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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Alexander N. Bogin (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William D. Larson (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | We construct the first large-scale panel of annual house price indices for cities, counties, 3-digit ZIP codes, and 5-digit ZIP codes in the United States from 1975 through 2015 using source data with nearly 100 million transactions. Appreciation rates decrease with distance from the central business district (CBD) in large cities, suggesting an overall increase in the desirability of housing units in CBD locations and a general steepening of the house price gradient. Real house prices are more likely to be non-stationary near the CBD than in the suburbs, a finding consistent with a higher elasticity of housing supply near the edge of the city. Sustained real price increases and high price volatility near the centers of large cities suggest a lower supply elasticity in these locations. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:16-01&r=ure |
| By: | Brinkman, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | Congestion costs in urban areas are significant and clearly represent a negative externality. Nonetheless, economists also recognize the production advantages of urban density in the form of positive agglomeration externalities. The long-run equilibrium outcomes in economies with multiple correlated but o setting externalities have yet to be fully explored in the literature. Therefore, I develop a spatial equilibrium model of urban structure that includes both congestion costs and agglomeration externalities. I then estimate the structural parameters of the model using a computational algorithm to match the spatial distribution of employment, population, land use, land rents, and commute times in the data. Policy simulations based on the estimates suggest that congestion pricing may have ambiguous consequences for economic welfare. |
| Keywords: | Congestion; Agglomeration; Externalities; Spatial Equilibrium; Urban Structure; Estimation |
| JEL: | C51 D62 R13 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:16-13&r=ure |
| By: | Franklin, Joel (KTH); Eliasson , Jonas (KTH); Börjesson, Maria (KTH); Brundell-Freij, Karin (WSP); Johansson, Fredrik (WSP); Jiang, Sida (WSP); Ramjerdi, Farideh (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI); Skollerud, Kåre (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI); Denstadli, Jon Martin (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU); Uteng, Tanu Priya (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI) |
| Abstract: | Roadway tolls are seeing increasing use in metropolitan areas worldwide, motivated first by increasing reliance on user fees to finance maintenance and expansion of transport infrastructure, and second by a strategy of reducing congestion externalities by discouraging car use in peak periods. In Scandinavia in particular, roadway tolls have been tested and permanently implemented in more cities than in any other region around the world. Despite the large body of evidence directly after these implementations, there remain several issues related to the effects of roadway tolls that are unexplored, not only in the Scandinavian cases but also abroad. This report documents the results of a research project intended to help fill these gaps. Our main contributions to the literature are in three broad areas: 1) travel adaptations patterns and their underlying explanations; 2) effects of tolling on location patterns and on telecommuting; and 3) explanations for the varying levels of acceptability of tolling schemes across time and in different locations. |
| Keywords: | Tolls; Road pricing; Equity; Adaptation; Acceptance; Attitudes |
| JEL: | D63 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_014&r=ure |
| By: | Tommaso Oliviero (CSEF, Università di Napoli Federico II); Agnese Sacchi (Universitas Mercatorum (Italy) and GEN (Spain).); Annalisa Scognamiglio (CSEF, Università di Napoli); Alberto Zazzaro (University of Naples Federico II (Italy), Polytechnic University of Marche (Italy), MoFiR (Italy) and CSEF (Italy).) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the impact of changes in immovable property taxation on the growth rate of house prices by analyzing a panel of 34 OECD countries over the period 1970-2014. We show that there is a negative relationship, robust to the inclusion of other cyclical determinants of house prices, country and year fixed effects. Furthermore, we do not find evidence of a stabilizing role of immovable property taxes on the variability of house prices: boom-bust cycles in housing markets are, in fact, not correlated with the levels of such a tax. |
| Keywords: | House prices, Immovable property tax. |
| JEL: | E62 H20 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:444&r=ure |
| By: | Alexander N. Bogin (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Stephen D. Bruestle (Penn State Erie); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | We develop a theoretically-based statistical technique to identify a conservative lower bound for house prices. Leveraging a model based upon consumer and investor incentives, we are able to explain the depth of housing market downturns at both the national and state level over a variety of market environments. This approach performs well in several historical back tests and has strong out-of-sample predictive ability. When back-tested, our estimation approach does not understate house price declines in any state over the 1987 to 2001 housing cycle and only understates declines in three states during the most recent financial crisis. This latter result is particularly noteworthy given that the post-2001 estimates are performed out-of-sample. Our measure of a conservative lower bound is attractive because it (1) provides a leading indicator of the severity of future downturns and (2) allows trough estimates to dynamically adjust as markets conditions change. This estimation technique could prove particularly helpful in measuring the credit risk associated with portfolios of mortgage assets as part of evaluating static stress tests or designing dynamic stress tests. |
| Keywords: | house prices, trough, lower bound, trend, financial stress testing |
| JEL: | G21 C58 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:15-01&r=ure |
| By: | Mark Hoekstra; Pierre Mouganie; Yaojing Wang |
| Abstract: | Despite strong demand for attending high schools with better peers, there is mixed evidence on whether doing so improves academic outcomes. We estimate the cognitive returns to high school quality using administrative data on a high-stakes college entrance exam in China. To overcome selection bias, we use a regression discontinuity design that compares applicants barely above and below high school admission thresholds. Results indicate that while peer quality improves significantly across all sets of admission cutoffs, the only increase in performance occurs from attending Tier I high schools. Further evidence suggests that the returns to high school quality are driven by teacher quality, rather than peer quality or class size. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22337&r=ure |
| By: | Gröbel, Sören; Ihle, Dorothee |
| Abstract: | Housing property is the most important position in a household's wealth portfolio. Even though there is strong evidence that house price cycles and saving patterns behave synchronously, the underlying causes remain controversial. The present paper examines if there is a wealth effect of house prices on savings using household-level longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for the period 1996-2012. We find that young renters increase and young homeowners decrease their savings in response to unanticipated house price shocks, whereas old households only hardly respond to house price changes. We interpret this as evidence of a housing wealth effect. |
| Keywords: | housing wealth,saving behavior,SOEP,Germany |
| JEL: | D91 E21 R31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:86&r=ure |
| By: | Juan Nelson Martinez Dahbura (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This research employs household survey data from El Salvador to evaluate the short-term impact of several measures of crime and a truce between gangs during 2012 on school enrollment and the choice between public and private education for individuals 7 to 22 years old in 2013. The results show that homicides, thefts, robberies and extortions are significantly associated with lower school enrollment and higher attendance to public schools among boys in several age brackets. A robust positive impact of homicide rates and school enrollment for girls under 15 years old, and a positive association between property crimes and the choice of private schools for older girls is observed, possibly reflecting selective investment choices of parents. |
| Keywords: | DEMAND FOR SCHOOLING, SCHOOL CHOICE, CRIME, El Salvador |
| JEL: | D13 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2016–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2016-012&r=ure |
| By: | Brummet, Quentin O.; Bartalotti, Otávio C. |
| Abstract: | While subsidized low-income housing construction provides affordable living conditions for poor households, many observers worry that building low-income housing in poor communities induces individuals to move to poor neighborhoods. We examine this issue using detailed, nationally representative microdata constructed from linked decennial censuses. Our analysis exploits exogenous variation in low-income housing supply induced by program eligibility rules for Low-Income Housing Tax Credits to estimate the effect of subsidized housing on neighborhood mobility patterns. The results indicate little evidence to suggest a causal effect of additional low-income housing construction on the characteristics of neighborhoods to which households move. This result is true for households across the income distribution, and supports the hypothesis that subsidized housing provides affordable living conditions without encouraging households to move to less-affluent neighborhoods than they would have otherwise. |
| Date: | 2016–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:3395&r=ure |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Andreas Mense; Claus Michelsen |
| Abstract: | Rising rents in German cities have led to an intense debate about the need for tighter rent controls in housing markets. In April 2015, the so-called rental brake was introduced, which imposes upper bounds for rents in new contracts, in order to immediately slow down the increase of rents in tight housing markets. Since then, 11 federal states made use of this instrument. We take advantage of this intra-country variation and test whether the regulation had a causal effect on rents and house prices in the short run. We apply a standard difference-in-differences setup that allows us to study the effects of the rental brake on the underlying price trend in neighboring treated and non-treated postal-code districts. We ground our analysis on a large sample of online advertised rental dwellings and find that, contrary to the expectations of the policy makers, the rental brake has, at best, no impact in the short run. At worst, it even accelerates rent increases both in municipalities subject to the rental brake and in neighboring areas. We further conclude, based on our estimates on the development of at prices, that investors expect on little impact on future rental income. |
| Keywords: | Housing policy, rental housing, Germany, rent controls, rental brake |
| JEL: | K23 N9 R30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1584&r=ure |
| By: | Prakarsh Singh; Sutanuka Roy |
| Abstract: | Using a large-scale novel panel dataset (2005.14) on schools from the Indian state of Assam, we test for the impact of violent conflict on female students. enrollment rates. We find that a doubling of average killings in a district-year leads to a 13 per cent drop in girls. enrollment rate with school fixed effects.Additionally, results remain similar when using an alternative definition of conflict from a different dataset. Gender differential responses are more negative for lower grades, rural schools, poorer districts, and for schools run by local and private unaided bodies. |
| Keywords: | Education, Equality and inequality, Human capital, Social conflict |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-067&r=ure |
| By: | Nathaniel Baum-Snow; Loren Brandt; J. Vernon Henderson; Matthew A. Turner; Qinghua Zhang |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the construction of the national highway system in China on local economic outcomes. The analysis employs three main approaches. The first is based on a structural model of Ricardian trade that provides an explicit description of the general equilibrium effects of changes in the highway network. The second involves reduced form estimates of the casual effects highways, which accommodates the non-random assignment of highways across locations. The third approach is a hybrid of the first two. Technique matters. The structural model suggests that access to domestic markets, but not to export markets, increases economic output. The reduced form estimates suggest the opposite conclusion and also point to the importance of highways in the rise of regional primate cities. These reduced form findings are consistent with export driven growth policies and central or provincial government policies favouring regional primate cities. In addition to informing policy, our results raise concerns about the use of quantitative results from Ricardian trade models in isolation for understanding how and the extent to which infrastructure drives regional growth. |
| Keywords: | construction, China, Ricardian trade models |
| JEL: | F10 N65 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0200&r=ure |
| By: | Jeffrey Brinkman; Daniele Coen-Pirani; Holger Sieg |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of underfunding of local government's pension funds using a politico-economic overlapping generations model. We show that a binding downpayment constraint in the housing market dampens capitalization of future taxes into current land prices. Thus, a local government's pension funding policy matters for land prices and the utility of young households. Underfunding arises in equilibrium if the pension funding policy is set by the old generation. Young households instead favor a policy of full funding. Empirical results based on cross-city comparisons in the magnitude of unfunded liabilities are consistent with the predictions of the model. |
| JEL: | E6 H3 H7 R5 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22321&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan Halket (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and Essex); Lars Nesheim (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL); Florian Oswald (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Using the English Housing Survey, we estimate a supply side selection model of the allocation of properties to the owner-occupied and rental sectors. We find that location, structure and unobserved quality are important for understanding housing prices, rents and selection. Structural characteristics and unobserved quality are important for selection. Location is not. Accounting for selection is important for estimates of rent-to-price ratios and can explain some puzzling correlations between rent-to-price ratios and homeownership rates. We interpret this as strong evidence in favor of contracting frictions in the rental market likely related to housing maintenance. |
| Date: | 2015–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:73/15&r=ure |
| By: | Shengyuan Zhang (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jimin Zhao (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | China has established ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, and sustainable urban passenger transport is a key to reaching them. Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving low-carbon development. Using an Activity Structure–Intensity–Fuel (ASIF) framework and a human-based approach that incorporates individual transport behavior using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we model different scenarios for future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2014 to 2050. We find that if Shenzhen successfully constructs urban structures with greater density around the public transportation network, and finds effective ways to restrict vehicle ownership and use (either through mandatory schemes or pricing) while making substantial investments in the walking and cycling environment, it is possible for total urban passenger transport emissions to peak at 4.3 MtCO2 in 2025, and individual emissions would fall by over 65% compared to its 2014 level, reaching 118 kgCO2/person by 2050. |
| Keywords: | ASIF, carbon emissions, energy consumption, urban transportation, scenario analysis, transportation policy |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201633&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report examines the changes that might result from the large-scale uptake of a shared and self-driving fleet of vehicles in a mid-sized European city. The study explores two different self-driving vehicle concepts, for which we have coined the terms “TaxiBot” and “AutoVot”. TaxiBots are self-driving cars that can be shared simultaneously by several passengers. AutoVots pick-up and drop-off single passengers sequentially. |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:6-en&r=ure |
| By: | Tommaso Agasisti (Politecnico di Milano); Patrizia Falzetti (INVALSI); Mara Soncin (Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the impact of managerial practices implemented by Italian school principals on students’ outcomes. We use micro-data provided by the National Evaluation Committee for Education (INVALSI) for 2013/14 school year. Employing an educational production function, we regress a set of student and school’s characteristics, enriched by information from a questionnaire filled by school principals to estimate student’s score at grade 8 (last year of junior secondary school), also taking into account student’s prior achievement (at grade 6 – first year of junior secondary school). We find that the model well fits for student’s characteristics, while managerial practices tend to have positive effects, but low statistical significance. Stronger associations between management variables and test scores are detected for low-SES schools. |
| Keywords: | policy analysis, school principals, school managerial practices, Value Added Model |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:43&r=ure |
| By: | Benjamin Faber; Cecile Gaubert |
| Abstract: | Tourism is one of the most visible and fastest growing facets of globalization in developing countries. This paper combines a rich collection of Mexican microdata with a quantitative spatial equilibrium model and a new empirical strategy to learn about the long-run economic consequences of tourism. We begin by estimating a number of reduced-form effects on local economic outcomes in today's cross-section of Mexican municipalities. To base these estimates on plausibly exogenous variation in long-term tourism exposure, we exploit geological and oceanographic variation in beach quality along the Mexican coastline to construct instrumental variables. To guide the estimation of the aggregate implications of tourism, we then write down a spatial equilibrium model of trade in goods and tourism services, and use the reduced-form moments to inform its calibration for counterfactual analysis. We find that tourism causes large and significant local economic gains relative to less touristic regions, and that these gains are in part driven by significant positive spillovers on manufacturing production. In the aggregate, however, we find that these local spillovers are largely offset by reductions in agglomeration economies among less touristic regions, so that the national gains from tourism are mainly driven by a classical market integration effect. |
| JEL: | F15 F63 O24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22300&r=ure |
| By: | Michael F. Pesko; John A. Tauras; Jidong Huang; Frank J. Chaloupka, IV |
| Abstract: | We use data from the 2006-07 and 2010-11 waves of the Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey to calculate cigarette price elasticities that compensate for within-state cigarette prices, which includes variation from the local tax environment. We use four state-level cigarette price measures and two sub-state-level cigarette price measures. For the two local price measures, we exploit month specific changes in these two prices in 446 sub-state areas of the United States. We document substantial variation in within-state prices, and we calculate that this variation approximately triples estimates of cigarette price responsiveness compared to using state-level prices. When using local prices, we calculate that a 10% rise in cigarette prices reduces cigarette consumption by a mean of 2.5%, which ranges from a 1.7% reduction at a price level $3 to a 5.6% reduction at a price level of $9. Our results suggest an important role for the local tax environment in studies of cigarette price responsiveness. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22296&r=ure |
| By: | Zoran Aralica; Nebojsa Stojcic |
| Abstract: | Abstract Past decades in Central and South East European countries have been characterised with shrinking of manufacturing output and employment. However, little is known about the causes, nature and the extent of deindustrialization in these countries at the regional level. The objective of this research is to explore the regional patterns of deindustrialization and determinants of reindustrialization in several CEECs and SEECs. Our analysis presents one of the first attempts to address these processes at regional level while taking into account the spatial effects. A spatial panel Durbin econometric technique is applied to data covering 2006 – 2012 period to discern inter – regional from intra – regional effects. Results of investigation reveal spatial clustering of economic activity. Traits of deindustrialization are observed in metropolitan areas and in regions on eastern belt of these countries while other regions reveal traits of shift towards high technology intensive manufacturing. Recommendations for future policy makers are provided. |
| Keywords: | deindustrialization, reindustrialization, regions, spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:bpaper:118&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Makles and (Wuppertal Research Institute for the Economics of Education (WIB), University of Wuppertal, Gaußstr. 20, 42119 Wuppertal); Kerstin Schneider (Wuppertal Research Institute for the Economics of Education (WIB), University of Wuppertal, Gaußstr. 20, 42119 Wuppertal and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Noise pollution is detrimental to health and to cognitive development of children. This is not only true for extreme levels of noise in the neighborhood of an airport but also to traffic noise in urban areas. Using a census of preschool children, we show that children who are exposed to intensive traffic noise significantly fall behind in terms of school readiness. Being exposed to additional 10 dB(A) compares to about 3 months in kindergarten. We contribute to the lit-erature and the policy debate by working with administrative data and focusing on everyday exposure to noise. The proposed method is easily applied to other regions. We assess the public costs of different abatement instruments and compare the costs to the benefits. It turns out that the commonly used abatement measures like quiet pavement or noise protection walls in densely populated areas of about 3,000 to 5,000 inhabitants per km2 can be cost efficient, even with a conservative assessment of the benefits. |
| Keywords: | Noise, child development, early education, abatement, abatement costs |
| JEL: | Q53 I18 I26 H23 H54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:schdps:sdp16002&r=ure |
| By: | DIEGO FIRMINO COSTA DA SILVA; J. PAUL ELHORST; RAUL DA MOTA SILVEIRA NETO |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:158&r=ure |
| By: | Elzbieta Antczak; Ewa Galecka-Burdziak; Robert Pater |
| Abstract: | We analyse to what extent spatial interactions affect the labour market matching process. We apply spatial econometrics methods (including spatial panel Durbin model), which are rarely used in labour market matching analysis. We use the data on stocks and the inflows of unemployed individuals and vacancies registered at public employment offices. We conduct the analysis at the NUTS-3 and the NUTS-4 levels in Poland for the period 2003-2014. We find that (1) spatial dependency affects matching processes in the labour market; (2) both close and remote spatial interactions influence the results of the matching process; (3) spatial indirect, direct, and total spillover effects determine the scale of outflows from unemployment; and (4) spatial modelling is a more appropriate approach than classic modelling for matching function. |
| Keywords: | spatial interaction, spillover effect, matching function, region |
| JEL: | C23 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016009&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno Decreuse (Aix-Marseille School of Economics (Aix-Marseille University), EHESS & CNRS); Linas Tarasonis (Aix-Marseille School of Economics (Aix-Marseille University), EHESS & CNRS) |
| Keywords: | Learning; Screening discrimination; Job search; Indirect inference |
| JEL: | J31 J64 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1621&r=ure |
| By: | Shengyuan Zhang (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jimin Zhao (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Albert Park (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | In many developing and emerging economies, rapid income growth and changing demographics is leading to heightened demand for energy-intensive urban transportation. This study provides a comprehensive empirical framework for analyzing how income, age, and education influence individual energy use and carbon emissions through multiple dimensions of travel behavior, including number of trips, trip distance, transportation mode choice, vehicle ownership, and fuel economy of cars. Analyzing travel diary survey data collected by the authors in Shenzhen in 2014, we find that energy consumption and carbon emissions increase almost proportionally to income, and that older age and more education increase energy use and carbon emissions substantially, with the relative importance of different channels varying by factor. |
| Keywords: | ASIF, carbon emissions, energy consumption, urban transportation, scenario analysis, transportation policy |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201635&r=ure |
| By: | Saty Patrabansh (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the loan performance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac first-time homebuyer mortgages originated from 1996 to 2012. First-time homebuyer mortgages generally perform worse than repeat homebuyer mortgages. But first-time homebuyers are younger and have lower credit scores, home equity, and income than repeat home-buyers, and therefore are comparatively less likely to withstand financial stress or take advantage of financial innovations available in the market. The distributional make-up of first-time homebuyers is different than that of repeat homebuyers in terms of many borrower, loan, and property characteristics that can be determined at the time of loan origination. Once these distributional differences are accounted for in an econometric model, there is virtually no difference between the average first-time and repeat home-buyers in their probabilities of mortgage default. Hence, the difference between the first-time and repeat homebuyer mortgage defaults can be attributed to the difference in the distributional make-up of the two groups and not to the premise that first-time homebuyers are an inherently riskier group. However, there appears to be an inherent difference in the prepayment probabilities of first-time and repeat homebuyers holding borrower, loan, and property characteristics constant. First-time homebuyers are less likely to prepay their mortgages compared to repeat homebuyers even after accounting for the distributional make-up of the two groups using information known at the time of loan origination. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:15-02&r=ure |
| By: | Badi Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Peter Egger (ETH Zürich, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle); Michaela Kesina (ETH Zürich, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle) |
| Abstract: | This paper formulates and analyzes Bayesian model variants for the analysis of systems of spatial panel data with binary dependent variables. The paper focuses on cases where latent variables of cross-sectional units in an equation of the system contemporaneously depend on the values of the same and, eventually, other latent variables of other cross-sectional units. Moreover, the paper discusses cases where time-invariant effects are exogenous versus endogenous. Such models may have numerous applications in industrial economics, public economics, or international economics. The paper illustrates that the performance of Bayesian estimation methods for such models is supportive of their use with even relatively small panel data sets. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Econometric; Panel Probit; Multivariate Probit |
| JEL: | C11 C31 C35 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:187&r=ure |
| By: | Ferrett, Ben; Hoefele, Andreas; Wooton, Ian |
| Abstract: | Existing analyses of fiscal competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) often assume a one-shot interaction between governments and the firm within a static environment where the firm makes a permanent location choice. We examine a two-period regional model where economic geography evolves, giving the firm an incentive to relocate between periods. Government competition for FDI leads the firm to make efficient location choices, with relocation "more likely" in the presence of international tax competition, because the winning country's bid absorbs some of the firm's relocation costs. With more time periods, tax competition induces firm relocation sooner than in its absence. |
| Keywords: | dynamic fiscal competition; efficiency; FDI; geographical change |
| JEL: | F23 H25 R38 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11325&r=ure |
| By: | Guillaume Daudin (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine); Raphaël Franck (Bar-Ilan University - Bar-Ilan University [Israël]); Hillel Rapoport (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | France experienced the demographic transition before richer and more educated countries. This paper offers a novel explanation for this puzzle that emphasizes the diffusion of culture and information through internal migration. It tests how migration affected fertility by building a decennial bilateral migration matrix between French regions for 1861-1911. The identification strategy uses exogenous variation in transportation costs resulting from the construction of railways. The results suggest the convergence towards low birth rates can be explained by the diffusion of low-fertility norms by migrants, especially by migrants to and from Paris. |
| Keywords: | Fertility,France,Demographic Transition,Migration |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gmonwp:halshs-01321952&r=ure |
| By: | Acikgoz, Omer; Kahn, James |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a quantitative model that can rationally explain a sizeable part of the dramatic rise and fall of house prices in the 2000-2009 period. The model is driven by the assumption that the government cannot resist bailing out large financial institutions, but can mitigate the consequences by limiting financial institutions' risk-taking. An episode of regulatory forbearance, modeled as a relaxation of loan-to-value limits for conforming mortgages, is welfare-reducing, results in opportunistic behavior and, for plausible parameters inflates house prices and price/rent ratios by roughly twenty percent. This "boom" is followed by a collapse with high default rates. |
| Keywords: | Too-Big-to-Fail, Financial Crisis, House Prices |
| JEL: | E02 E21 E3 G21 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71831&r=ure |
| By: | Baris Alpaslan |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a new model to critically examine associations between human capital, social capital, and health outcomes within the context of a two-period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of endogenous growth model. Basically, individuals with higher level of human capital can build strong social ties, and those individuals who have more robust social networks are less likely to have health problems and are physically healthier. In an attempt to gain a better understanding of broader policy implications, a numerical analysis for low-income countries has been utilised and a sensitivity analysis under a different set of parameter values has been employed in the paper. We provide a comparison of three main experiments: an increase in the share of public spending on education, social capital-related activities, and health. The results confirm the association between education, social capital, and health outcomes, and its favourable effect on long-run growth in low-income countries. |
| JEL: | H51 H52 H59 I15 I25 O41 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-31&r=ure |
| By: | Mark Dynarski; Tom Loveless; Philip Gleason; Brian Gill; Julie Davis Bell; Jim Peyser (Speakers) |
| Keywords: | Charter School, CIRE |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e60dd06b81c24a2592399735b09fb451&r=ure |
| By: | Freishtat, Holly |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236607&r=ure |
| By: | Emilyn Ruble Whitesell |
| Abstract: | Field trips are an important feature of the United States’ education system, although in the current context of high-stakes tests and school accountability, many schools are shifting resources away from enrichment. |
| Keywords: | achievement, field trips/excursions, informal science, museum education, urban education |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:9341ea6211184bea8f4bc0ce825dc42c&r=ure |
| By: | Keith Willett |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:okl:wpaper:1608&r=ure |
| By: | Jorge M. Agüero; Carlos Felipe Balcázar; Stanislao Maldonado; Hugo Ñopo |
| Abstract: | How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse. |
| Keywords: | Resource booms, academic achievement, intergovernmental transfers. |
| JEL: | H23 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:014612&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report assesses quantitatively the competition, scarcity and connectivity impacts of different airline responses to expanding runway capacity at Gatwick or Heathrow. |
| Date: | 2014–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:5-en&r=ure |
| By: | Bindler, Anna (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I study the relationship between unemployment benefits, labour market conditions and crime in the light of increasing unemployment durations and temporary benefit extensions in the US. First, I find a positive reduced form effect of the benefit extensions on property crime. Second, I explore the mechanisms of the reduced form in an IV model and find that higher unemployment and longer unemployment durations are linked to higher property crime rates. These findings can rationalise the reduced form effect: Longer benefit durations are linked to longer unemployment durations which in turn contribute to increased propensities for criminal activity. |
| Keywords: | Crime; unemployment; unemployment duration; unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | J64 J65 K42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0660&r=ure |
| By: | De Giorgi, Giacomo (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Frederiksen, Anders (Aarhus University); Pistaferri, Luigi (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the relevance and mechanics of consumption network effects. We use long panel data on the entire Danish population to construct a measure of consumption based on administrative tax records, and define the peer groups in terms of workplace, occupation, education, and age. We then apply an IV strategy, and fixed effect models, to recover the effects. Our instruments arise naturally from the network structure and firms shocks. The estimated effects are statistically significant and relevant for policies as they generate non-negligible multiplier effects. Further, the results are consistent with a "Keeping-up" model. |
| Keywords: | consumption, networks, social multiplier, risk sharing |
| JEL: | E21 D12 D85 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9983&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The Airports Commission requires an external view on whether its forecasts yield plausible results, taking into account the ways in which the future of the aviation market may develop, prompted by comments received during stakeholder consultations on the forecasts and scenarios developed. This report summarises a review of the forecasts prepared by the International Transport Forum together with independent experts. The report provide views on the appropriateness of the outputs produced, on the most robust central scenarios and on any scenario results that should be treated with particular caution. it also examines one aspect of the methodology used in developing the baseline forecast, the module allocating traffic between London’s airports. |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:13-en&r=ure |