nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2017‒04‒30
48 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Amenities and the Social Structure of Cities By Carl Gaigne; Hans R.A. Koster; Fabien Moizeau; Jacques-Francois Thisse
  2. Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy By Martin Beraja; Andreas Fuster; Erik Hurst; Joseph Vavra
  3. Does Classroom Gender Composition Affect School Dropout? By Bulent Anil; Duygu Guner; Tuba Toru Delibasi; Gokce Uysal
  4. What’s in a Name? Expectations, Heuristics and Choice During a Period of Radical School Reform By Marco Bertoni; Stephen Gibbons; Olmo Silva
  5. The Social Effects of Ethnic Diversity at the Local Level: A Natural Experiment with Exogenous Residential Allocation By Yann Algan; Camille Hémet; David Laitin
  6. The Greenest Path: Comparing the Effects of Internal and External Costs of Motor Vehicle Pollution on Route Choice and Accessibility By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  7. Surfing a wave of economic growth By Thomas McGregor; Samuel Wills
  8. The Impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on Establishments By Thierry Mayer; Florian Mayneris; Loriane Py
  9. Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp By Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Yeon-Koo Che; Parag A. Pathak; Alvin E. Roth; Olivier Tercieux
  10. Cross-Elasticities in Frequencies and Ridership for Urban Local Routes By Joseph Totten; David Levinson
  11. Gauging two sides of regional economic resilience in Western Germany. Why resitance and recovery should not be lumped together By Franziska Pudelko; Christian Hundt
  12. Citywide Effects of High-Occupancy Vehicle Restrictions: Evidence from the Elimination of "3-in-1" in Jakarta By Hanna, Rema; Kreindler, Gabriel; Olken, Benjamin A.
  13. Institutions vs. Social Interactions in Driving Economic Convergence: Evidence from Colombia By Coscia, Michelle; Cheston, Timothy; Hausmann, Ricardo
  14. An Introduction to the Network Weight Matrix By Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson
  15. Welcome Home in a Crisis: Effects of Return Migration on the Non-Migrants’ Wages and Employment By Hausmann, Ricardo; Nedelkoska, Ljubica
  16. Urban Wage Premium Revisited: Evidence from Japanese matched employer-employee data By KONDO Keisuke
  17. A Framework for Separating Individual Treatment Effects From Spillover, Interaction, and General Equilibrium Effects By Huber, Martin; Steinmayr, Andreas
  18. Improving the Supplemental Poverty Measure: Two proposals By John A. Bishop; Jonathan Lee; Lester A. Zeager
  19. The Safest Path: Analyzing the Effects of Crash Costs on Route Choice and Accessibility By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  20. Crime, compulsory schooling laws and education By Brian Bell; Rui Costa; Stephen Machin
  21. Hidden Costs of Carpooling in Family Life: Travel Behavior of Hispanic Families with Children in the US By Miwa Matsuo
  22. A subregional space-time exploration of family change: Italian municipalities, 1991-2011 By Marcantonio Caltabiano; Emanuela Dreassi; Emilia Rocco; Daniele Vignoli
  23. War, Inflation, and Social Capital By Sergei Guriev; Nikita Melnikov
  24. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets By Daron Acemoglu; Pascual Restrepo
  25. Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting: Review and Proposed Directions By Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson
  26. Industry Growth through Spinoffs and Startups By OHYAMA Atsushi
  27. To Migrate With or Without Ones’ Children in China - That is the Question By Yiwen Chen; Vincent Fromentin; Ioana Salagean; Benteng Zou
  28. Dynamic Benefits of Working in Large Cities: Evidence from Japanese matched employer–employee data By KONDO Keisuke
  29. Productivity gains from agglomeration and migration in Chinese cities over 2002-2013 By Pierre-Philippe Combes; Sylvie Démurger; Shi Li
  30. A hybrid solution approach for the 3L-VRP with simultaneous delivery and pickups By Henriette Koch; Andreas Bortfeldt; Gerhard Wäscher
  31. Can Raising Instructional Time Crowd Out Student Pro-Social Behaviour? Evidence From Germany By Christian Krekel
  32. A Study on Local Governments f Efforts to Hand Down Lessons Learned from Disaster in Japan By Fumio Takeda; Kiyoshi Takeuchi; Takahisa Mizuyama
  33. Voter Turnout and Fiscal Policy By Raphael Godefroy; Emeric Henry
  34. Vehicle Routing at a Food Service Marketplace By Didugu Kavitha Chetana; Soman, Chetan
  35. Inclusive innovation policies: Lessons from international case studies By Sandra Planes-Satorra; Caroline Paunov
  36. The Rise of the Sharing Economy in Tourism: Exploring Airbnb Attributes for the Veneto Region By Jan Van der Borg; Nicola Camatti; Dario Bertocchi; Andrea Albarea
  37. Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence By Joan Monras
  38. Reducing Student Absenteeism in the Early Grades by Targeting Parental Beliefs By Robinson, Carly D.; Lee, Monica G.; Dearing, Eric; Rogers, Todd
  39. Regional labour market mobility. A network analysis of inter-firm relatedness By Shamnaaz B. Sufrauj; Giancarlo Corò; Mario Volpe
  40. The Happiness Function in Italian Cities By Cristina Bernini; Alessandro Tampieri
  41. Rural-Urban Migration and Income Disparity in Tunisia: A Decomposition Analysis By Mohamed Amara; Hatem Jemmali; Mohamed Ayadi
  42. Risky Choices: Simulating Public Pension Funding Stress with Realistic Shocks By Farrell, James; Shoag, Daniel
  43. Full cost analysis of accessibility By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  44. The Employment Effects of Countercyclical Infrastructure Investments By Buchheim, Lukas; Watzinger, Martin
  45. Urban Data Streams and Machine Learning: A Case of Swiss Real Estate Market By Vahid Moosavi
  46. The Labor of Division: Returns to Compulsory High School Math Coursework By Goodman, Joshua
  47. Propagation of Negative Shocks through Firm Networks: Evidence from simulation on comprehensive supply chain data By INOUE Hiroyasu; TODO Yasuyuki
  48. The Impact of Social Safety Net Scholarships Program to School Dropout Rates in Indonesia: The Intention-To-Treat Analysis By Kharisma, Bayu; Satriawan, Elan; Arsyad, Lincolin

  1. By: Carl Gaigne (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - CESAER); Hans R.A. Koster (VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration); Fabien Moizeau (Universite Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie); Jacques-Francois Thisse (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: We develop a new model of a "featureful" city in which locations are differentiated by two attributes, that is, the distance to employment centers and the accessibility to given amenities, and we show how heterogeneous households in income are sorted out across the urban space. Under Stone-Geary preferences, the spatial income distribution is governed by a location-quality index which reffects the interaction between the amenity and commuting cost functions. The residential equilibrium typically involves the spatial separation of households sharing similar incomes. Using data on Dutch cities, we show that there is a causal relationship between the amenity level and consumer income, suggesting that richer households sort themselves into high amenity locations. We do not find strong evidence that employment accessibility leads to income segregation, suggesting that the standard monocentric city model without amenities is a poor predictor of the social structure of cities.
    Keywords: cities, social stratication, income, amenities, commuting
    JEL: R14 R23 R53 Z13
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Martin Beraja; Andreas Fuster; Erik Hurst; Joseph Vavra
    Abstract: We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but that these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth and unemployment. We then build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing and use it to explore the aggregate implications for monetary policy arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.
    JEL: E21 E32 E5 R1 R2
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Bulent Anil; Duygu Guner; Tuba Toru Delibasi; Gokce Uysal (Bahcesehir University)
    Abstract: Measuring the gender peer effects on student achievement has recently attracted a lot of attention in the literature. Yet, the results are inconclusive. A substantial amount of research shows that having relatively more girls in a division increases the academic achievement of all students. Nevertheless, the identification of pure gender effects remains a challenge due to the fact that girls outperform boys in overall academic performance. Our study overcomes this identification problem in a setting where girls are not academically better. Using 2009-2010 school year data on 8th graders in Turkey, this paper disentangles pure "academic" peer effects and "gender" peer effects. Our estimations reveal that the higher the share of females in a division, the lower the likelihood that a student drops out. One standard deviation increase in the share of females in the division decreases the likelihood of dropout by 0.3 percentage points. This result holds even though females are 9.32 percentage points more likely to drop out. These findings are robust to the inclusion of various control variables e.g. parental and academic background of the student, school and regional characteristics. We also find that the gender peer effects are prevalent in both females and males.
    Date: 2017–04–20
  4. By: Marco Bertoni; Stephen Gibbons; Olmo Silva
    Abstract: Education policy worldwide has sought to incentivize school improvement and facilitate pupil-school matching by introducing reforms that promote autonomy and choice. Understanding the way in which families form preferences during these periods of reform is crucial for evaluating the impact of such policies. We study the effects on choice of a recent shock to the English school system - the academy programme - which gave existing state schools greater autonomy, but provided limited information on possible expected benefits. We use administrative data on school applications for three cohorts of students to estimate whether academy conversion changes schools' popularity. We find that families - particularly non-poor, White British ones - rank converted schools higher on average. Expected changes in composition, effectiveness and other school policies cannot explain this updating of preferences. Instead, the patterns suggest that families combine the signal of conversion with prior information on quality, popularity and proximity as a heuristic for assessing a school's expected future performance.
    Keywords: school reform, choice and autonomy, parental preferences, heuristic-based decision making
    JEL: I21 H75 C23 D03
    Date: 2017–04
  5. By: Yann Algan (Département d'économie); Camille Hémet (Aix-Marseille School of Economics); David Laitin (Department of Political Science (Stanford University))
    Abstract: Relying on diversity measures computed at the apartment block level under conditions of exogenous allocation of public housing in France, this paper identifies the effects of ethnic diversity on social relationships and housing quality. Housing Survey data reveal that diversity induces social anomie. Through the channel of anomie, diversity accounts for the inability of residents to sanction others for vandalism and to act collectively to demand proper building maintenance. However, anomie also lowers opportunities for violent confrontations, which are not related to diversity.
    JEL: H10 H41
    Date: 2016–06
  6. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: On-road emissions are a dominant source of urban air pollution, which damages human health. The "greenest path" is proposed as an alternative pattern of traffic route assignment to minimize the costs of emissions or exposure, pursues an environmentally optimal. The framework of a link-based emission cost analysis is built for both internal and external environmental costs and applied to the road network of the Twin Cities Metropolitan area based on the EPA MOVES model. The greenest (internal/external) path is skimmed for all OD pairs to compare the work trip flows on the roads and accessibility distribution. It is shown that the emission cost that travelers impose on others is greater than which they bear. Considering only external emissions costs thus produces a lower accessibility than considering only internal emissions costs. This research contributes to understanding the full cost of travel.
    Keywords: accessibility, Social Costs, Emissions, Pollution exposure, Environmental economics
    JEL: R40 Q53 R20
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Thomas McGregor; Samuel Wills
    Abstract: We investigate whether the geographic determinants of growth extend to natural amenities. We combine data on spatial and temporal variation in the quality of over 5000 surf breaks globally with data on local economic performance, proxied by night-time lights. We document a strong association between natural amenity quality and local economic development. Economic activity grows faster near good surf breaks; following the discovery of new breaks, or the technology needed to ride them; and during El Niño events that generate high-quality waves. The effects are concentrated in nearby towns and emerging economies, and population changes are consistent with tourism.
    Keywords: Natural amenities, economic growth, new economic geography, natural advantages, tourism, surfing, night-time lights
    JEL: O13 O44 O47 Q26 Q51 Q56 R11 R12
    Date: 2017–04
  8. By: Thierry Mayer (Département d'économie); Florian Mayneris (Institut de recherches économiques et sociales); Loriane Py (Banque de France)
    Abstract: In this article, we study the impact of a French enterprise zone program—the ‘Zones Franches Urbaines’ (ZFUs) policy—on establishment location decisions and on labor market outcomes. Our main identification strategy, which combines spatial and time differencing, shows that conditional on locating in a municipality that hosts a ZFU, the policy has a positive and sizable impact on the probability to locate in the ZFU part rather than in the non-ZFU part of municipalities. However, the impact is highly heterogeneous across zones, industries and firms. We also show that this positive effect is entirely due to within-municipality diversion effects. Regarding labor market outcomes, the policy has a positive effect on employment, especially for low-wage workers. As for wages, the effect is null for low-wage workers, and negative for high-wage ones.
    Keywords: Firm location; Enterprise zones; Employment; Wages; Spatial differencing
    JEL: R12 R38 R58
    Date: 2015–10
  9. By: Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Yeon-Koo Che; Parag A. Pathak; Alvin E. Roth; Olivier Tercieux
    Abstract: In 2012, New Orleans Recovery School District (RSD) became the first U.S. district to unify charter and traditional public school admissions in a single-offer assignment mechanism known as OneApp. The RSD also became the first district to use a mechanism based on Top Trading Cycles (TTC) in a real-life allocation problem. Since TTC was originally devised for settings in which agents have endowments, there is no formal rationale for TTC in school choice. In particular, TTC is a Pareto efficient and strategy-proof mechanism, but so are other mechanisms. We show that TTC is constrained-optimal in the following sense: TTC minimizes justified envy among all Pareto efficient and strategy-proof mechanisms when each school has one seat. When schools have more than one seat, there are multiple possible implementations of TTC. Data from New Orleans and Boston indicate that there is little difference across these versions of TTC, but significantly less justified envy compared to a serial dictatorship.
    JEL: D47 I20
    Date: 2017–03
  10. By: Joseph Totten; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Observational data from the Minneapolis-Saint Paul region’s Metro Transit, are analyzed to determine the effects of service levels on ridership levels at different intervals. This research is innovative because it compares changes in service levels and ridership in several service intervals, and includes the elasticities and cross elasticities, or the influence that these service levels have on different service intervals’ ridership. These cross-elasticities are not known to have been researched previously, and are found to have little effect during the week; however, weekend ridership was found to be influenced by rush hour and overnight frequencies. Future research should replicate this study in other cities, and should use express and suburban routes.
    Keywords: Transit ridership, Cross-elasticity
    JEL: R40 H43 L91
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Franziska Pudelko (Department of Geography, Philipps University Marburg); Christian Hundt (Department of Geography, Ruhr University Bochum)
    Abstract: The paper empirically investigates the economic resilience of Western German regions in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008/2009. In particular, the focus is laid on the influence of regional agglomeration economies (arising from specialization, related and unrelated variety) and the explicit sudivision of short-term resilience into resistance and recovery. The necessity to distinguish between different factors and phases is well documented by means of the OLS regression results as all three types of agglomeration economies reveal varying, if not opposing directions of influences across the resistance and recovery phase. A pregnant example refers to regional specialization. Not only does it show a negative impact on resistance while exerting a positive influence during the recovery phase, but it is also mediated by the regional share in manufacturing workforce. This workforce reveals opposing phase-specific facts itself. hence, ignoring the two-component structure of short-term resilience entails the risk of imprecise, if not false conclusions on the driving mechanisms stabilizing and/or destabilizing regional economies in times of crisis.
    Keywords: regional economic resilience, resistance, recovery, agglomeration economies, industry structure
    JEL: R11 R12 E32
    Date: 2017–03
  12. By: Hanna, Rema (Harvard University); Kreindler, Gabriel (MIT); Olken, Benjamin A. (MIT)
    Abstract: We use high frequency data on traffic congestion from Google Maps to measure the impact of Jakarta's main traffic congestion reduction policy, a high-occupancy vehicle restriction policy. We find that the unexpected lifting of the policy led to a large, sudden and persistent increase in travel delay during operating hours on affected roads, with delays rising between 45-85 percent. Surprisingly, this increase in traffic was not just substitution of traffic from unaffected roads to previously restricted roads. Instead, we find that the removal of the high-occupancy vehicle restriction led to worse traffic throughout the city, both on other roads that had never been restricted and during times of the day when there restrictions had never been in place previously. The results suggest that targeted restrictions on road use can have positive general equilibrium effects on traffic throughout the city.
    Date: 2016–12
  13. By: Coscia, Michelle (Harvard University and University of Namur); Cheston, Timothy (Harvard University); Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Are regions poor because they have bad institutions or are they poor because they are disconnected from the social channels through which technology diffuses? This paper tests institutional and technological theories of economic convergence by looking at income convergence across Colombian municipalities. We use formal employment and wage data to estimate growth of income per capita at the municipal level. In Colombia, municipalities are organized into 32 departamentos or states. We use cellphone metadata to cluster municipalities into 32 communication clusters, defined as a set of municipalities that are densely connected through phone calls. We show that these two forms of grouping municipalities are very different. We study the effect on municipal income growth of the characteristics of both the state and the communication cluster to which the municipality belongs. We find that belonging to a richer communication cluster accelerates convergence, while belonging to a richer state does not. This result is robust to controlling for state fixed effects when studying the impact of communication clusters and vice versa. The results point to the importance of social interactions rather than formal institutions in the growth process.
    Date: 2017–02
  14. By: Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This study introduces the network weight matrix as a replacement for the spatial weight matrix to measure the spatial dependence between links of a network. This matrix stems from the concept of betweenness centrality and vulnerability in network science. The elements of the matrix are a function not simply of proximity, but of network topology, network structure, and demand configuration. The network weight matrix has distinctive characteristic, which are capable of reflecting spatial dependence between traffic links: (1) The elements are allowed to have negative and positive values, which capture competitive and complementary nature of links, (2) The diagonal elements are not fixed to zero, which takes the self-dependence of a link upon itself into consideration, and (3) The elements not only reflect the spatial dependence based on the network structure, but they acknowledge the demand configuration as well. We verified the network weight matrix by modeling traffic flows in a 3x3 grid test network with 9 nodes and 24 directed links connecting 72 origin-destination (OD) pairs. The results disclose models encompassing the network weight matrix outperform both models without spatial components and models with the spatial weight matrix. This leads inexorably to the conclusion that the network weight matrix represents a more accurate and defensible spatial dependency between traffic links, and thereby augments traffic flow prediction.
    Keywords: Spatial Weight Matrix, Spatial Econometrics, Traffic Flow, Traffic Network
    JEL: R40 C21 C22
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University); Nedelkoska, Ljubica (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Albanian migrants in Greece were particularly affected by the Greek crisis, which spurred a wave of return migration that increased Albania's labor force by 5% between 2011 and 2014 alone. We study how this return migration affected the employment chances and earnings of Albanians who never migrated. We find positive effects on the wages of low-skilled non-migrants and overall positive effects on employment. The gains partially offset the sharp drop in remittances in the observed period. The employment gains are concentrated in the agricultural sector, where most return migrants engage in self-employment and entrepreneurship. Businesses run by return migrants seem to pull Albanians from non-participation, self employment and subsistence agriculture into commercial agriculture.
    JEL: J21 J23 J24 J31 J61
    Date: 2017–01
  16. By: KONDO Keisuke
    Abstract: Recent studies on the empirics of agglomeration economies have assumed a two-step channel of the urban wage premium in which agglomeration increases total factor productivity (TFP) and results in higher wages. Therefore, the present study empirically examines the validity of this two-step channel via TFP and investigates other channels of the urban wage premium by using matched employer-employee data in the Japanese manufacturing sector. The findings show that the standard wage regression approach used in the literature captures not only the TFP channel of the urban wage premium but also other effects (e.g., firm size effects on wage). Furthermore, when this TFP channel is quantified, the city size elasticity of wage becomes smaller than those in the existing literature. The implication of this study is that, by exploiting the features of the Japanese employment system, it is possible to obtain interesting results concerning the urban wage premium, especially in regard to basic pay and bonuses.
    Date: 2017–03
  17. By: Huber, Martin (University of Fribourg); Steinmayr, Andreas (University of Munich)
    Abstract: This paper suggests a causal framework for disentangling individual level treatment effects and interference effects, i.e., general equilibrium, spillover, or interaction effects related to treatment distribution. Thus, the framework allows for a relaxation of the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA), which assumes away any form of treatment-dependent interference between study participants. Instead, we permit interference effects within aggregate units, for example, regions or local labor markets, but need to rule out interference effects between these aggregate units. Borrowing notation from the causal mediation literature, we define a range of policy-relevant effects and formally discuss identification based on randomization, selection on observables, and difference-in-differences. We also present an application to a policy intervention extending unemployment benefit durations in selected regions of Austria that arguably affected ineligibles in treated regions through general equilibrium effects in local labor markets.
    Keywords: Treatment effect; general equilibrium effects; spillover effects; interaction effects; interference effects; inverse probability weighting; propensity score; mediation analysis; difference-in-differences;
    JEL: C21 C31
    Date: 2017–03–23
  18. By: John A. Bishop (East Carolina University, U.S.A.); Jonathan Lee (East Carolina University, U.S.A.); Lester A. Zeager (East Carolina University, U.S.A.)
    Abstract: Questions about the adequacy of the official poverty measure led to the development of the Supplemental Poverty Measure, designed to be released concurrently with the official poverty measure. We raise two concerns with the Supplemental Poverty Measure: a discontinuity in the economies of scale implied by the equivalence scale and the adjustment for local prices using only housing costs. We propose corrections for both issues that can be applied by anyone using the public use files of the Current Population Survey. The changes we propose would have the greatest effect on poverty rates for the elderly and would reduce the difference in poverty rates by metro status.
    Keywords: supplemental poverty measure, equivalence scales, spatial price index.
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2017–03
  19. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: The "safest path" is proposed to optimize the on-road safety of individuals and minimize the cost of crashes. In this study, the framework of a link-based crash cost analysis is built and applied to assess the crash cost of each link segment on the road network of the Minneapolis - St. Paul area based on Safety Performance Functions from the perspective of travelers. The safest path is then found for all OD pairs to compare flow patterns and accessibility distributions with those based on the traditional shortest travel time path. While, the safest path does not coincide with the shortest path, the accessibility distributions have similar patterns.
    Keywords: accessibility, safety, safety performance function
    JEL: R41 R10 J28 D62 H23
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Brian Bell; Rui Costa; Stephen Machin
    Abstract: Do compulsory schooling laws reduce crime? Previous evidence for the US from the 1960s and 1970s suggests they do, primarily working through their effect on educational attainment to generate a causal impact on crime. In this paper, we consider whether more recent experience replicates this. There are two key findings. First, there is a strong and consistent negative effect on crime from stricter compulsory schooling laws. Second, there is a weaker and sometimes non-existent link between such laws and educational attainment. As a result, credible causal estimates of the education–crime relationship cannot in general be identified for the more recent period, though they can for some groups with lower education levels (in particular, for blacks).
    Keywords: Crime; Education; Compulsory schooling laws
    JEL: I2 K42
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Miwa Matsuo (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)
    Abstract: In the U.S., Hispanic immigrant households who have low access to private vehicles typically depend on carpooling rather than taking transit, the tendency that is not observed for immigrants of other race/ethnicity groups. Moreover, my previous paper reveals that females of Hispanic immigrants are heavily dependent on others’ mobility and delay becoming drivers, even though they seem to choose auto-dependent lifestyle at household level. These findings leave a question how much time is wasted by dependence on carpooling when many household members are transportation disadvantaged, such as children under driving age. This paper explores travel characteristics of Hispanic immigrant households with children in the following points; (1) whether they are lower mobility at household level, (2) whether adult members’ time is wasted for transporting children, and (3) whether children’s total travel time and active non-commuting trip frequency are different by the number of drivers and/or vehicles in the household, using the National Household Travel Survey data of 2009.
    Keywords: Mobility, Immigrants, Hispanics, Children, National Household Travel Survey
    Date: 2017–03
  22. By: Marcantonio Caltabiano (Dipartimento di Economia, Università di Messina); Emanuela Dreassi (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Emilia Rocco (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: This paper posits that the municipality level offers important insights into the study of temporal and spatial patterns of family change. We focus on the diffusion of one-parent families in Italy: variation in the structure of co-resident domestic groups is a crucial indicator of changing diversity in family patterns. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model to the data of the last three Italian Population Censuses, at the municipality level. Our results show substantial sub-regional and sub-provincial heterogeneities in the spatial organization of family systems. These patterns might have gone undetected if larger territorial units of analysis had been considered.
    Keywords: Family change; one-parent families; municipality level; Bayesian spatio-temporal model; Italy
    JEL: J12 J13 C33
    Date: 2017–04
  23. By: Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie); Nikita Melnikov (Higher School of Economics (HSE))
    Abstract: We use weekly data from 79 Russian regions to measure the impact of economic shocks and proximity to war in Ukraine on social capital in Russian regions. We proxy social capital by the relative intensity of internet searches for the most salient dimensions of pro-social behavior such as "donate blood", "charity", "adopt a child" etc. This measure of social capital is correlated with a survey-based measure of generalized social trust. Our search-based measure of social capital responds negatively to the spikes of inflation and positively to the intensity of the conflict in Ukraine (controlling for region and week fixed effects).
    JEL: D72 D74 E31 P24 P25 P36 Z13
    Date: 2016–05
  24. By: Daron Acemoglu; Pascual Restrepo
    Abstract: As robots and other computer-assisted technologies take over tasks previously performed by labor, there is increasing concern about the future of jobs and wages. We analyze the effect of the increase in industrial robot usage between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets. Using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, we show that robots may reduce employment and wages, and that the local labor market effects of robots can be estimated by regressing the change in employment and wages on the exposure to robots in each local labor market—defined from the national penetration of robots into each industry and the local distribution of employment across industries. Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We bolster this evidence by showing that the commuting zones most exposed to robots in the post-1990 era do not exhibit any differential trends before 1990. The impact of robots is distinct from the impact of imports from China and Mexico, the decline of routine jobs, offshoring, other types of IT capital, and the total capital stock (in fact, exposure to robots is only weakly correlated with these other variables). According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent.
    JEL: J23 J24
    Date: 2017–03
  25. By: Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We synthesize 130 extracted research papers from two perspectives: (1) methodological framework, and (2) approach for capturing and incorporating spatial information. From the methodology side, spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. There is a broad and longstanding agreement that non-parametric methods outperform the naive statistical methods such as historical average, real time profile, and exponential smoothing. However, to make an inexorable conclusion regarding the performance of neural network methods against STARIMA family models, more research is needed in this field. From the spatial dependency detection side, we believe that a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks. This systematic review highlights that the field is approaching its maturity, while it is still as crude as it is perplexing. It is perplexing in the conceptual methodology, and it is crude in the capture of spatial information.
    Keywords: Traffic Forecasting, Spatial Correlation, Systematic Review, Traffic Network, Life-cycle
    JEL: R40 C21 C22 B23
    Date: 2016
  26. By: OHYAMA Atsushi
    Abstract: The literature on industry life cycle suggests that there is some underlying mechanism that generates differences in time for industries reaching their peaks. What causes variation in such peak times across industries? In this paper, I use the Japanese Census of Manufacture and investigate (i) whether creation and destruction of submarkets in an industry affect the length of positive net entry periods and subsequent entry rates, (ii) what type of firm is more likely to be actively engaged in a newly created or destructed submarket, and (iii) how reallocation of unrealized opportunities from incumbent firms to spinoff firms affects the entry process. This study reveals that the creation and destruction of a submarket allow an industry to continue attracting new entrants, that startup and spinoff firms are more likely to enter a newly created submarket than incumbent firms, and that new entry is encouraged when unrealized business opportunities are reallocated smoothly.
    Date: 2017–03
  27. By: Yiwen Chen (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Vincent Fromentin (Université de Lorraine, Nancy et CREA, Luxembourg); Ioana Salagean (STATEC, Luxembourg); Benteng Zou (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: Where should Chinese internal migrant parents locate their school-aged children: migrate with them or leave them behind? And should they invest in private education of their children? Empirical evidence based on the 2009 wave of the Rural-Urban Migration Survey in China (RUMiC) data is inconclusive. We use an overlapping generations model to find a theoretical optimum that maximizes parents’ utility which includes the children’s educational performance. Depending on the educational investment parents make and the relocation cost of children, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for migrant parents to take their children to migrate and whether they should provide their children with private education. As the choices of migrant parents affect not only their children’s human capital accumulation, but also on the economic potential of their descendants, we present both short- and long-term consequences of the parents decision.
    Keywords: Migrant children; left-behind children; hukou; China; educational performance
    JEL: O15 I31 J13 R23
    Date: 2017
  28. By: KONDO Keisuke
    Abstract: This study estimates wage and labor productivity profiles using a matched employer-employee dataset of the Japanese service industry. Our main concern is to uncover how work experience in large cities helps workers dynamically accumulate human capital, by comparing wage and labor productivity profiles. This study finds that longer work experience in larger cities steepens wage and labor productivity profiles, suggesting that upgrading skills by working in large cities provides dynamic benefits of agglomeration economies. Interestingly, this study finds different growth patterns between wage and labor productivity premiums. Labor productivity grows rapidly with longer work experience in large cities, but the growth of the labor productivity premium stops at about 15-20 years of work experience; in contrast, the wage premium grows gradually until about 35 years of work experience.
    Date: 2017–03
  29. By: Pierre-Philippe Combes (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, 93 chemin des Mouilles, F-69130 Ecully, France; Sciences Po, Department of Economics, 28, Rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris, France. Also research fellow at the CEPR.); Sylvie Démurger (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France. Also research fellow at IZA, Bonn, Germany); Shi Li (School of Business, Beijing Normal University, China; IZA, Bonn, Germany)
    Abstract: We evaluate the evolution of productivity gains from Chinese cities over time, from 2002 to 2013. In 2002, rural migrants were exerting a strong positive externality on natives' earnings, which were also higher when access to foreign markets through access to sea was higher. In 2007 and then further in 2013, city size (employment density but also land area) has become the crucial determinant of productivity whereas market access, internal or external, plays no direct role. Rural migrants still enhance natives' earnings, though the effect is more than hal f lower than in 2002. Urban gains, and their evolution over time, are very similar on total and per hour earnings. Skilled workers and females seem to gain slightly more from cities than unskilled workers and males.
    Keywords: urban development, agglomeration economies, wage disparities, migration, China
    JEL: O18 R12 R23 J31 O53
    Date: 2017
  30. By: Henriette Koch (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Andreas Bortfeldt (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Gerhard Wäscher (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a special vehicle routing problem with backhauls where each customer receives items from a depot and, at the same time, returns items back to the depot. Moreover, time windows are assumed and three-dimensional loading constraints are to be observed, i.e. the items are three-dimensional boxes and packing constraints, e.g. regarding load stability, are to be met. The resulting problem is the vehicle routing problem with simultaneous delivery and pickup (VRPSDP), time windows, and three-dimensional loading constraints (3L-VRPSDPTW). This problem occurs, for example, if retail stores are supplied by a central warehouse and wish to return packaging material. A particular challenge of the problem is to transport delivery and pickup items simultaneously on the same vehicle. In order to avoid any reloading effort during a tour, we consider two different loading approaches of vehicles: (i) loading from the back side with separation of the loading space into a delivery section and a pickup section and (ii) loading at the long side. A hybrid algorithm is proposed for the 3L-VRPSDPTW consisting of an adaptive large neighbourhood search for the routing and different packing heuristics for the loading part of the problem. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted with VRPSDP instances from the literature and newly generated instances for the 3LVRPSDPTW.
    Keywords: vehicle routing, backhauls, three-dimensional loading constraints, large neighbourhood search
    Date: 2017–04
  31. By: Christian Krekel
    Abstract: We study whether raising instructional time can crowd out student pro-social behaviour. To this end, we exploit a large educational reform in Germany that has raised weekly instructional time for high school students by 12.5% as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that this rise has a negative and sizeable effect on volunteering, both at the intensive and at the extensive margin. It also affects political interest. There is no similar crowding out of scholastic involvement, but no substitution either. We conclude that instructional time plays an important role in shaping student pro-social behaviour.
    Keywords: Instructional time, student pro-social behaviour, volunteering, scholastic involvement, political interest, quasi-natural experiment, "G8" Reform, SOEP
    Date: 2017
  32. By: Fumio Takeda (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Kiyoshi Takeuchi (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Takahisa Mizuyama (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: Large-scale disasters are rare, and countermeasures from actual experiences are limited, so we have no choice but to depend on tradition over generations in the region and hearings from other regions. In the revision of the Basic Act on Disaster Control Measures after the Great East Japan Earthquake, "Transfer of Lessons Learned from Disaster" was also stated, but research has not been advanced as compared with other disaster countermeasures efforts. In this research, a survey form was sent to a total of 121 authorities nationwide (47 prefectures, 20 ordinance-designated cities, 31 prefectural capital cities and 23 special wards in Tokyo) in order to grasp the actual situation of efforts for transfer of lessons learned from disaster in local governments, we eventurally got a response from 87 author-ities (72%). As a result, in particular, efforts in areas experienced large-scale disasters in recent years are notable, reveal-ing that cooperation with other areas and information sharing are issues. I sincerely hope that Japan's disaster prevention and crisis management policy will progress, and I hope this research will be of assistance.
    Date: 2017–04
  33. By: Raphael Godefroy (Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques); Emeric Henry (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine whether shocks in voting costs can impact elected representatives' quality, defined as the capacity to fund projects at the lowest cost. Using data on French municipalities and local variations in seasonal infections incidence as a shock on voting cost, we estimate that higher incidence lowers voter turnout, increases subsidies obtained by a municipality, decreases harmful financial decisions, and increases the municipality's investment in infrastructure. We present a model where these predictions would hold, in particular for municipalities with a high base level of turnout.
    Keywords: Turnout; Public finance
    Date: 2016–10
  34. By: Didugu Kavitha Chetana; Soman, Chetan
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the case of an aggregator-cum-restaurant that also offers pickup and delivery services to third party restaurants registered with it. The aggregator must decide on its fleet size and the optimal routes to assign to each vehicle deployed. We propose a heterogeneous, compartmentalised vehicle routing model with pickup and delivery for the aggregator involving time windows and source selection, to minimise the route duration (or the total cost) of its fleet. The model accounts for traffic conditions (captured by speed data) over the route, maximum service radius of the fleet and time windows for customers as well as restaurants. This paper, to the best of our knowledge, is probably the first one that deals with vehicle routing problem for an online hyperlocal food service marketplace (also referred to as aggregator) that functions as a quick service restaurant (QSR) as well.
    Date: 2017–04–25
  35. By: Sandra Planes-Satorra (OECD); Caroline Paunov (OECD)
    Abstract: Innovation policies are central to growth agendas in most countries, but have figured much less prominently in strategies to promote social inclusion. In recent years, many countries have implemented “inclusive innovation policies”– a specific set of innovation policies that aim to boost the capacities and opportunities of disadvantaged individuals to engage in innovation activities, including research and entrepreneurship. Examples include the provision of grants to researchers from disadvantaged groups, the deployment of programmes to popularise science and technology, the provision of micro-credit to entrepreneurs and the provision of grants to firms locating their R&D activities in peripheral regions. This paper analyses the role that inclusive innovation policies can play in tackling social, industrial and territorial inclusiveness challenges by drawing on 33 detailed policy examples from 15 countries. The paper discusses why these policies should be a priority, explores the specific challenges that arise in their implementation and provides recommendations as to how the challenges can best be addressed.
    Date: 2017–04–25
  36. By: Jan Van der Borg (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari, and KU Leuven); Nicola Camatti (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Dario Bertocchi (IUAV University of Venice); Andrea Albarea (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: In just a couple of years, the sharing economy grew out to become a significant segment of the holiday accommodation market. Online peer-to-peer marketplaces allow people to offer rooms or entire houses to tourists, with Airbnb being the biggest and most famous example. This paper aims to give an insight into explaining which factors and attributes influence the success of Airbnb accommodations in the Veneto Region, using occupancy as a proxy. We analysed characteristics of 19624 Airbnb accommodations. The logistic regression model identifies a number of influential attributes which can be divided between locational characteristics, being located in attractive tourism destinations, and accommodation characteristics, for example the price, rating, number of previous bookings and the status of the host. The quantitative analysis allows to create an attractiveness scale, which is analysed for geographic patterns.
    Keywords: sharing economy, peer-to-peer marketplaces, Airbnb, attractiveness, tourism policy
    JEL: L83 O18 R58
    Date: 2017
  37. By: Joan Monras (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a spatial equilibrium model that relates earnings, employment, and internal migration responses to minimum wage increases. Population moves to or away from regions that increase minimum wages depending on the labor demand elasticity and on the financing of unemployment benefits. The empirical evidence shows that increases in minimum wages lead to increases in average wages and decreases in employment among the low-skilled. The labor demand elasticity is estimated to be above 1, in the model a necessary condition for the migration responses observed in the data. Low-skilled workers tend to leave the regions that increase minimum wages.
    Date: 2016–05
  38. By: Robinson, Carly D. (Harvard University); Lee, Monica G. (Stanford University); Dearing, Eric (Boston College); Rogers, Todd (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Attendance in kindergarten and elementary school robustly predicts student outcomes. Despite this well-documented association, there is little experimental research on how to reduce absenteeism in the early grades. This paper presents results from a randomized field experiment in ten school districts evaluating the impact of a low-cost, parent-focused intervention on student attendance in grades K-5. The intervention targeted commonly held parental misbeliefs undervaluing the importance of regular K-5 attendance as well as the number of school days their child had missed. The intervention decreased chronic absenteeism by 15%. This study presents the first experimental evidence on how to improve student attendance in grades K-5 at scale, and has implications for increasing parental involvement in education.
    Date: 2017–03
  39. By: Shamnaaz B. Sufrauj (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Giancarlo Corò (Economics, Languages and Entrepreneurship, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Mario Volpe (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: Labour market rigidity is known to hamper the proper adjustment of an economy, thus, making it less resilient to shocks. This paper investigates the characteristics and resilience of the regional labour flow network in Veneto, a region famous for its industrial districts and the expertise of its workforce. A unique database of inter-firm worker mobility is used and the made-in-Italy relatedness to other industries is quantified. Descriptive results suggest that permanent-contract workers are more mobile within-sector than fixed-term contractors. The latter are more mobile across sectors. A finer disaggregation of the made-in-Italy industries shows that textile, food and woodwork are highly related to leisure-retail, logistics-wholesale and agriculture. These results can orient policy-making in getting faster labour reallocation. Network analysis establishes a number of stylised facts about labour flow networks, in particular, a hierarchical organisation of flows and a preference for workers to move from low-connected to high-connected firms and vice-versa, i.e. disassortativity. Unlike previous research, this paper identifies clusters of a non-spatial nature, that are, based on the intensity of labour flows. Regression analysis shows that labour mobility, both in and out, is beneficial for firms. However, being located inside labour clusters negatively affects firm performance. Interestingly, when these clusters include MNEs, they benefit. These results combined suggest that variety of connections prevails over standardisation.
    Keywords: Labour mobility, network analysis, skill-relatedness cross-industry linkages
    JEL: J24 J62 L14 R23 F23
    Date: 2017
  40. By: Cristina Bernini (University of Bologna); Alessandro Tampieri (University of Bologna and CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: We investigate how the city of residence influences subjective well-being. We build up a happiness function that considers city characteristics as determinants of well-being, and we combine individual and city level data through a multi-level analysis. We exploit the dataset HADL on Italian metropolitan area over the period 2010 to 2013. We find a strong variability across cities of the aspects of life that explain subjective well-being. Even accounting for a rich set of individual level variables, the location retains a role in shaping life satisfaction. Surprisingly, economic and familiar aspects explain happiness more at city level than at individual level.
    Keywords: Subjective well-being; happiness function; metropolitan area; multilevel models; city amenities.
    JEL: I31 R10
    Date: 2017
  41. By: Mohamed Amara; Hatem Jemmali (University of Tunis ElManar); Mohamed Ayadi
    Abstract: Since the 1990s, massive migration from the marginalized and unprivileged rural areas to small and big towns has been one of the most dramatic and noticeable demographic changes in Tunisia. Even though it has been the focus of abundant research over the recent decades, no study has focused on the earnings differentials between rural-urban migrants and rural stayers. This paper may be the first to investigate such differentials in the Tunisian context. It uses firstly the ELL's methodology to impute into the 2004 census data the per capita expenditures from the 2005 household survey. Then, a decomposition analysis of the welfare gap between migrants and non-migrants is performed using the Oxaca and Blinder's method. It also investigates the main determinants that drive such disparities in order to evaluate how economic and social-demographic factors contribute to the earning gap between the two groups. Our findings indicate that even though some migrants incur welfares losses, rural-urban migration increases on average the welfare of migrants. They show as well that the welfare gaps between migrants and non-migrants are mainly due to the differences in endowments. Education is found to exert the strongest influence on welfare differences and big cities, more specifically the Greater Tunis, is found to attract massively the skilled migrants and enjoy the benefit of agglomeration economies.
    Date: 2017–04–20
  42. By: Farrell, James (FL Southern College); Shoag, Daniel (Harvard University)
    Abstract: State and local government pension funds in the United States collectively manage a very large and diverse pool of assets to meet the even large sum of accrued liabilities. Recent research has emphasized that widely-used accounting practices, like matching discount rates to expected asset returns, understate the market value of these liabilities. Less work has explored the risks inherent in existing diverse set asset allocations, and the accounting practices used by most state and local pensions do not capture or report this risk at all. To explore the effect of asset market risk, we build and simulate a dynamic model of pension funding using a realistic return generating process. We find that the range of potential outcomes is very large, meaning that state and local governments need to prepare for an extremely wide range of possible funding shocks in the next few decades. Moreover, this wide range of outcomes makes the ultimate impact of policy choices--such as changing the discount rate or failing to sufficiently contribute to the fund--nonlinear and difficult to anticipate. Together, these findings suggest the need for more attention and reporting of these risks and the attendant range of possible outcomes by public plans.
    Date: 2016–09
  43. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Traditional accessibility evaluation fails to fully capture the travel costs, especially the external costs of travel. This study develops a framework of extending accessibility analysis combining the alternate (internal and external) cost components of travel, time, safety, emission and money, with accessibility analysis, which makes it an efficient evaluation tool for the potential needs of transport planning projects. An illustration of this framework based on a toy network was also built in this paper, which proves the potential of applying the extending accessibility analysis into the network of metropolitan areas.
    Keywords: accessibility, full cost analysis
    JEL: R40 D62 H23 R20 Q50
    Date: 2016
  44. By: Buchheim, Lukas (University of Munich); Watzinger, Martin (University of Munich)
    Abstract: We estimate the causal impact of a sizable German infrastructure investment program on employment at the county level. The program focused on improving the energy efficiency of school buildings, making it possible to use the number of schools as an instrument for investments. We find that the program was effective, creating one job for one year for each €25\'000 of investments. The employment gains reached their peak after nine months and dropped to zero quickly after the program\'s completion. The reductions in unemployment amounted to two-thirds of the job creation, and employment grew predominately in the construction and non-tradable industries.
    Keywords: infrastructure investments; job creation; employment dynamics; countercyclical fiscal policy;
    JEL: E24 E62 H72
    Date: 2017–03–25
  45. By: Vahid Moosavi
    Abstract: In this paper, we show how using publicly available data streams and machine learning algorithms one can develop practical data driven services with no input from domain experts as a form of prior knowledge. We report the initial steps toward development of a real estate portal in Switzerland. Based on continuous web crawling of publicly available real estate advertisements and using building data from Open Street Map, we developed a system, where we roughly estimate the rental and sale price indexes of 1.7 million buildings across the country. In addition to these rough estimates, we developed a web based API for accurate automated valuation of rental prices of individual properties and spatial sensitivity analysis of rental market. We tested several established function approximation methods against the test data to check the quality of the rental price estimations and based on our experiments, Random Forest gives very reasonable results with the median absolute relative error of 6.57 percent, which is comparable with the state of the art in the industry. We argue that while recently there have been successful cases of real estate portals, which are based on Big Data, majority of the existing solutions are expensive, limited to certain users and mostly with non-transparent underlying systems. As an alternative we discuss, how using the crawled data sets and other open data sets provided from different institutes it is easily possible to develop data driven services for spatial and temporal sensitivity analysis in the real estate market to be used for different stakeholders. We believe that this kind of digital literacy can disrupt many other existing business concepts across many domains.
    Date: 2017–03
  46. By: Goodman, Joshua (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Despite great focus on and public investment in STEM education, little causal evidence connects quantitative coursework to students' economic outcomes. I show that state changes in minimum high school math requirements substantially increase black students' completed math coursework and their later earnings. The marginal student's return to an additional math course is 10 percent, roughly half the return to a year of high school, and is partly explained by a shift toward more cognitively skilled occupations. Whites' coursework and earnings are unaffected. Rigorous standards for quantitative coursework can close meaningful portions of racial gaps in economic outcomes.
    JEL: I24 I28 J24 J31
    Date: 2017–01
  47. By: INOUE Hiroyasu; TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: This paper examines how negative shocks due to, for example, natural disasters, propagate through supply chains, applying a simulation technique to actual data on supply chains of Japanese firms. We obtained the following five results. (1) Network structures severely affect the speed of propagation in the medium run and total loss in the long run. The scale-free nature of the actual supply chain network, i.e., the power law degree distribution, leads to faster propagation, while dense links between firms within the community in the actual network slow propagation. (2) More intensive damages, i.e., larger damages to fewer firms, result in faster propagation than extensive damages of the same total size. (3) When substitution of undamaged suppliers for damaged suppliers is more difficult to achieve, propagation of negative shocks becomes substantially fast. (4) Direct damages in industrial regions promote faster propagation than those in rural regions. (5) Different sectoral damages cause large differences in the speed of propagation and the long-run loss. All of these results imply that the same size of direct damages by disasters can generate considerably different damages, depending on the structure of the supply chain network in the economy.
    Date: 2017–03
  48. By: Kharisma, Bayu; Satriawan, Elan; Arsyad, Lincolin
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the role of Indonesia’s Social Safety Net Scholarships Program to the school dropout rates in basic education in Indonesia using Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and the Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. Randomized controlled trials often suffer from two major complications, i.e., noncompliance and missing outcomes. One potential solution to this problem is a statistical concept called intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. One of the challenges of estimating the effect of the JPS program is the non-random allocation of the scholarships. The results showed that the JPS scholarship received by boys and girls per 100 children is proven to be effective in reducing the school dropout rates in basic education, given that levels of education are very vulnerable to dropping out of school as a result of the impact of the economic crisis, particularly in junior secondary school. Meanwhile, the JPS scholarships received by boys more effective to reduce school dropout rates than girls in reducing the school dropout rates, considering that boys are more involved during the economic crisis. The findings were the same in Java and Bali that the average number of boys per 100 children who received JPS scholarship has shown a more significant share in reducing the total dropout number compared to those who are outside the Java and Bali areas. Thus, it will reduce the households that tried to offset the impact of the economic crisis with a variety of coping strategies, especially using boy’s child labor in Java and Bali. Although the JPS scholarship effectively reduces the school dropout rates in basic education, but the influence is still felt inadequate. Therefore, the government needs to fix the target criteria for scholarships recipients to be more accurate and on target with the latest data update. This is important because accurate targeting will determine the effectiveness of the program. Furthermore, it has poor selection criteria carried out by the committee schools, therefore, it needs to be fixed in order to avoid any irregularities.
    Keywords: Social Safety Net Scholarships Program, School Dropout Rates, IFLS, ITT
    JEL: I21 I28
    Date: 2017–01

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