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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Stephen Billings (University of North Caroline Charlotte); David Deming (Harvard University); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Why do crime rates differ greatly across neighborhoods and schools? Comparing youth who were assigned to opposite sides of newly drawn school boundaries, we show that concentrating disadvantaged youth together in the same schools and neighborhoods increases total crime. We then show that these youth are more likely to be arrested for committing crimes together--to be "partners in crime." Our results suggest that direct peer interaction is a key mechanism for social multipliers in criminal behavior. As a result, policies that increase residential and school segregation will--all else equal--increase crime through the formation of denser criminal networks. |
| Keywords: | youth crime, criminal partnerships, neighborhood effects, social interactions |
| JEL: | I20 J10 K40 R20 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2016-006&r=ure |
| By: | Masha Maslianskaia-Pautrel (GRANEM, University of Angers); Catherine Baumont pba148 (Laboratoire d’Economie de Dijon (LEDi), University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté, CNRS UMR 6307, U1200 INSERM) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spatial dimension of the environmental effects. We use recent advances in spatial econometrics to show that hedonic equations produce estimates to be differently interpreted as implicit prices according to spatial models. In particularly, the implicit price of housing attribute combines a feedback effect and a propagation effect and may be interpreted in terms of local or global spillovers. We drive an empirical study in the estuary of the Loire, a rural and urban area well occupied by various natural areas and more artificialized ones. We study various spatial interaction patterns to test the robustness of our estimates and we find that spatial dependencies based on inverse distance and small neighborhoods provide stable estimations. It is consistent too with realistic spatial interaction patterns for household behaviors: information on closer housings is more reliable and comparison areas are in fact limited by the research process. As expected, positive impacts are concentrated on traditional attributes like the proximity to the ocean frontage and quiet places. On the contrary, the presence of various natural wet amenities is negatively valued because of the impression of housing density associated to flood risk. If urban places are more valued by households, it's rather because rural location are less desired than because of urban intrinsic attributes. |
| Keywords: | Environmental valuation, Direct and indirect effects, Spatial hedonic models, Spatial weight matrix, Spillovers |
| JEL: | Q51 C21 C18 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2016.04&r=ure |
| By: | Anders Lund Hansen (Lund University, Department of Human Geography); Henrik Gutzon Larsen (Lund University, Department of Human Geography); Adam Grydehoj (Lund University, Department of Human Geography); Eric Clark (Lund University, Department of Human Geography) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates financialisation of built environments in Stockholm and Copenhagen, especially within the sphere of housing. It presents empirical analyses of processes of financialisation of built environments in the two cities, and how these processes relate to urban politics and governance. The case studies include analyses of how financialisation of built environments and associated shifts in urban politics have impacted on the social geographies of these two capital cities. The Stockholm and Copenhagen cases are presented as individual case studies. A comparative analysis including broader conclusions from these studies and a related case study (of Ankara, in a separate working paper) will be the subject of a sequel working paper. |
| Keywords: | financialisation, built environment, housing, urban governance, social geography |
| JEL: | D63 G19 O29 P16 R00 R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper115&r=ure |
| By: | Gjefsen, Hege Marie; Gunnes, Trude |
| Abstract: | Does school accountability change the teacher composition in schools? We exploit a nested school accountability reform to estimate the causal effect of accountability on teacher mobility and teacher sorting. In 2003, lower secondary schools in Oslo became formally accountable to the school district authority. In 2005, a value added measure of student achievement in lower secondary schools also became public information. Both when using a double and a triple difference estimator, we find significantly increased teacher mobility. Almost all teachers that moved left the teaching sector entirely. Non-stayers were largely replaced by high-ability teachers, yielding a positive sorting effect after the second part of the reform. |
| Keywords: | school accountability, teacher turnover, teacher sorting, difference-in-difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | I2 J2 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69664&r=ure |
| By: | Brunes, Fredrik (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Hermansson, Cecilia (Centre for Banking and Finance, Royal Institute of Technology); Song, Han-Suck (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | A combination of strong urbanization and shortage of land in many European city areas prompts an impetus of infill development, with current residents often raising concerns that infill development leads to lower nearby property prices. The aim of this paper is to analyze how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects in Stockholm, Sweden. We use a difference-in-difference specification in a hedonic model, and our sample consists of more than 40,000 observations over the period 2005–2013. Our results are robust and indicate that house prices in nearby areas increase following the completion of infill development. Our results also indicate that infill development only has a positive spillover effect on nearby house prices only in areas with lower incomes, more public housing units and more inhabitants born abroad. |
| Keywords: | Residential construction; Infill development; NIMBY; YIMBY |
| JEL: | R10 R30 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2016_002&r=ure |
| By: | Asadov, Alam; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | It is well reported that the much fluctuations in Real Estate (RE) markets globally are a result of unequal risk burden caused by deficiencies of financial system and speculative nature of those markets. However, the evidence is mixed in terms of whether high house prices lead to over financing of mortgages or vice versa. This work attempted to resolve this issue by using ARDL approach handy to use for time series data for the United States. The empirical results of the work have some noteworthy theoretical and policy implications. In the short run, house prices seem to be causing an increase in money supply and influencing house financing decisions. However in the long run, availability of new mortgage loans and interest impact seem to dominate. Thus, the implication from the study suggests that we have to consider both the short and the long run aspects of policy and its influence on all sectors of the economy while making such policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Causality, mortgage rate, real estate, ARDL |
| JEL: | C22 C58 R3 |
| Date: | 2016–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69771&r=ure |
| By: | Olga Gorbachev (Department of Economics, University of Delaware); Brendan O'Flaherty (Department of Economics, Columbia University); Rajiv Sethi (Department of Economics, Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Wealth in the US rose and fell precipitously during the first decade of this century, with volatility in Hispanic wealth being especially extreme. We document and account for this disparity. During the boom, Hispanic wealth rose faster primarily because Hispanics lived in cities with surging home values; within cities they did no better than others. But during the bust, Hispanics did worse, even within cities. This pattern is linked to immigration status, and the virtual exclusion of undocumented immigrants from the mortgage market at the beginning of the recession is a key factor in accounting for diferences in wealth trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Wealth Inequality, Housing, Immigration, Ethnicity |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:16-04&r=ure |
| By: | Keiichi Sato,Hiroaki Matsuura,Yozo Tanaka,Shingo Nagamatsu,Masahiro Ooi,Miho Ohara,Yuu Hiroi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of three different public disaster risk information (earthquakes, floods and landslides) on land, housing, and rent prices in Japan. Using two levels of risk information data (250m-mesh and municipality level), we analyze the following effects: the 30-year probability of an earthquake with a Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale of upper-6 and more, the 30-year probability of an above-floor flood inundation, and the sediment disaster hazard area on published land price, real estate transaction price, and rent price published online. We find the positive effect of the probability of an earthquake and an above-floor flood inundation on published land and other prices in general, but find that these prices significantly decrease in the area where the 30-year probability of an earthquake and an above-floor flood inundation are particularly high (50% and more). We also find that the sediment disaster hazard area decreases land and other prices across different specifications. The further research is needed to better understand how people receive and process different disaster risk information and choose their residential location. |
| Keywords: | inequality, heterogeneous agents, productivity growth rates, discount factors JEL Classification Numbers: D24, D31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esj:esridp:327&r=ure |
| By: | Feld J.F.; Zölitz U.N. (GSBE) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates peer effects in a university context where students are randomly assigned to sections. While students benefit from better peers on average, low-achieving students are harmed by high-achieving peers. Analyzing students course evaluations suggests that peer effects are driven by improved group interaction rather than adjustments in teachers behavior or students effort. We further show, building on Angrist 2014, that classical measurement error in a setting where group assignment is systematic can lead to substantial overestimation of peer effects. With random assignment, as is the case in our setting, estimates are only attenuated. |
| Keywords: | Analysis of Education; Education and Inequality; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2016002&r=ure |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Facoltà di Economia (Faculty of Economics), Seconda Università degli Studi di Napoli (Naples Second University)); Valerio Filoso (Department of Law University of Naples) |
| Abstract: | Do different political parties implement divergent policies which impact the citizens’ welfare? The overheated debate notwithstanding, it is far from clear if this is really the case. Whereas current literature focuses on specific policy outcomes, we use real estate prices to evaluate the economic impact of municipal policies. Using a new dataset on Italian municipal elections and real estate prices, we employ a regression discontinuity approach to detect the causal effect of a change in municipal majorities. We find no difference between the effects of the policies enacted by left and right-wing parties. Further evidence confirms that the observed differences in fiscal behavior are hardly relevant for real estate capitalized values. |
| Keywords: | Political partisanship; Municipal politics;Real estate prices;Capitalization;Regression discontinuity. |
| JEL: | H11 H7 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cst:wpaper:201604&r=ure |
| By: | Abate , Megersa (VTI); Vierth , Inge (VTI); Karlsson , Rune (VTI); de Jong , Gerard (Significance); Baak , Jaap (Significance) |
| Abstract: | As part of the further development of the Swedish national freight model system (SAMGODS), we developed a stochastic logistics model in the form of a disaggregate random utility-based model of transport chain and shipment size choice, estimated on the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 2004-2005. Moving from the current deterministic logistics model within the SAMGODS model to a stochastic one, is important because it bases the model on a stronger empirical foundation. The deterministic model was not estimated on observed choice outcomes, but just postulates that the least cost solution will be chosen. We estimated logit models which explain the joint choice of shipment size (in discrete categories) and transport chain separately for sixteen different commodity types. A transport chain (e.g. truck-vessel-truck) is a sequence of modes used to transport a shipment between the locations of production and consumption. Transport cost, travel time and value density are some of the main determinants included in the models. It is important to note that by their very nature these probabilistic models account for the influence of omitted factors. A deterministic model effectively assumes that the stochastic component can be ignored – in other words, that the researcher has full knowledge of all the drivers of behaviour and that there is no randomness in actual behaviour. As a result of adding the stochastic component in the random utility model, the response functions (now expressed in the form of probabilities) become smooth instead of lumped at 0 and 1 as in a deterministic model. This in turn will address the problem of “overshooting” that is prevalent in a deterministic model when testing different scenarios or policies. For two of the commodity types (metal products and chemical products) for which we estimated a transport chain and shipment size choice model, we also implemented the model in the SAMGODS framework. The implementation takes place at the level of the annual firm-to-firm flows by commodity type between producing and consuming firms that are generated by the first steps of the SAMGODS model (PC flows between zones that have been allocated to individual firms at both ends). For every firm-to-firm flow, shipment size and transport chain choice probabilities are calculated and added over the firm-to-firm flows of the PC relation (sample enumeration, as used in several disaggregate transport models). From this, the aggregate OD matrices by mode can be derived straightforwardly, as well as results in terms of tonne-kilometres by mode. It was not possible to empirically model transshipment location choices, because they are not stated in the CFS. Therefore, the determination of the optimal transshipment points for each available chain type from the set of available locations is still done deterministically. The implemented models were applied to produce elasticities of demand expressed in tonne-kilometres for various changes in cost and time for road, rail and sea transport. These elasticities are compared to those for the same commodity types in the deterministic model and to the available literature. The elasticities clearly differ between the two models, they are usually smaller (in absolute values) in the stochastic model, as expected. In the paper, we report the basic differences between a stochastic and a deterministic logistics model, the estimation results for the sixteen commodities, the way the stochastic model was implemented within the SAMGODS model, the elasticities that we obtained for the implemented stochastic model and the comparison with elasticities from the deterministic model and the literature. |
| Keywords: | Freight; Choice model; SAMGODS |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_001&r=ure |
| By: | Aslund, Olof (IFAU); Engdahl, Mattias (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of opening borders to low wage countries. The analysis exploits time and regional variation provided by the 2004 EU enlargement in combination with transport links to Sweden from the new member states. The results suggest an adverse impact on earnings of present workers in the order of 1 percent in areas close to pre-existing ferry lines. The effects are present in most segments of the labor market but tend to be greater in groups with weaker positions. The impact is also clearer in industries which have received more workers from the new member states, and for which across-the-border work is likely to be more common. There is no robust evidence on an impact on employment or wages. At least part of the effects is likely due to channels other than the ones typically considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | migration policy, immigration, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9759&r=ure |
| By: | Nina Budina; Borja Gracia; Xingwei Hu; Sergejs Saksonovs |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias—the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle— that is significantly larger for house price cycles than stand-alone business cycles. Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy generally respond to output fluctuations, whereas revenue increases due to house price booms are largely treated as permanent. Thus, neglecting the direct and indirect impact of asset prices on fiscal accounts encourages procyclical fiscal policies. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Financial crises;housing cycles, private debt, debt bias, debt, price, output, prices, International Lending and Debt Problems, All Countries, debt bias., |
| Date: | 2015–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/246&r=ure |
| By: | Bastos,Paulo S. R.; Straume,Odd Rune |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds out private enrollment. The paper uses rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000 to 2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. The results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no evidence of crowding out private enrollment. This finding is consistent with a theory in which households differ in their willingness to pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Municipal Financial Management,Markets and Market Access,Public Sector Management and Reform |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7573&r=ure |
| By: | Fields, Desiree (University of Sheffield, Department of Geography); Kohli, Rajkumar (University of Leeds, School of Geography); Schafran, Alex (University of Leeds, School of Geography) |
| Abstract: | This working paper utilizes data culled from presale reports from the first wave of rental-backed securities to analyze and describe the emerging trend of single-family home rental (SFR) securitization. Authors provide a basic overview of the market, showing the number and market value of single-family homes involved in these new financial products. Analyzing the geography of the first 15 offerings made between November 2013 and January 2015, authors then produce one of the first maps of the phenomenon, showing a geography heavily weighted towards five states (California, Florida, Texas, Georgia and Arizona) and two Federal Reserve Districts (6 & 12). While the geography of rental securitization is not independent of the post-crisis geography of foreclosure, neither does it map perfectly. Moreover, this geography has evolved over time, with more recent securitizations expanding out from established epicenters of investor activity. Finally, authors examine data on the accessibility of SFR securitized homes to Section 8 tenants, an analysis which suggests a mixed and still very cloudy picture when it comes to the impact on renters. The fundamental conclusion for the policy and community development community is that we simply do not have enough information to draw conclusions as to the future, nature or impact of this growing phenomenon. More transparency and research is needed. |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfcw:2016-02&r=ure |
| By: | Eliane El Badaoui; Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-71&r=ure |
| By: | Donner, Herman (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Kopsch, Fredrik (Departement of Technology and Society / Division of Real Estate Science) |
| Abstract: | The paradigm shift of focus from rental apartments to owner occupied units on the Swedish property market has led to a substantial number of rental apartments being converted to cooperative apartments. Such conversions typically are done at prices far below market value. This provides a setting with strong financial incentives for tenants involved in such a conversion to take advantage of their informational advantage regarding the financial management of a cooperative, as compared to less informed neighbors and buyers on the general market. This setting also provides a reliable way of estimating the persistence and effects of such an informational asymmetry through nearly 200,000 apartment transactions in Stockholm, Sweden during the period of 2005 to mid-2014. We find strong support towards a behavior concurrent with moral hazard; as such insiders mismanage the cooperatives by setting monthly fees artificially low in order to increase the probability of a conversion as well as apartment values. Lastly, market participants seem to discount this informational asymmetry as recently converted apartments sell at lower prices. |
| Keywords: | Informational Asymmetries; Real Estate; Housing Tenure |
| JEL: | D80 D82 R30 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2016_003&r=ure |
| By: | Stijn BAERT (Sherppa, Ghent University, University of Antwerp, Universit‚ catholique de Louvain; IZA); Bart COCKX (Sherppa, Ghent University, IRES, Universit‚catholique de Louvain, IZA; CESifo); Matteo PICCHIO (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali) |
| Abstract: | A dynamic discrete choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short- (end-of-year evaluation) and long-run (drop-out and delay). In contrast to regression discontinuity designs, this approach captures treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade-varying unobservable determinants. We deal with initial conditions and with partial observability of the track choices at the start of high school. Forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. In the longrun, grade retention and its alternative have adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils. |
| Keywords: | Education, dynamic discrete choice models, grade retention, heterogeneous treatment effects, track mobility |
| JEL: | C33 C35 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:417&r=ure |
| By: | Fu, Shihe (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics); Liao, Yu (Clark University); Zhang, Junfu (Clark University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the 2011 China Household Finance Survey data to estimate the effect of change in housing value on homeowners' labor force participation. Using the average housing capital gains of other homes in the same community as an instrument for the housing capital gains of a given household, we find that a 100 thousand yuan increase in housing value leads to a 1.37 percentage point decrease in female homeowners' probability of participating in the labor force and a 1.49 percentage point increase in their probability of becoming housewives. We find little effect on men's labor force participation. |
| Keywords: | housing wealth effect, housing price, labor supply, labor force participation |
| JEL: | J21 J22 R20 R30 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9745&r=ure |
| By: | Nicolas Debarsy (Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans - LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cem Ertur (Econométrie - LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The interaction matrix, or spatial weight matrix, is the fundamental tool to model cross-sectional interdependence between observations in spatial econometric models. However, it is most of the time not derived from theory, as it should be ideally, but chosen on an ad hoc basis. In this paper, we propose a modified version of the J test to formally select the interaction matrix. Our methodology is based on the application of the robust against unknown heteroskedasticity GMM estimation method, developed by Lin & Lee (2010). We then implement the testing procedure developed by Hagemann (2012) to overcome the decision problem inherent to non-nested models tests. An application is presented for the Schumpeterian growth model with worldwide interactions (Ertur & Koch 2011) using three different types of interaction matrix: genetic distance, linguistic distance and bilateral trade flows and we find that the interaction matrix based on trade flows is the most adequate. Furthermore, we propose a network based innovative representation of spatial econometric results. |
| Keywords: | Bootstrap,GMM,Interaction matrix,J tests,Non-nested models,Heteroscedasticity,Spatial autoregressive models |
| Date: | 2016–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01278545&r=ure |
| By: | Carvalho, José-Raimundo; Magnac, Thierry |
| Abstract: | In this document, we review the main characteristics of the survey undertaken in Ceara in 2014 among students of public and private high schools and regarding their characteristics and behavior relative to the choice of college and undergraduate degrees. |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30212&r=ure |
| By: | Tabuchi, T. (University of Tokyo); Thisse, J.-F. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium); Zhu, X. (Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | We show that how technological innovations and migration costs interact to shape the space-economy. Regardless of the level of transport costs, rising labor productivity fosters the agglomeration of activities, whereas falling transport costs do not affect the location of activities. When labor is heterogeneous, the number of workers residing in the more productive region increases by decreasing order of productive efficiency when labor productivity rises. This process affects in opposite directions the welfare of those who have a lower productivity. |
| Date: | 2015–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2015011&r=ure |
| By: | Tara Kaul (International Initiative for Impact Evaluation) |
| Abstract: | Gender discrimination exists in many different forms, and in many different countries and contexts. A wide body of empirical evidence suggests the existence and persistence of gender discrimination within the household. Boys receive preferential treatment from parents in terms of health and educational inputs. In this paper I map out and examine the existence and extent of gender discrimination in India among school going children (ages 4-18) and compare outcomes based on different types of household heterogeneities, such as size, income, location etc. I use child-specific data on enrolment and educational expenditures incurred for all children in the household, thereby making comparison both within and across households.While the male bias exists in both the decision to enrol a child in school, and in the amount of money spent on their books, tuition etc, parents particularly favour first born children. Households in urban areas, and those that have fewer children tend to discriminate less in favour of boys. It also striking that as the number of children increases, parents have higher expectations of financial support in the future from their sons, suggesting that this expectation may be exacerbating the preferential treatment to boys. |
| Keywords: | education, gender discrimination, India |
| JEL: | I24 J16 D19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3305588&r=ure |
| By: | Peters H.J.M.; Schröder M.J.W.; Vermeulen A.J. (GSBE) |
| Abstract: | We consider a variant of Hotellings location model that was proposed by Kohlberg 1983 when choosing a firm, consumers take travel time and also expected waiting time, which again depends on the number of consumers choosing that firm, into consideration. If we assume that firms are symmetric, then we show that a subgame perfect equilibrium exists if there is an even, but small, number of firms and no subgame perfect equilibrium exists if there is an odd, but small, number of firms. Further, we illustrate by means of examples what other subgame perfect equilibria exist if we allow for asymmetric firms. |
| Keywords: | Noncooperative Games; Market Structure and Pricing: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection; Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General; |
| JEL: | C72 D43 R30 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2015040&r=ure |
| By: | Johanna Lacoe; Patrick Sharkey |
| Abstract: | An incident of extreme violence, such as a homicide, disrupts daily life not only through the incident itself but also through the chaos and disruption that emerge in the aftermath of violence. |
| Keywords: | Homicide, Neighborhood Crime, Policing |
| JEL: | J |
| Date: | 2016–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:be45c72483de43a69467b7651c2d5067&r=ure |
| By: | Adriana Kocornik-Mina; Thomas K.J. McDermott; Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | Economic activity tends to return to flood-prone areas after floods rather than relocating to higher ground. What's more, cities built in flood-prone areas are locking in exposure to flood risk for the long term. These are among the findings of research by Guy Michaels and colleagues, which investigates why so many cities are hit by floods year after year. The misery that floods have been inflicting on UK residents in recent weeks is part of a major global problem, the study shows: over the past 30 years, floods worldwide have killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650 million people. Yet despite their exposure to flooding, low elevation urban areas continue to concentrate a high density of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | urbanization, flooding, climate change, urban recovery |
| JEL: | R11 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:463&r=ure |
| By: | Couch, Kenneth A. (University of Connecticut); Fairlie, Robert W. (University of California, Santa Cruz); Xu, Huanan (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Labor force transitions are empirically examined using CPS data matched across months from 1996-2012 for Hispanics, African-Americans and whites. Transition probabilities are contrasted prior to the Great Recession and afterwards. Estimates indicate that minorities are more likely to be fired as business cycle conditions worsen. Estimates also show that minorities are usually more likely to be hired when business cycle conditions are weak. During the Great Recession, the odds of losing a job increased for minorities although cyclical sensitivity of the transition declined. Odds of becoming re-employed declined dramatically for blacks, by 2-4 percent, while the probability was unchanged for Hispanics. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, race, minorities, labor market, labor force, dynamics, Great Recession |
| JEL: | J15 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9761&r=ure |
| By: | Li-Xin Wang |
| Abstract: | We propose a mathematical model for the word-of-mouth communications among stock investors through social networks and explore how the changes of the investors' social networks influence the stock price dynamics and vice versa. An investor is modeled as a Gaussian fuzzy set (a fuzzy opinion) with the center and standard deviation as inputs and the fuzzy set itself as output. Investors are connected in the following fashion: the center input of an investor is taken as the average of the neighbors' outputs, where two investors are neighbors if their fuzzy opinions are close enough to each other, and the standard deviation (uncertainty) input is taken with local, global or external reference schemes to model different scenarios of how investors define uncertainties. The centers and standard deviations of the fuzzy opinions are the expected prices and their uncertainties, respectively, that are used as inputs to the price dynamic equation. We prove that with the local reference scheme the investors converge to different groups in finite time, while with the global or external reference schemes all investors converge to a consensus within finite time and the consensus may change with time in the external reference case. We show how to model trend followers, contrarians and manipulators within this mathematical framework and prove that the biggest enemy of a manipulator is the other manipulators. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to show how the model parameters influence the price dynamics, and we apply a modified version of the model to the daily closing prices of fifteen top banking and real estate stocks in Hong Kong for the recent two years from Dec. 5, 2013 to Dec. 4, 2015 and discover that a sharp increase of the combined uncertainty is a reliable signal to predict the reversal of the current price trend. |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1602.06213&r=ure |
| By: | MILLA, J. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium); SAN MARTIN , E. (Universidad Catolica de Chile, Chile, CORE (UCL) and Measurement Center MIDE UC, Chile); VAN BELLEGEM, S. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | We build a multidimensional value added model to analyze jointly the test scores on several outcomes. Using a unique Colombian data set on higher education within a seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) framework we estimate school outcome specific value added indicators. These are used to measure the relative contribution of the school on a certain outcome, which may serve as an internal accountability measure. Apart from the evident estimation efficiency gains, a joint value added analysis is preferable to the unidimensional one. First, unless modeled in a multidimensional framework, the comparison of value added estimates for different outcomes within a school is not well defined; our model circumvents this issue. Second, even in the case of a separate major field of study analysis there still exists unobserved heterogeneity due to institutional diversity. This makes it more compelling to employ a rich set of outcomes in computing value added indicators. In the end, we aggregate the outcome-specific value added estimates to produce a composite value added index that reflects the combined value added contribution of all the subjects for each school. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional value added, multiple outcomes, quality of higher education |
| JEL: | I23 A22 C31 C51 |
| Date: | 2015–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2015045&r=ure |
| By: | Jordi Blanes i Vidal; Tom Kirchmaier |
| Abstract: | Rapid response policing not only boosts crime detection but also reduces the time it takes to find the offenders. That is the central finding of analysis of data from the Greater Manchester Police by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Tom Kirchmaier. Their research examines whether it is worth police officers aiming to get to the scene of a crime as soon as possible after being alerted by a member of the public. They find that faster response times make it more likely that victims or witnesses will name a suspect. In contrast, longer response times reduce the likelihood of crimes being detected, especially thefts and robbery. |
| Keywords: | Police, crime, organisational performance |
| JEL: | D29 K40 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:467&r=ure |
| By: | Fort, Margherita; Ichino, Andrea; Zanella, Giulio |
| Abstract: | Exploiting admission thresholds in a Regression Discontinuity Design, we study the causal effects of daycare at age 0-2 on cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes at age 8-14. One additional month in daycare reduces IQ by 0.5% (4.5% of a standard deviation). Effects for conscientiousness are small and imprecisely estimated. Psychologists suggest that children in daycare experience fewer one-to-one interactions with adults, which should be particularly relevant for girls who are more capable than boys of exploiting cognitive stimuli at an early age. In line with this interpretation, losses for girls are larger and more significant, especially in affuent families. |
| Keywords: | child development; childcare; cognitive skills; daycare; non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | H75 I20 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11120&r=ure |
| By: | Nava Ashraf; Edward L. Glaeser; Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto |
| Abstract: | Cities generate negative, as well as positive, externalities; addressing those externalities requires both infrastructure and institutions. Providing clean water and removing refuse requires water and sewer pipes, but the urban poor are often unwilling to pay for the costs of that piping. Standard welfare economics teaches us that either subsidies or Pigouvian fines can solve that problem, but both solution are problematic when institutions are weak. Subsidies lead to waste and corruption; fines lead to extortion of the innocent. Zambia has attempted to solve its problem with subsidies alone, but the subsidies have been too small to solve the “last-mile problem” and so most poor households remain unconnected to the water and sewer system. In nineteenth-century New York, subsidies also proved insufficient and were largely replaced by a penalty-based system. We present a model that illustrates the complementarity between infrastructure and institutions and provides conditions for whether fines, subsidies or a combination of both are the optimal response. One point of the model is that the optimal fine is often not a draconian penalty, but a mild charge that is small enough to avoid extortion. |
| Keywords: | public health, infrastructure, institutions, subsidies, fines, last-mile problem |
| JEL: | O18 R53 O21 H41 I18 N91 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1505&r=ure |
| By: | Rémi BAZILLIER; Francesco MAGRIS; Daniel MIRZA |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2314&r=ure |
| By: | Schipper, Tyler |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the ability to innovate affects firms' decisions to operate informally and the aggregate consequences of their sectoral choice. I embed a sectoral choice model, where firms choose to operate in the formal or informal economy, into a richer general equilibrium environment to analyze the aggregate effects of firm-level decisions in response to government taxation. I calibrate the model and conduct simulations to quantify the impacts on the aggregate economy. I find that a change in tax rates from 50% to 60% leads to a 20.9% reduction in the size of the formal sector. This change is accompanied by a 0.07 percentage point reduction in TFP growth per year. Given that countries like Mali, Mexico, and Sri Lanka impose total tax rates near 50%, these findings have significant and applicable policy implications across a broad range of lesser developed countries. Even at lower tax rates, for instance 10%, a 10% increase, decreases the size of the formal sector by more than 7.7%. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Innovation, Productivity Growth, TFP |
| JEL: | H32 O17 O31 O41 |
| Date: | 2014–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69647&r=ure |
| By: | Khaled Guesmi; Frédéric Teulon |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2013-6&r=ure |