nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2016‒08‒21
forty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Ethnic Drift and White Flight: A Gravity Model of Neighborhood Formation By Jessie Bakens; Raymond Florax; Peter Mulder
  2. Tracking and stress-testing U.S. household leverage By Fuster, Andreas; Guttman-Kenney, Benedict; Haughwout, Andrew F.
  3. Social Networks and Housing Market Investments By Johannes Stroebel
  4. Impact of public-private-partnership programs on students’ learning outcomes: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment By Hafeez, Fatima; Haider, Adnan; Zafar, Naeem uz
  5. Quantifying the effect of labor market size on learning externalities By Peters, Jan Cornelius
  6. Seaport Status, Access, and Regional Development in Indonesia By Muhammad Halley Yudhistira; Yusuf Sofyandi
  7. Exuberance, Bubbles or Froth? Some Historical Results using Long Run House Price Data for Amsterdam, Norway and Paris By Yang Hu; Les Oxley
  8. Multilevel Transmission of Cultural Attitudes and Entrepreneurial Intention: Evidence from High-School Students By Annie Tubadji; Enrico Santarelli; Roberto Patuelli
  9. Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China By Wang, Xu; Zhang, Xiaobo; Xie, Zhuan; Huang, Yiping
  10. When Incentives Backfire: Spillover Effects in Food Choice By Anya Samek; Heather Royer; Manuela Angelucci; Silvia Prina
  11. Smart Specialization as an innovation-driven strategy for economic diversification: Examples from Scandinavian regions By Asheim, Bjørn; Grillitsch, Markus; Trippl, Michaela
  12. Charter Schools and Labor Market Outcomes By Will S. Dobbie; Roland G. Fryer, Jr
  13. Two-way migration between similiar countries By Kreickemeier, Udo; Wrona, Jens
  14. Conditions and Practices Associated with Teacher Professional Development and Its Impact on Instruction in TALIS 2013 By Darleen Opfer
  15. Does personality matter? : The impact of the big five on the migrant and gender wage gaps By Brenzel, Hanna; Laible, Marie-Christine
  16. Access to Education and Teenage Pregnancy By Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner; Jesse Matheson
  17. Smart Specialisation: Creating Growth through Trans-national co-operation and Value Chains By Age Mariussen; Ruslan Rakhmatullin; Lina Stanionyte
  18. A Model of Rush-Hour Traffic Dynamics in an Isotropic Downtown Area By Richard Arnott; Anatolii Kokoza; Mehdi Naji
  19. Pollution or Crime: The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Criminal Activity By Paul Carrillo; Andrea López; Arun Malik
  20. Money or Fun? Why Students Want to Pursue Further Education By Belfield, Chris; Boneva, Teodora; Rauh, Christopher; Shaw, Jonathan
  21. Local Labor Markets and Natural Resources: A Synthesis of the Literature By Marchand, Joseph; Weber, Jeremy
  22. Is it Displacement? Evidence on the Impact of Police Monitoring on Crime By Ignacio Munyo; Martín Rossi
  23. Credit contractions and unemployment By Mihály Tamás Bors
  24. Pay for Locally Monitored Performance? A Welfare Analysis for Teacher Attendance in Ugandan Primary Schools By Cilliers, Jacobus; Kasirye, Ibrahim; Leaver, Clare; Serneels, Pieter; Zeitlin, Andrew
  25. A Pseudo-Panel Approach to Estimating Dynamic Effects of Road Infrastructure Provision on Firm Performance in a Developing Country Context By Samira Barzin; Sabine D'Costa; Daniel Graham
  26. Understanding the Dynamics of Labor Income Inequality in Latin America By Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán; Luis F. López-Calva; Nora Lustig; Daniel Valderrama
  27. Housing Policies in Africa & Brazil: The role of PPPs for low-income housing By Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
  28. Mortgage modifications and loan performance By Danne, Christian; McGuinness, Anne
  29. Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: A Review of Recent Data By Keenan, Enda; Kinghan, Christina; McCarthy, Yvonne; O'Toole, Conor
  30. Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and the Adjustment of Local Employment By Dustmann, Christian; Schönberg, Uta; Stuhler, Jan
  31. Taking the High Road? Compliance with Commuter Tax Allowances and the Role of Evasion Spillovers By Paetzold, Jörg; Winner, Hannes
  32. The Distribution of Technological Activities in Europe: A Regional Perspective By Rinaldo Evangelista; Valentina Meliciani; Antonio Vezzani
  33. A Spatial Production Economy Explains Zipf’s Law for Gross Metropolitan Product By Watanabe, Hiroki
  34. Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans? By Kelly, Robert; O'Toole, Conor
  35. Cities and agricultural transformation in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia By Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Swinnen, Johan
  36. Do age complementarities affect labor productivity? Evidence from German firm level data By Peters, Jan Cornelius
  37. The Consequences of Gentrification: A Focus on Residents’ Financial Health in Philadelphia By Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn
  38. Does labor supply modeling affect findings of transport policy analyses? By Hirte, Georg; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
  39. Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Freedom, and Political and Civil Liberties in the Americas By Antonio N. Bojanic
  40. Migration Experience and Access to a First Job in Uganda By Boutin, Delphine
  41. Delving into the Demand Side: Changes in Workplace Specialization and Job Polarization By Cortes, Guido Matias; Salvatori, Andrea
  42. The Impact of Lagging-Region Status on District Poverty in Indonesia By Rus'an Nasrudin
  43. Regional development in Spain 1989-2010: capital widening and productivity stagnation By Montes-Solla, Paulino; Faiña Medín, J. Andres; Lopez-Rodriguez, Jesus
  44. Collusive Upward Gasoline Price Movements in Medium-Sized German Cities By Arne Neukirch; Thomas Wein
  45. Cultural proximity and loan outcomes By Raymond Fisman; Daniel Paravisini; Vikrant Vig
  46. Losing work, moving away? Regional mobility after job loss By Fackler, Daniel; Rippe, Lisa

  1. By: Jessie Bakens (OIS, Municipality of Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Raymond Florax (Purdue University, United States; VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Peter Mulder (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)
    Abstract: Ethnicity has become an increasingly important factor in neighborhood formation in many developed economies. We specify a gravity model for neighborhoods to assess the role of ethnicity in intra-urban residential relocations. Migration patterns of different ethnic groups are hypothesized to depend on bilateral socioeconomic, demographic and ethnic differences between origin and destination neighborhoods. We account for heterogeneous and interdependent location preferences of natives and several immigrant groups. In addition, we incorporate friction measures of ethnic population shares and a diversity indicator to allow for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of the population composition on ethnic sorting and spatial clustering. We utilize a unique micro data set of place-to-place migrants across neighborhoods in the urban agglomerations of Amsterdam and The Hague, in The Netherlands. Our results provide evidence of ethnic drift leading to clustering of ethnic minority groups and "white flight" of native Dutch residents. Taken together, our findings suggest a preference for living among people of one's own ethnic group, but in a sufficiently diverse neighborhood. We discuss ways to extend and apply our gravity approach to further analyze intra-urban residential relocation flows.
    Keywords: neighborhood formation; ethnicity; diversity; immigrants; gravity model
    JEL: C21 F22 J15 J61 R23
    Date: 2016–08–18
  2. By: Fuster, Andreas (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Guttman-Kenney, Benedict (U.K. Financial Conduct Authority); Haughwout, Andrew F. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Borrowers’ housing equity is an important component of their wealth and a critical determinant of their vulnerability to shocks. In this paper, we create a unique data set that allows us to provide a comprehensive look at the ratio of housing debt to housing values—what we refer to as household leverage—at the micro level. An advantage of our data is that we are able to study the evolution of household leverage over time and across locations in the United States. We find that leverage was at a very low point just prior to the large declines in house prices that began in 2006, but it rose very quickly thereafter, despite reductions in housing debt. As of late 2015, leverage statistics are approaching their pre-crisis levels, as house prices have risen over 30 percent nationally since 2012. We use our borrower-level leverage measures and another unique feature of our data—updated borrower credit scores—to conduct “stress tests”: projecting leverage and defaults under various adverse house price scenarios. We find that while the riskiness of the household sector has declined significantly since 2012, it remains vulnerable to very severe declines in house prices.
    Keywords: mortgages; leverage; stress testing
    JEL: D14 E27 G21
    Date: 2016–08–01
  3. By: Johannes Stroebel (New York University)
    Abstract: We document that the house price experience within individuals' social networks affect their housing market expectations, and through this channel have large effects on individual and aggregate housing market outcomes
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Hafeez, Fatima; Haider, Adnan; Zafar, Naeem uz
    Abstract: Learning outcomes refer to the performance of the students in academic tests pertaining to the respective grade level. In Pakistan, survey evidences from Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) show a significant dispersion in learning outcomes of public schools as compared with private sector counterpart. The perceived results of learning outcomes in private schools very clear but less evidence is found for educational outcome of schools run under public-private partnership programs. This becomes especially relevant when status of curricular, co-curricular, and extra-curricular activities is compared between public school, private schools, and schools run under public private partnership. In recent literature, it is found that schools taken up by public-private partnership have been providing a better learning environment - Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Development, Administrative changes, Academic Innovation and Planning, Teacher Reform and Student Affairs - is perceived to have a positive impact on learning outcomes. It is to investigate and document that the investments in these areas are justifiable. To promote this fact, we conduct a quasi-experiment to examine the profiles of students in a public-private partnership school at Karachi (running under Zindagi Trust program) and a public school (as counterfactual) in the same neighbourhood. We also recorded the household and socioeconomic characteristics to create a good set of control variables. The propensity-score results show that public-private school is performing better than that of comparison group in attaining learning outcomes thus showing positive effects of PPP. Finally, the study probed into household and parental covariates of student's educational outcomes to enhance internal validity of results.
    Keywords: educational learning outcomes; public-private partnership; quasi-experiment
    JEL: C21 I21 L32
    Date: 2015–12–05
  5. By: Peters, Jan Cornelius
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence that individual labor productivity significantly depends on the size of the local labor market in which a worker previously acquired work experience. The analysis uses German micro data from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) on transitions to employment within the period 2005 to 2011 and individual employment biographies from 1975 onwards. Analyzing the wages associated with the newly established employment relationships, suggests that dynamic agglomeration economies in general, and learning externalities in particular, play an important role in explaining individual labor productivity. Workers receive a significantly higher wage after acquiring experience in urban than in non-urban labor markets. Doubling local employment in all labor markets where experience was acquired, increases the productivity of a worker with two years of work experience by more than 0.7 percent. After 10 years of experience the corresponding gain amounts to about three percent, after 30 years to about four to five percent. A key factor seems to be an above average share of high-skilled labor within large urban labor markets which is supposed to enhance local learning opportunities.
    Keywords: Agglomeration economies,Human capital externalities,Learning,Urban wage growth premium,Transition to employment
    JEL: R10 R23 J31
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM), School of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia); Yusuf Sofyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM), School of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia)
    Abstract: As the biggest archipelago nation, Indonesia considers port infrastructure one of the most important infrastructures in bolstering the regional economic development. In this paper, we study the impacts of access to the existing port infrastructure on regional development, i.e. income per capita, productivity, and poverty at district level in Indonesia. While other similar studies use the size of seaport, we argue that the access may be much more important. Additionally, using access variable accommodates spillover effect of the seaport for landlocked district. We define access to the nearest port as the shortest distance of the respective district to the nearest port. Our estimation results show that proximity to the main ports provides positive effect on GDP per capita, labor productivity, poverty rate, and poverty rate. We also find the importance of ports may vary between Java and non-Java regions.Length: 14 pages
    Keywords: seaport status, distance, regional economic development, seaport access, Indonesia
    Date: 2016–05
  7. By: Yang Hu (University of Waikato); Les Oxley (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: It has been argued that house prices may exhibit a period of bubbles and that they may also be either a cause or an effect of, for example, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this paper, we test econometrically whether house price bubbles have historical precedents and also whether contagion from other financial crises are mirrored in these housing markets. We apply the generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test based procedure of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a) to test for the evidence of exuberance or bubbles in historical housing price indices for the Herengracht index of Amsterdam (1649-2010), Norway (1819-2014) and Paris (1650-2012) based upon the right-tailed unit root null hypothesis with or without an intercept. We find, firstly, there is little evidence of exuberance in the real Herengracht index or of bubbles in the house price-rent ratio for Amsterdam. Secondly, our empirical results provide evidence of exuberance in Norwegian house prices where our identified episodes coincide with the major financial crisis in Norwegian history. Thirdly, no significant evidence of exuberance is found in the historical house price series of Paris under most model specifications.
    Keywords: bubbles; generalized sup ADF test; exuberance; house prices; herengracht index; Amsterdam; Norway; Paris
    JEL: G01 N20 N90 R30
    Date: 2016–08–15
  8. By: Annie Tubadji (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy); Enrico Santarelli (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy); Roberto Patuelli (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)
    Abstract: Intention toward any occupational choice can be widely categorized as a rational choice process combined with a subjective attitude function. There is extensive literature dealing with the formation of intention toward entrepreneurship in adolescents, in particular as a result of either parental (vertical) transmission of social capital or network effects from peers or neighbours (the latter two being two different levels of horizontal transmission varying in proximity in terms of bonding and bridging). We contribute to this literature by considering the joint effect of all these three levels simultaneously, in order to avoid an underspecification of the model due to omission of important cultural factors. We hypothesize that such three levels identify a mechanism where the individual perception of their importance interacts with their objective characteristics. With data for second-year high-school students, and employing empirical triangulation through Logit and 3SLS methods, we find evidence for a strong parental effect and of secondary peer effects on student intention. We also detect clear endogenous effects from the neighbourhood and the overall cultural context. Moreover, entrepreneurship is confirmed to be perceived, even by students, as a buffer for unemployment and social mobility.
    Date: 2016–08
  9. By: Wang, Xu; Zhang, Xiaobo; Xie, Zhuan; Huang, Yiping
    Abstract: Although both infrastructure and innovation play an important role in fostering a country’s economic growth, discussion in the literature about how the two are connected is limited. This paper examines the impact of road density on firm innovation in China using a matched patent database at the firm level and road information at the city level. Regional variation in the difficulty of constructing roads is used as an instrumental variable to address the potential endogeneity problem of the road variable. The empirical results show that a 10 percent improvement in road density increases the average number of approved patents per firm by 0.71 percent. Road development spurs innovation by enlarging market size and facilitating knowledge spillover.
    Keywords: CHINA, EAST ASIA, ASIA, infrastructure, innovation, transportation, technology transfer, knowledge diffusion, O31 Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes, R11 Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes, R40 Transportation Economics: General,
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Anya Samek; Heather Royer; Manuela Angelucci; Silvia Prina
    Abstract: How do peers influence the impact of incentives? Despite much work on incentives, little is known about the spillover effects of incentives. We investigate two mechanisms by which these effects can occur: through peers' actions and peers' incentives. In a field experiment on snack choice (grapes versus cookies), we randomize who receives incentives, the fraction of peers incentivized, and whether or not it can be observed that peers' choices are incentivized among over 1,500 children in the school lunchroom. Incentives increase the likelihood of initially choosing grapes. However, peer spillover effects can be large enough to undo these positive effects.
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Asheim, Bjørn (University of Stavanger); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Trippl, Michaela (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This book chapter provides conceptual and empirical foundations for smart specialisation, a policy approach of far-reaching importance in the European context. We interpret the very notion as “diversified” specialisation into areas of existing or potential competitive advantage, which differentiates a region/nation from others. “Smart” relates to the identification of these areas through a process of entrepreneurial discovery, in which all actors are mobilized to be able to discover domains for securing existing and future competitiveness. Competitive advantage through smart specialization can be promoted in all types of industries but based on the industry specific modes of innovation and knowledge bases, which is illustrated through case studies in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. Depending on the preconditions, we find that variegated strategies of smart specialisation are pursued, including building the absorptive capacity of DUI based firms by increasing their research based competence (introducing analytical knowledge), combining unrelated knowledge bases to move into new related and unrelated industries, combining related knowledge bases to move into unrelated industries, and moving into high-value added niches by introducing symbolic knowledge in traditional sectors.
    Keywords: Smart specialisation; policy; innovation; economic diversification; entrepreneurial discovery; knowledge bases; new path development; competitive advantage; regions
    JEL: O18 O30 O38 P48 R10 R58
    Date: 2016–08–12
  12. By: Will S. Dobbie; Roland G. Fryer, Jr
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of charter schools on early-life labor market outcomes using administrative data from Texas. We find that, at the mean, charter schools have no impact on test scores and a negative impact on earnings. No Excuses charter schools increase test scores and four-year college enrollment, but have a small and statistically insignificant impact on earnings, while other types of charter schools decrease test scores, four-year college enrollment, and earnings. Moving to school-level estimates, we find that charter schools that decrease test scores also tend to decrease earnings, while charter schools that increase test scores have no discernible impact on earnings. In contrast, high school graduation effects are predictive of earnings effects throughout the distribution of school quality. The paper concludes with a speculative discussion of what might explain our set of facts.
    JEL: I20 I26
    Date: 2016–08
  13. By: Kreickemeier, Udo; Wrona, Jens
    Abstract: We develop a model to explain two-way migration of high-skilled individuals between countries that are similar in their economic characteristics. High-skilled migration results from the combination of workers whose abilities are private knowledge, and a production technology that gives incentives to firms for hiring workers of similar ability. In the presence of migration cost, high-skilled workers self-select into the group of migrants. The laissez-faire equilibrium features too much migration, explained by a negative migration externality. We also show that for sufficiently low levels of migration cost the optimal level of migration, while smaller than in the laissez-faire equilibrium, is strictly positive. Finally, we extend our model into different directions to capture stylized facts in the data and show that our baseline results also hold in these more complex modelling environments.
    Keywords: International Migration,Skilled Workers,Positive Assortative Matching
    JEL: D82 F22
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Darleen Opfer
    Abstract: A key lever for improving teaching is provision of effective professional development. This paper uses TALIS 2013 data to consider personal and school-level factors associated with teacher participation in effective professional development and reports of impact on instruction. Results of the analyses indicate that levels of teacher co-operation and instructionally-focused leadership in schools are associated with higher levels of effective professional development participation and reported instructional impact. Systems also vary significantly on the percentage of teachers in schools with supportive conditions and this is associated with differences in teacher participation in professional development types and reported instructional impact. Offrir des possibilités de formation continue constitue assurément un levier efficace pour améliorer la qualité de l’enseignement. Ce document utilise les données issues de l’enquête TALIS 2013 pour étudier les facteurs, tant au niveau des individus qu’au niveau des établissements scolaires, qui interviennent dans la participation des enseignants à des programmes de formation continue. Il rend compte également de l’effet de ces programmes sur l’enseignement. Les résultats de cette étude indiquent que la coopération entre enseignants et un leadership des chefs d’établissement centré sur l’instruction sont associés à une plus grande participation des enseignants à des programmes de formation continue et à de plus grandes retombées pour l’enseignement. Le pourcentage d’enseignants qui bénéficient de conditions favorables dans leur environnement de travail varie de manière significative d’un système d’éducation à l’autre. Cette réalité est associée à des niveaux différents de participation à des programmes de formation continue et à des effets différents sur l’enseignement.
    Keywords: school leadership, Teacher professional development, teacher co-operation, TALIS 2013
    Date: 2016–08–10
  15. By: Brenzel, Hanna (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Laible, Marie-Christine (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "We investigate whether the Big Five Personality Dimensions contribute to explaining gender and migrant wage gaps by using a linked employer-employee dataset. We expand the scarce literature concerning personality traits and gender wage gaps in Germany and we provide first evidence for the relationship between the Big Five and the migrant wage gap. Our results reveal that the genders differ in their average personality traits, as do migrants and natives. Further, we find significant associations between the Big Five and wages. The magnitude of this relationship varies across the gender and the migratory status. The results of Oaxaca-Blinder wage decompositions suggest that the Big Five significantly contribute to explaining gender and migrant wage gaps." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    JEL: J15 J16 J24 J31
    Date: 2016–08–15
  16. By: Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner (Department of Economics at the University of Leicester); Jesse Matheson (Department of Economics at the University of Leicester)
    Abstract: Little is known about the causal impact of education opportunities on the decision of young women to have children. Expanding education opportunities may lead to a greater number of young women putting off childbearing until after their teenage years. In this study we look at the effect of one of the largest secondary school expansions on record, providing quasi-experimental evidence to uncover the causal impact of education opportunity on teenage fertility. After achieving near universal enrolment in primary education in the mid- 1990s, Brazil went through an ambitious program of expanding secondary schooling. Between 1996 and 2009 more than 10,269 secondary schools were introduced, increasing the average enrolment rate for teens age 15 to 19 from 21% to 48%. We combine data from the Brazilian School Census, and Brazilian Vital Statistics data capturing 45 million live births by age of mother into an extraordinarily rich data set. Plausibly exogenous variation in the introduction of schools across municipalities over time is used to estimate the effect of education opportunity on teenage births. We find a significant negative effect of secondary school availability on teenage pregnancy. Our results suggest that the addition of one school at age 15 will reduce average cumulative births by 19 by, on average, 4.4 births or 4.6% relative to the mean. These results suggest that the expansion in secondary schools across Brazil can account for roughly 27% of the large decline in teenage childbearing observed between 1997 and 2009 in Brazil.
    Keywords: Secondary education, teenage pregnancy, Brazil
    JEL: I20 I26 J13
    Date: 2016–08
  17. By: Age Mariussen (University of Vaasa); Ruslan Rakhmatullin (European Commission - JRC); Lina Stanionyte (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: S3 begins within a region/country by exploiting place-based expertise and industrial skills within the regional innovation eco-system. The paper refers to emerging research which indicates that some regions suffer from insufficient innovation eco-system complexity, followed by sub-optimal innovation performances and path lock-in. This indicates that regional innovation eco-systems could be further strengthened through transnational learning and collaboration. Several major forms of collaboration are identified. The paper suggests that macro-regional and trans-European smart specialisation strategies could be based on multi-level approaches to experimentally extend and strengthen regional innovation eco-systems. In order to achieve robust and long-lasting outcomes, these experiments could apply some existing S3 tools. Here, an important issue is the transition from temporary programmes, projects and networks to new institutional frameworks for co-evolution and collaboration between smart specialised regions. The next important step is to exploit the European diversity identified through regional RIS3 strategies. The long-term challenge is the strengthening of emergent European and macro-regional systems of innovation, and thus supporting the regions.
    Keywords: policy analysis; R & D; research; collaboration; policy; innovation; ecosystem
    Date: 2016–08
  18. By: Richard Arnott (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Anatolii Kokoza (Department of Economics, University of Arizona); Mehdi Naji (Department of Money and Foreign Currencies, Money and Banking Research Institute)
    Abstract: For a quarter century, a top priority in transportation economic theory has been to develop models of rush-hour traffic dynamics that incorporate hypercongestion – situations of heavy congestion where throughput decreases as traffic density increases. Unfortunately, even the simplest models along these lines appear to be analytically intractable, and none of the models that have made approximations in order to achieve tractability has gained widespread acceptance. This paper takes a different tack focusing on a special case – the isotropic model with identical commuters and the α − β − γ cost function – for which an analytical solution is possible. A complete, closed-form solution is presented for the no-toll equilibrium in which departures and arrivals occur in masses, and the solution for the social optimum is fully characterized.
    Keywords: equilibrium, rush hour, traffic congestion
    JEL: L91 R41
    Date: 2016–08
  19. By: Paul Carrillo; Andrea López; Arun Malik
    Abstract: Driving restriction programs have been implemented in many cities around the world to alleviate pollution and congestion problems. Enforcement of such programs is costly and can potentially displace policing resources used for crime prevention and crime detection. Hence, driving restrictions may increase crime. To test this hypothesis, this paper exploits both temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of Quito, Ecuador's Pico y Placa program and evaluates its effect on crime. Both difference-in-difference and spatial regression discontinuity estimates provide credible evidence that driving restrictions can increase crime rates.
    Keywords: Crime Rate, Criminal Activities, Pollution prevention, Public transport, Road Traffic Control, Crime Prevention, Citizen security, Police Officers, policing resources, criminal activity, pollution prevention, air pollution
    JEL: C20 Q52 R28 R48
    Date: 2016–07
  20. By: Belfield, Chris (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Boneva, Teodora (University College London); Rauh, Christopher (University of Cambridge); Shaw, Jonathan (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London)
    Abstract: We study students' motives for educational attainment in a unique survey of 885 secondary school students in the UK. As expected, students who perceive the monetary returns to education to be higher are more likely to intend to continue in full-time education. However, the main driver is the perceived consumption value, which alone explains around half of the variation of the intention to pursue higher education. Moreover, the perceived consumption value can account for a substantial part of both the socio-economic gap and the gender gap in intentions to continue in full-time education.
    Keywords: education, perceived returns, consumption value of education, beliefs, higher education, UK, gender gap, income gradient
    JEL: I24 I26 J13 J24 J62
    Date: 2016–08
  21. By: Marchand, Joseph (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Weber, Jeremy (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: A primary way that natural resources affect a locality is through the demand for labor, with greater extraction requiring more workers. Shifts in labor demand can be measured through changes in employment and earnings, the main labor market outcomes, or through changes in the population and income, more generally. These changes may spillover to the non-resource economy, and their effects may be felt unequally across the population, thereby altering the distribution of income and the poverty rate. Educational attainment might also be influenced, as people choose between additional schooling and work. We synthesize the literature on the local labor market effects of natural resources by organizing the existing studies according to their measurement of resources and the outcomes that they consider. This synthesis provides an accessible guide to a literature that has boomed in recent years. It also identifies promising avenues for future research and lays a foundation to further generalize these results through an eventual meta-analysis.
    Keywords: local labor markets; natural resources; resource booms
    JEL: J20 J40 Q23 Q33 R23
    Date: 2016–08–05
  22. By: Ignacio Munyo (Universidad de Montevideo); Martín Rossi (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres)
    Abstract: We exploit detailed information on location and exact date of installation of police-monitored surveillance cameras coupled with daily data at the street-segment level on all reported crimes in the city of Montevideo, Uruguay, to study the impact of police monitoring on crime. The introduction of police-monitored surveillance cameras reduces crime by 28 percent in monitored areas relative to un-monitored areas of the city. Results are robust to alternative definitions of the control group. A series of placebo experiments reassure that the findings have a causal interpretation. We find evidence that the reduction in crime in police monitored areas of the city is compensated by an increase in crime in other areas of the city.
    Keywords: monitoring cameras, theft, robbery, domestic violence
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2016–08
  23. By: Mihály Tamás Bors (Universitat Ramon Llull)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of private credit contractions on labor market performance. Impulse responses for total, youth, and long-term unemployment are estimated using local projections for a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1980-2013. The empirical findings suggest that a decline in private credit can generate sizable and statistically significant increases in all three unemployment measures. On average, credit contractions in the sample increase total unemployment rates by nearly 1 percentage point at the peak. This effect is even stronger for youth unemployment. The persistent impact on long-term unemployment emphasizes the sluggish recovery of labor markets following a credit downturn. The results also reveal that increases in joblessness depend heavily on the scale of the build-up in financial leverage prior to the onset of a contraction. Specifically, excessive credit booms tend to be followed by a significantly larger rise in unemployment in the subsequent bust phase. Moreover, credit contractions associated with rigid labor market institutions lead to disproportionately greater increases in unemployment. These findings underline the important relationship between disruptions in the credit market and unemployment fluctuations.
    Keywords: financial leverage, private credit, labor market, unemployment, local projections
    JEL: E24 E44 G10 J01
    Date: 2016–08
  24. By: Cilliers, Jacobus (Georgetown University); Kasirye, Ibrahim (Economic Policy Research Centre); Leaver, Clare (University of Oxford); Serneels, Pieter (University of East Anglia); Zeitlin, Andrew (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: Public sector organizations often rely on reports by local monitors that are costly to verify and that serve twin objectives: to incentivize agent performance, and to provide information for planning purposes. Received wisdom has it that pay for locally monitored performance (P4LMP) will result in collusion and undermine both objectives. But simple Coasian logic suggests the reverse: P4LMP puts transferable money on the table and may enable interested parties to bargain to a more efficient outcome. This paper develops a theoretical model that shows why, and for which parameters, the welfare-enhancing Coasian scenario exists. Focusing on education, we model how the preferences of a teacher (agent) and head-teacher (local monitor) affect actual and reported teacher attendance, and how these equilibrium outcomes depend on the financial stakes attached to reports. To capture the value of information, we also consider the welfare of a bureaucracy that makes a costly policy mistake when holding the wrong belief about teacher performance. We test the model and estimate the predicted effects using data from a field experiment in Ugandan primary schools, randomly varying whether head teachers' reports of teacher attendance are tied to bonus payments or not. Consistent with Coasian logic, P4LMP increased actual and reported teacher attendance (by 9 and 15 percentage points respectively) and reduced policy mistakes (by 7 percentage points) relative to unincentivized local monitoring. We use these experimental impacts to undertake a detailed cost-benefit analysis and conclude, even under conservative assumptions, that welfare improved when paying for locally monitored performance.
    Keywords: public sector, monitoring, performance pay
    JEL: D61 H52 I25 I26
    Date: 2016–08
  25. By: Samira Barzin; Sabine D'Costa; Daniel Graham
    Abstract: We construct a pseudo-panel of Colombian firms based on the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey to study the effects of transportation infrastructure on firm performance in a developing country. Our findings report an output elasticity with respect to road infrastructure of 0.132 to 0.146 across the specifications, which confirms our initial hypothesis that roads are an important driver for private sector output growth. The fact that our results are larger than those reported in the literature for developed countries could suggest that the role of transportation infrastructure is relatively more important for the economy of developing countries. Furthermore, our findings reveal that there exists a time lag with which firms’ productions react to changes in the road stock. We interpret these findings as firms requiring time to adjust their production processes to road improvements of at least a year. We furthermore identify that the effect of road infrastructure is particularly large for those manufacturing industries that are capital-intensive and produce heavy goods. Further robustness tests reveal that our results are not driven by the possibility of agglomeration economies or the chosen measurement of transportation infrastructure. We additionally provide Monte Carlo simulations to provide support for the validity of pseudo-panels in the context of firm-level data.
    Keywords: Infrastructure; Roads; Economic Development; Pseudo-Panels; Monte Carlo Simulations; Latin America; Colombia
    JEL: O18 O14 R42 C15
    Date: 2016–08
  26. By: Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán (Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank); Luis F. López-Calva (Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank); Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Daniel Valderrama (Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank)
    Abstract: Since the early 2000s, after a long period of wide and persistent gaps, Latin America has experienced a steady decline in income inequality. This paper presents evidence of a trend reversal in labor income inequality, which is considered the main factor behind such a decline in income inequality across the region. Our analysis shows that, while labor income inequality increased during the 1990s, with heterogeneous experiences across countries, it fell in a synchronized way across countries beginning in the early 2000s. This systematic decline was supported by an expansion in real hourly earnings among the bottom of the wage distribution and, to a lesser extent, the middle part of the earnings distribution, thus reducing both upper and lower tail inequality. This trend reversal is explained by a lower dispersion of earnings among workers with observable different attributes and by a much less extensive dispersion of residual labor inequality. Regarding the earnings differentials among workers with observable different attributes, our analysis concludes that the decline in labor inequality in Latin America has been closely associated with a reduction in the college/primary education premium and in the urban-rural earnings gap, coupled with a steady drop in the high school/primary education premium, which accelerated markedly since the 2000s, as well as a reduction in the experience premium across all age-groups.
    Keywords: Inequality, Labor Incomes, Education Premium, Experience Premium, Latin America.
    JEL: D63 E24 J21 J31 O54
    Date: 2016–08
  27. By: Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
    Abstract: Housing is part of the United Nations 11th Sustainable Development Goal, which is to “make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”. One of the most important targets of such a goal is to “ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums”. Since 2007, the world has faced rising inequality, insecurity and climate change impact. According to UN Habitat, 54% of the world´s population currently live in cities. By 2050, this number should reach 60%. A new vision is required to plan and finance housing with the improvement of living conditions.
    Date: 2016–07
  28. By: Danne, Christian; McGuinness, Anne (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of receiving a loan modification and the factors explaining repayment after mortgage modification using a unique Irish dataset. Compared to previous studies, our dataset allows us to observe borrower and loan characteristics at the time the borrower experiences payment difficulties and to directly observe the outcome of the renegotiation process. The results show that current borrower characteristics rather than loan characteristics matter for receiving a permanent modification and making full payment after modification. A higher mortgage repayment to income ratio, higher household leverage, and higher household expenditure reduce the probability of receiving a permanent modification and the probability of full payment after modification. In addition, both unemployment and divorce prior to engaging in mortgage renegotiations, reduce the probability of receiving a permanent modification and the payment performance after modification. The change in borrowers mortgage repayment and thus their subsequent mortgage affordability is the key driver of a successful modification, irrespective of the modification type.
    Keywords: Mortgage, modification, arrears, banking
    JEL: D14 G01 G21 R31
    Date: 2016–06
  29. By: Keenan, Enda (Central Bank of Ireland); Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland); McCarthy, Yvonne (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Toole, Conor (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Using loan-by-loan information collected by the Central Bank of Ireland to monitor compliance with the loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) macroprudential Regulations, this Economic Letter provides an overview of residential mortgage lending that took place in Ireland in 2015. We caution that these data cover a period in which the banking sector was transitioning to the new regulatory arrangement and drawing inference from one snapshot of data may be premature. A total of e4.6bn of mortgage loans was covered by these data in 2015, with 56 per cent in-scope of the measures. The average property price for first-time buyers in-scope of the measures was e234,599 at an average LTV of 78.7 per cent. For secondand subsequent borrowers, the average property price was e374,644 with an average LTV of 65.8 per cent. Comparing in-scope and out-of-scope lending for 2015, we find that average LTVs and LTIs for principal dwelling house (PDH) lending were marginally lower in-scope. Under the Irish Regulations, a proportion of lending is permitted at levels of LTV and LTI above the limits. A total of 13 per cent of in-scope PDH lending exceeded the LTV cap and 17 per cent of in-scope PDH lending exceeded the LTI cap. We observe differences in the characteristics of borrowers with and without an allowance. Notably, differences were evident across income, borrower age, marital status and region.
    Date: 2016–07
  30. By: Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Schönberg, Uta (University College London); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: By exploiting a commuting policy that led to a sharp and unexpected inflow of Czech workers to areas along the German-Czech border, we examine the impact of an exogenous immigration-induced labor supply shock on local wages and employment of natives. On average, the supply shock leads to a moderate decline in local native wages and a sharp decline in local native employment. These average effects mask considerable heterogeneity across groups: while younger natives experience larger wage effects, employment responses are particularly pronounced for older natives. This pattern is inconsistent with standard models of immigration but can be accounted for by a model that allows for a larger labor supply elasticity or a higher degree of wage rigidity for older than for young workers. We further show that the employment response is almost entirely driven by diminished inflows of natives into work rather than outflows into other areas or non-employment, suggesting that "outsiders" shield "insiders" from the increased competition.
    Keywords: immigration, wage effects, labor supply elasticity, internal migration
    JEL: J21 J22 J61 R23
    Date: 2016–08
  31. By: Paetzold, Jörg (University of Salzburg); Winner, Hannes (University of Salzburg)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence of evasion in the context of a widely used commuter tax allowance, and explores evasion spillovers as a determinant of the individual compliance decision. For this purpose, we exploit discontinuities in the commuter allowance scheme and employ a research design resting on a large panel of individual tax returns. We find that around 30 percent of all allowance claims are overstated and, consistent with deliberate tax evasion, we observe sharp reactions of taxpayers to thresholds where the allowance discretely jumps to a higher amount. Further, we use variation in job changes to uncover spillover effects from the work environment on the individual compliance decision. These effects appear to be asymmetric: Job changers moving to companies with a higher fraction of cheaters increase their cheating. In contrast, movers to companies with a lower fraction of cheaters tend not to alter their reporting behavior. We provide suggestive evidence that the spillover has more to do with an information environment, but can ultimately not reject other behavioral explanations such as asymmetric persistence of norms.
    Keywords: Tax Evasion; Self-Reporting; Tax Deductions; Spillover Effects
    JEL: D83 H24 H26
    Date: 2016–08–04
  32. By: Rinaldo Evangelista (University of Camerino); Valentina Meliciani (University of LLUIS Carli); Antonio Vezzani (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: This study analyses the major patterns and trends in the spatial distribution of technological capacities in the EU area over the 1996-2011 period, adopting a regional perspective. More specifically, the study aims at: a) assessing the level of technological polarization in the EU area and its dynamics; b) highlighting major changes in the patterns of technological specialization of EU regions; c) identifying the technological trajectories that have been more effective, that is able to sustain long-term economic growth and facilitate catching-up processes of EU laggard regions.
    Keywords: technological specialization, technical change, regions, innovation
    Date: 2016–08
  33. By: Watanabe, Hiroki
    Abstract: This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the distribution of GDP at city level (henceforth referred to as gross metropolitan product, GMP) with the aim of bridging the gap betwen the literature on agglomeration economies and the city-size distribution. We show that 1) it shares the same characteristics to the city-size counterpart: They are both fat-tailed, and 2) a 1% increase in employment leads to a 1.117% (or 1.180% in theory) increase in GMP. Free mobility of household forces a city to operate at the size where scale economies are present, or else, the city cannot offset the reduced housing consumption and increased congestion due to crowding set off by agglomeration economies, and loses its population and GMP to elsewhere. We establish a production economy model to break down the interplay above and derive the equilibrium GMP distribution, which tests well with the US data on GMP.
    Keywords: Zipf’s Law, Gibrat’s Law, GDP by City, Production Economy
    JEL: D51 E2 R12
    Date: 2015–11–05
  34. By: Kelly, Robert (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Toole, Conor (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This research considers one approach as to how originating lending conditions on debtservice ratios and loan-to-value ratios affect future default risk in the “Buy-to-Let” market. Using a sample of mortgage loans for the UK, we estimate a “double trigger” default model, with originating equity and affordability terms. We find default increasing with originating loan-to-value (OLTV) and falling in original rent coverage (ORC). A non-linear cubic spline model is used to identify threshold effects in the relationship between OLTV, ORC and default, with loans of OLTV greater than 75 and ORC below 1.5 showing a large increase in default risk. These results provide empirical evidence for the non-linear nature of default in these origination terms and provides useful insights into for understanding OLTV and ORC limits in a macro prudential context. In addition, we investigate how multiple loan portfolios interact with these thresholds. While there is no impact on the main findings of 75 and 1.5, there is strong evidence to support tighter restrictions on loans for second and subsequent properties.
    Keywords: Macroprudential, Credit Risk, Mortgages, UK.
    JEL: E32 E51 F30 G21 G28
    Date: 2016–06
  35. By: Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Swinnen, Johan
    Abstract: Due to the rapid growth of cities in Africa, many more farmers are now living in rural hinterlands in relatively close proximity to cities where many provide food to urban residents. However, empirical evidence on how urbanization affects these farmers is scarce. To fill this gap, this paper explores the relationship between proximity to a city and the production behavior of rural staple crop producers. In particular, we analyze data from teff producing farmers in major producing areas around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. We find that farmers located closer to Addis Ababa face higher wages and land rental prices, and because they receive higher teff prices they have better incentives to intensify production. Moreover, we observe that modern input use, land and labor productivity, and profitability in teff production improve with urban proximity. This urban proximity has a strong and significant effect on these aspects of teff production, possibly related to the use of more formal factor markets, lower transaction costs in crop production and marketing, and better access to information. In contrast, we do not find a strong and positive relationship between rural population density increases and agricultural transformation – increased population density seems to lead to immiserizing effects in these settings. Our results show that urban proximity should be considered as an important determinant of the process of agricultural intensification and transformation in developing countries.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, intensification, urban areas, productivity, urban rural migration, agricultural transformation,
    Date: 2016
  36. By: Peters, Jan Cornelius
    Abstract: In Germany, as in many other European countries, there will be a shift in the workforce age structure in the next decades. The number of older workers will increase, and the number of younger and middle aged workers will decline. This paper provides evidence how the shift in the relative labor supply affects labor productivity, taking into account that differently aged workers are suggested to be imperfect substitutes. Using a cross sectional linked employer-employee data set from 2012, translog cost functions are estimated. To control for the skill level of the workers a nested production structure is applied. This allows to analyze age complementarities within groups of workers that have a comparable skill level. Based on the estimated parameters, pairwise elasticities of complementarity and factor price elasticities are computed. The results indicate that workers that belong to different age groups are complementary factors. But the degree of complementarity differs, depending on the age and the skill level of the workers. The complementarities especially arise between younger and middle aged workers. The highest degree of complementarity is observed between younger and middle aged high skilled labor. Simulating how the expected shift in the age structure affects labor productivity indicates that the productivity of younger and middle aged workers will increase. In contrast, the productivity of older workers will significantly decline caused by their increasing share in the workforce.
    Keywords: age complementarities,demographic change,labor-labor substitution,linked employer-employee,translog
    JEL: C31 D24 J11 J31
    Date: 2016
  37. By: Ding, Lei (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Hwang, Jackelyn (Princeton University)
    Abstract: There have been considerable debate and controversy about the effects of gentrification on neighborhoods and the people residing in them. This paper draws on a unique large-scale consumer credit database to examine the relationship between gentrification and the credit scores of residents in the City of Philadelphia from 2002 to 2014. We find that gentrification is positively associated with changes in residents’ credit scores on average for those who stay, and this relationship is stronger for residents in neighborhoods in the more advanced stages of gentrification. Gentrification is also positively associated with credit score changes for less advantaged residents (low credit score, older, or longer term residents, and those without mortgages) if they do not move, though the magnitude of this positive association is smaller than for their more advantaged counterparts. Nonetheless, moving from gentrifying neighborhoods is negatively associated with credit score changes for less advantaged residents, residents who move to lower-income neighborhoods, and residents who move to any other neighborhoods within the city (instead of outside the city) relative to those who stay. The results demonstrate how the association between gentrification and residents’ financial health is uneven, especially for less advantaged residents.
    Keywords: Gentrification; Credit scores; Residential mobility
    JEL: D14 J11 J6 R23
    Date: 2016–07–29
  38. By: Hirte, Georg; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
    Abstract: The transport and urban economics literature applies different labor supply approaches when studying economic or planning instruments. Some studies assume that working hours are endogenous while the number of workdays is given, whereas others model only decisions on workdays. Unfortunately, empirical evidence does hardly exist on account of missing data. Against this background, we provide an assessment of whether general effects of transport policies are robust against the modeling of leisure demand and labor supply. We introduce different labor supply approaches into a spatial general equilibrium model and discuss how they affect the welfare implication of congestion policies. We, then, perform simulations and find that in many cases the choice of labor supply modeling not only affects the magnitude of the policy impact but also its direction. While planning instruments are suggested to be quite robust to different labor supply approaches, the way of modeling labor supply may crucially affect the overall welfare implications of economic instruments such as congestion tolls. Based on these findings it becomes clear which labor supply approach is the most appropriate given specific conditions. Our study also emphasizes the need for better micro labor market data that also feature days of sickness, overtime work used to reduce workdays, the actual number of leave days, part-time work, days with telecommuting etc.
    Keywords: Public Economics,Tax Efficiency,Time Allocation,Labor Supply,Pigouvian,Tax,Environmental Economics,Urban Economics,Spatial Economics,Regional Welfare,Land-Use,Zoning,CGE,Spatial Economics,Spatial Modeling,Transportation
    JEL: H2 H3 J22 Q5 R1 R4 R5
    Date: 2015
  39. By: Antonio N. Bojanic (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic freedom and political and civil liberties in the Americas. Regarding the latter and with the full sample of countries, the findings suggest that decentralization initially worsens but eventually improves political and civil liberties, underlining the importance of fiscal decentralization as a driver for achieving basic liberties. When Canada and the US are excluded, the evidence shows that decentralization may eventually be a detriment for political and civil liberties. With respect to the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic freedom, decentralization first hinders but eventually increases freedom when all countries are included, emphasizing the point that a decentralization regime takes time to develop and function properly. When Canada and the US are excluded, decentralization initially increases but ultimately hampers freedom, demonstrating that if the decentralization regime does not address important matters like fiscal discipline, wealth inequality, and political accountability, economic freedom – like political and civil liberties – will also deteriorate.
    Keywords: Fiscal decentralization, economic freedom, political and civil liberties.
    JEL: E62 H70 O23 P52
    Date: 2016–08
  40. By: Boutin, Delphine (CERDI, University of Auvergne)
    Abstract: Does experiencing internal migration hasten the access to the labour market? This paper provides an answer by studying the gap in transition length to a first job between young people in Uganda that have ever migrated inside the country and never-migrants of the same age category. To take into the account the specific context of Uganda (some enters at a very young age, other before the end of school and other have never attended school), different starting points of transition are considered: from the date of birth, from the minimum legal age (14 years old) and from the date of school exit. Extended proportional hazards models shows that transition duration is shorter for migrants than for non-migrants (except for the school-to-work transition), although effects vary considerably according to the area of origin and destination and the reasons for migration. Decomposition in durations' gap reveals the importance of unobservable factors, especially the role of area of origin, gender, age cohort and access to education.
    Keywords: internal migration, school-to-work transition, job search, youth employment
    JEL: J15 J61 J64
    Date: 2016–08
  41. By: Cortes, Guido Matias (University of Manchester); Salvatori, Andrea (ISER, University of Essex)
    Abstract: This paper offers the first study of job polarization in Great Britain using workplace level data. We document widespread and increasing occupational specialization within establishments, along with substantial heterogeneity in specialization within industries. Changes in the specialization profiles of workplaces account for most of the changes in the aggregate occupational shares between 1998 and 2011. The sharp rise in the fraction of workplaces specializing in non-routine tasks is associated with a large increase in the concentration of non-routine workers in workplaces that specialize in such occupations. We find no evidence of a decline in routine employment among establishments that report the adoption of new technologies, as would be expected from the standard routine-biased technological change hypothesis. Instead, we uncover new evidence that suggests that the increase in non-routine cognitive workplaces is linked to the growth in outsourcing of cognitive tasks.
    Keywords: job polarization, technology, firm-level data, outsourcing
    JEL: J21 J23
    Date: 2016–08
  42. By: Rus'an Nasrudin (PhD Scholar, Arndt-Cordent Department of Economics, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: Reducing imbalances of development progress across regions is one of important policy agenda Indonesia. This paper examines the impact of policy that assign lagging-region status namely status daerah tertinggal (DT) on poverty rate and poverty gap among districts in Indonesia in the two period of SBY presidency. The panel data fixed effect combined with propensity score matching is used to tackle the selection bias due to the nature of the policy, unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias. The results show that the lagging-region status that was aimed to mainstream central and district’s budget toward lagging regions statistically significant reduces poverty rate and poverty gap in the period. The DT status, on average is associated with 0.75 percentage point of reduction in the poverty rate and 7% reduction in the poverty gap index.
    JEL: I32 P48
    Date: 2016–06
  43. By: Montes-Solla, Paulino; Faiña Medín, J. Andres; Lopez-Rodriguez, Jesus
    Abstract: This paper analyses the different factors that explain the pattern of economic growth in Spain along the 1989-2010 period. The results of our analysis provide strong evidence of stagnation in productivity throughout most of the period under study. The large investments and the strong growth in capital stocks were practically absorbed by an intense process of job creation. As a consequence, the capital/labour ratio and labour productivity levels had a very low growth, whereas total factor productivity (TFP) decreased over the period of analysis. Therefore unlike other European countries, Spain did not experience a phenomenon of capital deepening with an increase in productivity. The intense GDP pc growth in Spain was of a rather "extensive" type, mainly based on a capital widening process.
    Keywords: Regional development, Infrastructures, Capital widening, Productivity stagnation, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: R10 R11 R12 R13 R14
    Date: 2015–11–03
  44. By: Arne Neukirch (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany); Thomas Wein (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)
    Abstract: Do we have effective competition between the gasoline's big five oligopolists (Aral, Shell, Esso, Total and Jet) and fringe gasoline stations? Using 2014 Market Transparency price data from 66 cities with populations between 60,000 and 100,000, we analyze which brands lead price increases, the first average price mark-up in the evening, and the trend on price increases until midnight. Furthermore, we measure the response time it takes for competitors to react to these price increases, and how much prices change from the beginning to the end of a day. By watching local activities of the big brands, it is possible to measure how smaller businesses, such as Jet or independent retailers, react to Aral's and Shell's price changes. Multivariate estimations allows to control for gasoline type (regular or diesel), school holidays, weekends, weekdays, location -such as East or West Germany-, wholesale and starting prices. Descriptive results show the typical patterns. Aral (or Shell) will start a price increase round, and then Shell (or Aral) will more or less immediately follow. Total, Esso and Non-Oligopolists react within one or two hours. Jet behaves more as an "outsider" with later reaction times and lower price mark-ups. Multivariate estimation indicates that the single cause "price change by competitors" is less important and nearly irrelevant for Jet.
    Keywords: Market power, collusive behavior, gasoline market
    JEL: L13 L41 L81
    Date: 2016–06
  45. By: Raymond Fisman; Daniel Paravisini; Vikrant Vig
    Abstract: We present evidence that cultural proximity (shared codes, beliefs, ethnicity) between lenders and borrowers increases the quantity of credit and reduces default. We identify in-group lending using dyadic data on religion and caste for officers and borrowers from an Indian bank, and a rotation policy that induces exogenous matching between them. Having an in-group officer increases credit access and loan size dispersion, reduces collateral requirements, and induces better repayment even after the in-group officer leaves. We consider a range of explanations and suggest that the findings are most easily explained by cultural proximity serving to mitigate information frictions in lending.
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2016
  46. By: Fackler, Daniel; Rippe, Lisa
    Abstract: Using German survey data, we investigate the relationship between involuntary job loss and regional mobility. Our results show that job loss has a strong positive effect on the propensity to relocate. We also analyze whether the high and persistent earnings losses of displaced workers can in part be explained by limited regional mobility. Our findings do not support this conjecture as we find substantial long lasting earnings losses for both movers and stayers. In the short run, movers even face slightly higher losses, but the differences between the two groups of displaced workers are never statistically significant. This challenges whether migration is a beneficial strategy in case of involuntary job loss.
    Keywords: job displacement,plant closure,regional mobility,earnings,SOEP
    JEL: J61 J63
    Date: 2016

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