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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri); Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the contribution of housing and mortgage debt to the macroeconomic performance of the United States economy during the Great Recession, with a particular eye toward consumption. The importance of housing is evaluated using a quantitative, heterogeneous agent model with search frictions in the housing market and equilibrium mortgage default. The model successfully replicates key features of the U.S.\ economy prior to the Great Recession and can rationalize the dynamics of housing, debt, and consumption during the crisis. The increase in labor market risk and deterioration in housing finance both play pivotal but different roles in explaining the steep recession and slow recovery. Endogenous housing illiquidity is necessary to explain the magnitude of the house price drop, the spike in foreclosures, the fall in consumption, and the evolution of homeownership. The model also substantiates and explains findings from the literature on the sensitivity of consumption to house price movements and how the degree of household indebtedness affects this relationship. Lastly, the Federal Reserve's policy of Quantitative Easing is evaluated and found to have substantial effects on house price and consumption dynamics. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1564&r=ure |
| By: | Jussila Hammes , Johanna (VTI); Pyddoke , Roger (VTI); Swärdh, Jan-Erik (VTI) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of increased public transport supply on private car use using micro data on individuals from 17 mid-sized cities in Sweden. The data is obtained from Swedish administrative registers (tax and odometer), which exists for all Swedish adults and cars, and information of public transport supply, namely bus kilometres supplied. In a description of the data we see that that the increase of private Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) per inhabitant stagnate in the sample cities towards the end of the period 1997-2011. Our hypothesis is that changes in the supply of public transport is the main cause for this stagnation. The probability of owning a car and the demand functions for VKT are estimated. The principal finding is that private car use is reduced by increased supply of bus kilometres with an average elasticity ranging from -0.01 to -0.04. This effect is larger in peripheral areas and in larger cities. In small cities the effect is almost nil. We conclude that public transport has an effect on the private VKT of inhabitants but that the impact is relatively small and cannot be the main cause for the stagnating increase of private VKT per inhabitant in the sample cities. |
| Keywords: | Heckman selection model; Private car use; Public transport; Sweden; Vehicle kilometres travelled |
| JEL: | R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_025&r=ure |
| By: | Foote, Christopher L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Loewenstein, Lara (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | The reallocation of mortgage debt to low-income or marginally qualified borrowers plays a central role in many explanations of the early 2000s housing boom. We show that such a reallocation never occurred, as the distribution of mortgage debt with respect to income changed little even as the aggregate stock of debt grew rapidly. Moreover, because mortgage debt varies positively with income in the cross section, equal percentage increases in debt among high- and low-income borrowers meant that wealthy borrowers accounted for most new debt in dollar terms. Previous research stressing the importance of low-income borrowing was based on the inflow of new mortgage originations alone, so it could not detect offsetting outflows in mortgage terminations that left the allocation of debt stable over time. And while defaults on subprime mortgages played an important part in the financial crisis, the data show that subprime lending did not cause a reallocation of debt toward the poor. Rather, subprime lending prevented a reallocation of debt toward the wealthy. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E03 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2016–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:16-12&r=ure |
| By: | Sá, Filipa |
| Abstract: | I use newly-released administrative data on properties owned by overseas companies to study the effect of foreign investment on the housing market in England and Wales. To estimate the causal effect, I construct an instrument for foreign investment based on economic shocks abroad. Foreign investment is found to have a positive effect on house price growth. This effect is present at different percentiles of the distribution of house prices and is stronger in local authorities where housing supply is less elastic. Foreign investment is also found to reduce the rate of home ownership. There is no evidence of an effect on the housing stock or the share of vacant homes. |
| Keywords: | foreign investors; House Prices |
| JEL: | F21 R21 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11658&r=ure |
| By: | Marine de Talancé (PSL, University Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, DIAL UMR 225) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the factors driving parental perceptions about school quality in rural Pakistan. Using a three-period longitudinal database on rural households in three districts, this study estimates different models to answer this question: ordered and generalised ordered logit specifications as well as linear probability models with household and school fixed effects. The results are preoccupying as we observe strong differences between privileged and disadvantaged households. Only the richest households take into account test scores when forming their perceptions. This finding suggests that access to information is unequal and could penalize the poorest children. Both rich and poor households tend to overestimate the quality of private schools which can explain the recent growth in private enrollment. Other school characteristics such as the size of the school, the medium of instruction (English teaching) or school infrastructure are also valued by parents. |
| Keywords: | Education, Inequalities, Pakistan, Perceptions, Private Schools, Schooling quality, Test scores |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201614&r=ure |
| By: | Steven, Bednar (Elon University); Gicheva, Dora (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Mentoring, and to a greater extent support from high-level administrators, has been shown to decrease worker turnover in general, but little is known about its differential impact on minority workers. Utilizing four waves of the Schools and Staffing Survey, we uncover a novel pattern of the effect of workplace support on turnover in the market for public school teachers. Support is most strongly associated with retention for minority teachers working in schools where minorities are under-represented. This effect is pronounced for teachers new to the profession and those in rural areas. This indicates that workplace support is essential in maintaining or growing minority representation in relatively less-diverse organizations. |
| Keywords: | teacher; turnover; workplace support; workplace diversity |
| JEL: | I21 J45 J62 M54 |
| Date: | 2016–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2016_005&r=ure |
| By: | Sodini, Paolo; van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Vestman, Roine; von Lilienfeld-Toal, Ulf |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the economic benefits of home ownership. Exploiting a quasi-experiment surrounding privatization decisions of municipally-owned apartment buildings, we obtain random variation in home ownership for otherwise similar buildings with similar tenants. We link the tenants to their tax records to obtain information on demographics, income, mobility patterns, housing wealth, financial wealth, and debt. These data allow us to construct high-quality measures of consumption expenditures. Home ownership causes households to move up the housing ladder, work harder, and save more. Consumption increases out of housing wealth are concentrated among the home owners who sell subsequent to privatization and among those who receive negative income shocks, evidencing a collateral effect. |
| Keywords: | collateral effect; home ownership; housing wealth; mobility; MPC |
| JEL: | D12 D31 E21 G11 H31 J22 R21 R23 R51 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11656&r=ure |
| By: | Tony Beatton; Michael P. Kidd; Stephen Machin; Dipa Sarkar |
| Abstract: | This paper reports new evidence on the causal link between education and male youth crime using individual level state-wide administrative data for Queensland, Australia. Enactment of the Earning or Learning education reform of 2006, with a mandatory increase in minimum school leaving age, is used to identify a causal impact of schooling on male youth crime. The richness of the matched (across agency) individual level panel data enables the analysis to shed significant light on the extent to which the causal impact reflects incapacitation, or whether more schooling acts to reduce crime after youths have left compulsory schooling. The empirical analysis uncovers a significant incapacitation effect, as remaining in school for longer reduces crime whilst in school, but also a sizeable crime reducing impact of education for young men in their late teens and early twenties. We also carry out analysis by major crime type and differentiate between single and multiple offending behaviour. Crime reduction effects are concentrated in property crime and single crime incidence, rather than altering the behaviour of the recalcitrant persistent offender. |
| Keywords: | youth crime, schooling |
| JEL: | I2 K42 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1456&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas GRJEBINE (Cepii); Francois Geerolf (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | We use variations in property taxes in a panel of more than 20 countries, and over 40 years, to investigate one source of joint determination between house prices and output, employment, consumer spending, investment and the trade balance. We use a narrative approach to identify changes in property taxes that are automatic or politically motivated, and thus exogenous to the business cycle. We also use the easiness with which property tax increases can be passed on to renters depending on landlord-tenants regulations across countries as a source of overidentification. In preliminary results, we find large non-ricardian effects. Property tax increases are highly contractionary and the economic effect is large, with a multiplier strictly higher than one. Regressions of housing on macroeconomic aggregates, plagued by the omission of the joint effect of property taxes, would suggest a marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth of about 9 cents, and a marginal propensity to invest out of housing collateral of 6 cents. These results are in line with various micro or macroeconomic studies. We try to discuss these results through the lens of macroeconomic theory. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1588&r=ure |
| By: | Hess, Stephane (Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds); Börjesson, Maria (KTH) |
| Abstract: | Numerous cities around the world are considering the implementation of road pricing to ease urban traffic congestion, following on from the success in cities such as London and Singapore. However, policy makers are also all too aware of the generally negative public opinion towards such measures. This study makes use of data collected in four cities (two in Sweden, one in Finland and one in France) using a very consistent survey probing for citizens’ attitudes towards pricing. We find very strong similarities across the four cities in terms of a number of underlying attitudinal constructs that help explain people’s answers in a hypothetical referendum on congestion pricing. The similarities across cities indicate that the increase in the opinion towards congestion pricing once they are introduced is not primarily an effect of changes in underlying attitudes, changes in how the underlying attitudes influence the support for congestion pricing, or differences in anticipated versus experienced or perceived self-interest. Instead this effect seems to be caused by a status quo acceptance, tending to increase the support for the current situation. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charging; Pricing acceptability; Road user attitudes |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_024&r=ure |
| By: | Filipe Campante; David Yanagizawa-Drott |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of international long-distance flights on the global spatial allocation of economic activity. To identify causal effects, we exploit variation due to regulatory and technological constraints which give rise to a discontinuity in connectedness between cities at a distance of 6000 miles. We show that these air links have a positive effect on local economic activity, as captured by satellite-measured night lights. To shed light on how air links shape economic outcomes, we first present evidence of positive externalities in the global network of air links: connections induce further connections. We then find that air links increase business links, showing that the movement of people fosters the movement of capital. In particular, this is driven mostly by capital flowing from high-income to middle-income (but not low-income) countries. Taken together, our results suggest that increasing interconnectedness generates economic activity at the local level by inducing links between businesses, but also gives rise to increased spatial inequality locally, and potentially globally. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, air travel, connections, economic activity, local development, cities, business links, FDI, convergence, spatial inequality |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F23 F63 O11 O18 O19 O47 R11 R12 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:uceswp:016&r=ure |
| By: | Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Duranton, Gilles; Gobillon, Laurent |
| Abstract: | We propose a new non-parametric approach to estimate the production function for housing. Our estimation treats output as a latent variable and relies on the first-order condition for profit maximisation with respect to non-land inputs by competitive house builders. For parcels of a given size, we compute housing by summing across the marginal products of non-land inputs. Differences in non-land inputs are caused by differences in land prices that reflect differences in the demand for housing across locations. We implement our methodology on newly-built single-family homes in France. We find that the production function for housing is reasonably well, though not perfectly, approximated by a Cobb-Douglas function and close to constant returns. After correcting for differences in user costs between land and non-land inputs and taking care of some estimation concerns, we estimate an elasticity of housing production with respect to non-land inputs of about 0.80. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Production function |
| JEL: | R14 R31 R32 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11669&r=ure |
| By: | Angrist, Joshua; Battistin, Erich; Vuri, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variables (IV) estimates show strong class size effects in Southern Italy. But Italy's Mezzogiorno is distinguished by manipulation of standardized test scores as well as by economic disadvantage. IV estimates suggest small classes increase manipulation. We argue that score manipulation is a consequence of teacher shirking. IV estimates of a causal model for achievement as function of class size and score manipulation show that class size effects on measured achievement are driven entirely by the relationship between class size and manipulation. These results show how consequential score manipulation can arise even in assessment systems with few accountability concerns. |
| Keywords: | Education production; Regression Discontinuity; Test scores |
| JEL: | C26 C31 I21 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11666&r=ure |
| By: | Marine de Talancé (PSL, University Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, DIAL UMR 225) |
| Abstract: | A large body of research has well documented the growing contribution of private schools, including low-fee private providers, to education in underprivileged areas. Using a unique database from rural Pakistan, this paper determines the drivers of schooling behavior using a Heckman probit and a household fixed effects models that take into account non-random enrollment choice. The results suggest that gender and socioeconomic barriers still prevent certain parts of the population from accessing education and especially private schools. Both the lack of public schools and the perceived low quality of these schools explain why parents choose private schools even if free public schools are available. The household fixed effects model confirms the results and also shows that there is a significant intra-household gender gap in private school enrollment. |
| Keywords: | Demand for schooling, Pakistan, Perceptions, Private schooling, Quality of education, School choice |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201615&r=ure |
| By: | Battistin, Erich; De Nadai, Michele; Vuri, Daniela |
| Abstract: | We derive bounds on the distribution of math and language scores of elementary school students in Italy correcting for pervasive manipulation. A natural experiment that randomly assigns external monitors to schools is used to deal with endogeneity of manipulation as well as possible misclassification of the manipulation status. Bounds are obtained from properties of the statistical model used to detect classes with manipulated scores, and from restrictions on the relationship between manipulation and true scores. Our results show that score distributions are heavily affected by manipulating behavior, with regional rankings by academic performance being reversed once manipulation is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Measurement error; Non-parametric bounds; Partial identification; Score manipulation |
| JEL: | C14 C31 C81 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11667&r=ure |
| By: | Miriam Manchin (University College London); Sultan Orazbayev (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using a large survey spanning several years and more than 150 countries, we examine the importance of social networks in influencing individuals’ intention to migrate domestically or internationally. We distinguish close social networks (composed of friends and family) and broad social networks (composed of same-country residents with intention to migrate), both at home and abroad. We find that social networks abroad are important driving forces of migration intentions, more important than work-related aspects or income. In addition, we find that close social networks abroad with remittances matter significantly more than those without remittances as the individuals become more educated, indicating that networks might work through different channels for individuals with different level of education. On other hand, we find that having stronger close social networks at home reduces the likelihood of migration intentions. |
| Keywords: | intention to migrate, social networks, local migration, international migration, remittances |
| JEL: | F22 F24 R23 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:409&r=ure |
| By: | Llorca, M.; Jamasb, T. |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency has become a primary energy policy goal in Europe and many other countries and has conditioned the policies towards energy-intensive sectors such as road freight transport. However, energy efficiency improvements can lead to changes in the demand for energy services that offset some of the expected energy savings in the form of rebound effects. Consequently, forecasts of energy savings can be overstated. This paper analyses the energy efficiency and rebound effects for road freight transport in 15 European countries during the 1992-2012 period. We use a recent methodology to estimate an energy demand function using a stochastic frontier analysis approach and examine the influence of key features of rebound effect in the road freight transport sector. We obtain on average a fuel efficiency of 91% and a rebound effect of 18%. Our results indicate that the achieved energy efficiencies are retained to a large extent. We also find, among other results, that the rebound effect is higher in countries with higher fuel efficiency and better quality of logistics. Finally, a simulation analysis shows significant environmental externalities costs even in countries with lower rebound effect. |
| Keywords: | European road freight transport; stochastic frontier analysis; energy efficiency; rebound effect. |
| JEL: | C5 Q4 Q5 R4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1654&r=ure |
| By: | Jonsson, Lina (WSP); Björklund, Gunilla (VTI) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the present study is to estimate accident risks and marginal costs for railway level crossings in Sweden. The marginal effect of train traffic on the accident risk is used to derive the marginal cost per train passage that is due to level crossing accidents. The estimations are based on Swedish data from 2000 to 2012 on level crossing accidents, train volume, and crossing characteristics. In this study we estimate the accidents risk for both motorized road traffic and vulnerable road users. As a proxy for road traffic flow we use three categories of road type, and to capture the influences of pedestrians and bicyclists we use information about the number of persons living nearby the level crossing. The results show that both protection device, road type, traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the level crossing have significant influences on the accident probability. The marginal cost per train passage regarding motor vehicle accidents is estimated at SEK 1.50 on average in 2012. Corresponding number for accidents with vulnerable road users is 3.32. The cost per train passage varies substantially depending on type of protection device, road type, the traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the crossing. |
| Keywords: | Railway; Marginal cost; Accident probability; Level crossings |
| JEL: | D62 H23 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_022&r=ure |
| By: | Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional effects of changes in local air pollution from driving electric vehicles in the United States. We employ an econometric model to estimate power plant emissions and an integrated assessment model to value damages in air pollution from both electric and gasoline vehicles. Using the locations of currently registered electric vehicles, we find that people living in census block groups with median income greater than about $65,000 receive positive environmental benefits from these vehicles while those below this threshold receive negative environmental benefits. Asian and Hispanic residents receive positive environmental benefits, but White and Black residents receive negative environmental benefits. In multivariate analyses, environmental benefits are positively correlated with income and urban measures, conditional on racial composition. In addition, conditional on income and urbanization, separate regressions find environmental benefits to be positively related with Asian and Hispanic block-group population shares, negatively correlated with White share, and uncorrelated with Black share. Environmental benefits tend to be larger in states offering purchase subsidies. However, for these states, an increase in subsidy size is associated with a decrease in created environmental benefits. |
| JEL: | H23 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22862&r=ure |
| By: | Maurizio Cisi (Department of Management, University of Torino, Italy); Francesco Devicienti (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy); Alessandro Manello (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy); Davide Vannoni (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Using a large sample of Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs), we investigate the effect of membership in a formal business network (“contratto di rete†) on firms’ economic performance. We find that network participation has a positive effect on value added and exports, but not on profitability. The advantages of networking are stronger in the case of: smaller SMEs, firms operating in traditional and in more turbulent markets, firms located in less developed areas and firms not already exploiting the weaker ties offered by industrial districts. Network characteristics, such as size, geographical dispersion and diversity, are also found to influence performance. |
| Keywords: | Formal Business Network, Small and Medium Firms, Economic Performance |
| JEL: | D22 L24 L25 M21 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:039&r=ure |
| By: | Rostislav Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the methods of electoral analysis elaborated by the author previously and based on the concept of nationalization that is used to measure the spatial homogeneity of voting patterns. The study of nationalization scores leads to the conclusion about rather high degree of nationalization of the post-Soviet party system from its very beginning while short and small-scale upsurges of regionalization were coming along with anti-government protests of 1995-1995 and 2011. To deepen the analysis of the electoral space the author has analyzed the phenomenon of deviant and typical regions where ethnic cleavage has appeared to produce the main deviations. Finally, the analysis of dynamic nationalization brings about the better understanding of nationalization revealing the changing territorial patterns of voting for the same actors masked by the same overall national scores |
| Keywords: | nationalization of party systems, regionalization, electoral volatility, electoral geography |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:40/ps/2016&r=ure |
| By: | Gerritse, Michiel; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Government contracts are frequently courted by firms and governments alike as a solution to generate more jobs, income, and economic growth. However, the development impact of government contracts remains controversial. This paper uses georeferenced data on United States (US) federal contracts, distinguishing between the location of the recipient and the location of performance, for the years 2005-2014 in order to assess the extent to which federal government contracting has contributed to job and wealth generation and economic growth in metropolitan areas of the US. The results of the analysis show that individuals living in cities with a higher share of contract spending per capita witnessed improvements in employment. Aggregate GDP per capita also rose in cities hosting the companies receiving the contracts. However, the effects - once reverse causality and spurious trends are controlled for using a fine-scale fixed effect strategy and instrumentation - are very small, raising reasonable questions about the viability of federal contracting as a vehicle for economic development. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; federal contracting; government spending; jobs; urban development; wages |
| JEL: | O23 R11 R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11662&r=ure |
| By: | Downes, Thomas (Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | During and even after the Great Recession, numerous popular press stories commented on the apparent growth of non-tax revenues in the face of school district budget deficits. But Downes and Killeen (2014) show that nationally the growth of non-traditional revenues has been far less than these articles may lead the reader to believe. This paper uses data from the New England states to assess the empirical content of some of the possible explanations of this slow growth. In New England, as in the rest of the nation, non-tax revenues per pupil have grown in real terms but have not become a more important source of local revenues. Further analysis of Massachusetts offers equivocal evidence on whether non-tax revenues substitute for or are complements to revenues from overrides of revenue limits. Results from Vermont show that, when the incentives created by a school finance reform are sufficiently strong, districts turn to non-tax revenues in place of property taxes. However, once those incentives are removed, districts shift back to traditional revenues, indicating that districts are not inclined to use alternative revenues as a permanent replacement for property tax revenues. |
| JEL: | H71 H73 I22 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:2016_001&r=ure |
| By: | Andrej Angelowski (LUISS Guido Carli, Rome); Daniela Di Cagno (LUISS Guido Carli, Rome); Werner Güth (Luiss Guido Carli, Rome; Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Frankfurt; Max Planck Institute on Collective Goods, Bonn); Francesca Marazzi (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata); Luca Panaccione (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | In a circular neighborhood, each member contributes repeatedly to two local public goods with the left and the right neighbor. All two-person public good games are structurally independent in spite of their overlapping player sets. Heterogeneity across neighbors is introduced by two randomly selected participants, the "Bad" Apples, either by being less productive or by being excluded from periodic information feedback about their neighbors' contributions. We study how "Bad" Apples affect their neighbors and through them also other group members. Both types of "Bad" Apples spoil the basket, reducing total voluntary contributions compared to a baseline with no "Bad" Apples. Furthermore, we find that "Bad" Apples not only affects their direct neighbors, but also, through behavioral spillovers, the whole neighborhood. However, the two types of "Bad" Apples affect their neighborhood in opposite ways. Whereas less productive "Bad" Apples are least cooperative, "Bad" Apples excluded from feedback information are most cooperative. In the latter case, the reduction of total contributions is caused by the direct neighbors of "Bad" Apples. |
| Keywords: | Public goods, behavioral spillovers, experiments, voluntary contribution mechanism, heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | C91 C72 H41 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lui:cesare:1604&r=ure |
| By: | Stephan Kampelmann; Benoît Mahy; François Rycx; Guillaume Vermeylen |
| Abstract: | We provide first evidence regarding the direct effect of educational norms and educational mismatch on the bottom line of firms across work environments. To do so, we use rich Belgian linked employer-employee panel data, rely on the methodological approach pioneered by Hellerstein et al. (1999), and estimate dynamic panel data models at the firm level. Our findings show an ‘inverted L’ profitability profile: undereducation is associated with lower profits, whereas higher levels of normal and overeducation are correlated with positive economic rents of roughly the same magnitude. The size of these effects is amplified in firms experiencing economic uncertainty or operating in high-tech sectors. |
| Keywords: | Educational mismatch; productivity-wage gaps; linked panel data |
| JEL: | J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/240798&r=ure |
| By: | Odolinski, Kristofer (VTI); Wheat , Phillip (Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the dynamics between rail infrastructure renewals and maintenance in Sweden, using a panel vector autoregressive model. The model estimation also comprises intertemporal effects for each of these activities. We find that past values of maintenance gives a better prediction of current renewal costs compared to only using past values of renewals as a predictor. Moreover, the results indicate intertemporal effects for both renewals and maintenance, where an increase in costs during a year predicts an increase in costs in the following year. The dynamic model also allows us to estimate equilibrium cost elasticities with respect to ton density, which are significantly larger than its static counterparts. Overall, this work highlights that dynamics in rail infrastructure costs are important to consider when setting track access charges with respect to the wear and tear caused by traffic. |
| Keywords: | Maintenance; Renewals; Vector autoregression; Rail infrastructure |
| JEL: | L92 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_023&r=ure |
| By: | Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo; João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso; Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects on constrained borrowers of an LTV limit implemented on September 2013 on two segments of housing loans that constitute the bulk of housing loan originations in Brazil. LTV limits and related policies entail identification challenges, since constrained individuals are no longer directly observed after the regulation. We use comprehensive credit register information of individual housing loans augmented with a detailed, granular employment register. We focus on the average treatment effect on the treated borrowers, defined as the ones that would violate the LTV limit if allowed to do so. Partially observed treatment status is overcome by the use of an adjusted difference-in-difference method. In the housing loan segment that was subject to a sudden increase in demand due to broader eligibility rules, constrained individuals borrow housing loans with higher interest rates, shortened maturities, and, as expected, reduced loan amounts and LTV. These borrowers also purchase more affordable homes and are less likely to be in arrears 12 months in the future. In the other housing loan segment, subject to more stringent eligibility criteria, constrained borrowers also meet the LTV threshold, but the resulting contract terms stay roughly the same. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:445&r=ure |
| By: | Gottfries, Nils (Department of Economics); Stadin, Karolina (Ratio) |
| Abstract: | We examine the matching process using monthly panel data for local labour markets in Sweden. We find that an increase in the number of vacancies has a very weak effect on the number of unemployed workers being hired: unemployed workers appear to be unable to compete for many available jobs. Vacancies are filled quickly and there is no (or only weak) evidence that high unemployment makes it easier to fill vacancies; hiring appears to be determined by labour demand while frictions and labour supply play small roles. These results indicate persistent mismatch in the Swedish labour market. |
| Keywords: | structural unemployment; frictional unemployment; matching function; labour demand; labour supply |
| JEL: | J23 J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2016_014&r=ure |
| By: | daniel wilson (Federal Reserve Bank); enrico moretti |
| Abstract: | We quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientist to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists’ migration patterns. The long run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.8 for personal income taxes, 1.9 for state corporate income tax and -1.7 for the investment tax credit. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individual and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that state taxes matter |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1566&r=ure |
| By: | Steve Gibbons; Stephan Heblich; Esther Lho; Christopher Timmins |
| Abstract: | Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential risks such as damage to buildings and contamination of water supplies caused by geological disturbance from the hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’) extraction process. Although commercial development has not yet taken place in the UK, licenses for drilling were issued in 2008 implying potential future development. This paper examines whether public fears about fracking are evident in changes in house prices in areas that have been licensed for shale gas exploration. Our estimates suggest differentiated effects. Licensing did not affect house prices but fracking the first well in 2011, which caused two minor earthquakes, did. We find a 2.7-4.1 percent house price decrease in the area where the earthquakes occurred. Robustness checks confirm our findings. |
| JEL: | Q42 Q5 Q51 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22859&r=ure |
| By: | Ngai, Liwa Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher; Wang, Jin |
| Abstract: | China's hukou system imposes two main barriers to population movements. Agricultural workers get land to cultivate but run the risk of losing it if they migrate. Social transfers (education, health, etc.) are conditional on holding a local hukou. We show that the land policy is a more important barrier on industrialization. This distortion can be corrected by giving property rights to farmers. Social transfers dampen mainly urbanization. We calculate that the two policies together lead to overemployment in agriculture of 6.7 points, underemployment in the urban sector of 6.3 points and have practically no impact on the rural non-agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | China hukou; employment allocations; land policy; mobility barriers; social subsidies |
| JEL: | J61 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11657&r=ure |
| By: | Carvalho, V. M.; Nirei, M.; Saito, Y. U.; Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, A. |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this paper provides a systematic quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the earthquake and its aftermaths propagated both upstream and downstream supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. We then use our empirical findings to obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the shock by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the propagation of the shock over input-output linkages can account for a 1.2 percentage point decline in Japan’s gross output in the year following the earthquake. We interpret these findings in the context of a general equilibrium model that explicitly takes the inter-firm input-output linkages into account. |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1670&r=ure |
| By: | Belke, Ansgar; Haskamp, Ulrich; Setzer, Ralph |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether European regions which incorporate banks with a higher intermediation quality grow faster and are more resilient to negative shocks than its less efficient peers. For this purpose, we measure a bank's intermediation quality by estimating its pro t and cost efficiency while taking the changing banking environment after the financial crisis into account. Next, we aggregate the efficiencies of all banks within a NUTS 2 region to obtain a regional proxy for fi nancial quality in twelve European countries. Our results show that relatively more pro t efficient banks foster growth in their region. The link between fi nancial quality and growth is valid both in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period. These results provide evidence to the importance of swiftly restoring bank pro tability in euro area crisis countries through addressing high non-performing loans ratios and decisive actions on bank recapitalization. JEL Classification: G21, O16, O47, O52 |
| Keywords: | bank efficiency, Europe, financial development, regional growth |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161983&r=ure |
| By: | Hideo Konishi (Boston College); Chen-Yu Pan (Wuhan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the optimal partisan and bipartisan gerrymandering policies in a model with electoral competitions in policy positions and transfer promises. With complete freedom in redistricting, partisan gerrymandering policy generates the most one-sidedly biased district profile, while bipartisan gerrymandering generates the most polarized district profile. In contrast, with limited freedom in gerrymandering, both partisan and bipartisan gerrymandering tend to prescribe the same policy. Friedman and Holden (2009) find no significant empirical difference between bipartisan and partisan gerrymandering in explaining incumbent reelection rates. Our result suggests that gerrymanderers may not be as free in redistricting as popularly thought. |
| Keywords: | electoral competition, partisan gerrymandering, bipartisan gerrymandering, policy convergence/divergence, pork-barrel politics |
| JEL: | C72 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:922&r=ure |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Bryce Millett Steinberg |
| Abstract: | Could urbanization lead to more democracy and better government for the mega-cities of the developing world? This paper reviews three channels through which urbanization may generate political change. First, cities facilitate coordinated public action and enhance the effectiveness of uprisings. Second, cities may increase the demand for democracy relative to dictatorship. Third, cities may engender the development of “civic capital” which enables citizens to improve their own institutions. History and empirics provide significant support for the first channel, but less evidence exists for the others. Urbanization may improve the quality of poor-world governments, but more research is needed to draw that conclusion. |
| JEL: | N90 O18 R00 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22860&r=ure |
| By: | Raisa Akifyeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alisa Alieva (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of ethnicity on stereotypes and expectations of teachers, as well as the relationship of teacher expectations and stereotypes in relation to ethnic minority students by including the stereotype content model in the analysis. 34 primary school teachers participated in the experiment in which they analyzed six personal profiles of students, two of which were experimental. Experimental profiles contained identical information (annual school grade, testimonial, sex), but differed in names of the students and their parents and additionally in migration background. Thus, we manipulated only information related to ethnicity and migration history of two students. This allowed us to create a typical image of one and a half generation migrant child, who moved to St. Petersburg from Central Asia. Teacher expectations about the performance of the minority student were always unfavorable compared with the expectations about the performance of the majority student but expectations about the abilities of minority and majority students, which include teacher beliefs about students’ educational skills, attitudes and motivation, capacity for work in school class, were mixed. We also discovered that the expectations of teachers positively related to the perceptions of competence and were not related to the perceptions of warmth. However, the minority student was evaluated by teachers as warm and competent as the majority. This study shows the relevance of the problem of correct expectations of teachers in relation to students with different ethnic backgrounds |
| Keywords: | teacher expectations, stereotypes, stereotype content model, warmth, competence, ethnic minority students. |
| JEL: | I29 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:65psy2016&r=ure |
| By: | Cristina Mitaritonna; Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the impact of an increase in the local supply of immigrants on firms’ outcomes, allowing for heterogeneous effects across firms according to their initial productivity. Using micro-level data on French manufacturing firms spanning the period 1995-2005, we show that a supply-driven increase in the share of foreign-born workers in a French department (a small geographic area) increased the total factor productivity of firms in that department. Immigrants were prevalently highly educated and this effect is consistent with a positive complementarity and spillover effects from their skills. We also find this effect to be significantly stronger for firms with low initial productivity and small size. The positive productivity effect of immigrants was also associated with faster growth of capital, larger exports and higher wages for natives. Highly skilled natives were pushed towards firms that did not hire too many immigrants spreading positive productivity effects to those firms too. Because of stronger effects on smaller and initially less productive firms, the aggregate effects of immigrants at the department level on average productivity and employment was small. |
| JEL: | E25 F22 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22852&r=ure |
| By: | Korzhenevych, Artem; Langer, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of general-purpose transfers on different expenditure categories and tax rates in the municipalities of Saxony (eastern Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany). Findings from the panel data analysis suggest the existence of the "flypaper effect" - municipalities use transfers to increase expenditures but do not reduce taxes. For most expenditure subcategories the estimated coefficients are alike, suggesting similarity of spending priorities in the two federal states despite the differences in the transfer dependency. Targeted support of eastern municipalities could potentially explain few identified differences in the spending behavior. |
| Keywords: | Flypaper Effect,Local Government Expenditure,Transfers to Municipalities,Local Taxation |
| JEL: | H21 H70 H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:1016&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno Faivre d'Arcier (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yveline Lecler (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoît Granier (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Leprêtre (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Ce rapport pointe les particularités de la smart community de Yokohama. Il fait partie d’un corpus qui complètent le rapport final intitulé « Des éco-quartiers aux « smart cities » : quel rôle pour l’électro-mobilité ? Une comparaison France – Japon », réalisé dans le cadre du projet SMARTMOB par le LAET et l’IAO, en réponse à l’appel d’offre du GO6 du PREDIT IV (financement ADEME). Ce dernier est déposé sur les archives ouvertes : https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/hals hs-01382640). |
| Keywords: | politiques de mobilité durable,acceptation sociale,enjeux industriels,comportement de consommation des ménages,enjeux énergétiques,gestion de l’énergie,Projet SMARTMOB,smart cities,gestion de l’électricité,solutions techniques,électromobilité,comparaison France-Japon,politique énergétique,smart communities,implication des populations,pilotage public/privé |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01382820&r=ure |
| By: | Giorgio Calcagnini (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino "Carlo Bo"); Germana Giombini (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino "Carlo Bo); Francesco Perugini (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino "Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | The funding role of Bank Foundations in the Italian economy, especially to the non-profit sector, significantly increased over the last twenty-five years. By means of a novel measure of social capital, our paper evaluates the contribution of Bank Foundations to the economic development of Italian provinces. Our findings suggest that Bank Foundations positively affect social capital and the economic growth of provinces. |
| Keywords: | Bank Foundations; social capital; economic growth |
| JEL: | G23 O47 C13 R11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:16_03&r=ure |
| By: | Nargiza Alimukhamedova (CERGE-EI); Randall K. Filer (Hunter College; Graduate Center, CUNY; CERGE-EI); Jan Hanousek (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | The geographic distance between a household and financial institutions may constitute a significant obstacle to achieving the benefits of modern financial institutions. We measure the impact of distance-related access to microcredits in Uzbekistan. Residents living closer to microfinance institutions are propensity score matched to those further away using both household and village characteristics. Households located nearer to microfinance institutions have larger businesses in terms of income, profits and employees than similar households located further away. In addition, they spend more on most forms of consumption and have greater savings. |
| Keywords: | microcredit, microfinance institutions, geographic access |
| JEL: | O16 C34 |
| Date: | 2016–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:htr:hcecon:445&r=ure |
| By: | Antoine Bonleu (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Bruno Decreuse (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Tanguy Van Ypersele (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | Young Europeans experience high unemployment rates, job instability and late emancipation. Meanwhile they do not support reforms weakening protection on long-term contracts. In this paper, we suggest a possible rationale for such reform distaste. When the rental market is very regulated, landlords screen applicants with regard to their ability to pay the rent. Protecting regular jobs offers a second-best technology to sort workers, thereby increasing the rental market size. We provide a model where non-employed workers demand protected jobs despite unemployment and the share of short-term jobs increase, whereas rents, wages and the individual risk of dismissal are unaffected. |
| Keywords: | labor market dualism,rent default,screening |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01376582&r=ure |