nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2017‒02‒19
53 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. How do inventor networks affect urban invention? By Laurent BERGÉ; Pascale ROUX; Nicolas CARAYOL
  2. Parents and Peers: Parental Neighbourhood- and School-Level Variation in Individual Neighbourhood Outcomes over Time By de Vuijst, Elise; van Ham, Maarten
  3. The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia: By Kosec, Katrina; Ghebru, Hosaena; Holtemeyer, Brian; Mueller, Valerie; Schmidt, Emily
  4. Agglomeration Effects and Liquidity Gradients in Local Rental Housing Markets By Ruf, Daniel
  5. Do House Prices Hedge Inflation in the US? A Quantile Cointegration Approach By Christina Christou; Rangan Gupta; Wendy Nyakabawo; Mark E. Wohar
  6. There And Back Again: Women's Marginal Commuting Costs By Stockton, Isabel; Bergemann, Annette; Brunow, Stephan
  7. How do housing purchase limits affect firm default risks in Mainland China? By Alfred Wong; David Leung; Calvin Ng
  8. Spatial Dependence in Apartment Offering Prices in Hamburg By Eilers, Lea
  9. A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Land Use Efficiency in Large and Small Municipalities By Guastella, Gianni; Pareglio, Stefano; Sckokai, Paolo
  10. Natural Amenities, Neighborhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income By Lee, Sanghoon; Lin, Jeffrey
  11. International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France By D'Albis, Hippolyte; Boubtane, Ekrame; Coulibaly, Dramane
  12. The diffusion of "green'' buildings in the housing market: empirics on the long run effects of energy efficiency regulation By Michelsen, Claus; El-Shagi, Makram; Rosenschon, Sebastian
  13. Persistent Occupational Hierarchies among Immigrant Worker Groups in the United States Labor Market By Postepska, Agnieszka; Vella, Francis
  14. Cultural Superstitions and Residential Real Estate Prices: Transaction-level Evidence from the US Housing Market By Brad R. Humphreys; Adam Nowak; Yang Zhou
  15. Does municipal mergers internalize spatial spillover effects? Empirical evidence from Japanese municipalities By Saito, Hitoshi; Hirota, Haruaki; Yunoue, Hideo; Miyaki, Miki
  16. Do Open Borders Tempt a Saint? Evidence from Schengen on Crime Rates in German Border Regions By Wassmann, Pia
  17. What Broker Charges Reveal about Mortgage Credit Risk By Berndt, Antje; Hollifield, Burton; Sandås, Patrik
  18. The Effect of Low-Income Housing on Neighborhood Mobility: Evidence from Linked Micro-Data By Brummet, Quentin O.; Bartalotti, Otávio C.
  19. Regression Discontinuity Designs with Clustered Data: Variance and Bandwidth Choice By Bartalotti, Otávio C.; Brummet, Quentin O.
  20. Benefits of dense labour markets - Evidence from transitions to employment in Germany By Niebuhr, Annekatrin
  21. Building effective clusters and industrial parks: By Zhang, Xiaobo
  22. Ambivalence in Place Attachment: The Lived Experiences of Residents in Declining Neighbourhoods Facing Demolition in Shenyang, China By Li, Xin; Kleinhans, Reinout; van Ham, Maarten
  23. Real-Estate Agent Commission Structure and Sales Performance By Gautier, Pieter; Siegmann, Arjen; van Vuuren , Aico
  24. Does the Burglar Also Disturb the Neighbor? Crime Spillovers on Individual Well-being By Bünnings, Christian; Avdic, Daniel
  25. An applied spatial agent-based model of administrative boundaries using SEAL By Bernardo Alves Furtado; Isaque Daniel Eberhardt Rocha
  26. : Innovation policies for regional structural change: Combining actor-based and system-based strategies By Isaksen, Arne; Tödtling, Franz; Trippl, Michaela
  27. Gender Bias in Education During Conflict Evidence from Assam By Prakarsh Singh; Sutanuka Roy
  28. Cost-benefit analysis of transport improvements in the presence of spillovers, matching and an income tax By Eliasson , Jonas; Fosgerau, Mogens
  29. Rethinking Detroit By Owens, Raymond; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel
  30. Migration, communities-on-the-move and international innovation networks: An empirical analysis of Spanish regions By D'Ambrosio, Anna; Montresor, Sandro; Parrilli, Mario Davide; Quatraro, Francesco
  31. The effect of Fe y Alegria on school achievement: exploiting a school lottery selection as a natural experiment By Pablo Lavado; Santiago Cueto; Micaela Wensjoe; Gustavo Yamada
  32. Do Political Parties Matter? - Evidence from German Communities By Wittrock, Christian; Riedel, Nadine; Simmler, Martin
  33. Vetoing and Inaugurating Policy Like Others Do: Evidence on Spatial Interactions in Voter Initiatives By Streif, Frank; Asatryan, Zareh; Havlik, Annika
  34. Regional Inequality, Convergence, and its Determinants - A View from Outer Space By Leßmann, Christian; Seidel, André
  35. How do police use race in traffic stops and searches? Tests based on observability of race By Ritter, Joseph A.
  36. Effects of Capital Flow on the Equity and Housing Markets in Hong Kong By Yin-Wong Cheung; Kenneth K. Chow; Matthew S. Yiu
  37. Market Reform and School Competition: The Lesson from Sweden By Wennström, Johan
  38. The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market By Peter Chinloy; William D. Larson
  39. Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement By Jo Blanden; Kistine Hansen; Sandra McNally
  40. Cities and rural transformation: A spatial analysis of rural youth livelihoods in Ghana: By Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Pahl, Stefan; Silver, Jed
  41. Migration within the EU: investigating the role of education, income differences and cultural barriers By Damiaan Persyn
  42. The Effects of Increasing Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Capital By Congressional Budget Office
  43. China’s rural – urban migration: Who gains, who loses? By Stober, Emmanuel Olusegun
  44. Migration in Kenya: beyond Harris-Todaro By Oyvat, Cem; wa Gĩthĩnji, Mwangi
  45. Impact of Crime on Firm Entry: Evidence from South Africa By Godfrey Mahofa; Asha Sundaram; Lawrence Edwards
  46. Additional Career Assistance and Educational Outcomes for Students in Lower Track Secondary Schools By Fitzenberger, Bernd; Licklederer, Stefanie
  47. Immigration and the Rise of American Ingenuity By Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas
  48. Denominational Schools and Returns to Education - Gender Socialization in Multigrade Classrooms? By Gerhardts, Ilka; Sunde, Uwe; Zierow, Larissa
  49. Constrained Tax Competition – Empirical Effects of the Minimum Tax Rate on the Tax Rate Distribution By von Schwerin, Axel; Buettner, Thiess
  50. Time-Induced Stress Effect on Financial Decision Making in Real Markets: The Case of Traffic Congestion By Gelman, Sergey; Kliger, Doron
  51. Combining growth and level data: an estimation of the population of Belgian cities between 1880 and 1970 By Stijn Ronsse; Samuel Standaert
  52. Perspectives on the role of the state in economic development: Taking stock of the “Developmental State†after 35 years: By Kyle, Jordan
  53. The cost of remoteness revisited By Franke, Richard

  1. By: Laurent BERGÉ; Pascale ROUX; Nicolas CARAYOL
    Abstract: Social networks are expected to matter for invention in cities, but empirical evidence is still puzzling. In this paper, we provide new results on urban patenting covering more than twenty years of European patents invented by nearly one hundred thousand inventors located in France. Elaborating on the recent economic literatures on peer effects and on games in social networks, we assume that the productivity of an inventor\'s efforts is positively affected by the efforts of his or her partners and negatively by the number of these partners\' connections. In this framework, inventors\' equilibrium outcomes are proportional to the square of their network centrality, which encompasses, as special cases, several well-known forms of centrality (Degree, Katz-Bonacich, Page-Rank). Our empirical results show that urban inventors benefit from their collaboration network. Their productivity increases when they collaborate with more central agents and when they have more collaborations. Our estimations suggest that inventors\' productivity grows sublinearly with the efforts of direct partners, and that they incur no negative externality from them having many partners. Overall, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in local inventors\' centrality raises future urban patenting by 13%.
    Keywords: invention, cities, network centrality, co-invention network, patent data
    JEL: O31 R11 D85
    Date: 2017
  2. By: de Vuijst, Elise (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology)
    Abstract: There is a link between the socio-economic outcomes of parents and their children over the life course. Intergenerational transmissions were repeatedly shown for socioeconomic characteristics and (dis)advantage, but recently also for residential neighbourhood status. Previous research from the Netherlands, Sweden, and the US shows that children from disadvantaged parental neighbourhoods experience long-term exposure to similar neighbourhoods as adults. However, there are multiple parallel socio-spatial contexts besides the residential space to which individuals are exposed on a daily basis, such as households, schools, and places of work and leisure, which may also influence their outcomes. For children and adolescents, the school environment may be especially important. This study contributes to the literature by examining the joint influence of the parental background, the parental neighbourhood, and a compositional measure of the school environment, on the neighbourhood trajectories of Dutch adolescents after leaving the parental home. We use longitudinal register data from the Netherlands to study a complete cohort of school-going home-leavers, who were followed from 1999 to 2012. We fit cross-classified multilevel models, in order to split up the variance components of schools and parental residential neighbourhoods over time. We find that poverty concentration in the parental neighbourhood plays an important role in determining their children's residential outcomes later in life. Some variation in individual neighbourhood outcomes at the level of the secondary school remains unexplained.
    Keywords: intergenerational neighbourhood effects, secondary school, peer effects, contextual effects, register data
    JEL: I30 J60 P46 R23
    Date: 2017–01
  3. By: Kosec, Katrina; Ghebru, Hosaena; Holtemeyer, Brian; Mueller, Valerie; Schmidt, Emily
    Abstract: How does the amount of land youth expect to inherit affect their migration and employment decisions? This paper explores this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using panel data from 2010 and 2014. We estimate a household fixed-effects model and exploit exogenous variation in the timing of land redistributions to overcome endogenous household decisions about how much land to bequeath to descendants. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long-distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas during this time. Inheriting more land is also associated with a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance plays a much more pronounced role in predicting rural-to-urban permanent migration and nonagricultural-sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets and in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers). Overall, the results suggest that inheritance strongly influences the spatial location and strategic employment decisions of youth.
    Keywords: agriculture, employment, youth, migration,
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Ruf, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes the relation between local liquidity in rental housing markets and urban agglomeration effects. Using listed rent offers from online market platforms, I study the cross-sectional variation of rental market liquidity. Local liquidity is negatively related to the distance to nearby located urban agglomeration centers, manifesting in a decreasing liquidity gradient. I show that agglomeration externalities expose local rental markets to a systematic liquidity risk. Furthermore, more thinly traded rental markets offer lower capitalization rates for investors.
    Keywords: Urban Agglomeration Effects, Liquidity, Rental Housing Market
    JEL: G12 R31 R40
    Date: 2017–02
  5. By: Christina Christou (School of Economics and Management, Open University of Cyprus, Cyprus); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa); Wendy Nyakabawo (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK)
    Abstract: This study analyses the long-run relationship between U.S house prices and non-housing Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the monthly period 1953 to 2016 using a quantile cointegration analysis. Our findings show evidence of instability in standard cointegration models, suggesting possibility of structural breaks and nonlinearity in the relationship between house prices and non-housing CPI. This motivates the use of a time-varying approach, namely, a quantile cointegration analysis, which allows the cointegrating coefficient to vary over the conditional distribution of house prices and simultaneously test for the existence of cointegration at each quantile. Our results suggest that the U.S non-housing CPI and house price index series are cointegrated at lower quantiles only, with house prices over-hedging inflation at these quantiles.
    Keywords: house prices, inflation, hedging, quantile cointegration
    JEL: C22 C32 E31 R31
    Date: 2017–02
  6. By: Stockton, Isabel; Bergemann, Annette; Brunow, Stephan
    Abstract: We use a partial-equilibrium model of job search with non-wage job attributes to estimate female workers' marginal willingness to pay to reduce commuting distance in Germany. This issue not only has implications for congestion policy, spatial planning and transport infrastructure provision, but is also relevant to our understanding of gender differences in labour market biographies in a more general sense. Gender differences in willingness to pay for job attributes could contribute significantly to observed disparities in a number of labour market behaviours and outcomes, such as participation, labour supply, wages and job mobility. Our analysis makes particular reference to heterogeneity by regional structure and local labour market conditions, and outlines ways of incorporating other types of heterogeneity into the analysis. Using a Cox model on a large administrative dataset, we find a marginal willingness to pay of e0.15 of women workers to reduce commuting distance by one kilometre.
    Keywords: Commuting, marginal willingness to pay for job attributes, on-the-job search, Cox relative risk model, partial likelihood estimation, gender and parenthood in job search models, heterogeneity in job mobility
    JEL: C41 J61 J16
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Alfred Wong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); David Leung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Calvin Ng (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: The rapid rise in the price of housing in Mainland China in the past decade raised concerns over the potential risks to the economy, leading to the implementation of a policy that placed a limit on housing purchases in many cities in 2010 and 2011. This paper, by using the difference-in-difference method, investigates the effect of the policy on firm default risks. It shows that the impact of housing purchase limits is not homogeneous across cities. While the policy has significantly lowered firm default risks in big cities (especially those cities caught in the first two rounds of policy implementation), it is ineffective in relatively small cities and, in some cases, even caused firm default risks to rise. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the purchase limit on firm default risks becomes weaker when sectors those firms belong to have limited links to the real estate sector. While the purchase limit focuses on default risks arising from the demand side, the risk arising from the housing supply side remains under the current fiscal system and land sales mechanism. Therefore, the housing purchasing limit should be supplemented by fiscal reforms that could mitigate land price increase and hence lower default risks in the long run.
    Keywords: Purchase Limit; Real Estate; Default Risk; Difference in Difference
    JEL: C23 G32 R38
    Date: 2016–09
  8. By: Eilers, Lea
    Abstract: This paper applies spatial econometric techniques to a hedonic apartment price model employing maximum-likelihood techniques. Accounting for spatial dependence of Apartment offering prices in Hamburg, Germany, the empirical analysis uses a semi-logarithmic price equation based on 4,029 offered apartments between 2008 and 2010. Starting with the traditional hedonic OLS-regression, we assess presence of spatial dependence using Lagrange Multiplier test statistics for error and lag dependence. These tests leads us to the spatial Durbin model and a spatial weight matrix based on the 15 nearest neighbors. Estimation results show that apartment prices exhibit a positive relationship with neighboring apartments. In addition to a high spatial autoregressive parameter, the estimated indirect effects (following the methodology of LeSage and Pace [2009]) show significant results. Consequently, a change in a single explanatory variable in a particular apartment not only affects the apartment price itself but also the price of neighboring apartments. Following the estimation results, spatial dependence is present, least- square estimates are biased and spatial hedonic models do explain more of the price variation with significant indirect effects in the spatial Durbin model.
    JEL: C23 R23 R31
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Guastella, Gianni; Pareglio, Stefano; Sckokai, Paolo
    Abstract: We estimate the relationship between urban spatial expansion and its socio-economic determinants in Lombardy, the most urbanised region of Italy (and one of the most urbanized of the European Union), at the municipality level. Test results suggest that this relationship varies significantly among municipalities of different size and findings support the hypothesis that larger ones are more efficient in managing land take. In particular, we find that the marginal land consumption per new household is inversely related to the size of the municipality and we link this evidence to the fact that, since more space is often available, small municipalities pay less institutional attention to the issue of land take and consequently internalise less the environmental externalities. This evidence calls for a reflection on the role of planning policies and the effectiveness of undifferentiated measures to contain land take, especially in the case of Italy, where the municipalities, more than 99% of which have less than 50,000 inhabitants, decide on land use transformations.
    Keywords: Land Take, City Size, Threshold Regression, Spatial Econometrics, Community/Rural/Urban Development, O18, Q15, R14,
    Date: 2017–02–08
  10. By: Lee, Sanghoon (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Lin, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880{2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. Third, downtown neighborhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the widespread decentralization of income in the mid-20th century and experienced an increase in income more quickly after 1980.
    Keywords: suburbanization; gentri cation; locational fundamentals; multiple equilibria
    JEL: N90 O18 R23
    Date: 2017–01–30
  11. By: D'Albis, Hippolyte (University of Toulouse I); Boubtane, Ekrame (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Coulibaly, Dramane (CEPII, Paris)
    Abstract: This article examines the causal relations between non-European immigration and the characteristics of the housing market in host regions. We constructed a unique database from administrative records and used it to assess annual migration flows into France's 22 administrative regions from 1990 to 2013. We then estimated various panel VAR models, taking into account GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as the main regional economic indicators. We find that immigration has no significant effect on property prices, but that higher property prices significantly reduce immigration rates. We also find no significant relationship between immigration and social housing supply.
    Keywords: immigration, property prices, social housing, panel VAR
    JEL: E20 F22 J61
    Date: 2017–01
  12. By: Michelsen, Claus; El-Shagi, Makram; Rosenschon, Sebastian
    Abstract: The impact of environmental regulation on market diffusion and market entry of "green'', innovative buildings in the housing market is studied using a unique data set of German residential buildings. Particularly, we analyze how energy efficiency regulation, in terms of minimum standards, affects energy-requirements in newly constructed buildings over time in both, the high and low quality housing segment. The data we use consists of a large sample of German apartment houses built between 1950 and 2005. We develop a new measure for regulation intensity and apply a panel-error-correction regression model to energy requirements of low and high quality housing. Our findings suggest that regulation is effective and significantly impacts technology adoption in low quality housing. Moreover, we find that regulation indirectly also positively affects energy efficiency in the high quality housing markets. This suggests that tighter building codes have a substantial impact on both, the entry and the diffusion of ``green'' buildings in the housing market.
    JEL: D20 Q40 R30
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Postepska, Agnieszka (Georgetown University); Vella, Francis (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the phenomenon of occupational hierarchies among immigrant labor groups in the United States. Using census data for 1940-2011 we document the persistent ranking of immigrant labor groups in major metropolitan areas reflected by their position in the empirical distribution of occupations based on the corresponding Duncan Socioeconomic Index values. Having established the existence and persistence of these hierarchies across regions and time we estimate a structural model of the allocation of immigrant labor to the occupational distribution on the basis of employers' perception of their perceived productivity. The model estimates suggest that while human capital characteristics are relevant determinants of location in the occupational distribution the key factor, and the cause of persistence, is the presence of immigrant networks in regional labor markets.
    Keywords: occupational hierarchies, immigrant networks, empirical distribution of occupations
    JEL: J24 J61 J62
    Date: 2017–01
  14. By: Brad R. Humphreys (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Adam Nowak (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Yang Zhou (West Virginia University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: In Chinese culture, the number 8 is considered lucky and 4 is considered unlucky. We analyze the relationship between the presence of 8s and 4s in addresses and transaction prices paid by Chinese home buyers and sellers in a novel setting, Seattle, Washington, from 1990 to 2015. In the absence of explicit identifiers for Chinese individuals, we develop a probabilistic model for identifying ethnicity based on name alone. The results indicate Chinese buyers pay a 1-2% premium for addresses that include an 8 and 1% less for properties with a 4 in the address. These results are not related to unobserved property quality as there is no premium when Chinese sell properties with an 8 in the address. These results suggest that some Chinese home buyers in Seattle retain their Chinese cultural superstitions.
    Keywords: Superstition; property value; supervised learning; hedonic price model
    JEL: D03 R21 R30
    Date: 2016–12
  15. By: Saito, Hitoshi; Hirota, Haruaki; Yunoue, Hideo; Miyaki, Miki
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether municipal mergers could internalize spatial spillover effects by comparing mergers before and after they occur, especially focusing on local public library services in Japan. A spatial spillover effect occurs when the benefit of a local public service spreads across not only its own administrative district but also into neighboring ones. A free rider problem among municipalities might be caused when a municipality makes a policy decision regarding how much it supplies to its own local public service under a decentralization system, recognizing the existence of a spatial spillover effect. Under such circumstances, spatial spillover effects might be internalized through municipal mergers. In Japan, the boundaries of administrative districts—including those of municipalities—have been determined based on traditional or historical reasons. However, large-scale municipal mergers took place in FY2004 and FY2005 due to serious fiscal deficits and a rapidly aging population. Consequently, the number of municipalities in Japan has decreased from 3,232 to 1,820. In light of these facts, we examine whether municipal mergers internalize spatial spillover effects, focusing on Japanese local public library services, by applying cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models. As a result, we found that there are spatial spillover effects in public library services both in FY2001 (before) and in FY2008 (after). We also found that the impact of such spillovers in FY2008 is smaller than that in FY2001. The results imply that municipal mergers could at least partially internalize spatial spillover effects among municipalities.
    Keywords: spatial spillover effect, municipal mergers
    JEL: H70 H75 H77
    Date: 2017–02–14
  16. By: Wassmann, Pia
    Abstract: The abolishment of passport and any other type of border controls at the German-Polish and German-Czech border in December 2007 provoked public concerns that open border would increase cross-border crime. Despite these widespread concerns, empirical research on whether the public fears were justified is still scarce. Based on data from the official German Police Crime Statistic, the paper evaluates whether the implementation of the Schengen Agreement in Poland and the Czech Republic in December 2007 affected crime rates in German regions bordering these two countries. Effects are identified by regression-adjusted difference-in-difference estimation on matched samples that allows evaluating the Schengen effects in a causal way. Preliminary results show that no significant Schengen effect can be observed for the most common types of criminal offenses. These findings suggest that in contrast to public concerns, German NUTS3 regions bordering Poland and the Czech Republic have not experienced an increase in crime as a result of the implementation of the Schengen Agreement of its Eastern neighbors. In light of the current discussion on the future of the Schengen zone and borderless Europe, this is quite an important result.
    JEL: R10 K40 F60
    Date: 2016
  17. By: Berndt, Antje (Australian National University); Hollifield, Burton (Carnegie Mellon University); Sandås, Patrik (SIFR)
    Abstract: Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokers charged higher percentage fees for loans that turned out to be riskier ex post, even when conditioning on other risk characteristics. High conditional fees reveal borrower attributes that are associated with high borrower risk, such as suboptimal shopping behavior, high valuation for the loan or high borrower-specific broker costs. Borrowers who pay high conditional fees are inherently more risky, not just because they pay high fees. We find a stronger association between conditional fees and delinquency risk when lenders have fewer incentives to screen bor- rowers, for purchase rather than refinance loans, and for loans originated by brokers who have less frequent interactions with the lender. Our findings shed light on the pro- posed QRM exemption criteria for risk retention requirements for residential mortgage securitizations.
    Keywords: Mortgage brokers; Loan performance; Subprime crisis; Credit risk retention; Qualied residential mortgages
    JEL: G12 G18 G21 G32
    Date: 2017–02–01
  18. By: Brummet, Quentin O.; Bartalotti, Otávio C.
    Abstract: While subsidized low-income housing construction provides affordable living conditions for poor households, many observers worry that building low-income housing in poor communities induces individuals to move to poor neighborhoods. We examine this issue using detailed, nationally representative microdata constructed from linked decennial censuses. Our analysis exploits exogenous variation in low-income housing supply induced by program eligibility rules for Low-Income Housing Tax Credits to estimate the effect of subsidized housing on neighborhood mobility patterns. The results indicate little evidence to suggest a causal effect of additional low-income housing construction on the characteristics of neighborhoods to which households move. This result is true for households across the income distribution, and supports the hypothesis that subsidized housing provides affordable living conditions without encouraging households to move to less-affluent neighborhoods than they would have otherwise.
    Date: 2016–05–13
  19. By: Bartalotti, Otávio C.; Brummet, Quentin O.
    Abstract: Regression Discontinuity designs have become popular in empirical studies due to their attractive properties for estimating causal effects under transparent assumptions. Nonetheless, most popular procedures assume i.i.d. data, which is unreasonable in many common applications. To fill this gap, we derive the properties of traditional local polynomial estimators in a fixed-G setting that allows for cluster dependence in the error term. Simulation results demonstrate that accounting for clustering in the data while selecting bandwidths may lead to lower MSE while maintaining proper coverage. We then apply our cluster-robust procedure to an application examining the impact of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits on neighborhood characteristics and low-income housing supply.
    Date: 2016–08–01
  20. By: Niebuhr, Annekatrin
    Abstract: Agglomeration economies may impact on productivity in different ways. Up to now, only a few papers try to provide evidence on the underlying mechanisms that might give rise to a positive correlation between agglomeration and wages. In this analysis we focus on the matching mechanism, i.e. the hypothesis that the size of the local labour market allows for better matching of job seekers and vacancies. Better matches in turn are supposed to give rise to higher productivity. We aim at providing new evidence on the importance of the matching mechanism and investigate the effects of the density of local labour markets on the wages of new employment relationships. The analysis is based on a large micro data set that offers detailed information on labour market biographies of workers in Germany. We apply the two-stage regression approach proposed by Combes et al. (2008) and distinguish between different types of transition, i.e. job-to-job transitions as well as transitions from shor tand long-term unemployment. The results point to rather small positive effects on productivity: a doubling of the employment density increases the productivity of new employment relationships by 1.1% to 1.4%. Moreover, the findings indicate that the benefits of a better match might only accrue to persons with a job-to-job transition as well as short-term unemployed. We detect no important impact of agglomeration for transitions from long-term nonemployment.
    JEL: J31 R23 C23
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: It is a daunting task to build institution and infrastructure over a short time period in developing countries. But in the absence of sound institutions and adequate infrastructure, it is difficult for economic transformation to take place. An alternative is to facilitate existing industrial clusters or build industrial parks by creating an enabling environment in a limited place. This paper reviews the commonly used strategies to build effective clusters and industrial parks. Clusters and industrial parks are location specific. Because they have an informational advantage, local governments are in a better position than the central government to identify and solve the bottlenecks that affect clusters and industrial parks. As clusters and industrial parks evolve, new bottlenecks emerge, thereby requiring new solutions. This in turns calls for continuous tinkering by local governments. It is important to place local governments and business communities in the driver’s seat of local economic growth so that they can watch out for and adjust to the bumps in the road ahead.
    Keywords: industrialization, economic development, economic policies,
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Li, Xin (Delft University of Technology); Kleinhans, Reinout (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the place attachment of residents in declining neighbourhoods that are facing demolition in Shenyang, China. Through in-depth interviews with homeowners living in danwei communities, or urban villages, at the pre-demolition phase, this paper reveals the strong connection between place attachment and both positive and negative lived experiences. The homeowners cleverly mobilise stable neighbourhood features and the challenges brought by neighbourhood changes to relieve their life constrains, such as the form of dwellings, low living costs and the place identity, which contributes to the development of place attachment. However, various forms of neighbourhood decline have negative effects on their place attachment. Urban redevelopment, therefore, confronts residents with a dilemma concerning the relative importance of their sense of rootedness in the neighbourhood and the desire to relocate to achieve better living conditions. By exploring this ambivalence, this paper displays how neighbourhood decline, and the impending demolition, affect residents' lived experiences and how residents in turn reconstruct their place attachment.
    Keywords: place attachment, ambivalence, lived experiences, declining neighbourhoods, urban redevelopment, China
    JEL: O18 R23
    Date: 2017–01
  23. By: Gautier, Pieter (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Siegmann, Arjen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); van Vuuren , Aico (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: Do higher real-estate agent fees imply better performance? This study uses a nation-wide dataset of residential real-estate transactions in the Netherlands from 1985 to 2011 to provide evidence against this. Brokers with a flat-fee structure who charge an up-front fee (which is substantially lower than the average fee of traditional brokers) and leave the viewings to the seller sell faster and at - on average - 2.7 percent higher prices. We correct for fixed house- and time effects. We provide additional evidence that the price difference is not due to a seller-selection effect.
    Keywords: real-estate brokers; broker incentives; housing; agency
    JEL: D80 L10 L80 R20 R30
    Date: 2017–02
  24. By: Bünnings, Christian; Avdic, Daniel
    Abstract: Indirect psychological effects induced by crime are likely to contribute significantly to the total costs of crime beyond the financial costs of direct victimization. Using detailed crime statistics for the whole of Germany and linking them to individual-level mental health information from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze whether local crime rates affect the mental health of residents. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in local violent crime rates significantly decreases individual mental well-being among residents by, on average, one percent. Smaller effects are found for property and total crime rates. Results are insensitive to migration and not isolated to urban areas, but are rather driven by less densely populated regions. In contrast to previous literature on vulnerability to crime, we find that men, more educated and singles react more to variation in violent crime rates in their neighborhoods. One potential explanation could be that those who are more fearful of crime have developed better coping strategies and, hence, react less to changes in crime.
    JEL: C23 I18 K42
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Bernardo Alves Furtado; Isaque Daniel Eberhardt Rocha
    Abstract: This paper extends and adapts an existing abstract model into an empirical metropolitan region in Brazil. The model - named SEAL: a Spatial Economic Agent-based Lab - comprehends a framework to enable public policy ex-ante analysis. The aim of the model is to use official data and municipalities spatial boundaries to allow for policy experimentation. The current version considers three markets: housing, labor and goods. Families' members age, consume, join the labor market and trade houses. A single consumption tax is collected by municipalities that invest back into quality of life improvements. We test whether a single metropolitan government - which is an aggregation of municipalities - would be in the best interest of its citizens. Preliminary results for 20 runs indicate that it may be the case. Future developments include improving performance to enable running of higher percentage of the population and a number of runs that make the model more robust.
    Date: 2017–02
  26. By: Isaksen, Arne; Tödtling, Franz; Trippl, Michaela
    Abstract: There seems to be a widespread consensus in academic and policy circles that the promotion of current economic strongholds and specialisations is no longer sufficient in order to ensure the long-term competitiveness of regions. New policy concepts such as smart specialisation emphasize the need to break with past practices and design and implement innovation strategies that boost regional structural change, i.e. policies that support regional economies to renew their industrial base by diversifying into new but related economic fields or creating entirely new sectors. This new strategic orientation for regional innovation policies has essentially been informed by evolutionary economic geography, which has offered novel insights into how regional economies transform over time and how new growth paths come into being. Applying a regional innovation system (RIS) perspective, recent work has enhanced our understanding of how such processes of regional economic change vary across different types of regions. RIS differ enormously in their capacity to develop new growth paths due to pronounced differences in endogenous potentials and varying abilities to attract and absorb exogenous sources for new path development. The policy implications following from these recent findings on the uneven geography of new path development have hardly been thoroughly discussed so far. General claims such as the need to avoid "one size fits all" strategies and develop place-based policies for regional industrial change remain vague and provide little guidance in this regard. The aim of this paper is to identify opportunities and limitations of regional innovation policies to promote new path development in different types of RIS. We distinguish between (1) organisationally thick and diversified RIS, (2) organisationally thick and specialized RIS and (3) thin RIS. Regarding path development, a distinction is drawn between the extenstion, modernization, importation, branching and creation of industrial paths, reflecting various degrees of radicalness of change in regional economies. The paper offers a conceptual analysis of conditions and influences that enable and constrain new path development in each RIS type and outlines the contours of policy strategies that are suitable for promoting new path development in those different types of RIS. Our point of departure is the well-known distinction between system-based and actor-based policy approaches. The former aims to improve the functioning of the RIS by targeting system failures, promoting local and non-local knowledge flows and adapting the organisational and institutional set-up of the RIS. Actor-based strategies, in contrast, support entrepreneurs and innovation projects by firms and other stakeholders. We argue that both strategies will have only a limited impact on regional economic change when applied alone. However, if they are combined, they are well suited to promote new path development. The paper discusses which specific combinations of system-based and actor-based policy strategies matter for different types of RIS. (authors' abstract)
    Date: 2016–10
  27. By: Prakarsh Singh; Sutanuka Roy
    Abstract: Using a large-scale novel panel dataset (2005–14) on schools from the Indian state of Assam, we test for the impact of violent conflict on female students’ enrollment rates. We find that a doubling of average killings in a district-year leads to a 13 per cent drop in girls’ enrollment rate with school fixed effects. Additionally, results remain similar when using an alternative definition of conflict from a different dataset. Gender differential responses are more negative for lower grades, rural schools, poorer districts, and for schools run by local and private unaided bodies.
    Keywords: Conflict; Education; Gender Discrimination; Human Capital; India
    JEL: I2 J1 O1
    Date: 2016–05
  28. By: Eliasson , Jonas (KTH); Fosgerau, Mogens (Technical University of Denmark)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the problem of measuring the welfare benefits of a transport improvement. We formulate and analyze a rich spatial model that allows for spillovers, matching and income tax, in a setting with multiple work and residential locations and very general worker heterogeneity. The conventional consumer surplus captures part of the benefits and is calculated based on predictions of changes in travel demand and transport costs. The issue is to determine which socalled wider impacts to add to this. We find that adding the change in total output as a wider impact leads to doublecounting of benefits. The output change due to spillovers should be added, while the output change due to matching is already partly included in the consumer surplus. These results are useful for applied costbenefit analysis of transport policies.
    Keywords: Agglomeration; Spillovers; Matching; Cost benefit analysis; Transport policy.
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2017–02–07
  29. By: Owens, Raymond; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel
    Abstract: We study the urban structure of the City of Detroit. Following several decades of decline, the city's current urban structure is clearly not optimal for its size, with a business district immediately surrounded by a ring of largely vacant neighborhoods. We propose a model with residential externalities that features multiple equilibria at the neighborhood level. In particular, developing a residential area requires the coordination of developers and residents, without which it may remain vacant even if its fundamentals are sound. We embed this mechanism in a quantitative spatial economics model and use it to rationalize current city allocations. We then use the model to evaluate existing strategic visions to revitalize Detroit, and to design alternative plans that rely on `development guarantees' to yield better outcomes. The widespread effects of these policies underscore the importance of using a general equilibrium framework to evaluate policy proposals.
    Keywords: cities; Manufacturing; Revitalization; Rustbelt; Urban Decline; urban structure
    JEL: I0 R0
    Date: 2017–02
  30. By: D'Ambrosio, Anna; Montresor, Sandro; Parrilli, Mario Davide; Quatraro, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of migration on innovation networks between regions and foreign countries. We posit that immigrants (emigrants) act as a transnational knowledge bridge between the host (home) regions and their origin (destination) countries, reinforcing their networking in innovation and facilitating their co-inventorship. We argue that the social capital of both the hosting and the moving communities reinforces such a bridging role, along with the already recognised effect of language commonality and migrants’ human capital. By combining patent data with national data on residents and electors abroad, we apply a gravity model to the co-inventorship between Spanish provinces (NUTS3 regions) and a number of foreign countries, in different periods of the last decade. Both immigrants and emigrants are found to affect this kind of innovation networking. The social capital of both the moving and the hosting communities actually moderate this impact in a positive way. The effect of migration is stronger for more skilled migrants and with respect to non-Spanish speaking countries, pointing to a language-bridging role of migrants. Overall, individual and community aspects combine in accounting for the impact of migration on international innovation networks.
    Date: 2017–01
  31. By: Pablo Lavado (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico); Santiago Cueto (Group for the Analysis of Development); Micaela Wensjoe (Group for the Analysis of Development); Gustavo Yamada (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico)
    Abstract: Fe y Alegria is an organization working in many developing countries as a public-private partnership. This study estimates the effect of one Fe y Alegria school in Peru on mathematics and reading comprehension among second grade primary pupils, between 2007 and 2012. The identification strategy is based on the fact that for this school Fe y Alegría conducted a lottery to determine which students would be accepted onto first grade. We could prepare our estimates only for one school where records for several years were available. The results show that this Fe y Alegria school generated substantial score gains for lottery winners, equivalent to 0.4 standard deviations. We also found that this effect has been increasing over time. In reading comprehension the effect was 0.17 s.d. in 2007 and 1.02 s.d. in 2012. In math, the effect was 0.29 s.d. in 2007 and 1.2 in 2012. These are promising results in a country where overall student achievement in standardized tests has been low, and where discussions on under what conditions may public partnerships result in better educational outcomes.
    Keywords: education, public-private partnerships, quality education, Fe y Alegría, math performance, private school, reading comprehension performance
    JEL: C13 C33 C93 I21 I22
    Date: 2017–02
  32. By: Wittrock, Christian; Riedel, Nadine; Simmler, Martin
    Abstract: The paper aims to test whether partisanship affects policy outcomes at the local level. While the literature has presented comprehensive evidence for partisan effects on policy outcomes at the state and federal level, recent findings suggest that partisan effects may be absent at the city and municipality level. Using detailed data on public goods and service spending, we assess the link between the partisanship of local councils and the composition of public good spending of German localities. Firstly, we estimate panel data models assessing whether changes in partisanship impact per-capita-spending in different spending-categories. Secondly, we investigate whether left-wing or right-wing communities differ in their spending response to exogenous revenue shocks during their legislative term (among others induced by changes of the personal income tax base assigned to communities). Using propensity score matching and weighting, the approach compares responses in comparable municipalities, which differ in the partisan composition of their local council. Based on both strategies, we find moderate partisan effects only.
    JEL: H70 H40 R50
    Date: 2016
  33. By: Streif, Frank; Asatryan, Zareh; Havlik, Annika
    Abstract: A sizeable literature studies whether governments strategically interact with each other through policy-diffusion, learning, fiscal and yardstick competition. This paper asks whether, in the presence of direct democratic institutions, spatial interactions additionally result from voters' direct actions. The proposed mechanism is that the voters' actions in vetoing a decision or inaugurating a preferred policy by a binding initiative in their jurisdiction can potentially have spillover effects on the actions of voters and special interest groups of neighboring jurisdictions. Utilizing data on around 1,800 voter-petitions across over 12,000 German municipalities in 2002-09, we find that a jurisdiction's probability of hosting a petition is positively driven by the neighbors' direct democratic activity. These effects are persistent, and are stronger for more visible instruments of direct democracy. The interactions are also mostly driven by petitions in same or similar policy areas, and are stronger in towns with relatively more per capita newspapers.
    JEL: D72 D78 R50
    Date: 2016
  34. By: Leßmann, Christian; Seidel, André
    Abstract: This paper provides a new data set of regional income inequalities within countries based on satellite nighttime light data. We first empirically study the relationship between luminosity data and regional incomes for those countries where regional income data are available. We subsequently use our estimation results for an out-of-sample prediction of regional incomes based on the luminosity data, which allows us to investigate regional income differentials in developing countries as well, where official income data are lacking. Based on the predicted incomes, we calculate commonly used measures of regional inequality within countries. Investigating changes in the dispersion of regional incomes over time reveals that approximately 71-80% of all countries face sigma-convergence. Finally, we study different major determinants of the level of regional inequality based on cross-section data. Panel regressions investigate the within-country changes in inequality, i.e., the determinants of the convergence process. We find evidence for an N-shaped relationship between development and regional inequality. Geography, mobility and trade openness are also highly important.
    JEL: D30 O11 R12
    Date: 2016
  35. By: Ritter, Joseph A.
    Abstract: Preprint of forthcoming: Journal of Economic Behavior Organization DOI: .005
    Keywords: racial bias, traffic stop, search, discrimination, police, Public Economics, J15, K14, K42,
    Date: 2017–02
  36. By: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong); Kenneth K. Chow (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Matthew S. Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: The revival of strong capital flows to emerging economies in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 has rekindled the debate on the adverse effects of excessive capital inflows. We study the effects of official and illicit capital flows on Hong Kong, which is a small and open economy with minimal restrictions on cross-border fund movements. To illustrate the effects of different types of capital flows, we study official and illicit flows on Hong Kong¡¯s equity and residential housing markets. It is found that the official and illicit capital flow measures reflect different facets of flow movements and exhibit differential effects on the equity and residential housing markets. The results highlight the complexity of managing capital flows, and the relevance of policies targeting specific sectors.
    Keywords: Capital flows, currency-based measure, illicit flow measure, equity market, real estate market
    JEL: F32 E42 G15 R30
    Date: 2017–01
  37. By: Wennström, Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: In a radical school choice reform in 1992, Sweden’s education system was opened to private competition from independent for-profit and non-profit schools funded by vouchers. Competition was expected to produce higher-quality education at lower cost, in both independent and public schools. This article analyzes whether the school choice reform was institutionally secured against school competition based on phenomena that are unrelated with educational quality. Interviews with key personalities reveal that the architects of the reform overemphasized the virtues of market reforms and therefore did not deem it necessary to establish appropriate rules and institutions for school competition. Instead, ill-conceived grading and curriculum reforms paved the way for moral hazard resulting in grade inflation and other forms of unintended school competition. The lesson from Sweden’s experience is that market reforms of public services production, particularly those that introduce for-profit producers, must account for how institutions and incentive structures affect behaviour.
    Keywords: School choice; grade inflation; institutions; hazardous adjustment
    JEL: D02 D62 I28
    Date: 2016–12–05
  38. By: Peter Chinloy (Temple University); William D. Larson (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
    Abstract: The microstructure of the housing market includes periodic buyer liquidity constraints, high transaction costs, and bilateral negotiations on price and timing. These separately introduce daily price volatility and negative serial correlation that is suppressed at a monthly frequency. In a daily U.S. house price index, the annualized standard deviation of returns is 27 percent, versus 3 percent for monthly data. We attribute the daily volatility to repeating calendar-based liquidity price premiums (8 percentage points), transaction costs (7 pp), estimation and composition error (2 pp), and idiosyncratic shocks (10 pp). Monthly house price indices suggest housing has exceptionally high risk-adjusted returns. A daily index brings Sharpe ratios in line with other assets.
    Keywords: liquidity, market microstructure, daily house price index, mortgages, volatility
    JEL: G21 G22
    Date: 2017–02
  39. By: Jo Blanden; Kistine Hansen; Sandra McNally
    Abstract: Childcare quality is often thought to be important for influencing children's subsequent attainment at school. The English Government regulates the quality of early education by setting minimum levels of qualifications for workers and grading settings based on a national Inspectorate (OfSTED). This paper uses administrative data on over two million children to relate performance on national teacher assessments at ages 5 and 7 to the quality characteristics of the nursery they attended before starting school. Results show that staff qualifications and childcare quality ratings have a weak association with teacher assessments at school, based on comparing children who attended different nurseries but attended the same primary school. Our results suggest that although children's outcomes are related to the nursery they attend, which nurseries are good cannot be predicted by staff qualifications and OfSTED ratings; the measures of quality that Government has focused on.
    Keywords: childcare quality, educational attainment
    JEL: J13 I20
    Date: 2017–02
  40. By: Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Pahl, Stefan; Silver, Jed
    Abstract: Urbanization has had a major impact on livelihoods in Ghana and throughout Africa as a whole. However, much research on urbanization has focused on effects occurring within cities, while there is insufficient understanding of its effects on rural areas. This paper examines the impact of urbanization—through a typology of districts—on rural livelihoods in Ghana. The country’s districts are classified into seven spatial groups according to the size of the largest city in each district in southern and northern Ghana. The paper does not address rural–urban migration but instead focuses on the livelihoods of rural households. In contrast to the extensive literature focusing on the effects of urbanization on individuals, we assess its impacts on individual rural households as a whole, with a particular focus on youth-headed households. Many rural households have shifted their primary employment from agriculture to nonagriculture, especially in the more urbanized South. In contrast, change in livelihood diversification within rural households with family members’ primary employment in both agriculture and nonagriculture appears much less rapid. Rural youth-headed households are significantly more associated with the transition away from agriculture than households headed by other adults, and such trends are stronger in locations closer to larger cities, particularly in the South. Although the nonagricultural economy is becoming increasingly important for rural households, contrary to expectations, the probit model analysis in this paper shows that agricultural production does not appear to be more intensified—in terms of modern input use—in the more urbanized South, and youth do not show greater agricultural technology adoption than other adults, indicating that the constraints against modern input adoption may be binding for all farmers, including youth and farmers in more urbanized locations. We also find that rural poverty rates are consistently lower among nonagricultural households, and the share of middle-class population is also disproportionally higher among rural nonagricultural households than agricultural households. While the probit analysis confirms the positive relationship between being a nonagricultural household and being nonpoor or becoming middle class after controlling for all other factors, education seems to play the biggest role. As rural youth become more educated and more households shift from agriculture to the rural nonfarm economy, a different range of technologies for agricultural intensification is necessary for agriculture to be attractive for youth. A territorial approach and related policies that integrate secondary cities and small towns with the rural economy deserve more attention such that the diversification of rural livelihoods can become a viable alternative or complement to rural–urban migration for youth.
    Keywords: urbanization, youth, employment, off farm employment, nonfarm income,
    Date: 2017
  41. By: Damiaan Persyn (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: There exist marked differences in the educational attainment of immigrants, depending on both the level and distribution of income in the country of origin and destination. This paper estimates an education-specific gravity equation for migration between European countries. Given the lack of data on migration flows by level of education, these are proxied by the difference in resident migrants by nationality and level of education, between the years 2000 and 1990. I find that highly educated individuals are more likely to migrate. They are less sensitive to geographical and cultural distance as barriers to migration, but are not unambiguously more responsive to wage differentials. Controlling for education-specific wage differences between origin and destination removes only part of the observed differences in migration behaviour between education groups.
    Keywords: International migration, Random utility model, Education
    JEL: F22 J61 O15 C25
    Date: 2017–02
  42. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: In 2008, the federal government took control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that help finance the majority of mortgages in the United States, by placing them into conservatorship. In this report, CBO analyzes an illustrative policy option that would allow each of the two GSEs to increase its capital by up to $50 billion over 10 years. Although that option would decrease the risk of disruptions to the mortgage market, it would increase the government’s exposure to the GSEs’ losses and thus would have a budgetary cost.
    JEL: R28 R31
    Date: 2016–10–20
  43. By: Stober, Emmanuel Olusegun
    Abstract: There is a price to pay for any and every country to develop. This price can be said to have been duly paid by migrant workers in China. The benefit of such price is the stamping out of extreme poverty by 94% from 1990 – 2015. This study is embodied by the Lewis Structural Change Model and looks at China’s population control programs – the restriction on internal labor mobility, its income inequality implication and economy development. The research reveals how the sacrifices of the migrant workers payoff in reforming the economic conditions in the rural areas; this points to the reasons why the rural income and development are highly dependent on migrant remittance and why China’s economy development would not have been possible without labor migration.
    Keywords: China; Internal migration; Migrant workers; Remittance; Wages discrimination
    JEL: F24 J61 J8 O15 R23
    Date: 2016–11
  44. By: Oyvat, Cem; wa Gĩthĩnji, Mwangi
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of agrarian structures on the migration behavior and destination of rural household heads and individuals in Kenya. To explore the complexity of migration we extend the standard Harris-Todaro framework to account for land inequality and size as well as type of destination. Using logistic regressions, we show that Kenyan household heads born in districts with higher land inequality, smaller per capita land and lower per capita rural income are more likely to migrate. We show that for individuals whose incomes are squeezed by larger land inequality, migration from villages to suburban Nairobi, smaller cities, and villages in different districts could be a preferable strategy to migrating to Metro Nairobi. The impact of land inequality is more significant for male than female migration. Moreover, the level of education, age, marital status, gender, religion and distance to Nairobi play a role in migration behavior.
    Keywords: Migration; Distribution; Agrarian structures
    Date: 2017–01–25
  45. By: Godfrey Mahofa; Asha Sundaram; Lawrence Edwards
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the relationship between crime and the entry of firms across local municipalities in South Africa. We use data on the incidence of crime, sourced from the South African Police Service, and a unique database of business registrations over the period 2003 to 2011, to show that crime reduces business entry. These results are robust to the use of rainfall shocks as an instrumental variable for crime, in order to control for potential bias arising from the fact that crime might be a consequence, rather than a cause of the entry of firms. This paper highlights the importance of strong local institutions that can lower the costs of doing business for business dynamism. Our study has implications for employment and economic growth at the regional level and hence for dealing with regional inequality.
    Keywords: crime, Business Activity, Regional Institutions
    JEL: R12 O18 L11
    Date: 2016–12
  46. By: Fitzenberger, Bernd; Licklederer, Stefanie
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of Additional Career Assistance (ACA) on educational outcomes for students in Lower Track Secondary Schools (LTSS) for the area of Freiburg (Germany). The analysis uses individual data during the late 2000's on grades in LTSS and educational outcomes after leaving LTSS. Compared to LTSS students in the surroundings of Freiburg, students in the City of Freiburg receive more intensive information, counselling, and mentoring regarding the school-to-work transition and vocational training (ACA). The goal of ACA is to foster the transition to the labor market. Many LTSS students with good grades participate in additional teaching during the last two years in LTSS, thus preparing themselves for a higher educational degree after leaving LTSS. We investigate the effect of ACA on grade development in LTSS and on educational upgrading after leaving LTSS. Our empirical analysis shows negligible effects of ACA on educational outcomes, which, however, mask quite heterogeneous effects. In fact, educational outcomes worsen (improve) for German students who (do not) participate in additional teaching. We find no significant effects for students with a migration background.
    JEL: I20 J24 J48
    Date: 2016
  47. By: Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas
    Abstract: This paper builds on the analysis in Akcigit, Grigsby, and Nicholas (2017) by using U.S. patent and Census data to examine macro and micro-level aspects of the relationship between immigration and innovation. We construct a measure of "foreign born expertise" and show that technology areas where immigrant inventors were prevalent between 1880 and 1940 experienced more patenting and citations between 1940 and 2000. We also show that immigrant inventors were more productive during their life cycle than native born inventors, although they received significantly lower levels of labor income than their native born counterparts. Overall, the contribution of foreign born inventors to US innovation was substantial, but we also find evidence of an immigrant inventor wage-gap that cannot be explained by differentials in productivity.
    JEL: N11 N12 O31 O40
    Date: 2017–02
  48. By: Gerhardts, Ilka; Sunde, Uwe; Zierow, Larissa
    Abstract: Denominational schools are an important provider of education in many countries around the world. Due to their focus, these schools often operate with multigrade classes, in which more than one age cohort is taught in one classroom. Multigrade classes are a cost-effective way to provide education and play a crucial role in education policy in the context of demographic change. This paper presents estimates of the causal effect of attending denominational schools with multigrade classes on schooling and short-run labor market outcomes. The analysis combines administrative records of schools with comprehensive population census data, and exploits the abolition of denominational schools in the Saarland, a German state, in 1969, for identification of the effect. The findings document significantly detrimental effects on final grade attainment, labor market participation and socioeconomic mobility. Notably, the negative impact is most pronounced in the outcomes of girls. Disentangling the confounding role of variation between Catholic and Protestant schools suggests that this effect might be driven by socialization early in life.
    JEL: I26 I28 I21
    Date: 2016
  49. By: von Schwerin, Axel; Buettner, Thiess
    Abstract: The paper explores the effect of a minimum tax rate on the tax policy of jurisdictions competing for investment and business location. The testing ground is the universe of local municipalities in the German federation which enjoy the autonomy to set the tax-rate of the local business tax. After experiencing problems with profit-shifting between jurisdictions, in 2004 a federal reform forced municipalities to charge a minimum tax rate on local business profits. As a consequence, low-tax municipalities, i.e. municipalities with tax rates below the minimum, had to adjust their tax policy. In the light of the theoretical literature on minimum tax rates in tax competition, we explore whether the reform has altered the tax-rate distribution beyond the effect on low-tax jurisdictions. More specifically, we test whether municipalities with tax rates above the minimum rate have reviewed their tax policy and decided to set higher tax rates. The empirical results point to significant effects in this regard. We show that the distribution has become more compressed in the bottom part after the reform. Moreover, our results provide quasi-experimental evidence on tax-competition effects in the sense that jurisdictions competing with low-tax jurisdictions have responded with setting higher tax-rates.
    JEL: H71 H23 H25
    Date: 2016
  50. By: Gelman, Sergey; Kliger, Doron
    Abstract: We study the role of stress induced by time constraints on investors’ decision making. The need to perform contemporaneous tasks and external interference such as arriving unexpectedly late to work, might exacerbate acute stress and its impact on decision making. Accumulated laboratory research suggests that time stress may impact financial decisions, mainly in the loss domain. We contribute to the literature studying this issue in real financial markets, as the real markets distinguish themselves from laboratory experiments through repeated situations, aggregation of outcomes and extremely high monetary stakes. We use data on traffic congestion, weather conditions and derivative prices. Our main dependent variable is the slope of the implied volatility function (IVF) of options on RTS futures (cf. Bollen and Whaley, 2004) at the left-hand side of the volatility smile. We find that, controlling for relevant factors, this slope at open of the main trading session is higher subsequent to morning traffic jams, suggesting that investors under stress assign higher weights to extreme loss scenarios.
    JEL: G02 G13 G14
    Date: 2016
  51. By: Stijn Ronsse; Samuel Standaert (-)
    Abstract: Economists that study long-term changes during the 19th and 20th century are fundamentally restricted by the availability of qualitative data, as the latter is often inversely proportional to quality. This is further compounded by administrative changes that alter what exactly is being measured over time as well as an overall decrease of data availability the further we go back in time. This is particularly inconvenient in historical population data, as census data is often only available ever decade. As a result, researchers are forced to either impute qualitative data, or otherwise combine datasets of varying quality in some way. In this article, we demonstrate the versatility of state-space models in addressing these problems, enabling us to compose large data series of a high quality. Moreover, unlike more simple techniques it also provides an estimate of the reliability of the results, allowing any subsequent analyses to take this into account. We illustrate this by combining growth and level data on the population of Belgian cities into a dataset that contains yearly estimates of the population of over 2600 cities from 1880 to 1970.
    Keywords: Population, Data quality, State-space model, Bayesian econometrics
    Date: 2017–01
  52. By: Kyle, Jordan
    Abstract: This review evaluates the role of the state in development, offering a new framework for understanding what capabilities states need to overcome different types of market failures. This framework is employed to understand the successes and failures of state-led development in Malaysia. The review addresses three key questions. First, what do we know about developmental states and why they emerged? Second, what have developmental states achieved? In answering this question, I look not only at growth but also at structural transformation, economic “upgrading,†equity, and human capability enhancement. In contrast to the idea of a single “East Asian model†of development, I find five distinct development trajectories. Third, how did developmental states utilize state structures to pursue development? To answer this final question, I examine in depth the history of state-led development in Malaysia—including agricultural, industrial, and social policies. This case study sheds light on what specific institutional and political capacities helped Malaysia to improve productivity in agriculture, expand the manufacturing sector, and reduce inequality. It also explores why Malaysia has been less successful in developing linkages with the export-based manufacturing sector.
    Keywords: governance, economic policies, agricultural policies, economic development,
    Date: 2017
  53. By: Franke, Richard
    Abstract: Redding and Sturm (2008) use the German division as a natural experiment to study the importance of market access for regional development. They show empirically that cities close to the East-West German border experienced a significant decline in population growth due to division. I argue that their results are driven by the internal migration of refugees in the 1950s rather than the loss of market access. In fact, the treatment effect estimated by Redding and Sturm (2008) disappears completely once the refugee share in 1950 and boundary changes of sample cities are taken into account.
    Keywords: Market Access,Regional Growth,Internal Migration
    JEL: F15 N94 R12 R23
    Date: 2017

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