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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Bietenbeck, Jan (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how sharing a kindergarten classroom with low-achieving repeaters affects the long-term educational performance of regular first-time kindergarten students. Exploiting random assignment of teachers and students to classes in Project STAR, I document three sets of causal impacts: students who are exposed to repeaters (1) score lower on standardized tests at the end of kindergarten, an effect that fades out in later grades; (2) show persistent improvements in non-cognitive skills such as effort and discipline; and (3) are more likely to graduate from high school and to take a college entrance exam around the age of eighteen. I show that the positive spillovers from repeaters on long-term educational attainment are likely driven by the differential accumulation of non-cognitive skills by repeater-exposed students during childhood. The improvements in these skills are in turn a result of behavioral adjustments by teachers, students, or parents to the presence of low-achieving repeaters in the classroom. |
| Keywords: | peer effects; non-cognitive skills; early childhood; Project STAR. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2015–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2015_035&r=ure |
| By: | Antonis M. Koumpias, Eduardo Sanz-Arcega (Georgia State University); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Georgia State University); Eduardo Sanz-Arcega (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | The adoption of the euro in 2002 led to an unprecedented supply of cheap mortgage credit in Greece and Spain. The housing bubbles that ensued amplified developers' incentives to offer bribes for illegal construction projects. We exploit the mortgage credit windfall as the shock that induced variation in housing prices to examine the effects of the latter on zoning corruption. The empirical analysis relies on objective measures of zoning corruption at the regional level from 2003 through 2008 for Greece and from 2006 through 2008 for Spain. We employ legal indictments of zoning officials from prosecution records for Greece, which are novel to the literature, and media reports of zoning corruption scandals for Spain. Adjusting for unemployment, population, population density and college attainment, our baseline negative binomial regression estimates indicate a positive and significant relationship between housing prices and zoning corruption. Our findings are robust to a series of checks that include zero-inflated variants of the negative binomial model, and linear models that address model misspecification, omitted variables and dynamic panel bias. In the case of Spain, we are also able to analyze the sensitivity of our findings using a provincial panel that provides substantially more cross-sectional variation. |
| Keywords: | Housing Bubbles, Corruption, Zoning, Land Use, Greece, Spain, Euro |
| Date: | 2015–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1505&r=ure |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Melbourne); Moschion, Julie (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the source of the gender gap in third grade numeracy and reading. We adopt an Oaxaca-Blinder approach and decompose the gender gap in educational achievement into endowment and response components. Our estimation relies on unusually rich panel data from the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Children in which information on child development reported by parents and teachers is linked to each child's results on a national, standardized achievement test. We find that girls in low- and middle-SES families have an advantage in reading, while boys in high-SES families have an advantage in numeracy. Girls score higher on their third grade reading tests in large part because they were more ready for school at age four and had better teacher-assessed literacy skills in kindergarten. Boys' advantage in numeracy occurs because they achieve higher numeracy test scores than girls with the same education-related characteristics. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps, educational achievement, education, Australia |
| JEL: | J13 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9535&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Alder (University of North Carolina at Chapel H) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a general equilibrium framework as in Eaton and Kortum (2002) to estimate the contribution of transport infrastructure to regional development. I apply the analysis to India, a country with a notoriously weak and congested transportation infrastructure. I first analyze the development effects of a recent Indian highway project that improved connections between the four largest economic centers. I estimate the effect of this new infrastructure on income across districts using satellite data on night lights. The results show aggregate gains from the Indian highway project, but unequal effects across regions. China has followed a different highway construction strategy and has experienced more significant convergence across regions than India. I therefore use the model to gauge the effects of a counterfactual highway network for India that replicates the Chinese strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. The results suggest that this counterfactual network would have benefited the lagging regions of India. I also construct additional counterfactuals and discuss their effects on economic development. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:1447&r=ure |
| By: | Alex van de Minne; Federica Teppa |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates demand and supply of mortgage credit by using a hierarchical trend model. The empirical analysis is based on loan-level data covering the years 2005-2014 in the Netherlands. We find that high-income households take out higher loan amounts and have higher collateral values. Interest rates are negatively related to both loan amounts and collateral values. The common trend in the loan equation, a proxy for the changes in demand and supply of mortgage credit over time, suggests a large decline in mortgage demand and supply after 2007. The common trend in the collateral value equation is highly correlated with the common trend in the loan equation, suggesting a high pass-through rate of changes in credit conditions from loan to value. We also find that young household cohorts can afford to buy better quality houses in 2014 than in 2005, even if they could borrow less. On the contrary, older household cohorts take out higher loans in 2014 than in 2005, but their collateral values do not change. We argue that younger households took up less mortgage debt as they became more credit constraint over time. Older households on the other hand suffered from negative home equity, forcing them to take up higher mortgage loans. |
| Keywords: | house prices; mortgage credit; credit conditions |
| JEL: | G21 E51 C32 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:486&r=ure |
| By: | Bover, Olympia |
| Abstract: | I analyze new data on subjective probabilistic expectations on house prices collected in the Spanish Survey of Household Finances. Households are asked to distribute ten points among five different scenarios for the change in the price of their homes over the next 12 months. This paper is the first empirical study to document the beliefs of a representative sample of households about the future value of their homes. It also reviews the methodology of expectation measurement and recent work on household subjective probabilities. I model individual subjective probability densities using splines, construct quantiles from those densities, and analyze how the heterogeneity in the individual distributions relates to differences in housing and household characteristics. An important result of the paper is that women are more optimistic about the evolution of house prices than men. Location at the postal code level accounts for a large fraction of the variation in the subjective distributions across households. Finally, I provide some results on how subjective expectations matter for predicting spending behavior. Housing investment and car purchases are negatively associated with pessimistic expectations about future house price changes and with uncertainty about those expectations. |
| Keywords: | consumption; gender bias; house price expectations; household subjective probabalistic expectations; portfolio decisions |
| JEL: | C81 D12 D14 D84 R21 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10946&r=ure |
| By: | Olga V. Kotomina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) are characterized by high concentration in large urban areas due to the presence of more developed infrastructure, higher human capital development, proximity to the large customer, etc. However, companies in the KIBS sector have potential for development (new knowledge, experience) in collaboration with agents located in other regions. This paper is focused on the spatial aspects of the knowledge intensive business services sector in Russia. The study is based on a unique empirical data from mass surveys of Russian producers and consumers of KIBS. Comparative analysis of the incoming and outgoing flows of KIBS in Russian regions helps us to classify federal districts by their involvement in KIBS exchange, and to map the intensity of these flows. We have identified regions that are actively involved in both the purchase of services and their delivery outside the regional boundaries (Volga and Central Districts); active regions of consumption with an average level of production (Northwestern and Siberian Districts); and the passive regions, who are only weakly involved in inter-regional exchange of knowledge intensive business services (Ural and Southern Federal Districts) |
| Keywords: | Knowledge intensive business services, spatial proximity, spatial development, interregional cooperation. |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:50sti2015&r=ure |
| By: | Erlend Eide Bø (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | The Norwegian public policy debate regularly returns to the private housing market. Housing prices have increased by 200 percent in real terms over the last two decades, a large share of households have high debt ratios, and new home buyers face large costs to enter the housing market. In addition, maintaining the welfare state in the face of population aging will likely involve higher tax burdens on the working population in the years to come. As housing is taxed leniently in Norway, increased taxation of housing stands out as a way of killing several birds with one stone: it generates tax revenue, moderates housing prices and increases efficiency. In this paper I discuss the effects on revenue and distribution of a hypothetical change in the taxation of housing in which housing would be taxed as other capital assets. This involves taxing imputed rental income, and a modified wealth taxation schedule. In contrast to other papers on distributional effects of housing taxation, I also take into account the effects of taxation on housing demand. Changes in housing prices that would follow a reform are estimated using a simple user-cost model. I find that the housing tax increase would increase personal tax revenue by 11 percent and make the tax system more progressive. Housing prices would be reduced by 18 percent. |
| Keywords: | Taxation; Distribution; Housing |
| JEL: | D31 H24 R21 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:829&r=ure |
| By: | Tumen, Semih (Central Bank of Turkey); Zeydanli, Tugba (Collegio Carlo Alberto) |
| Abstract: | The literature documents that job satisfaction is positively correlated with worker performance and productivity. We examine whether aggregate job satisfaction in a certain labor market environment can have an impact on individual-level job satisfaction. If the answer is yes, then policies targeted to increase job satisfaction can increase productivity not only directly, but through spillover externalities too. We seek an answer to this question using two different data sets from the United Kingdom characterizing two different labor market environments: Workplace Employment Relations Survey (WERS) at the workplace level (i.e., narrowly defined worker groups) and British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) at the local labor market level (i.e., larger worker groups defined in industry x region cells). Implementing an original empirical strategy to identify spillover effects, we find that one standard deviation increase in aggregate job satisfaction leads to a 0.42 standard deviation increase in individual-level job satisfaction at the workplace level and 0.15 standard deviation increase in individual-level job satisfaction at the local labor market level. These social interactions effects are sizable and should not be ignored in assessing the effectiveness of the policies designed to improve job satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | job satisfaction, social interactions, spillovers, hierarchical model, WERS, BHPS |
| JEL: | C31 D62 J28 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9505&r=ure |
| By: | Edlund, Lena (Columbia University); Machado, Cecilia (Fundação Getúlio Vargas); Sviatschi, Maria (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | In 1980, housing prices in the main US cities rose with distance to the city center. By 2010, that relationship had reversed. We propose that this development can be traced to greater labor supply of high-income households through reduced tolerance for commuting. In a tract-level data set covering the 27 largest US cities, years 1980-2010, we employ a city-level Bartik demand shifter for skilled labor and find support for our hypothesis: full-time skilled workers favor proximity to the city center and their increased presence can account for the observed price changes, notably the rising price premium commanded by centrality. |
| Keywords: | gentrification, returns to skill, time use, location choice |
| JEL: | R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9502&r=ure |
| By: | Patrizia Lattarulo (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana); Alessandro Petretto (Università di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | The progressive intensification of the tax burden at local scale which has taken place in the last few years as well as the want of stable resources by local bodies is urging a general reconsideration of the modalities in which Italian municipalities are financed. This work discusses the introduction of the Local Tax in Italy, and presents different hypotheses on how it should be devised. The first part recalls the theoretical principles underpinning a tax scheme aimed at financing municipal services and confirms the soundness of a real estate property tax; the second part illustrates the equity implications of the reform proposals meant to shift from the property tax to the Local Tax; the third part presents a comparison among the different types of local tax recommended in the current debate, drawing attention to the possible effects on the tax burden and on the balancing of local bodies’ budgets. The hypotheses compared are a “secondary” municipal property tax (Imposta Municipale Secondaria – IMU S), a “minimal” local tax; and a local tax that involves a partial or complete exemption for the main house. The first hypothesis has a poor effect, particularly as regards the goal of simplification, given the low amounts and the reduced number of municipalities involved, so that it does not seem appropriate as a means of local financing. The second one, which complies with vertical harmonization, modifies the taxable base of municipalities, thus implying a reform of their present organization, a fact that, considering the current budgetary difficulties, makes this the most complex of these hypothesis. The third one, which is the one privileged in the current debate, pursues the goals of equity; the present work analyzes the possible effects of the alternatives of partial versus total exemption for the main house and discusses the modalities to finance the manoeuvre. The financing of the exemption for the main house through transfer taxes is obviously the easiest and straightest way, but it lessens the tax autonomy, and thus the financial responsibility, of local governments. Conversely, financing the exemption with an increase of the property tax on secondary houses has a limited impact in terms of tax burden and municipal revenues, since the two amounts largely compensate each other. Then again, the distributive impact is quite uncertain. From a distribution point of view, this works underlines the efficacy of a system of permanent deductions as well as the prospective relevance of Land Registry’s reform. |
| Keywords: | taxation, local finance, real estate property taxes |
| JEL: | H31 H71 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irp:essays:596&r=ure |
| By: | Lalanne, Aurélie; Zumpe, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the methods to detect the nature of the urban growth processes. It seems that cointegration testing enables to disentangle two versions of Gibrat’s law: a first one with growth shocks that are iid across time and cities (implying convergence of the city-size distribution towards Zipf’s law), and an alternative one with growth shocks that are only iid over time (implying conservation of the initial structure of the city size distribution). |
| Keywords: | Zipf’s law, Gibrat’s law, Cointegration tests, unit root tests, urban growth, urban system |
| JEL: | C41 O40 R00 R11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67992&r=ure |
| By: | Ilhom Abdulloev (Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation in Tajikistan and IZA, Bonn); Gil S. Epstein (Bar-Ilan University, CReAM, London and IZA, Bonn); Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University, CReAM, London, IOS Regensburg and IZA, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Some immigrants try to keep their ethnicity hidden while others become ever deeply more mired in their home culture. We argue that among immigrants this struggle manifests itself in the ethnic goods they choose to consume. Different types of ethnic goods have vastly different effects on immigrant assimilation. We develop a simple theoretical model useful for capturing the consequences of this struggle, illustrating it with examples of Central Asian assimilation into the Muscovite economy. |
| Keywords: | assimilation, migrants, culture, ethnic goods |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2015–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rut:rutres:201519&r=ure |
| By: | Mauro Massaro (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazionae Economica della Toscana); Leonardo Piccini; Patrizia Lattarulo (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazionae Economica della Toscana) |
| Abstract: | Local public transport has long been the object of a complex reform process directed at reducing the costs and improving the supply of services. The strategy proposed at European level is competition on the market, similarly to other local public services. Tuscany has been one of the first regions to actually implement the process. The experiment of a unique bidding system is currently under way, so it might represent a relevant case study on the possible effects of reform. Although not over yet, the competitive bid has already entailed some important transformations in the system of local public transport, starting processes of business integration, consolidation of operators by way of shareholding, and cost efficiency. |
| Keywords: | public transport, road transport |
| JEL: | R42 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irp:report:597&r=ure |
| By: | Budina, Nina; Gracia, Borja; Hu, Xingwei; Saksonovs, Sergejs |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias—the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle— that is significantly larger for house price cycles than stand-alone business cycles. Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy generally respond to output fluctuations, whereas revenue increases due to house price booms are largely treated as permanent. Thus, neglecting the direct and indirect impact of asset prices on fiscal accounts encourages procyclical fiscal policies. |
| Keywords: | housing cycles, public debt, private debt, debt bias |
| JEL: | E32 F34 G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2015–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68052&r=ure |
| By: | Saenz, Mariana (Georgia Southern University); Lewer, Joshua J. (Bradley University) |
| Abstract: | This article contributes to immigration literature by applying a Random Utility Maximization model to derive a migration gravity model that explains factors affecting migration outflows per administrative unit and region for the country of Colombia. Negative binomial cross-sectional estimates indicate that departments sharing an international border and overall labor market conditions are significance determinants of migration patterns for the departments, but non-economic factors such as credit constraints and cultural networks also affect migration outflows. Estimation of regional migration outflows are also provided and yield unique findings per geographic location. |
| Keywords: | emigration, Colombia, gravity model, negative binomial regression |
| JEL: | F22 C25 H11 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9514&r=ure |
| By: | Åslund, Olof (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Blind, Ina (Institute for Housing and Urban Research (IBF)); Dahlberg, Matz (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of commuter train access on individual labor market outcomes. Our study considers the introduction of a commuter train on a pre-existing railroad in Sweden, considerably decreasing commuting times by public transit and hence increasing access to the regional employment center. Using difference-in-differences matching techniques on comprehensive individual panel data spanning over a decade, our intention-to-treat estimates show that the reform essentially had no impact on the earnings and employment development among the affected individuals. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure investment; commuting; job access; labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J22 J63 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2015_025&r=ure |
| By: | Mauro Mastrogiacomo; Remco van der Molen |
| Abstract: | The Dutch mortgage portfolio is characterised by high LTV ratios, a large proportion of interest-only mortgages, and a huge tax subsidy in the form of mortgage interest deduction (MID). At the same time, delinquencies, defaults and risk weights are low. This study shows new empirical evidence, mostly acquired through DNB's loan level data initiative, on risk characteristics of the Dutch mortgage portfolio. Using these detailed data, we show how these characteristics are distributed across the population and how they are correlated. We also present micro simulation results on the transmission of an interest rate shock to households and on the persistence of underwater mortgages. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbocs:1304&r=ure |
| By: | Hoon Choi (AQR Research Group-IREA. University of Barcelona); Álvaro Choi (IEB Research Group. University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | The Korean government has struggled against the proliferation of private tutoring for more than four decades. In 2006, state education authorities imposed a restriction on operating hours of hagwon (private tutoring academies or cram schools) in an attempt at reducing the economic and time resources spent on private tutoring. Since then, some provincial authorities have modified the curfew on hagwon. We take advantage of these policy shifts to identify average treatment effects taking a difference-in-differences approach. Our findings suggest that enforcing the curfew did not generate a significant reduction in the hours and resources spent on private tutoring, our results being heterogeneous by school level and socioeconomic status. Demand for private tutoring seems to be especially inelastic for high school students, who increased their consumption of alternative forms of private tutoring. As the consumption of private tutoring is positively correlated with academic performance and socioeconomic status, the curfew may have a negative effect on the equality of educational opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Private tutoring, Demand for schooling, Expenditures, Difference in differences, Korea JEL classification: I21, I22, I24 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201512&r=ure |
| By: | Bournakis, Ioannis; Papanastassiou, Marina; Pitelis, Christos |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relative effects of Multinational Enterprises’ (MNEs) subsidiaries to domestic firms (DOMS) on regional productivity growth in the UK. We combine regional and firm level data to explore the relative importance of three key characteristics of Multinational Enterprises’ subsidiaries: R&D, intangible assets and exports. Our main results indicate that MNE subsidiaries are on average more R&D intensive and have a higher level of investment in intangibles which impact significantly on regional productivity growth. The results are shown not to be symmetric when we take into account the country of origin of MNE subsidiaries, the role of R&D, intangibles and exports depending on the country of origin of the parental MNE. Two key implications can be derived from our findings: (a) DOMS can sometimes be more advantageous for local development; (b) the contribution of MNEs subsidiaries to the regional economy depends on its degree of embeddedness in the local economy. These two findings can provide a large scope for regional policy making. |
| Keywords: | Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Regions, Multinationals, Subsidiaries, Domestic Firms, R&D, Intangibles, Exports |
| JEL: | F23 O47 R3 |
| Date: | 2015–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68090&r=ure |
| By: | Coral del Rio (Universidade de Vigo and EQUALITAS, Spain); Olga Alonso-Villar (Universidade de Vigo and EQUALITAS, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at quantifying the welfare loss that a society can experience due to the segregation of the demographic groups that comprise it. In aggregating the well-being losses (gains) of the groups derived for being concentrated in low-status (high-status) organizational units, this paper embraces the distributive approach adopted in the literature on economic deprivation and poverty. In addition to developing several measures, this paper explores the welfare losses that the United States has experienced over the last decades due to occupational segregation by both gender and race/ethnicity. The analysis is undertaken at both a national and a regional level since occupational segregation along these lines is far from been a homogenous phenomenon across the country. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2015-378&r=ure |
| By: | Reinhilde Veugelers |
| Abstract: | This contribution focuses on the heterogeneity in innovation capacity within Europe across its different Member States. Who are the leading and who are the lagging EU countries? Is there a trend towards convergence over time? And how has the crisis affected this trend of convergence? We then take a look at the research and innovation policies which the EU countries have in place and try to assess whether these policies match with the heterogeneous EU countries’ innovation capacity positions. We examine both the budgets allocated by EU Member States to R&I as well as the various kinds of R&I policy programmes being deployed. More particularly, we examine how heterogeneous the deployment of policy instruments is across EU member states and whether this matches with the heterogeneity in innovation capacity development among EU countries. Notwithstanding the large and increasing heterogeneity among EU countries in innovation capacity development, the evidence on innovation policies in EU countries shows a relative homogeneity of policy mixes in different countries. Current innovation policy mixes of instruments do not well reflect the countries’ levels of innovation capacity development. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, innovation policy, institutional reforms, multi-level governance |
| JEL: | O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feu:wfepbr:y:2015:m:8:d:0:i:8&r=ure |
| By: | Chen, Kaiji (Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Wen, Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for alternative stores of value can induce even the currently most productive agents to speculate in the housing market, even if housing provides no rents or utilities. We show that such speculative investment behavior can create a self-fulfilling housing bubble that grows much faster than the national income during an economic transition, thus explaining China's massive "ghost apartment" phenomenon and decade-long faster-than-income growth in housing prices despite high capital returns. |
| Keywords: | housing bubble; resource misallocation; Chinese economy; development; economic transition |
| JEL: | E22 E23 O11 O16 P23 P24 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedacq:15-03&r=ure |
| By: | Meyer, Tobias (NIW Hannover, Leibniz Universität Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan L. (NIW Hannover, Leibniz Universität Hannover); Schneider, Heidrun (DZHW-German Centre for Research on Higher Education and Science Studies) |
| Abstract: | Most German states have reformed university preparatory schooling during the last decade by reducing its duration from 13 to 12 years without changing the graduation requirements. In this paper, we use nationwide data on high school graduates and apply a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the reform effects on post-secondary education decisions. The results show that enrollment in university education in the first year after high school graduation is reduced in all analyzed states, while participation in voluntary service or staying abroad is increased. In some subgroups, depending on state, gender and family background, university enrollment is decreased additionally beyond the first year. |
| Keywords: | school duration, learning intensity, post-secondary education decisions, Germany |
| JEL: | I21 J18 C21 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9507&r=ure |
| By: | Wagner, Valentin; Riener, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the result of a field experiment on the effectiveness of non-monetary incentives on pupils' achievement on a mathematical multiple choice test. Our sample consists of 2113 pupils of deprived and high-achieving secondary schools in Germany. Based on a pre-study, we compare the effectiveness of (i) a medal (ii) a letter of praise to the parents and (iii) a delegation of choice over incentives. The effect of non-monetary incentives depends on pupils' socio-economic background. While they constitute a potentially cost-effective and easily implementable method of motivation in Non-High Schools, predetermined non-monetary incentives crowd out intrinsic motivation for pupils in High Schools. In contrast, the endogenous choice of the reward increases pupils' willingness to prepare for the test and mitigates the negative effect of predetermined external rewards in High Schools. Additionally, in the delegation treatment, we find that low-achieving pupils typically choose a reward with a higher signaling value to their parents, independent of the school type. |
| Keywords: | non-monetary incentives,field experiment,education,incentive choice,effort,socio-economic background |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I21 J1 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:203&r=ure |
| By: | Glyn Wittwer; Janine Dixon |
| Abstract: | The NSW Department of Industry commissioned CGE model development in order to enhance regional labour market analysis. The Centre of Policy Studies has developed VUEF (Victoria University Employment Forecasting), a dynamic model used in labour market forecasting. VUEF is a national dynamic model. It includes regional detail, but this is limited to a top-down module in which regions do not have separate labour markets and production functions. Rather, it relies on exogenous regional shares to distribute national results to each region. Dynamic TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), with multi-regional bottom-up representation, has been used for policy analysis at the regional level at the Centre of Policy Studies since 2003. Until now, it has not been used to examine occupational or skills composition in the labour market. We have adapted the recently developed VUEF labour market module for use in dynamic TERM. This paper elaborates on the regional labour market module, with minimal details of the linkages with the core TERM model. The labour market module has been developed as a standalone model for training purposes. In practice, it is likely that the fully dynamic TERM model with the labour market module will be used for analysis. This paper also includes some guidance concerning the use of RunDynam. |
| Keywords: | skills shortages, occupational forecasting, regional modelling, RunDynam |
| JEL: | R13 R15 R23 P25 P48 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-257&r=ure |
| By: | María de los Llanos Matea (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses the headship rate method to draw up various scenarios of net household formation and, by extension, of the demand for primary dwellings in Spain to 2029. INE’s Household Projection is taken as a baseline scenario and different scenarios are prepared, under different assumptions about the pace of household formation and immigrant inflows. All the scenarios present a potential demand for dwellings far removed from the figure of 427,000 recorded between 2002 and 2008, placing the range between 63,000 and 236,000 dwellings per year. |
| Keywords: | potential demand of primary dwellings, demographic projections, households, headship rate method. |
| JEL: | J11 L74 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1504&r=ure |
| By: | Reichelt, Malte (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Haas, Anette (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Over the past several decades, most industrialized countries have experienced a rise in commuting distances, spurring scholarly interest in its determinants. The primary theoretical explanation for longer commuting distances is based on higher wages; however, empirical evidence is minimal. We argue that commuting indeed often results from changes to jobs with higher wages. However, local labor market opportunities strongly moderate individuals' responsiveness to wage changes, resulting in diverse wage effects determined by the place of residence. Using German survey data linked to administrative information with a mixed-effects design, we find that when changing jobs the effect of wages on commuting distances rises substantially according to the local labor market density. While residents in the least dense areas do not adjust their commuting distance substantially in response to a wage change, residents in areas with the highest employment density are highly responsive. This result indicates the need to take into account the regional labor market structure when analyzing commuting patterns as local opportunities strongly influence the adjustment process of commuting distances. Particularly commuters from economic centers seem to adjust their distances to a great degree." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Pendler, Pendelwanderung - Determinanten, Pendelwanderung - Motivation, Lohnhöhe, zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität, Arbeitsplatzdichte, regionale Faktoren, Arbeitsweg, IAB-Datensatz Arbeiten und Lernen |
| JEL: | J61 J62 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201533&r=ure |
| By: | LIU Yang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of the individual level of social capital in the process of workers' wage determination in a Nash-bargaining wage model using Chinese micro-level data. We find a significant contribution of individual-specific social capital towards the wage level. In particular, larger individual social networks and workers' positive attitudes towards social capital increase the wage level significantly. Moreover, the effect of social capital on the wage level is much larger for male workers than females. Our results indicate that construction of individual social capital could increase workers' wages, while effort should be made to reduce unequal contributions of social capital between males and females. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15133&r=ure |
| By: | Joao Bernardo Duarte; Daniel A. Dias |
| Abstract: | In this paper we unveil a feedback loop between monetary policy, housing tenure choice (own vs rent) and measured inflation and quantify its consequences. This feedback loop is explained in three parts: i) Housing rents respond positively to contractionary monetary policy shocks; ii) This effect of interest rates on housing rents gives rise to an important and systematic inflation mismeasurement problem because, directly and indirectly, housing rents weigh approximately 30\% in the CPI and 13\% in the PCE; iii) When interest rates are set according to a Taylor rule, the systematic mismeasurement of inflation gives rise to a feedback loop by which the monetary authority keeps setting interest rates too high (low) because inflation is apparently too high (low). To rationalize i) and quantify the importance of iii) we propose a standard New Keynesian model augmented with an endogenous housing tenure choice mechanism. Using a calibrated version of the model, we do a counterfactual exercise and estimate that, when the monetary authority targets the implied consumer price index net of housing rents instead of the implied consumer price index, the loss function of monetary policy is 14.5\% lower and the welfare in terms of consumption equivalent variation is 0.9\% higher. Finally, analyzing the same alternative scenario for the 1983-2006 US experience, we find that the standard deviation of housing prices and nominal inflation would have been 24.8\% and 19.9\% lower, respectively. |
| JEL: | E31 E43 R21 |
| Date: | 2015–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jmp:jm2015:pdu385&r=ure |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser (Harvard University); Scott Duke Kominers (Harvard Business School); Michael Luca (Harvard Business School, Negotiation, Organizations & Markets Unit); Nikhil Naik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Media Lab) |
| Abstract: | New, "big" data sources allow measurement of city characteristics and outcome variables higher frequencies and finer geographic scales than ever before. However, big data will not solve large urban social science questions on its own. Big data has the most value for the study of cities when it allows measurement of the previously opaque, or when it can be coupled with exogenous shocks to people or place. We describe a number of new urban data sources and illustrate how they can be used to improve the study and function of cities. We first show how Google Street View images can be used to predict income in New York City, suggesting that similar image data can be used to map wealth and poverty in previously unmeasured areas of the developing world. We then discuss how survey techniques can be improved to better measure willingness to pay for urban amenities. Finally, we explain how Internet data is being used to improve the quality of city services. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:16-065&r=ure |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Abidhadjaev, Umid (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine the nature and magnitude of the effects of infrastructure provision on regional economic performance. The empirical evidence of our analysis is based on difference-in-difference estimation linking the changes in the growth rate of regional-level economic outcomes in affected regions to the newly built railway connection in the southern part of Uzbekistan, conditioned on the regions’ time-invariant individual effects, time-varying covariates, and evolving economic characteristics. To explore the differential nature of infrastructure provision, we employ an estimation examining regional, spillover, and connectivity effects from the railway connection, as well as the anticipation, launch, and postponed effects of such a connection. Our empirical results suggest that the Tashguzar–Boysun–Kumkurgon railway line in Uzbekistan encouraged an increase of around 2% in the regional gross domestic product growth rate in affected regions in the frame of connectivity effects. This seems to have been driven by increases in industry value added and services value added of approximately 5% and 7%, respectively. Positive and significant changes in the industrial output of the directly affected and neighboring regions mostly took place during the design and construction period in anticipation of the railway connection. The impact on agricultural output has been moderate in comparison to the abovementioned sectors, constituting around 1%, which is consistent with previous literature on the differential impact of public capital. Our results and the framework provided might help regulatory bodies to conduct comprehensive estimations of the impact of infrastructure and develop the formulation of both promotional and compensatory measures related to or induced by the effects of infrastructure provision. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure investment; impact evaluation; Uzbekistan; railway connection |
| JEL: | H54 O11 O23 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0548&r=ure |
| By: | Peter McHenry (College of William and Mary); Melissa McInerney (Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | Despite concern regarding labor market discrimination against Hispanics, previously published estimates show that Hispanic women earn higher hourly wages than white women with similar observable characteristics. This estimated wage premium is likely biased upwards because of the omission of an important control variable: cost of living. We show that Hispanic women live in locations (e.g., cities) with higher costs of living than whites. After we account for cost of living, the estimated Hispanic-white wage differential for non-immigrant women falls by approximately two-thirds. As a result, we find no statistically significant difference in wages between Hispanic and white women in the NLSY97. |
| Keywords: | Hispanic-white wage disparities, Cost of living differentials, Immigrant and non-immigrant Hispanics, NLSY |
| JEL: | J31 J70 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:15-241&r=ure |
| By: | Tatsuro Iwaisako (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Kazuyoshi Ohki (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a Schumpeterian growth model that differs from the quality-ladder model in the following two ways. First, the size of the quality increment is determined by a random draw from a given distribution, and consequently leader firms are different in terms of their quality lead over their followers, and thus have different profit flows. Second, we assume that the R&D technology of leader firms exhibits diminishing returns, and consequently some leader firms engage in R&D activities. The results show that leaders with larger quality leads over their followers make smaller R&D investments and tend to be replaced more rapidly; this result is consistent with the behaviors of some previous leader firms such as Sony and Eastman-Kodak. Moreover, we show that subsidizing followersf R&D can promote leadersf aggregate R&D. Subsidies for followersf R&D promote their R&D and impede individual leader firmsf R&D. However, promotion of followersf R&D decreases the number of leaders with larger quality leads and smaller R&D investments and increases that of leaders with smaller quality leads and larger R&D investments. If this positive effect from a changed distribution outweighs the negative effects on individual firmsf R&D, promotion of followersf R&D increases leadersf aggregate R&D. |
| Keywords: | Schumpeterian growth; Heterogeneous leaders; R&D subsidies |
| JEL: | L16 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1530&r=ure |
| By: | Gobillon, Laurent (Paris School of Economics); Solignac, Matthieu (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the difference in homeownership rates between natives and first-generation immigrants in France, and how this difference evolves over the 1975-1999 period, by using a large longitudinal dataset. We find that the homeownership gap is large and has increased. Entries into the territory have a large negative effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants. Although entrants have on average better education than people staying in the territory for the entire period (i.e. stayers), they are younger and thus at an earlier stage in the wealth accumulation process. They are also located in large cities, where the homeownership rate is lower, and the returns to their characteristics are lower than those for stayers. Leavers have a positive effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants because they have a low access to homeownership and they exit the country. But this effect is only one-third that of entrants. For stayers, we show that returns to characteristics change in favor of immigrants, which is consistent with assimilation theories. However, among stayers who access homeownership, immigrants end up in owned dwellings that are of lesser quality than natives. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, immigrants, longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J15 R21 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9517&r=ure |
| By: | Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne |
| Abstract: | Through USDA’s National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs, schools receive financial support to assist them in serving nutritious meals to students. Meal reimbursements are provided to a school food authority (SFA) on the basis of a child’s financial need, allowing schools to provide healthy meals to low-income students for free or at a reduced price. Reimbursement rates are set nationwide, yet variation in school location, size, and other factors may influence the costs to schools for providing meals, with implications for the adequacy of reimbursement. Previous ERS research using data from the 2002-03 school year found that school food service costs vary by location. This study uses those same data to build on that research by examining breakfast and lunch costs separately to assess how economies of scale and the balance between the number of breakfasts and lunches served affect costs. Costs of both breakfasts and lunches vary considerably across SFAs. Economies of scale exist for both breakfasts and lunches but are much stronger for breakfasts. The balance between breakfasts and lunches served also affects costs, with the cost per breakfast dropping dramatically as the number of breakfasts and lunches served become more balanced. |
| Keywords: | National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, school meals, school food service costs per meal, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Industrial Organization, |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:212480&r=ure |
| By: | Fredriksson, Peter (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Hensvik, Lena (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Nordström Skans, Oskar (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the direct impact of idiosyncratic match quality on entry wages and job mobility using unique data on worker talents matched to job-indicators and individual wages. Tenured workers are clustered in jobs with high job-specific returns to their types of talents. We therefore measure mismatch by how well the types of talents of recent hires correspond to the talents of tenured workers performing the same jobs. A stylized model shows that match quality has a smaller impact on entry wages but a larger impact on separations and future wage growth if matches are formed under limited information. Empirically, we find such patterns for inexperienced workers and workers who were hired from non-employment, which are also groups where mismatch is more pronounced on average. Most learning about job-specific mismatch happens within a year. Experienced job-to-job movers appear to match under much less uncertainty. They are better matched on entry and mismatch have a smaller effect on their initial separation rates and later wage growth. Instead, match quality is priced into their starting wages. |
| Keywords: | Matching; Job search; Comparative advantage; Employer learning |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2015–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2015_026&r=ure |
| By: | Farzana Afridi (Economics and Planning Unit,Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi and Research Fellow, IZA); Amrita Dhillon (Department of Political Economy, King’s College London, External Affiliate, CAGE, University of Warwick and Associate Member, Nuffield College.); Swati Sharma (Economics and Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we survey some of the more recent theoretical and empirical literature on social networks and labour productivity. We discuss the use of referrals in recruitment of workers and the possible mechanisms underlying their use as well as ex-post effects on productivity from having connected workers in the firm and the channels for these effects. We also suggest some open questions for further research. |
| Keywords: | Referrals, Screening, Search, Learning, Moral Hazard, Peer effects, co-worker networks, strength of ties, wage premia, wage penalty, favouritism. JEL Classification: J41, J31, D82, D86, O12, O17 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:243&r=ure |
| By: | Kohei Nishikawa (Faculty of Economics, Setsunan University); Hiroshi Ohashi (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively examine an under-studied topic in the literature of real estate economics; Condominium Management. The paper particularly focuses on the degree of market competition and human resource management from the perspective of condominium management companies. The paper finds that the market competition indeed plays a significant role in the determination of service prices offered by the management companies. Since the industry is labor intensive, how to accumulate human capital in this industry is also an important issue. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2015cj272&r=ure |
| By: | Winters, John V. (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | College graduates are considerably more mobile than non-graduates, and previous literature suggests that the difference is at least partially attributable to college graduates being more responsive to employment opportunities in other areas. However, there exist considerable differences in migration rates by college major that have gone largely unexplained. This paper uses microdata from the American Community Survey to examine how the migration decisions of young college graduates are affected by earnings in their college major. Results indicate that higher major-specific earnings in an individual's state of birth reduce out-migration suggesting that college graduates are attracted toward areas that especially reward the specific type of human capital that they possess. |
| Keywords: | graduate migration, college major, college graduates, human capital |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9512&r=ure |
| By: | Gerardi, Kristopher S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Herkenhoff, Kyle F. (University of Minnesota); Ohanian, Lee E. (University of California, Los Angeles); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | The authors exploit new data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to provide a more systematic and detailed analysis of household-level employment, income, and expense shocks to mortgage default decisions than has been possible before. These new data provide very different answers regarding the importance of employment and financial factors in the decision to default on a mortgage than have been found in previous studies that were based on crude proxies for household-level financial variables. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D19 |
| Date: | 2015–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:15-13&r=ure |
| By: | J. David Lopez-Salido (Federal Reserve Board); Etienne Gagnon (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | We study the pricing response of U.S. supermarkets to large demand shocks triggered by labor conflicts, mass population relocation, and shopping sprees around major snowstorms and hurricanes. Our focus on demand shocks is novel in the empirical literature that uses large datasets of individual data to bridge micro price behavior and aggregate price dynamics. We find that large swings in demand have, at best, modest effects on the level of retail prices, consistent with flat short- to medium-term supply curves. This finding holds even when shocks are highly persistent and even though stores adjust prices frequently. We also uncover evidence of tit-for-tat behavior by which retailers with radically different demand shocks nonetheless seek to match their local competitors' pricing movements and recourse to sales and promotions. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:1480&r=ure |
| By: | Lars Boerner; Battista Severgnini |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the early adoption of one of the most important high-technology machines in history, the public mechanical clock, on long-run growth in Europe. We avoid en- dogeneity by considering the relationship between the adoption of clocks with two sets of instru- ments: distance from the first adopters and the appearance of repeated solar eclipses. The latter instrument is motivated by the predecessor technologies of mechanical clocks, astronomic instru- ments that measured the course of heavenly bodies. We find significant growth rates between 1500 and 1700 in the range of 30 percentage points in early adoptor cities and areas. |
| Keywords: | technological adoption; cities; mechanical clocks; information technology |
| JEL: | N13 N93 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:64495&r=ure |