Practical result corresponds to implementation of the method in the case of Russian railways.
    Keywords: supply chain management, operations management, Russia, railways, centralized plan,
    Date: 2016
  50. By: Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N.
    Abstract: Governments do not have perfect information regarding constituent priorities and needs. This lack of knowledge opens the door for groups to lobby in order to affect the government’s taxation levels. We examine the political economy of decentralized revenue-raising authority in light of social protection expenditures by constructing a theoretical model of hierarchical contests and comparing the implications of centralized with decentralized governance. Increasing information available to the government may generate additional expenditures by interest groups trying to affect government taxation decisions. We show the potential existence of a poverty trap as a result of decentralization in taxation decisions.
    Keywords: governance,decentralization,economic-models-of-political-processes,contests,rentseeking,intergovernmental-relations
    JEL: H77 D72 H73
    Date: 2017
  51. By: Vadim Voskresenskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ilya Musabirov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Daniel Alexandrov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with online communication of apartment buildings' residents on general purpose social networking site (SNS) VKontakte (VK), focusing on how groups' participants use instruments of SNS to separate place-based discussions and participation in wider community initiatives. With the help of topic modeling algorithm LDA, we analyzed posts collected from online groups related to apartment buildings in St. Petersburg to reveal differences in communication in open groups and restricted access groups. We also looked at overlaps between local groups of apartment buildings and city-wide movements. Our study shows that inside SNS there is a functional differentiation between restricted access groups and open groups, which have different audiences and communicative strategies. Restricted access (private) groups play an important role in the formation of neighbors' communities of trust and, supposedly, can be useful substitutes of face-to-face interaction for people moving into new buildings. Open (public) groups function as public forums for fostering neighbors' cooperation and attracting the attention of the broader public to local issues and conflicts
    Keywords: topic modeling, community-oriented social media, computational social science, web science, virtual communities
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2017
  52. By: Ajilore, Olugbenga
    Abstract: Events in Ferguson and Baltimore in the United States in the past 3 years have brought to light issues related to the militarization of police and adverse police–citizen interactions. Through federal programs and grants, local law enforcement agencies have been able to acquire surplus military items to combat terrorism and drug activity. The acquisition of these items has accelerated over the past 10 years. These agencies acquired nearly $1 billion worth of property in 2014 alone through the Pentagon’s 1033 Program, a program that distributes excess military surplus to law enforcement agencies. This study seeks to determine whether the increased acquisition of these items has led to more police use-of-force incidents. We create a dataset merging administrative data from the Pentagon’s 1033 Program database and survey data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Using a binary treatment effects estimator, we show that there is little evidence of a causal link between general military surplus acquisition and documented use-of-force incidents. In fact, the acquisition of military vehicles leads to fewer use-of-force incidents. The results also show that more diverse departments have fewer incidents, while agencies with SWAT team have more incidents.
    Keywords: Police Militarization, Excessive Force, Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS), 1033 Program, Treatment Effects
    JEL: H70 H76 K42
    Date: 2017–10–30

This nep-ure issue is ©2017 by Steve Ross. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.