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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Kaplan, Greg; Mitman, Kurt; Violante, Giovanni L. |
| Abstract: | We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obtain three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit constraints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; Credit Conditions; Expectations; foreclosures; great recession; home ownership; House Prices; leverage; Long-Term Mortgages; Rental Markets |
| JEL: | E21 E30 E40 E51 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12215&r=ure |
| By: | Hasan, Iftekhar; Hoi, Chun-Keung (Stan); Wu, Qiang; Zhang, Hao |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the levels of social capital in US counties, as captured by strength of civic norms and density of social networks in the counties, are systematically related to tax avoidance activities of corporations with headquarters located in the counties. We find strong negative associations between social capital and corporate tax avoidance, as captured by effective tax rates and book-tax differences. These results are incremental to the effects of local religiosity and firm culture toward socially-irresponsible activities. They are robust to using organ donation as an alternative social capital proxy and fixed effect regressions. They extend to aggressive tax avoidance practices. Additionally, we provide corroborating evidence using firms with headquarter relocation that changes the exposure to social capital. We conclude that social capital surrounding corporate headquarters provides environmental influences constraining corporate tax avoidance. |
| JEL: | A13 H26 M40 M41 Z13 |
| Date: | 2017–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_021&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Wiegand (VU Amsterdam); Eric Koomen (VU Amsterdam); Menno (M.) Pradhan (VU Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands); Christopher Edmonds (Tokyo International University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the impact of road development on household welfare in rural Papua New Guinea over the period between 1996 and 2010, using two cross-sectional household surveys and corresponding road maps. To deal with endogenous placement of road infrastructure programs we employ a correlated random effects model that corrects for location-specific changes in road quality. We also use a newly developed quantile regression method to investigate whether road works are pro-poor. Estimates show that investments in sealing roads to nearest towns led to higher consumption levels and housing quality, and to less reliance on subsistence farming. Effects are stronger among poor, less educated, and female-led households. |
| Keywords: | roads; infrastructure; impact evaluation; household welfare; developing country; Papua New Guinea |
| JEL: | H54 O18 |
| Date: | 2017–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170076&r=ure |
| By: | Adriaan (A.R.) Soetevent (University of Groningen, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands); Gert-Jan Romensen (University of Groningen, The Netherlands;) |
| Abstract: | How to engage workers in conservation efforts when the company pays the bill? In a field experiment with 409 bus drivers, we investigate the potential of targeted peer-comparison feedback and on-the-road coaching. Drivers receive individualized reports with peer-comparison messages on multiple driving dimensions. In addition, coaches quasi randomly provide drivers with in person coaching moments on the bus. Based on 800,000 trip-level observations, we find that the targeted peer-comparison treatments do not improve driving. On-the-road coaching significantly improves driving on multiple dimensions but only temporarily. Further analysis reveals negative interaction effects between the two programs. |
| Keywords: | peer comparisons; coaching; worker motivation; fuel conservation |
| JEL: | D2 M5 Q5 |
| Date: | 2017–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170073&r=ure |
| By: | Koster, Hans R.A.; Pasidis, Ilias; van Ommeren, Jos |
| Abstract: | Why do shops cluster in shopping streets? According to theory, retail firms benefit from shopping externalities. We identify these externalities for the main shopping streets in the Netherlands by estimating the effect of footfall - the number of pedestrians that pass by - on store owner's rental income, which is a composite of the effects of footfall on shop rent and on vacancy rates. We address endogeneity issues by exploiting spatial variation between intersecting streets. Our estimates imply an elasticity of rental income with respect to footfall of 0.25. We find that a shop's marginal benefit of a passing pedestrian is € 0.005. It follows that subsidies to retail firms that increase with the levels of footfall generated by these shops are welfare improving. The optimal subsidy to store owners is, on average, 10 percent of the rent, but is higher for retail firms that generate high levels of footfall. Although explicit subsidies are controversial and difficult to implement, our results seem to justify current policy practices which cluster shops by pedestrianisation of shopping streets or by providing subsidised parking for shoppers. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies; footfall.; rents; retail; shopping externalities; Vacancies |
| JEL: | R30 R33 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12216&r=ure |
| By: | Elizabeth Dhuey; David Figlio; Krzysztof Karbownik; Jeffrey Roth |
| Abstract: | We present evidence of a positive relationship between school starting age and children’s cognitive development from age 6 to 15 using a regression discontinuity design and large-scale population-level birth and school data from the state of Florida. We estimate effects of being relatively old for grade (being born in September versus August) that are remarkably stable – always just around 0.2 SD difference in test scores – across a wide range of heterogeneous groups, based on maternal education, poverty at birth, race/ethnicity, birth weight, gestational age, and school quality. While the September-August difference in kindergarten readiness is dramatically different by subgroup, by the time students take their first exams, the heterogeneity in estimated effects effectively disappears. We document substantial variation in compensatory behaviors targeted towards young for grade children. While the more affluent families tend to redshirt their children, young for grade children from less affluent families are more likely to be retained in grades prior to testing. School district practices regarding retention and redshirting are correlated with improved outcomes for the groups less likely to use those remediation approaches (i.e., retention in the case of more-affluent families and redshirting in the case of less-affluent families.) We also study college and juvenile detention outcomes using administrative data from a large Florida school district, and show that being an older age at school entry increases children’s college attainment and reduces the likelihood of being incarcerated for juvenile crime. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23660&r=ure |
| By: | Ruth Lupton; Stephanie Thomson |
| Keywords: | School, Social, segregation, Academies, FSM, Manchester, reforms |
| JEL: | I2 I3 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:spccwp:24&r=ure |
| By: | Scott R. Baker; Stephanie Johnson; Lorenz Kueng |
| Abstract: | Using comprehensive high-frequency state and local sales tax data, we show that household spending responds strongly to changes in sales tax rates. Even though sales taxes are not observed in posted prices and have a wide range of rates and exemptions, households adjust in many dimensions, stocking up on storable goods before taxes rise and increasing online and cross-border shopping. Interestingly, households adjust spending similarly for both taxable and tax-exempt goods. We embed an inventory problem into a continuous-time consumption-savings model and demonstrate that this seemingly irrational behavior is optimal in the presence of shopping trip fixed costs. The model successfully matches estimated short-run and long-run tax elasticities with a reasonable implied reservation wage of $7-10. We provide additional empirical evidence in favor of this new shopping-complementarity mechanism. While our results reject non-salience of sales tax changes, on average, we also show that upcoming tax changes that are more salient prompt larger responses. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23665&r=ure |
| By: | Levon Barseghyan; Stephen Coate |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a dynamic political economy model of community development. In each period, a community invests in a local public good. The community can grow, with new housing supplied by competitive developers. To finance investment, the community can tax residents and issue debt. In each period, fiscal decisions are made by current residents. The community's initial wealth (the value of its stock of public good less its debt) determines how it develops. High initial wealth leads to rapid development. Low initial wealth leads to gradual development that is fueled by community wealth accumulation. Wealth accumulation arises from the desire to attract more households to share the costs of the public good. The long run size of the community can be too large or too small and development may proceed too slowly. Nonetheless, some development occurs and, at all times, public good provision is efficient. |
| JEL: | H41 H7 H72 H74 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23674&r=ure |
| By: | Miguel Flores; Alexander Patt; Jens Ruhose; Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | We present the first evidence that international emigrant selection on education and earnings materializes through occupational skills. Combining novel data from a representative Mexican task survey with rich individual-level worker data, we find that Mexican migrants to the United States have higher manual skills and lower cognitive skills than non-migrants. Conditional on occupational skills, education and earnings no longer predict migration decisions. Differential labor-market returns to occupational skills explain the observed selection pattern and significantly outperform previously used returns-to-skills measures in predicting migration. Results are persistent over time and hold within narrowly defined regional, sectoral, and occupational labor markets. |
| Keywords: | occupational skills, emigrant selection |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:84a&r=ure |
| By: | Hollanders, David (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | In this article I argue that (1) a house is a substitute for pension savings at the individual level; (2) housing wealth is not wealth on the aggregate level; (3) ageing is not the main problem for pension systems, instead it is financialisation; and (4) policies that link pensions and housing may serve financial actors. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:101cb77f-ea9c-47bc-930d-03b63dfe4f5c&r=ure |
| By: | Bensassi, Sami; Jabbour, Liza |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of return migration on the performance of Egyptian household firms. A growing body of evidence suggests that return migrants are more likely to become and remain entrepreneurs (Marchetta, 2012; Wahba and Zenou, 2012). The length of the miration spell, the experience and the capital accumulated overseas may influence the ability of return migrants to establish and successfully manage their firms. We expand this literature by examining the impact of return migrants on the revenue of the business units they manage. We control for several layers of selection bias, from the migration decision to the pursuit of entrepreneurial activities. Our findings suggest that two determinants of firms' revenues favour return migrants: larger starting capital and the experience accumulated abroad. These results suggest that economic policies directed at attracting return migrants should consider expanding support schemes formerly limited to the most educated migrants or to some sectors of activity as the positive impact of return migration on entrepreneurial revenues is widespread. |
| Keywords: | Return Migration,Household firms |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:98&r=ure |
| By: | TAE-HWAN KIM (Yonsei University); HOON HONG (Yonsei University); JONGHYUN PARK (Gyeongnam National University of Science and Technology); CHUNG SIK YOO (Yonsei University); JONGICK JANG (Hanshin University) |
| Abstract: | It is well known that measuring the non-economic outcomes produced by social economy organizations is fairly difficult and complex. Usually, social economy organizations feature participatory and democratic decision-making processes that help create social capital and relational goods, and they are interested in social integration; accordingly, they tend to create an organizational culture that encourages their workers to contribute to local communities. Therefore, the hypothesis that increased activities of social economy organizations have a causal effect on the subjective well-being of people living near those organizations is highly plausible. In this paper, we estimate the causal effect and attempt to statistically test the hypothesis using a dataset called the ¡°Seoul Survey,¡± which provides observations on the level of subjective well-being of 45,496 citizens living in Seoul and the size of social economy organizations. Controlling for variables in district level and the appropriate socio-economic characteristics of each individual in the dataset, it is found that the size of social organizations is highly significant. This empirical result remains with a causality test using a dummy variable regarding recognition on social economy. |
| Keywords: | Social economy, Collective externalities effect, Subjective well-being, Happiness |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2017rwp-104&r=ure |
| By: | Paul Cheshire; Stephen Gibbons; Jemma Mouland |
| Abstract: | Objectives: To test whether a social landlord can improve health outcomes for older tenants and reduce their NHS usage by simple interventions. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Social housing in five London Boroughs. Participants: 547 individuals over 50 years of age. Intervention: Baseline and two follow-up assessments of individual's health and use of medical services undertaken by health professionals. In the treated groups, individuals were given health care and support at two different levels. 25 individuals had to be removed from the trial because early assessments revealed critical and untreated health issues. Main outcome measures: Self-reported health and wellbeing ratings and NHS usage. Conclusions: Even simple interventions to a targeted group (older and poorer people), can produce significant reductions in NHS usage. Significant reductions were found for 1) planned hospital usage; 2) nights in hospital; and 3) for emergency GP usage. Well-being scores improved in the most strongly treated group but these were not statistically significant. Perhaps the single most important finding was that the early health evaluations revealed that 4.5% of the total sample - not in the most deprived section of the population - had such severe health problems that significant and immediate intervention was required. |
| Keywords: | randomised control trial, social housing, health interventions |
| JEL: | I18 C93 R29 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0219&r=ure |
| By: | Porzio, Tommaso; Santangelo, Gabriella |
| Abstract: | What explains labor reallocation out of agriculture? We propose an accounting framework that leverages observable variation across birth cohorts to study the role of human capital accumulation. We model a dynamic overlapping generations economy where heterogeneous individuals choose whether to stay in or move out of agriculture, subject to mobility frictions. The model shows analytically that labor reallocation within- and across-cohorts pins down the relative role of human capital vs. sectoral prices/productivities in labor reallocation. We apply the framework to micro data from 52 countries. We document novel empirical patterns on labor reallocation by cohort and use them, through the lens of our model, to discipline the size of mobility frictions and show two results: (i) human capital explains one third of labor reallocation, on average; but (ii) it has a minor role in explaining why some countries have faster reallocation than others. Furthermore, we use years of schooling as a direct measure of human capital to validate our main approach and we exploit a large-scale school construction program in Indonesia as a natural experiment to study the effects of an exogenous increase in human capital. We show that the program led to labor reallocation out of agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Human Capital, Structural Change, Agriculture, Development, Schooling |
| Date: | 2017–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt1ws4x2fg&r=ure |
| By: | Cho, Cheol-Joo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, two migratory impact-assessment schemes are constructed within the framework of Ghoshian and Leontief input-output analysis. These schemes are designed to estimate the rural-to-urban migration-induced and the urban-to-rural migration-induced effects on interurban migration, where the former effect is termed the replacement effect, while the latter the attraction effect. The established input-output schemes are empirically applied to the 2012 data on interregional migration in Korea. The results show that an arrival of migrants to and/or a departure of residents from the 20 largest cities in Korea induce direct and indirect ripples of population flow between those cities. A combination of the displacement and the attraction effects yields a classification of cities by which the 20 largest cities are grouped into four different types. |
| Keywords: | interregional migration,displacement effect,attraction effect,input-output schemes,classification of cities,largest cities in Korea |
| JEL: | D57 R15 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201749&r=ure |
| By: | Paolo Zeppini; Evangelos Evangelou; Emanuele Pugliese; Lorenzo Napolitano; Graham Room |
| Abstract: | We search an autocatalytic structure in networks of technological fields and evaluate its significance for technological change. To this aim we define a technology network based on the International Patents Classification, and we study if autocatalytic structures in the network foster innovation as measured by the rate of production of patents. The network is identified through patenting activity of geographical regions in different technology fields. Through our analysis we show how the technological landscape of the patents database evolves as a self-organising autocatalytic structure that grows in size, and arrives to cover the most part of the technology network. Technology classes in the core of the autocatalytic structure perform better in terms of their innovativeness, as measured by the rate of growth of the number of patents. Finally, the links between classes that define the autocatalytic structure of the technology network break the hierarchical structure of the database, and indicate that recombinant innovation and its autocatalytic patterns are an important stylised fact of technological change. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1708.03511&r=ure |
| By: | Taasim, Shairil; yusoff, remali |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relations between passenger movement handled by Malaysia airports and economic growth per capita from 1990 to 2015 by using co-integration approach, Granger causality and vector autoregression (VAR) model. By applying time series analysis, we explored whether the two variables lead each other to Malaysia’s economic growth. The result showed that both variables integrated to enhance Malaysia’s economic performance. |
| Keywords: | Granger, Airports, Co-Integration, GDP per capita |
| JEL: | O2 O21 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80733&r=ure |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | The world is experiencing the second largest refugee crisis in a century, and one of the major points of contention involves the possible adverse effects of incoming refugees on host communities. We examine the effects of a large refugee influx into Florida public schools following the Haitian earthquake of 2010 using unique matched birth and schooling records. We find precise zero estimated effects of refugees on the educational outcomes of incumbent students in the year of the earthquake or in the two years that follow, regardless of the socioeconomic status, grade level, ethnicity, or birthplace of incumbent students. |
| JEL: | I20 J10 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23661&r=ure |