nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2016‒09‒18
37 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The house price gradient: evidence from Italian cities By Elisabetta Manzoli; Sauro Mocetti
  2. Trajectories of Neighborhood Change: Spatial Patterns of Increasing Ethnic Diversity By Zwiers, Merle; van Ham, Maarten; Manley, David
  3. Industrial cluster policy and transaction networks: Evidence from firm-level data in Japan By Toshihiro Okubo; Tetsuji Okazaki; Eiichi Tomiura
  4. Do Loan-to-Value Ratio Regulation Changes Affect Canadian Mortgage Credit? By Kronick, Jeremy
  5. The Effect of Low-Income Housing on Neighborhood Mobility: Evidence from Linked Micro-Data By Brummet, Quentin O.; Bartalotti, Otávio C.
  6. Production networks, geography and firm performance By Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes; Yukiko U. Saito
  7. Liquidity Constraints, Wealth Transfers and Home Ownership By Blickle, Kristian; Brown, Martin
  8. Multilevel Transmission of Cultural Attitudes and Entrepreneurial Intention: Evidence from High-School Students By A. Tubadji; E. Santarelli; R. Patuelli
  9. Population aging and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption By Arlene Wong
  10. No student left behind? Evidence from the Programme for School Guidance in Spain By J. Ignacio Garcia-Perez; Marisa Hidalgo-Hidalgo
  11. Deregulation of the ASEAN air Transport Market: Measure of Impacts of Airport Activities on Local Economies By Isabelle Laplace; Chantal Latgé-Roucolle
  12. The Efficiency of Race-Neutral Alternatives to Race-Based Affirmative Action: Evidence from Chicago's Exam Schools By Glenn Ellison; Parag A. Pathak
  13. Multiple core regions: regional inequality in switzerland, 1860 to 2008 By Stohr, Christian
  14. Wage flexibility and employment fluctuations: evidence from the housing sector By Jörn-Steffen Pischke
  15. Rational land and housing bubbles in infinite-horizon economies By Stefano Bosi; Cuong Le Van; Ngoc-Sang Pham
  16. A spatial autoregressive panel model to analyze road network spillovers on production By Álvarez, Inmaculada C.; Barbero, Javier; Zofío, José L.
  17. Estimating border effects: the impact of spatial aggregation By Cletus C. Coughlin; Dennis Novy
  18. Exact Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Spatial Autoregressive Models By Grant Hillier; Federico Martellosio
  19. How Auctions Amplify House-Price Fluctuations By Alina Arefeva
  20. Identifying and Decomposing Peer Effects on Participation Decisions Using a Randomized Controlled Trial By SHIMAMOTO Daichi; TODO Yasuyuki; Yu Ri KIM; Petr MATOUS
  21. Exact Likelihood Inference in Group Interaction Network Models By Grant Hillier; Federico Martellosio
  22. Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities By Yi Huang; Marco Pagano; Ugo Panizza
  23. Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime By Samuel R. Bondurant; Jason M. Lindo; Isaac D. Swensen
  24. The persistence of inequality across Indian states By Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay
  25. Exploring the Community Structure of Complex Networks By Drago, Carlo
  26. Debt Constraints and Employment By Patrick Kehoe; Elena Pastorino; Virgiliu Midrigan
  27. Colocation and knowledge diffusion: evidence from million dollar plants By Christian Fons-Rosen; Vincenzo Scrutinio; Katalin Szemeredi
  28. The Usage of Complex Strategic Planning, Management, Implementation of the Strategy, the Cluster Approach and Innovation as a Means to Improve the Effectiveness of Regional Development [On the Example of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan Regions] By Kalenjyan, S.; Solntsev, V.I.; Vardapetyan, V.V.; Gumilevskaya, Olga
  29. The Impact of Grade Retention on Juvenile Crime By Juan Diaz; Nicolas Grau; Tatiana Reyes; Jorge Rivera
  30. Unlucky to Be Young? The Long-Term Effects of School Starting Age on Smoking Behaviour and Health By Bahrs, Michael; Schumann, Mathias
  31. Energy efficiency and rebound effect in European road freight transport By Llorca, Manuel; Jamasb, Tooraj
  32. River deep, mountain high: Of long-run knowledge trajectories within and between innovation clusters By Nomaler, Onder; Verspagen, Bart
  33. Agglomeration Economies, Productivity, and Quality Upgrading By SAITO Hisamitsu; MATSUURA Toshiyuki
  34. Modelling the effect of crime on economic activity: The case of Mexican states By Álvarez, Antonio; Garduño, Rafael; Núñez, Héctor
  35. Helping People and Communities Affected by Regional Economic Transitions 09.01.16 2016 Kentucky Summit on Philanthropy, The Kentucky Philanthropy Initiative, Lexington, Kentucky By Mester, Loretta J.
  36. Can Teacher Practices Reduce the Gender Gap in Mathematics Interest for Students with Different Achievements? By Yulia V. Kuzmina
  37. Small Area Estimation: New Developments and Directions for HHS Data By John L. Czajka; Amang Sukasih; Alyssa Maccarone

  1. By: Elisabetta Manzoli (Banca d'Italia); Sauro Mocetti (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: The paper examines the geographical variability in house prices, focusing on the gradient from the center to peripheral areas. The results reveal large price differentials in the main urban areas, even more than those between the Centre-North and South. The higher real estate prices in the centers of urban areas are affected by centripetal pressures from the demand side (also related to the local economic activities) to which supply only partially adjusts. We find that better infrastructures and lower commuting times can, however, bring the suburbs closer to the center and accordingly mitigate the cost of living centrally and the inclination of the gradient. Finally, we find a center-periphery gradient also for incomes, though this is less steep than that of house prices; it follows that the ratio between the value of houses and income is higher in the city center and lower in the periphery.
    Keywords: housing prices, agglomeration, mobility, income
    JEL: R30 R14 R41
    Date: 2016–09
  2. By: Zwiers, Merle (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Manley, David (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse and in most cities the share of ethnic minorities is growing. Studies analyzing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighborhoods between two points in time. Such a static approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighborhood change, and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyzes full trajectories of neighborhood change in the four largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorizes neighborhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing a longitudinal view of ethnic segregation. Our results show that the ethnic composition in neighborhoods remains relatively stable over time. We find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased (spatial) population mixing in most neighborhoods. We show how residential mobility decreases segregation, while natural population growth tends to reinforce segregation. While the ethnic minority presence in cities grows, there is a substantial share of neighborhoods which can be identified as white citadels; characterized by a stable large native population, with high incomes and high house values. These neighborhoods seem to be inaccessible to ethnic minorities, which illustrates the spatial manifestation of exclusionary elitism in increasingly ethnically diverse cities.
    Keywords: ethnic segregation, neighborhood trajectories, population dynamics, latent class growth modelling, longitudinal study
    JEL: J15 O18 R23
    Date: 2016–09
  3. By: Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Eiichi Tomiura (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)
    Abstract: Cluster policy is designed to facilitate inter-firm networking. We examine industrial clusters in Japan based on firm-level transaction data. Firms in clusters expand transaction networks at a higher speed, but significantly only with firms in the agglomerated core Tokyo, not with local firms within the same region. We confirm the robustness by regional historical background as instruments. By disaggregating firms by their main bank types, we find that cluster firms expanding networks are mainly financed by regional banks, not by banks with nation-wide operations. This suggests the importance of intensive relationship with the main banks for inter-firm network formation.
    Keywords: cluster policy, transaction network
    JEL: O25 R11 R38 R58
    Date: 2016–08–01
  4. By: Kronick, Jeremy
    Abstract: ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the relationship in the Canadian housing market between loan-to-value (“LTV”) ratios and residential mortgage credit over the 1981-2012 time period. More specifically, I look to determine whether LTV ratio regulation provides a mechanism with which to slow down the potentially overheated Canadian housing market. Due to the endogeneity of many macroeconomic variables, I use a structural vector autoregression (“SVAR”) to investigate this question. Results indicate that three of the four major LTV regulation changes that occurred during this timeframe either had insignificant effects on mortgage credit, or caused it to move contrary to expectations. Only the 2008 tightening of LTV was weakly significant. Therefore, regulation changes to LTV ratios are unlikely to be successful in slowing down the overheated housing market in Canada, which may force central bankers to use broader monetary policy or other forms of macroprudential regulation.
    Keywords: Mortgage credit, macroprudential regulation, loan-to-value, monetary policy, Canada
    JEL: E52 G21 G28
    Date: 2015–04–30
  5. By: Brummet, Quentin O.; Bartalotti, Otávio C.
    Abstract: While subsidized low-income housing construction provides affordable living conditions for poor households, many observers worry that building low-income housing in poor communities induces individuals to move to poor neighborhoods. We examine this issue using detailed, nationally representative microdata constructed from linked decennial censuses. Our analysis exploits exogenous variation in low-income housing supply induced by program eligibility rules for Low-Income Housing Tax Credits to estimate the effect of subsidized housing on neighborhood mobility patterns. The results indicate little evidence to suggest a causal effect of additional low-income housing construction on the characteristics of neighborhoods to which households move. This result is true for households across the income distribution, and supports the hypothesis that subsidized housing provides affordable living conditions without encouraging households to move to less-affluent neighborhoods than they would have otherwise.
    Date: 2016–05–13
  6. By: Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes; Yukiko U. Saito
    Abstract: This paper examines the importance of buyer-supplier relationships, geography and the structure of the production network in firm performance. We develop a simple model where firms can outsource tasks and search for suppliers in different locations. Low search and outsourcing costs lead firms to search more and find better suppliers. This in turn drives down the firm’s marginal production costs. We test the theory by exploiting the opening of a high-speed (Shinkansen) train line in Japan which lowered the cost of passenger travel but left shipping costs unchanged. Using an exhaustive dataset on firms’ buyer-seller linkages, we find significant improvements in firm performance as well as creation of new buyer-seller links, consistent with the model.
    Keywords: production networks; trade; productivity; infrastructure
    JEL: D85 F14 L10 L14 R12
    Date: 2016–06
  7. By: Blickle, Kristian; Brown, Martin
    Abstract: We study the impact of liquidity constraints on home ownership by comparing the tenure and housing choice of households who receive intra-family wealth transfers to those that do not. Our analysis is based on household-level panel data providing annual information on household characteristics, wealth transfers, tenure status as well as changes in the size and quality of housing. Our treatment effect estimates suggest that wealth transfers increase the propensity of households to transition to ownership by 15 to 20 percentage points. By contrast, wealth transfers do not increase the likelihood that existing homeowners “trade-up” to larger homes in better locations.
    Keywords: Liquidity Constraints, Tenure Choice, Wealth Transfers, Macroprudential Policy
    JEL: D14 D31 D91 G18
    Date: 2016–09
  8. By: A. Tubadji; E. Santarelli; R. Patuelli
    Abstract: Intention toward any occupational choice can be widely categorized as a rational choice process combined with a subjective attitude function. There is extensive literature dealing with the formation of intention toward entrepreneurship in adolescents, in particular as a result of either parental (vertical) transmission of social capital or network effects from peers or neighbours (the latter two being two different levels of horizontal transmission varying in proximity in terms of bonding and bridging). We contribute to this literature by considering the joint effect of all these three levels simultaneously, in order to avoid an underspecification of the model due to omission of important cultural factors. We hypothesize that such three levels identify a mechanism where the individual perception of their importance interacts with their objective characteristics. With data for second-year high-school students, and employing empirical triangulation through Logit and 3SLS methods, we find evidence for a strong parental effect and of secondary peer effects on student intention. We also detect clear endogenous effects from the neighbourhood and the overall cultural context. Moreover, entrepreneurship is confirmed to be perceived, even by students, as a buffer for unemployment and social mobility.
    JEL: R32 R38 Z10 J60
    Date: 2016–08
  9. By: Arlene Wong (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: Previous work has documented that housing and refinancing decisions play an important role in shaping the aggregate and cross-sectional consumption elasticities to interest rate shocks. New home purchases and refinances can then affect durable and non-durable consumption through the associated fluctuations in disposable income and the complementarity between housing and consumption. In this paper, we examine the transmission of monetary policy through housing debt. Specifically, we use detailed micro data to study the mortgage channel that links monetary policy with household borrowing and consumption expenditure. Specifically, we quantify the heterogeneity across borrowers and state-dependency in the pass-through of interest rate shocks to consumption over the Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rate cycle.
    Date: 2016
  10. By: J. Ignacio Garcia-Perez; Marisa Hidalgo-Hidalgo
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of a remedial education programme implemented in Spain between 2005 and 2012 that o¤ered after-school classes for underperforming students from poor socioeconomic backgrounds. We use two different estimation strategies, re-weighting estimators and propensity score matching, and address the existence of selection bias. We find that this programme had a substantial positive e¤ect on children’s academic achievement: the probability of falling behind the general progress of the group declined by approximately 5% and mean reading scores increased by approximately 10% of one standard deviation. We also find that a larger exposure to the programme improves students’ scores: whereas students in schools that participated in the programme for at most two years do not experience any significant positive effect, those in schools that participated for at least three years did. The programme significantly reduced the probability of belonging to the bottom part of the distribution (by approximately 7.5%) and improved mean scores (by approximately 18% of one standard deviation). Finally, we find that the impact of the programme is much stronger for students in rural schools than for students in urban schools.
    Date: 2016–09
  11. By: Isabelle Laplace (ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile); Chantal Latgé-Roucolle (LEEA - ENAC - Laboratoire d'Economie et d'Econométrie de l'Aérien - PRES Université de Toulouse - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile)
    Abstract: ASEAN Member States are currently in a step through liberalization of air traffic market in their region. The target is the 5th freedom right for South-East Asia in 2020. Two opposite effects might be observed following the deregulation: one negative on flag carrier due to increase in competition, one positive on national and regional economies. One main issue concerns the impact of expected development of airport activity on national and regional economies. We propose an estimation of these impact, using a two stage econometric model applied to four ASEAN countries. We show that GDP is the most sensible to air traffic growth in region where only international airports are located, that is for region that exhibit the highest level of development. We show that up to the 5th freedom right, given the expectation in tourism development, national GDP is expected to increase by 9% (Myanmar) to 51% (The Philippines) depending on the country. The magnitude of the impact depends on the tourism development expectation as well as on the tourism contribution to GDP. The analysis show then that economic benefit of air transport liberalization are non-negligible for the ASEAN countries. Given the magnitude of the estimated effect, the benefits would certainly overlap the negative effect of competition on the flag carriers.
    Keywords: Airport capacity
    Date: 2016–05–01
  12. By: Glenn Ellison; Parag A. Pathak
    Abstract: Several public K-12 and university systems have recently shifted from race-based affirmative action plans to race-neutral alternatives. This paper explores the degree to which race-neutral alternatives are effective substitutes for racial quotas using data from the Chicago Public Schools (CPS), where a race-neutral, place-based affirmative action system is used for admissions at highly competitive exam high schools. We develop a theoretical framework that motivates quantifying the efficiency cost of race-neutral policies by the extent admissions decisions are distorted more than needed to achieve a given level of diversity. According to our metric, CPS's race-neutral system is 24% and 20% efficient as a tool for increasing minority representation at the top two exam schools, i.e. about three-fourths of the reduction in composite scores could have been avoided by explicitly considering race. Even though CPS's system is based on socioeconomic disadvantage, it is actually less effective than racial quotas at increasing the number of low-income students. We examine several alternative race-neutral policies and find some to be more efficient than the CPS policy. What is feasible varies with the school's surrounding neighborhood characteristics and the targeted level of minority representation. However, no race-neutral policy restores minority representation to prior levels without substantial inefficiency, implying significant efficiency costs from prohibitions on affirmative action policies that explicitly consider race.
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2016–09
  13. By: Stohr, Christian
    Abstract: This paper estimates regional GDP for three different geographical levels in Switzerland. My analysis of regional inequality rests on a heuristic model featuring an initial growth impulse in one or several core regions and subsequent diffusion. As a consequence of the existence of multiple core regions Swiss regional inequality has been comparatively low at higher geographical levels. Spatial diffusion of economic growth has occurred across different parts of the country and within different labor market regions at the same time. This resulted in a bell-shape evolution of regional inequality at the micro regional level and convergence at higher geographical levels. In early and in late stages of the development process, productivity differentials were the main drivers of inequality, whereas economic structure was determinant between 1888 and 1941.
    Keywords: Regional data, Inequality, Industrial structure, Productivity, Comparative advantage, Switzerland
    JEL: R10 R11 N93 O14 O18
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Jörn-Steffen Pischke
    Abstract: Many economists suspect that downward nominal wage rigidities in ongoing labor contracts are an important source of employment fluctuations over the business cycle but there is little direct empirical evidence on this conjecture. This paper compares three occupations in the housing sector with very different wage setting institutions, real estate agents, architects, and construction workers. I study the wage and employment responses of these occupations to the housing cycle, a proxy for labor demand shocks to the industry. The employment of real estate agents, whose pay is far more flexible than the other occupations, indeed reacts less to the cycle than employment in the other occupations. However, unless labor demand elasticities are large, the estimates do not suggest that the level of wage flexibility enjoyed by real estate agents would buffer employment fluctuations in response to demand shocks by more than 10 to 20 percent compared to completely rigid wages.
    Keywords: Wage setting; wage rigidity; commissions; real estate agents; architects; construction workers
    JEL: E24 J20 J44
    Date: 2016–07
  15. By: Stefano Bosi (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne); Cuong Le Van (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPAG BUSINESS SCHOOL - IPAG BUSINESS SCHOOL PARIS, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Ngoc-Sang Pham (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne, LEM - Lille - Economie et Management - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Fédération Universitaire et Polytechnique de Lille - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper considers rational land and housing bubbles in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model. Their demands rest on two different grounds: the land is an input to produce while the house may be consumed. Our work differs from the existing literature in two respects. First, dividends on both these long-lived assets are endogenous and their sequences are computed. Second, we introduce and study different concepts of bubbles, including individual and strong bubbles.
    Keywords: housing bubble,infinite horizon,general equilibrium,land bubble
    Date: 2016–02
  16. By: Álvarez, Inmaculada C.; Barbero, Javier; Zofío, José L.
    Abstract: The production function approach is used to introduce the effect of public infrastructure on economic growth focusing on its spillover effects. We improve the existing literature both from a conceptual and methodological perspective. As regressors we incorporate variables related to the new concepts of internal and imported transport infrastructure capital stocks, which are actually used in commercial flows, calculated by network analysis performed in GIS. The internally used capital stock represents own infrastructure that benefits accessing markets within the region itself, while the imported capital stock captures the spillover effect associated to the use of the infrastructure situated in neighboring regions. From a methodological perspective, we introduce spatial interdependence into these models, applying the most recent spatial econometric techniques based on instrumental variables estimation in spatial autoregressive panel models in comparison with Maximum Likelihood estimation methods. We illustrate the methodology with Spanish provincial panel data for the period 1980-2007. Results support the hypothesis that the imported capital has a positive spillover effect on production.
    Date: 2016
  17. By: Cletus C. Coughlin; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the model's predictions, with quantitatively large effects.
    Keywords: Gravity; Geography; Borders; Trade Costs; Heterogeneity; Home Bias; Spatial Attenuation; Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
    JEL: F10 F15 R12
    Date: 2016–05
  18. By: Grant Hillier (CeMMAP and University of Southampton); Federico Martellosio (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: The (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for the autoregressive parameter in a spatial autoregressive model cannot in general be written explicitly in terms of the data. The only known properties of the estimator have hitherto been its first-order asymptotic properties (Lee, 2004, Econometrica), derived under specific assumptions on the evolution of the spatial weights matrix involved. In this paper we show that the exact cumulative distribution function of the estimator can, under mild assumptions, be written in terms of that of a particular quadratic form. A number of immediate consequences of this result are discussed, and some examples are analyzed in detail. The examples are of interest in their own right, but also serve to illustrate some unexpected features of the distribution of the MLE. In particular, we show that the distribution of the MLE may not be supported on the entire parameter space, and may be nonanalytic at some points in its support.
    JEL: C12 C21
    Date: 2016–05
  19. By: Alina Arefeva (Stanford)
    Abstract: I develop a tractable dynamic model of the housing market where the prices are determined in auctions rather than by Nash bargaining as in the standard housing search model. Markets that use auctions mimic actual housing markets, in that the model can portray a ``hot" market where numerous buyers flock to each new house on the market and a ``cold" market, where numerous houses are on the market and a buyer has a wide choice without competing directly with other buyers. In the auction model prices are higher, the inventory is bigger and waiting times are longer in the steady state compared to the standard model. The dynamic response of prices to shocks is larger in the auction model than in the bargaining model. Auctions amplify the response of house prices to shocks because prices respond more to changes in the present value of the housing services, and the option value to sell is more sensitive to the state of the housing market. The equilibrium allocations of the auction and Nash bargaining model are not socially efficient, so the government interventions are desirable.
    Date: 2016
  20. By: SHIMAMOTO Daichi; TODO Yasuyuki; Yu Ri KIM; Petr MATOUS
    Abstract: Utilizing a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in traditional clusters of apparel and textile firms in Vietnam, this paper investigates how firms' decisions to participate in seminars on export promotion are affected by their information exchange peers. We identify the effect of the number of peers participating in the seminars by using the number of randomly invited peers as an instrument. In addition, because we held three one-day seminars consecutively and invited each firm to one of the seminars, we can isolate the peer effects based on the reduction of the psychological costs of participation--or social utility--from other effects through information confirmation among the peer participants and free riding on peer information. We find that peers' participation in the seminars has a positive effect overall. To further decompose this positive effect, we distinguish between peers participating on the same day and other days, finding that the former has a positive effect while the latter has no significant effect. These results imply that peer effects arise mostly through the social utility channel. The presence of positive peer effects suggests that multiple equilibria in terms of the share of participants within each network of firms may emerge, which is also consistent with our observations.
    Date: 2016–08
  21. By: Grant Hillier (CeMMAP and University of Southampton); Federico Martellosio (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: The paper studies spatial autoregressive models with group interaction structure, focussing on estimation and inference for the spatial autoregressive parameter \lambda. The quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for \lambda usually cannot be written in closed form, but using an exact result obtained earlier by the authors for its distribution function, we are able to provide a complete analysis of the properties of the estimator, and exact inference that can be based on it, in models that are balanced. This is presented rst for the so-called pure model, with no regression component, but is also extended to some special cases of the more general model. We then study the much more dicult case of unbalanced models, giving analogues of some, but by no means all, of the results obtained for the balanced case earlier. In both balanced and unbalanced models, results obtained for the pure model generalize immediately to the model with group-specific regression components.
    Date: 2016–05
  22. By: Yi Huang (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II); Ugo Panizza (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: In China, local public debt issuance between 2006 and 2013 crowded out investment by private manufacturing firms by tightening their funding constraints, while it did not affect state-owned and foreign firms. Using novel data for local public debt issuance, we establish this result in three ways. First, local public debt is inversely correlated with the city-level investment ratio of domestic private manufacturing firms. Instrumental variable regressions indicate that this link is causal. Second, local public debt has a larger negative effect on investment by private firms in industries more dependent on external funding. Finally, in cities with high government debt, firm-level investment is more sensitive to internal funding, also when this sensitivity is estimated jointly with the firm?s likelihood of being credit-constrained. Altogether, these results suggest that, by curtailing private investment, the massive public debt issuance associated with the post-2008 fiscal stimulus sapped long-term growth prospects in China.
    Keywords: Investment, Local public debt, Crowding out, Credit constraints, China.
    JEL: E22 H63 H74 L60 O16
    Date: 2016–07
  23. By: Samuel R. Bondurant; Jason M. Lindo; Isaac D. Swensen
    Abstract: In this paper we estimate the effects of expanding access to substance-abuse treatment on local crime. We do so using an identification strategy that leverages variation driven by substance-abuse-treatment facility openings and closings measured at the county level. The results indicate that substance-abuse-treatment facilities reduce both violent and financially motivated crimes in an area, and that the effects are particularly pronounced for relatively serious crimes. The effects on homicides are documented across three sources of homicide data.
    JEL: I12 K14 K42
    Date: 2016–09
  24. By: Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay
    Abstract: The persistence of regional inequalities in developing countries is well recognised to be of great concern. In this paper I track stochastic convergence in relative incomes for Indian states between 1960-2011 with the intent to identify high persistence and mean reversal. Traditional unit root tests suggest that shocks to relative incomes across the Indian states are permanent thus contradicting the stochastic convergence hypothesis. Interval estimates of the largest autoregressive root for the relative incomes of 15 Indian states are very wide. However, confidence interval estimates of the half life of the relative income shocks, that are robust to high persistence and small samples, reveal that in most cases they die out within 10 years, suggesting mean reversion for a large number of states. Finally, I estimate a fractionally integrated model and obtain mixed evidence of mean reversion in the data, with six out of the fifteen states experiencing mean reversion. In sum, while the evidence obtained does not support the stochastic convergence hypothesis, our findings reveal that the relative incomes have a relatively short half life and that some states relative incomes are mean-everting. This result is encouraging and in contrast to earlier studies which indicate long term divergence and polarisation (Bandyopadhyay 2011).
    Keywords: Inequality; Stochastic Convergence; Half Life; Fractional Integration; India
    JEL: D30
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Drago, Carlo
    Abstract: Regarding complex networks, one of the most relevant problems is to understand and to explore community structure. In particular it is important to define the network organization and the functions associated to the different network partitions. In this context, the idea is to consider some new approaches based on interval data in order to represent the different relevant network components as communities. The method is also useful to represent the network community structure, especially the network hierarchical structure. The application of the methodologies is based on the Italian interlocking directorship network.
    Keywords: Complex Networks, Community Detection, Communities, Interval Data, Interlocking Directorates, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C4, C60, L14,
    Date: 2016–09–09
  26. By: Patrick Kehoe; Elena Pastorino; Virgiliu Midrigan
    Abstract: During the Great Recession, regions of the United States that experienced the largest declines in household debt also experienced the largest drops in consumption, employment, and wages. Employment declines were larger in the nontradable sector and for firms that were facing the worst credit conditions. Motivated by these findings, we develop a search and matching model with credit frictions that affect both consumers and firms. In the model, tighter debt constraints raise the cost of investing in new job vacancies and thus reduce worker job finding rates and employment. Two key features of our model, on-the-job human capital accumulation and consumer-side credit frictions, are critical to generating sizable drops in employment. On-the-job human capital accumulation makes the flows of benefits from posting vacancies long-lived and so greatly amplifies the sensitivity of such investments to credit frictions. Consumer-side credit frictions further magnify these effects by leading wages to fall only modestly. We show that the model reproduces well the salient cross-regional features of the U.S. data during the Great Recession.
    JEL: E21 E24 E32 J21 J64
    Date: 2016–09
  27. By: Christian Fons-Rosen; Vincenzo Scrutinio; Katalin Szemeredi
    Abstract: This paper uses the entry of large corporations into U.S. counties during the 1980s and 1990s to analyse the effect of plant opening on knowledge spillovers to local inventors. We use a difference-in-differences identification strategy exploiting information on the revealed ranking of possible locations for large plants in the US. Under the identifying assumption that locations not chosen (losers) are a counterfactual for the chosen location (winner), we find that patents of these large corporations are 68% more likely to be cited in the winning counties relative to the losing counties after entry. The effect materializes after the opening of the plant, rather than after the entry decision itself. The increase in citations is stronger for more recent patents whereas patent quality does not seem to play an important role. We find that the increase in citations is larger from patents belonging to the same technology class of the cited patent.
    Keywords: productivity; innovation; knowledge diffusion
    JEL: O3 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–08
  28. By: Kalenjyan, S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Solntsev, V.I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Vardapetyan, V.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gumilevskaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The description of the approaches to the formation of the complex methods and tools for designing strategic plans for the cluster and innovation development of the regions to improve the efficiency of regional development programs in accordance with the system of multi-level priorities. Proposed methodology for assessing the quality and level of innovation and cluster development of regions on the basis of studying the experience of the individual regions of Russia and Kazakhstan. The results can be used to improve the work of regional and federal levels of strategic planning in the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: cluster development, innovation development, Russia, Kazakhstan
    Date: 2016–06–28
  29. By: Juan Diaz; Nicolas Grau; Tatiana Reyes; Jorge Rivera
    Abstract: Using detailed administrative and individual data on schooling and crime records from Chile, we estimate the effect of grade retention between 4th and 8th grade on juvenile crime. We base our research on the rule which specifies that students who fail more than one subject must repeat the year. We present two empiri- cal strategies to address the strong evidence that the forcing variable is – locally – manipulated. First, we follow Barreca, Guldi, Lindo, and Waddell (2011) in implementing a donut-hole fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRD). Second, we extend the approach developed by Keele, Titiunik, and Zubizarreta (2015) to implement a method that combines matching with FRD. These two methodolo- gies deliver similar results and neither show a statistically significant effect on a placebo test. According to our results, grade retention increases the probability of juvenile crime by 1.6 percentage point (pp), an increase of 33% (higher for males and low SES students). We also find that grade retention increases the probability of dropping out by 1.5pp. Regarding mechanisms, our findings suggest that the effect of grade retention on crime does not only manifest itself indirectly as a result of its effect on dropping out. Furthermore, the effect of grade retention on crime is worsened when students switch schools right after failing the grade.
    Date: 2016–09
  30. By: Bahrs, Michael; Schumann, Mathias
    Abstract: In this study, we analyse the long-term effects of school starting age on smoking behaviour and health in adulthood. School entry rules combined with birth month are used as an instrument for school starting age. The analysis adopts the German Socio- Economic Panel data and employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The results reveal that school starting age reduces the long-term risk to smoke, improves long-term health, and affects physical rather than mental health. In addition, we find that the relative age composition of peers and the school environment are important mechanisms.
    Keywords: smoking,health,peer effects,education,school starting age,regression discontinuity design
    JEL: I12 I21 I28
    Date: 2016
  31. By: Llorca, Manuel; Jamasb, Tooraj
    Abstract: Energy efficiency has become a primary energy policy goal in Europe and many other countries and has conditioned the policies towards energy-intensive sectors such as road freight transport. However, energy efficiency improvements can lead to changes in the demand for energy services that offset some of the expected energy savings in the form of rebound effects. Consequently, forecasts of energy savings can be overstated. This paper analyses the energy efficiency and rebound effects for road freight transport in 15 European countries during the 1992-2012 period. We use a recent methodology to estimate an energy demand function using a stochastic frontier analysis approach and examine the influence of key features of rebound effect in the road freight transport sector. We obtain on average a fuel efficiency of 91% and a rebound effect of 18%. Our results indicate that the achieved energy efficiencies are retained to a large extent. We also find, among other results, that the rebound effect is higher in countries with higher fuel efficiency and better quality of logistics. Finally, a simulation analysis shows significant environmental externalities costs even in countries with lower rebound effect.
    Date: 2016
  32. By: Nomaler, Onder (UNU-MERIT, and Eindhoven University of Technology); Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University, SBE)
    Abstract: We bring together the topics of geographical clusters and technological trajectories, and shift the focus of the analysis of regional innovation to main technological trends rather than firms. We define a number of inventive clusters in the US space and show that long chains of citations mostly take place between these clusters. This is reminiscent of the idea of global pipelines of knowledge transfer that is found in the geographical literature. The deep citations are used to identify technological trajectories, which are the main directions along which incremental technological progress accumulates into larger changes. While the origin and destination of these trajectories are concentrated in space, the intermediate nodes travel long distances and cover many locations across the globe. We conclude by calling for more theoretical and empirical attention to the "deep rivers" that connect the "high mountains" of local knowledge production.
    Keywords: patent citations, regional concentration of inventive activities, technological trajectories, regional clusters, technological trends
    JEL: O33 O31 R11
    Date: 2016–09–14
  33. By: SAITO Hisamitsu; MATSUURA Toshiyuki
    Abstract: Empirical studies on agglomeration have focused on the identification of its productivity-enhancement effects. A reduction in marginal costs due to agglomeration economies increases the operating profit of firms, which enables them to employ more inputs to produce higher-quality products. This study examines such effects of agglomeration on product quality by using plant-product-level data for Japanese manufacturing. Empirical findings confirm that product quality increases with the market size of regions, suggesting that agglomeration-inducing polices are effective for increasing firms' profits by improving both productivity and product quality. Stated differently, our results indicate that the benefits of agglomeration on profits are underestimated in previous studies by ignoring its contribution to quality upgrading.
    Date: 2016–08
  34. By: Álvarez, Antonio; Garduño, Rafael; Núñez, Héctor
    Abstract: We estimate the technical efficiency of Mexican states using stochastic production frontier models. In particular, we study the effect of crime on efficiency. The empirical section uses panel data over the period 1988-2008. A distinctive feature of the paper is the use of socioeconomic and location data in order to control for the heterogeneity of the states. The main contribution of this paper is to test for the existence of a threshold effect of crime. We find that crime rate negatively affects the efficiency of the states and that its effect is only significant after a certain level.
    Keywords: Regional efficiency, stochastic frontier, Mexico, panel data, crime
    JEL: D24 O18 R11
    Date: 2016
  35. By: Mester, Loretta J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
    Abstract: I thank the Kentucky Philanthropy Initiative (KPI) for inviting me to be with you today, and for the great partnership KPI has forged with the Cleveland Fed as we work together to understand and find solutions to the economic challenges facing this region. I appreciate this opportunity not only to enjoy the beautiful bluegrass scenery but also to gather firsthand information about economic conditions in this part of the country. Yesterday I observed an electrical/fiber optic lineman training program at Hazard Community and Technical College and met with representatives of the Eastern Kentucky Concentrated Employment Program, the Foundation for Appalachian Kentucky, the Housing Development Alliance, and the Mountain Association for Community Economic Development. These were very productive discussions.
    Keywords: employment; coal mining; retraining;
    Date: 2016–09–01
  36. By: Yulia V. Kuzmina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Researchers have postulated that there is a positive effect of autonomy-supportive teacher practices on academic interest. Few studies, however, investigate how these practices can reduce the gender gap in mathematics interest. The goal of our study is to examine how autonomy-supportive practices effect on attitudes toward mathematics for girls and boys with different level of mathematics achievements. We used data from the Russian longitudinal study “Trajectories in Education and Career” (TrEC) to identify teacher practices which can reduce the gender gap in mathematics interest. Using hierarchical linear regression analysis we focused on two types of teacher practices: autonomy-supportive and controlling. We conducted analysis for boys and girls separately and evaluated how the effect of teacher practices on mathematics interest varies for boys and girls in general and according to their level of mathematics achievements. Our analysis demonstrates that girls are more sensitive to different teacher practices and some autonomy-supportive practices have a positive effect on mathematics interest for girls only and no effect on boys’ interest. We also identified that some teacher practices have different effects on students’ interest according to the level of their prior achievements. Autonomy-supportive practices are more important for students with high achievements
    Keywords: mathematics interest, intrinsic motivation to learn mathematics, gender differences, autonomy-supportive practices, controlling practices
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  37. By: John L. Czajka; Amang Sukasih; Alyssa Maccarone
    Abstract: This report is intended to assist agencies within the Department of Health and Human Services and the broader federal statistical community in making more effective use of small area estimates to address data gaps for small geographic areas and populations.
    Keywords: Small area estimates, data analytics, design, survey, statistics

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