nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
fifty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Inequality, Educational Choice and Public School Quality in Income Mixing Communities By Paolo Melindi-Ghidi
  2. Quantitative Spatial Economics By Stephen J. Redding; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
  3. Inequality, Educational Choice and Public School Quality in Income Mixing Communities By Paolo Melindi-Ghidi
  4. Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling By Alexander N. Bogin; William M. Doerner; William D. Larson
  5. Housing and mortgage dynamics: evidence from household surveys By David-Jan Jansen
  6. Researching commuting to work using the methods of complex network analysis By Pálóczi, Gábor
  7. Risk prevention in cities prone to natural hazards By Arnaud Goussebaïle
  8. The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates By Bracke, Philippe; Pinchbeck, Edward; Wyatt, James
  9. Emergence of a urban traffic macroscopic fundamental diagram By Ranjan, Abhishek; Fosgerau, Mogens; Jenelius, Erik
  10. Commuting links between settlement hierarchy levels in Hungary By Gerse, József; Szilágyi, Dániel
  11. Macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market By Baptista, Rafa; Farmer, J. Doyne; Hinterschweiger, Marc; Low, Katie; Tang, Daniel; Uluc, Arzu
  12. Social housing associations as an example of social housing management – case study By Michał Dziadkiewicz; Katarzyna Brendzel-Skowera; Sylwia Šęgowik-Śwącik; Nicoletta Baskiewicz
  14. The modelling of networks using Exponential Random Graph Models: an introduction By Johannes VAN DER POL
  15. Worker migration or job creation? Persistent shocks and regional recoveries By Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan; Hood, K
  16. Analysis of the lowest airfares considering the different business models of airlines, the case of Budapest By Dudás, Gábor; Boros, Lajos; Pál, Viktor; Pernyész, Péter
  17. Group-specific analysis of commuting in the most disadvantaged areas of Hungary By Alpek B., Levente; Tésits, Róbert; Bokor, László
  18. The Effects of Home Energy Efficiency Upgrades on Social Housing Tenants: Evidence from Ireland By Coyne, Bryan; Lyons, Sean; McCoy, Daire
  19. House Valuations and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence By Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Huanhuan Zheng
  20. Households’ willingness to pay for access to outdoor recreation: An application of the house price method using spatial quantile regressions By Cathrine Ulla Jensen
  21. The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets. Evidence from Uganda By Eric Strobl; Marie-Anne Valfort
  22. Assimilation in multilingual cities By Javier Ortega; Gregory Verdugo
  23. Loan Product Steering in Mortgage Markets By Sumit Agarwal; Gene Amromin; Itzhak Ben-David; Douglas D. Evanoff
  24. Identifying settlements involved in Hungary’s transit traffic By Kincses, Áron; Tóth, Géza; Tömöri, Mihály; Michalkó, Gábor
  25. Elites and the Expansion of Education in 19th-century Sweden By Andersson, Jens; Berger, Thor
  26. Deterring Delinquency: A Field Experiment in Improving Tax Compliance Behavior By Charles Loeffler; Holger Sieg; John MacDonald; Michael Chirico; Robert Inman
  27. Arbitrage Opportunities, Efficiency, and the Role of Risk Preferences in the Hong Kong Property Market By Tsang, Chun-Kei; Wong, Wing-Keung; Horowitz, Ira
  28. An Overview of the Pension/OPEB Landscape By Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry
  29. Attempts to delineate functional regions in Hungary based on commuting data By Pálóczi, Gábor; Pénzes, János; Hurbánek, Pavol; Halás, Marián; Klapka, Pavel
  30. Influence networks and public goods By Dunia Lopez-Pintado
  31. How to Control Controlled School Choice: Comment By Battal Dogan
  32. Industrial diversification in Europe: The differentiated role of relatedness By Jing Xiao; Ron Boschma; Martin Andersson
  33. Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Statistical Discrimination: A Field Experiment By Amanda Agan; Sonja Starr
  34. What Do We Know About School Discipline Reform? By Matthew P. Steinberg; Johanna Lacoe
  35. Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers and Tax Efforts: Evidence from Japan By Miyazaki, Takeshi
  36. Inter-regional disparities in the budget revenues per capita and their determinants: Russian case study By Marina Malkina
  37. Open innovative governance, transparency and citizens´ quality of life: An application to Portuguese municipalities. By João Laitão; Helena Alves; Dina Pereira
  38. Friend or foe? A conceptualisation of the effects of telework on the work environment By Robert A. Lewis
  39. Internal migration transition in Romania? By Horváth, István
  40. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data By Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mondragon, John
  41. The importance of spatial adjustment processes in the labour force: the case of Albania By Benassi, Federico; Boeri, Marco; Elezi, Pranvera; Zindato, Donatella
  42. Assessing the regional impact based on destination image By Horváth, Zsuzsanna E.
  43. A micro-funded theory of multilateral resistance to migration By Marchal, Léa; Naiditch, Claire
  44. In brief: Investing in roads By Nathaniel Baum-Snow; Loren Brandt; Vernon Henderson; Matthew Turner; Qinghua Zhang
  45. Industry Global Value Chains, Connectivity and Regional Smart Specialisation in Europe. An Overview of Theoretical Approaches and Mapping Methodologies By Emanuela Todeva; Ruslan Rakhmatullin
  46. The Economic Effects of Weather: Evidence from Big Data on Small Places By Wilson, Daniel J.
  47. Will Pensions and OPEBs Break State and Local Budgets? By Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry
  48. Fiscal Decentralisation and Regional Disparities By David Bartolini; Sibylle Stossberg; Hansjörg Blöchliger
  49. Principals' Transformational Leadership Behaviours in Public Secondary Schools in the State of Kuwait: A Comparison between Male and Female Principals By ALIAH ALDUWAILAH
  50. Impacts of an Enhanced Family Health and Sexuality Module of the HealthTeacher Middle School Curriculum: A Cluster Randomized Trial (Journal Article) By Brian Goesling; Mindy E. Scott; Elizabeth Cook
  51. Mapping the position of cities in corporate research and development through a gravity model-based bidimensional regression analysis By Tóth, Géza; Csomós, György

  1. By: Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)
    Abstract: Why, in some urban communities, do rich and poor households cohabit while, in others, we observe sorting by income? To answer this question I develop a two-community general equilibrium framework of school quality, residential choice and tax decision with probabilistic voting. The model predicts that in highly unequal societies in which households segregate by schooling, low- and high-income households choose to live in the same community. When there is less inequality, we observe the typical sorting by income across communities. The theoretical model suggests that the effect of inequality on the quality of public schooling is ambiguous and depends on the relative endowments of housing in the two communities. When inequality increases, if housing in the community where rich and poor households cohabit is affordable, then an inflow of high-income middle class households towards this community emerges. As a consequence, inequality negatively impacts the quality of public schooling due to an ends-against-the-middle coalition that pushes tax rates down.
    Keywords: inequality,probabilistic voting,segregation,income mixing equilibrium
    Date: 2016–09
  2. By: Stephen J. Redding; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
    Abstract: The observed uneven distribution of economic activity across space is influenced by variation in exogenous geographical characteristics and endogenous interactions between agents in goods and factor markets. Until recently, the theoretical literature on economic geography had focused on stylized settings that could not easily be taken to the data. This paper reviews more recent research that has developed quantitative models of economic geography. These models are rich enough to speak to first-order features of the data, such as many heterogenous locations and gravity equation relationships for trade and commuting. Yet at the same time these models are sufficiently tractable to undertake realistic counterfactuals exercises to study the effect of changes in amenities, productivity, and public policy interventions such as transport infrastructure investments. We provide an extensive taxonomy of the different building blocks of these quantitative spatial models and discuss their main properties and quantification.
    Keywords: agglomeration, cities, economic geography, quantitative models, spatial economics
    JEL: F10 F14 R12 R23 R41
    Date: 2016–10
  3. By: Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS)
    Abstract: Why, in some urban communities, do rich and poor households cohabit while, in others, we observe sorting by income? To answer this question I develop a two-community general equilibrium framework of school quality, residential choice and tax decision with probabilistic voting. The model predicts that in highly unequal societies in which households segregate by schooling, low- and high-income households choose to live in the same community. When there is less inequality, we observe the typical sorting by income across communities. The theoretical model suggests that the effect of inequality on the quality of public schooling is ambiguous and depends on the relative endowments of housing in the two communities. When inequality increases, if housing in the community where rich and poor households cohabit is affordable, then an inflow of high-income middle class households towards this community emerges. As a consequence, inequality negatively impacts the quality of public schooling due to an ends-against-the-middle coalition that pushes tax rates down.
    Keywords: Inequality, probabilistic voting, segregation, income mixing equilibrium
    JEL: D72 I24 I28 R21
    Date: 2016–10
  4. By: Alexander N. Bogin (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William D. Larson (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
    Abstract: We make two contributions to the study of house price index and mortgage credit modeling accuracy. First, we assess the predictive power of house price indices calculated at different levels of geographic aggregation. Lower levels of aggregation offer superior fit when appreciation rates vary substantially across submarkets and the indices are based on a sufficient number of transactions. Second, we estimate a competing options credit model using 15 years of mortgage performance data in the United States. Model accuracy is highest when using indices at a city or lower level of aggregation to construct current loan-to-value ratios. Fit is weaker when using state or national price indices. Overall, this research highlights the benefits of using more localized house price indices when predicting property values and mortgage performance.
    Keywords: house prices, loan-to-value, mortgage performance, credit model
    JEL: C55 G22 R30 R51
    Date: 2016–10
  5. By: David-Jan Jansen
    Abstract: This paper discusses research that uses Dutch household survey data to study housing and mortgage dynamics. After introducing broad developments and summarizing related work on heterogeneity, this paper focuses on the role of loan-to-value ratios. Household survey data suggests that the increase of loan-to-value ratios for first-time buyers in the housing market has come to a halt. Using ordered logit regressions, we find that house characteristics and demographic variables can explain heterogeneity in LTV ratios.
    Keywords: housing; mortgages; loan-to-value; financial literacy; survey
    JEL: E51 R31 R38
    Date: 2016–09
  6. By: Pálóczi, Gábor
    Abstract: In the current paper the possible utilization of complex network analysis in spatial researches was investigated. The organizational and developmental regularities of networks were demonstrated from the aspect of regional development planning. The reviewed regularities provide a new approach of the regional developments. The dependencies of settlements were analysed with the application of disparity method on the basis of the commuting matrix of the census from 2011. The disparity of out-commuting exceeded the level of in-commuting in all population categories, producing a more significant dependency relation in case of out-commuting. In general, the value of disparity increases with decreasing population number in settlements and dependency grows. This can be related with decrease in the level of degree and commuting distance. According to detailed results, the method of disparity might be effectively used in additional spatial analyses as well. The community detection procedures of the complex network analysis were also applied for spatial division. Modularity optimization with the Louvain method was successfully used in the delimitation of larger territorial units. Smaller units can be created by the increase of the resolution but modularity stability deteriorates. At the same time the composition of the units changes. In the light of the results, it could be stated that regions formed by commuting relations (according to the process of regionalism) did not match the Hungarian NUTS2 statistical regions, but natural borders and NUTS-3 level administrative boundaries could be detected in more cases. The differences between the results and NUTS-3 boundaries are not unique distortions caused by the methodology but these reflect real commuting relations (the local labour system units were discussed in a previous study). The methodology might be appropriate to detect the hierarchical order of the local labour system’s units. The method is adaptable for additional analysis of spatial interactions.
    Keywords: network analysis, commuting, disparity, dependency, regionalization, community detection
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10–10
  7. By: Arnaud Goussebaïle (Ecole Polytechnique [Palaiseau] - Ecole Polytechnique)
    Abstract: Cities located in regions prone to natural hazards such as flooding are not uniformly exposed to risks because of sub-city local characteristics (e.g. topography). Spatial heterogeneity thus raises the issue of how these cities have spread and should continue to develop. The current paper investigates these questions by using an urban model in which each location is characterized by a transport cost to the city center and a risk exposure. Riskier areas are developed nearer to the city center than further away. Investment in building resilience leads to more compact cities. At a given distance to the city center, riskier areas have lower land prices and get lower household density and higher building resilience. Actuarially fair insurance generates optimal density and resilience. An increase of insurance subsidization leads to an increase of density in the riskiest areas and a general decrease of resilience. In this case density restrictions and building codes have to be enforced to limit risk over-exposure.
    Keywords: resilience, insurance,urbanization, natural disaster risks
    Date: 2016–08–31
  8. By: Bracke, Philippe (Bank of England); Pinchbeck, Edward (London School of Economics and Spatial Economics Research Centre); Wyatt, James (
    Abstract: Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing — the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership — over a hundred years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987 to 1992) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long-term discount rates in housing markets.
    Keywords: Housing; leasehold; discount rates
    JEL: G10 R30
    Date: 2016–10–07
  9. By: Ranjan, Abhishek; Fosgerau, Mogens; Jenelius, Erik
    Abstract: This paper examines mild conditions under which a macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) emerges, relating space-averaged speed to occupancy in some area. These conditions are validated against empirical data. We allow local speed-occupancy relationships and , in particular, require no equilibrating process to be in operation. This means that merely observing the stable relationship between the space-averages of speed, flow and occupancy are not sufficient to infer a robust relationship and the emerging MFD cannot be guaranteed to be stable if traffic interventions are implemented.
    Keywords: Traffic variables, Congestion, Macroscopic fundamental diagram
    JEL: C01 R40 R41 R42
    Date: 2016–10–07
  10. By: Gerse, József; Szilágyi, Dániel
    Abstract: The interaction between the home and workplace has been a central component of urban and regional economic theories (Clark et al. 2003). According to the latest data, in 2011, one-third (1.3 million) of the employed persons commuted daily in Hungary. Compared to 2001, the ratio increased by 4.1 percentage points (up to 34%), and this fits into the global trends as the separation of the location of residence and workplace is becoming more and more common (Reggiani and Rietveld 2010). The phenomenon is fuelled mostly by suburbanisation. This process was at its peak in the 2000s when many people moved from big cities to the surrounding areas, mainly families with stable wealth conditions. The employed members of these families typically kept their jobs at the city of the previous residence.
    Keywords: commuting, settlement hierarcy, Hungary
    JEL: R10 R11 R12 R13
    Date: 2016–10
  11. By: Baptista, Rafa (Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Farmer, J. Doyne (Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Hinterschweiger, Marc (Bank of England); Low, Katie (Bank of England); Tang, Daniel (Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Uluc, Arzu (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper develops an agent-based model of the UK housing market to study the impact of macroprudential policies on key housing market indicators. This approach enables us to tackle the heterogeneity in this market by modelling the individual behaviour and interactions of first-time buyers, home owners, buy-to-let investors, and renters from the bottom up, and observe the resulting aggregate dynamics in the property and credit markets. The model is calibrated using a large selection of micro-data, mostly from household surveys and housing market data sources. We perform a series of comparative statics exercises to investigate the impact of the size of the rental/buy-to-let sector and different types of buy-to-let investors on housing booms and busts. The results suggest that an increase in the size of the buy-to-let sector may amplify house price cycles and increase house price volatility. Furthermore, in order to illustrate the effects of macroprudential policies on several housing market indicators, we implement a loan-to-income portfolio limit. We find that this policy attenuates the house price cycle.
    Keywords: Agent-based mode; housing market; macroprudential policy; buy-to-let sector
    JEL: D31 E58 R21 R31
    Date: 2016–10–07
  12. By: Michał Dziadkiewicz (Politechnika Częstochowska); Katarzyna Brendzel-Skowera (Politechnika Częstochowska); Sylwia Šęgowik-Śwącik (Politechnika Częstochowska); Nicoletta Baskiewicz (Politechnika Częstochowska)
    Abstract: The article raises the issue of public governance in the w context of the housing economy. The characteristics of tasks, which were imposed upon units of the local government at the municipal level in this respect, have been presented herein. Local government units, responsible for meeting diverse needs of the community, play a significant role in creating the quality of life of the citizens. Within the aspect of the housing economy, this task relates to two planes: building new flats and managing the already existing housing stock. The article presents models of managing the housing resources that are used in Poland, with particular emphasis on social housing associations. This solution involves the transfer of the municipal property management into the hands of private partners. The essence of this approach is exemplified by Zakład Gospodarki Mieszkaniowej Towarzystwo Budownictwa Społecznego w Częstochowie sp. z o.o. (i.e. Department of Housing Management Social Housing Association in Czestochowa LLC). This article is based on a review of reference books and on the own study carried out in 19 Polish cities as well as the case study.
    Keywords: public governance, local government units, social needs, public tasks, social housing associations
    JEL: M21
  13. By: Buzard, Kristy (Syracuse); Carlino, Gerald A. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Hunt, Robert M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Carr, Jake (Ohio State University); Smith, Tony E. (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We employ a unique data set to examine the spatial clustering of private R&D labs. Instead of using fixed spatial boundaries, we develop a new procedure for identifying the location and size of specific R&D clusters. Thus, we are better able to identify the spatial locations of clusters at various scales, such as a half mile, 1 mile, 5 miles, and more. Assigning patents and citations to these clusters, we capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers within them. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is strongest at small spatial scales and diminishes rapidly with distance.
    Keywords: spatial clustering; geographic concentration; R&D labs; localized knowledge spillovers; patent citations
    JEL: O31 R12
    Date: 2016–10–13
  14. By: Johannes VAN DER POL
    Abstract: Networks are representations of relational data. Whether the data used represents social interactions, cooperations or inter-bank dependencies, the structure of the network reflect a decision-making process based on many factors (common friends, technological proximity, geographical proximity). One of the objectives of network analysis is to identify these factors. The analysis of the structure using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) can help in the identification of these factors by answering why two particular agents interact with one another, or why a specific agent has a particular position inside a network. In other words ERGMs allow us to perform an econometric analysis on network data. In the case of networks it is possible that a link depends upon the structure of the network. Usual econometric methods cannot be used because the dependence violates the hypothesis of independence of observations. ERGMs take into account this particularity of network data. \r\nThe aim of this paper is to present the statistical theory behind ERGM models and present an application using R-Project.
    Keywords: Network analysis ; ERGM ; Network structure ; R
    JEL: C59 C13 D85
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan; Hood, K
    Abstract: Although a large body of literature has documented the role of household out-migration in the recovery from regional downturns, the role that firms play in the recovery process has remained a neglected topic of research. Firms may choose to locate new jobs in depressed regions, thereby reducing unemployment through the job creation channel. We present a new empirical model of regional adjustment that permits us to decompose recoveries into both household and firm responses to local economic conditions. The model features a set of auxiliary serial dependence parameters that are used to filter out persistency in the identified labor market shocks, so that changes in employment obtained from the fitted model only reflect the endogenous firm response of interest, and not the ongoing exogenous job destruction from the original downturn. We find that the labor demand response is two to three times larger than the labor supply response, meaning that local job creation-and not household out-migration-is the main driver of recoveries in the US. This result is robust to a wide variety model specifications and identification strategies.
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Dudás, Gábor; Boros, Lajos; Pál, Viktor; Pernyész, Péter
    Abstract: This study reports the findings of a research that compared the lowest airfares of full-service network carriers and low-cost airlines and mapped the cost distance between Budapest and European cities. The study investigated return air tickets for three time periods in 48 European cities for travellers who originated from Budapest. The study was based on quantitative research methods using automated internet data collection and a unique GIS-based mapping method to compare airfares and visualise the cost distance between European cities and Budapest. Our findings showed that low-cost airlines outperform full-service network carriers by offering lower-fare air tickets, while the cost distance maps showed that cities accessible by low-cost airlines are ‘closer’ to Budapest in general.
    Keywords: airfare, low-cost airline, cost distance, air transport, GIS
    JEL: L93 O18 R10 R11 R41
    Date: 2016–10
  17. By: Alpek B., Levente; Tésits, Róbert; Bokor, László
    Abstract: The study aims to examine the commuting opportunities of the most disadvantaged job seeker groups living in Hungary's most disadvantaged regions, as well as Hungary’s spatial and group-specific boundary conditions. The study also aims to develop and present an indexation process (fMFÁ model), allowing the measurement of the mobility degree of different territorial units (in this case, the municipalities) and effects of certain factors determining commuting (transport subsidies, individual choices and options). The index measures the degree of mobility by considering individual and several types of public transport, expenses and expected time of commuting. The present document defines mobility for territorial units, separating its objective and subjective types. The group-specific analysis of boundary conditions is implemented through a questionnaire survey and logical models, the aim of which is twofold. On one hand, the model specifies the maximum commuting distance, which would be accepted rationally for the most disadvantaged job seekers. On the other hand, it presents a decision-making dilemma, namely the choice between commuting to work and local employment. Thus, the study provides insights into the specific features of labour market mobility of the target group. The Average Mobility Level Model and the Adjusted Mobility Index also evaluate the regional structure of the group-specific features of commuting. Through all these, the present study may promote a more efficient spatial allocation of employment policy measures. Strengthening of local employment in areas where group-specific mobility degrees are lower and support to improve commuting opportunities and employment centres where the mobility degrees are appropriate can contribute to the decrease of unemployment.
    Keywords: commuting, unemployment, disadvantaged groups, disadvantaged areas, regional mobility, Adjusted Mobility Index
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10
  18. By: Coyne, Bryan; Lyons, Sean; McCoy, Daire
    Abstract: This research examines the impact of a home energy efficiency upgrade programme on social housing tenants. Employing a quasi-experimental approach we examine a range of self-reported and objectively measured outcomes, including metered gas consumption, for a control and upgrade group, before and after the upgrade. We draw our sample from a large home energy efficiency programme in Ireland, The SEAI Better Energy Communities Scheme, which provides funding for whole communities to upgrade the efficiency of their dwellings. Dwellings are selected for upgrade based on need, allowing us to control for observable dwelling characteristics correlated with selection into the trial. The upgrades undertaken are extensive relative to the average home energy improvement in Ireland, with many dwellings receiving a number of measures, such as cavity wall, external wall and attic insulation; new boilers; replacement doors and windows; CFL lighting and heating controls. Households report improvements across a range of outcomes associated with heating-related deprivation and comfort in the home. Panel regression models examine the elasticity of gas demand with respect to the thermal efficiency of the dwellings. Overall, we find that use of natural gas falls much less than 1:1 for each increment to thermal efficiency of the home. For the average household in this study, about half of a
    Date: 2016–10
  19. By: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Huanhuan Zheng
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the relation between house prices and economic growth. Using a dataset that covers house prices for 19 countries from the first quarter of 1975 to the third quarter of 2013. We find that house price appreciations are positively associated with economic growth, while the relation between house price depreciations and economic growth is highly non-linear, depending on country-specific characteristics. In the absence of concurrent banking crisis, large house price depreciations (rather than prolonged and modest ones) are positively associated with economic growth. We also find that the positive association between house price depreciations and economic growth is more pronounced in countries with civil-law legal systems, in countries without mortgage insurance or personal bankruptcy law.
    JEL: F41 F43
    Date: 2016–09
  20. By: Cathrine Ulla Jensen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how household demand for access to nature varies across a Danish housing market. I use conditional quantile regressions to estimate the implicit price for a change in nature area conditional on the home price. If there are systematic differences in the willingness to pay for nature across the house price distribution, a conditional mean will systematically under- or over-predict the impact for certain priced homes. In addition, this heterogeneity can be of interest to policy-makers as a potential indicator of the distributional profile associated with a given policy. This study investigates this question by employing both standard spatial econometrics and spatial quantile regressions. I find that nature in the vicinity of the home is perceived as an amenity across the entire market. This result is robust to different spatial controls. What is not robust is the size and the profile of the price premium. There is a large correlation between the income level within a neighborhood and the level of outdoor recreation. Controlling for unobserved quality through fixed effects reveals that the price premium increases with prices, but when controlling for the general price level using the trade price of neighboring homes (a lag), the price premium becomes constant. Controlling for local neighborhood affluence and unobserved quality on a larger scale yields the same results as the spatial lag term but with a more robust model due to the absence of endogeneity. The paper offers a discussion of this discrepancy and relates it to the more general discussion of controlling for spatial dependence.
    Keywords: Hedonic pricing, Spatial econometrics, Quantile regression, Pooled cross-section, Green space
    JEL: R20 Q26 Q51
    Date: 2016–10
  21. By: Eric Strobl (Ecole Polytechnique [Palaiseau] - Ecole Polytechnique); Marie-Anne Valfort (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Relying on census data collected in 2002 and historical weather data for Uganda, we estimate the impact of weather-induced internal migration on the probability for non-migrants living in the destination regions to be employed. Consistent with the pre- diction of a simple theoretical model, our results reveal a larger negative impact than the one documented for developed countries. They further show that this negative impact is significantly stronger in Ugandan regions with lower road density and therefore less conducive to capital mobility: a 10 percentage points increase in the net in-migration rate in these areas decreases the probability of being employed of non-migrants by more than 10 percentage points.
    Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa,weather shocks,internal migration,labor market
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Javier Ortega (City University London); Gregory Verdugo (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We characterise how the assimilation patterns of minorities into the strong and the weak language differ in a situation of asymmetric bilingualism. Using large variations in language composition in Canadian cities from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses, we show that the differences in the knowledge of English by immigrant allophones (i.e. the immigrants with a mother tongue other than English and French) in English-majority cities are mainly due to sorting across cities. Instead, in French-majority cities, learning plays an important role in explaining differences in knowledge of French. In addition, the presence of large anglophone minorities deters much more the assimilation into French than the presence of francophone minorities deters the assimilation into English. Finally, we find that language distance plays a much more important role in explaining assimilation into French, and that assimilation into French is much more sensitive to individual characteristics than assimilation into English. Some of these asymmetric assimilation patterns extend to anglophone and francophone immigrants, but no evidence of learning is found in this case.
    Keywords: minorities,immigration,assimilation,language policies
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Sumit Agarwal; Gene Amromin; Itzhak Ben-David; Douglas D. Evanoff
    Abstract: We present evidence of a particular type of loan steering in which lenders lead borrowers to take out high margin mortgage products. We identify this activity by comparing borrowers who were rejected by lenders but were subsequently approved by their affiliates (steered borrowers) to other initially rejected borrowers who obtained loans elsewhere. Although steered borrowers default less, they pay significantly higher interest rates and are more likely to borrow through contracts with unconventional features, such as negative amortization or prepayment penalties. Female borrowers, single borrowers with no co-signers, and borrowers in low-income locations are more likely to be steered.
    JEL: D12 D18 G18 G21 K2
    Date: 2016–09
  24. By: Kincses, Áron; Tóth, Géza; Tömöri, Mihály; Michalkó, Gábor
    Abstract: As one of the transit countries in Europe, Hungary plays a significant role both in the east-west and north-south passenger traffic of the continent. Approximately one-third of foreigners (14 million) arriving yearly in Hungary travel through the country. A turnover like this can generate changes at the micro level in the everyday life of affected settlements and have social, economic, and physical impacts. In order to examine this, it is important to identify settlements involved in transit. The study introduces methodological approaches that can be applied to outline the crystallising points of transit tourism in Hungary. With the help of GIS-based delineation and the logit model the settlements involved in transit have been identified. The study concluded that settlements involved in transit traffic (1) are located at the intersections of roads enabling the shortest travel time between different border sections, (2) possess a motorway junction, and (3) are situated at the intersection of two main roads. Finally, it is shown that transit impacts the local economy of these settlements.
    Keywords: transit tourism, tourist spending, Hungary
    JEL: L83 O18 R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2016–10
  25. By: Andersson, Jens (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Berger, Thor (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Did economic and political inequality hamper the spread of mass schooling in the 19th century? This paper analyzes the link between investments in primary schooling and the spread of voting rights in 19th-century Sweden using newly collected data on educational expenditure and the distribution of voting rights in local governments. We find that municipalities governed by local elites spent substantially more on primary schooling relative to those that were more egalitarian. This empirical result is robust to using matching estimators, comparing municipalities located within the same county or district, and using differences in agricultural suitability as an instrument for the presence of local landed elites. Broadly, these findings suggest that elites were historically not always a barrier to the diffusion of elementary education and further our understanding of how Sweden managed to maintain a high level of human capital despite its low level of economic development and restricted franchise in the 19th century.
    Keywords: Democratization; elites; human capital development
    JEL: I21 I24 N33
    Date: 2016–10–07
  26. By: Charles Loeffler; Holger Sieg; John MacDonald; Michael Chirico; Robert Inman
    Abstract: Property taxes play a central role in the financing of municipal government services. Yet, municipal governments commonly confront problems with property tax collection even when the tax base is known. There is surprisingly little evidence on what authorities can do to increase property tax compliance. This paper analyzes seven different property tax notification strategies through a randomized controlled experiment conducted with the City of Philadelphia. All seven notification strategies increase property tax compliance over the usual approach of simply sending a bill. The most effective notifications are the those that threaten to take out a lien on the property or to foreclose by sheriff's sale for continued failure to pay taxes. The results suggest that economic motives to pay property taxes are more effective than those that appeal to social norms.
    Date: 2016
  27. By: Tsang, Chun-Kei; Wong, Wing-Keung; Horowitz, Ira
    Abstract: This paper aims at investigating how a prospective buyer’s optimal home-size purchase can be determined by means of a stochastic-dominance (SD) analysis of historical data of Hong Kong. By means of SD analysis, the paper employs monthly property yields in Hong Kong over a 15-year period to illustrate how buyers of different risk preference may optimize their home-size purchase. Regardless of whether the buyer eschews risk, embraces risk, or indifference to it, in any adjacent pairing of five well-defined housing classes, the smaller class provides the optimal purchase. In addition, risk averters focusing on total yield would prefer to invest in the smallest and second- smallest classes than in the largest class. As the smaller class provides the optimal purchase, the smallest class affords the buyer the optimal purchase over all classes in this important housing market – at least where rental yields are of primary concern. The findings suggest that in the Hong Kong housing market, long-term investors may be better off purchasing smaller homes. For other type of investors, it depends on their risk preference. There is a very small body of empirical literature on housing investment, especially if focuses on the optimal home-size purchase.
    Keywords: urban studies; stochastic dominance; risk averters, risk seekers, investors with S-shaped and reverse S-shaped utilities, housing investment
    JEL: C14 G14 R31
    Date: 2016–05–17
  28. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry
    Abstract: It is impossible to discuss municipal finance without considering the cost of pensions and other post-retirement employee benefits (OPEB), largest of which is retiree health insurance. These costs have received enormous press coverage, usually incorporating sweeping generalities about the burden of employee post-retirement benefits for the nation as a whole. Much is made of the bankruptcies in Vallejo, California (2008), Prichard, Alabama (2010), Central Falls, Rhode Island (2011), Stockton, California (2015), and Detroit, Michigan (2015). At the state level, the pension situation in Illinois, New Jersey, and Connecticut is often described as typical. No one mentions Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina – states that have done a good job of providing reasonable benefits, paying their required contributions, and accumulating assets. The point is that the picture at the state and local level is extremely heterogeneous, so it is crucial to look at the numbers state by state and locality by locality. This paper provides a comprehensive accounting of pension and OPEB liabilities for state and local governments and the fiscal burden that they pose. The analysis includes plans serving more than 800 entities: 50 states, 178 counties, 173 major cities, and 415 school districts related to the sample of cities and counties. The analysis apportions the liabilities of state-administered cost-sharing plans to participating local governments for a more accurate picture of which governmental entity is actually responsible for funding pension and OPEB liabilities. The cost analysis calculates, separately, pension and OPEB costs as a percentage of own-source revenue for states, cities, and counties. It then combines pension and OPEB costs to obtain the overall burden of these programs. Finally, it adds debt service costs to provide a comprehensive picture of government revenue commitments to long-term liabilities.
    Date: 2016–10
  29. By: Pálóczi, Gábor; Pénzes, János; Hurbánek, Pavol; Halás, Marián; Klapka, Pavel
    Abstract: The issue of defining functional regions in Hungary is presented in this paper, which contains detailed methodological description with the help of relevant studies from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The use of Smart’s measure together with the CURDS algorithm and the relatively new concept of trade-off constraint function with four different sets of parameter values provided four optional solutions for this issue, based on the analysis of daily travel-to-work flows from the 2011 census. The resulting regions correspond to the micro-regional level and give valuable additions to the discussion about regionalization. The paper provides basic descriptive statistics for each of the four variants of functional region systems, which enables their overall evaluation (seeing advantages and disadvantages) and mutual comparison (seeing similarities and differences), and thus facilitates an informed debate on future work in functional regionalisation in Hungary carried out with respect to different purposes.
    Keywords: functional regions, commuting, census data, Hungary
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 R12 R52
    Date: 2016–10–10
  30. By: Dunia Lopez-Pintado (Universidad Pablo de Olavide and CORE, Universite catholique de Louvain.)
    Abstract: We consider a model of local public goods in a random network context. The influence network determines (exogenously) who observes whom every period and comprises a wide array of options depending on the degree distribution and the in/out-degree correlations. We show that there exists a unique equilibrium level of public good provision and compare it with the efficient level. We derive further insights for this problem by performing a comparative statics analysis.
    Keywords: influence networks, public goods, out-degree, in-degree, best-shot game
    JEL: D85 H41
    Date: 2016–10–04
  31. By: Battal Dogan
    Abstract: Echenique and Yenmez [AER 2015, 105(8): 2679-94] study choice rules for a school that express preferences for a diverse student body. Their Theorem 2 characterizes choice rules that are "generated by reserves for the priority". We show that the "only if part" is not correct. We exhibit a choice rule that is generated by reserves for the priority but violates one of their axioms. A similar issue arises in Theorem D.2., where a priority is allowed to be endogenous. We reformulate the axioms and repair the results.
    JEL: H75 I21 I28
    Date: 2016–10
  32. By: Jing Xiao; Ron Boschma; Martin Andersson
    Abstract: There is increasing interest in the drivers of industrial diversification, and how these depend on economic and industry structures. This paper contributes to this line of inquiry by analyzing the role of relatedness in explaining variations in industry diversification, measured as the entry of new industry specializations, across 173 European regions during the period 2004-2012. There are significant differences across regions in Europe in terms of industrial diversification. Relatedness has a robust positive influence on the probability that new industry specialization develops in a region. A novel finding is that the influence of relatedness on the probability of new industrial specializations depends on innovation capacity. We find that relatedness is a more important driver of diversification in regions with a weaker innovation capacity. The effect of relatedness appears to decrease monotonically as the innovation capacity of a local economy increases. This is consistent with the argument that high innovation capacity allows an economy to ‘break from its past’ and to develop, for the economy, truly new industry specializations. We infer from this that innovation capacity is a critical factor for economic resilience.
    Keywords: industrial diversification, related diversification, evolutionary economic geography, unrelated diversification, European regions, resilience
    JEL: B52 L16 O14 O18 R11
    Date: 2016–10
  33. By: Amanda Agan; Sonja Starr
    Abstract: "Ban-the-Box" (BTB) policies restrict employers from asking about applicants' criminal histories on job applications and are often presented as a means of reducing unemployment among black men, who disproportionately have criminal records. However, withholding information about criminal records could risk encouraging statistical discrimination: employers may make assumptions about criminality based on the applicant's race (or other observable characteristics). To investigate BTB's effects, we sent approximately 15,000 fictitious online job applications to employers in New Jersey and New York City both before and after the adoption of BTB policies. These applications varied the race and felony conviction status of the applicants. We confirm that criminal records are a major barrier to employment: employers that ask about criminal records were 63% more likely to call back an applicant if he has no record. However, our results support the concern that BTB policies encourage statistical discrimination on the basis of race: we find that the race gap in callbacks grows dramatically at the BTB-affected companies after the policy goes into effect. Before BTB, white applicants to employers with the box received 7% more callbacks than similar black applicants, but BTB increases this gap to 45%.
    Date: 2016
  34. By: Matthew P. Steinberg; Johanna Lacoe
    Abstract: In this article, we summarize the critiques of exclusionary discipline and examine the research base on which discipline policy reform rests.
    Keywords: school discipline, suspension, zero tolerance
    JEL: I
  35. By: Miyazaki, Takeshi
    Abstract: The present study examines the incentiv¬e effects of fiscal equalization transfers on local corporate tax rates from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The study focuses on additional corporate tax on capital, which is exempt from calculations of equalization grants. A theoretical investigation reveals that a rise in equalization rate increases additional capital tax rates. The theoretical prediction is empirically examined using panel data of Japanese municipalities for 1990–2000. It is found that a higher equalization rate in fiscal equalizing transfers gives municipalities an incentive to raise corporate tax rates exempt from the transfer scheme.
    Keywords: Intergovernmental fiscal transfers; regression discontinuity design; tax competition; tax effort
    JEL: H7 H71 H77
    Date: 2016–10
  36. By: Marina Malkina (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod)
    Abstract: The aim of the research is evaluation of inter-regional disparities in budget revenues per capita and assessment of the factors influenced them in statics and dynamics, based on data of Russian Federation regions in 2004-2014. We proposed a four-factor multiplicative model of the formation of budget revenues per capita which describes the transition from GDP per capita to the collected taxes per capita, to the regionally-assigned tax revenues per capita after tax sharing between levels of the budget system and to the budget revenues per capita after intergovernmental transfers and budget loans. To assess the level of inter-regional differences at all these stages we employed the population-weighted Theil-Bernoulli index, which is the measure of entropy sensitive to the bottom-part distribution. By means of this index decomposition, first proposed by Duro J.A. and Esteban J., and its application to our multiplicative model, we assessed the impact of four main factors and three intersect factors on inequality in regions budgetary provision, both in panel data and in time series.
    Keywords: budget revenues per capita, inter-regional inequality, Theil-Bernoulli index, decomposition, convergence, divergence
    JEL: H61 H71 R12
  37. By: João Laitão; Helena Alves; Dina Pereira
    Abstract: The new paradigm for public administration is founded on different meanings for distinct dimensions of open innovative governance. Thus, "open" may mean: open governance; open data; open information; and open innovation; which stand for new types of open relationships between citizens, firms and municipalities. In the context of citizens’ rights, open innovative governance is approached as the right to participate in the innovation process of agenda-setting and decision-making. The chapter discusses the effects of open innovative governance and municipalities’ transparency on citizens’ quality of life. To do so, we test different specifications of probit models, by taking as a reference a population of 308 Portuguese municipalities and using the data collected through the Local Authority site, integrated in the Local Government Integrity for Portugal initiative, in the period 2013-2014. To assess the effects on quality of life, a proxy for citizens’ well-being is considered, taking into account the positive variation of the citizens’ purchasing power index. The main results reveal a positive and significant influence of open innovative governance on citizens’ quality of life, regarding two dimensions: Plans and planning; and Taxes, fees, prices and regulations. Moreover, a positive and significant association between higher education institutions and citizens’ quality of life is revealed, although this could be counterbalanced by the negative effects associated with the condition of being a low density municipality and variation in purchasing power.
    Keywords: Open Governance; Public Innovation; Quality of Life; Transparency.
    JEL: R1 R12
    Date: 2016–10
  38. By: Robert A. Lewis (Les Roches Gruyère University of Applied Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the conceptual effects of telework usage on the work environment. Discussions focus on three perspectives: those of teleworkers, their colleagues, and their employers. Telework, in this paper, is defined as work that is carried out using some type of information technology (IT) at a distance from the traditional workplace. This paper argues that telework can alter understandings of work because it reshapes conventional perceptions of work location, time, and perceived values in organisational settings. From the viewpoint of non-teleworking colleagues of teleworkers, telework modifies understandings of equity and perceptions of work carried out in teams, due to decreased face-to-face interaction. From an employer viewpoint, telework alters understandings of hierarchy and organisational cultural norms. This paper is limited to discussions based on the available literature and does not support generalisation, but rather suggests areas for further empirical investigation.
    Keywords: Telework, Work environment
    JEL: J29
  39. By: Horváth, István
    Abstract: This paper is an overview of the shifts in the internal migration patterns in Romania for the last six decades. In the first part a literature-based brief overview of the trends and patterns of internal migration during communism will be presented. In the second (more extensive) part, a statistical-data based analysis of the internal migration trends and patterns over the last 25 years will be provided.
    Keywords: Romania, internal migration, international migration, communism, market-transition, regional differences, demography
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10
  40. By: Coibion, Olivier (University of Texas at Austin); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (UC Berkeley); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Mondragon, John (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip-codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt (relative to their income) than low-income households in lower-inequality regions, contrary to the prevailing view. Furthermore, the price of credit is higher and access to credit is harder for low-income households in high-inequality versus low-inequality regions. Lower quantities combined with higher prices suggest that the debt accumulation pattern by household income across areas with different inequality is a result of credit supply rather than credit demand. We propose a lending model to illustrate the mechanism.
    JEL: D14 E21 E51 G21
    Date: 2016–10–11
  41. By: Benassi, Federico; Boeri, Marco; Elezi, Pranvera; Zindato, Donatella
    Abstract: Using census data on work commuting in Albania – collected for the first time in 2011 – this study examines the spatial adjustment processes between demand and supply of labour across the country. The first part focuses on the spatial adjustment of labour forces that occur within and between Albanian’s prefectures. Several statistical indicators, derived using origin-destination matrices, measure the differential levels of attraction and expulsion of each prefecture. Results show a high level of heterogeneity and emphasise the crucial role of spatial contiguity among prefectures on this spatial dynamic. The second part examines the role of the municipality of Tirana. This is first investigated within a three-territorial-units system (the municipality of Tirana, rest of the prefecture and rest of Albania) and then within the prefecture as a closed system. Interestingly, 71.5% of all the commuting flows directed to the Municipality originate from municipalities located very close to Tirana (less than 10 km). We conclude that the spatial structure of the prefecture, reasonably extendable to the whole country, can be defined as monocentric. Further studies should focus on the implied costs of this system to the society and environment of Albania.
    Keywords: work commuting, census data, territorial imbalances, spatial adjustments, Albania
    JEL: N3 R11 R12 R14
    Date: 2016–10
  42. By: Horváth, Zsuzsanna E.
    Abstract: The region of Northern Hungary is historically rich in tangible and intangible heritage destinations such as fortresses, castles, and cultural routes. Former castles of the aristocracy, converted to four- and five-star hotels, are among the favourite tourist destinations in the region. Destination stakeholders of these attractions have a prime interest in designing and delivering a complex and memorable tourism experience that will attract more visitors and return visits. The responsibility of regional and local destination management lies in finding an appropriate mix of attractions and corresponding experiences, attracting visitors/guests and creating repeat patterns of return. The research, involving a sample of 360 castle hotel guests, and using Partial Least Squares structural equation path modelling, reveals significant correlation between historical interest, motivation, and perceived image, predicting guests’ perception of the entire region. Visitation patterns, together with geographical embeddedness, can be further explored to increase destination competitiveness.
    Keywords: historical heritage, destination experience, castle hotels, perceived image, regional impact, destination competitiveness
    JEL: L83 P25 R11
    Date: 2016–10
  43. By: Marchal, Léa; Naiditch, Claire
    Abstract: This paper provides a micro-funded theory of multilateral resistance to migration analyzing how financial constraints determine migration trends. We build a RUM model in which we explicitly introduce the budget constraint in the migration decision: individuals cannot afford migrating to a destination for which the migration cost (which depends on the immigration policy of the destination country) is higher than their current income. We find that the migration rate between two countries depends on the characteristics of the origin and destination countries and their relative accessibility, and also on a budget constraint term. This term depends on the attributes of alternative destinations. Thus, the model exhibits multilateral resistance to migration. We perform a numerical analysis based on 23 European countries in 2008 and evidence multilateral resistance to migration induced by the implementation of intra-EU migration restrictions following the 2004 EU enlargement.
    Keywords: Migration,Budget constraint,Immigration policy,RUM model,Multilateral resistance to migration
    JEL: F22 J61 O15 C63
    Date: 2016
  44. By: Nathaniel Baum-Snow; Loren Brandt; Vernon Henderson; Matthew Turner; Qinghua Zhang
    Abstract: Between 1990 and 2010, China constructed an extensive modern road network, including a national system of limited access highways. Vernon Henderson and colleagues investigate the impact on the growth of Chinese cities and regions.
    Keywords: construction, China, Ricardian trade models, primate cities
    JEL: F10 N65
    Date: 2016–10
  45. By: Emanuela Todeva (BCNED - Business Clusters, Networks and Economic Development); Ruslan Rakhmatullin (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This paper is the second paper in a series of three papers on Global Value Chains (GVCs), developed under the auspices of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. It provides a clear understanding and comparison of existing theories and methodologies for mapping value chains and offer a demonstration of the use of such methodologies in the context of S3 and strategic interventions at regional, national and cluster level. The paper provides an overview of five distinctive theoretical frameworks to global value chain research, and related to them methodologies for mapping GVCs, and analysis of patterns of industry diversification and integration. The paper highlights that mapping interconnected industry capabilities at a global scale and GVC analysis requires the use of data on the operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs). This discussion is intricately linked to the third paper in the series, which presents a new methodological approach using a bespoke database of the most innovative biopharma MNEs, describing the step-by-step procedure for building the MNE database and mapping the biopharma GVC at country, region and cluster level. Our policy recommendations are co-aligned with the existing framework - EU industrial policy: ‘Towards Industrial Renaissance’, Regional growth through Smart Specialisation Strategy, COSME programme for SME support, building Circular Economy for sustainable and inclusive growth, cluster internationalisation, and other relevant policy initiatives by the European Commission.
    Keywords: global value chains, methodology, mapping, smart specialisation, industrial modernisation, regional policy, European Union
    Date: 2016–10
  46. By: Wilson, Daniel J. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: The effects of weather on the economy, outside of agriculture, have been surprisingly understudied. This paper exploits vast granular local data on employment and weather – with over 10 million county-industry-month observations – to estimate dynamic panel data (DPD) models of weather’s short-run effects. The estimates from this model provide an in-depth understanding of exactly how weather affects the economy at the local level. Temperature (by season), precipitation, snowfall, and the frequency of very hot and very cold days within a month are found to have significant effects on local employment growth. The effects are generally transitory, with some key exceptions, and vary substantially across industries and regions. The fitted county DPD model then is used to generate estimates of the total weather effect on national employment growth. I evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample explanatory power of these estimates, compared with estimates from a national time-series model. While the estimated weather effects from the national time-series model yield a better in-sample fit, the estimated effects from the nationally-aggregated county DPD model provide a better out-of-sample fit.
    JEL: J21 Q54 R11
    Date: 2016–09–30
  47. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry
    Abstract: The costs of state pension plans are much in the news. Generally, people lump together these unfunded liabilities and make alarming claims that all state plans are about to go bankrupt. The evidence, though, suggests otherwise. On the other hand, looking just at pension plans and just at states doesn’t give the full picture of costs facing states and localities. This brief, based on a recent paper, provides a comprehensive accounting of state and local government liabilities for pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEB) and the fiscal burden that they pose. In accordance with new accounting guidelines, the analysis apportions the relevant liabilities of state-administered cost-sharing plans to local governments for a more accurate picture of where the burden lies. It also includes debt service costs to provide a full picture of government revenue commitments to long-term liabilities. To gauge the level of the burden, pension, OPEB, and debt service costs are compared to each jurisdiction’s own-source revenue. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section describes the scope of the analysis. The second section explains the methodology used for calculating the costs and choosing the revenue base. The third section presents the results for states, counties, and cities. The final section concludes that the outlook at the state and local level is extremely heterogeneous; a small minority face dire circumstances, but many jurisdictions appear to have their costs under control.
    Date: 2016–10
  48. By: David Bartolini; Sibylle Stossberg; Hansjörg Blöchliger
    Abstract: Fiscal decentralisation can lead to a more efficient provision of local public goods and services and promote a better match between policies and citizens’ preferences. At the same time, however, there are concerns about whether all regions will gain from more autonomy. Decentralisation may not lift all boats, with “poor” regions losing competitiveness with respect to better endowed ones, thus increasing regional disparities. The present work investigates the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and regional inequality within countries. Particular attention is paid to the different channels through which decentralisation can affect disparities: taxing powers, spending autonomy and the vertical fiscal imbalance. The empirical analysis, which is conducted on a sample of 30 OECD countries for the period 1995-2011, suggests that a balanced fiscal structure, where local spending is mainly financed by local taxation, reduces regional disparities, by providing an incentive to better use local resources and implement policies that favour economic development. Décentralisation budgétaire et disparités régionales Si la décentralisation budgétaire peut permettre d’améliorer l’efficience de la fourniture des biens et services publics locaux et promouvoir une meilleure adéquation entre les politiques publiques et les préférences des citoyens, la question de savoir si toutes les régions peuvent tirer parti d’une plus grande autonomie est source de préoccupation. Il est possible que la décentralisation ne profite pas à toutes les régions, et qu’elle se traduise, pour les régions « pauvres » par une perte de compétitivité par rapport à d’autres mieux dotées, exacerbant ainsi les disparités régionales. Les travaux en cours consistent en une analyse du lien entre la décentralisation budgétaire et les inégalités régionales au sein des pays. Une attention particulière y est accordée aux différents vecteurs par lesquels la décentralisation peut influer sur les disparités : compétences en matière fiscale, autonomie au niveau des dépenses et déséquilibre budgétaire vertical. Cette analyse empirique menée à partir d’un échantillon de 30 pays de l’OCDE sur la période 1995-2011, tend à démontrer qu’une structure budgétaire équilibrée, dans laquelle les dépenses locales sont financées essentiellement par la fiscalité locale, a pour effet de réduire les disparités régionales, car elle incite à une meilleure utilisation des ressources locales et à la mise en oeuvre de politiques qui favorisent le développement économique.
    Keywords: fiscal decentralisation, panel data, regional inequality
    JEL: H71 H77 R11
    Date: 2016–10–11
  49. By: ALIAH ALDUWAILAH (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: The paper reports an empirical study investigating transformational leadership practices among principals in public secondary schools in the State of Kuwait, as perceived by secondary-school teachers. This research adopted the taxonomy of the transformational leadership paradigm and the conceptual model for school restructuring proposed by Leithwood (1994) and Janie and Leithwood (1995). The respondents consisted of 682 teachers from 118 public secondary schools in six educational regions in Kuwait. The second-order confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the core transformational leadership dimensions of principals are: (I) cultivating extensively shared visions; (ii) constructing consensus about school goals and priorities; (iii) having high performance expectations; (iii) modelling behaviours; (iv) providing personal support to teachers and school staff; (v) providing intellectual stimulation; (vi) consolidating a school culture; and (vii) constructing a collaborative school structure. Such finding on transformational leadership behaviours in the Kuwaiti school context are highly consistent with the original model proposed by Leithwood (1994) and Janie and Leithwood (1995). In addition, the result on the measurement invariance showed that there was not statistical difference between male and female principals' transformational leadership model.
    Keywords: Principals' Transformational Leadership; Public Secondary Schools; Confirmatory Factor Analysis, The State of Kuwait
  50. By: Brian Goesling; Mindy E. Scott; Elizabeth Cook
    Abstract: Students in the treatment schools reported greater exposure to information on reproductive health topics such as sexually transmitted infections, abstinence, and birth control.
    Keywords: Family Health, Sexuality, HealthTeacher, Cluster Randomized Trial, Teen Pregnancy, Family Support
    JEL: I
  51. By: Tóth, Géza; Csomós, György
    Abstract: In her seminal work entitled ‘The Global City’, Saskia Sassen (1991) specified New York, London, Tokyo, Frankfurt and Paris as leading examples of global cities. Furthermore, she defined the most important characteristics of global cities (Sassen 2001: 4), one of which is that global cities are major sites of production of innovation. Since Sassen’s global city notion was first introduced, significant changes have occurred in the world economy, which can be characterised by, for example, the massive economic growth of developing countries, especially that of China, and rapid technological changes due to fast-growing industries such as nanotechnology, biotechnology and information technology (Nicolini and Nozza 2008; Dernis et al. 2015; Csomós and Tóth 2016a). As a result of these developments, global cities have been continuously losing their privileged position as major sites of production of innovation, and new competitors have emerged in developing countries, even in the home countries of the global cities.
    Keywords: gravity model, bidimensional regression, cities, economy, world
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10

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