nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2017‒05‒21
fifty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Spatial Reorganization in Urban Redevelopment: Evidence from an Earthquake in a Metropolitan Area By Xu, Hangtian
  2. Alternative Approaches for Resale Housing Price Indexes By Burnett-Isaacs,, Kate; Diewert, Erwin; Huang, Ning
  3. The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data By Leah Platt Boustan; Matthew E. Kahn; Paul W. Rhode; Maria Lucia Yanguas
  4. International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ekrame Boubtane; Dramane Coulibaly
  5. Competition among schools and educational quality: Tension between various objectives of educational policy By Felipe Gajardo; Nicolas Grau
  6. Capital requirements, risk shifting and the mortgage market By Uluc, Arzu; Wieladek, Tomasz
  7. The impact of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to value ratios By Andrés Alegría; Rodrigo Alfaro; Felipe Córdova
  8. Not in my Community: Social Pressure and the Geography of Dismissals By Andrea Bassanini; Giorgio Brunello; Eve Caroli
  9. Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market By Denis Gorea; Virgiliu Midrigan
  10. Cities, towns, and poverty: migration equilibrium and income distribution in a todaro-type model with mulitiple destinations By Luc Christiaensen; Joachim De Weerdt; Ravi Kanbur
  11. Local labour market heterogeneity in Italy: estimates and simulations using responses to labour demand shocks By Emanuele Ciani; Francesco David; Guido de Blasio
  12. Generating a located synthetic population of individuals, households, and dwellings By ANTONI Jean-Philippe; VUIDEL Gilles; KLEIN Olivier
  13. Market Power and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Market for Higher Education By Dennis Epple; Richard Romano; Sinan Sarpça; Holger Sieg; Melanie Zaber
  14. Decomposing Ethnic Differences in University Acedemic Achievement in New Zealand By Zhaoyi Cao; Tim Maloney
  15. Crisis and Reorganization in Urban Dynamics: The Barcelona Case Study By Balanzó, Rafael de; Rodríguez-Planas, Núria
  16. Consumer Loan Response to Permanent Labor Income Shocks: Evidence from a Major Minimum Wage Increase By Guney, Ibrahim Ethem; Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim; Tumen, Semih
  17. Does Reducing Unemployment Benefits During a Recession Reduce Youth Unemployment? Evidence from a 50% Cut in Unemployment Assistance By Doris, Aedin; O'Neill, Donal; Sweetman, Olive
  18. Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios By Bachmann, Rüdiger; Rueth, Sebastian
  19. Trends in commercial real estate: remarks at the Risk Management for Commercial Real Estate Financial Markets Conference, New York University Stern School of Business, New York, New York, May 9, 2017 By Rosengren, Eric S.
  20. Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model By Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike
  21. What determines Chinaís housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE-VAR By Liu, Chunping; Ou, Zhirong
  22. Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education By Biroli, Pietro; Del Boca, Daniela; Heckman, James J.; Heckman, Lynne Pettler; Koh, Yu Kyung; Kuperman, Sylvi; Moktan, Sidharth; Pronzato, Chiara D.; Ziff, Anna
  23. Are Central Cities Poor and Non-White? By Jenny Schuetz; Arturo Gonzalez; Jeff Larrimore; Ellen A. Merry; Barbara J. Robles
  24. College Admission and High School Integration By Fernanda Estevan; Thomas Gall; Patrick Legros
  25. The Role of Informal Urban Settlements in Upward Mobility By Ivan Turok; Josh Budlender; Justin Visagie
  26. Decentralized Local Pricing – Improving Network Usage in a Smart-Grid Environment under Limited Informationation By Jessica Raasch; Christoph Weber
  27. The Role of Universities in Economic Development of Russian Regions By Alexey A. Egorov; Oleg V. Leshukov; Alexander D. Gromov
  28. An Assessment of the Community Mortgage Program Implementation Strategy By Ballesteros, Marife M.; Magtibay, Jasmine E.; Ramos, Tatum P.
  29. The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in Canada By Jason Allen; Timothy Grieder; Tom Roberts; Brian Peterson
  30. Explaining ethnic disparities in bachelor’s degree participation: Evidence from NZ By Lisa Meehan; Gail Pacheco; Zoe Pushon
  31. Stealing to Survive : Crime and Income Shocks in 19th Century France By Vincent Bignon; Eve Caroli; Roberto Galbiati
  32. Investing in Public Infrastructure; Roads or Schools? By Manoj Atolia; Bin Grace Li; Ricardo Marto; Giovanni Melina
  33. The Importance of Infrastructure By Harker, Patrick T.
  34. Job-related Mobility and Plant Performance in Sweden By Eriksson, Rikard; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  35. Cruise Shipping and Urban Development: The Case of Dublin By ITF
  36. Local Crowding Out in China By Yi Huang; Marco Pagano; Ugo Panizza
  37. Does a Modest Stipend Encourage Girls to Attend School beyond the 5th Class: Evidence from the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan? By Musharraf Cyan; Michael Price; Mark Rider; Stephanie J. Roberts
  38. A degree-distance-based connections model with negative and positive externalities By Philipp Moehlmeier; Agnieszka Rusinowska; Emily Tanimura
  39. Does Inter-firm Collaboration Network Improve Quality of Innovation? International comparative analysis from worldwide patent data (Japanese) By IINO Takashi; INOUE Hiroyasu; SAITO Yukiko; TODO Yasuyuki
  40. Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases By Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Dmitri Koustas
  41. Foreign Peer Effects and STEM Major Choice By Anelli, Massimo; Shih, Kevin Y.; Williams, Kevin
  42. Up from Slavery? African American Intergenerational Economic Mobility Since 1880 By William J. Collins; Marianne H. Wanamaker
  43. Spotlight on the beneficiaries of EU regional funds: A new firm-level dataset By Bachtrögler, Julia; Hammer, Christoph; Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Schwendinger, Florian
  44. "Transition of Spatial Distribution of Human Capital in Japan" By Yasuhiro Sato; Masaaki Toma
  45. The local effects of an innovation: Evidence from the French fish market By Laurent Gobillon; Wolff Francois Charles
  46. Why Adopt a Federal Constitution? And why Decentralize? – Determinants Based on a New Dataset By Gutmann, Jerg; Voigt, Stefan
  47. Regimes of the Russian–Swedish Border in the Novgorod Lands By Adrian Selin; Kuzma Kukushkin; Ivan Sablin; Elena Kocheryagina
  48. The Socio-Economic Determinants of Crime in South Africa: An Empirical Assessment By Haroon Bhorat; Adaiah Lilenstein; Jabulile Monnakgotla; Amy Thornton
  49. Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design By Gehrsitz, Markus
  50. Immigration and Innovation: Evidence from Canadian Cities By Blit, Joel; Skuterud, Mikal; Zhang, Jue
  51. Teaching the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model By Joseph DeSalvo

  1. By: Xu, Hangtian
    Abstract: This study provides a new lens to look at urban redevelopment by focusing on the spatial reorganization within the redeveloped area. We begin by presenting a toy model of residents’ locational choice within a Metropolitan Area, which links crowded housing and market accessibility. A key ingredient in our model is the change in the location’s population bearing capacity before and after the redevelopment. Dense and high market accessibility locations stagnated due to crowded housing before the redevelopment, allowing for the expansion of less dense and low market accessibility locations. Redevelopment increased the land-use efficiency and relieved dense locations from crowded housing, allowing them to be denser and enter into a new phase of growth, at the cost of less dense locations. The urban spatial structure is thus reorganized. We then document substantial variation in population growth across locations within a Metropolitan Area of Japan, which underwent intensive redevelopment due to a seismic earthquake. Using the variation of pre- and post-redevelopment periods, as well as dense and less dense locations, in population growth, we find strong empirical support for the model’s predictions. Our results imply that urban redevelopment may be an appropriate strategy for developers to improve the spatial structure of a city, which is much needed for mega-cities.
    Keywords: natural disaster; urban redevelopment; spatial organization
    JEL: O18 R12 R23
    Date: 2017–05–01
  2. By: Burnett-Isaacs,, Kate; Diewert, Erwin; Huang, Ning
    Abstract: The use of hedonic regression models on the sales of detached housing units is widespread in the real estate literature. However, these models do not address the need to decompose the sale price into structure and land components. In the international System of National Accounts, it is necessary to obtain separate estimates for the price and quantity of housing structures and the land that these structures sit on. The builder’s model accomplishes this decomposition but it has only been applied to Dutch and Japanese data. The paper will apply the builder’s model to data on sales of detached houses in Richmond, British Columbia to test the robustness of the model. The property price indexes generated by the builder’s model are also compared to the corresponding indexes generated by a traditional time product dummy hedonic regression model. The implied structure depreciation rates generated by both models are also compared. We find that if a sufficient number of housing characteristics are included in the hedonic regressions, the two approaches generate similar overall property price indexes and similar geometric depreciation rates. However, the two approaches do not generate similar land and structure subindexes.
    Keywords: House price indexes, land and structure price indexes, hedonic regressions, net depreciation rates, System of National Accounts, the Builder’s Model
    JEL: C2 C23 C43 E31 R21
    Date: 2017–05–08
  3. By: Leah Platt Boustan; Matthew E. Kahn; Paul W. Rhode; Maria Lucia Yanguas
    Abstract: Major natural disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy cause numerous fatalities, and destroy property and infrastructure. In any year, the U.S experiences dozens of smaller natural disasters as well. We construct a 90 year panel data set that includes the universe of natural disasters in the United States from 1920 to 2010. By exploiting spatial and temporal variation, we study how these shocks affected migration rates, home prices and local poverty rates. The most severe disasters increase out migration rates and lower housing prices, especially in areas at particular risk of disaster activity, but milder disasters have little effect.
    JEL: N42 Q5 R23
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Hippolyte d'Albis; Ekrame Boubtane; Dramane Coulibaly
    Abstract: This article examines the causal relations between immigration and the characteristics of the housing market in host regions. We constructed a unique database from administrative records and used it to assess annual migration ows into France's 22 administrative regions from 1990 to 2013. We then estimated various panel VAR models,taking into account GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as the main regional economic indicators. We find that immigration has no significant effect on property prices, but that higher property prices significantly reduce immigration rates. We also find no significant relationship between immigration and social housing supply.
    Keywords: Immigration, Property Prices, Social Housing, Panel VAR.
    JEL: E20 F22 J61
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Felipe Gajardo; Nicolas Grau
    Abstract: Using Chilean data for fourth grade students, this research studies the effect of competition among schools on the results of standardized tests, academic self-esteem and motivation, the climate within the school, civic participation and training, and healthy lifestyle habits. In order to address the potential bias due to the endogeneity of the competition among schools, an instrumental variable approach is implemented, using instruments associated with the size of each “educational market.” The results show that an increase of one standard deviation in competition among schools generates a moderate increase in standardized test results (0.06 standard deviations) and a more significant decrease in the other indicators of quality (between 0.02 and 0.16 standard deviations). Therefore, the results suggest a tension in the school between various objectives of educational policy, in which pressure to improve standardized test scores resulting from competition among schools could produce an undesired effect of deterioration in other dimensions of quality.
    Date: 2017–05
  6. By: Uluc, Arzu; Wieladek, Tomasz
    Abstract: We study the effect of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on mortgage loan supply with a new loan-level dataset containing all mortgages issued in the UK between 2005Q2 and 2007Q2. We find that a rise of a 100 basis points in capital requirements leads to a 5.4% decline in individual loan size by bank. Loans issued by competing banks rise by roughly the same amount, which is indicative of credit substitution. Borrowers with an impaired credit history (verified income) are not (most) affected. This is consistent with origination of riskier loans to grow capital by raising retained earnings. No evidence for credit substitution of non-bank finance companies is found. JEL Classification: G21, G28
    Keywords: capital requirements, credit substitution, loan-level data, mortgage market
    Date: 2017–05
  7. By: Andrés Alegría; Rodrigo Alfaro; Felipe Córdova
    Abstract: This paper shows how central bank communications can play a role in macroprudential supervision. We document how specific warnings about real estate markets, published in the Central Bank of Chile's Financial Stability Reports of 2012, affected bank lending policies. We provide empirical evidence of a rebalancing in the characteristics of mortgage loans granted, with a reduction in the number of mortgage loans with high loan-to-value ratios (LTV), along with an increase in loans with lower LTV ratios.
    Keywords: macroprudential policy, LTV ratios, central bank communications
    Date: 2017–05
  8. By: Andrea Bassanini (IZA - Institute for the study of labor - Institute for the Study of Labor - IZA, OECD - Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development); Giorgio Brunello (Université de Padoue - Université de Padoue, IZA - Institute for the study of labor - Institute for the Study of Labor - IZA); Eve Caroli (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, IZA - Institute for the study of labor - Institute for the Study of Labor - IZA)
    Abstract: There is growing evidence that social pressure shapes firms' behavior. Given how sensitive communitiesare to downsizing, this suggests that firms are likely to be under strong social pressure when considering reducing employment. Using French linked employer-employee data, we show that social pressure induces firms torefrain from dismissing at short distance from their headquarters. More specifically, we find that, within firms, secondary establishments located further away fromheadquarters have higher dismissal rates than thoselocated closer, taking into account the possible endogeneity of plant location. We also find that the positive effect of distance on dismissals increases with the visibility of the firm in the local community of its headquarters. This effect is also stronger the greater the degree of selfishness of the community in which the headquarters are located. This suggests that local social pressure at headquarters is a key determinant of the positiverelationship between distance to headquarters and dismissals. We show that our results cannot be entirely accounted for by alternative explanations of the distance-dismissal relationship that are put forward in the literature.
    Keywords: Personnel Management,Labor Demand,social pressure,employment policies
    Date: 2017–04–21
  9. By: Denis Gorea; Virgiliu Midrigan
    Abstract: We study the severity of liquidity constraints in the U.S. housing market using a life-cycle model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risks in which houses are illiquid, but agents have the option to refinance their long-term mortgages or obtain home equity loans. The model reproduces well the distribution of individual-level balance sheets – the fraction of housing, mortgage debt and liquid assets in households' wealth, the fraction of hand-to-mouth homeowners (Kaplan and Violante, 2014), as well as the frequency of housing turnover and home equity extraction in the 2001 data. The model implies that 75% of homeowners are liquidity constrained and willing to pay an average of 8 cents to extract an additional dollar of liquidity from their home. Liquidity constraints imply sizable welfare losses equivalent to a 1.2% permanent reduction in consumption.
    JEL: E21 E30
    Date: 2017–04
  10. By: Luc Christiaensen; Joachim De Weerdt; Ravi Kanbur
    Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question we extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. We first derive conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. We then address the policy question and show how the answer depends on the migration response, where the poverty line lies relative to incomes in the three locations, and at times also the poverty index itself. In particular, we develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters and illustrate the empirical remit of the model with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs. Overall, the findings confirm that, given migration responses, national poverty outcomes are not immune to whether urban employment generation takes place in the towns or the city.
    Keywords: Secondary towns versus big cities, Poverty reduction, Poverty gradient, Todaro model, Migration equilibrium, Equilibrium income distribution
    Date: 2017–04
  11. By: Emanuele Ciani (Bank of Italy); Francesco David (Bank of Italy); Guido de Blasio (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Using different data sources from local labour markets (LLMs) in Italy between 1971 and 2011, we document a number of stylized facts: a) local differences in the ratios of private employment to population are highly persistent; b) the population has a limited reaction to labour demand shocks, consistent with the high rigidity of nominal wages and pro-cyclical variations in rents, which absorb the gains (losses) from higher (lower) employment rates; c) labour demand shocks are fairly persistent and unevenly distributed, to the detriment of those areas that were already lagging behind and boosting the more advanced ones; d) shocks are amplified by the non-linear employment adjustment, which reacts more to negative shocks than to positive ones. The estimated reactions to shocks are then used to perform policy-motivated simulations. We find that allowing greater population reactions is a superior policy option. Had Italy experienced the population reactivity of the US, local disparities would have been significantly less, to the same extent as with a sizeable public intervention in areas lagging behind.
    Keywords: local labour markets, labour demand, shocks.
    JEL: J23 J61 R23
    Date: 2017–04
  12. By: ANTONI Jean-Philippe; VUIDEL Gilles; KLEIN Olivier
    Abstract: Some of the new approaches in urban modeling, such as multi-agent systems (MAS) or activity-based models (ABM), require inputs in the form of disaggregated individual data. But for privacy protection reasons, such data is seldom available at this level. One way to get around this obstacle is to generate a synthetic population. This paper presents a method for generating a population from fully aggregated socio-demographic and geographic data. Based on French examples, this method can be reproduced anywhere in the country providing a relevant linkage between the characteristics of agents and those of urban spaces. The proposed method is subdivided into two steps. First, a population of agents belonging to households, as well as of households ascribed to housing units, is generated from the socio-demographic data. Second, this population is located by assignment to the buildings generated from the geographic data. Testing and validating the method on three French cities (Besançon, Strasbourg and Lille) generates useful results but also some difficulties, particularly for certain population categories. Ultimately, we obtain a realistic three-dimensional database of the study area where agents and spaces are represented and realistic individual information can be mapped and used to model the behavior of agents through MASs or ABMs.
    Keywords: Multi-agent systems; Agent-based modeling; Microdata; Synthetic population; Agent/space framework
    Date: 2017–05
  13. By: Dennis Epple; Richard Romano; Sinan Sarpça; Holger Sieg; Melanie Zaber
    Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to estimate an equilibrium model of private and public school competition that can generate realistic pricing patterns for private universities in the U.S. We show that the parameters of the model are identified and can be estimated using a semi-parametric estimator given data from the NPSAS. We find substantial price discrimination within colleges. We estimate that a $10,000 increase in family income increases tuition at private schools by on average $210 to $510. A one standard deviation increase in ability decreases tuition by approximately $920 to $1,960 depending on the selectivity of the college. Discounts for minority students range between $110 and $5,750.
    JEL: H52 I2 L3
    Date: 2017–04
  14. By: Zhaoyi Cao; Tim Maloney (School of Economics, Faculty of Business, Economics, and Law, Auckland Univeristy of Technology)
    Abstract: We use individual-level administrative data to examine the extent and potential explanations for the poorer academic performance of three ethnic minority groups in their first year of study at a New Zealand university. Substantial differences in course completion rates and letter grades are found for Māori, Pasifika and Asian students relative to their European counterparts. These large and significant gaps persist in the face of alternative definitions of ethnicity and sample restrictions. We use regression analysis and formal decomposition techniques to test whether differences in other personal characteristics, high school backgrounds and university enrollment patterns might account for these ethnic disparities in early academic achievement. We estimate that no more than one-quarter of the relatively poorer performance of Māori and Pasifika students would be eliminated if they had the same relevant observable factors of European students. These substantial unexplained ethnic differences in early academic performance at university raise concerns about appropriate policies to close ethnic gaps in academic achievement at university.
    Keywords: Higher Education; University Academic Achievement; Ethnic Differences or Disparities; Decomposition Techniques; New Zealand
    Date: 2017–02
  15. By: Balanzó, Rafael de (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)); Rodríguez-Planas, Núria (Queens College, CUNY)
    Abstract: We use the adaptive cycle theory to improve our understanding of cycles of urban change in the city of Barcelona from 1953 to present. Most specifically, we explore the vulnerabilities and windows of opportunity these cycles for change introduced in the release (Ω) and reorganization (α) phases. In the two recurring cycles of urban change analyzed (before and after 1979), we observe two complementary loops. During the front-loop, financial and natural resources are efficiently exploited by homogenous dominant groups (private developers, the bourgeoisie, politicians or technocrats) with the objective to promote capital accumulation based on private (or private-public partnership) investments. In contrast, the back-loop emerges from Barcelona's heterogeneous urban social movements (neighborhood associations, activists, squatters, cooperatives and NGOs), whose objectives are diverse but converge in their discontent with the status-quo of conservation (the K phase) and their desire for a "common good" that includes social justice, social cohesion, participatory governance, and wellbeing for all. The heterogeneity of these social networks (shadow groups) fosters learning and social innovation and gives them the flexibility that the front-loop's dominant groups lack to trigger change not only within but also across spatial scale (local community-based, neighborhood, city) and time dimensions, promoting a cross-scale process of revolt and stabilization, also known as Panarchy.
    Keywords: adaptive cycle theory, crisis, urban change dynamics, urban resilience, social innovation, social justice, release (Ω) and reorganization (α) phases, back-loop, Barcelona's urban planning, Barcelona's urban (sustainable) design era and panarchy
    JEL: Q01 Q57 R0
    Date: 2017–04
  16. By: Guney, Ibrahim Ethem (Central Bank of Turkey); Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (Central Bank of Turkey)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase, which became effective in January 2016, on consumer loans in Turkey. Using bank-level data and designing an original identification strategy, we ask whether the loans provided by banks with a historically high share of low-wage loan customers have increased relative to those provided by banks with a historically low share of low-wage loan customers after January 2016. Our results suggest that consumer loan flows have displayed a limited but statistically and economically meaningful increase following the minimum wage hike. This increase mostly comes from the increase in long-term general-purpose loans. Vehicle loans have also increased, while there is no change in housing loans. In the overall, the minimum wage hike has generated a moderate and transitory increase in the flow of consumer loans extended to low-wage earners in Turkey – perhaps due to delayed consumption effect. Consumption of durables, which can further increase household borrowing capacity through collateralized debt channel, has only slightly and temporarily increased. The underlying long-term trends in the stock of consumer loans have hardly changed.
    Keywords: consumer loans, labor income shocks, minimum wages, triple difference
    JEL: D14 E24 G21 J31
    Date: 2017–04
  17. By: Doris, Aedin (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); O'Neill, Donal (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); Sweetman, Olive (National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
    Abstract: We use administrative data to examine the effect of a 50% benefit cut for young unemployed workers in Ireland during the Great Recession. Because the cut applied only to new benefit claims, claimants whose unemployment start dates differed by a matter of days received very different benefits; we exploit this fact in our Regression Discontinuity and Difference-in-Difference analyses. While we find no impact on unemployment duration for those aged 20–21, the benefit cut significantly reduced duration for 18 year olds, with an estimated elasticity close to one. We consider possible explanations for our findings and also examine long-run effects.
    Keywords: unemployment assistance, labour supply, regression discontinuity
    JEL: J64
    Date: 2017–04
  18. By: Bachmann, Rüdiger; Rueth, Sebastian
    Abstract: What are the macroeconomic consequences of changing aggregate lending standards in residential mortgage markets, as measured by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios? In a structural VAR, GDP and business investment increase following an expansionary LTV shock. Residential investment, by contrast, falls, a result that depends on the systematic reaction of monetary policy. We show that, historically, the Fed tended to respond directly to expansionary LTV shocks by raising the monetary policy instrument, and, as a result, mortgage rates increase and residential investment declines. The monetary policy reaction function in the US appears to include lending standards in residential markets, a finding we confirm in Taylor rule estimations. Without the endogenous monetary policy reaction residential investment increases. House prices and household (mortgage) debt behave in a similar way. This suggests that an exogenous loosening of LTV ratios is unlikely to explain booms in residential investment and house prices, or run ups in household leverage, at least in times of conventional monetary policy.
    Keywords: Cholesky identification; loan-to-value ratios; monetary policy; residential investment; structural VAR; Taylor rules
    JEL: E30 E32 E44 E52
    Date: 2017–05
  19. By: Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
    Abstract: Speaking in New York, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren discussed commercial real estate valuations. While a variety of favorable conditions account for some of the elevated valuations, he noted that at such times it is worth asking what could go wrong and cause a reversal.
    Date: 2017–05–09
  20. By: Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike
    Abstract: This paper introduces the rationale and the articles in this special issue bridging the literature on regional development and the triple helix model. The concept of the triple helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with especial regard to regional economic development founded on innovation and research activities. The discussion on regional competitiveness lays the foundations for the exploration of contrasting environments, sectors and administrations. We offer a framework that captures the array of institutions, driving factors, players and powers active at the regional level. In this introduction we present and summarise the collection of articles emphasising their contribution to the literature. We demonstrate how the articles in this selection exploit the triple helix model for analysis of the delivery of policy at a regional level, and describe how other models and characterisations of interactions and collaborations between institutions are being associated with the triple helix concept, highlighting their shortcomings and the way they enrich its application.
    Keywords: triple helix; innovation; regional governance; public policy; regional economic development
    JEL: H7 P5
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Liu, Chunping (Nottingham Trent University); Ou, Zhirong (Cardiff Business School)
    Abstract: We investigate what determines Chinaís housing price dynamics using a DSGE-VAR estimated with priors allowing for the featured operating of normal and ëshadowí banks in China, with data observed between 2001 and 2014. We Önd that the housing demand shock, which is the essential factor for housing price ëbubblesí to happen, accounts for over 80% of the housing price áuctuation. We also Önd that a prosperous housing market could have led to future economic growth, though quantitatively its marginal impact is small. But this also means that, for policy-makers who wish to stabilise the housing market, the cost on output reduction would be rather limited.
    Keywords: Housing price; Bubbles; Market spillovers; DSGE-VAR; China
    JEL: C11 E32 E44 R31
    Date: 2017–04
  22. By: Biroli, Pietro (University of Zurich); Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Heckman, Lynne Pettler (University of Chicago); Koh, Yu Kyung (University of Chicago); Kuperman, Sylvi (University of Chicago); Moktan, Sidharth (University of Chicago); Pronzato, Chiara D. (University of Turin); Ziff, Anna (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: We evaluate the Reggio Approach using non-experimental data on individuals from the cities of Reggio Emilia, Parma and Padova belonging to one of five age cohorts: ages 50, 40, 30, 18, and 6 as of 2012. The treated were exposed to municipally offered infant-toddler (ages 0–3) and preschool (ages 3–6) programs. The control group either didn't receive formal childcare or were exposed to programs offered by the state or religious systems. We exploit the city-cohort structure of the data to estimate treatment effects using three strategies: difference-in-differences, matching, and matched-difference-in-differences. Most positive and significant effects are generated from comparisons of the treated with individuals who did not receive formal childcare. Relative to not receiving formal care, the Reggio Approach significantly boosts outcomes related to employment, socio-emotional skills, high school graduation, election participation, and obesity. Comparisons with individuals exposed to alternative forms of childcare do not yield strong patterns of positive and significant effects. This suggests that differences between the Reggio Approach and other alternatives are not sufficiently large to result in significant differences in outcomes. This interpretation is supported by our survey, which documents increasing similarities in the administrative and pedagogical practices of childcare systems in the three cities over time.
    Keywords: childcare, early childhood education, Reggio Approach, evaluation, Italian education
    JEL: I21 I26 I28 J13
    Date: 2017–04
  23. By: Jenny Schuetz; Arturo Gonzalez; Jeff Larrimore; Ellen A. Merry; Barbara J. Robles
    Abstract: In the U.S., geography has long been viewed as a proxy for income and race.
    Date: 2017–05–15
  24. By: Fernanda Estevan; Thomas Gall; Patrick Legros
    Abstract: We investigate whether a policy intended to promote diversity in college by admitting a uniform top quantile from each high school can modify high-school segregation by inducing students to relocate to schools with weaker competition. Theoretically, such school arbitrage will neutralize the admissions policy at the college level. It will result in partial desegregation of the high schools if flows are sufficiently unbiased. These predictions are supported by empirical evidence on the effects of the Texas Top Ten Percent Law, indicating that a policy intended to support diversity at the college level actually helped achieve it in the high schools.
    Keywords: matching; affirmative action; education; college admission; high School desegregation; texas top ten percent
    JEL: C78 I23 D45 J78
    Date: 2017–05
  25. By: Ivan Turok; Josh Budlender; Justin Visagie (HSRC; Professor)
    Abstract: The paper uses longitudinal data for South Africa to explore the magnitude of social progression among people living within informal settlements compared with the residents of rural areas and formal urban areas. The objective is to assess whether shack settlements foster or frustrate human progress in the way they link people to the services, contacts and livelihoods concentrated in cities.
    Keywords: Informal urban settlements; South Africa; social mobility; livelihoods; rural-urban migration
    JEL: E26 I3 J46 O17 R0
    Date: 2017–02
  26. By: Jessica Raasch; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen))
    Abstract: With a smart grid environment, flexible load devices and provided local price incentives a more efficient grid usage may be achieved in the future. Bidirectional communication, smart devices and shiftable loads as electric vehicles and heat pumps have the potential to be coordinated with local supply when suitable incentives are provided. This can bring relief especially for distribution grid areas where infeeds from fluctuating renewable energy sources increase. This paper presents a decentralized local pricing mechanism, aiming at local prices that reflect the current load situation. That is in case of congestion a local price, deviating from the wholesale market price, is determined. With an iterative search algorithm suitable prices can be computed without gathering full-fledged bidding data. Simultaneously self-reinforcing effects are avoided. Further on this concept can be implemented rather easily precisely where and when required so that only areas with grid congestion are affected.
    Keywords: Smart Grid, Real-Time Pricing, Network Pricing, Agent-Based Modeling, Price-Elastic Behavior
    JEL: Q40
    Date: 2017–03
  27. By: Alexey A. Egorov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg V. Leshukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander D. Gromov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the contribution of higher education institutions (HEI) in Russia to gross regional product (GRP) growth. We explore the relationship between higher education coverage and rates of economic growth based on longitudinal economic growth models which are pooled regression, fixed effects, and regression with simultaneous fixed and spatial effects. In addition to the influence of HEI on economic growth, the model specifications also allow an investigation of the relationship between the territory accessibility of higher education and GRP growth, and the significance of higher education in regions with different structures of GRP. The main policy outcome of the paper is that universities can be considered as fully-fledged economic agents which make positive contributions to GRP growth. The development of regional higher education systems would lead to a positive effect on regional economic development
    Keywords: higher education, economic growth, spatial effects, influence on GRP, regional economic development
    JEL: I21 I23 I25
    Date: 2017
  28. By: Ballesteros, Marife M.; Magtibay, Jasmine E.; Ramos, Tatum P.
    Abstract: The Community Mortgage Program (CMP) is a financing scheme that enables organized residents of slums to borrow funds for land purchase and housing development. It is already considered to be the most innovative and responsive government housing program in the Philippines. Nevertheless, the CMP still has weaknesses that have not been given much attention during the years of its implementation. These issues pertain to program targeting, service delivery, and organization. This study aims to review the current processes and overall performance of the CMP, including its variant--the localized CMP and the High-Density Housing Program. The study also provides recommendations on how the identified issues can be addressed.
    Keywords: Philippines, housing, informal settlers, community loan mortgage, housing finance, Community Mortgage Program, CMP, Social Housing Finance Corporation, SHFC, housing program
    Date: 2017
  29. By: Jason Allen; Timothy Grieder; Tom Roberts; Brian Peterson
    Abstract: This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Policies targeting the loan-to-value ratio are found to have a larger impact on demand than policies targeting the debt-service ratio, such as amortization. In addition, we show that loan-to-value policies have a larger role to play in reducing default than income-based policies.
    Keywords: macroprudential policy, household finnance, microsimulation models
    Date: 2017–05
  30. By: Lisa Meehan; Gail Pacheco (School of Economics, Faculty of Business, Economics, and Law, Auckland Univeristy of Technology); Zoe Pushon
    Abstract: There are substantial ethnic gaps in higher education in NZ, despite more than a decade of considerable policy effort aimed at this concern. This study uses newly linked administrative data to examine the underachievement of Māori and Pasifika relative to Europeans. We follow a population cohort born between 1990 and 1994 from school through to young adulthood to assess the relative contributions of prior academic performance, socioeconomic status and parental education to these gaps. Controlling for the relevant covariates narrows the Māori-European gap, and eliminates the Pasifika- European gap in bachelor’s degree participation rates. Utilising Fairlie decompositions, we find that school performance is by far the largest contributor to the ethnic gaps. Low socioeconomic status and parental education are also pertinent, but less important. Our results suggest that ethnic-based policies aimed at encouraging participation are likely to have a limited effect if used in isolation, and signal the need for policy interventions earlier in the education system.
    Keywords: Higher education; ethnicity; bachelor’s degree; decomposition
    Date: 2017–03
  31. By: Vincent Bignon (Economix - Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense (Paris 10)); Eve Caroli (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Roberto Galbiati (Observatoire Sociologique du Changement (OSC) - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Using local administrative data from 1826 to 1936, we document the evolution of crime ratesin 19th century France and we estimate the impact of a negative income shock on crime. Ouridentification strategy exploits the phylloxera crisis. Between 1863 and 1890, phylloxeradestroyed about 40% of French vineyards. We use the geographical variation in the timing ofthis shock to identify its impact on property and violent crime rates, as well as minor offences.Our estimates suggest that the phylloxera crisis caused a substantial increase in propertycrime rates and a significant decrease in violent crimes.
    Keywords: phylloxera,Crime,income shock,19th century France
    Date: 2017–04–20
  32. By: Manoj Atolia; Bin Grace Li; Ricardo Marto; Giovanni Melina
    Abstract: Why do governments in developing economies invest in roads and not enough in schools? In the presence of distortionary taxation and debt aversion, the different pace at which roads and schools contribute to economic growth turns out to be central to this decision. Specifically, while costs are front-loaded for both types of investment, the growth benefits of schools accrue with a delay. To put things in perspective, with a “big push,†even assuming a large (15 percent) return differential in favor of schools, the government would still limit the fraction of the investment scale-up going to schools to about a half. Besides debt aversion, political myopia also turns out to be a crucial determinant of public investment composition. A “big push,†by accelerating growth outcomes, mitigates myopia—but at the expense of greater risks to fiscal and debt sustainability. Tied concessional financing and grants can potentially mitigate the adverse effects of both debt aversion and political myopia.
    Date: 2017–05–04
  33. By: Harker, Patrick T. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: The labor market is “more or less at full health,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker today during an urban infrastructure conference at Drexel University. He also discussed the importance of infrastructure and how transportation and housing must evolve to meet the demands of a changing population.
    Keywords: Infrastructure; labor market; urban landscapes
    Date: 2017–05–15
  34. By: Eriksson, Rikard; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: This paper uses a Swedish micro-dataset containing 2,696,909 hires during the period 2002-2006 to assess the impact of job-related mobility on plant-level performance. The analysis classifies new recruits according to their work experience and level of formal qualification, as well as by the region of origin and of destination. New hires are divided into graduates and experienced workers and between high- and low-educated. The results point towards the importance of acknowledging both the experience and the skills of new recruits. The greatest benefits are related to hiring new workers from outside the region where the plant is located. The analysis also stresses the importance of geography, with plants in metropolitan regions gaining the most from labour mobility, while plants in smaller, more peripheral regions getting virtually no benefits from hiring new workers.
    Keywords: agglomeration; education; experience; labour mobility; productivity; Sweden
    JEL: J24 J62 R11
    Date: 2017–05
  35. By: ITF
    Abstract: This report analyses Dublin’s attractiveness as a cruise port and assesses the impacts of cruise shipping on the city. It evaluates policies in place and provides recommendations to increase the positive impacts of cruise shipping for the city of Dublin. Over the last decade, Dublin has grown as an important port of call for cruises in Northern Europe. Cruise tourism generates significant economic benefits for the city of Dublin. The value cruise tourism brings could be further increased by developing Dublin into a cruise home port, that is a port from which cruises start and where they end. Under which conditions could this be achieved? Which policy measures would be needed? Which stakeholders would need to be involved? This report is part of the International Transport Forum’s Case-Specific Policy Analysis series. These are topical studies on specific issues carried out by the ITF in agreement with local institutions.
    Date: 2017–01–23
  36. By: Yi Huang (The Graduate Institute, Geneva); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, EIEF, ECGI and CEPR); Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva, and CEPR)
    Abstract: In China between 2006 and 2013 local public debt issuance crowded out the investment of private manufacturing fi rms by tightening their funding constraints, but it did not affect state-owned and foreign fi rms. The paper, using novel data for local public debt, establishes this result in three ways. First, local public debt is inversely correlated with city-level investment by domestic private manufacturing firms. Second, this fi nding is stronger for private firms that depend more heavily on external funding. And third, in cities where public debt is high, fi rms' investment is more sensitive to internal cash flow, even when cash-flow sensitivity is estimated jointly with the probability of being credit- constrained. These results suggest that the enormous increase in local public debt produced by massive debt issuance as part of the post-2008 fi scal stimulus curtailed private investment, thus weakening China's long-term growth prospects.
    Date: 2017
  37. By: Musharraf Cyan (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Michael Price (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Mark Rider (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Stephanie J. Roberts (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)
    Abstract: According to a recent report by UNESCO (2012a), Pakistan has the second highest number of children in the world that are not attending school, despite increasing primary school net enrollment rates from 58 percent in 1999 to 74 percent in 2010. According to the same report, 25 percent of Pakistanis aged 7 to 16 in 2007 have never attended school. Furthermore, there is a significant education gender gap in Pakistan. Memon (2007) reports that for children enrolled in school, attendance rates are 20 percent higher for males than for females, with 50 percent of enrolled boys regularly attending school compared to 41 percent for enrolled girls. Regarding Pakistan, UNESCO (2012a) reports that more than two-thirds of all children never attending school are female. As adults, many more women than men are illiterate; two-thirds of the 49.5 million Pakistani adults that cannot read are female. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section is a brief review of the literature on the obstacles to female education in developing countries that are believed to contribute to the gender gap. We also review the literature on some of the economic and social consequences of an educational gender gap. The subsequent section describes the survey instrument and sample design. In the third section, we summarize the main empirical findings of this study, and the final section provides conclusions.
    Date: 2017–05
  38. By: Philipp Moehlmeier (Bielefeld University); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Emily Tanimura (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We develop a modification of the connections model by Jackson and Wolinsky (1996) that takes into account negative externalities arising from the connectivity of direct and indirect neighbors, thus combining aspects of the connections model and the co-author model. We consider a general functional form for agents' utility that incorporates both the effects of distance and of neighbors' degree. Consequently, we introduce a framework that can be seen as a degree-distance-based connections model with both negative and positive externalities. Our analysis shows how the introduction of negative externalities modifies certain results about stability and efficiency compared to the original connections model. In particular, we see the emergence of new stable structures, such as a star with links between peripheral nodes. We also identify structures, for example, certain disconnected networks, that are efficient in our model but which could not be efficient in the original connections model. While our results are proved for the general utility function, some of them are illustrated by using a specific functional form of the degree-distance-based utility.
    Keywords: distance, connections model,network, externality, degree
    Date: 2016–04
  39. By: IINO Takashi; INOUE Hiroyasu; SAITO Yukiko; TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: Using worldwide patent data and considering co-assignment as collaboration between firms, we compare the characteristics of international collaboration. Then, we examine the effect of knowledge propagation through collaboration on the quality of innovation. Introducing indices proposed in network science to capture firms' status in networks is the feature of this paper. We found collaborations of Japanese firms are less internationalized compared to other countries while Japanese firms tend to collaborate more than others, i.e., they intensively collaborate within a country. However, intensive collaboration within the country doesn't necessary improve the quality of innovation. Instead, firms bridging firms in different groups and creating various connections produce high-quality innovation. This is contrary to U.S. firms which benefit from various type of connections, including intensity of networks. This implies that it is difficult to improve innovation quality by knowledge propagation through collaboration for firms in many countries including Japan.
    Date: 2017–04
  40. By: Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Dmitri Koustas
    Abstract: We document a decline in the frequency of shopping trips in the U.S. since 1980 and consider its implications for the measurement of consumption inequality. A decline in shopping frequency as households stock up on storable goods (i.e. inventory behavior) will lead to a rise in expenditure inequality when the latter is measured at high frequency, even when underlying consumption inequality is unchanged. We find that most of the recently documented rise in expenditure inequality in the U.S. since the 1980s can be accounted for by this phenomenon. Using detailed micro data on spending which we link to data on club/warehouse store openings, we directly attribute much of the reduced frequency of shopping trips to the rise in club/warehouse stores.
    JEL: D31 D63 E21
    Date: 2017–04
  41. By: Anelli, Massimo (Bocconi University); Shih, Kevin Y. (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Williams, Kevin (University of Utah)
    Abstract: Since the 1980s the United States has faced growing disinterest and high attrition from STEM majors. Over the same period, foreign-born enrollment in U.S. higher education has increased steadily. This paper examines whether foreign-born peers affect the likelihood American college students graduate with a STEM major. Using administrative student records from a large public university in California, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in the share of foreign peers across introductory math courses taught by the same professor over time. Results indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in foreign peers reduces the likelihood native-born students graduate with STEM majors by 3 percentage points – equivalent to 3.7 native students displaced for 9 additional foreign students in an average course. STEM displacement is offset by an increased likelihood of choosing Social Science majors. However, the earnings prospects of displaced students are minimally affected as they appear to be choosing Social Science majors with equally high earning power. We demonstrate that comparative advantage and linguistic dissonance may operate as underlying mechanisms.
    Keywords: immigration, peer effects, higher education, college major, STEM
    JEL: I21 I23 I28 J21 J24
    Date: 2017–04
  42. By: William J. Collins; Marianne H. Wanamaker
    Abstract: We document the intergenerational mobility of black and white American men from 1880 through 2000 by building new datasets to study the late 19th and early 20th century and combining them with modern data to cover the mid- to late 20th century. We find large disparities in intergenerational mobility, with white children having far better chances of escaping the bottom of the distribution than black children in every generation. This mobility gap was more important than the gap in parents’ status in proximately determining each new generation’s racial income gap. Evidence suggests that human capital disparities underpinned the mobility gap.
    JEL: J15 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2017–05
  43. By: Bachtrögler, Julia; Hammer, Christoph; Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Schwendinger, Florian
    Abstract: This study introduces a new firm-level dataset containing over two million projects co-funded by the European Union´s (EU) structural and Cohesion funds in 25 EU member states in the multi-annual financial framework 2007-2013. Information on individual beneficiary firms and institutions published by regional authorities is linked with business data from Bureau van Dijk´s ORBIS database. Moreover, we show how modern text mining techniques can be used to categorise EU funded projects into fifteen thematic categories proposed by the European Commission. A first analysis of the dataset reveals substantial heterogeneity of beneficiaries and projects across and within countries. While in the majority of lagging regions the largest project expenditure is dedicated to transportation and energy infrastructure, in most other regions the major part is assigned to innovation and technological development as well as business (including SME) support. In an econometric analysis we control for project and firm characteristics and find that the highest single project values are associated with older beneficiary firms that are larger in size. Furthermore, the projects with topmost expenditure are carried out in Dutch and British regions.
    Keywords: Distribution of EU structural funds, Regional policy, Firm-level data, Cohesion, European Union
    Date: 2017–05
  44. By: Yasuhiro Sato (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Masaaki Toma ( Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: We examine the transition of the spatial distribution of human capital by using data on Japanese prefectures. We find substantive concentration of university enrollments in Tokyo and its neighboring prefectures. After graduation, slight dispersal occurs but the movements are limited to neighboring prefectures. Moreover, we examine the relationship between human capital distributions of different cohorts, and find that the concentration of university graduates of a particular age group attracts university graduates of adjacent age groups. However, such an effect becomes insignificant and sometimes opposite as the age differences grow.
    Date: 2017–04
  45. By: Laurent Gobillon (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Wolff Francois Charles (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect on quality, quantity and prices of an innovative fishing gear introduced for a subsample of vessels on a single wholesale fish market in France. Estimations are conducted using transaction data over the 2009-2011 period during which the innovation was introduced. Using a difference-in-differences approach around the discontinuity, we find that for the treated the innovation has a large effect on quality (29.2 percentage points) and prices (23.2 percentage points). A shift in caught fish species is observed and new targeted species are fished very intensively. We also quantify the treatment effect on the treated market from aggregate market data using factor models and a synthetic control approach. We find a sizable effect of the innovation on market quality which is consistent with non-treated vessels adapting their fishing practices to remain competitive. The innovation has no effect on market quantities and prices.
    Keywords: fish,innovation,product quality,product prices,discontinuity,difference in differences,synthetic controls,factor models
    Date: 2017–01–10
  46. By: Gutmann, Jerg; Voigt, Stefan
    Abstract: Measurement of both federalism and decentralization has been contentious. We introduce three new indicators reflecting important aspects of both federalism and decentralization. The three new indicators are the result of principal component analysis. When we try to identify their main determinants, it turns out that the only explanatory variable that is significantly correlated with all three is the geographical size of a country. Other variables, such as the size of the population, linguistic fractionalization, or the level of democracy, only help to explain variation of one component. We interpret this as evidence that it is important to distinguish between federalism and decentralization, if one is interested in ascertaining their causes and consequences. We further test for the first time the effect of spatial inequality in a country on the adoption of federalism or decentralization and we find that it correlates significantly with constitutional federalism. This suggests that economically heterogeneous states are more likely to adopt a federal constitution.
    Keywords: Federalism,Fiscal Federalism,Decentralization,Geography,Institutions,Endogenous Constitutions
    JEL: H1 H3 H5 H8
    Date: 2017
  47. By: Adrian Selin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kuzma Kukushkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ivan Sablin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Kocheryagina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The working paper analysed the infrastructure of the Russian-Swedish border from a transcultural perspective. The history of the border was split into three periods following major changes in political border regimes. The first period covered the history of the border between Sweden and the Novgorod Republic after its formal delimitation in 1323. The annexation of the Novgorod Lands to the Grand Duchy of Moscow in 1478 marked the beginning of the second period. The third period, which is discussed in detail, covered the history of border infrastructure between the transition of large part of the Novgorod Lands to Sweden in 1617 and 1700. Departing from the debate whether the border was a line or a zone and overcoming state-centred approaches, the working paper demonstrated that the existence of several parallel border regimes during different periods enabled the simultaneous existence of the border as a line and a zone pertaining to different social interactions and subject to manipulation by authorities. The consolidation of the border did not follow the Treaty of Stolbovo (1617), but owed to local demands and an accidental event of an epidemic in 1629–1630. Following the temporary consolidation of the border, the state established firm border control used for duty collection
    Keywords: Russia, Sweden, Novgorod, border, transcultural
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2017
  48. By: Haroon Bhorat; Adaiah Lilenstein; Jabulile Monnakgotla; Amy Thornton (University of Cape Town; Director)
    Abstract: South Africa possess some of the highest reported crime statistics in the world, making the study of crime and its determinants of particular interest in this context. Three socio-economic factors can initially be identified as playing an important role in our understanding of the incidence of crime: Unemployment, income levels, and the prevalent level of income inequality. This research uses small area level data from the South African census to derive socio-economic variables and link this to crimes reported by the South African Police Service (SAPS). We briefly discuss the literature surrounding crime and socio-economic indicators, both internationally and in South Africa. We then turn to an overview of the other factors that can influence crime rates, before presenting the classic economic theory of crime in more detail. Finally, we discuss our conceptual approach, which draws on the literature and the economic model to determine what we can expect from the results to follow.
    Keywords: Crime, South Africa, unemployment, poverty, inequality, property crime, robbery crime, violent crime, precinct-level income
    JEL: I31 J21 J24 J28 O1 P46
    Date: 2017–04
  49. By: Gehrsitz, Markus (University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver's license suspensions on driving behavior. A little known rule in the German traffic penalty catalogue maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding transgressions within 365 days should have their license suspended for one month. My regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-days cut-off and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This is largely a specific deterrence effect driven by the punishment itself and not by incapacitation, information asymmetries, or the threat of stiffer future penalties.
    Keywords: crime, speeding, deterrence, regression discontinuity
    JEL: I12 K42 R41
    Date: 2017–04
  50. By: Blit, Joel (University of Waterloo); Skuterud, Mikal (University of Waterloo); Zhang, Jue (University of Waterloo)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of changes in skilled-immigrant population shares in 98 Canadian cities between 1981 and 2006 on per capita patents. The Canadian case is of interest because its 'points system' for selecting immigrants is viewed as a model of skilled immigration policy. Our estimates suggest unambiguously smaller beneficial impacts of increasing the university-educated immigrant population share than comparable U.S. estimates, whereas our estimates of the contribution of Canadian-born university graduates are virtually identical in magnitude to the U.S. estimates. The modest contribution of Canadian immigrants to innovation is, in large part, explained by the low employment rates of Canadian STEM-educated immigrants in STEM jobs. Our results point to the value of providing employers with a role in the immigrant screening process.
    Keywords: immigration, innovation, immigration policy
    JEL: J61 J18 O31
    Date: 2017–04
  51. By: Joseph DeSalvo (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)
    Abstract: The DiPasquale-Wheaton (1992) model graphically determines rental price, asset price, newly constructed stock, and total stock in a real estate market. Despite its frequent use in academic research, few textbooks exposit the model. We conjecture this is due in part to the difficulty of deriving its comparative static results. We derive a supply curve that simplifies graphical analysis and perform a complete graphical comparative static analysis. Although the main objective of this paper is to encourage pedagogical usage of the model, an appendix provides a mathematical derivation of the comparative static results, which has not heretofore appeared in the literature.
    Date: 2017–05

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