nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2015‒08‒25
fifty papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Urban Infrastructure Investment and Rent-Capture Potentials By Vincent Viguié; Stéphane Hallegatte
  2. Transit Riders’ Perception of Waiting Time and Stops’ Surrounding Environments By Marina Lagune-Reutler; Andrew Guthrie; Yingling Fan; David Levinson
  3. Willingness to pay for accessibility under the conditions of residential segregation By Marko Kryvobokov; Louafi Bouzouina
  4. The Texas Economic Model, Miracle or Mirage? A Spatial Hedonic Analysis By Wang, Hongbo
  5. Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel By Caspi, Itamar
  6. Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms: A Cross-Country Perspective By Eugenio Cerutti; Jihad Dagher; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
  7. Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris By Vincent Viguié; Stéphane Hallegatte; Julie Rozenberg
  9. Detecting and Forecasting Large Deviations and Bubbles in a Near-Explosive Random Coefficient Model By Anurag Narayan Banerjee; Guillaume Chevillon; Marie Kratz
  10. Efficient Hinterland Transport Infrastructure and Services for Large Container Ports By Michele ACCIARO; Alan MCKINNON
  11. RHOMOLO: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling Approach to the Evaluation of the EU’s R&D Policies By Andries Brandsma; D'Artis Kancs
  12. The Value of a Private Education: Differential Returns and Selection on Observables By Anil Nathan; Sovita Hean; Ryan Elliot
  13. Consumer Spending and Property Taxes By Surico, Paolo; Trezzi, Riccardo
  14. Accessibility and Centrality Based Estimation of Urban Pedestrian Activity By Brendan Murphy; David Levinson; Andrew Owen
  15. Accessibility and Transit Performance By Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson
  16. Comparing fast VRP algorithms for collaborative urban freight transport systems: a solution probleming analysis By Josep-Maria Salanova Grau; Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu
  17. Climbing Mount Next: The Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Society By David Levinson
  18. Procedural Formalism and Social Networks in the Housing Market By Antoine Bonleu
  19. Is Bicycling Contagious? Effects of Bike Share Stations and Activity on System Membership and General Population Cycling By Jessica Schoner; Greg Lindsey; David Levinson
  20. Social housing in Europe By Kathleen Scanlon; Melissa Fernández Arrigoitia; Christine M E Whitehead
  21. Intra-household Bargaining for School Trip Accompaniment of Children: A Group Decision Approach with Altruism By Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson
  22. Adjusting content to individual student needs: Further evidences from a teacher training program By Adrien Bouguen
  23. Household Debt and Crises of Confidence By Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried
  24. Interregional flows of PhDs: an analysis of French long-term data By Bastien Bernela; Olivier Bouba-Olga; Marie Ferru
  25. The Effect of Compulsory Engagement on Youth Crime By Nikhil Jha
  26. Migration externalities in Chinese cities By Pierre-Philippe Combes; Sylvie Démurger; Shi Li
  27. Two-way models for gravity By Koen Jochmans
  28. An Analysis of Wage Differentials between Full- and Part-Time Workers in Spain By Ramos, Raul; Sanromá, Esteban; Simón, Hipólito
  29. A Measure for identifying substantial geographic Concentrations By van Egeraat, Chris; Morgenroth, Edgar; Kroes, Rutger; Curran, Declan; Gleeson, Justin
  30. Dynamics of social norms in the city By Fabien Moizeau
  31. Wealth Effects on Consumption across the Wealth Distribution: Empirical Evidence By Luc Arrondel; Pierre Lamarche; Frédérique Savignac
  32. Rural waste generation : a geographical survey at local scale By Florin-Constantin Mihai; Ana-Maria Oiste; Dan-Adrian Chelaru
  33. New Evidence on Mobility and Wages of the Young and the Old By Hansen, Jörgen; Lkhagvasuren, Damba
  34. Accessibility Analysis of Risk Severity By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  35. Residential Space Heating Determinants and Supply-Side Restrictions: Discrete Choice Approach By Elena Stolyarova; Hélène Le Cadre; Dominique Osso; Benoit Allibe; Nadia Maïzi
  36. Bad Behavior: Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving By van Ours, Jan C.; Ward, Shannon; Williams, Jenny
  37. Accessibility and the Ring of Unreliability By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  38. High-Speed Rail Performance in France: From Appraisal Methodologies to Ex-post Evaluation By Yves Crozet
  39. An indicator of the need for regional integration By Patrick Guillaumont; Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney
  40. Why are there so many long-term unemployed in Paris? By Florent Sari; Yannick L'Horty
  41. Zoning a cross-border city By Bárcena Ruiz, Juan Carlos; Casado Izaga, Francisco Javier
  42. Does Development Aid Undermine Political Accountability? Leader and Constituent Responses to a Large-Scale Intervention By Raymond P. Guiteras; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
  43. Interest rates, debt and intertemporal allocation: evidence from notched mortgage contracts in the United Kingdom By Best, Michael Carlos; Cloyne, James; Ilzetzki, Ethan; Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen
  44. Leveraging the Power of Place: Using Pay for Success to Support Housing Mobility By Rinzler, Dan; Tegeler, Philip; Cunningham, Mary; Pollack, Craig
  45. Games Played on Networks By Yann Bramoullé; Rachel Kranton
  46. Impact of property rights reform to support China?s rural-urban integration : village-level evidence from the Chengdu national experiment By Deininger,Klaus W.; Jin,Songqing; Liu,Shouying; Shao,Ting; Xia,Fang
  47. The reform of passenger rail in Switzerland: more performance without competition? By Christian Desmaris
  48. A mechanism design approach to the Tiebout hypothesis By Jehiel, Philippe; Lamy, Laurent
  49. Urbanization and Agricultural Structural Adjustments: Some Lessons from European Cities By Walid Oueslati; Julien Salanié; Junjie Wu
  50. The Impact of Lease Structures on the Optimal Holding Period for a Commercial Real Estate Portfolio By Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme; Michel Baroni; Fabrice Barthélémy; Mahdi Mokrane

  1. By: Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Stéphane Hallegatte (World Bank - World Bank)
    Abstract: In a context of rapid urbanization and energy transition, massive investments will be required to develop efficient public transport networks. Capturing the increase in land value caused by transport infrastructure (for example, through a betterment tax) appears a promising way to finance public transport. However, it is no trivial task, as it is difficult to anticipate the rent creation. This paper uses a simple city model based on urban economic theory to compute the rent created by improvements in public transport infrastructure in Paris, France. To apply in places where models or data are not available, a reduced form of the model is shown to provide acceptable approximations of the rent creation. Simulations confirm that land value capture can finance a significant part of transport investments. The simulations also show that value capture potentials are influenced by what happens in the entire agglomeration. Simultaneous infrastructure investments in different parts of the city play a significant role, as they change overall accessibility patterns. Evolutions taking place in other cities also have a comparable influence. Non-local effects can change the total potential for land value capture and multiply this potential by as much as a factor of two.
    Date: 2014–10
  2. By: Marina Lagune-Reutler; Andrew Guthrie; Yingling Fan; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Reducing the burden of waiting in transit travel is critical to increase the attractiveness of public transportation and encourage people’s shift from automobile mode. Research shows that wait time perception is highly subjective and varies according to various factors such as mode, availability of schedule information or stops amenities. In addition, high-quality environments are known to reduce stress and to encourage walking and biking. Nevertheless, little research exists on the influence of the stops and stations surrounding environment on transit users’ wait time perception. This study aims to respond to this knowledge gap in order to optimize stop localization and micro urban design around stops. The study compares transit users’ actual and estimated wait time at 36 stops and stations offering a mix of environmental situations in the Twin Cities region. A regression analysis is used to explain the variation in riders’ waiting time estimates as a function of their objectively observed waiting times, as well as stop and station surrounding environment characteristics. The results show that, for waits longer than five minutes, the more the environment is polluted and exposed to traffic, the more transit users tend to overestimate their wait time and that, on the contrary, the more mature trees are present the shorter the wait time is perceived. The combination of the three variables indicates that after 5 minutes wait, the presence of trees achieves to compensate the effects of both air pollution and traffic awareness. Policy implications and further research needs are discussed.
    Keywords: Public transportation, transit, rail, bus, stop, station, waiting time, time perception, environment, air pollution, traffic, tree, planning, urban design.
    JEL: R41 C93
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Marko Kryvobokov (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Louafi Bouzouina (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE])
    Abstract: The hypothesis that different income groups have different willingness to pay for accessibility to the city centre is based on the standard monocentric model. This hypothesis is empirically tested with accessibility attributes in a hedonic model of apartment prices in the suburbs of the city of Lyon, France. The conditions of residential segregation are described, and apartment prices in the poor and the rich suburbs are analysed with regression techniques. Travel times to two urban centres are accounted for, as well as centrality and accessibility integral indexes. We found that in the selected areas the hypothesis is true. Spatial differences between the estimates for accessibility measures are significant. In more socially problematic areas, the willingness to pay for better accessibility is higher.
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Wang, Hongbo
    Abstract: As a state without a personal income tax that has experienced strong employment and population growth in the past, Texas was held up as the economic policy model for Kansas and Oklahoma to follow in recently cutting their personal income tax rates. Using micro-level data, this paper examines whether Texas has benefitted from its mix of public policies by examining the geographic patterns of estimated quality-adjusted wages and housing costs across the U.S. The overall finding is an absence of significantly positive capitalized effects from the policies of Texas. The only significant capitalized policy effect found was lower quality of life in Texas nonmetropolitan areas relative to those in Oklahoma.
    Keywords: State income tax, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
    JEL: H30 R51 R58
    Date: 2015–07–31
  5. By: Caspi, Itamar (Bank of Israel)
    Abstract: Between 2008 and 2013, home prices in Israel appreciated by roughly 50 percent in real terms, with increases of nearly 60 percent in some regions. This paper examines whether this phenomenon reflects the presence of a national or regional housing bubble by applying econometric tests for explosive behavior to quality adjusted national and regional level data on the home price to rent ratio, while controlling for various fundamental factors, including interest rates, income and the leverage ratio. Overall, study results indicate that the recent housing price appreciations at the national and regional levels are consistent with the developments of the fundamentals – supply and demand factors that are represented by rent payments and interest rates – and not with a housing bubble scenario. Most of the results are robust to a variety of tests and alternate specifications. The framework I provide to study the Israeli case may be applied to study other housing markets facing similar developments.
    JEL: C22 G12 R21
    Date: 2015–08–01
  6. By: Eugenio Cerutti; Jihad Dagher; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
    Abstract: The recent global crisis highlighted the risks stemming from real estate booms. This has generated a growing literature trying to better understand the sources and the risks associated with housing and credit booms. This paper complements and supplements the previous work by (i) exploiting more disaggregated data on credit allowing us to dissociate between firm-credit and household (and in some cases mortgage) credit, and (ii) by taking into account the characteristics of the mortgage market, including institutional as well as other factors that vary across countries. This detailed cross-country analysis offers new valuable insights.
    Keywords: Central banks and their policies;Credit booms;Financial stability;Housing finance, real estate, macroprudential regulation, mortgage, finance, credit, mortgage markets, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation,
    Date: 2015–06–03
  7. By: Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Stéphane Hallegatte (World Bank - World Bank); Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS)
    Abstract: The NEDUM-2D model is used to downscale four global socioeconomic scenarios at city scale and simulate the evolution of the Paris urban area between 1900 and 2100. It is based on a dynamic extension of the classical urban economic theory, to explain the spatial distribution of land and real estate values, dwelling surfaces, population density and buildings heights and density. A validation over the 1900-2010 period shows that the model reproduces available data and captures the main determinants of city shape evolution. From four global scenarios and additional local inputs, 32 local scenarios are created and analyzed. Main drivers of urban sprawl and climate and flood vulnerability appear to be local demographic growth and local policies; global factors, such as energy and transport prices, even including possible peak-oil and carbon taxes, have only a limited influence on them. Conversely, transport-related greenhouse gases emissions are mainly driven by global factors, namely vehicle efficiency changes, not by land use. As a consequence, very strict urban policies — including reconstruction — would become necessary to control emissions from urban transportation if technologies reveal unable to do so. These scenarios are a useful input for the design and assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies at local scale.
    Date: 2014
  8. By: André De Palma (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X, ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan); Matthieu DE LAPPARENT (IFSTTAR/AME/DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - PRES Université Paris-Est); Nathalie Picard (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS)
    Abstract: There is substantial literature on modelling individual residential location choices. We restrict here our attention to some key aspects discussed below, which remain overlooked in the litterature. First, the set of decisions related to residential location in a multiperiod setting typically involve a very large number of alternatives. At a given date, a choice entails several dimensions: where to locate, which dwelling types and which tenure status. A fine tuned demand analysis of housing choices, would consider dozens of small geographical units for potential locations, at least two tenure types (own or rent) and at least two dwelling types (apartment or house). Another aspect is: who makes residential location related decisions. Recent litterature (see Picard & Chiappori (2011), de Palma et al. (2013)) shows that accounting for intra-household negotiation processes provide a new understanding about how residential location choices may result from consensus reached by household members. Most of research work is yet based on unitary household approaches that consider there is a single decision maker in the family.
    Date: 2014–12–08
  9. By: Anurag Narayan Banerjee (Business school - Durham University); Guillaume Chevillon (SID - Information Systems, Decision Sciences and Statistics Department - Essec Business School); Marie Kratz (SID - Information Systems, Decision Sciences and Statistics Department - Essec Business School, MAP5 - MAP5 - Mathématiques Appliquées à Paris 5 - CNRS - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 - Institut National des Sciences Mathématiques et de leurs Interactions)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a Near Explosive Random-Coefficient autoregressive model for asset pricing which accommodates both the fundamental asset value and the recurrent presence of autonomous deviations or bubbles. Such a process can be stationary with or without fat tails, unit-root nonstationary or exhibit temporary exponential growth. We develop the asymptotic theory to analyze ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimation. One important theoretical observation is that the estimator distribution in the random coefficient model is qualitatively different from its distribution in the equivalent fixed coefficient model. We conduct recursive and full-sample inference by inverting the asymptotic distribution of the OLS test statistic, a common procedure in the presence of localizing parameters. This methodology allows to detect the presence of bubbles and establish probability statements on their apparition and devolution. We apply our methods to the study of the dynamics of the Case-Shiller index of U.S. house prices. Focusing in particular on the change in the price level, we provide an early detection device for turning points of booms and bust of the housing market.
    Date: 2013–09–23
  10. By: Michele ACCIARO; Alan MCKINNON
    Abstract: The growth in container volumes and the concentration of container flows on a limited number of hubs, which derives, among other things, from the increasing vessel size, requires the development of new terminal infrastructure at ports able to handle the latest generation of vessels. In addition to the pressure that such vessels impose on the terminal cargo handling capabilities, it is often forgotten, that those larger vessels will also require higher capacity in hinterland transportation or a rationalization and better use of existing transport alternatives. Those ports that are already plagued by inland congestion or that are located in the proximity of densely populated areas, will have to come up with viable alternatives to reduce the impact of congestion and relieve local communities from the negative externalities generated by increasing cargo flows. The development of new terminal infrastructure should then take into account the effects that increasing traffic volumes will have on the existing infrastructure and plan for expansion if necessary. As volumes increase, alternative modes of transport, such as rail or short-sea shipping are being promoted both to reduce both congestion and environmental impacts. In the specific case of Chile and the new development associated with the Puerto de Gran Escala project, it is imperative to carefully plan the development of the hinterland infrastructure. This is not only necessary to ensure that the investment yields adequate economic benefit; it must also maximise the social and environmental sustainability of the project. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in hinterland transport management, focusing on the challenges that the development of new container terminal infrastructure is likely to bring to the local communities. Recommendation and a set of good practice case studies of good practice are also provided.
    Keywords: emissions, hinterland transportation, port gate, port hinterland, rail access to terminals
    Date: 2013–11–13
  11. By: Andries Brandsma (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); D'Artis Kancs (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: European integration changes the prospects of regional economies within the Member States of the European Union in many ways. Cohesion policy is the EU’s instrument to influence and complement the efforts at the national level to ensure that the gains of economic integration reach everyone, and there are no regions left behind. This paper presents and applies a spatial general equilibrium model RHOMOLO to assess the impact of regional policy in the EU. The presented simulation results highlight strengths of the approach taken in RHOMOLO in handling investments in R&D, infrastructure and spillovers of investments in the innovation capacity of the regions, both of which cannot be captured by models in which the spatial structure is not present.
    Keywords: Economic modelling, R&D, innovation, knowledge spillovers, spatial equilibrium, economic geography.
    JEL: D51 F1 O1 R12 R13 R23 R3 R4
    Date: 2015–07
  12. By: Anil Nathan (Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross); Sovita Hean (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross); Ryan Elliot (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross)
    Abstract: The academic value of a private education versus a public education is explored. This study first attempts to see whether there are differential returns to a private education based on ability level. It also intends to non-parametrically control for the selection on observables of the decision to attend private school. Using 8th graders from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, we find that the there is a positive effect on standardized math test scores using OLS. Based on quantile regression results, average students benefit most from a private education. Low-achieving and high-achieving students do not benefit as much. The particularly low return to a private education for high achievers suggests most of them would succeed at any school. Average treatment effects on the treated (ATET) are twice as large and average treatment effects (ATE) are more than three times as large as ordinary least squares estimates. These results suggest that perhaps private schools are actually not selecting the best students, but rather selecting average students and adding value to them.
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2014–07
  13. By: Surico, Paolo (London Business School); Trezzi, Riccardo (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Abstract: A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and yield large tax revenues.
    Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; marginal propensity to spend; mortgage debt; residential property taxes
    JEL: E21 E62 H31
    Date: 2015–07–27
  14. By: Brendan Murphy; David Levinson; Andrew Owen (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Non-motorized transportation, particularly including walking and bicycling, are increasingly becoming important modes in modern cities, for reasons including individual and societal wellness, avoiding negative environmental impacts of other modes, and resource availability. Institutions governing development and management of urban areas are increasingly keen to include walking and bicycling in urban planning and engineering; however, proper placement of improvements and treatments depends on the availability of good usage data. This study attempts to predict pedestrian activity at 1123 intersections in the Midwestern, US city of Minneapolis, Minnesota, using scalable and transferable predictive variables such as economic accessibility by sector, betweenness network centrality, and automobile traffic levels. Accessibility to jobs by walking and transit, automobile traffic, and accessibility to certain economic job categories (Education, Finance) were found to be significant predictors of increased pedestrian traffic, while accessibility to other economic job categories (Management, Utilities) were found to be significant predictors of decreased pedestrian traffic. Betweenness centrality was not found to be a significant predictor of pedestrian traffic, however the specific calculation methodology can be further tailored to reflect real-world pedestrian use-cases in urban areas. Accessibility-based analysis may provide city planners and engineers with an additional tool to predict pedestrian and bicycle traffic where counts may be difficult to obtain, or otherwise unavailable.
    Keywords: safety, walking, safety-in-numbers, crashes, traffic counts, network structure, accessibility
    JEL: J21 R14 R41 R42
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This study disentangles the impact of financial and physical dimensions of transit service operators on net transit accessibility for 46 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. To investigate this interaction along with the production efficiency of transit agencies, two types of analysis are used: a set of linear and quadratic regressions and a data envelopment analysis. We find that vehicle revenue kilometers and operational expenses play a pivotal role in enhancing the accessibility to jobs by transit. The bivariate linear regression models indicate a 1% increase in operational expenses and vehicle revenue kilometers increase the number of jobs that can be reached within 30 minutes by 0.96 and 0.95%, respectively. The results of the quadratic functional form, also, show transit services may have both increasing and decreasing accessibility returns to scale depending on system size, and the results are sensitive to the model used. Overall, the highest system efficiency (access produced per input) is found in the New York, Washington, and Milwaukee metropolitan areas, while Riverside, Detroit, and Austin perform with the lowest efficiency.
    Keywords: Public transit; Accessibility; Envelope of output; Returns to scale; Metropolitan area
    JEL: C31 D24 L92 O18 R14 R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Josep-Maria Salanova Grau (Hellenic Institute or Transport - Center of Research and Technologie Hellas); Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (PIESO-ENSMSE - Département Performance Industrielle et Environnementale des Systèmes et des Organisations - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom - Institut Henri Fayol, EVS - UMR 5600 Environnement Ville Société - ENSAL - Ecole nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a comparison between two fast heuristic algorithms to solve a multi-carrier 2E-VRP in city logistics, under realistic conditions. We propose a cluster-first route second algorithm to compare the performance of two route construction and post-optimization algorithms on real-size test cases. The clustering phase is made by a seep algorithm, which defines the number of used vehicles and assigns a set of customers to it. Then, for each cluster, which represents a vehicle, we build a min-cost route by the two following methods. The first is a semi-greedy algorithm. The second is a genetic algorithm that includes post-optimization at the level of each route. In this work we make the route construction and post-optimization without any possible exchange of the routes to guaranty a pertinent comparison between both algorithms. After presenting both approaches, we apply them, first to classical 2E-CVRP instances to state on the algorithm capabilities, then on real-size instances to compare them. Computational results are presented and discussed. Finally, practical implications are addressed.
    Date: 2015
  17. By: David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: The United States spent almost the entire twentieth century climbing Mount Auto. From the 1920s onward, the automobile was the dominant mode of travel for Americans, accumulating more miles per capita than other modes. While the Great Depression slowed the auto’s growth, it did not result in decline. There was a brief downturn during World War II, and a few hiccups in the steady rise of mileage. But the later 2000s and 2010s have seen a sharp downturn in motor vehicle use per capita. This drop is greater than the drop during World War II in absolute terms (though the War saw a drop of twenty-three percent off the pre-war peak, and the 2012 drop is seven percent below 2005). It is complemented by an apparent plateauing in total miles of paved roads since 2008. Within the transportation sector there have been small shifts over the past fifteen years, which cannot explain much of the decline of travel. There are active transportation modes, like walking and biking, which work well for short trips, and certainly have niches they can grow into if land development intensifies and people reorganize their lives to enable them. For instance, I am one of the seven percent of Minneapolitans who walk to work. The numbers are much lower outside core cities, and nationally, at three percent. Transit ridership per capita is up ever so slightly. There are a slew of “new mobility options†which use information technologies to allow travel without owning an automobile, but are not yet visible in the transportation statistics. These include peer-to-peer taxi and ridesharing services and dynamic real-time rental cars. While these are useful in their niches, they likely are not cost-effective enough to be the main transportation mode for the vast majority of the population with the given technology. Today these new mobility options are supplements when the main mode does not solve the job to be done. In the future, that might change. Technologies allow people to do more of the same, and they allow people to do new things. It is easier to predict more of the same than new things.
    Keywords: GPS data, non-work trips, land use, axis of travel, destination choice
    JEL: L91 O31 O33 R14 R41 R42
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Antoine Bonleu (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université)
    Abstract: Why do some OECD countries have high levels of procedural formalism (PF) in the housing market? We provide an explanation based upon complementarities between the strength of social networks and the stringency of procedural formalism. The interest of social networks is that conflict resolution is independent of the law. When local people belong to social networks whereas foreigners do not, PF may facilitate housing search for locals at the expense of foreigners. To illustrate this mechanism we build a search-theoretic model of the housing market. The model emphasizes that the support for PF increases with the size of social networks, the default probability on the rent, the proportion of foreigners, and market tightness.
    Date: 2014–11
  19. By: Jessica Schoner; Greg Lindsey; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence about the role of bike share systems in travel behavior using a diffusion of innovation framework. We hypothesize that bike share systems have a contagion or spillover effect on (ð»1) propensity to start using the system and (ð»2) propensity to bicycle among the general population. We test the first hypothesis by modeling membership growth as a function of both system expansion and the existing membership base. We test the second hypothesis by using bike share activity levels near one’s home in a model of household-level bicycle participation and trip frequency. Our study shows mixed results. Bike share membership growth appears to be driven, in a small part, by a contagion effect of existing bike share members nearby. However, we did not identify a significant relationship between proximity to bike share and cycling participation or frequency among the general population. The findings hold implications for marketing, infrastructure investments, and future research about bike share innovation diffusion and spillover effects.
    Keywords: Bike Share; Diffusion of Innovation; Travel Behavior
    JEL: O33 L91 R14 R41 R42
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Kathleen Scanlon; Melissa Fernández Arrigoitia; Christine M E Whitehead
    Abstract: Social housing has been an important part in Europe’s housing provision for many decades both in terms of investment in new build and regeneration but also in providing adequate affordable housing for a wide range of European citizens. This role has been seen to be under threat especially since the 1980s as public expenditure pressures have grown, liberalisation and privatisation have become more important and alternative tenures have become more readily available.1 This paper draws out some of the most important trends in the scale of social housing in countries across Europe; clarifies who lives in the sector and under what terms and conditions, and then discusses some of the drivers behind these trends and implications for the future provision of social housing.2 In particular it addresses the extent to which social housing contributes to ensuring that households can access adequate standard accommodation at a price they can afford in different contexts within the European Union. It also looks to the challenges faced by the sector and its role in the future.
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This paper tests a group decision-making model with altruism to examine the school travel behavior of schoolchildren aged between 6 and 18 years in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. The school trip information of 1,737 two-parent families with a schoolchild is extracted from Travel Behavior Inventory data collected by the Metropolitan Council between the Fall 2010 and Spring 2012. The proposed model has four distinctive characteristics compared with traditional developed models in the field of school travel behavior including: (1) considering the schoolchild explicitly in the model, (2) allowing for bargaining or negotiation within households, (3) quantifying the intra-household interaction among family members, and (4) determining the decision weight function for household members. This framework also covers a household with three members, namely, a father, a mother, and a schoolchild, while unlike other studies is not limited to dual-worker families. To test the hypotheses, we developed two models with and without the group-decision approach. Further, the models are separately developed for different age groups, namely schoolchildren aged between 6-12 and 12-18 years. This study considered at a wide range of variables such as work status of parents, age and gender of students, mode of travel, and distance to school. The findings of this study demonstrate that the elasticities of two modeling approaches are different not only in the value, but in the sign in some cases. In more than 90 percent of the cases, further, the unitary household model overestimates the results. More precisely, the elasticities of unitary household model are as large as 2 times more than that of the group-decision model in 25 percent of cases. This is a direct consequence of model misspecification that misleads both long-term and short-term policies where the intra-household bargaining and interaction is overlooked in travel behavior models.
    Keywords: school trips, bargaining, household choice
    JEL: C35 D12 J13 R14 R41 R42 R53
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Adrien Bouguen (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: Adapting instruction to the specific needs of each student is a promising strategy to improve overall academic achievement. In this article, I study the impact of an intensive teacher training program on reading skills offered to kindergarten teachers in France. The program modifies the lesson content and encourages teachers to adapt instruction to student needs by dividing the class according to initial achievement. While assessing impact is usually difficult due to the presence of ability bias and teacher selection, I show that in this context, a value-added model that controls for school and teacher characteristics constitutes a legitimate strategy to estimate at least a low bound of the true treatment effect. Weaker students progressed faster on less-advanced competences (such as letter recognition), while stronger students improved their reading skills. This suggests that teachers adjusted content to students' needs. Finally, a cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that the program is approximately three times more cost-effective than reducing class size in France.
    Date: 2015–03
  23. By: Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried
    Abstract: We show that the size of collateralized household debt determines an economy's vulnerability to crises of confidence. The house price feeds back on itself by contributing to a liquidity effect, which operates through the value of housing in a collateral constraint. Over a specific range of debt levels this liquidity feedback effect is strong enough to give rise to multiplicity of house prices. In a dynamic setup, we conceptualize confidence as a realization of rationally entertainable belief-weightings of multiple future prices. This delivers debt-leveldependent bounds on the extent to which confidence may drive house prices and aggregate consumption.
    Keywords: Household debt, Consumer confidence, Collateral constraints, Multiple equilibria.
    JEL: E21 E32 D91
    Date: 2015–08
  24. By: Bastien Bernela (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Olivier Bouba-Olga (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Marie Ferru (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)
    Abstract: The aim of this article is to provide empirical analysis of the geographical mobility of PhDs between French regions by using long term data (1970-2000). First of all, we highlight the low mobility of PhDs: more than 60% of them supervise their first PhD in the region where they defended their own one. We then test the impact of structural determinants with a gravity model (sample selection model) and we observe in particular the influence of the scientific size of regions and spatial distance on the PhDs' mobility.
    Date: 2014–12–01
  25. By: Nikhil Jha (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: This paper examines the potential incapacitation effect on various categories of crime committed by youth offenders. I exploit exogenous variation generated by the increase in school-leaving age and compulsory education or work requirement in the state of New South Wales, Australia from 15 to 17. Using incidents of crime committed by offender of different age-group incorporates incapacitation effect on crimes that do not necessarily lead to arrests. Comparative Interrupted Time-Series analysis is used to model differential trend in crime using panel data extending several pre- and post-policy periods. Results show that the policy substantially reduced incidents of crime against property, particularly by male offenders. Classification-I28, K42
    Keywords: Education, crime
    Date: 2015–06
  26. By: Pierre-Philippe Combes (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Sylvie Démurger (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS); Shi Li (Beijing Normal University / Beijing)
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of internal migration in China on natives' labour market outcomes. We find evidence of a large positive correlation of the city share of migrants with natives' wages. Using different sets of control variables and instruments suggests that the effect is causal. The large total migrant impact (+10% when one moves from the first to the third quartile of the migrant variable distribution) arises from gains due to complementarity with natives in the production function (+6.4%), and from gains due to agglomeration economies (+3.3%). Finally, we find some evidence of a stronger effect for skilled natives than for unskilled, as expected from theory. Overall, our findings support large nominal wage gains that can be expected from further migration and urbanisation in China.
    Date: 2015–03–10
  27. By: Koen Jochmans (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Empirical models for panel data frequently feature fixed effects in both directions of the panel. Settings where this is prevalent include student-teacher interaction, the allocation of workers to firms, and the import-export flows between countries. Estimation of such fixed-effect models is difficult. We derive moment conditions for models with multiplicative unobservables and fixed effects and use them to set up generalized method of moments estimators that have good statistical properties. We estimate a gravity equation with multilateral resistance terms as an application of our methods.
    Date: 2015–02
  28. By: Ramos, Raul (University of Barcelona); Sanromá, Esteban (University of Barcelona); Simón, Hipólito (Universidad de Alicante)
    Abstract: This research examines wage differences between part-time and full-time workers using microdata from the Spanish Structure of Earnings Survey. The main contribution of the paper is related to the analysis of differences along the wage distribution using econometric decomposition methods and introducing a regional perspective. The evidence shows that part-time workers in Spain experience a significant wage disadvantage. This disadvantage is worse in the case of female workers and it is not homogenous along the wage distribution, being comparatively more relevant for the most qualified women and becoming positive for the most qualified men. However, the disadvantage is practically explained by the endowments of characteristics, with a leading role of segregation of part-time workers in low-wage firms. From a regional perspective, although in the majority of the regions wage differences tend to be explained by endowments of characteristics, there are several regions where the unexplained part of the differential is significant, particularly in the case of male workers. These regional differences seem to be related to differences in the market power of firms at the regional level.
    Keywords: part-time work, wage gap, regional differences
    JEL: J31 J22 J41 R23
    Date: 2015–08
  29. By: van Egeraat, Chris; Morgenroth, Edgar; Kroes, Rutger; Curran, Declan; Gleeson, Justin
    Abstract: Regional industrial policy emphasizes the notion of building on existing concentrations of competitive firms. A range of measures to identify such concentrations has been put forward in the literature. These however do not identify substantial concentrations which have the best potential for further development, tend to concentrate on scale measured by employment and are applied using data for pre-specified administrative boundaries. This paper presents a new concentration index that identifies substantial concentrations and utilizes information on both the number and scale of plants. It also proposes a method for generating relevant industry-specific spatial units.
    Keywords: Geographical concentration; industrial specialization; agglomeration; methodology
    JEL: C43 R12
    Date: 2015–08–12
  30. By: Fabien Moizeau (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1)
    Abstract: We study how in a city either opposite social norms remain or a particular code of behavior spreads and ultimately prevails. We develop a multicommunity model with overlapping generations. When young, an individual chooses a certain level of educational effort. The crucial feature is that the decision is influenced by peers living in the area who favor a social norm either valuing education or discrediting it. When an adult, an individual who cares about both her offspring’s expected income and the social norm chooses the family’s location. Endogenous location leads to different patterns of social norms in the city. We identify two types of urban equilibrium: a culturally-balanced city where social norms are distributed evenly among urban areas and where the rate of education is the same in each urban area and a culturally-divided city where urban areas oppose on their prevailing social norm and exhibit different rates of education. We then study the dynamics of social norms. We show that there are multiple long-run patterns of social norms. A particular steady state is achieved depending on the initial distribution support for social norms in the population. Finally, we show that a public policy promoting social integration can lead, in the long run, to a population unanimously discrediting education. Enforcing social integration can obtain less education than allowing the culturally-divided city to arise.
    Date: 2015–03
  31. By: Luc Arrondel (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)); Pierre Lamarche (BCE - Banque Centrale Européenne - BCE); Frédérique Savignac (Banque de france - Banque de France)
    Abstract: This paper studies the heterogeneity of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth using French household surveys. We find decreasing marginal propensity to consume out of wealth across the wealth distribution for all net wealth components. The marginal propensity to consume out of financial assets tends to be higher compared with the effect of housing assets, except in the top of the wealth distribution. Consumption is less sensitive to the value of the main residence than to other housing assets. We also investigate the heterogeneity arising from indebtedness and from the role of housing assets as collateral.
    Date: 2015–06
  32. By: Florin-Constantin Mihai ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University); Ana-Maria Oiste ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University); Dan-Adrian Chelaru ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University)
    Abstract: The paper examines the per capita waste generation rates from from rural areas of Neamț County (Romania) using thematic cartography. Geographical approach of this issue is difficult because the lack of a geostatistic database at commune scale. Spatial analysis of waste indicators reveals several disparities between localities. Comparability of data between communes located in various geographical conditions must be carrefully made according to local waste management systems. Several dysfunctionalities are outlined in order to compare these results, on the one hand, between localities and on the one hand, between recent years. Geographical analysis of waste generation rates is imperative for a proper monitoring of this sector. Data from 2009, 2010 and 2012 shows that rural waste management is in a full process of change towards a more organized, stable and efficient system.
    Date: 2014–06–19
  33. By: Hansen, Jörgen (Concordia University); Lkhagvasuren, Damba (Concordia University)
    Abstract: We present new evidence on the wage and mobility of young and old workers, which is difficult to explain using standard human capital theory. Instead, we propose a simple dynamic extension of the Roy model, where worker migration and wages are jointly determined at the individual level. According to this model, a higher moving cost among older workers is the main factor driving the lower mobility among this group. Because of the higher moving costs, older workers require a higher wage increase to move across regions than younger workers, a pattern that is consistent with individual-level U.S. data. We also find an interesting dynamic effect suggesting that, given a persistent labor income shock, a higher future moving cost makes workers more mobile today.
    Keywords: geographic mobility, labor mobility by age, labor income shock, moving cost, multi-sector model
    JEL: E24 J31 J61 R23
    Date: 2015–08
  34. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Risk severity in transportation network analysis is defined as the effects of a link or network failure on the whole system. Change accessibility (reduction in the number of jobs which can be reached) is used as an integrated indicator to reflect the severity of a link outage. The changes of accessibility before-and-after the removing of a freeway segment from the network represent its risk severity. The analysis in the Minneapolis - St. Paul (Twin Cities) region show that links near downtown Minneapolis have relative higher risk severity than those in rural area. The geographical distribution of links with the highest risk severity displays the property that these links tend to be near or at the intersection of freeways. Risk severity of these links based on the accessibility to jobs and to workers at different time thresholds and during different dayparts are also analyzed in the paper. The research finds that network structure measures: betweenness, straightness and closeness, help explain the severity of loss due to network outage.
    Keywords: GPS data, congestion, network structure, accessibility, vulnerability
    JEL: R14 R41 R42
    Date: 2015
  35. By: Elena Stolyarova (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Hélène Le Cadre (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Dominique Osso (EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Benoit Allibe (EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Nadia Maïzi (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris)
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the supply-side constraints that impact household choices of space heating systems in French dwellings. Based on data from the 2006 National Housing Survey and the 2013 Household Survey, we estimate discrete choice models using socio-demographic, dwelling and spatial characteristics as determinants of choice. In order to capture the supply-side constraints, we perform a post-estimation clustering based on the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which allows us to determine the groups of households that are most likely to choose each considered space heating system. The results suggest that for 2006, households living in individual houses preferred to heat space using an individual boiler, whereas those living in apartments opted for direct electric heating. In 2013 all households preferred direct electric heating, and wood heating became their second choice. The discrete choice models do not show a significant change in behavior from 2006 to 2013. The post-estimation clustering indicates that many households were strongly constrained by the conditions and characteristics of their living space in 2006. The mean probability of choosing direct electric heating or a boiler was more than 0.8 for 21% of households living in houses and for 36% living in apartments. Thus, these households did not seem to have a choice. In 2013 the supply-side constraints were weaker. The highest mean probability (0.755) is observed in the group opting for an individual boiler. We also observe an increase in the popularity of heat pump and wood heating systems.
    Date: 2015–02–04
  36. By: van Ours, Jan C.; Ward, Shannon; Williams, Jenny
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the effects of delinquency and arrest on school leaving using information on males from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. We use a multivariate mixed proportional hazard framework in order to account for common unobserved confounders and reverse causality. Our key finding is that delinquency as well as arrest leads to early school leaving. Further investigation reveals that the effect of delinquency is largely driven by income generating crimes, and the effect of both income generating crime and arrest are greater when onset occurs at younger ages. These findings are consistent with a criminal capital accumulation mechanism. On the basis of our sample, we show that taking into account the proportion of young men affected by delinquency and arrest, that the overall reduction in education due to delinquency is at least as large as the reduction due to arrest. This highlights the need for crime prevention efforts to extend beyond youth who come into contact with the justice system.
    Keywords: arrest; delinquency; duration models; education
    JEL: C4 D0 I2 K4
    Date: 2015–08
  37. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This study measures the variability of job accessibility via automobile for the Minneapolis-St. Paul region. The accessibility analysis uses cumulative opportunity measures. The travel times on the network are tested at various level (10th percentile speed, 50th percentile speed, 90th percentile speed) using the TomTom speed data for 2010. It is shown that accessibility varies widely day-to-day as travel speeds on the network vary. Some parts of the region (a ring around the core) have more volatility in accessibility (and are thus less reliable) than others.
    Keywords: GPS data, congestion, network structure, accessibility, reliability
    JEL: R14 R41 R42
    Date: 2015
  38. By: Yves Crozet
    Abstract: France embarked on high-speed rail travel almost 40 years ago. Today it carries more passengers by far on its high-speed trains than any other European country. Regarded as something of a niche activity initially, high-speed rail has become a national priority in France as evidenced by its 1 900-km network of high-speed lines (LGV). The lines currently under construction will bring this total to 2 600 by 2017.
    Date: 2013–12–13
  39. By: Patrick Guillaumont (FERDI-CERDI - FERDI-CERDI); Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: Because of the small demographic and economic size of most African countries, the great need for regional integration in Africa is widely recognised. The shortfall in regional infrastructure, be that in telecommunications, transport, or energy supplies, contributes to the low amount of transactions between African countries (even neighbouring countries), and to their relatively low economic growth rates. A recent study on the potential economic gains of more integration of countries within certain African country groupings evaluates these gains to be close to 2%.
    Date: 2014–10–01
  40. By: Florent Sari (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS); Yannick L'Horty (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)
    Abstract: Parisian jobseekers present an abnormally high risk of long-term unemployment, all things being equal. It is a phenomenon specific to Paris and districts closest to the centre. This is a paradox in a job market particularly dense and active. In this article, we propose an explanation which combines the essentials of two mechanisms, Skill Mismatch and Spatial Mismatch. It is because Parisian jobseekers are geographically far from the jobs that suit their profiles that they present a high risk of long-term unemployment. This explanation is corroborated by a model of spatial regimes and correlated errors on the Ile-de-France data and local durations of unemployment
    Date: 2015
  41. By: Bárcena Ruiz, Juan Carlos; Casado Izaga, Francisco Javier
    Keywords: zoning, spatial, competition, location, choice
    JEL: L13 R32 R38
    Date: 2015
  42. By: Raymond P. Guiteras; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
    Abstract: Comprehensive evaluation requires tracking indirect effects of interventions, such as politicians and constituents reacting to the arrival of a development program. We study political economy responses to a large scale intervention in Bangladesh, where 346 communities consisting of 16,600 households were randomly assigned to control, information or subsidy treatments to encourage investments in improved sanitation. In one intervention where the leaders’ role in program allocation was not clear to constituents, leaders react by spending more time in treatment areas, and treated constituents appear to attribute credit to their local leader for a randomly assigned program. In contrast, in another lottery where subsidy assignment is clearly and transparently random, the lottery winners do not attribute any extra credit to the politician relative to lottery losers. These reactions are consistent with a model in which constituents have imperfect information about leader ability. A third intervention returns to a random subset of treated households to inform them that the program was externally funded and randomly assigned. This simple, scalable information treatment eliminates the excess credit that leaders received in villages that received subsidies. These results suggest that while politicians may respond to try to take credit for development programs, it is not easy for them do so. Political accountability is not easily undermined by development aid.
    JEL: O1 O43 P16 Q56
    Date: 2015–07
  43. By: Best, Michael Carlos (Stanford University); Cloyne, James (Bank of England); Ilzetzki, Ethan (London School of Economics); Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using a novel source of quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, we study the response of household debt and intertemporal consumption allocation to interest rates. We also develop a new approach to structurally estimate the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution (EIS). In the United Kingdom, the mortgage interest rate schedule features discrete jumps — notches — at thresholds for the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, creating strong incentives for bunching below those thresholds. We document large and sharp bunching below every notch, which translates into sizable interest elasticities of mortgage debt, between 0.1 and 1.4 across different LTV levels. We develop a dynamic model that links these reduced-form responses to the underlying structural EIS. The EIS is much smaller and less heterogeneous than the reduced-form elasticities, between 0.05-0.25 across LTV levels and household types. We show that our structural approach is robust to a wide range of assumptions on beliefs about the future, uncertainty, risk aversion, discount factors and present bias. Our findings have implications for the numerous calibration studies in economics that rely on larger values of the EIS.
    Keywords: Interest rates; mortgage debt; elasticity of intertemporal substitution; notches.
    JEL: D14 D91 E21 E43 G21 R22
    Date: 2015–08–14
  44. By: Rinzler, Dan (Low Income Investment Fund); Tegeler, Philip (Poverty & Race Research Action Council); Cunningham, Mary (Urban Institute); Pollack, Craig (Johns Hopkins School of Medicine)
    Abstract: Families who use housing vouchers to move from areas of concentrated poverty to better-resourced neighborhoods have been shown to experience higher earnings and improved health. Housing mobility programs increase the effectiveness of housing vouchers by providing education and support to voucher holders facing barriers to such “opportunity” moves. This working paper proposes using a Pay for Success financing mechanism to increase investment in housing mobility programs based on the hypothesis that health care savings stemming from a positive mobility outcome—specifically related to diabetes and obesity— are sufficient to pay the entire cost of the mobility program. The authors draw on a unique dataset and use a dose-response model to produce four potential health savings scenarios that vary the expected effect timing (when health actually improves). Even the most conservative scenario generates sufficient projected health care cost savings to pay for the housing mobility program’s costs within a ten-year timeframe.
    Date: 2015–08–11
  45. By: Yann Bramoullé (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Rachel Kranton (Duke University, Department of Economics - Duke University (Durham, USA))
    Abstract: This chapter studies games played on fixed networks. These games capture a wide variety of economic settings including local public goods, peer effects, and technology adoption. We establish a common analytical framework to study a wide game class. We unearth new connections between games in the literature and in particular between those with binary actions, like coordination and best-shot games, and those with continuous actions and linear best replies. We review and advance existing results by showing how they tie together within the common framework. We discuss the game-theoretic underpinnings of key notions including Bonacich centrality, maximal independent sets, and the lowest and largest eigenvalue. We study the interplay of individual heterogeneity and the network and we develop a new notion - interdependence - to analyze how a shock to one agent affects the action of another agent. We outline directions for future research.
    Date: 2015–03
  46. By: Deininger,Klaus W.; Jin,Songqing; Liu,Shouying; Shao,Ting; Xia,Fang
    Abstract: As part of a national experiment, in 2008 Chengdu prefecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms, including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate labor market restrictions. This study uses a discontinuity design with spatial fixed effects to compare 529 villages just inside and outside the prefecture?s border. The results suggest that the reforms increased tenure security, aligned land use closer to economic incentives, mainly through market transfers, and led to an increase in enterprise start-ups. These impacts, most of which are more pronounced for villages with lower travel time to Chengdu city, point toward high potential gains from factor market reform.
    Keywords: Municipal Housing and Land,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Land and Real Estate Development
    Date: 2015–08–11
  47. By: Christian Desmaris (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE], IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon)
    Abstract: This note explains how the Swiss railway reform had succeeded to introduce good results both for taxpayers and for travelers. Unlike the European Commission pattern, this reform does not promote competition.
    Date: 2014
  48. By: Jehiel, Philippe; Lamy, Laurent
    Abstract: We revisit the Tiebout hypothesis in a world in which agents may possess private information as to how they value the various public goods in the various locations, and jurisdictions are free to choose whatever mechanism to attract citizens possibly after making some investments. It is shown that efficiency can be achieved as a competitive equilibrium when jurisdictions seek to maximize local revenues but not necessarily when they seek to maximize local welfare. Limitations of the result are discussed.
    Keywords: competing exchange platforms; competing mechanisms; endogenous entry; free riding; local public goods; mechanism design; Tiebout hypothesis
    JEL: D82 H4
    Date: 2015–08
  49. By: Walid Oueslati (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage, AGROCAMPUS OUEST [Le Rheu] - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Julien Salanié (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS); Junjie Wu (Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University - Oregon State University (USA) - Oregon State University (USA))
    Abstract: Urbanization presents both opportunities and challenges to agriculture. This paper analyzes the effect of urbanization on the structure and profitability of agriculture at the rural-urban fringe. We develop a theoretical model accounting for changes in the amount of urban development, the level of fragmentation, and population density associated with urbanization. We show that urbanization not only affects the land allocation between traditional and highvalue crops, but also changes relative input and output prices for the two types of crops. We conduct an empirical analysis to estimate the effect of increasing population density and urban fragmentation on farm returns for a set of European metropolises using a Bayesian averaged model that deals with model uncertainty. Our results show that increasing population density increases farm returns while increasing land fragmentation may have a detrimental effect in the beginning but a positive effect for high levels of fragmentation.
    Date: 2014
  50. By: Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme (Department of finance, insurance and real estate - Universite Laval (Quebec)); Michel Baroni (Finance Department - Essec Business School); Fabrice Barthélémy (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS); Mahdi Mokrane (LaSalle Investment Management - LaSalle Investment Management)
    Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to exhibit the impacts of lease duration and lease break options on the optimal holding period for a real estate asset or portfolio Methodology / approach We use a Monte Carlo simulation framework to simulate a real estate assets cash-flows in which lease structures (rents indexation patterns overall lease duration and break options) are explicitly taken into account. We assume that a tenant exercises his/her option to break a lease if the rent paid as higher than the market rental value of similar properties. We also model vacancy duration stochastically using Poisson's law. Finally capital values and market rental values are simulated using specific stochastic processes. and are also assumed to be correlated. We derive the optimal holding period for the asset as the value that maximises its discounted value. which is the sum of the discounted free cash flows and the discounted terminal Findings We demonstrate that. consistent with existing capital markets literature and real estate business practice. break-options in leases can dramatically alter optimal holding periods for real estate assets and portfolios by extension. We show that. everything else being equal. shorter lease durations. higher market rental value volatility. increasing negative rental reversion. higher vacancy duration. more break options. all tend to decrease the optimal holding period of a real estate asset. The converse is also true. Practical implications Practitioners are insights as well as a practical methodology for determining the ex-ame optimal holding period for an asset or a portfolio based on a number of market and asset specific parameters including the lease structure. Originality / value The originality of the paper derives from taking an explicit modelling approach to lease duration and lease breaks as additional sources of asset specific risk alongside market risk. This is critical in real estate portfolio management because such specific risk is usually difficult to diversify.
    Date: 2014

This nep-ure issue is ©2015 by Steve Ross. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.